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Sat TV Trends: 30th July 2016

A big day at Glorious Goodwood with their final day of their meeting, while the C4 cameras also take in two races at Newmarket – As always Andy Newton’s on hand with all the LIVE Saturday C4 race trends…………………

 

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NEWMARKET (JULY) (C4 & RUK)

2.15 - British Stallion Studs EBF Chalice Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f CH4

Your first 30 days for just £1

10/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/10 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Had won no more than twice before
8/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Had won over 1m2 or further in the past
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 6/1
Note: From 2014 back the race was run at Newbury

 2.50 - British EBF Fillies´ Nursery Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

7/8 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
7/8 – Carried 9-3 or less
6/8 – Had won at least won race before
6/8 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
5/8 – Won by a March or April foal
4/8 – Drawn in stall 9 or 10
4/8 – Returned a double-figure price
3/8 – Unplaced favourites
2/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 9/1


GLORIOUS GOODWOOD (C4/RUK)


2.00 - Qatar Stewards´ Sprint Stakes (Handicap) (Consolation Race for Qatar Stewards´ Cup) Cl2 6f CH4

12/12 – Didn’t win their last race
12/12 – Raced at Goodwood previously
12/12 – Won at least 3 times during their career
11/12 – Had won over 6f previously
10/12 – Had 4 or more runs that season
8/12 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
7/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Winning Distance - 1 ¼ lengths or more
6/12 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/12 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
6/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
4/12 – Won by the David Nicholls yard
3/12 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/12 – Ridden by Adrian Nicholls
2/12 – Favourites (none in the last 10 years)
0/12 – 3 year-old winners
The last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more
7 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
Horse from stall 3 has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 14/1

2.35 - Qatar (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f CH4

12/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
9/12 – Favourites
8/12 – Rated between 85-93
7/12 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
6/12 – Won over 1m4f previously
6/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
4/12 – Won their last race
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Ridden by Seb Sanders
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
0/12 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
7 of the last 10 winners came from stall 10 or lower
Horses from stall 10 have won 2 of the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 8/1

3.10 - Qatar Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f192y CH4

12/12 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the market
11/12 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Aged either 3 or 4 years-old
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Had won over 1m2f previously
8/12 – Won between 2-4 times before
8/12 – Favourites
7/12 – Had won a Group One race previously
6/12 – Favourites
3/12 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden (inc last 3 runnings)
2/12 – Won by the Sir Michael Stoute yard
2/12 – Won by the Aidan O’Brien yard
2/12 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
7 of the last 10 winners were drawn 7 or lower Stalls 1
6 and 7 have won 6 of the last 10 renewals
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

3.45 – Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Had won over 6f before
12/13 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
11/13 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
11/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/13 – Placed favourites (top 4)
8/13 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
7/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/13 – Raced at Goodwood before
3/13 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/13 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – William Haggas
0/13 – Winning 3 year-olds
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1
8 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
Stall 18 has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
7 of the last 9 top 2 finishers came from a double-figure stall
Since 1978 all bar one winner has been aged 6 or younger

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Palmerston - Won well for us two runs back beating a fair yardstick in Fort Jefferson. That was over a mile so the return to this trip after trying 1m2f last time is a big plus. Yes, 5lbs higher than that win and higher grade but the horse is very well at home and I think we head here with a great each-way chance at a nice price. We've a few out today, but this one looks the value e/w bet from all my runners."
Mick Appleby

23/07/16 1st 20/1 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2016

Thursday's Result :

5.10 Nottingham : Oriental Relation @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led over 1f out, son ridden, headed final furlong, no extra)

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thikriyaat at 11/4 BOG

Why?

They say that if at first, you don't succeed, you should try again, so it's a second visit of the week to Glorious Goodwood and here's why...

Thikriyaat really caught the eye when making up plenty of ground to finish second behind Ribchester in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Ascot, just over six weeks ago.

He'd met serious trouble in running from the 19-runner field and this ended his perfect 3 from 3 start to his career, which kicked off with a win over this 1m trip. So we know he gets the trip and the way he finished last time suggests the step back up is right and with fewer rivals to contend with, a clearer passage might be all that's needed.

He was eventually just over 2 lengths adrift of Ribchester that day, but we can draw confidence in the latter's narrow (NK & SH) defeat in 3rd place behind The Gurkha and Galileo Gold in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes here over this course and distance on Wednesday.

His yard is in great form with 7 winners from 19 (36.8% SR) over the last 7 days, including 3 wins from 7 Class 1 races and stablemate Ulysses won a Group 3 contest here on Wednesday.

Looking slightly further than the last week, Sir Michael Stoute's male runners here at Goodwood are 28/121 (23.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+18.3% ROI) profits. Of particular relevance today are the facts that, like Thikriyaat...

  • 3/4 yr olds are 26/96 (27.1%) for 41.2pts (+42.9%)
  • 16-60 days since last run : 22/82 (26.8%) for 39.2pts (47.8%)
  • at 5/1 or shorter : 24/77 (31.2%) for 11.74pts (+15.25%)
  • fields of 7-12 runners : 20/68 (29.4%) for 31.4pts (+46.2%)
  • in 3yo only races : 15/55 (27.3%) for 19.2pts (+34.9%)
  • Class 1 : 8/36 (22.2%) for 13.8pts (+38.4%)
  • beaten by 1 to 4 lengths LTO : 7/24 (29.2%) for 7.32pts (+30.5%)
  • 2nd LTO : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.28pts (+23%)
  • at group 3 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 9.73pts (+60.8%)

AND...if you backed all of Sir Michael's males here since 2009 who were aged 3 or 4, priced at 7/1 or shorter in fields of 7 to 17 runners some 16 to 60 days after their last run, you'd have bagged yourself 17 winners from 39 (43.6% SR) and a £20 stake on each of them would have made you a cool £650 at an ROI of 83.4%.

Oh, and of those 39 runners in the niche micro above, Group 3 runners are 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 13pts (+185.5%), obviously including Ulysses from Wednesday!

...all of which points to a 1pt win bet on Thikriyaat at 11/4 BOG which was available in over a dozen places at 11.15pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.20 Yarmouth : Theydon Bois @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 15/8 (Led, took keen hold and hung badly right final circuit, ridden and headed over 3f out, virtually unrideable and no danger after)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG

Why?

This 2yr old colt's figures currently read 13221 ahead of this Group 3 contest, with a half length defeat in a Group 2 race and then a win in a Listed contest 26 days ago his last two outings, so he's in good nick.

Franny Norton was on board LTO taking the partnership's record to 2 wins from 3 (131) and that augurs well for today, as does his yard's record here at Goodwood in general.

But I want to focus on trainer Mark Johnston's recent record at this Festival meeting, where since 2008, he has had 27 winners from 234 runners (11.5% SR) producing level stakes profits of 112.4pts at an ROI of 48.1%, from which...

  • male runners are 23/185 (12.4%) for 107.6pts (+58.1%)
  • on good ground : 17/120 (14.2%) for 91.5pts (+76.2%)
  • those last seen 11-28 days ago are 16/117 (13.7%) for 98.3pts (+84%)
  • when he has had 2 runners in the same race : 12/72 (16.7%) for 71pts (+98.6%)
  • LTO winners are 8/58 (13.8%) for 32.8pts (+56.6%)

AND...since 2012, males on good ground 11 to 28 days after their last run are 5/10 (50% SR) for 69.4pts (+694% ROI).

Plus with Goodwood not being the easiest track to ride, we need a jockey well versed in the nuances of this venue, so step forward Franny Norton with his 14 winners from 92 rides (15.2% SR) here since 2011 that have generated level stakes profits of 82.7pts (+89.9% ROI), from which...

  • males are 11/63 (17.5%) for 88.5pts (+140.4%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 10/41 (24.4%) for 25.9pts (+63.1%)
  • with males at 8/1 or shorter winning 7 of 29 (24.1%) for 14.7pts (+50.6%)

...which all means, it's a 1pt win bet on The Last Lion at 100/30 BOG from any one of the half dozen firms offering that price at 6.45pm, although to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 19th May 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.15 Bath : Zeeoneandonly @ 3/1 BOG (=2.7/1 after 10p R4) 2nd at 5/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bedrock at 6/1 BOG.

Why?

Bedrock is trained by William Haggas who excels at producing winners in the odds range that I like to bet at (where possible!). Since the start of the 2008 season, this consistent yard has produced 142 winners from the 682 (20.8% SR) Flat handicappers sent off in the 5/2 to 10/1 odds range. And these runners have more than paid for themselves, producing 187 pts level stakes profits at an appealing ROI of 27.4%.

Closer analysis of these runners, with this race in mind, shows that...

  • those running within 6 to 25 days of their last outing are 78/330 (23.6% SR) for 173.5pts (+52.6% ROI)
  • those racing on good to firm ground are 59/254 (23.2% SR) for 97.7pts (+38.5% ROI)
  • and those ridden by Ryan Moore are 14/49 (28.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+71.9% ROI)

And those racing on good to firm ground, 6 to 25 days after their last run are 30/126 (23.8% SR) for 67.7pts (+53.7% ROI), with Ryan Moore riding 4 winners from 11 (36.4% SR) for 13.13pts (+119.4% ROI) profit.

More specifically now, William Haggas' record here at Goodwood over the last 3 and a bit seasons stands at 15 winners from 55 (27.3% SR) for 22.9pts (+41.6% ROI) profit, of which...

  • males are 11/38 (29% SR) for 23.7pts (+62.4% ROI)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 28.3pts (+94.2% ROI)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 13/28 (46.4% SR) for 20.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • on good to firm ground, they are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 2.44pts (+22.2% ROI)
  • those ridden by Ryan Moore are 4/10 (40% SR for 4.63pts (+46.3% ROI)
  • and those running at Class 4 are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 4.5pts (+64.3% ROI)

And males who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and are now 6/1 and shorter have 5 wins and a place from 6 runs, producing profits 8.9pts (+148.3% ROI), from which they are 2/3 at Class 4, 2/3 under Ryan Moore and 2/2 on good to firm ground.

And finally, since the start of the 2012 campaign, 3 to 5 yrs old running on the Flat with three consecutive top 3 finishes behind them, but were losers (ie 2nd or 3rd) LTO 6-30 days ago, returned to winning ways on 310 of 1462 (21.2% SR) occasions, generating 329.2pts (+22.5% ROI) level stakes profit in the process.

Of those 1462 runners...

  • 3yr olds won 227 of 1060 (21.4% SR) for 268pts (+25.3% ROI)
  • and those finishing 3rd LTO won 131 of 666 (19.7% SR) for 203.8pts (+30.6% ROI)

From which, 3yr olds who were 3rd LTO are 85/479 (17.8% SR) for 130.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which...
...those racing in 3yo only races are 53/316 (16.8% SR) for 150.2pts (+47.5% ROI), of which...
...those racing at trips of 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs are 20/118 (17% SR) for 109.6pts (+92.9% ROI)

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Bedrock at 6/1 BOG with Coral, who were the best priced at 5.10pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 30th April 2016

Friday's Result :

5.20 Lingfield: Lightning Charlie @ 7/2 BOG WON at 13/8 (Tracked leader, led over 1f out, stayed on strongly to win by a length). And this means that despite April being a very difficult month, we're actually just one winner away from making profit! Unfortunately we've only one day left, so our last shot and...

...Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.15 Goodwood

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Marjurie at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

This looks for all the world like a two horse race between our pick and Bateel, with both coming off 220+ day absences. Bateel's formline of 111 looks impressive, but closer analysis says she's only ever raced at Class 5 and Class 3 and the horses she has beaten haven't amounted to much on turf.

Miss Marjurie, however, looks to be in her element today and it is her past achievements under today's conditions that provide the fairly simple reasons behind the selection.

She won this race last year, when also returning from a lengthy break, giving her a 1 from 1 record over course and distance. She has won four of eight starts on good ground and she's 1 from 2 under jockey Shane Kelly.

She's also 3 from 7 over today's 1m4f trip and not only won this Listed event last year, went on to win a Group 3 contest at Haydock beating a subsequent Group 2 winner (Lady Tiana) before herself narrowly failing to land Gr 2 and Gr 1 prizes by a length on each occasion. At odds of 7/1 and shorter, she has 4 wins and a place from 5 runs and this comeback run actually represents a drop in class.

At 110 she's the highest rated horse in the field, 6lbs clear of her nearest rival, but only concedes a pound here and if running to her level, should be the first home.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Miss Marjurie at 3/1 BOG with either Coral or BetVictor who were the standout prices as at 8.50pm. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 31st July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 31st July 2015

A pair or runners-up was all I could manage yesterday, I'm afraid.

One Pekan was caught on the line and lost by a head with Royal Altitude a further 3 places and 3 lengths back in the running order.

Whilst later, our two runners at Epsom were only a length apart, but we had to settle for minor honours, as Star Asset ran out a convincing if somewhat surprising winner at 12/1.

Thursday's results were as follows:

One Pekan : 2nd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Royal Altitude : 5th at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Guiding Light : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Dear Bruin : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
639 winning selections from 2253 = 28.36%
202 winning bets in 584 days = 34.59%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1167.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +123.28pts (+10.56% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Hoping to end July amongst the winner via...

2.00 Goodwood :

Not for the first time this week, I find myself in full agreement with both the bookies and our very own Matt Bisogno about a big race at Goodwood. Matt has previewed this race right here and the general consensus is that it's between The Corsican and Connecticut.

The Corsican has won both his races here at Goodwood to date and ran really well in a strong-looking Gr1 contest last time out, he has won at this trip before, he's 3 from 4 under Jim Crowley and has won both his good ground races. Conditions look more suitable than last time out, where wasn't at all disgraced by finishing 3.25 lengths off the pace and is a serious contender here at 15/8 BOG.

Connecticut's last run saw him win a Listed contest by some 16 lengths and whilst it could be argued that it wasn't the strongest race ever run of its type and that he only had three others to beat, you can only beat what you're faced with on the day.

The runner-up that day, Nancy from Nairobi was herself only beaten by half a length here 2 days ago, beating my SotD horse into 3rd place in the process and with Connecticut's handlers having won this race 3 times in the last 8 runnings, Team Cumani will be hopeful, if not entirely confident of a win here at around 100/30 BOG.

*

5.05 Bangor :

 

Jonjo O'Neill's horses are going well again at the moment and he's represented here by Amuse Me, who now switches back to hurdles after a convincing win over fences at Worcester eight days ago, getting home by over three lengths with something in hand. He's actually 5/24 over hurdles and looks a decent chance at the weights today.

He runs here off a mark of 91, even before an 8lb jockey claim, yet was a winner last week over fences off 99, whilst he's 3/5 over hurdles off marks in the 90's and has actually won off 104 over timber in the past, putting Amuse Me high up my shortlist for this one at 11/4 BOG.

Powderonthebonnet is my other option here after the defection of a Midnight Legend offspring! Beaten by less than two lengths last time out over this trip at Uttoxeter a week ago, his jockey's claim puts him 3lbs better off here in what looks a slightly weaker contest.

He's sent back out today to get another run under his belt before a 9lb hike in weight for that last effort, so the handicapper seems to think he's far better than bare results and if, as appears, he's thrown in here, then 5/2 BOG about Powderonthebonnet mightn't be a bad shout.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

The Corsican / Powderonthebonnet @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Coral & Betfair)
The Corsican / Amuse Me @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : Coral)
Connecticut / Powderonthebonnet @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Connecticut / Amuse Me @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2015

No joy for us on Tuesday at Wolverhampton, where Llyrical ran out of gas with a furlong to go and was subsequently passed by four runners on his way to the line.

He had raced prominently, if a little wide, throughout the contest, but when push came to shove with little more than 200 yards to run, he was a spent force.

He stuck to his task gamely enough, but eventually came home 5th of the 10 runners, beaten by the best part of 7 lengths with the rest of the field strung out behind him. The market seemed to have his measure as, after a Rule 4 deduction, our bet was worth 3.2/1, but he was sent off slightly longer at 100/30.

So, still searching for a first winner of the week, Wednesday looks really tough from a stats point of view, so somethnig a little out of the norm for me via the...

4.55 Goodwood :

And I say out of the norm, as it's a rare SotD sortie to a Festival meeting, as I tend to leave the tipping for these races to the others here on Geegeez better qualified to do so, but one runner in this contest has some interesting stats to back up what is clearly decent form.

Which is why I've just backed Forest Maiden at 5/1 BOG, a price that was available with at least four bookies at 6.10pm on Tuesday evening.

She's likely to go off shorter than that, so even at 5/1 in a big field, there could be some juice in the price in a race where 3yr olds have done well historically, aided by their healthy 9lbs weight for age allowance.

Her trainer, Charlie Appleby is in good form of late, saddling up 7 winners from 35 in the last two weeks, whilst jockey William Buick is also going well, having ridden 13 winners from 43 in the same timeframe and 8 from 20 in the last week alone.

Charlie's record here at Goodwood is reasonable if not spectacular, but 6 winners from 35 (17.1% SR) have been enough to guarantee a profit of 15pts (+42.7% ROI) for his followers, whilst Mr Buick's fans have been treated to 15 winners from 74 (20.3% SR) from their jockey over the last two seasons here at Goodwood.

Those brave enough to back each of the 74 rides have been rewarded with level stakes profits of 82pts at an ROI of 110.9%, which is great work if you're on!

The Buick/Appleby partnership is tried and tested and if you wanted a simple system to follow, you could just back all their joint bookings in handicaps priced at 2/1 to 9/1. There are only 68 qualifiers to date, but 16 winners at an SR of 23.5% and 12.4pts profit at an ROI of 18.2% ROI are worth having.

If you wanted to be a bit more selective, as I know some of you like, backing those over trips of 7.5f to 1m4f pays well with 14 winners from 43 (32.5% SR) and 29.2pts (+67.8% ROI) profit.

As for Forest Maiden , she has won 4 of her 7 runs to date and is 1 from 1 under William Buick., She has won both her starts when asked to carry 9st 5lbs on the past and won on her only attempt at going right handed (which can be an issue for some horses). She now drops down in class from a Class 2 win at Newbury 11 days ago, which is interesting to me (and hopefully to you! 😀 ), because...

If you backed all Charlie Appleby's runners at 8/1 or shorter, who were turned back out within 4 to 15 days of a top 4 finish last time out, you'd have not only bagged yourself 65 winners from 171 bets for a very healthy 38% strike rate, but you'd also have made yourself £287 (+16.8% ROI) to a £10/point level stake.

The strike rate and the ROI are both very acceptable to me, but as always, they can be improved in a whole host of ways, I've just picked four out for you today!

  1. Those placed 1st or 2nd LTO : 46/104 (44.2% SR) for 31.4pts (+30.2% ROI)
  2. 3 yr olds : 34/91 (37.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+17.2% ROI)
  3. Handicappers : 32/79 (40.5% SR) for 38.7pts (+49% ROI) and...
  4. Class 3 runners : 10/19 (52.6% SR) for 15.6pts (+81.9% ROI)

All of which are excellent returns, despite being fairly small sample sizes. The sample sizes are small, because there's only a couple of years worth of data with Charlie being a relatively "new" trainer and one very small microsystem to come from the above only had the first runner on 24th August 2013 (23 months ago), but...

...if you were to back the Appleby runners in Class 2 or 3 handicaps at odds of 7/1 or shorter, 4 to 15 days after a top 3 finish, you'd have 13 winners from 23 (56.5% SR) and 270.5pts profit at an ROI of 119.6%.

Finishing on an ROI of 100% is a good place to stop bombarding you with figures, so I'll call time on this write-up by reminding that I've taken 5/1 BOG about Forest Maiden, a price still available at 8.25pm Tuesday with Betfair's Sportsbook and Ladbrokes (although the latter is non-BOG until 9.00am). E/W backers can get 4 places, but I'm on to win only!

To see the very latest odds from all our featured bookies for Forest Maiden...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 28th July 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th July 2015

As seems to have been the norm over the last week, we were frustrated with a winner/placer combination once more yesterday.

It was particularly galling after getting the winner of what looked a trappy 60-90 contest at Galway and then failing in an average-looking C5 handicap 10 mins later at Windsor, but these things are sent to try us!

Monday's results were as follows:

Harasava : WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Loved : 4th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Choral Festival : 3rd at 7/1 (adv 5/1)
Born To Be Bad : 4th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
636 winning selections from 2241 = 28.38%
201 winning bets in 581 days = 34.60%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1161.50pts
Returns: 1286.31pts
P/L : +124.81pts (+10.75% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm looking for a bit more from these...

1.50 Wolverhampton :

Not the best maiden you'll ever see, but the main protagonists here have now run often enough for me to (hopefully) take two against the rest. Obviously, there's no winning form in a maiden, which makes Livella Fella's recent performances the best on offer. She's clearly the most exposed here after 5 starts, but finishes of 2322 in her last four outings and defeated by less than a length in three of those races suggests she's banging on the door.

Beaten by a short head a week ago by a horses 4lbs well in and now dropping in class to this lowly Class 6, she'd be the one to beat at 2/1 BOG (SkyBet) in a contest that looks much weaker than any Livella Fella has contested of late, provided, of course, she takes well to a track where her trainer has an excellent record over the last few years.

The potential fly in the ointment is likely to be Invigorate, who ran well over 6f here five days ago, just held off by a neck whilst doing all his best work staying on at the finish, suggesting that todfay's extra furlong might be the key to a first win. He did at least prove that he gets this tapeta suface well enough once he'd got going and that experience should stand himn in good stead today.

One thing that did strike me is that you don't often see the Dunlop horses here at Wolverhampton, but with 3 winners from 12 on this Tapeta, I'm not sure that it's the suitability of the track keeping them away. If you fancy Invigorate to make it 4/13, then he's available at 7/2 BOG in several places.

*

3.10 Goodwood :

The bookies are suggesting that this year's renewal of The Lennox Stakes is a two-horse race and Matt's excellent Day 1 preview of the Goodwood meeting backs up this theory and I'm inclined to agree with them, especially as Matt himself has probably forgotten more about racing than I've ever learned!

So, I'll not ramble on about whys and wherefores, my two here are Toormore at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor (slightly shorter elsewhere) and Dutch Connection at 5/2 BOG (generally) for the reasons stated in Matt's piece.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Livella Fella / Toormore @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Livella Fella / Dutch Connection @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
Invigorate / Toormore @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Invigorate / Dutch Connection @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & Hills)

Double Dutch, 5th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th June 2015

Rock Heroine beat Light Breaks by 7 lengths at Wolverhampton yesterday, but unfortunately she herself was a further 7 lengths behind the winner back in third place, meaning the double was down long before we got to Kempton, where I got it right and wrong at the same time!

I expected the 7/4 High Secret to win conmfortably and mainly at the expense of the 3/1 Shades of Silver, so much so that when the former drifted out slightly to 2/1, I advised it as a selection elsewhere!

What happened was that they switched prices and whilst I got the winner, it was the "wrong" winner for me, if you follow. Shades was sent off at 7/4 and won, whilst High Secret only beat one other runner home.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Rock Heroine : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Light Breaks : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Shades of Silver: WON at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
High Secret : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
591 winning selections from 2070 = 28.55%
187 winning bets in 536 days = 34.89%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1071.50pts
Returns: 1176.92pts

P/L : +105.42pts (+9.84% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

A busy day today, so let's crack on with these for Friday...

4.10 Market Rasen:

Although not winning as often as connections would like, there's no doubting that Shear Rock has some ability. 5 consecutive top 4 finishes before finally winning last time out confirms his consistency and with him never beaten by far, looks the one to beat if the same positive tactics as last time out are used.

In the past he's been held up for a run, but despite staying on has never had the speed needed to rein the winners in. He made all last time out and won by 13 lengths. The yard is in good nick and a repeat of that gameplan should get Shear Rock home at 11/4 BOG (Betfair).

There are a couple with chances here, but I'm going with last year's winner, Bowie as the backup at a decent price. He has only raced 4 times since that win and although he hasn't won since, he's always been there or thereabouts (4243). His latest run was the best of the four and he looks like coming back to form with a 2 length defeat here over a longer trip almost three weeks ago.

He's just 5lbs higher than last year and with this renewal looking a weaker affair than 2014 with not much winning form on offer from his six rivals, Bowie could chase the selction home at 13/2 BOG (SkyBet).

*

7.50 Goodwood:

Saeed bin Suroor's horses are constantly winning around 25% of their races and their recent fine form was highlghted with 2 winners and 2 runners-up from their four runners yesterday. The yard has just two runners today and the 7/4 BOG My Call must represent their best chance of prize money. And whilst an opening handicap mark of 89 might look a little punitive, it's worth remembering that the yard does exceptionally well with handicap debutantes.

We should also note that she beat two horses rated 75 and 76 into 2nd & 3rd by 6L and 7.5L last time out and she's likely to improve further for having had the run. Her mark of 89 is effectively just 81 today thanks to the weight for age allowance and there's every possibility that My Call's better than that already.

Escrick is the current 2nd favourite at a generally available 9/2 BOG and that's probably about right in my opinion. She'd been off the track for almost 31 weeks when making her seasonal reappearance at Lingfield (good, not A/W) 16 days ago. She ran really well and was only beaten by one of her 13 rivals there, going down by three parts of a length.

The winner had already had the benefit of two runs this season, so was more race-ready and went into the contest on the back of a win last time out. Escrick's run was decent if unsuccessful and any further progression for that run should keep her in contention here today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Shear Rock / My Call @ 8.63/1 (5/2 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Shear Rock / Escrick @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : generally)
Bowie / My Call @ 18.69/1 (13/2 & 13/8 : SkyBet)
Bowie / Escrick @ 40.25/1 (13/2 & 9/2 : SkyBet)

Double Dutch, 23rd May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd May 2015

Things have been improving slowly of late and I though that taking four well fancied selections on Thursday was a safe move that would not only protect recent proift, but would actually top them up by a small amount.

I couldn't have been more wrong, as I failed to find a single winner, never mind two!

At Bath, we had 3rd and 4th of 5 runners, beaten by just over 1.5 lengths and 5 lengths respectively, whilst it wasn't much better at Pontefract where we had to settle for 2nd and 4th.  Our runner-up was just half a length away from winning, with our final runner another 4 lengths further back on a poor day all round.

Friday's results were as follows:

Keen Move : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Let Right Be Done : 4th at 4/1 (adv 10/3)
----------------------------------------------------
Carrington : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Ravenhoe : 4th at 9/4 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
582 winning selections from 2028 = 28.70%
183 winning bets in 526 days = 34.79%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1051.50pts
Returns: 1163.33pts

P/L : +111.83pts (+10.64% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

This week's final offerings are as follows...

3.00 Catterick:

Rousayan is the form horse here and is deservedly the 15/8 BOG favourite based on his two runs this season. He was touched off by a nose at Wetherby on his seasonal reappearance from a 28-week break over a mile four weeks ago, before making all and just holding on to win by head at Beverley a week later. A step back in trip might make give him a little more breathing space pate on and he has only been raised 3lbs for this year's efforts.

This means he now runs off 80, but was a decent third off 79 at Roscommon last summer over this trip when only beaten by a length and a quarter behind two horses who have both gone on to win again since. A repeat of recent runs should be more than enouh for Rousayan to take a race in which most if not all his rivals have questions to answer.

Seven of his nine rivals have won over today's trips, but only Dr Red Eye has a course and distance win to his name and he's the only one with a decent strike rate at this trip. He's clearly not the 90-rated Class2 winner that he was 2 years ago, but does set the standard at this trip in a fairly ordinary looking field. He has won 5 of 24 races on the Flat over 7f with an excellent return of 4 wins and and three places from just thirteen starts in Class 4 handciaps over this trips.

He's happy in these mid-sized fields, prefers to go left handed nowadays and tends to save his best form for the May to July period. He's happy enough running here and although it's a tentative pick and not one I'd be too keen to back as a single, I do believe that Dr Red Eye is the best of the rest here and is, therefore my alternate at 11/2 BOG and you never know!

*

5.15 Goodwood:

Privileged didn't really show much on her debut at Newbury five weeks ago, when she looked weak when push came to shove, but gave a much improved effort next (and last) time out to finish third at Lingfield three weeks ago. The horses either side of her in 2nd and 4th places have both ran again since and have put up improved performances in making the frame.

With that in mind it's not unreasonable to expect further progression from Privileged today putting her right in the mix at 9/4 BOG in what looks a pretty weak contest, if I'm honest. She will, however, have, to work for a win, if Black Cherry shows anything like the form she showed last season as a juvenile.

She improved with each of her three runs finishing 532, culminating in a 1.25 length defeat two grades higher than this race and doing enough to earn herself an opening handicap mark of 84, so the assessor thinks she has some ability.

She was disappointing on her reappearance at Newmarket in a Class 4 maiden at Newmarket five weeks ago, but she may well have needed the run after a break of 224 days and another drop down in class into a weak race with Cam Hardies taking 3lbs off might just be what Black Cherry needs for a first win at 15/8 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Rousayan / Black Cherry @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Betfair SB)
Rousayan / Privileged @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Betfair SB & Bet365)
Dr Red Eye / Black Cherry @ 17.69/1 (11/2 & 15/8 : Betfair SB)
Dr Red Eye / Privileged @ 18.50/1 (11/2 & 2/1 : Betfair SB, SkyBet & Paddy)

Double Dutch, 21st May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 21st May 2015

The only surprising feature about Pair of Jacks' 7 length victory at Southwell yesterday was his SP. I thought we'd got just about the right price at 15/8, expecting him to shorten a little, but the market compacted and he drifted out to 3/1, but remained as favourite.

3/1 would have made a great second half to a double, seeing as our runners in race 1 were priced at 5/2, but the young fillies let us down, I'm afraid. They were only a length apart, but had to settle for 3rd and 4th places, beaten by 4.5 & 5.5 lengths respectively.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Nyanza : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Magic Magnolia : 4th at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Pair of Jacks : WON at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
Dursey Sound : 4th at 4/1 (adv 11/2)

Results to date:
580 winning selections from 2021 = 28.70%
182 winning bets in 524 days = 34.73%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1049.50pts
Returns: 1152.53pts

P/L : +103.03pts (+9.82% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Hoping for a quick return to winning ways via these races...

5.35 Goodwood:

I see Lead A Merry Dance as the best horse in this race and she was very impressive in winning at Bath just 8 days ago. That was her seasonal reappearance after an absence of 175 days, but she got out quickly and made all to the extent that Richard Hughes was able to ease her down towards the finish, whilst still winning by the thick end of four lengths.

This is an extra half furlong under a 6lb penalty, but her jockey takes 5lbs off and the manner of her run last time out suggest the trip is fine and she has already and made the frame over 6 furlongs. Any repeat of last week's run should see Lead A Merry Dance take this at 2/1 BOG, whilst the one she'll need to be most wary of is likely to be Satchville Flyer at 4/1 BOG.

This one comes into this race in excellent form having finished 11221 in his five races this year. His two defeats were by a short head and a length with both winners going on to win again since. He was a winner at Kempton last night, but provided he has emerged unscathed from that run, I'd expect him to go well again today. He didn't have a hard race last night and was eased once the race was won. Satchville Flyer is 1121 at today's trip and the only doubt surrounds his ability to transfer his A/W form to the turf.

*

7.45 Nottingham:

Cloud Seven is by far the least exposed of the runners here after just four starts and was an impressive winner on his handicap debut at Kempton just over three weeks ago, where he defied a wide draw and then bided his time before hitting the front with a furlong to run. He quickly pulled clear of the pack, before easing down to a two length victory.

The assessor wasn't fooled by the easing down, though, and has raised him 10lbs for that win, but this half-brother to Group 2 winner has the pedigree and the ability to be far better than a class 4 horse and will no doubt run off much higher marks than today's 78. That said, Cloud Seven still receives weight from most of his rivals and should be hard to beat at 2/1 BOG.

With no discernible real recent form amongst his rivals, the one I'm going to put up against him is Shahdaroba at 100/30 BOG, who is a former course and distance winner. He may not have won any of his six outings since winning over track and trip 10 months ago, but has clearly been in the grip of the hasndciapper, whilst also racing at a higher level.

He's back in Class 4 company here and has now dropped to a mark 3lbs lower than that win here last year, making him of obvious interest. He was a respectable 4th last time out in a better race than this on his debut for new trainer David O'Meara at Redcar three weeks ago and not inconceivable that David might have got a bit more out of him. Past history shows that Shahdaroba's second run of the season is generally a good one, so time will tell!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Lead A Merry Dance / Cloud Seven @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Lead A Merry Dance / Shahdaroba @ 12/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Betfair SB & Ladbrokes)
Satchville Flyer / Cloud Seven @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet & Coral)
Satchville Flyer / Shahdaroba @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 10/3 : Betfair SB & Ladbrokes)

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2015

Something strange was in the air yesterday, but I haven't a clue what it was. I was happy to take 11/2 about Troopingthecolur and was shocked to see it at 10/1 mid-afternoon. I still thought it was a sub-5/1 chance, so had another bet on it at 1pt E/W, thinking that a place lets me break even.

Shortly before the race, he was 14/1 and still convinced he had a good shout, I'd another 1pt E/W on him. Anyway the race was terrible, it was run really slowly and was set up for a finisher like the eventual winner who fairly flew home late on.

Our boy was a plugger and he plugged on fairly one-paced, but as nothing really came to challenge, he was able to hold on to 3rd place, beaten by just a couple of lengths. Never a 14/1 shot.

I made a small profit on the race, but for SotD records, it's a 1pt loss that I aim to recoup in Thursday's...

2.40 Goodwood:

A Class 2 handicap over 7f on good ground and a 3/1 BOG bet on Fiftyshadesofgrey, who is...

...trained by George Baker, whose record in Flat handicaps since 2010 is excellent with 72 winners from 533 (13.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 143.5pts at an ROI of 26.9%. Here at Goodwood, that record is 9/50 (18% SR) for 17.8pts (+35.6% ROI).

His record with runners priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 bracket is 62 winners from 273 (22.7% SR) for 103.2pts (+37.8% ROI) profit, with Goodwood providing him with 9 winners from 27 (33.33% SR) for a return of 40.8pts, which equates to £15.11 profit for every £10 wagered.

At trips of today's 7f or shorter here at Goodwood, his runners are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 36pts (+277.1% ROI) profit and he's 2 from 2 for 13.8pts this year already!

Fiftyshadesofgrey is admittedly better on the A/W (3/5) than he is on turf, where he has won just once from 13 starts, but has shown recently that he's getting to grips with running on grass, having finished 2nd and 1st on his last two efforts. He was denied by just a nose at Doncaster, before racing here 19 days ago and winning over today's course and distance.

He hit trouble in running that day and didn't get a clear run, but when he eventually got out, he sailed home to win by a length and a quarter going away from the pack. He would probably have won by further had he had a better run and reunited with regular jockey (3 wins together) Pat Cosgrave, there could well be more to come from an inform (121621 last 6 runs) horse who is 2/6 at today's trip.

Goodwood is also one of those tracks where former C&D winners do well upon their return, especially if they're in decent form. Since 2008, in handicaps here, former C&D winners priced 7/4 to 13/2 returning to Goodwood off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out, went on to win again on 11 of 37 (29.7% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 34.9pts at an ROI of 94.4%.

Those whose run last time out was over course and distance, however, are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 24.2pts (+105.1% ROI), of which those returning after a gap of 2 to 4 weeks are 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 18.7pts (+124.6% ROI).

I expect Fiftyshadesofgrey to give another good account of himself here and if kept handy, but out of trouble, should be taking this at 3/1 BOG, odds that are quite readily available by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 2.40 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 2nd May 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 2nd May 2015

Friday was a poor way to start the new month, if truth be told. Three of four horses in the frame, but no winners and no winners means no profits!

Bold Runner's 3rd place finish was the best I could manage at Lingfield, after he was hampered on the final bend. It probably didn't stop him from winning if I'm honest, but he would have been closer than he was.

We then had second and third in our "dead rubber" at Bangor with Stratford Stroller's half length defeat proving to be my best pick of the day on a day where I struggled with everything I picked away from Double Dutch!

I should also hold my hands up and say I got it wrong with the winner, who clearly didn't mind running off the back of a 2yr absence, as he stayed on well to win.

Not my best day this year, that's for sure!

Friday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Bold Runner: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Tilstarr: 6th at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Stratford Stroller: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Threapwood: 3rd at 9/2 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
562 winning selections from 1964 = 28.62%
176 winning bets in 509 days = 34.58%

Stakes: 1017.50pts
Returns: 1114.54pts

P/L : +97.04pts (+9.54% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Saturdays are usually hyper competitive, but we should go well with......

4.05 Goodwood:

Provenance has an excellent pedigree and progressed well in her first season, winning 3 times from 5 efforts at 7f/1m, including C3 handicaps at Haydock and Sandown. She was beaten by less than 2 lengths in third place in a 1m listed race at Newmarket before not quite seeing out 1m2f in another Listed event (5th, beaten by 8L). Further progression is expected this year and the drop back to a mile should bring another win at 2/1 BOG.

She's owned by Cheveley Park, as is her main rival Tigrilla who had a good debut season as a 2yr old, including a win at Listed company in Deauville, France before a couple of excellent runs in Group races at Newmarket (beaten by 3.5 L at Gr2) and also back at Deauville, where she was only beaten by a length in a Group 3 race on her first effort over a mile. She's sure to come on again this season and with this representing an easier race than last time, she has every chance at 9/4 BOG.

*

5.10 Doncaster:

Luca Cumani's horses are going well at the moment with a 4/10 record in the past week and also has a good record on this track, including the winner of this race last year, Silk Sari, who won here after arriving with a 1/4 record like today's representative Comedy King. CK showed signs of early promise in landing a 1m2f maiden, beating 10 rivals in the process. The runner-up from that day hasn't raced since, but each of the next 7 horses have all won since, clocking up 11 wins and 10 places from 44 runs between them.

Comedy King has been gelded since his last run and this allied to the step up in trip is expected to bring about further improvement and if that's proven to be the case, he stands a verry good chance of landing this at 2/1 BOG, probably at the main expense of Sheriff of Nawton who has already proved he stays the full mile and a half and also has winning form here at Doncaster this season.

Sheriff of Nawton was 2nd and 3rd in back to back 1m4f handicaps at Wolverhampton in February as a warm up for his turf campaign, which he opened with a comfortable 6 lengths victory here at Doncaster over 1m 2.5f at the end of March, before a narrow defeat at Newcastle three weeks ago. He's clearly in good heart and has to be respected on his 2015 form so far and at 4/1 BOG might be a little overpriced.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Provenance / Comedy King @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Paddy, Coral & Betfair SB)
Provenance / Sheriff of Nawton @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Tigrilla/ Comedy King @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Paddy & Coral)
Tigrilla/ Sheriff of Nawton @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2015

Tarooq once again proved he wasn't comfortable on turf as he got badly out paced in the first half of yesterday's race and looked nothing like a 15/8 favourite.

However, the penny did finally drop and he produced a fair turn of speed to eat into the gap ahead of him, making up ground with every stride late on. It wasn't enough, however and he (and we!) had to settle for third place, beaten by 2.5 lengths.

It's a moot point, I suppose, but I was happier backing a 7/2 loser rather than a 15/8 one. At least we can claim to have got the value price, if nothing else!

So, May has started like recent months, with a loss. But I aim to make that back today in the...

2.15 Goodwood:

A fillies' Listed race over 1m4f, where I've backed William Haggas' Arabian Comet at 6/1 BOG.

Mr Haggas' record here at Goodwood is decent with 16 wiunners from 87 (18.4% SR) for 93.9pts (+107.9% ROI) since 2008 and in the last three years, he has had 10 winners from 36 (27.8% SR) for 24.9pts (+69.3% ROI), of which those priced at 6/4 to 13/2 are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 15.5pts (+103.4% ROI).

Arabian Comet should have no problem with the trip, having won a Class 3 contest at Ascot and then was only beaten by a nose by stablemate Queen of Ice in Listed event at York with Queen of Ice going on to win another Listed race next time out. Arabian Queen has also finished second in a Group 3 race over 1m6f, but her stamina is no surprise as she's a dughter of the prolific Dubawi.

Dubawi's offspring have a record of 247 wins from 1480 runs, hitting roughly one winner in 6 (16.7% SR) and generating 205.3pts (+13.9% ROI) profit from blind backing, which is pretty good going.

What Dubawi does do, however, is breed stayers and his offspring running at trips beyond 1m2f are 63/290 (21.7% SR) for 184.1pts (+63.5% ROI) with those priced 12/1 or shorter winning 61 of 237 (25.7% SR) for 153pts (+64.6% ROI).

Arabian Comet holds several of her rivals on past form and provided she's not rusty after 233 days off the track, looks decent vallue at 6/1 BOG. That price was with BetVictor, but you can also get the same offer at Hills and Coral, but please check that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 2.15 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 2nd September 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 2nd September 2014

No joy yesterday as we failed to even make the frame with either of our two runners in the the earlier race, meaning we had nothing to play with later.

We did, however, get a 1-2 finish and a consolatory £6.10 exacta in the second contest for those of you playing it that way.

Monday's results were as follows:

Akiliyna: u/p at 5/4(adv 2/1)
Diylawa: u/p at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
------------------------------------------
Fill Your Hands: won at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
Captain Carol: 2nd at 11/8 (adv Evs)
The Exacta paid £6.10 here

Results to date:
338 winning selections from 1181 = 28.62%
111 winning bets in 308 days = 36.04%

Stakes: 616.00pts
Returns: 685.84pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +69.84pts (+11.34% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

2.20 Goodwood:

Prices are a little shorter than I'd generally like, but I can't see past the top two in the market, who both come here on the back of decent third-place finishes on debut last month.

Cartier is the current 13/8 BOG favourite and comes here after running on well in the closing stages at Doncaster to make the frame. She'd been a little green initially, but was doing all her best work late on as the penny began to drop. She got the trip well enough and she holds an entry for  group 1 contest over this trip, so better things are expected of her. Her trainer won this race last year and his yard is in decent nick.

Ted Durcan rode her on debut and he's back in the saddle again and if she avoids trouble in running this time, looks to be a major player here today.

Next in line and trading at 15/8 BOG is Mystic Jade, another in a long line of Hannon/Hughes 2 yr olds. Richard Hughes has a great record here at Goodwood and was on board for Mystic Jade's debut here 10 days ago. She was only defeated by two necks, as she was staying on strongly at the close and it is expected that today's extra 2 furlongs will be right up her street.

*

5.40 Goodwood:

Eleven go to post for the meeting finale, but it looks a two-horse affair to me.

Last Minute Lisa has been running consistently well of late and despite being beaten into third place last time out produced a career best performance at Newbury to get within three parts of a length of the eventual winner, who had the benefit of having the race's best jockey on board that day. No disrespect to the lady amateur riding last time out, but you'd have to feel that Richard Hughes might just be a little stronger in a tight finish.

As it was an amateur event, Last Minute Lisa runs off the same mark today, but the drop in class should be enough to get her back to winning ways at a generally available 3/1 BOG.

The main threat should come from Hallingham, who was a good winner at Sandown two starts ago, before only being touched off by half a length to a progressive sort at Lingfield last time out, despite a 9lb weight rise. He runs off the same mark today and his victor from Lingfield, Ragged Robbin, was an easy 4 lengths winner next time out. Another performance like that would put him right in the mix once again and could make his current 100/30 BOG odds look generous.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Cartier / Last Minute Lisa @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : SJ)
Cartier / Hallingham @ 10.38/1 (13/8 & 10/3 : SJ)
Mystic Jade / Last Minute Lisa @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : SJ)
Mystic Jade / Hallingham @ 11.46/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : SJ)