Posts

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.00 Ascot : The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up towards rear of mid-division, some headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms) - I also highlighted the stats regarding Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson in the 1.25 race, they finished 1st and 2nd at Evens and 14/1 respectively with the forecast paying 15/1.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Soft ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

More on this later, of course...

...but for now, my advice is... a 1pt win bet on Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet & Unibet at 5.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.00 Ascot : The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up towards rear of mid-division, some headway under pressure over 1f out, never on terms) - I also highlighted the stats regarding Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson in the 1.25 race, they finished 1st and 2nd at Evens and 14/1 respectively with the forecast paying 15/1.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Soft ground worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

More on this later, of course...

...but for now, my advice is... a 1pt win bet on Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by BetVictor, Coral, SkyBet & Unibet at 5.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.15 Haydock : Lightning Attack @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG  

...in the 14-runner, Class 1, Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £358691 to the winner... 

Why?

Much has already been written elsewhere about this horse & race by far more knowledgeable people than me, so I'll keep this fairly brief, as not to repeat too much information that you've already been given.

This 6 yr old gelding is in good nick (as always, it would seem!) having finished 141 in his three runs this season and with those wins coming on Good to Firm and also on Heavy, I'm not sure there's any ground he won't go on!

He won a Group 1 last time out, 6 weeks ago, when partnered by today's jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time and Oisin himself is in good form as I'll touch upon shortly.

The Tin Man has won 9 times (plus 2 places) from 19 starts to date and this includes 5 wins from 7 at 4/1 and shorter, 4 wins from 5 as a favourite, 3 wins (and 2 places) from 10 Group 1 efforts and 3 wins from 7 here at Ascot.

Now back to our jockey, Oisin Murphy who has enjoyed a pretty constant strike rate of around 20% over the last few months, actually winning 80 of 398 (20.1% SR) for 27.8pts (+7% ROI) over the last 90 days, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) for 16pts (+160%) at Group 1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 17.04pts (+213%) for trainer James Fanshawe.

And more generally, in Class 1 Flat races over the last 6 seasons, previous C1 winners with a career strike rate of 25% or higher are 37/174 (21.3% SR) for 167.6pts (+96.3% ROI) when running at the same class or up by 1 or 2 grades some 31-75 days after a top 3 finish LTO.

Stradivarius & Thomas Hobson also both fit this bill in the previous race, but with regards to our contest, those 174 runners are...

  • males : 27/119 (22.7%) for 162.7pts (+136.7%)
  • 31-45 days since last run : 24/108 (22.2%) for 162.5pts (+150.5%)
  • prizes of £100k or more : 20/87 (23%) for 164.1pts (+188.6%)
  • at Ascot : 13/63 (20.6%) for 20.2pts (+32.1%)
  • 12-17 runners in race : 12/45 (26.7%) for 177pts (+393.3%)
  • over 5-7 furlongs : 11/45 (24.4%) for 164.6pts (+365.7%)
  • and those with a 25-50% strike rate at the track : 7/25 (28%) for 11.3pts (+45.2%)

Of the above 7 criteria, Stradivarius hits numbers 1,3,4 and 7, whilst Thomas Hobson hits 1,2,3,4 & 7, but our pick today ticks all those boxes...

...so our advice is... a 1pt win bet on The Tin Man @ 7/2 BOG , as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.40 Brighton : Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Heavy ground worth £4787 to the winner...  

Why?

Two runs on soft/heavy so far for this 2 yr old gelding have resulted in him making the frame on both occasions, so he shouldn't be unduly worried by the conditions here today. The step up from 6f to 7f has looked like one he needed to make, whilst crucially those two placed finished I just mentioned were both at Class 2 and this is a Class 5 contest!

The drop in class, the extra furlong and his aptitude with cut in the ground suggested to me that he might well have been overpriced, although the market hasn't yet agreed with me, perhaps he's the right price after all?

The booking of David Nolan for the ride is a positive to me, because he's had a good season here in the North West , winning 5 of 17 races at Haydock (29.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 23.5pts (+138.3% ROI), all on male runners and including...

  • 4/16 (25%) for 22.34pts (+139.6%) in handicaps
  • no run on heavy, but 2/7 (28.6%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%) on soft
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.1pts (+369.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 for 1.17pts on a 2 yr old.

David also has a decent record on Richard Fahey horses, a record that improves dramatically based on today's race conditions, which I'll now attempt to highlight. We'll start with the Fahey/Nolan record since 2012 which stands at 70 from 559 (12.5% SR) for 125.8pts (+22.5% ROI) : a more than acceptable strike rate and an excellent return from blind backing gives us a good starting point to be more specific, as these 559 runners include...

  • over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs : 64/468 (13.7%) for 176.4pts (+37.7%)
  • at odds of 4/1 to 10/1 : 35/231 (15.2%) for 62.3pts (+27%)
  • 2yr olds are 21/191 (11%) for 150.8pts (+79%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/190 (13.2%) for 86.5pts (+45.5%)
  • and over the last 12 months : 13/55 (23.6%) for 35.1pts (+63.8%)

And using distance / odds / age / class / dates to define the selections then leads me back to one of my stored micro systems that I'm happy to share with you today, namely...

...Fahey + Nolan + 2 to 4 yr olds + Class 4 to 6 + 5f to 1m2f + 4/1 to 10/1 + 2015 to 2018 = 21/92 (22.8% SR) for 81.8pts (+89% ROI), which in terms of today's contest gives us...

  • males at 18/68 (26.5%) for 75pts (+110.3%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 16/59 (27.1%) for 80.65pts (+136.7%)
  • in handicaps : 12/46 (26.1%) for 53.9pts (+117.2%)
  • at 4/1 to 6/1 : 15/42 (35.7%) for 57.2pts (+136.2%) today's only variable parameter
  • over 7 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 42.6pts (+146.8%)
  • in October : 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.3pts (+166.4%)
  • and in Nursery races : 2/10 (20%) for 9.81pts (+98.1%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.35 Bath : Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in last, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, drew clear final furlong, won readily by two lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £3752 to the winner...  

Why?

A very much in-form 5 yr old mare who'll feel right at home here today if nothing else. Her last three races have all been here at Brighton, all over 6f, all on good to firm ground at increasingly better quality (C6, C5 and then C4 LTO), resulting in 3 wins!

Conditions are slightly different in that she's dropping back slightly in trip and racing on slightly slower ground and although there's no science/hard facts involved here, I think from a stamina point of view, the two could cancel each other out. What I do know is that she's dropping back in class today, which has to be a positive.

Lewis Edmunds rode her for the very first time last time out (31 days ago) and he retains the ride today, so there's another positive there and stats-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively short but hopefully sweet, as I focus on...

...trainer Chris Dwyer and specifically his Flat handicappers (logically) who are 30 from 190 (15.8% SR) for 55pts (+28.9% ROI) over the last three (inc. this one) seasons. Those are strong numbers from blindly betting all runners, but I know you wouldn't want to do that, so here are some ways you could reduce your outlay, whilst maintaining/improving the SR and/or ROI...

  • those who last raced 3 to 8 weeks ago are 16/84 (19.1%) for 64.5pts (+76.8%) you could, I suppose, stop here!
  • females are 15/82 (18.3%) for 48.8pts (+59.5%)
  • from August to October inclusive : 16/79 (20.3%) for 77.9pts (+98.6%)
  • this season alone : 13/67 (19.4%) for 44.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those dropping down a class are 9/37 (24.3%) for 62.5pts (+169%)
  • those ridden by Lewis Edmunds : 7/32 (21.9%) for 42.7pts (+133.4%)
  • LTO winners are 5/26 (19.2%) for 6.97pts (+26.8%)
  • in October only : 4/17 (23.5%) for 29.1pts (+171.3%)
  • and here at Brighton : 4/12 (33.3%) for 3.5pts (+29.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.50 Huntingdon : Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd going well after 3 out, soon poised to challenge, led next, clear when went right and not fluent last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4464 to the winner...  

Why?

A shorter priced pick than usual (but 2/1 BOG or better should still be worth taking) admittedly, but the statistical evidence is quite compelling about this 4 yr old filly who was a winner at Nottingham seven days ago staying on well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill who was riding her for the first time that day.

Her overall record of 2 wins, 3 places from 12 is neither good nor bad, I'd say, but of those 12 outings, she is...

  • 2+2/8 since moving to Ian Williams
  • 2+2/6 at Class 5
  • 2+1/6 going left handed
  • and 1/1 after a break of 7 days or less

Trainer Ian Williams has his string in great form right now with 16 winners from 74 (21.6% SR) for 37.3pts (+50.4% ROI) profit over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 15/61 (24.6%) for 47pts (+77%)
  • on the Flat : 10/44 (22.7%) for 29.4pts (+66.8%)
  • over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 3/15 920%) for 30.35pts (+202.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.7pts (+440.8%)
  • ridden by Kieran O'Neill : 2/9 (22.2%) for 5.46pts (+60.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft : 2/8 925%) for 24.23pts (+302.9%)

Ian's horses have tended to go well with Kieran in the saddle this year, winning 5 of 15 (33.3% SR) for 6.92pts (+46.1%), all on the Flat and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+68.6%) in Flat handicaps, including...

  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.05pts (+115%) on females
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.65pts (+432.5%) over 8.5 furlongs or shorter
  • 1/1 (100%) for 6.59pts (+659%) at Class 5
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.06pts (+206%) here at Bath

I stated earlier that Pure Shores won last time out a week ago and it's also worth noting that over the last five (inc. this one) Flat seasons, Ian's LTO winners are 31/117 (26.5% SR) for 43pts (+36.8% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today...

  • in hcps : 28/108 (25.9%) for 30.5pts (+28.2%)
  • 1-30 days since last run : 28/86 (32.6%) for 62.4pts (+72.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 28/73 (38.4%) for 45.7pts (+62.6%)
  • at a mile or shorter : 12/40 (30%) for 45.5pts (+113.7%)
  • 1-10 dslr : 13/24 (54.2%) for 32.1pts (+133.6%)
  • and at C5 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 15.8pts (+87.7%)

And seeing that Pure Shores ran just seven days ago, should we be concerned about a quick turnaround? The last six (inc this one) seasons figures say not. They show that Ian's Flat handicappers are 26/92 (28.3% SR) for 50.4pts (+54.8% ROI) within a week of their last outing and with today's race in mind, those 92 are...

  • 24/81 (29.6%) for 56.8pts (+70.1%) after running on the Flat LTO
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 57pts (+73.1%) as 4-8 yr olds
  • 23/52 (44.2%) for 39.3pts (+75.6%) sent off shorter than 7/1
  • 12/24 (50%) for 56.1pts (+233.6%) in September/October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.8pts (+118%) as LTO winners
  • 6/10 (60%) for 25.46pts (+254.6%) in October
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.39pts (+46.5%) with Kieran in the saddle.

And considering that it looks like Pure Shores will go off as favourite, it's interested to note that Kieran O'Neill has ridden 17 favourites this year so far, winning 11 times (64.7% SR) generating level stakes profits of 16.24pts (+95.5% ROI) with five of the six losers making the frame! Of the 17 rides this year...

  • hcps = 8/11 (72.7%) for 13.71pts (+124.6%)
  • Flat = 7/9 (77.8%) for 9.38pts (+104.2%)
  • and in Flat hcps? Just 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 7.99pts (+133.1%) with the only blot on the results page being a runner-up!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG, a price offered by several firms from 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. Bet365 were the first to show and actually offered 3/1 BOG for the best part of 90 minutes! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.45 Kempton : Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon towards rear, headway and switched right over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on, held by winner, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner...  

Why?

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has been rejuvenated by a switch of yard (to Stuart Edmonds) and a switch of code (chasing to hurdles) 2 runs ago, winning both times and therefore sending him here on a fairly quick-fire hat-trick bid.

He won a Class 5 over 3m at Uttoxeter 23 days ago and then stepped up in class and trip to win here over course and distance (C4, 3m1f) 11 days later / 12 days ago. So neither track nor trip should be his undoing here and with today's jockey, Ciaran Gethings having been on board for those last two runs/wins, he'll know how he's going to be ridden!

The horse is now...

  • 3/11 in September/October (2/3 over hurdles)
  • 3/8 at 8-15 days since last run (2 wins, 1 place from 3 over hurdles)
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 6 hee at Huntingdon (1/2 hrds)
  • 2/5 at 3m/3m1f (2/2 hrds)
  • 2/2 for Stuart Edmonds (both over hurdles)
  • 2/2 under Ciaran Gethings (both over hurdles)
  • and 1 from 1 over C&D (from LTO)

Stuart Edmonds only had his first runner on 29th January 2015 (my wife's 44th birthday for those wanting an irrelevant stat) and although it took him 3 months and 20 races to land his first winner, backing all his runners has proved to be a profitable venture. To date he is 57 from 367 (15.5% SR) for 9.33pts (+2.54% ROI) and if we just focus on his NH runners for relevance today, those are 55/336 (16.4% SR) for 17.72pts (+5.27% ROI), including...

  • at 11-45 days since last run : 41/210 (19.5%) for 57pts (+27.1%)
  • on Good ground : 24/138 (17.4%) for 52.2pts (+37.8%)
  • over trips of 2m7f to 3m3f : 13/92 (14.1%) for 27.3pts (+29.7%)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/56 (19.6%) for 55.1pts (+98.3%)
  • LTO winners are 18/51 (35.3%) for 31pts (+60.9%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 6/22 (27.3%) for 5.93pts (+26.9%)

More generally (and essentially less trainer-centric), in UK handicap hurdle races since the start of 2013, horses who won over C&D LTO are 149/653 (22.8% SR) for 100.1pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, which on its own is a good angel, but possibly throws up too many bets for some of you, so to reduce the number of transactions, we could consider...

  • males at 128/536 (23.9%) for 109.9pts (+20.5%)
  • within 25 of that LTO C&D run/win : 94/382 (24.6%) for 80.3pts (+21%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 82/338 (24.3%) for 80.3pts (+23.8%)
  • on Good ground, its 67/265 (25.3%) for 87.9pts (+33.2%)
  • in October/November : 21/86 (24.4%) for 29.1pts (+33.8%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 3/15 (20%) for 3.06pts (+20.4%)

If you wanted a composite angle for about a quarter of the original dataset, a logical approach could be males running at the same class as an LTO win in the past 25 days, yielding 44 winners from 165 (26.7% SR) and 62.6pts profit at an ROI of 37.9%.

And finally, it's worth (IMO anyway!) noting that in UK Class 4 handicap hurdles over 2m6f to 3m2f, males who won a hcp hrd LTO are 96/436 (22% SR) for 46.7pts (+10.7% ROI) with 7 yr olds winning 21 of 75 (28%) for 34.1pts (+45.4%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by 10Bet, Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Monday evening and which was still widely available at 9.00am today.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 York : Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, headway in centre chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on into 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Well, we've got a 4 yr old filly who has been running consistently well over the last 6 months, making the first three in six of her seven starts in that period and won last time out at Lingfield 30 days ago.

That was also a Class 4, 6 furlong A/W handicap where she was ridden by today's jockey Irineu Goncalves, so conditions shouldn't be entirely alien to her today.

Generally speaking, Chris Dwyer's A/W runners who won LTO also on the A/W are worth at least a second glance, since they're 23 from 85 (27.1% SR) since the start of 2013. Sadly, they don't quite make a profit from blind backing (not that I'd advocate that anyway) : they've actually lost 1.03pts at Betfair SP.

However, this is such a small loss that they remain of serious interest because (a) any blind approach with an SR of 25% or higher is a good starting point and (b) they'd be profitable at early BOG odds like we take, especially as those eventually sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 22/58 (39.3% SR) for 20.3pts profit (+36.3% ROI).

So, the basic premise here is to follow Chris Dwyer's shorter priced LTO winners.

That approach brought Rose Berry into my thinking and also at the back of my mind I has this vague memory that one of Mr Dwyer's successful angles was with lower grade handicappers on Polytrack, so I did a bit of data mining and discovered that since the start of 2016, his Class 4 to 7 Polytrack handicappers have won 28 of 137 races (20.4% SR) for profits of 166.4pts at an ROI of 121.4%, which are very decent figures indeed.

But we need to see how those numbers would fit into today's contest and what I found was that of the 28/137 stat...

  • over trips of a mile and shorter : 25/121 (20.7%) for 172.9pts (+142.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 27/105 (25.7%) for 196.1pts (+186.8%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 22/61 (36.1%) for 33.1pts (+54.3%) further proof that the market tends to get the Dwyer horses right.
  • in September / October : 8/33 (24.2%) for 62pts (+188%)
  • Fav / jt fav / co-fav (all a possibility here today) : 13/23 (56.5%) for 17.26pts (+75%)
  • LTO winners : 10/20 (50%) for 15.22pts (+76.1%)
  • and those ridden by Irineu Goncalves are 3/5 960%) for 130.75pts (+261.5%)

...all steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG , a price widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday evening ans was still there at 9.00am on Monday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 York : Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, headway in centre chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on into 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, we've got a 4 yr old filly who has been running consistently well over the last 6 months, making the first three in six of her seven starts in that period and won last time out at Lingfield 30 days ago.

That was also a Class 4, 6 furlong A/W handicap where she was ridden by today's jockey Irineu Goncalves, so conditions shouldn't be entirely alien to her today.

Generally speaking, Chris Dwyer's A/W runners who won LTO also on the A/W are worth at least a second glance, since they're 23 from 85 (27.1% SR) since the start of 2013. Sadly, they don't quite make a profit from blind backing (not that I'd advocate that anyway) : they've actually lost 1.03pts at Betfair SP.

However, this is such a small loss that they remain of serious interest because (a) any blind approach with an SR of 25% or higher is a good starting point and (b) they'd be profitable at early BOG odds like we take, especially as those eventually sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 22/58 (39.3% SR) for 20.3pts profit (+36.3% ROI).

So, the basic premise here is to follow Chris Dwyer's shorter priced LTO winners.

That approach brought Rose Berry into my thinking and also at the back of my mind I has this vague memory that one of Mr Dwyer's successful angles was with lower grade handicappers on Polytrack, so I did a bit of data mining and discovered that since the start of 2016, his Class 4 to 7 Polytrack handicappers have won 28 of 137 races (20.4% SR) for profits of 166.4pts at an ROI of 121.4%, which are very decent figures indeed.

But we need to see how those numbers would fit into today's contest and what I found was that of the 28/137 stat...

  • over trips of a mile and shorter : 25/121 (20.7%) for 172.9pts (+142.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 27/105 (25.7%) for 196.1pts (+186.8%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 22/61 (36.1%) for 33.1pts (+54.3%) further proof that the market tends to get the Dwyer horses right.
  • in September / October : 8/33 (24.2%) for 62pts (+188%)
  • Fav / jt fav / co-fav (all a possibility here today) : 13/23 (56.5%) for 17.26pts (+75%)
  • LTO winners : 10/20 (50%) for 15.22pts (+76.1%)
  • and those ridden by Irineu Goncalves are 3/5 960%) for 130.75pts (+261.5%)

...all steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG , a price widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday evening ans was still there at 9.00am on Monday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, rallied and every chance inside final furlong, edged left and ran on, but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.40 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG  

...in the 11-runner, Listed Rockingham Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Soft/Good to Soft in places ground worth £28355 to the winner... 

Why?

Apologies this morning for the lateness of adding the write-up. We lost power here just after 9pm Friday night and it has only came back on 13 hrs later. As a result the following is a bit more note-form / brief than usual, but rest assured, the pick was made via the usual process : all you're missing is some extra "waffle/padding" from me...

So, we've a 2yr old colt with 3 wins and a place from 5 starts on turf (13511) with a 3 from 3 record on Good to Soft/Soft/Heavy. He's 1 from 1 in Listed company too, also gained on heavy ground (at Ayr LTO 22 days ago), so he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina today.

His yard (trained by Ralph Beckett) is in great form right now with a 30 day record of 18 winners from 71 (25.4% SR) rising to 9/32 (28.1%) over the past fortnight, whilst the last 7 days' tally is an excellent 5 from 16 (31.25%).

Ralph's runners are also 113/690 (16.4% SR) for 232.4pts (+33.7% ROI) over a 6f trip since 2009.

His LTO winners are 77/385 (20%) for 24.7pts (+6.4%) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter since 2013, with those coming off a break of 6 to 60 days winning 65 of 296 (22%) for 33.2pts (+11.2%)

And here at York, Ralph's runners are 10/63 (15.9% SR) for 70.3pts (+111.5% ROI) over the last four seasons, including...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 7/48 (14.6%) for 67.4pts (+140.4%)
  • non-handicaps : 4/22 (18.2%) for 54.3pts (+247%)
  • at Class 1 : 3/16 (18.75%) for 49.8pts (+311.5%)
  • sub-4/1 runners are 5/12 (41.7%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%)
  • and in Listed races : 2/10 (20%) for 51.48pts (+514.8%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG, a price available from a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.15 Bangor : Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG UR at 9/4 (Took keen hold, led, going well enough before blundered and unseated rider at 4th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Heritage Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £74700 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old colt has finished 41111 so far, including 4/4 under today's jockey Donnacha O'Brien, 3/4 on the Flat, 2/2 at 1m4f and 2/2 in handicaps. He's won on Good, Soft and A/W too so the ground shouldn't be an issue either. This is a tougher task than he's faced so far but (a) that's why were not facing really short odds and (b) I think he has plenty more in his locker.

Over the last 14 days...

  • Trainer Aidan (AP) O'Brien is 16/52 (30.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+20.8% ROI)
  • Jockey Donnacha is 8/28 (28.6%) for 1.91pts (+6.81%)
  • And together they are 6/17 (35.3%) for 6.56pts (+38.6%)

And here on the Rowley over the last four seasons...

  • AP is 27/113 (23.9%) for 59.9pts (+53%)
  • Donnacha is 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.54pts (+104.5%)
  • And together : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.54pts (+172.7%)

And from AP's 27 from 113 record here quoted above...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 17/64 (26.6%) for 65.8pts (+102.8%)
  • on Good to Firm : 16/50 (32%) for 74.9pts (+149.8%)
  • LTO winners : 14/44 (31.8%) for 16.9pts (+38.4%)
  • 3 yr olds : 9/45 920%) for 11.6pts (+25.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 9.66pts (+138%)

And, since the start of 2015, Irish horses (ie those with IRE after their name) are 131/998 (13.1% SR) for 131.3pts (+13.2% ROI) in UK Flat/AW handicaps after having run in Ireland last time out, from which...

  • those whose yard run most of their races in Leinster, Ireland are 88/531 (16.6%) for 165.7pts (+31.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/202 (17.8%) for 76pts (+37.6%)
  • over a 1m4f trip : 16/81 (19.75%) for 84.6pts (+104.5%)

...and from the above, there's a nice little micro (or nugget as someone on the Gold forum very kindly described these supplementary angles) whereby in this 2015-18 timeframe, those whose yard run most of their races in Leinster, Ireland and are now racing over 7.5 to 12 furlongs, within 25 days of their last run are 33/129 (25.6% SR) for 133.9pts (+103.8% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 for 33.9pts over the last five weeks!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Astronomer @ 9/2 BOG, a price available from BetVictor, BlackType, Coral & Ladbrokes at 4.50pm on Thursday evening, a price still widely available at 8.45am Friday when I started typing my notes up.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Ludlow : Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Led until 3rd, chased leader, jumped into lead 5th, went left 3 out 2 out and last, hung left and headed run-in, no extra in 3rd)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding brings the best recent form to the table of all 8 runners in this contest, having won 2 of his last 3 (121) outings with wins here at Bangor over 2m3.5f and at Uttoxeter last time out (18 days ago) over 3 miles sandwiching a defeat by just a neck over 3m2.5f at Sedgefield, so the trip shouldn't be a concern today.

All three of those races were on Good or Good to Soft ground and all were after 17 days rest from his previous run, so he's getting similar conditions here today. His yard is in good nick right now with 5 winners from 22 (22.7% SR) over the last fortnight generating 270.1pts profit at an ROI of 1227.7%, admittedly skewed by a 100/1 winner that paid 294/1 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't affect the strike rate!

In fact, his trainer Donald McCain is based just 12 miles away from Bangor over the border in Cheshire and has been a regualr and successful visitor to this track in recent years, clocking up 109 winners from 514 runners (21.2% SR) since the start of 2011. Had you been lucky enough to stick £20 on each of them , you'd now have a profit of £3916, equating to a 38.1% return on your investment!

Of these 514 runners, his hurdlers have won 78 of 327 (23.9% SR) for 237pts (+72.5% ROI), so it'd be wiser to focus on those and with that and today's race in mind, here's just a dozen ways that Donald has got his 78 hurdle wins here at Bangor...

  1. Males are 71/289 (24.6%) for 216.9pts (+75%)
  2. Class 4 runners are 54/213 (25.4%) for 115.7pts (+54.3%)
  3. 5/6 yr olds are 47/183 (25.7%) for 176.3pts (+96.3%)
  4. Novice hurdlers are 42/136 (30.9%) for 124pts (+91.2%)
  5. Those last seen 6-25 days earlier are 41/119 (34.5%) for 169.2pts (+142.2%)
  6. Good ground has yielded 36/152 (23.7%) for 78.9pts (+51.9%)
  7. Handicappers are 31/154 (20.1%) for 103.1pts (+67%)
  8. LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 21.1pts (+42.2%)
  9. Those stepping up a class are 13/69 (18.8%) for 80.5pts (+116.7%)
  10. Over this 2m7f course and distance : 9/26 (34.6%) for 30.1pts (+115.7%)
  11. Novice handicap hurdlers are 6/18 (33.3%) for 43.5pts (+241.5%)
  12. And those ridden by today's jockey, Lorcan Murtagh are 3 from 10 (30%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%)

You can, of course, mix and match the above logical angles to make your own micro-systems, but that does dilute the sample size the more angles you add. If you wanted a simple approach for just a small number of bets per year, then 5 yr old male Class 4 Novice Hurdlers are 16/44 (36.4% SR) for 89.7pts (+204% ROI) with those retuning from a short 6 to 25 day absence winning 8 of 23 (34.8%) for 62.1pts (+270.2%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Handy Hollow @ 3/1 BOG, a price available from Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook at 5.30pm on Wednesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Catterick : Chitra @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held near finish by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £6563 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding's record of 3 wins and a place from 22 starts in handicap hurdle contests isn't admittedly the best, but he did win this contest last year off the same mark (108) as this year under the same jockey, Bridget Andrews, who claims a 3lb allowance. And like last year he reappears 12 days after a defeat at Worcester on softer ground than this contest.

Whilst that 3+1/22 record isn't amazing, it does look better under today's conditions, where he is...

  • 3+1 from 12 off a mark of 101 to 110
  • 2+ 1 from 10 over this 2m trip
  • 2 from 5 on good to firm ground
  • 2 from 5 racing 8 to 12 days after his last run
  • 1 from 4 at Ludlow
  • 1 from 4 over course and distance

He's trainer Dan Skelton's only runner at this track today and since 2014, Dan's Class 4 hurdlers have won 16 of 54 (29.6% SR) for 13.7pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Ludlow and these include...

  • males at 12/41 (29.3%) for 13.66pts (+33.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 16/39 (41%) for 28.7pts (+73.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 10/36 (27.8%) for 8.06pts (+22.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 13/34 (38.2%) for 23.61pts (+69.5%)
  • in handicaps : 5/15 (3.3%) for 8.34pts (+55.6%)
  • off a mark of 105-115 : 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.47pts (+168.4%)
  • runner-up LTO : 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.05pts (+86.4%)
  • in October : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.29pts (+104.8%)
  • and his only runner at the track : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.36pts (+378.7%)

And from the above...males racing over 1m7.5f/2m at odds of 10/1 and shorter some 11-45 days after their last run are 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+149.4% ROI) including Excellent Team's win in this race last year.

I do like to look for in-form course and distance winners, because since the start of 2013 in handicap hurdles, horses with the little CD logo next to their name who either won or lost by no more than 2 lengths LTO are 254 from 1126 (22.6% SR) for 220.2pts (+19.6% ROI), from which of note today...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 184/840 (21.9%) for 178.2pts (+21.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 39/152 (25.7%) for 85.3pts (+56.1%)
  • runners-up 11-25 days earlier are 17/63 (27%) for 44.4pts (+70.4%)
  • here at Ludlow : 10/27 (37%) for 37.1pts (+137.3%)
  • and at Ludlow 11-20 days after their last run : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.05pts (+122.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG, a price widely available from 6.30pm on Tuesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.20 Stratford : Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Mid-division, headway 2 out, soon chasing leaders, kept on same pace approaching last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chitra @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 6, Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Good ground, worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

This 2yr old filly has finished 121 in Nursery races so far, all over 6f and all at Class 6, including landing a big-field (19 ran!) contest LTO at relatively nearby Redcar 13 days ago. She was better than the half length margin of victory would suggest that day, as he was prominent throughout and quickly asserted control with a furlong to run, looking like she had plenty in hand.

She's the only distance winner in this field whose career tally to date stands at just 3 wins from 65, of which she is 2 from 6!

Her trainer Daniel Kubler sends her here today in a bid to improve an already decent record with LTO winners who are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 8.78pts (+48.8% ROI) when sent off in handicap races at odds of 5/1 and shorter over the last four years. Of those 18, Class 6 runners are 3 from 7 and jockey Tony Hamilton is 1 from 2, but more relevant today are the following from those 18 LTO winners...

  • Daniel's only runner at the track : 6/15 (40%) for 8.38pts (+55.8%)
  • less than 3 weeks rest : 6/15 (40%) for 6.24pts (+41.6%)
  • in fields of 7-12 runners : 7/13 (53.8%) for 13.78pts (+106%)
  • same trip as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 7.76pts (+77.6%)
  • same class as LTO win : 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%)
  • and at the same class and trip as the LTO win : 3/5 (60%) for 8.48pts (+169.6%)

Now, Daniel also has just one runner at Brighton today, who is another LTO winner, also priced shorter than 5/1 in a Class 6 handicap. She also runs in a 12-runner field at the same class (and track, too) as her last win and with Daniel having a decent record at Brighton, I'd not dissuade you from a small punt on Nyala at 4/1 BOG in the 4.35 race...

...but my main selection is... a 1pt win bet on Chitra @ 5/1 BOG, a price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.50 Fontwell : Notnow Seamus @ 10/3 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn by the Trainer at 14:14, because the going was changed to Good to Soft from Good / Good to Firm in places)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Good ground, worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

This 5 yr old gelding has 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings so far, including 2+3 from 5 over hurdles. He's 3+1 from 5 on good ground, 2+2 from 5 under jockey Richard Johnson and 2+1 from 3 in fields of 7-9 runners, so conditions should be fine for him here.

This is his first outing in just over 20 weeks (143 days to be precise), but whilst that can be a concern for some horses, he did make the frame on this very date last year off a break of 182 days and then in April of this year won after a 126 day absence, so my fears on that score are allayed somewhat.

His trainer Philip Hobbs has had a quiet late summer/early autumn thus far, sending out just 19 runners in the last 60 days but with 7 winners (36.8% SR) in that period and a 30-day record of 4 from 12 (33.3%), I think the yard is just getting to ramp up for the season proper. His record here at Stratford is decent enough too, with 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) yielding punter profits of 40.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest in mind, those 83 runners are...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 53pts (+89.9%) in handicaps
  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 15.9pts (+39.7%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 42.3pts (+128.2%) at Class 3
  • and 6/28 (21.45) for 6.6pts (+23.5%) over hurdles

...whilst from the above : Hobbs + Johnson + Class 3 handicap = 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 18.2pts (+140.1% ROI).

That 13/40 trainer/jockey stat above is unsurprising as more generally the partnership is 32 from 146 (21.9% SR) for 33.4pts (+22.9% ROI) in Class 3 handicap hurdles here in the UK since the start of 2012.

And finally, I'd like to refer back to this horse coming off a break of just over 20 weeks. I already said he'd run well previously after a lay-off, but it's worth noting that this yard's runners do very well when the market money is down on one coming back from a lay off. In numerical terms, I'm telling you that since the start of 2010, Philip Hobbs' runners priced at 11/8 to 9/2 returning from an absence of 4 to 8 months are 54 from 167 (32.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.9pts (+25.7% ROI) and once again with this race in mind, this stat includes...

  • male runners at 52/153 (34%) for 50pts (+32.7%)
  • in the August-January half-year : 48/141 (34%) for 49.6pts (+35.2%)
  • with RJ in the saddle : 37/109 (34%) for 37.7pts (+34.6%)
  • over hurdles : 29/84 (34.5%) for 32.4pts (+38.6%)
  • in handicaps : 29/83 (34.9%) for 31.2pts (+37.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 17/46 (37%) for 17.3pts (+37.5%)
  • and over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f : 6/11 (54.5%) for 15.43pts (+140.3%)

And those pretty consistent numbers can be combined to make several profitable angles. of course, each time you add a layer, you dilute the sample size but if you wanted, you could go with...RJ on male hcp hurdlers from Aug-Jan for 10 wins from 22 (45.5% SR) and 18.33pts (+83.3% ROI) profit from which those racing over trips of 2m6½f to 2m7f are 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Who's My Jockey @ 7/2 BOG  , a price widely available at 7.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Stratford

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P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!