Genesis of a Betting System (Part 5)

Part 5 brings us to October, and the changing of the seasons, a time when the forum systemites - or system forumites - have high hopes of yielding higher profits...

If you need to catch up, Part 1 can be read here, Part 2 herePart 3 here, and Part 4 here.


Ray Thompson

Small profit yesterday from the First and Last at Kem AW with Red Cossack at 25 and Isdaal at 55, plus Whisky Galore at Sligo, EP 20/1 (32) won at 12/1. Isdaal ran from the wrong stall btw, with no word from the Stewards room afterwards. Perhaps they didn’t notice what they’re paid to notice? Whisky Galore was a jumps bet, which I failed to notice wasn’t posted here 🙂
No shows from my 32 selections at Nottingham, which is a bit surprising as it’s one of the top system venues with 30 outsider winners last season (2014).

Today we have Beverley – only seven winners last year BUT two of them returned 120 and 65 with Bf.

Chelmsford (Cfd) is in it’s first year as an official track and it’s markedly different to the track (Great Leighs) it replaced, but we do have results for this year and it appears to be similar to every other track: 5 wins at 25, 50, 48, 34 and 25 in the first few weeks of the season (late March to early May), only one win in June (16/1 = 24) and many meetings but ZERO wins until September, when strikes at 16/1 (30), 16/1 (32), 16/1 (23), 25/1 (50) and 16/1 (22) brought the track back into being profitable.

The other three venues are jumps meetings, for which I’ll give you my system selections with the relevant data for each track in previous years and the knowledge that the regular big winners usually commence in November.

Bangor outsiders generally arrive regularly in Nov + Dec then disappear until near the end of the jumps season. Bangor is +153 points (82 Chase, 71 Hurdle)

Clonmel has a strong big-priced strike rate in March and April +42 points (-3 Chs, +45 Hdl)

Warwick’s favoured period for the rags is Dec-Mar when +48 pts (+12 Chs, +36 Hdl)

That probably doesn’t look too inviting, but random outsider wins do occur er… randomly?… other months

I have four at Bangor, Camachoice and Maoi Chinn Tire in the 3.25 and Miss Tiger Lily and Omgnotanother. A further 16 at Clonmel and ten at Warwick make up my jumps bets for today. I haven’t finalised my summer flat bets yet, but there are 21 at Bev. Cfd is the venue I’m struggling with to not have too many bets, but it all looks good so far (FLW).

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Minus 78 points yesterday with not a single winner puts a dent in the bank. Here we are today hoping the Saturday Curse doesn’t strike! I’m just about to look at the cards and I’ll come back to you with what I’m doing when I’ve sorted out the possibilities.

P.S. Just noticed that my post from yesterday isn’t here. I suspect that I wrote it all out then forgot to hit the submit button! Another senior moment… 🙁

Steve Walmsley

Time for an update on 2 full months of data.

Headlines First (detailed analysis to follow later)

Flat Handicaps (incl. AW) from 1 August to 30 September
All bets at Betfair Minimum £2.00

Total Nr of Bets: 2525
Winners: 111
Total Staked: £5050.00
Profit at BFSP: £617.70

More than respectable results, but there are some horrendous downswings, the most extreme was a loss of 219 points (£438.00) in a 10 day period between 14 and 24 September.

Thanks Ray, £300 per month for 10 minutes a day and almost zero effort seems like a good deal.

Ray Thompson

Cheers, Steve. The hard bit was working out what, when and how, but once that was done it’s pretty much a doddle. Steve said a while ago that the way to go is to just back everything eligible in each race, and while I’m inclined to agree I still have a gut feeling there’s something not yet right. I thought initially that really strong faves, 5/4 and less, really knocked the stuffing out of the usual suspects, but on closer inspection it becomes clear that the tighter the favourite, the BIGGER the other prices. So okay, you might lose a dozen or more due to odds-on shots, but when you beat those yukky faves it’s often those biggies – 25s, 33s 50s and more that just wipe out all those losses in an instant, particularly when the BFSP can be double, treble and more than ISP.

Yesterday was nice with two at Gowran and Nolecce in the last at Wolves. We’ve only got jumps today and 35 contenders over four courses should return something. Huntingdon has been good to me over the years with last year’s +60 points on Hurdles and “only” +13 on Chases (+346.75 to fivers), Kelso +29 Hurdles and +17 Chases, Tipperary +94 Hurdles, +16 Chases, and Utt +105 Hdls but MINUS a whole 2 points on Chases!

I’m off car-booting now, see ya’ll later.


P.S. I’m away at a Grateful Dead thing from Wed to Sat next week, so worry not at my absence!

Ray Thompson

A superb win in the first at Utt yesterday when Royal Sea popped in at 40/1 and a surprising 138 at BFSP (although it peaked at well over 200 if anyone was monitoring!).

Today I have half a dozen at Meerkat Racing (as it’s endearingly called by certain ATR pundits) –

Mar 3.15HH Sinbad The Sailor 25/1, To Begin 22/1 and Come On Sunshine 22/1
Mar 3.50HC The Society Man 20/1
Mar 4.25HC Cara Court 20/1
Mar 4.55F Bling Noir 40/1
Market Rasen is +44 on Chases and +22 for Hurdles, I’ve only recently include NH Flat and so don’t have enough information yet to formulate meaningful results.

A further 19 at Pon and 28 at Wdr complete today’s investments. Ponte has had 11 wins (4Mdn, 7Hc) with two of the Mdns at 620 and 80 BFSP
Windsor has produced 15 winners (3Mdn, 12Hc) with highs of 70 (Mdn) and 65 (Hc) BFSP


Evening Ray,
Some good results yesterday and hopefully you earned a pretty packet today.
I didn’t have time to bet today due to a prior engagement but I’m back on it tomorrow,hopefully this weather will hang around as it seems to throw up some very interesting results.

Ray Thompson

Nothing on the jumps yesterday, but wow!, what a great day on the flat, especially the three at Ponte, with Top Beak at Windsor the icing on the cake. My 42 bets (answer to everything) after the five NRs made me an after-comm profit of £337.80.

98 flat bets today *gulp* and 21 on jumps at Tipperary (Stats – SR 16% HHrdls, 13% HChs; Points profit +94 Hdl, +16 Ch; October wins 40%)!

I’ll try to report in after racing, but I’m off to beautiful Fowey for a few days in the morning, so might be a bit busy packing tonight.

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Quick note before I leave: 6 winners yesterday, profit after commission: +£193.80. 5 non-runners.

Important observation: grab early prices at Betfair for everything 16/1 – 33/1, BUT select BFSP AT THE OFF for anything 40/1+

See you in a few days!

Ray Thompson

A profitable week, some huge prices from Betfair, and welcome back me! Where’s my party? 😉 64 bets today and the payouts have been getting bigger as the week went on so I’m expecting good returns again today from the UK and Irish tracks (2 meets at each). Let us know how you’ve been getting on lately.




Afternoon Ray and welcome back friend.
I’m in the Algarve all this week with the wife so not much betting for me but I’ll be back in the swing when I get back.
I have noticed some very big priced winners going in though.


ive noticed the same nessie, im going to have to get involved in this.

Ray Thompson

George, I’ve ran my jumps system for six years. It’s based on the old Tail End System, but sculpted to suit my requirements. It has been handicaps only, differentiating between Chases and Hurdles, and selecting ONE horse only for most races (occasionally 2, but not often) but I’ve recently been including NH flat races (bumpers) in the summer system we’ve devised here, to great success! I’m now trialing our flat selection process – backing everything showing at 16s+ on the NH, including Maidens, and it appears to be working (2 of yesterday’s 4 winners were NH, one Hcp Hdl and t’other a bumper).

Your first 30 days for just £1

Yesterday’s 4 winners were at 10/1 (16/1 EP) 25 Bf, 16/1 (22 EP) 36 Bf, 25/1 (25s EP) 40 Bf and 33/1 (from 16s EP) 55 Bf. To £2 stakes that’s a profit of £48 to ISP, £296.40 BFSP after comm.


thanks ray, great explanation mate.

Ray Thompson

From 76 bets yesterday at £2 each £252.70 was returned after comm by Betfair, giving a profit of £100.70. A great day, in spite of Windsor losing all 30 bets there. You needed to be on B.O.G. or early prices to get the returns I did, although more could have been made by diligent monitoring I’m sure. ISPs were crap at Salisbury with two 10/1 winners which were 18/1 and 20/1 early doors. Sedgefield had a nice 25/1 and a poor 8/1 SP after morning opening at 20s each.

I’ve got 117 bets today, which is £234 at Betfair, but it’s a while since a losing day. I know for newbies that can be a huge layout, but doing a “First & Last” bet is £90 with my selections (45 points)

Whatever you do, remember … have fun!


hi ray, well done for yesterday, when you say a first and last what does this mean, is it the first horse at 16/1 and the last horse with the biggest odds
thanks george

Ray Thompson


F+L are first and last RACE at each meeting that qualifies, George. I mentioned a few times earlier here that for nervous beginners it’s a good way to have less bets but still produce steady profits. By some quirk the F+L come up with more of the bigger priced winners than stats would suggest, but remember this is only in the first and last few weeks of the season.

Ray Thompson

I just HAD to tempt fate didn’t I? “It’s been awhile since a losing day”, I said on Tuesday and good ol’ Fate saw a chance to seriously bite my arse, which she did!
Two losing days in a row is not fun. Sorry Fate, I remorsefully apologize and plead with you to make things nice again…

Ray Thompson

Thank you Fate for making things nice again! A handful of good-sized prices meant we’re back on track with a profit that cancelled out the two losing days and upped the bank a bit. LOTS to look at today and I’m quite late starting after a slight family trauma we had to sort out.

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Champions Day at Ascot. Although it’s only in its 5th year there’s an interesting coincidence, possibly a trend, worth looking at. In its inaugural year, 2011, the only winning outsider came in the last race (4.45) at 18/1. In 2012 there were no outsider winners. 2013 the first (1.45) was won by a 20/1 shot, the 2.55 by a 16/1 and while the last (4.45) was won by a 12/1, the next four home were all big prices. Last year the only outsider win was again in the last at 20/1, 2nd was 25/1 and 3rd 33/1.

Yesterday I was three points down (£6) from three wins, one of which was a jumps selection, East Hill at 20/1 (25 EP, 42 BF), so not too bad. The other two were Mukaynis 16/1 (25) at Haydock and late one at Wol, Captain George 20/1 (34) in the 7.20.

Enjoy today! Lots to look at!

Ray Thompson

I’m only doing the first and last races at Ascot, but … further hints on the day: The same venues today as previous years show a plethora of outsiders, and some obvious filters to find them. Check these out:

2011: Cat 5.50 (LAST race) won by a 25/1 shot. Cork FIRST race 2.35 W16/1. Kel 2.45 W25/1, 5.40 (LAST!) 14/1, but opened at 16/1
2012: Cat 4.00 W16/1, 5.15 W14/1 but op. 16/1. Cork 4.50 W20/1. Wol 6.20 W16/1, 6.50 W12/1 but op. 18/1
2013: Cat 1.20 (FIRST) W16/1, op. 25/1. Kel 2.45 W28/1, 3.55 W12/1 op 18/1. Wol 6.20 W28/1, 6.50 W18/1
2014: Cor 3.15 W33/1. Kel 5.40 (LAST) 16/1 op 20/1. Wol 5.45 (FIRST) 50/1, 9.15 (LAST) 14/1 op 18/1

Every little helps!

Ray Thompson

We’ve had no broadband signal since last weekend but it’s up and working again now (still with minor glitches). It was a hardship, but I managed to struggle to the pub with my notebook and access their wi-fi in order to put my bets on. Yesterday was a cracking day for me with seven winners giving a profit of £302 after commission. We won the pub quiz last night (3rd week running!) for £18 each, then my ticket came up to attempt to “open the box” and wow! I picked the correct key (from 8) and took the £107 (usually more, but it was last won only three weeks ago).

Must go and sort today’s bets, and I have a dental appointment at noon 🙁

Back soon.

Ray Thompson


We’re getting into the jumps season soon and with four fences ‘n’ hedges venues today it’s time to look for outsider winners in this genre.

Since beginning my research into Flat Turf and All-Weather systems, I’ve come to realise that our system applies even MORE to jump selections. Whereas previously I was choosing one possible winner from each Chase and Hurdle handicap with the criteria that a minimum of eight runners was required, that I sorted horses for courses (left/right handed), that the form indicated previous ability on the track (C&D or a preference for running at that venue under similar Going, Weight and Rating), that the minimum industry price of 16/1 was essential, that the Betfair price would be 50+% greater than that of the bookie (e.g. 16/1 to be 24/1, or ’25’) and so forth. It was time consuming but effective. Now, we’ve got the lazy way – blanket bet the outsiders with a minimum of filtering or fuss.

Today I’ve invested in 11 animals at Carlisle – five of which are in the 4.25. Crl is in small profit over the last five years of +£25 over Chase handicaps and £110 over Hurdle hcps.
At Ludlow I’m well in profit with +£105 Chs hcps and +£335 Hdls and I have four selections: Johnny’s Legacy 25/1 (50) in the 4.45, and Air Of Glory 33/1 (70), Hill Fort 20/1 (32) and Easy Does It 40/1 (80) in the last (5.15). I should point out that the prices in brackets are my asking prices, if not met they become BFSP at the off.
Southwell isn’t my best track, but it’s down only 1 point (£5) over five years from 110 bets! I’ve fifteen here today, the majority being five in the 3.35
Thurles is very negative at a loss of £150 Chs and £35 Hdl, but I’m chancing 6 in the 3.50, 6 in the 4.50 and three in the last – Massini Boy, Small Batt’s Boy and Derrygereen Girl.
While I’m doing the blanket coverage bit, I’m sticking to £2 bets until I’m sure it works. Meantime, I’ll do a backwards look at all my jumps bets over the years and let you know my conclusion, but that will take time as I also have other things to do!

A further 19 bets tonight at Chelmsford completes my outlay

Navan saved the day yesterday with three in a row – the 3.50, 4.25 and 5.00.

Have fun! 🙂


Morning Ray,
Are you still playing the flat turf or is it too late in the season?

Ray Thompson

Still playing the flat turf and the all-weather Andy. 89 bets today: 26 at sunny Donny, 29 at Nby, and 17 at each of this evening’s A/W courses! This will continue until the end of the flat season around the 10th Nov.

Time for me to go join my Friday Club at the Regal Cinema Bar! Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Three jumps meetings today, Aintree is one of my top earners over Handicap Chases (although mainly in Dec, Mar and Apr) with a post-commission profit to £5 bets of +£755.25 from 48 races. Hurdles are borderline at a 9 points loss from 49 bets, and no real stats yet for new bets on NHS Flat races. Eight £2 bets here today in two H/C Chases and one Flat:
2.30 Mwaleshi 16/1
3.30 Lord Ben 16/1, Brave Spartacus 16/1 and Surf And Turf 25/1
4.35 Handpicked 16/1, Kalaniti 40/1, Lady Of Llanarmon 25/1 and Rock Chick Supremo 16/1

14 bets at Galway which is handier on this Summer jumping thing than the actual Jump Season! Post-comm profits of £47.50 on chases and £190 from hurdles.

Wincanton is very poor on Chases and only +£47.75 from 97 hurdles bets. I’ve done four in the first (1.40) and three in the last (4.45). Both hurdles!

On the flat, we have lovely left-handed Leopardstown today where I’ve covered almost all feasible outsiders in the 12.50, 1.20, 3.55 and 4.25. Huge fields means 23 bets on.

I’ve got my crosses fingered and told the stakes to go forth and multiply… 🙂

Ray Thompson

62 bets yesterday returned 61.75 points after commission! Oh dear, a whole 50p thrown away gambling!

83 bets today – 24 at Kempton, the only right-handed all-weather course in the UK; 18 at Nottingham (6 winners here last Oct at 32, 40, 60, 180, 55 and 25), 7 at Fakenham, but not expecting much there, 19 at Chelmsford and 15 at Dundalk.

Ray Thompson

Two winners at Nott, two at Kem and one biggie at Cfd returned a post-comm £412.30 for 83 £2 bets, a profit on the day of £246.30. Love it!

Two A/W today, Cfd again and Lingfield, 14 and 24 bets; then three jumps meetings: Sed is £65 in profit over Chase course, and borderline over Hurdles at zero% currently. I’ve done first and last races (hdls) and the 1.30 and 3.00 (both H/C chases). Clonmel is the opposite with +£225 over hurdles and a small loss of -£15 on Chases, so my money is spread over two Maidens and three H/C Hurdles. Stratford is +£350 over Chases and minus £160 over hdls, so three chases and a Maiden have my dosh today.

Just to reiterate: I’m doing £2 win bets on all selections at the moment, including Jumps where I’ve increased the selections from one bet (very seldom two) at each race, to all contenders over 16/1 ISP, and dropped my stake from £5 to £2 per horse.


Ray Thompson

Hi, guys! Another good day yesterday. Three winners, all good prices all day on Betfair, returned 275.50 after comm. take away the stakes £146 (3 N/Rs) and I’m left with +£129.50.

Today’s jumps venues are Down Royal, +£150 Chs, +£165 Hdls. I’ve done five in the 2.40H, two in the 3.50Ch and two in the 4.25Flat
Uttox is +£525 Hdls, minus £10 chasers (2 bets down). I’m investing in the hurdle races at 12.45 and 3.35, plus the Maiden at 1.50
Wetherby is down 12 points currently. Not a lot and can return into profit anytime, so I’m on the hurdles at 1.40 and 4.00 and the 3.25 chase

Newmarket is our Flat racing friend and top earner, hence 19 outsider bets there today

The A/W continues to please (2 of yesterday’s 3 winners were A/W) so I’m on 23 at Dundalk and 12 at Wolves.

Play nice and be happy!

Ray Thompson

BOO! Let’s hope the Saturday Curse is lifted for Halloween. And we do have some ghouls, ghosties and even a couple of Luna(r) ticks (geddit?!?) in the betting boxes.

Only Newmarket again for the flat turf, and after a lovely 33/1 (80+) from there yesterday, we gotta go again with 11 bets (including Lunar Deity for the 2.35)

One A/W at Wolves where 15 selections go – including the Spirit (woooo!) Of Gondree 33/1 with some Black Truffle 20/1 *yuk*. Wol did nothing for us yesterday but good ol’ Dundalk graced our bank balance with THREE winners. Overall profit after commission was £176.40 to £2 stakes.

Nothing from the jumps yesterday and there are another four meetings today:
Ascot, good on H/C Chases to the tune of +£460.75 a/c. I’ve got three in the 1.45, two in the 2.15 and five in the 3.25 big field. They are the h/c Chases plus the last at 3.55 is a flat race, so three picks in that.

Ayr is very similar with Chases profitable to £465 a/c. I’ve done nine here today – two chases, a Maiden hurdle and the last is a Flat.

Dro produced a 50/1 winner at this meeting a year ago (Nov 1st was the Saturday). I was a bit surprised that they had nothing yesterday, but crosses fingered for 12 qualifiers today. Down Royal is equally good over Chs and Hdls to +£299.25 a/c.

Wetherby’s slightly in the red and prefers the spring races but I’m chancing a bet in the 3.40 (Vodka Wells mmmm) and a couple in the last.

Now where did I put my clown mask and the chloroform bottle and rag… 🙂

Ray Thompson

Well, the Saturday curse remains and a chunk of the profits was taken but today is another jumps Sunday and although there are four meetings, Cork and Naas have never been good for outsiders whereas right-handers Carlisle and Huntingdon are profitable in both disciplines, H/C Chs and Hdl, although today at Hun there are fewer H/Cs than usual and some small fields.

Crl 2.35HC Chicago Outfit 25/1 (50 = my asking/fishing price on Betfair)
Crl 3.10HH Milborough 50/1 (100), Big Water 20/1 (36), Lexi’s Boy 22/1 (36), Octagon 33/1 (70), Vendor 20/1 (32)
Crl 4.15Flat Thiepval 33/1 (70), The Phantom 20/1 (32), Kalaharry 16/1 (24)

Hun 4.00HH Black Lily 22/1 (36), Ballochmyle 40/1 (80), Little Window 18/1 (30)

On a positive note, I won a litre bottle of Jack Daniels down the pub for my scary zombie outfit and my ghoulfriend – a shrunken beady-eyed skeleton on a stick who danced wonderfully with me. Home made too. Pics on facebook shortly. 🙂

Ray Thompson

A second and three thirds didn’t really brighten my day yesterday.

3 jumps venues in action today. I’m leaving Kempton well alone as it’s yet to produce a winner for my original system (-£90 to 18 £5 bets). It might actually do better with the newly improved system of more bets and £2 stakes but I’m waiting to see it happen first! Ludlow is one of the top earners (+£440 over H/C Chases and Hurdles); nine selections here today. Plumpton is +£250 over hurdles but slightly down on chases, but I’m including selections in the 2.10 chase today as both Lud and Plu are positive at this time of year.

Plu 1.20 MH Guaracha 50/1, Montechito 33/1, Normandy King 66/1 and Cantor 66/1
Plu 2.20 HH King’s Road 25/1, Novalhas 22/1 and Hawk Gold 80/1
Plu 4.00 HH Uranox 18/1, Watchmetail 18/1 and Walk Of Gleams 50/1

Lud 1.40 HH Just Skittles 66/1, Shades Of Navy 33/1
Lud 2.10 HC Newton Geronimo 18/1, Jackthejourneyman 16/1
Lud 2.40 HH Take A Break 20/1
Lud 3.10 HC Carhue 22/1
Lud 3.50 HC What About Molly 16/1
Lud 4.20 Flat Trans Express 20/1, Annie’sboydave 100/1

Good things come to he who waits 🙂

Genesis of a Betting System (Part 4)

We reach Part 4 in this mammoth series and, as we move into September 2015 with the Sinister System squad, things are hotting up with a new variant, the First and Last...

Part 1 can be read here, Part 2 here, and Part 3 here


Ray Thompson

2014 September results produced 35 wins within the parameters previously suggested, plus 9 winning races which fell foul of the exclusion of top two and bottom weights in handicaps (4) and maidens with odds-on favourites (5). This suggests some possible changes which I’ll come to after these figures for the month.

745 bets on flat turf handicaps supplied 24 winners which gave a return of 501 points at bookies’ SP, a loss of 204 pts (less with b.o.g. but a loss nevertheless). Betfair was little better with a return of 765, but 5% comm brought that down to 726.25 – a loss of 18.75 points. Overall, not good, but it helps me see improvements.

Maidens brought a better result, with a lot less bets and, again, some probable improvements. Exactly 300 bets returned 11 winners (not counting the excluded five mentioned in paragraph one). The return at SP would have been 343, a 43 points profit. Betfair was 644, or after comm 611.80, a whopping 311.80 points profit.

There were also 66 maiden bets where the race contained an odds-on fave. With one 33/1 winner this left an SP loss of 32 and a 6 point loss at BSP

I’m gonna sort out today’s bets now but I’ll be back with some more interesting stuff… have fun!

Ray Thompson

Another profitable day yesterday from Granny May if you got the early 70 at Betfair, or even the 33/1 at your bookies, but my heart goes out to any of you who still wait until closer to the off before putting your bet on. 12/1 it won at. Say no more.

I’ve been really busy sussing out the September stuff, so without further ado, let me introduce you to the “Magic Maidens” (copyright and trademark in the works 🙂 :

The really good news is that last September (2014) there were 49 Maiden races containing an odds-on favourite. Those races are absolutely useless to us in that by NOT betting on the contenders (16/1+) in those races, a huge amount of our money gets saved.

LESSON: Don’t put money on ANY race (Maiden or Handicap) that has an odds-on or evens or 11/10 fave. Yes, you’ll get the odd winner here and there, but you definitely will not make a long-term profit backing the usual suspects.

If I break the Maidens down into Maiden Stakes, Maiden Fillies/Mares, Maiden Colts/Geldings and Maiden Auctions, we get the following:

Maiden Stakes: 47 runners, 4 winners at 22/1 (36), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (60) and 16/1 (22). At early, b.o.g., and Betfair greater odds were to be had, but with those four basic prices the returns were 91SP, 143BSP, profits of 44 and 96 points

Maiden Fillies: 25 runners, 4 winners at 66/1 (150), 50/1 (95), 20/1 (34) and 25/1 (40). Basic returns were 171SP, 324BSP, profits of 146 and 299 points

Maiden C & G: 12 runners, 1 winner at 33/1 (40), profits of 33 and 39 points

Maiden Auctions: 15 runners, 1 win at 25/1 (38), profits of 25 and 37 points

And as a bonus – nowt to do with maidens – I mentioned some time ago and probably more than once that NH Flat races seem to pop up the occasional biggies. Here’s last September’s results: 19 runners, 3 winners at 40/1 (80), 33/1 (65) and 22/1 (38),
profits of 95 and 183 points

How’s THAT for a system? 343 at SP or 574 from Betfair in a month IS possible. Let’s hope this year’s September is at least equally generous.

Enjoy AND have fun!!!

Ray Thompson

By the way, before you ask, yes I’ll be pursuing flat turf handicaps here shortly, but for now I need to get today’s bets on!


This looks interesting Ray…. as a newbie that’s just found these posts, reading through 165 of ’em is going to be a bit daunting, but it looks tasty enough to start reading…. it’ll take me a week to get through ’em all, so don’t go away…..


Ray Thompson

Bukle was a nice winner yesterday at 32, 30.4 after comm. Another profitable day.

Hi, Terry, welcome aboard. You’ll only have to skim the earlier posts to see what we set out to attain, and the great achievement posted yesterday!

Handicaps for September last year are taking me a while to collate, but I’m targeting weight/position on race card, Age, Class, Going, Distance and a nod towards stall bias. If you Google “draw bias at (name of track)” you’ll find charts by distance, going (only G-GS, but that’s okay) and number of runners, all the things you guys suggested we incorporate into the search for winners. The only other thing, number of contenders (16/1 to 66/1 for Maidens, 16/1 to 40/1 Handicaps), I can fall back on my main area of NHS outsiders to comment on. By looking at ALL contenders, firstly the Sinister/Dexter rule is a good place to start with handicaps. Where the race isn’t a straight 5,6,7 or 8 furlongs the curve of the track, left or right, can save you backing against the contender’s preference. That, and a serious look at the trainer’s ability in handicaps, especially with first time out horses. Jockey/trainer combinations, the draw, your favourite colour if you must! (Please no). They should allow you to whittle away the real no-hopers and find a maximum of three for races with up to around 10-12 runners, and no more than FIVE for the real big fields of around 20+.

The first week of September 2014 tells me there were 6 winners at 20/1, 16/1, 33/1, 18/1, 20/1 and 20/1 again. I should point out here that one of the criteria for selections is the ISP, the Industry’s book as compiled by their so-called experts. Please don’t even consider trying to find a system based on Exchange (Betfair) prices. It can’t be done, simply because of the rapid fluctuations online, where you’re backing/laying against other punters. Betfair only gains a 5% commission from winning bets and the odds you see are there via automatic alteration with every bet/lay made. And THAT is why you can get such MASSIVE prices with them.

Other things of note from the first week are:
A. 2 wins from 2yos, 1 win each from 3,4,5 and 6+ year olds.
B. 2 wins from Class 3, 1 from C4 and 3 from C5/6. There are more C5/6 than 1,2,3 and 4 combined.
C. 3 wins on GS, 2 on GF and just 1 on Good. There are more races on Good going than GF and GS combined.
D. 1 win over 5f, 3 at 6f and 2 at 10f

That’s it for now. Tell me what you think. Author Douglas Adams said that the number 42 is the answer to everything. I hope today he’s right because that’s how many selections I’m on (with Betfair, of course!)

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

I seem to have lost yet another post. My ‘puter absolutely froze yesterday and I had to switch the whole kit and caboodle off. Seems okay today but it’s definitely going into the computer hospital soon as poss for a good clean out. Anyway, to business…

Doncaster and St Leger Fest is great fun; I used to go regularly back when I was (a) young and sprightly and (b) working and living in the Nor’east.

Donny’s a tricky track but the stats are there nevertheless.

First of all, forget any kind of system we’ve developed over the last few weeks, as it simply does not happen like this at Sunny Donny. It’s a bit like one of the infinite parallel worlds described in mathematical detail recently by a number of scientists of the Quantum Mechanics ilk. However, some things – as with all parallel worlds – are the same as ours, particularly in the mathematics arena. In this case, the draw is very important, especially when it comes to the straight mile vs the round mile (and longer):

Let’s list ’em all for simplicity:

5 and 6f – high draw favoured and horses with a liking for middle to up with the pace running.

7f High draw and middle-to-hold-up horses.

8f Straight – High draw and particularly on the rail with middle to hold-up being most successful.

8f Round – High draw again and although it’s a left hander there’s little or no bias to the inside (low) draw.

12f+ lead-to-middle runners do best and weirdly, from the high draw (Stand side) and middle.

The big priced winners at Legerfest pop in ANY kind of race, but seldom those with a 6/5 or less favourite. Depending on the going, there can be quite a lot of odds-on shots running, like last year when it was Good to Soft generally. I’ve cast an eye over the last five years here to see if we can still make a profit from outsiders and offer you this:

2010 Day 1 (Wed) 25/1 in a nursery and 22/1 in a conditions Stakes. Only one contender (16/1 to 33/1) in the first and two in the second. Both at 40+ available via Betfair.
Day 3 (Fri) 20/1 (50BSP!) in a handicap (7 contenders)
Day 4 (Sat) 16/1 (25) in a Group 2 Stakes (6 contenders)
Add another 24 contenders to the 16 above for ALL races except those containing an odds-on to 6/5 fave and that’s 40 points laid out for a return of 81 (148.25 post-comm BSP)

2011 Day 2. 20/1 (30). (11 bets/contenders)
Day 3. 16/1 (28) and 16/1 (22). (9 bets)
Add 60 to the 20 contenders to cover EVERY race (not o/o-6/5) and your 80 points outlay returned a mere 55 (minus 25 🙁 but a 3.6 profit (83.60) post-comm.

2012 Day 1. 16/1 (24) (only bet) and 20/1 (32) (6 bets)
Day 2. 22/1 (34) (8 bets) and 16/1 (28) (7 bets)
Day 4. 20/1 (28) (10 bets) and 16/1 (26) (one bet)
105 bets to cover every contending race returned 116 (+11) and 163.40 (+58.40 post comm)

2013 Day 2. a non-contending 100/1 winner (475+) boo-hoo!
Day 3. 18/1 (28) (1 bet)
Day 4. 16/1 (28) 11 bets and 20/1 (32) (only contender)
78 bets to cover all racing returned 57 (minus 21) and 83.60 after comm (plus 5.6)

2014 Day 1. 25/1 (38) (11 bets)
Day 4. 16/1 (24) (5 bets)
124 bets to cover every qualifying race returned 43 (minus 81) and 58.90 (-61.5)

2013 and 2014 were Good to Soft, 2012 GF then Good, 2011 and 2010 Good. This year it’s Good again and the first race has just banged in a 25/1 winner!

Have fun, hope the going stays good and remember NOT to back the contenders that don’t qualify via the draw bias or any with faves odds-on, 11/10 or 6/5


Ray Thompson

Has everyone gone to Donny? Or just nothing to say/share?

Good day yesterday with Show Legend returning 25/1, 38+ BSP.
My buddy The Captain says I should have emphasized that profits seen in previous years could easily have been maximised (and losses reversed or shortened) by using the draw bias and pace stats to eliminate the no-hopers. I’ve got 22 runners in the first five and the last races at Donny today. One win at the minimum 16/1 will show a profit on the day because my minimum bet on Betfair is 26.

Have fun!

Steve Walmsley

Hi Ray,

Not wishing to over critical but:

“7f High draw and middle-to-hold-up horses.”

Yesterdays result:

Show Legend – Drawn 3

Comments: Made all, pushed along 2f out and pressed, ridden inside final furlong, held on towards finish.

Completely contrary to the filters you have suggested for Doncaster?

Personally, since you first proposed the “Outsider Principle” I have taken the simplistic approach of backing everything in Handicaps at BFSP (top weight excluded) listed between 16 and 33 on the Sporting Life website at approx 12:30 daily.

My rationale is that the inherent edge built in to your idea (the occasionally massive increased returns from BF) is potentially negated by applying too many filters that will miss the complete shock results. Allied to this is the time required to plough through multiple handicaps on those days with half a dozen meetings.

Just for the record, sticking to £2 bets I am currently showing a profit of £470

Thanks very much for the original idea, my regular betting is based around following handicappers with proven winning form, set to perform under their ideal conditions. Afraid I am from the Clive Holt school of betting from the eighties. Reading the formbook every week to compile my lists, with suitable notes is a complete pain. This method is just so much fun – Look at prices, place bets, look again at the end of the day.


hi steve, just as a matter of interest you say you back everything at 16 – 33 at 12-30 to bfsp in h/caps as shown in the sportinglife, how many selections are you backing per day, obviously working for you with the profit you’ve made.
cheers george

Steve Walmsley

Just ran a quick search on settled bets for the last 30 days there were 1239 bets, across 368 Markets

So an average of 40 per day. I think the most on any one day was in the region of 100.

Net profit £273.89 for an ROI of 11%

Not bad for almost thought free betting.

Probably also worth noting that the biggest downswing was a loss of £280 across 30 markets, in the middle of August. So it can be fairly volatile.


not bad at all steve, thanks for sharing.

Ray Thompson

Hi Steve, quite right about yesterday’s draw bias not working at all, but it IS a bias rather than a rule or law. You’ll see in the earlier posts that my original was similar to your findings, and that I mentioned the other day the importance of the betting forecast – in my case with The Racing Post – for selections rather than trying to base anything on BSP alone.

My post yesterday said my minimum win from 22 bets would suffice, and it did indeed with one N/R and Mr Lupton winning at a mere 10/1. My 24.7 after tax and stake return left me a small profit of 3.7 points. I missed Realtra in my haste to “save money”, but as we’ve observed, the really big money is found during the early weeks of the system, with a huge bias to bigger (50+) Betfair prices in Maidens (last year 50, 50,130,50,120,65,180,140,50,75,200,70,55,70,150,120,75,50,50,200,95,60,60,50, 150,200,100,50,620,80,63,60,430,260,150,60,152,55,55,65,75,60) than Handicaps.

My 28th July post showed the difference between filtered and unfiltered during a specific period. Overall, a few mini-systems or (ir)regularities can be used for filters, one I mentioned last month being that all winners except two at the Curragh last year were either 16/1 or 20/1.

Please stick with us Steve, we need more people like yourself with an eye for good stats and a clear understanding of what I’m trying to achieve here.

Today, 23 bets from me, most races at Donny, Handicaps at Sandown and Chester and three biggies in Salisbury’s 7.30 Maiden.

Remember to have fun!

Ray Thompson

Two nice winners at Bath yesterday (Miss Minuty and Saint Lucy) kept the profits up.

Today I’ve got 12 runners at Brighton (five of them in the 4.00) and my NHS system suggests Maller Tree in the 2.50 at Strat. and in the 3.50 Minella Bliss and Lady Of Longstone but only minimum bets as they’re racing out of the jumps season.


Ray Thompson

Pinch A Kiss was as a nice starter on Monday at 25/1, I’d taken an early 36 at Betfair and that was the only winner for me. Two non-runners was a shame, but still a healthy profit on the day. Yesterday I drew a blank, having had high expectations of the qualifiers but that’s how things happen.

Couple of NRs already today from my picks and prices could be better at some tracks, but I am expecting a decent return on my investment and I’m still collating more info every day to ultimately see the big picture on flat turf outsiders.

Back soon.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Ray Thompson

Things definitely quieting off now, but here’s a low stakes/high return system that I’ve ironed out over 2010-2014 inclusive – 5 years of profit. And then a bonus!

Beginning each year on the Saturday of the Ayr meeting and including all turf flat races at all courses (i.e. not the all-weather, but yes to NH flat) and backing ONLY in the first and last race at each venue except when the race contains an odds-on to 6/5 favourite, here are each year’s results of 16/1+ winners:

2010 this day to END OF SEPTEMBER: 67 races returned 250 points to SP!!!

2011 ditto: 72 races returned 270 points to SP!!!

2012 ditto: 42 races returned 72 points to SP!

2013 ditto: 56 races returned 180 points to SP!!!

2014 ditto: 64 races returned 159 points to SP!!!

Imagine what Betfair paid! There’s more! Jumps races also came good with this system, also through to end of September:

2010: 33 races returned 174 points to SP!!!

2011: 35 races returned 110 points to SP!!!

2012: 22 races returned 42 points to SP!

2013: 21 races returned 55 points to SP!!!

2014: 22 races returned 102 points to SP!!!

Think what you’re going to do when you put these together. That’s right, you’re going to make money. Now nobody can be expected to pick the winner outright in these races, but by selective application of standout observations during the collating of the results over that five year period, we can whittle down our selections to a manageable number. This afternoon or early evening, I’ll have a list up for you of the best and worst days each year (2012 was down to hideous weather and therefore becomes a bit of an anomaly). I’ll mention now though that the 1st day of each year (a Saturday equivalent to today) went as follows:

NO JUMP selections have won over the five years on this first day, so just concentrate on FLAT TURF (incl. Flat NH):

Saturdays: Apart from 2011 where 6 races did zilch, ALL other Saturdays produced winners.

Have fun!


Thanks for all this Ray. Looks interesting. Will definitely keep my eye on it.

Ray Thompson

Sorry I couldn’t post up the rest of the month pointers yesterday, grandson came to stay while mom (my daughter) went off up to London to see Florence and The Machine. However, each day’s results coming up. Great day yesterday with First and Last (Henceforth “F&L”) popping in at Ayr with a 50/1 winner (150 BSP!) and Nmk finishing with a 16/1 shot (27 BSP). If you also followed everything at Ayr as suggested, you had Shaden 16/1 (30) and Tatlisu 18/1 (28) to add to the bank.

Each year from Saturday of Ayr Gold Cup (DAY 1) to end of month had a different number of days of course, with 2010 at 13 days, 2011 14 days, 2012/9, 2013/10 and 2014/11.

2010 Day 1 – 2 jumps races returned zero, 10 others returned 34 points at ISP

2010 Day 2 (today!) 4 Jumps races returned 67 points; 3 others returned 0. ***After this day ZERO jumps returned from 4 races (16 in all) in each year’s Day 2.***

2010 Day 3 (Monday) 2 Jumps rtn 47 pts; 2 others rtn zero

2010 Day 4 (Tues) 2 Jumps rtn 0; 4 others rtn 21

2010 Day 5 (Wed) 3 Jumps rtn 0; 5 others rtn 0

2010 Day 6 (Thur) 3 Jump rtn 34; 2 others rtn 0

2010 Day 7 (Fri) 2 Jumps rtn 26; 4 others rtn 21

2010 Day 8 (Sat) 4 J rtn 0; 8 others rtn 38

2010 Day 9 (Sun) 4 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 38

2010 Day 10 (M) 2 J rtn 0; 5 others rtn 0

2010 Day 11 (Tu) 2 J rtn 0; 3 others rtn 0

2010 Day 12 (W) 3 J rtn 0; 9 others rtn 38

2010 D13 (30th) 0 Jumps races; 5 others rtn 60

Coming up: other years filtered.

Must look at my selections now and do the thing with them… 🙂

Ray Thompson

2011 Day 2 (today) 4 Jumps races rtn 0; 6 other races rtn 17 pts

2011 Day 3 (Mon) 2 J rtn 0; 5 other rtn 0

2011 Day 4 (Tu) 2 J rtn 0; 2 other rtn 142 pts

2011 Day 5 (W) 4 J rtn 21; 5 other rtn 0

2011 Day 6 (Th) 4 J rtn 47; 6 other rtn 17

2011 Day 7 (F) 3 J rtn 0; 6 others rtn 23

2011 Day 8 (Sat) 3 rtn 0; 9 others rtn 0

2011 Day 9 (Sun) 2 rtn 0; 6 others rtn 17

2011 Day 10 (M) 2 rtn 0; 7 other rtn 0

2011 Day 11 (Tu) 2 rtn 0; 4 others rtn 0

2011 Day 12 (W) 2 rtn 0; 9 rtn 0

2011 Day 13 (Th) 2 rtn 21; 2 others rtn 55

2011 Day 14 (F) 5 rtn 21; 3 others rtn 0
2012 Day 1 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 7 other rtn 51;

2012 Day 2 (today) 4 J rtn 0; 2 other rtn 21

2012 Day 3 (Mon) 2 J rtn 0; 6 other rtn 0

2012 Day 4 (Tu) 2 J rtn 21; 4 other rtn 0

2012 Day 5 (W) 3 J rtn 21; 3 others rtn 0

2012 Days 6 – 9 incl. 9 J rtn 0; 19 other 0
2013 Day 1 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 9 others rtn 63

2013 Day 2 (today) 4 J rtn 0; 4 others rtn 0

2013 Day 3 (Mon) 0 J races; 6 others rtn 21

2013 Day 4 (Tu) 3 J rtn 0; 4 others rtn 58

2013 Day 5 (W) 2 J rtn ); 4 others rtn 0

2013 Day 6 (Th) 0 races; 6 others rtn 0

2013 Day 7 (F) 4 J rtn 38; 6 others rtn 0

2013 Day 8 (Sat) 3 J rtn 0; 6 others rtn 38

2013 Day 9 (Sun) 0 races; 5 others rtn 0

2013 Day 10 (M) 1 J rtn 17; 6 others rtn 0
2014 Day 1 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 26

2014 Day 2 (Sun) 4 J rtn 0; 8 others rtn 0

2014 Day 3 (M) 0 J races; 4 others rtn 0

2014 Day 4 (Tu) 2 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 0

2014 Day 5 (W) 2 J rtn 0; 4 others rtn 55

2014 Day 6 (Th) 2 J rtn 81; 4 others rt 0

2014 Day 7 (F) 3 J rtn 21; 4 others rtn 0

2014 Day 8 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 9 others rt 34

2014 Day 9 (Sun) 0 races; 5 others rtn 21

2014 Day 10 (M) 2 J rtn 0; 5 other rtn 23

2014 Day 11 (Tu) 3 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 0

And that’s yer lot me hearties!! Pick the bones out of ’em and report back to me with changes and/or filters as soon as yer like after sparrowfart termorra. Arr, me boys, there be lots of treasure in them thar stats!

Ray Thompson

No takers, eh? Well, here’s some great news; as I said very early on this thread, beginning and end of the season are more likely to produce outsiders than the middle of season. I’m compiling the last five years of OCTOBER now (and start of Nov, but it’s only a few days in until the official last day of the flat (always the day of the November Cup at Doncaster). We’ve seen how the start of the season went, the last few weeks should be equally profitable or even a lot better.

I’ll get the rest of the figures out here as soon as I’ve completed them.

Stay happy!

Ray Thompson

The Autumn Equinox on 22/23 September each year appears to be about the start of the deterioration of winners at the popular end of the betting forecasts (and actual prices at the off) as more and more outsiders make their presence felt. There are also some big fields, which in turn mean a lot of contenders in each race. It’s difficult to find filters when a single 100/1 win every month or so returns high hundreds – and even 1,000/1 plus at Betfair. To catch these huge outsiders means having to bet on every eligible nag in every race, but as you’ll see, this need not be too painful once your bank is up and running. Yesterday for instance, I had a nerve-wracking afternoon after I’d placed 75 bets on at £2 each at Betfair. £150 is a lot to part with when there are so many races/runners on the day. However, my confidence in doing that was restored by the end of racing with five winners returning exactly double my original stake. Well, actually, after 5% commission was removed it was £285 added to my account, but still a decent £135 profit.

Anyway, let’s get ourselves into my TARDIS and I’ll take you for a spin back to 2010 for a look at the returns from all races containing contenders for the big prize. After my discoveries on this trip through time and race(s) I’ve seen things mere mortals could only dream of! Oh, hang on a mo’, erm, that was actually Roy Blatty in Blade Runner wasn’t it? Back to reality *cough*, and my decision to split First + Last (FL* on the grid) from Maidens, Handicaps, All-Weather and NH flat. You might be surprised at some of these, but you’ll recall that after specifying Flat TURF only, I mentioned a couple of times that other races (AW + NH Flat) sprang up with some massively priced winners in the first few weeks of the season. Well, they’re there at the last few weeks as well.

These are the complete results for 23rd Sept to November 6th in 2010. The First and Last are of particular interest for anyone who might be just getting into this or don’t wish to cover a whole day’s races. The F+L are indicated by an asterisk and refer to any contenders in the first and last race at each qualifying meeting of the day. I’ve some notes after these figures which will give you an idea of the sort of returns we’re looking at.Betfair prices are bracketed, and my, don’t some of them look fine!?!

2010 September 23rd: 16/1* (22), 16/1* (22), 20/1* (32). 24th: 20/1 (32), 21* (30). 25th: 20/1* (32), 20/1 (30),16/1 (24), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (24), 16/1* (25). 26th: 20/1* (32), 16/1 (22), 16/1* (23), 20/1 (32). 27th: 16/1 (46), 25/1 (42). 28th: 50/1 (70), 66/1 (140). 29th: 16/1 (24), 20/1* (32), 33/1 (240). 30th: 33/1* (65), 25/1* (40), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (25), 16/1* (26).

2010 Oct 1st: 16/1 (32), 16/1 (26), 20/1* (32), 20/1* (34), 25/1* (40), 16/1* (24), 25/1* (48) . 2nd: 20/1* (32), 16/1 (25). 3rd: 25/1* (40), 25/1 (40). 4th: 16/1* (23), 16/1* (25), 33/1* (70); 5th: 16/1* (25), 33/1 (70). 6th: 25/1 (40), 33/1 (70), 16/1 (25), 66/1* (250). 7th: 22/1* (36), 40/1 (65), 16/1 (25), 25/1* (55), 16/1* (25). 8th: 33/1 (65), 28/1 (55), 16/1 (25), 18/1 (28), 25/1 (50). 9th:

Sorry, just realised it’s my swim night; I’m sure you get the gist of this, back tomorrow to complete through to this year.

Ray Thompson

So, where were we? Ah, yes…

2010 Oct 9th: 20/1* (32), 25/1* (50), 40/1 (82), 16/1, (28). 10th: 25/1 (40), 28/1 (120), 20/1* (55), 20/1 (32), 20/1 (30). 11th : 20/1 (32), 25/1 (40), 50/1* (85), 16/1 (23). 12th: 16/1* (22). 13th: 20/1 (30), 16/1* (25), 20/1* (32), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (22), 16/1 (22). 14th: 16/1 (24), 20/1 (34), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (65), 16/1 (24), 16/1* (25). 15th: 16/1 (25), 18/1 (28), 66/1 (130). 16th: 25/1 (40), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (25). 17th: 20/1 (32), 16/1* (25), 25/1* (38), 22/1 (36), 25/1 (40). 18th: 22/1 (34), 20/1* (32), 20/1* (34). 19th: 16/1 (24), 20/1 (38), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (23), 25/1* (50). 20th: 33/1 (55), 20/1 (30). 21st: 16/1* (25), 33/1* (55), 40/1* (80). 22nd: 33/1 (65), 16/1* (25). 23rd: 16/1 (24), 28/1 (48), 33/1* (50). 24th: 50/1* (100), 25/1 (40), 28/1 (42). 25th: 16/1 (23), 25/1 (36). 26th: 33/1 (65), 20/1* (50), 33/1 (200), 16/1* (40). 27th: 16/1* (20), 20/1 (32), 20/1 (32). 28th: 25/1 (48), 16/1 (34), 25/1* (60), 66/1 (140), 33/1 (55), 25/1 (36), 16/1* (32). 29th: 80/1* (120), 16/1 (22), 16/1 (24), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (24), 200/1 (1,000) Yes, REALLY!), 22/1 (36). 31st: 20/1 (32), 16/1 (24).

Nov 1st: 20/1* (28). 2nd: 40/1* (85). 3rd: 33/1 (40), 22/1* (40), 20/1* (30). 4th: 16/1* (25), 20/1 (34). 5th: 16/1 (20), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (22). 6th: 20/1 (45), 16/1 (22), 18/1 (28), 33/1* (160), 25/1 (40), 18/1 (25). 2011 next.

85 bets yesterday (£170) returned 254.60 after comm, a profit on the day of £84.90 from three winners. Great, innit? 🙂

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Seven winners yesterday gave back profits of 49 pts SP and 130.15 (£260.30) after comm at Betfair.

2011 Sept 23rd: 16/1 (25), 22/1* (50), 20/1 (32). 24th: 20/1 (30), 25/1 (40), 40/1 (60), 16/1 (25). 25th: 16/1* (65), 25/1 (40), 16/1 (22). 26th: 20/1 (32), 20/1 (32). 28th: 16/1 (25), 16/1 (23), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (24). 29th: 33/1* (44), 18/1 (30), 20/1* (30), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (24). 30th: 22/1* (44), 25/1 (50), 20/1 (32), 20/1* (36).

Oct/Nov to follow…

Ray Thompson

…..and concluding 2011.

Oct 1st: 20/1* (30), 16/1 (32), 16/1 (24), 25/1* (40), 33/1* (60), 28/1* (50). 3rd: 18/1* (28), 16/1 (24). 4th: 16/1* (25), 16/1 (23), 20/1 (34). 5th: 16/1 (20), 20/1 (30). 6th: 25/1 (40). 7th: 25/1 (42), 28/1* (44). 8th: 25/1* (40), 25/1 (46), 20/1 (32), 25/1 (42), 20/1 (32), 20/1 (32). 9th: 20/1* (32), 25/1* (50), 40/1 (82), 16/1 (28). 10th: 18/1* (28), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (50), 28/1* (40), 40/1 (90), 16/1 (22). 11th: 25/1* (40). 12th: 16/1* (22), 28/1 (40), 16/1 (25), 25/1 (40), 20/1 (32), 40/1 (120). 13th: 16/1 (23), 16/1 (24), 33/1 (75), 20/1* (32), 20/1* (30), 16/1* (23). 15th: 18/1* (32), 25/1* (42), 16/1* (24), 16/1* (25). 16th: 16/1* (22). 17th: 16/1* (23), 16/1 (24), 16/1* (25). 19th: 20/1 (32), 16/1 (22), 20/1 (32), 25/1 (42). 20th: 25/1 (40). 21st: 33/1 (100), 16/1*(25), 33/1 (50), 20/1 (30), 28/1 (44), 16/1 (23), 25/1 (40). 22nd: 25/1 (40). 23rd: 50/1 (100), 20/1* (32). 24th: 16/1 (24), 20/1 (30), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (70). 26th: 20/1 (32), 100/1 (300), 20/1 (30), 33/1 (60), 25/1 (38). 28th: 33/1 (60), 18/1 (28), 16/1 (21). 29th: 20/1* (32), 20/1 (30), 16/1* (24), 16/1 (22).

Nov 1st: 20/1* (32). 2nd: 16/1 (22), 20/1* (32), 20/1 (32). 3rd: 16/1 (25), 16/1 (23), 22/1 (36), 40/1 (80). 4th: 16/1 (24), 50/1 (360), 22/1* (34), 22/1 (36). 5th: 20/1* (30), 16/1 (22).

I could continue with 2012, ’13 and ’14 but they’re really all quite similar, so to save time let’s go straight to the basics. For the above, we see 32 hits on F+L* only and a further 56 on Maidens, Handicaps, All-Weather and Flat NH. We’ll call them MHAF hereafter. They come down from BSPs of 360, 300, 100 etc so BIG profits.

2012 saw 44 wins F+L and 62 MHAF incl. BSPs of 200, 130, 120, 110×2, and loads more in 80s, 70s, 60s and beyond
2013 saw 37 F+L and 54 MHAF inc. BSP returns of 170, 140, 100, 95 and the rest lesser amounts down to the 20s
2014 gave 46 F+L and 52 MHAF incl. 200, 190, 100, etc. and let us not forget that 1,000 payback from Betfair in 2010 (if only we’d known then … blah blah blah)

Any questions?


I’m quite new to this post so please bear with me.
I’m I looking to back any horse that is 14/1 or over in handicap flat turf races,discarding the top two weights and the bottom weight?
Is this about right for the basics?

Ray Thompson

Hi Andy, nearly there. Any of the following that are 16/1 or greater in the bookies’ betting forecast, but put them on with Betfair, where much higher odds are achievable (see some of the results above for comparison – especially with the big prices). The top two and bottom don’t seem to be a problem in the first and final weeks of the season (which includes NOW):

All flat turf Handicaps PLUS Maidens, All-Weather, and National Hunt FLAT races (bumpers).

For folks who don’t have the time to spare (or the money initially!) I’d suggest starting with our First And Last system, which involves backing all 16/1+ horses in the F+L race at EVERY course each day (Including any jumps meetings)

Yesterday, to an outlay of 128 bets, 6 races returned PROFITS of 11 points to SP or a massive 76 points fromBetfair (£144.40 to minimum £2 stakes after commission)

I have 54 selections today, having used draw bias filters on the really big fields.



hi ray, are there any race number criteria, or is it just any horse over 16/1 forecast price.


Can I confirm that at this time of year to include all the weights in handicaps including top two and bottom weights? (Providing the price conforms).
Also,can I ask? A/W races, are they just the handicaps or all races included?
PS Can anyone advise me on what sites you use to gather the relevant information?


I tried this system on the Handicap races today,I had 16 bets,one winner,LIL SOPHELLA 4.10 MUSS.
Does this just about tally with what anyone else did today?
Also,where are the relevant prices coming from,the betting sites (odds checker) or the tissue prices under the racecard?

Ray Thompson

G’day Andy and George (Were you WHAM!???). The field criteria I use is initially that the number of horses at 16/1+ should be around a third if there are lots of runners. If there are more than a third (e.g. one race today has 16 runners and ten of them are 16+) then look at the draw bias for that course and distance and apply accordingly. Search Draw Bias At … (Name of course)… and options will appear. They can be very useful in discounting the disadvantaged runners. If you’ve still got more than the third needed, then use your judgement/knowledge on which to include. I tend towards past and recent performance (Form) obviously checking out the sinister/dexter suitability of horse and course, although I know a lot of you prefer Trainer stats or trainer/jockey combos. Whichever suits you is the way to go.

AW races are all capable of producing big-priced winners. Irish courses often show HUGE differences in the SP criterion price and the actual Betfair payout with 20s coughing up 100, 16s paying 50 and so on.

I use my old familiar sites, but. I’ve begun integrating Geegeez cards and info recently as it’s been developing and it really is evolving into a superior species.

Tissue prices at the bottom of the race card are first port of call for me along with developing bookie prices alongside each runner. If, say, a runner that was 16/1 slips to 14/1 with the industry, I will still back the selection if Betfair still has 20+ about it. In all the tables above this post I’ve included winners that were 16+ISP until dropping to 14s or 12s just before or at the off.

I had only two winners yesterday: Tylery Wonder at Curragh and Lil Sophella at Muss, both handicaps. A tiny post-comm profit of £13.40. Hoping to do better today with 81 bets (£162) laid out.

Have fun!


Morning Ray,
Hope you had a decent day yesterday.
Can I ask you to confirm that what I am looking at is the same as you?

All flat turf handicaps and maidens.
All A/W races (regardless of what type of race).
All NHF races.
All Irish handicaps and maidens.


Ray Thompson

Spot on there Andy. As we proceed into Oct and Nov more and more winning outsiders will become evident. Stick to the basics (more or less) and you can’t go wrong. As confidence increases with returns, soon you’ll feel like a veteran at the game as you just do everything automatically. But any questions – I’m always here.

Five winners yesterday, the first of which I’d backed in the morning as usual at 38 when the ISP was 25/1. It got seriously backed in the afternoon in to 11/1! That was Harrison Stickle. Others were Catalina’s Diamond in the last at Bath, Jacob’s Pillow at 24 when it was 16/1, won at 12/1 and Archipelago at Hamilton, and a lovely 33/1 (65 BSP early doors) at Roscommon. My profit on the day was just under £200 after comm. (£197.10).

79 bets this morning at Ayr, Fairyhouse and Wolvs AW; was more but seems to be a few non-runners today! Also a few (10) over the jumps today that I have a separate system for. If you want to keep an eye on them, here they are, but just watch as the jumps season proper doesn’t actually start until November.

Sed 2.00 HH. Mister Hendre
Sed 2.30 MH. Rocky Two
Sed 3.05 HC. Prince Blackthorn
Sth 3.30 HH. Prince Of Silver
Sed 3.40 HH. Key Account
Sth 4.05 HH. Optical High
Sed 4.15 HC. Dover The Moon
Sed 4.50 F. Kicking Lilly, Skiddaw Poppy and Knysna Bay

Have a great day!


Hi Ray,
I must have missed a couple yesterday,I didn’t do the Irish races ( I have today) and I also missed Catalinas Diamond.
I assume it must have been under 16/1 on the tissue prices (Sporting Life) the night before racing as I have to use these pointers because of work commitments.
I’m still happy though.

Ray Thompson

Losses from only two winners yesterday ran to £49.70 after comm. Would have been a lot more if I hadn’t taken 32 available in the morning when bookies had Lily’s Prince at 20/1 (won at 8/1). Today’s 88 picks should prove a lot better (he says worriedly *gulp!*)

Time to turn on the telly…

Genesis of a Betting System (Part 3)

Part 3 in the series, and a few strands start to come together for our system developers. If you remember from Part 1 and Part 2, they've been delving into the big-priced end of the market. Here's how things progressed through August of last year...


Ray Thompson

Flat Handicaps on Turf from 29/3/15. Winners ISP and (Field/Racecard Place)

(Note that 12/1 and 14 given were 16/1+ in early forecast and/or opened on track at the same 16/1+; also 40+ winners which were 33/1 in forecast and early prices)

March: 14/1 (6th of 18); 16/1 (5th of 7); 18/1 (5/18); 14/1 (5/7)

April: 16/1 (6/11); 28/1 (9/10); 25/1 (13/14); 20/1 (6/11); 20/1 (7/8); 16/1 (7/17); 20/1 (3/16); 16/1 (5/9); 25/1 (10/14); 28/1 (6/6); 14/1 (6/12); 14/1 (11/12); 14/1 (3/13); 16/1 (9/12); 18/1 (10/12); 16/1 (7/13); 33/1 (11/13); 14/1 (4/10); 25/1 (5/13); 16/1 (4/11); 16/1 (5/5); 14/1 (18/20); 16/1 (1/10); 16/1 (8/11); 20/1 (9/10); 12/1 (8/8); 16/1 (4/9).

May: 16/1 (6/9); 16/1 (2/9); 20/1 (7/10); 20/1 (2/11); 25/1 (9/9); 16/1 (7/22); 16/1 (2.10); 14/1 (4/10); 25/1 (8/16); 20/1 (17/21); 20/1 (10/11); 16/1 (5/12); 16/1 (8/13); 25/1 (6.10); 20/1 (10/14); 25/1 (9/11); 50/1 (9/16); 14/1 (11/17); 50/1 (3/11); 20/1 (16/18); 14/1 (8/10); 18/1 (12/13); 12/1 (10/18); 14/1 (6/11); 16/1 (13/13); 16/1 (4/17); 20/1 (5/9); 16/1 (7/7); 20/1 (9/9); 14/1 (8/10); 33/1 (5/14); 16/1 (9/16); 33/1 (12/16); 16/1 (1/9); 16/1 (9/9); 14/1 (8/10); 12/1 (9/11); 20/1 (5/14); 16/1 (3/14); 33/1 (3/11); 18/1 (4/13); 20/1 (3/7); 16/1 (8/11); 33/1 (8/18); 14/1 (15/18); 33/1 (5/15); 14/1 (5/7); 25/1 (3/8); 16/1 (10/13); 20/1 (4/21); 25/1 (13/13); 16/1 (4/15); 16/1 (8/10); 33/1 (8/8).

June: 16/1 (9/12); 33/1 (12/15); 20/1 (6/9); 25/1 (5/10); 16/1 (6/9); 33/1 (7/8); 20/1 (11/11); 20/1 (9/9); 16/1 (13/13); 25/1 (2/7); 16/1 (16/20); 20/1 (1/19); 18/1 (7/9); 33/1 (7/8); 25/1 (6/13), 25/1 (5/10); 25/1 (6/12); 25/1 (10/10); 50/1 (9/9); 16/1 (14/14); 20/1 (11/14); 33/1 (6/7); 16/1 (8/11); 16/1 (6/13); 14/1 (5/5); 16/1 (10/11); 14/1 (4/9); 14/1 (8/14); 16/1 (8/13); 12/1 (11/14); 28/1 (7/10); 16/1 (10/11); 16/1 (3/6); 16/1 (11/20); 20/1 (2/12); 33/1 (5/7); 20/1 (8/10); 25/1 (6/6); 16/1 (3/16); 14/1 (6/8); 14/1 (10/14); 16/1 (11/14); 16/1 (5/6); 16/1 (6/8); 14/1 (8/8); 20/1 (13/21); 25/1 (10/11); 16/1 (9/10); 16/1 (2/7); 14/1 (6/8); 14/1 (6/7);
16/1 (2/9); 16/1 (1/10).

July: 14/1 (6/15); 16/1 (6/8); 25/1 (6/14); 16/1 (4/6); 25/1 (2/16); 25/1 (8/11); 12/1 (12/14); 16/1 (4/10); 16/1 (6/9); 12/1 (5/5); 16/1 (12/13); 20/1 (2/9); 16/1 (13/17); 14/1 (4/17); 12/1 (5/6); 33/1 (7/9); 16/1 (10/10); 16/1 (6/6); 25/1 (2/10); 22/1 (9/15); 20/1 (6/14); 16/1 (10/10); 16/1 (12/14); 16/1 (10/17); 16/1 (8/20); 16/1 (14/18); 16/1 (12/13); 25/1 (8/11); 16/1 (3/13); 20/1 (5/11); 20/1 (8/11); 14/1 (6/10); 16/1 (4/10); 16/1 (6/14); 20/1 (11/14); 20/1 (6/16); 16/1 (12/18); 16/1 (13/19); 18/1 (8/16); 16/1 (3/7); 40/1 (10/11); 20/1 (5/10).

Aug: 16/1 (3/14); 14/1 (5/7); 33/1 (4/8); 16/1 (11/20); 20/1 (9/13); 16/1 (13/14); 22/1 (7/17); 16/1 (8/9); 25/1 (10/10); 16/1 (7/12); 18/1 (8/12); 20/1 (15/15); 16/1 (1/13)

Right. Brunch then movies (Hot Pursuit), back at teatime!


blinking heck, youve put some work in there ray, get a cider lad, you deserve one.

Steve Walmsley

Just applying some basic logic, I suspect its the changes of going that we experience in the early and late months.

Perhaps the absolute refinement would be to limit betting to G-S or worse?


+52 today 2 winners


blimey, looking good

Ray Thompson

I’ve noticed in NH races that certain horses win on their favoured going and a great many of my NH system winners are “mud monkeys” that ONLY win on Heavy, SH, or Soft, often to the disbelief of the tv pundits who can’t be arsed to read the form correctly and/or never consider anything more than the top 4 or 5 in the betting, so until I’ve completed my current chart – Class & Going vs Race Distance – of this year’s results, then I’m as in the dark as you are Steve. Hopefully, I’ll complete it tomorrow.

Came out of the cinema shortly after 4 this afternoon and while my mate went to get the drinks in, I nipped into Betfred next door to check the results so far, but I bunged a fiver apiece on Rayak and Glens Wobbly in the 4.30 while I made some results notes. Nice £130 return, thank you. 😀


Busy busy busy Ray,

I have done some number crunching making some assumptions:

For period 29.03.2015 to 04.08.2015

Number of days = 118
Average bets per day = 34
Average winning odds = 22
Number of wins = 194

So here is the math bit:

Outlay – 118 × 34 = 4012 points
Return – 194 × 22 = 4268 points
P&L = 4268 – 4012 = 256 points

At £2 a point for an outlay of £8024 and a return of £8536 that would have produced a profit of £512

SR = 4.5% with number of losing bets of 3818

So according to my calculations you are now £512 richer Ray since 29 March. Would you agree?

Ray Thompson

Great work there, Tigris, and I’d say you’re right to that £2. I have slid up the scale a bit though, increasing after a losing run of 20 to £3, after 40 to £4, but to be honest, it’s a bit hit and miss at the moment until we get more filters worked out. Personally, although it makes for an interesting read, I wouldn’t be counting the days in my calculations, just number of consecutive wins and losses. However, keep up the good work, mate, you’re exactly part of the team we need to make money.

Right, back to my Class/Distance/Going comparison chart. I’m hoping for completion today, but I do have to pop into town for a hour or so, and it’s my weekly swimming therapy this evening. 16 lengths should do it, as the actress said to the bishop…


what happens if you only back in races where the fav is 5/1 or better
compared to 2/1 or less and thanks for all your hard work


43 bets today not counting evenings


Big number finky1, i have gone for 6 today with two more possibles just sitting below bsp odds range of 15 to 43 at the moment. Will check prices before the off.

Like you have not looked at evening yet.

Will be interesting to compare results later. If there are a few big price winners today then you will most likey be on. With mine and narrowing the selections hope is to hit at least one.


Thanks Ray, I ran the basic system to BSP 15 to 43 from the 29 March 2015 to 5 August and found the following frequency of losing runs:

Losing runs in days

Ray Thompson

I’ve done my chart for the 187 flat turf handicap winners by class/going/distance so far during the 2015 flat season. Rather than attempt a huge double-grid here, I’ll just tell you how it pans out beginning with Class, then going, and distance last.

C1 3 winners, C2 21, C3 20, C4 54, C5 43, C6 47

Heavy 6, Soft + SH 33, G+GS 75, GF 68, Firm 5

5f 31 winners, 6f 31, 7f 37, 8f(1 mile) 27, 9f 5, 10f 25, 11/12f 21, 14f+ 10

I think this initially shows room for more filters, and I’m hoping that this and Tigris’s losing runs research (and anything else you chaps may have noticed that we’ve missed) take us further along the road to massive success. For a start, if some nice person with access to one of the databases that do instant counting, could let us know the TOTAL number of Flat turf handicaps with runners in the price range we’re targetting, and if they could break that down into the five Classes, then that would be a huge weapon to add to our armoury. I think, for example, that there are probably so few Class 1 races that meet our requirements, that the three winners we’ve spotted are probably in profit!

Back tomorrow, have fun!


3 winners today +25 today


this is getting to be a regular occurance finky, nice one


86 to win 25 same as backing 1/3 shot
keep going till i lose

Steve Walmsley

Interesting finky, I only managed 2 winners today:

Roxy Lane @ 20.99 BSP
Lydiate Lady @ 22.18 BSP

I am showing a loss of 10pts on the day.

Love to know what the 3rd winner was.


Getting interesting Ray, I have done it on BSP 15 t0 43, so more or less fits your range, from 29.03.2015 to 05.08.2015 (assuming my counting Pivot table is correctly set up) there were 1346 handicap races with runners in this price range. Which should be roughly in the same region as doing the ISP range, give or take a few.

Would be helpful if someone else could do the same to see if this is in the right ball park?

Is this what you asked?


Good going, no wins for me today with 5 bets – profit now +£29


i take prices before i go to work in morning at 9
the two horses you said above qualify also in the
430 in wolverhamton idol deputy qualify but during the
day must have been gambled on won on betfair 13.65 as i take
betfair sp on all qualifiers and check when i come home
from work in evenings

Ray Thompson

There were only two winners yesterday. Wolverhampton is an A/W course, therefore not in our remit.

Today, I’m starting a total grid of Flat Turf Maidens, as I keep seeing massive winning prices, way above our H/C levels. No harm in taking a look to see if we can use them in any way, even if they’re only going to be early/late season winners. I’ll let you know what I find when I’m done.

Got my Friday Club this p.m. and I gotta take a stack of cut-up buddleia that I’ve dug up to the gardening waste centre first, so unlikely I’ll complete the Maidens task today! Talk soon, have fun!


Correction I had 8 bets on 6 August @ £2 = total outlay = £16, so running total is actually: +£23, since 1 August.

No bets today from my slimmed down system, though it has identified a few, but outside Odds range, interestingly by system yesterday had Gentlemen and Sallabeh, in fact seems throw out a few low price winners, trouble is not in odds range and not profitable to bet on, as then too many bets and too many losers.

List for today is:

17:55,Hayd,Felix Fabulla 4.7
19:30,Hayd,Jebediah Shine 5.1
20:35,Hayd,Joshua Potman 8.8
20:35,Hayd,Lucie Rie 9.4

Outside odds range and one is bottom weight. So no bet on these today.


Now +£21 as Lucie Rie hit 15.0 just before the off, so was a bet, hard this business of BSP odds, I see how you missed the 70.0 finky1.

so just one bet for me today in the end.


Ray, I know you are looking at Flat Turf Maidens, tricky it looks, I just did a little analysis for 2015 for Maidens and looks very hairy stuff. At BSP prices between 15 and 200, I got 2131 bets with 63 wins, and 2068 losers, SR = 2.96 and P&L = 87 points.

So would seem profit is possible, but the downside was the losing runs, biggest was 145, quite a long run!

I attempted to do some filtering and found that, the odds range seems optimum, with Class 4 & 5 maximising profit, also Good to Soft was not profitable.

Also found that Fillies and Geldings had the worse SR and thus profit, so taking these out, made quite a difference.

With one or two more tweaks I got to a SR of 4.5%, so betting on Maidens is still going to be one of lots and lots of losers, I got it down to about 5 bets per day, system gave out 18:25,Hayd,Colour Me Happy today which came second but not quite good enough.

I got system profit for 2015 to 300 points with 25 wins out 521 bets, so pretty low SR.

It would seem to be the case with any system so far we have looked at that betting on outsiders involves long losing runs and few winners, but since they offer bigger prices, the chance of profit is favourable, with nerves of steel maybe just maybe it could work.

Last winner in system was Lorelina on 30 July at 40.8 BSP, 19 losing bets since then…

Will post the selections for tomorrow if there are any….


Here are three possible bets in a Maiden race today – all in the same race:

14:00,Newm,Gypsy Eyes
14:00,Newm,Gale Song

Only a bet if odds are between 12.0 and 200 BSP just before the off.

Gypsy Eyes is highlighted as Jockey/Trainer Combo.


Here are my selections for the Flat Handicaps today:

14:20,Hayd,The Character
16:00,Hayd,Jumeirah Glory
16:00,Hayd,Felix De Vega
16:35,Hayd,Straits Of Malacca
17:05,Hayd,Red Forever
18:40,Ayr,Pomme De Terre
18:40,Ayr,Penelope Pitstop
18:40,Ayr,A Lovable Rogue
19:10,Ayr,Mystical King

only a bet if odds are between 15 and 43 just before the off.

Ray Thompson

I did the maidens yesterday from season start, one winner on 28th Mar, the rest in April. I recorded four separate types of maiden race: Auction, Fillies/Stallions/Geldings only, Funds and the biggie, Stakes.

From 45 bets, Auctions came up with two winners – 16/1 and 20/1, returning 38 (-7) at ISP and 25 + 32 at BSP (+12) so I think we’ll say no to that one for the moment.

Fillies etc, from 88 bets produced one winner at 16/1 (20 BSP). ‘Nuff said!

Funds better, with only three winners from 149 bets. 40/1, 18/1 and 20/1, which would’ve lost 68 points, butBetfair gave 110, 40 & 42 or 182.50 after the 5% commission, enough to show a profit of +33.50. However, I don’t think that’s worth the hassle.

Maiden Stakes is a different kettle of fish though, and bears further research which I’ll get started on today. 173 bets returned nine winners at 25/1, 22/1, 50/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1, 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1. SP returned 245 a profit of +72. Nice, but…

Betfair gave 31,32,100,32,50,60,26,32,42. Yum! A total of 405, profit +212. Now THAT’S what I call a nice profit for the first month of the season.

As I said in an earlier post, this could be something that only happens early in the season, before even the trainers find out how good or bad their charges are. If it’s anything like the NH, beginning and end of the season are when the big prices are to be had. However, I’ll continue to bring this right up to date and see how it all pans out. And probably worth a comparison with last year. Also, if the first month or so is similar to this year, then we should also look at later in 2014 to see how we might get prepped for this year’s last couple of months of the flat.

Tigris, some good work there, which I see is comparable to my mini (but in depth!) examination.


Back soon… 🙂


Gypsy Eyes won, but out of odds range….

-24 points today – running at -£3 as of today

Your first 30 days for just £1


Two from my Maiden Stake System today:

14:00,Leic,Frock Coat 26.0
14:00,Leic,Gold Faith 17.0

Must be between 12.0 and 100.0 on Betfair just before the off.

Ray Thompson

Doing good there, Tigris. Maiden Stakes (NO single sex, funds or auctions attached to those two words, just the name of the Maiden Stakes) in May this year performed as follows:

There were 80 races that complied with the 16/1+ only (including horses that may have been less in the early betting but drifted out to at least 16/1, and those which could have been backed at early 16/1+ but ran at reduced odds). There were 309 possible bets across those races, returning 9 wins of 25/1,20/1,20/1,20/1,50/1, 25/1,16/1,50/1,20/1 to produce an ISP LOSS of 54 points.

Betfair paid 40,40,32,32,80,50,23,200,32 however, a resounding 503 points after commission – a PROFIT of 194 after losers and commission.

24 placers up to 66/1 (one at 100/1 which didn’t count!).

The +212 from 9 wins in April almost parallels the May result with same number of wins.

I’m off to visit the June results this afternoon!

Ray Thompson

….and June is a washout 🙁

From 84 qualifying races, 302 bets returned at SP – 28/1,33/1,20/1,25/1 for a LOSS of 192 points.

Betfair gave a minimum 50,100,90,40 back which after commision left a negative of 35.8 points. Note that I said “minimum”. Had you the time to get on really early, or pitched in when the money was better, then you would easily have cut that exchanges deficit of 35.8 back to around the zero mark, say 5 or so either side of Plus/Minus, but really, not enough to make you throw your hat in the air while screaming “Yee-haw!!!”

And actually, that would appear pretty stupid even when you ARE winning 🙂

I’ll probably get us right up-to-date tomorrow, but I am off to my half price Mondays cinema at lunch time. The Fantastic Four should appeal to all us comics nerds.

Have fun!


Would have to play on Betfair very carefully I feel Ray….

Today I have:

14:30,Ayr,Raise A Billion
16:00,Ayr,Little Belter
16:00,Ayr,Red Forever

Currently only Little Belter is in odds range.

Only a bet if between 15.0 and 43 just before the off.

Bank at -£3 today.

Ray Thompson

We seem to be singing from different pages of the hymn book. I’ve done these, all within the price range, but I’m being much more careful now, back down to £2 bets…

2.30 Kano’s Ghirl 50/1 ISP, taken 100 on Betfair
Bannock Town 66/1, taken 200
Penny Pursuits 50/1, 100 or BSP at the off

4.00 Two withdrawals mean the prices have altered but…
Little Belter was 20/1, I’m 32 before the WD
Mystical King was 33/1, I’m on 32 after the withdrawal

4.30 Next Edition 25/1, taken 50 BSP

Off to movies this p.m., back at tea-time (ish)

Have fun everyone!


try ayr cut down bets best ratings +horses priced 10/1 or better to 33/1
2 win betfair sp 2.30 raise a billion charavo
300 dark crystal
3.30 jinky
4.00red forever lady cordie
4.30 urbin moon mistitroc
5.00 spirit of the sea angelsabove
10 bets =20


I think because of the low SR I am trying to reduce the number of bets, though I do have yours in my list, I am using some filtering to get down to fewer bets.

So only bet on my list is Little Belter, so would have just one bet today, unless prices move for others.


+24 today


tomorrow carlisl
2.45the westwalfan
3.50miss ranger /polly jackson
4.20 destination aim /moroco
17.25danny oruairc
2.30 threebagsue
5.25ladylunchalot /toptempo
11mbet at 2 bsp

no winners today -22


5.00 almoqatel/ diamond sam /lady pinnicalle
15.35 wind for power/ even stephan/ thatcherite
5.10 scorpio del cardo/ charles de mille /best boy
9x 2= 18 bsb tomorrow

Ray Thompson

July, with 50 more bets than June, still seems poor now with best result on wins at Betfair but still returning only 307 points to 352 bets, that’s minus 45 points overall. Place bets only on these sprang 43 returns at a profit of 29.50 BSP after commission. So, Flat Turf Maiden Stakes are pretty much similar to the Flat Turf Handicaps in that they are both very successful in late March, through April and early June, but seem to be in grip of the bookies’ price setters by mid-June.

Having said that, we’ve just had a 40/1 winner at Gowran Park with a 20/1 2nd paying just under 200 for the winner! Wow, that might tickle the August results nicely, the only previous winner being a 33/1 (60 BSP) this month. It’s all profit, folks!

My next job is to look at the results for Aug 2014 to the end of last year’s season to figure out the winning route through the cards for the rest of THIS year.

Also, a huge task, but as I know from my Jumps System worth it’s weight in gold, and that’s best/worst courses so far in the current year.

Enjoy Yourself! (Not just me who keeps saying that, it’s also the name of that 40/1 shot this evening!) 😀


Tricky stuff Ray, still plugging away at my slimmed down systems I have one running on the Irish flat, but did not select the 40/1, still just had the winer of the 20:00 at GowP, got 19.0 on Betfair – Johann Bach, so very pleased with that. so was at -£3 to £2 point stakes, afar 5 bets since now at +£23

I’m still of the mind that this has to be a very tight system with few selections, I am running at about 3 or four a day, and some days none. So will persevere and see how I progress, I now have systems for UK Flat, UK Chase and UK Hurdle, IRE Flat and IRE Hurdle. I could not get the IRE Chase to work.


Have three bets today, first one just won 🙂

Outlaw Kate 1730 FfosL @ 20.0 which brings it to +£50

other bets tonight are:

19.00 FfosL Bapak Bangsawan
20.00 FfosL Agreement

Have missed few due to slimmed down system but have reduced the number of losers, so far.

Good going tonight, Agreement just won @ 20.0 BPS, so 2/3 tonight.

Running total now +£88 @ £2 per bet.

Ray Thompson

I’ve done a chart of August to end of season (Nov 8th) 2014 from which the tracks with most wins (Handicaps 16/1-33/1 excluding top two and bottom weight/card numbers and Maiden Stakes 16/1 to 66/1) appear to be instantly discernible, but we have to subtract number of actual bets from the totals and that’s going to take me some time to count and record. Newmarket threw up 20 winners in the period Aug 1st to Nov 8th last year, but until we know how many bets in each race, including the losing races of course, we can’t say what the profit/loss is.

I’ve started on this task early this morning and am still in August! I’ll be back when it’s all done…


Will be interesting to read your results, it will no doubt be the number of bets that determine if this is profitable angle.

I”ve been using my tools to look at the Maidens too, and have found these are quite tricky as little or no form to go on and simply backing all the big prices in every race does not look like a good strategy. With lots of tinkering I have come up with two systems that produce around 3 selections per day between them with SR’s of 10% & 13% respectively.

I have three selection tonight in the 17:30 at Newmarket:

Only bet if between 12.0 and 200 for:
Easy Code

Only bet if between 12.0 and 100 for:
Al Hamd

To Betfair prices just before the off.

Ray Thompson

Still stuck in May 2014 to count every bet, but the best wins per track in Aug to 8th Nov of last season looks like this –

Nmk 20, York 12, Ayr 9, Cur 9, Not 9, Bri 8, Don 7, Hay 7, Ham 6, Red 6, San 6, Chs 5, Goo 5, Rip 5, Asc 4, Crl 4, then a few 3-2-1-0s.

Four of those have runners today and winners at this meeting last year (Saturday Aug 16th 2014). If you’d bet on every contender based on my figures: Handicaps 16/1 – 33/1 after discounting the top two and the bottom of the card, and Maiden Stakes (often just referred to as “Maidens” at Irish tracks) and INCLUDING EBF or ebf stakes (European Breeders Fund – contrary to my first impression!) at 16/1 – 66/1 without discounting any card numbers/weights, then this is what we see…

Chs 5 bets on 7 races – some no contenders, returned 1 win at 16/1, 25 BSP
Don 29 bets, 7 races, returned 16/1, 22 BSP
Nmk 7 bets, 7 races – some no contenders – ret 20/1 twice, 25 and 32 BSP
Rip 26 bets, 6 races, ret 20/1, 32 BSP

For 67 bets there was a return of 97 (+30) at ISP, 130 BSP after comm. (+63)

Now That’s what I call Music!

Back to the slog … although I’m seriously thinking of abandoning it and just comparing each day’s meeting with last year’s equivalent.


Ray Thompson

Saturday was seriously bad for me, even with the early Betfair prices. Four winners: Czabo was 33/1 yesterday morning and 60 on Betfair; Polar Forest 25/1, 32; Kastini 16/1, 24 and Syncopate also 16/1 and 25 BSP. And I’m £64 down 🙁

Pontefract today, but I’m leaving it alone as last year from August 1st to end of season it only produced three winners.

So we do not have a feasible system yet. Arrrgh!



I did not have any of the winners yesterday, but only had 5 bets and with 3 from previous day losing that means I am +£72 @ £2 per bet. So have so far restricted the number of bets and the number of losers.

Today I have a few on the jumps, with the systems I developed based on your insightful writings Ray, here are mine for today:

UK_CHASE – only bet if ODDS between 17 & 34 BPS just before the off
15:00 Sthl Moorlands Jack
15:00 Sthl Owen Glendower
15:00 Sthl Montoyas Son

All three for Chase are currently out of odds range for a bet.

HRDL_HND_UK_ Only bet if ODDS between 15 & 40 just before the off
15:30 Sthl Jigsaw Financial
15:30 Sthl Mac Bertie
16:05 Sthl Factor Fifty
17:05 Sthl Monzino
17:05 Sthl Amber Flush
17:35 Sthl Exit To Freedom
17:35 Sthl Lawsons Thorns

17:35 Sthl Solway Trigger

For the Hurdles, only few at the moment are in odds range, but I included them so you can see if the prices change. Currently only three are in odds range (those in bold)

Ray Thompson

Sgt Bull Berry did the biz yesterday at 20/1, so I’m pleased to have taken the early doors 48 at Betfair. Nothing looks of interest today on the investment front, but I’m really looking forward to Wednesday and York, as I’m sure we’ll have a few big priced winners. First day last year saw winners Blaine at 12/1 (opened at 16/1 – PEAKED at 60 on Bf); Dutch Connection 16/1 (32) and Edge Of Sanity 25/1 (opened 33/1 – 55 Bf)

Keep your powder dry until then.

Have fun!


Thought you'd have that one Ray, when it won, I thought that is Ray’s!

Had three yesterday but no winners, so running total stands at +£66

possibles for me today are:

1610 Thirsk Trinity Star
1640 Thirsk Brilliant Boy

Currently these are out of odds range of 15 to 43 just before the off.

Plus trying a system on the Irish Flat:

17:45,Rosc(IE),Bishan Bed
18:15,Rosc(IE),Corker Hill
18:15,Rosc(IE),Catchy Lass
18:45,Rosc(IE),A Twist Of Fate
18:45,Rosc(IE),Focas Mor

18:45,Rosc(IE),Grandma Dotty,
18:45,Rosc(IE),Sea Bank
18:45,Rosc(IE),Perfect Ten,
18:45,Rosc(IE),Mountain Kingdom,
18:45,Rosc(IE),Sacred Dragon,


Currently only ones in Bold are in odds range of 16 to 33, so only five are potential bets just before the off.

Will be watching your system this coming week Ray as there will be a lot bets I suspect.

Ray Thompson

I had 24 short listed over the three handicaps at York today. I noticed the previous three years were all on good to firm going but now we’re good to soft. I removed the hard ground (F&GF) winners and close-up finishers and kept the GS and mud-monkeys. That leaves 14 selections over the three races. I’m going with them.

I’m leaving Carlisle and Ffos Las alone – Crl only had 4 winners with our requirements from August to end of season last year, Ffo only 3.

The big fields at York mean 4 places to anyone doing e/w or place only, but more selections if you’re win only like me.

Enjoy yourselves and don’t get too drunk when you win 🙂

Ray Thompson

Last year at York on day 2 Queen Of Ice won the 4.20 at 20/1, the year before the 3.05 produced Mont Ros at 25/1 (50 BSP). In 2011 the going, as today, was Good to Soft and Navajo Chief slid in at 25/1. Slow but steady profits are definitely possible – or should I say probable – at this excellent annual meeting.

Caspian Prince won at 20/1, early BSP was 40+, I got 36 and with my other 13 selections losing that was enough for a decent day’s work. Glad to see it was one of Matt’s selections too!

Only two handicaps today, I’ve got five possibles at each, including one shared by Matt’s selections today. MyBetfair asks are in brackets with the BSP option at the off (a bit like BOG, except you choose the top price)

3.05 Penitent 25/1 (50)
One Word More 33/1 (70)
Russian Realm 16/1 (25)
Extremity 16/1 (25)
Melvin The Great 22/1 (34)

4.55 Azagal 33/1 (70)
Alexandrakollontai 33/1 (70) (collar and tie, geddit?! – simples!)
Risen Sun 20/1 (32)
Margaret’s Mission 18/1 (28)
Subtle Knife 18/1 (28)

All winners/close-ups on GS-S except one never raced on GS or softer but won on Good, so unproven on this surface.



Well done Ray, I preferred to observe yesterday and today have a few at York i thought i would go with:

Fort Bastion

And one at Stratford in the 1715
Aughcarra. See if the NH strategy is worth a go.

Will give Hamilton a look later as you say looks interesting.

Ray Thompson

No good yesterday but today’s races at both York and Sandown are of interest.

Mistiroc in York’s first (1.55) won on this Friday last year … a maiden at Hamilton! Others I’m on include Emerahldz, Pearl Castle and Buonarroti.

Today here last year the 4.20 Maiden was won by White Lake 25/1 and the 4.55 handicap by Master The World 16/1 (opened at 20s)

My short lists at Sandown are in 3.30 and 4.05 maidens and teensie bets on the outsider in each of the handicaps at 5.15 and 5.50

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Thankfully, My Dream Boat sailed in yesterday at 33/1, 60 BSP (touched 80s) and rescued me with plenty in the account now to finance today’s 50 selections at Chester, Curragh, Sandown and good ol’ York.

Today one year ago (Sat 23rd Aug) there were meetings at The Curragh and – obviously – the last day at York. Winners at Curragh included a 20/1 in the 2.35 maiden and 12/1 (16/1 all day before the off) in the 4.50 H/C. At York there were 2 winning H/Cs – 2.40 and 3.50 at 16/1 (opened 20/1) and 20/1.

I’m confident that THIS Saturday will be better than the last one!

Have fun! 🙂

P.S. Good filters: Wins at Curragh last year were ALL 16/1 or 20/1 except an early August 50/1 and a late season 25/1.
At York, the 8 August wins were all 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1. Late season were 20/1 and 3x 25/1.
ALL returned MUCH higher prices at BSP.


Ray Thompson

Another small profit yesterday. Today, in line with the filter mentioned yesterday, at Curragh I’m backing 16/1 and 20/1 runners ONLY in the four handicaps and the Maiden. There are six possibles at the moment, but the filter is based on ISP.

Because the early prices aren’t always the same at the off as they were earlier, and to tie in with last year’s results, I’ll be pushing the Betfair win buttons that correspond with the bookies prices of 16/1 and 20/1 to make that bit more profit.

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Small profit again yesterday. This evening’s two right-handers, Crl & Lei, have potential I think. Carlisle’s 4 wins last year in August were 16/1, 18/1, 20/1 and 22/1. Leicester only had three wins late last year but – oh boy! – they were biggies at 50/1 (95), 33/1 (60) and 33/1 (65).

By excluding the lefties and the really obvious no-hopers (gulp!), I’ve whittled the four bigger fields down to 3 max choices each, leaving 3 races with 2 selections and two with one pick each, a total of 12 bets.

I’ll put them up here later after I see how the weather/going is by tea time-ish but well before the off.


Ray Thompson

Crl 5.05 Petergate 25/1 40
Dalby Spoof 20/1 32
Highfield Lass 40/1 65

Crl 5.40 Jazzy 25/1 34
Seaperle 33/1 50
Silent Diva 16/1 24

Crl 6.10 Glen Lea 25/1 40
Macarthur’s Park 50/1 100

Crl 7.10 Under Approval 22/1 34
Pickle Lilly Pearl 18/1 29

Lei 5.25 Frank Cool 25/1 40
Demand Respect 40/1 65
Pastoral Star

Lei 5.55 Azizu 25/1 40
Tulip Dress 16/1 30

Lei 6.25 Captain Swift 16/1 25

Lei 6.55 Mininggold 16/1 24
David’s Beauty 25/1 48

Lei 7.55 Anastazia 18/1 28
Celtic Sixpence 20/1 32

Have fun!

Ray Thompson

Dalby Spoof saved us with a reasonable profit!

Looking for a good swimmer today 🙂

A Maiden might be worth a small touch – just for a laugh, you understand – and A Definite Diamond at 100/1 currently (2.30 Chp) has my £2 at 220 on Betfair.

It definitely didn’t like the Good to Firm on it’s only turf outing.

Nothing else to say really, just hope they don’t abandon.

Ray Thompson

Much nicer day for racing with Catterick and Musselburgh this afternoon.

While Mus is better for H/Cs(H) than Maidens(M), Cat is equally good at either.

Mus 2.00M Duncan Of Scotland 20/1
Cat 2.10M Spike 20/1
Mo Wonder 33/1
Mus 2.30H Docali 20/1
Cat 2.40M Angrove Fatrascal 22/1
Anieres Boy 20/1
Bionic Indian 25/1
Mus 3.00H Searchlight 20/1
Cat 3.10H War Poet 25/1
My Destination 33/1
Mus 3.30H That Be Grand 20/1
Cat 4.10H Amis Reunis 16/1
Betty Boo 22/1
Mus 4.30H Geanie Mac 20/1
Mus 5.15H Galvanize 33/1
Perfect Peak 16/1

Only need ONE to show a profit on the day, and all that fun. Evening races next after I’ve had a little study. I’ve also got the 2014/2015 results and a comparison piece that should hopefully spark some more filters/winners. A look at 50/1+ winners – are they worth betting on? We’ll see.

Later! 🙂

Ray Thompson

During 2014’s turf flat racing season, 39 MAIDEN Stakes wins at 50+ were recorded on Betfair, for a return of 5,010 points. In the same season, 33 Handicap wins at 50+ BSP returned 2,467 points.

101 other Maidens won in the 16/1 to 40/1 range
237 other Handicaps won in the 16/1 to 40/1 range

What we need to know now of course is how many BETS were actually placed in those four categories and how much was returned from the lower two.

You’ll be pleased to hear I’m on it, but it’s quite time consuming and you’ll have to take them as I complete them from each month throughout 2014 so that we can do a detailed comparison with THIS year. I’ve already discovered that in April 2014 53 points could have been saved by NOT betting in any Maiden with an odds-on favourite.

More soon – tomorrow I expect.

Ray Thompson

G’day, and two Aprils to compare – actually starting from 29th March 2014 and 28th this year.

Last year’s Maidens in April (didn’t Josef Locke sing a song called that? 🙂 ):
543 bookie bets (none in races with an odds-on favourite) returned 306 points (-237) SP to 6 winners, but 773 bets on 9 races including those with odds-on faves at Betfair gave back a superb 430 points profit (408 after 5% commission).

This year’s April Maidens returned 13 winners at 343 SP from 118 bets (+225pts) with Betfair giving out 655 (+622.28 after comm)

This shows the importance of getting the best return on your investment. If you aren’t using Betfair, then make sure you use bookies offering B.O.G. In 2014 there were 194 more bets with odds-on favourites. Of those, only three gave system winners. They were at 100/1, 25/1 and 16/1, giving a huge loss on the 194 at SP. Betfair, however, paid 620, 48 and 24 for those three. Go figure.

Flat turf handicaps in the same period gave 460 bets from which, having struck off the bottom weight and the TWO top weights (top two and bottom one on the race cards), brought home exactly 500 on SP (plus 40pts) and 782 at Betfair, or 742.90 after comm, a profit of +282.90.

Before I start on each of the other months in the season, I thought we should look first at last September’s results in both those areas of possible profit in order to sharpen our tactics for the coming month.

More profit yesterday and hopefully as least as much today!


Ray Thompson

17 bets today, 4.55Y Haalan w.22/1, 38BSP (36.10 post comm) = 19.90 points profit today.


Genesis of a Betting System (Part 1)

Back in the good old days, before Geegeez Gold came into our world, this website was a home to betting system reviews and betting systems. Such approaches are considered terribly out of fashion at the moment, usurped by ten-a-penny tipsters and the occasional genuine advisory service.

This article is the first in a serialization of a thread in the Gold forum dedicated to the development of a betting system. It is a collaborative tale, spanning more than 800 posts (!), a few of which are offered for your consideration.

The purpose, aside from showcasing one of the less well known elements of the Gold provision (Gold users, you do visit the forum, don't you?!), is to invite readers to think outside of the normal top of the market 'gimme a winner' framework, and instead to go panning for, erm, gold elsewhere.

A post from the weekend looked like this:


But there's where the team is at now... THIS is how it all started, a year ago almost to the day. This was Ray's introduction, posted by me...

Matt Bisogno

SINISTER HORSES FOR SINISTER COURSES (A gift from Gold user, MONDO RAY, for my GG buddies on my 70th Birthday, 22 July)

Hi, my name is Ray Thompson, nicknamed Mondo because my idiot but loveable employees back in my shop-owning days refused to believe that the Thompson boys’ FULL given names were Ken, Eddie and Ray. No middle names, no lah-de-dah names, no extras whatsoever. Simples.

You may remember me from classics like “The Tortoise And The Hare” and “Placed To Win”. The first was a free (and profitable) Geegeez tipping service which evolved into the second, an improved but fee-paying service. Placed To Win was short-lived even though it was profit-making. The reason? I may have a degree in psychology, but I’d not factored in how many people don’t care about the occasional winners at 20/1, 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1+, they’d rather have a winner NOW, even if it’s odds-on!

I’d explained to Matt back in the day precisely how my system worked and he was so impressed with it that he agreed to publish it. The name Placed To Win was Matt’s suggestion, as there was also clear profit to be made by the many more placers than winners given, all at a minimum 5 on Betfair.

Hey, I’m just rabbiting on here. What I’d like to do for my birthday is give y’all some of the Essential Things You Should Know in the betting game. I don’t want your money, This is a big thank-you to Matt & Chris for their encouragement and help, their ability to give people faith in themselves, without condescension or beating around the bush (er… is that even legal these days?). As I’m sure you all know, Geegeez is the best thing that’s happened in this field for …ummm… donkeys years!?

Some of you will say I’m stating the bleedin’ obvious at some of these steps, but bear with me and I think you just might be surprised at what you’ve missed, what’s hiding in plain sight. Actually, I will start with the bleedin’ obvious: you want to make money. I want to make money. You want to make BIG money and you’re prepared to find your own system and improve it as you progress. So, whether that means following media tipsters, buying tips or systems from professionals or inventing your OWN system/method, then I want to help you.

My own system took a long time – many years of trial and error (and terror!) – to work satisfactorily, and here’s a thing: it keeps getting better! So, first rule – KEEP ACCURATE RECORDS. As Matt knows from some photos I once sent him, I started scribbling things down in a schoolbook type thing from around the mid-90s until I realised it was pointless. So I bought some sturdy hardback red ‘n’ blacks (they’re not expensive) and kept every single bet, one per line, with the date, the venue code (similar to airport codes, 3 letters per track, eg Ain, Asc, Ayr, Ban, Crl, Crt, Cat, Chl, Chp – you get the drift, found on every form page in the RP’s online service. All my record keeping is done online now of course.

Okay: Date, Course, Race Time, Selection, Industry price, Betfair price, Betfair place, result (again ISP), and BfSP Win after commission. A page one entry 5th Jan 2011 (first winner of that year) reads:

5th Sth 1440 Bromhead 12/1, 19.6, 6. W11/2 +£93.60 (to my £5 stake post(5%)-commission)

That’s a start. I quickly learned that I also needed to record GOING, CLASS, TRIP and possibly one of the most important things you’ll ever learn about picking winners. Ever noticed that when a nailed-on favourite that no tipster or punter can see beyond gets turned over, the shock waves resonate throughout Horseracingland? Tearful telly pundits go into meltdown and yes, even some trainers wonder wtf just happened. A Day Of Mourning is called and the talking heads have an emotional field day.

Well, I know why a large percentage get beat, and it’s to do with the horses mentioned at the top of this piece. Not those sinister horses of the Apocalypse. We know their jockeys are called Conquest, War, Famine and Death. But the horses themselves are more prosaically referred to as White, Red, Black and Pale (or in the Pagan/Christian mashup, Dasher, Dancer, Prancer and Vixen). The Sinister, and their opposites, the Dexter are simply, like most animals, the left- or right-handed. And just a few are ambidextrous.
Lefties perform better and tend to win at left-handed tracks, righties perform better and… you get the gist.

So here’s the big (not so-) secret to improving your choices/selections: Make a note of whether the track is LH or RH before you select your contender, making sure that your choice is not only au fait with the distance, the class, the going, the jockey, the trainer, and the whatever other requirements you er, require, but also, and VERY importantly, it’s at a course that fits your pick’s predilection in running.

During the last year and especially in the Jumps doldrums known as “summer” I’ve begun studying flat and all-weather systems, with a view to developing something equally profitable for the non-jumps season rather than wasting my time drinking cider and bourbon while topping up my tan on the sun-drenched beaches here in Cornwall while applauding the barely-clothed fillies who … erm, I’ll pause there. I’m also prepared to give freely of my jumps system picks along with brief reasons for the choices for the few Summer jump meetings until the NH season proper returns in the Autumn.

Do remember to bet sensibly and, mainly, have fun!

Mondo Ray


Couldn’t agree more about L/H – R/H preferences. To which i’d add Galloping or undulating, particularly relevant when the former doesn’t come in to play (on a straight track!)

Ray Thompson

Sorry about the delay, a little thing called my 70th which included meeting and greeting friends and relatives and some particularly powerful (8.2%ABV) cider all kinda kept me busy until a necessary early night was upon me. So, for the moment, here are MY system selections for today, both at my best-performing summer venue, Worcester. Eight of the 10 system wins here (at BSP: 32, 40, 14, 21, 50, 22, 32 and 19) were in May, June and July, the other two both in Sept (15 & 60). The other jumps meet is at Limerick, a terrific winning track for me but NEVER had a winner in the Summer.

Wor 2.40 My Nosy Rosy ISP 20/1, BSP 32 or take SP at race off, 5.7 BSP
place. This is a chase, and the system is currently 22 points in profit chasing here. (£110 to my fiver stakes, personally I’m only doing win win bets this year, but placers are always profitable too)

Wor 4.55 In The Crowd 25/1, 50(orSP), 6. Hurdles at Wor (as this race is) are showing a profit of 122 pts (£610 to my fiver)

Have fun with these, get on early if you can and BOG if you don’t have a Betfair account yet. Meanwhile, I’ve got an old flat handicap system to show you which I’ll use to show you the flaws in hastily thought-out methods of betting. I’ll be back with that mid-afternoon after my morning stroll.


Everyone calls me Paul

Cheers Ray. I’m already on Stafford Charlie in the 2.40, so gonna give that race a miss, but I’ve had a small go at the Worcester race (e/w), even though I also have a selection (Wak a Turtle) in that one…but only in a win L15.
Good luck and thanks for your insights. I’ll post in the forum to let everyone know you’re “live” here.

Ray Thompson

What is wrong with this picture?

Below is a “sample of handicap winners” recorded on continuous days of flat turf racing until the 100 was reached, divided into weights – A being top weight in the race it has won, . The largest field was 29 runners, the smallest 6, with the “vast” majority having 10 plus runners. Identical weights are alphabetically listed on the card, and are thus here depicted. Overweight and apprentice allowances are ignored.

Survey of 100 Flat Handicaps
A 4-1 6-1 7-1 8-1 10-1 16-1
B 9-4 4-1 11-2 7-1
C 5-2 5-1 13-2 13-2 7-1 15-2 10-1 12-1 12-1 16-1
D 6-4 100-30 4-1 9-2 9-2 5-1 6-1 6-1 6-1 13-2 13-2 10-1 12-1 12-1 12-1 14-1
E 3-1 9-2 6-1 13-2 7-1 12-1 14-1
F 6-4 9-2 9-2 11-2 9-1 12-1 16-1
G 13-8 7-1 14-1
H 5-2 3-1 4-1 6-1 11-1 16-1
I 5-2 11-4 5-1 9-1 25-1
J 6-1 7-1 14-1
K 4-1 5-1 13-2 10-1 14-1 16-1 25-1
L 11-2 14-1 33-1
M 2-1 7-1 10-1 11-1 16-1 16-1 20-1
N 11-2 15-2
O 6-1 13-2 12-1 20-1 20-1 20-1 33-1
P 8-1
Q 15-8 3-1 7-1
R 11-2
U 16/1
W 12/1
STVYXZ – no runners

The “system” derived from the above states that those showing “big price” winners are anomalous. Which to me appears to suggest that if we ignore them they’ll probably go away. Also, “There is a very good reason why the top two positions have done relatively badly.” Apparently, this is because the handicapper never forgets and tends to come down hard on any horse showing an exceptional run of form or wins an exceptional race. Hmm, fascinating, ain’t it?

40% of the winners fall in the C to F inclusive band and is therefore the bookies vulnerable point. Really?

This goes on with the following table of prices of winners:
Up to 2-1 5 winners
9-4 to 4-1 14 “
9-2 to 15-2 39 “
8-1 to 10-1 9 “
11-1 to 14-1 17 “
16-1 to 20-1 12 “
22-1 + 4 winners

Therefore, derived solely from SP, the SR is 48% from the 9-2 to 10-1, so this “should be the focus of the punter’s attack.”

My dear fellow GG-ers, your mission should you choose to accept it is to tell me what is right or wrong with this (old, but not as old as me ? ) system, ready for my perusal when I return to Geegeedom on the morrow.

Cheers, guys, and yes, I’ll be giving you MY take on it.

Everyone calls me Paul

Hi Ray,

I’m no expert (and certainly no systems man), but the obvious flaws in the analysis – helped by your hints with the inverted commas – would seem to relate to the fact that there is no specific breakdown of number of entries, leaving a potential bias against the runners / letters in the latter half of the alphabet, and the belief that we’re not supposed to like big priced winners! Don’t know where they’re going with the price range.
Other than that, please tell us, mate.

NB my system is to back the 15th heaviest horse (“o”) where applicable…124.5 points minimum returned from a maximum – and realistically much lower – 100 points bet. Easy money haha 😉

Your first 30 days for just £1


My take is in the groups C to F there are more winners, however am i missing something? But would there not be more loosers in this range therefore yes more winners but, with so many loosers in C to F then this would reduce profit and roi. Yes nice to get the winners but i think i would have to back a lot of loosers to get a winner.
In which case i would be paying the bookies!

Ray Thompson

Thanks for your replies, with which I totally agree.

My first response on reading this system was that 100 consecutive results is nowhere near a meaningful sample! Then, because I tend to concentrate on outsiders, I noticed that from the 40 in the given range, eleven of them (27% of the 40) are priced at 12/1 to 16/1 incl. Now THAT’S an angle worth looking more closely at! Furthermore, 33 of the 100 races were won by 11/1 to 33/1 shots. That, too, is pretty interesting. Another weird (sinister?) thing that I find really hard to accept is the contention that there are NO odds-on shots in 100 winners. Not that the latter fazes me at all, because I’m not really too interested in the bottom half of the spectrum anyway.

As Tigris said, so many losers with that C to F range, and I would reckon that the majority of the field of each race would also be in the 9/2 to 10/1 range, so that leaves us searching for a filter (or filters) to detect a possible winner.

Anyhoo, I’m going to replicate, actually no, I’m going to do a much larger sample than the one we’ve discussed, and from a much more up-to-date year. In fact – with a view to studying a whole year of actual results – I’m thinking 2014 and I’ll start at 1st January of course. I’ll come back to you all when I’ve finished, which might not be today because I have my Friday club this afternoon (A nerds discussion group where we put the world to rights over a pint or three. Members are required to bring to the group a trivia fact every week that none of the rest have heard before. and yes, we all ALL ardent quizzers!)

Back tomorrow with an update. Live long and prosper, as that nice Spock guy used to say.

Ray Thompson

Good afternoon, here for your perusal and comparison are the first 100 results (excluding a dead heat) of last year.

Turf Flat Handicaps 2014
1. 5/4 5/2 5/2 11/4 11/4 3/1 4/1 9/2 9/2 9/1
2. Evs 6/4 7/4 15/8 9/4 9/4 3/1 3/1 4/1 9/2 6/1 10/1
3. Evs 6/4 7/4 7/2 5/1 6/1 10/1 11/1 11/1 12/1 16/1 20/1
4. 3/1 3/1 5/2 9/2 8/1 12/1 25/1 25/1
5. 13/8 3/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 12/1 33/1
6. 3/1 7/2 4/1 4/1 9/2 6/1 7/1 7/1 8/1 14/1 16/1 20/1
7. 2/1 9/4 5/2 9/2 10/1
8. 7/2 9/2 5/1 5/1 5/1 10/1 11/1 14/1 14/1 16/1 16/1
9. 9/4 5/2 3/1 6/1 8/1 12/1 20/1 20/1 33/1
10. 7/2 12/1
11. 13/8 11/4 9/2 7/1 16/1
12. 7/1 8/1 20/1 25/1
16. 7/1 12/1
23. 12/1

Now, I see huge differences from the old system 100 I showed you earlier.

My reason for wanting to compare the two is that clearly, if we’re to build our own system from scratch, we’re gonna need a bigger boat (metaphorically speaking of course!), a helluva lot more information, facts, stats, filters and so on before we can – to continue the metaphor – launch an unsinkable system that will make us a lot of profit during the remainder of the summer. I bet there are a lot of specialist craftsmen (and women) in GGdom who are experts at (or in) those facts and maths areas of expertise, people who can find things, others who’ll put them together, seers who will predict from the amassed information the possible pitfalls, windfalls and pratfalls, as well as serendipity seekers, opportunity observers, dowsers, speculators, folks who know a good thing when they see it!

Not a lot to ask, is it? 🙂


Ray, don’t quite follow this table what does 1 to 23 mean, cannot be months? as there would be 12, perhaps just being thick, but not clear how to read this table?

Ray Thompson

And we’ll need this distribution to figure further percentages.

Up to 2/1 – 11 winners
9/4 to 4/1 – 28
9/2 to 15/2 – 24
8/1 to 10/1 – 9
11/1 to 14/1 – 13
16/1 to 20/1 – 10
22/1 plus – 5

Ray Thompson

Tigris: sorry buddy, this is to match the old system where 1 is top weight on the card, 2 is No.2 on the card etc., down to 23rd on the card. It would’ve helped had the original system given the number of runners in each race, but as it didn’t, then I also left it out of my up-to-date copy of the old ‘un.

I’m glad you brought that up, as it’s yet another fault with the original that I can rectify with my newer figures. I’ll do that this afternoon. Cheers!


Got it, my take without putting all this in a spreadsheet, would be to focus on numbers 3 to 9 and bet on horses with prices of between 11/1 and 20/1, this would give most value and ROI, I think.


Done a bit more research on Flat Handicaps in the range 2 to 10 weight, and odds 11/1 to 20/1, I discovered a system that has 1 to 2 selection per day and a sr 12%, so quite a few loosing runs, but with bigger prices, with a ROI of 90%, out of interest the system produced a selection tonight: 20:15, Salis, Upstaging, look forward to more of your wise words Ray.

Ray Thompson

My reply yesterday seems to have disappeared! I’ll try again! Tigris, almost there with Upstaging (2nd 8/1).

Field (Runners)
4. 5/2 12/1*
5. 1/1 5/2 3/1
6. 13/8 11/4 12/1*
7. 9/4 11/4 3/1
8. 7/4 9/4 5/2 10/3 7/2 9/2 5/1 6/1 6/1 16/1 16/1
9. 5/4 9/4 3/1 3/1 4/1 9/2 10/1 25/1
10. 1/1 2/1 5/2 3/1 3/1 9/2 9/2 9/2 5/1 6/1 14/1 20/1 33/1
11. 9/4 3/1 7/2 4/1 9/2 9/2 5/1 6/1 8/1 9/1 14/1 16/1 20/1 25/1 33/1
12. 13/8 15/8 3/1 7/2 5/1 6/1 7/1 10/1 12/1 14/1
13. 7/4 5/1 8/1 8/1 11/1 16/1
14. 4/1 7/1 7/1 11/1 20/1 25/1
15. 11/4 7/2 10/1 12/1
16. 9/2 6/1 9/1 12/1 20/1
17. 13/8 5/2 7/1 20/1
18. 7/1 11/1
19. 7/1
20. 4/1
22. 10/1
23. 8/1 12/1
*Rank outsider of race

Here are the wins by class and distance:

Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Class 5
5f 2 2* + 2 1* + 1 3
6f 2 1* + 2 1* + 3 1* + 1
7f 1 4 5 2* + 3 1* + 5
8f 1* 4 2* + 3 6
9f 2
10f 2 2* + 3 3* + 2 3* + 3
11f 2 1* 2
12f 1* 1* + 1 2 4
13f 1
14f 2 1
16+ 1* + 1 1*
Tot 1 12 29 27 31

Coming up number of RUNNERS in Outsider Category.

Back soon.

Ray Thompson

Ah poo! It clearly didn’t like my easy-to-read spread and has just crunched them up into an undecipherable mess! Initially, it wouldn’t take a grid with figures in, now it just squishes them all to the left! Ignore that class/distance attempt, then. That’s only a couple of hours work I’ll never get back.



OK Ray, been doing a bit more research and a bit more refining and come up with Tigers Home for 1640 Ayr today. It’s at 12/1 generally.

Been refining a few things and from your stats, could argue to focus on 8 to 12 runner races, and 5f to 8f could be a niche to explore.


tigris, you're on for a gold star mate, top of the class.


Thanks sondrio2, i’ll have another attempt today, been refining and triangluating systems so should be fun!


I’ve figured it out, it’s all to do with the word ‘sinister’.

Left handed horses for left handed courses.

Job done! 🙂


Sinister in deed Gallou!

Have been exploring further Ray, and have been looking at systems based on odds and now have two systems running on different platforms, so the use different paramaters, but what I am attempting to do now us ‘triangulate’ the two systems and looking to see where they identify the sane runners.

System 1 today identified 5 runners and system 2 identified 6 runners.

Three runners were common to both systems, so the two that align with all parameters are:

1410 Bev Generous Dream
1620 Good Lady Gibralter

The next runner met all but the odds check but was so close had to unclude it:

1620 Good Perfect Muse

I would bet three singles to win and two ew doubles for value.

Look forward to your next installment Ray.

Ray Thompson

Okay, here’s the latest. I am a happy bunny. We have a system! Well, almost…

I began by looking at the possible returns from both ISP – Industry (bookies) Starting Price and BSP – Betfair SP if we bet £2 win on every horse in a flat turf handicap race that was 16/1+. Almost there, with 447 bets, that’s an outlay of £894 (not all at once!) The returns were interesting with £596 ISP and £884 BSP returned, or -£298 and -£10 respectively

Now, as the winners were actually 16/1 to 33/1 and not bigger, and with no winners from the top two weights, what about not backing anything bigger than 33/1 and no contenders in the top two weights (1 & 2 on the card)? Well, that’s removing 95 of the bets leaving 342 bets for the same returns! And that, my friends, gives us a 3-week PROFIT of £254 to ISP, or a staggering £542 on Betfair (after commission).

I now only need to run it quickly through the first 100 results for THIS year, for comparison, and on into the rest of the season so far. Personally, I’m also quite happy to start today with the wee £2 win bets, but you guys might prefer to paper-trade until I can get all updated since that first century this year.

In the words of the song, “I’m happy, hope you’re happy too…”


Thus, at the end of part one, we have an embryonic system, albeit one based on a very small sample size.

In the next installment, the guys will further shape and refine their system as more information becomes available.

[Important note: don't be too quick to pre-judge this, until you've read the whole serial...]

Back tomorrow with Part 2.