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Racing Insights, 20th February 2021

Saturday's free feature is the excellent Trainer/Jockey combo stats report whilst the free races of the day are...

  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 5.30 Newcastle

And it's the Trainer/Jockey combo stats report that I'm looking at today, using the one year from option to see if we can find an E/W bet for ourselves from one of these two runners...

Potters Legend runs in a Grade 3 handicap chase over 3m4.5f, whilst Potters Hedger tackles a Class 2 handicap hurdle over 3m0.5f.

From a place perspective, recent trainer form offers some hope as Lucy Wadham's chasers have won 4 and placed in 4 of the last 17 races for a place strike rate of just under 50%, whilst over the last five weeks, her hurdlers have finished 1211P12. The chase comes first at the meeting and it's a tough race...

This 11 yr old is having a decent season so far since returning from an eight month break back in November, when winning on his seasonal debut over 3m0.5f in a Class 2 chase at Warwick. He was then only beaten by a length in an attritional Grade 3 contest at Cheltenham three weeks later.

He then had three more weeks rest prior to running at Sandown, but ended up almost 10 lengths off the pace, partly but not wholly down to being badly hampered on the bend and his last appearance came here at Haydock almost a month ago when a runner-up in a heavy ground 3m2f Grade 2 race. He was admittedly some 16 lengths behind the impressive hat-trick completing Royale Pagaille that day, but had the three other finishers 7, 22 and 54 lengths further back

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He won't be meeting a 156-rated runner here today, this is a slight drop in class and he has been eased a couple of pounds in the weights.

Stat-wise, his place record under similar conditions to today look like this..

In addition to the above , he has made the frame 10 times from 20 races within a month of his last run, in 8 of 13 during the months of January to March and in 4 of 9 with Jack Quinlan in the saddle.

In the longer distance contests here at Haydock in the mud, it has been more tactically astute for horses to be up with the pace and the further back in the field that a horse sits, the more difficult they find it to win.

Sadly for Potters Legend, here's where he might come unstuck (as well as this being a decent contest), as he has been held up in six of his last seven outings, this pace map of the race doesn't make good reading for his chances...

*

And now kick forward 70 minutes for the second "Potters" horse...

Two wins, two places and two "miles off" finishes for this one in his past half dozen contests suggests he's either going to be there or thereabouts or he's going to be well beaten.

A 10-length winner over 3m2f on soft ground at Warwick (Class 3) last March was his swansong for the season before being rested for eight months. He hit the ground running upon his return going down by just half a length at Lingfield (2m7f, C3, soft) in a race that has worked out fairly well since, as the first four home that day have 5 wins and a place from 10 outings, including two wins and a place from five in this Class 2 grade.

After that narrow defeat, he had a bit of a stinker up at Class 2 off a mark of 127 at Sandown, but bounced back well next/last time out when winning here at Haydock off the same mark (albeit at Class 3) over 3m1f on heavy ground. He slightly down in trip here, but does carry 5lbs more for that win LTO when visored for the first time.

His place record under today's conditions includes...

...plus 11 places from 20 over hurdles, 9 from 13 going left handed, 6 from 11 under Jack Quinlan, 6 from 10 within a month of his last run, 6 from 9 during Jan-March and if it gets heavy he has been placed in 4 of 5 runs on heavy ground. The visor is retained here and he won (here LTO) the only other time he wore it.

I already mentioned earlier above pace/race positioning and here's how this group normally run...

...which means he could be well placed to make the frame if nothing else. The key here might be not letting Bushypark run away with it.

Summary

Jack (Quinlan) and Lucy (Wadham) team up with two "Potters" here at Haydock, but I don't see either winning, if I'm honest. Of the two, the latter (Hedger) stands the better chance and I'd not be massively surprised if he squeezes into the frame. Things might need to fall his way a little and I think he might not quite be as good as the likes of Everglow or Farrants Way, but yes Potters Hedger could make the frame.

As for Potters Legend, I like him, but not for this race. He's decent, but this is a Grade 3, so they're all decent. I think if he finished fifth, the team could be happy with their work, but I don't see him making the frame. If I did have a punt in this race, I'd side with Venus Williams' Achille, who looks a bit long at 9/1.

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.25 Haydock : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 16/5 (Keen behind leaders, took closer order travelling well 2f out, ridden and led just over 1f out, kept on well)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard and we see a 7 yr old gelding coming off the back of two good runs and hailing from an in-form yard (we had a Haydock winner with Ed de Giles yesterday too).

I spoke about the trainer's form yesterday, so having had just the one (winning) runner yesterday, there's no need to go back over it, the numbers speak for themselves.

Zlatan was only beaten by a length staying on over 1m2f last time out on ground that was possibly a little too quick for him eleven days ago. The extra yardage and the cut in the ground here might just be enough for him to go one better this afternoon and his trainer does like to send horses back out fairly after a decent effort.

In fact, since the start of 2016, Ed de Giles' handicappers sent back out within a fortnight of a top three finish LTO are 30 from 82 (36.6% SR) for 47.93pts (+58.5% ROI) at odds of 7/1 or shorter, including...

  • 22/58 (37.9%) for 30.19pts (+52.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 23.28pts (+70.5%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 12/34 (35.3%) for 13.46pts (+39.6%) at Class 5

...whilst LTO runners-up competing for less than £4k are 13 from 25 (52% ROI) for 25.1pts (+100.4% ROI), all at Class 5 or worse including 5 from 14 at this grade...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.00 Hamilton : Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Overall leader centre, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, soon edged left, kept on one pace)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

An initial glance at the racecard shows a horse that has been running well and now drops two classes after finishing fourth 20 days ago. We also see immediately that Ed de Giles has his string in decent nick with 3 runners and 3 placers from 14 in the past month.

The bottom of the card tells you how our Speed Ratings rank the runners, as this is a good pointer over shorter trips.

And then we take a look at the pace/draw heatmap and for this type of contest, he's probably been drawn as well as he could be for his normal style of running...

...whilst Instant Expert (I usually start with place form over the last 2yrs, but feel free to use your own parameters) shows a line of green, suggesting we should at least be there or thereabouts today...

All of which is possibly enough to warrant a bet, but I'll wrap up with a closer look at the horse's suitability for the task ahead, starting with a look at his overall record in handicaps to date...

...which includes of relevance today...

  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 24.84pts (+146.1%) at 1-25 days since last run
  • 7/14 (50%) for 20.21pts (+144.3%) over 6 furlongs
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 19.03pts (+146.4%) at 5/1 or shorter
  • 6/13 (46.1%) for 13.94pts (+107.2%) off a mark (OR) of 75-89
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.74pts (+186%) at Class 4

...whilst running over a 6f trip off a mark of 75-89 at 5/1 or shorter within 25 days of his last run, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 11.13pts (+185.5% ROI), with a 2 from 3 record at Class 4 and a runner-up finish in his sole defeat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday although Bet365 were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, hung left and pressed inside final furlong, headed close home, beaten by a head). After a rough few days, that was hard to take, but we dust ourselves down and go again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cruising @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

The racecard says...

So, let's see how the above could have a bearing on today's contest...

The speed rating is, as always, self-explanatory, second only to a runner half our price and now on to the three highlighted Report Angles (my settings are always 20%+ wins, A/E of 1.25+ and IV of 1.5+) which are, as you know, a 24-month window on performance.

From the top working down...Jockey 14-day form (14 on the card, too) : Paul Mulrennan is riding really well right now and had 3 winners from 8 yesterday at Hamilton.  And of his 13/56 fortnightly record, all were on grass and he is 8/31 ( 25.8% SR) over 7f or shorter.

Then the Trainer/Jockey Combo... Paul's 6 from 18 over the last 12 months for trainer David Brown actually looks like this in 2020...

including...

  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.84pts (+198%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.35pts (+76.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (73.3%) with LTO winners...

...leading us nicely to the third angle...David Brown's LTO winners, who more long-term ie since the start of 2016 in handicaps of 9 furlongs or shorter are...

from which they have the following relevant records...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 35.52pts (+82.6%) from male runners
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 39.35pts (+87.5%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.57pts (+89.6%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+136.3%) on the Flat
  • and 5/20 (25%) for 7.69pts (+38.5%) at Class 5

...and if you wanted a composite micro based around those categories above ie sex, distance and field size, you could try males over 5-7f in 6-10 runner contests for ...

...including 5/11 (45.5%) on the Flat and 5/9 (55.6%) at Class 5 and 22/3 (66.6% SR) for 14.24pts (+474.6% ROI) in Class 5 contests on the Flat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Cruising @ 13/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.00 Chelmsford : Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Went left start, disputed lead until went on over 2f out, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly to win by three lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

A relatively simple approach today with a 3 yr old filly seeking a hat trick (albeit after 102 days off track) after wins over both this 7f trip and also at 6f on the tapeta earlier this year. 102 days is a decent break and you do worry if horses are rusty after a layoff, but the rest of the field have all been inactive for at least ten weeks longer than our pick and our girl is trained by Mark Johnston, who has certainly hit the ground running as shown by this graphic...

...but I think that's fairly common knowledge right now.

As with yesterday, my way in to the race was once again the Geegeez racecard and a highlighted Query Tool angle of mine...

So we see our filly is in good form as I said at the start, both trainer have jockey have the green C5 icon denoting a good record at this venue and this is backed up by my own imaginatively-titled angle "Haydock Flat". This essentially highlights whenever any of a half dozen of trainers including Mark Johnston have runners in handicaps here at Haydock.

And Mark makes this list because his runners in such contests over trips of 7 to 12 furlongs have the following record over the last six seasons...

...from which, the following is relevant today...

  • 16 from 65 (24.6%) for 29.8pts (+45.8%) sent off at 7/4 to 7/1
  • 15/90 (16.6%) for 28.5pts (+31.6%) from 3 yr olds
  • 15/79 (19%) for 47.7pts (+60.4%) in races worth up to £10.5k
  • 13/74 (17.6%) for 36.5pts (+49.3%) in 3yo only contests
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 23.85pts (+51.8%) during the last two seasons
  • 6/35 (17.1%) for 10.3pts (+29.4%) from those stepping up in class
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 46.9pts (+173.8%) from females
  • 6/19 (31.8%) for 27.4pts (+144.4%) with LTO winners
  • and 3/7 942.9%) for 17.1pts (+244.4%) with Silvestre de Sousa in the saddle.

Now I do like to combine sets of data like those above to form a composite angle, but you have to be careful not to dilute the sample size too far. The smaller that sample becomes, the more open you become to the figures being distorted by chance, so I'm just going to look at the first three subsets since the start of the 2017 campaign, which looks like...

...and with an A/E of 1.69, as trike rate of 35%, a Betfair SP ROI in excess of 70% and an average win price in our ballpark, this is something I'm happy with, especially as those numbers include 6 winners from 18 in 3yo handicaps and 3 winners from 6 for the female runners...

...which all pointed me towards...a 1pt win bet on Mountain Brave @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, SkyBet and Hills at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!