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Stat of the Day, 26th August 2017

Friday's Result :

2.25 York: Dartmouth @ 4/1 BOG - 2nd at 11/4 Mid-division, tracked leaders 3f out, challenged over 2f out, ridden to lead narrowly over 1f out, drifted right under pressure inside final furlong, kept on, headed post, beaten by a nose...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Cartmel:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Beeno @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Lady Luck is being a bit of an unsavoury sort just now, as we got chinned on the line for a second straight day. Hard to take but we move on.

Saturday's pick is a hat-trick-seeking hurdler who makes the grade as a result of his trainer's excellent course record. The trainer is Ken Slack, whose Cartmel scoresheet reads seven wins from 21 starts in the last five years (since he took over from his mum, in fact). That 33% strike rate has been good for a 50 (yes, fifty!) point profit, and an A/E and IV of well over 2.0.

Six of those seven winners came in handicap company, from 17 starters, bringing the hit rate up to 35%.

Beeno has been responsible for two of those six victories, both over course and distance and the more recent in this class, Class 3. Beeno's course record reads 411, the two wins on his last two starts.

He has an inexperienced rider, Mr R Hogg, but a rider who has tasted success on the selection. Beeno has been a facile winner the last twice over this track and trip and, while that was not lost on the handicapper, he must have every chance of the hat-trick at a perfectly playable price.

...so, for now, it's... a 1pt win bet on Beeno @ 7/2 BOG which was available with bet365, Skybet and Victor at 9.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Cartmel

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 3rd June 2017

It's DERBY DAY folks !! Yes, it's that time of year again as this season's crop of the best 3 year-old middle distance horses do battle on the Epsom Downs - Aidan O'Brien will be looking for his sixth Derby success, but there is plenty of opposition against his Irish raiders this year. So, like all Saturday's we've got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends angle - use these key stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

 

 

Epsom Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.00 - Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y ITV

14/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Never run at Epsom before
12/14 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
11/14 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/14 – Placed last time out
10/14 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Favourites that were placed
8/14 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winners from stall 1
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/14 – Won by trained Sir Michael Stoute
3/14 – Won by trained Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Stall 2 has just one place to its name in the last 14 runnings

2.35 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV

14/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
12/14 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6 or 7
12/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/14 – Had raced within the last month
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had raced at Epsom before
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
4/14 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/14 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Epsom Icon won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3.10 – INVESTEC DIOMED STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

14/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/14 – Aged 5 or older
11/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Had raced at Epsom before
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 - Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

15/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (11 within the last 4 weeks)
12/15 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/15– Unplaced favourites
11/15 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
10/15 – Had raced at Epsom previously (only 3 had won)
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/15 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/15 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 14/1

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4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

15/15 – Raced no more than 5 times before
15/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/15 – Had won a Group race before
14/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Favourites that were placed
10/15 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/15 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/15 – Had won a Group One before
7/15 – Irish-trained winners
6/15 – Won by the favourite
4/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 5 in all)
4/15 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/15 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/15 – Won over 1m4f before
0/15 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 4/1
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013 & 2014

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 6th May 2017

It’s day one of Guineas Weekend at Newmarket this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also taking in two races at Goodwood. As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

Saturday 6th May 2017

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)


1.50 - championsofracing.co.uk Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

12/12 – Had won at least twice before
12/12 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/12 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
10/12 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
10/12 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
7/12 – Rated between 90 and 95
6/12 – Aged 4 years-old
5/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Having their first run of the season
5/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Came from stall 9
1/12 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1

2.20 - Longholes Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

13/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Won 3 or more times before
12/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
11/14 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
11/14 – Had run at Newmarket before
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Rated between 108 and 114
9/14 – Aged 5 or younger
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Profitable won the race in 2016
Goldream won the race in 2015
Just one placed horse from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

2.55 – Dunaden Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

14/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
11/14 – Won over 1m4f before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
10/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
7/14 – Rated 112 or higher
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Having their first run of the season
6/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Had won a Group race before
6/14 – Aged 5 years-old
4/14 – Returned 7/4 in the betting
4/14 – Ran at Newbury last time out
2/14 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/14 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Andre Fabre
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

15/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/15 – Had won a Group race before
13/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
10/15 – Having their first run of the season
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (7 wins)
5/15 – Had won over a mile before
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
4/15 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
3/15 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
3/15 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012 & 2015
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

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Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – Betfred TV EBF Stallions Daisy Warwick Stakes (Fillies´ & Mares) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/6 – Had won between 2-3 times before
3/6 – Unplaced favourites
4/6 – Aged 4 years-old
2/6 – Winners from stall 2
2/6 – Had raced at Goodwood before
2/6 – Raced at Ascot last time out
1/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/2

2.40 – Betfred "Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s" Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Carried between 8-7 and 8-12
4/4 – Had won between 2-4 races before
4/4 – Winners that came between stalls 5-9 (inc)
3/4 – Ran at Kempton last time out
2/4 – Aged 4 years-old
2/4 – Finished second last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
Russian Realm won this in 2016
Fiftyshadesofgrey won this in 2015

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 22nd April 2017

A busy day for the ITV cameras and something for everyone as they head to Newbury’s first flat meeting of the season, while they are also up at Ayr to cover their Scottish Grand National card - we've eight races across the two venues to take in.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

 

1.55 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

14/14 – Aged 6 or younger
14/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/14 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had won between 2-5 times before
13/14 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
12/14 – Having their first run of the season
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Had raced at Newbury before
9/14 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
7/14 – Drawn 6 or higher
6/14 – Had won a Group race before
5/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford


2.30 –Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

13/14 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
12/14 – Having their first run of the season
12/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/14 – Drawn 5 or higher
8/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Had won over 7f before
5/14 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
5/14 – Had won at Newbury before
4/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/14 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford


3.05 – JLT Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

13/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
12/14 – Having their first run of the season
12/14 – Won at Listed class or better before
11/14 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Had won over 7f before
7/14 – Had won a Group race before
7/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/14 – Irish-trained
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford


3.40 –Be Wiser Insurance Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

14/14 – Aged 6 or younger
14/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/14 – Won no more than 4 times before
12/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/14 – Rated between 85-98
11/14 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
11/14 – Won over at least 1m before
11/14 – Won between 2-4 times before
10/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Had run at Newbury before
3/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
1/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.10 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

14/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
13/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
13/14 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
8/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/14 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
5/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
5/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
4/14 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2


2.45 – QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

14/14 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/14 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Aged 7 or younger
10/14 – Rated 137 or higher
9/14 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

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3.20 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

13/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
12/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
12/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Rated between 127-139
11/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/14 – Finished in the top four last time out
9/14 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – French bred
8/14 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
7/14 – Had run at Ayr before
4/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Won last time out
De Faoithesdream won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1


3.55 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

13/14 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
13/14 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
12/14 – Aged 8 or older
12/14 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
11/14 – Carried 10-9 or less
11/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/14 – Finished in the first three last time out
9/14 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
9/14 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
9/14 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
9/14 – Had won over 3m1f or further
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/14 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/14 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/14 – Trained by Ferdy Murphy
0/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 21/1

 

 

 

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Race of the Day – 23 Mar

Race of the Day - 13:50 Wolverhampton

This is a five furlong sprint on the artificial surface at Wolverhampton, and it has quite an open looking feel to it.

The current favourite is Dashing Poet, and she is the bottom weight, but also has the highest Speed Rating. These ratings are particularly applicable in the shorter contests as they are travelling as their maximum speeds for a lot of the race. As a three year old filly, she is getting the highest possible weight allowances, so has a few things in her favour. Martin Lane is her jockey and he has been in really good form of late, as can be seen by the green 14 and 30 below his name, indicating useful form over the last 14 and 30 days.

The Instant Expert report is free to all users for every race on a Thursday, and Powerful Dream shows up very well with three sections of green and two of amber. She is also just two pounds higher than for her last win, so must enter calculations here today.

Pushkin Museum also looks good at a big price, with two sections of green and three of amber. He is six pounds higher than when last in the winners enclosure, but his liking for today's racing conditions make it encouraging for a place.

Being the sprint distance we would expect early leaders to have a good record, and they really do. Over 22% of them have gone on to victory for a level stakes profit of 517.43 from a sample of 947 runners.

Annie Salts is always quickly away and along with Doctor Parkes and Loumarin, look the most likely early leaders.

Low drawn horses here over this distance have a clear advantage, with over 10% of them winning and almost third of them claiming a place.

This is a definite plus for the fast starting Doctor Parkes, but also offers encouragement for Powerful Dream. Although she is not usually that fast from the stalls, she should still have the opportunity to get a decent position if getting away reasonably well.

 

SotD Update, 6th to 11th March 2017

Another really pleasing set of results this week for SotD, with finishes of 231214, which tells me that even when we get beat, we're getting a good run for our money. As ever we tend to beat SP (and Betfair SP for that matter!) more often than not, justifying me putting the hours in the night before to ensure we maximise our returns.

There's not much for me to add really, other than my usual pessimistic forecast of doom! Only joking, but we really must be ready for a possible downturn, as our run since the start of December stands at 30 winners from 81 at a strike rate of some 37.04% for profits of 78.78pts at an ROI of 97.26%. These returns are far better than our lifetime averages of 28.02% and 26.29% respectively, accrued over 1649 selections (Monday is the 1650 landmark!).

The results over the last 15 weeks suggest we've hit around 8 winners more than expected, so any downturn we do experience can be absorbed easily into the bank you'll have built by now. We WILL have losers and we WILL have a cold spell, patience will be required, as my MO won't change, nor will the effort I put in.

Selections & Results : 06/03/17 to 11/03/17

06/03 : Goring One (adv 10/3 BOG) : 2nd at 10/3
07/03 : Crosse Fire (adv 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
08/03 : Make Music (adv 13/2 BOG 5.2/1 after R4) : WON at 11/4
09/03 : War Department (adv 10/3 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
10/03 : Global Dream (adv 10/3 BOG) : WON at 2/1
11/03 : Twenty Eight Guns (adv 3/1 BOG) : 4th at 9/2

27/02/17 to 04/03/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +4.53pts

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March 2017:
3 winners from 10 = 30.00% SR
P/L: +7.03pts
ROI = +70.00%

2017 so far:
22 winners from 58 = 37.93% SR
P/L: +60.78pts
ROI = +104.79%

Overall:
462 winners from 1649 = 28.02% S.R
P/L: +433.51pts
ROI: +26.29%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 27th February to 4th March

Probably the quietest week for some time, perhaps the expected slow down is kicking in?

Anyway, just the one winner and a couple of placers over the 6 days, bit with us getting 11/2 about Dear Sire on Wednesday, that was enough to ensure a small 0.5pt profit over the week and it was also our 20th winner of the year. Not bad from less than 50 selections to that point!

The upshot is that we finished February with a total profit of 24.25pts, we're already 2.5pts up for March and 2017's figure is +56.25pts. Ups and downs are inevitable in this game, but we've got a decent bank behind us.

Selections & Results : 27/02/17 to 04/03/17

27/02 : Shades of Midnight (adv 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
28/02 : Picansort (adv 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
01/03 : Dear Sire (adv 11/2 BOG) : WON at 4/1
02/03 : Dark Side Dream (adv 4/1 BOG) : u/p at 5/2
03/03 : Beggars Cross (adv 7/2 BOG) : fell at 7/2
04/03 : Bloody Mary (adv 10/3 BOG) : u/p at 7/4

27/02/17 to 04/03/17 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.5pts

February 2017:
9 winners from 22 = 40.91% SR
P/L: +24.25pts
ROI = +110.23%

March 2017:
1 winner from 4 = 25.00% SR
P/L: +2.50pts
ROI = +62.50%

2017 so far:
20 winners from 52 = 38.46% SR
P/L: +56.25pts
ROI = +108.17%

Overall:
460 winners from 1643 = 28.00% S.R
P/L: +428.98pts
ROI: +26.11%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Musselburgh : Dear Sire @ 11/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led approaching next, mistake 2 out, 2 lengths clear when blundered and good recovery by rider last, rider continued without irons flat, ridden out, kept on well to win by 5 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 5yr old gelding who is trained by Chris Dwyer, a trainer with a good record in A/W handicaps in recent years, winning 77 of 454 (17% SR) for 202.5pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • those returning from a break of 4 to 30 days = 71/354 (20.1%) for 239pts (+67.5%)
  • over 5f to 1m : 64/353 (18.1%) for 236.8pts (+67.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 28/115 (24.4%) for 112.4pts (+97.8%)
  • on tapeta : 14/93 (15.1%) for 35.8pts (+38.5%)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 24/83 (28.9%) for 66.2pts (+79.8%)

And from the above, we can ascertain that those racing over 5f to 1m, 4 to 30 days after their last run are 59/279 (21.2% SR) for 261.1pts (+93.6% ROI), of which those who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 124.1pts (+151.3%)

...providing a...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Picansort @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up in rear, not clear run on inside over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, beaten by a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dear Sire 11/2 BOG

Why?

Short and hopefully sweet today...

Donald McCain's record here at Musselburgh since the start of 2012 stands at 33 winners from 149 (22.2% SR) for 28.5pts (+19.2% ROI) profit and with regards to today's race, those runners are...

  • 26/86 (30.2%) for 45.5pts (+50.6%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 24/63 (38.1%) for 22.2pts (+35.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m3.5f
  • 14/56 (25%) for 29.4pts (+52.5%) after a break of 11 to 30 days
  • and 16/43 (37.2%) for 57.6pts (+133.8%) carrying 11st to 11st4lbs

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dear Sire 11/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 and Hills at 6.05pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2017

Monday's Result :

4.45 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leaders, led before 3 out, headed last, kept on and lost 2nd place close home, beaten by little more than half a length

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Picansort 4/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Crate's A/W handicappers priced at 14/1 and shorter, backed blindly have 21 wins from 116 (18.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.7pts at an ROI of some 36.8%, which is more than decent and in respect of this contest, those runners are...

  • 21/112 (18.75%) for 46.7pts (+41.7%) on Polytrack
  • 15/77 (19.5%) here at Lingfield fpr 37.8pts (+49.1%)
  • 12/74 (16.2%) for 17.6pts (+23.8%) ridden by Shane Kelly
  • 16/65 (24.6%) for 48.8pts (+75.1%) over the 5f minimum trip
  • and 12 from 50 (24%) for 21.9pts (+43.8%) in the February to April period

Peter couldn't be better represented today than by the 10 yr old gelding, Picansort, a 7 times (yes, seven!) course and distance winner, who not only also has an excellent overall A/W record, but does appear to have his favoured conditions here to boot!

In fact, this horse has 10 wins from 58 (17.2% SR) on the A/W, rewarding followers with profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 25%, and under today's conditions, those 58 races have produced the following...

  • 8/50 (16%) for 13.3pts (+26.7%) going left handed
  • 8/48 (16.7%) for 16.6pts (+34.6%) whilst at Peter Crate's yard
  • 8/47 (17%) for 16.3pts (+34.8%) here at Lingfield
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.6pts (+57.5%) with Shane Kelly in the saddle
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 31.4pts (+84.9%) in 5f sprints
  • 7/28 (25%) for 31.3pts (+111.7%) over this Lingfield 5f course and distance
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 14/1pts (+61.1%) when priced at 5/1 and shorter
  • and 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 24.3pts (+127.7%) when wearing blinkers.

And if that's not quite enough to persuade/tempt you, a glance at our racecard for this race shows that he's top of the Speed Ratings and if you back our top-rated blindly in 5f races, you make a profit, as explained better/in more detail here in the Gold Forum.

...and that's why I've placed...a 1pt win bet on Picansort @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

SotD Update, 20th to 25th February 2017

A proverbial game of two halves (to use a footballing cliché) last week with three losers followed by three winners. And with those winners paying out at 3/1, 11/4 and 7/1, it meant that a weekly profit of 9.75pts was achieved, guaranteeing that we'll end February with over 50pts profit banked in 2017!

Selections & Results : 20/02/17 to 25/02/17

20/02 : Theatre Act (adv 5/1 BOG) : 3rd at 7/2
21/02 : My Renaissance (adv 11/4 BOG) : 5th at 7/4
22/02 : Steelriver (adv 4/1 BOG) : 5th at 3/1
23/02 : Amazement (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 5/2
24/02 : Night of Sin (adv 11/4 BOG) : WON at 7/4
25/02 : Sir Note (adv 10/3 BOG) : WON at 7/1

13/02/17 to 18/02/17 :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +9.75pts

February 2017:
9 winners from 20 = 45.00% SR
P/L: +26.25pts
ROI = +131.25%

2017 so far:
19 winners from 46 = 41.30% SR
P/L: +55.75pts
ROI = +121.2%

Overall:
459 winners from 1637 = 28.04% S.R
P/L: +428.48pts
ROI: +26.17%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 13th to 18th February 2017

Two winners and two runners-up from just 5 runners meant that we almost had a fantastic week here at SotD (I say we, because it's not just me doing this!), but with two 3/1 successes, a 3pt profit on the week is still excellent.

The sharper-eyed amongst you will have noticed that I did my usual half-term disappearing trick, taking a couple of days off, covered again by Steve whose two selections were a non-runner and a 3/1 winner, meaning that his last three picks for SotD have all been winners!

Steve is proving to be an excellent addition to the Geegeez team and is a more than capable replacement for me when I'm not here, so please afford him the patience you've had to show me in the past when things haven't been quite as good as they are now!

And now turning towards the last week of the month, were currently 16.5pts up for February, so you "worst case scenario" types (like myself!) can rest assured that we'll be at least 8.5pts in profit by month end, after our winner on the 15th ensured another profitable month. I will, of course, be striving to add at least another couple of winners, but it will be a good month come what may.

Selections & Results : 13/02/17 to 18/02/17

13/02 : Haraka (adv 7/2 BOG) : 4th at 9/4
14/02 : Casual Cavalier (adv 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 11/8
15/02 : Peaceful Passage (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 11/8
16/02 : Spanish Fleet (adv 10/3 BOG) : 2nd at 10/3
17/02 : Twenty Eight Guns (adv 11/4 BOG) : non-runner
18/02 : The Worlds End (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 11/4

Your first 30 days for just £1

13/02/17 to 18/02/17 :
2 winning bets from 5 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +3.00pts

February 2017:
6 winners from 14 = 42.86% SR
P/L: +16.50pts
ROI = +117.86%

2017 so far:
16 winners from 40 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +46.00pts
ROI = +115.00%

Overall:
456 winners from 1631 = 27.96% S.R
P/L: +418.73pts
ROI: +25.67%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 6th to 11th February 2017

When a non-runner was my personal best result of a week reading 54N54, you know it has been a bit of a struggle! I did allude to the fact last week that we may be due a correction period after such a terrific run in December/January, traditionally difficult months for "tipsters".

Thankfully, the non-runner allied to a winner at 3/1 on Monday when Steve thankfully covered for me, meant that despite the poor form, we only lost 1pt on the week, meaning February still looks strong and we still need just one more winner to guarantee profit for the month!

Selections & Results : 06/02/17 to 11/02/17

06/02 : Nimr (adv 2/1 BOG) : WON at 3/1
07/02 : Eastern Dragon (adv 9/4 BOG) : 5th at 3/1
08/02 : Alfie Spinner (adv 4/1 BOG) : 4th at 9/2
09/02 : Babouska (adv 7/2 BOG) : non-runner
10/02 : Vyta du Roc (adv 5/2 BOG) : 5th at 15/8
11/02 : Vieux Lille (adv 10/3 BOG) : 4th at 3/1

06/02/17 to 11/02/17 :
1 winning bet from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts

February 2017:
4 winners from 9 = 44.44% SR
P/L: +13.50pts
ROI = +150.00%

2017 so far:
14 winners from 35 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +43.00pts
ROI = +122.86%

Overall:
454 winners from 1626 = 27.92% S.R
P/L: +415.73pts
ROI: +25.57%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 30th January to 4th February

Another excellent week for the in-form SotD service with a string of results reading 122111 producing 16pts profit from the six picks! In addition to that, Monday's winner was our 450th and Tuesday's runner-up was turned back out again on Friday and won!

All of which means that January became our 7th profitable month in a row, February is off to a flyer and members picking up this service on the 1st December last year would now be 21/53 (39.62% SR) for profits of 62pts (+117% ROI).

Which brings me to an important reminder about managing our expectation levels. Yes, we're absolutely smashing the bookies at the present and I love doing that, but this is a long-term project, as testified by 1621 selections to date.

Even after the superb run since the start of December, our historical strike rate and ROI are 27.95% and 25.71% respectively, so we're not to be surprised/disheartened by a cold spell that may well be on the horizon!

Selections & Results : 30/01/17 to 04/02/17

30/01 : Royal Salute (adv 5/2 BOG) : WON at 9/4
31/01 : Oor Jock (adv 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 2/1
01/02 : Palenville (adv 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
02/02 : What A Diva (adv 100/30 BOG) : WON at 6/1
03/02 : Actinpieces (adv 4/1 BOG) : WON at 5/1
04/02 : Verne Castle (adv 9/2 BOG) : WON at 9/4

30/01/17 to 04/02/17 :
4 winning bets from 6 = 66.66% SR
P/L: +16.00pts

January 2017:
10 winners from 26 = 38.46% SR
P/L: +29.50pts
ROI = +113.46%

February 2017:
3 winners from 4 = 75.00% SR
P/L: +14.50pts
ROI = +362.50%

2017 so far:
13 winners from 30 = 43.33% SR
P/L: +44.00pts
ROI = +146.66%

Overall:
453 winners from 1621 = 27.95% S.R
P/L: +416.73pts
ROI: +25.71%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 23rd to 28th January 2017

Two winners, a runner-up, a last placed runner and two fallers certainly made for a mixed week for followers of SotD.

But with winners at 13/2 and 9/2, the good news was that we made another 7pts profit on the week, we broke the 400pts profit barrier and that our next winner will be a landmark 450th for the service that was never intended to be a tipping feature!

Selections & Results : 23/01/17 to 28/01/17

23/01 : Only A Tipple (adv 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 9/2
24/01 : Robbing The Prey (adv 7/2 BOG) : fell at 7/2
25/01 : Herons Heir (adv 4/1 BOG) : WON at 13/2
26/01 : Western Presence (adv 11/4 BOG) : 7th at 3/1
27/01 : Rich Again (adv 9/2 BOG) : WON at 11/4
28/01 : Kayfleur (adv 5/2 BOG) : fell at 2/1

23/01/17 to 28/01/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +7.00pts

January 2017:
9 winners from 24 = 37.50% SR
P/L: +28.00pts
ROI = +116.66%

Overall:
449 winners from 1615 = 27.80% S.R
P/L: +400.73pts
ROI: +24.81%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.