Tag Archive for: horse racing tips

2024 Kerry National Trends

Run over 3m the Guinness Kerry National is a Grade A Handicap Chase staged at Listowel racecourse.

Trainer Gordon Elliott has won two of the last 8 runnings and Joseph O'Brien two of the last three - while we’ve not seen a winning favourite in the last 10 renewals.

Here at Geegeez, we take a look back at past winners and gives you some of the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2024 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 25th September.

Recent Kerry National Winners

2023 - Desertmore House (11/1)
2022 - Busselton (13/2)
2021 – Assemble (9/1)
2020 – Cabaret Queen (6/1)
2019 – Poker Party (14/1)
2018 – Snow Falcon (6/1)
2017 – Potters Point (8/1)
2016 – Wrath Of Titans (7/1)
2015 – Rogue Angel (8/1)
2014 – Your Busy (25/1)
2013 – White Star Line (16/1)
2012 – Faltering Fullback (33/1)
2011 – Alfa Beat (20/1)
2010 – Alfa Beat (6/1)
2009 – Northern Alliance (4/1 fav)
2008 – Ponmeoath (9/1)
2007 – Ponmeoath (14/1)
2006 – Bothar Na (10/1)
2005 – Euro Leader (11/2)
2004 – Banasan (7/1)
2003 – Native Performance (8/1)
2002 – Monty’s Pass (9/1)

Kerry National Betting Trends

22/22 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
20/22 – Rated 126 or higher
19/22 – Aged 8 or younger
17/22 – Had run at Listowel before (6 won)
16/22 – Had won at least twice over fences before
16/22 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/22 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – The first three home were aged 9 or younger
11/22– Had won 5 or more times
11/22 – Favourites placed
11/22 – Winning distance between 1 and 4 lengths
10/22 – Carried 10-9 or more
8/22 – Had won over 3m (or further) before
8/22 – Ran at Galway last time out
3/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/22 – Trained by Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 3)
2/22 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 7)
1/22 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-6 or less
8 of the last 9 winners have been aged 7 or 8
4 of the last 9 winners ridden by a claiming jockey



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Sat TV Trends: 17th Aug 2024

We’ve got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE ITV action from Ripon, Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday.

Up at Ripon, it’s one of their biggest days with the competitive William Hill-sponsored Great St Wilfrid Handicap - a race that 16 of the last 22 winners were aged between 4-6 years-old.

Then at Newbury the Group Two Hungerford Stakes is one of their features - a contest that’s seen 13 of the last 15 winners were all draw 6 or lower.

Finally, the ITV cameras are also at Newmarket to take in the unique grey horse handicap.

We’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered with key trends - use these to find the best profiles based on recent winners of each race.

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2:05 – Jenningsbet Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV

20/21 – Didn’t win last time out
18/21 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
17/21 – Had won over 6f before
17/21 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
15/21 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Aged 5 or older
14/21 – Had 3 or more career wins
14/21 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
13/21 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/21 – Unplaced favourites
3/21 – Winning favourites
2/21 – Trained by Mick Appleby (2 of the last 7)
4 of the last 6 winners from stalls 4 or lower
Strike won the race in 2022 and 6th in 2023

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV

22/22 – Had won at least twice in their career
19/22 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
18/22 – Aged 3-5 years-old
17/22 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/22 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
15/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/22 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
14/22 – Officially rated 110 or higher
13/22 – Winning favourites
12/22 – Ran at Goodwood or Newmarket last time out
10/22 – Had already won a Group race
9/22 – Had won at Newbury before
Arrest (5/6 fav) won the race in 2023

2:25 – BetVictor Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-88) 5f ITV

One previous running
Desperate Hero (4/1) won the race in 2023
Trainer Clive Cox is just 1 from 26 with his 4 year-olds at the track
Trainer Julie Camacho has an overall 29% strike-rate at the track
Trainer Darryll Holland has an overall 23% strike-rate at the track

3.00 – TPT Fire Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV

12/13 - Aged between 3-6 (inc)
12/13 - Carried 9-1 or more in weight
10/13 - Won between 2-4 times before
11/13 - Had won over 7f or further before
9/13 - Finished 5th or better last time out
9/13 - Rated between 90-96 (inc)
8/13 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 - Carried between 9-1 and 9-7
7/13 - Had raced at Newbury before
7/13 - Irish bred
5/13 - Ran at Ascot last time out
3/13 - Ridden by Adam Kirby
2/13 - Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 7)
2/13 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 4)
2/13 - Winning favourites
2/13 - Won last time out
The 3 of the last 5 winners came from stall 6
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Spangled Mac (15/2) won the race in 2023
Documenting (7/2) won the race in 2022

3.35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

20/22 – Didn’t win last time out
18/22 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/22 – Had won over this 7f trip before
18/22 – Officially rated 108 or more
18/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
17/22 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
16/22 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
12/22 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
8/22 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/22 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 9)
13 of the last 15 winners were all draw 6 or lower
Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
Witch Hunter won the race in 2023
Jumby won the race in 2022

RIPON Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Racing)

2:45 William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-80) 6f ITV

One past running
Roundhay Park (11/1) won the race in 2023
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 31% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Paul Midgely has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Edward Bethell has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Grant Tuer is just 1-from-45 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Callum Rodriguez has a 21% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3:20 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

19/22 – Previous winners over 6f
16/22 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
16/22 – Didn’t win last time out
15/22– Winning distance of 1 length or less
14/22 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/22 - Had run at Ripon before (4 won)
12/21 – Unplaced favourites
12/22 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
9/22 – Ran at either Goodwood (6) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/22 – Aged 4 years-old
6/22 – Winning favourites (5 in the last 11)
3/22 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 13)
3/22 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
3/22 – Ridden by Connor Beasley
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 11)
2/22 – Aged 3 years-old
Summerghand was runner-up in 2023
No winner from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings
8 of the last 18 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 7 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less

 

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Sat TV Trends: 27th July 2024

It’s King George Day at Ascot this Saturday as some of the best middle-distance horses in the world line-up for this lucrative Group One. We’ve four LIVE ITV races to take in at the Berkshire track, while there’s also four races at York that are headlined by the Group Two Sky Bet York Stakes.

As always, we’ve got all the key trends for LIVE ITV Races this Saturday (27th July 2024) – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and narrow down the runners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

1:50 - Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/21 – Had won just once before
16/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/21 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
16/21 – Won over 6f before
14/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
10/21 – Winning favourite
7/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 – Won by the Hannon yard
2/21 – Won by the Johnston yard (3 in total)
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
11 of the last 18 winners were Irish bred
10 of the last 18 horses from stall 1 were placed
5 of the last 12 winners came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Sacred Angel (16/1) won the race in 2023
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

2.25 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Filles and Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

11/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/12 – Won over at least 7f before
12/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Won 2 or 3 times in the past
9/12 – Came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
8/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Had run at Ascot before
2/12 – Winning favourites (last in 2015)
2/12 – Trained by Ed Walker (2 of the last)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
Random Harvest (10/3) won the race in 2023

3.00 - Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

21/21 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
21/21 – Had raced at Ascot previously
19/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
17/21 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
16/21 – Won over 7f previously
16/21 – Won between 2-4 times previously
14/21 – Favourites unplaced
14/21 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
13/21 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
12/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/21 – Aged 4 years-old
9/21 – Raced at Ascot last time out
7/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/21 – Won their last race
3/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3/21 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 4)
2/21 – Trained by Clive Cox
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 14 years
15 of the last 17 winners ran at Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
13 of the last 17 winners came from a double-figure stall
10 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
Baradar (16/1) won the race in 2023
Fresh (8/1) won the race in 2022
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

3:40 - King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (British Champion Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV

22/22 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
20/22 – Had won over 1m4f before
19/22 – Placed last time out
18/22 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
18/22 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
18/22 – Previous Group 1 winner
17/22 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/22 – Had run Ascot before
13/22 – Won their previous race
12/22 – Aged 4 years-old
10/22 – Favourites that won
10/22 – Won at Ascot before
8/22 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/22 – Trained by John Gosden
4/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
Just three 6+ year-old winners since 1951
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017, 2019 and 2020
2 of the last 9 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Adayar (2021) and Galileo (2001) were the last horses to do the Derby/King George double in the same season
Trainer John Gosden won the race in 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 & 2020
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009, 2010 & 2018
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 4/1

York Horse Racing Trends

 

2.05 - Sky Bet ‘Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe’ Handicap (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 5f ITV

Just 6 previous runnings
5/6 - Aged between 5-7 (inc)
5/6 - Carried between 10-8 and 11-1 in weight
3/6 - Won by trainer Paul Midgley
2/6 – Trained by David O’Meara
1/6 - Winning favourite
The last 2 winners returned 25/1
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 14/1
Birkenhead (25/1) won the race in 2022
Soul Seeker (11/2) won the race in 2021 and 2023

2.40 - Sky Bet Dash Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV

20/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
18/20 – Carried 8-12 or more
16/20 – Had won between 2-6 times before
17/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/20 – Had run at York before
13/19 – Aged 5 or younger
13/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Placed favourites
11/20 – Raced at Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
6/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 4)
Jockey Connor Beasley has ridden 3 of the last 5 winners
12 of the last 18 winners carried 9-0 or more
Aberama Gold (7/1) won the race in 2023
Dakota Gold (10/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

3.15 - Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV

17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
16/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
15/18 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Rated between 110 and 117
12/18 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
11/18 – Had run at York before
8/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Aged 6 years-old
2/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Alflaila (5/1) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

 

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Sat TV Trends: 8th June 2024

Another busy Saturday of horse racing ahead with the LIVE ITV action this week coming from Beverley and Haydock. As always, here at GeeGeez we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Betfred Passionate About Sport Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
13/14 – Aged 5 or older
13/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
11/14 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
11/14 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
10/14 – Won between 6-8 times before
10/14 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
10/14 – Had run at the course before
9/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 7)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
The last 11 winners came between stalls 2-10
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2020 running was staged at Doncaster

2.25 Betfred “Play Fred’s £5 Million” Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers Charlie Fellowes & David & Nicola Barron have won the race before
No winning favourite
Both winners aged 4 years-old
Both winners carried between 8-4 and 8-8
Jockey Jim Crowley has a 25% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Callum Shepherd has a 25% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3.00 – Betfred Nifty Fifty Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes (Reg as the Pinnacle Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m3f ITV4

20/21 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
18/21 – Rated 92 or higher
17/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
16/21 – Aged 4 years-old
16/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/21 – Placed favourites
14/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/21 – Had run at Haydock before
6/21 – Winning favourites
6/21 – Won last time out
2/21 – Trained by Roger Varian
3/21 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of the last 5)
2/21 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (last 2)
2/21 – Trained by John Gosden
The last 8 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The last 10 winners aged 4 or 5
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

3.35 - Betfred John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4

19/20 – Rated 106 or higher
18/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
17/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had won over 7f before
16/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/20 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
13/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/20 – Favourites placed
6/20 – Had run at the track before
7/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 Co)
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of the last 8)
Jumby (9/4 fav) won the race in 2023
9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 4-6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 - Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4

16/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/18 – Had won over 5f before
13/18 – Had won just once before
13/18 – Irish bred
13/18 – Had raced between 1-2 times before
11/18 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
10/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Placed favourites
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/18 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (4 in total)
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Raced at York last out
2/18 – Trained by Tim Easterby (5 in total)
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 5)
2/18– Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/18 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (last 2)
1/18 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 5/1
12 of the last 13 winners drawn 9 or lower
10 or the last 12 winners were foaled in Feb or March
9 of last 14 winners have been drawn in stalls 6-9 (inc)

2.40 – bet365 Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/14 – Feb, March or April bred
14/14 – Drawn in 6 or lower
12/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Won over 5f before
9/14 – Won at least once before
9/14 – Favourites placed
7/14 – Had raced twice or more
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Irish bred
6/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Drawn in stall 1
3/14 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 4)
The last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

3.15 - bet365 Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 7 1/2 f ITV4

One previous runnings
Trainer Mick Appleby won the race in 2023
Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 27% record with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Herrington has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael and David Easterby has a 18% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ruth Carr is just 1-from-61 with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tina Jackson is just 2-from-31 with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Scott Dixon is just 1-from-22 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Ryan Sexton has a 24% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joanna Mason has a 22% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

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Sat TV Trends: 1st June 2024

It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.

Did you know that 19 of the last 22 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 13 of the last 22 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

Supporting the big race, we’ve got four more LIVE races to take in that include the Epsom Dash, which is run over one of the quickest 5f courses in the world – blink and you’ll miss it!

We've got all the main trends and stats to help you find the best profiles of past winners of the LIVE ITV Epsom races - plus ALL the supporting races.

EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.25 – Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap Cl2 1m2f18y RTV

21/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
19/21 – Had won over 1m+ before (6 over 1m2f)
18/21 – Never run at Epsom before
14/21 – Winners from stall 5 or higher (but 5 of last 6 drawn 5 or lower)
14/21 – Placed last time out
13/21 – Carried 8-10 or more
12/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/21 – Favourites placed
8/21 – Horses placed from stall 1
6/21 – Won their previous race
3/21 – Winners from stall 1
3/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/21 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/21 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
3/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 6)
2/21 – Ridden by Hayley Turner (2 of the last 3)
Stall 2 has just 3 places (1 win) to its name in the last 21 runnings

2.00 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By My Pension Expert) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV4


21/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
20/21 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
18/21 – Favourites placed
17/21 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
17/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/21 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
16/21 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/21 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/21 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/21 – Had won between 4-6 times before
13/21 – Aged 4 years-old
12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/21 – Winning favourites
10/21 – Had raced at Epsom before
10/21 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/21 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/21 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/21 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/21 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Tom Marquand (2) & James Doyle (3) have won 5 of the last 14 runnings
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 14 runnings
The last 11 winners were drawn 8 or lower (8 of the last 11 drawn 5 or lower)

2.35 – BETFRED Diomed STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

20/20 – Had won over at least a mile before
18/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/20 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/20 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Aged 5 or older
12/20 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/20 – Ridden by William Buick
2/20 – Trained by the Crisford stable
Regal Reality won the race in 2023

 

3.10 - Betfred 3YO “Dash” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 5f ITV4

One previous  runnings
Trainer Michael Dods won the race in 2023 (Tattersalls, 8/1)
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has a 60% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 2 from 27 (7%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey David Probert is just 1 from 25 (4%) riding 3 year-olds at the track

3.45 – Aston Martin "Dash" Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV


Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats

19/21– Didn’t win last time out
19/21 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (13 within the last 4 weeks)
17/21– Unplaced favourites
16/21 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
15/21 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
15/21 – Came from stall 8 or higher
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/21 – Had raced at Epsom previously (5 had won)
5/21 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/21 – Winning favourites
Navello (25/1) won the race in 2023

4.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

21/22 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
20/22 – Raced no more than 5 times before
19/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18/22 – Had won a Group race before
18/22 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
14/22 – Won last time out
13/22 – Won from a single-figure stall (10 of the last 11 came from stalls 7-12)
13/22 – Favourites that were placed
12/22 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
11/22 – Irish-trained winners
9/22 – Had won a Group One before
8/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 9 in all)
7/22 – Won by the favourite
6/22 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
5/22 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
5/22 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
4/22 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/22 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/22 – Won over 1m4f before
1/22 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
0/22 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 22 runnings is 8/1
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 7-12 (6 of the last 11 from stalls 10 (3) or 12 (3))
11 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Desert Crown (2022) & Golden Horn (2015) being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Since the stalls were introduced in 1967 only Oath (1999) and Adayar (2021) has won from stall 1

 

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2022, 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2020 & 2023

5.15 – Long Shot Northern Dancer Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

10/10 - Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Carried 9-3 or less
7/10 – Drawn between 9-16 (inc)
2/10 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 3)
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 3)
2/10 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 9)
2/10 – Winning favourites (2 of the last 5)  

5:50 - JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

10/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 or higher
8/10 – Drawn between stalls 4 and 10
8/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/10 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
4/10 – Drawn in stalls 4 (2) or 10 (2)
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Jason Hart (2 of the last 6)
2/10 – Trained by John Quinn (2 of the last 6)
2/10 – Trained by Ian Williams (2 of the last 5)
Badri won the race in 2023

 

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Sat TV Trends: 25th May 2024

More LIVE ITV3 horse racing this Saturday (25th May 24) as the cameras take in 8 races across three venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV3/RacingTV)

1.30 - William Hill Harroways Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 7f ITV3

10/10 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
9/10 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
9/10 – Came from stalls 2-6 (inc)
9/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 - returned between 9/2 to 12/1
6/10 - carried between 8-0 and 8-4
6/10 – Winners from stall 2 or 3
5/10 – Won just once before
3/10 – Rated between 77-81
4/10 – Winners from stall 3
3/10 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/10 - Trained by Richard Hannon
2/10-  Winning favourites
David O’Meara, William Haggas, Richard Hannon (2), Johnston (3), Andrew Balding, William Muir and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
The average SP in the last 9 runnings is 17/2

2.05 – William Hill Height Of Fashion Stakes (Listed Race) (Cl1) (3yo) 1m2f ITV3

10/10 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/10 – Ran between 1-4 times before
9/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Yet to win over 1m2f
7/10 – Ran between 1-2 times
7/10 – Won between stalls 4-8 (inc)
7/10 – Had won just once before
6/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winners from stall 7
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Winning favourite
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV3/RacingTV)

2.45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 9 previous runnings
8/9 – Winning distance ¾ length or less
7/9 – Aged 5 or younger
7/9 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
3/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/9 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/9 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/9 – Aged 4 years-old
2/9 – Winning favourites
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 12/1

3.20 – Williamhill.com Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/5 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
5/5 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
2/45- Winning favourites
River Of Stars won the race in 2023
Trainers Ralph Beckett, Andrew Balding, Roger Varian, John Gosden and William Haggas have won the race in the past

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV3/RacingTV)

1.15 – Betfred Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV3

20/20 – Had won between 1-3 times before
19/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
18/20 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
18/20 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/20 – Placed last time out
16/20 – Carried 9-1 or less
13/20 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
12/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Trained by the Gosden yard (2 of the last 4)
2/20 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of last 10)
David Probert has ridden 3 of the last 13 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

1.50 –Betfred Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV3

20/21 – Trained in the UK
19/21 – Had won over 5f before
18/21 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
14/21 – Placed third or better last time out
13/21 – Raced within the last 2 months
13/21 – Favourites that were placed
13/21 – Had won a Group race before
9/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Won their latest race
2/21 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 9 runnings)
2/21 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 7 runnings)
2/21 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of the last 5 runnings)
2/21 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/21 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 7 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 11/2
9 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Just 3 of the last 19 winners aged 3

2.25 – Betfred Nify Fifty Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV3

17/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
17/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – From stall 5 or higher
13/18 – Had won between 1-3 times before
9/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/18 – Raced at York last time
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/18 – Trained by Karl Burke (2 of the last 7)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015

3.00 – Betfred Hattrick Heaven New Boston Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 7f ITV3

Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 - Retuned 9/2 or less
3/3 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-5 in weight
2/3 - Winning favourites
2/3 – Aged 4 years-old
Charlie Fellowes, Clive Cox and Ed Walker are the past winning trainers

3.30 – Betfred Nifty 50 Hell Nook Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV3

Just 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Winners aged 4 or 5
9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
9/9 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
8/9 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
8/9 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
8/9 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
7/9 – Rated between 89-98
7/9 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
2/9 – Trained by the Johnston yard
1/9 – Winning favourites (joint)
7 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Trainers John Quinn, William Haggas, Mark Johnston (2), Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison, Lucy Wadham & Andrew Balding were previous winners of the race

 

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Sat TV Trends: 18th May 2024

After a week at York the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from NewmarketAs always, here at Geegeez we've got all the big race trends to help you find the best profiles based on past winners.

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.50 – Sky Sports Racing Aston Park Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

19/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/20 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/20 – Drawn 4 or lower
15/20 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
14/20 – Had run at Newbury before
13/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/20 – Irish bred
11/20 – Had won between 1-3 times before
10/20 – Aged 4 years-old
7/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (2 of the last 5)
4/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/20 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 3)
3 of the last 15 winners were Godolphin-owned

2.25 – Highclere Castle Gin Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

17/19 – Had won over 6f before
16/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
15/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
14/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
13/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Drawn in stall 3
3/19 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/19 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 9)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

3.00 – Trade Nation London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

19/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Carried 8-10 or more
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/20 – Rated 90 or lower
14/20 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
14/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/20 – Won last time out
9/20 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/20 – Irish bred
6/20 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 9)
4/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

3.35 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

20/20 – Won over a mile before
17/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/20 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Had won a Group One race before
15/20 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
15/20 – Aged 4 years-old
15/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
14/20 – Winning favourites
11/20 – Having their first run of the season
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
6/20 – Godolphin owned
4/20 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/20 – Won by a mare
4/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/20 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/20 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/20 – Winners from stall 1 or 2

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Jenningsbet Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-90) 7f ITV

Just one previous run
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 15% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 10 from 121 with his 3 year-olds at the track

2.40 – trustatrader.com Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV

7/7 - Won over at least 7f before
7/7 - Won 2+ times before
7/7 - Carried 8-12 or more in weight
6/7 - Aged 4 or 6 years old
6/7 - Placed favourites
6/7 - Drawn between stalls 1-7 (inc)
5/7 - Rated between 85-91
5/7 - Didn’t win last time out
3/7 - Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 3)
2/7 - Ridden by William Buick
2/7 - Winning favourites

3.15 – Jenningsbet Britain’s Leading Independent Bookmakers Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-88) ITV

10/10 – Won over 1m (or further) before
9/10 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/10 – Unplaced last time out
9/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Drawn 7 or lower
7/10 – Rated between 80-89
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
5/10 – Unplaced last time out
3/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/10 – Favourites
Repertoire (11/2) won the race in 2023

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Sat TV Trends: 9th March 2024

The excitement is building for the week before the Cheltenham Festival, but before that, this Saturday the ITV cameras head to Sandown, with the Imperial Cup their feature race, plus they are also at Wolverhampton for two races that include the Lincoln Handicap Trial.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Betfair "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4fy ITV4

20/20 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
19/20 – Carried 10-11 or more
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
16/20 – Rated 129 or less
16/20 – Unplaced favourites
15/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/20 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
13/20 – Irish bred
12/20 – Aged 6 years-old
11/20 – Had won over this trip before
7/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/20 – Won by the Fergal O’Brien yard (2 of the last 8)
2/20 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/20 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/20 – Winning favourites
1/20 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

2.25 – Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

19/20 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
19/20 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
18/20 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Rated 124 or higher
16/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/20 – Aged 6 or younger
13/20 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
12/20 – Carried 10-7 or less
12/20 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter 2007)
12/20 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/20 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
7/20 – French bred
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 7)
2/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 4)
2/20 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 11/1

3.00 – British Stallion Studs EBF Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/19 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
18/19 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
17/19 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
13/19– Won last time out
13/19 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
11/19 – Aged 5 years-old
11/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
1/19 – Winning favourites
12 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Luccia won the race last year

3.35 – Betfair Serial Winners Fund Novices’ Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Top 4 finish last time out
6/6 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/6 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
5/6 – Aged 5 or 6 year-old
5/6 – French bred
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
4/6 – Carried 11st or less
2/6 – Favourites placed
2/6 – Won with 11st 8lbs or more
0/6 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Tizzard, Venetia Williams, Ben Pauling, Nick Williams and Gary Moore (2) are the past winners of this race
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sarah Humphrey is 3-from-3 with her chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/1

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (SkySports/ITV)

2.40 – BetMGM Lady Wulfruna Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV4

14/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Rated 104 or higher
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/17 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/17 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
6/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/17 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
6/17 – Winning favourite
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 6)
2/17 – Trained by Marco Botti
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 4)
Tinker Toy won the race in 2022
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

3.15 – BetMGM Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV4

19/21 – Aged 6 or younger
19/21 – Won over a mile (or further) before
17/21 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
17/21 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21– Won at least three times before
11/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/21 – Came from stall 8 or higher
10/21 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
9/21 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
7/21 – Aged 5 years-old
8/21 – Won last time out
5/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2) or David Probert (2)
2/21 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/21 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2 of the last 5 winners were trained by Andrew Balding
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

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Sat TV Trends: 17th Sept 2022

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race.

Did you know? 16 of the last 21 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.20 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

10/10 - Won at least twice before
10/10 - Rated between 89 and 96
9/10 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 - Won previously over 1m
8/10 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
8/10 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
7/10 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
7/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/10 - Irish bred
6/10 - Placed favourites
5/10 - Had run at Ayr before
4/10 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/10 - Winning favourites
Revich (20/1) won the race in 2021

1.55 – Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Yet to race at Ayr
10/11 – Won over 1m2f or more
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
9/11 – Rated between 101 and 111
9/11 – Won 3 or more times before
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Aged 4 or older
7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/11 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 9)
3/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of the last 7)

2.30 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

19/19 – Carried 8-11 or more
16/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Previous winners over 6f
15/19 – Winning distance 1 length or less
15/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
15/19 – Carried 9-0 or more
14/19 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
14/19 – Had 5 or more runs that season
12/19 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
12/19 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/19 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/19 – Winning Favourites
0/19 – Filly or mare winners

3.05 – Virgin Bet Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

17/19 – Had never raced at Ayr before
16/19 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/19 – Previous winners over 6f
15/19 – Had won once or two times before
14/19 – Winning distance 1 length or further
14/19 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/19 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
13/19 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
11/19 – Placed favourites
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/19 – Trained by Bryan Smart

3.40 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

21/21 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
18/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
18/21 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
16/21 – Had won over 6f before
16/21 – Failed to win their last race
14/21 – Rated 90-101
14/21 – Carried 9-1 or more
14/21 – Came from a double-figure stall
13/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/21 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/21 – Unplaced favourites
11/21 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/21 – Ran at Doncaster (3), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
10/21 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/21 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/21 – Winning favourites (4 winning favs since 1980)
2/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/21 - Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 9)
0/21 – Filly or mare winners
12 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 17 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just 6 winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 14/1

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.40 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

20/20 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
18/20 – Priced 9/1 or less
16/20 – Aged 5 or younger
16/20 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
15/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/20 – Had 4 or more career wins
12/20 – Raced at Newbury before
11/20 – Favourites placed
11/20 – Had won a Group race before
9/20 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/20 – Won their last race
4/20 – Favourites that won
4/20 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 7 runnings)
4/20 – Raced at York last time
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Solid Stone (12/1) won the race last year

 

2.15 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

19/20 – Raced four or more times that season
18/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
17/20 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
16/20 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
16/20 – Won a Listed or Group race before
16/20 – Won over 5f previously
15/20 - Aged 5 or younger
14/20 – Won 4 or more times
13/20 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/20 – Previous Group race winners
7/20 – Won their last race
6/20 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 9 winners)
6/20 – Favourites
5/20 – Mare winners

 

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

15/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
15/20 – Won from draw 5 or lower
15/20 – Raced 3 or more times
15/20 – Won over 6f previously
14/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Foaled in March or later
12/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/20 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/20 – Won exactly two races before
7/20 – Won by an April foal
6/20 – Won their previous race
5/20 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/20 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/20 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 6)
2/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/20 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/20 – Filly winners

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won over 1m2f or further before
11/12 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
10/12 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
9/12 – Won 3 or 4 times
8/12 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/12 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
6/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/12 – Had run at Newbury before

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Doncaster TV Trends: Sun 11th Sept 2022

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse in the middle of September (7th-11th) for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV3.

Note: Due to the Queen's sad death the St Leger card (and some other races lost on Friday's Doncaster card) will now be run on Sunday 11th Sept 2022.

As we head into Sunday - the final day of the St Leger Festival - the Cazoo St Leger is the main event - the oldest and final of the English Classics.

As always, here at GeeGeez, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

Sunday 11th September 2022

12.30 Coral Champagne Stakes Group 2, 7f ITV

  • Key Trends
  • 20/21 - Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 19/21 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
  • 18/21 – Favourites placed
  • 17/21 – Had won over 7f before
  • 17/21 – Finished third or better last time out
  • 16/21 – Won by a Feb or March foal
  • 13/21 – Won last time out
  • 12/21 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or t­­he Curragh last time out
  • 9/21 – Raced 3 or more times that season
  • 9/21 – Winning favourites
  • 4/21 – Won by Godolphin
  • 4/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
  • 2/21 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
  • 2/21 – Winners from stall 1

1:00 - Cazoo Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6½f

  • Key Trends
  • 12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
  • 12/12 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
  • 11/12 – Aged 5 or younger
  • 11/12 – Won over 6f and 7f
  • 11/12 – Won between 2-4 times
  • 11/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 10/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
  • 10/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
  • 10/12 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
  • 9/12 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
  • 9/12 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
  • 8/12 – Carried between 8-10 and 8-13 in weight
  • 7/12 – Had run at Doncaster before
  • 7/12 – Irish bred
  • 1/12 – Winning favourites
  • 0/12 – Winners from stall 1

1:35 - Wainwright Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV

  • Key Trends
  • 17/18 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
  • 15/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
  • 14/18 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
  • 14/18 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
  • 13/18 – Won 1-2 times before
  • 12/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 9/18 – Placed favourites
  • 7/18 – Winning favourites
  • 7/18 – Ran at York last time
  • 6/18 – Foaled in April
  • 5/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
  • 5/18 – Won last time out
  • 1/18 – Irish-trained winners
  • 1/18 – Winners from stall 1

2:10 - Coral Portland Handicap 5½f

  • Key Trends
  • 19/20 – Carried 8-12 or more
  • 17/20 – Had run 5 or more times that season
  • 16/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
  • 16/20 – Won over 6f before
  • 15/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
  • 14/20 – Winner rated between 95 and 102
  • 13/20 – Run at Doncaster previously
  • 13/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
  • 12/20 – Won 4 or more times in their career
  • 10/20 – Unplaced Favourites
  • 10/20 – Placed in their last race
  • 9/20 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 9 of last 14 years)
  • 7/20 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
  • 5/20 – Winning favourites
  • 4/20 – Raced at Ripon last time out
  • 3/20 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
  • 3/20 – Won last time out
  • 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or younger

2:45 - Coral Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 2m2f ITV4

 

  • Key Trends
  • 19/21 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
  • 19/21 – Had 2 or more runs that season
  • 18/21 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 16/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
  • 15/21 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
  • 15/21 – Placed last time out
  • 14/21 – Had won 5 or more times before
  • 13/21 – Aged 6 or younger
  • 13/21 – Previous Group race winners
  • 13/21 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
  • 12/21 – Ran at York last time out
  • 10/21 – Winning favourites
  • 9/21 – Won last time out
  • 8/21 – Unplaced favourites
  • 4/21 – Trained in Ireland

3.20 Cazoo Park Stakes Group 2, 7f

 

  • Key Trends
  • 16/19 – Won 3 or more times before
  • 15/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
  • 16/19 – Run 3 or more times that season
  • 16/19 – Won a Group race previously
  • 16/19 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
  • 15/19 – Won over 7f before
  • 14/19 – Aged 4 or older
  • 13/19 – Placed favourites
  • 12/19 – Unplaced in their most recent race
  • 10/19 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
  • 9/19 – Placed horses from stall 1
  • 8/19 – Had run at Doncaster before
  • 5/19 – Winning favourites
  • 2/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
  • 4 Irish-trained winners in the last 13 runnings

3.55 Cazoo St Leger Stakes Group 1, 1m6½f

 

  • Key Trends
  • 18/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
  • 17/20 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
  • 17/20 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
  • 16/20 – Placed favourites
  • 16/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 15/20 – Had won a Group race before
  • 15/20 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
  • 14/20 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
  • 13/20 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
  • 12/20 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
  • 12/20 – Won last time out
  • 11/20 – Officially rated 109 to 115
  • 9/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
  • 8/20 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
  • 5/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
  • 4/20 – Trained by John Gosden
  • 4/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
  • 4/20 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (7 wins in total)
  • 3/20 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
  • 3/20 – Ridden by William Buick
  • 2/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
  • 2/20 – Winners from stall 1
  • Godolphin have won the race 7 times
  • Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 winners of the race
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13/2

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Sat TV Trends: 26th March 2022

Something for everyone this Saturday as new turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes, plus jumping fans will get their fix at Kelso.

The ITV cameras are showing eight races across the three venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Unibet Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
8/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/14 – Had won at Kempton before
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Trained by William Haggas

2.40 - Unibet Queen’s Prize Handicap (London Stayers’ Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

10/10 - Won no more than 5 times
9/10 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/10 - Didn’t win last time out
8/10 - Had won over 1m6f or further
7/10 - Only won between 1-3 times before
7/10 - Rated between 82-89
7/10 - Had run at Kempton before
7/10 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 - Favourites that finished 2nd
5/10  - Had won at Kempton in the past
2/10 - Trained by Roger Charlton
0/10 - Winning favourites

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1.50 - SBK Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
15/17 – Had won no more than 5 times before
15/17 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
15/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/17 – Rated 102+
10/17 – Had raced at Doncaster before
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites (or joint)
4/17 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)

2.25 – SBK Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/19 – Carried 8-13 or more
15/19 – Aged 4 years-old
15/19 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
13/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/19 – Won over a mile before
10/19 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/19 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 19 years

3.00 – SBK Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

Just 8 previous running
8/8 – Last ran 4+ months ago
8/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Rated 106+
7/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/8 – Had won over at least 1m before
7/8 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4
4/8 – Had won 6+ times before
4/8 – Winning favourites
4/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/8 – Trained by Roger Varian (3 of last 5)
2/8 – Won last time out

3.35 – SBK Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

18/18 – Aged 6 or younger
17/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/18 – Had won between 2-4 times before
14/18 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
13/18 – Having their first run of the flat season
12/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Aged 4 years-old
10/18 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/18 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/18 – Placed first or second last time out
9/18 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/18 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/18  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/18 – Trained by John Quinn
2/18 - Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 3)
9 of the last 11 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 35 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

Kelso Horse Racing Trends

1.35 - Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV

7/7 - Aged between 7-10 years old
7/7 - Won over at least 2m5f before
7/7 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 - Carried 11st 1lbs or more in weight
6/7 - Didn’t win last time out
5/7 - Carried 11st 5lbs or more in weight
5/7 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 - Irish bred
4/7 - Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/7 - Rated between 140-142
3/7 - Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 - Had run at Kelso before
2/7 - Trained by Lucinda Russell
1/7  - Winning favourites

3:15 - Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 50% (3-from-6) record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 40% record (2-from-5) record with his hurdlers at the track



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The Ultimate Guide to Betting on Horses and Using Geegeez Gold

This Q&A article is designed to highlight and explain possible betting angles in horse racing and different ways to get the best out of Geegeez Gold. This will be added to on a regular basis, answering questions from YOU, the readers. 

For all questions there will be answers from each of Matt Bisogno, Sam Darby and Chris Worrall. Everyone has a slightly different approach when it comes to betting on horses so you should expect differing answers from all three contributors.

If you have a question you’d like to ask the Geegeez panel, about horse racing in general or specifically their use of Geegeez Gold, please post your query in the comments section and we’ll do our best to include it in the next round of answers.

How do you approach looking for bets with Geegeez Gold?

 

Matt: I’ve a number of things I’m looking for, some situational and some more general. The first and most important thing, in my view, is to choose the right races. Race selection is under-rated and yet, if fishing in shallower pools, we have a much better chance of getting a result. Because of the nature of Geegeez Gold, which is geared much more towards form profiles, I tend to look for races where the horses have already run plenty of times (and therefore we know pretty much their level of ability).

In such races, it is rare that one suddenly steps forward significantly, and so it is often a case of finding the one best suited by the conditions. Tools like Instant Expert, the pace tab and, for flat races, draw tab all feature strongly in my analysis.

More specifically, some of the things I’m keen on marking up (because I believe they’re generally under-rated) are extremes of going (heavy, firm) or field size (very small or 16+ runner fields), specialist distances (5f, 9f, 2m2f+ on flat, 3m6f+ over jumps), first/second time scenarios (trainer records with first or second time in a handicap), change of trainer, distance move, and so on.

For those of you more experimental (and experienced), taking a keen interest in sectional data can be rewarding. Identifying horses with a likely similar pace scenario today from when they recorded a strong sectional figure can be very worthwhile. Our Fast Finishers report is valuable to that end, and comes into its own during the AW season in my view.

Ultimately, I’m looking for value by using bits of information others might not be. Choosing the right races is a big leg up, and then Geegeez Gold can help hugely thereafter.

This video post on Race Selection may help.

 

Sam: In most races I already have an idea of what I’m going to be backing as I’ll be guided by my tracker entries. The races in which my tracker horses are entered are those that initially interest me.

First of all I’ll remind myself of why they are in my tracker, by either checking my notes or checking the strength of their recent runs (in nearly every case I’ll have added them as they’ve run well in a ‘hot’ race). Then I’ll go through the other runners in the race and I’ll check how my tracked runners are likely to be advantaged or disadvantaged by the run of the race based on course pace and draw biases and the pace setup of the race, so heavy use of the draw and pace tabs. 

If there are unknowns about any of the runners, particularly ground or distance, I’ll often use the sire tab on the Profiler tool to check their likely suitability. I’ll use all this info to determine whether or not those runners are a bet and if they are, the strength of that bet.

There are also courses where I always have a quick look through to see if there are any in form front runners likely to get an easy lead. I only do this for front runner favouring courses. I use the pace maps to get a quick snapshot of the pace setup and then I check the form of any lone pace angles. If they have the form to be competitive I’ll look at the entire race in more detail before deciding if that front runner is a bet or not.

 

Chris: As many of you are already aware, I’m predominantly a stats-based bettor and I use the query tool and report suites to highlight runners that might interest me. I then weed out those in races I don’t like getting involved in, sticking mainly (but not exclusively) to handicaps, where there’s plenty of data to work with.

Trainers are generally pretty fixed in their ways and once they find an approach that works for them, they’re loathe to change and that’s why I follow the stats. If trainer xyz excels in staying handicaps on testing ground and he suddenly has one out, then I’ll take a look, then I use the toolkit to assess whether conditions will suit the horse, before moving to pace and where relevant, draw.

But, I should re-iterate what I’ve said elsewhere, lists of horses from statistical reports, either created by myself or by the Geegeez report suite are only ever an initial excuse/reason to look at a race, they’re not a list of bets.

What do you think is the most underrated angle/aspect of form study?

 

Matt: Two things spring to mind. First, run style - especially front runners from higher draws - can be a gold mine. And secondly, exposed horses (i.e. those that have run many times already and have few secrets from the formbook) in exposed handicaps. 

It is often said that such horses “take it in turns to win”. That is true, but the inference - that it is impossible to know which will have its turn today - is incorrect. A combination of a competitive (relative to personal history) handicap mark, favourable draw and/or run style, and the right track and trip normally see a horse in the mix. That will often be factored into its price, of course, but still quite often it is not.

 

Sam: I still think pace biases are generally underappreciated, both by punters and bookies. In terms of course biases, using Chester as an example, bookmakers are obviously well aware of the effect of the draw and in most 5f handicaps the first three in the betting will be drawn in the lowest stalls. They are strongly reacting to the likely effect of the draw - and rightly so.

However in these same races the odds rarely reflect the likely pace bias to the same degree. You’ll see runners likely to be held up in last heading the betting over something, with not too dissimilar form levels, that will be ridden prominently.

Chester is a pretty obvious one but there are loads of courses in the UK where front runners can be heavily favoured where in my opinion front runners are being allowed to go off at too big a price. So understanding these course biases is crucial for me and it’s obviously something I find Geegeez Gold helps me a lot with.

 

Chris: At the risk of following the herd, I’d have to agree with my colleagues here. Pace, tempo, race tactics, running styles, call it what you will, but that’s the thing I’ve found has helped the most over the last year since getting more switched on to it. Some tracks suit the front runner, some don’t. Some benefit those who get waited with.

I’d also contend that track layout/tightness of bends and proximity of the first and last bends to the starting/finishing post are often overlooked, as these can massively affect horses drawn closest to the bend. Those who follow F1 will know about racing lines and how approaching a bend from off the rail and almost “cutting the corner” can be the quickest way from a to b, even if it’s a slightly longer route.

How much time do you spend studying racing, outside of your Geegeez contributions, in an average week

 

Matt: It all depends on what’s happening. Life is busy (good busy, generally!) and I, like everyone else, have to work around that. But I’m able to get a really good feel for at least a few races in relatively short order using the race selection approach and then the Gold toolkit.

When I’m framing a Win 6 syndicate, I’ll spend a good couple of hours (or more) piecing everything together; if betting in a couple of races, it might only be 15-30 minutes.

Over the course of an average week, with say five betting days, I’d be in the form book six to eight hours, I guess.

A weird side note: I don’t generally bet ‘seriously’ on a Saturday. Most pro’s do, and I’m not a pro (though I have a profit expectation from betting, which I’ve realised most years), so fair enough; but I’ve always found it hyper competitive.

 

Sam: On average I’ll dedicate around 12 hours to form study and research. Obviously this varies depending on the racing, during big meetings such as Royal Ascot I’ll probably spend something closer to 3-4 hours each day but on poorer weeks I might only need an hour or less a day to get through the meetings.

My time spent on racing is split into two general parts. The first would be looking at future races, after the final decs are out, and the second part would be research into past races, looking for future winners and horses to add to my tracker. This second part usually takes a couple of hours a week during the early months of the flat season.

The vast majority of my bets are on flat racing and I tend to only get involved in the very biggest jumps races so I’m far less active/busy in the winter months, preferring to concentrate on the all weather action. This helps me switch off a bit from racing (as much as I can!) for a few months a year and keeps me fresh in time for the next flat season.

 

Chris: I'd probably say that I actually spend only about an hour a day max, because I do much of my study/research for the next day at the same time as I'm writing Racing Insights. RI is only a two/three minute read at best for most people, but I spend a good couple of hours pulling it together after I've considered other races/angles etc, so it's not an exact science. 

I struggle to compartmentalise how much time any specific task takes as I'm often doing two or three things at the same time, but I'd probably say I've got racecards & stats etc in front of my face for three hours a day, except Saturdays, when (a) I don't bet and (b) I tend to take most of the day off.

What is your go to report on Geegeez Gold?

 

Matt: I built them so it may be little surprise that I use most of them! I check Fast Finishers daily, and will always scan Trainer Snippets, 2yo 1st run, HC1 and Trainer Change. TJ Combo I’ll look at less than I used to, as typically I’ll get that intel from the jockey form icon on the racecard.

And then, of course, I’ll be all over my Report and QT Angles, which again I view within the racecard of the race I’m looking at. 

The inference from the above is that I’m usually a ‘bottom up’ form student, looking within a race for the snippets of interest to me. That’s as different from a ‘top down’ form student, who might go looking for a bet based on, for example, the best TJ combo record on a given day. 

There’s no right or wrong way, and I’ve flitted between the two approaches over time (and still do). But, more often than not, I’ll start with the race and work from there. Did I mention race selection is crucial? 😉

 

Sam: Anyone who has read any of my previous content might be expecting me to say the Hot Form Report - and it’s an excellent report - but most of my hot form research is done before we get to the final declarations and most of the runners I want to follow, because of hot form, are already in my tracker.

The report I get the most use out of is the Trainer Change Report. I’m never quite sure what to do when one of the horses I am tracking changes stable and this is when I’ll check the Trainer Change Report. I’m not only interested in win percentages, place percentages, PRB and so on but I also like to look at the list of qualifying runners, checking their odds, the field sizes they ran in, etc. I’ll use all of this data to make a judgement call on how likely I think they are to run to previous form - or even improve on it. These runners are often off the track for a while before making the stable debut so I’ll always check the trainer record after 60+ day breaks too.

Very recently this report played a crucial role in having a strong bet on Chillsea at Wolverhampton as Tom Ward had a strong record with runners making their debuts after a stable change.

 

Chris: Probably Horses for Courses and Head to Head from the horse form reports and Trainer Stats / TJC and trainer change from the trainer form reports.

H4C speaks for itself, some horses just go better at certain tracks. There's probably something else affecting the horse on that day, but some are suited by certain conditions. Head to head on its own doesn't tell me too much, but when you delve into that race and assess the margin of defeat, how they've both ran since and the change/swing in weight, it can be very helpful, even if only to rule a bet out.

Most of you have read my stat-based pieces, so my reasons for using Trainer Stats and TJC are pretty obvious, but the Trainer Change angle might not be. A fresh trainer/approach can invigorate a failing horse, but I'm not really just looking for horses that have switched yards. I want to see horses moving yards and then tackling races their previous handler(s) wouldn't have entered them in. 

For example a struggling two-mile hurdler moves to a yard with a good record with stayers, he's in the yard for a while and then comes back from a break to run over three miles. he's doing something he's never done, but for a yard successful in that type of race. It's a bit of a leap of faith sometimes, but you have to assume they'll have prepped well.

How do you determine when a bet is a bet when it comes to price?

 

Matt: This is tricky because for me it’s quite feel based. And, within that, there is no room for atom-splitting. That is, I need to feel like there’s a fair margin in my favour. If I see a horse with a combination of suitable pace setup, back class (i.e. has performed well against conditions historically but not necessarily recently), respectable trainer, and/or interesting change today (1st handicap, up/down in trip, equipment/surgery, trainer switch etc), then I want to know the price.

If I can only get a subset of those criteria boxes ticked, then I want more of a price to counter the decreased likelihood I perceive of the horse winning. 

Quite often it is true that if I find a horse with the combination of factors I’m seeking, in a race where many/most of its rivals are less obviously suited, the price is acceptable. This, I think, is because things like run style preference and back form are underrated in the early markets. Those components are typically subsumed into the price by off time but I’m not betting SP or even on the show generally, so that’s the opportunity to find my idea of value. And, of course, Geegeez Gold is set up specifically to isolate this type of runner!



Sam: This is a great question and is probably one of the key factors in separating the good punters from the bad.

I’ll often formulate my bet shortlists before I know what the prices are going to be, or when only William Hill have priced the races up and most will know how reliable those prices are! So there is always a bit of guesswork involved as to what price my intended bets will be. 

I’m drawn more to competitive handicaps so the vast majority of my shortlisted bets will be a fair enough price to back, but how do I decide that? I don’t price up the entire race as it would serve no purpose for me, I’m not looking to back or lay anything outside of my shortlisted bets. I will however have a rough price in my head for each runner and that obviously plays a huge roll in what I back and more importantly, how much I stake. The prices I assign to my shortlisted runners are based on how well handicapped I think a horse is, how likely it is to run its race and how deep the opposition is.

There are prices I expect a horse to be and prices I think they should be. These are related but not the same. I might think a runner should be around 6/1 but I expect to get around 10/1. I’d perhaps still have something on even if it was 4/1, but it would be a much smaller bet than intended. Sometimes these runners end up at say 14/1 and in that case I’d have a much bigger bet than expected. 

In most cases I expect the bookies to underestimate the horses I’m interested in so I’ll expect to get a bigger price than I think they should be. From there it’s rarely a case of having cut off points about backing them but more of a sliding scale depending on price. The shorter it is compared to what I think it should be, the smaller my stake, the bigger it is in comparison to my expectations, the bigger the stake. In most cases I’d stake more on a 10/1 shot than a 2/1 shot.



Chris: For me, a bet is a bet when the odds reflect an equal or better return compared with the chance I think the horse has of winning.

If I think the horse has a 1 in 3 chance of winning, then I want 9/4 or better. I’m not interested in strike rates, it has to be about profit/ROI and if you don’t get “value” on your bets, you’ll find it very hard to make profit.

Basically a coin toss is a 50/50 chance ie even money. The bookie will give you 10/11 at best, because he needs to make a profit, so conversely I want at least 11/10 on an evens chance.

I suppose the real question is how you decide what kind of chance you think a horse has and that’s where you then need to delve into recent results to see how the horse ran, how its opponents from previous races have fared and also how your horse has performed under similar race conditions previously. 

If a horse has recently completed a hat-trick on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton and then runs on Polytrack elsewhere, he’s likely to go off/be priced much shorter than he should be, unless he’s also proven on Poly. The market is often driven by the 5 or 6 results shown to the left of the name, but results with no context are worth very little.

What is your process for adding horses to your tracker?

 

Matt: Part 1: Identification - Exclusively from watching racing, or from sectional times. The key with tracker horses from watching races - or indeed from sectional times - is to look beyond the obvious. The one that flies home for second is missed by nobody; the one who made great late gains into a never nearer sixth and is bred for further is notebook/tracker material. Or the one to run well from the wrong side of the draw, or to only fade late after setting crazy fractions. 

Part 2: Documentation -  Adding a horse to a tracker requires context. Here’s a (convenient, of course) example from my own tracker of a horse that just won: 

30/12/21: HC1, close up before outpaced and then staying on well at the death, btn 2L. By Al Kazeem, a step up in trip should see him go close next time.

I usually add the trip/class/going it ran over. That race was over 9.5f at Wolves and today she won over 11f at Southwell; she needed every yard of the distance and will probably improve again for a further increase in trip.

Importantly, I would have let her beat me at shorter trips because I will only bet tracker horses in the circumstances I’ve identified. Obviously that doesn’t always pan out as I’d like, but it is very important discipline overall, and the key to tracker success.

Part 3: Housekeeping - Horses cannot and should not stay on the tracker indefinitely. At least every two to three months (depending on how much weeding your tracker needs - more entries equals more weeding!), have a look through and cull at least a small percentage. And beware the cliff horse: if you can’t bear to see it win unsupported, just cut your stakes back and understand where you are emotionally with the horse!!

 

Sam: Anyone who has read any of my content on Geegeez will know I’m a big fan of hot form and that is responsible for nearly all of the horses that are added to my tracker. 

Every couple of weeks, especially in the first four or five months of the flat season, I go through every single handicap race result. I normally try to stay two or three weeks behind to ensure a few runners have already come out of the races I am looking at. From there, using the brilliant Future Form tab on the race results pages on Geegeez, I either ignore the race if it’s not working out, bookmark the results page if there isn’t enough evidence yet about the strength of the form and if the race is working out I’ll add the most interesting runners to my tracker. 

I’ll revisit those bookmarks regularly and once there is enough subsequent form to make a judgement I’ll delete the bookmark, adding runners from the race if the form is working out or ignoring the race if the form hasn’t worked out. .

I probably only back about half of the runners on my tracker each day, if that. Some I’m extremely keen to be with next time and others I’m only interested in them in certain circumstances. They might be course specialists, runners that need a very strong pace to aim at, etc.



Chris: To be honest, I don’t use trackers as much as (a) you’d expect or (b) others do, but I’ll add horses to my tracker, if I feel they were “unlucky” in running or possibly didn’t get the best ride (yes, it happens). I’ll also add winners who just did enough to win, but looked like they had plenty in hand, but there’s no real science to that, it’s pure opinion formed from watching the races.

Once I start tracking a horse, I’ll only leave them there for a couple or three races, before revisiting them to see if they’re still worth keeping an eye on. Quite often, they’ll have won and have been weighted out of it by the handicapper or conversely, they’ve produced nothing and have gone backwards. With the latter, I tend to just remove them, with the former, I’ll often leave them on the tracker, but I’ll add a note about what mark/OR/class etc I’d like to see it drop back to.

How much importance do you place on watching races back when looking through form, as opposed to relying on in running comments?

 

Matt: I don’t have time to watch a lot of race replays, so it’s one of those things where I know - and advocate - that reviewing races will improve the selection process; but I, like everyone, have to find an optimum approach that fits with everything else I do. 

The advantage I have over many is that I do watch a lot of racing live whilst working, so I’m able to add to my tracker; and, furthermore, I review sectional times so I’m not just relying on the ol’ peepers, which can deceive us sometimes.

 

Sam: I wasn’t a massive race re watcher until a couple of years ago, preferring to go almost 100% off form lines and in running comments, however in recent years I have started to watch replays and I’ve found it has helped massively.

The main reason I watch a race replay is to make my own judgements about horses that suffered trouble in running, were having their first runs after a break or may benefit from a change in distance.

I find that in running comments often do a poor job of describing how much traffic some horses encounter and even more so how much running they have left at the finish. I can usually make a much better judgement after watching a reply.

A not so great run after a break can mean a lot of things, and I’m no expert at deducing how much a horse is likely to come on for the run, but you can usually get an idea about if it was just race fitness they were lacking or if they’ve lost their ability. If I’m taking a positive view about something it will usually be because the horse has traveled well until a furlong or so out but just weaked more than most in the final 200 yards. 

It’s a similar feeling with horses changing trips. Just because a horse finishes well it doesn’t mean they need to go up in trip (I’m normally looking for something that was outpaced a couple of furlongs out). Likewise a horse that fades doesn’t necessarily want to go down in trip. Replays are more useful than in running comments when sussing these out.



Chris: In-running comments can only give you a brief overview of one other person’s opinion and to take them at face value is akin to following the selections made by a newspaper “tipster” on a Saturday, where he’ll select a horse from every race. He hasn’t time to do that selection process properly, just as the in-running person doesn’t really have the time (and probably inclination) to do a thorough job. 

That said, I do look at in-running comments from a couple of sources initially to see if there’s a common suggestion as to why/how a horse ran like it did and then I’ll go back and look at the race for myself, with half an eye out for something I’m already expecting to happen.

How do you quantify what mark a horse can run to because of differing race conditions (ground, distance, etc)?

 

Matt: This is not really my thing because, basically, I am very bad at the ratings side of the game. I’ve always felt that, especially in exposed form handicaps (i.e. where they’ve all run a hundred times already), it is the horse best suited to conditions that makes the best bet. 

In other words, I’m trusting the handicapper to have pegged the approximate ability level of a horse by the time it has run, say, six or eight times; and thereafter I can use the evidence of the form book to see how it stacks up against the race class. 

I wouldn’t back the best horse in a race (in form terms) if it didn’t have the best fit from a draw, pace, ground, class, field size perspective. In fact, that sort of fella makes the market for the less obvious (ostensibly, at least) one I do want to back!

When it comes to such as novice races, nurseries and early season three-year-old handicaps, I defer to others, or to the MO of the trainer or any pedigree hints. Generally, I avoid those races because I don’t know enough - and there are too many capable of leaping forward from what they’ve shown so far.

 

Sam: When it comes to race conditions I tend to be a bit more black and white rather than trying to assign precise marks horses can win off. Instead I initially concentrate more on drawing up a shortlist of those that I think will run to form and are capable of being competitive. If conditions (going, distance, pace and draw mainly) are suitable they’ll probably run to form and my judgement on how competitive they’ll be is largely based on the strength of their recent form, by looking at the subsequent runs of those who finished around them previously (looking for hot or cold form).

If I need to decide which runner from a shortlist of two or three is the ‘one’, I still won’t necessarily assign a value of how well in, in terms of pounds, the runners might be. Instead I’ll usually consider how much improvement they might have if they are lightly raced (based on trainer, breeding, visuals) and also a lot may come down to how well positioned they should be based on how the race will be run. For more exposed runners I’ll consider previous marks they’ve run well off in similar conditions. That’s not to say if they’ve won off 88 and are rated 80 today I’ll assume they are 8lbs well in, more so that they should have some wiggle room off their current mark.

The one time I really do tend to assign a more precise ‘potential’ rating, rather than just working off ‘well handicapped in conditions’ v ‘not well handicapped in conditions’, is when evaluating some hot form lines. If the winner of a race has subsequently rated 16lbs higher and the 3rd has rated 12lbs higher, it’s often safe to assume the runner up can rate around 14lbs higher. There are a lot of other factors involved in evaluating that but it’s a simplistic example.

 

Chris: Ah, ratings! Personally, I find them quite unreliable : just look around, there are hundreds of ratings available for every race and they rarely agree with each other. Ratings tend not to take into consideration race conditions and those along with pace/draw are more important factors, as are horse/trainer/jockey form.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s a place for ratings as a guide, but as an example a horse running to a mark of 80 over 5f on good ground at Brighton probably won’t run to that mark over 6f on good to soft ground at Haydock, where good to soft generally means soft! So the horse may be rated at 80 under optimum conditions, but does he get 6f? can he handle mud? If his past form suggests he can do 6f on softer ground, then you could rate him at 82+ and so on.

Horses are given a mark based on what they’ve already done and so that weights for their next race can be allotted. Our job is to work out how they’ll actually run in the future under different race conditions and mentally adjust their official mark.


If you have any questions for the panel please post them below in the comments section.

 

 

 



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Sat TV Trends: 22nd May 2021

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in nine races across three venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 – MansionBet Watch And Bet Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m6f ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Carried 8-12 or more
7/7 – Drawn between 3-9 (inc)
7/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
7/7 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
7/7 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
6/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Won between 2-4 times before
5/7 – Rated between 95-102
5/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 94 in weight
4/7 – Aged 5 years-old
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/7 – Had run at the course before (2 won)
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Amanda Perrett
2/7 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/7 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

2.10 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Had won at least 3 times before
11/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Chris Wall
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


2.40 – Williamhill.com Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Trainers John Gosden and William Haggas have won the race in the past
Trainer Roger Varian is just 3 from 48 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.50 – William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 6 previous runnings
5/6 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
5/6 – Winning distance ½ length or less
4/6 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/6 – Didn’t win last time out
3/6 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/6 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
1/6 – Winning favourites
Duke Of Firenze won this race in 2019
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas has a 20% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is just 4 from 82 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 74 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 98 (4%) with his older horses at the track

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


1.55 – Casumo Horse Racing And Sports Betting Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 26% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 4 from 81 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 2 from 36 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

2.25 – Download The Casumo App Today Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Winners aged 4 or 5
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
6/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
5/6 – Unplaced favourites
5/6 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
5/6 – Rated between 90-98
4/6 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
2/6 – Trained by Mark Johnston
0/6 – Winning favourites
Lucky Deal won this race in 2019
Trainers William Haggas, Mark Johnston (2), Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race


3.00 – Join Casumo Today Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
15/17 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
10/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 7)
David Probert has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2


3.35 – Casumo Bet10Get10 Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – From stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/15 – Raced at York last time
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015


4.10 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

17/18 – Trained in the UK
16/18 – Had won over 5f before
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Raced within the last 2 months
11/18 – Placed third or better last time out
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
11/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Won their latest race
2/18 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 6 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Charles Hills (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 6/1
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 30th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

8.10 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 8/1 BOG 6th at 8/1 (In touch, pushed along over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £12,129 to the winner... 

Why?...

I'm going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today, starting with the racecard...

...as we bid a fond farewell to SotD with an in-form 4 yr old gelding hailing from an in-form yard with a good 2 year record on the Flat (and over middle distances) albeit from small sample sizes.

Andaleep has been first past the post in each of his last three starts (although subsequently disqualified on the first of the three), all over this 1m2f trip and he's 2 from 2 at 16-20 days rest and 2 from 2 under today's jockey William Carver.

Trainer Graeme McPherson is undoubtedly best known for his NH exploits, having sent out 796 NH runners since the start of 2016, whilst his record on the Flat over the same period stands at...

...and these include of relevance today...

  • 6 from 18 (33.3%) at 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 6 from 13 (46.2%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 5 from 7 (71.4%) at 16-20 dslr
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 5 (60%) over 1m2f
  • 2 from 4 (50%) with LTO winners
  • 2 from 4 (50%) in September
  • 2 from 2 (100%) for jockey William Carver
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) here at Nottingham...

...whilst those sent off at 9/4 to 11/1 over 1n2f to 1m6f some 16-20 days after last run have finished 121111 with the 83.3% strike rate yielding profits of 26.75pts (+445.8% ROI) at Industry SP or 30pts (+500% ROI) at Betfair SP, including 3 wins from 3 at today's trip...

...steering us gently towards... a final 1pt win bet on Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 2.00am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: STAT OF THE DAY WILL BE REPLACED BY THE NEW RACING INSIGHTS FEATURE FROM THIS EVENING.

On behalf of Matt and myself, I'd like to thank you all for your support and loyalty over the years, especially when things haven't always gone our way : I really do appreciate it. The lack of pressure from the readers have ensured that I could approach each new day without a monkey on my back and I hope I can count on the same leeway/latitude for our new venture.

Chris



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Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

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Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS



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