Posts

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

12.55 Kempton : Ericht @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Jumped left at times, tracked leaders, left in 2nd place 6th, lost 2nd 8th, outpaced and never going from next, tailed off

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old was a winner last time out three weeks ago under today's jockey Nick Scholfield, who is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.43pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Plumpton since the start of 2015.

And since the start of 2008. trainer Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners within the previous 30 days, "doubled up" on 17 of 70 occasions (24.3% SR) for profits of 37.4pts (+53.4%), including...

  • those priced at 11/8 to 9/1 are 16/50 (32%) for 40.6pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16pts (+44.4%)
  • those that were Jeremy's only runner of the day are 6/29 (20.7%) for 8.33pts (+28.7%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 8/27 (29.6%) for 6.97pts (+25.8%)
  • and on Soft ground expected today : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.02pts (+50.2%)

I mentioned just there about This being Jeremy's only runner of the day and I had a closer look and found that he does pretty well when only having the one out. Since the start of 2011, 58 of his 342 (17% SR) "solo flyers" have been winners, returning level stakes profits of 244pts at a verey healthy ROI of 71.4%, of which Nock has ridden 24 winners from 162 (14.8%) for 155.9pts (+96.2%), whilst Class 4 races have seen 28 winners from 153 (18.3%) and 142.9pts (+93.4%) profits.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and about 17 others at 8.35pm on Sunday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

12.55 Kempton : Ericht @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Jumped left at times, tracked leaders, left in 2nd place 6th, lost 2nd 8th, outpaced and never going from next, tailed off

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old was a winner last time out three weeks ago under today's jockey Nick Scholfield, who is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.43pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Plumpton since the start of 2015.

And since the start of 2008. trainer Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners within the previous 30 days, "doubled up" on 17 of 70 occasions (24.3% SR) for profits of 37.4pts (+53.4%), including...

  • those priced at 11/8 to 9/1 are 16/50 (32%) for 40.6pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16pts (+44.4%)
  • those that were Jeremy's only runner of the day are 6/29 (20.7%) for 8.33pts (+28.7%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 8/27 (29.6%) for 6.97pts (+25.8%)
  • and on Soft ground expected today : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.02pts (+50.2%)

I mentioned just there about This being Jeremy's only runner of the day and I had a closer look and found that he does pretty well when only having the one out. Since the start of 2011, 58 of his 342 (17% SR) "solo flyers" have been winners, returning level stakes profits of 244pts at a verey healthy ROI of 71.4%, of which Nock has ridden 24 winners from 162 (14.8%) for 155.9pts (+96.2%), whilst Class 4 races have seen 28 winners from 153 (18.3%) and 142.9pts (+93.4%) profits.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and about 17 others at 8.35pm on Sunday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2017

Friday's Result :

2.30 Lingfield : Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, soon joined, headed final strides

Saturday's pick goes in the...

12.55 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ericht @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

He comes here boasting excellent credentials for the task ahead, having won 3 of his 6 runs here at Kempton, as well having 6 wins on Good to Soft / Soft ground, 5 wins under Barry Geraghty, 5 wins going right handed and 4 wins at 2m4f/2m5f.

On top of all that, he has the benefit of being trained by Nicky Henderson, who has certainly started the new year in fine style, with 11 winners from 27 (40.7%), whilst here at Kempton he is 129/437 (29.5% SR) for 167.8pts (+38.4% ROI) since 2008.

That's consistent long-term profit year on year and in respect of today's race, those 437 runners are...

  • males : 116/388 (29.9%) for 138.6pts (+35.7%)
  • during the December to April months : 102/343 (29.7%) for 188.2pts (+54.9%)
  • ridden by Barry Geraghty : 70/202 (34.7%) for 53.5pts (+26.5%)
  • in handicaps : 30/158 (19%) for 128.3pts (+81.2%)
  • in chases : 44/131 (33.6%) for 39.1pts (+29.9%)
  • on good to soft : 35/112 (31.3%) for 50.2pts (+44.9%)
  • and at Class 3 : 26/95 (27.4%) for 96.2pts (+101.3%)

AND...Barry Geraghty riding a male runner in the December - April period = 29/80 (36.25% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI)

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Ericht @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and at least 9 others at 7.30pm on Friday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.10 Leicester : Midnight Jade @ 5/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, led before 4 out, held on run-in, all out to win by 1.25 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Trainer Ralph Beckett has his string in fine order at the moment, despite not sending too many out to track! 4 winners and 5 placers from 12 over the last 4 weeks represents quality over quantity and of those dozen that have braved the elements, there has been two winners and a runner-up from four sent here to Lingfield.

More longer-term, Ralph's record here on the all-weather track at Lingfield is also excellent, as you'd expect, with 48 winners from 218 (22% SR) since 2010, generating level stakes profits of 106.8pts at an ROI of 48.9%. With today's race in mind, here are a handful of profitable angles we could follow from those 218 runners...

  • those who last ran 6-60 days ago are 35/145 (24.1%) for 114.1pts (+78.7%)
  • in non-handicap races : 24/134 (17.9%) for 64.6pts (+48.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/128 (19.5%) for 84.3pts (+65.9%)
  • in maidens : 19/106 (17.9%) for 68pts (+64.2%)
  • and females are 19/99 (19.2%) for 127.6pts (+128.9%)

AND...females returning from a break of 6 to 60 days to run in a Lingfield Class 5 A/W maiden are 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 73.2pts (+385% ROI)

In addition to the above there are another couple of positives regarding this selection...

  1. Last year's Champion Apprentice Josephine Gordon will be in the saddle and not only is she very talented, but she's also in great form, having won 5 of 23 (21.7% SR) over the last week.
  2. This 3 yr old filly is by Fastnet Rock, whose offspring are 48/252 (19.1% SR) for 153.3pts (+60.8% ROI) on the A?W since the start of 2016, with Class 5 runners winning 21 of 96 (21.9%) for 106.5pts (+110.9%).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Speed Freak @ 7/2 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betbright, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.05pm on Thursday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

1.05 Taunton : Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Chased leaders, went 2nd 5th until 3 out, chased leaders, battling for modest 2nd place from 2 out, no chance with winner

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Leicester

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Jade @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

Relatively short and sweet for a change!

An 8yr old mare who has taken to chasing like a duck to water, 5 runs over the last 45 weeks or so have resulted in finishes of 12421, ending in a win LTO at Southwell a month ago.

Of her five chase starts to date, relevant facts include...

  • 2 wins and 2 places 10-40 days since her last run
  • 2 wins and a runner-up finish under today's jockey Lee Edwards
  • 1 win and a runner-up from two efforts at this Class 5 grade (although she's the same record at Class 4!)
  • 2 wins from 2 runs in the December to February period.

She's trained by John Groucott, who might not be the most prolific or well known trainer, but he does well with his handicappers with the market usually a good barometer of his chances, as since 2009, his NH handicappers at odds of 7/1 and shorter (ie SotD territory!) are 15/44 (34.1% SR) for 36.9pts (+83.9% ROI) profit, with the following of note today...

  • chasers are 13/36 (36.1%) for 34.2pts (+95%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.33pts (+62.2%)
  • LTO winners are 4/14 (28.6%) for 1.7pts (+12.1%)
  • females are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.57pts (+139.7%)
  • over 2m4f : 3/5 (60%) for 10.46pts (+209.3%)
  • here at Leicester : 2/4 (50%) for 6.66pts (+166.7%)
  • and those ridden by Lee Edwards are 2/3 (66.7%) for 10.92pts (+364.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Midnight Jade @ 5/2 BOG which was offered by a dozen firms at 6.45pm on Wednesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.15 Southwell : L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Keen, raced wide, close up, tracked leader 7f out, led over 4f out, ran on for a comfortable win by 7 lengths ahead of a well strung out field.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.05 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has acquitted himself well enough in two starts so far, finishing 3rd on debut in a bumper at Worcester back in June 2016, before becoming a runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy ground when making his hurdling debut three weeks ago.

That last run was on heavy ground,l so his stamina seems fine and it was also at a higher grade (C4) than today.  And to put that race into context, he was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the more experienced and 132-rated Robinshill, who last weekend suffered a defeat by a similar margin off 135 in a Class 2 contest at Sandown.

So, if the form pans out as I hope it will, trainer David Pipe will have another winner at Taunton, where since 2008, his 6 to 10 yr olds are 28/164 (17.1% SR) for 36.2pts (+22.1% ROI), including of note today...

  • males are 28/149 (18.8%) for 51.2pts (+34.4%)
  • hurdlers are 19/123 (15.5%) for 36.3pts (+29.5%)
  • those stepping in trip by more than 1f are 11/59 (18.6%) for 52.4pts (+88.8%)
  • and those racing over this 3m 0.5f trip are 7/26 (26.9%) for 64.1pts (+246.7%)

That stat about the step up in trip is no surprise really, as a quick look at the Trainer Snippets report tells us that over the last two years, the David Pipe runners stepping up in trip by more than 25% of the distance they last ran are 19/88 (21.6% SR) for 46.83pts (+53.2% ROI) at SP, figures which can easily be beaten by Betfair SP or BOG odds, which got me digging again!

And what I discovered what that David Pipe hurdlers stepping up in trip by 3.5f to 9f are 67/393 (17.1% SR) for 121.7pts (+31% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • 6/7 yr olds are 30/152 (19.7%) for 168.8pts (+111.1%)
  • those racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 30/143 (21%) for 155.7pts (+108.9%)
  • and like Stay Out Of Court, 6/7 yr olds racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 154.9pts (+231.1% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and a half dozen others at 6.30pm on Tuesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2017

Monday's Result :

5.05 Wolverhampton : Palenville @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Raced prominently just off the leader until the last furlong, when fading tamely to be beaten by almost 4 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.15 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner 7 days ago under today's jockey and come s here aiming to add to the successes his yard has had over the last couple of years, as trainer Iain Jardine's runners are 7/546 (14.3% SR) for 260.7pts (+47.7% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • handicappers are 62/422 (14.7%) for 263.6pts (+62.5%)
  • males are 51/355 (14.4%) for 284pts (+80%)
  • those who last ran 6-25 days ago : 51/316 (16.1%) for 214.5pts (+67.9%)
  • Class 5 : 26/171 (15.2%) for 73.7pts (+43.1%)
  • 1m3f to 2m : 35/149 (23.5%) for 179.8pts (+120.7%)
  • on the A/W : 14/108 (13%) for 56.2pts (+52.1%)
  • LTO winners : 21/65 (32.3%) for 44.5pts (+68.5%)

And if you just backed his non-NH male handicappers running within 25 days of their last outing, you'd have 30 winners from 173 (17.3%) over the two years and profits of 218.3pts at an ROI of 126.2%, including...

  • Class 5 : 12.53 (22.6%) for 94.1pts (+177.5%)
  • over 1m3f to 2m : 13/51 (25.5%) for 118.3pts (+232%)
  • on the A/W : 7/41 (17.1%) for 79.7pts (+194.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 18.3pts (+70.5%)

You could, of course, then continue to combine the above into smaller micros, but I feel it dilutes the sample size down too much to a point where 1 result (good or bad) could badly skew the figures, so I'll leave it there...

...and place...a 1pt win bet on L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG which was widely available (10 places) at 5.30pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on at that price. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

SotD Update, 2nd to 7th January 2017

My first roundup of 2017 is a happy one, as we started the new year in pretty much the same vein as we ended the last one. A run of results reading 13361F would be more than satisfactory every week and with winners at 7/2 and 9/2, it meant a 4pt profit to kick the month off to a flyer.

It also means that the last fortnight has produced 5 winners from 12 for 16.5pts profit, an ideal tonic for those of you suffering from the post-Christmas blues and a clear indication that we intend 2017 to be yet another profitable year for SotD, whilst from a landmark point of view (non-runners aside), we should be giving you our 1600th selection this week!

Selections & Results : 02/01/17 to 07/01/17

02/01 : Shimba Hills (adv 7/2 BOG) : WON at 9/4
03/01 : Proud Gamble (adv 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 7/1
04/01 : Bollihope (adv 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 2/1
05/01 : Elusive Cowboy (adv 3/1 BOG) : 6th at 9/4
06/01 : Dreams of Glory (adv 9/2 BOG) : WON at 5/2
07/01 : Fox Appeal (adv 9/2 BOG) : fell at 4/1

02/01/17 to 07/01/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +4.00pts

January 2017:
2 winners from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +4.00pts
ROI = +66.66%

Overall:
442 winners from 1597 = 27.68% S.R
P/L: +376.73pts
ROI: +23.59%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

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Stat of the Day, 9th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.05 Wincanton : Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG fell at 4/1 Close up when field came into view 6th, led narrowly when came into view again briefly 4 out

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Palenville @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A quick look at the Trainer Snippets 2yr report on Geegeez Gold suggested to me that Simon Crisford's A/W runners were worth a second look, especially his handicappers and with a career record of 27 from 127 (21.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 29.6pts at an ROI of 23.3%, it's an excellent pointer.

Of those 127 runners...

  • handicappers are 15/60 (25%) for 27.4pts (+45.7%)
  • here at Wolverhampton, its 11/32 (34.4%) for 10.78pts (+33.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 13.57pts (+67.8%)
  • and in Wolverhampton handicaps : 7/18 (38.9%) for 14.24pts (+79.1%)

Palenville comes here in decent if not quite sparkling form, having made the frame in each of her last three runs (232), the latest coming as a runner-up at Kempton 26 days ago when she probably needed the run after an absence of 133 days, she's entitled to come on for having had the run.

She also becomes of interest in her own right, because since 2013 here at Wolverhampton over 6 and 7 furlongs, 4 & 5 yr olds who finished second or third in each of their last two starts and have been rested for at least 11 days since they last ran, are 21 from 88 (23.9% SR) for 68.1pts (+77.4% ROI) with the following of relevance today...

  • handicappers are 18/74 (24.3%) for 66.2pts (+89.4%)
  • on Tapeta : 13/54 (24.1%) for 48.6pts (+89.9%)
  • over 7f : 16/50 (32%) for 61.5pts (+123%)
  • at class 5 : 9/32 (28.1%) for 21.5pts (+67.1%)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Palenville @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.05 Wincanton : Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG fell at 4/1 Close up when field came into view 6th, led narrowly when came into view again briefly 4 out

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Palenville @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

A quick look at the Trainer Snippets 2yr report on Geegeez Gold suggested to me that Simon Crisford's A/W runners were worth a second look, especially his handicappers and with a career record of 27 from 127 (21.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 29.6pts at an ROI of 23.3%, it's an excellent pointer.

Of those 127 runners...

  • handicappers are 15/60 (25%) for 27.4pts (+45.7%)
  • here at Wolverhampton, its 11/32 (34.4%) for 10.78pts (+33.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 13.57pts (+67.8%)
  • and in Wolverhampton handicaps : 7/18 (38.9%) for 14.24pts (+79.1%)

Palenville comes here in decent if not quite sparkling form, having made the frame in each of her last three runs (232), the latest coming as a runner-up at Kempton 26 days ago when she probably needed the run after an absence of 133 days, she's entitled to come on for having had the run.

She also becomes of interest in her own right, because since 2013 here at Wolverhampton over 6 and 7 furlongs, 4 & 5 yr olds who finished second or third in each of their last two starts and have been rested for at least 11 days since they last ran, are 21 from 88 (23.9% SR) for 68.1pts (+77.4% ROI) with the following of relevance today...

  • handicappers are 18/74 (24.3%) for 66.2pts (+89.4%)
  • on Tapeta : 13/54 (24.1%) for 48.6pts (+89.9%)
  • over 7f : 16/50 (32%) for 61.5pts (+123%)
  • at class 5 : 9/32 (28.1%) for 21.5pts (+67.1%)

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Palenville @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2017

Friday's Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG WON at 5/2 Chased leaders, went 2nd well over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by a neck.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.05 Wincanton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

He might be 10 yrs old now, but he's in good form, coming here off the back of a win last time out, 17 days ago.

He's trained by Emma Lavelle, who is 17 from 89 (19.1% SR) for 22pts at an ROI of 24.7% here at Wincanton since 2010.

In addition to that, his case is strengthened by the fact that since 2010, in NH handicap chases, where the top weight is ridden by a 3lb claimer and remains top weight after all jockey claims are considered, there has been 90 winners from 486 (18.5% SR) for 56.4pts (+11.6% ROI) of level stakes profits, including...

  • 69/309 (22.3%) for 106.2pts (+34.4%) over trips of 2m2f to 3m1.5f
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 39pts (+44.9%) from LTO winners
  • 13/67 (19.4%) for 22.6pts (+33.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • and 3 from 15 (20%) for 14.1pts (+94%) here at Wincanton.

And finally, handicap chasers priced at 11/8 to 8/1, 11-25 days after a win LTO that was preceded by a run of 3 or more successive unplaced efforts are 108/442 (24.4% SR) for 103.8pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2010.

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Fox Appeal @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betway, 32Red and 888 Sport at 6.25pm on Friday, although the last two are non-BOG.

There was plenty of 4/1 BOG available elsewhere though and in the interests of fairness and transparency, I'll be settling up at 4/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.00 Wolverhampton : Elusive Cowboy @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 9/4 Tracked leaders, chased clear leader 5f out until ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong

Friday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a runner-up when last seen, 10 days ago and is also a former course and distance winner, so he should be comfortable enough with the task ahead.

He's trained by Ron Hodges, whose runners are 32/314 (10.2% SR) for 164pts (+52.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps since 2008, with the following of particular relevance today...

  • those who last ran 4-75 days ago are 29/271 (10.7%) for 156.1pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 6 : 19/190 (10%) for 61.1pts (+32.1%)
  • during November to February : 20/163 (12.3%) for 178.2pts (+109.3%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 16/141 (11.4%) for 46.9pts (+33.3%)
  • over 5f : 5/44 (11.4%) for 48.3pts (+109.8%)
  • 9 to 11 yr olds : 4/32 (12.5%) for 29.22pts (+91.3%)

ALSO...Ron's runners who finished in the first four home LTO, 4 to 15 days ago are 34/176 (19.3% SR) for 58.3pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2010, including...

  • 33/164 (20.1%) for 59.4pts (+36.2%) in handicaps
  • 24/87 (27.6%) for 77.8pts (+89.4%) 4-10 days since their last run
  • 12/61 (19.7%) for 31.5pts (+51.6%) at Class 6
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 58.1pts (+135.1%) on the A/W
  • 7/36 (19.4%) for 9pts (+25%) from LTO runners-up
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 37.9pts (+108.3%) over 5/5.5f
  • and 6/26 (23.1%) for 30.3pts (+116.6%) here at Wolverhampton

AND finally... this horse is top rated on the Geegeez Speed Ratings for this race (see here for details) and since Matt started to log the top rated 5f runners on the forum, 20 of 141 (14.2% SR) have won and you can read all about that right here. And further analysis shows that top-rated runners over 5f on the A/W have a 22% strike rate over the last 5yrs (175 winners from 794)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Dreams of Glory @ 9/2 BOG which was available from both Bet365 and BetVictor at 5.35pm on Thursday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.35 Newcastle : Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 2/1 Steadied and switched left start, took keen hold in last pair, hung badly left and rider lost a rein making him unable to ride effectively from 3f out, stayed on into 3rd well inside final furlong, nearest finish but never able to challenge, beaten by just over half a length

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elusive Cowboy @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Finished third on his second start, but then failed to make the frame in any of his next four outings, before being given a Wolverhampton debut 10 days ago, when he won relatively comfortably here by a length and a quarter, having led from 2 furlongs out under today's jockey Stephen Donohoe.

He's up 6lbs for that win, but gets a 6lb weight allowance here today due to his age, so he should be competitive once again and this sudden improvement in form isn't rare on the A/W and over the last 9 years, horses priced at 10/11 to 11/2 in A/W handicaps here at Wolverhampton, running within 30 days of an LTO A/W win that was preceded by a run of 3 or unplaced efforts are 120/422 (28.4% SR) for 80.4pts (+19.1% ROI) profit.

And of those 422 runners...

  • those with at least 5 days rest are 109/378 (28.8%) for 79pts (+20.9%)
  • males are 90/319 (28.2%) for 61.8pts (+19.4%)
  • those who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 81/268 (30.2%) for 98.3pts (+36.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 38/122 (31.2%) for 41.9pts (+34.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 32/109 (29.4%) for 26.5pts (+24.3%)
  • at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f : 25/59 (42.4%) for 34.8pts (+59%)
  • at this 1m6f course and distance : 9/18 (50%) for 14.7pts (+81.7%)
  • those up in trip by 2f are 9/15 (60%) for 21pts (+140.2%)

He's by Elusive Quality, whose offspring are 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 34.4pts (+60.4% ROI) on the Tapeta over the last two years, including...

  • 11/50 (22%) for 36.8pts (+73.6%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 40.9pts (+90.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 24.6pts (+87.7%) at Class 5
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 35.6pts (+131.8%) after a break of 3-20 days
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.8pts (+211.2%) in Wolverhampton handicaps, 3-20 after their last run
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.4pts (+306.3%) from LTO winners.

..giving us...a 1pt win bet on Elusive Cowboy @ 3/1 BOG which was available in at least a dozen places (so we should all get the same price!) at 5.45pm on Monday. However, if you're able (and/or quick enough) Bet365 were offering 100/30 BOG and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.30 Musselburgh : Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/1 Tracked leaders, ridden before 4 out, kept on but beaten by 4.5 lengths.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Newcastle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Jockey Connor Beasley is 34 from 203 (16.75% SR) for 34.7pts (+17.1% ROI) when riding for trainer Richard Guest, which is a decent starting point to build a bet, as of those 203 rides, the partnership are...

  • 14/71 (19.7%) for 23.2pts (+32.7%) on the All-Weather
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 20.6pts (+68.8%) here at Newcastle
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 2.2pts (+7.5%) on Tapeta
  • 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%) over this 1m2f trip
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 7.2pts (+29.9%) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.57pts (+252.3%) over this tapeta course and distance

And if that wasn't enough to whet the appetite, they come together with just one horse today : Bollihope, who is more than proven at the task he faces here.

To date, he has 3 wins from 9 (33.3% SR) for profits of 23.56pts (+261.8% ROI) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 26.56pts (+442.7%) going left handed
  • 3 from 5 (60%) for 27.56pts (+551.3%) on tapeta
  • 3 from 5 (60%) for 27.56pts (+551.3%) over 1m 2f
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 29.56pts (+985.5%) here at Newcastle
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 29.56pts (+985.5%) over course and distance
  • 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.57pts (+164.2%) under Connor Beasley
  • 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 7.57pts (+252.3%) at Class 5
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 8.57pts (+428.5%) under Connor Beasley over course and distance.

..giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bollihope @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports and a half dozen others (so we should all get the same price!) at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2017

Monday's Result :

3.50 Plumpton : Shimba Hills @ 7/2 BOG WON at 9/4 Held up in last pair, smooth headway on wide outside tracking leaders before 3 out, 2nd between last two, ridden to lead run-in, driven out to win by a half length.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.30 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Quite often I give you lots of data around the past performance of trainers and jockeys and the breeding of a horse, which all then suggest that chosen runner will perform well under the race conditions ahead. Today is slightly different, because I've chosen a horse proven in the type of race he'll face.

I suppose it's the old horses for courses adage. Anyway Proud Gamble has won four of his twenty starts to date, which is decent, but unspectacular, yet when we see that his record in non-novice handicap chases is 4 wins and 3 places from 12 (33.3% win SR) for level stakes profits of 11.95pts at an ROI of 99.6%, then I'm suddenly interested.

A closer look at those 12 experiences have prepared him for today tells us that he is...

  • 4 from 10 (40%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%) over 2m7.5f/3m
  • 4 from 10 (40%) for 13.95pts (+139.5%) at 6 to 45 days after his last run
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.35pts (+53.5%) under jockey Craig Nichol
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 15.95pts (+199.4%) in the August to February period
  • 4 from 8 (50%) for 15.95pts (+199.4%) going right handed
  • 4 from 6 (66.7%) for 17.95pts (+299.2%) at odds of 13/2 and shorter
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 12.01pts (+200.2%) on Good ground
  • 3 from 6 (50%) for 9.35pts (+155.8%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 5.41pts (+135.25%) at Class 4.

AND...from the above over 2m7.5f/3m at odds of 13/2 and shorter, 6-45 days since he last ran, going right handed in August to February, he is 4 from 5 (80%) for 18.95pts (+379% ROI).

Of those 5 races, he is 3/4 under Craig Nichol, 3/4 here at Musselburgh, 3/4 on Good ground and 2/2 at Class 4.

Which leads to a 2 from 2 record for 7.41pts profit under today's conditions where he runs in a Class 4 handicap chase here at Musselburgh on good ground under Craig Nichol over 2m7.5f/3m at odds of 13/2 and shorter, 6-45 days since he last ran, going right handed in August to February!

...making it worth...a 1pt win bet on Proud Gamble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 15 others (so we should all get the same price!) at 6.50pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard