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I don’t wanna dance + New BDH recruit…

I don't wanna dance + New BDH recruit...

I don't feel like dancing...

Life is difficult at times. We all know that, we all accept that. Finding winners on the gee-gees is also pretty difficult. We all know that, we all accept that as well. So when a horse with latent ability starts making life difficult for himself and in turn making life frustrating for his supporters...it is safe to say we have every right to question our support of said beast.

Yes Dance And Dance I am talking about YOU!!

I've watched his run in Sunday's Cambridgeshire a few times now and every time I'm left with the notion that there is so much left in his tank at the finish, sooooo much! I know I'm not the only one that has been seduced by his performances, he has started to become the master of seduction in recent runs. However, there has to be a time when we say enough is enough, I'm not falling for your ways any more, I'm fed up throwing a portion of my hard-earned cash on you for little to no return, only getting a faint buzz at the end of your races when you start teasing us all with what might have been and would could be in the future.

Sometimes you have to take a stance against these beasts and I'm taking one now. Dance And Dance you are OFF the BDH list. I don't need time wasters and attention seekers in our squad. We have worked damn hard over the summer and I'm not in the mood to let you spoil the party!

I'm sure Dance And Dance will win again at some stage, if it happens to be next time out I'll live with it (maybe!), but as far as being a member of our cherished BDH attack force I'm afraid to say (perhaps happy to say!) that your time is up, bye bye.

Not wanting to be overly light with our attack line I myself got involved in transfer deadline day yesterday and after shifting Dance And Dance out of the squad (someone else can deal with the wayward star!) I managed to secure the services of a youngster who I hope can land us something before the season is out...

BDH Review…

Race in focus: 2.05 Sandown (31-08-2013): BETFRED GOALS GALORE HANDICAP – 5f, Class 3 Handicap (14 ran)

How the race played out…

Sandown 31-08

With the 1st & 2nd coming from stalls 2 & 3 it is safe to say that it was an advantage to be drawn low; I'm pretty much coming round to the notion that this is where it pays to be in these tricky Sandown sprints. ASK THE GURU absolutely blitzed out of the gates in stall 1 and that gave a perfect target for BURNING THREAD & TIDAL'S BABY to aim at. The potential front runners from up high, SWENDAB & FRATELLINO, couldn't get their preferred spot and this again helped it become a low drawn affair. The majority from up high had to switch behind early and this caused plenty of bunching on the far side and middle of the track. ASK THE GURU set a strong pace out front but couldn't hold it in the final furlong and that gave a perfect slipstream for the eventual first 2 home to sweep past and strike.

There were a few hard-luck stories in-behind with the next 3 home SIR MAXIMILLIAN, DUNGANNON & MISSION APPROVED all meeting some sort of trouble at some stage of the contest.

The end result…

The winner BURNING THREAD was in the prime spot behind the pace setting Ask The Guru and he duly obliged. With retrospect he was well in on old form, had his ground and had previously won over course & distance. Depending on what the handicapper does he may still be able to squeeze out another win before reaching his ceiling again. 2nd home TIDAL'S BABY essentially just couldn't match the winner and it may just be that he has enough weight for now. This was, however, his 2nd best RPR figure so that's not conclusive by any means. 3rd home SIR MAXIMILLIAN ran a sound race given that he met trouble in-running and had an average draw. For all this was a solid run he is showing signs that he is held off his current mark. We know all about DUNGANNON in 4th and he was probably slightly more hampered than Sir Maximillian, having to switch numerous time to try and get a run. There was plenty to like about this run and he is still running at a consistent enough level, his time will come. 5th home MISSION APPROVED had the worst draw of all as he was parked widest of the field in the outside box. Moore tracked him across as soon as he could but he had to wait for gaps (on more than 1 occasion) and when they did appear the race was all but over.

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BDH to follow…

MISSION APPROVED (5th) (Sir M Stoute)

Having his first run since being gelded and also dropping back to 5f for the first time in his 7 race career, this Dansili 3yo did extremely well to finish only 4 and a bit lengths behind the winner. Ryan Moore had to switch early and bide his time but the gaps just didn't come in time for him.

He looks a powerful sprinting type as he traveled with plenty of gusto out the back and looks well suited to this drop down in trip. He impressed me with the way he quite easily consented to ghost through the gaps when they did appear and he closed in on the pack with minimal effort when asked by his pilot.

His rating of 80 looks extremely workable, especially when we consider that was gained over 7 & 8f trips. It should also be noted that he recorded his best Proform speed figure to date in this race, by quite some way in fact; another sign that this drop in trip brought about improvement from a potentially very lenient mark.

We don't have a great deal to go on with regards to preferences as this was only his 7th career start (5th on turf) but his only turf victory to date (has won on the A/W) was gained off Soft ground at Warwick last October and it could be we see more improvement once the ground eases in the final couple of months of the season.

Conditions – As mentioned already we don't have a great deal to work with although he looks for all the world like a sprinter to me and I am looking for him to be back over the 5f trip, possibly even 6f. Ground he seems adaptable with although ground with cut in it may just be more of a help.

MISSION APPROVED now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. I have a free guide available to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you can't get the guide. You can join and pick up numerous free guides at the following page >>> Join the BDH/NTF community

Today I'll leave you with the immortal words of Mr Eddy Grant...

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9de6jeOevi8&w=420&h=315]

New BDH squad member: “He always runs while others walk”…

Nice flippers Mr Bond!

New BDH squad member: "He always runs while others walk"...

A couple of things to cover today here on BDH with a quick look back at the weather decimated Ebor Handicap from Saturday and a new addition to our BDH forward line, in the shape of a runner who will be looking for the rain to continue... Ebor Handicap Debrief... Safe to say the Ebor was a royal pain in the ass for me! I went into the morning with 3 fairly solid strings to my bow (including what I thought was a rather tasty 25-1 Ante-Post shot) and by lunchtime (4 hours from the race) I was left with a rather feeble 1 strong attack line!!

It's very rare that I play ante-post (it doesn't really fit with my punting style) so you can imagine how happy/smug I was feeling with my 25-1 ticket on Tropical Beat, who in some places was trading as low as single figures, thanks to a certain Mr Pricewise. You can then imagine my overwhelming sense of utter deflation when I heard he was a non-runner!!! Safe to say I turned the air a nasty colour of blue for a few minutes in the BDH office! If I'm honest I think a number of the Non-Runners were a bit hasty. The track wasn't actually riding that slow/soft, visually or on the clock. In fact I had a look at the results in my Proform database on Sunday and it told me the track was riding more like Good to Soft than Soft. I'm assuming connections walked the track before pulling their runners from the race and I can only assume it then felt softer than it actually was. Anyhoo it's a moot point now and the result was that I was left with a threadbare attack from my initial selections. Best thing to do then is revert to my shortlist...

Here is how the shortlist from the FREE analysis guide fared...

TIGER CLIFF 18/19 - 1st @ BFSP 7.06

NO HERETIC 18/19 - NON-RUNNER

OPINION 16/19 - 10th @ BFSP 6.57

GUARANTEE 16/19 - 7th @ BFSP 18

SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 15/19 - 9th @ BFSP 25.97

CARAVAN ROLLS ON 15/19 - 11th @ BFSP 8

SUN CENTRAL 15/19 - NON_RUNNER

With the withdrawal of No Heretic Lady Cecil's Tiger Cliff was left clear on his own at the top of the shortlist and he went on to justify his top ranking on the BDH figures with a well timed victory under Tom Queally.

It's a minor reward for what was a bit of a bugger of a race and hopefully some of you reverted to the figures once the runners started dropping  like flies.

There has been word in the past that the winner may eventually end up going hurdling and although I am a dyed in the wool National Hunt man I don't think I would be too keen on that option, he surely has enough to offer on the flat without going pot-hunting over timber?

BDH Review…

I'm stepping back 2 Saturday's to seek out our new squad member...

Race in focus: 3.30 Ripon (17-08-2013): William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (20 ran)

How the race played out…

Great St Wilf review

Pace wise this was all about the low numbers. As mentioned in my race analysis for the Great St Wilf the pace looked to be coming from middle to low and large field sprints over the Ripon 6f weigh heavily in favour of those drawn in the low stalls. The field split into 2 groups (as is the norm in this contest) with 8 staying high and the rest sticking to the far rail. Confirmed front-runner and track specialist  SPINATRIX was the one to pull the field along from her 1 stall, closely followed by RODRIGO DE TORRES from his 7 stall. SPINATRIX held the front spot for most of the contest and it was her strong front-running tactics that were one of the main contributing factors to the low to middle dominance of this race.  There were also a large group of the low-middle runners that were sitting close to the pace and this again made sure that the high numbers had their work cut out to get involved. From up high it was DR RED EYE that tried to lead his side along but despite his valiant effort he was always up against it.

The end result clearly showed that it was an advantage to be drawn low with the first 4 home being drawn in stall 9 or below, anything finishing in the ball park from up high deserves our utmost attention.

The end result…

We know all about the winner BACCARAT. He was on our BDH list, he was in the prime spot throughout the race and was able to pick up the pace-setting Spinatrix in the final 50 or so yards. The Fahey youngster probably has more to come and it will be very interesting to see where they go from here. 2nd placed SPINATRIX ran a career best on the figures and although she may still just be improving her new mark of 105 could start to make life pretty tricky. If she doesn't prove up to that mark then it will be interesting if her mark drops back down enough to be competitive in the 2014 renewal of this race (*makes a mental note for August 2014!). 3rd placed RODRIGO DE TORRES ran a highly credible race and he is on a mark he can score from if conditions are correct. 4th home REGAL PARADE easily did best of those that tried to come from out the back and although he was under the pump fairly early on he did keep responding and was doing his best work late on. He is a 9yo now but his mark is creeping down all the time and he has been producing some consistent figures, it would be no surprise to see him pop into the winners enclosure before the season is out. 5th home SUMMERINTHECITY was the first home from the high numbers and that may be simply due to the fact his jockey shifted him closer to the middle of the track at the 3f pole. He looks on a tricky handicap mark at the minute and my personal feeling is that he needs to drop at least a few lbs before winning again. Next home from the top group, and filling 6th spot overall, was the Scott Dixon trained THUNDERBALL. This would have been ground he wouldn't have appreciated and from his extremely tricky draw in stall 17 he put in a very eye-catching performance.

BDH to follow…

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THUNDERBALL (6th) (S Dixon)

As already mentioned in detail those drawn high were at a significant disadvantage. THUNDERBALL in box 17 had no choice really but to stay high and essentially his cards were marked as soon as Spinatrix in stall 1 blasted off in the lead. He is also very much a horse that relies on Soft underfoot conditions to produce his best and as such the Good ground he met was also unlikely to suit him. With those 2 major factors against him his 6 length 6th is a very eye-catching performance indeed.

Staying with his ground preferences here is the breakdown of his form figures on different conditions...

Heavy - 0 wins from 2 starts

Soft - 4 wins from 9 starts

Good to Soft or better - 1 win from 40 starts

A/W - 5 wins from 29

Interestingly all 4 of his turf victories have been over 6 furlongs and all 5 of his A/W victories have been over 7f or 8f; a clear indicator that on the turf his ideal trip is 6f.

As it is the turf we are really concerned with here lets take a bit of a closer look...

First up his Soft ground form line reads an impressive 323611011; clearly he loves running when the ground is officially described as Soft.

On the distance side of things here are the breakdowns over the different trips...

6f - 5 wins from 19 starts

6 1/2f or further - 0 wins from 32 starts

6 furlongs the ideal trip? I'd say that's an affirmative!

If we squeeze things up just a touch more and look ONLY at his 6f form on Soft ground we get a rather impressive form line of 1111. Those 4 wins were gained from handicap marks of 91-86-90-85. He currently sits on OR 90 and the figures and visual evidence tells us that is a mark he is more than capable of running well from, indeed he is more than capable of winning from.

Conditions – Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft! Simple! He is currently on a mark that he has proven he can win from in the past so from a handicapping perspective this mark or below is where we want him.

He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race. 4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn't a necessity it probably is preferable.

In summary we want 6 furlongs on soft from a mark of 90 or below. The probable area for him to strike will be in a less than 20k to the winner race on a straight track although I would be flexible on that score.

THUNDERBALL now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. Thanks to those of you that joined my SkyBet Super 6 mini league. We can at least try and beat each other as we try and nail that £250,000 first prize!

p.p.s I will have a free guide available soon to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you won't get the guide. 

BDH Sandown Review: Gannon’s not Dun yet….

BDH Sandown Review: Gannon’s not Dun yet….

An interesting couple of days for us over the weekend and before I crack into the review of the 5f sprint at Sandown from Friday I just want to tidy up a few loose ends.

Starting with...

DOCTOR PARKES

As far as his role as a BDH runner is concerned it's job done and thank you very much. On Friday he was very much a 'well drawn horse' and he rewarded us all at some very tasty prices. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does but for the purposes of this here blog he happily moves off the BDH list. Good job Doc.

DUKE OF FIRENZE

I think what Duke of Firenze (I'm going to call him DOF from now on!) confirmed to me on Saturday was that he needs the big fields to produce his best. Small fields tend to congregate and cluster up into 1 group, causing plenty of traffic jams for hold-up runners, such as DOF. In large field races the runners tend to fan out at the end of the race and gaps appear between runners as the petrol gauge starts to flicker on empty, gaps that Duke of Firenze obviously loves coming through in the closing stages. When the runners are spread across the track they naturally open up and fan out as the energy levels drop in the closing stages, this is where I feel Duke Of Firenze can be seen at his best.

He certainly met plenty trouble in-running on Saturday and he was hindered at least twice when looking to make forward moves. As mentioned this is more likely to happen in small fields when they cluster up so as frustrating as it is, it also isn't surprising.

For now he remains on the BDH list.

Now onto the meat of today's post...

Race in focus: 2.20 Sandown (05-07-2013) – LONDON'S RACE TRACKS RACINGANDMUSIC.CO.UK HANDICAP (Class 3 Handicap) 5f (14ran)

How the race played out…

Doctor Parkes Sandown Race 05-07

As is generally the case with sprints at Sandown it is the runners drawn low and up with the pace that come out on top and it was no different in this contest. There was some fine analysis pre-race on Racing UK by Eddie 'the shoe' Fremantle about the effect of the draw at Sandown over the 5f trip, where he pointed out the advantage of being drawn in the low stalls. He himself had walked the track before the race and stated that there was a distinct advantage, in his opinion, to those drawn low. That was purely from him having walked the track and tested the underfoot conditions himself. As it turns out he was spot on and it was also something I had indicated in my Blog post on Friday. It is very much something to keep in mind when punting in these types of races at Sandown although obviously the bias is somewhat negated in the smaller fields (7 or less runners).

The pace map tells us that the pace was set by FAIR VALUE in the 6 box and he tracked across to the far rail early on. DOCTOR PARKES got a good break from the 2 box and that allowed jockey Neil Callan to position him just where he wanted him, something that proved pivotal in his victory. JOE PACKET didn't break quite as well and he was maybe just a quarter step behind where he wanted to be for most of the race, nevertheless he was still in a decent posi compared to some. Possibly the most interesting aspect of the pace was the fact that the top 5 stalls (boxes 10-15) all made the early decision to switch in behind the pack and run held-up. That isn't too unexpected as they all generally run that way anyway but in truth it was also their only real option from their unfavorable draws. Unfortunately it was also a moved that severely compromised their chances. Of the 5 of them the smartest riding came from Thomas Brown on STEPS who kept his mount on the outer of the main group, leaving him room to try and bullet home late with an unblocked passage (ooh er missus!). He did, however, have the 'best' of the wide draws and was in a prime slot to make that decision.

The end result…

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The winner DOCTOR PARKES was well drawn, in the prime position throughout and took full advantage. This was a good performance and he won fairly readily in the end. He will possibly now be pushing on to a mark that he will start to struggle with, as always it will be interesting to see the handicappers reaction. Second placed JOE PACKET possibly didn't get the best start and had to fight his way back into it a bit but it was a solid run and there is every suggestion that he can win from this mark. He may just be better suited to being stepped back up to 6f. Third placed STEPS ran a very sound race from out wide, he was one that didn't have a great draw but the fact he stayed wide probably benefited him as he had a clear passage to the line. He is running from a career high mark at the minute but still remains competitive, it is a close call whether the handicapper has him in his grip or not; personally I would like to see him dropped just a couple of lbs. FAIR VALUE gave it fair effort from the front but just couldn't keep the closer's at bay and faded slightly in the final yards into fourth. His recent runs suggest he could well pick a race up from this mark though and an easy 5f is probably his best option. Fifth place TAAJUB didn't really take advantage of his good draw and found trouble by being held up. He is another that suggests he could win from his current mark. As previously mentioned it's hard to win from out the back and out wide over Sandown's flying 5 furlongs so for that reason I would be willing to crank up DUNGANNON's 6th placed run a notch or 2. It was an extremely difficult draw to win from and he did well to get so close and he did motor home once the gaps appeared; to only finish 2.5 lengths in arrears was a fine effort.

BDH(s) to follow…

DUNGANNON (6th) (A Balding)

This 6yo gelding put in some decent late work once the gaps appeared and whilst his finishing position probably doesn't fully justify his effort it should be enough to keep him under the radar of most punters.

Possibly the most interesting angle with this horse is his current handicap mark of 88. That is a full 7lbs lower than his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than his 2nd highest winning mark. If we also consider the fact that he has run well from marks as high as 99 & 97 then it isn't hard to make the assumption that he is currently sitting on a pretty handy mark.

It's also interesting to note that all his wins have come when returning within 28 days or less of his last run (on Friday it was 32 days since his last run)...

Form when returning within 28 days of last run - 010061013571

Form when returning after a break of 29 days+ - 569252678055

He doesn't necessarily run 'poorly' after longer breaks but the fact all his wins have come off shorter breaks suggests that ideally we want him on the track within a month.

He looks fairly adaptable when it comes to ground and to a certain extent distance (winning form over 5f, 6f & 7f) so his options should be open enough with regards to future targets. His handicap mark is clearly the most interesting aspect about him and I would be surprised if he can't take advantage of it very soon, especially off the back of his run at Sandown last Friday.

Conditions – Ideally we are wanting him back on the track within the month, the 28 day window looks his optimum and there should be plenty of targets for him to be aimed at. He has winning form over 7f but personally I think 5f or 6f would be the ideal trips for him, again there should be plenty of openings for him within the next few weeks.

DUNGANNON now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

You can read much more from myself over at my own site www.badlydrawnhorse.com

Ben (BDH)

The ‘Penalty Kick?’ Betting System

Penalty Kick System

Penalty Kick System

In today's guest post, Dave Renham of punterprofits.com looks at the effect on performance of horses saddled with a penalty. In it, he looks at various angles before offering a couple of mini-systems which exemplify how to optimally play horses carrying a penalty.

Here's Dave:

Penalty Carriers

This week I am going to look at penalty carriers on the flat racing in the UK. The data has been taken from 2009 to June 17th 2012. All profits and losses quoted in the article are to SP. Backing profits can therefore be improved in real life through use of best odds price taking or using betting exchanges such as Betfair.

So why look at penalty carriers? Well, although they are forced to the carry extra weight of the penalty, trainers often try to take advantage of the horse being in form before being reassessed by the handicapper. Let us see therefore the performance of all penalty carriers over the period of study:

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

2570

588

22.9

-£112.09

-4.4

This is a fairly solid set of figures with losses equating to only 4.4 pence in the £, and a good number of selections to boot. Let us breakdown this data starting by looking at the position in the market:

Market position

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

Favourite

1072

376

35.1

-£42.68

-4.0

2nd Favourite

503

104

20.7

-£19.90

-4.0

3rd Favourite

303

51

16.8

+£17.49

+5.8

4th Favourite

221

24

10.9

-£21.50

-9.7

5+ in betting

471

33

7.0

-£45.50

-9.7

A position in the top three in the betting has been preferable both in terms of strike rate and in terms of returns. Although third favourites have made a small profit I would not advocate backing them blind as I would not expect that profit to be replicated over a similar future time frame.

I looked at the age of runners next:

Age

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

2

133

31

23.3

-£16.38

-12.3

3

743

223

30.0

+£53.70

+7.2

4

603

127

21.1

-£28.26

-4.7

5

436

88

20.2

-£39.92

-9.2

6

285

59

20.7

-£13.07

-4.6

7

199

34

17.1

-£16.41

-8.3

8

96

16

16.7

-£14.63

-15.2

9+

75

10

13.3

-£37.13

-49.5

The record of 3yos looks impressive on the surface.  Conversely, results for horses aged 9 and older are poor and they look worth avoiding. The 3yo performance I felt merited further investigation and a pleasing stat to note is that they have made a profit in every year – 2009, 2010, 2011 and the first half of 2012.

That suggests consistency which is a plus when looking at potential punting angles. Another positive angle worth noting is the performance of 3yo penalty carriers in open handicaps (3yo+ races). They have produced 80 winners from 276 runners (SR 29%) for a profit of £64.88 (ROI +23.5%). The reason why the returns in these contests have been far better than the overall figure is probably down to punter prejudice.

Most punters would expect a 3yo penalty carrier to be less successful when racing older horses as compared to when racing against his/her own age group. Hence in open (3yo+) I suspect these penalty carriers tend to start at slightly bigger prices than they should due to this pre-conception.

Onto class of race next: 

Class

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

1

5

0

0.0

-£5.00

-100.0

2

231

20

8.7

-£49.75

-21.5

3

113

25

22.1

+£40.57

+35.9

4

509

116

22.8

+£7.09

+1.4

5

838

202

24.1

-£109.19

-13.0

6

825

208

25.2

-£4.34

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-0.5

7

49

17

34.7

+£8.53

+17.4

There does seem to be a pattern here with the higher class races (2 and above) performing below expectations, while the lowest class races (6 and 7) performing over expectations and actually making a nominal profit.

Next I wanted to look at claiming jockeys. Trainers sometimes try and ‘offset’ the penalty by putting a claiming jockey on board. Is this a good ploy? Well let’s look at the stats: 

Jockey claim

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

No claim

1722

416

24.2

-£36.48

-2.1

Claim 3lb+

848

172

20.3

-£75.60

-8.9

The figures suggest there is no advantage to be had by placing a claiming jockey on board. In fact, they have performed worse in terms of both strike rate and returns. Indeed, it is worth noting that 7lb claimers have managed a strike rate of only 17% with losses of 27% (27 pence in the £).

Finally let me look at trainers to see whether there are any trainers who are adept at placing horses carrying penalties. Here is a list of those trainers that have secured 7 or more winners.

Trainers

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI %

Roger Charlton

13

7

53.9

+£0.91

+7.0

Sir Mark Prescott

58

31

53.5

+£4.10

+7.1

Kevin Ryan

38

19

50.0

+£24.51

+64.5

Ian Williams

17

8

47.1

+£9.56

+56.3

Alan Swinbank

16

7

43.8

+£4.07

+25.4

Michael Wigham

16

7

43.8

+£11.67

+73.0

George Baker

21

9

42.9

+£3.24

+15.4

Stuart Williams

24

10

41.7

+£11.90

+49.6

Richard Hannon

24

8

33.3

+£17.00

+70.8

Tim Easterby

24

8

33.3

+£4.21

+17.5

Bryan Smart

29

9

31.0

-£3.35

-11.6

Michael Easterby

23

7

30.4

-£1.38

-6.0

Paul Midgley

31

9

29.0

+£8.97

+29.0

Milton Bradley

29

7

24.1

+£12.88

+44.4

Mark Johnston

114

25

21.9

+£4.25

+3.7

Richard Fahey

42

8

19.1

-£11.68

-27.8

Ruth Carr

43

8

18.6

-£3.00

-7.0

David Evans

61

7

11.5

-£24.25

-39.8

Sir Mark Prescott is renowned for running horses quickly after a win, but despite an excellent strike rate, profits are small. Perhaps the trainer to take out of this is Kevin Ryan – a 50% strike rate is excellent as are returns of 64p in the £.

To conclude you could do a lot worse than backing a good proportion of penalty carriers. I would pay most attention to 3yos (especially in 3yo+ handicaps), and also I would look closely at class 6-7 handicaps. Any penalty carrier trained by one of the trainers with a positive return, most notably Kevin Ryan, are also worth close scrutiny. In terms of negatives, I would avoid horses aged 9 and older, class 2 or higher handicaps and any horse ridden by a 7lb claimer.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham is a research writer for the Racing & Football Outlook newspaper.

Register for free at his  www.PunterProfits.com website to access additional horse racing  research articles from Dave. There is also a premium area where users can get hold of Dave's National Hunt portfolio, and plenty more besides.

Full details on Punter Profits are here.

 

 

 

Racing Winners – Final Review

Overview

The "Racing Winners” system is a horse betting system that encompasses Turf meetings only (Flat and National Hunt racing). To understand the system requires some previous experience, patience and time and on that basis this system is probably unsuitable for beginners.

Selections can be found using the Racing Post Online (recommended by the author), there are currently no costs associated  with viewing the requisite information on this site. The selection method is, in my view, at times ambiguous so it is possible that people could identify different selections on any given day which clearly should not be the case. Consistent reproducibility is a key requirement for any system.

To quote the website directly "Discover how you can double your betting bank within the first three months through backing the correct horses in certain types of races using a brand new system for 2010 called Racing Winners"

System Claims

"With these methods you will have all the necessary requirements, to have long term success with your betting & not to blindly follow the crowd. With the backing odds of these methods, we only need an approximate strike rate of 20%, which means we only need to win only one in every five selected races. Current strike rate using these methods is 23% at average backing odds of 6.8. Since we began applying all of the methods back in August 2008, we have experienced 21 months of profit; 2 months of small losses, the biggest winning month of profit to date is £2112.35; the highest losing month to date is -£279.73.

You do need to be able to follow rules, spend approximately 30 minutes per betting day on form study & to be able hold your discipline due to the strike rate of about 20%, but because of the odds these methods find, it will enable us to continue to make a steady profit."

The System

The system arrives as a 47 page document and costs £19.00. Given the overpriced non-performing fare we are regularly exposed to, this makes quite a refreshing change. The system comes with both email assistance and a 60 day money back guarantee via ClickBank.

The "Racing Winners" system is a ratings based system which concentrates on the top 6 horses in the betting for particular handicap races. As the author suggests placing no more than 2 bets per day there will often be more qualifying races than bets. There is no reason at all why you couldn't have a bet on all qualifying races if you so wished

System Results – 21st August to 30th September 2010

Potential Qualifiers = 71

Non-qualifiers = 5 (4 non-runners and a winner at below minimum odds)

Actual Qualifiers = 66

Winners = 14

Second = 13

Third = 12

Your first 30 days for just £1

Unplaced = 27

Strike Rate = 21.21%

Total Stakes = £772.65

Total Return = £1074.77

Profit to SP = - £302.12

Summary

The author suggested that a 20% strike rate would be sufficient and we have achieved just above that rate. Additionally, we are well on our way to double our bank within 3 months having increased our starting bank by a little over 60%.

I do have a few minor issues with the system:

1). It can be a bit time consuming particularly on days when there is plenty of racing action. I would suggest undertaking the analysis the night before.

2). As a consequence of non-runners, races which previously did not qualify suddenly qualify and this can lead to additional work.

3). Going is one of the key factors in calculating races, changes in going can, at times, undo some/all of your previous calculations.

Given the factors above, it may not be totally suitable for someone who has a job to maintain during the day though in those circumstances you will still have use of the system during weekends. Nonetheless, and these minor issues notwithstanding, this is a system I would happily recommend. For those of you who haven't yet purchased the system, I would suggest you beat a path to the author's door.  The system is still available at the special launch price of £19.00 and comes with a 60 day money back guarantee. On the evidence of this review, you surely have nothing to lose.

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting

John

Racing Winners – Day 41 Selections / Results – Final Day

Day 41 Selections / Results –30th September 2010

The final day of the review and it is nice to finish on a high:

Ayr 17.15 - Graceful Descent (Won 4/1) - stake (2% of bank) = £14.85; Return = £74.25

Profit on the day = £59.40

Accumulated (Profit) = £302.11 (Accumulated bank = £802.11)

Showing a return of slightly over 60% in 41 days is excellent by any standard so for those of you who haven't yet purchased the system, I would suggest you beat a path to the author's door.  The system is still available at the special launch price of £19, yes £19 and comes with a 60 day money back guarantee. On the evidence of this review, you surely have nothing to lose.

My final analysis of the system will be posted shortly.

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 40 Selections / Results

Day 40 Selections / Results – 29th September 2010

A losing day today:

Newcastle 17.00 - Glenmuir (2nd 9/1) - stake (2% of bank) = £15.47

Newcastle 17:30 - Rowan Lodge (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £15.16

Loss on the day = £30.63

Accumulated (Profit) = £242.71 (Accumulated bank = £742.71)

Tomorrow is the final day of the current review.

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 39 Selections / Results

Day 39 Selections / Results – 28th September 2010

A losing day today:

Brighton 15.20 - Spirit Is Needed (3rd 11/1) - stake (2% of bank) = £16.10

Sedgefield 16:45 - Ballabrook (3rd 7/2) - stake (2% of bank) = £15.78

Loss on the day = £31.88

Accumulated (Profit) = £273.34 (Accumulated bank = £773.34)

Only two more days remaining for the current review.

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 38 Selections / Results

Day 38 Selections / Results – 27th September 2010

After two excellent days we come back down to earth with a slight bump:

Ffos Las 15.50 - Saint Thomas (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £16.77

Ffos Las 16:20 - Dazinski (3rd 18/1) - stake (2% of bank) = £16.43

Loss on the day = £33.20

Accumulated (Profit) = £305.22 (Accumulated bank = £805.22)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 37 Selections / Results

Day 37 Selections / Results – 26th September 2010

Another excellent day today with both selections winning. Our Starting Bank has now increased by nearly 68%:

Ascot 15.00 - Life And Soul (Won 4/1) - stake (2% of bank) = £14.65; Return = £73.25; Bank = £790.97

Musselburgh 16:00 - Hamloola (Won 3/1F) - stake (2% of bank) = £15.82; Return = £63.28

Profit on the day = £106.06

Accumulated (Profit) = £338.42 (Accumulated bank = £838.42)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 36 Selections / Results

Day 36 Selections / Results – 25th September 2010

An excellent day today with both selections winning:

Market Rasen 13.45 - Extreme Conviction (Won 13/2) - stake (2% of bank) = £12.23; Return = £91.72; Bank = £690.91

Market Rasen 15:55 - Thai Vango (Won 3/1) - stake (2% of bank) = £13.82; Return = £55.28

Profit on the day = £120.95

Accumulated (Profit) = £232.36 (Accumulated bank = £732.36)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 35 Selections / Results

Day 35 Selections / Results – 24th September 2010

Another losing day today:

Worcester 16.05 - Magnetic Pole (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £12.73

Worcester 17:15 - Novikov (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £12.48

Loss on the day = - £25.21

Accumulated (Profit) = £111.41 (Accumulated bank = £611.41)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 34 Selections / Results

Day 34 Selections / Results – 23rd September 2010

Another losing day today:

Fontwell 15.40 - Hereweareagain (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £13.26

Pontefract 16:00 - High Office (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £12.99

Loss on the day = - £26.25

Accumulated (Profit) = £136.62 (Accumulated bank = £636.62)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 33 Selections / Results

Day 33 Selections / Results – 22nd September 2010

No luck today:

Goodwood 16.20 - Heart Of Hearts (2nd 11/2) - stake (2% of bank) = £13.80

Redcar 16:35 - Avitus (Unplaced) - stake (2% of bank) = £13.53

Loss on the day = - £27.33

Accumulated (Profit) = £162.87 (Accumulated bank = £662.87)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John

Racing Winners – Day 32 Selections / Results

Day 32 Selections / Results – 21st September 2010

A nice winner today which now moves us into a 38% increase (to SP) on our original Starting Bank:

Stratford 15.40 - Templer (2nd 11/4F) - stake (2% of bank) = £12.04

Pontefract 16:00 - Hail Bold Chief (Won 17/2) - stake (2% of bank) = £11.80; Return = £112.10

Profit on the day = £88.26

Accumulated (Profit) = £190.20 (Accumulated bank = £690.20)

Check out Racing Winners here.

Happy punting.

John