Posts

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.50 Leicester : Ninjago @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway under pressure inside final 2f, soon switched right and ridden, stayed on to chase winner well inside final furlong, always held)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

One of only two former course and distance winners in today's race, having prevailed here over track and trip LTO 13 days ago.

Our boy has certainly made a good start to handicap life, making the frame in all seven efforts, winning twice, including that LTO win under today's jockey Nicola Currie. Nicola is generally very good value for her 3lb claim and I'm happy to see her booked for this ride on a track she fares well at.

In fact, her record here stands at 11 winners from 72 (15.3% SR) for profits of 57.1pts at an ROI of 79.4% and these rides include of relevance today...

  • in 2018 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 68.6pts (+167.2%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 80.5pts (+223.6%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs in 2018 : 8/21 (38.1%) for 88.6pts (+421.7%)
  • and over this 7f course and distance this year : 4/8 (50%) for 42.9pts (+536.2%)

Meanwhile, our trainer Joseph Tuite's record on handicaps over the last 22 months with LTO winners stands at 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 20.22pts (+50.6% ROI) profit, including of note today...

  • for prizes of less than £8,000 : 13/35 (37.1%) for 25.22pts (+72.1%)
  • males : 11/34 (32.4%) for 18.55pts (+54.6%)
  • on the A/W : 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.07pts (+77.6%)
  • June to August  6/16 (37.5%) for 19.09pts (+119.3%)
  • over 6f to 1m : 5/15 (33.3%) for 9.23pts (+61.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.37pts (+49.1%)
  • within 14 days of that LTO win : 6/13 (46.2%) for 9.83pts (+75.7%)
  • and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.47pts (+249.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOGa price offered by at least a dozen firms (as at 7.35pm on Monday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Newmarket : Staxton @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, hung left under pressure entering final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ninjago 10/3 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Not entirely disgraced last time out when fourth in a far better contest, this gelding now drops 2 classes to run here off a mark a pound lower than LTO.

His trainer, Paul Midgely, is in good form right now with a record of 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) producing profits of 20pts at an ROI of 68.9% over the last fortnight, whilst the past 7 days have yielded 4 winners from 17 (23.5% SR) and 13.57pts (+79.8% ROI) profit.

This recent good form doesn't surprise me as Paul is one the trainers featured in my "Late Summer Handicaps" micro-system, which in Paul's case focuses on his record in Class 3-5, Flat handicaps in August/September.

Over the last 5 (including this one) seasons, such runners are 28 from 170 (16.47% SR) for 122pts (+71.8% ROI) profit, from which...

  • over 5/6 furlongs : 27/157 (17.2%) for 126.8pts (+80.7%)
  • males : 25/140 (17.9%) for 135.7pts (+96.9%)
  • with an OR of 70-95 : 25/130 (19.2%) for 141.2pts (+108.6%)
  • 4-10 yr olds : 24/126 (19.1%) for 140pts (+111.1%)
  • over 6f : 9/62 (14.5%) for 39.7pts (+64%)
  • at Class 5 : 11/58 (19%) for 38.9pts (+67.1%)
  • 9-15 days since last run : 14/67 (20.9%) for 98.9pts (+147.6%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/45 (15.6%) for 45.9pts (+102%)
  • and off a mark 1lb lower than LTO : 6/30 (20%) for 27.5pts (+91.8%)

...AND from the above...it's clear that 4 to 10 yr old males racing over 5 to 6 furlongs off marks of 70 to 95 seem to do the best and such runners are 20 from 93 (21.5% SR) for profits of 147.6pts at an ROI of some 158.7%.

These 93 can be further broken down as before...

  • over 6f : 8/49 (16.3%) for 46.7pts (+95.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/15 (40%) for 46.3pts (+308.6%)
  • 9-15 days since last run : 10/40 (25%) for 102.6pts (+256.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/27 (25.9%) for 63.9pts (+236.8%)
  • and off a mark 1lb lower than LTO : 3/17 (17.7%) for 19pts (+111.7%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ninjago 10/3 BOGa price offered by SkyBet, 10Bet and SportPesa (as at 6.05pm on Sunday). Those able to do so, should consider the 4/1 BOG or 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365/Betway respectively.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Newmarket : Staxton @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to chase winner over 1f out, hung left under pressure entering final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ninjago 10/3 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Not entirely disgraced last time out when fourth in a far better contest, this gelding now drops 2 classes to run here off a mark a pound lower than LTO.

His trainer, Paul Midgely, is in good form right now with a record of 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) producing profits of 20pts at an ROI of 68.9% over the last fortnight, whilst the past 7 days have yielded 4 winners from 17 (23.5% SR) and 13.57pts (+79.8% ROI) profit.

This recent good form doesn't surprise me as Paul is one the trainers featured in my "Late Summer Handicaps" micro-system, which in Paul's case focuses on his record in Class 3-5, Flat handicaps in August/September.

Over the last 5 (including this one) seasons, such runners are 28 from 170 (16.47% SR) for 122pts (+71.8% ROI) profit, from which...

  • over 5/6 furlongs : 27/157 (17.2%) for 126.8pts (+80.7%)
  • males : 25/140 (17.9%) for 135.7pts (+96.9%)
  • with an OR of 70-95 : 25/130 (19.2%) for 141.2pts (+108.6%)
  • 4-10 yr olds : 24/126 (19.1%) for 140pts (+111.1%)
  • over 6f : 9/62 (14.5%) for 39.7pts (+64%)
  • at Class 5 : 11/58 (19%) for 38.9pts (+67.1%)
  • 9-15 days since last run : 14/67 (20.9%) for 98.9pts (+147.6%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/45 (15.6%) for 45.9pts (+102%)
  • and off a mark 1lb lower than LTO : 6/30 (20%) for 27.5pts (+91.8%)

...AND from the above...it's clear that 4 to 10 yr old males racing over 5 to 6 furlongs off marks of 70 to 95 seem to do the best and such runners are 20 from 93 (21.5% SR) for profits of 147.6pts at an ROI of some 158.7%.

These 93 can be further broken down as before...

  • over 6f : 8/49 (16.3%) for 46.7pts (+95.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/15 (40%) for 46.3pts (+308.6%)
  • 9-15 days since last run : 10/40 (25%) for 102.6pts (+256.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/27 (25.9%) for 63.9pts (+236.8%)
  • and off a mark 1lb lower than LTO : 3/17 (17.7%) for 19pts (+111.7%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ninjago 10/3 BOGa price offered by SkyBet, 10Bet and SportPesa (as at 6.05pm on Sunday). Those able to do so, should consider the 4/1 BOG or 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365/Betway respectively.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

8.05 Newmarket : Major Partnership @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden and every chance 2f out, edged left approaching final furlong, one pace and lost 2nd towards finish)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Staxton 5/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £28012 to the winner...

Why?

A 3 yr old colt who was a winner last time out 21 days ago in a similar Class 2 handicap under today's jockey (PJ McDonald) on good to soft round over this very course and distance, making him the only previous course and distance winner in this field today.

In addition to prior C&D success, a quick look at the pace/draw tabs on the Geegeez racecards (I do take a look sometimes 😉 ), we are advised that prominent runners (like our pick) drawn low (we're in box 1) tend to so well in this sort of contest, so that's another positive.

As is trainer Tim Easterby's record over the last 5 seasons in UK handicaps with horses who not only won last time out but also have at least one course and distance win under their belts.

Such animals are 12 from 59 (20.3% SR) for 31pts (+52.5% ROI) with those running on the Flat winning 12 of 52 (23.1%) for 38pts (+73%), from which...

  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 10/39 (25.6%) for 42.6pts (+109.2%)
  • males are 8/39 (20.5%) for 31.5pts (+80.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 22.6pts (+150.4%)
  • on good to soft ground : 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.9pts (+154.3%)
  • competing for prizes of £12.5k to £30k : 4/10 (40%) for 27.56pts (+275.6%)
  • over 6f : 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.3pts (+166.4%)

and finally, PJ McDonald is in the saddle as I mentioned earlier and it would be remiss of me not to mention his record of 10 wins from 42 rides (23.8% SR) on the July course over the last two seasons that have generated profits of 23.5pts at an ROI of 55.9%...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Staxton 5/1 BOGa price offered by at least nine firms (as at 8.55pm on Friday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.30 Kempton : Pot Luck @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, effort over 2f out, soon one pace, no extra closing stages)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.10 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kinglami 11/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a decent third over course and distance 8 days ago, only beaten by just over half a length on ground that was probably on the quick side for him. Back on his favoured soft ground off the same mark, I fancy to get himself (and me in the process!) back to winning ways.

His overall profile says this is exactly the kind of race he wants as from an already decent record on the Flat reading 9 from 46 (19.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+47.6% ROI) profit, he is...

  • 9/43 (20.9%) for 24.9pts (+57.9%) on a straight track
  • 9/38 (23.7%) for 29.9pts (+78.7%) in cheekpieces
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 35.9pts (+112.2%) at Class 4-6
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 25.1pts (+83.7%) over 6f
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 27.4pts (+105.3%) from June to August
  • 6/20 (30%) for 29.3pts (+146.5%) in 2017/18
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 23.6pts (+130.8%) at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.5pts (+149.7%) on Soft ground
  • 4/10 (40%) for 24.9pts (+249%) here at Chepstow
  • 3/5 (60%) for 22.8pts (+456%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 16.3pts (+326%) under jockey Ryan Rossa

He is trained by John O'Shea, whose Flat runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 12.98pts (+76.4% ROI) over the last 30 days, with Ryan Rossa riding all four winners from just nine starts (44.4% SR) for 20.98pts profit at an ROI of 233.1%.

And overall when using Ryan to ride his Flat handicappers, Mr O'Shea's runners are 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+169.1%), from which...

  • here at Chepstow : 4/10 (40%) for 16.94pts (+169.4%)
  • with Ryan claiming 3lbs : 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.28pts (+191.9%)
  • and with Ryan claiming 3lbs here at Chepstow : 2/5 (40%) for 14.1pts (+282%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kinglami 11/4 BOGa price offered by over a dozen firms at 6.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.15 Ffos Las : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 7/1 (Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, never able to challenge, weakened closing stages)

Wednessday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pot Luck 3/1 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 2yr old filly trained by Andrew Balding, whose runners are in fine form right now (wish I was!), notching up 8 winners from 19 (42.1% SR) over the last 7 days.

More long-term, Andrew's runners making their second start in a handicap are 40 from 229 (17.5% SR) for 99.9pts (+43.6% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these runners include...

  • June-October : 24/143 (16.8%) for 114pts (+79.7%)
  • 7f/1m : 13/76 (17.1%) for 62.8pts (+82.7%)
  • females : 13/66 (19.7%) for 52.8pts (+80%)
  • in 2018 : 10/36 (27.8%) for 69.5pts (+192.9%)
  • Class 6 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 2.9pts (+8.6%)
  • at Kempton : 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.4pts (+68%)

...AND... females at 7f/1m in June-October = 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 53.9pts (+359.6% ROI) including 2 wins from 3 this year so far.

Joshua Bryan takes the ride today and takes 3lbs off our girl's back with his claim and Andrew Balding + A/W handicaps + 3lb claimers = 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 26.3pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including of relevance today...

  • on Polytrack : 13/48 (27.1%) for 14.5pts (+30.1%)
  • over 7f to 8.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%)
  • Sub-5/1 shots are 11/25 (44%) for 19pts (+76%)
  • and here at Kempton : 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.4pts (+138.5%)

...AND...at odds shorter than 5/1 on Polytrack over 7f to 8.5f = 6/10 (60% SR) for 14.87pts (+148.7% ROI) with one winner from two here at Kempton showing 3.75pts profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pot Luck 3/1 BOGa price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.40 Ayr : Acadian Angel @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, challenged over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, one pace inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Air of York 3/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Soft ground worth £3817 to the winner...

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively short, sweet and hopefully simple....

Here we have a 6yr old with 3 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from his last eight starts, so he's certainly in decent nick and he's got a previous soft ground win to his name.

His trainer John Flint isn't the most well known on the circuit, doesn't have the largest string of horses and CANNOT be followed religiously in the hope of making a profit, but like so many of his profession, he has found himself a niche where he is (a) successful and (b) profitable to follow and in John's case, we're going to look at his record in lower grade shorter distance Flat handicaps as a way in to this race, because...

...2012-18 / John Flint / Class 5+6 / Flat handicaps / 5 to 10 furlongs = 16 from 104 (15.4% SR) for 63.4pts (+60.9% ROI) : compare this to his overall record on the Flat in that period of those not fitting the above which stands at 12/147 (8.16% SR) for a loss of 52.6pts (-35.8% ROI), showing how much better he does in this area.

And of those 104 runners...

  • those last seen 1 to 7 weeks earlier : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 86.4pts (+106.6%) this should probably have been the cut-off for the angle above
  • July-October : 14/63 (22.2%) for 72.7pts (+115.4%)
  • using a 3lb claimer in the saddle  :5/20 (25%) for 22.1pts (+110.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 4/17 (23.5%) for 3.5pts (+20.5%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/22 (22.7%) for 31.3pts (+142.2%)

...AND...in July to October after 1 to 7 weeks rest = 14/57 (24.6% SR) for 78.7pts (+138% ROI), which if I'm honest is a more than acceptable stat to hang a bet on, but if you wanted that breaking down, here's how it looks under today's conditions...

  • 6 yr olds  :4/15 (26.7%) for 14.5pts (+96.6%)
  • 3lb claimer : 5/13 (38.5%) for 29.1pts (+224.1%)
  • Soft ground : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.6pts (+57.4%)
  • 6yo + 3lb claimer : 2/5 (40%) for 5.2pts (+104%)
  • 6yo on Soft : 1/2 (50%) for 1.66pts (+83%)
  • 3lb claimer on Soft : 1/1 (100%) for 2.66pts (+266%)
  • 6yo + 3lb claimer on Soft : 1/1 (100%) for 2.66pts (+266%)

And today's jockey claiming the 3lb allowance is the very talented Nicola Currie who is riding really well right now having clocked up 5 winners and 5 placers from her 20 rides over the last week...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Air of York 3/1 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 Chelmsford : Reckless Endeavour @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch, driven when not clear run inside final 2f and again 1f out, ridden and stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never threatened winner)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Acadian Angel 11/4 BOG

In a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly ran really well in a narrow defeat last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance a fortnight ago, going down by just half a length. The form of that race has hopefully been franked by the fourth-placed horse, Zoravan (2.25 lengths further back that day), reappearing to win a Class 5 contest over this track and trip as recently as last Saturday.

Trainer JJ Quinn is in good form of late with 12 winners from 57 (21.1% SR) generating profits of 36.42pts (+63.9% ROI) for his followers over the last 30 days and these runners include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 11/46 (23.9%) for 34.6pts (+75.2%)
  • at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 50.4pts (+117.3%)
  • over trips of 5f to 1m : 12/40 (30%) for 53.4pts (+133.6%)
  • ridden by Jason Hart : 8/28 (28.6%) for 43.3pts (+154.5%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.5pts (+62.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/19 (26.3%) for 25.1pts (+132.2%)

...AND...in handicaps over 5f to 1m at odds of 7/4 to 10/1 : 11/26 (42.3% SR) for 54.6pts (+210% ROI), from which...

  • Jason Hart : 7/15 (46.7%) for 43.43pts (+289.6%)
  • Good to Firm : 6/11 (54.6%) for 26.5pts (+240.5%)
  • Class 6 : 5/11 (45.5%) for 33.1pts (+301.1%)
  • Jason Hart & Class 6 : 5/9 (55.6%) for 35.1pts (+390.2%)
  • Jason Hart on Good to Firm : 3/6 (50%) for 17.7pts (+394.9%)
  • Class 6 on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 12.5pts (+313.4%)
  • Jason Hart / Class 6 / Good to Firm : 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.5pts (+451.2%)

Meanwhile, more longer-term than the above, Mr Quinn's handicappers are 23/117 (19.7% SR) for 63.8pts (+54.5% ROI) here at Ayr since the start of the 2013 campaign and from these runners and of relevance today...

  • those last seen 6 to 45 days ago : 20/86 (23.3%) for 83.5pts (+97.1%)
  • competing for £8,000 or less : 19/83 (22.9%) for 70.25pts (+84.6%)
  • at 5f to 1m : 17/77 (22.1%) for 59.3pts (+77%)
  • and 3 to 5 yr olds are 17/76 (22.4%) for 81.3pts (+106.9%)

...AND...3 to 5 yr olds racing over 5f to 1m for a prize of £8k or less, 6 to 25 days after last their last run are 9/27 (33.3% SR) for 77.84pts (+288.3% ROI) with a 4 from 12 (33.3%) record at Class 6 that has produced 28.49pts profit at an ROI of 237.4%.

Finally (!), a quick note about our jockey Jason Hart, as since the start of the 2014 season he has a 21/110 (19.1% SR) record in handicaps here at Ayr and backing all of them would have resulted in profits of 84.3pts (+76.6% ROI)...

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Acadian Angel 11/4 BOGa price offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.20 Wolverhampton : Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 13/8 (Led early, tracked leader until over 11f out, hung left over 1f out, staying on same pace when bumped well inside final furlong, beaten by just over a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

A 5yr old gelding who has 3 wins and 5 places from 11 runs on Polytrack including 3 wins and 3 places over 6f and is now back on his last winning mark from when he won a similar Class 2 A/W handicap over this trip at Lingfield.

His trainer, Jamie Osborne is in reasonable enough form having landed 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, he is 26 from 152 (17.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+34.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford, from which...

  • those racing within 15 days of their last run are 12/72 (16.6%) for 21.8pts (+30.3%)
  • over 6f : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.5pts (+33.1%)
  • those ridden by Dougie Costello : 9/49 (18.4%) for 34.8pts (+71%)
  • and racing over 6f within 15 days : 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.8%)

Whilst more generally in UK A/W handicaps over 5f to 8.5f since the start of 2013, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO 2 to 5 days ago are 161/724 (22.2% SR) for 198.1pts (+27.4% ROI), including...

  • 3-7 yr olds : 133/590 (22.5%) for 180.2pts (+30.5%)
  • males : 130/559 (23.3%) for 170.2pts (+30.4%)
  • 3-7 yr old males : 105/438 (24%) for 148.9pts (+34%)
  • on Polytrack : 90/416 (21.6%) for 17.8pts (+28.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds on Polytrack : 76/339 (22.4%) for 120.4pts (+35.5%)
  • and 3-7 yr old males on Polytrack : 58/244 (23.8%) for 93.2pts (+38.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Miss Mumtaz @ 9/4 BOG a poor 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leader, led 4f out, headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Conkering Hero 5/2 BOG

In a 6-runner, Class 5, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has won 4 of his 13 A/W races to date and comes here in great form having won each of the last three, culminating in a course and distance success here a week ago and of his 4/13 A/W record, he has the following...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 at the age of 4
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 in a visor
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 over 2m/2m½f
  • 2 wins from 4 in fields of 6/7 runners
  • 2 wins from 3 in July / August
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Wolverhampton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 with Finley Marsh in the saddle
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (that LTO win a week ago)

Trainer Joseph Tuite is 15 from 74 (20.3% SR) for 18.81pts (+25.4% ROI) with his Flat & A/W LTO winners since the start of 2015, including...

  • 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.1pts (+45.3%) in handicaps
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 7.07pts (+22.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 16.55pts (+57.1%) sent off shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 38.67pts (+133.3%) from June to August
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.89pts (+58.2%) in 2018
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.68pts (+72.3%) 6-10 days after their LTO win
  • 5/10 (50%) for 43.15pts (+431.5%) over 1m6f and beyond
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.04pts (+113%) here at Wolverhampton

As I alluded earlier, 5lb claimer Finley Marsh is in the saddle today and so far this year, he is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 24.9pts (+177.9% ROI) on the Tuite string of horses, from which he is...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.9pts (+199.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.9pts (+224.2%) when claiming his 5lb allowance
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 27.9pts (+253.7%) when claiming 5lbs in a handicap

And finally for this one (phew!)... Since the start of 2013 in Class 5 A/W contests, horses who won over course and distance last time out by 3 lengths or less at odds of 11/4 to 20/1 are 25 from 52 (48.1% SR) for 51.45pts (+98.9% ROI) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Conkering Hero 5/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 9.45pm on Thursday. with plenty of 9/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.30 Chepstow : Swendab @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led after 1f, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Fillies' Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly might well be a seven-race maiden but having made the frame on 5 (3 of which were at a higher grade than today) of those 7 outings, she certainly is due a win and she ran particularly well last time out just six days ago and it is hoped that a first time visor might just eke a little more out of her here to break her duck.

Her trainer Ian Williams has been successful at this venue over the years, saddling up 27 winners from 176 (15.3% SR) for profits of 40pts (+22.% ROI) since 2008 and these include...

  • 23/75 (30.7%) for 59.48pts (+79.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 53.27pts (+88.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 39.83pts (+76.6%) on Good to Firm
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 31.5pts (+70%) at Class 5
  • and 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.41pts (+87.6%) after resting for 10 days or less

This quick turnaround of a horse last seen 6 days ago is a successful strategy adopted by Ian Williams who has had 136 winners from 545 (24.95% SR) for 224.8pts (+41.25% ROI) profit since 2010 with horses turned back out just 4 to 10 days after their last run (resting not rusting, I call it) and of these 545 quick returners...

  • Handicaps : 113/438 (25.8%) for 253.8pts (+58%)
  • Flat : 50/178 (28.1%) for 69.2pts (+38.9%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 44/155 (28.4%) for 70.43pts (+45.44%)

...and finally, it;s worth looking at Ian's record with horses wearing a visor for the first time, as since 2010, this approach has found him 19 winners from 100 (19% SR) and profits of 87.19pts (+87.19% ROI), from which...

  • Handicaps : 15/84 (17.9%) for 86.7pts (+103.2%)
  • Flat : 12/43 (27.9%) for 91.7pts |(+213.2%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 9/38 (23.7%) for 89.39pts (+235.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOGa price offered by 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.13pm on Wednesday. Bet365 however are offering 11/4 BOG so grab that if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.55 Newbury : Stay Classy @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch in mid-division, switched left and headway 2f out, challenged over 1f out, led narrowly well inside final furlong, headed close home and beaten by a neck)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swendab 10/3 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

This might be a low grade fixture-fulfilling type of affair, but trainers/owners don't keep 10 yr olds in training unless they think they can do themselves justice and Swendab is proving there's still plenty of life in his legs. After all, he's only had 130 races to date!

130 races or not, he's back in form and today's conditions look well suited for him, as I'll explain shortly. He was just touched off by a head here over course and distance two starts ago, before winning another Class 6, 5f affair at Ffos Las last time six days ago by 2 lengths after making all and could easily have won by further that day, so to be effectively just 4lbs worse off in what looks a slightly weaker race on paper might not be enough to anchor him, plus he has won off higher marks in the past, including over this C&D.

As many late developers do, Swendab failed to win as a 2 yr old, but since the age of 3, he has won his fair share : 17 from 125 (13.6% SR) to be precise and blindly backing him would have made a marginal profit of 2.92pts (+2.34% ROI), but backing him under the following dozen relevant angles (all of which are in play today) has been more than worthwhile...

  • in handicaps : 17/121 (14.1%) for 6.92pts (+5.72)
  • 4-20 days since last run : 14/80 (17.5%) for 23.76pts (+29.7%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 55-70 : 12/77 (15.6%) for 26.88pts (+34.9%)
  • over 5f : 13/71 (18.3%) for 22.35pts (+31.5%)
  • on a straight track : 10/59 (17%) for 12pts (+20.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 7/47 (14.9%) for 24.37pts (+51.9%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/43 (30.2%) for 26.91pts (+62.6%)
  • in fields of 4-7 runners : 8/38 (21.1%) for 8.15pts (+21.5%)
  • 4-9 days since last run : 6/26 (23.1%) for 7.87pts (+30.3%)
  • at Chepstow : 3/19 (15.8%) for 9.18pts (+48.3%)
  • in August : 6/18 (33.3%) for 13.51pts (+75%)
  • and after a win LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.86pts (+86.6%)

...AND...in 5f handicaps off a mark of 50-70 with less than 3 weeks rest = 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 42.02pts (+113.6% ROI), from which since the start of last season ie as a 9/10 yr old : 6/23 (26.1%) for 37.11pts (+161.4%)!!

His trainer John O'Shea is also in good touch right with 3 winners from 5 over the last fortnight, whilst his record on the Flat with LTO winners since 2011 stands at 18/50 (36% SR) for 44.9pts (+89.8% ROI) and whilst that's not a massive sample size, it does throw up some interesting angles that are pertinent today...

  • in handicaps : 17/49 (34.7%) for 42.1pts (+85.9%)
  • less than 3 weeks since last run : 17/41 (41.5%) for 50pts (+121.9%)
  • at same distance as LTO win : 11/25 (44%) for 29.65pts (+118.6%)
  • at same class as LTO win : 11/24 (45.8%) for 30.5pts (+127%)
  • at Chepstow : 9/21 (42.9%) for 26.6pts (+126.6%)
  • using a jockey claiming 5lbs : 7/19 (36.8%) for 19.66pts (+103.5%)
  • in August : 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.3pts (+108%)
  • at Class 6 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 18.75pts (+125%)
  • and over 5f : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.3pts (+111.8%)

...AND...from the above...Chepstow handicappers at the same class/distance as an LTO win in the previous three weeks = 4/4 (100% SR) for 19.55pts (+488.75% ROI), interestingly all ridden by claimers!

...which all points to...a 1pt win bet on Swendab 10/3 BOGa price Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were slightly better @ 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.50 Newton Abbot : Sword of Fate @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 6/4 (Led, driven and headed before 2 out, weakened between last 2)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Classy 9/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5 Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2 yr old filly was a winner last time out just 15 days ago, staying on well and doing all her best work in the closing stages of a Class 4 contest over 6f, suggesting that an extra furlong might well suit her, whilst a drop in class should also help.

Tom Queally retains the ride from that win and the hood she wore for the first time that day is redeployed.

She had Lively Lydia a length and a half back in third place that day, but the latter reappeared yesterday at Windsor to make all in a 5 length victory, so that's another positive, as is the general recent good form of her yard, as Richard Spencer's horses are 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 15pts (+44.1% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • on the Flat : 8/27 (27.6%) for 17.94pts (+61.9%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/27 (25.9%) for 17.06pts (+63.2%)
  • 2 yr olds are 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.78pts (+98.9%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 8/16 (50%) for 14.89pts (+93%)
  • with Tom Q in the saddle : 4/15 (26.7%) for 0.6pts (+4%)
  • females are 4/13 (30.8%) for 17.65pts (+135.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/10 (50%) for 20.25pts (+202.5%)
  • and over 7f : 3/10 (30%) for 2.26pts (+22.6%)

and whilst the Richard Spencer / Tom Queally angle has only been marginally profitable over the last month, the strike rate of 26.7% is both (a) good and (b) not a real surprise to me as since the start of this year the partnership has 8 winners from 36 (22.2% SR) for a more palatable/satisfactory 16.95pts profit at an ROI of 47.1% and these 36 runners include...

  • on the Flat : 6/25 (24%) for 23.43pts (+93.7%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.95pts (+120.6%)
  • 2 yr olds are 6/24 (25%) for 20.46pts (+85.2%)
  • on good to firm ground : 4/18 (22.2%) for 17.26pts (+95.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 6.4pts (+53.3%)
  • with horses stepping up in trip : 2/10 (20%) for 6.35pts (+63.5%)
  • and those dropping down a grade are 2/7 (28.6%) for 6.16pts (+88%)

...whilst 2 yr olds on the Flat at odds of 10/1 and shorter are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 28.93pts (+263% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stay Classy 9/2 BOGa price available from half a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th August 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

7.35 Lingfield : Dr Doro @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leader centre, led this group over 2f out, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sword of Fate 7/2 BOG

In a 4-runner, Class 3 Novices Chase for 5yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9115 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding comes here in fine form, having won three of his last four starts and is 3 from 3 over fences, including a course and distance win here last time out a month ago.

That race was a similar Class 3 one to today's and 5lb claimer Tommie O'Brien retains the ride on the horse that has won 6 of 11 races so far, including...

  • 5/8 going left handed (3/3 over fences)
  • 4/6 on Good ground (2/2 over fences)
  • 5/5 in fields of 1-7 runners (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/5 at the age of 5 (3/3 over fences)
  • 3/4 in non-handicaps
  • 2/4 at Class 3 (2/2 over fences)
  • 2/4 under Tommie O'Brien (1/1 over fences)
  • 3/3 in chases
  • 1/1 here at Newton Abbot (in a chase)
  • 1/1 over 2m5f (in a chase)
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance (in a chase)

His trainer Tom Lacey has been a revelation over the last couple of years or so and is one of the rare breed of trainers who have been profitable to back blindly in recent years. In fact since the start of 2016, his runners are 72/326 (22.1%) for 246.7pts (+75.7% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • make runners at 58/257 (22.6%) for 224.2pts (+87.2%)
  • within 75 days of their last run = 54/235 (23%) for 146.5pts (+62.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 33/141 (23.4%) for 152.6pts (+108.2%)
  • with Tommie O'Brien : 13/62 (21%) for 71.2pts (+114.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/57 (22.8%) for 47pts (+82.4%)
  • and over fences : 15/49 (30.6%) for 13.4pts (+27.2%)

AND...from the above : 5 yr old males running within 60 days of their last run are 23/86 (26.7% SR) for 118.3pts (+137.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sword of Fate 7/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Sunday whilst there was plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!