Posts

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.55 Ayr : Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 10/1 (Mid-division, kept on same pace final 2f)

Next up is Saturday's...

5.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £5913 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8yr old mare has been in tremendous form for a year now, winning six of her nine starts in that time with two runner-up finishes and a third place her worst result in a form line reading 211123111!

This run has culminated in a course and distance success here at Perth in a Class 3 contest 37 days ago and although she's up another 4lbs for that effort, she does take a drop in class today.

Her record over hurdles is excellent and includes the following of note/relevance today...

  • 6 wins and 2 places from 14 over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 5 wins and 2 places from 8 with a tongue tie
  • 4 wins and 2 places from 6 (her last 6) under today's jockey James Corbett
  • 3 wins from 6 after a break of 1 to 2 months
  • 2 wins and a place from her three visits to this track
  • 2 from 2 over 2m/2m0.5f here
  • 1 from 1 (LTO) over this course and distance

She is trained by Susan Corbett, whose own record here at Perth stands at 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) for 55pts (+203.7% ROI) since 2014, including...

  • hurdlers @ 6/23 (26.1%) for 59pts (+256.6%)
  • James Corbett with 5 wins from 20 (25%) for 58.9pts (+294.5%)
  • and handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 47.3pts (+278.2%) : all of which were hurdlers ridden by James Corbett.

In addition to the above, Susan's LTO winners are 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 5.93pts (+20.4% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which...

  • hurdlers are 4/17 (23.5%) for 8.86pts (+52.1%)
  • those running 21-45 days after the LTO win are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.74pts (+108.2%)
  • whilst here at Perth = 2/5 (40%) for 2.44pts (+48.8%)

Now, more generally and over a longer term with a much bigger sample size...in UK handicap hurdles since the start of 2013, horses with the CD logo next to their name who were also LTO winners 16 to 120 days earlier are 109/547 (19.9% SR) for 110.8pts (+20.3% ROI), including...

  • those who won over C&D LTO : 85/392 (21.7%) for 91.9pts (+23.5%)
  • 8 yr olds : 20/84 (23.8%) for 55.1pts (+65.6%)
  • in June : 11/40 (27.5%) for 45pts (+112.5%)
  • 8 yr olds who won over C&D LTO : 13/61 (21.3%) for 23.7pts (+38.9%)
  • LTO C&D winners running in June : 10/27 (37%) for 54pts (+200%)
  • and 8 yr old LTO C&D winners running in June : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.77pts (+168.1%)

And finally, before I wrap this one up, I want to quickly acknowledge this mare's breeding, as her father is Ivan Denisovich and his offspring excel in this type of contest as demonstrated by...

  • 25 wins from 151 (16.6%) for 205.3pts (+135.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m1.5f
  • 20 wins from 151 (13.25%) for 159.5pts (+105.6%) over hurdles
  • and his hurdlers over 2m to 2m1.5f are 17/109 (15.6%) for 183.2pts (+168.1%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 7.35pm on Friday evening with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.40 Ascot : Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Raced keenly, tracked leaders on outside, went 2nd 2f out, ridden and no chance with winner over 1f out, plugged on)

Next up is Friday's...

5.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 6, Amateur Riders Handicap for 4yo+ over 1msf on Good ground worth £3369 to the winner... 

Why?

In a race seemingly full of out-of-form horses, our boy's 5 length success at Haydock LTO 15 days ago stands out like a relatively sore thumb. That was another amateur riders' contest, but at a higher grade than today and the jockey from last time, Emily Easterby, retains the ride seeking her fourth win on this horse.

Emily doesn't get too many opportunities to display her talents, but over the last 2.5 seasons (assuming we're halfway through this one!), she has won 7 of 47 (14.9% SR) Flat handicaps for profits of 13.22pts at a healthy ROI of 28.1%, and of those 47 rides...

  • Class 6 : 4/24 (16.6%) for 6.98pts (+29.1%)
  • in Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/19 (21.1%) for 11.98pts (+63.1%)
  • at 1m2f to 1m4f : 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.17pts (+209%)
  • and in Class 6 Amateur Riders' handicaps : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.98pts (+158.2%)

As for today's trainer, Emily's father, Tim Easterby : he's been in decent touch of late with 25 winners from 139 (18% SR) generating profits of 54.47pts (+39.2% ROI) over the last 30 days, whilst more long term his Class 4 to 6 runners here at Ayr are 24/153 (15.7% SR) for 36pts (+23.5% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • males at 20/111 (18%) for 44.2pts (+39.8%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.18pts (+46.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 7.22pts (+38%)

...and male LTO winners running 11-20 days later are 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 11pts (+157.2% ROI)...

The LTO winner stats are interesting (to me, anyway!), as in 2018 alone Tim's LTO winners are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 12.49pts (+39.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 13.4pts (+63.8%) this Flat season
  • 6/12 (50%) for 19.97pts (166.4%) just 11-20 days after their last run
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.16pts (+74.2%) on good ground
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.96pts (+99.4%) who won by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) f0r 10.08pts (+252%) at Class 6
  • and 1/1 for 8.46pts here at Ayr...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Duke of Yorkshire @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 9.55pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Tropics @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 3/1 (Unruly in stalls, fly leapt start and lost all chance, always in rear)

Next up is Thursday's...

3.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG

A 10-runner, Group 2 Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £113420 to the winner...

Why?

With the obvious caveat about the ground maybe not suiting her (she'd probably be a fair shorter than 11/4 on softer), it's hard for me to look beyond this likeable, classy filly. She's already a Group 1 winner via last season's Prix Marcel Boussac and with two creditable runs in defeat at that level this season, she brings the best form to the table today.

That form was a decent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before finishing as runner-up in the recent Oaks beating two of today's rivals in the process. William Buick is in the saddle and he's in great form right now, including winning twice at this festival already this week : one of which was for trainer Charlie Appleby and it's their relationship that I'm going to look at here.

I'm keeping it simple today, but the Appleby / Buick / Class 1 axis stands at 21 winners from 124 (16.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+12.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016, so they're a fairly safe long-term bet. With respect to today's contest, those 124 runners are...

  • 19/100 (19%) for 31.9pts (+31.9%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 15/70 (21.4%) for 3.6pts (+5.1%) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 (so they win plenty but get overbet)
  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 18.2pts (+28.4%) when tilting for prizes in excess of £40k
  • 10/60 (16.6%) for 12.8pts (+21.3%) when racing 11-30 days since their last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 31.9pts (+63.8%) at the age of 3
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 27.9pts (+96.2%) in June
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 15.4pts (+67.1%) here at Ascot
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.2pts (+107.4%) after running in a Group 1 race last time out.

And to be honest with you, those numbers allied to her form/ability is enough to convince me to part with my usual stake, but I can add another layer of data for reassurance via the fact that her "daddy" is the mighty Dubawi...

..and Dubawi offspring racing at Class 1 on the Flat over this 1m4f trip are 19/86 (22.1% SR) for 28.6pts (+33.3% ROI), from which...

  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 16/58 (27.6%) for 40.9pts (+70.5%)
  • competing for £50k+ : 10/53 (18.9%) for 14.1pts (+26.6%)
  • in June : 6/28 (21.4%) for 11.2pts (+40%)
  • at Ascot : 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.5pts (+85.5%)
  • at Group 2 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.3pts (+151.6%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 5/18 (27.8%) for 20.04pts (+111.3%)
  • and here at Royal Ascot : 2/7 (28.6%) for 17.96pts (+256.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.55 Stratford : I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, not always fluent, headway on outside 9th, driven and every chance before last, stayed on same pace flat and beaten by 5L)

Next up is Wednesday's...

7.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tropics @ 4/1 BOG

An 11-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on polytrack worth £25876 to the winner...

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding is showing no signs of letting his advancing years slow him down, winning 4 of his last 8 starts on Turf/AW, including a comfortable 2 length victory here over course and distance at this grade last time out a week ago.

A 6lb rise in weight is semi-negated by a 3lb jockey claim today (jockey has won with him previously) and based on the manner of his last run/win, a 3lb difference shouldn't be enough to anchor him here.

To date, he has 5 wins and 4 places from 14 starts on the A/W, including the following of note/relevance today...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 11 within 30 days of his last run
  • 4 wins and a place from 10 in a hood
  • 5 wins and a place from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4 from 6 going left handed
  • 3 from 5 as a 10 yr old
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 occasions sent off as a favourite
  • 2 from 2 at 5f
  • 2 from 2 over course and distance
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 in June

...he has also won 3 of 9 runs at Listed class on turf, where he also has a Gr 3 win to his name. He's not the force he used to be when making the frame in a couple of group 1 contests, but remains a decent competitor at this level.

His trainer Dean Ivory has a 22/136 (16.2% SR) record in handicaps at this venue that has rewarded his followers with 23.3pts profit at an ROI of 17.2%, from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 12/1 and shorter are 21/104 (20.2%) for 35.2pts (+33.8%)
  • LTO winners are 6/19 (31.6%) for 2.8pts (+14.6%)
  • those last seen 6-10 days earlier are 4/13 930.8%) for 23.2pts (+178.1%)
  • and over 5f : 3/12 925%) for 2pts (+16.7%)

...whilst more generally since the start of 2013, Dean's horses running at the same class and distance as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 12 from 35 (34.3% SR) for 13.38pts (+38.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • at 9/2 and shorter : 12/28 (42.9%) for 20.38pts (+72.8%)
  • won by a head to 2L LTO : 11/27 (40.7%) for 18.36pts (+68%)
  • on the A/W : 9/26 (34.6%) for 9.23pts (+35.5%)
  • at the same course and distance as LTO : 7/17 (41.2%) for 8.04pts (+47.3%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.46pts (+55.8%)

...and from that data...those priced at 9/2 and shorter on the A/W after a win by a head to 2 lengths LTO are 8 from 18 (44.4% SR) for 14.22pts (+79% ROI) and amongst those 18 runners...

  • those racing at the same course and distance as LTO are 5/11 (45.5%) for 4.9pts (+44.5%)
  • Chelmsford runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.46pts (+78%)
  • those running over the same Chelmsford trip as LTO are 2 from 4 (50%) for 3pts (+75%) profit

...which all points towards...a 1pt win bet on Tropics @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betway, Ladbrokes & SportPesa at 5.30pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.45 Ayr : Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Made all, driven when challenged from over 1f out, held on gamely to win by a shorthead)

We now press on with Tuesday's...

2.55 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

I See You Well @ 5/1 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 4 Flat  Handicap Chase  for 5yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground worth £7018 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar Class 4 handicap chase over just half a furlong shorter 14 days ago on his first crack at a non-novice Handicap Chase. Jockey Daniel Sansom retains the ride from that day and is already 2 from 3 on this horse.

Trainer Seamus Mullins' horses are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 12 from 64 (18.75% SR) for 21.05pts (+32.9% ROI). Both of these details are useful pointers, but this horse became of real interest to me when he was flagged up as a qualifier of one my (many) stored micro-systems, namely...

...2013-18 / UK Class 3-4 Handicap Chases / shorter than 3.5 miles / going contains the word "good" : males who won a Hcp Chase LTO 4-20 days earlier are 216/823 (26.3% SR) for 124pts (+15.1% ROI), including...

  • at odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 158/654 (24.2%) for 157.7pts (+24.1%)
  • 1-2 previous hcp chase wins : 162/545 (29.7%) for 119.4pts (+21.9%)
  • 6-15 days since LTO win : 144/483 (29.8%) for 115.7pts (+23.9%)
  • 1-5 previous hcp chase runs : 109/379 (28.8%) for 55.2pts (+14.6%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 13/47 (27.7%) for 13.8pts (+29.3%)

...from which, those with 1-2 previous hcp chase wins from 1-5 previous hcp chase runs priced at 6/4 to 10/1 running 6 to 15 days after the LTO win are 51/154 (33.1% SR) for 109.6pts (+71.2% ROI) with 2018 showing 4 winners from 7 (57.1%) for 18.9pts (+269.7%) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on I See You Well @ 5/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.40 Leicester : Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Took keen hold, held up tracking leaders on inside, pushed along over 4f out, hung right 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

4.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 10 yr old mare won back to back handicaps in August & September 2016 off marks of 69 and then a career-best 75 before a further 6lb hike after the second win gave her an Official Rating in the 80's. Sadly, she wasn't (and still isn't) an 80+ rated horse and this manifested itself in a string of 16 defeats, mainly off marks of the mid 70's and higher before finally getting back to winning ways last time out at Musselburgh 16 days ago.

In fairness, since dropping down the weights, she has looked revitalised this season, finishing as a runner-up at Carlisle in May when only headed inside the final furlong over 2m1f despite needing a run after a 217 day absence, before dropping back in trip by 3f for that LTO Musselburgh win 12 days later, defying a step up in class to Class 4.

She's admittedly up 2lbs to a mark of 72 (and I'd not want her much higher than this), but she does drop back a furlong and is back down at Class 5, so this mark should still be within her grasp today, especially based on past performances, where she has...

  • 10 wins & 11 places from 46 in handicaps
  • 7 wins & 8 places from 37 going left handed
  • 9 wins & 5 places from 32 in the months of June to August
  • 6 wins & 5 places from 20 runs in Scotland
  • 4 wins & 5 places from 17 at Class 5
  • 7 wins and 2 places from 14 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins & 3 places from 9 runs here at Ayr
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 at 1m5f
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 3 under today's jockey Rachel Richardson.

Now, it's fair to say that trainer Donald Whillans hasn't really got the best out of her just yet, but I don't believe that's anything he's done wrong himself. Most of this mare's defeats have been down to her running in contests she was simply carrying too much weight to win. It should be noted that three other trainers have also failed to get her to win off a mark higher than 75 in the past.

That said, this mare loves it here at Ayr as shown above and Donald's own record here isn't too shabby either with 10 winners from 50 (20% SR) since the start of the 2012 campaign yielding 187pts profit at a tremendous ROI of 374% with his handicappers winning 9 of 38 923.7%) for 167.6pts (+441.1%) including...

  • 8 from 30 (26.7%) for 31.5pts (+105%) after a break of 16-75 days
  • 8 from 20 (40%) for 41.5pts (+207.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 22pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 3 from 13 (23.1%) for 13.4pts (+103%) at Class 5...

...whilst those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 competing for less than £4k after a break of 16 to 75 days are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 31pts (+281.8% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 19.4pts (+277%)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOGwhich was on offer from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.40 Leicester : Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Took keen hold, held up tracking leaders on inside, pushed along over 4f out, hung right 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

4.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 10 yr old mare won back to back handicaps in August & September 2016 off marks of 69 and then a career-best 75 before a further 6lb hike after the second win gave her an Official Rating in the 80's. Sadly, she wasn't (and still isn't) an 80+ rated horse and this manifested itself in a string of 16 defeats, mainly off marks of the mid 70's and higher before finally getting back to winning ways last time out at Musselburgh 16 days ago.

In fairness, since dropping down the weights, she has looked revitalised this season, finishing as a runner-up at Carlisle in May when only headed inside the final furlong over 2m1f despite needing a run after a 217 day absence, before dropping back in trip by 3f for that LTO Musselburgh win 12 days later, defying a step up in class to Class 4.

She's admittedly up 2lbs to a mark of 72 (and I'd not want her much higher than this), but she does drop back a furlong and is back down at Class 5, so this mark should still be within her grasp today, especially based on past performances, where she has...

  • 10 wins & 11 places from 46 in handicaps
  • 7 wins & 8 places from 37 going left handed
  • 9 wins & 5 places from 32 in the months of June to August
  • 6 wins & 5 places from 20 runs in Scotland
  • 4 wins & 5 places from 17 at Class 5
  • 7 wins and 2 places from 14 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins & 3 places from 9 runs here at Ayr
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 at 1m5f
  • 3 wins & 1 place from 5 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 3 under today's jockey Rachel Richardson.

Now, it's fair to say that trainer Donald Whillans hasn't really got the best out of her just yet, but I don't believe that's anything he's done wrong himself. Most of this mare's defeats have been down to her running in contests she was simply carrying too much weight to win. It should be noted that three other trainers have also failed to get her to win off a mark higher than 75 in the past.

That said, this mare loves it here at Ayr as shown above and Donald's own record here isn't too shabby either with 10 winners from 50 (20% SR) since the start of the 2012 campaign yielding 187pts profit at a tremendous ROI of 374% with his handicappers winning 9 of 38 923.7%) for 167.6pts (+441.1%) including...

  • 8 from 30 (26.7%) for 31.5pts (+105%) after a break of 16-75 days
  • 8 from 20 (40%) for 41.5pts (+207.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 5 from 20 (25%) for 22pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 3 from 13 (23.1%) for 13.4pts (+103%) at Class 5...

...whilst those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 competing for less than £4k after a break of 16 to 75 days are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 31pts (+281.8% ROI) with Class 5 runners winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 19.4pts (+277%)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Wor Lass @ 7/2 BOGwhich was on offer from Bet365, BetVictor & SunBets at 6.30pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

7.55 Aintree : Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (Disputed lead, led before 4th, headed 5 out, lost place after 3 out, weakened before last)

We continue with Saturday's...

8.40 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding struggled over the longer flat distances before a decision was made to drop him back to a mile and a half nine months ago.

That switch seems to have put some fire in our lad's belly as his record over that period now stands at 6 wins and a runner-up finish (beaten by just a neck) from seven runs, all over 12/12.5 furlongs.

His last outing was 39 days ago when he won by four lengths over today's trip in this grade under today's jockey Darragh Keenan who 2 from 2 on him.

His trainer Alan Bailey seems to have the knack of getting his horses to win at this type of trip with 22 winners from 129 (17.1% SR) over trips of 11.5 to 12.5 furlongs generating profits of 58.6pts (+45.4% ROI) since the start of 2011.

And with today's contest firmly in mind, those 129 runners are...

  • 21/119 (17.7%) for 50.6pts (+42.5%) in handicaps
  • 18/82 (22%) for 85.2pts (+103.9%) 11 to 45 days after their last run
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 58.1pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 11/38 (28.9%) for 56pts (+147.5%) as 5/6 yr olds
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 52.5pts (+138%) at Class 5
  • 6/25 (24%) for 40.75pts (+163%) on good to firm ground
  • and 6 /19 (31.6%) for 20.4pts (+107.5%) as LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat is particularly relevant here, as since the start of 2014, Alan Bailey's KTO winners are 16 from 72 (22.2% SR) for 54.3pts (+75.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • males are 12/48 (25%) for 57.5pts (+119.8%)
  • at 11 to 45 days since their last run : 12/40 (30%) for 59.75pts (+149.4%)
  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 25.3pts (+90.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 18pts (+94.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 26.9pts (+158.5%)
  • and over 12/12.5 furlongs : 5/8 (62.5%) for 20.3pts (+254.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOGwhich was widely available at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.10 Yarmouth : Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

We continue with Friday's...

7.55 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £7507 to the winner... 

Why?

We have a 9 yr old gelding who won a Class 3 handicap chase up at Perth last time out (12 days ago), when making all en route to a 13 lengths success under today's jockey and regular rider Harry Reed. This took his chasing record to 5 wins and 6 places from 20 attempts, a decent record that includes...

  • 5 wins, 6 places from 16 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for trainer Tim Reed
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 15 for jockey Harry Reed
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 10 at Class 3
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 on Good ground
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 carrying 11st 13lbs
  • 2 from 2 in June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 wearing cheekpieces...

...and Tim / Harry Reed + Class 3 + Good ground + 6-9 runners = 3/3 (100% SR) for 22.5pts (+750% ROI), including 2/2 in June, 1/1 carrying 11-12 and 1/1 in cheekpieces.

More generally, since the start of 2013 in UK Class 3 handicap chases at trips shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word "Good" in the official description, male runners who won a handicap chase last time out 6 to 20 days earlier are 78 from 334 (23.4% SR) for 71.4pts (+21.4% ROI) from which the following are relevant today...

  • those who won by more than 2 lengths LTO are 57/215 (26.5%) for 74.4pts (+34.6%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 6/1 won 52 of 198 (26.3%) for 51.6pts (+26.1%)
  • those racing on Good ground are 45/188 (23.9%) for 24.1pts (+12.8%)
  • those who are running at the same class as LTO are 33/148 (22.3%) for 31.4pts (+21.2%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f/2m : 13/38 (34.2%) for 27.8pts (+73.2%)
  • and this year alone : 6/18 (33.3%) for 6.64pts (+36.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOGwhich was widely available from Betbright, Betfair, Coral, Paddy Power & 10Bet at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.20 Chelmsford : Danzay @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, one pace when switched outside over 1f out, soon ridden, went 3rd and kept on inside final furlong, not pace to trouble front pair)

We continue with Thursday's...

4.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4 handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding is making just his 7th start today and just his third at this trip, having won on his first attempt before finishing as a runner-up LTO 12 days ago. He was headed late on in the piece on soft ground it is hoped/expected that quicker conditions here will help, as should the change of jockey, which is interesting.

The actual placing of this horse into this contest and the associated conditions drew me to the selection rather than his won past form and it all centres around the trainer John Gosden and his shy retiring jockey, a certain Mr Dettori. Let me explain more in numbers!

...over the last 30 days...

  • Mr Gosden is 25 from 83 (30.1% SR)
  • Mr Dettori is 9 from 34 (26.5%)
  • and together they are 6/15 (40%)

...the last fortnight...

  • trainer = 8/29 (27.6%)
  • jockey = 5/13 (38.5%)
  • together = 3/3 9100%)

and the last week?

  • trainer is 5/15 (33.3%)
  • jockey is 3/8 (37.5%)
  • together : 2/2 (100%)

Now, there are probably very few surprises there, but they do suggest that although both are in great form, they're better as a partnership.

Which now brings me to this horse in this race. John Gosden has three runners today, but only one here at Yarmouth, whilst Frankie makes the admittedly relatively short journey to the seaside for just this one ride : he has nothing else anywhere today. I might be overplaying that angle, but  who knows? After all it's only a Class 4 handicap worth less than £6k!

Yarmouth has been very good for Mr Gosden over the years and since the start of the 2015 campaign, his runners are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 31.7pts profit (+73.7 ROI), from which...

  • on good to firm : 14/29 (48.3%) for 38.2pts (+111.5%)
  • males : 11/26 (42.3%) for 16.2pts (+62.2%)
  • 3 yr olds : 10/21 (47.6%) for 32.3pts (+153.8%)
  • Class 4 : 6/21 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+12.4%)
  • at 7/2 and shorter : 12/19 (63.2%) for 14.9pts (+78.4%)
  • over the 1m C&D : 6/19 (31.6%) for 12pts (+63%)
  • in handicaps : 5/12 (41.7%) for 30.5pts (+254.5%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 7/10 (70%) for 7.93pts (+79.3%)
  • John's only runner at the track that day : 4/10 (40%) for 12pts (+120%)
  • Frankie's only ride at the track that day : 3/3 9100%) for 2.48pts (+82.7%)
  • and John's only runner at the track & ridden by Frankie = 1/1 (100%) for 0.48pts (+48%)

And this simple stripped back approach is enough to satisfy me today...

...and reinforces the placing of...a 1pt win bet on Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday evening, although Ladbrokes were slightly better at 10/3  BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

7.50 Lingfield : Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (In rear, headway 2f out, not clear run [poorly positioned IMO] and switched right over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ridden and ran on, couldn't reach winner, beaten by a head)

We continue with Wednesday's...

3.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danzay @ 3/1 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5 handicap for 3yo over 1m on polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

here we have a 3 yr old gelding who was a winner over 1m2f at Goodwood just five days ago when making all. The truth however is that he was hanging on for the last 2f and the line couldn't come quick enough for him. The good news here is that (a) a drop back to a mile should therefore help him see this one out better, (b) he's unpenalised for that win, as it was an apprentice handicap and (b) the wily Franny Norton now takes over in the saddle : an excellent judge of race pace.

And although his trainer Mark Johnston has a 15.8% strike rate at this venue (47/298), he's not profitable to follow blindly, however...

...if you backed all his 2 to 4 yr olds here sent off at 7/2 & shorter, you'd have 33 winners from 89 (37.1% SR) and 15.2pts (+17.1% ROI) profit, from which...

  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 21/52 (40.4%) for 15.2pts (+29.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 13/30 (43.3%) for 11.2pts (+37.2%)
  • and at Class 5 over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 11/19 (57.9%) for 15.9pts (+83.8%)

More generally, since the start of 2013 at trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs on UK polytracks, horses who won or were beaten by less than lengths LTO and were turned back out just 2 to 5 days later, went on to win 141 of 562 (25.1% SR) quick follow-ups recording profits of 172.9pts at a healthy ROI of 30.8%. These are not trainer specific, just blindly backing quick returners who weren't well beaten LTO.

And finally, seeing as this one did win so recently, it's worth noting that Mark Johnston's Class 5 handicappers who won last time out are 35/95 (36.8% SR) for 26.3pts (+27.7% ROI) profit and these include of relevance today...

  • 27 winners from 69 (39.1%) for 23.8pts (+34.5%) for those last seen 4-25 days earlier
  • 31 from 64 (48.4%) for 21.8pts (+34%0 at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 24 from 55 (43.6%) for 32.7pts (+59.4%) from those running at the same class as LTO
  • 17 from 35 (48.6%) for 23.4pts (+66.8%) in the June-August quarter
  • and 9 from 24 (37.5%) for 3.93pts (+16.4%) on polytrack

...and derived from the above, you could back those priced at 6/1 and shorter at the same class as an LTO win 4-25 days earlier for 20 winners from 38 (52.6% SR) and 23,2pts profit at an ROI of 60.9%...

...which would prompt...a 1pt win bet on Danzay @ 3/1 BOGGENERALLY. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Brighton : Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/3 (Never really got going/involved, raced wide and was beaten by 2.5 lengths)

We continue with Tuesday's...

7.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 5 fillies handicap for 4yo+over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

Well, we've got a 4yr old filly here who I like for this contest for a number of reasons, so instead of the headline stat that I drill deeply into, I'm going to give you some snippets that would suggest a decent run is on the cards. (I could drill right down into the snippets, but I fear there'd be too much info and you'd get bored!)

So, we'll start with the filly herself, back amongst her own sex after a good effort to finish third in mixed company six days ago. That was under similar conditions at Wetherby when beaten by less than 2 lengths despite a slow start coming off a 239 day absence. All her best work was done at the end of the contest, so it's not unreasonable to suggest she'll come on for the run.

Since the start of last season, she has made the frame in 6 of 8 races, winning twice with 2 wins and 2 places from 6 at this 1m2f trip and her only visit here in the past was a course and distance success.

Ryan Rossa takes the ride today and claims 5lbs, he's in good touch right now, winning 5 of 27 (18.5% SR) and 3 of 14 (21.4%) over the past 14 and 7 days respectively and whilst they're not earth shatteringh figures, they're pretty good for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

In addition to recent form, Ryan is 12/83 (14.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+55.9% ROI) when riding for Richard Hannon, about whom I've several snippets in further support of my pick, but I'll just give you three for now, namely...

...last 2 years + Richard Hannon + Flat runners + less than 3 weeks rest = 138/826 (16.7% SR) for 225.1pts (+27.3% ROI), including...

  • on good to firm : 46/289 (15.9%) for 147pts (+50.9%)
  • females are 45/266 (16.9%) for 196.2pts (+73.8%)
  • over a 1m2f trip : 22/90 (24.4%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • females on good to firm are 12/85 (14.1%) for 132.1pts (+155.4%)
  • and females at 1m2f on good to firm are 2/8 925%) for 6.25pts (+78.1%)

...Richard Hannon + Class 5 Flat Handicaps + May to August = 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 120.3pts (+34.8% ROI) with those racing on good to firm ground winning 23 of 136 (16.9%) for 91.5pts (+67.3%)

...Richard Hannon + Lingfield Flat Handicaps = 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 8.88pts (+15.3% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 9/39 (23.1%) for 25.8pts (+66.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.02pts (+62.8%)
  • and over this 1m2f course and distance : 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.94pts (+227.7%)

...and that's more than enough to justify...a 1pt win bet on Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.25pm on Monday with some 9/2 BOG on offer from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Beverley : No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Chased leaders switched left 2f out, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, wandered inside final furlong, soon weakened)

We continue with Monday's...

4.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 

A 5-runner, Class 5 handicap for 4yo+over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has two wins and two places from his last six outings, so he's clearly in good shape and was actually an SotD pick last time out 13 days ago when finishing third over 5f at Lingfield.

He was unlucky that day, beaten by just a head and a neck staying on well at the finish despite being denied a clear run. The extra half furlong should therefore help today, as should a drop in class for this horse who is 5 from 16 when ridden by Nicky Mackay, he has 4 wins in this grade, has won over this trip, has won on good to firm ground and is 1 from 2 here at Brighton, both over course and distance.

In addition to his own suitability for the task ahead, trainer Simon Dow's handicappers dropping in class are 12/80 (15% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • males at 12/72 (16.9%) for 53.7pts (+75.6%)
  • those last seen 6-15 days earlier are 8/24 (33.3%) for 61.9pts (+258%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 are 5/23 (21.7%) for 4.9pts (+21.2%)

AND...males dropping into Class 5 contests, 6 to 15 days after their last run are 3/4 (75% SR) for 16.64pts (+416% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Sunday with plenty of 5/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Beverley : No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Chased leaders switched left 2f out, ridden and went 2nd over 1f out, wandered inside final furlong, soon weakened)

We continue with Monday's...

4.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 

A 5-runner, Class 5 handicap for 4yo+over 5½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has two wins and two places from his last six outings, so he's clearly in good shape and was actually an SotD pick last time out 13 days ago when finishing third over 5f at Lingfield.

He was unlucky that day, beaten by just a head and a neck staying on well at the finish despite being denied a clear run. The extra half furlong should therefore help today, as should a drop in class for this horse who is 5 from 16 when ridden by Nicky Mackay, he has 4 wins in this grade, has won over this trip, has won on good to firm ground and is 1 from 2 here at Brighton, both over course and distance.

In addition to his own suitability for the task ahead, trainer Simon Dow's handicappers dropping in class are 12/80 (15% SR) for 44.7pts (+55.9% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • males at 12/72 (16.9%) for 53.7pts (+75.6%)
  • those last seen 6-15 days earlier are 8/24 (33.3%) for 61.9pts (+258%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 are 5/23 (21.7%) for 4.9pts (+21.2%)

AND...males dropping into Class 5 contests, 6 to 15 days after their last run are 3/4 (75% SR) for 16.64pts (+416% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Sunday with plenty of 5/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.30 Goodwood : Oeil De Tigre @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Pulled hard in touch, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon hung badly right but ran on well to win by 3.5 lengths)

We continue with Saturday's...

3.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG 

A 13-runner, Fillies Conditions Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £21788 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, as per the summary at the foot of our racecard, the last 17 runnings of this contest have been won by 11 LTO winners and 3 debutants and with just 3 LTO winners and no debutants today, I was drawn to this filly, who has previously run well enough in better company.

Her form to date reads 1191 with the "9" not being as bad as a 9 normally looks, it was actually a 3 length defeat in a Listed contest on the quickest ground she's encountered to date, so no disgrace there.

Otherwise she's 3/4 at 5 furlongs, 2/3 with today's jockey (PJ McDonald who won for us on Thursday with Quantatmental), 2/2 at Class 2 and 2/2 on good ground.

It pays to be up with the pace over 5f at Beverley and she's one of just two who like to lead here and although it's generally perceived that a high draw (she's in 12) isn't great here, the data on our Pace/Draw analysis says otherwise and she'll also be helped by the other pace angle being next to her in 11.

And the stats behind the pick?

Well, I ignored the obvious/easy route of telling you to back Mark Johnston runners at Beverley, as much has already been made of this both in this column and elsewhere and whilst it is of course valid, we do like to find you something different for SotD.

So, yes it is a Mark Johnston runner at Beverley, but did you know that since the start of 2014, his runners who won LTO 1-25 days earlier at the same class & distance are 28 from 98 (28.3% SR) for 57.4pts (+58% ROI)?

And of those 98...

  • those who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 17/63 (27%) for 67.6pts (+107%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/31 (19.4%) for 52.7pts (+170%)
  • on good ground : 4/13 (30.8%) for 48.5pts (+373%)

...and Class 2 runners who won by just a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 59.7pts (+248.7% ROI), with a 2/5 (40%) record on good ground yielding 53.67pts at an ROI of 1053.4%. This allied to MJ's well-documented Beverley record...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on No Lippy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!