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Stat of the Day, 9th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Newton Abbot : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Led 1st, headed after 3 out, no extra 2 out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4,  A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, the racecard would suggest we've a fighting chance here...

...with a 4 yr old who loves this track, tops the Geegeez ratings and will be ridden by an in-form jockey. All of that, however, is pretty self explanatory by the way we lay it out on the cards.

So, I'll focus on my own "AW Stay" angle for my data today and this basically refers to a group of trainers (six in total) who I keep an eye out for in longer distance A/W handicaps : many of my personal angles really are that simple!

In trainer William Knight's case, my starting point is any such race over a trip of 1m3f and beyond, which since 2015 has given us...

... a 1 in 5 strike rate at an A/E of 1.37 and a profit at Betfair SP of almost 93p for every pound wagered. These are exceptional numbers when you consider we're approaching almost 200 runners over a decent time frame and closer analysis of those 185 runners when faced with similar conditions to today reveals the following dozen ways Mr Knight got his 37 winners...

  • 34/144 (23.6%) for 152.87pts (+106.2%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 33/160 (20.6%) for 132.64pts (+82.9%) from male runners
  • 30/113 (26.6%) for 148.96pts (+131.8%) with 3-5 yr olds
  • 26/108 (24.1%) for 153.78pts (+142.4%) ran on the A/W LTO
  • 24/126 (19.1%) for 151.26pts (+120.1%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/49 (42.9%) for 30.06pts (+61.4%) sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 19/74 (25.7%) for 84.14pts (+113.7%) at trips of 1m6f and beyond
  • 18/58 (31%) for 117.9pts (+203.3%) at Class 4
  • 12/61 (19.7%) for 42.13pts (+69.1%) during August to October
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 27.67pts (+120.3%) on Tapeta
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.65pts (+92.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 8.52pts (+142.1%) over today's 1m6f trip...

...whilst 3-5 yr old males competing for less than £8k at 6-45 days after a run on the A/W LTO are...

...and although I'm wary of over-diluting the sample size, it's worth noting (IMO, at least), that this smaller set of 35 runners includes...

  • 10/16 (62.5%) for 57.34pts (+358.4%) at 1m6f and beyond
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 14.58pts (+76.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 6/12 (50%) for 41.89pts (+349.1%) at Class 4
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.71pts (+437.1%) in September & October...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!