Posts

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.35 Pontefract : Squelch @ 7/2 BOG non-runner 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We're guided by the racecard today, as is often the case...

...an in-form trainer and jockey who both do well at this track and bring a horse top-rated on the speed ratings to run today.

The 14, 30, C1 and C5 are the base of our bet today, so let's take a closer look...

Over the last 30 days, trainer Karen Tutty's runners are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 44.29pts (+402.6% ROI) with jockey Gemma's record over the same period standing at 3 from 10 (30%) for 45.29pts (+452.9%), all for trainer Karen.

Over the last fortnight, they are 2 from 6 (33.3% SR) for 11.24pts (+187.3% ROI).

More longer-term ie since 2015, Trainer Karen has had 16 winners from 92 (17.4% SR) for 55.16pts (+60% ROI) here at Beverley, which are excellent figures and contain the following baker's dozen snippets of relevance today...

    • 16/81 (19.8%) for 66.16pts (+81.7%) over trips of 7.5f and beyond
    • 16/70 (22.9%) for 77.16pts (+110.2%) with a jockey claiming 3 or 5 lbs
    • 15/73 (20.6%) for 69.01pts (+94.5%) with male runners
    • 13/80 (16.3%) for 50.19pts (+62.7%) in handicaps
    • 13/70 (18.6%) for 58.03pts (+82.9%) with runners unplaced last time out
    • 13/63 (20.6%) for 70.64pts (+112.1%) in 9-13 runner contests
    • 13/66 (19.7%) for 69.05pts (+104.6%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
    • 12/69 (17.4%) for 39.5pts (+57.3%) for Gemma Tutty
    • 12/49 (24.5%) for 58.81pts (+120%) on Good to Firm
    • 11/53 (20.75%) for 49.68pts (+93.7%) in 3yo+ races
    • 11/27 (40.7%) for 37.34pts (+138.3%) at odds ranging from 2/1 to 7/1
    • 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.41pts (+67.9%) in July
    • and 7/43 (16.3%) for 12.62pts (+29.4%) at class 6.

And there are more angles I could quote, but neither of us have all day to type/read them! However if you wanted to combine some of the above...

...then males with less than 3 weeks rest after an unplaced run LTO sent back out to be ridden by a 3/5lb claimer in a 9-13 runner handicap over 7.5 furlongs or further are 10 from 26 (38.5% SR) for 84.8pts (+326.7% ROI), from which Gemma has ridden 6 winners from 22 for 50.18pts profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.