Posts

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.00 Southwell : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3 (In rear, pushed along over 2f out, some late headway, beaten by 6 lengths and never nearer) Absolutely dreadful tactics with a horse known for prominent/front running.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Soft ground worth £6,631 to the winner...

Why?...

Running late due to some tech issues at home overnight, so I'll keep this as brief as I can, starting, as ever, with the racecard, which pretty much is my way in to this race....

So, trainer Julie Camacho's only runner of the day is this 3 yr old filly who won handsomely by 5.5 lengths under today's jockey over a mile at Haydock 24 days ago. The sample sizes aren't the best, but trainer & jockey seem to fare well together and Julie has a decent enough record here at Hamilton to warrant a second look, whilst the speed ratings are gently persuasive too.

A closer inspection of Julie's 5 year record here at Hamilton shows that her runners are actually 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 23.09pts (+144.3% ROI at betfair SP) over the last four (inc this one) seasons with the following of relevance/note today...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 24.09pts (+160.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/10 (70%) for 29.09pts (+290.9%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 30.09pts (+334.3%) with handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.36pts (+192%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.32pts (+190.3%) in races worth £4k to £8k
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.23pts (+203.9%) from those placed LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 9.4pts (+235%) stepping up a class
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 7.31pts (+182.2%) with female runners...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.55 Pontefract : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Towards rear, headway from over 2f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting from the racecard...

...we see a 4 yr old filly who won last time out (over class, course and distance on good to soft under today's jockey) 20 days ago. She has top billing on our speed ratings and hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C5), as does her jockey, Paul Mulrennan (C1 C5), so let's look at all three, starting with...

...the horse, a 4 yr old filly who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts at odds shorter than 5/1, she's 2 from 2 at this trip and also 2 from 2 in fields bigger than 12 runners.

Next, our jockey, Paul Mulrennan who is 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 40pts (+41.6% ROI) here at Hamilton since the start of the 2017 season and has ridden 7 winners from 46 (15.2% SR) for 15.6pts (+33.8% ROI) this year alone for...

...today's trainer, Michael Dods who has a good record here with runners to deemed to "have a chance". Basically, since the start of 2015, his horses sent off at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 (an odds range where most of my personal betting takes place) at Hamilton are 14 from 56 (25% SR) for 29.3pts (+52.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 13/39 (33.3%) for 38.64pts (+99.1%) during July to September
  • 12/40 (30%) for 38pts (+95.1%) over 6f to 1m4f
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 22.6pts (+56.6%) in handicaps
  • 9/20 (45%) for 33.1pts (+165.5%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 8/25 (32%) for 28.3pts (+113.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 5.7pts (+29.9%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16pts (+100%) on Good to Soft
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.3pts (+236.4%) with 4 yr olds...

...whilst handicappers running during July to September over 6f-1m4f at 11-20 dslr are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 22.8pts (+253.3% ROI), including Antico Lady's run/win last time out.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 5.40am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead again over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is running here off a mark 3lbs lower than his last winning effort and races 2lb lower than he would be next week, having run really well in defeat LTO when second (beaten by half a length) at Ayr with the re-opposing Lydiate Lady and Northern Society more than three lengths further behind just ten days ago.

The fact he runs again so quickly after that good run is what flagged him up to me last night, as trainer Michael Mullineaux's Flat handicappers turned back out less than three weeks after a top 3 finish LTO are 13 from 66 (19.7% SR) for 80.65pts (+122.2% ROI) since the start of the 2015 campaign and these include of relevance today...

  • 13/59 (22%) for 87.65pts (+148.6%) during June to September
  • 10/48 (20.8%) for 74.3pts (+154.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 46.74pts (+111.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 37.18pts (+103.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/32 (21.9%) for 54.81pts (+171.3%) in 6-9 runner contests
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 48.99pts (+222.7%) on good ground
  • and 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 20.58pts (+228.7%) for today's runner, Somewhere Secret...

...whilst Class 6 runners competing for less than £4k during June-September at the same class as LTO are 6 from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.62pts (+107% ROI), including 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 5.92pts (+65.8%) since the start of last season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Thursday with some 11/4 non-BOG until later in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!