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The Ultimate Guide to Betting on Horses and Using Geegeez Gold

This Q&A article is designed to highlight and explain possible betting angles in horse racing and different ways to get the best out of Geegeez Gold. This will be added to on a regular basis, answering questions from YOU, the readers. 

For all questions there will be answers from each of Matt Bisogno, Sam Darby and Chris Worrall. Everyone has a slightly different approach when it comes to betting on horses so you should expect differing answers from all three contributors.

If you have a question you’d like to ask the Geegeez panel, about horse racing in general or specifically their use of Geegeez Gold, please post your query in the comments section and we’ll do our best to include it in the next round of answers.

How do you approach looking for bets with Geegeez Gold?

 

Matt: I’ve a number of things I’m looking for, some situational and some more general. The first and most important thing, in my view, is to choose the right races. Race selection is under-rated and yet, if fishing in shallower pools, we have a much better chance of getting a result. Because of the nature of Geegeez Gold, which is geared much more towards form profiles, I tend to look for races where the horses have already run plenty of times (and therefore we know pretty much their level of ability).

In such races, it is rare that one suddenly steps forward significantly, and so it is often a case of finding the one best suited by the conditions. Tools like Instant Expert, the pace tab and, for flat races, draw tab all feature strongly in my analysis.

More specifically, some of the things I’m keen on marking up (because I believe they’re generally under-rated) are extremes of going (heavy, firm) or field size (very small or 16+ runner fields), specialist distances (5f, 9f, 2m2f+ on flat, 3m6f+ over jumps), first/second time scenarios (trainer records with first or second time in a handicap), change of trainer, distance move, and so on.

For those of you more experimental (and experienced), taking a keen interest in sectional data can be rewarding. Identifying horses with a likely similar pace scenario today from when they recorded a strong sectional figure can be very worthwhile. Our Fast Finishers report is valuable to that end, and comes into its own during the AW season in my view.

Ultimately, I’m looking for value by using bits of information others might not be. Choosing the right races is a big leg up, and then Geegeez Gold can help hugely thereafter.

This video post on Race Selection may help.

 

Sam: In most races I already have an idea of what I’m going to be backing as I’ll be guided by my tracker entries. The races in which my tracker horses are entered are those that initially interest me.

First of all I’ll remind myself of why they are in my tracker, by either checking my notes or checking the strength of their recent runs (in nearly every case I’ll have added them as they’ve run well in a ‘hot’ race). Then I’ll go through the other runners in the race and I’ll check how my tracked runners are likely to be advantaged or disadvantaged by the run of the race based on course pace and draw biases and the pace setup of the race, so heavy use of the draw and pace tabs. 

If there are unknowns about any of the runners, particularly ground or distance, I’ll often use the sire tab on the Profiler tool to check their likely suitability. I’ll use all this info to determine whether or not those runners are a bet and if they are, the strength of that bet.

There are also courses where I always have a quick look through to see if there are any in form front runners likely to get an easy lead. I only do this for front runner favouring courses. I use the pace maps to get a quick snapshot of the pace setup and then I check the form of any lone pace angles. If they have the form to be competitive I’ll look at the entire race in more detail before deciding if that front runner is a bet or not.

 

Chris: As many of you are already aware, I’m predominantly a stats-based bettor and I use the query tool and report suites to highlight runners that might interest me. I then weed out those in races I don’t like getting involved in, sticking mainly (but not exclusively) to handicaps, where there’s plenty of data to work with.

Trainers are generally pretty fixed in their ways and once they find an approach that works for them, they’re loathe to change and that’s why I follow the stats. If trainer xyz excels in staying handicaps on testing ground and he suddenly has one out, then I’ll take a look, then I use the toolkit to assess whether conditions will suit the horse, before moving to pace and where relevant, draw.

But, I should re-iterate what I’ve said elsewhere, lists of horses from statistical reports, either created by myself or by the Geegeez report suite are only ever an initial excuse/reason to look at a race, they’re not a list of bets.

What do you think is the most underrated angle/aspect of form study?

 

Matt: Two things spring to mind. First, run style - especially front runners from higher draws - can be a gold mine. And secondly, exposed horses (i.e. those that have run many times already and have few secrets from the formbook) in exposed handicaps. 

It is often said that such horses “take it in turns to win”. That is true, but the inference - that it is impossible to know which will have its turn today - is incorrect. A combination of a competitive (relative to personal history) handicap mark, favourable draw and/or run style, and the right track and trip normally see a horse in the mix. That will often be factored into its price, of course, but still quite often it is not.

 

Sam: I still think pace biases are generally underappreciated, both by punters and bookies. In terms of course biases, using Chester as an example, bookmakers are obviously well aware of the effect of the draw and in most 5f handicaps the first three in the betting will be drawn in the lowest stalls. They are strongly reacting to the likely effect of the draw - and rightly so.

However in these same races the odds rarely reflect the likely pace bias to the same degree. You’ll see runners likely to be held up in last heading the betting over something, with not too dissimilar form levels, that will be ridden prominently.

Chester is a pretty obvious one but there are loads of courses in the UK where front runners can be heavily favoured where in my opinion front runners are being allowed to go off at too big a price. So understanding these course biases is crucial for me and it’s obviously something I find Geegeez Gold helps me a lot with.

 

Chris: At the risk of following the herd, I’d have to agree with my colleagues here. Pace, tempo, race tactics, running styles, call it what you will, but that’s the thing I’ve found has helped the most over the last year since getting more switched on to it. Some tracks suit the front runner, some don’t. Some benefit those who get waited with.

I’d also contend that track layout/tightness of bends and proximity of the first and last bends to the starting/finishing post are often overlooked, as these can massively affect horses drawn closest to the bend. Those who follow F1 will know about racing lines and how approaching a bend from off the rail and almost “cutting the corner” can be the quickest way from a to b, even if it’s a slightly longer route.

How much time do you spend studying racing, outside of your Geegeez contributions, in an average week

 

Matt: It all depends on what’s happening. Life is busy (good busy, generally!) and I, like everyone else, have to work around that. But I’m able to get a really good feel for at least a few races in relatively short order using the race selection approach and then the Gold toolkit.

When I’m framing a Win 6 syndicate, I’ll spend a good couple of hours (or more) piecing everything together; if betting in a couple of races, it might only be 15-30 minutes.

Over the course of an average week, with say five betting days, I’d be in the form book six to eight hours, I guess.

A weird side note: I don’t generally bet ‘seriously’ on a Saturday. Most pro’s do, and I’m not a pro (though I have a profit expectation from betting, which I’ve realised most years), so fair enough; but I’ve always found it hyper competitive.

 

Sam: On average I’ll dedicate around 12 hours to form study and research. Obviously this varies depending on the racing, during big meetings such as Royal Ascot I’ll probably spend something closer to 3-4 hours each day but on poorer weeks I might only need an hour or less a day to get through the meetings.

My time spent on racing is split into two general parts. The first would be looking at future races, after the final decs are out, and the second part would be research into past races, looking for future winners and horses to add to my tracker. This second part usually takes a couple of hours a week during the early months of the flat season.

The vast majority of my bets are on flat racing and I tend to only get involved in the very biggest jumps races so I’m far less active/busy in the winter months, preferring to concentrate on the all weather action. This helps me switch off a bit from racing (as much as I can!) for a few months a year and keeps me fresh in time for the next flat season.

 

Chris: I'd probably say that I actually spend only about an hour a day max, because I do much of my study/research for the next day at the same time as I'm writing Racing Insights. RI is only a two/three minute read at best for most people, but I spend a good couple of hours pulling it together after I've considered other races/angles etc, so it's not an exact science. 

I struggle to compartmentalise how much time any specific task takes as I'm often doing two or three things at the same time, but I'd probably say I've got racecards & stats etc in front of my face for three hours a day, except Saturdays, when (a) I don't bet and (b) I tend to take most of the day off.

What is your go to report on Geegeez Gold?

 

Matt: I built them so it may be little surprise that I use most of them! I check Fast Finishers daily, and will always scan Trainer Snippets, 2yo 1st run, HC1 and Trainer Change. TJ Combo I’ll look at less than I used to, as typically I’ll get that intel from the jockey form icon on the racecard.

And then, of course, I’ll be all over my Report and QT Angles, which again I view within the racecard of the race I’m looking at. 

The inference from the above is that I’m usually a ‘bottom up’ form student, looking within a race for the snippets of interest to me. That’s as different from a ‘top down’ form student, who might go looking for a bet based on, for example, the best TJ combo record on a given day. 

There’s no right or wrong way, and I’ve flitted between the two approaches over time (and still do). But, more often than not, I’ll start with the race and work from there. Did I mention race selection is crucial? 😉

 

Sam: Anyone who has read any of my previous content might be expecting me to say the Hot Form Report - and it’s an excellent report - but most of my hot form research is done before we get to the final declarations and most of the runners I want to follow, because of hot form, are already in my tracker.

The report I get the most use out of is the Trainer Change Report. I’m never quite sure what to do when one of the horses I am tracking changes stable and this is when I’ll check the Trainer Change Report. I’m not only interested in win percentages, place percentages, PRB and so on but I also like to look at the list of qualifying runners, checking their odds, the field sizes they ran in, etc. I’ll use all of this data to make a judgement call on how likely I think they are to run to previous form - or even improve on it. These runners are often off the track for a while before making the stable debut so I’ll always check the trainer record after 60+ day breaks too.

Very recently this report played a crucial role in having a strong bet on Chillsea at Wolverhampton as Tom Ward had a strong record with runners making their debuts after a stable change.

 

Chris: Probably Horses for Courses and Head to Head from the horse form reports and Trainer Stats / TJC and trainer change from the trainer form reports.

H4C speaks for itself, some horses just go better at certain tracks. There's probably something else affecting the horse on that day, but some are suited by certain conditions. Head to head on its own doesn't tell me too much, but when you delve into that race and assess the margin of defeat, how they've both ran since and the change/swing in weight, it can be very helpful, even if only to rule a bet out.

Most of you have read my stat-based pieces, so my reasons for using Trainer Stats and TJC are pretty obvious, but the Trainer Change angle might not be. A fresh trainer/approach can invigorate a failing horse, but I'm not really just looking for horses that have switched yards. I want to see horses moving yards and then tackling races their previous handler(s) wouldn't have entered them in. 

For example a struggling two-mile hurdler moves to a yard with a good record with stayers, he's in the yard for a while and then comes back from a break to run over three miles. he's doing something he's never done, but for a yard successful in that type of race. It's a bit of a leap of faith sometimes, but you have to assume they'll have prepped well.


If you have any questions for the panel please post them below in the comments section.

 

 

 

Sat TV Trends: 18th Sept 2021

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

Did you know? 15 of the last 20 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

 

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.55 – Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Yet to race at Ayr
9/10 – Won over 1m2f or more
9/10 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/10 – Won 3 or more times before
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Aged 4 or older
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/10 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
Addeybb (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020

 

2.30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

18/18 – Carried 8-11 or more
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/18 – Carried 9-0 or more
13/18 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/18 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/18 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
11/18 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/18 – Winning Favourites
0/18 – Filly or mare winners
Magical Spirit (18/1) won the race in 2020
Golden Apollo (12/1) won the race in 2019
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018

 

3.05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV

16/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
16/18 – Had never raced at Ayr before
14/18 – Previous winners over 6f
14/18 – Had won once or two times before
14/18 – Winning distance 1 length or further
13/18 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/18 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
12/18 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
11/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
4/18 – Winning favourites
Umm Kulthum (9/4 fav) won the race in 2020

 

3.40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
18/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
15/20 – Had won over 6f before
15/20 – Failed to win their last race
13/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Rated 90-101
13/20 – Carried 9-1 or more
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/20 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/20 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (4) or Haydock (3) last time out
9/20 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/20 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/20 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 8)
0/20 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 16 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

 

4.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV

9/9 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 - Won at least twice before
9/9 - Rated between 89 and 96
8/9 - Won previously over 1m
7/9 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
7/9 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/9 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
7/9 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/9 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/9 - Irish bred
5/9 - Placed favourites
5/9 - Had run at Ayr before
3/9 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/9 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/9 - Winning favourites
Johan (9/2) won the race in 2020

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.15 -
Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV

18/19 – Raced four or more times that season
17/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
16/19 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
16/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
16/19 – Won a Listed or Group race before
15/19 – Won over 5f previously
14/19 - Aged 5 or younger
13/19 – Won 4 or more times
12/19 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/19 – Previous Group race winners
6/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 8 winners)
6/19 – Won their last race
6/19 – Favourites
5/19 – Mare winners
Lazuli (5/2) won the race in 2020
Maid In India (12/1) won the race in 2019
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

 

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV

19/19 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
18/19 – Priced 9/1 or less
15/19 – Aged 5 or younger
15/19 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/19 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/19 – Favourites placed
11/19 – Raced at Newbury before
10/19 – Had won a Group race before
8/19 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/19 – Won their last race
4/19 – Favourites that won
4/19 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 6 runnings)
4/19 – Raced at York last time
2/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Elarqam (2/1) won the race in 2020
Desert Encounter (9/4) won the race in 2019 and 2017

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Won over 1m2f or further before
10/11 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
9/11 – Won 3 or 4 times
9/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/11 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/11 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/11 – Had run at Newbury before
Ilaraab (15/2) won the race in 2020

 

4.00 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV

15/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
15/19 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/19 – Raced 3 or more times
14/19 – Won over 6f previously
14/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Foaled in March or later
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/19 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/19 – Won exactly two races before
7/19 – Won by an April foal
6/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/19 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/19 – Filly winners

 

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Sat TV Trends: 22nd May 2021

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in nine races across three venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 – MansionBet Watch And Bet Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m6f ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 8-12 or more
7/7 – Drawn between 3-9 (inc)
7/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/7 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
7/7 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
6/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Won between 2-4 times before
5/7 – Rated between 95-102
5/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 94 in weight
4/7 – Aged 5 years-old
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/7 – Had run at the course before (2 won)
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Amanda Perrett
2/7 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/7 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

2.10 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Chris Wall
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


2.40 – Williamhill.com Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers John Gosden and William Haggas have won the race in the past
Trainer Roger Varian is just 3 from 48 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.50 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 6 previous runnings
5/6 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
5/6 – Winning distance ½ length or less
4/6 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/6 – Didn’t win last time out
3/6 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/6 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
1/6 – Winning favourites
Duke Of Firenze won this race in 2019
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is just 4 from 82 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 74 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 98 (4%) with his older horses at the track

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


1.55 – Casumo Horse Racing And Sports Betting Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 4 from 81 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 2 from 36 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

2.25 – Download The Casumo App Today Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Winners aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
6/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
5/6 – Unplaced favourites
5/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
5/6 – Rated between 90-98
4/6 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
2/6 – Trained by Mark Johnston
0/6 – Winning favourites
Lucky Deal won this race in 2019
Trainers William Haggas, Mark Johnston (2), Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race


3.00 – Join Casumo Today Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
15/17 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 7)
David Probert has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2


3.35 – Casumo Bet10Get10 Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – From stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/15 – Raced at York last time
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015


4.10 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

17/18 – Trained in the UK
16/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Raced within the last 2 months
11/18 – Placed third or better last time out
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
11/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Won their latest race
2/18 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 6 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Charles Hills (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 6/1
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 30th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

8.10 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 8/1 BOG 6th at 8/1 (In touch, pushed along over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £12,129 to the winner... 

Why?...

I'm going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today, starting with the racecard...

...as we bid a fond farewell to SotD with an in-form 4 yr old gelding hailing from an in-form yard with a good 2 year record on the Flat (and over middle distances) albeit from small sample sizes.

Andaleep has been first past the post in each of his last three starts (although subsequently disqualified on the first of the three), all over this 1m2f trip and he's 2 from 2 at 16-20 days rest and 2 from 2 under today's jockey William Carver.

Trainer Graeme McPherson is undoubtedly best known for his NH exploits, having sent out 796 NH runners since the start of 2016, whilst his record on the Flat over the same period stands at...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 6 from 18 (33.3%) at 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 6 from 13 (46.2%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 5 from 7 (71.4%) at 16-20 dslr
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 5 (60%) over 1m2f
  • 2 from 4 (50%) with LTO winners
  • 2 from 4 (50%) in September
  • 2 from 2 (100%) for jockey William Carver
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) here at Nottingham...

...whilst those sent off at 9/4 to 11/1 over 1n2f to 1m6f some 16-20 days after last run have finished 121111 with the 83.3% strike rate yielding profits of 26.75pts (+445.8% ROI) at Industry SP or 30pts (+500% ROI) at Betfair SP, including 3 wins from 3 at today's trip...

...steering us gently towards... a final 1pt win bet on Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 2.00am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: STAT OF THE DAY WILL BE REPLACED BY THE NEW RACING INSIGHTS FEATURE FROM THIS EVENING.

On behalf of Matt and myself, I'd like to thank you all for your support and loyalty over the years, especially when things haven't always gone our way : I really do appreciate it. The lack of pressure from the readers have ensured that I could approach each new day without a monkey on my back and I hope I can count on the same leeway/latitude for our new venture.

Chris

Stat of the Day, 29th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.50 Bath : Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by Vet ; Lame)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard, which shows two of my own angles...

...and a 6 yr old gelding who won LTO 15 days ago (over 8.5f here at Wolverhampton). That win took his career A/W record to...

...from which he is...

  • 7/43 (16.3%) in handicaps
  • 7/32 (21.9%) within 15 days of his last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 6/35 (17.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/26 (19.2%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 5/20 (25%) at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.1%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1/1 (100%) under jockey Ray Dawson (from LTO)

And now to my two saved angles, starting with "TapSprSire", which is basically a collection of sires whose offspring fare well in shorter races on the Tapeta. In today's case, the sire is Art Conoisseur and the angle is...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/51 (19.6%) at odds of 3/1 to 14/1
  • 9/67 (13.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 9/64 (14.1%) from males
  • 8/45 (17.8%) during 2018-20
  • 6/35 (17.1%) at 1-15 dslr
  • 6/32 (18.75%) over 7f
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for trainer David Loughnane
  • 5/31 (16.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/16 (18.75%) from 6 yr olds
  • 2/6 (33.3%) from jockeys claiming 5lbs
  • 1/1 (100%) for jockey Ray Dawson

And finally to my cunningly entitled "Wolv" angle, which you might have guessed revolves around this course and here we're looking at trainer stats, namely...

...including...

  • 40/264 (15.2%) in handicaps
  • 33/229 (14.4%) in 9-12 runner contests
  • 31/143 (21.7%) at 3/1 to 11/1
  • 29/189 (15.3%) during 2019-20
  • 28/203 (13.8%) from males
  • 16/123 (13%) at Class 6
  • 15/100 (15%) over this 7f C&D
  • 11/79 (13.9%) in fields of 12 runners
  • 10/60 (16.6%) during August/September
  • 5/24 (20.8%) with a jockey claiming 5lbs
  • and 4 from 21 (19.1%) with 6 yr olds

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Laafy @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders centre group, pushed along and outpaced when groups merged over 2f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong )

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 5-runner, Group 2, Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes for 2yo over 1m on Good ground worth £56,710 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard, one report and one of my own angles...

...followed by the pace/draw heat map...

...and finally the speed ratings...

All the above, bar my own Frankie Dettori angle should be self-explanatory, but briefly we've an in-form 2 yr old hailing from a yard with a good record at this venue (C5). Our pick will be ridden by Frankie Dettori who himself is in good form (14, 30) and also rides well here (C1, C5).

Please note the 14, 30, C1 & C5 are all detailed via clicking the trainer and/or jockey form icon under the horse's name.

As all the above is readily available to you all, I won't patronise you by going over them and I'll spend my time briefly touching on that Sire snippet before explaining my Frankie Dettori angle.

This is the first season for offspring of sire New Bay and with 12 wins from 49, they've made an impressive start and all I'd want to add those numbers is that if you just backed those sent off at 10/1 or shorter within 45 days of their last run, you'd have 10 wins from 25 (40% SR) and profits of 21.1pts at an ROI of 84.4%.

And now that Frankie Dettori angle. Frankie needs no introduction from me, of course and as one of (if not) the best in the business, but as such his rides tend to be overbet making it difficult to profit from him. In fact, backing him every time since the start of 2016 looks like this...

...and 2.76pts profit from 1311 bets just doesn't float my boat, so I apply these simple / logical filters...

to get me to this point (the racecard version includes his two rides today, hence the difference in the total number of runs)...

which I then take to this point before further deeper analysis...

...and those 574 rides include of relevance today...

  • 142/549 (25.9%) on the Flat
  • 139/526 (26.4%) at Class 1
  • 123/388 (31.7%) from those placed LTO
  • 92/268 (34.3%) in fields of 8 or fewer runners
  • 91/249 (36.6%) from LTO winners
  • 43/145 (29.7%) during September/October
  • 37/123 (30.1%) in Group 2 races
  • and 22/100 (22%) here on the Rowley...

...whilst LTO winners in Class 1 Flat contests of 8 or fewer runners are 43 from 107 (40.2% SR), including 10 from 23 (43.5%) at Group 2, 9 from 16 (56.25%) in September and 4 from 7 (57.1%) at Group 2 in September...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 12.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

2.05 Pontefract : Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Made all, ridden and ran on, winning by 2.5 lengths easing down)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Laafy @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £17,013 to the winner...

Why?...

Like yesterday, we'll start with the horse's suitability for today's conditions as highlighted in the Shortlist report, where green is good and grey is unproven/unknown...

And here's how the colours translate into numbers. From a Flat record of 4 wins from 11 starts (36.4% SR), this 4yr old gelding is...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 4/8 (50%) in fields of 10 runners or less
  • 3/7 (42.9%) wearing a visor
  • 3/6 (50%) when not the favourite
  • 2/5 (40%) over this 1m4f trip
  • 2/4 (50%) in August/September
  • 1/2 (50%) on Good ground
  • and also 1/2 (50%) in non-handicaps

Next we turn to the racecard itself...

...which shows a well-drawn, 4 yr old gelding in decent form and rated top on our Speed Ratings. His yard and jockey are both also in good nick as denoted by the 14 & 30 icons, whilst rider Ryan Moore has a good long term record at this venue C5 (full details of all those numbers can be seen by clicking the trainer or jockey form boxes).

What I want to focus on are the two subsequent reports relating to the trainer/jockey combo and the sire stats. So, in that same order, we can see that Messrs Stoute and Moore have been amongst the winners of late, but more long term in decent races, they have done very well with favoured horses, as in...

...from which, those 53 are...

  • 26/49 (53.1%) on the Flat
  • 21/36 (58.3%) were placed LTO
  • 13/23 (56.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) won LTO
  • 10/18 (55.6%) at 1m4f
  • 10/16 (62.5%) in fields of 6 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) on Good ground
  • 6/10 (60%) in Listed contests
  • 6/8 (75%) stepping up a class
  • 4/6 (66.6%) in races worth £17k-£20k
  • and 3/3 (100%) with runners rated (OR) 95-105

And now to those Sire Staying numbers, where I want to focus on this angle...

...which has produced...

  • 7/20 (35%) from males & 6/14 (42.9%) on the Flat
  • 6/9 (66.6%) at odds shorter than 5/1 & 4/11 (36.4%) over a 1m4f trip
  • 4/10 (40%) from 4 yr olds & 4/6 (66.6%)  from horses rated (OR) 100-110
  • 3/6 (50%) in non-handicaps & 3/3 (100%) in races worth £13-25k
  • 2/5 (40%) in fields of 3-6 runners & 2/5 (40%) in September
  • 2/4 (50%) on Good ground & 2/3 (66.6%) at Class 1
  • 1/1 (100%) in Listed contests & 1/1 (100%) at Newmarket

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Laafy @ 3/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.30 Kempton : Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 15/8 (Prominent early, chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, no impression on winner inside final furlong, kept on) : not the result we wanted, but I was definitely right about the price offering value.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £7,470 to the winner...

Why?...

As tends to be the case, the Geegeez Report Suite and interactive racecard provide us with an absolute stack of data, so let's crack on.

Today, I'm going to start with one of the easiest ways into a race : The Shortlist, which looks like this...

...and gives an indication that our horse should be suited by conditions. It's an indication backed by the following about this horse's performance to date. His overall record stands at...


...and includes of note today...

  • 16/28 (57.1%) at 6/1 or shorter
  • 12/24 (50%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 11/21 (52.4%) during July-October
  • 11/21 (52.4%) in fields of 5-8
  • 9/20 (45%) during 2018-20
  • 9/19 (47.4%) on Good/Good to Soft
  • 6/17 (35.3%) in handicaps
  • and 5/5 (100%) on Good to Soft

Our next port of call is the racecard itself...

And the Geegeez ratings...

Plenty to go at there, of course, so let's take it bit by bit. We've discussed the horse and the Geegeez Ratings are self-explanatory, so let's focus on the trainer/jockey and trainer/course details. The TJ30 record of 5 from 17 is excellent, but isn't a massive surprise if you get into the Geegeez Query Tool, where you can do the following...

...from which, the pair are...

  • 15/47 (31.9%) during June-September
  • 13/36 (36.1%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 11/33 (33.3%) with male runners
  • 9/22 (40.9%) in fields of 4-7 runners
  • 9/18 (50%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/28 (28.6%) on Good to Soft
  • 5/10 (50%) at Class 3
  • and 4/10 (40%) over a 1m2f trip

And finally for today, we'll look at Ralph Beckett's record here at Pontefract. Ralph only sends an average of 5 runners a year to this track and I can only assume it's the 400+ mile round trip that keeps him away, as the ones he sends here do very well, as once again the Geegeez Query Tool is our friend...

...including of note today...

  • 16/28 (57.1%) at 6/1 and shorter
  • 12/24 (50%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 11/21 (52.4%) during July-October
  • 11/21 (52.4%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 9/20 (45%) during 2018-20
  • 9/19 (47.4%) on Good/Good to Soft
  • 6/17 (35.3%) in handicaps
  • and 5 from 5 (100%) on Good to Soft

I've spent considerably more time on this today to try to highlight some aspects of the toolkit you might not currently be using as a type of precursor to next week's switch away to a Race of the Day feature, but hopefully you've found it both interesting to read...

...and a justifciation for... a 1pt win bet on Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG as was still available at 9.00am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Beverley : Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Keen, chased leaders, pushed along 2f out, keeping on well 1f out, no more)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polyrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, when you're looking for a couple of winners to sign off a near 9-year stint, a 7/2 fav ridden by a 7lb claimer in a 14-runner contest might not be an obvious pick, but let me attempt to explain. The price still offers some value as I thought he'd be 3/1 or shorter, whilst the racecard tells us...

...that we've an in-form horse who tops our speed ratings and is to be ridden by an in-form jockey whose record improves when riding for today's trainer, who himself is adept at getting LTO winners to win again.

Thanks for reading, I'm back again tomorrow.

Only joking, let's add a little to those bare stats above, shall we?

The horse is a 6 yr old gelding with two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last six outings, including a win LTO off today's mark under today's jockey in the same size of field he faces today that took his record to 3 from 10 (30% SR) in Class 6 handicaps.

And onto the TJ Combo.

The 6 from 27 shown above on the racecard over the last year is part of the following record (taken from the Geegeez Query Tool) since February 2019...

...that also includes a whole stack of angles that are relevant today, such as...

  • 8 from 38 (21.1%) in handicaps & 8/25 (32%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 7/32 (21.9%) with Rhys claiming 7lbs & 7/24 (29.2%) at 11-30dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) after a top 4 finish LTO & 6/21 (28.6%) in 3yo+ races
  • 6/10 (60%) at 6/1 and shorter & 5/21 (23.8%) in 2020
  • 5/21 (23.8%) in fields of 11-14 runners & 4/17 (23.5%) on the A/W
  • 4/11 (36.4%) over 7.5f-1m & 4/11 (36.4%) made the frame LTO
  • 4/7 (57.1%) in September & 2/4 (50%) won LTO

And now we'll close with a look at the LTO Winner Snippet where an overall 2 year record of...

is very good, but longer term and more specifically to today's race, I've found that in A/W handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 since 2014, Gary Moore's LTO winners are 20 from 73 (27.4% SR) for 19.3pts (+26.5% ROI) profit, including the following baker's dozen of relevant angles at play today...

  • 18/66 (27.3%) on Polytrack & 17/57 (29.8%) in sub-£4k races
  • 12/38 (31.6%) at 6-25 dslr & 9/29 (31%) here at Kempton
  • 7/26 (26.9%) at Class 6 & 7/21 (33.3%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 7/16 (43.75%) over a mile & 6/14 (42.9%) during August/September
  • 5/13 (38.5%) with 6 yr olds & 5/10 (50%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs
  • 4/12 (33.3%) on Std to Slow & 4/11 (36.4%) in 2019/20 & 4/8 (50%) in September...

...all pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG (or bigger in places!) as was available at 8.25am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.45 Warwick : Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Prominent, disputed lead after 3rd, pushed along before 3 out, lost position well before next, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

Much of my "work" has already been done for me on the racecard, but I'll add a little meat to the bones of the following too...

Mindful of not trying to teach you how to suck eggs (there are videos out there for that!), I'll quickly whizz through the above that tells us we've a consistent/in-form runner from an in-form yard who do well when today's jockey is on board and have also been very adept at getting winners to "double up".

So, what can I add?

Well, the recent 121 form for this 5 yr old gelding has all come in the last six weeks since the first-time adoption of cheekpieces and they are retained today (cp4 on the card). One of those wins was on good to firm ground, so the surface shouldn't be an issue. He has no run at today's trip, but is 5 from 21 at 7f and has won over a mile in the past, he's 5 from 13 in fields of 8-10 runners and has one win and one place with Paul Mulrennan on his back.

So that's the horse's suitability assessed, next to the trainer form. The card clearly tells us that David Brown's horses are 3 from 9 in the last fortnight and all I'm going to add to that is to say that in handicaps they are 3 from 7.

The trainer jockey 1-year record is good at 8 from 30 and with this race in mind, it's handy (IMO) to know that those 30 runs include...

  • 8 from 24 from males
  • 7 from 19 at odds of evens to 15/2
  • 7 from 19 in fields of 10 runners or fewer
  • 5 from 19 in handicaps
  • 5 from 18 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5 from 14 made the frame LTO
  • 4 from 6 from 5 yr olds
  • and 2 from 6 from LTO winners...

...and we know (via the racecard) the yard has done well over the last couple of years with LTO winners with 7 of 21 going on to win again. This isn't just a recent thing, as closer inspection of trainer David Brown's runners show that over the last five (inc this one) Flat seasons, his Class 3-6 handicappers who won last time out are 9 from 28 (32.1% SR) for profits of 33.9pts (+121% ROI) at Industry SP backed blindly, including 5 winners from the last 9.

Imposing an Evens to 7/1 odds range on those runners shows five winners from the last six...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.45 Ayr : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Prominent, ridden to challenge over 1f out, ran on well final furlong but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £3,165 to the winner... 

Why?...

Having lost out narrowly on successive days up at Ayr, I was sorely tempted to try again with Thursday's pick being turned back out again, but this 8yr old gelding then caught my eye, so it's chasing in Devon instead.

Our boy's overall career record of 2 from 26 isn't the most inspiring, but he has finished 151 in the three contests where he has worn a visor in a field of 8-1 runners at a trip beyond three miles. These include 2 from 2 in September/October, 1 from 2 under today's jockey David Noonan and 1 from 1 here at Newton Abbot, acquired in a course and distance success here last time out, eleven days ago.

That C&D win was what piqued my interest, because I remembered that Newton Abbot is one of a handful of courses where I look out for LTO C&D winners as since the start of 2017, such runners are 15 from 47 (31.9% SR) for 9.3pts (+19.8% ROI) profit at this venue and these include of relevance today...

  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 15.9pts (+41.9%) from males
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.8pts (+57%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 11.6pts (+82.9%) at 6-15 dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 2.95pts (+15.5%) over fences
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 2.93pts (+48.8%) over this 3m2f course and distance

...whilst males + 5-9 runners + 6-15 dslr = 6/8 (75% SR) for 13.56pts (+169.5% ROI) inc 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.62pts (+192.4%) over fences and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.41pts (+47.1%) over this 3m2f trip : all over fences.

I could stop there, but I just couldn't put up a son of Midnight Legend with out referring to (as many long-standing readers will know!) one of my all-time favourite NH sires, who sadly is no longer with us, but his offspring continue to win races. I have a plethora of angles relating to Midnight Legend progeny, so here's one for today's contest...

...in hcp chases over 3m1.5f to 3m2f since the start of 2017, they are 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 20.63pts (+29.5% ROI), from which they are...

  • 14/37 (37.8%) for 39pts (+105.3%) at the age of 8 or 9
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 15pts (+29.4%) from males
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 25.3pts (+97.4%) with 8/9 yr old males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 2.5pts (+19%) here at Newton Abbot
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.5pts (+68.7%) from males here at N.A.
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.7pts (+94.8%) from 8/9 yo here at N.A.
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.7pts (+142.9%) from 8/9 yo males here at Newton Abbot

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.35am Saturday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS