Tag Archive for: H4C Report

Racing Insights, Friday 25/02/22

Friday's free feature is the simply-named Horses for Courses (H4C) report, which does exactly as you'd expect and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track,  sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Sadly, my settings for the H4C report...

...have drawn a blank, but there's always the daily list of 'free' races to consider...

  • 3.05 Warwick
  • 3.50 Exeter
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

There are a couple of Class 3 3m+ chases above and the Exeter one is probably better than the one at Warwick, but the latter has 6 runners on heavy ground as opposed to 13 on soft. Six to twelve runners is my preferred field size and heavy ground is more of a leveller and whilst the Devon National looks a potential cracker, we're going to focus on the 3.05 Warwick, a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Mares' handicap chase taking in 18 fences over a left-handed 3m107yds (after +107yd rail movement) on heavy ground...

...the form horse here is the Williams/Deutsch runner, Eleanor Bob, who is likely to go off quite short as she seeks a hat-trick at the expense of last year's winning jockey (now aboard Glorious Lady) and four others.

Midnightreferendum heads the weights here and seeks a first win in eight since scoring at Fontwell back in November 2020. She was a faller 4 out on her first run after that win, but then ran consistently for some time finishing 23332 before a heavy fall at the last at Aintree two starts ago. Her sole outing since the fall saw her come home last of six in a Listed chase at Doncaster just over eight weeks ago, where she was over 100 lengths behind the winner and 75 behind the fifth placed runner. She's better than that, for sure and drops two classes here, but I can't help but think she'd prefer it a good bit shorter and not quite so muddy.

Farne has only tackled fences twice so far, but certainly caught the eye when third of eight in a Listed contest on chase debut here at Warwick over a half mile shorter in early December despite not having ran for almost nine months. Sadly she was unable to build upon that at Chepstow next/last time out and was last home of four, beaten by 33 lengths. She's still 4lbs higher than her best hurdles effort and she has never gone beyond 2m6f so I don't think she's for me.

Legends Ryde won a Class 4, 3m soft-ground affair at Ffos Las on chasing debut and followed that up with a Class 2 runner-up finish, albeit some 13 lengths off the winner. That said, she was only beaten by L'Homme Pressé, who has since taken his chase record to 4 from 4 by subsequently landing Gr 2 and Gr 1 races (Matt, Sam, Dave & 1 were lucky enough to see him land that Gr 1 by 24 lengths at Sandown three weeks ago). Legends Ryde, however, was disappointing at Lingfield next/last time out, coming in just fifth of eight, beaten by 27 lengths having weakened 4 out in a race that may have been too sharp for her. Back at 3m+, I'd expect more from her here.

Hawthorn Cottage is another who seems to have lost her way of late, 131 in three races from May to November 2021 have been followed by last of four (19L), 5th of 8 (16L) and most recently 6th of 8 (38L). Yes, the middle of those three defeats was a Listed race, but the other two were at this level and the last two at this trip. She has won on heavy, but her best form is on good ground, should give a good account of herself, but I doubt she wins here.

Eleanor Bob is the likely favourite and lurks near the foot of the weights, she comes here on a hat-trick after back to back soft ground 3m handicap chase victories, albeit at Class 4, taking her mark from 107 to today's 120. Just three of her seventeen career starts have been at a higher level than Class 4 and after being 4th of 7 (11L) at Class 3 and 6th of 8 (115L) and last of 4 (36L) in two Listed races, this is no gimme, but she is bang in form right now. The Williams/Deutsch machine is in full flow, as so often seems the case around this time of year when conditions are tough and it's easy to see why Eleanor will be favourite here.

Glorious Lady receives chunks of weight all round, but actually runs from a stone out of the handicap, which isn't going to help her improve a fairly dismal chasing record of no wins and just one place from seven attempts. her placed run was two starts ago at Fakenham, but even then she was beaten by 26 lengths and her other six chasing defeats have been at an average of around 25 lengths. She was rated 119 on chase debut and although running off 102 here, she's actually an 88-rated runner. That's a mark she'll surely win at, but here off a stone more? Unlikely, even if she has last year's winning jockey on board.

Instant Expert highlights...

...four past winners on heavy ground, a couple of Class 3 winners, a couple of course winners and a trio of 3m winners with only Glorious Lady failing to score on any. Eleanor Bob, the form horse, has found her success over fences since switching to front-running, but recent outings say she won't get it all her own way up front this time...

...as Hawthorn Cottage is a confirmed out and out front runner and will certainly contest any attempt by Eleanor Bob to seize the initiative. Farne, on the other hand, is highly likely to be waited with and that approach is unlikely to yield a positive outcome, based on...

...where the advantage will definitely lie with those on the front end.

Summary

I've felt all the way through the analysis that this race is Eleanor Bob's to lose. Yes, she's up in class and weight, but still gets weight from most, she's in good form, as are her yard and rider and her pace profile suggests she'll be well involve.

Of the rest, I think it's too long/muddy for Midnightreferendum who has also been held up of late, whilst Glorious Lady is out of her depth/weight and Farne also carries too much weight, ran poorly last time and needs watching.

That leaves Legends Ryde and Hawthorn Cottage and I've not much between them to be honest. I started out with a slight preference for the former, but the latter scored better on Instant Expert and pace and so, for me, it's down to Hawthorn Cottage at an E/W attractive 13/2 to provide the challenge to 2/1 fav Eleanor Bob, who's still probably worth backing at the price.

Racing Insights, Friday 18/02/22

Friday is Horses for Courses day at Geegeez with a free report that does exactly what it says on the tin and shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. As with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the free H4C report, we also offer these full free racecards for Friday's racing...

  • 3.25 Fakenham
  • 3.35 Kelso
  • 3.45 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Southwell

My Friday H4C report looks like this...

...and I think I'll take a look at those two qualifiers above, starting with Keyser Soze in the 3.15 Lingfield, a 5-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile on standard polytrack...

Keyser Soze has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts in Lingfield A/W handicaps to date, but he's 0/1 over course and distance and only 1 from 10 over a mile throughout his career. He gets on well with today's jockey and they've finished 11042 together, but the horse isn't in the best of form, having failed to win any of his last seven since his sole 1m success at Ascot in late April last year off a mark of 87, yet he now runs off 90.

On the A/W, the story is worse, with him being winless in 14 since scoring over 7f on the Tapeta at Newcastle almost three years ago. The fact that he won off 101 that day shows how out of form he has been. He was only fourth of six back at Newcastle LTO (8f, C3) a fortnight ago, running one paced and ending up eight lengths off the pace.

He's drawn in stall 1 here and although there's not a massive draw bias here...

...the stats do suggest getting away from the rail would be a better position to hold. Speaking of positioning, he does tend to run in the back half of the field, as shown in three of his last four starts...

...but sadly, that doesn't look like it's going to do him many favours here either. So, in short, he's out of form, poorly drawn and has a poor pace profile for this contest. Not great!

*

Charlie Arthur is the second qualifier from my H4C report and he goes in the 7.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class5 , 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m3f on standard to slow tapeta...

Charlie Arthur won here two starts ago by a neck over 1m4f off 2lbs lower than today's mark, the same mark as when finishing third of seven over the same trip at Kempton last time out, beaten by three lengths. His A/W record is reasonable at 6 from 26, but he's actually 5 from 6 here at Southwell. He hasn't tackled this 1m3f before, but he's 3 from 3 over a mile here and has finished 411 over a mile and a half, so should have no issues getting the trip. This is only his second run on the new Tapeta surface here, but that win two starts ago was ample proof that he'll "get" it again.

Stall 1 is where he's also been berthed and albeit off limited data from the new track, that's not ideal...

The place stats, however, are decent enough and our pace/draw heatmap...

...suggests that from a low draw, he's going to need to crack on with it early doors. Fortunately for him he does like to race up with the pace, as identified by his last three outings, including leading when winning here two starts ago...

So, he clearly loves it here at Southwell, is in decent enough form and despite a poor-looking draw, might be able to negate that with a fast start. That said, if you can't make up for a bd draw in a field of less than ten runners over any distance greater than a mile, there's not much down for you anyway.

Summary

For me, Keyser Soze's run of poor form is likely to continue and I don't see him in the first two home. Shoot To Kill and Fox Power are 11/4 jt favs here and I expect them to be the first two home, probably in that order.

Charlie Arthur, however, has a great chance, I feel. He won't have it all his on way, of course but at 5/1, he's pretty attractively priced to land this. The main danger is surely the 2/1 favourite Maharashtra who is in prime form (16112 in his last five)

Racing Insights, Friday 11/02/22

A nice 9/2 winner and 32/1 forecast on Thursday topped the kitty up a little ahead of Friday, which is Horses for Courses day at Geegeez and the H4C report does exactly what you'd expect by showing the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track. It is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at the user’s discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My Friday H4C report looks like this (you can change your parameters, of course)...

and this is supplemented by the following free 'races of the day'...

  • 1.10 Kempton
  • 1.55 Bangor
  • 3.40 Bangor
  • 5.00 Dundalk
  • 5.30 Dundalk

And I think I'll look at my qualifiers from the H4C report today, starting with Prince Abu in the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m2½f on standard to slow tapeta...

This 5 yr old has made the frame in each of his last five starts, winning three times and also this run has taken his mark up 15lbs in total, he's still expected to put up a bold show on a track where he has finished 63121 in five handicap runs, but he's now running 2f further than ever before and he's up in class and weight following a pretty facile 5 length win over 2m at Kempton last week. Prior to that he won here over 2m½f a fortnight after his only previous run at Class 5, when only beaten by a length and a quarter over 1m6f here, but staying on well.

The stats above are backed up by Instant Expert...

...which shows his defeat as runner-up on his only previous Class 5 start and also highlights the fact that he hasn't raced this far before. Mind you only two of the field have tackled this trip before and neither look dangerous here.

At this point we'd normally look at pace and draw, but with the new tapeta track still in its infancy, we don't have enough reliable data to lean on, so it's 'gut feeling' time. I think that a 6lb penalty shouldn't enough to hold him back here. He's drawn out in 6 of 8 stalls, but that's not an issue as he's a confirmed hold-up horse, so those 1-5 will set off quicker and he'll just tuck in at the back and ride his own race hopefully unhindered and I think he's the one to beat here, ahead of Black Kalanisi and First Charge. Whether I back him or not will depend on the market later, but I suspect we'll be looking at 7/4 to 2/1 about Prince Abu.

Jenson Benson then runs in the 7.15 Chelmsford, a race that we should have more data on, with it being a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Five of his last six runs have been here at Chelmsford, making the frame on every occasion, finishing 13132, including 112 over course and distance having gone down by just a neck last time out. He clearly likes it here, as he has no form at all anywhere else (575853) with the '3'3 being a nine lengths 3rd of 4 at Kempton, admittedly over 1m4f a class higher than today. He has made the frame here in a higher class, when third off a mark of 63 over 1m2f here three starts ago. Back to his preferred mile and with his jockey taking 3lbs off a mark of 64, this is well within his grasp.

Instant Expert points out that it's his Class 5 bow...

...but he does have that Class 4 third place under his belt from November. Going, course and distance are all fine, as you'd expect and his place stats are even better...

...with the only potential issue being that mark of 64, but as I said, he was third at Class 4 off 63 and with today's jockey taking 3lbs off, a Class 5 race is well within his comfort zone. He's drawn slap bang in the middle of the stalls in 4 of 7 and although that's not the best draw (low is king here), plenty of horses have run well from 4 of 7...

Ideally at Chelmsford, you get out quickly and stay out in front as long as you can and the challenge generally eventually comes from the mid-division stayer and mid-div is probably where we'll find Jenson Benson. It's not the best place to run on this track, but with an IV of 1.00, it does as well as you'd expect...

Finery is the one likely to set the fractions and hope to hold on in this one and I suppose the question is whether JB can catch the mare who'll carry 10lbs less than our featured runner. I do think that Jenson Benson is the one I'd want to be on, but Finery's light weight and front-running tactics from favoured stall 1 will make it really tough/tight here with Always Fearless probably the danger to that pair. So much so that I'm going to want 7/2 or even 4/1 to get involved.

Summary

I do like both H4C runners, but I'm never interested in backing winners purely for strike rate purposes, they simply have to be at a price I'm happy with and I'd want at least 7/4 about Prince Abu and 7/2 about Jenson Benson.

At 4.10pm, I could get 7/4 about the Prince, but there was no market for the later race. I'll have to check the odds later for that to see if I can get 7/2 or better about Jenson and I also think that a small saver bet on Finery at 6's or better wouldn't be a bad play either.