Tag Archive for: Haydock racecourse

Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24

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Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Haydock, Kempton, Lingfield & Ludlow.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Haydock...

It has been pretty wet up here in the North West of late and that's generally means one thing at Haydock : heavy ground! And that's how it is for this six-race card that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.40...East Street has two wins and a place from five efforts over hurdles. Has been chasing for the past two years but now reverts back to the smaller obstacles on the back of two good wins over fences. he runs off the same weight as his last hurdle run/win, which is 7lbs lower than his last run/win over fences.

Kiss My Face showed signs of a return to form when a winner at Worcester in the summer and he was also a three-quarter length runner-up to stablemate Butlers Brief at Bangor at the end of October, but will need to put a poor LTO run at Exeter behind him.

Artic Mann has made the frame in half of his 18 efforts over hurdles to date and was only beaten by just over five lengths at Kelso last time out on his return from a 164-day absence, having won his previous race at Perth and his form since October 2023 reads 233422313, so I expect him to be involved again here.

It's Maisy has made the frame in six of nine over hurdles, winning four times, but a combination of a 5lbs weight rise and a 188-day absence meant that she only managed 6th of 10 at Bangor last time out. She did win her last race before the break, though and today's jockey takes 3lbs off her, so she should be competitive here.

I can make a case for all four of these plus Atomic Angel based on her past performances in the mud, but it's (1) East Street and (7) It's Maisy for me with (5) Artic Mann as the backup.

Leg 2 @ 1.10...White Rhino finished 111212134 in handicap hurdles at 2m4f to 3m1f including a Class 2 success at Cheltenham last December. He made a chase debut at Ayr almost five weeks ago and despite not having raced for 231 days, had enough about him to win by two lengths and should improve for the run.

President Scottie was placed in two of three bumpers in 2023 and made the frame in four of five over hurdles, winning twice including a 25 length success at Ayr over 2m4½f and here at Haydock over three miles. Soft/heavy ground is no issue either.

Heros De Romay is another chase debutant and his overall record on heavy reads 1133. He had a win and a place from his two bumpers and was placed 133 over hurdles, although he was beaten by 28 lengths as 3rd of 8 in a hot race at Cheltenham last time out (January) which was much tougher race than this one.

Beneficially Yours is relatively inexperienced with just three runs under Rules (all over hurdles) behind him, but he di finish 311 in those, winning by 51 and 36 lengths on heavy ground. He's also an Irish PTP winner and represents the locally-favoured McCain yard, but does step up in class here.

The two I like best for this are (3) White Rhino and (6) Beneficially Yours and I've little between the other two, but (4) President Scottie might just offer a bit more value.

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Carrig Kate headed my four-runner shortlist that I drew up for this race last night and was my one to beat, but she was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with just three straight picks and in order of preference, they would be...

(7) Ski Lodge was a runner-up on debut in a heavy ground bumper at Chepstow a year ago and followed that up with a win at the same track, trip and going at the end of January before going back to the shed for 285 days. He probably needed the run on his return but still managed 7th of 15 and with his heavy ground win and the prospect of improving for having had a pipe opener, he'd be my tentative pick in an open-looking but weak race.

(2) Grand Geste too a little while for the penny to drop, but came very close to winning at 200/1 at Carlisle last time out, only being headed on the line. He's by no means reliable to do the same again, but the race lacks depth and appears weaker than that Carlisle one.

(5) Martin Plage made a promising start to his hurdles career when only beaten by eight lengths at Wetherby in mid-October, despite having been off the track for 202 days. He should come on for that run and could well make the frame here.

The danger here might come from the unknown Jo Coko who changed hands for over £100k after winning his sole PTP at Lisronagh back in February.

Leg 4 @ 2.15...I'll split the field in half here and focus on...

(1) Circuit Breaker is the most experienced runner in the field and he won on soft ground over 1m2f on the Flat on debut at Windsor in May 2023. He won on his A/W debut at Kempton (2m) in September 2023 and after changing hands for 260,000 Guineas earlier this year, was an easy 16 lengths winner on his hurdling debut at Kempton 45 days ago, despite a five month break. I expect him to improve further with the run/experience behind him.

(2) Crest Of Fortune won a Class 5 heavy ground bumper at Wincanton on debut a year ago, but a step up to Class 2 proved too much as he was beaten at Newbury next time out. That said, he wasn't disgraced in a 6 length defeat as 5th home of 20 behind the winner Regents Stroll who is now 3 from 3, having since won a Class 3 hurdle at Newbury by ten lengths five weeks ago, whilst Crest Of Fortune also scored next/last time out, getting home by 6.5 lengths at Ffos Las just over three weeks ago. Trip & going should be fine.

(5) Royal Infantry is an interesting one, having won a PTP at Edgcote in April 2023 ahead of an 18-length success on his debut under Rules in a Doncaster bumper back in January of this year. He then stepped up from Class 5 to a Listed bumper on heavy ground at Newbury a month later and won that too before finishing in midfield in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at this year's Cheltenham Festival. He recently returned from an eight month break to win on hurdles debut at Chepstow and if reproducing his bumper form over hurdles could be a good prospect for the Skeltons.

I do like all three, but I think that (5) Royal Infantry and (2) Crest Of Fortune are the two to go with.

Leg 5 @ 2.45...(1) Empire Steel won a Listed Chase in March 2023 and a Class 2 handicap in February of this year, both at Kelso. He handles the mud well enough and has made the frame in four of his eight runs at trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f, whilst (2) Cloudy Glen is nine without a win since landing the Grade 3 Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury way back in November 2021, but has been plying his trade in better races than this one and was a Class 1 runner-up at Cheltenham just over a year ago. He's something to prove here, but he's 14112 after a break, 113 here at Haydock, he likes the mud and has a stack of supporting stats...

(3) Good Boy Bobby has made the frame in 13 of 22 (7 wins) on soft/heavy ground and although he is winless in six since back to back wins at Chepstow and Sandown in October/November last year, he has finished third in three of those defeats.

Bottom weight and oldest runner at 13yo, (7) Up Helly Aa King Two completes my shortlist for this one. He's a prolific (15 from 24) placer over fences with a 25% career win strike rate in chases and was a winner at Kelso last time out. That was almost eight months ago, mind, and his best form has come off breaks of less than two months so he might need the run.

The lack of a recent run means that I'll omit Up Helly Aa King Two and although Cloudy Glen hasn't won for three years, he'd be the one I fancy here ahead of both Good Boy Bobby and Empire Steel.

Leg 6 @ 3.18...A very open/tricky looking fnale awaits us and cases can be made for most of them, particularly the following...

Blue Fin who won two starts ago on soft ground at Carlisle after a 203-day break and was then only beaten by two lengths there last time out despite a 5lb weight rise. First-time cheekpieces should help today and he's definitely in the mix for me.

Hazy Glen won a heavy ground bumper on debut in October 2023 and made the frame in all three starts over hurdles last season finishing 223, so if race ready after a nine-month break would be a contender for another place at least.

Guard Duty makes a handicap debut off the back of a win and a third of thirteen in a pair of Class 4 Novice Hurdles at Uttoxeter this 'summer'. He also won his debut bumper and Team Lavelle are in pretty good nick right now with 5 winners from 21 over the last fortnight.

Jet Marshall steps up in class and hasn't raced for 671 days, but he did win on handicap debut at Wincanton when last seen. He's also up 3lbs for that win and I think this might be too much for him, but next time out, perhaps?

Bottom weight Haarar won back to back hurdle races at Southwell and Cartmel in May this year and comes here off the back of a soft ground handicap win over 1m6f on the Flat demonstrating that if he jumps well enough, he'll be plenty quick between the flights.

That ground speed from (11) Haarar could well catapult him into the frame and I'm happy to put him on my ticket builder, but I suspect he gets beaten by (5) Guard Duty and (2) Blue Fin, who I have closer to each other than the bookies do!

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) East Street, (7) It's Maisy & (5) Artic Mann

Leg 2: (3) White Rhino, (6) Beneficially Yours & (4) President Scottie

Leg 3: (7) Ski Lodge, (2) Grand Geste & (5) Martin Plage

Leg 4: (5) Royal Infantry & (2) Crest Of Fortune

Leg 5: (2) Cloudy Glen, (3) Good Boy Bobby & (1) Empire Steel

Leg 6: (2) Blue Fin, (5) Guard Duty & (11) Haarar

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...



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Tix Picks, Saturday 23/11/24

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Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Newcastle, Punchestown and Wolverhampton. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £75,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot and a whopping £100k at Haydock Park...

And as I'd rather be hung for a sheep than a lamb, let's take a tilt at the big pot at Haydock and the following races on good to soft/soft ground...

Leg 1 @ 12.08, a 7 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f...Bold Light has made the frame on all three starts so far and was a 7 length winner at Kelso last timeout, whilst Country Mile comes here on a hat-trick having won both starts to date including on hurdle debut recently. Roadlesstravelled is two from two over hurdles so far and was a five length winner at Wetherby three weeks ago, whilst 9 lengths was the margin of Saracen Beau's victory at Ayr on the same day.

Rocheval hasn't been seen for almost nine months, but comes here boasting a 100% record from three starts, including two wins over hurdles and the mare Lily du Berlais also runs for the first time this season, having been rested for 199 days after wins at Kelso and Ayr in the spring.

You could make a case for all six above, but my 1-2-3 would be Roadlesstravelled, Bold Light and Lily du Berlais with Rocheval best of the rest.

Leg 2 @ 12.40, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f...The Skeltons won this race last year with Real Stone and look set to repeat the feat with Home Free who is 2 from 2 since a wind op during a five month break this summer. He won very easily by 11 lengths at Ayr four weeks ago and a 10lb rise might not be enough to stop him. Netywell was denied a four-timer when fourth of ten at Carlisle back in April having jumped up two classes and could do better here now back down a grade.

The 8yo Galunggung is interesting with just four runs to his name. he finished 211 over hurdles and then scored on his chase debut at Perth in May. Like many of this field he has been well rested and he has yet to run a bad race. General Medrano needs to turn the clock back to October/November '23 when he finished 112 in consecutive races, but that hoisted his mark from 118 to 135 and he has toiled somewhat since. That said, he's now running off 129, which is 5lbs lower than his runner-up finish at Plumpton this time last year.

My shortlist here consists of the four named above and I think the one to miss out would probably be General Medrano.

Leg 3 @ 1.15, a 15-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f...The two I like best here are Beat The Bat and Kamsinas. The former hasn't been seen for almost a year since unluckily bumping into the very useful Dysart Enos (a Class 1 placer last week) at Cheltenham in a three length defeat and with nothing of her ability here, beat The Bat could get back to winning ways if seeing off Kamsinas who won a Grade 2 here at this meeting last year and also won at Kempton in march again at Aintree four weeks ago for a fifth win in his last ten starts.

Top-weight Steel Ally has made the frame in five of his six starts over hurdles and since winning at Wincanton in February has only been beaten by a neck, 1.5 lengths and 1 length in three outings. Josh The Boss return from a six month break to win a 17-runner handicap at Chepstow last month in a hot race that has produced 7 wins and 4 places from 17 runs since. The runner-up Doyen Quest (runs in the 2.30 today) and the third placed horse Take No Chances both won well recently, so the form is working out well.

Punta Del Este is the last on my shortlist and was only beaten by a head on his return from over six months off the track when third of nine at Carlisle three weeks ago, he seemed a bit stretched late on, so a slight drop in trip might help here. That said, he's up a pound and doesn't quite look as strong as the other four I've mentioned and I'm going to take all four of them here.

Leg 4 @ 1.50, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Graduation Chase over 2m5½f...Pretty much in line with the early market, my 1-2-3 here would be Iroko, Tahmuras and Trelawne with Deafening Silence the one most likely to upset my plans.

Iroko's last outing saw him finish second in the Grade 1 Mildmay at Aintree, having been a creditable fifth in the Turners Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival four weeks earlier and running anything like those kind of levels should be enough here.

Tahmuras has finished 3122 over fences so far in admittedly small fields, but was a winner at both Listed Class and Grade 1 over hurdles. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length in the Grade 2 Coral Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton last time out and it's worth noting that his yard (Paul Nicholls) have won this race three times in the last four years and four of all seven times this race has been held.

Trelawne fell at the second fence in this year's Ultima at Cheltenham and although he failed to win any of his three runs before that one, he wasn't beaten by far (4L, 2L & 2L), but did win on chase debut this time last year and landed both his last two hurdles races. He hasn't raced for 256 days but does go well fresh, having won at Carlisle last November and at Ffos Las the previous November after breaks of 259 and 232 days.

Deafening Silence makes a chase debut today, but after a Class 3 and a Grade 2 win over hurdles last winter, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him go well here and I did consider taking him over Trelawne, but we've had a lot of rain here in the North West overnight and I expect the ground to be soft come race time, which is ideal for Trelawne.

Leg 5 @ 2.30, a 16 15-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m½f...Last week's impressive win for Doyen Quest pushed him to my no. 1 pick here, but he was withdrawn overnight, opening the doors for several others in what looks a fairly open race.

Kerryhill won a PTP, won at Class 4 on his racecourse debut a year ago and finished fourth and first in two subsequent Grade 2 hurdles. Gwennie May Boy has won four of his last five over hurdles, including a Class 1 success at Aintree when last seen, but an 11lb rise makes this tough.

Zain Nights has run consistently well to make the frame in 7 of his 8 starts (34141113) over the last year and has had the benefit of a recent run at Cheltenham. He is up in class, but rarely runs a bad race and will probably be a decent price for eachway backers and it's a similar story with The Imposter, who over the last two years has finished 31112111111 over hurdles, but all at Classes 3 to 5. He'll run his race, but the effects of ther gulf in class and a near one year absence are against him.

Ottizini, however, won by nine lengths on her seasonal reappearance at Ayr three weeks ago and although up in class, looked like being in good nick. Catch Him Derry is 3 from 4 in handicap company and 331211 over hurdles full stop. Has won on good to soft, soft and heavy, so he won't mind Haydock's wet track today and the trip is no issue either. He looked like being the yard's second string here, but Doyen Quest doesn't run, so this is the Skelton's only chance in the race.

My shortlist is completed by One Big Bang, whose UK record (and his last three outings) reads 112 having gone down by less than two lengths on heavy ground just over three weeks ago after a 207 day absence. He had previously won on both soft and heavy, including a course and distance win here in March.

I'd be looking at One Big Bang and Catch Him Derry as most likely to succeed here backed up by Kerryhill, Gwennie May Boy and Zain Nights here.

Leg 6 @ 3.05, a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ Chase over 3m1½f...Ahoy Senor was a Grade 1 runner-up at Aintree in April over today's trip beaten by just half a length and returned to Aintree 199 days later last month to finish a creditable Grade 2 third over an inadequate 2m4f and should relish the step back up in trip. Grey Dawning won at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 last season and had probably already done enough last term when third at Aintree in April. Fully refreshed here, stands every chance of getting involved yet again.

Hewick was beaten by half a length behind Envoi Allen in a Grade 1 earlier this month and won the King George at Kempton last year before going on to finish third in the Punchestown Gold Cup at the end of the season. He's proven at this level and rarely runs a bad race over fences. Royale Pagaille completes my shortlist here based on the fact that he won this race last year and his Haydock record reads 11211. Despite this, his jumping isn't the best if truth be told and he has fallen in two of his last three starts and this is why he'd be the one I'd discard from the four runners highlighted. His soft ground form might come back to bite me on the backside, but I need to draw a line somewhere.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Roadlesstravelled, (1) Bold Light & (6) Lily du Berlais

Leg 2: (2) Home Free, (4) Netywell & (6) Galunggung

Leg 3: (5) Beat the Bat, (2) Kamsinas, (1) Steel Ally & (6) Josh The Boss

Leg 4: (2) Iroko, (3) Tahmuras & (4) Trelawne

Leg 5: (15) One Big Bang, (14) Catch Him Derry, (3) Kerryhill, (4) Gwennie May Boy and (7) Zain Nights

Leg 6: (6) Hewick, (5) Grey Dawning & (1) Ahoy Senor

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...


As ever, the very best of luck and I hope you all have a great weekend.
Chris



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Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

... on 30-day form...

...1-year form...

... and 1-year course form...

 

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Ascot
  • 2.45 Ascot
  • 3.15 Kempton
  • 4.12 Stratford
  • 4.40 Haydock
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...and with all three listed Trainer/Jockey combos having a runner in the same race on our free list, I suppose it makes sense to see how Arkhalia Flynn, Red Hat Eagle and Orbaan might get on in the 4.40 Haydock, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Arkhalia Flynn won last time out and comes here on a hat-trick, having won three and placed once in his last four outings, whilst bottom weight Mr Swivell also won and he’s now two from his last four. As well as being in good nick, this pair are both 3yr olds, so they like Asteverdi and Rogue Encore get a 5lbs weight allowance here.

Aside from the two winners, Asteverdi is our only LTO placer, having finished third a fortnight ago. Most of the field have, however, won at least one of their last seven outings but Rogue Encore is a five-race maiden and Autumn Festival, Nap Hand and Leadenhall are currently on losing streaks of 10, 9 & 9 races respectively.

The top two in the weights, Orbaan and Red Hat Eagle both drop down a class today and Stockpyle is down two grades, but both Beylerbeyi and bottom-weight Mr Swivell take a step up in class.

All bar Nap Hand and the maiden Rogue Encore have already won at least once over today’s trip with Pearl Eye and Leadenhall both former course and distance winners. Arkhalia Flynn has also scored here at Haydock, landing a 7f handicap too months ago, as shown on Instant Expert, which thankfully has a fair smattering of green about it…

...with Arkhalia Flynn and Pearl Eye the standouts despite not having won (or run in one case) on good to soft ground. Asteverdi is sure to like the going, but I doubt Autumn Festival will and this wouldn't be his preferred trip, a fact which seemingly also applies to Orbaan. Leadenhall has the worst Class 4 record and he's only 1 from 6 at the trip too, so he might struggle here, even if his place stats look solid...

Red Hat Eagle is worryingly 14lbs higher than his last turf win and 8lbs higher than a subsequent A/W success at Chelmsford.

I'm going to use the above data to eliminate Orbaan from my enquiries before moving onto draw and pace, which will hopefull both help me narrow down this field. If truth be told, the draw data is fairly inconclusive, but those drawn more centrally seem to have the worst records for win and place...

...so that might not be the best news for Rogue Encore, Nap Hand, Autumn Festival or Beylerbeyl, whilst the pace stats from the same races suggest a front-runner might b the one to be on...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...with low-drawn front runners the preferred option. We can see how this field have been ridden n their last few races as follows...

There's not much pace in the race, if truth be told and we might well get a falsely run race, which would play into the hands (hooves?) of the lower half of that pace chart, runners who are used to not having to put their effort in until later in the race.

Summary

It normally pays to crack on with thing here at Haydock, but with a field lacking much in the way of early pace, the race could be a falsely run affair and I think the hold-up types might prosper here.

Of those in the lower half of the pace chart, Arkhalia Flynn seems the obvious pick. He's in great form (1311), gets a weight allowance, had a line of green on Instant Expert and is drawn lowest of all. He was the 11/4 favourite with Bet365 on the early (3pm) show, but that might actually be a decent price.

Elsewhere and for similar reasons, I like Pearl Eye and with the bookies paying four places, 10/1 could be an attractive E/W proposition here.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 06/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report are fairly restrictive...

...and they haven't actually generated any runners for me to look at, so it's a good job that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 2.15 Beverley
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 4.35 Beverley
  • 5.58 Bellewstown
  • 8.00 Bellewstown

The pick of these is undoubtedly the Old Newton Cup but 17-runner handicaps tend not to be my thing, so I'll stick to the next best and first of that list, the 1.30 Haydock, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground...

We've no LTO winners to discuss today, but Due for Luck was third of nineteen in the Epsom Dash at the start of the month, beaten by a length and a half with the re-opposing Curious Rover a further 2 places and 2.25 lengths further back. Curious Rover has raced again since and was also third last time out, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Chester in an eleven-runner field and he's now a pound better off with Due For Luck.

All seven runners here have won at least one of their last seven races and all bar Fools Gold have had at least one outing in the last five weeks, but he hasn't been seen for nearly ten months since being well beaten (10 lengths) in a Group 2 race at Doncaster, when seventh of eight. He has been gelded during his layoff but will probably need the run here on his handicap debut.

He's down three classes here today, as none of this field actually raced at Class 4 last time around; Vince L'Amour, Lady Pink Rose and Moonstone Boy all raced at Class 2, whilst Due For Luck and Curious Rover both competed in Class 3 handicaps. Only bottom weight Cloud King steps up in class here.

Only Curious Rover and Due For Luck have raced here at Haydock before with the former winning a Class 2 Nursery over course and distance last September in a race where Due For Luck was last home of the four runners, almost seven lengths down and it's this pair that lead the way on Instant Expert...

Vince l'Amour and Moonstone Boy have done well over this trip too, although the former's best runs have come on soft and heavy ground and this might be too quick for him. From the above, it's Due For Luck who has had the most success turning those placed efforts into wins...

You wouldn't normally expect much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight 5f on good ground, but the results from similar past races doesn't bode well for the chances of Cloud King and Moonstone Boy drawn higher than stall five...

I must admit that I didn't expect that, but I wasn't surprised to see the following pace data from those races above...

... which then generated this pace/draw heat map...

Fools Gold only has three previous runs under his belt, so it's probably fairest to just analyse the field's last three runs and here's how they've approached then from a pace perspective complete with the corresponding pace/draw heat map for this contest...

Summary

For me, it's a two-way battle between Curious Rover and Due For Luck and I feel they're very closely matched. The former leads the head to head by 2 to 1, the latter had the better win record on Instant Expert. Both are drawn well, both made the frame last time out and both had good place record on Instant Expert, but Curious Rover likely to attempt the control the race from the front, he'd be my marginal pick here at 4/1*, which offers better value than the 2/1* ticket on Due for Luck.

Only 2 places on offer today, sadly, but 10/1* outsider Moonstone Boy could easily outrun those odds and he might be the one who'd take advantage of any slip up from my 1-2.

*odds taken from Bet365 (only book open) at 4.40pm Friday.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 25/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of combos for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover..

  • 1.20 Curragh
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 3.35 Chester
  • 3.45 Goodwood
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 5.35 Windsor

Normally, I'd be covering that Listed race from Goodwood, but up here in the North West we've something even better : the 1.50 Haydock, a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for 3yo+ horses over a straight 5f on soft ground...

Seven Questions and Equality both won last time out, but the latter is our only class mover, having raced in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh five weeks ago. Rogue Lightning was fifth in France after winning three on the bounce here in the UK. Makarova and Vadream are both winless in their last five.

No new headgear or equipment being used here, no yard debuts and just Equality moving in class. Quality Aussie sprinter Asfoora makes her UK debut today nine weeks after a ¾-length defeat at Group 1 and it's worth noting that she has won three (inc 1 x Gr2 and 1 x Gr3) of five soft ground races. She has won over this trip before, as have all her rivals, but only Equality (course and distance) and Kerdos (6f on debut) have won at Haydock already with Makarova and Live In The Dream sharing three defeats...

The going doesn't really look like an issue for any of these runners, even if two of them are yet to make the frame : three combined runs isn't a hugely reliable sample size, but Makarova and Vadream have had plenty attempts at Class 1 and haven't really impressed. Kerdos' win record over the trip is poor if truth be told and the ones I'd taske forward from Instant Expert are Live In the Dream, Seven Questions, Vadream (place potential?), Beautiful Diamond and Rogue Lightning along with Asfoora based on her overseas record.

So, I've omitted runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 5, so I'm hoping there's no low draw bias here or I'm staring at Live In The Dream from stall 3! Thankfully, runners in stalls 4 to 8 have fared beast in soft ground straight sprints here at Haydock over the years...

...with stalls 3 to 7 faring best for the places, which overall is especially good news for the likes of Seven Questions and Asfoora. They key to winning sprints here at Haydock, though, rests more on race tactics/positioning, as those horses prepared to take the race on early have tended to win most often...

...with leaders winning 21.05% of their races and non-leaders winning just 8.67% of theirs and there's a similar (45.61% vs 28.46%) story with the places, so we need to check how these horses normally run via the pace tab...

...and it looks like Live In The Dream will be the one to catch here.

Summary

Live In The Dream looks like he'll try to make all here, a tactic that served him really well when winning the Gr1 Nunthorpe last autumn. He ran well in the Breeders Cup last year and was third in this race last time around and he'd be the one to beat in my book. He was a 4/1 shot at 5.45pm on Friday and whilst that's not generous, I'd say it was fair.

In opposition, I do like the look of the Aussie raider Asfoora, a dual-Group race winner on soft ground, who comes here as a bit of an unknown quantity, I suppose, whilst Seven Questions is drawn well, is in good form and will be up with the pace, so should be in the mix. Asfoora and Seven Questions currently trade at 5/1 and 16/1 respectively, so a small E/W play on the latter might be the ticket here.

Enjoy the Bank Holiday, I'll be back next week.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/03/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 3.30 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated any runners at all for me to consider and I'm not massively keen on any of the 'free' races for different reasons, so I'm going to look at one of the day's joint highest-rated races, the 3.50 Haydock, an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase on soft/heavy ground. The trip is 3m 160yds after rail movements and these are the runners facing 22 fences today...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be two races in one with (racecard order) Jubilee Express, Robyndzone, O'Connell and Ali Star Bert battling it out for positions 1-4 and the remainder all trying to be next best.

Bottom weight Ali Star Bert is the only LTO winner in the field and comes here seeking a hat-trick and a fourth win in five starts, having been beaten by a nose three starts ago. He's clearly the 'form' horse here, but Robyndzone has two wins (but also two incomplete runs) from his last four and has three wins and a runner-up finish from six starts. Atakan is also two (plus a place) from four, whilst only Gold Emery has failed to win any of his last seven, having won just once (on debut) in his eight career starts and he's 0/6 over fences.

Only Jubilee Express and Robyndzone raced at this grade last time out with the former a one length runner-up. Top-weight Conkwell legend drops down after some disappointing Class 2 efforts, whilst the other five runners are all up from Class 4, which shouldn't help Atakan who was 4th LTO or Gold Emery/Hold The Note who were both pulled up and Atakan now wears a tongue-tie for the first time.

All eight have raced in the last 2-5 weeks or so, so there's none quickly turned back out nor should any be rusty enough to 'need the run', but they are a bit shy on course/distance form, although Robyndzone won here on heavy ground over course and distance on his penultimate run and Atakan did win over 3m4½f on soft ground at Plumpton two starts ago, a victory that skews the Instant Expert stats in his favour somewhat...

Initial concerns here are the lack of wins for Conkwell Legend/Gold Emery (going) and Hold The Note (class) and also the temptation to be sucked in by Atakan's sole soft ground/class/distance win at Plumpton. O'Connell is also some 11lbs higher than his last win and he's 4lbs higfher than when finishing as runner-up last time out. I'm aware that there's more to handicapping than a simple punishment for running well, but if he couldn't win any of his last three outings off marks of 110, 111 and 111, is he likely to now win off 115?

There's not much else to glean from the above and I'm hoping for a bit more help from the place data...

This marks Conkwell Legend's card and re-affirms Hold The Note's lack of form at Class 3 and I've probably seen enough to discount them at this stage, unless there's a huge pace bias to be had in their favour.

Pace is an interesting concept and often a misleading term, especially in NH racing. Pace is more an assessment of race tempo, getting your horse in the right filed position and choosing the right tactics, rather than pace meaning to blast out quickly. That said, staying chases on difficult ground here at Haydock have suited those racing further forward who have (a) kept themselves out of trouble and (b) been able to dictate the tempo of the race from the front. Those racing in the front half of the field have won 70% of the races shown below from just 44.7% of the runners...

...with those leading the way faring best of all. 50 of 333 (15%) runners have been deemed to have led, but they've managed to win 13 (32.5%) of the 40 races, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could well tip the scales in Robyndzone's favour.

Summary

Robyndzone heads the pace chart and was one of my initial quartet of 'possibles', but his Instant Expert scores aren't great and he'd probably want quicker ground and a shorter trip, whilst Jubilee Express looks better suited by the conditions and won't be far off the pace. Ali Star Bert is likely to race in mid-division, which isn't ideal, but if he doesn't let the leaders get too far ahead, he's in good enough form to play catch-up especially as he receives 2-20lbs from his rivals. O'Connell is another who'll have to work from mid-field and these conditions are probably as good as he's going to get at this grade (he'd be better down in class), but he's carrying too much weight in my opinion (aren't we all?).

My first thoughts were that we've a race of two halves with these four the main protagonists, but whilst I stick by that theory, I think that this front four might also be a contest of two halves, as I see Jubilee Express to just be slightly better than Ali Star Bert, whilst O'Connell and Robyndzone battle it out to make the frame. At 3.40pm on Tuesday, Hills (only book open) had the field priced as follows...

...which isn't too far from how I have it. Of the 'other' four, all of whom are 8/1 or longer, Atakan is probably the one most likely to upset the applecart as an E/W punt.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 17/02/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.27 Gowran Park
  • 3.57 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

Both Highland Hunter & Trais Fluors from the TJC report are set to run in races from our 'free' list, but the former's race is by far the higher-rated, so I'm staying fairly close (approx 30 miles SW from home) for the 3.15 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over what might be a slog of almost 3m5f (after rail movements) on heavy ground...

It's a pretty open-looking contest here with all eleven having won at least one of their last six outings with Snipe winning twice, Iwilldoit & My Silver Lining scoring three times and Famous Bridge landing four of six, but only My Silver Lining was a winner last time out. Other placers, Iron Bridge, Yeah Man and Snipe finished as runners-up on their last runs.

Most of these ran at Class 1 on their last outing, but top weight Iwilldoit, featured runner and first-time cheekpiece-wearer Highland Hunter and Full Back all step up from Class 2, whilst bottom weight Snipe is up two classes after finishing second at Doncaster three weeks ago. That three week rest is the shortest of any of the field, but the longest lay-off is with Yeah Man (who also wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and he's only been off for eight weeks, so no fitness excuses.

Only Iwilldoit and Highland Hunter have won over a similar trip to this one, but we've three former course winners in the shape of Iron Bridge (3m2f chase), Fontaine Collonges (3m1½f chase) and Famous Bridge (2 x 3m1½f chase) as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where most of the top half of the field look like they'll have suitable conditions to suit their style. In fairness, we're not really playing with a large bank of data, but going & distance form might well be key here.  We also don't have much to go on regarding pace, but Haydock has tended to suit those setting the tempo in staying chases on difficult ground...

...which could be good news for Highland Hunter, if we ignore his last outing over an unsuitably short 2m6f at Lingfield last time out...

I suspect he'll attempt to make all here with My Silver Lining leading the chasing pack.

Summary

Most of these come here in decent nick and both Iwilldoit & My Silver Lining have won three times in their last six outings, whilst Famous Bridge had landed four of six, but only My Silver Lining was a winner last time out.

Five of the top six on the card seemed to have the best figures on Instant Expert ie Iwilldoit, Chambard, Highland Hunter, Fontaine Collonges and Famous Bridge, whilst the pace profile highlighted Highland Hunter and My Silver Lining.

If we look at these names, we see two mentions for Iwilldoit, Highland Hunter and Famous Bridge and three for My Silver Lining and I think I want to focus on this quartet for a possible bet.

I said at the top of the piece that this looked an open affair and the bookies seem to share that view with the 4.40pm market looking like this...

Of those, I like My Silver Lining best. She's in tremendous form right now and should be further ahead of any potential trouble in the field when horses start to tire. I suspect she'll let Highland Hunter lead the way before picking him off later on. That said, 18/1 looks a really big price about the potential pace-maker and with all major firms paying at least four places, Highland Hunter would be my E/W pick and I expect Iwilldoit and Famous Bridge to go well too and both might well end up in E/W territory if money comes for other runners. I'll need to check the market closer to the off.

 

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 23/12/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 1.05 Newcastle
  • 2.25 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock

...and with one of the six races above being a stayers' contest on tricky ground, let's head to the 1.30 Haydock, where the in-form Anthony Honeyball sends the 8 yr old Credo to contest a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on heavy ground...

Enqarde and Famous Bridge both won last time out, whilst Burrows Diamond and Credo both had runner-up finishes and Conkwell legend was third. Bill Baxter and Eleanor Bob have both won two of the last four, Famous Bridge is three from four and Credo is two from five and all have won at least one of their last seven.

Famous Bridge actually beat Credo by a length last time out over this course and distance with Eleanor Bob not too far back in fourth...

...and Credo is 3lbs better off with the winner here, so they're very closely matched, whilst Eleanor Bob is even better off today. That win by Famous Bridge here four weeks ago makes him one of two course and distance winners in this field, as Enqarde won this race last year and now runs off a mark 1lb lower than a year ago.

All bar Dr Kananga have raced in the last 14-45 days, but the 9 yr old has been off the track for some 40 weeks and has had a wind op during that time. He is, however, the only other horse in the race with a previous win over this type of trip.

Last year's and LTO winner Enqarde steps up a class here, but Bill Baxter, Burrows Diamond and Conkwell Legend all drop down from Class 1 action. Instant Expert says that the first named of that trio is this race's only previous heavy ground chase winner...

...but that several of them will enjoy the trip. To be fair to the runners here, they've not exactly failed on heavy ground, they've hardly experienced it and most of them have gone well on soft ground...

...whilst the place stats look like this...

...from which I think I'd be focusing upon Famous Bridge and Credo most. The pace data from the field's last few races say that Credo is likely to be held up for a run, whilst Famous Bridge tends to run in mid-division. All indications, however, point to the likes of Eleanor Bob and Dr Kananga setting the early tempo...

Our pace analyser suggests this early pace is the best approach to winning races here, but that a mid-divisional position is great for making the frame...

Summary

Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth home here at class, course and distance last time out and I think that's where I want to be looking. Despite the pace stats suggesting that Credo might struggle, her yard is in cracking form and with a 3lb pull on the LTO winner, I fancy her to overturn those placings. Eleanor Bob is also better off at the weights here and was running for the first time in 21 months last time out. She gets weight all round here and should come on for having had the run and I suspect/hope we'll have a cracking three-way battle after three energy-sapping miles.

They are, understandably, well-fancied by the 4.30pm market...

...and with neither of them really long enough for an E/W bet, my play here is Credo at 11/2.

That's me done now until after Christmas, so wherever you are and however you spend Christmas, I sincerely hope it's an enjoyable one.
All the best,
Chris



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Racing Insights, Saturday 25/11/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 11.00 Lingfield
  • 11.30 Lingfield
  • 12.20 Ascot
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 2.13 Huntingdon
  • 2.20 Haydock

Harry Derham & Paul O'Brien team up with Scrum Diddly in one of our 'free' races, but only three are set to go to post, so we'll look elsewhere for today's preview. We'll stick with the TJC Report, though and see how the Williams/Deutsch combo get on with Eleanor Bob up against the Honeyball/Twiston-Davies team's Credo in the 3.35 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground; a race won by Venetia Williams' Fontaine Collonges last year and the race where Sam Twiston-Davies won on Crievehill back in 2019...

All of the field step up at least one class to run here with the two at the bottom of the weights, stepping up two levels. One of our featured runners, Credo, is the only one coming here off the back of a win, but Sidi Ismael, Docpickedme, Coconut Splash, Wasdell Dundalk and Bali Body were all in the frame, whilst only Coconut Splash and Cap du Nord are winless in seven or more outings (13 and 7 respectively to be precise and the former is 0 from 13 over fences).

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but top-weight Sidi Ismael hasn't raced for almost eight months, whilst our other featured runner, Eleanor Bob, hasn't raced since falling at Fontwell almost 21 months ago and both might well need the run.

We don't have much in the way of course/distance form with only Haute Estime having a Haydock win (2m3f hurdle) under his belt, whilst Docpickedme's 3m1f chase win at Southwell and Bali Body's 3m2f hurdles win at Hereford are the closest we've got to a distance success, but Instant Expert says that most of the field have won a chase in the 3m to 3m2f range and that most have won on good to soft or soft ground, so that could be promising...

...unlike Coconut Splash's dismal record of 12 defeats on this going. Cap du Nord's win record at Class 2 leaves plenty to be desired, as does his 2 from 22 over similar trips. I think it's fair to assume I won't be backing either of these two to win here, even if their place stats are a little better...

based on the place stats, I'm more drawn to the likes of Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk, who are likely to make their run for home quite late, if their last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it looks like Eleanor Bob and Docpickedme might be left to their own devices to set the tempo of the contest, but that hasn't always been a successful tactic over fences here at Haydock...

Summary

I was drawn to Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk at the Instant Expert phase of my analysis and the fact that all three like to come late is a bonus, so I think I'm going to focus on this trio. Credo is one of our two featured runners, she's the only LTO winner in the pack and her yard is going really well right now. The trainer/jockey combo have had a great year together and at 11/2 with Hills, we might have a nice little bet on our hands.

Wasdell Dundalk has been running really well for some time now, finishing 11122 over the last three months and although he's up another 2lbs here, he could make his presence felt and a 17/2 E/W bet might not be the worst decision you make this weekend, whilst Bali Body is still unexposed over fences, but has made the frame is all three efforts to date, finishing 312. He defied a 701-day absence to finish third at Wetherby three weeks ago and although up in class here, he does receive weight all round and would be another to consider from an E/W perspective at 10/1 with Bet365 who'll pay four places here.



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Racing Insights, Friday 29/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Newcastle

We've had almost a constant deluge of rain in the North West for some while now, which could make life tricky for some runners, so I'm interested in the Haydock card. The free race on the card is for 2yo maiden fillies, which is almost as far removed from anything I like as you could possibly get, but I'm 'staying local' for the last on the card, the 5.25 Haydock. It's a competitive-looking (at first glance, anyway) 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on soft/heavy ground...

Bottom weight Beccara Rose was the only one of the group to win last time out, but Pearl Eye was a runner-up and has been in the frame in 10 of his 11 starts over the last year, winning five times. Rhythm n Rock is the only one without a win in six, having made the frame just once in that run after finishing 3113 in his first four outings.

Only Shahbaz and LTO winner Beccara Rose ran at this grade last time around, as Harswell Duke, Conservationist and the in-form Pearl Eye all step up from Class 4 whilst the top two on the card, Liamarty Dreams and Rhythm n Rock both drop down from Class 2, as does the oldest runner (8yo) Young Fire.

Young Fire is however a former course and distance winner, as are the three year olds Conservationist and Pearl Eye. Liamarty Dreams has also won here at Haydock, scoring over 7f sixteen months ago, whilst Rhythm n Rock, Harswell Duke and Beccara Rose have all won over a mile on other tracks with the latter getting off the mark over this trip at Kempton three weeks ago, but she does look better on the A/W.

Young Fire was actually in action as recently as Tuesday when beaten by 4.5 lengths on soft ground at a higher grade at Nottingham, so he's back out quickly in a field where all runners have seen some action in the last eight weeks (most in the last four!).

Beccara Rose's LTO (and sole) win came on the all-weather, so that won't appear on the flat stats provided by Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Pearl Eye looks like the standard-bearer. Harswell Duke wouldn't mind even more rain to drop, but his Class 3 win record isn't the best. Elsewhere, there are question marks over Young Fire's 3 from 26 at the trip and he'd probably prefer his races to be a little shorter, although he has made the frame in 4 of those 22 defeats (18.2%) as shown below...

...where again Pearl Eye looks the best suited. Young Fire has been consistent on soft ground and loves it here at Haydock, where he has finished 1114 on soft, whilst Shahbaz has been knocking on the door for a Class 3 win and those last two mentioned seem to be in the 'best' part of the draw, as our draw analyser suggests that the winners of similar races have come from stalls 2 to 5

...with those drawn 1 to 5 making the places most often. That's not ideal for the in-form eyecatcher Pearl Eye, but he is only one berth outside that corridor of runners. The pace data for those 30-odd races above point to those making the running faring best of all...

...which again isn't the best news for Pearl Eye, as recent evidence suggests he'll be nearer the back of the field with Rhythm n Rock and Young Fire, whilst the likes of Liamarty Dreams and Conservationist set the tempo...

All isn't lost, though, as when we combine pace & draw together, only Shahbaz looks like being inconvenienced and even then, he's pretty close to being in the green...

Summary

The pace/draw heat map suggests that any of these can win from any stall and if it's that open/competitive, I want to be with Pearl Eye. He's in great form (1321311 over this trip) and has won on both soft and heavy. He's currently 7/2 and that's probably a fair assessment of his chances.

Had this race been elsewhere on better ground, I'd probably not be interested in Young Fire, but he's a different animal on the soft ground at Haydock and at 9/1 with Bet365, I like him as an E/W possible. As for another placer, you could make a claim for most of them if truth be told, but only Harswell Duke is at an E/W price. He's 18/1 right now and on his form from October '22 to April this year, he'd be a cracking bet, but hasn't looked the same animal since taking the summer off. Perhaps it'll all click back into place?

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 York
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 3.55 Cartmel
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 4.40 Chester

So, I've seven races from the TJC report and six 'free' ones and no duplicates! In whuich case, I'll bow to class and go with the highest rated race of that baker's dozen and have a look at the the 3.30 Haydock, a 14-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here's how they line up...

Surprisingly for a Group 2 race, only one runner, Happy Romance, was a winner last time out, but Annaf is 3 from 5, Live In The Dream's last three results were 112, Mibaahy is 3 from 5, Raasel is 2 from 6, Royal Aclaim is 3 from 5, Sandbeck is 2 from 5 and 3 from 7, The Platinum Queen is 2 from 4 and 3 from 6 , whilst Dramatised is 2 from 3 and I think I already want to narrow the field down to this more manageable group of runners, as follows...

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher, Sandbeck wears cheekpieces for just the second time and The Platinum Queen runs for Roger Varian for the first time since leaving Richard Fahey. All nine runners have won over this trip at least once before with both Raasel and Sandbeck scoring over course and dsitance.

Five of the nine have already had a run in the last five weeks, but it's a seasonal re-appearance for The Platinum Queen, Dramatised, Mitbaahy and Royal Aclaim, who have been off the track for 204, 204, 237 and 258 days respectively. Raasel is the oldest of this group at 6yrs of age, whilst The Platinum Queen and Dramatised are both 3 yr olds.

Instant Expert tells me that six of the nine have won on good to firm ground already and that five are previous Class 1 winners on turf. We also see that aside from the course and distance winners, two others have been to Haydock before and that Annaf's previous success over 5f wasn't on grass...

With one win and six unplaced efforts from seven runs on good to firm, I fear this might be too quick for Happy Romance, whose best form is on good/good to soft ground. Mitbaahy has at least made the frame in two of three defeats on this going. As for class, Annaf is unplaced in both C1 outings and Sandbeck is unplaced in all three and this is shown in the place stats as follows...

And at this point, I'm now discarding Annaf, Happy Romance and Sandbeck to leave me with the following in draw order...

I actually think that any of these are more than capable of making the frame here and with most bookies paying four places (Sky pay 5, of course!), I'm hoping to find an E/W bet or two from this group, odds permitting. I've re-arranged the half dozen into draw order, in case past similar contests here at Haydock have favoured a particular part of the draw, so let's check. I opened up the field size and the going parameters to give me more data to work with, but in these, as expected, there's no huge draw bias in a straight 5f here...

...which means that pace may well hold the key as it often does in these sprints. This is how this group have raced in their last four outings...

...and if repeated here, I'd expect The Platinum Queen and Live In The Dream to be contesting things from the start with the likes of Mitbaahy being waited with. If we then look at those races I used for the draw stats, you'll see that Mitbaahy's approach might not be the best here, as hold-up horses fare considerably worse than the other three racing styles...

And at this point, I'd probably omit Mitbaahy from my thoughts.

Summary

I've fairly crudely reduced a 14-runner field quickly down to five that I think could make the frame. I'm not really comfortable with large fields and this is my usual MO in these cases. I'm well aware that I may well have overlooked a winner or placer in the process, but you choose your method in this game!

It's only at this point that I look at the market and this is what I see...

The Platinum Queen 4/1
Dramatised
Royal Aclaim 13/2
Live In the Dream 13/2
Raasel 14/1

Sadly, I've got four of the top five in the market (I've only missed Twilight Calls), but Raasel is interesting at 14's. He won a Listed race here over course and distance this time last year and followed it up with a group 3 success at Sandown five weeks later before coming within a neck of landing the Gr2 King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in late July. He wasn't in the frame in two subsequent Gr1 contests as he closed out his season.

He didn't run on turf again until earlier this month when a decent fourth of fourteen in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and there's every chance he could match or better that result here, so I'm on at 14/1 E/W with Bet365.

As for the winner, I think it might come down to the two longer-priced runners Royal Aclaim and Live In the Dream. The latter will be tough to catch if away sharply and almost stole the palace House from the front on ground that might have been a little soft for him, whilst Royal Aclaim caught the eye as a 3yr old, especially when winning a Listed race at York and if she's race ready, then she's unexposed and might surprise a few of these.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/03/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.25 Warwick
  • 4.10 Haydock
  • 4.25 Ffos Las

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have generated the following...

...with both Your Own Story & the veteran Le Coeur Net running in one of our free races. Your Own Story's race look a better one on paper, so let's head towards the 4.10 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 3m4½f on soft ground...

Featured horse Your Own Story is the one of the ten to have won last time out, but all bar Shanty Alley, Equus Dreamer and Juge Et Parti have won at least once in their last five outings with No Cruise yet winning two of five and The Questioner two of three. Burbank, however has failed to complete the last three, Sam's Adventure hasn't finished his last two, Shanty Alley has two incompletes from five as does Fortified Bay.

In-form The Questioner is up in class here, but Shanty Alley, Sam's Adventure, Rath An Iuir and No Cruise Yet all drop down a level. Sam's Adventure is turned back out after just three days, as he unseated at the first at Carlisle, whilst Equus Dreamer's ten week break is the longest of the ten runners.

No Cruise Yet is the only one of the ten to have won over a similar trip to this, achieved via a course and distance win here three starts ago, whilst Sam's Adventure's 3m2f chase success in December 2019 is the only other Haydock win mustered by this field. Mind you, four of them have never even tackled a fence here, as shown by Instant Expert...

 

...where class dropper No Cruise Yet is the obvious eyecatcher, even at 7lbs above his last win. Fortified bay has some good numbers, but struggled off today's mark LTO and I should mention The Questioner, who has no relevant chase form under these conditions, but is unexposed after just two runs over fences. He won on debut, landing a 3m2f contest at Doncaster, which earned him a 6lb rise to a mark of 103 from which he duly finished third in the 3m6½f North Wales National at Bangor 12 days ago, going down by just four lengths, suggesting today's trip shouldn't be an issue and he's a soft ground winner over hurdles.

Based on similar recent races here at Haydock, you'd want to be on a horse that's up with the pace...

...and based on this field's last few outings...

...that's more good news for No Cruise Yet and Fortified Bay.

Summary

The bookies have Your Own Story (5/2) No Cruise Yet (4/1) and The Questioner (5/1) as the market principals and that's probably fair as they're the best three in the race in my opinion. That said, it's rare that the top three in the market are the first three home, so if one was to falter, that might open the door for Fortified Bay as an E/W bet, who might well outrun his 16/1 ticket (as of 6.30pm) and could be worth a quid or two, especially if your bookie pays four places.

As for the winner? It's No Cruise Yet for me at 4/1, he's in good form, scored best on Instant Expert and has the ideal pace profile for this race.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 18/02/23

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Another blustery day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are set to be...

  • 1.20 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 3.27 Gowran Park
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 5.30 Newcastle

Neither of my TJC Report runners appear to be in particularly good form, so I'm going to stay relatively close (approx 30 mile SW) from (my) home for a crack at the 3.50 Haydock, a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m4f on good to soft ground...

This looks (on paper, at least) a really open/competitive affair, a thought backed up be the fact that Hills (only book open at 3pm) had the first eleven in the betting split by just 5pts from 5/1 to 10/1! with Courtland the 18/1 outsider and the bottom weight 8 yr old does look the weakest to me too in a field where only Evander and If Not For Dylan won last time out, but the former hasn't raced for 689 days since scoring at Ludlow and the latter is up a class here, as is Garincha, whilst our two other class movers, Golden Whisky & Quid Pro Quo drop one and two classes respectively with the latter making a handicap debut 99 days after his last run where he was last of seven in a Cheltenham Grade 2.

Regarding form, only High Moon (placed in his last two) is without a win in five, although he did win six back almost a year ago. We know that Quid Pro Quo is on handicap debut already, but the card also says that Maypole Class has had wind surgery sometime in the last seven weeks and we're also told that the returning Evander has changed yards, but that's not quite true, it's more of a licencee name change with Josh Guerriero joining Oliver Greenall as joint-trainer during Evander's hiatus.

Garincha is the youngest here at 7yo, some 4 yrs younger than Magic Dancer and they are both among the ten in this race to have already won at a similar trip (Super Six & Courtland being the odd ones out), but only The Paddy Pie is a former Haydock winner, having won and placed in two efforts over course and distance. We know that Quid Pro Quo (99 days) and Evander (689d) have both been off for over three months, but the rest of the field have all raced inside two months, but seem spilt into two date ranges...

17-20 days off : Enzo D'Airy, Super Six, The Paddy Pie, High Moon, If Not For Dylan
48-59 days off : Golden Whisky, Magic Dancer, Maypole Class, Garincha, Courtland

We know that most of these should get the trip but only one has won here (only four have raced here), but Instant Expert can tell us more...

Golden Whisky has struggled in this grade at 1 from 11, but does have a win and a place from four at Class 2. Magic Dancer's 1/13 on good to soft is mainly hurdling form, he has one placed finish from three over fences. Enzo D'Airy is one from three over fences at this trip, but Maypole Class is probably a Class 4 runner. I'm a little surprised at The Paddy Pie's 1 from 9 on good to soft when his record is better on both Good and on Soft, so there's no reason why the ground should be an issue for him.

If we then consider the pace profiles of these runners, based on their last three or four outings, we see at least two definite groups forming, those that want to get on with it early doors and those that don't...

I'm not sure how Courtland will approach this to be honest, he tends to race prominently, but might inadvertently find himself back in mid-division if the six ranked above him all decide to make a go of it. What do I expect is that the ones towards the rear of the field will be the bottom four on that list.

Unfortunately there aren't many similar races to this in the Haydock programme and even with an expanded filter, we don't get much data from a search, but this is what we do see...

...where the out and out leaders (Evander/High Moon, perhaps?) end up getting beaten by those just in behind, which could bode well for The Paddy Pie, Enzo D'Airy, Super Six and Golden Whisky. Hold-up horses have struggled, which suggests a tough day for Quid Pro Quo, Maypole Class and Garincha, but If Not For Dylan won last time out after a change in tactics from hold-up to prominence. That was his first win in seven, since winning from an advanced position at Perth, so I suspect he might have more of a go at it today.

Summary

It could well turn out to be cracking race and it looks super competitive, so the smart advice is to walk away, put the kettle on or grab a beer and just sit and watch it. That said, I know some of you can't/won't do that, so to take the piece to a conclusion, I think I'd want to be with the likes of Enzo D'Airy on form/Instant Expert/pace, Super Six for his consistency and pace profile and also If Not For Dylan on form and possible pace.

These three are currently trading at 5/1, 15/2 and 9/1 with Hills who are paying four places here, so If Not For Dylan might not be a bad E/W bet at 9's.



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Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.



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