Tag Archive for: Hamilton Racecourse

Tix Picks, Monday 23/09/24

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Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Sedgefield & Wolverhampton...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at Wolverhampton, but it's a dreadful looking card, so we're heading North to Hamilton Park for six races on good to soft ground, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.48 Hamilton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Rebecca's Girl is the clear 'form' horse here, finishing 2123 in her last four, but Temper Trap was a runner-up last time out, Absolute Dream has a win and a runner-up finish from his last five starts and has won both his last two races here at Hamilton whilst Retirement Beckons is a 4-time course and distance winner.

Instant Expert also says Rebecca's Girl is the one to beat...

...and although there's not a great deal of pace in the field, she's one of the more likely prominent runners on a track that favours leaders, as is Temper Trap...

So, I'll be taking Rebecca's Girl & Temper trap, of course, but also adding CD specialist Retirement Beckons, just in case!

Leg 2 : 2.23 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 6f...

It'll probably pay to focus on the bottom half of the card here (all fillies), even if Misty Sky, Thecla and Koulikoro all step up in class after being in the frame last time out. Bottom weight Koulikoro was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in an 11-runner race after the winner had nicked an early lead, but our filly stayed on well and there should be more to come. She's a half-sister to a few winners and she'd be my pick here.

Next best would be Thecla, whose runner-up finish on her second/last outing earlier this month was much better than her debut and further progression should/could see her get even closer to breaking her duck today, whilst Misty Sky is another who seems to be improving. She refused to race on 'debut' at Pontefract in June, but was then 5th of 8 (4.5 lengths defeat) when she finally did run at Chester, but was 3rd of 8, beaten by just over a length and a half at Chepstow last time out, so so she still have more to show.

I'll take all three here.

Leg 3 : 2.58 Hamilton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f...

The Dragon King had won two on the bounce before a Class 2 defeat (6th of 16, 4L down) at Goodwood last time out and is of obvious interest back down two classes and back to his favoured 5f trip. Invincible Annice was slow away over 5f at Chester on her last run effectively losing the race before it started for her, but she had won over course and distance here one her previous run, whilst Music History won three starts ago and drops three classes here after only losing by 2.5 lengths in a Listed race at Newbury and it's worth noting that jockey Callum Rodriguez is flying right now, especially on Edward Bethell's horses...

Off very limited data, of course, Instant Expert also points to The Dragon King & Invincible Annice...

...but Call Me Harswell has a good to soft ground win, has won twice over today's trip and looks like he might try to nick this from the front...

The Dragon King & Invincible Annice are my obvious focus here, but Call Me Harswell edges Music History for third for me, due to the pace aspect and she ran pretty well in defeat at Thirsk last time out.

Leg 4 : 3.33 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4f...

A really open-looking contest here with cases to made for all of them potentially. Papagei comes here seeking a hat-trick, gets a 7lbs weight allowance anad has won three of his last six (plus finishing third twice). Tafsir has also won won three of six with a third place finish in there too. She's one of three runners trained by Jim Goldie in this race, but Paul Mulrennan rides Tafsir with the other two (Soowaih & Spanish Hustle) being ridden by claimers, suggesting Tafsir is the yard's first pick.

The consistent Minstrel Knight might not win often enough, but is 333212 in his last six, represents the Bethell/Rodriguez combo from the previous race and gets the same 7lbs allowance as Papagei, effectively making him bottom weight here.

Tafsir's credentials are further enhanced by Instant Expert with Spectacular Style & Spanish Hustle also making their own claims here

...and this pair are likely to be up with the pace early on...

I'm definitely taking Papagei and Tafsir, but need a safety net from Spectacular Style, Spanish Hustle or Minstrel Knight and I think that with Roger Varian having such a great record here at Hamilton...

...Spectacular Style will be the one I choose.

Leg 5 : 4.08 Hamilton, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Keldeo won last time out and has made the frame in five of her last eight starts, winning twice. Lady Celia is a course and distance winner who has won two of her last five, finishing fourth in the other three, but all in big-fields and not beaten by far. Strong Johnson has made the frame in three of his last four and drops in class here, whilst bottom-weight Stash The Cash produced his best run to date when beaten by a neck as a runner-up last time out.

There's no obvious front-runner here, but based on their recent efforts, Keldeo, Strong Johnson and Stash The Cash might be the ones to take it on...

I'm happy to pick from the four horses I've named here and I'm firm on the two females in the race, Keldeo & Lady Celia, so will need to choose between Strong Johnson & Stash The Cash if I'm taking a third pick and based on class movements after defeats, I'm taking class-dropper Strong Johnson rather than class-riser Stash The Cash.

Leg 6 : 4.43 Hamilton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo handicap over 6f...

Game Breaker won last time out, getting home by a neck over course and distance on heavy ground almost three weeks ago, whilst fast-finishing Showhound produced his best run for over a year at Chester (3rd of 11, half a length down) in first-time cheekpieces which are retained here. Wichahpi has finished 1231 in her last four efforts on Turf whilst Gundogan (another from the Bethell/Rodriguez combo mentioned earlier) has a win and four runner-up finishes from his last seven races.

These are the four that I'd probably want to focus on here and of these, Wichahpi looks like the one who might try to dictate the way the race is run...

...whilst from a stats perspective, Game Breaker leads the way...

And if we're still in the mix after five races, I want to take a safety-first approach and will take all four runners mentioned.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 5 & 7

Leg 2: horses 4, 5 & 6

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 5

Leg 4: horses 2, 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 2 & 3

Leg 6: horses 2, 3, 4 & 7

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

PS A heads up, I'm currently on a small island off the coast of Bali and on Wednesday, I need to get over to the ferry port, sail back to Bali and then get to my next hotel on the main island, so I won't be doing a piece for Wednesday's racing, sorry!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/08/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with two runners to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Hamilton
  • 7.00 Hamilton

...so it makes sense to me for us to look at Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist and the 7.00 Hamilton in general. It's an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on soft ground...

FORM : Giselles Defence won last time out and has won 2 of his last three and has 3 wins and 2 places from his last seven. Lunario comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 3 places from his last six. Our featured runner Good Morning Alex has won has last three and is 4 from 5 and is 6 from his last 8.

Stand Strong is a 3-race maiden despite making the frame in each of his races, whilst Theoryofeverything is the only other runner without a win in his last five outings, having been beaten in all nine outings since scoring on debut at Doncaster just over 14 months ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers today, as only the afore-mentioned Theoryofeverything raced at Class 3 last time out. Six runners (Arctic Mountain, Indemnity, Tele Red, Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) step up from Class 4, whilst Stand Strong, Giselles Defence & Lunario all step up from Class 5. Only Paddy the Squire ran at a higher level last time out, finishing as a Class 2 runner-up.

AGE/WEIGHT : the bottom three on the card (Bubbles Wonky, Good Morning Alex & Classy Boy) are all aged 3 and receive an 8lb allowance for that.

WHAT'S NEW : Paddy The Squire runs for the first time since a wind op and Stand Strong makes a handicap debut and yard debut today on his first run since being gelded.

LAST SEEN : Most of the field have raced in the last 10 to 33 days, but Arctic Mountain (60d) & Good Morning Alex (68d) have had a couple of months rest, whilst it's almost a year (354 days to be precise) since Paddy the Squire was last in action and the thick end of 22 months since Stand Strong lined up.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Seven runners have raced here a total of nine times with Good Morning Alex winning both starts here and Lunario is 1 from 1. As for the 1m1f trip, four runners have a combined 1 win from 5 attempts with Good Morning Alex the sole winner, as his two wins here were at 1m½f and then over this course and distance.

Instant Expert shows those course/distance wins I mentioned above and it's good to see that most of those who have tackled soft ground have managed to make the frame with five of them going on to win. Theoryofeverything looks vulnerable at Class 3 and Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence are all rated at least 7lbs higher than their last win...

Whilst some of these stood out on form, the field looks quite open based on those graphics above, so let's look and see if the draw might be a factor today...

It doesn't seem to have a huge draw bias, runners in stall 1 have struggled, as have those drawn 10 or higher, but the majority of stalls have similar results to each other and it's probably going to be the pace that is the deciding factor here, as horses willing to crack on with things have had the most success...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could be more good news for Good Morning Alex...

...and they might well go off at a fair old lick today with no real hold-up types in the race. A 4-race pace average of 2.25 is rarely the lowest score in a race of this many runners and if I was relying on that pace chart above and discounting the runners in stalls 1, 10 & 11 based on the draw stats, I'd be looking at...

...from pace/draw, but I'd be very wary about Stand Strong after such a long absence.

Summary

From pace/draw, I'd consider Good Morning Alex, Arctic Mountain, Lunario and Bubbles Wonky, whilst on form, it would be Giselles Defence, Lunario and our featured runner Good Morning Alex from The Shortlist.

So I'm having Good Morning Alex and Lunario as two of my three for the frame. Bubbles Wonky hasn't ran well in his last three outings, so I'll overlook him, which leaves me with a choice between Arctic Mountain and Giselles Defence as my third runner and whilst there's not much between them, I suspect we'll have more chance of getting an E/W bet out of Giselles Defence, so that where I'll go.

The market looked like this at 4.45pm Monday...

...which means that Lunario is also in E/W territory for me.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/07/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated just the one runner for me to consider...

Thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.50 Nottingham
  • 4.45 Newbury
  • 5.07 Down Royal
  • 6.25 Newmarket
  • 8.10 Newmarket

...but the H4C race is rated higher than any of the list above, so I'm going to look at Jordan Electrics and the 6.35 Hamilton, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where my initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between the afore-mentioned Jordan Electrics from the H4C report and bottom-weight Tiriac.

Jordan Electrics actually comes here seeking a hat-trick and has three wins and a runner-up (beaten by a neck) finish from his last four outings and has five wins from his last seven. Top-weight Spangled Mac is the only other LTO winner in the field, but he has been away from the track for over eight months and might well be in need of a run before getting back to his best.

Aside from these two LTO winners, only Manila Scouse's runner-up (bt by 1.25L) effort at Thirsk a fortnight ago is the only place finish any of the field achieved on their last run and Rocket Rodney, Silky Wilkie, First Folio and Londoner are all winless in at least seven (10, 16, 13 & 12 to be precise!) runs.

First Folio's chances of a first win in 14 races surely won't be helped by a step up in class, as do the fast-finishing returnee Spangled Mac and Manila Scouse, whilst my two 'most likelys', Jordan Electrics & Tiriac, are both up two classes today.

Spangled Mac has a 5lb claimer on board to ease the burden of being top-weight, whilst it's first-time blinkers for Magical Spirit and a hood for Londoner.

Jordan Electrics has five wins and four further places from fourteen efforts over course and distance, hence his place on the H4C report, but Manila Scouse has also won over track and trip as recently as early June, three starts ago. Rocket Rodney and Londoner are the only two without a win over today's trip and in addition to our two course and distance winners, Silky Wilkie has also won here, scoring over 5f on her sole previous visit to the track two years and four days ago, which therefore doesn't quite make it onto the two-year record on Instant Expert...

The sharper eyed amongst you will notice that I've also included Class 3 results, because none of them have won in this grade on the Flat over the last couple of years! There's no shock to find that Jordan Electrics is the eyecatcher and my main areas of concern are for First Folio, Raatea and Manila Scouse at the trip. Perhaps they've been unlucky not to win and have made the frame in gallant defeats?

Well, there's definitely some form of redemption for Manila Scouse, whose place stats suggest that he might well be an E/W contender here, but First Folio and Raatea still look vulnerable over the trip.

As you'd probably expect by now, a straight six furlongs on good ground shouldn't really be too affected by the draw, but front-running is to be rewarded...

...which, surprise surprise, is yet more good news for Jordan Electrics...

...but another blow to Raatea's chances.

Summary

You'll be surprised to hear/read that I'm with Jordan Electrics for this one. The above sets of data make it hard to oppose this in-form track and trip specialist, even if he is up in weight and class. We're not getting rich off this 3/1 fav**, but he should be the winner. As for a second option, Manila Scouse looks good as a possible E/W bet, especially if we can get more than the 13/2** currently being offered.

**odds are from Hills, only book open at 4.25pm Thursday.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/06/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 5.10 Haydock
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 6.45 Chelmsford
  • 8.00 Leopardstown

Now, as most of you know, I don't really do Irish racing and that leaves me with a pair of uninspiring Class 5 UK races above, so I'm swerving those to look at whatever the highest-rated race might be in the UK instead.

And that appears to be the 3.25 Hamilton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out, although Kelpie Grey was a runner-up after three straight wins and four wins from five.

This initially looks a pretty open contest, yet aside from the horses named above only Persuasion made the frame last time out, but only Monsieur Kodi and Manila Scouse are winless in seven or more (7 & 10 respectively).

Only five of these (Roman Drago, Paws for Thought, Dare to Hope, Monsieur Kodi & Manila Scouse) actually raced at Class 2 on their last outing, as Glenfinnan, Raatea, Persuasion and Almarada Prince all step up from Class 3 whilst Kelpie Grey and Illusionist were both last seen at Class 4.

Paws for Thought, Illusionist and Manila will have their usual respective cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue tie in place today and Paws For Thought's jockey claims 7lbs whilst Almarada Prince will be ridden by a 5lb claimer in addition to him receiving an 8lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old. The whole field have raced in the last 12 to 39 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here today.

Persuasion , Kelpie Grey and Manila Scouse have yet to win over this trip, whilst Paws for Thought and Illusionist have scored here over course and distance. Almarada Prince has also won here at Hamilton, albeit over 5f as the middle win in a hat-trick last Autumn.

When it comes to looking at out feature of the day, Instant Expert, I've also included the stats from Class 3, as none of this field has particularly shone in this grade...

...so I wouldn't necessarily use Class 2 form as my immediate way of weeding runners out! From the above, the lightweight Almarada Prince and Glenfinnan are the obvious eyecatchers with Paws for Thought and Roman Dragon also hitting two blocks of green, although the latter is now 8lbs above his last winning mark and might well be in the assessor's grip.

I think we should look at the place form too, in case any of these have been unlucky not to win, especially at Class 2...

Sadly, that's not the case today, the while Class 2 form is pretty abject, so I think we should treat this as a Class 3 contest after all! Persuasion is a regular placer at that level and Almarada Prince continues to tick boxes albeit off a very small sample size, whereas Dare to Hope and Monsieur Kodi have a combined 14 places from 26 starts over 6f, which is excellent. Illusionist looks the weak link right now, though.

As you'd expect over a straight 6f on good ground, the draw stats are fairly inconclusive, but this the data we have...

I'm a great believer in the value of assessing the draw in shorter distance races, but I am cautious about over-reliance in these straight sprints, where aside from stall 1 having the rail to guide the horse and keep it straight, there shouldn't really be an advantage and it's invariably race tactics aka pace that matter more. Thankfully we have that data too! Here's how those races were won...

...unsurprisingly favouring front-runners as often tends to be case in sprints, which could be really good news for Kelpie Grey, if this field's last four races are anything to go by...

Summary

The names that crop up most during my analysis are (in card order) top weights Roman Dragon and Glenfinnan along with the two runners to be ridden by claimers, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince.

If I was to use this quartet as my shortlist, then I'd be inclined to suggest that the in-form Glenfinnan would be the most likely to win and that's probably why Hills have him as the early (4.10pm Wednesday) favourite at 4/1, which is probably where I thought he'd be priced.

The other three (Roman Dragon, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince) are all more than capable of making the frame, as are no doubt three or four others, but at respective odds of 13/2, 8/1 and 16/1, there might be some E/W joy to be had!

Please Note : I'm off to Cyprus for a fortnight tomorrow (Thursday), so there'll be no column for Friday's racing. It's a work trip (looking at some hotels), so I'll still be writing the daily column when possible, although the timings of publication may well vary from day to day.

Racing Insights, Friday 25/08/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers

,,,which are, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.40 Newmarket
  • 3.00 York
  • 5.45 Hamilton
  • 6.20 Hamilton
  • 7.15 Goodwood
  • 8.05 Hamilton

The York race above is a Group 2 sprint worth over £150k, but I'm not comfortable in 2yo races, so I'm going to head North of the border for a competitive-looking fillies' handicap in the 5.45 Hamilton from the free list. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ affair over a right-handed 1m1f on good to soft ground, which will be softer in places and more showers are forecast for this field...

Dandy's Angel looks like the form horse here, having won last time out and having landed three of her last four. She has actually won four of her last seven since finishing third at Carlisle on the 2nd June, despite only winning two of her previous 44 outings. Elsewhere, only Alethiometer and Do I Dream have a win in their last six efforts, although the 3yr old Streetzoffilly has only raced three times.

She makes her handicap debut here and like fellow 3 yr olds Centre Court and Anjo Bonita, she gets a useful 7lbs weight for age allowance. She's also up a level from Class 5 here, but she's not alone, as the bottom four on the card (Anjo Bonita, Do I Dream and Dandy's Angel being the others) all step up one class.

As well as getting the weight allowance and stepping up in class, this will only be Anjo Bonita's second run in a handicap and like all bar Do I Dream, she was last seen less than three weeks ago. Mind you, Do I Dream's 45-day layoff shouldn't cause any fitness issues. Dandy's Angel is turned back out quickest, just nine days after a nice win at Beverley, which 'earned' her a 5lb weight rise, but she is the only previous distance winner in a field with no previous course wins.

That said, Instant Expert tells me that only four of them have raced here before and only two of them have visited more than once. Instant Expert also says the field have largely toiled under the forecasted conditions...

...which is a pretty underwhelming set of results. Golden Melody and in-form Dandy's Angel have particularly poor results on this going, whilst the former is 0/20 at Class 4 and the latter is 1/8 at the trip. Strangely, though, this pair were two that I initially thought might do well, perhaps place form will show them in a better light...

...which is a much better picture for most of this field. Centre Court looks weak, whilst as you'd expect from a three-race maiden, Streetzoffilly has little data to work with. If truth be told about Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel, the former prefers a slightly shorter trip and the latter is better at 1m2f, but along with Anjo Bonita and Do I Dream, they make up the four I'd be most interested in from Instant Expert.

There doesn't seem to have been too much of a draw bias in past similar races, although those drawn highest have made the frame most often and have the best PRB3 scores...

...which might give a (very) slight advantage to Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream who will emerge from boxes 6 and 7 respectively. And if we re-consider those same races above from a pace perspective, the key has been to be able to track the leader(s) with a view to pouncing late on...

...where prominent runners have provided 55.3% of the winners from just 34.8% of the runners. As for placers, hold-up horses have really struggled here, which might cause problems for Golden Melody, Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream if they approach this way in the same manner as their last few runs...

...but Anjo Bonita might well find the tempo of the race to her liking.

Summary

I had thought that Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel would be the two to beat here, despite having poor win records on Instant Expert and having seemingly poor pace profiles for this race, but I can't back either if I want to be true to the process that generally serves me well. Instead, the one I want to back, despite not being an obvious winner, is Anjo Bonita at 4/1. It's not a generous price, if truth be told. I was hoping for a little more, but she might drift a little (fingers crossed).

She may well be a 10-race maiden, but she has made the frame in eight starts, including five of the six under today's jockey Billy Garrity. She's 2lbs lower than her handicap debut and gets a weight for age allowance here and is sure to be on the premises when the race is won, hopefully in her favour.

Racing Insight, Thursday 20/07/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 5.15 Leopardstown
  • 6.35 Killarney
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 8.40 Epsom

And whilst it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the free list, I think the 4.55 Hamilton race offers us the most in terms of Instant Expert from that list of races. It's an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on good to soft ground. The ground is softer in places and thunderstorms are expected, so it might well be heading towards soft by the off..

It's not a good race, but it will have a winner, so whilst I'd never advise spending too long on a race like this, it doesn't mean we shouldn't look at all. Unsurprisingly, none of these won last time out, but both Can Can Girl and Spanish Hustle made the frame and the latter did win his penultimate race. Lochnaver also won two starts ago and Blazer Two's win three races back is the only other win on display in the recent form lines of the entire field.

The class move information is a little misleading today, as The Navigator's run LTO at Class 2 was over hurdles, but he is still two classes lower than his last Flat run in April. Hezmie is, however, down three classes from finishing last of eight at Pontefract nine days after finishing last of eight at Doncaster at Class 5, whilst Lochnaver drops back a class after defeat at Hamilton and having finished second and then first in her last two at this level, she'll feel more at home in this company.

Blazer Two makes a yard debut here after joining Lucinda Russell's small but relatively successful string of Flat runners (96% of her runners over the last ten years have been in National Hunt contests, but she's 13 from 69 on the Flat since the start of last season including 12 from 51 at Class 5/6).

The Navigator has won over this trip at Carlisle and Ghostly has won here over 1m4f, whilst Spanish Hustle and Lochnaver are both former course and distance winners. There should be any rustiness to shake off here, as The Navigator is the longest rested and he was seen in action less than eight weeks ago; Can Can Girl and Hezmie have already had a run this month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, adds some more meat to the bones with news of three good to soft winners and a couple of soft ground victors, whilst all bar Hezmie have at least one Class 6 victory to their names. She hasn't actually raced this low, but has won at Class 5, albeit on the A/W, whilst The Navigator and Can Can Girl have both won on turf at Class 5. Smart Lass actually won at Class 4 in February 2022, which would be great had she not failed to win any of 13 races since!

That run of defeats is why Smart Lass is now rated 7lbs below her last win, so she could be dangerously weighted here considering her liking for soft ground. Spanish Hustle's best form has come on good to firm ground, so he might struggle here again, whilst Lochnaver's trio of wins at this venue is interesting. The place data doesn't really help many of these on the going front...

...and The Navigator is probably the pick of the bunch in a race where I don't expect the draw to have too much effect, based on previous contests...

...but if we can identify ourselves a front-runner, that might help, because those races above have unfolded like this...

We log how all horses run in the UK to enable us to make a reasoned estimate as to how they might run again and here's how they've gone in their last four outings...

...suggesting the early pace will come from the three at the top of that list. Of that trio, I'm not too keen on Ghostly right now, even at 6lbs below his last winning mark. He has been out of sorts for some while and didn't run well here last month, but I do like Lochnaver and Blazer Two from the front.

Summary

Lochnaver and Blazer Two head the pace chart and both are interesting here. Lochnaver has been in good form of late and loves it here at Hamilton, whilst Blazer Two has moved to Lucinda Russell's  yard recently. She does really well with her small string of low-grade flat runners and I'm intrigued at how quickly she's sending this one back out. he's only a pound higher than his last win and has never been ridden by a jockey as good as Joe Fanning before. Joe, of course, is a master at assessing pace.

To this pair, I'm adding the hold-up type, The Navigator. He's down in class, scored well on Instant Expert and hold-up horses have done pretty well here under similar conditions and I think he could be involved late on in this one.

And that's my three from eight. To be honest, they're all much of a muchness and the early market would appear to agree...

I don't really have an overwhelming urge to stick my neck out for any of them, but if pushed, Blazer Two might be the one. No E/W interest from me in this contest, though, so watch Smart Lass now go and put a shift in!

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/07/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...none of which really grab my attention. Thankfully, as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.17 Hamilton
  • 3.27 Brighton
  • 3.45 Tipperary
  • 7.20 Roscommon
  • 9.00 Ffos Las

...from which, despite the small field, the 3.17 Hamilton looks the best. It's a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m½f on good to soft ground...

The early (just after 2pm) opening show suggests that it could be a tight contest, with only Barley considered to be here to make up the numbers...

...and that might partially be because he's up in class here after three fairly poor efforts at Class 3. He is eased a pound, but you have to worry about his chances here. Top weight Austrian Theory is also up in class, despite only finishing 7th of 8 last time out, although he did win at this class/trip two starts ago.

Bottom weight Maysong is the sole LTO winner, having beaten the re-opposing pair Eilean Dubh (3rd) and Repertoire by 0.5 and 4 lengths respectively, but this pair are 9lbs and 12lbs better off here today, as Maysong isn't riden by his 7lb claimer. Repertoire did win over a mile at Class 4 three starts ago, but has toiled in this grade since.

Both EileanDubh and Barley wear first-time tongue ties, whilst it's a cheekpiece debut for Fantastic Fox, who along with Austrian Theory and Eilean Dubh are our three course and distance winners. The other three have yet to win here at Hamilton but have all scored over a similar trip.

All six have raced in the last 11 to 32 days, so no rustiness expected, nor are any thrown back in too quickly and we've no three year olds to muddy the waters with their weight allowances!

Further stats are available via Instant Expert, which says that only three of these have raced on good to soft ground before with just one successful, And we also find that Fantastic Fox's turf record at Class 2 really isn't very good...

The entire field are racing off marks 2 to 4lbs higher than their last winning marks, so there's little in it there. The Fox's 0/11 at Class 2 is a concern, as is Repertoire's 0 from 9. The other issue is Maysong failing to win any of seven attempts on good to soft ground, but he has managed to make the frame a few times...

...and whilst his win stats make me wary of backing him, his place data is probably the best on show, so a possible placer here? Mind you, unless something tells me to get on Barley, there'll be no E/W bet today, as 5/1 isn't long enough for me. Austrian Theory won this race last year but that was on good to firm, where he is 3 from 8 as opposed to his 0 from 11 elsewhere. Repertoire is the clear weak link on Instant Expert.

I don't expect any of these to be handed an advantage by the draw, as previous past contests here have gone like this...

...whilst the pace stats for those same races have really favoured those keen to get on with things...

...hold-up horses tend to struggle here from win a win and a place perspective and that's yet more bad news for Repertoire, based on his last four outings...

Summary

Repertoire was poor on Instant Expert and might well get left behind, based on his pace profile, so he's out. Maysong beat Eilean Dubh by half a length last time out and scored well on IE, but he's 9lbs worse off here and is another who might get outpaced, so he's gone too.

Austrian Theory won this last year and will probably attempt to win from the front here, but his record on anything slower than good to firm is abject and he has a tendency to run out of steam on these slower surfaces. All of which leaves us with three. Barley is unfancied by the early market and he's up in class after a series of poor runs in a lower grade. Surely he's not suddenly winning here?

So, almost by default, I've got Eilean Dubh and Fantastic Fox left to deal with and the latter simply isn't a Class 2 runner based on his past efforts, so I have to agree with the bookies by saying Eilean Dubh is the one to beat. Don't get me wrong, he's no standout here, but he's arguably the "least bad". A 9lb pull for a half length defeat is really beneficial and if he tracks the leader(s) as expected, he should win. 5/2 is probably about the right price, but I won't be lumping on in what looks a fairly mediocre race for a Class 2.

Next best might well be Maysong. Yeah, he's that 9lbs worse off here, but with an LTO win and two wins, two places from his last six, he might be the one for your forecast/exacta.