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Double Dutch, 23rd August 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd August 2014

I'm afraid to report that my recent mini-slump in form continued yesterday, with Wordismybond's two length defeat being the "highlight" of another disappointing day.

Not that I'm too concerned just now. We're all aware of the cyclical nature of racing and like the horses themselves, those of us who write about the sport are subject to rises and falls in form.

That said, yesterday was the 300th day of the Double Dutch and to date we have landed the winner in 330 of 600 races and netted ourselves 109 winning doubles along the way.

Our profits stand at 76.19pts, a return above stakes of a healthy 12.7% and despite a frustrating few days, I'm sure it won't be long before we're raising our glasses again to celebrate another winning double.

Friday's results were as follows:

Rekdhat: u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/4)
Psychometry: u/p at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
------------------------------------------
Wordismybond: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Half Way: u/p at 4/1 (adv 9/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
330 winning selections from 1150 = 28.70%
109 winning bets in 300 days = 36.33%

Stakes: 600.00pts
Returns: 676.19pts

P/L : +76.19pts (+12.70% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last chance of the week, so I'm hoping to go out with a bang with these races...

3.20 Newmarket:

Warrior of Light is up 8lbs for a win at Ffos Las last time out, but is still unexposed after just six starts and might well still be ahead of the handicapper. Two wins and a runner-up twice in his last five outings show the form he's in, no more so than when staying on to beat Quest for More last time around with that form now being franked by the latter only just getting edged out at York on Wednesday. Despite the rise in weights, Warrior of Light is the one to beat here at 5/2 BOG.

The one most likely to chase him home should be the 4yr old filly Debdebdeb. She's a gutsy battler who won't go down without a fight if she's in a handy position in the closing stages. She was very good last season, winning three and placing in 4 other starts of her eight runs and was only beaten by a head on her seasonal reappearance at Goodwood back in April.

She, admittedly, hasn't scaled the heights of last season just yet, but has shown promising signs of a return to form lately by finishing just 3.5 lengths adrift in a Listed contest at York six weeks ago and she was eyecatching in defeat in the Shergar Cup at Ascot a fortnight ago, despite finishing 4th and beaten by four lengths.

Debdebdeb was left with far too much to do late on by her temporary imported jockey, but did stay on really well. Thomas Brown is in the saddle today and he has already ridden her to victory in the past and his 3lb claim won't do her chances at 7/2 BOG any harm either.

*

3.30 Goodwood:

I don't always agree with the bookies, but I have to side with their view that the two at the head of the market should be winning this one today. So we have a 2/1 BOG favourite in the form of Captain Cat who hasn't been overworked on hos way to this race, having run just five times in the last year. His form from those five reads 12211 and he took both a four month break and the step up to Group racing in his stride when winning comfortably at Salisbury nine days ago.

He was easing down towards the finish with the job already done, but still posted an official winning margin of 2.5 lengths. This, of course, is a trickier contest for Captain Cat, but he had plenty in hand that day and should also come on for having had a recent run. Roger Charlton's horses are in good form and the trainer has an excellent record at this track.

Next in line is the least exposed of the pack, the 3yr old Hors de Combat who trades around the 3/1 BOG mark at the moment. 3 yr olds have a good record in this race and of the three entered today, I think he shades the verdict. Just six starts under his belt to date, but he has already won twice and made the frame on a further three occasions, most recently over course and distance here when beaten by just a neck in a Group 3 race at the start of the month with today's re-opposing Bow Creek a further 3.5 lengths behind.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Warrior of Light / Captain Cat @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Warrior of Light / Hors de Combat @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Boylesports & Ladbrokes)
Debdebdeb / Captain Cat @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Betfair Sportsbook & Skybet)
Debdebdeb / Hors de Combat @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1, Boylesports, Paddy P, Ladbrokes & Betfred)

Double Dutch, 22nd August 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd August 2014

A dismal fifteen minutes at tea-time yesterday represented a bad day at the office for the Double Dutch, I'm afraid.

Firstly Jaja de Jau and City Line could only finish 4th and 5th respectively in a 6 -horse race with neither really showing much for us and then this was compounded shortly after at Bath, where the odds-on First Sargeant and Cataria Girl finished 2nd and 3rd of five runners.

On a day with no winners and just one short-priced placer from my four selections, it was hard to find a positive for my efforts. It's clutching at straws perhaps, but my two best placed runners would have produced a 10/1 smashing the SP price of 4.73/1, so at least value was on our side!

Thursday's results were as follows:

Jaja De Jau: u/p at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
City Line: u/p at 5/1 (adv 9/2)
------------------------------------------
First Sargeant: 2nd at 10/11 (adv 15/8)
Cataria Girl: u/p at 3/1 (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
329 winning selections from 1146 = 28.71%
109 winning bets in 299 days = 36.45%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 600.00pts
Returns: 676.19pts

P/L : +76.19pts (+12.70% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm hoping for better from these today...

6.45 Goodwood:

Rekdhat has won twice and finished second once in her four starts to date. She has improved steadily and has benefited from wearing a hood in her last two outings. She was a winner last time out, beating Joys of Spring who has won since and Hedge End who has two runner-up finishes at a higher grade to his name since that race at Windsor. I'm not convinced that a 6lb rise in weight will be enough to stop her progression here and Rekdhat looks the likely winner for me at 5/2 BOG with Ladbrokes.

Psychometry looks a big danger, though and despite not winning a race this season (4385 in four starts), does have plenty of potential as demonstrated by two second places and a win from her debut season last year.In her defence, all four runs this season have been in Listed company and this represents a major step down in class today. She was 8th in the Rockingham at Ascot back in June, but was by means disgraced and/or outclassed, finishing just 3.5 lengths off the pace over today's trip.

The handicapper hasn't taken too many chances with her at a mark of 90, but if Psychometry runs to anything like her potential, a win at 11/4 BOG could well be on the cards.

*

7.50 Goodwood:

Wordismybond has been in excellent form this season, finishing 211 in his three starts this year. He overcame an 8-month absence to only be beaten by a neck at Sandown in July, for which he was "rewarded" by a 2lb rise in the weights. He shrugged that aside by winning by two lengths on turf at Lingfield nine days later. This put him up another 5lbs to a mark of 70, but he won again a week ago at Newbury by three parts of a length.

He runs off the same mark today and Richard Hughes takes the ride ahead of the claimer who was on board last time, suggesting that's there's still more to be eked out of this one. There are, however, a couple of reasons, why he's as long as 5/2 BOG despite being 5lbs well in here. He quite possibly won't be allowed to dictate the pace of the race this time and with a wide (10 of 11) draw to overcome, it'll take the best efforts of his top jockey to get him handy. That said, 5/2 BOG still looks like good value for Wordismybond here.

Half Way is probably the best of the rest and when you factor in his 5lb weight for age allowance and his jockey's 5lb claim, he's carrying pretty much no weight here over a trip he's used to but not overexposed at. Amy Scott has ridden him five times over this 7f trip, winning once with two runner-up medals so far and they were winners at Lingfield by four lengths last time out.

He obviously comes here in good heart and does look the best of the three year olds in a poor-looking contest full of exposed older horses trying to find a way back into some form. The main selection aside, there doesn't seem to be too many "1's" in the recent form lines of the runners here, so Half Way is my next best for this one at 9/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Rekdhat / Wordismybond @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 are widely available)
Rekdhat / Half Way @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 at BetVictor, BetFred & Coral)
Psychometry / Wordismybond @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 at BetVictor, BoyleSports & Stan James)
Psychometry / Half Way @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 at BetVictor, BetFred & Coral)

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd August 2014

The good news from yesterday was that, once again, we smashed the SP on our chosen runner, taking 4/1 BOG about a 15/8 favourite and in the long run, that will prove to be profitable.

In the short-term, however, that wasn't the case, as Lysino was beaten by two lengths into third place. He was held up towards the rear of the field for much of the contest, but steadily made ground in the final half mile or so until it got to the point a furlong from home where he had every chance of going on to win.

He had a couple of lengths to make up, but had no extra injection of pace when needed and couldn't close the gap.

It has been a frustrating week so far, but these are the fine margins that we deal with on a daily basis and I'm hoping for a little more in today's...

6.15 Goodwood:

And an 11/4 BOG bet on Ed Dunlop's 2 yr old filly Arethusa who makes only her third start after racing twice last month, securing a runner-up finish on her debut and a comfortable win a big field at Newmarket last time out. That was five weeks ago and she had What A Party 3.25 lengths behind her in third place that day, with that horse going on to win both of his two subsequent races (one maiden and one handicap/nursery).

After her maiden win, this is Arethusa's handicap bow in a Class 4 Nursery...

Ed Dunlop has a good record with handicap debutants and since the start of the 2008 flat season he has saddled up 23 winners from his 151 debutants for a strike rate of 15.2% and resultant level stakes profits of 49.3pts, which equates to 32.6% of stakes.

He hasn't fared too well in better quality handicaps, but at Class 3 and lower, the record is very impressive with 22 wins from 131 (16.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+44.5% ROI) profit.

She's stepping up a class today, too...

Ed also has a good record with his handicappers stepping up in class, especially if there's some money about for them. As in the same 2008-14 timeframe, his handicappers running up a class and at odds of 7/1 or shorter have won 22 of 94 races at a rate of 23.4% and the 21.8pts profit generated is worth 23.1% of stakes.

Incidentally, from an admittedly small sample size: 19 horses have satisfied both criteria to date with 10 (52.6%) of them making the frame. Four of the nineteen (21.1% SR) were winners, generating 11.2pts profit at an ROI of almost 59%.

Arethusa seems to have been treated on the lenient side with an opening mark of 76, which looks very workable in a field of runners where she's the only one to have previously won at the trip. I'd expect her to shorten as the day goes on, so I'm happy to take the 11/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor.

Not all the firms had priced this up at close to 1am, so for their prices, I suggest that you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.15 Goodwood

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 6th June 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 6th June 2014

Our two selected races were settled by a neck and a head respectively, but unfortunately we were only on the right side of one of those close finishes.

King of The Danes was a strong fancy for me and I was surprised (and pleased, because I'd a reasonable-sized single bet on him elsewhere!) to see a drift from 5/2 out to an SP of 4/1. He hit the front 2 furlongs out and was driven to stay on to just keep his nose in front in a tight finish, with less than a length separating the first three home.

Shouranour, however, was 5 lengths off the pace and only beat one of his six rivals home. The one he beat, though, was the favourite Another For Joe, who I suggested would struggle at the weights.

Race 2 was another tight affair, where Rainbow Rock was backed in from 11/4 to be the 7/4 fav, but was unable to quite reel in the gamble of the race, Bognor. The winner was an 11/1 shot overnight, but eventually went off at 7/2 and went clear with a couple of furlongs to run. Rainbow Rock made ground up quickly late on and drew alongside in the final 50 yards, but the winner just found a little extra to stick his neck out.

It was a gutsy, resilient performance from the winner which had plenty to admire, but it meant our pockets are a little lighter this morning, having just missed out on a 12/1 double.

Thursday's results were as follows:

King of the Danes: won at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
Shouranour: u/p at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
---------------------------------
Rainbow Rock: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 11/4)
Grandest: u/p at 5/2 (adv 2/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
249 winning selections from 898 = 27.73%
79 winning bets in 234 days = 33.76%

Stakes: 466.00pts
Returns: 498.88pts

P/L : +32.88pts (+7.06% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

This is how Friday looks for DD...

3.40 Market Rasen:

Keeneland's record over hurdles is impressive at 11611 and I should point out that the 6th place finish at Sedgefield in March of this year came after he's been off the track for 21 months. He was, admittedly, well beaten (49 lengths) but still stuck tot he task and completed the full 2m4f on soft ground: a true test of his stamina after a long lay off.

He returned to action just 20 days later to win by a head, staying on at Kelso (16.5f on good ground) and subsequently won again a month later (45 days ago) also at Kelso, but over 2m 4.5f on good ground. he has won five of his eight starts to date, the trip / ground won't be an issue and Adrian Lane will be on board to continue their flourishing relationship (2 from 2 so far). He's up in the weights, of course, but this doesn't look that tough a contest in fairness and he's in good form, making his current odds of 13/2 BOG with Stan James look a little generous, unless I've missed something!

Another who looks a little long in the market is the 8/1 BOG (with Coral) chance Lucky Landing and that's probably because his recent record is fairly poor. He won a course and distance hurdle event here last August before going chasing and he took to the bigger fences well initially with four finishes of 12(C&D here)31. He was then off the track for four and a half months before returning up in class to Class 2 (this is C3 today) and finished 7th of 9 at Doncaster, before going to Cheltenham to contest a Grade 3 chase.

He acquitted himself well in defeat over an inadequately short trip, finishing 8th of 23, but struggled with the National fences at Aintree next time out. He's an interesting prospect returning to hurdles off a mark 11lbs lower than that Cheltenham run and in trainer Tony Coyle, he represents a yard who excel in handicap hurdles (10/47 to date with a 10/34 record at 10/1 or shorter).

(I'll be having a couple of small E/W singles on the above, too)

*

8.45 Goodwood:

Best Kept looks quite favourably treated off 78 here, eased down a pound in the weights after two defeats last month. He finished 5th on both occasions, but wasn't beaten by far in either contest ( 2 lengths over a mile on the A/W at Kempton and then just under 2.5 lengths here at Goodwood over 9f on soft ground). He was only headed a furlong from home and weakened late on last time out, but the step back to a mile on better ground at a lower mark should all help today and he wouldn't need to improve that much to land this at 7/2 BOG with Stan James.

Rapid Advance is an interesting sort that might not look an obvious one to back at first glance. Lightly raced with just three maiden runs to date (no wins!), he showed promise when finishing second in his second and final run of 2013, when he made a mockery of his 50/1 price tag to only go down by a length over a mile on the A/W at Kempton in November.

He reappeared at Nottingham some 159 days later in a Nottingham maiden and was 4th of 13, beaten by 2 lengths on good to firm ground which was probably a little too quick for him over 8.5f. That proved to be his last run for Roger Varian and he now makes his debut for Sir Michael Stoute, a dab hand at getting a little bit more from horses brought from other yards.

Today is a slight drop in trip, slightly slower ground and an opening mark of 78 doesn't look too bad, based on that last run, where the three ahead of him have all improved and run well since with the winner winning again next time out up in class at Ascot on good ground. 5/1 BOG looks pretty attractive here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Keeneland / Best Kept @ 32.75/1 (13/2 & 7/2 : Stan James)
Keeneland / Rapid Advance @ 44/1 (13/2 & 5/1 : Stan James)
Lucky Landing / Best Kept @ 38/1 (8/1 & 100/30 : Coral)
Lucky Landing / Rapid Advance @ 50/1 (15/2 & 5/1 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 24th May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 24th May 2014

Comrade Bond was a winner in race 1 yesterday with Glorious Star just a nose away from completing a 1-2 finish for us there at Yarmouth. This, of course, raised my hopes of finally smashing this run of winners paired with placers, but once again those hopes were dashed over at Goodwood a couple of hours later.

There, as I thought might be the case, little separated my two selections Stereo Love and Tullia who finished within a length and a quarter of each other, but they had to both settle for the placings (again!), as bottom weight Starlight Serenade took the honours.

Friday's results were as follows:

Comrade Bond: won at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Glorious Star: 3rd at 10/3 (adv 2/1)
---------------------------------
Stereo Love: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 10/3)
Tullia: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
238 winning selections from 854 = 27.87%
76 winning bets in 223 days = 34.08%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 444.00pts
Returns: 479.82pts

P/L : +35.82pts (+8.07% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

It's just a good job that I'm not one to make excuses, as I'd be running out by now!
Saturday's hopefuls are as follows...

1.50 Goodwood:

Where I expect either of French Navy (9/4 BOG) or Nabucco (11/4 BOG) to win. Both seem to have the right sort of profile for this race and both should be well suited by the conditions, so let's quickly take a look at both.

French Navy looks to be Godolphin's best hope of taking this and he's a former group 3 winner over course and distance.He has hit the ground running this season, having two outings since his winter break. He was beaten by a length into second place in a Group 3 contest on his first run of the season with Gospel Choir, a subsequent double Group 2 winner, two places and 1.5 lengths further back. He was then third behind Ocean Tempest in a Listed race at Ascot and thae winner has won another Listed contest since then.

French Navy is 1 from 1 here at Goodwood (C&D win), his record on soft ground is 1223 and he's 1102 at today's trip.

The rain and the easing of the ground could well play to Nabucco's strengths. If he's race ready after a break, he'll look to pick up where he left off after a great season last time round with a record reading 321211 with wins at Listed Class and on heavy and soft ground all over today's trip. He was second here last year on good to soft ground and the more it rains, the better his chance is going to be. He has won four times over today's trip and he's 210211 on any ground worse than good.

*

7.10 Ffos Las:

Over the last 18 months, Lac Sacre has been the model of consistency, winning twice in 12 runs and making the frame in all bar one of those races. He was a winner on his only previous visit to Ffos Las, that was over course and distance on soft ground two months ago, so conditions should suit him again. He is 2 from 5 on soft ground (02113) and has won two of his last three outings at today's trip and can be backed at 11/4 BOG today.

The downside is that his consistency means he's constantly creeping up the weights, leaving him vulnerable to a more favourably weighted opponent, hence his massive place strike rate and not so many wins. I fear the same fate will befall him today with the presence of the 15/8 favourite Zarzal.

Zarzal has been in good form over fences and gets to run off a mark some 13lbs lower than his chase mark, now he reverts back to hurdling. He absolutely sauntered home at Ludlow 13 days ago and still won by 15 lengths off today's mark and whilst he was only third at Market Rasen last time out, this looks a weaker affair. He's a three-time winner at this trip and acts well on soft and heavy ground, as is often the case at Ffos Las!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
French Navy / Zarzal @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
French Navy / Lac Sacre @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Bet365)
Nabucco / Zarzal @ 9.78/1 (11/4 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Nabucco / Lac Sacre @ 13.06/1 (11/4 & 11/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 23rd May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 23rd May 2014

In what is now becoming a boringly predictable tale of woe, one excellent result for us was marred by being paired with a losing effort.

As expected/predicted Dubai Prince beat Gassin Golf at Wetherby by a length and a half with the next one home a good six lengths away. A nice 1-2 with an £8.30 Exacta to boot.

Unfortunately, the double had already perished, as Lion Beacon's six lengths defeat into third place twenty-five minutes earlier had sealed our fate for the day.

This seems to have been the case for a long time now, but I remain convinced we're not that far off!

Thursday's results were as follows:

Dubai Prince: won at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Gassin Golf: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
---------------------------------
Lion Beacon: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
Our Folly: u/p at 7/1 (adv 8/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
237 winning selections from 850 = 27.88%
76 winning bets in 222 days = 34.23%

Stakes: 442.00pts
Returns: 479.82pts

P/L : +37.82pts (+8.56% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Friday's selections are as follows...

3.15 Yarmouth:

I wouldn't normally get involved in races of just four runners, but a spate of withdrawals this morning seems to have reduced a competitive-looking and difficult to read 8-runner handicap into something of a two horse race, which should hopefully play to our advantage.

The ground is now soft, hence the non-runners, but Comrade Bond will relish the conditions. He may well have only won three times in his career to date, but all three wins were over today's course and distance, where has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 attempts. 2 of his 3 C&D wins were on soft ground and he's 2/3 on soft ground anywhere. There's not much for him to beat here and this could be his easiest route back to the winners's enclosure that he has been offered of late. You can back Comrade Bond at 11/4 BOG.

The biggest challenge is expected to come from the unexposed 2/1 BOG favourite Glorious Star on his handicap debut. His trainer Ed Walker has a great record here at Yarmouth (7/14 in handicaps!) and this is his only ruinner of the day. Glorious Star is used to not having much company, having faced only 4 rivals in each of his to maiden outings, finishing third before winning last time out at Southwell. He made all to win that day over today's trip (a mile has seemed beyond him on debut) and he'll probably seek to lead the way again today.

*

5.10 Goodwood:

In another race decimated by the weather (6 of 12 don't go!) I'm looking at Tullia to run well here. She was progressive last season with finishes of 7231, before reappearing at Chepstow three weeks ago after a break of exactly 200 days. She was entiteld to have needed a run, but so nearly added a victory to her tally over today's 1m trip on equally soft ground. She was collared really late on that day and despite a 3lb rise in weight, she should build on that today.

Tullia's record on soft ground reads 212 and never beaten by more than a neck, so I expect her to be there or thereabouts and her current odds of 4/1 BOG look quite generous in a six-horse race.

Dynaglow and Stereo Love are the top two in the market, but I'm going to omit the favourite, Dynaglow, who might just need a run after being away from the track for almost eight months. She did run well on soft ground on her debut, but the lay-off might lead to some rustiness late on in what might prove a tactiacl encounter.

This brings us to Stereo Love, who has the benefit of running (and winning!) a fortnight ago at Nottingham over 8.5f. She ran on well to score by a couple of lengths on good to soft ground and she also has a decent effort under her belt on heavy ground, when beaten by just a short head, also at Nottingham over 8.5f. She'll not be fazed by the conditions today and looks a decent prospect at 100/30 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Glorious Star / Stereo Love @ 11.46/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : BetVictor & Hills)
Glorious Star / Tullia @ 14/1 (2/1 & 4/1 : Bet365 & BoyleSports)
Comrade Bond / Stereo Love @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : BetVictor, BetFred, Hills & PP)
Comrade Bond / Tullia @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : generally available)

Double Dutch, 22nd May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd May 2014

Miss Tenacious looked well set to land the opener for us yesterday, before proceeding to clatter through the penultimate fence, which pretty much took away both her momentum and the subsequently the race.

The second race was even more disappointing, with neither of our runners really landing any sort of blow.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Miss Tenacious: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Benny's Quest: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
---------------------------------
Thedeboftheyear: u/p at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Realta Mo Croi: PU at 5/2 (adv 2/1)

Results to date:
236 winning selections from 846 = 27.90%
76 winning bets in 221 days = 34.39%

Stakes: 440.00pts
Returns: 479.82pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +39.82pts (+9.05% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday's selections are as follows...

3.15 Goodwood:

Where Lion Beacon looks the safest option at 100/30 BOG (SkyBet). Three wins and fives places from eleven runs gradually stepping up in trip and class show progression and consistency. He was very effective last season around the 14f type of trip and I expect him to get the extra 2f today. He ran really well when finishing second to Itlaaq on his seasonal reappearance at Doncaster 19 days ago, when he narrowly failed to make all over 14.5f, only going down by three parts of a length.

He was entitled to have needed the run after a break of exactly seven months, but he stayed on well and will be buoyed by Itlaaq's subsequent run at York last week, when 3rd stepping up two grades. Ryan Moore rides Lion Beacon for the first time today and he is 8/32 on Amanda Perrett's horses over the last four seasons.

Our Folly is an interesting one here and looks a bit long at 8/1 BOG (I might have a small E/W bet too). he was fourth at Newbury last time out on the back of a 23-weeks break and acquitted himself really well. The trip isn't an issue, with two wins already under his belt at 2m and he has won over 2m1f. He was a winner here last term over course and distance. He's proven on good ground, having won two of his last starts under these conditions and if he can maintain his form/progress, he could upset the favourite today.

*

3.40 Wetherby:

I'm going with Dubai Prince here, he's a former 114-rated Group 3 winner on the Flat, so won't lack for a turn of foot if needed and has already won twice over hurdles (1P371) with the worst of those runs coming at a much higher level (Gr2). He acts well on Good ground, which is currently the forcast, but if the heavy rain materialises, he won't be troubled by that either: his debut hurdles outing/win was on good to soft.

There's a positive jockey booking here too, with AP taking the ride for the first time and the Champ has a brilliant record here at Wetherby, where over the last six seasons he has won 23 of 53 hurdles contests on horses priced at 9/2 or shorter and could very well add to that tally today with a 100/30 BOG winner.

There are several capable of posing problems to the main selection, but I think Knight In Purple, who has won this race in each of the last two years, might need the run after a 31-weeks absence and I'm concerned that Pair of jacks might struggle to contend with a 10lb hike in weight allied to a step up in class.

This, almost by default, brings me to Gassin Golf. This one may not have won over hurdles yet, but that day won't be far away. He has made the frame seven times from ten starts over hurdles and this possibly represents one of his easiest chances to get off the mark. He was also a useful performer on the Flat at Class 2 level and must be considered to have some ability over hurdles.

So much so, that he ran in last years JCB Triumph Hurdle and was only beaten by a length (Baltimore Rock) in the Grade 3 William Hill Imperial Cup at Sandown in March. He ran well enough in defeat to a Mullins/Walsh odds-on jolly last time out to suggest it could be his turn today at odds of 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Lion Beacon / Gassin Golf @ 13.08/1 (10/3 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Lion Beacon / Dubai Prince @ 17.78/1 (10/3 & 10/3 : SkyBet)
Our Folly / Gassin Golf @ 30.50/1 (8/1 & 5/2 : BetFred & BoyleSports)
Our Folly / Dubai Prince @ 38/1 (8/1 & 10/3 : BetVictor, Coral, Hills & SkyBet)

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2013

It was a gutsy performance from 7/2 shot More Aspen last night, but despite her staying on well at the finish, she just couldn't get to the odds on favourite who scored by just half a length.

We got a really good run for our money but ultimately no reward, something I aim to put right in today's...

3.05 Goodwood

Where William Buick rides the previously unraced Danjeu for John Gosden as the pair aim to repeat last year's success in this very race.

As this 2 yr old is running for the first time, there's no form or horse stats to go off, so we turn our attention to Mr Gosden firstly and his record with 2yr olds on debut.

If we look at this record over the 2011/13 period, we see that his 152 debutants have all gone off at prices between 13/8 and 25/1 and that 26 (17.11%) of them have gone to score first time out. The resulting profits of 85.63pts are excellent and represent some 56.34% of stakes invested, but there are a couple of larger-odds winners in there.

The best way to analyse the performance of these 152 runners is to break them down via a series of odds filters as follows:
20/1 odds cap: 25 winners from 147 = 17.01% strike rate. Profits of 59.70pts = 40.61% of stakes.
 6/1 odds cap: 19 winners from 78 = 24.36% strike rate. Profits of 23.05pts = 29.55% of stakes.
 4/1 odds cap: 12 winners from 41 = 29.27% strike rate. Profits of 10.98pts = 26.78% of stakes.

These results are pretty much what I expected. As the odds drop, the strike rate increases and the ROI falls accordingly. However, there's not one unsatisfactory set of numbers there, so I'm quite happy to back all of the qualifying horses this throws out. Danjeu, however, is the only such horse Mr Gosden has running today.

The secondary set of stats I'm going to use to reinforce the selection revolve around the booking of jockey William Buick and his record on the Gosden horses here at Goodwood in recent years. The set of data I'm going to show isn't meant to blow you away, but as a backup to the main selection, they make interesting reading.

Messrs Buick & Gosden have teamed up on 43 occasions for races of 1m4f or shorter here at Goodwood, recording 7 wins (16.28%) and 13.30pts (+30.93% ROI) profit from those races. But tellingly the duo have thrived at the longer end of these races ie races from today's 9f trip through to 12f.

Their record in Goodwood races of 1m1f to 1m4f reads as 6 wins from 25 (24% SR) for 22.25pts (+89% ROI) profit.

So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Danjeu at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, but as always you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.05 Goodwood

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Here is today's racecard!

 

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th August 2013

Four winners from six for Mickael Barzalona at Newmarket highlighted how strong he is at that venue and he has certainly helped my profit/loss figures this summer. He also helped SotD to a 4.5pts return yesterday as he cajoled Ghazi to a win on debut. The horse had to be firmly ridden from a long way out, such was the greenness of his running, but finally with less than two furlongs to go, the penny seemed to drop and he straightened up for home.

The official winning distance was a mere half-length, but in truth it was all quite cosy in the end. He's sure to be asked to go further in time and may well be one to watch as he progresses. There's no Barzalona/Newmarket combinations today, I'm afraid, but I do have an interesting entry in the highly competitive...

5.00 Goodwood

Three year old horses running in open age handicaps receive a weight for age allowance and this allowance becomes far more noticeable in races of a mile and a half or further. As with any angle in racing, some trainers are more adept at exploiting this allowance and whilst Mark Johnston is the master of this, fellow trainer Ed Dunlop is no slouch either.

In the past three seasons Ed has had six winners (and four others placed) from just seventeen such entrants with this 35.3% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 15.7pts, a return of 92.4% of stakes.

This is also the time of year when Ed's horses are usually at their peak with his record in handicap races in the months of July & August over the past three seasons reading as 26 winners from 118 runners priced at 12/1 or under. This gives a very healthy 22% strike rate and profits of 34.1 pts or 28.9% of stakes. It should also be noted that 41% of those runners made the frame, making these two months very profitable for the yard.

Today, Mr Dunlop employs the talents of Frankie Dettori to ride the 3 yr old filly Bantam, a horse developing into a really consistent sort who was 5th of 15 on debut at Newbury back in May, but has made the first two home in each of her five subsequent outings on turf since (22121) despite being asked to run on ground conditions varying from Good to Firm right through to Heavy!

Both of her wins to date were over today's kind of trip (1m 3.5f at Windsor and 1m 4f at Salisbury last time out) and she showed a good turn of pace to win her latest contest. She is making steady progress, having risen from a mark of 75 to today's 84 in the space of her last three runs. She ran well enough off 80 last time out and today's extra 4lbs is more than negated by that 10lb (in real terms) weight for age allowance as above, meaning she's effectively competing off 74, despite having won off 75 & 80.

The booking of Frankie Dettori today is interesting too. He may not be the rider he used to be, but he's still one of the best around. His deployment here today, allied to the trainer's record in handicaps at this time of year, as well as the weight allowance makes the 9/1 BOG on offer look really attractive. The prudent call is, of course, to hedge our bets. Therefore today's play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Bantam at 9/1 BOG with BetVictor. This price is also currently available at Betfred and William Hill.

I wrote this at midnight and prices are subject to change, so I'd strongly recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Goodwood

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Sat TV Trends – 24th Aug 2013

York Ebor

It's York Ebor Day This Saturday.......

It's York Ebor day on the Knavesmire this Saturday, while the C4 cameras also head to Goodwood for three races...... Read more

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2013

Stat of the Day : 4/5/13

Stat of the Day : 4/5/13

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2013

As I'd hoped yesterday, the return to turf and a drop back in distance did the trick for Antonio Gramersci ans SotD yesterday as he ran out a comfortable 3/1 (we'd taken 100/30) winner by almost 3 lengths and he was still going away at the end after a patient hold up ride. I'll be interested to see where he pitches up next.

Back to English soil today for the rarefied atmosphere of a Class 1 Fillies' Listed contest over a mile and a half, where the going is set to be Good (firmer in parts) for the seven runners vying for the first prize of almost £24,000 in the...

2.20 Goodwood:

The last couple of years have been good for Jeremy Noseda here at Goodwood with nine of his twenty-eight runners taking the honours. This 32.1% strike rate has rewarded his followers with profits of 23pts at SP: a return of 82.1% on their stakes. If those figures weren't impressive enough: in non-handicap contests, the stats are even better: five winners from thirteen (38.5%) for 18.5pts (+142.3%) profit.

Those excellent results for 2011 & 2012 aren't anomalies nor a flash in the pan either, Jeremy's overall record at Goodwood since the start of 2004 reads 32/132 = 23.48%, a very healthy record, whilst at non-handicap level, the numbers  look even better at 21/77, a 27.27% Strike Rate.

Mr Noseda actually has two such runners today: Burkes Rock (available at 5/1 BOG) seems to have the tougher task in the 4.05 race, also a Class 1 Fillies Listed contest, so my preference is for his runner earlier in the card: Reckoning.

Reckoning is another of those lightly raced horses that are cropping up at the moment. This filly has only raced twice before today's encounter, after a 9/1 win on debut at Doncaster back in October 2011, she was third last time out in another Class 1 listed contest at Doncaster last November. She was by no means disgraced that day, finishing lengths than two lengths off the winner and well clear of the 4th placed horse. She was only just over a length behind Sajjhaa that day and the Godolphin mare then followed up with back to back Group 2 victories and successive Group 1 wins: all four races at Meydan this spring.

I'd expect this one to have plenty of scope for improvement and she holds an entry for the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York in 12 days time, so I assume the yard think she's more than capable of taking this today.

So, it's a straight forward 1pt win bet on Reckoning at 7/2 BOG for me today. That price is quite widely available, but I've some money in my Coral account, so I'll be using them, but to see what your bookie is offering...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Goodwood.

Sat TV Trends: 25th Aug 2012

York and Goodwood provide the LIVE C4 action this Saturday - We've got all the key trends and stats to help you.... Read more

TV Trends – Sat 27th Aug

3.20 Good - 1 winner aged 6+ since 1967!

If you love applying key trends to your race assessments then be sure to take in Andy Newton’s Saturday TV Stats  - This week he looks at the LIVE C4 races from Newmarket, Goodwood and Beverley.
Read more