Tag Archive for: Hamilton Racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 25/08/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers

,,,which are, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.40 Newmarket
  • 3.00 York
  • 5.45 Hamilton
  • 6.20 Hamilton
  • 7.15 Goodwood
  • 8.05 Hamilton

The York race above is a Group 2 sprint worth over £150k, but I'm not comfortable in 2yo races, so I'm going to head North of the border for a competitive-looking fillies' handicap in the 5.45 Hamilton from the free list. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ affair over a right-handed 1m1f on good to soft ground, which will be softer in places and more showers are forecast for this field...

Dandy's Angel looks like the form horse here, having won last time out and having landed three of her last four. She has actually won four of her last seven since finishing third at Carlisle on the 2nd June, despite only winning two of her previous 44 outings. Elsewhere, only Alethiometer and Do I Dream have a win in their last six efforts, although the 3yr old Streetzoffilly has only raced three times.

She makes her handicap debut here and like fellow 3 yr olds Centre Court and Anjo Bonita, she gets a useful 7lbs weight for age allowance. She's also up a level from Class 5 here, but she's not alone, as the bottom four on the card (Anjo Bonita, Do I Dream and Dandy's Angel being the others) all step up one class.

As well as getting the weight allowance and stepping up in class, this will only be Anjo Bonita's second run in a handicap and like all bar Do I Dream, she was last seen less than three weeks ago. Mind you, Do I Dream's 45-day layoff shouldn't cause any fitness issues. Dandy's Angel is turned back out quickest, just nine days after a nice win at Beverley, which 'earned' her a 5lb weight rise, but she is the only previous distance winner in a field with no previous course wins.

That said, Instant Expert tells me that only four of them have raced here before and only two of them have visited more than once. Instant Expert also says the field have largely toiled under the forecasted conditions...

...which is a pretty underwhelming set of results. Golden Melody and in-form Dandy's Angel have particularly poor results on this going, whilst the former is 0/20 at Class 4 and the latter is 1/8 at the trip. Strangely, though, this pair were two that I initially thought might do well, perhaps place form will show them in a better light...

...which is a much better picture for most of this field. Centre Court looks weak, whilst as you'd expect from a three-race maiden, Streetzoffilly has little data to work with. If truth be told about Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel, the former prefers a slightly shorter trip and the latter is better at 1m2f, but along with Anjo Bonita and Do I Dream, they make up the four I'd be most interested in from Instant Expert.

There doesn't seem to have been too much of a draw bias in past similar races, although those drawn highest have made the frame most often and have the best PRB3 scores...

...which might give a (very) slight advantage to Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream who will emerge from boxes 6 and 7 respectively. And if we re-consider those same races above from a pace perspective, the key has been to be able to track the leader(s) with a view to pouncing late on...

...where prominent runners have provided 55.3% of the winners from just 34.8% of the runners. As for placers, hold-up horses have really struggled here, which might cause problems for Golden Melody, Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream if they approach this way in the same manner as their last few runs...

...but Anjo Bonita might well find the tempo of the race to her liking.

Summary

I had thought that Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel would be the two to beat here, despite having poor win records on Instant Expert and having seemingly poor pace profiles for this race, but I can't back either if I want to be true to the process that generally serves me well. Instead, the one I want to back, despite not being an obvious winner, is Anjo Bonita at 4/1. It's not a generous price, if truth be told. I was hoping for a little more, but she might drift a little (fingers crossed).

She may well be a 10-race maiden, but she has made the frame in eight starts, including five of the six under today's jockey Billy Garrity. She's 2lbs lower than her handicap debut and gets a weight for age allowance here and is sure to be on the premises when the race is won, hopefully in her favour.

Racing Insight, Thursday 20/07/23

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Chepstow
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 5.15 Leopardstown
  • 6.35 Killarney
  • 7.00 Epsom
  • 8.40 Epsom

And whilst it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the free list, I think the 4.55 Hamilton race offers us the most in terms of Instant Expert from that list of races. It's an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on good to soft ground. The ground is softer in places and thunderstorms are expected, so it might well be heading towards soft by the off..

It's not a good race, but it will have a winner, so whilst I'd never advise spending too long on a race like this, it doesn't mean we shouldn't look at all. Unsurprisingly, none of these won last time out, but both Can Can Girl and Spanish Hustle made the frame and the latter did win his penultimate race. Lochnaver also won two starts ago and Blazer Two's win three races back is the only other win on display in the recent form lines of the entire field.

The class move information is a little misleading today, as The Navigator's run LTO at Class 2 was over hurdles, but he is still two classes lower than his last Flat run in April. Hezmie is, however, down three classes from finishing last of eight at Pontefract nine days after finishing last of eight at Doncaster at Class 5, whilst Lochnaver drops back a class after defeat at Hamilton and having finished second and then first in her last two at this level, she'll feel more at home in this company.

Blazer Two makes a yard debut here after joining Lucinda Russell's small but relatively successful string of Flat runners (96% of her runners over the last ten years have been in National Hunt contests, but she's 13 from 69 on the Flat since the start of last season including 12 from 51 at Class 5/6).

The Navigator has won over this trip at Carlisle and Ghostly has won here over 1m4f, whilst Spanish Hustle and Lochnaver are both former course and distance winners. There should be any rustiness to shake off here, as The Navigator is the longest rested and he was seen in action less than eight weeks ago; Can Can Girl and Hezmie have already had a run this month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, adds some more meat to the bones with news of three good to soft winners and a couple of soft ground victors, whilst all bar Hezmie have at least one Class 6 victory to their names. She hasn't actually raced this low, but has won at Class 5, albeit on the A/W, whilst The Navigator and Can Can Girl have both won on turf at Class 5. Smart Lass actually won at Class 4 in February 2022, which would be great had she not failed to win any of 13 races since!

That run of defeats is why Smart Lass is now rated 7lbs below her last win, so she could be dangerously weighted here considering her liking for soft ground. Spanish Hustle's best form has come on good to firm ground, so he might struggle here again, whilst Lochnaver's trio of wins at this venue is interesting. The place data doesn't really help many of these on the going front...

...and The Navigator is probably the pick of the bunch in a race where I don't expect the draw to have too much effect, based on previous contests...

...but if we can identify ourselves a front-runner, that might help, because those races above have unfolded like this...

We log how all horses run in the UK to enable us to make a reasoned estimate as to how they might run again and here's how they've gone in their last four outings...

...suggesting the early pace will come from the three at the top of that list. Of that trio, I'm not too keen on Ghostly right now, even at 6lbs below his last winning mark. He has been out of sorts for some while and didn't run well here last month, but I do like Lochnaver and Blazer Two from the front.

Summary

Lochnaver and Blazer Two head the pace chart and both are interesting here. Lochnaver has been in good form of late and loves it here at Hamilton, whilst Blazer Two has moved to Lucinda Russell's  yard recently. She does really well with her small string of low-grade flat runners and I'm intrigued at how quickly she's sending this one back out. he's only a pound higher than his last win and has never been ridden by a jockey as good as Joe Fanning before. Joe, of course, is a master at assessing pace.

To this pair, I'm adding the hold-up type, The Navigator. He's down in class, scored well on Instant Expert and hold-up horses have done pretty well here under similar conditions and I think he could be involved late on in this one.

And that's my three from eight. To be honest, they're all much of a muchness and the early market would appear to agree...

I don't really have an overwhelming urge to stick my neck out for any of them, but if pushed, Blazer Two might be the one. No E/W interest from me in this contest, though, so watch Smart Lass now go and put a shift in!

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/07/23

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...none of which really grab my attention. Thankfully, as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.17 Hamilton
  • 3.27 Brighton
  • 3.45 Tipperary
  • 7.20 Roscommon
  • 9.00 Ffos Las

...from which, despite the small field, the 3.17 Hamilton looks the best. It's a 6-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m½f on good to soft ground...

The early (just after 2pm) opening show suggests that it could be a tight contest, with only Barley considered to be here to make up the numbers...

...and that might partially be because he's up in class here after three fairly poor efforts at Class 3. He is eased a pound, but you have to worry about his chances here. Top weight Austrian Theory is also up in class, despite only finishing 7th of 8 last time out, although he did win at this class/trip two starts ago.

Bottom weight Maysong is the sole LTO winner, having beaten the re-opposing pair Eilean Dubh (3rd) and Repertoire by 0.5 and 4 lengths respectively, but this pair are 9lbs and 12lbs better off here today, as Maysong isn't riden by his 7lb claimer. Repertoire did win over a mile at Class 4 three starts ago, but has toiled in this grade since.

Both EileanDubh and Barley wear first-time tongue ties, whilst it's a cheekpiece debut for Fantastic Fox, who along with Austrian Theory and Eilean Dubh are our three course and distance winners. The other three have yet to win here at Hamilton but have all scored over a similar trip.

All six have raced in the last 11 to 32 days, so no rustiness expected, nor are any thrown back in too quickly and we've no three year olds to muddy the waters with their weight allowances!

Further stats are available via Instant Expert, which says that only three of these have raced on good to soft ground before with just one successful, And we also find that Fantastic Fox's turf record at Class 2 really isn't very good...

The entire field are racing off marks 2 to 4lbs higher than their last winning marks, so there's little in it there. The Fox's 0/11 at Class 2 is a concern, as is Repertoire's 0 from 9. The other issue is Maysong failing to win any of seven attempts on good to soft ground, but he has managed to make the frame a few times...

...and whilst his win stats make me wary of backing him, his place data is probably the best on show, so a possible placer here? Mind you, unless something tells me to get on Barley, there'll be no E/W bet today, as 5/1 isn't long enough for me. Austrian Theory won this race last year but that was on good to firm, where he is 3 from 8 as opposed to his 0 from 11 elsewhere. Repertoire is the clear weak link on Instant Expert.

I don't expect any of these to be handed an advantage by the draw, as previous past contests here have gone like this...

...whilst the pace stats for those same races have really favoured those keen to get on with things...

...hold-up horses tend to struggle here from win a win and a place perspective and that's yet more bad news for Repertoire, based on his last four outings...

Summary

Repertoire was poor on Instant Expert and might well get left behind, based on his pace profile, so he's out. Maysong beat Eilean Dubh by half a length last time out and scored well on IE, but he's 9lbs worse off here and is another who might get outpaced, so he's gone too.

Austrian Theory won this last year and will probably attempt to win from the front here, but his record on anything slower than good to firm is abject and he has a tendency to run out of steam on these slower surfaces. All of which leaves us with three. Barley is unfancied by the early market and he's up in class after a series of poor runs in a lower grade. Surely he's not suddenly winning here?

So, almost by default, I've got Eilean Dubh and Fantastic Fox left to deal with and the latter simply isn't a Class 2 runner based on his past efforts, so I have to agree with the bookies by saying Eilean Dubh is the one to beat. Don't get me wrong, he's no standout here, but he's arguably the "least bad". A 9lb pull for a half length defeat is really beneficial and if he tracks the leader(s) as expected, he should win. 5/2 is probably about the right price, but I won't be lumping on in what looks a fairly mediocre race for a Class 2.

Next best might well be Maysong. Yeah, he's that 9lbs worse off here, but with an LTO win and two wins, two places from his last six, he might be the one for your forecast/exacta.