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Stat of the Day, 19th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.40 Brighton : Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Heavy ground worth £4787 to the winner...  

Why?

Two runs on soft/heavy so far for this 2 yr old gelding have resulted in him making the frame on both occasions, so he shouldn't be unduly worried by the conditions here today. The step up from 6f to 7f has looked like one he needed to make, whilst crucially those two placed finished I just mentioned were both at Class 2 and this is a Class 5 contest!

The drop in class, the extra furlong and his aptitude with cut in the ground suggested to me that he might well have been overpriced, although the market hasn't yet agreed with me, perhaps he's the right price after all?

The booking of David Nolan for the ride is a positive to me, because he's had a good season here in the North West , winning 5 of 17 races at Haydock (29.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 23.5pts (+138.3% ROI), all on male runners and including...

  • 4/16 (25%) for 22.34pts (+139.6%) in handicaps
  • no run on heavy, but 2/7 (28.6%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%) on soft
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.1pts (+369.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 for 1.17pts on a 2 yr old.

David also has a decent record on Richard Fahey horses, a record that improves dramatically based on today's race conditions, which I'll now attempt to highlight. We'll start with the Fahey/Nolan record since 2012 which stands at 70 from 559 (12.5% SR) for 125.8pts (+22.5% ROI) : a more than acceptable strike rate and an excellent return from blind backing gives us a good starting point to be more specific, as these 559 runners include...

  • over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs : 64/468 (13.7%) for 176.4pts (+37.7%)
  • at odds of 4/1 to 10/1 : 35/231 (15.2%) for 62.3pts (+27%)
  • 2yr olds are 21/191 (11%) for 150.8pts (+79%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/190 (13.2%) for 86.5pts (+45.5%)
  • and over the last 12 months : 13/55 (23.6%) for 35.1pts (+63.8%)

And using distance / odds / age / class / dates to define the selections then leads me back to one of my stored micro systems that I'm happy to share with you today, namely...

...Fahey + Nolan + 2 to 4 yr olds + Class 4 to 6 + 5f to 1m2f + 4/1 to 10/1 + 2015 to 2018 = 21/92 (22.8% SR) for 81.8pts (+89% ROI), which in terms of today's contest gives us...

  • males at 18/68 (26.5%) for 75pts (+110.3%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 16/59 (27.1%) for 80.65pts (+136.7%)
  • in handicaps : 12/46 (26.1%) for 53.9pts (+117.2%)
  • at 4/1 to 6/1 : 15/42 (35.7%) for 57.2pts (+136.2%) today's only variable parameter
  • over 7 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 42.6pts (+146.8%)
  • in October : 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.3pts (+166.4%)
  • and in Nursery races : 2/10 (20%) for 9.81pts (+98.1%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.30 Chepstow : Swendab @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led after 1f, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Fillies' Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly might well be a seven-race maiden but having made the frame on 5 (3 of which were at a higher grade than today) of those 7 outings, she certainly is due a win and she ran particularly well last time out just six days ago and it is hoped that a first time visor might just eke a little more out of her here to break her duck.

Her trainer Ian Williams has been successful at this venue over the years, saddling up 27 winners from 176 (15.3% SR) for profits of 40pts (+22.% ROI) since 2008 and these include...

  • 23/75 (30.7%) for 59.48pts (+79.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 53.27pts (+88.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 39.83pts (+76.6%) on Good to Firm
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 31.5pts (+70%) at Class 5
  • and 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.41pts (+87.6%) after resting for 10 days or less

This quick turnaround of a horse last seen 6 days ago is a successful strategy adopted by Ian Williams who has had 136 winners from 545 (24.95% SR) for 224.8pts (+41.25% ROI) profit since 2010 with horses turned back out just 4 to 10 days after their last run (resting not rusting, I call it) and of these 545 quick returners...

  • Handicaps : 113/438 (25.8%) for 253.8pts (+58%)
  • Flat : 50/178 (28.1%) for 69.2pts (+38.9%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 44/155 (28.4%) for 70.43pts (+45.44%)

...and finally, it;s worth looking at Ian's record with horses wearing a visor for the first time, as since 2010, this approach has found him 19 winners from 100 (19% SR) and profits of 87.19pts (+87.19% ROI), from which...

  • Handicaps : 15/84 (17.9%) for 86.7pts (+103.2%)
  • Flat : 12/43 (27.9%) for 91.7pts |(+213.2%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 9/38 (23.7%) for 89.39pts (+235.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOGa price offered by 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.13pm on Wednesday. Bet365 however are offering 11/4 BOG so grab that if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

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Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £285.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 48.1% units went through – 80/1 – 3/1 – 5/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 93.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 4/7* - 14/1

Race 3: 29.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/4* - 7/1

Race 4: 12.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 6/1 – 16/1

Race 5: 19.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 11/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 76.2% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 10/3 – 10/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Almurr), 3 (Confiding) & 4 (Daafr)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Klassique), 2 (Feline Groovy) & 9 (Solar Echo)

Leg 3 (2.20): 8 (Snow Wind) & 7 (Scottish Jig)

Leg 4 (2.55): 1 (Sea Of Class) & 3 (Dramatic Queen)

Leg 5 (3.30): 5 (Dourado), 1 (Madeleine Bond) & 9 (Wind In My Sails)

Leg 6 (4.00): 1 (Agar’s Plough) & 3 (Mountain Peak)

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Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.20: ALMURR was the subject of some market activity overnight and there was plenty to like about Brian Meehan’s Dandy Man representative when beaten less than three lengths on debut at Leicester.  CONFIDING has been pleasing connections back at Martin Meade’s ranch, whilst DAAFR should be there or thereabouts entering the final furlong.

Favourite factor: Only one of three favourites has secured a Placepot position to date.  The relevant 4/7 market leader finished second last year as we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective after three renewals.

 

1.50: This is a guessing game to a fashion, though the Galieo filly KLASSIQUE could be a tad overpriced with a couple of firms at the time of writing.  William Haggas continues his relentless run of decent form and Tom Marquand’s mount might prove to be the safest option, from a Placepot perspective at least.  Others catching the eye include stable companion FELINE GROOVY and SOLAR ECHO.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.20: With a couple of likely looking representatives in the first heat of this contest, William Haggas looks to have a fairly strong hold, having declared his High Chaparral filly SNOW WIND.  Bet365 are out on a limb at 9/2 as I pen this column and that could look a very decent price in an hour or two I’ll wager.  SCOTTISH JIG has experience on her side (to a fashion) and John Gosden’s Speightstown raider also looks sure to go close.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card. The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.55: SEA OF CLASS and DRAMATIC QUEEN hail from the William Haggas yard which is seemingly seeking to take over the meeting given their declarations on Thursday.  SEA OF CLASS looks to be the clear pick of the pair, though readers should take note of the ‘favourite factor’ below before diving in with both feet!

Favourite factor: Only one of the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events has finished in the frame, stats which include the last two odds on favourites.  That said, market leaders have won three of the last seven renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sea Of Class (good to firm)

 

3.30: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured six of the available eight Placepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 25/1, 15/2 and 6/1, albeit via 70% of the total number of runners.  Upwards and onward using that ‘edge’ by naming DOURADO, MADELEINE BOND and WIND IN MY SAILS against the remaining thirteen contenders.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, whilst only one of the market leaders has secured a Placepot positon during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

1/2—Madeleine Bond (good)

1/2—Wind In My Sails (good to firm)

1/1—Kyllachys Tale (good to firm)

1/9—Cricklewood Green (good)

 

4.00: If any of the 15/2 on offer about AGAR’S PLOUGH is still available, I would be inclined to make an investment in a race in which barely any other horse has attracted support overnight.  MOUNTAIN PEAK is nominated as the most obvious threat.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged via the last ten contest, though seven gold medallists during the study period scored at a top price of 7/1.  Five of the ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £197.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.9% units went through – 5/1 – 33/1 – 17/2 (11/4)

Race 2: 21.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 11/2 (8/13)

Race 3: 57.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 13/2

Race 4: 47.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 5: 46.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 28/1

Race 6: 45.8% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 9/2 – 14/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 3 (Berlios), 2 (Vallarta) & 7 (Merdon Castle)

Leg 2 (6.30): 3 (March For Men) & 4 (Mr Diamond)

Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Rosemay), 6 (Titus Bolt) & 5 (Granite City Doc)

Leg 4 (7.30): 3 (Mr Wagyu) & 6 (Cameo Star)

Leg 5 (8.00): 3 (Natajack), 7 (Colur Contrast) & 4 (Haymarket)

Leg 6 (8.30): 1 (Afandem) & 3 (Logi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.00: Although representing no value for money whatsoever, it’s difficult to ignore the claims of BERLIOS, especially from a Placepot perspective whilst others to consider in this amateur rider event (careful where you tread) include VALLARTA and MERDON CASTLE.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last decade, though other gold medallists included those returned at 40/1, 20/1 12/1 & 10/1.  That said, five of the last six market leaders secured Placepot positions.

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Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

2/3—Dodgy Bob (good to firm & soft)

1/5—Mitchum (soft)

1/6—Picks Pinta (good to firm)

1/5—Gaelic Wizard (good to firm)

 

6.30: Diviner has at least won a race from three assignments thus far but it would be disappointing in the extreme if either MARCH FOR MEN and/or MR DIAMOND failed to finish ahead of Mark Johnston’s Wolverhampton scorer who has subsequently disappointed.  The relevant newcomers hail from the powerful yards of Tom Dascombe and Richard Fahey respectively and connections would be miffed to say the least if their youngsters failed to become involved in the finish of such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 favourite failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

7.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which definitely brings the likes of TITUS BOLT and GRANITE CITY DOC into the equation.  There has been overnight support for ROSEMAY however which adds interest to proceedings.  Ian Jardine’s Mayson filly has been well placed by the trainer and but for the negative weight trend in place, Joe Fanning’s mount would be a strong selection.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite via seven renewals to date.  That said, six of the nine market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Falcon’s Fire (soft)

 

7.30: There will be worse outsiders on the card than Zumurud I’ll wager, one of five raiders on the card for Rebecca Bastiman whose ratio at the track this year stands at 3/9, stats which have produced a level stake profit thus far.  That all said, MR WAGYU commands plenty of respect, whilst the Placepot chance for CAMEO STAR is also there for all to see.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

8.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which eliminate three horses from the field from my perspective if we take potential jockey ‘allowances’ into consideration.  At various positions in the market this morning, the trio which make most appeal consists of NATAJACK, COLOUR CONTRAST and HAYMARKET.

Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have secured five of the seven renewals thus far, with favourites coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Six of the eight favourites finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/8—Haymarket (good)

1/14—Rioja Day (good to soft)

 

8.30: Whilst I bypassed one of Mark Johnston’s horses (Diviner) with a supposedly obvious chance earlier on the card, I will not desert Mark’s representative AFANDEM in this grade/company, especially with the Vale Of York gelding having attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the hat trick seeker LOGI.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Hamilton card.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Logi (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Zylan (good to firm)

7/33—Economic Crisis (3 x good to soft – 2 x soft – good & heavy)

5/21—Alexandrakollantai (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft – heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th June

GOODWOOD – JUNE 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £156.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 55.9% units went through – 9/2 – 6/1 – 7/2*

Race 2: 48.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 9/2** - 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 3: 32.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 22/1 – 6/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 55.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 5/1

Race 6: 28.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (5/2)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 9 (Unbridled Spirit), 2 (Cheeky Rascal) & 4 (Marble Bar)

Leg 2 (6.30): 7 (Flowing Clarets), 5 (Incentive) & 8 (Mad Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Sky Eagle), 2 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Arab Moon)

Leg 4 (7.40): 2 (Pretty Jewel), 3 (Arcadian Cat), 4 (Gift Of Hera) & 1 (Reckless Wave)

Leg 5 (8.15): 2 (Silca Mistress)

Leg 6 (8.50): 9 (Supernova), 5 (Great Beyond) & 3 (Crystal King)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

  • Nice win for us yesterday with 48 winning 10p lines at Sandown which created a Placepot profit of £212.64 on the day…

 

5.55: Although three of his seven runners won during a good period this time last week, Andrew Balding’s runners continue to blow hot and cold this season, though I’m hoping the flag back at the ranch will by flying at its highest mast after UNBRIDLED SPIRIT scores here, chiefly at the expense of CHEEKY RASCAL and MARBLE BAR I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top priced of 7/1, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.  Five of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

6.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in this event, though only John Bridger (FLOWING CLARETS) seems alive to the potential ‘edge’.  Luke Morris might find himself in a tassle to grab the lead aboard John’s raider early doors though either way, I’m adding Flowing Clarets into the mix via my self-confessed anorak tendencies.  Stuart Kittow’s pair INCENTIVE and MAD ENDEAVOUR are included in the Placepot equation in a race which could produce a result which will kill off several thousand Placepot units – hopefully!

Favourite factor: Four of the last five winners (of six in total) have scored at a top price of 5/1, stats which include two (7/2 & 5/2) winners.  That said, only three of the seven market leaders thus far have finished in the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Oeil De Tigre (good to soft)

1/3—Mad Endeavour (soft)

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet only a trio of vintage representatives feature in the nine strong field.  There have been other forecasts gained during the period though the 2015 renewal stood out with four-year-olds securing a 120/1 Exacta Forecast alongside the 345/1 Trifecta dividend!  This year’s trio are SKY EAGLE, HUMBLE HERO and ARAB MOON.  The defence rests its case!

Favourite factor: Only one 7/2 (joint favourite) has obliged during the last decade during which time, just four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/3—Arthur Mc Bride (good & soft)

 

7.40: PRETTY JEWELL would be the call if had to nominate one of the four declarations from a win perspective, though with her course victory having been gained under soft conditions, I feel duty bound to include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Goodwood card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Pretty Jewel (soft)

 

8.15: I have searched through the card for a banker in one of the races, knowing that I was going to have to offer large perms in some races, believing that a good Placepot dividend is on the cards tonight.  I have opted for SILCA MISTRESS, even though Clive Cox’s raider drops down a furlong after scoring at Leicester recently.  Having made all at Leicester, pace should not be an issue and nothing should be staying on stronger in the final furlong.  Adam Kirby’s mount has secured gold and silver medals over this distance in the past via six assignments, whilst her two victories to date have been gained under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first (seventh of nine) it what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.

 

8.50: SUPERNOVA looks a tad big at 9/2 in four places at the time of writing, whilst others added into the Placepot equation are GREAT BEYOND and CRYSTAL KING.  If you are looking for an each way interest in the race, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Sarim I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest to close out the Goodwood programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 7th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

201: £53.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.8% units went through – 8/1 & 1/2*

Race 2: 27.1% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 -16/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

Race 5: 87.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/4* - 6/1

Race 6: 54.3% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 11/4 – 16/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 3 (Heartwarming) & 9 (Satisfying)

Leg 2 (6.25): 7 (Manor Park), 2 (Sharja Silk) & 1 (Ghostwatch)

Leg 3 (7.00): 6 (George Villiers) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (7.35): 7 (Jack Regan), 3 (Infastructure) & 2 (Corgi)

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Leg 5 (8.05): 1 (Cross Counter) & 4 (Al Muffrih)

Leg 6 (8.40): 11 (Railport Dolly), 13 (Chantresse) & 5 (Fondest)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.55: To commence, I should point out that there are no course winners at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought I had forgotten to include the service today!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that it’s worth noting that HEARTWARMING was withdrawn from a race at Nottingham at the back end of last month on account of the soft ground, despite having been backed on the exchanges prior to being taken out of the contest.  Clive Cox looks sure to go ahead with his Showcasing filly here as she has no other entries at the time of writing, notwithstanding tonight’s ground which should just about be perfect for racing on the level.  SATISFYING is the only rival to be standing up against the projected favourite on the exchanges, with just threepenny and sixpenny bits around for ZAPLA.  That said, that is more than is being spent on Sir Michael Stoute’s Dubawi filly Vivionn who will surely need a distance of ground before beginning to show the best of her potential.  Against that however, we should observe that the dam (Giant’s Play) was only beaten ‘three parts’ at the first time of asking on Kempton’s all weather surface.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/3 favourite was beaten when securing a Placepot position, flanked by horses which were returned at 8/1 and 5/1.

 

6.25: A ‘dual purpose’ trainer (Anthony Honeyball) won the first running of this event twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Alan King to follow suit, with Alan proving so successful with three-year-old stayers in the making these last few years.  Alan saddles MANOR PARK here with his progressive Medicean gelding now stepping up two and a half furlong in trip, whereby nothing can be taken as read prior to flag fall.  Alan has proved himself to be a good judge at this level however and Martin Harley’s mount should be the one in the field to bustle up Charlie Appleby’s projected market leader GHOSTWATCH.  Not the only horse to have endured traffic problems at Chester last time out, GHOSTWATCH has been made favourite on three of his four assignments to date, only scoring on one occasion thus far.  The other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly is SHARJA SILK who was doing all his best work at the finish over twelve furlongs at Ascot the last day.  The additional quarter of a mile should certainly suit Roger Varian’s Dubawi colt.

Favourite factor: Last year’s biggest favourite casualty on the Placepot front occurred when the 6/5 jolly failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame in this event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

7.00: Although there is some each way support for BAMBASTIC coming in as light begins to appear in the sky over Bristol this morning, this race should chiefly concern GEORGE VILLIERS and MASHAHEER in a contest which is likely to produce several future winners (well worth recording).  The main pair are marginally listed in order of preference, though the market has already spoken up in favour of the latter named William Haggas representative.  That said, there was plenty of like about the win of GEORGE VILLIERS back in November at Kempton when shrugging off as many as seven rivals who all had chances in the last furlong.  ‘George’ led a long way from home and despite looking vulnerable when racing well wide of the far rail after the ‘cut away’, the Dubawi gelding showed great determination with the jockey not having to go for everything close home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished nearer last than first (ninth of eleven contenders) when over 76% of the remaining Placepot units in leg three went up in smoke.

 

7.35: I tend to find that I have better luck with Amanda Perrett’s runners at each way prices whereby I am overlooking the chance of Desert Path in favour of JACK REGAN, INFASTRUCTURE and CORGI in a typically fascinating Sandown event.  There is no surprise that this race has already lost its original ‘dead eight’ stats as Sandown hosts more six/seven runners races (under both codes) than any other track in the land, or so my experience tells me, invariably leading to great Placepot puzzles on the majority of occasions.

Favourite factor: Over half of the live units made it through to the penultimate leg twelve months ago, despite the (9/4) market leader finishing out with the washing.  The fact that the second and third favourites filled another ‘short field frame’ helped the majority of ‘Potters’ out twelve months ago.

 

8.05: Another classic encounter of the Sandown kind, albeit I am playing on words to a fashion with CROSS COUNTER making plenty of appeal given the ‘8.6’ quote on the exchanges overnight.  What has to be taken into account however, is that Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old is asked to give seven pounds to AL MUFFRIH whereby the top weight will only be backed by yours truly from a win and a Placepot perspective.  10-1 is a heavy burden for one so young, which is why I will probably pass up the each way option as I cannot believe that William Buick will be hard on the Teofilo gelding if his chance of winning the race has gone.  I can’t help myself putting Charlie’s raider in the mix though, alongside the Sea The Stars foal AL MUFFRIH.  Elwazir also has plenty of scope for improvement holding definite Placepot claims.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

8.40: Only three-year-olds can be seriously taken into account in these mixed vintage handicaps at this time of year, especially in the case of a ‘fillies’ only event.  CHANTRESSE is a northern challenger to consider here (see favourite stats below) given that the somewhat unusual nine furlong trip could play to her strengths.  RAILPORT DOLLY is another in the field that could benefit for this type of distance, whilst the Placepot chance for FONDEST is there for all to see, albeit the slightly cramped 9/4-5/2 odds on offer at the time of writing dilute confidence in backing the James Fanshawe raider, albeit the trainer has been back among the winners of late after a lean period.  Just one winner in May via 35 runners should emphasize my point.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (northern trained) 9/4 favourite duly obliged for the Mark Johnston team and plenty of Mark’s followers.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.20 Wolverhampton : Mischief Managed@ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Soon chasing leaders on outside, pushed along and outpaced 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, ran on towards finish)

We continue with Thursday's...

2.00 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good To Firm worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 3 yr old gelding who seemed to love the switch to quicker ground when making all to win over 1m4f on his first crack at Good to Firm ground last time out. He stayed on well for a comfortable success 23 days ago and looks a progressive type that might take some catching today, especially from stall 2 against a set of rivals previously lacking a willingness to set any early pace of their own.

His trainer Tom Dascombe is a master at getting LTO winners to repeat the feat with 95 from 381 (24.9% SR) doing so since the start of 2012 and a £10 bet on each of hem would have seen you clear £1458 profit at an ROI of some 38.3% : good going for blindly backing a set of runners. If you didn't want to back all of them, the following filters applicable today might appeal to you...

  • those sent off at 8/1 and shorter are 88/284 (31%) for 87.8pts (+30.9%)
  • those whose LTO win was 11-60 days earlier are 73/271 (26.9%) for 146.4pts (+54%)
  • on the Flat only : 57/267 (21.4%) for 125.5pts (+47%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 19/78 (24.4%) for 23.1pts (+29.7%)
  • and here at Haydock : 19/52 (36.5%) for 56.8pts (+109.1%)

and from the above, you could always just back Flat runners priced at 8/1 and shorter some 11 to 60 days after their LTO win for 40 winners from 136 (29.4% SR) for 56.3pts (+41.4% ROI) and if you did, you'd find that here at Haydock 16 of 43 (37.2%) were winners making 21.4pts (+49.7%) whilst those racing on Good to Firm won 16 of 40 (40%) for 33.85pts (+84.6%), whilst...

...Flat runners on Good to Firm ground here at Haydock priced at 8/1 and shorter are 9 from 12 (75% SR) for 28pts (+233.2% ROI) profit.

Now, much has written elsewhere (and highly likely by me in the past too) about Tom Dascombe's (excellent) record here at Haydock, so I'm not going to plough that particularly worn furrow today, other than to say that this specific type of contest is one to follow him in, as his Class 5 handicappers are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 153pts (+364.3% ROI) here over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we're roughly halfway through this one!).

And of those 42 Class 5 handicappers here, those racing on Good to Firm are 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.05pts (+178.9%) whilst LTO winners are 4 from 9 (44.4%) for 6.13pts (+68.2%)...

...adding a bit more weight to...a 1pt win bet on Quantatmental @ 11/4 BOG , which was available from 10Bet, Bet365, SkyBet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th May

CHESTER – MAY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 93.3% units went through – 9/4 – 7/1 – 11/10*

Race 2: 54.5% of the remaining units when through – 4/1* - 15/2 – 9/2

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 50/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 50.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 5/1 – 5/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 82.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* - 10/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 – 20/1 – 16/1 (2 x 5/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Dragon Moon) & 7 (Wind Storm)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Awesome), 5 (Lamya) & 10 (Stewardess)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (South Seas), 6 (Sabador) & 4 (Muntadab)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Precision), 3 (Humble Hero) & 1 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (4.05): 6 (Key To Note) & 3 (Port Of Laith)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Jabbarr), 1 (Desert Ruler) & 6 (Be Perfect)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: DRAGON MOON is asked to give eleven pounds to WIND STORM and the concession might be too much for Richard Hannon’s recent Lingfield winner, despite the fact that the form was franked by Crossing The Line on Thursday.  Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor filly holds two other entries next week but with only five other rivals to beat, I doubt that Ralph will change his mind, even with WIND STORM having ‘trap six’ to overcome in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chester.

 

2.20: If there is one word in the dictionary which dives me crackers it’s AWESOME.  Not the actual word you understand, it’s the way that Americans pronounce the term, especially as the word is (seemingly) included in every other sentence they speak!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Clive Cox’s Bahamian Bounty filly should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, though her number nine stall tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  Better housed horses such as LAMYA (1/10) and STEWARDESS (4) can make things interesting in the short straight.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Chester card.

 

2.55: All three winners have carried weights between 8-10 & 9-1 and two horses ‘qualify’ via the weight stats on this occasion, namely, SABADOR and SOUND ADVICE.  Roger Fell is a shrewd trainer and no mistake and his recent 4/10 strike rate catches the eye, especially having secured 13 points of level stake profit during the period.  Roger’s raider MUNTADAB would have been the third qualifier (via the weights) but for a five pound claimer having been booked to ride.  I’m going to add MUNTADAB into the equation given Roger’s great form of late.  The other horse to catch the eye is SOUTH SEAS who has dropped into the positive ‘sector’ of the handicap via another apprentice booking, this time being made by trainer Andrew Balding.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (5/6) winner.

Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Above The Rest (good to soft)

4/10—Sound Advice (3 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Baraweez (good)

1/1—The Feathered Nest (good)

2/7—Penwortham (2 x good)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests, with seven winners carrying a minimum weight of 8-11.  Putting the stats and facts together, PRECISION and HUMBLE HERO stand out from the crowd from my viewpoint.  The pair is listed in order of preference on account of the draw, five over nine in a twelve runner field.  How many horses will be withdrawn because of ‘car park’ positions in the stalls remains to be seen.  NIGHT OF GLORY (1) is offered the reserve nomination, though having only had one ride around the track, five pound claimer Jason Watson will have to be on top form, albeit the young pilot has ridden 28 winners to date.

Favourite factor: All eight race during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite, with gold medallists ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 during the period, creating a successful average price of 11/2.  The last five market leaders have all finished out with the washing.

Chester record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

1/1—Tor (good to soft)

1/4—Kajaki (heavy)

1/17—Gabrial’s King (good)

2/8—Zenafire (good & good to soft)

 

4.05: With Tom Dascombe’s local newcomer Smoki Smoka still “looking a bit weak’ back in the spring via a stable tour, I’m inclined to opt for Mark Johnston’s experienced pair PORT OF LEITH and KEY TO POWER against their four rivals in a juvenile event which should not prove difficult to win. Mark’s Slade Power filly KEY TO NOTE beat seven others home on debut when finding one too good on her first day at school at Thirsk.  Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) from race one to two should see her home with something to spare from trap four.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.40: With over 53% of Iain Jardine’s winners on the flat being secured at the three tracks which house racing on the level in Scotland, we have to tread carefully when the trainer ventures ‘south’ but Ian might snare his third success on the Roodee with JABBAARR in our final heat.  Iain has become a class act and Phillip Makin’s mount looks set to take maximum advantage of his trap one position.  DESERT RULER (3/10) and BE PERFECT (4) can chase home the selection.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Chester programme.

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Be Perfect (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

8.30 Pontefact : Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Steadied start, in rear, switched wide into straight 2f out, never on terms)

Next up is Saturday's...

3.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 

An 8-runner, Group 2 contest (Sandy Lane Stakes) for 3yo over 6f on Good To Soft ground (watering, even though there's heavy rain in the area) worth £51039 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, guys (and gals, of course!), late start today, but the usual amount of research has been done, but I'll cut down on the waffle!

A 3 yr old filly (so gets a useful 3lbs allowance) making her seasonal return some 253 days after completing a perfect 3 from 3 debut season as a 2yo.

Amongst those runs were two wins at this Gr 2 level including one (LTO) at Doncaster where she stayed on really well on similarly good to soft ground as she'll face today. She looked like she'd get further than that day's 5f and being another year stronger, I'd expect her to be well suited by the 6f on offer here.

Trainer Clive Cox won this race last year and comes here in good form with 11 winners from 56 (19.6% SR) for profits of 14.6pts (+26% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • at 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 21.3pts (+59.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.32pts (+18.8%)

Now although Clive had the winner of this race last year, he doesn't send many runners to this venue, but those that come tend to go well with 9 winners from 51 (17.7%) generating 43.9pts profit at an ROI of 86.2% since the start of 2013, from which...

  • over 6f course and distance : 5/20 (25%) for 48.8pts (+244%)
  • at Class 1 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 7.5pts (+53.4%_
  • and on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 44.7pts (+447%)

And for those of you concerned about the horse's 253 days off track, Clive's runners returning from breaks of 8 to 24 months are 10 from 40 (25% SR) for 49.9pts (+124.7% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which...

  • he's 5/12 (41.7%) for 27.5pts (+229.5%) on May
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 31.1pts (+444.7%) at Class 1

Clive also has a good record with LTO winners, but as this filly has been off track so long since her LTO win, I didn't think thise stats were as relevant as they could be today...

...but we've already definitiely enough for...a 1pt win bet on Heartache @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 10.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 25th May

PONTEFRACT – MAY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £16.20 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.9% units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 16/1 (11/4**)

Race 2: 30.4% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 54.3% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* (Win only)

Race 4: 38.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2* - 16/1 – 8/1

Race 5: 72.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 7/4*

Race 6: 97.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 & 7/4 (Fav W/D)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (6.30): 10 (Kings Academy), 2 (Heir Of Excitement), 4 (Laqab) & 1 (Zlatan)

Leg 2 (7.00): 3 (New Society) & 5 (Alfred Richardson)

Leg 3 (7.30): 3 (Victory Command) & 1 (Celebrity Dancer)

Leg 4 (8.00): 9 (Foxtrot Night), 3 (Henley) & 7 (Alsvinder)

Leg 5 (8.30): 10 (Sempre Presto), 9 (Shes Queen) & 3 (Savannah Moon)

Leg 6 (9.00): 2 (Angels) & 1 (Breaking Records)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.30: Four-year-olds have won six of the eleven races contested during the last twelve years, whilst nine gold medallists carried nine stones or more. Vintage representatives completely dominated the finish two years ago, with two of the three horses filling the frame carrying the relevant weights.  KINGS ACADEMY (drawn 4/17 – low numbers best at Pontefract) is close enough to the rail to figure prominently, whilst others to consider include HEIR OF EXCITEMENT (10), LAQAB (2) and ZLATAN (7) in the most difficult race on the card to assess for openers.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders.

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Pontfract record of the four course winners in the opening event:

1/4—Pumaflor (good)

2/12—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/5—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/4—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

 

7.00: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, with NEW SOCIETY and ALFRED RICHARDSON potentially representing the vintage to good effect this time around.  The two horses are listed in order of preference, though five-year-old ICELAND has attracted overnight support which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have claimed eight of the last ten contests, whilst eight of the last fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Pontefract record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/5—Croquembouche (good)

1/2—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

1/2—Icefall (good to firm)

 

7.30: I highlighted Mark Johnston’s (successful) 5/1 chance Rufus King to big effect twelve months ago and with the trainer coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around, VICTORY COMMAND is the first nomination for the team sheet.  I don’t possess quite the same enthusiasm as I did last year, mainly because of the declaration of CELEBRITY DANCER who scored here on debut under soft conditions.  Although “good to firm” was the call by the officials first thing this morning, rain is set to hit Pontefract Park whereby you might want to take that statement with the proverbial pinch of salt.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by since the last two favourites scored for Mark Johnston. Eight of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst horses returned at a top price of 9/2 have secured eight of the eleven contests.

Pontefract record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Celebrity Dancer (soft)

 

8.00: Much depends on which way the wind blows here in terms of how much rain falls throughout the day.  Rain would very much suit FOXTROT KNIGHT and having to declare my cards 13 hours in advance of the contest, I will take a chance that enough of the wet stuff will emerge to increase his chance.  Others to consider include ALSVINDER (cautionary note; performs better on A/W surfaces) and HENLEY.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/2 market leader was ‘short headed’ before last year’s favourite made amends by going one better that the same price.

Pontefract record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Foxtrot Knight (soft)

2/4—Grandad’s World (good & good to soft)

 

8.30: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals whereby it is surprising to say the least that just two vintage raiders have been declared this time around.   SEMPRE PRESTO and SHES QUEEN should both be there or thereabouts as the jockeys raise their whips though if rain falls to half decent effect, SAVANNAH MOON would have to enter calculations.

Favourite factor: Three winning favourites have been recorded via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, with four of the last eight market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.

Pontefract record of the course winner in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/1—Savannah Moon (soft)

 

9.00: ANGELS and BREAKING RECORDS should have the finish to themselves and with Tim Easterby in high spirits after his victory in the National Stakes at Sandown last night, the trainer could be partying the night away with ANGELS having added to the tally in more ‘local’ surroundings.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new contest on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

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Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 28th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*

Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)

Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up.  It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day.  Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event.  Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George.  One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.

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Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/1—Top Notch (soft)

1/2—O O Seven (soft)

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared.  It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far.  Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.

Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:

2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)

2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)

1/4—Special Tiara (good)

 

3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER.  The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:

1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/4—Benbens (good to soft)

1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)

3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016

 

4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years.  WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)

2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

4.40:  Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/3—Silverhow (soft)

 

Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:

1/1--  Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year

1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)

1/2—Landin (good)

1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

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Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.