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Placepot Pointers – Sunday 24th June

PONTEFRACT – JUNE 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £31.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 80.4% units went through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 13/2

Race 2: 69.8% of the remaining units when through – 1/3* (Win only)

Race 3: 36.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 11/4 (5/2)

Race 4: 64.8% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 9/1 – 40/1

Race 5: 38.2% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 (11/8)

Race 6: 20.0% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4 & 7/1 (11/8)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Heavenly Bliss) & 4 (Poetry)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Hazarfya) & 1 (Beauvais)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Dr Richard Kimble), 2 (Rainbow Rebel) & 3 (Indomeneo)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Alwaysandforever) & 5 (Cribbs Causeway)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Frederic), 1 (Suegioo) & 8 (Becky The Thatcher)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Excellent Times), 2 (Crotchet), 4 (Procedure) & 3 (Revived)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: Mark Johnston (not represented this year) might have been frightened away by the two Newmarket raiders HEAVENLY BLISS and POETRY who are listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  Sir Michael Stoute (HEAVENLY BLISS) will be looking for compensation following the defeat of his 2/1 market leader twelve months ago when finding one too good on the day. POETRY is a Kingman representative and Michael Bell has found a half decent chance for his January foal to score at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured one silver medal between them alongside a Placepot position.

 

2.30: Mark Johnston’s Thirsk winner Bayshore Freeway is not easily overlooked, especially as Mark’s three-year-old humped 10-2 to victory the last day.  That said, the two Newmarket raider look particularly strong on this occasion, with HAZARFIYA marginally preferred to Saeed Bon Suroor’s debut Ripon winner BEAUVAIS.  Sir Michael Stoute’s first named raider ran in the Cheshire Oaks last time out and this drop in grade should bring about a victory, especially with the trainer currently boasting a 33% strike rate via his last seven winners, statistics which have produced level stake profits of 22 points via some of the most difficult races to win on the entire racing calendar!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

3.00: Only eighteen three-year-olds have contested this event to date, producing four winners, four seconds, two thirds and three fourth placed efforts in the process, whilst ten of the eleven winner have carried 8-13 or more. Unfortunately, the relevant trio of three-year-olds fail the weight trend but that said, it’s difficult to leave DR RICHARD KIMBLE and INDOMENEO out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.  I highlighted the chance of 12/1 shot RAINBOW REBEL at Chelmsford the other night (returned at 9/1) and it’s significant that Mark’s runner up has been declared just three days later.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

3/13—Trinity Star (2 x good & good to firm)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 8-4 during the last twelve years and having pinned my faith on the last two 9/1 and even money (four-year-old) winners, I’ll opt for ALWAYSANDFOREVER to complete the hat trick in a fascinating contest.  Her nine length victory at Windsor last time out had to be seen to be believed and with Luca Cumani champing at the bit to find winners just now (Luca had no runners at Royal Ascot during the entire week), we can safely presume that Ryan Moore’s mount will be well fired up today.  Luca boasts a 24% strike rate at this venue down the years and it is surely significant that ALWAYSANDFOREVER is his first runner at the track this season.  CRIBBS CAUSEWAY is preferred to Mark Johnston tigress Titi Makfi, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners.

 

4.00: I have made reference to these Pontefract staying events plenty of times, but I reiterate that this contest resembles a graded greyhound race with the greatest respect to our canine friends, whereby horses go into the traps shaking hooves, begging the question, whose turn is it to win today?  If you want proof of that statement, you only have to digest the fact that four of the six course winners which contest the Placepot races at Pontefract this afternoon line up for this event.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, which suggests that SUEGIOO and last year’s beaten favourite FREDERIC enter the equation.  Add BECKY THE THATCHER into the mix and we should get through to the Placepot finale, providing we have survived the first four legs successfully.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three favourites which prevailed from a win perspective during the study period.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/2—Frederic (good)

2/3—Win Place And Sho (good to firm & good to soft)

1/2—Medicine Hat (good)

1/2—Becky The Thatcher (good to firm)

 

4.30: PROCEDURE is a 9/1 chance with four leading firms this morning which looks a tad big given Sir Muchael Stoute’s current form (see full details in the 2.30 analysis).  That said, the claims of EXCELLENT TIMES and CROTCHET at the top of the market are impossible to ignore.  I have this nagging worry that a non-runner might raise its ugly head in the last leg our favourite wager, whereby I am also including Michael Bell’s raider REVIVED into the equation, given that the race would develop in to a frightening ‘win only’ contest should my notion evolve.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Pontefract programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £378.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.2% units went through – 5/2* - 20/1 – 16/1

Race 2: 32.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 25/1 – 7/2*

Race 3: 17.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 10/3 (5/4)

Race 4: 64.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 4/1 – 33/1

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 13/2 7/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* - 8/1 – 11/2

 

  • Speculative subscribers might have hoped for a bigger dividend last year, given that the ‘Pot was worth £291.88 after five legs. Unfortunately for those that opposed the even money favourite (Bristol Missile) in the Placepot finale, the market leader accounted for 61.9% of the remaining units which in Placepot terms meant that the jolly was an 8/13 chance to finish in the frame - before going on to score.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 4 (Mokaatil), 1 (Sound Of Silence) & 3 (Koditime)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Shamshon), 3 (Rio Ronaldo) & 11 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Chiefofchiefs), 1 (Silver Line) & 6 (Graphite Storm)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Flavius Titus) & 6 (Zalshah)

Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ibraz), 1 (Deyaarna) & 9 (Simply Breathless)

Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Marechal Ney) & 5 (Jamih)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum in recent times however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/1 during the last thirteen years.  Nine of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure.  The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour MOKAATIL and SOUND AND SILENCE, whilst the chance of KODITIME is also respected. There are bits and pieces of support for Rock On Baileys at the time of around at around 14/1 which makes for interesting reading

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via thirteen renewals, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.

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Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Haddaf (good)

1/3—Spoof (good)

 

2.35: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster.  The trio that should give us a decent shout for our respective monies are SHAMSHON, RIO RONALDO and ISLAND OF LIFE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, including two successful market leaders which were both returned at 5/2.

Record of the five course winners in the second event:

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (good to firm)

1/4—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/3—Desert Ace (good to soft)

1/1—Jashma (good)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eighteen available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the six winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders SILVER LINE and GRAPHITE STORM are not discounted from each way and Placepot perspective, though it is five-year-old CHIEFOFCHIEFS which might upset the vintage trends on this occasion.  As a self-confessed stats anorak, I can’t dismiss the fact that James Doyle is only having his third ride for trainer Charlie Fellowes (50% strike rate thus far), whilst Charlie won with his only other runner at the Esher circuit this season.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on Placepot positions, before the subsequent trio of favourites evened up the score by winning their respective events.

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/4—Manson (good to firm)

1/1—Chiefofchiefs (good)

1/4—Almoreb (good to soft)

 

3.50: Seven of the last twelve winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which bring FLAVIUS TITUS strongly into the equation.  Roger Varian’s colt looks something of a Placepot banker, whilst there are couple of ‘mistakes’ in the trade press this morning that need reporting, especially with a £2.90 price tag relating to the printed word!  The lads/lasses in the office have ‘priced up’ ZALSHAH at 16/1 which looks well wide of the mark, whilst the reporter on the race offered the following words to round up their comment by literally finishing a sentence about one of the contenders “he was earlier promising”!  Now I can’t talk about ‘typos’ by other people without the term stones/glasshouses being thrown in my direction, but this is printed matter for goodness sake; at £2.90 a copy!  My subscription page today will carry umpteen thousands of words/numerals but I’m hoping not to have many errors thrown in like that one!

Favourite factor: Twelve of the thirteen favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming only five Placepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 two years ago before a 20/1 chance reared its ugly head twelve months later.  Twenty of the 37 horses (54%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card: 

1/1—Rum Runner (good to soft)

 

4.25: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. The weight stats dilute interest in SIMPLY BREATHLESS to a fashion, though I still cannot bring myself to discard Clive Cox’s raider from a Placepot perspective.  There are no ‘trend worries’ (apart from favourite issues reported below) relating to IBRAZ and DEYAARNA fortunately.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last eighteen years, whilst just eight of the twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race: 

1/3—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

5.00: There was money overnight for MARECHAL NEY and the 11/4 on offer by three firms at the time of writing might not last too long this morning regarding John Gosden’s Frankel colt.  Indeed, connections of Robert Havlin’s mount might have most to fear from stable companion JAMIH.  I cannot entertain the possibility of both inmates finishing out of the frame.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

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1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

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Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

 

2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

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Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 5th May

NEWMARKET – MAY 5

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends At Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day from the last seven years:

2017: £98.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

2016: £16,246.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

2015: £344.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2014: £150.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £337.10 (8 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £84.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2011: £137.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,485.54 - 46 favourites in total - 16 winners - 12 placed - 18 unplaced (exact science)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 45.8% units went through – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

Race 2: 40.3% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/3* - 12/1

Race 3: 86.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* & 7/2

Race 4: 84.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 7/2 – 11/2

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 8/1 – 7/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 32.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 20/1 (11/10)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Sharja Bridge), 7 (Oasis Charm) & 13 (Another Eclipse)

Leg 2 (2.20): 9 (Havana Grey), 3 (Juducial) & 8 (Mabs Cross)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (Defoe) & 3 (Khalidi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Masar), 13 (Saxon Warrior) & 2 (Elarqam)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Tribal Quest) & 8 (Galloway Hills)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Key Victory), 5 (Old Persian) & 4 (Lynwood Gold)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds come to the party having won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst securing 19 of the last available 37 Placepot/each way positions.  Eleven of the thirteen winners of the race have carried weights of nine stones of less, whereby my short list comprises of SHARJA BRIDGE, OASIS CHARM and ANOTHER ECLIPSE. It’s worth noting that my trio against the field last year netted the 10/1 winner and a 37/1 Exacta forecast. This year’s threesome is listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing, whilst the reserve nomination is offered to Dommersen.

Favourite factor: Six of the fourteen favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one winner.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

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1/4—Spark Plug (good to firm)

1/1—Tricorn (good to firm)

1/5—Examiner (good to soft)

1/2—Third Time Lucky (good)

1/2—Breden (good to firm)

 

2.20 (Palace House Stakes): Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of this event with JUDICIAL being the pick of the pair of vintage representatives from my viewpoint. Four-year-olds boast the same vintage stats and there is little double that the Michael Dods entry MABS CROSS will give investors a decent run for their collective monies.  Whether either of them will cope with HAVANA GREY here remains to be seen, with the terms and conditions of the contest very much favouring Karl Burke’s three-year-old Havana Gold colt on this occasion. Alpha Delphini couldn’t cope with the opposition in this last year with horses rated 110, let alone the Havana Grey mark of 113 this time around.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eighteen favourites have won, whilst 12/22 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

 

2.55 (Jockey Club Stakes): Four and five-year-olds had won the last fifteen renewals between them with the ‘younger set’ having claimed eight of the last nine contests with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion.  DEFOE looks nailed on from what we witnessed at Newbury a few weeks back.  KHALIDI might be worth another chance, from a Placepot perspectuive at least, just in case 70% of the Placepot units go up in smoke if Roger Varian’s hot pot fails to live up to live up to expectations.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen renewals have fallen the way of favourites, though just one other market leader has struck gold during the last twenty years. 12/21 jollies have claimed Placepot positions in recent times.

Record of course winner in the Jockey Club Stakes:

1/2—Khalidi (good to firm)

1/14—Master The World (good)

 

3.35 (2000 Guineas): Aidan O’Brien has won this race eight times in all though it should be noted that his 4/5 chance (Air Force Blue) ran a poor race two years ago, just in case you were jumping in with your ‘size twelves’ this morning.  That said, Aidan looks to have a strong hand this time around, though I prefer his two main contenders in reverse order as far as the betting is concerned.  Aidan said of his Racing Post Trophy SAXON WARRIOR winner shortly after the race; “He's a very special horse, we think. He's done everything we've asked of him and he's only been a baby. I'd say there's no doubt he'll be better on better ground”.  Value for money has always ruled my heart as long as positive trends are in place whereby SAXON WARRIOR is joined by MASAR and ELARQAM in my Placepot mix.  I have not entirely ruled Roaring Lion out of the equation, twenty four hours in advance of the first classic of the season.

Favourite factor: Only five market leaders have won the 2000 Guineas since the turn of the Millennium, albeit 14/18 gold medallists scored at a top priced of 11/1.  That said, over 25% per cent of the Placepot positions during the study period have been gained by horses starting at 25/1 or more!  Four 100/1 chances have finished in the frame since the turn of the Millennium alongside the 150/1 runner up in 2013, notwithstanding the 40/1 winner four years ago.

2000 Guineas draw factor in recent years (2017 result offered first):

3-5-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-8-3 (13 ran-good to soft)

16-19-5 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

12-16-4 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-5-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-9-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

17-3-4 (15-good to firm)

6-14-9 (15 ran-good)

10-19-7 (24 ran-good to firm)

9-11-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-14-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

11-1-4 (14 ran-good)

Record of the three course winners in the 2000 Guineas:

1/1—Elarqam (good to soft)

1/1—Masar (good)

1/2—Roaring Lion (good to soft)

 

4.10: 20/25 horses to secure Placepot positions via just the eight renewals thus far have carried weights of nine stones or less, stats which include all eight winners, four of which won at 25/1-16/1-16/1-12/1.  Accordingly, my short list against the field consists of TRIBAL QUEST and GALLOWAY HILLS.  Charlie Appleby’s War front gelding TRIBAL QUEST carries sixteen ounces over the ideal burden but that said, Charlie’s outrageous form this spring could outweigh the scales on this occasion.  I’m not certain that I would back GALLOWAY HILLS to win the contest, though his Placepot credentials are first rate.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex, Chagatai could prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: All eight favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners at 9/2-9/2-11/10.

 

4.45 (Newmarket Stakes): There is little point of waffling on about form details here when the plain and simple truth is that a non-runner prior to flag fall will put all of us on the defensive. given that the ‘dead eight’ advantage would be lost.  The Godolphin pair KEY VICTORY and OLD PERSIAN go straight onto the team sheet, joined by Mark Johnston’s LYNWOOD GOLD, especially as the trainer has secured two of the last three renewals when represented.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last sixteen years, whilst 11/20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd April

WINDSOR – APRIL 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 10/1 – 5/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 2: 36.8% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 16/1 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 42.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 25/1 – 10/3 (11/4)

Race 4: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 14/1

Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* - 20/1 – 10/1

 

*Speculative punters were entitled to believe that were in line for a fine dividend after four races on last year’s corresponding card, the first quartet of favourites having finished out of the frame.

The Placepot was worth £26.50 by then but with one third of the surviving units (after four races) making it through to the end, the dividend only reached £80.30, even though three of the five successful Placepot position in races five and six were retuned at 20/1, 14/1 & 10/1.

Unfortunately, the two winning favourites put paid to any thoughts of a three/four figure sum being recorded.

The fifth race favourite accounted for 65.6% of the total Placepot units in that event, whilst 40.9% of the remaining units in the Placepot finale were riding on the market leader.

As a wise man once told me, it rarely (if ever) pays to presume!

Hopefully you joined me in winning a few quid on our favourite bet yesterday.  Upwards and onward….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (4.50): 14 (Fairway To Heaven), 3 (Nuini) & 12 (Ubla)

Leg 2 (5.20): 5 (Blasim), 2 (Nina Petrovna) & 1 (Karalini)

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Leg 3 (5.50): 7 (Kinglami), 6 (Acclaim The Nation) & 5 (Rebecca Rocks)

Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Stream Song) & 1 (Zoraya)

Leg 5 (6.50): 1 (Fajjaj) & 2 (Loyal Promise)

Leg 6 (7.20): 11 (Iconic Belle), 7 (Prerogative) & 10 (Strictly Art)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.50:  All three winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1 and the trio which make most appeal include dual course and distance winner FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN, NUTINI (1/1 at Windsor on good to soft ground – albeit running from higher in the handicap) and UBLA in a race which should not prove difficult to win.

Favourite factor: The last two favourites have finished out of the frame since the inaugural 5/2 market leader obliged three years ago.

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Nutini (good to soft)

2/13—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)

2/4—Fairway To Heaven (good to firm & good to soft)

 

5.20: The brief trends point towards BLASIM running a big race with trainer David Evans having won both renewals to date with fillies that were making their second appearance.  BLASIM ran well enough to snare a bronze medal at the first time of asking at Chelmsford and would only have to offer a moderate amount of improvement here to go close.  KARALINI has to enter calculations with Mick Channon’s runners going so well at present, whilst Archie Watson saddles his third runner on turf (NINA PETROVNA), the first two having prevailed.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by finished second in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  Unfortunately, last year’s 5/2 market leader failed to follow suit.

 

5.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals whereby plenty of respect is paid to REBECCA ROCKS, though better conditions would have added confidence.  KINGLAMI has finished ‘ in the three’ in 6/11 assignments at this venues, statistics which include three victories. Connections would prefer even softer ground for John O’Shea’s raider who has won 6/12 on soft/heavy ground.  Northern raider ACCLAIM THE NATION represents Eric Alston who has saddled his last two runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders have obliged to date, whilst only three of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Kinglami (good to firm – soft – heavy)

 

6.20: Plenty of top stables are represented here though the jungle drums appear to be beating for STREAM SONG who is the latest inmate off the conveyor belt that belongs to John Gosden.  John has a good few winners last week, albeit that he failed to live up to some recent years when taking the Newmarket and Newbury meetings by storm.  That said, STREAM SONG seems to be the only horse here that exchange players are interested in, whilst I will tentatively offer ZORAYA as the alternative each way play.

Favourite factor: This is the first of the new races on the Windsor card

 

6.50: Yielding ground offers no concern to connections of FAJJAJ on the face of what we have witnessed thus far and with plenty of fancy entries to his name, Hugo Palmer’s Dawn Approach colt should make short work of this field, albeit LOYAL PROMISING looks a half decent prospect for the Martyn Meade team.  Stable companion Fabianski could outrun his odds I guess, though Imaginitive might snare the bronze medal on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The second of the new contests on the Windsor programme.

 

7.20: Shorter priced horses only make limited appeal in our last race whereby I will include three runners which hail from in-form stables to hopefully land the dividend for us, namely ICONIC BELLE (Mick Channon), PREROGATIVE (Tony Carroll) and STRICTLY ART (Alan Bailey).

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.45 Bangor : Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, hampered 1st, chased leaders 5 out, pushed along next, stayed on same pace from 2 out)

We seek an upturn in fortunes via Monday's...

2.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 5,  1m7.5f Handicap Chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £4549 to the winner...

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Why?

This 8 yr old gelding has one win and one place from three runs over fences this year, all over 2m 0.5f on heavy ground and he was only narrowly beaten (0.75 lengths) when 21 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse at relatively nearby Newcastle last time out nine days.

He jumped much better than the winner and the omission of the last fence that day possibly made a difference to the end result, but who knows?

He also has one win and one place from three efforts over fences at this trip and this slight drop in distance allied to better racing ground might just swing it for him/us.

His trainer James Ewart has actually been profitable to back blindly in NH handicaps over recent years, as his 79 winners from 523 (15.1% SR) since the start of 2013 have been worth 81.1pts at an ROI of 15.5%, but rather than blanket betting, let's just take a quick look at the chasers from that dataset...

  • on soft ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 16.46pts (+29.4%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 12/34 (35.3%) for 14.48pts (+42.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/33 (30.3%) for 27.32pts (+82.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.67pts (+115.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

2.45 Bangor : Red Devil Star @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, hampered 1st, chased leaders 5 out, pushed along next, stayed on same pace from 2 out)

We seek an upturn in fortunes via Monday's...

2.20 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 5,  1m7.5f Handicap Chase (5yo+) on soft ground worth £4549 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding has one win and one place from three runs over fences this year, all over 2m 0.5f on heavy ground and he was only narrowly beaten (0.75 lengths) when 21 lengths clear of the 3rd place horse at relatively nearby Newcastle last time out nine days.

He jumped much better than the winner and the omission of the last fence that day possibly made a difference to the end result, but who knows?

He also has one win and one place from three efforts over fences at this trip and this slight drop in distance allied to better racing ground might just swing it for him/us.

His trainer James Ewart has actually been profitable to back blindly in NH handicaps over recent years, as his 79 winners from 523 (15.1% SR) since the start of 2013 have been worth 81.1pts at an ROI of 15.5%, but rather than blanket betting, let's just take a quick look at the chasers from that dataset...

  • on soft ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 16.46pts (+29.4%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 12/34 (35.3%) for 14.48pts (+42.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/33 (30.3%) for 27.32pts (+82.8%)
  • and here at Hexham : 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.67pts (+115.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sky Full Of Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 10th April

SOUTHWELL (NH) – APRIL 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.0% units went through – 6/1 – 2/1* - 11/2

Race 2: 45.8% of the remaining units when through – 10/3* & 5/1

Race 3: 93.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 12/1 – 7/1

Race 4: 37.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 10/3 (3/1)

Race 5: 73.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 50/1 – 7/2

Race 6: 53.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 – 16/1 – 3/1 (5/2)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Southwell (NH): 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Mondo Cane), 4 (Ulis De Vassy) & 1 (Beni Light)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Achille) & 3 (Riddlestown)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Casa Tall) & 2 (Whoshotwho)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Sandhurst Lad), 4 (Western Wave) & 1 (Shinooki)

Leg 5 (4.05): 3 (Pineapple Rush), 4 (With Discretion) & 2 (Phoeniciana)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Cosmic King) & 6 (Tickanrun)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: More Placepot success yesterday, albeit we ‘only’ claimed one fifth of the £190.50 Ludlow dividend. Although MONDO CANE has only win via 12 assignments at the track to date, it’s worth noting that the eleven-year-old has finished ‘in the three’ six times down the years, whilst the success was gained under soft conditions.  Both of the course victories for ULIS DE VASSY were won on soft going, whilst BENI LIGHT completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

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Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader via three renewals though that said, two favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

1/12—Mondo Cane (soft)

2/3—Ulis De Vassy (2 x soft)

2/25—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)

 

2.30: ACHILLE looks a typical soft/heavy raider for Venetia Williams who saddled a couple of winners yesterday.  RIDDLESTOWN is the lone course winner in the field and though the trade press would have you believe that better ground would be appreciated by the eleven-year-old gelding, Riddlestown is a three time winner under soft conditions.  Unless the rain north of Watford becomes heavy, I believe it could be a close run affair between the two nominated thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor: Two of the three contests have been won by favourites though the other market leader finished out of the money.

Record of the course winner in the field:

7/24—Riddlestown (4 x good & 3 x soft)

 

3.00: It shows the quality of the rest of the horses in the field that good ground winner WHOSHOTWHO is rated heads and shoulders above this lot, aside from CASA TALL, with this pair fully expected to dominate proceedings well before the business end of proceedings comes into play.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Whoshotwho (good)

 

3.35: WESTERN WAVE and SHINOOKI are two alternative win and place options to SANDHURST LAD who I readily admit looks a more likely winner.  Richard Johnson’s mount is the first of three booked rides on the card for the champion jockey.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites via two renewals has claimed a Placepot position to date, albeit it was via a (10/3) victory.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Shinooki (good to soft)

 

4.05: WITH DISCRETION and PINEAPPLE RUSH are the likeliest winners of the contest though PHOENICIANA remains something thing of a dark horse on behalf of the Lucy Wadham team.  PINEAPPLE RUSH is Richard Johnson’s second ride on the card and is marginally preferred to WITH DISCRETION on this occasion/

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader prevailed.

 

4.35: There is plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue for TICKANRUN whereby James Bowen could add to his total of 50 winners which he has achieved in double quick time thus far.  COSMIC KING arguably stands in his way here making his first appearance for Fergal O’Brien who knows how to sweeten up new inmates to his yard – and then some!

Favourite factor: 7/4 and 5/2 favourites have been sunk without trace either side of the successful 7/5 market leader two years ago.

 

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

1/1—Katahdin (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 10th April 2018

Monday's Runner was...

8.15 Wolverhampton : The King's Steed @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 2/1 (Led after 1f, ridden over 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

And now to Tuesday's...

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

PC Dixon @ 7/2 or even 4/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  2m novice handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

Well, in what looks a fairly average sort of contest, we've a 5yr old gelding who despite not winning often enough comes here in good nick, having finished 242212 in his last six runs. Interestingly the recent win was here at Hexham 25 days ago over today's course and distance, also at Class 4 on heavy ground when partnered by today's jockey Thomas Dowson who will yet again take a valuable three pounds off a horse already carrying less weight than his rivals.

To date over hurdles, this horse's record includes the following of relevance today...

  • 1 win, 2 places from 4 on heavy ground
  • 1 win, 2 places from 3 in 5-runner races
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 over 2 miles
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 under jockey Thomas Dowson
  • 1 from 1 here at Hexham
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

And his recent form makes him a qualifier for my 1234 microsystem, where I look for horses who won 2 starts ago (hence the 1) and were then placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 234!) next/last time out. There are of course some other rules, otherwise we'd have hundred of qualifiers per month and the addition rules (which aren't as complicated as they look in print) are...

...UK NH handicaps up to 3.5 miles / all going except the rarely seen good to firm / February to November / 2013 to now / an OR ranging from -2lb to +11llbs from LTO / running at -2 to +2 classes from LTO / and running over trips varying from -4.5f to +8.5f from LTO...

That's a fairly wide-reaching set of specs, of course, but this generalised approach has been good for 185 winner from 851 qualifiers (21.7% SR) since the start of February 2013, yielding 314pts profit at an excellent ROI of 36.9%.

Once again, I get that you might not want to back so many horses blindly from one micro, so you could take any of the following profitable angles, all applicable today...

  • hurdlers : 89/434 (20.5) for 152.9pts (+35.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 95/405 (23.5%) for 140.7pts (+34.7%)
  • in March/April : 54/250 (21.6%) for 139.9pts (+56%)
  • at trips of 2m 0.5f and shorter : 50/201 (24.9%) for 170.9pts (+85%)
  • stepping up 1 class : 48/193 (24.9%) for 170.7pts (+88.4%)
  • in novice handicaps : 29/126 (23%) for 48.5pts (+38.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 26/94 (27.7%) for 60.7pts (+64.5%)
  • on heavy ground : 19/79 (24.1%) for 35.9pts (+45.5%)
  • and here at Hexham : 10/38 (26.3%) for 22.8pts at an ROI of 60.1%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on PC Dixon @ 7/2 or even 4/1 BOG which was available from Paddy Power and Betfair respectively (I'll be using 7/2 for my official results) at 5.05pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 15th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £58.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 87.4% units went through – 6/4*, 7/2 & 4/1

Race 2: 26.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1, 16/1, 9/1 & 66/1 (8/1)

Race 3: 43.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4*, 8/1 & 40/1

Race 4: 67.9% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 5/6*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 14/1, 10/1, 10/1 7/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 56.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8*, 12/1 & 20/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 4 (Invitation Only) & 10 (Shattered Love)

Leg 2 (2.10): 12 (Sort It Out), 17 (Forza Milan), 19 (Protek Des Flos) & 13 (Delta Work)

Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Un De Sceaux) & 6 (Frodon)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Unowhatimeanharry), 3 (L’Ami Serge) & 2 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.10): 16 (Kings Socks), 20 (Guitar Pete), 21 (Willie Boy) & 18 (Midnight Shot)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Marias Benefit) & 2 (Laurina)

 

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: 11 of the 21 Placepot positions have been claimed by seven-year-olds, statistics which include five (20/1--7/1--4/1—4/1*** & 6/4) winners.  INVITATION ONLY and SHATTERED LOVE are the vintage representatives which jump of the page, with KEMBOY offered up as a lively outsider to consider if you want to take on the shorter priced selections.  TERREFORT in the other horse in the field which could potentially win the event from my viewpoint, though I’m sticking with the vintage stats, just for a change!

Favourite factor: A changing scenario to the terms and conditions of this event means that we have just seven renewals to take into account.  Six of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, three of which won their relevant events at 6/4 (twice) & 4/1***.

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2.10: 11 of the last 14 winners of the 'Pertempts' have carried 11-4 or less, statistics which eliminate three of the 24 runners this time around.  SORT IT OUT, FORZA MILAN, PROTEK DES FLOS and DELTA WORK are offered against the remaining 20 contenders, the pick of which might prove to be Glenloe.

Favourite factor: Only two market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 14 years (one winner), which from an each way perspective in a fiercely competitive hurdle event, is particularly important for the layers.  Going back further in time, it's worth noting that just two market leaders has prevailed during the last 21 years.

 

2.50: You will be in a much better position to assess this event (particularly from a Placepot perspective) when an official comment is made about the possible participation of DOUVAN who fell yesterday when going well in the ‘Queen Mother’.  Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket, I’m opting for FRODON to accompany UN DE SCEAUX in my permutation because if I offer stable companion Douvan into the mix and he is withdrawn, the units will be transferred onto to the favourite which I already have on  my side.  FRODON offers some value for money in the contest anyway, with Paul Nicholls finally making a challenge this week in terms of his number of entries. I would be shouting louder that most if Cue Card returns to his best form but he had a mighty tough race at Ascot the last day and this might prove to be a race too far this winter, given his advancing years.

Favourite factor: Four of the last six favourites have won whilst eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.30: UNOWHATIMEANHARRY was beaten at odds of 5/6 in this event last year and up until the recent rain/snow arrived, I had put a line through his name but market support over the last few days has intensified whereby I now believe that ‘Harry’ could become involved in the finish again.  The ground might have gone against THE NEW ONE, not necessarily because Nigel’s grand servant cannot handle such conditions but over this type of trip, he remains an unknown quantity.  My heart is ruling my head by including the old boy from a Placepot perspective alongside L’AMI SERGE who looks a tad too big in the betting at 12/1, odds which are generally available at the time of writing.  Wholestone receives the reserve nomination at around the 20/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 25 market leaders—9 winners—8 placed—8 unplaced.  First three in betting: 69 representatives—16 winners—23 placed—30 unplaced.

 

4.10: Known for many years as the 'Mildmay of Flete', this event takes on a ‘new’ name these days though whatever titles are prefixed to contests at the meeting, trainers still target their horses for the respective events the same way. Although eight-year-olds have 'only' won five of the last 19 renewals, win and place investors should consider that vintage representatives have secured 31 of the 65 available place positions during the study period.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have claimed just three victories and eleven place positions, leaving horses lower down the handicap to run riot.  Putting the stats and facts together I’ll offer a short list of KINGS SOCKS, GUITAR PETE, WILLIE BOY and MIDNIGHT SHOT.  Some money was developing in the (realistic) positive exchange queue for King’s Odyssey at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite (six years ago) has obliged since 1999, whilst ‘recent’ winners having included those returned at 66/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-25/1-18/1—16/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.  That said, eight of the 15 market leaders during the study period finished in the frame.

 

4.50: Willie Mullins has won both renewals and LAURINA is likely to be another Odds on chance for the trainer, despite Ruby Walsh missing out on the ride (through injury) this time around.  There is much to be said for offering fancied horses in the last leg of our favourite bet, especially at the bigger meetings.  We can lay off at extremely short prices in place terms if we have reached the final leg safely, if the ‘Pot’ is looking as though it will pay a decent dividend.  That is not the only reason for adding MARIAS BENEFIT into the equation however, because I firmly believe that the six-year-old will give the favourite a real run for her money.  CAP SOLEIL easily appeals as the alternative (each way) selection of you are looking to take on the shorter priced contenders.

Favourite factor: Willie Mullins trained favourites have won the two renewals at odds of 11/8 & 8/11.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Cheltenham card on Thursday:

11 runners—Willie Mullins

8—Paul Nicholls

8—Nigel Twiston-Davies

7—Nicky Henderson

7—Colin Tizzard

6—Gordon Elliott

5—Henry De Bromhead

4—Warren Greatrex

3—Harry Fry

3—Philip Hobbs

3—David Pipe

3—Venetia Williams

+ 50 different trainers who each saddle just one or two runners on the card

118 declared runners (120 last year)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hexham: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Towcester: £17.00 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 laced – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 15th March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bernies Boy @ 10/3 BOG  WON at 4/1 Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to lead close home, winning by half a length.

And now we move on to Thursday's...

3.45 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Itstimeforapint @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4m handicap chase (5yo+) on heavy ground worth £7, 148 to the winner...

Why?

Well, he's a 10 yr old in decent nick after wining over 3m5.5f at Bangor on heavy ground last time out under today's jockey Derek Fox. That was 34 days ago, giving him ample time to rest ahead of a race his trainer, Lucinda Russell, seems to target and has actually won it in each of the last two years.

Her yard is thankfully emerging from a quiet spell and her last six runners have finished 232112, which is very encouraging ahead of a visit to a track where she has done really well generally rather than just this particular race.

In fact, since the start of 2012, her runners are 54/289 (18.7% SR) for 86pts (+29.8% ROI) here at Hexham and those figures include...

  • males at 50/235 (21.3% SR) for 107.1pts (+45.6%)
  • aged 6 to 12 yr old : 43/221 (19.5%) for 93.8pts (+42.4%)
  • handicappers are 37/196 (18.9%) for 72.9pts (+37.2%)
  • those who ran in the past five weeks : 34/155 (21.9%) for 107.7pts (+69.5%)
  • chasers are 23/125 (23.2%) for 66pts (+52.8%)
  • in March : 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.3pts (+66.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/23 (21.7%) for 17.6pts (+76.7%)

And if from all that data above you just wanted a micro system with around 10-15 bets a year, then 6-12 yo male HC chasers running within 5 weeks of their ast outing are 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 66pts (+113.7% ROI) with March runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 16.81pts (+240.1%) and LTO winners doubled up twice from 6 attempts (33.3%) for 20.09pts (+334.9%).

This is actually our boy's second visit to this venue, as he came here in 2016 and won this race! He's 2 from 3 on heavy ground over fences and was sired by Portrait Gallery, whose 10 yr old jumpers are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 69.7pts (+316.8% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these 22 jumpers (all male chasers!) are...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 34.7pts (+288.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 27.85pts (309.4%) after a break of 26-45 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 43.6pts (+872%) on heavy ground.

...steering us inexporably towards...a 1pt win bet on Itstimeforapint @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Hills and a tleast half a dozen others at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 22nd November

KEMPTON - NOVEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 3 (Plead), 4 (Jive Talking) & 2 (Hairdryer)

Leg 2 (4.40): 2 (Dashing Dusty), 4 (Roman Spinner) & 2 (Give Em A Clump)

Leg 3 (5.10): 10 (Salute The Soldier) & 5 (Flavius Titus)

Leg 4 (5.40): 6 (Qaysar) & 2 (Crack On Crack On)

Leg 5 (6.10): 1 (Blue Mist) & 8 (Tanseeq)

Leg 6 (6.40): 9 (Accidental Agent), 13 (Second Thought) & 2 (Khafoo Shememi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: With poor racing generally in place today, I thought I would offer this all weather meeting to offer a chance of a ‘get out of jail free’ card, if the NH sport earlier in the day has not worked out well for you.  Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 21 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all eight winners.  The top five horses in the betting at the time of writing hail from the superior weight trend, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PLEAD (if getting away on terms on this occasion), JIVE TAKING and HARIDRYER who deserves a win following some half decent placed efforts of late.  SOLVEIG’S SONG won this event at 33/1 last year and there will be horses at similar prices with less chance of winning running at Kempton this evening.  Holly Doyle negates the fact that Steve Woodman’s raider is running ‘out of the handicap’, to a fashion at least.
Favourite factor: All eight favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at prices ranging between 8/1 and 33/1.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Tee It Up Tommo

2/11—Buckland Beau

2/16—Biotic

2/11—Solveig’s Song

 

4.40:  Jamie Osborne did not enjoy the best of years on the turf front but the popular trainer has got his act together of late, boasting recent stats of 7/25, a ratio which offers a level stake profit of 46 points during the period.  It’s significant (accordingly) that Jamie has declared three runners on the card, the first of which is DASHING DUSTY who has been gelded going into his first handicap assignment.  Others for the mix include course winner ROMAN SPINNER and GIVE EM A CLUMP who hails from the David Evans camp which has posted a winner on each of the last two days.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Secretario

1/2—Roman Spinner

 

5.10: The BHA are at it again by naming this as a new race because of its ‘novice status’ even though the distance, class classification and everything else is the same as it has been since the Doomsday Book was signed!  I am leaving my stats in though obviously, you can decide whether to take any notice of my findings down the years. SALUTE THE SOLDIER has been the subject of overnight support in no uncertain terms and given the good record of favourites in this event down the years (see below), Clive Cox’s Sepoy colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with a really good Newbury debut effort under his belt.  FLAVIUS TITUS is the obvious danger given that jungle drums have only conspicuous relating to the newcomers by their absence.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply if you ignore the BHA ‘brief’.   I’m quick to jump on the backs of the lads/lasses in the trade press office who get the prices base over apex on occasions but their 8/13 quote about Richard Hannon’s once raced Choisir colt QAYSAR looks to be spot on after an excellent Newmarket effort on debut last month.  Nothing else is jumping off the page at the time of writing whereby I am offering CRACK ON CRACK ON as the alternative each way play in the race, despite the fact that he has plenty to find with the selection via Newmarket form.  If Clive Cox only had two runners travelling today I could have thought that his Havana Gold colt was merely keeping Salute The Soldier company in the horsebox, but that is not the case.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

6.10: The same  BHA comment applies to this juvenile event, whereby I will simply let you decide who is right/wrong!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that BLUE MIST has a wide enough draw to limit enthusiasm relating to his latest 5/4 quote which is backed by exchange rates at the time of writing.  Equally however, it is nigh impossible to leave Roger Charlton Makfi gelding out of the Placepot equation.  The additional furlong here might help TANSEEQ improve on his latest Kempton seven furlong effort, albeit not much improvement would be needed to reach the frame here I suspect.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/13 & 10/11) successful market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

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1/1—Blue Mist

1/1--Indiscretion

 

6.40: The last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones though unfortunately on this occasion, no horses are eliminated via a defection in the ranks.  Onwards and upward by informing that three-year-olds have won three of the last six contests whereby unbeaten course winners ACCIDENTAL AGENT, SECOND THOUGHT and KHAFOO SHEMENI are entrusted with my Placepot selections to hopefully secure the dividend.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following eleven renewals, though three of the last eight market leaders did at least secur toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Khafoo Shememi

1/1—Keystroke

1/1—Accidental Agent

1/1—Second Thought

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (1)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Fahey

3—William Haggas

3—Rod Millman

3—Jamie Osborne

2—George Baker (2)

2—Michael Bell

2—Roger Charlton

2—Simon Dow

2—John Gosden

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Richard Hughes

2—William Muir (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—David O’Meara

2—Hugo Palmer

2—Daniel Steele

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

2—Archie Watson

2—Ian Williams

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £189.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £13.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 10th November

HEXHAM - NOVEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £26.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Hexham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Ouro Branco), 7 (Tetraites Style) & 2 (Calix Delafayette)

Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Handy Hollow) & 6 (Prince Dundee)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Niceandeasy) & 4 (Baraculu)

Leg 4 (2.10): 5 (Bitview Colin), 2 (Weston Jo) & 6 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Who’s Cross), 2 (Princess Mononoke) & 11 (Mrs Grass)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (On A Promise) & 7 (Willow Grange)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: OURO BRANCO represents Nigel Hawke (three runners on the card, the others contesting the 3.10 & 3.40 events) who boasts a 100% record (3/3) at Hexham during the last five years.  Eleven points of level stake profit has been realised during the period. One of the most exposed horses in the field, OURO BRANCO at least has plenty of moisture in the ground which is seemingly ideal, whilst Nigel could hardly have found the four-year-old an easier assignment.  TETRAITES STYLE has been the subject of some support on the exchanges overnight, whilst James Ewart’s Ayr winner CALIX DELAFAYETTE completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include a 5/4 winner.

 

1.10: I would not contemplate having a bet in the race from a win perspective but that said, the chance for HANDY HOLLOW to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see.  Lucinda Russel has saddled five of her last seventeen runners to winning effect and there is every chance that her Stowaway gelding PRINCE DUNDEE will figure prominently.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the first race on the card, whereby the same favourite stats are in place.

 

1.45: All four races have been secured by five/six/seven-year-olds, with the 'younger set' having claimed five of the last six renewals, coming into this year’s event on a five-timer.  Last year’s gold medallist was the only (heavy ground) course winner in the line up and five-year-old BARACULU is one of two such entries this time around.  The other is NICEANDEASY who looks to have been well placed, albeit the Keith Dalgleish raider has to break the vintage trend barrier as the Kalinisi gelding is a four-year-old.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/1--Niceandeasy (heavy)

1/2—Baraculu (heavy)

 

2.10: Soft ground course winner BITVIEW COLIN is the first of four runners on the programme to be saddled by John Patrick Ryan who boasts 2/3 stats here at Hexham during the last five years.  To add icing on the cake, John boasts level stake profits of 25 points for good measure. The same going should be in place and though ‘Colin’ has yet to winner after four steeplechase assignments, the trainer has found an ideal opportunity in this grade/company.  WESTON JOE and JUMP FOR DOUGH should offer challenges at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race on the Hexham card.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Weston Jo (heavy)

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1/1—Bitview Colin (soft)

 

2.40: MRS GRASS ran down the field in this event last year but on a similar mark here thanks to a jockey claim and in reasonable form , MRS GRASS cannot be written off entirely as she has gained all three of her wins to date at this venue.  WHO’S CROSS is another John Patrick Ryan runner on the card with each way claims, whilst PRINCESS MONONOKE has her preferred ground conditions.

Favourite factor: Both (13/8 & 7/4) favourites had finished in the frame without winning their respective events before last year’s 7/2 market leader was one of four horses which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Princess Mononoke (soft)

1/4—Uno Valoroso (heavy)

3/21—Mrs Grass (2 x soft & good to soft)

 

3.10: ON A PROMISE should prove difficult to kick out of the frame, whilst Irish raider WILLOW GRANGE appears to make up a decent duo against the remaining thirteen contenders in a race which is high on numbers but short on class.

Favourite factor: The four favourites have gained two gold medals alongside one of each colour, with all the market leaders having secured Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Turtle Cask (heavy)

1/5—Captain Sharp (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Hexham card on Friday followed by their five year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (39/226 (+45)

4—John Patrick Ryan (2/3 +25)

4—Sue Smith (0/14)

4—Victor Thomson (4/65 – loss of 36 points)

3—Nick Alexander (6/72 – loss of 40 points)

3—Julia Brook (2/14 – Slight loss)

3—James Ewart (11/53 +5)

3—Micky Hammond (12/112 – loss of 67 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (3/3 +11)

3—Nicky Richards (12/42 +17)

2—Maurice Barnes (18/116 – loss of 9 points)

2—George Bewley (9/64 +9)

2—Gillian Boanas (0/8)

2—Susan Corbett (6/92 – loss of 63 points)

2—Sam England (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Jonthan Haynes (10/85 – loss of 3 points)

2—Donald McCain (15/107 – loss of 60 points)

2—Lucy Normile (1/28 – loss of 11 points)

2—Paul Stafford (5/29 +8)

2—Simon West (0/3)

2—William Young Junior (3/21 – loss of 5 points)

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £338.00 – 7 favourites 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Warwick: £1,091.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: £307.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced