Tag Archive for: H4C Report

Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 2.45 Bangor
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 9.00 Kempton

And if I'm honest, none of those races above really float my boat, so I'll switch my attention to the day's highest-rated race, the 4.45 Ascot, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

It looks like a pretty open contest between ten runners who failed to even make the frame last time out, but Dear My Friend has won three of his last eight, Hafeet Alain is two from four, Bennetot and Theoryofeverything both won their penultimate race, Navagio is two from seven, Son of Man won on debut six starts ago and Inspiritus has two wins and fur runner-up finishes from his last eight.

Conversely Awaal, Tempus and Classic are winless in their most recent 7, 14 and 7 races respectively.

All ten ran in this grade last time out and Son of Man makes a yard debut for Jim Boyle, whilst receiving a 5lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the race, but he's one of four runners (along with Theoryofeverything, Classic and Inspiritus) who have yet to win over today's trip, whilst only Tempus has scored here at Ascot previously, landing a pair of course and distance handicaps in 2020 and 2022, but sadly they don't show up on the two-year overview on Instant Expert, which says he's 0 from 6 here in that period...

He's also 0/5 at Class 2 and 0/10 over a mile, which probably explains why he's 13lbs below his last win. Hafeet Alain is probably the best asuited by these conditions, but there are questions to be asked about Bennetot (class/trip), Theoryofeverything (class), Classic (class/trip) and Awaal (class), if I apply 'my red after 5+ runs' criteria/rule. With so much red around, we're going to ned to look at the place data to see if any have come close to winning...

...and this launches Awaal right into contention too. He's going to race from widest of all in stall 10 and whilst there's a marginal win bias for those drawn more centrally, he's in the right place to make the frame as the PB3 scores suggest stalls 4 and higher are the ideal starting points if we use a figure of 0.50 as our benchmark...

From a pace perspective, leaders and hold-up horses tend to fare best with those caught in the middle not doing as well...

...and if recent efforts are anything to go by, the pace is likley to be set by Hafeet Alain and Inspiritus...

...with Bennetot and Navagio the likely back markers.

Summary

There's no real standout pick for me here today having done my usual checks. I've got it in my head that the likes of Awaal and Bennetot would be the ones to beat today based on past endeavours, but if I'm putting horses forward based on the racecard/tools provided, then there's nothing there to back up my thoughts and we're not relying on gut feeling here.

What the above analysis does tell us is that Hafeet Alain has won two of his last four and was the pick on Instant Expert. he's also likely to set the tempo of the race which gives him a great chance of making the frame, so my tentative suggestion today is Hafeet Alain as an E/W option. He was a 10/1 shot at 3.50pm with Hills, but will probably find at least one rival too good for him.

Racing Insights, Friday 30/08/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just two qualifiers for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 4.05 Down Royal
  • 4.15 Thirsk
  • 4.45 Southwell
  • 4.50 Thirsk
  • 7.25 Wexford

...and I think I'll look at the first of our list of free races, the 3.15 Thirsk, a 9-runner, Class 3 , 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

...where Makanah was the only one to win last time out, although top-weight Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby were all placed third and all nine runners have won at least one of their last six outings with Ventura Express and Miss Bodacious scoring twice.

Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2, but Rousing Encore, Miss Bodacious and Beattie Is Back are all up one class for a race that sees both Rousing Encore and Reveiller make debuts for their new handlers, whilst Miss Bodacious will wear a visor for the first time. She, along with Reveiller, will receive a useful 3lbs weight for age allowance here too.

Most of the field have raced at least once in the last five weeks and Reveiller latest run was eight weeks ago, but Beattie Is Back might well need the run, having been in the shed since mid-May 2023 and he's also one of just three runners here (Ventura Express and Reveiller) yet to win over today's trip. Of the six who have won over 6f previously, class-dropper Brazen Bolt and Tinto are course and distance winners, whilst Makanah has also won at this venue, albeit over 5f way back in mid-May 2019, which of course, won't show up on the two-year form record on Instant Expert, which suggests that Tinto might struggle at this level, having lost 12 of 14 starts at Class 3...

...whereas Makanah has won half of his four efforts. Tinto's record over this trip is even worse than his Class 3 numbers, whilst Rousing Encore makes no appeal at all. Perhaps they've been unlucky and have a string of placed finishes behind them? Let's check...

Unsurprisingly, that's not the case, but Brazen Bolt is now in my mind as a possible placer. In addition to those numbers above, he has been in the frame four times from five on good ground and he's only a pound higher than his last win and he's well drawn here in stall 4. You don't usually get much of a draw bias over a straight 6f on decent ground, but those drawn in the lowest six stalls do seem to have performed a little better than those in 7 or higher...

...but if that's a bit of a surprise, then the fact that front-runners fare best here won't be too much of a shock...

...giving us this pace/draw heat map...

...suggesting that the best positions would be a low-drawn leader or mid-drawn runners in prominent/mid-division places. And if we look at the field's most recent races...

...there's no real proven front runner, but Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by the pace/draw situation

Summary

Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Trilby performed the best last time out. Brazen Bolt and Trilby both drop down from Class 2 and Makanah, Ventura Express, Tinto and Brazen Bolt were the picks from Instant Expert, whilst Brazen Bolt and Rousing Encore seem best suited by pace/draw.

Of those mentioned above, I think I like Trilby best based on his third placed run in a higher grade from out of the handicap last time out and he'd be my pick ahead of Makanah. It's then easy to make a case for any of the other three, but I think I'd side with Brazen Bolt. he ticks more boxes for me and is likely to offer the best value, speaking of which : here's the market as of 3.50pm Thursday...

 

Racing Insights, Friday 23/08/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.10 Newmarket
  • 2.25 York
  • 3.45 Ffos Las
  • 4.30 Newmarket
  • 5.50 Goodwood
  • 7.12 Killarney

...the highest rated of which is the 2.25 York, a 9-runner, Group 2 contest for horses aged 3 or over. The going is expected to be good firm and the trip is a left-handed 2m 78yds after a 22 yard rail adjustment...

Al Nayyir hasn't raced in the UK for almost four years since his debut at Kempton, but has won two of his last eight in France. Alsakib won last time out and has won three of his last seven. Gregory made the frame last time out for a fifth defeat on the bounce since completing a hat-trick in the Queen's Vase at Ascot in June '23. Point Lonsdale was third in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time out and won the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May on his last UK outing.

Quickthorn won the Gr1 Goodwood Cup last August, but has failed to impress in his three runs since finishing 6th of 7 in this race last year, then last of 5 and 4th of 8 in two lower class races. Tashkan won a Class 2 handicap at Chester last September and came within a length of landing the Cesarewitch a fortnight later, but has been disappointing this term, going down by 32L and 10l in his two starts.

Vauban won a 16-runner Class 2 handicap at Ascot in June '23 and then a Group 3 contest at Naas seven weeks later and has made the frame in a couple of group 2 races this season already. Night Sparkle won a trio of handicaps back to back last summer and has been a runner-up in three of his four starts this year. Align The Stars comes here off the back of three handicap successes, but will step up in both class and trip today.

Al Nayyir has been gelded since his last run and also makes a yard debut for Tom Clover, meaning this will be his fourth yard debut in ten races! The 5yo mare Night Sparkle receives a 3lbs weight allowance here and Align The Stars receives a more than useful 12lbs as the race's only 3 yr old.

Alsakib was a Group 3 winner here at York on his last outing and of his rivals, only Quickthorn has won over this trip, scoring over course and distance under today's jockey Tom Marquand in this very race in 2022, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Alsakib is probably the standout overall, but Point Lonsdale does have those three Class 1 wins to his name. Tashkan, Vauban, and Night Sparkle have struggled to win top-flight races, whilst the first two of that trio look the weakest on that graphic, but Vauban does have this knack of making the frame, which means I'm not ruling him out of my thoughts just yet...

Over a race of this distance, I wouldn't expect the draw to be a massively deciding factor, but runners in stall 1 have a ridiculously high win ration in comparison to the rest of the stalls...

...landing almost a quarter of those races above. The pace stats for those races above aren't entirely conclusive either, but horses running in mid-division have fared the best, whilst those setting the pace have had a target on their backs...

If we look at how this field have approached their most recent outings, it's difficult to assume who might be setting the tempo today, as all bar Vauban and Alsakib have an average pace score of 3.00 (prominent) or higher!

Summary

I think that seven of the nine might get involved in a bit of a bunfight for the lead at some point and this might lead to some wilting under the pressure, opening the door for a late run from Vauban and/or Alsakib, both of whom are more than capable of making the frame.

As for those seeking to set the pace, Night Sparkle and Align the Stars both scored well on Instant Expert, but in races like this, the cream usually rises to the top and I think that Point Lonsdale is the best horse in the race, even if the stats above don't back me up and for me, he's definitely in my top three today.

I'd then take two of Vauban, Alsakib, Night Sparkle and Align The Stars and it's the latter I'm ruling out first. Yes, he's in great form, but steps up in trip and this is a far tougher proposition than a Class 2 handicap. He's only 3 yrs old and bigger/better days are on his horizon, but probably not today.

Night Sparkle looks like the perennial bridesmaid and might struggle back amongst male company, so I'm dropping her here too, leaving me with Point Lonsdale as my best in race and Vauban/Alsakib as my possible placers, so let's check the market at 4.50pm Thursday...

Point Lonsdale isn't a surprising favourite here and he's pretty much about the price I expected (I'd jotted 2/1 to 5/2 on my pad). Vauban looks terribly short for a horse that rarely wins under these conditions, but Alsakib is very interesting from an E/W perspective at 10/1.

Racing Insights, Friday 16/08/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a pair of qualifiers from the same race...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards, which for this Friday are...

  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 5.00 Tramore
  • 5.35 Tramore
  • 6.30 Thirsk
  • 6.38 Tramore
  • 7.25 Newmarket

...and I think I'll look at the battle between H4C report runners Aces Wild and Nelson Gay in the 4.10 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 5f 21yds on standard tapeta...

Only the fast finisher Aces Wild made the frame on their last run, as he won here over course and distance by a head 18 days ago for a third C&D win in the last five months. Elsewhere Pop Dancer won seven races ago, but the rest of the field are winless in seven or more outings with very few placed finishes!

Dubai Station, Ancient Times and Nelson Gay all drop a class from Class 4 today, whilst Mondammej was last seen going down by 7 lengths at Class 2. Phoenix beach steps up in class as he runs for Scott Dixon for the first time, having failed to won any of his last seven for Richard Fahey.

Nelson Gay, Aces Wild and Ancient Times have all raced in the last 2 to 4 weeks, Mondammej and Dubai Station have had a couple of months rest, whilst Phoenix Beach and Pop Dancer return from breaks of 10 weeks and 3 months respectively.

Phoenix Beach is the only one of the seven yet to win over this trip and like Ancient Times, he has yet to win here at Wolverhampton. Of the five course winners, only Dubai Station has yet to win over course and distance as his 5f win came at Haydock and his course win here was over 6f.

The 2-year form shown on Instant Expert isn't exactly littered with wins, but our pair from the H4C report catch the eye, as does Pop Dancer...

The going looks against Dubai Station, Mondammej and Nelson Gay here and Mondammej has a poor return over 5f on the A/W, whilst Phoenix Beach's record at Class 5 isn't great. Dubai Station and Mondammej are rated some 15lbs and 27lbs lower than their last A/W wins, but that's because they're on losing runs of 16 and 39 races respectively rather than them being better than their mark might suggest and Mondammej's figures don't even improve if we focus on placed finishes either...

And this graphic surely puts paid to any chance of me putting money on him or Ancient Times, even if the pair are situated in what looks the better half of the draw if there is one...

That said, it's a five furlong sprint, so the emphasis in a small field is going to be on early speed and front-runners have dominated those 120 races above...

...providing some 36.7% of the winners and some 27.3% of the placers from just 18.4% of the winners, which based on recent outings...

...could be good news for connections of Pop Dancer.

Summary

Not well drawn and not particularly suited by the pace profiling today, Aces Wild still won last time out over this course and distance from stall 7 (as he is today) from the rear of the field. He's the only runner coming here in any real form and must be the one to beat despite the above analysis suggesting he might struggle.

I'd no odds to hand when I wrote this piece just after 3pm on Thursday, but I suspect he'll go off shorter than 2/1, which isn't normally my bag. That said, he's a course and distance specialist in good form and 2/1, if available, might be a very good price.

Elsewhere, the rest of the field are much of a muchness, but the one I have some interest in is Pop Dancer, who scored well enough on Instant Expert, has been drawn in stall 1 and is likely to lead. He was 3 lengths behind Aces Wild last time out, but re-opposes 4lbs better off which might get him a little closer.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 09/08/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 3.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.50 Musselburgh
  • 6.00 Newmarket
  • 8.10 Tipperary
  • 8.25 Wexford

...from which, we'll head North of the Border for the 3.50 Musselburgh, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good to firm ground...

Gressington comes here on the back of a win over 7½f at Beverley for his second success in a six-race career to date and he has also made the frame in two of his four defeats. None of his rivals won last time out, but On A Session (3rd), Judgment Call (2nd) and Dain Ma Nut In (3rd) all made the frame, whilst Adduction, Media Shooter and Moreginplease have all won one of their last seven races.

On A Session, Judgment Call and Ugo Gregory, however, are on losing runs of 18, 8 and 11 races respectively, whilst handicap debutant Dain Ma Nut In is a five-race maiden. Top-weight Abduction and Media Shooter (first-time cheekpieces today) both drop down two classes, but bottom weight Moreginplease is up two levels and Judgment Call also steps up a class. Most of the field have raced in the last 4 to 18 days, but the layoffs of Abduction (27 days) and Dain Ma Nut In (45 days) really shouldn't affect their own performances.

Half of this field (Gressington, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) are still only 3 yrs old, so they get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today, but three of them (Dain Ma Nut In and Moreginplease) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst On A Session and Judgment Call have both won over course and distance; the latter doing so in this very race last year off a mark 3lbs lower than today's. Both course wins are shown below on Instant Expert...

...which is a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told. In-form Gressington is probably the one to beat, but track wins aside Judgment Call also has decent numbers. Class 4 wins have also been hard to come by of late for Ugo Gregory, whilst Abduction is winless after racing here seven times in the last two years. The trip doesn't appear to have been particularly kind towards On A Session and Ugo Gregory and these two look very weak from a win perspective and the latter has poor place stats too...

...so I think I'm done with him as a contender. Mind you, the draw stats for past races here do him few favours either...

...with stalls 1 to 5 probably the place to be, whilst from a pace perspective those seventy races above have been dominated by front-runners, although the prominent chasers have done pretty well too...

So, if any of Moreginplease, Judgement Call, Media Shooter, Dain Ma Nut In and Gressington find themselves in the front half of the pack, then they could well be the ones who make the frame or ultimately go on to win. If we then look at how they've approached their last few races...

...we see that three of them fit this particular bill.

Summary

From pace/draw, the three that tick the boxes are Dain Ma Nut In, Judgement Call and Gressington would be the ones to focus upon, but only Gressington comes here in any real form, so almost by default he's the pick here. Sadly he was a 9/4 shot at 6.15pm on Thursday, but he'd be my most likely winner here.

Dain Ma Nut In and Judgement Call were both available at 15/2 and that's borderline E/W territory and I think both stand a good chance of making the frame here based on the evidence above.

Racing Insights, Friday 02/08/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just the one qualifier for this Friday...

...but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

    • 3.00 Goodwood
    • 4.30 Newcastle
    • 4.45 Goodwood
    • 5.05 Newcastle
    • 8.40 Galway
    • 8.50 Musselburgh

Our runner from the H4C report does go in our of out two 'free' races from Goodwood, but both have far too many runners for me, so I'm swerving both, just as I'm going to pass on the other three UK races, all of which look like poor Class 6 affairs. There are however, a couple of Class 2 contests on the Goodwood card, so let's look at the 4.10 race, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

...where I think Haunted Dream's mark of 104 is missing and that My Prospero looks at least 2lbs well in (over Cairo) if this was a handicap.

Cicero's Gift (has won four of his five starts) and Crown Board are the only ones coming here off a win, although the latter may well be in need of a run some 227 days after scoring on debut at Wolverhampton just before Christmas, as might My Prospero who hasn't raced since Champions day at Ascot last October. Sir Busker has been off for just over four months, but the remainder have all raced in the last 45 days.

Aside from our two LTO winners, none of the other six even made the frame last time out, but all bar Haunted Dream and Sir Busker have at least one win in their last six starts, whilst this pair are both on losing runs of ten races, even if the latter is denoted on the card as a fast-finisher. Perhaps he needs to get going sooner?

He wears cheekpieces for the first time today, as does Cairo whilst it's a first time in a tongue-tie for both Haunted Dream and Liberty Lane. My Prospero, Prague and Cairo all drop down in class here after defeats at Group 1, Listed class and Group 1 respectively, but Crown Board's debut win LTO 227 days ago was only a Class 5 novice event on the tapeta.

That win was at least over today's trip and Cicero's Gift & Liberty Lane have also scored over this distance in the past. Cicero's Gift has also won here at Goodwood before, but that was over a mile. Sir Busker has won here over 7f and My Prospero over 1m2f, but no course and distance winners.

Most of these lack experience, but My Prospero, Cicero's Gift and Liberty Lane are probably the ones who stand out most on Instant Expert...

...which doesn't portray Haunted Dream and Sir Busker in a great light although the former has a great place record at Class 2, whilst the latter would seem to 'get' the ground...

Previous similar races here have shown very little in the way of a draw bias, but if you wanted to be picky, you'd choose a more central position if you could...

...but there's probably more advantage to be gained, by ensuing that you were in the 'right' place in the pack and that, for me, is tracking the leader(s)...

...but leading is still preferable to mid-division of further back, which based on recent efforts would seem to favour Prague, Crown Board, My Prospero and Liberty Lane...

...with the obvious caveat that there's a lack of data for the two inexperienced runners at the top of that list.

Summary

I'm a bit torn here, because the form horse here is clearly Cicero's Gift and he scored well enough on Instant Expert but he'd need to race slightly more prominently to not let the race disappear from grasp, whereas My Prospero also scored well on IE and is likely to race more prominently and takes a drop in class here, so i suspect that these two might well be the first two home and if I had to choose between the two, I think I'd go with Cicero's Gift.

As for a placer, I think Liberty Lane or Prague might well fit the bill, but you'll get a better place on the latter, so that's where the value would be according to the market at 3.35pm Thursday...

Racing Insights, Friday 26/07/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Ascot
  • 6.30 Sandown
  • 6.50 Chepstow

...the highest-rated of which is the 3.35 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good/good to firm ground...

Chasing Aphrodite, Insanity and Mutaawid all won last time out, whilst Burdett Road, Hosaamm, Wonder Kid and Mount Atlas all had top-three finishes.

All nine runners have won at least one of their last three outings, but whilst Burdett Road and Tabletalk drop down in class today, Chasing Aphrodite and Wonder Kid are up from Class 3, Insanity is up from Class 4 and Hosaamm steps up from Class 5 for his handicap debut.

It's also handicap debut day for Mutaaid, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas, whilst Alfred Boucher runs for the first time since being pulled up at Chester 22 months ago. He's entitled to need the run, but might be worth keeping an eye out for in future as he finished 2212 at Class 2 in the four runs before he was pulled up LTO.

Top weight Burdett Road might also need the run as he comes back from a six month break since a Grade 2 runner-up run at Cheltenham over hurdles and now runs on the Flat for the first time in eleven months. Insanity has been off the track for three months, but the others have all had at least one run in the last 13 (Wonder Kid) to 55 (Tabletalk) days.

Only four of this field (Alfred Boucher, Insanity, Mutaawid & Wonder Kid) have scored over today's trip with Alfred Boucher winning over course and distance three years ago; Burdett Road (1m2f) and Chasing Aphrodite (1m) have also tasted success on this track in the past as shown below in the 2-year stats on Instant Expert...

As you can see, the going shouldn't be an issue to most of this field, but they are shy on Class 2 runs/wins although Chasing Aphrodite is also 2 from 3 at Class 3. Insanity and Wonder Kid are the pick of the pack over this trip, but the latter is now rated some 11lbs higher than his last win, as is top-weight Burdett Road. The place stats from those races tell a similar story and neither help nor hinder us...

With regards to the draw, past races here over this going, track and trip have favoured runners in stalls 5, 6 and 7 from a win perspective, with those berthed in stall 5 or higher having the best chance of making the frame, although the margins are a little tighter for the places...

...whilst the pace data from those races suggests that horses can win from anywhere in the pack, even if those in mid-division haven't quite done as well as others...

...creating this resultant draw/pace heat map...

So, we can see where we'd like each runner to be in the field as they run. Those drawn centrally can run their own race, but those drawn lowest will probably need to lead, whilst the higher drawn trio would be advised to sit in. We now need to check how they 'normally' run, now some of these only have three runs to their name, so looking at the entire field's last three outings...

...we see that Burdett Road might well fulfil the role of high drawn hold-up horse, whilst from the lowest drawn trio, Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid may well be the ones setting the tempo of the race.

Summary

I think I'm going to go with the three who aren't drawn centrally, but do tick the pace/draw heat map boxes ie Chasing Aphrodite, Mutaawid and Burdett Road.

I know Burdett Road might need the run, but his last two races were a win and a runner-up finish in Grade 2 company, albeit over hurdles and his last flat handicap run saw him win here at Ascot at this grade last year. he'd be an unlikely winner, but a 'live' E/W prospect if the price is/was right.

Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid both won last time out, one has won here and one has won over this trip, but the handicap debutant Mutaawid gets an 11lbs weight for age allowance and that should swing things his way .

The bookies, however, take a slightly different view on things and at 5.30pm Thursday they went...

...they do agree that Mutaawid is the likeliest winner here, but are less keen on Burdett Road and very cold about Chasing Aphrodite's prospects, but I think he might be a decent 14/1 E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/07/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated just the one runner for me to consider...

Thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.50 Nottingham
  • 4.45 Newbury
  • 5.07 Down Royal
  • 6.25 Newmarket
  • 8.10 Newmarket

...but the H4C race is rated higher than any of the list above, so I'm going to look at Jordan Electrics and the 6.35 Hamilton, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where my initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the afore-mentioned Jordan Electrics from the H4C report and bottom-weight Tiriac.

Jordan Electrics actually comes here seeking a hat-trick and has three wins and a runner-up (beaten by a neck) finish from his last four outings and has five wins from his last seven. Top-weight Spangled Mac is the only other LTO winner in the field, but he has been away from the track for over eight months and might well be in need of a run before getting back to his best.

Aside from these two LTO winners, only Manila Scouse's runner-up (bt by 1.25L) effort at Thirsk a fortnight ago is the only place finish any of the field achieved on their last run and Rocket Rodney, Silky Wilkie, First Folio and Londoner are all winless in at least seven (10, 16, 13 & 12 to be precise!) runs.

First Folio's chances of a first win in 14 races surely won't be helped by a step up in class, as do the fast-finishing returnee Spangled Mac and Manila Scouse, whilst my two 'most likelys', Jordan Electrics & Tiriac, are both up two classes today.

Spangled Mac has a 5lb claimer on board to ease the burden of being top-weight, whilst it's first-time blinkers for Magical Spirit and a hood for Londoner.

Jordan Electrics has five wins and four further places from fourteen efforts over course and distance, hence his place on the H4C report, but Manila Scouse has also won over track and trip as recently as early June, three starts ago. Rocket Rodney and Londoner are the only two without a win over today's trip and in addition to our two course and distance winners, Silky Wilkie has also won here, scoring over 5f on her sole previous visit to the track two years and four days ago, which therefore doesn't quite make it onto the two-year record on Instant Expert...

The sharper eyed amongst you will notice that I've also included Class 3 results, because none of them have won in this grade on the Flat over the last couple of years! There's no shock to find that Jordan Electrics is the eyecatcher and my main areas of concern are for First Folio, Raatea and Manila Scouse at the trip. Perhaps they've been unlucky not to win and have made the frame in gallant defeats?

Well, there's definitely some form of redemption for Manila Scouse, whose place stats suggest that he might well be an E/W contender here, but First Folio and Raatea still look vulnerable over the trip.

As you'd probably expect by now, a straight six furlongs on good ground shouldn't really be too affected by the draw, but front-running is to be rewarded...

...which, surprise surprise, is yet more good news for Jordan Electrics...

...but another blow to Raatea's chances.

Summary

You'll be surprised to hear/read that I'm with Jordan Electrics for this one. The above sets of data make it hard to oppose this in-form track and trip specialist, even if he is up in weight and class. We're not getting rich off this 3/1 fav**, but he should be the winner. As for a second option, Manila Scouse looks good as a possible E/W bet, especially if we can get more than the 13/2** currently being offered.

**odds are from Hills, only book open at 4.25pm Thursday.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 12/07/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Dundalk
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.10 Ascot
  • 5.50 Chepstow

The highest-rated of all those races above is obviously the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, aka the 2.25 Newmarket, but 2 yr old fillies really aren't my thing. Next 'best' on the list is the 5.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

...where surprisingly not one of them managed to win last time out and only Rhythm n Hooves had a top three finish as a three-length runner-up at Newmarket, but half a doxen of the field have won at least once in their last seven starts (Glenfinnan, Executive Decision and Bishops Crown all doing so twice), whilst Mums Tipple, Fresh and The Big Board's current cold spells stand at 12. 14 and 8 consecutive defeats respectively.

Fresh and Mums Tipple's hopes of a return to winning ways are boosted by them dropping down a class, as do the other two runners, Glenfinnan and Rizg, in the top four of the weights. Executive Decision also drops in class, but The Big Board steps up a class despite losing each of his eight outings. Rizg and Jarraaf both run in handicaps for just the second time and top weight Glenfinnan makes a debut in cheekpieces.

All of them have already tasted victory over today's trip and both Rhythm n Hooves and The Big Board have already won on this track, albeit over 5f, but Glenfinnan, Mums Tipple and Fresh are all former course and distance winners with Glenfinnan's win two months and three starts ago the most recent and he was only beaten by less than two lengths here over track and trip last time out, when a gallant 5th of 25 in the Wokingham. That said, he still has to play second fiddle to Executive Decision when it comes to looking at the two-year win records documented by Instant Expert...

...where the red flags for me are with Mums Tipple and Fresh over today's trip, although the latter's recent poor form sees him some 11lbs below his last winning mark, so he could be dangerously weighted if finally finding his feet again. And I suppose you could say the same about The Big Board, who is 8lbs lower than his own last win and has no red on the graphic above. He could be a contender for the frame, if the following place stats are kind...

Sadly, I'd say they weren't kind enough for him to be in my immediate eye-line, but he can stay under consideration for now, but I'm going to put Rizg, Fresh and Jarraaf on the 'doubtful' list prior to checking the draw and pace stats.

The afore-mentioned Rizg is actually drawn in stall 1, which has done extremely well here in the past which I presume is down to having the rail as a guide. From a place perspective, I'd say those drawn in 5 or higher have fared best of all...

...in 50-odd races that have slightly favoured those willing to get on with things...

...which could be good news for the relatively in-form Rhythm n Hooves if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...and although doubtful after Instant Expert, Jarraaf looks well poised from a pace perspective and he's just about on the 'right' side of the draw stats, so he could be interesting.

Summary

Glenfinnan was the one that I thought might come out of this the best, a course and distance winner just two months and three starts ago and arriving here off the back of a really good effort in the Wokingham. Sadly the pace/draw stats don't back up his claims entirely, but I think he's dangerous here. Jarraaf is unexposed under these conditions, is just about in the right part of the draw and may well be the pace-setter today, which puts him in contention alongside fellow front runner Rhythm n Hooves.

Rhythm n Hooves is in decent nick with a win three starts ago and a runner-up finish last time out, he'll be up with the pace and is drawn even better than Jarraaf. He doesn't have a great record at Class 3, but did win a 26-runner Class 2 handicap here last summer beating subsequent Group 2 and Listed class runners in the process.

So, that's my three against the field in what looks a pretty open contest.

Racing Insights, Friday 05/07/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.30 Cork
  • 4.50 Sandown
  • 5.30 Beverley
  • 6.50 Cork
  • 9.00 Haydock

...and I think I'll focus upon the 4.50 Sandown, a 7-runner, Listed race for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed two miles on good/good to firm ground and here's how they're expected to line up...

Surprisingly for a race of this grade, none of this field won last time out, but Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion were runners-up in Class 2 handicaps, whiulst Trueshan was third here over course and distance in a Group 3 contest. Run For Oscar, Sleeping Lion and Miss Cynthia are the three without a win in their last four starts, having lost each of their last 10, 10 and 12 starts respectively with the latter still a maiden.

Run For Oscar and Sleeping Lion's chances of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by the step up in calss, whilst Roberto Escobarr's debut for Ian Williams also sees him step up from Class 2.

9st 2lbs is the standard allotted weight here, but the two females, Miss Cynthia and Night Sparkle each receiv a 5lb allowance, but this still leaves Quickthorn 2lbs better off than Trueshan at the head of the ratings with Sleeping Lion worst off, rated some 19lbs inferior to Quickthorn.

All bar the two females have won over this trip already with both Quickthorn and Roberto Escobarr having won over course and distance...

Instant Expert suggests that Sleeping Lion had has trouble getting his nose in front on good/good to firm ground and further inspection shows that his best form has been on the A/W at Kempton and he has also performed better over shorter trips. Elsewhere no real cause for concern with the highest drawn trio looking like the ones to focus here, not withstanding the fact that Roberto Escobarr might well need the run after a six month break.

Those drawn highest have actually fared a little worse than par here over longer distances, but it's not a huge bias and the draw really shouldn't be the reason why a horse loses a race that's two miles long...

...but pace might be a different issue completely with this type of race suiting front runners more than the other running styles.

If we then look at how this field has raced in their last couple of outings...

...we're looking at the same three runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

Instant Expert and Pace profiling have both led us to Quickthorn, Trueshan and Roberto Escobarr. The latter looks the weakest of the trio and will probably need the run anyway, but might not bad for a small E/W punt at 14/1 with Bet365, but the first two home here really should be Quickthorn and Trueshan and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with the latter.

Trueshan and Quickthorn were the last two home of five in the Gr 3 Sagaro Stakes at the start of May with Trueshan 11 lengths clear of Quickthorn, despite carrying 7lbs more. They meet again on equal terms, so I'm with Trueshan here.

The bookies disagree, mind you, with Quickthorn currently 13/8 and Trueshan at 9/4.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 4.15pm Thursday

Racing Insights, Friday 28/06/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have still managed to yield three qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.55 Yarmouth
  • 4.05 Yarmouth
  • 5.25 Newcastle
  • 6.40 Curragh
  • 8.20 Newcastle
  • 8.45 Newmarket

The highest-rated of the eight UK races listed above probably has a runner or two more than I'm normally comfortable with, but I think I'll still take a look at the 5.25 Newcastle, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Copper Knight actually won this race in 2018 and was the runner-up in 2019, whilst the fast-finisher Vintage Clarets' sole A/W outing to date saw him home as the 12/1 winner in last year's renewal.

FORM : Navello and Copper Knight both won last time out, whilst Prince of Zenda, Navello, Ziggy's Missile and Mattice have all won at least two of their last six outings. Thunder Moor and Moonstone Boy both finished third on their last runs. Winless in seven or more, though are Makanah, Bergerac and Monsieur Kodi after 9, 7 and 9 consecutive defeats respectively.

CLASS : Ziggy's Missile and Copper Knight are both up one class, whilst it's a two-step rise for Moonstone Boy and Monsieur Kodi.

WHAT'S NEW : Project Dante makes a yard debut for Geoff Oldroyd and it's first time equipment/headgear for Thunder Moor (blinkers) and Ziggy's Missile (cheekpieces).

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Brazen Bolt and Prince of Zenda have won over today's trip already, but this pair have at least won here at Newcastle in the past; the former over both 6f and 7f with the latter winning over 6f. We know that by winning this race in previous years that Vintage Clarets and Copper Knight are course and distance winners, but Bergerac also scored over track and trip last November.

LAST RAN : Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, but Brazen Bolt returns from a 15-week layoff which isn't ideal, but it's hardly anything like that of Project Dante who hasn't been since finishing 14th of 19 at Doncaster in mid-September 2022!

Our two-year form snapshot on Instant Expert doesn't show a glut of A/W racing, but this is how they've fared in that time frame...

...where aside from Vintage Clarets' win here last year, Ziggy's Missile looks interesting. He's the only 3yr old in the race and gets a 6lbs allowance for that and his A/W form reads 1121, all over 5f with two wins at Southwell and 1 at Wolverhampton. His sole defeat was here at Newcastle over course and distance just before Easter when beaten by a head, getting caught late on by a horse that is 2 from 2 since.

Despite the abundance of red above, it's all off less than five runs, so I'd be reluctant to use this data to rule any of these out right now, but I would want to see them having made the frame a few times...

This speaks for itself, I think. The regular placers are the ones most likely to be involved again, so from Instant Expert, these are the ones I'm leaning towards...

I've taken five runners out so far (I left Copper Knight and Navello in on form), but I've still got horses strung across the full width of the stalls. That said, I'm not expecting a huge draw bias on a straight 5f on an artificial surface, but we'd better check, just in case.

And apart from a couple of stalls results looking a little anomalous, there probably isn't a massive amount to be gained from the draw in 13/14 runner 5f sprints on the tapeta here...

Perhaps the rail has helped stall 1 to win so often, which might encourage the connections of Mattice, whose sole A/W run to date saw him go down by just a shirt head over this course and distance. I'm not sure why stall 11 has fared so well though! The key here, of course, is likely to be pace, as those races have clearly those willing to set the early tempo...

...which based on the field's recent efforts probably provides more hope for the likes of Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda, Mattice and Thunder Moor than it does for Burning Cash and Vintage Clarets...

Interestingly, though, despite a real draw bias, the way pace and draw have worked together is interesting if you take a look at the pace/draw heat map...

If we then check back to the top end of the pace chart, we see that Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda, Mattice and Thunder Moor will emerge from stalls 4, 6, 1 and 12.

Summary

You could make a case for half the field to win this and I don't have a particularly strong leaning towards any of them, but from Instant Expert and the pace/draw heatmap I am interested in Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda and Mattice from at least a place perspective. Copper Knight is proven over track and trip and won last time out, so comes here in good nick too.

The bookies are paying four places (Sky go to 5, of course!), so I'm going to suggest Copper Knight, Prince of Zenda and Mattice as E/W possibles. The only book open at 5pm Thursday was Hills and they offered 13/2, 15/2 and 16/1 about this trio.

I'd also expect Vintage Clarets (15/2) and Navello (6/1) to run well, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibility for Ziggy's Missile to continue his good A/W progress and make the frame at 12/1. In fact he might also be a live E/W prospect. I told you that I could make a case for several of these! It could be a cracking race.

Racing Insights, Friday 14/06/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced no qualifiers...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 2.40 Sandown
  • 4.35 Chester
  • 5.40 Fairyhouse
  • 6.25 Market Rasen
  • 7.08 Cork

Once again, nothing better than Class 4 from the UK options, so I'm going to look at one of the UK"s joint highest rated contests of the day, the 3.00 York. It's a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Jumbeau, Katey Kontent and Apeeling are all last time winners, but Alfa Kellenic comes here on a hat-trick. Midream made the frame LTO after two successive wins, whilst Thursday’s Child has also won two from three but Al Simmo and Conservationist are winless in seven and eight races respectively.

Al Simmo is one of just two runners (along with LTO winner Jumbeau) to have raced at this grade on their last outing, as Katey Content, Flaccianello, Conservationist, Thursday’s Child and Lady Pink Rose all step up from Class 3, whilst Star of Lady M is up two classes with both Apeeling and hat-trick seeker Alfa Kellenic up three levels today!

Three runners are dropping down in class, though, as Midream was third of six in a Haydock Listed race (beaten by 3.25 lengths), Born To Rock was seventh of nine in a Lingfield Group 3 race and Queen of Mougins was eighth of fourteen in a Listed race at Newbury.

A handful of these are a bit short on handicap experience with Thursday’s Child and Alfa Kellenic having just their second such run, whilst it’s handicap debut day for the class droppers Midream, Born To Rock and Queen of Mougins as well as LTO winner Apeeling.

As we know, Al Simmo is winless in seven, having not scored for 23 months now and she now returns to action for the first time since last September, putting her at a disadvantage about her dozen rivals who have all had at least one run in the last five weeks, but she has at least won over today’s trip in the past, unlike Jumbeau, Born To Rock, Conservationist and Lady Pink Rose, whilst none of this baker’s dozen have won here at York before.

That said, only Star of Lady M (placed once in 4 runs), Al Simmo (2 places from 3), Jumbeau (placed on sole visit), Lady Pink Rose (unplaced on sole visit) and Thursday’s Child (also unplaced on sole visit) have previously raced on the Knavesmire…

Instant Expert suggests that Star of Lady M and Jumbeau have struggled to win on good ground, as has Al Simmo at Class 2, unlike Flaccianello who is two from three at this level. Al Simmo has, however, racked up some wins over today's trip with Midream also winning half of her efforts over 6f.

To ensure I'm not relying on old data, I'm now going to look at the place stats over last two years...

...where Al Simmo still has good numbers despite her losing run. Jumbeau also scores well as does Midream.

Decent standard sprints over a straight track on good ground really shouldn't have a huge draw bias and that seems to be the case here...

...but that's not to say that some stalls don't fare better than others, of course...

...but I'm not sure there's enough there to call any bias and I wouldn't have thought that the draw here could make or break a horse's chances, whereas their running style might and as you may have expected, it's those willing to take the race on early doors that have the best results...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

If we then turned to look at how this field have approached their recent races, then the likes of Appealing and Al Simmo could well in a great position...

Summary

Al Simmo hasn't won in almost two years and I don't see her winning this either, but she's a regular placer and has the ideal pace profile to go well here, so could very well make the frame (bookies paying 4 places) and would be a possible E/W shot at 10/1*.

Others that I like are all placed shorter* than her, such as Midream and Jumbeau who both currently trade at 13/2*.

*Odds taken from Hills (only book open) at 3pm UK time.

Racing Insights, Friday 31/05/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 4.15 Chepstow
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 7.35 Stratford
  • 8.00 Down Royal
  • 8.05 Stratford

...the best of which is clearly the Epsom race, but only five are set to go to post, so I think I'll take a look at the 7.35 Stratford, an 8-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ Hunters Chase over a left-handed 3m3½f on good to soft ground...

What A Glance won last time out and has had five top 2 finishes in a row, as has Go On Chez who comes here seeking a hat-trick, as does Fairly Famous who has won three of his last five. All eight have won at least one of their last five outings and all bar Law of Gold (Pulled Up) made the frame on their last run.

Most of these ran (at Cheltenham) four weeks ago and Go on Chez also ran earlier this month, but Annamix is the longest rested at 50 days and he's the only one who raced at Class 2 last time around, as the other seven are all up two classes today.

Course and/or distance wins are at a premium for this field, but Law of Gold bucks that trend, having scored over track and trip here when winning this very race three years ago, when offiically rated 12lbs worse than today. It's not a handicap, of course, they'll all carry 12st, but based on their official ratings the 139-rated Annamix is 2lbs better off than Fairly Famous and some 24lbs better than Lift Me Up.

Instant Expert's overview of the field's past endeavours under similar circumstances looks like this...

...and if truth be told, we're not gleaning much from the win side of things here, but we do have more to work with from the place data. From the win stats I have concerns about D'jango at the trip as he seems better suited to 2m7f/3m and his place record at this type of trip is the worst in the field, so I'd probably rule him out right here. Premier Magic has only made the frame once in four attempts in this grade and whilst that's a small sample size, others look better suited to this level than he, so I'm taking him out here too.

This leaves me with just six to consider, from which Annamix and Go On Chez make most appeal from the data above.

With regards to pace, there's not a huge advantage to any particular running style, although those racing in mid-division have an extraordinarily poor return whereas from a place perspective, the onus is clearly to find a front runner...

...so we need to look back at each runner's last few races, which look like this...

...and this is sadly not too helpful either with it looking like being a falsely-run race, but that should play into the hands of the better horses. It looks like I've picked a poor/difficult race here to analyse despite it being a Class 2 affair. In these cases, I tend to refer back to the racecard for some pointers.

Summary

Fairly short piece today due to the lack of viable data, so I'm going back to square one to summarise from the racecard.

Annamix is my pick today, he has won two of his last four and three of six since last Easter. He's the only one not stepping up in class and ran really well to finish third in the Foxhunters at Aintree behind Its On The Line, whose recent form reads 111211. Annamix scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and he's the highest-rated of all the runners, so is technically best off at the weights. He also seems flexible on pace based on his last four runs, so (without total conviction, it must be said), it would be Annamix for me here.

Best of the rest might well be Go On Chez who comes here on a hat-trick, having a 2 from 2 record in Hunter Chases and a form line of 1222211 since being pulled up at Cheltenham in October 2022 and I fancy him to just edge out the other LTO winner Fairly Famous, who is rated at just 2lbs worse than Annamix.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/05/24

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Bath
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.10 Goodwood
  • 7.00 Hereford
  • 7.35 Downpatrick

And seeing as the 'free' list has a Listed race, we'll cover that one. It's the 3.35 Goodwood, an 8-runner (hopefully!), 1m2f flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the lineup...

Sole LTO winner Isle of Jura has won his last three (2 x Listed and 1 x Gr1) as part of an excellent 4 from 5 streak in Bahrain taking his total recent form to six wins and a runner-up finish from eight starts, although he is up two classes from his last UK run if not overall. Royal Rhyme is two from three and three from five, Mujtaba won three starts ago and Passion and Glory has lost three in a row after a run of five successive wins and six wins from seven. Elegancia is two from four, Empress Wu won on debut, but is 0 from 4 since and both Claymore and Sea of Roses are on losing streaks of eight races.

Mujtaba wears a tongue tie today for the first time, the afore-mentioned Isle of Jura is our only class mover and if this was based on handicap marks, Mujtaba would be best off at the weights by 2lbs over Royal Rhyme and 3lbs over Isle of Jura; Elegancia is easily the worst off, rated at just 91. Many of these might not quite be at their best today, as only Sea of Roses, Mujtaba and Claymore have raced on the last three to five weeks or so. Isle of Jura, Elegancia, Empress Wu, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory all return from breaks of 77, 195, 199, 216 and 580 days respectively and I do wonder about Passion and Glory after so long away from the track.

Isle of Jura and Sea of Roses have yet to win at this trip, whilst only Royal Rhyme (course and distance) and Passion and Glory (1m4f) have won at Goodwood before...

On the face of things, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory look the best suited by today's expected race conditions, but it's still a big ask of the latter after 19 months out of action. Clymore and Empress Wu lack wins under these circumstances, but Mujtaba is 3 from 7 on the going and has good place stats at class/distance.

In previous past similar races, stall 1 (Sea of Roses here) has done really well...

...with stalls 5 to 7 (Royal Rhyme, Mujtaba, Claymore) also having good win records and the same stalls have topped the averages from a place perspective across 50+ races that have tended to be dominated by horses who like to be at the head of the pack...

...which based on this field's last few runs is another positive for both Passion and Glory and Royal Rhyme...

...whilst it's Isle of Jura, Royal Rhyme and Mujtaba who seem best off on our pace/draw heatmap.

Summary

One horse's name has popped up in every bit of analysis I've done, so it's no surprise that Royal Rhyme was the 5/4 favourite at 7pm on Thursday evening. Isle of Jura and Mujtaba were the nest two in the market and probably deservedly so, even if not at E/W backable odds for me (they were 4/1 and 11/2), but based on past efforts and taking fitness on trust, there might just be a bit of validity for small 20/1 E/W punts on Claymore and/or Passion and Glory.

That said, despite it being a decent standard of race, it's not one I'll be digging deep for financially!

Racing Insights, Friday 17/05/24

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated no runners for me to consider but thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 York
  • 3.53 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.30 Leopardstown

...from which, I'll take a look at the 4.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on the good to firm Rowley course...

Iron Lion and true Courage both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three, as has Composite. Most of the field have won at least once in their last five but The Whipmaster and Moktasaab are on losing runs of seven and twelve races respectively whilst Swiss Money has been beaten in all seven UK starts.

It also looks like he's up two classes here, but that's from a hurdles run, his last Flat race was at this level, but Iron Lion, Composite (second handicap run today), The Whipmaster (new trainer licence name, NOT new trainer but does wear first-time tongue-tie) and Moktasaab are all up one class for this one.

Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, so should be race fit and Moktasaab should also be OK after an eight-week rest, but top-weight Fox Journey might well need a run, having not raced since October 2023. That said, he did win here at Newmarket (1m2f) this time last year on his combeack from a 190-day absence, so maybe 205 days won't be an issue.

He's the only previous course winner in the field and like Iron Lion, Composite, Vaynor and True courage, he has already won over today's trip elsewhere...

Instant Expert doesn't give us too much assistance on the win front today, but it does suggest that The Whipmaster might be up against it having failed at class and distance half a dozen times. Vaynor prefers good ground or an artificial surface, whilst Iron Lion and Fox Journey are both a fair bit higher than their last winning marks. The corresponding place stats from those races above show that both The Whipmaster and True Courage usually go pretty well on good to firm ground...

...but the doubts about the former's ability at this trip remain.

Similar past races here at HQ suggest that stalls 2 to 5 might be the place to be, although there's not a great deal in it...

...and I suspect that race tactics/positioning might be more important today, as those races above show a distinct advantage for those willing to take it on...

...and this is reinforced by the pace/draw heat map...

We already know the draw, so let's look at how these runners normally approach their races to see if there's a pattern...

To be honest, it doesn't look like there's much pace in the race at all and this could lead to a falsely-run affair, which would play into the hands of those who come here in the best form and those who would normally struggle if there's early pace. Vaynor has led a couple of times recently and he's probably going to end up doing so again today, but he wouldn't normally feature too high on my list of 'possibles'

Summary

In card order, I'd be quite surprised if the first three home didn't come from Fox Journey, Iron Lion, Composite and True Courage, from which I think I'd side with the returning Fox Journey. I expect a tight battle, though and of the other three runners, I suspect Iron Lion will offer least value.

I'd no odds available at 3.20pm on Thursday, but I'd hope for 3/1 or bigger about Fox Journey, but I doubt I'll get viable E/W odds about any of the other three.