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Racing Insights, 31st July 2021

A mixed bag for me on my first day back, I suggested Magical Morning might win, but he was a disappointing 15th of 18 and I overlooked the winner at the first decision stage. On a more positive note, I was right not to back the fav (13th), whilst my 2nd and 3rd picks both made the frame for some E/W returns.

Now, our last offering for the month, I can't believe we're 7 months into 2021 already! Saturday's free feature is the excellent trainer/jockey combo stats report or TJC for short, which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and has produced excellent results for users.

Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. In addition to the TJC report, we also have the following full free racecards for all readers...

  • 3.40 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Galway
  • 6.05 Lingfield
  • 6.50 Hamilton
  • 7.20 Hamilton

There are a couple of Class 2 contests among the four UK races above (I don't have the confidence to tackle an 18-runner Galway handicap right now!) and they're both at the far extremes of field sizes. The first on the list has 28 runners and the last one has just five. In fairness the five runner race looks pretty competitive and after not being entirely comfortable with Friday's 20 runners, I'll stick with the small field today.

Thus, we're off over the border for some evening action in Strathclyde, as we consider the 7.20 Hamilton. It's a 5-runner, Class 2, Flat handicap, but you knew that already from above. It's for horses aged 3 and older over a trip of 1m½f on ground predicted to be good to firm, but showers are expected The prize is £15,462 and here are the handful of competitors as they appear on our cards...

Our starting point is the card itself and if we try to work from right to left, we see that all five have won at least once in their last five outings with Artisitic Rifles having won 3 from 5. Marie's Diamond and Home Before dusk both won last time out with the latter coming here seeking a hat-trick, so no qualms about any of them on form for now.

Artistic Rifles has been off the track for just over 11 weeks, but the remaining four have all been seen in the last one to three weeks and all five have won at or around this trip. Jump The Gun and Home Before Dusk are the two previous Hamilton winners with the former having won over course and distance.

There's a fairly big spread in official ratings/weight with Marie' Diamond carrying some 19lbs more than the two course winners at the bottom of the card, who both race from outside the handicap to the tune of 1lb and 4lbs respectively. Our Geegeez SR figures are quite spread out too from 113 to 76, but the two highest rated are only 5pts apart.

I won't dwell on trainer/jockey form at present, I'll cover those in my overview of the runners themselves, but needless to say there are plenty of positive stats to call upon, hence the dozen green icons across four runners.

Marie's Diamond bears top weight of 10 stones here and arrives on the back of winning by a head over a mile at Ayr twelve days ago, bringing an end to an 11-race losing streak stretching back to early June 2020 when he won a Listed race over a mile at Newmarket. In his defence, all bar one of those eleven losses came at Class 1 and he was only beaten by 2.5 lengths in this season's Gr3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at HQ. He's only a pound higher than that latest win and could go well again here under a jockey who has a good recent record at this track, especially for today's trainer...

Artistic Rifles will probably go off as favourite here after winning half of his last twelve starts including 3 of his last five. He probably did too much early on last time out, when weakening very quickly with over a furlong to run over York's mile 79 days ago. He was eventually 12th of 14 that day, beaten by some 10.5 lengths and either the rest will help him or a change of tactics is required, because he's better than that run would suggest. He is eased a pound here too and there are some good numbers for his handler...

Chichester's record of 2 wins from 12 is quite modest for this level of race, but he has won two and placed in three of his last eight, so he's going well enough. He was, like the runner above however, unplaced at York last time out. In his case he was 7th of 17, beaten by 3.5 lengths three weeks ago off today's mark. He was no means disgraced, but it's possible that his jockey gave him too much to do that day, but Callum Rodriguez keeps the ride, so gets a chance to atone here. And with trainer, jockey and trainer/jockey all faring well at Hamilton of late, Chichester could well be involved here.

Jump The Gun looks a little up against it here, having won just one of fourteen attempts on turf with that sole win being a Class 4 success off a mark 9lb lower than his current one. That said, his win was here over course and distance which is a positive, but he's now running from 1lb out of the handicap here after finishing two places behind Chichester at York last time out despite being sent off as the 6/1 favourite. I'd say he needs his mark to come back down before he's likely to win again.

Home Before Dusk comes here on a hat-trick since having blinkers applied for wins at Newcastle and also here at Hamilton over 1m1f. That course success, however, was not only a Class 4 contest but also his sole turf win from twenty attempts. He's far better on the A/W where he is 7 from 28 (5/14 at Newcastle) and after going up 8lbs between those two wins and running from 4lbs out of the handicap here, I'd be inclined to suggest that the ground and the weight are both against him. He's also 0 from 8 at Class 2, bt both trainer and jockey have good Hamilton records and they combine well too...

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I wouldn't really rule any of them completely out of here right now, but I'm leaning towards Marie's Diamond and Chichester at the moment, but the other tools might persuade me otherwise, starting with Instant Expert, a quick overview of our runners' records at going/class/course/distance/field size as well as a comparison of today's mark against their last turf win...

The two eyecatchers here are Marie's Diamond again along with Artistic Rifles, but runners 4 and 5 haven't really excelled over similar trips on turf so far. All five are running off higher marks than their last win, but Marie's Diamond is only 1lb higher, which is the easiest to overcome, I suppose.

*

Small fields often lead to tactical affairs where judging the pace of the race can be vital to a runner's chances and what we do know about pace here at Hamilton is...

...that in 21 previous contests under the above parameters (I've expanded slightly to get a more reliable sample size, pus we're due a bit of rain), that leaders fare significantly better than all other racing styles, winning more than half of the races from less than a quarter of the runners. Prominent racers who try to chase the leaders often get burned, but those racing in mid-division do better than par and these are also reflected in the place positions, which should be good news for the front running Marie's Diamond and Artistic Rifles.

In those 21 races, there doesn't seem to be a hugely discernible draw bias, but that's what you'd expect in a small field on a track with a long finishing straight, but for the record here are the stats for each stall...

If, as I normally do, we treat stalls 5 & 6 as one entity, then runners drawn higher than 4 have a win ratio of 16.13% and make the frame on 32.3% of occasions. I suppose if you had to choose where to be drawn, then stalls 4 or higher would have a marginal advantage, notwithstanding that stall 2 has the joint best record.

And this lack of real draw bias combined with two successful running styles out of four leads us to a pace/draw heatmap that has plenty of green zones on it, giving lots of runners a chance in similar Hamilton races...

Five of the twelve possible combinations have a 1 in 3 win record or better, so this could make for an open race, depending on how our five normally run and this is what their recent outings tell us...

...that not only are Marie's Diamond and Artistic Rifles the only pace angles here, but that they're also perfectly drawn to take advantage. The only fear is that they do too much too soon and burn each other out.

Summary

From the outset, I liked Marie's Diamond and Chichester. Whilst I still like them both here,I feel that the showing of Artistic Rifles from the stats/toolkit makes him a safer/better bet than Chichester.

Of the two front-runners who I think will provide the winner, Marie's Diamond ran better last time out and is only 1lb higher than his last win, whilst Artistic Rifles was poor at York off today's mark and is still some 8lbs higher than his last win.

So, for me, it's Marie's Diamond at 11/4 to beat the 2/1 fav, whilst Chichester is the 11/2 outsider of the field, but not long enough for a small E/W saver.

Racing Insights, 15th July 2021

As most of you are probably aware, away from Geegeez I run my own travel agency, so this will be my last piece for a fortnight, as I'm off to Antigua to (a) check out some hotels and (b) enjoy some refreshments in the sunshine 😉

But don't worry, I'm leaving you in the more than capable hands of Matt & Sam, whilst I'm gone, plus of you ever need a decent holiday deal, you know who to ask! 😀

Anyway, cheeky advert/plug done, on with the preview!

Thursday's feature of the day is full free access to the simple but intuitive Instant Expert report, which is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards. The reason? Its ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating.

The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This is freely available on Thursdays for ALL races, including our selection of free races, which are...

  • 1.30 Hamilton
  • 1.40 Killarney
  • 1.45 Chepstow
  • 4.00 Leopardstown
  • 4.10 Chepstow
  • 6.30 Leopardstown

A bit of a dilemma for here trying to choose a race to cover, the three Irish races are all maidens and the second of the Chepstow races only has three runners leaving me to pick between an 8-runner Class 6 sprint and a 12-runner fillies handicap. Although the smaller field is likely to have a shorter-priced favourite, I think there might be more scope to find an E/W pick, so we'll tackle the first on the list : the 1.30 Hamilton which is an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f on good ground worth £2,322...

FORM : Only Tanasoq, Captain Corcoran and Rose Bandit have a recent win on their form line and none won LTO.

CLASS : We have three class movers with Auckland Lodge, Debawtry and Mr Trevor dropping down from Class 5.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : The top five on the card have all won over this minimum trip and of those, Rose Bandit has done it here at Hamilton, making her the only previous course winner.

LAST RUN : All bar Auckland Lodge (38 days) and Captain Corcoran (99d) have been seen in the last three weeks, whilst Rose Bandit ran on Tuesday!

AGE : We have 2 x 3yo (getting a 6lb weight allowance), 4 x 4yo, a 6yo and an 8yo.

TRAINERS : Jim Goldie (Tanasoq) looks in good recent form, unlike Ben Haslam (Auckland Lodge)

JOCKEYS : Tanasoq, Rose Bandit, Rain Cap and Lady of Deisre have in-form jockeys, butt hose aboard Auckland Lodge and Mr Trevor are shy of winners right now. Paul Mulrennan and Jason Hart aboard Tanasoq and Captain Corcoran respectively both have decent records at this venue.

OR / SR FIGURES : The assessor thinks it'll be tight with just 2lbs separating the top four, whilst the top four of SR are 12pts apart.

Tanasoq heads both the OR & SR figures and comes here off the back six top three finishes in his last seven runs. He won a Class 5 at Newcastle two starts ago and and was only beaten by a short head at Ayr last time out, being headed on the line despite making a poor start. A better start and a similar run off the same mark here (he's due to go up 3lbs) puts him in the driving seat for me, as does...

Auckland Lodge is on face value, a decent enough sort with three wins from eleven starts to date, but closer inspection shows she was 3 from 6 at the end of September 2019 and hasn't made the frame since. She was 4th of 9 at Pontefract last time out despite breaking well from a good draw and that 4+L defeat makes it tough here.

Debawtry wouldn't be an obvious choice as winner, based on her 2 from 19 career record, but won a Class 5 at Newcastle in February and although beaten in all six runs since, her average margin of defeat is only around 2 to 2.5 lengths, giving her a squeak of a chance of making the frame now down in class.

Captain Corcoran ended last season with a win and a runner-up finish from his last three runs, but looked below par when re-appearing from a 196-day break to finish just fourth of eight at Catterick just over 14 weeks ago. He hasn't raced since then and could still be rusty. he's also 2lbs worse off here, so I don't see him posing much threat, although...

Rose Bandit is a former course and distance winner from just three weeks ago and she then won over 6f at Ayr 11 days later despite going up 8lbs. She raced again yesterday (Tuesday) but didn't go well at all. I don't know whether it was one race too many (8 runs in 76 days), whether it was the soft ground at Beverley or the 5 more pounds she was carrying. I suspect all three played a part in her finishing 8th of 14, beaten by over 8.5 lengths. If she's not too tired, she now has a 5lb claimer on board and the ground is better here, but she's definitely vulnerable despite...

Mr Trevor is still a seven-race maiden, but ran a good race to finish third of seven at Carlisle earlier this month, beaten by little more than a length and a half. He remains on that career low mark of 57, but would need to improve to make the frame here.

Rain Cap won a Class 5 seller over 7f at Redcar just over two years ago and hasn't made the frame in eleven starts since. That win "earned" him an opening handicap mark of 66, which is now down to 46, the same as he when he was beaten by almost nine lengths here over 6f last month, which doesn't bode well for his chances here. I'd be surprised if he beats any of the other seven runners.

Lady of Desire has a jockey taking 7lbs off her allotted weight of 8st3lbs, meaning she'll carry 26lbs less than Tanasoq, who heads the weights, but she'll still find this tough. No wins from twelve so far, but has made the frame in two of her last four without ever actually looking like she's due to win. She'll no doubt chase the leaders along for a while, but she's not even good enough for this contest, even if her 7lb claimer is more than useful...

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The form overview starts to sow seeds in the mind about who might have a chance and who you should avoid based on their careers to date, but some with a modest overall record might be better suited to today's conditions and for that, we have feature of the day, Instant Expert...

I'm not really surprised that this doesn't tell us too much, that's why these are Class 6 horses! Likely favourite Tanasoq prefers it quicker (5/20 on gd to fm), but Rose Bandit looks the best suited from a win perspective, notwithstanding the fears I've already got about her. Auckland Lodge seems to like the trip, though.

As for making the frame...

...Debawtry is definitely of interest, along with Tanasoq and Rose Bandit, both of whom you'd expect to feature. These three are drawn 1 to 3 here and although stall 1 has done well enough, I think I'd prefer to be drawn in box 4 or higher here...

This doesn't mean that the trio above can't win, of course, but history suggests it makes it more difficult. History also suggests that no matter which box you get put into, you'd better get out of it quickly and hit the front if you want to win...

And if you put the draw stats with the pace stats, you'll not be surprised to see that those drawn higher than 3 and who like to lead have done rather well...

And in draw order, here's how the field sit on that pace/draw heatmap...

Rose Bandit will look to make all against the rail with the rest of the pace coming from widest, whilst Tanasoq looks quite badly positioned.

Summary

After the original write-ups etc, I'd say that in terms of ability that it looked liked Tanasoq/Rose Bandit/Debawtry, but I've doubts about all three here. Tanasoq's record on good ground is poor and racing from the back of the field is going to be tough, so I can't back him at 11/8. I'm concerned about how jaded Rose Bandit looked on Tuesday and if she lines up here, she's very vulnerable to less-worked horses and at 3/1 offers little value.

Debawtry's pace/draw make-up doesn't look great either, but her run LTO was her best for a while and she actually led that day, so she might step forward and odds of 8/1 are interesting. I don't like Auckland Lodge here, despite the pace angle. Yard, jockey and horse seem out of sorts so that's one more off the list. I already said early on that both Lady of Desire and Rain Cap would struggle, so they're gone too.

That just leaves me with Captain Corcoran and Mr Trevor to consider and whilst I don't see either winning this, one could quite well make the frame. If forced to choose between them, it'd be the former, who I think is marginally better and offers more value at the odds (8/1 v 5/1).

At the end of the day, this should be a Tanasoq/Rose Bandit 1-2, but I'll just be having a couple of small stakes E/W punts (or place bets on the exchanges) on Debawtry and Captain Corcoran at 8/1 the pair.

 

Racing Insights, 29th June 2021

A nice 9/2 winner and near 8/1 forecast this afternoon as The Composeur beat the fav Boughtbeforelunch by 4.5 lengths in a race littered with jumping errors. It wasn't a pretty affair, but we've managed to bank a few quid for future use, starting on Tuesday, where 'feature of the day' is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day.

In addition to a daily free feature, we also open up the cards of a few races to all readers and for Tuesday, those free races are...

  • 2.45 Hamilton
  • 3.50 Hamilton
  • 5.10 Roscommon
  • 6.30 Stratford

...and whilst I'm tempted after today's success to stick with the jumpers, that second race at Hamilton is not only the best of the four free races, but it also features the top ranked qualifier on Tuesday's Shortlist report...

All of which means we're tackling the 3.50 Hamilton, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, Flat Handicap over 1m½f on Good ground and these are the contenders aiming to land the top prize of £15,462...

FORM : Only Hortzadar & Just Hiss are winless in their last six, whilst both Chichester & Headingley won LTO.

CLASS : Only Stunning Beauty & Hortzadar ran at Class 2 LTO, Poets Dawn steps up one class here, whilst the other seven all ran at Class 4 LTO.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar Fred have won at trips similar to today with Howser Black & Jump The Gun the only previous course (and CD) winners.

DAYS RESTED : All have raced in the past five weeks, so excuses about needing a run. Chichester, Fred, Howzer Black & Just Hiss all raced in the past week.

Stunning Beauty was 2 from 2 in the UK last year, but kicked off 2021 with two heavy defeats at Meydan. She then took some time off ahead of a winning return to UK racing, getting home by a neck on her Class 2 debut, but showed nothing last time out, when she pretty refused to run at Ascot after the hood was taken off quite late yard & rider seem in good nick...

Hortzadar won here at Hamilton last July on his only previous visit to this track, but was disqualified after his jockey weighed in light, but he did then land back to back Class 2 handicaps at Ripon and Goodwood in Aug/Sept. He hasn't win since, but was a good second at Epsom earlier this month and depsite not getting a look in for the Royal Hunt Cup last time out, remains of interest here.

Chichester was a narrowly beaten runner-up on his last run of 2020 prior to changing yards and since the switch, has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 in 2021. He was third of fourteen at this grade at Redcar last month off a mark of 85 and won off that same mark at Carlisle in a 15-runner contest last week. Up two classes and five pounds here, but clearly in good heart/form, as is his yard...

Poets Dawn is also having a decent season so far. Beaten by 11 lengths in a season pipe-opener at Redcar in early April, he has two wins and a runner-up finish (beaten by 0.75L LTO) from four starts since. He remains on a career-high mark of 86 which is 3lbs higher than his last win and this step up in class makes life tough today.

Fred is a decent enough Class 4 handicapper and has already raced nine times this year, winning three of them, but hasn't competed at this level for almost two years and now steps up two classes off a mark 3lbs higher than his highest winning mark. This should be far too tough for him.

Amaysmont is probably better on the A/W, as his sole Flat win from eleven attempts came on debut back in August 2019 and his turf record since then is patchy at 2067583052. He was 5th of 6 at Haydock, beaten by just over 5 lengths in April and a runner-up at Musselburgh last time out, which is encouraging, but he's up two classes and two pounds for that run, which probably reduces his chances greatly, although...

Howzer Black is a consistent sort if you're looking for a horse to make the frame in Class 3 to 5 races, where he has done so on 19 of 42 (4.24%) of occasions, but sadly he has finished 85605 in his five efforts at this grade and was beaten by 8 lengths when 9th of 15 in a Class 4 handicap at Carlisle six days ago, which doesn't suggest he's suddenly winning here off the same mark, but in his defence...

Jump The Gun is just one of two former course and distance winners in the field and he achieved the feat last time out, just 13 days ago, when landing a Class 4 contest by 3.5 lengths. The third-placed horse was beaten by almost six lengths, but has since reappeared to also win at this track & trip, which inspires some hope. However, all this took place two classes lower than today's contest and with Jump The Gun some 8lbs higher here, others offer much more appeal, even though...

Just Hiss is a five-time winner, but I'd say that his best days are firmly behind him. He has won just one of his last seventeen races over the past 32 months and has just one win and one place from eleven starts since the start of the 2020 campaign. He's now up two classes after being beaten by over five lengths off today's mark LTO and he hasn't even got his 7lb claim from that day to help here. Not for me, thank you.

Headingley is at the foot of the weights courtesy of his 10lb weight for age allowance here and whilst probably not good enough to land a blow here will be able to compete at least. He has only raced six times so far and landed a pair of back to back Class 5 novice contests either side of a 172-day winter break and has made the frame in two of his three handicap outings so far. He was, however, heavily beaten on his only effort at this grade, which suggests he's not quite there just yet.

*

To be honest with you, folks, this isn't a good race for a Class 2 contest. It'll be competitive for the minor money between a bunch of runners who don't look good enough to racer at Class 2, but it really should be a two or three-horse race here. I'm thinking that alphabetically I like Chichester, Hortzadar and Stunning Beauty from what I've read/written so far, but maybe the other racecard tools will sway me, starting with an overview of collateral form via Instant Expert..

I've sorted them by Class win percentage here, as I know that many of these haven't proven themselves in this grade yet. Admittedly they've not tackled Class 2 racing too often generally, but Just Hiss' 1/19 record is abject, I'm afraid, even if he has placed in 5 of the 18 defeats. Poet's Dawn & Howzer Black have consistently failed on good ground and the latter is some 7lbs higher than his last win, a burden only "bettered" by the extra 8lbs carried by Jump The Gun. I really don't think any of those four will be leaping into my considerations just yet!

Let's look at the draw...

If we say that stall 10 has 3 wins from 23 (13.04%) and 6 places from 23 (26.08%), then you'd be excused for thinking the draw wasn't of massive importance here and that it was open to interpretation. I think if I had to pick a sector of the draw I'd want my horse in, purely based on the above, then I'd probably want a 2 to 7 berthing, based on the place percentages and with the horses I originally liked occupying 2, 3 and 5, I'm still quite happy, but it's all well and good having a decent draw...

..using it to its full potential is another thing and that's where race positioning aka pace comes in and for similar events to this one...

...and the inference here is somewhat clearer. Leaders tend to get caught, but have often built enough enough of a gap on the pack to hold on for a place. Prominent racers fare really badly and fail to catch leaders and are susceptible to the faster finishing mid-division horses who go on to win twice as often as you'd expect, whilst hold up horses do little better than the prominent ones.

When we add those pace figures to the draw stats, we quickly find out that irrespective of draw, mid-division is the place to sit and racing prominently is a no-no. Hold-up horses really need a low draw and vice versa, whilst the exact opposite applies to high drawn runners, who need to lead etc...

As always, we 've got today's draw to hand and we know how these runners normally race, so we can apply the heatmap to this contest as follows...

I think we might have a bit of a 'burn up' here with Poets Dawn setting the pace from stall 4, but those in boxes 7 to 10 look likely to chase him, as might Stunning Beauty. That could leave up to half a dozen of them battling for the lead, making them susceptible to the likes of Chichester, Hortzadar and Amaysmont who seem to have the best pace/draw make-up here.

Summary

I've already said a couple of times that I'm leaning towards Chichester, Hortzadar and Stunning Beauty for this one and nothing has really popped up to change my mind. I'm worried that Stunning Beauty will do too much too soon and as she's conceding weight to all bar Hortzadar, I think such tactics will cost her, so she's my third pick.

As for the winner, I don't think there's much between the air I've got left, but Hortzadar's experience at this level tips the balance for me. This means my top three are also the top three in the weights, which rarely happens, but do the bookies agree?

To an extent, yes, but not enitrely. Hortzadar is fifth favourite here at 17/2 (Hills) and I'm more than happy to take that. You could even hedge the bet and go E/W at those odds. Chichester is 11/2 third fav with Hills, whilst Stunning Beauty is the current market leader at 5/2 (Bet365) or 11/4 (Hills), but it's Hortzadar for me.

Racing Insights, 16th June 2021

Poetic Flare was pretty imperious on his way to another Group 1 success by more than four lengths and I was happy to have got on at 4/1. Hopefully a few of you did the same. My second bet of the race was the 9/1 Chindit, who didn't manage to land the forecast for us, but did manage to finish fifth to give us a small profit from an E/W bet. As predicted, those who led were well beaten by  the end and our longshot E/W punt La Barrosa just never got into the race, but we've made a profit here, so it's time to move on.

Wednesday's feature is the Trainer Stats report, whilst our daily free races are as follows...

  • 1.20 Wexford
  • 2.40 Hamilton
  • 3.00 Wexford
  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 3.35 Wexford
  • 6.00 Ripon

I'll leave the Queen's Vase (3.05 Ascot) alone, as 15 runner contests are beyond my comfort zone and this game is all about playing the races you're most comfortable with. As you know, I'm also not a big fan of Irish racing and the Ripon offering is a fillies maiden, another sort I avoid. This means that today's focus falls upon a tight-looking small field affair in the 2.40 Hamilton, which is a 6-runner, 3yo+, Class 5, Flat handicap over 6f on Good to Firm ground. The prize is a mere £2,862 and these are the contenders...

Form : Only The Mackem Torpedo and Cool Dandy have won any of their last five runs, but that's not unusual at this level, there are plenty of placed efforts to consider.

Class Movers : The top two on the card ran at this grade LTO, but Reely Bonnie, The Mackem Torpedo, Stronsay and Cool Dandy all step up from Class 6.

Course / Distance form : Ey Up it's Mick is the only previous Hamilton winner and he's won over track and trip. Of the others, only Taylored and Stronsay have yet to score over 6f.

Days Rested : All have raced in the last three weeks (if you're reading on Tuesday!) with Cool Dandy having also raced as recently as Monday.

Age / Sex : We've two fillies (Reely Bonnie & Cool Dandy) and 2 x 3yo, a 4yo and 3 x 5yo.

Weight / SR Range : Ey Up It's Mick will carry top weight of 9-9 after allowances, some 18lbs more than Cool Dandy. At 72 on the SR figures Stronsay is well clear of the pack, but just two points separate the next three ranked, Ey Up it's Mick, Cool Dandy and Taylored.

Trainer Form : Stronsay's yard looks out of form, whilst The Mackem Torpedo's handler has struggled here at Hamilton of late, but David O'Meara (Taylored) does do well at this track.

Jockey Form : Andrew Mullen & Jack Garrity (Reely Bonnie & The Mackem Tornado) could both do with a change of fortune, but Sam James (Cool Dandy has had a god couple of weeks), whilst Ben Curtis (Stronsay) has ridden well here in the past.

Ey Up It's Mick was a course and distance winner here 11 months ago when scoring by two lengths off today's mark of 67, but he hasn't won any of 12 races since. That said, he has been running consistently without success, rarely getting beaten by much and only went down by a length and a quarter here over C&D less than a fortnight ago. If he could get going a little quicker, he'd have every chance here.

Taylored is 0 from 9 so far, but has been a narrowly beaten runner-up in both starts since switching to David O'Meara's yard and it is hoped that a drop in trip helps him see the race out a little better today.

Really Bonnie's form line makes dismal reading since she won at Ayr last July in a Class 6 6f contest on handicap debut off a mark of 63. She has struggled of late, losing her last four outings by a combined 54 lengths, all at Class 6 and the drop in trip with a rise in class just looks like they're trying anything they can to get a run out of her. She's not good enough here in my opinion.

The Mackem Torpedo was running consistently well in Class 6 handicaps last year and then won two from three in November/December. A drop to 5f didn't work for him on New Year's Eve when beaten by nearly 6 lengths. He was then off track for 159 days, but had no run last time out on his return as he stumbled and unseated his rider after less than a third of the 7.5f trip at Ayr last week. He'll probably still need a run and the step up in class won't help.

Stronsay has won just 1 of 31 outings to date and that sole win came on his fourth start some 34 months ago. Once rated 76, he could, however, now be on a dangerous mark of just 52, especially if running in a similar vein as when a 1.25 length runner-up here over course and distance last week. Yes, he's up in class and weight, but will have the benefit of Ben Curtis on his back and in a weak looking contest, that 2nd place LTO looks a good piece of work.

Cool Dandy is running pretty well right now and was a winner over 6f at Carlisle less than three weeks ago, before finishing third over the same track/trip on Monday. She's clearly enjoying herself right now and whilst I'm not sure she'll run here, she's sure to be involved if there are no ill effects turned back out so quickly. She's got some notable breeding behind her too and she's the most recent winner in this field.

Instant Expert isn't going to tell us much from a win perspective, when the field have a combined strike rate of just 7.62% (8 from 105)...

and it looks even worse when considering just Flat handicaps...

...but they have made the frame in 31 of those 105 runs (29.5%) which will at least give us a bit more data to play with...

...and in Flat handicaps...

On that final graphic, it's hard to overlook Ey Up It's Mick's place record in flat handicaps at class/course/distance especially as he has a win strike rate below 10% through his career, but a mark of 67 equals his highest winning mark, so he has little room for error. Stronsay & Really Bonnie are both well below their last winning marks and the latter has made the frame in three of four 6f Flat handicaps.

Draw Stats :

Again I've based my numbers of fields of 5-7 runners to give a larger sample size ...

And here for a 6-runner race, I'd be treating stalls 6 & 7 as one entity at 15 wins (26.79%) and 22 places (39.29%) from 56 runs and from that, I'd say that although stalls 1 to 3 win races at 21/48 (43.75%), they fall a little short of the 50% you'd expect if there was no draw bias and with stall 4 performing so badly, you'd probably also expect stall 3's figures to be a bit higher. Thus with stalls 5 and 6 now having 27 winners, I'd want my horse to be out wide today, which would favour The Mackem Tornado and Stronsay, whilst Instant Expert's best, Ey Up It's Mick, has the coffin box number 4.

Pace Stats :

Off a small number of runners, those who tend to race in mid-division do pretty well with an IV of 1.35, but leading is the best policy over 6f at Hamilton, especially on quicker ground. prominent runners often do too much too soon to chase the leaders, whilst hold up horses invariably end up too far off the pace to make anything from the race. Leaders manage to hold on to win 1 in 3 and make the frame almost 6 times out of 10 attempts...

Draw / pace : 

When we mix the draw stats with the pace stats, we generate a heat map made up of all 12 possible draw/run style combinations and we can look at how our runners normally run and drop them onto that heat map as follows...

This would suggest that nobody will want to take the race on, but Taylored has set the pace in each of  his last two outings since switching yards and as they have been his best runs to date, I'm expecting him to move towards the right on that chart and attempt to win it from the front. Next out of the stalls is likely to be the well drawn Stronsay and with very little pace inside of him, he should be able make the small tack across towards the near side and he also has a pace score of 4 (led ) and 3 (prominent) in his last four runs, so he could well go with Taylored to make a race of it.

Summary

Despite his suggested poor draw and pace/draw make-up, I still like Ey Up It's Mick's chances of finishing in the top half of the field and he's the one that I'd add to Taylored and Stronsay from above. Taylored is running well under new handling/tactics and Stronsay doesn't win anywhere near often enough. He cam pretty close last, but up in class and weight doesn't suggest he breaks that duck here. So it's between Taylored & Ey Up It's Mick for the win and I'm inclined to go with the recent progression of Taylored here.

As for the runner-up slot, there's not much between Ey Up It's Mick and Stronsay on my numbers, but it's hard to ignore the former's record at this venue, meaning Stronsay is the odd one out this time for me.

The bookies have Taylored as 9/2 fourth best here, so I'm happy to take a piece of that, whilst "Mick" is currently the fav as low as 9/4 and that's a bit skinny in my opinion. We've not his a forecast for a while, so it'd be nice if this one came in.

Stat of the Day, 1st September 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.00 Southwell : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3 (In rear, pushed along over 2f out, some late headway, beaten by 6 lengths and never nearer) Absolutely dreadful tactics with a horse known for prominent/front running.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Soft ground worth £6,631 to the winner...

Why?...

Running late due to some tech issues at home overnight, so I'll keep this as brief as I can, starting, as ever, with the racecard, which pretty much is my way in to this race....

So, trainer Julie Camacho's only runner of the day is this 3 yr old filly who won handsomely by 5.5 lengths under today's jockey over a mile at Haydock 24 days ago. The sample sizes aren't the best, but trainer & jockey seem to fare well together and Julie has a decent enough record here at Hamilton to warrant a second look, whilst the speed ratings are gently persuasive too.

A closer inspection of Julie's 5 year record here at Hamilton shows that her runners are actually 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 23.09pts (+144.3% ROI at betfair SP) over the last four (inc this one) seasons with the following of relevance/note today...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 24.09pts (+160.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/10 (70%) for 29.09pts (+290.9%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 30.09pts (+334.3%) with handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.36pts (+192%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.32pts (+190.3%) in races worth £4k to £8k
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.23pts (+203.9%) from those placed LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 9.4pts (+235%) stepping up a class
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 7.31pts (+182.2%) with female runners...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.55 Pontefract : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Towards rear, headway from over 2f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting from the racecard...

...we see a 4 yr old filly who won last time out (over class, course and distance on good to soft under today's jockey) 20 days ago. She has top billing on our speed ratings and hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C5), as does her jockey, Paul Mulrennan (C1 C5), so let's look at all three, starting with...

...the horse, a 4 yr old filly who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts at odds shorter than 5/1, she's 2 from 2 at this trip and also 2 from 2 in fields bigger than 12 runners.

Next, our jockey, Paul Mulrennan who is 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 40pts (+41.6% ROI) here at Hamilton since the start of the 2017 season and has ridden 7 winners from 46 (15.2% SR) for 15.6pts (+33.8% ROI) this year alone for...

...today's trainer, Michael Dods who has a good record here with runners to deemed to "have a chance". Basically, since the start of 2015, his horses sent off at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 (an odds range where most of my personal betting takes place) at Hamilton are 14 from 56 (25% SR) for 29.3pts (+52.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 13/39 (33.3%) for 38.64pts (+99.1%) during July to September
  • 12/40 (30%) for 38pts (+95.1%) over 6f to 1m4f
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 22.6pts (+56.6%) in handicaps
  • 9/20 (45%) for 33.1pts (+165.5%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 8/25 (32%) for 28.3pts (+113.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 5.7pts (+29.9%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16pts (+100%) on Good to Soft
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.3pts (+236.4%) with 4 yr olds...

...whilst handicappers running during July to September over 6f-1m4f at 11-20 dslr are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 22.8pts (+253.3% ROI), including Antico Lady's run/win last time out.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 5.40am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead again over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is running here off a mark 3lbs lower than his last winning effort and races 2lb lower than he would be next week, having run really well in defeat LTO when second (beaten by half a length) at Ayr with the re-opposing Lydiate Lady and Northern Society more than three lengths further behind just ten days ago.

The fact he runs again so quickly after that good run is what flagged him up to me last night, as trainer Michael Mullineaux's Flat handicappers turned back out less than three weeks after a top 3 finish LTO are 13 from 66 (19.7% SR) for 80.65pts (+122.2% ROI) since the start of the 2015 campaign and these include of relevance today...

  • 13/59 (22%) for 87.65pts (+148.6%) during June to September
  • 10/48 (20.8%) for 74.3pts (+154.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 46.74pts (+111.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 37.18pts (+103.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/32 (21.9%) for 54.81pts (+171.3%) in 6-9 runner contests
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 48.99pts (+222.7%) on good ground
  • and 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 20.58pts (+228.7%) for today's runner, Somewhere Secret...

...whilst Class 6 runners competing for less than £4k during June-September at the same class as LTO are 6 from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.62pts (+107% ROI), including 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 5.92pts (+65.8%) since the start of last season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Thursday with some 11/4 non-BOG until later in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!