Posts

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.30 Southwell : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2 (Mid-division, travelled well at halfway, mistake and unseated rider 11th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 9-runner, Class 2,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good To Soft ground worth £15,562 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

First port of call is our racecard...

and then The Shortlist report...

...which all tells us that our jockey has a good record at this track, especially with today's trainer and that our horse should be well suited by conditions.

This 4 yr old gelding was only held off by a neck when headed late on over this trip at Sandown 13 days ago, off the same mark as today. He'd had to race wide in a 15 runner contest that day, so this smaller field will hopefully help him stay closer to the action, as it has in the past.

He has won 5 of 12 Flat handicaps to date, a decent enough record that includes of relevance today...

  • 5 from 8 over a mile
  • 4 from 7 at odds of 3/1 to 8/1
  • 4 from 5 in fields of 7 to 10 runners
  • 3 from 5 after 11-20 days rest
  • 3 from 5 on a straight run
  • and 1 from 1 in sub-£20k Class 2 contests

And now we'll look at that trainer/jockey/course snippet from above, because I find this rather interesting today. Quite often, a jockey relies on a certain trainer for "good rides", but here at Ascot, it seems that it's the other way round and our trainer Eve Johnson Houghton can't seem to buy a winner here at Ascot, unless Charlie Bishop is available.

Let me explain this theory. We start with Eve's pretty poor record here at Ascot, which currently reads...

with the Betfair SP profits of 31.03pts skewed by a winner at 60.00. In the last six years, she has had six winners here, all ridden by Charlie Bishop, who only started riding for her three years ago, meaning she'd gone three years without an Ascot winner until Charlie's appearance. In fact, without Charlie, her Ascot numbers are...

and that's fairly dismal stuff, isn't it? Yet, in the last three years, the trainer/jockey/track stats are...

...which despite still containing that 60.00 winner are very good figures indeed.

So now we've established the success of the partnership, we can how they've performed in similar conditions to today, so from that 6/25 record here, Eve & Charlie are...

  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 83.7pts (+440.6%) with 2-4 yr olds
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 80.1pts (+421.4%) with male runners
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.9pts (+170.5%) with runners placed LTO
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.72pts (+106%) in races worth less than £16,500
  • 4/4 (100%) for 20.72pts (+518%) with runners sent off at odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 23.4pts (+468%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 24.4pts (+610%) with horses rested for just 11-15 days...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!