Posts

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Lingfield : Scentasia @ 4/1 WON at 11/8 (Keen, tracked leader 2f, soon steadied back and close up, headway 2f out, soon led, pushed out and won readily by 1.75 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Heavy ground worth £3,119 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this later, as usual...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Betway respectively at 5.15pm on Sunday, whilst Hills were matching the lower offer, but don't/won't go BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Lingfield : Scentasia @ 4/1 WON at 11/8 (Keen, tracked leader 2f, soon steadied back and close up, headway 2f out, soon led, pushed out and won readily by 1.75 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Heavy ground worth £3,119 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this later, as usual...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Betway respectively at 5.15pm on Sunday, whilst Hills were matching the lower offer, but don't/won't go BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.45 Southwell : Oriental Cross @ 6/1 (4.8/1 after a 20p R4!) WON at 9/2 (Tracked leaders on outside, led going well approaching 2 out, went clear before last, won easily by 7 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now

...in the 14-runner, British Stallion Studs EBF Gillies Fillies Stakes Listed Race for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £21,266 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last 5 starts including landing a Listed contest on this very track last time out, 16 days ago. That was her first run at this level, so she will hope to maintain that 100% record. She's 1 from 2 at this venue, 3 from 6 for trainer John Gosden and also 3 from 6 when rested for 2 to 6 weeks.

She'll be ridden by Frankie Dettori, who just has a fantastic record in Listed races, winning 50 of 191 (26.2% SR) for 69.7pts (+36.5% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. Trust me, guys, those are astounding numbers, but we can make them look better, surely?

Of course we can. Amongst that 50/191 record and of relevance today there are...

  • 37/112 (33%) for 84.3pts (+75.3%) after 16 to 120 days off track
  • 29/105 (27.6%) for 14.4pts (+13.7%) for trainer John Gosden
  • 29/81 (35.8%) for 26.5pts (+32.7%) on LTO winners
  • 26/91 (28.6%) for 64.9pts (+71.4%) on female runners
  • and 23/78 (29.5%) for 48.9pts (62.7%) in female only races...

...whilst on John Gosden's females who won LTO 16-120 days earlier, Frankie is 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 15.6pts (+91.8% ROI).

And whilst Frankie's clearly the man for the job, trainer John Gosden is no slouch around these parts either, his horses have won 28 of 80 (35% SR) for 36.7pts (+45.9% ROI) on the Polytrack here at Lingfield since the start of 2018, including...

  • 24/66 (36.4%) for 40.1pts (+60.8%) in non-handicaps
  • 22/65 (33.9%) for 38.9pts (+59.8%) from October to April
  • 22/53 (41.5%) for 43.2pts (+81.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 34.8pts (+108.8%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 10.1pts (+77.3%) at Class 1
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 11.78pts (+117.8%) in Listed contests...

...whilst Mr G's 3 yr old non-handicappers are 12 from 32 (37.5% SR) for 40.8pts (+127.4% ROI) during October to April, giving us 112% of the original profit from just 40% of the bets!

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Scentasia @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday or 7/2 BOG now as was available from Hills (4/1) & generally at 7/2 at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

12.30 Sedgefield : Christmas in USA @ 9/2 WON at 9/4 (Raced keenly, led before 2nd, not fluent next, went clear before 4 out until next, went clear again before last, winning readily by 8 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 6-runner (was 9!), Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2mf on Soft ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is one from two at today's trip and is trained by Tim Vaughan, who has been profitable to follow blindly here at Southwell over recent years. In fact since the start of 2015, his runners are 13 from 95 (13.7% SR) here, generating 7.6pts profit at an ROI of 8%, which is decent enough without filtering out any you wouldn't normally fancy.

If you did start to filter (as I always do!), you could consider the following ten angles, which are all logical, profitable, relevant and applicable today...

  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 26.4pts (+41.3%) in handicaps (and you could stop here if you wanted!)
  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 34.7pts (+89%) at ISP odds of 7/4 to 8/1
  • 9/60 (15%) for 16.3pts (+27.2%) from 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/56 (16.1%) for 19.8pts (+35.4%) over hurdles
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 16.8pts (+39.2%) at Class 4
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 30.2pts (+79.5%) in handicap hurdle contests
  • 8/32 (25%) for 37.6pts (+117.5%) after 22-56 days off track
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 24.1pts (+89.3%) over this 2mf course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 29.5pts (+196.7%) in 6-runner races
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.9pts (+143.3%) with 1 previous distance win...

...whilst Class 3/4 hcp hurdlers at 7/4 to 8/1 are 4/8 (50% SR) for 25.43pts (+317.9% ROI), including two from three over this 2mf course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Oriental Cross @ 6/1 non-BOG until raceday as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.05 Ayr : Calivigny @ 4/1 WON at 2/1 (Pressed leader, led 4th, pushed clear 2 out, hit last, but won easily by 12 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Christmas in USA @ 9/2 non-BOG until raceday 

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Soft ground worth £3,119 to the winner... 

Why?...

Here we have a 7yr old gelding who entirely coincidentally is trained by yesterday's trainer, Nick Alexander. Like yesterday's pick, this one will need to improve upon his seasonal reappearance if he is to repeat Calivigny's success, as he was well beaten 19 days ago on his return from a 7-month absence, just like Calivigny.

Our boy now drops back in class to Class 5, where he ended last season with finishes of 112 with those wins being his only two career successes. He has previously won on Soft ground and both of the wins were at 2m-2m1f at odds shorter than 5/1 in 8-11 runner Class 5 handicap hurdle contests wearing both a visor and a tongue tie. When all of those winning conditions have been in place for him, he has finished 211, so a return to form wouldn't be too unexpected.

And now back to our trainer, Nick Alexander. Different race conditions to yesterday, so a different set of stats after a reminder that he is a man in form.

Four winners and three placers from sixteen this month so far including a 3 from 7 record over hurdles, where more generally/longer-term he has enjoyed success, especially over trips of 2m-3m2f at odds ranging from 6/5 to 10/1, where his runners are 47/228 (20.6% SR) for 54.7pts (+24% ROI) since the start of 2015, including...

  • 40/189 (21.2%) for 56.5pts (+29.9%) with 4-9 yr olds
  • 37/187 (19.8%) for 48.3pts (+25.8%) in handicaps
  • 29/112 (25.9%) for 50.2pts (+44.8%) in 6-9 runner contests
  • 27/133 (20.3%) for 41.2pts (+31%) were unplaced LTO
  • 22/92 (23.9%) for 49.7pts (+54.1%) after a break of 6-25 days
  • 18/62 (29%) for 23.3pts (+37.5%) over trips of 2m-2m2f
  • 16/57 (28.1%) for 48.54pts (+85.2%) in November/December
  • 14/67 (20.9%) for 17.5pts (+26.1%) at Class 5
  • 12/40 (30%) for 17.1pts (+42.7%) with those top-rated (OR) in the race
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 8pts (+16.3%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/37 (27%) for 16.7pts (+45.2%) on their 2nd run of the season
  • 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.2pts (+61.8%) in November
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 4.3pts (+430%) using today's jockey, Bruce Lynn

...whilst 4-9 yr olds in 6-9 runner hcp hurdles after 6-25 days rest are 11 from 29 (37.9% SR) for 28.7pts (+98.9% ROI) including 3 from 4 (75%) for 5.41pts (+135.3%) over 2m to 2m1f...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Christmas in USA @ 9/2 non-BOG until raceday  as was available from Hills at 4.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (In touch in 4th place, pushed along before 2 out, in 4th and well held before last, left 2nd after last, no chance with winner)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday 

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,133 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old gelding has two wins and three places from seven efforts last season, kicking off with a third place finish returning from 6 months off the track and then following up with a win 20 days later. His seasonal reappearance this term was 18 days ago and once again he finished third after 183 days off the track, so the precedent is there.

With today's race in mind, his overall record includes...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins, 4 places from 12 in a visor
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 12 over hurdles
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Ayr
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 over hurdles here at Ayr
  • 1 win, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 in handicap hurdles

His trainer Nick (NW) Alexander looks to have his horses coming into a nice vein of form with 3 winners and 2 placers from 12 already this month, including 3 winners and a placer from 10 in Scotland, where his hurdlers seem to go well if the market likes them.

Since the start of 2015, Nick's hurdlers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 9/2 have won 22 of 48 (45.8% SR) at an A/E of 1.99 (ie almost twice as many winners as expected) generating level stakes profits of 59.35pts at an ROI of some 123.6%, including...

  • 19/43 (44.2%) for 54.23pts (+126.1%) from males
  • 18/29 (62.1%) for 59.19pts (+204.1%) during the 6 months from Sept-Feb
  • 13/22 (59.1%) for 41.1pts (+186.8%) at Class 4
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 19.82pts (+132.1%) on heavy ground
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 13.27pts (+78.1%) here at Ayr
  • and 5/7 (71.4%) for 20.93pts (+299%) from 10/11 yr olds

...whilst males running in Class 4 hurdles at 2/1 to 9/2 during September to February are 9 from 10 (90% SR) at an A/E of 3.95 for 35.3pts (+353% ROI), including a perfect 5/5 (100% SR & A/E of 4.2) and 19.08pts (+381.6% ROI) on heavy ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday  as was available from Hills at 4.55pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Kempton : The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG PU at 13/8 (Led until hit 2nd and headed, mistake and lost 2nd 10th, mistake and behind, next, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,913 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding makes a seasonal reappearance today after almost seven months off track. He won twice last season and rounded off that campaign with a pair of placed finishes. He has made the frame on his only previous heavy ground run, he stays all day if needed (has won at 2m5f and at 3m1.5f!) and a quick look at his profile shows he has 2 wins and a place from four efforts going left handed in cheekpieces, as will be the case today.

His trainer, Lucy Wadham, doesn't send many runners here  : just 55 in 16 years to be precise but an overall 20% strike rate suggests that it's not a lack of success keeping here and her string away from Lingfield.

In fact, she's 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 116pts (+644.5% ROI) here since the start of 2015 and whilst there's a 14/1 winner that strangely paid out at 81.5 at Betfair SP skewing the P/L & ROI figures, the strike rates stand up for themselves, as they do in the following filters that are all relevant today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 118pts (+737.5%) from November to February
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 111pts (+853.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+702.1%) with Leighton Aspell in the saddle
  • 4/10 (40%) for 88.84pts (+888.4%) over hurdles
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 117.62 (+1960.3%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/5 (80%) for 24.34pts (+486.8%) in 9-runner contests
  • 3/10 (30%) for 35.69pts (+256.9%) in handicaps
  • 2/8 (25%) for 2.4pts (+30%) on heavy ground
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 28.2pts (402.4%) at Class 3
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 81.98pts (+1366.3%) from those rested for 6 months or longer
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 80.87pts (+1617.3%) over this course and distance

I accept that these are fairly small sample sizes, but I'm not a believer in coincidence and I think there's enough numerical evidence...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, who were the only one showing a price at 4.55pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Wincanton : Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Bit keen chasing leaders on inside, went 2nd 5th, not fluent next, lost 2nd after 3 out, weakening when mistake next)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG 

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

The horse...is an 8 yr old mare who has finished 33112 in her last five runs, so she's clearly in good nick and these include winning both her starts over fences this year. These were over today's 2m5f trip and also over 2m7f, so she shouldn't be found wanting for stamina either. Overall, she has 2 wins and a place from three efforts at today's trip.

Our trainer...is Harry Whittington, whose horses claimed 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts last week, whilst his chasers are 31 from 141 (22% SR) for 6.91pts (+4.9% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. As you know, I don't follow anyone blindly and always seek to improve the percentages whilst reducing the number of bets placed. Any filters imposed must be logical, of course, and with today's contest in mind, Harry's chasers are...

  • 31/118 (26.3%) for 29.91pts (+25.3%) in fields of 4-12 runners
  • 26/69 (37.7%) for 24.46pts (+35.5%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 24/82 (29.3%) for 22.85pts (+27.9%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.48pts (+70.2%) in November/December
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 5.00pts (+12.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 15.08pts (+62.9%) in November
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 22.01pts (+115.9%) after less than three weeks rest
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 4.08pts (+136%) here at Kempton

And our jockey...Richard Johnson may never have actually ridden one of Harry's chasers before, but the pair are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 8.73pts (+145.5% ROI) over hurdles, including 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Richard's own record here at Kempton is good and shows 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 7.82pts (+20% ROI) in handicap chases since the start of 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 12.82pts (+37.7%) over trips of 2m2f and beyond
  • 8/32 (25%) for 14.82pts (+46.3%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 17.82pts (+61.4%) at Class 2/3
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 11.11pts (+35.9%) on horses aged 7 or older
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 14.37pts (+68.4%) when sent off shorter than 6/1

...whilst on horses like The King's Baby who tick all five above boxes ie aged 7+ at sub-6/1 odds in 5-10 runner, Class 2/3 handicap chases over 2m2f and beyond, Richard Johnson is 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 20.66pts (+206.6% ROI) with two of the four losers claiming runner-up finishes...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Wincanton : Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Bit keen chasing leaders on inside, went 2nd 5th, not fluent next, lost 2nd after 3 out, weakening when mistake next)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG 

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

The horse...is an 8 yr old mare who has finished 33112 in her last five runs, so she's clearly in good nick and these include winning both her starts over fences this year. These were over today's 2m5f trip and also over 2m7f, so she shouldn't be found wanting for stamina either. Overall, she has 2 wins and a place from three efforts at today's trip.

Our trainer...is Harry Whittington, whose horses claimed 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts last week, whilst his chasers are 31 from 141 (22% SR) for 6.91pts (+4.9% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. As you know, I don't follow anyone blindly and always seek to improve the percentages whilst reducing the number of bets placed. Any filters imposed must be logical, of course, and with today's contest in mind, Harry's chasers are...

  • 31/118 (26.3%) for 29.91pts (+25.3%) in fields of 4-12 runners
  • 26/69 (37.7%) for 24.46pts (+35.5%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 24/82 (29.3%) for 22.85pts (+27.9%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.48pts (+70.2%) in November/December
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 5.00pts (+12.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 15.08pts (+62.9%) in November
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 22.01pts (+115.9%) after less than three weeks rest
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 4.08pts (+136%) here at Kempton

And our jockey...Richard Johnson may never have actually ridden one of Harry's chasers before, but the pair are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 8.73pts (+145.5% ROI) over hurdles, including 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Richard's own record here at Kempton is good and shows 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 7.82pts (+20% ROI) in handicap chases since the start of 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 12.82pts (+37.7%) over trips of 2m2f and beyond
  • 8/32 (25%) for 14.82pts (+46.3%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 17.82pts (+61.4%) at Class 2/3
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 11.11pts (+35.9%) on horses aged 7 or older
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 14.37pts (+68.4%) when sent off shorter than 6/1

...whilst on horses like The King's Baby who tick all five above boxes ie aged 7+ at sub-6/1 odds in 5-10 runner, Class 2/3 handicap chases over 2m2f and beyond, Richard Johnson is 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 20.66pts (+206.6% ROI) with two of the four losers claiming runner-up finishes...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.40 Fontwell : Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 12/1 (Chased leaders, hampered over 1f out, not clear run an switched right inside final furlong, kept on, took 2nd post)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 

...in an 15-runner, Class 2, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Good ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6yr old mare makes a handicap debut on her seasonal reappearance after running very well in much better races than this last season. Her hurdling record currently reads 12221 with the three defeats coming without disgrace in Class 1 contests (2 @ Listed and 1 @ Gr2) and with today's contest in mind, it's worth knowing that she has achieved the following so far...

  • 2 wins and a place from 4 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 as favourite
  • 2 wins from 2 at 2m5.5f/2m6f
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under jockey Harry Cobden
  • 1 from 1 here at Wincanton
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance.

The afore-mentioned Harry Cobden is almost metronomic when it comes to his winning ratio, which never seems to move from a very healthy 22 to 23%, as typified by his 6 winners and 11 other placers from 26 rides over the last fortnight including 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 11pts (+84.8% ROI) on sub-7/1 hurdlers.

More long-term, Harry is 55/185 (29.7% SR) for 58.9pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Wincanton, which as a blind unfiltered stat is excellent and worth noting, but if you wanted some logical filters then from those 185 rides, he is...

  • 33/97 (34%) for 61.4pts (+63.3%) over hurdles
  • 28/112 (25%) for 64.8pts (+57.8%) in handicaps
  • and 10/51 (19.6%) for 51pts (+100%) in handicap hurdles, including 6 from 21 (38.1%) for 10.83pts (+51.6%) on horses trained by Paul Nicholls...

...whose runners are 6 from 23 over the last week including 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.92pts (+74.4%) over hurdles, whilst since the start of 2016, his record here at Wincanton is impressive at 83 from 230 (36.1% SR) backed blindly producing 35.3pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, including...

  • 44/127 (34.7%) for 32.7pts (+25.7%) over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m1f
  • 16/35 (45.7%) for 23.2pts (+66.4%) in November
  • and 11/23 (47.8%) for 22.8pts (+99.3%) over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m1f in November.

And as today is our girl's first effort in handicap company, it's worth knowing that Mr Nicholls' handicap debutants are 39/184 (21.2% SR) for 78.6pts (+43% ROI) over the last six years and these are excellent numbers and include of relevance today...

  • 33/146 (22.6%) for 99.5pts (+68.6%) from November to April
  • 33/145 (22.8%) for 99.3pts (+68.9%) over hurdles
  • 14/54 (25.9%) for 34.4pts (+64.9%) with 6 yr olds
  • 13/46 (28.3%) for 41.9pts (+93.2%) from LTO winners
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.3pts (+43.5%) here at Wincanton
  • 8/25 (32%) for 34.3pts (+137.2%) over 2m5f/2m5.5f
  • and 7/35 (20%) for 16.6pts (+48.8%) with Harry Cobden in the saddle

My own saved composite angle based around the above tells me that 4 to 6 yr olds have won 30 of 119 (25.2% SR) for 115.3pts (+97.7% ROI) over hurdles in the half-year from November 1st and if you wanted to drill further down into these 119 runners, you'd get...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 48.5pts (+173.3%) with LTO winners
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 17pts (+77.1%) here at Wincanton
  • 6/15 (40%) for 36.7 (+244.4%) over 2m5f/2m5.5f
  • and 5/21 (23.8%) for 26.3pts (+131.5%) for Harry Cobden...

...all of which should be enough to justify...a 1pt win bet on Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.40 Southwell : Groupie @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, hampered over 1f out, not clear run an switched right inside final furlong, kept on, took 2nd post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Fontwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG 

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Soft ground worth £2989 to the winner...

Why?...

Our boy might well be 11yrs old now, but shows no sign of slowing down just yet, having won over 3m1f at Wincanton 3 weeks ago, before losing little in defeat here over course and distance on similarly soft ground 6 days later, going down by just three quarters of a length.

He's by Fruits of Love, whose chasers are 33 from 192 (17.2% SR) for 161.1pts (+83.9% ROI) since the start of 2017, all of which are male runners and include...

  • 30/171 (17.5%) for 168.9pts (+98.8%) from 7-11 yr olds
  • 28/136 (20.6%) for 183.6pts (+135%) after a break of 6-60 days
  • 27/143 (18.9%) for 109.1pts (+76.3%) in handicaps
  • 25/88 (28.4%) for 67.4pts (+76.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 17/90 (18.9%) for 178.3pts (+198.1%) during September to January
  • and 7/42 (16.7%) for 71.3pts (+169.8%) on Soft ground...

...whilst Fruits of Love's 7 to 11 yr old handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 8/1 after a break of 6 to 60 days are 18/59 (30.5% SR) for 50.9pts (+86.2% ROI) since the start of 2017 : a micro worth bookmarking possibly?

He is trained by Johnny Farrelly who has done well at this sort of trip in recent years with horses deemed to at least have "a chance".

More specifically, I'm talking about runners racing over 3 to 3.5 miles sent off at 10/1 and shorter, because they are 33/132 (25% SR) for 43.9pts (+33.3% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these represent significant improvements on Mr Farrelly's overall form (11.2% SR & a 21.4% loss of stakes from blind backing) during that period.

And of that 33/132 dataset that interests me today...

  • 25/94 (26.6%) for 44.1pts (+46.9%) from male runners
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 37.3pts (+63.3%) at Class 5
  • 13/43 (38.2%) for 28.2pts (+83%) from Class 5 males
  • 6/12 (50%) for 12pts (+100%) in November
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.2pts (+74.5%) at Fontwell
  • 3/3 (100%) for 9.73pts (+324.3%) from Class 5 males in November
  • 2/4 (50%) for 5.12pts (+128%) from Class 5 males at Fontwell

...whilst Class 5 males at Fontwell in November are 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 7.12pts (+356% ROI), including Love The Leader's win here at this vey meeting a year ago...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.10 Kempton : Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, closer on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run to lead well inside final furlong, soon clear to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, after a long awaited return to form, I was hoping for some nice data-laden selection to sweep us towards a third successive winner, but there were very few horses ticking the stats/price/likelihood of winning axis I use to finalise a pick, so here we've one I expect to go well which is priced attractively, but doesn't have the big blockbuster standout stat.

Two out of three isn't a disaster and there are enough statistical snippets/nuggets to back up the choice, starting with...

...trainer Tom Tate has sent just four runners to this venue this year, but with two winners and a further placer producing 17.8pts profit at an ROI of 445%, it's worth looking out for the rare visitor. Of those four runs, jockey Andrew Mullen is 1 from 2 and Class 6 runners are also 1 from 2.

Next up is a quick look at the Trainer/Jockey combo, as since the start of 2017, the Tate/Mullen alliance is 13 from 83 (15.7% SR) for 53.5pts (+64.5% ROI), with a 10/36 (27.8% SR) record on the A/W yielding 72.9pts (+202.6%) including 3 winners from 9 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+249%) at Class 6 n the A/W.

And I'll wrap today's piece up by telling you that in 2019 so far, top-rated (OR) runners in non-handicap contests are 18 from 93 (19.4% SR) for 233.8pts (+251.3% ROI) here at Southwell, including of note/relevance today...

  • 15/79 (19%) for 240.7pts (+304.7%) over trips up to a mile
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 199.3pts (+766.5%) from female runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 206.3pts (+1085.8%) from females over 5 to 8 furlongs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 174pts (+1740%) at Class 6
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 175.2pts (+2502.6%) at Class 6 up to a mile
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 178.4pts (+8920%) from Class 6 females over 5f-1m

The above ROI figures are skewed by a 66/1 winner that paid out at 170.00 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't invalidate the strike rates, but if you just considered those of the 93 top-rated runners who were sent off shorter than 5/1, you'd have 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) and 5.91pts (+93.5% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.40 Kempton : Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on close home to win by a head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?...

Clive Cox's 2 yr old colt is 2 from 2 so far ahead of today's handicap/nursery debut and has already won here at Kempton, won at Class 4 and twice under today's jockey Adam Kirby. He was last seen six weeks ago landing a 6f contest as an odds-on favourite on this track and now steps back up to Class 4 and tackles 7f for the first time.

Sent off at 5/6 LTO, 42 days ago, he is flagged up on my odds on LTO winners micro-system, which tells me that such runners racing in All-Weather handicaps, 31-60 days later are 33 from 89 (37.1% SR) for 64.3pts (+72.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and whilst that looks compelling enough to just back them blindly, here are some applicable filters to consider...

  • 28/58 (48.3%) for 51.2pts (+88.4%) at odds of 11/10 to 5/1
  • 23/56 (41.1%) for 70.9pts (+126.5%) on Polytrack
  • 18/43 (41.9%) for 49.9pts (+116%) over trips up to a mile
  • 18/36 (50%) for 38.6pts (+107.3%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 52.1pts (+157.8%) at Class 4
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 42.2pts (+127.8%) upped 1 class
  • 14/23 (54.2%) for 19.3pts (+80.6%) with 1 previous track win
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 43.8pts (+292%) here at Kempton
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.13pts (+62.6%) upped in trip by a furlong
  • 4/5 (80%) for 12.7pts (+254%) with 2 yr olds

...whilst those sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 over trips of 5-11 furlongs on Polytrack are 17 from 27 (63%) for 43.9pts (+162.6%).

Meanwhile, Clive Cox has an excellent record with his handicap debutants in recent years with those sent off at 10/1 or shorter winning 30 of 115 (26.1% SR) for 58.9pts (+51.2% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of note/relevance today...

  • 24/79 (30.4%) for 65.2pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 22/67 (32.8%) for 51.8pts (+77.4%) with male runners
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.6pts (+74.7%) over trips of 7f and beyond
  • 15/29 (51.7%) for 60pts (+206.8%) on the A/W
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 14.5pts (+25%) using jockey Adam Kirby
  • 12/24 (50%) for 39.9pts (+166.3%) on Polytrack
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 25pts (+73.5%) stepping up in class
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+95.6%) with 2 yr olds
  • 4/12 (33.3%)for 9.86pts (+82.2%) here at Kempton

Now you can mix and match the above to your heart's content, but interestingly, males in 6-11 runner A/W contests over 6f and beyond are 7 from 7 (100% SR) for 31pts (+443.4% ROI), including 3/3 for 9pts over 7f, 2/2 for 6.5pts at Kempton and 1/1 for 3.6pts over course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (the first to show their hand) at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Plumpton : Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/10 (Led, headed when not fluent 3 out, soon outpaced, rallied approaching last, kept on well under pressure, but beaten by a length and a half)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in what looks a poor contest on a poor day of racing, I'm going to try and nick a winner with a horse that seems like it is best suited to the conditions it'll face today. A little bit like a football striker on a lean run who just needs any goal to get him going again, I'm not fussy about the ugliness of the selection and reasoning today, but I do expect a win.

So, I've gone with a 4 yr old gelding who was a winner over course and distance last time out and although he's now 4lbs higher for that win, the booking of useful 7lb claimer Mark Crehan more than compensates today.

Our boy has 2 wins and 2 further places from 12 starts so far, mainly on the A/W and I think he's the best suited here, because he has...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 here at Kempton
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 6 over a 1 mile trip
  • 2 wins and 1 place from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 over course and distance
  • 2 wins from 4 in 14-runner races
  • and 2 wins and a 1 place over course and distance at Class 6

I did suggest it wasn't going to be in-depth or pretty, but the above allied to an apparent lack of real recent form amongst his rivals is enough to convince me...

...to place...a 1pt win bet on Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by a handful of firms at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Ayr : Gold Opera @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, reminders after 11th, lost touch next, left modest 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Plumpton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Soft/Heavy ground worth £6238 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding trained by Tom Lacey and I could make this piece very short by saying just back all Tom's hurdlers for a near 20% strike rate and a near 45% return on your money, but I never advocate blind backing, so which of Tom's hurdlers in particular should we be backing?

Personally, I'd stick to those sent off at evens to 8/1 in handicaps, for they are 40 from 134 (29.9% SR) for 81.8ppts (+61.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which there is a myriad of profitable angles you could consider. I've done that digging for you and here are "just" ten such angles/filters, all relevant/applicable today...

  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 78.43pts (+71.3%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 21/54 (38.9%) for 49.96pts (+92.5%) n fields of 7-9 runners
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 57.83pts (+105.1%) after 1 or 2 runs in the previous 90 days
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 46.07pts (+98%) on Soft/Heavy ground
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 6.41pts (+18.9%) with champion jockey Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 10.31pts (+39.6%) at Class 3
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 23.39pts (+137.6%) after 1 run in the previous 90 days
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.53pts (+55.4%) over a 2 mile trip
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.11pts (+264.7%) in November
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.18pts (+143.6%) here at Plumpton

Now I know that many of you like a composite angle you can pop into your Query Tool for future reference, so if that's the case, I'd stick to the first three or four datasets ie how recently have they run, how often have they run recently, how many rivals are they facing and what is the ground like, but open them up slightly to give a more realistic sample size...

...ie those racing in fields of 7 to 9 runners within 60 days of their last run, having had 1-4 runs in the previous 90 days are 24 from 65 (36.9% SR) for 67.66pts (+104.1% ROI), including 7/23 (30.4%) for 25pts (+108.7% ROI) on Soft/Heavy ground...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 4.50pm on Sunday, whilst Bet365 were a third of a point bigger for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!