ASCOT – MAY 12
Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:
2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)
2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)
2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)
2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)
Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)
Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)
Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)
Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)
Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH. Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)
2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager. MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.
Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.
3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.
4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges. The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21). It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80. Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.
Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):
18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)
29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)
23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)
25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)
13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)
2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)
7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)
21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)
1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)
13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)
16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)
9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)
Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:
1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)
1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)
2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)
1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)
4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix. It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW. Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.
5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1. Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals). MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.
Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.
22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)
2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)
1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)
4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)
3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)
9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)
7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.