Posts

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st March

HAYDOCK – MARCH 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £42.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 73.2% units went through – 3/1 & 10/11*

Race 2: 79.0% of the remaining units when through – 1/14* (Win only)

Race 3: 64.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* & 9/4

Race 4: 18.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 16/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 42.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 52.5% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* (Win only)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Midnight Shadow) & 3 (Think Ahead)

Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Chicago Lady), 5 (Touch Of Velvett) & 2 (Bitumen Belle)

Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Hills Of Dubai), 5 (Just Georgie) & 4 (Bako De La Saulaie)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Snougar), 3 (Absolutely Dylan) & 2 (Doc Carver)

Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Until Winning), 8 (Swing Hard) & 6 (Whiskey Chaser)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Calipso Collonges) & 3 (Champagne George)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: THINK AHEAD looks the only logical danger to MIDNIGHT SHADOW who is remaining very firm around the 1/2 mark at the time of writing.  Donald Whillans has his team in good form (3/6 of late) but Keyboard Gangster probably needs the favourite to find trouble negotiating the obstacles to score here whilst possibly finding Think Ahead difficult to pass at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.40: The two outsiders in the trade press are going to be included in my Placepot mix today; despite their 7/1 & 25/1 quotes. There has been some support for TOUCH OF VELVETT overnight, whilst Phil Kirby (BITUMEN BELLE) has rarely had his runners in better form, with five of his last eleven runners having prevailed.  For all that, CHICAGO LADY is the more logical winner of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Haydock card.

 

3.15: Recent winners HILLS OF DUBAI and JUST GEORGIE represent some value down at the bottom of the weights, whilst BAKO DE LA SAULAIE also receives concessions from the other pair in the ‘short field’ line-up.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites (5/2 & 7/4) have prevailed this far.

 

3.50: SNOUGAR is another live Donald McCain raider on the card (see stats below) and Donald’s Arakan gelding can follow up his recent soft ground Ayr victory successfully in this grade/company.  The pick of the opposition arguably includes ABSOLUTELY DYLAN and DOC CARVER.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Haydock programme.

 

4.20: Jonjo O’Neill ‘boasts’ stats of just 5/96 in the NH sector in 2018 whereby I will pass over his raider Spookydooky this afternoon in favour of UNTIL WINNING, SWING HARD and WHISKEY CHASER.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Solid Strike in a competitive (if ordinary) contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the only course winner on the Placepot card:

1/2—Whiskey Chaser (heavy)

 

4.55: This contest should be relatively plain sailing for CALIPSO COLLONGES though thanks to another success yesterday, I can afford to add a another runners into the Placepot equation in case a fencing error stops the odds on market leader in his tracks.  CHAMPAGNE GEORGE receives the alternative vote.

Favourite factor: Both 5/1 and 1/2 market leaders are still on the missing list after failing to reach the frame thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stats relating to Haydock’s card on Wednesday:

Donald McCain has only saddled more winners at Bangor (144), Sedgefield (97) and Carlisle (68) than the trainer has secured at Haydock (65) down the years.

Donald’s ratio this season at the track  is outstanding, boasting a ratio of 8/17 (47% strike rate), stats which have produced 15 points of level stake profit.

Donald saddles five runners today: Chicago Lady (2.40), Hills Of Dubai (3.15), Snougar (3.50), Whiskey Chaser (4.20) & Tailor Tom (4.55)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 17th February

ASCOT – FEBRUARY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £76.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 5 (Dame De Compagne)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Ms Parfois), 1 (Black Corton) & 3 (Mount News)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Tenor Nivernais), 1 (Gold Present) & 3 (Royal Encore)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (Kildisart), 7 (Le Patriote) & 5 (Dieg Man)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Coney Island) & 5 (Top Notch)

Leg 6 (4.10): 7 (Ballyheigue Bay), 11 (Laugharne) & 2 (Templeross)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests between them. Paul Nicholls held two options for CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK today and it’s interesting to note that the other race was an event at Wincanton which Paul has won for each of the last five years, now leaving the trainer without a runner in that contest.  Such a move is clear indication that Paul was ready to throw his five-year-old Black Sam Bellamy gelding into this tougher assignment following two (soft and heavy ground) victories at Wincanton thus far.  Six-year-old Count Meribel is not easily overlooked, though the Twiston-Davies raider has to overcome a slightly disappointing effort the last day, albeit in decent company.  Accordingly, DAME DE COMPAGNE (receives ten pounds from Captain Cattistock) is offered up as the main threat to the marginal selection in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Count Meribel (good to soft)

 

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 19 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event and with only a 33/1 chance in opposition to three vintage representatives, the trend looks set to be extended.  This is going to be a big day for Ruth Jefferson, with two highly regarded inmates strutting their stuff down south following Ruth‘s first winner at Kelso on Thursday.  MOUNT NEWS is first up on behalf of the stable and whilst possessing plenty of undoubted ability, Ruth’s Presenting gelding will need to be a little sharper with his fencing to trouble to front two in the market I fancy.  That said, I will add MOUNT NEWS into my Placepot permutation alongside MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON who are listed in order of preference, mainly because of the seven pound concession from one to t’other.  There is also the fact that Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong (recent ratio of 9/21) at present, notwithstanding the fact that Ms Parfois was oh so impressive in each of her victories at Cheltenham, Newbury at Warwick of late.  In truth, I am also influenced by the 2/1 quote for MS PARFOIS over and above even money about Black Corton.

Favourite factor: The last 19 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2.  10 favourites secured Placepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

 

2.25: Anyone who witnessed the thirty length victory of TENOR NIVERNAIS in this event on soft ground last year cannot help but be attracted to the 7/1 odds (generally on offer) about the Venetia Williams raider. Placepot inclusion is taken as read accordingly, whilst 14/1 about the other Anthony Honeyball raider (REGAL ENCORE) on the card also catches the eye. Anthony has already saddled a winner here at Ascot this season with his level stake profit at the track standing at 13 points.  That said, I fully respect the chance of GOLD PRESENT who could yet be anything in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gold Present (good to soft)

2/4—Tenor Niovernais (2 x soft)

1/4—Royal Encore (good to soft)

1/3—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

 

3.00: Ten of the last twelve winners (including nine of the last ten gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals. Taking the facts and stats into account, I’m offering KILDISART, LE PATRIOTE and DIG MAN against the other six contenders, the trio having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Kildisart (good to soft)

 

3.35: It goes without saying that it is difficult to leave Cue Card out of the equation, especially as he has won this event on his only two starts in the contest in 2013 and again last year.  Time moves against us all unfortunately and if there was just one horse barring the way for Colin Tizzard’s grand servant sentiment might have ruled the day, though with four rapidly improving seven-year-olds in the contest, that option is not a variable with Cue Card now showing distinct signs of wear and tear. Speredek was included in the afore mentioned quartet out of sheer admiration for a horse that does not know the meaning of defeat though on this occasion, CONEY ISLAND, TOP NOTCH and WAITING PATENTLY are three mightily impressive types to take on.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though much could change by the time that flag fall arrives!  Barry Geraghty is responsible for giving the Irish raider the marginal call, given that the horse looked beaten the last day but Barry insisted that he was merely idling, giving the impression that there was much more to come from the Flemensfirth gelding, though there needs to be in this company!  In terms of potential future champions, this is the most exhilarating renewal of this event since the old king died.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: 14 of the 19 market leaders during the study period claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include thirteen successful market leaders. Ten of the last twelve favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:

1/1—Coney Isalnd (good to soft)

2/2—Cue Card (2 x soft)

3/3—Top Notch (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.10: The booking of James Bowen aboard BALLYHEIGUE BAY catches the eye and no mistake, as does the amount of cash waiting in the positive queue, just in case potential layers miss the trainer/jockey combination, given that Chris Gordon landed another decent prize with Tara Bridge at Sandown yesterday.  Others for the mix include TEMPLEROSS, BUCKLE STREET and the potential ‘dark horse’ in the contest LAUGHARNE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have claimed bronze medals when securing Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners--Nicky Henderson—6/38 (loss of 9 points) – 30/154 (loss of 39)

4—Gary Moore (3/20 – loss of 5) – 8/82 – loss of 25

4—David Pipe (0/1) – 9/59 – loss of 3

3—Kim Bailey (1/5 – loss of 2) – 3/32 – loss of 23)

3—Martin Keighley (First runners at Ascot this season) – 1/12 +2

3—Paul Nicholls (2/11 – loss of 5) – 29/152 – loss of 22)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 1/8 +13

2—Ruth Jefferson (First ever runners at Ascot)

2—Suzy Smith (0/5) – 1/14 – loss of 7

2—Colin Tizzard (0/15) – 8/63 – loss of 3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 5) – 2/46 – loss of 35

2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Ascot this season) – 0/10)

2—Evan Williams (0/4) – 3/46 – loss of 21

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £95.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Wincanton: £66.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £55.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £61.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 20th January

ASCOT – JANUARY 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Nayati) & 2 (Oistrakh Le Noir)

Leg 2 (1.15): 5 (Red Devil Star), 6 (Uhlan Bute) & 1 (Chef D’Equipe)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Le Bag Au Roi), 5 (Midnight Tune) & 2 (Dusky Legend)

Leg 4 (2.25): 11 (Oxwich Bay), 6 (Night Of Sin) & 8 (Jabulani)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Acting Lass), 6 (Guitar Pete) & 1 (Tenor Nivernais)

Leg 6 (3.35): 5 (Un De Sceaux) & 1 (Brain Power)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.40: Alan King has won the last two renewals when represented whereby the chance of NAYATI is thoroughly respected.  That said, Ben Pauling has a typical (import) type here in OISTRAKH LE NOIR for a set of owners who have enjoyed more than their fair share of success in recent years. Conditions will not pose a problem for either horse from what we have witnessed to date and though I wouldn’t particularly care to choose between the two at the time of writing, both names go into the Placepot mix without hesitation.  There is a level of support on the exchanges for Gary Moore’s newcomer Et Moir Alors, though Gary’s Kap Rock gelding would do amazingly well to give the first mentioned pair experience and a beating, even in receipt of six pounds from the relevant rivals.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine renewals have been won by market leaders whilst two horses returned at 100/30 prevailed in the first two contests.

 

1.15: Philip Hobbs has been enduring a poor run of form by his high standards since Christmas, despite landing a treble at Sandown/Wincanton a fortnight ago.  Just one of his subsequent 13 horses have won and the fact that an average of less than one runner a day during the period tells you all you need to know.  That said, CHEF D’EQUIPE has Placepot credentials for all to see, albeit the likes of (good to soft) course winner RED DEVIL STAR and (to a fashion) UHLAN BUTE are preferred from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite was one of two runners that failed to complete the course.  Horses filled the Placepot frame at odds of 14/1, 5/1 and 16/1 two years ago in the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/4—Red Devil Star (good to soft)

1.50: Two in form trainers clash here and no mistake, naming Anthony Honeyball (MIDNIGHT TUNE) and Warren Greatrex (LE BAG AU ROI) as the handlers who have rarely had their horses in better form down the years, a statement which certainly applies to Anthony (four of his last six runners have won) for sure.  DUSKY LEGEND completes my trio against the remaining three contenders in this Grade 2 contest which is confined to mares.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective to date, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Graceful Legend (good to soft)

2.25: Five-year-olds came to the gig on a four-timer in the most recent renewal, with representatives claiming silver and bronze medals when both returned at 10/1.  Vintage representatives are 6/1 to get back to winning ways here before the form book is consulted, with both JABULANI and NIGHT OF SIN boasting each way claims from my viewpoint.  Whether either horse can keep tabs on six-year-old OXWICH BAY at the business end of proceedings remains to be seen. Out of interest, six-year-olds have won the other three contests during the last seven years, stats which also bring Crossed My Mind and Jenkins into the equation.
Favourite factor: Just two of the twelve favourites have obliged to date, whilst only three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/3—Air Horse One (soft)

 

3.00: There is evidence of overnight support at a double figure price for TENOR NIVERNAIS which comes as no surprise given the (soft) conditions and any further rain can only enhance his chance.  The weight stats are against the Venetia Williams raider however, the last horse having carried 11-12 to victory back in 2008.  I still fancy his chance from a Placepot perspective however, whilst those on Aidan Coleman’s mount at fancy prices will certainly get a decent run for their win and place investments from my viewpoint.  Six of the last seven winners have carried 11-3 or less, a factor which points yours truly in the direction of ACTING LASS and GUITAR PETE as potential winners of the contest. The latter named Nicky Richards northern raider represents the yard which won both of the 2011/12 renewals with Tatenen.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites during the last decade have claimed Placepot positions, though winning favourites during the period were only conspicuous by their absence.  Indeed, three of the last five winners were returned at 25/1, 22/1 and 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

2/4—Tenor Nivernais (2 x soft)

1/2—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/4—Fortunate George (good to soft)

3.35: Paul Nicholls (SAN BENEDETO) has saddled four of the last nine winners of this Grade 1 event (three of which were returned as favourites), though Willie Mullins has ‘interrupted the trainer trend’ these last two years having won with UN DE SCEAUX on both occasions.  Paul suggested a while ago that he was scaling back on his number of runners this season and so it has proved in recent weeks, continuing today with just the one declaration on the Ascot card who is something of a no-hoper according to media types.  At 25/1 (thereabouts), SAN BENEDETO could provide forecast fodder from my viewpoint, especially if BRAIN POWER fails to complete the course again.  Otherwise, UN DE SCEAUX should have too many guns close home for Nicky Henderson’s talented seven-year-old, especially at level weights.
Favourite factor: 15 of the 17 winners since the turn of the Millennium have been returned at 5/1 or less, stats which include nine successful favourites.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/3—San Benedeto (good)

1/1—Un De Sceaux (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/22 – loss of 11 points) – 38/182 – loss of 45

5—Harry Fry (1/11 – loss of 7) – 13/53 – marginal profit

3—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 7/69 +7

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 2) – 4/55 – loss of 24

3—Venetia Williams (0/6) – 14/93 +31

2—Kim Bailey (0/3) – 4/35 – loss of 3

2—Alan King (1/11 – loss of 4) – 12/90 +12

2—Ben Pauling (2/7 +3) -0 3/21 – loss of 2

2—Lucinda Russell (First runenrs at Ascot this season) – 1/4 +2

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £243.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Taunton: £116.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £70.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th December

NEWBURY - DECEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,747.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 6 (Nayati) & 2 (Acaro)

Leg 2 (12.40): 6 (Royal Ruby) & 2 (First Flow)

Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Saint Calvados), 3 (Chirico Vallis) 4 (Remiluc) & 2 (Got Away)

Leg 4 (1.50): 8 (Brave Eagle) & 5 (Huntsman Son)

Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Knockanrawley), 9 (Henllan Harri) & 7 (Wuff)

Leg 6 (3.00): 5 (Way Back Then), 6 (Dame Rose) & 3 (Mullachys Hill)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Alan King’s runners are still blowing a little too hot and cold for my liking but the trainer has saddled four winners of late and with support coming in for his soft ground flat winner NAYATI, it would be churlish to ignore the claims of Wayne Hutchinson’s mount, especially from a Placepot perspective.  Robert Walford has been on a crest of the wave by comparison whereby I have little (or no) hesitation in nominating ACARO as the main threat.  Special Relation might have to be a well above average type to return with a win after a debut fall at Market Rasen, irrespective of how well he was travelling at the time.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include six successful favourites from a win perspective.

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson has dominated this event to the point where Nicky’s record is surely the best record in any race under either code.  Nicky comes into the race on a seven timer having won nine renewals during the last decade.  It’s surprising to find that the only horse which failed to win during the sensational run was My Tent Or Yours back in 2012.  Nicky saddles ROYAL RUBY this time around, with connections seemingly having Kim Bailey’s soft ground Lingfield winner FIRST FLOW to beat.  Given the results in recent years, I will be startled if the differential in prices (6/4 – 5/2) was in place by flag fall, especially with the projected favourite (First Flow) having to give ROYAL RUBY five pounds.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last nine renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.  Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion, whilst eight favourites have secured Placepot positions during the longer period.

 

1.15: Harry Whittington remains an unbelievably underrated trainer in my book (two of his last three runners have won) and his French import SAINT CALVADOS would be the call if asked to name the winner of this contest.  A winner of three of his four races on the continent, Aidan Coleman’s mount would be the call but given that this is the ‘win only’ event on this Placepot card, I would not like to miss out on what might prove to be a really good dividend by ignoring the other three contenders.  That said personally, I will be adding an additional wager by banking on SAINT CALVADOS in this event (alongside the other runners = 72 additional bets), just in case Harry works the oracle again.
Favourite factor: This was deemed to be a new race on the card three years ago as the contest was reduced in trip, with the even money favourite finishing last of the three finishers the first year, before the following 5/2 market leader made amends.  Layers had the last laugh twelve months ago however, when the 5/6 favourite was the only horse in the field not to complete the course.  It should not be forgotten that Cue Card won this race back in 2011 over the additional quarter of a mile as the race was contested in those days.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/5—Remiluc (soft)

 

1.50:  Nicky Henderson’s second (and last) runner on the card is BRAVE EAGLE who is attempting to become the fifth consecutive five-year-old winner of this event.  Dropped a couple of pounds now, Nico’s mount will have few better chances of building on a previous soft ground victory, with HUNTSMAN SON nominated as the main danger.  Nick Williams has his team in fine order (as is so often the case) whereby the chance for Diable De Sivola demands plenty of respect.  That all said, there will be worse outsiders on the card than proven soft/heavy ground performer Sir Antony Browne.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners at 11/8 & 13/8) via five contests.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Sir Antony Browne (good to soft)

1/2—Wilde Blue Yonder (good to soft)

1/2—Theligny (good to soft – winner of this race last year)

 

2.25: The 'Mandarin' is nothing like the race it once was with six-year-olds having won three of the last six contests, though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  From a Placepot perspective, there seems no other place to start than with the only course winner in the line up namely KNOCKANRAWLEY, especially with trainer Kim Bailey having won with five of his last seventeen runners which at this time of year, is always a decent ratio to boast.  Having finished ‘in the three’ in 7/8 races on soft ground, KNOCKANRAWLEY has not matched that effort once via three assignments under heavy conditions, though Kim’s nine-year-old should reach the frame today at the very least in this grade/company.  HENLLAN HARRI disappointed in the ‘Badger’ at Wincanton the last day but this is likely to be run at something of a ‘married man’s gallop’ which will suit this dour stayer.  A heavy ground winner in the past, ‘Harri’ is marginally preferred to WUFF as the main threat to the tentative selection.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last seven renewals, though they were the only market leaders to secure Placepot positions during the period.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Mandarin’:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/2—Knockanrawley

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of the Challow Hurdle, with only an outsider to represent their cause this time around, namely MULLACHYS HILL.  Warren Greatrex is not the type of trainer to casually ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby the declaration is taken seriously by yours truly, especially as underhoof conditions will trouble other runners more than this individual I would wager.  More logical winners in the line up (I grant you) include WAY BACK THEN and DAME ROSE.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Dame Rose (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Alan King (1/16 – loss of 11 points)

2—Kim Bailey (1/2 +2)

2—Tom George (0/5)

2—Nicky Henderson (6/23 +8)

2—Philip Hobbs (3/8 +9)

2—Gary Moore (0/11)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

2—David Pipe (1/4 +4)

2—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 +6)

2—Dan Skelton (1/4 +3)

2—Colin Tizzard (2/12 loss of 2 points)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/2)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: Meeting abandoned

Taunton: £42.50 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £279.10 – 2 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd December

ASCOT - DECEMBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £144.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 7 (Christmas In April), 9 (Comely) & 13 (One Of Us)

Leg 2 (1.15): 3 (Adrien Du Pont) & 1 (Coney Island)

Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Red Devil Star), 4 (Poker School), 3 (Pougne Bobbi) & 7 (Theo’s Charm)

Leg 4 (2.25): 9 (Unowwhatimeanharry) & 6 (The Worlds End)

Leg 5 (3.00): 13 (Fortunate George), 11 (Walk In The Mill), 14 (Icing On The Cake) & 9 (On Tour)

Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Verdana Blue), 5 (Charli Parcs) & 10 (Caid Du Lin)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Just the seven renewals to date though that said, five-year-olds have won six of the seven events (12/1-7/1-6/1-6/1-9/2-3/1*) whilst securing the forecast positions on two occasions (9/2 & 8/1--6/1 & 14/1) and the first and third horses home (3/1 & 16/1) five years ago.  The pick of this year's three vintage representatives could prove to be COMELY, CHRISTMAS IN APRIL (who must be one one very confused horse) and ONE OF US.  The latter named raider is saddled by Nick Williams who has enjoyed this day at Ascot many times via Reve De Sivola (see trainers stats below), whilst the first named Nicky Henderson pair have chances on the form book for all to see.  Ned Curtis rides CHRISTMAS IN APRIL and the jockey will be champing at the bit to ride a winner having been aboard a favourite (Casablanca Mix) who was in cruise control at the last obstacle at Exeter the other day (seven lengths clear) when tumbling over. Forgetthesmalltalk is nominated as the alternative option but not all of Alan King’s runners are going well at present, a stat which is highlighted by the fact only one of Alan’s last five favourites has prevailed.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via one gold and two silver medals.

1.15: Five-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals and always one for keeping tabs on this type of information, Paul Nicholls saddles his good to soft course winner ADRIEN DU PONT with a live chance this afternoon. Yes, Paul’s Fontwell winner is upped in class again on only his third start over the bigger obstacles, but the trainer knows more about the game than I ever will and if it’s good enough for Paul who would have held any number of options for the contest, then it is good enough for me.  I’ve grown tired (at last) of giving MORE THAN THAT another chance though to put the record straight (when other media commentators just spout out words with using facts to back them up), outsiders of three since the end of October have won three of the eighteen races they have contested, stats which show only a fractional loss to level stakes, the winners having scored at 8/1, 4/1 & 9/4.  A certain ‘betting ring’ conveyor of opinions needs to add facts to statements, rather than just spouting out words that can offer punters a ‘bum steer’.  That leaves us with the projected favourite (market leaders have a good record as you can see below) who rightly heads the betting, as CONEY ISLAND has less questions to answer than his two rivals in terms of experience/current form/conditions of the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five (10/11—4/5--5/4**--6/5--Evens) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second event:

1/1—Adrien Du Pont (good to soft)

 

1.50: There will be worse outsiders on the Ascot card today than course winner RED DEVIL STAR from my viewpoint, especially with Suzy Smith having lowered the colours of leading trainers on many occasions down the years.  Last year’s winner POKER SCHOOL will encounter similar conditions today and with a decent five pound claimer in the plate, Ian’s Gold Well representative is effectively four pounds better in twelve months on.  Others to consider in a competitive event include POUGNE BOBBI and THEO’S CHARM.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourite has secured a Placepot position thus far without winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Poker School (good to soft)

1/3—Red Devil Star (good to soft)

2.25: For all that plenty of horses deserve their respective places in the line up, last year’s winner UNOWHATIMEANHARRY will take plenty of kicking out of the frame here having scored under the same (good to soft conditions) as when successful twelve months ago.  Having won four of his seven races over timber to date, THE WORLDS END is offered as the alternative each way option for those of you that want to take on the favourite who is 15/8 in most books at the time of writing.  On the other hand, 10/1 is a fair price about Tom George’s Stowaway gelding given his Grade 1 victory at Aintree nine months ago.  When the trainer ‘tilts at the windmill’ on the odd occasion, Tom’s runners are not usually too far away when the taps are turned on close home.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured nine of the last 14 contests, whilst 13 of the 15 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge

2/5—Lil Rockerfella (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Thomas Campbell (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Unowhatimeanharry (good to soft)

3.00: Nine of the last 11 winners have carried 11-1 or less with FORTUNATE GEORGE (Emma Lavelle knows how to win these big handicaps), WALK IN THE MILL (trainer Robert Walford has won with three of his last seven runners) and ON TOUR (running off the same attractive mark as when falling at Newbury last time out) all holding realistic claims at each way prices today. The ground might have dried out to much for Yala Enki, whereby the phones could be busy this morning in the Betfair and Paddy Power office with punters attempting to take each way advantage of the relevant 40/1 quotes about ICING ON THE CAKE.
Favourite factor: All manner of results have ensued in recent years but from a toteplacepot perspective, five of the last seven favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/5—Ptit Zig (soft)

1/4—Go Conquer (good)

1/3—Regal Encore (good to soft)

1/1—Yala Enki (soft)

1/1—Bigbadjohn (soft)

1/1—Walk In The Mill (good to soft)

1/3—Fortunate Gorge (good to soft)

3.35: Five-year-olds have secured seven of the 13 renewals of ‘The Ladbroke‘ (albeit the race now carried another title) and last year’s relevant 12/1 winner Brain Power was the first horse mentioned in despatches twelve months ago.  That ‘honour’ is awarded to VERDANA BLUE from the same Nicky Henderson stable.  Form lines relating to ELGIN have worked out well, whilst the speculative call in the contest is classed as CAID LU LIN whose seven pound claimer allows Dr Richard Newland’s 20/1 chance into the Placepot equation.  It’s a tough call to potentially leave Elgin out of the mix but with Alan King’s runners still running a little hot and cold, CHARLI PARCS is preferred having run an absolute stormer in Newbury’s ‘Gerry Feilden’ event last month. All that remains for me is to wish you a wonderful Christmas though for a heads up relating to Kempton's Boxing Day card, I will be back with you tomorrow (Sunday)!
Favourite factor: 
Six of the last 18 favourites have finished in the frame, though only one (7/1) joint favourite has prevailed in the last eight years from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Elgin (good)

1/3—Air Horse One (soft)

1/2—Verdana Blue (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled two or more winners at this corresponding (Saturday) during the last five years - who have runners at Ascot today:

5 winners—Paul Nicholls – 4 runners today

3 winners—Nick Williams – 2 runners today

2 winners—Nicky Henderson – 9 runners today

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £87.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Newcastle (NH): £9,267.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £10.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd December 2017

Friday's Result :

7.15 Wolverhampton : Gracious John @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 Half reared start, chased leader, led 4f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely, all out to win by a short head.

Last one before Christmas is Saturday's...

2.45 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m7.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

...and an ultra-consistent 9 yr old gelding with plenty about him and his trainer to like under today's conditions.

He was a decent 4th of 14 on debut almost 3 yrs ago and in 11 subsequent races has notched up 10 top 3 finishes (PU in the other!), winning on 6 occasions so far. He's 3 from 7 over fences, winning 3 of his last 5 over the past 21 months. He won here at Haydock on heavy ground by 13 lengths in a Class 2 contest 13 months ago, before ending that campaign with a follow up win by 13 lengths at Newbury last December.

He made his reappearance in a Grade 3 race at Cheltenham last month over a longer trip than usual/today and wasn't disgraced in finishing third. In his defence, he was running off the back of a 339-day absence, but now has the benefit of a run under his belt and drops down in both class and trip.

Now, shall we have some numbers? To date, this one has achieved the following of relevance today...

  • 3/8 on soft/heavy (1/4 over fences)
  • 6/7 after a break of less than 6 weeks (3/4 over fences)
  • 4/7 going left handed (2/3 over fences)
  • 3/6 under jockey Richard Johnson (all over fences)
  • 3/4 at Class 2 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in fields of 8-11 runners (1/2 over fences)
  • 2/3 over a 3m trip (all over fences)
  • 2/3 here at Haydock (1/1  over fences)
  • 2/3 in cheekpieces (all over fences)
  • and 1/4 on heavy (1/2 over fences)

And what of his trainer? Well, step forward Philip Hobbs, whose NH handicappers running on heavy during the main jumps season (Oct-Apr) are 22/110 (20% SR) for 29.3pts (+26.6% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 : 18/72 (25%) for 58.5pts (+81.3%)
  • chasers are 11/57 (19.3%) for 17.1pts (+30%)
  • under Richard Johnson : 12/56 (21.4%) for 12.5pts (+22.4%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m1f : 6/30 (20%) for 9.98pts (+33.3%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/24 (20.8%) for 8pts (33.3%)

Plus, it's a Saturday... And that's the day the big guns come to play and the best/most competitive racing takes place, making it generally harder to find a winner. Yet Mr Hobbs' Class 2 handicap chasers are 24/134 (17.9% SR) for 44pts (+32.8% ROI) on Saturdays since 2010 and that's more than his fair share of winners and a decent chunk of profit. In respect of today's contest, those 134 Saturday runners are...

  • 17/68 (25%) for 38.4pts (+56.5%) under Richard Johnson
  • 12/43 (27.9%) for 56.1pts (+130.5%) over 2m7.5f to 3m1f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 6.55pts (+59.6%) on heavy ground.

Want/need more convincing? OK, I've plenty, but I'll cap this off by reminding you that our boy drops down in class to Class 2 today, because since 2011, the Hobbs' Class 2 to 4 handicap chasers dropping down in class are 38/217 (17.5% SR) for 55.8pts (+25.7% ROI), including...

  • with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 26/117 (22.2%) for 65.6pts (+56%)
  • over 2m6.5f to 3m1f : 15/71 (21.1%) for 72.3pts (+101.8%)
  • and over 2m6.5f to 3m1f with Richard Johnson in the saddle : 10/42 (23.8%) for 56.1pts (+133.6%)

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Three Faces West @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Hills & Ladbrokes at 6.00pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 10/3 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 6th December

HAYDOCK – DECEMBER 6

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 5 (Pop Rockstar) & 1 (Thomas Patrick)

Leg 2 (1.20): 4 (Eamon An Cnoic), 3 (Buster Thomas) & 6 (Sainte Ladylime)

Leg 3 (1.55): 2 (Joke Dancer) & 5 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 4 (2.25): 4 (Morney Wing) & 5 (Just Georgie)

Leg 5 (3.00): 4 (Ravensdale), 1 (Duke Debarry) & 5 (Spider’s Bite)

Leg 6 (3.30): 4 (Its’afreebee), 3 (Clan Legend) & 2 (Tawseef)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: POP ROCKSTAR is the call, if for no other reason than every time someone offers 3/1 on the exchanges in the dead of night, the odds are snapped up quickly.  Five of the six runners saddled by the relevant trainer Jonjo O’Neill finished in the frame (exact science) on the opening day of the month, statistics which included two (7/1 & 2/1*) winners.  Tom Lacey boasts a 21% strike rate via his last six winners and Tom’s recent soft ground Exeter winner THOMAS PATRICK should not be far away when the whips are raised above shoulder level.  Un Guet Apens receives the reserve nomination given that James Ewart’s raider is at home on bad ground which is very likely to be in evidence at Haydock today with showers expected to fall on ground which is already described as saturated.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby there is no history of results.

 

1.20: The ‘jury is out’ regarding EAMON AN CNOIC (the only course winner in the field), given that David Pipe’s dual hurdle winner fell too early on his debut to predict how he might jump the bigger obstacles today. As the outsider of the six entries however, Tom Scudamore’s mount attracts the eye whereby if a double price figure emerges this morning, I will probably entertain the odds from a win and place perspective, albeit to minimum stakes.  This is a horror story of a Placepot teaser, with BUSTER THOMAS and SAINTS LADYLIME being added into the permutation, however tentatively.  Those raiders represent the in form yards of Emma Lavelle and Kim Bailey respectively and their entries should be there or thereabouts turning for home.  From there, it’s a case of whose exhaustion level is at its lowest, and that’s only talking about the jockeys!

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Eamon An Cnoic (soft)

 

1.55: There is an element of interest in the 100/1 winner Samson’s Reach in this event, though the booking of Richard Johnson might account from some of the small liquidity which has been accommodated. JOKE DANCER is the call via the three possible winners in the field from my viewpoint, with Sue Smith’s four-year-old taken to get the better of SHIVERMETIMBERS close home.

 

2.25: Charlie Mann has saddled two of his last five runners to winning (25/1 & 9/2) effect and his mud loving raider MORNEY WING looks the safest Placepot option in the contest, notwithstanding his potential gold medal claim in this grade/company.  Certainly Harry Bannister’s mount would be quite a confident Placepot call if all of the ‘dead eight’ runners faced the starter later today.  Should that not be the case, JUST GEORGIE would be added into the equation, given that he has claimed five medals via seven outings on soft/heavy ground to date, albeit no ‘golds’ are in evidence to date via thirteen assignments.  Unfortunately, I have to commit myself before breakfast is served in most dwellings whereby Sue Smith’s representative is included in my Placepot mix.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/6—Granville Island (soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Morney Wing (heavy)

 

3.00: I have left three Placepot positions ‘open’ for this race which would raise serious questions if a non runner was to raise its ugly head, turning the event into a ‘win only’ contest.  RAVENSDALE, DUKE DEBARRY and SPIDER’S BITE would be expected to snare the prize between them given that scenario; hence their Placepot numbers are included in my framework.

 

3.30: The lads and lasses in the trade press have got carried away with their 8/1 ‘offer’ about ITS’AFREEBEE in the lucky last with Dan Skelton’s raider probably being priced up at around half of those odds this morning.  Bridget Andrews still represents good value for her three pound claim and the partnership should be bang in contention at the business end of proceedings, especially under the projected (heavy ground) conditions.  Not only is Its’afreebee the only course winner in the field; both victories here have been gained on this type of ground.  CLAN LEGEND rates as the main threat I’ll wager, though Donald McCain has already saddled four winners this month whereby it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of his recent Kelso winner TAWSEEF.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Its’afreebee (2 x heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Stuart Coltherd (0/1) – 1/8 – loss of 3 points

3—Donald McCain (0/2) – 10/79 – loss of 29 points

2—Nick Alexander (First runners this season) – 0/9

2—Henry Daly (0/1) – 4/30 – loss of 14 points)

2—Sue Smith (1/5 +2) – 11/98 +19

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

40 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ludlow: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield (A/W): £79.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £363.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2017

Tuesday's Result :

12.50 Southwell : Get Rhythm @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, led before 4th, ridden and headed 2 out, soon weakened.

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tawseef @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f on Heavy ground worth £8,122 to the winner...

This 9 yr old gelding has finished 1123141 in his last seven outings and was a winner by some 13 lengths last time out, 25 days ago.

He's trained by Donald McCain whose runners are 7/34 (20.6% SR) over the last 14 days and over the past week, they are 5/24 (20.8% SR), whilst since 2008, the yard is 54/257 (21% SR) for 65.2pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Haydock, including...

  • males are 52/244 (21.3%) for 71.3pts (+29.2%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m4f : 41/170 (24.1%) for 57.5pts (+33.8%)
  • over hurdles : 32/149 (21.5%) for 12.5pts (+8.4%)
  • in handicaps : 21/148 (14.2%) for 36.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Soft or worse ground : 30/143 (21%) for 41.6pts (+29.1%)
  • from October-January : 34/135 (25.2%) for 54.6pts (+40.5%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 36/132 (27.3%) for 96.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 12/60 (20%) for 9.3pts (+15.5%)
  • and 9 yr olds are 4/16 (25%) for 21.7pts (+135.3%)

PLUS...since 2012 Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers who won LTO 1-30 days earlier are 18/91 (19.8% SR) for 32.6pts (+35.9% ROI), including...

  • males at 16/82 (19.5%) for 33.2pts (+40.5%)
  • Class 3 = 5/21 (23.8%) for 21.2pts (+101.1%)
  • and 21-25 days since last run = 7/18 (38.9%) for 36pts (+200%)

AND...more generally since 2012, 4-10 yr old males who won a handicap hurdle last time out by 5 to 15 lengths, 4-45 days earlier are 259/928 (27.9% SR) for 285.5pts (+30.8% ROI) with heavy ground runners winning 31 of 105 (29.5%) for 33.5pts (+31.9%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tawseef @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.10pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 25th November

HAYDOCK - NOVEMBER 25

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £459.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Dynamite Dollars) & 4 (Midnight Shadow)

Leg 2 (12.40): 4 (Belmount), 5 (Courtown Oscar) & 7 (Russe Blanc)

Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Clan Des Obeaux), 5 (Vintage Clouds) & 4 (Born Survivor)

Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Verni), 1 (Clyne) & 3 (El Terremoto)

Leg 5 (2.25): 2 (Zarkandar), 14 (Templeross) & 3 (The Worlds End)

Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 3 (Outlander)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests, with Paul Nicholls having trained one of them back in 2014. Paul has declared vintage raider DYNAMITE DOLLARS with an undeniable chance to get punters off to a flying start at the meeting, especially as Paul’s hat trick seeker seemed to make light of soft conditions the last day when sauntering to an eleven length victory.  Just how bad the ground will be is unknown in the dead of night but either way, it’s difficult to envisage the late May foal finishing out of the ‘short field’ frame.  MIDNIGHT SHADOW represents Sue Smith who has saddled two of her last eight runners to winning effect and taking into account that three of the beaten horses were returned at prices ranging between 40/1 & 150/1, the ratio is impressive enough to consider Sue’s four-year-old representative.  DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, whilst nine of the gold medallists during the period scored at a top price of 7/2.

 

12.40: I’ve talked before about media coverage and its glib comments before in general terms.  Today we’re told by the trade press that BELMOUNT has “a bit to prove regarding the trip and the ground”.  The trip remark is fair comment, but having finished ‘in the three’ four times via five assignments on heavy ground to date (winner of one of those contests), I suggest you take that comment with more than the proverbial pinch of salt!  Nigel Twiston-Davies has won with three of his last eight runners for good measure, whereby BELMOUNT (eight-year-olds have won four of the six contests) is included in the Placepot mix alongside mud loving types such as fellow vintage representative COURTOWN OSCAR and RUSSE BLANC. who will return as a slight darker shade of grey than he appears in the parade ring I’ll wager!  In contrast to the comments about Belmount, Hainan is 0/9 on soft/heavy ground but there’s not a word questioning his ability to act under today’s conditions!  Win, lose or draw the advice is simple.  Don’t take comments literally unless they are backed up by written/spoken facts, pure and simple.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 4/1 market leader was the first to score at the sixth attempt.  Only two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:

1/4—Emperor’s Choice (soft)

 

1.15:  Paul Nicholls has secured the last five renewals and there is every chance that Paul’s great record will be extended here, the trainer having offered the green light to CLAN DES OBEAUX who has recorded his biggest margin of victory on soft ground thus far via a 4/11 ratio.  The ground should not prove to be a problem for VINTAGE CLOUDS (runner up in this race twelve months ago), especially as his latest victory was gained over an extended three miles, whereby he should be staying on when others have cried enough.  BORN SURVIVOR is another contender who acts on the ground (as well as any thoroughbred can) which sets us up nicely for an interesting ‘Graduation Chase’ to witness.
Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top price of 7/2 to date, statistics which include two winning favourites at 11/10 and 11/4.  The other four market leaders all missed out on Placepot positions as the relevant events were of the ‘win only’ variety.

Record of the course winner in the line-up:

1/7—Vintage Clouds (soft)

 

1.50: I note that Skybet are already taking evasive action about the chance of VERNI, albeit Richard Johnson’s mount is held on the book by CLYNE, though mainly because of the five pound claimer in the saddle relating to the mud loving top weight.  Although twelve pounds higher in the weights thanks to an impressive Stratford win the last day, last year’s heavy ground winner EL TERREMOTO cannot be eliminated from my enquiries given his 11/1 quote (Betfair/Paddy Power) at the time of writing.  Certainly not from a value for money Placepot perspective, albeit I concede that this is a deeper race twelve months on.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include two (9/4 & 3/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

2/3—Clyne (soft & heavy)

1/2—El Terremoto (heavy)

1/1—Chti Balko (heavy)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, facts which led me to short listing two of the last three (12/1 & 9/1) winners.  Last year’s race was secured by an older contender and I would not rule out a half decent effort from ZARKANDAR here at around the 20/1 mark.  A winner of two of his three races on heavy ground, Zarkandar’s race record of 11/33 stand very close inspection, notwithstanding an additional ten silver/bronze medals.  I’m having an each way bet on the old boy to minimum stakes, whilst adding TEMPLEROSS and THE WORLDS END into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Silsol (good)

1/1—Zarkandar (good to soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good to soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last eleven winners and I am a little surprised that Paul has not been tempted into taking on the market leaders here, given that there are question marks about both horses.  CUE CARD has landed up on the floor in two of his last three races, whilst BRISTOL DE MAI looked to be on a regressive route before turning back the tide the last day.  Both horses are class acts on their day, as is OUTLANDER but all three runners at this stage of their respective careers would have struggled to win this event had some of the former winners in their prime been in the field.  That said, it should make into an interesting event and presuming that Cue Card will represent poor value from a Placepot perspective, I’ll opt for the other pair, though if the eleven year-old turns back the years, nobody will be roaring him on more than yours truly, providing (of course) that one of the other pair join him in the Placepot result.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven warm favourites (five of them winners of their respective races at 4/6, 4/5, 10/11, 11/10 & 15/8) have reached the frame to date. The other (2/5--4/5--15/8--3/1) market leaders missed out from a Placepot perspective.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Bristol De Mai (soft & heavy)

3/4—Cue Card (2 x soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 winners—Dan Skelton (6/49 – loss of 18 points)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (14/78 – loss of 9 points)

4—Paul Nicholls (14/66 – loss of 18 points)

4—Sue Smith (10/94 +15)

3—Colin Tizzard (4/18 – loss of 2 points)

2—Peter Bowen (3/19 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/20)

2—Harry Fry (3/13 +5)

2—Philip Hobbs (8/60 – loss of 12 points)

2—Sophie Leech (1/4 +3)

2—Donald McCain (10/77 – loss of 27 points)

2—Dr Richard Newland (2/14 +1)

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/19 – loss of 8 points)

2—Evan Williams (8/59 +42)

2—Nick Williams (3/17 +7)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £39.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Huntingdon: £182.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £288.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £9.30 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th September

NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £440.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Nelson) & 6 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Clemmie) & 12 (Threading)

Leg 3 (2.55): 11 (Unfortunately), 7 (Hey Jonesy) & 12 (U S Navy Flag)

Leg 4 (3.35): 16 (Greenside), 6 (Linguistic), 13 (Chelsea Lad), 29 (Brorocco) & 8 (Big Country)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bye Bye Baby) & 1 (Altyn Orda)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Clubbable), 2 (Exhort) & 3 (Time Change)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: The fact that Aidan O’Brien’s Group winner NELSON meets his rivals here on level terms is an obvious pointer towards his chance, albeit ROARING LION could yet be anything.  Add MILDENBERGER into the mix and we have a race to savour for starters.  Although five years have passed without Aidan O’Brien having lifted the prize, five previous renewals have been secured by the Ballydoyle maestro down the years.

Favourite factor:  Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.

 

2.20: Aidan O’Brien grabs centre stage again here, though it is a shame that Heartache does not line up against CLEMMIE in what had potentially looked a fascinating clash in the ‘Cheveley Park’.  Aidan secured a one-two in the race last year with a 25/1 chance beating an 11/2 stable companion, with the 4/6 favourite (Lady Aurelia) missing out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest.  CLEMMIE could be as short as 11/8 with Clive Cox having ‘pulled the plug’, though Mark Johnston’s unbeaten Exceed And Excel filly THREADING looks sure to down down with all guns blazing, should that scenario unfold.  Connections of THREADING would be quite happy if a rogue shower evolves though that potential ‘edge’ looks unlikely.  That said either way, CLEMMIE (brother of Churchill) looks to be a similarly progressive type and should take the beating. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst 12 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.55: Three of the last six winners have scored at 25/1—25/1—22/1, notwithstanding the defeat of the 1/2 favourite (Ivawood) three years ago. Bookmakers will be rubbing their grubby hands together in anticipation of what looks to be a competitive (if not sparkling) renewal of the ‘Middle Park’.  Karl Burke has placed UNFORTUNATELY to brilliant effect in France on his last two assignments, Karl’s Society Rock representative having picked up Group 1 and Group 2 prizes across the channel of late.  With Karl having saddled plenty of winner in the south of the country this time as well, the trainer has been enjoying his travels this year and today could be another red letter day for the yard.  That said, I offer each way chances to HEY JONESY and U S NAVY FLAG, with both horses added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the 'Middle Park' during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites during the period secured toteplacepot positions.

 

3.35: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Five of the first seven horses home in 2012 were drawn twenty or higher (the same ratio from stalls 17+ in 2013) and the draw stats below suggest unless the going is soft, horses from higher numbers tend to hold an edge.  That said, if a horse is to win from a low number this time around, LINGUISTIC (drawn 5/35) would be the call, given that John Gosden looks to have targeted this race for some time relating to his (good to soft) course winner.  Two horses possessing 2/2 ratios here on the Rowley Mile catch the eye, namely GREENSIDE (28) and CHELSEA LAD (10), with preference going to the first named Henry Candy raider on account of the draw. Both horses have won with moisture in the ground at the track however, whereby Chelsea Lad is not just included to make up the numbers.  BIG COUNTRY (17) and BROROCCO (33) should have the ground drying out in their favour (no rain for Newmarket today according to the radar at one o’clock this morning) from the side of the course that should have the edge.  Very Talented (3rd in the race last year - has not raced since) is offered up the the reserve nomination. Best of luck!

Favourite factor:  Four favourites have won the ‘Cambridgeshire’ in the last 19 years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event.  Eight of the 24 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor--nine furlongs:

2016: 28-35-8-13 (31 ran-good to firm)

2015: 7-1-17-4 (34 ran-good)

2014: 11-28-14-10 (31 ran-good to firm)

2013: 4-28-3-20 (31 ran-good to firm)

2012: 21-7-2-12 (33 ran-good)

2011: 31-5-24-27 (32 ran-good to firm)

2010: 3-20-15-22 (35 ran-soft)

2009: 12-6-34-24 (32 ran-good to firm)

2008: 15-35-34-27 (28 ran-good to firm)

2007: 25-16-31-19 (34 ran-good to firm)

2006: 20-27-21-28 (33 ran-good to soft)

2005: 3-5-6-11 (30 ran-soft)

2004: 33-29-31-18 (32 ran-good)

2003: 19-8-5-12 (24 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the Cambridgeshire – none of the other five (juvenile) events have course winners involved on the Placepot card:

1/12—Master The World (good)

1/4—GM Hopkins (good)

1/3—Linguistic (good to soft)

2/2—Chelsea Lad (good to firm & good to soft)

2/2—Greenside (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Captain Cat (good to firm)

1/3—Secret Art (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Red Tea (good)

 

4.10: Yet another (7/4) favourite got chinned on last year’s card but this renewal should be safely filed under the (secure Placepot call) file, with BYE BYE BABY and ALTYN ORDA having been declared.  Personally, I am not too worried about the order in which the two market leaders finish, just as long as they secure a Placepot position or two between them.  Safe for you to presume that I will not be getting involved from a win perspective. Lightening Quick let the Bye Bye Baby form down yesterday, though Aidan’s raider has already contested a Group race which augurs well for her chance in this grade/company I guess.

Favourite factor: All five favourites have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events thus far.

 

4.45: Seven winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 9-1 though that said, the other trio of gold medallists heaved 9-7 to winning effect.  Richard Fahey is the only trainer to have a saddled two winners of this race during the last decade (within seven years in fact), whereby the chance for his consistent juvenile CLUBBABLE is there for all to see, from a Placepot perspective at least off 8-9.  Richard complicates matters having also declared EXHORT, whilst TIME CHANGE is offered as a win and place option for you to consider.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished out of the frame since the last favourite scored, though last year’s 5/2 market leader at least secured a Placepot position.

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – Their relevant number of winners (where applicable) on the corresponding day at Newmarket during the last five years are offered in brackets: 

6 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1)

5—Andrew Balding (1)

5—Richard Fahey (2)

5—William Haggas (1)

4—John Gosden (3)

3—Michael Appleby

3—Dean Ivory

3—Mark Johnston (4)

3—Kevin Ryan

3—Roger Varian (2)

2—Karl Burke

2—Ed Dunlop

2—David Elsworth

2—Jim Goldie

2—Charlie Hills (1)

2—Michael Meade

2—David Menuisier

2—David O’Meara (1)

2—John Ryan

2—David Simcock

2—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3)

2—Stuart Williams

+ 42 trainers with one entry on the card

108 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £95.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Haydock: £41.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £50.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Ripon: £987.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th September

NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £85.10 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Muffri’Ha), 8 (On Her Toes) & 1 (Lincoln Rocks)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (To Eternity), 5 (Elas Ruby) & 1 (Elbereth)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Gavota), 9 (Nyaleti) & 8 (Lightening Quick)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Beat The Bank) & 8 (Sir John Lavery)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Coat Of Arms) & 13 (Thrave)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Frontiersman), 7 (Best Of Days) & 3 (Red Galileo)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-2, albeit via just six renewals which have been contested thus far.  William Haggas has saddled four winners on this corresponding day during the last five years and the trainer appears to have quite a strong hand here having declared MUFFRI’HA and ON HER TOES. Both horses have won under the projected (good to soft) conditions and from a Placepot perspective at the very least, this pair are the first names on Friday’s team sheet.  David O’Meara is slowly but surely getting his act back together following a very ordinary year by his high standards.  That said, LINCOLN ROCKS has been one of his more consistent performers and as another good to soft winner in the line up, David’s top weight is expected to give win and place investors a decent run for their collective monies.

Favourite factor:  Four of the seven favourites (we still await the first winner) have secured Placepot positions to date.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

2/6—Muffri’Ha (good & good to firm)

 

2.25: Sir Michael Stoute has secured two of the last seven renewals though the yielding ground conditions are (seemingly) against his projected market leader Mori on this occasion.  I prefer John Gosden’s pair TO ETERNITY and ELAS RUBY, with John seeking a hat trick in the race.  Two of Andrew Balding’s last three runners won yesterday and I would not dismiss the each way chance of ELBERETH in a wide open contest, despite what the projected starting prices are implying.

Favourite factor:  Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six renewals, make that seven of the last eleven if you want to delve back into the past a little further. During that time, ten of the eleven gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven of the last twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.00: Some big investors are still licking their wounds following the defeat of Fair Eva in this contest twelve months ago, though with bookmakers likely to offer 3/1 field this time around, not too many scars should be in evidence the other side of the weekend.  Three unbeaten fillies are among the ten declarations, the pick of which should prove to be GAVOTA and LIGHTENING QUICK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  Mark Johnston improved his Newmarket ratio yesterday and having declared his tough Arch filly NYALETI, there is a chance that Mark could treble the tally that stood place in place on the Rowley Mile course this season before the three day fixture started.

Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has scored via the last ten renewals (including the demise of last year’s 4/9 jolly), six of the last eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.  Nine of the last eleven winners have scored at 11/1 or less.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this Group 3 contest, though vintage representatives have not covered themselves in glory in recent times.  BEAT THE BANK and SIR JOHN LAVERY have decent chances of helping the race to ‘return to type’, with both sets of connections appreciating the softening conditions at Newmarket these last few days.  Indeed, rain is set to fall during the day which will particularly support the chance of Aidan O’Brien’s latter named Galileo colt.  This pair will represent yours truly, though I’ll offer a word of encouragement about outsider Whisky Baron who could outrun his odds.  Making his British debut having completed a five-timer eight months ago, lack of race fitness might be more of an issue than the rivals he meets here, given that connections have targeted a Group 2 event which is not the strongest of contests from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though just three of the other 16 market leaders additionally secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/5—Custom Cut (good)

1/1—Beat The Bank (good to soft)

1/2—Whitecliffsofdover (good to firm)

 

4.10: It’s not all that often that Aidan O’Brien targets juvenile maiden events at this three day meeting, much preferring to let his established runners do the talking on behalf of the yard, especially with so much prize money on offer.  Aidan has declared his well exposed Galileo colt COAT OF ARMS on this occasion and with a lack of ‘jungle dreams’ beating for any of the newcomers, Aidan’s (very late) May foal should prove to be the horse to beat.  THRAVE did precious little wrong on his first day at school on the other playground in this part of the country, whereby Henry Candy’s Sir Percy colt could repeat his silver medal debut performance on the July course.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged during the last twelve years, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.45: Although the ground is something of a worry regarding the three Godolphin runners who are trying to win ‘their own race’ between them, it would be churlish in the extreme to cast their chances aside.  Of the three, RED GALILEO possibly offers the best value, given his half decent efforts on good to soft ground to date.  That said, FRONTIERSMAN and BEST OF DAYS look to be a class apart if conditions remain reasonable, both having won at this meeting twelve months ago.

Favourite factor:

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Frontiersman (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Best Of Days (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Friday with their number of winners on the corresponding card during the last five years:

5 runners—William Haggas (4 winners)

4—Ralph Beckett (1)

4—Ed Dunlop

4—Aidan O’Brien (1)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (1)

3—Andrew Balding

3—Luca Cumani

3—David Elsworth (1)

3—James Fanshawe (1)

3—John Gosden (8)

3—Charlie Hills (1)

3—David O’Meara (2)

3—Hugo Palmer (1)

3—Roger Varian (1)

2—Michael Bell

2—Henry Candy

2—Charlie Fellowes

2—John Ryan

+ 28 trainers with one runner

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £37.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Worcester: £30.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £463.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,739.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 7 (Time Chaser) & 2 (Empress Ali)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Learn By Heart), 3 (Dex Ex Bee) & 2 (Dark Acclaim)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Tasleet), 1 (Brando) & 11 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.00): 10 (Soie D’Leau), 12 (Mayleaf Shine) & 6 (Aleef)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Morando) & 2 (Victory Bond)

Leg 6 (4.10): 3 (Jaameh),10 (Sepal) & 11 (Compton Mill)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: The main advice today is simply to bet for fun, with yours truly not expecting potential investors to stake much more that their minimum risks on ground today which will probably look appalling by the end of play.  The Placepot advice above is ONLY offered because of my success yesterday, never wishing to ask readers to invest more that they can afford.  For this reason I would urge you where possibly to team with a friend or two and stake accordingly on a day when fun should far outweigh risk.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that TIME CHASER and EMPRESS ALI should get us safely through to the second leg between them, with Company Asset offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position. Horses filled the frame at 12/1-14/1-12/1, setting up a great (£2,739.60) Placepot dividend straight away!

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

7-3-9 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the first race:

1/2—Reach For The Stars (soft)

2/6—Intense Tango (good to soft)

 

1.50: The main protagonists have all won on soft ground whilst the going will be even worse form what we have read overnight.  Ladbrokes have had to trim back LEARN BY HEART, the ‘magic sign’ having been out of line with the other main layers overnight.  4/1 still looks a reasonable price but that said on this ground, I’m just content to give the Haggas representative his Placepot chance alongside DEX EX BEE and DARK ACCLAIM in a race that should provide a lot of clues for next season.

Favourite factor: Nine market leaders to date (via eight renewals) in which five gold medals have been secured alongside two of the silver variety.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-3 (6 ran-soft)

1-3 (5 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

6-4 (5 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-8 (5 ran-good)

1-2 (6 ran-soft)

Haydock record of runners in the second event:

1/2—Veejay (good)

 

2.25: Nine of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures in this Group 1 event, which certainly confirms my feelings that sprinting at the top level has left a lot to be desired for a number of years.  Three-year-olds have held the call during the last twelve years having claimed six gold medals, which offers all of us a semblance of hope in terms of potential stars of the future emerging in races at the ‘top level’.  Three-year-old SPIRIT OF VALUE is the each way value for money call at 25/1 with three leading firms this morning (Bet365, Hills & Paddy Power) whilst of the more likely winners of the contest, BRANDO and TASLEET make most appeal.  If Blue Point handles the ground, Charlie Appleby’s raider could also be expected to outrun his 14/1 quote, though conditions are entirely an unknown factor as far as the Shamardal colt is concerned.  I have not been right once about The Tin Man as yet because I have missed out on all his victories, whilst he has run below his best when I have supported the five-year-old.  For the record I’m against him today, so you know what to do accordingly!

Favourite factor: Six of the last 19 favourites have prevailed, though just two of the other 13 market leaders have claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-6-7 (14 ran-soft)

5-16-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

10-18-13 (17 ran-good)

2-14-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (13 ran-firm)

9-15-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

14-7-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-12-8 (14 ran-good to soft)

Race was contested at Doncaster in 2008--draw stats do not apply

6-1-7 (14 ran-good to firm)

10-3-4 (11 ran-heavy)

4-17-7 (17 ran-good)

14-5-4 (19 ran-good)

7-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

10-7-11 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-6-10 (12 ran-heavy)

7-12-3 (13 ran-heavy)

16-10-5 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (13 ran-good)

9-3-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Brando (soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to firm)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good to firm)

1/1—Harry Angel (firm)

 

3.00: Three of the last seven renewals have been won by three-year-olds, whilst horses drawn high have done well under slow conditions.  Last year’s winner SOIE D’LEAU looks sure to be a popular horse having won the race twelve months ago on ground, whilst Silvestre De Sousa has been booked to ride.  7/1 is available almost right across the board, though the 11/2 quote by Bet Stars looks more realistic from my viewpoint. Stall 10/13 should be fine given the conditions (check the stats below), whereas the trio of three-year-olds have all been drawn low, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be MAYLEAF SHINE (trap six).  ALEEF looks a tad too big at 14/1 having been beaten as a market leader earlier in the week when needing the run.  Jim Crowley takes the ride and David O’Meara’s raider completes my trio against the field from stall eleven.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last nineteen renewals have been won by favourites, whilst 12 of the 2 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  Eight of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

12-16-10 (12 ran-soft)

5-10-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-6-5 (11 ran- good)

8-10-11 (10 ran-good to soft)

13-15-9 (14 ran--firm)

1-8-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

7-2-16 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7-3 (16 ran-good to soft)

11-10-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-7-2 (10 ran-heavy)

6-8-12 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12-6 (16 ran-good)

6-16-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-21-10-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7-10 (21 ran-heavy)

8-9-5-7 (16 ran-heavy)

10-8-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-8-9 (12 ran-good)

Haydock record of runners in the fourth race:

1/3—Soie D’Leau (soft)

2/14—Confessional (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, statistics which include the lone vintage representative in 2012 (Thistle Bird) which won at 3/1.  Vintage representatives are around the 9/4 mark to extend the good run before form is taken into account, with MORANDO marginally preferred to VICTORY BOND at the time of writing.  Benbati steps down in trip but least we know he will see out the mile which is more than we know about others in the contest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (3/1-3/1-11/4-15/8-15/8-11/10) winners during the study period. That said, search parties are still to looking for the unplaced (Richard Hannon trained) 10/11 market leader who let punters down in 2013.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-7-2 (8 ran-soft)

4-2 (7 ran-soft)

6-1 (6 ran-good)

4-10-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (7 ran-firm)

1-9-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7 (8 ran-good)

1-3-4 (10 ran-soft)

9-1-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-3 (5 ran-heavy)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good)

5-9-1 (8 ran-good)

5-6 (5 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the fifth event:

1/4—Mitchum Swagger (soft)

2/3—You’re Fired (good & good to soft)

1/1—Rusumaat (firm)

 

4.10: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured seven of the last twelve contests, whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last eight renewals. The ground might be pretty desperate by the time the flag falls on the last leg of our favourite wager whereby the weight trends might have to be viewed with a little more caution than usual.  Mark Johnston’s JAAMEH looks sure to give Jim Crowley another good ride this afternoon, the heavy ground course winner looking to stay on when others have cried enough.  Mark’s four-year-old has the steadier of 9-6 but with recent winners all having carried plenty of weight, JAAMEH is one of the more interesting wagers on the card at around the 15/2 mark.  Certainly, I don’t expect the 9/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor to last long this morning.  Fellow four-year-old SEPAL must go close too, possibly alongside COMPTON MILL and MY REWARD.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won to date via 16 renewals, whilst 13 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Haydock record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—My Reward (good to soft)

1/4—Tawdeea (soft)

1/2—Jaameh (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card (two or more) on Saturday – followed by their ratios and profit/loss figures over the first two days of the meeting:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (0/2)

6—Tim Easterby (0/5)

4—Richard Fahey (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

4—Kevin Ryan (0/3)

3—John Gosden

3—William Haggas (0/2)

3—David O’Meara (0/4)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/1)

2—Andrew Balding (1/1 +4)

2—Michael Bell

2—Karl Burke (0/5)

2—Robert Cowell

2—Michael Dods

2—Iain Jardine (0/2)

2—Aidan O’Brien

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £373.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £79.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £134.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Kempton: £53.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £73.50 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £289.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Cavatina) & 1 (Amazing Michele)

Leg 2 (2.25): 14 (Pulitzer) & 6 (Forever In Love)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Manshood), 3 (Hyperfocus) & 4 (Russian Realm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Musharrif), 8 (Elysian Flyer) & 1 (Rasheeq)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Calder Prince), 6 (Noble Peace) & 7 (My Amigo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Always Resolute), 2 (High On Light) & 1 (Intense Tango)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: AMAZING MICHELE has been the one for some money overnight given the (seemingly inevitable) withdrawal from what was a ‘dead eight’ event.  Alan Bailey is not particularly noted for his two-year-old winners, though with four of his last nine runners having won, the chance for FLEETING FREEDOM is also respected.  That said, CAVATINA ran well at the first time of asking at Kempton and any amount of usual progress (whatever that is in the juvenile sector) should enable the William Haggas raider to at least snare one of the two available Placepot positions.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the Haydock card are novice events, whereby no history to the contests is in place.

 

2.25: The 11/4 trade press about the chance of Sir Michael Stoute’s Dutch Art filly FOREVER IN LOVE looks fanciful with 15/8 likely to be nearer the returned starting price from my viewpoint.  The dual beaten favourite (from as many assignments thus far) will be expected to score here in the Cheveley Park colours and if the difference between the two prices mentioned in the open sentence don’t look too far removed from each other, the differential is roughly the same as a horse being back in from 9/1 to 9/2.  Hugo Palmer scored with both runners at the track yesterday and stable representative PULITZER appears to be a live threat to Richard Kingscote’s mount.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the Haydock card are novice events, whereby no history to the contests is in place.

 

3.00: Nine of the ten winners have carried 9-2 or more to victory thus far, whilst four-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests.  Vintage representatives have also secured 13 of the last 20 available toteplacepot positions whereby MANSHOOD (the only runner with ticks in both of the trend boxes) is the first name on the team sheet.  Paul Midgley was (unusually) not represented at Haydock yesterday but comes to the races with three chances today and MANSHOOD should reach the frame for ‘Potters’.  Definite threats lurk in the murky waters however, the pick of which should prove to be stable companion RUSSIAN REALM (especially if the ground softens up) and Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old raider HYPERFOCUS.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) though rogue gold medallists have reared their ugly (25/1-14/1-9/1) heads along the way.

Course winners in the third race:

1/2—Russian Realm (soft)

1/3—Englishman (soft)

1/3—Cosmic Chatter (good to firm)

 

3.35: All eight winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-3, whilst four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals. No four-year-old figures in the ‘superior’ weight sector this time, whilst the pair of the three relevant five-year-old raiders appear to be MUSHARRIF and ELYSIAN FLYER.  Rachel Richardson aids and abets the chance of the top weight RASHEEQ given that Tim Easterby’s four-year-old representative now (potentially) carries just 16 ounces over the weight barrier thanks to Rachel’s claim, the pilot continuing to represent great value for her three pound allowance.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (via eight renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Major Pusey (good to firm)

1/1—Four Dragons (good)

 

4.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the six renewals to date, with five of the six gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Tom Dascombe snared a 22/1 double at the course yesterday whilst one of his other two runners on the card was only two lengths adrift of adding another 95 points to that return.  Tom has five chances to enhance his good record at Haydock this afternoon, the best of which could prove to be CALDER PRINCE with the ground seemingly coming right for the four-year-old Dark Angel gelding.  That said, Henry Candy also continues to send out regular winners just now, whereby NOBLE PEACE representative a definite threat.  Providing not too much more falls up the M6 corridor today, MY AMIGO could outrun his 8/1 quote (right across the board) if looking race fit in the parade ring following a five month break from the racecourse.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (including winners at 7/2, 7/2 & 2/1), though search parties are still out looking for the other 5/1 market leader.

Course winners in the fifth event:

2/5—Calder Prince (good & soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

4.45: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals of the Placepot finale and HIGH ON LIGHT has the best chance of the quartet of relevant declarations this time around.  David Barron has retained the services of Rachel Richardson to negate the majority of the four pound hike in the weights and the bandwagon looks set to go close again on this grade/company.  Fellow course and distance winners INTENSE TANGO and ALWAYS RESOLUTE boast similar claims according to the gospel of yours truly and but for having been away yesterday, I think I would have latched on to Brian Ellison’s 11/2 winner on Thursday.  Brian saddles ALWAYS RESOLUTE here having gone on the (rare) missing list at Haydock yesterday when his only runner of the day scored under the NH code at Sedgefield.  I guess it’s worth noting that Brian’s only other runner on the card runs off bottom weight in this event, namely Nordic Combined.  A (minimum stake) saver might be worth considering on Josephine Gordon’s mount, especially as the only victory gained to date by the Haafhd gelding was recorded under soft conditions.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 3/1) winners.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Intense Tango (good & soft)

1/1—High On Light (good to soft)

2/4—Always Resolute (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Friday, followed by their ratios at the track on Thursday + level stakes profits where applicable:

5 runners—Karl Burke (No runners at Haydock yesterday)

5—Tom Dascombe (2/4 + 18)

5—Richard Fahey (0/3)

3—David Barron (No runners)

3—Ruth Carr (No runners)

3—Tim Easterby (0/2)

3—Paul Midgley (No runners)

2—Robyn Brisland (No runners)

2—Brian Ellison (No runners)

2—James Fanshawe (No runners)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/1)

2—William Haggas (No runners)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/1)

2—Hugo Palmer (2/2 +6)

2—Derek Shaw (No runners)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £250.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £46.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £26.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £3,712.50 – Only one (6/4*) in the frame (No winners)

 

 

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.10 Chepstow : Starshell @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Azari @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has won two of his last five starts, including last time out hare at Haydock 26 days ago. He was hanging on somewhat at the end, so the half furlong drop back in trip should help him,as should the booking of the far more experienced and frankly better jockey, Richard Kingscote.

At this time of year as the Flat season approaches a climax, I like to keep an eye out for trainer Tom Dascombe, who tends to pick up more than his fair share of handicaps wins during the closing stages.

Numerically...2011-17 / August-October / 1m to 1m4f / 3-5 yr olds = 22/115 (19.1% SR) for 130.6pts (+113.5% ROI), with the following relevant subsets of data all at play today...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 19/90 (21.1%) for 139.2pts (+154.7%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote : 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • in September : 12/38 (31.6%) for 81.3pts (+213.9%)
  • at Haydock : 11/30 (36.7%) for 57.4pts (+191.3%)
  • under Kingscote at Haydock : 8/19 (42.1%) for 49.5pts (+260.3%)
  • LTO winners : 7/19 (36.8%) for 17.12pts (+90.1%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.4pts (+152.5%)
  • under Kingscote at Haydock in September : 6/9 (66.7%) for 50.6pts (+562.5%)
  • and under Kingscote at Haydock in September at Class 2 : 2/2 9100%) for 14pts (+700%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on  Azari @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!