Posts

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.35 Ffos Las : Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, lost place 5 out, outpaced next, rallied after last, took modest 3rd near finish, no chance with front pair )

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £6663 to the winner...

Why?...

More about this later...

...but first... a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.35 Ffos Las : Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Tracked leaders, lost place 5 out, outpaced next, rallied after last, took modest 3rd near finish, no chance with front pair )

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £6663 to the winner...

Why?...

More about this later...

...but first... a 1pt win bet on Music Seeker @ 11/4 BOG which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

8.40 Worcester : Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced after 3 out, never able to challenge, weakened last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.35 Ffos Las:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?...

Trainer Peter Bowen's chasers are 31/101 (30.7% SR) for 38.7pts (+38.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of evens to 13/2 here at Ffos Las since 2o12 and these include...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 29/89 (32.6%) for 41pts (+46%)
  • at 4 to 60 days since last run : 27/78 (34.6%) for 47.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 20/65 (30.8%) for 29.6pts (+45.5%)
  • ridden by Sean Bowen : 16/44 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+58.2%)
  • in May : 7/16 (43.75%) for 11.2pts (+69.9%)
  • 6 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 6.85pts (+52.7%)

...and when Sean Bowen has ridden a Class 4 runner over 2m to 3m, 4 to 60 after the horse last ran = 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 15pts at an ROI of 83.2%.

More generally in "Summer Jumps" ie handicap chases during May to September, Peter Bowen has 33 winners from 148 (22.3% SR) for profits of 96.6pts (+65.3% ROI) since the start of May 2017, from which...

  • Sean Bowen is 26/99 (26.3%) for 54.5pts (+55%)
  • those turned out 11-45 days after their last run are 23/91 (25.3%) for 51.2pts (+56.2%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 18/64 (28.1%) for 94.4pts (+147.6%)

...whilst Sean Bowen on Class 4 runners, 11-45 days after their last run = 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 23.5pts (+94% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.40 Sandown : Greenside @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn due to change in going)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, this Emma Lavelle-trained 6 yr old mare has already won twice and placed once from just five starts and comes here off the back of winning a Class 4 hurdle at Chepstow last time out, 32 days ago.

In addition to her form displayed so far, she also cropped on several of my stored angles, here are just a handful of them...

1. In UK handicap hurdles since 2013, horses who won a Novice hurdle LTO 11-90 days earlier are 220/1200 (18.3% SR) for 109.2pts (+9.1% ROI), including...

  • Class 3/4 : 151/730 (20.7%) for 100.1pts (+13.7%)
  • females : 42/223 (18.8%) for 47.5pts (+21.3%)
  • and Class 4 females are 18/97 (18.6%) for 13.54pts (+14%)

2. Emma Lavelle + Class 4/5 hurdlers + 2016-19 = 38/240 (15.8% SR) for 37.9pts (+15.8% ROI), from which...

  • at 2m6f and shorter : 34/201 (16.9%) for 55.1pts (+27.4%)
  • in handicaps : 16/89 (18%) for 17.4pts (+19.5%)
  • in hcps @ 2m6f and shorter : 14/60 (23.3%) for 32.6pts (+54.3%)

3. Emma's LTO winners sent off at 2/1 to 17/2 in 2016-19, some 21-60 days after that win are 20/62 (32.3% SR) for 51.8pts (+84.9% ROI), amongst which...

  • hurdlers : 16/33 (48.5%) for 64.2pts (+194.5%)
  • at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 16/34 (47.1%) for 56.7pts (+166.7%)
  • hurdlers at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 14/21 (66.7%) for 62.6pts (+297.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 10/25 (40%) for 39.3pts (+157.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 3/5 (60%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

4. Here at Worcester, Emma's runners are 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+60.8% ROI) since 2016 and these include...

  • at 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115%)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.1pts (+108.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 25.5pts (+141.9%)
  • and C4 hcps @ 5/1 and shorter = 3/4 (75%) for 11.25pts (+281.1%)

5. And finally for today, Emma's handicap hurdle debutants sent off at 2/1 to 11/1 since 2016 are 8/25 (32% SR) for 25pts (+100% ROI), from which...

  • at 2m3f to 2m5.5f : 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.86pts (+175.7%)
  • 6 yr olds : 6/20 930%) for 15.24pts (+76.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 20.65pts (+206.5%)
  • females : 3/3 (100%) for 21.72pts (+724%)
  • at Worcester : 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.45 Yarmouth : Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Greenside @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding is a former Class 2 winner and comes here off the back of a pretty comfortable 2 lengths win at Windsor 17 days ago under today's jockey Harry Bentley in a similar Class 3, 1m handicap on Good ground to today's contest.

With regards to today's race, his career stats include...

  • 5 wins, 2 places from 14 over a mile (4w, 2pl from 10 on turf)
  • 3 from 8 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 4 from 7 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in May/June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Sandown
  • and 1 from 2 on Good ground.

As for the race itself, the race trends for the last 22 runnings (since 1997) of the Whitsun Cup include the following of relevance today...

  • all 22 winners had raced 0-3 times that season prior to the race
  • 17 had a top 4 finish LTO
  • 16 had raced in the previous 30 days
  • 11 were sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 10 were rated (OR) 90-94
  • 10 were favourites
  • and 8 came out of stalls 3 or 4

And finally for today, a quick look at how LTO winners trained by Henry Candy fared next time out tells me that those sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 in Flat handicaps are 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 14.7pts (+36.7% ROI) since 2015 of these include of note today...

  • in races worth £3k to £10k : 10/32 (31.25%) for 12.44pts (+38.9%)
  • in May/June : 5/10 (50%) for 13.59pts (+135.9%)
  • those who raced/won 15-20 days earlier : 5/10 (50%) for 12.44pts (+124.4%)
  • here at Sandown : 2/5 (40%) for 2.88pts (+57.6%)
  • and those ridden by Harry Bentley are 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.32pts (+277.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Greenside @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Sky, Unibet, Hills & BlackType (last two go BOG on raceday) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Brighton : Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Seven of today's ten runners are returning from breaks of six months or more and with quick ground expected, some of them might well get found out for fitness here. I've taken a price that looked (IMO at least) to represent excellent value in taking on a short-priced (as low as 13/8 when I made my selection) favourite who steps up in both trip and class for a handicap debut off a mark (81) that might be on the high side, especially after 10 months away from the track.

Our boy has been around the block a few times and it's admittedly been a while since he last won and he's clearly not the force of old, but we should remember that was a winner at Class 2 off a mark of 91 last year and now runs off a career low mark. He is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 24.1pts (+114.8% ROI) over 7f on the Flat including 3 from 5 (60%) for 15.94pts (+318.8%) in cheekpieces and hails from a yard with a decent record at this venue...

...as Stuart Williams-trained handicappers sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 15 from 57 (26.3% SR) for 24.6pts (+43.1% ROI) over the past five seasons here at Yarmouth, from which...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 22.2pts (+52.8%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 are 10/31 (32.3%) for 31.3pts (+100.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 with a run in the previous 25 days are 8/22 (36.4%) for 26.2pts (+119%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.3pts (+180.6%) : all rated 70-85
  • and at Class 4 with a run in the previous 25 days : 5/10 (50%) for 22.33pts (+223.3%) : all rated 70-85

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Tuesday and Bet365 were a half point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Carlisle : Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Soon led, driven and headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 4th inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old is making just a fifth start today, with little/no data to work from, so I'll focus on jockey and trainer, who both do very well at this quirky venue.

We'll start with our jockey, Adam Kirby, whose record here over the last four (and a bit, ie since April 2015) seasons stands at 23 winners from 79 (29.1% SR) generating 45.4pts of level stakes profit at an excellent ROI of some 57.5% and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 6 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+95.1%)
  • over 7f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.9pts (+85.7%)
  • and in May : 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.4pts (+85.7%)...

...whilst trainer Clive Cox hasn't been as active as Adam here in recent years but actually has better figures than the jockey with 10 winners from 29 (34.5% SR) producing 17.6pts at an ROI of 60.5% backed blindly since 2014, from which...

  • those sent off at 8/1 or shorter are 10/23 (43.5%) for 23.6pts (+102.6%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 8/17 (47.1%) for 17.06pts (+100.3%)
  • on ground deemed quicker than Good : 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.11pts (+94.1%)
  • runners with less than 3 weeks rest are 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.04pts (+164%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.83pts (+110.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.4pts (+42.5%)
  • and in May : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.06pts (+129.5%)

...and from the above... Cox + Kirby + Brighton + Good to Firm = 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 7.62pts (+84.7% ROI), including 3 from 6 with runners who raced less than 25 days earlier, 2 from 4 at Class 6, 1 from 2 over the 7f C&D and 1 from 1 in May...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG which available from BetVictor & Hills (latter non-BOG until midnight) at 6.o5pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn't actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren't the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today's conditions, as...

  • All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
  • 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact...in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including...

  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
  • and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O'Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days...

...whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn't really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I'm not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I'm not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I'll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday's 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom's chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that...

  • those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
  • those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
  • those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
  • over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
  • and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

...whilst based upon the above...during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don't go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn't actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren't the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today's conditions, as...

  • All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
  • 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact...in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including...

  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
  • and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O'Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days...

...whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn't really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I'm not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I'm not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I'll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday's 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom's chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that...

  • those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
  • those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
  • those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
  • over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
  • and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

...whilst based upon the above...during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don't go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.45 Newmarket : Gumball  @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 6/5 (Led, pushed along and headed 3f out, tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3398 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner last time out just 7 days when a pretty comfortable victor over course and distance in this grade a week ago under today's jockey Rowan Scott, who once again claims 3lbs.

And now, the numbers...

1. This runner has 2 wins and a place from 8 runs to date and they include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 at 6f
  • 1 win, 1 place here at Thirsk
  • 1 from 1 under Scott Rowan

2. Trainer Nigel Tinkler's LTO winners are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 26.6pts (+33.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps since 2009, when turned back out after less than three week's rest and these include...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 22.84pts (+78.8%) over the last two seasons
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 42pts (+174.9%) over 6f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 17.9pts (+179%) in May
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.08pts (+202%)

3. Whilst Nigel's record here at Thirsk in Flat handicaps since the start of 2017 season stands at 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 20.57pts (+114.3% ROI) with horses sent off shorter than 12/1, from which...

  • over this 6f C&D : 5/15 (33.3%) for 19.8pts (+132%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.32pts (+112%)
  • at Class 6 : 4/10 (40%) for 19.62pts (+196.2%)
  • at 5/1 and shorter : 5/7 (71.4%) for 17.31pts (+247.3%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 15.45pts (+386.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 6.94pts (+347%)

4. And finally, since 2010 in Class 6 Flat handicaps, horses who won at the same class, track and trip LTO 4-10 days earlier are 51 from 152 (33.6%) for 35.2pts (+23.2% ROI), including...

  • at 7/1 and shorter : 51/135 (37.8%) for 52.2pts (+38.7%)
  • at trips shorter than a mile : 28/80 (35%) for 28.7pts (+35.9%)
  • and at 7/1 and shorter over trips shorter than a mile : 28/67 (41.8%) for 41.7pts (+62.2%), including 8 wins from 16 (50% SR) for 15.72pts (+98.25% ROI) over the last two seasons...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG which was available BetVictor, Betfair & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Salisbury : Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gumball @ 9/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good ground worth £18675 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was 3 from 9 over hurdles before switching to "level ground" in late February this year and is now 3 from 3 on the Flat/AW after 2 wins over 1m4f at Class 5, before landing a similar Class 3, 1m6f contest to today's when last seen 19 days ago at Salisbury, clear by 2 lengths and looking comfortable.

With regards to today's challenge, he is...

  • 6 from 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 6 from 6 at Class 3 or below
  • 3 from 4 going right handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in 2m hurdle contests, so stamina shouldn't be an issue
  • 2 from 3 on Good ground
  • and 2 from 2 under today's jockey Oisin Murphy

He is trained by Philip Hobbs, best known for his NH runners, of course, but has dabbled successfully in the past 10 years with hurdlers running on the Flat/AW and over the last two years, his Flat/AW runners are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 8.36pts (+92.4% ROI) at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f, all of them male, including...

  • 5 from 7 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 7 in the February to June period
  • and 4 from 6 with 5 yr olds

And more generally, since 2014, in Flat handicaps over 2m or shorter, horses racing off the back of three consecutive wins are 104/502 (20.7% SR) for 96.7pts (+19.3% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • last 3 runs/wins all "on the level" : 99/482 (20.5%) for 85.8pts (+17.8%)
  • males are 78/378 (20.6%) for 101.3pts (+26.8%)
  • from March to August : 83/375 (22.1%) for 124.3pts (+33.2%)
  • 16-25 dslr : 26/125 (20.8%) for 55.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 17/75 (22.7%) for 79.7pts (+106.3%)
  • over 1m6f to 2m : 15/55 (27.3%) for 27.9pts (+50.7%)
  • and this year alone : 7/11 (63.6%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gumball @ 9/4 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.25 Bath : Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo Fillies over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £12450 to the winner...

Why?...

Just three runs so far for this one, but she did win LTO on her seasonal re-appearance at Lingfield 13 days ago, when stepped up from 7f to 1m2f for the first time. She was coming off the back of an 8-month break that day, so providing there are no ill effects from that race, I'd expect her to come on for having had the run.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively simple today with just one point of attack, namely...

...trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's Class 2-4 handicappers who won LTO 3-30 days earlier and now run at 6-11 furlongs at odds shorter than 12/1 are 19/80 (23.75% SR) for 50.4pts (+63% ROI) since 2010, and with today's contest in mind, this includes...

  • over the last six seasons : 15/65 (23.1%) for 28.41pts (+43.7%)
  • with "Good" in the official going : 12/53 (22.6%) for 26.83pts (+50.6%)
  • up in class : 12/49 (24.5%) for 42.33pts (+86.4%)
  • within 75 miles of the yard : 14/41 (34.2%) for 48.5pts (+118.3%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/22 (2.7%) for 18.35pts (+83.4%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 6/20 (30%) for 12.38pts (+61.9%)
  • ridden by Charlie Bishop : 5/16 (31.25%) for 4.76pts (+29.75%)

...whilst from the above... last 6 seasons + "Good" in official going + up in class + less than 60 miles from "home" = 6/12 (50% SR) for 30.32pts (+252.7% ROI) and although that's a small sample size, it's not easy to ignore and does also interestingly contain...

  • 6-20 days since last run/win : 5/9 (55.6%) for 30.73pts (+341.4%)
  • over 1m2f : 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.37pts (+262.4%)
  • over 1m2f at 6-20dslr : 3/5 (60%) for 17.78pts (+355.6%)
  • Charlie Bishop : 3/5 960%) for 8.74pts (+174.8%)
  • at 6-20dslr with Charlie Bishop : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.15pts (+271.6%)
  • and with Charlie Bishop at 1m2f : 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.14pts (+71.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were offering 5/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.10 Southwell : The Drone @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead after 8th, driven to lead after 3 out, ridden after next, idled flat, just held on by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has been getting better with experience during his short (just 6 runs for 3 different trainers so far!) racing career and has finished third (beaten by 4L), 2nd (beaten by a neck) and first in his last three outings, the last two of which were his only two runs for today's trainer and also today's jockey.

The LTO win came here at Bath 9 days ago at the same class, course, distance and going as today and with the same jockey (Shane Kelly) on board, the only difference now is a 5lb rise in weight for that win, but that might not be enough to anchor him just yet and like yesterday, this horse cropped up on a few interconnecting angles I've got saved, so let's look at the data, shall we?

1. Trainer John O'Shea's handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO are 27 from 106 (25.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+28.1% ROI) profit if backed blindly since the start of 2015, from which the following are particularly relevant today...

  • at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 23/92 (25%) for 31.3pts (+34%)
  • on the Flat : 16/62 (25.8%) for 23.7pts (+38.3%)
  • on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 16/60 (26.7%) for 25.7pts (+42.9%)
  • LTO winners : 19/48 (39.6%) for 45.8pts (+95.4%)
  • LTO winners now running at 1m5f and shorter : 15/38 (39.5%) for 43.3pts (+114%)
  • LTO winners now running on the Flat : 10/24 (41.7%) for 34.6pts (+144.2%)
  • and LTO winners now running on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 10/23 (43.5%) for 35.6pts (+154.8%)

2. Plus, since 2013, John's horses who were turned out after less than 3 weeks rest following a class & distance win LTO are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.3pts (+176.4% ROI) with those running in the May-November period winning 9 of 15 (60%) for 30.9pts (+205.7%)

3. And finally for today, more generally since 2014 in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps, horses priced at 5/1 and shorter (where we'll surely be today) who won at the same class, course and distance LTO 6-15 days earlier went on to win again on 44 of 114 (38.6% SR) occasions generating 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 37.8%, from which...

  • those raised 3-10lbs for the win are 36/82 (43.9%) for 43.4pts (+52.9%)
  • and those raised 3-10lbs for the win to new mark of 65-80 are 32/62 (51.6%) for 46.5pts (+75%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday with plenty of 5/2 non-BOG available, whilst Bet365 were as big as 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.45 Musselburgh : Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/4 (Towards rear, ridden 3f out, not trouble leaders )

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Drone @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 3m on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm running a bit late this morning (I'd an appointment to attend) and this horse crops up in quite a few of my stored micro-systems (some of them fairly similar to each other admittedly), so I'll try to keep this brief, whilst still giving you a good overview of why this race should suit this lightly-raced 8 yr old gelding.

He's trained by Alex Hales (more on him very shortly) and will be ridden by Kielan Woods, he has five top three finishes from just six efforts over hurdles, winning twice including a class, course and distance success here last time out under Kielan twenty days ago, when clear by four lengths despite problems with the saddle slipping.

Now to the data...

1. Alex Hales + Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers at 10/1 and shorter + 2015-19 = 22/100 (22% SR) for 45.6pts (+45.6% ROI)

2. Alex Hales + Southwell handicap hurdles at 10/1 and shorter + 2016-19 = 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 40pts (+333.7% ROI), all at class 4/5, including 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 19.47pts (+249.6%) at Class 4.

3. Since 2011 in UK handicap hurdles, horses who won at the same class, course and distance LTO are 117/450 (26% SR) for 162.5pts (+36.1% ROI), from which...

  • 6-30 days since that win : 90/336 (26.8%) for 125pts (+37%)
  • at Southwell : 7/17 (41.2%) for 16.1pts (+94.8%)
  • and at Southwell + 6-30dslr : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.82pts (+48.5%)

4. And since the start of 2017 in Class 4 handicap hurdles, males who won by a length or more LTO are 141/522 (27% SR) for 67pts (+12.8% ROI), including...

  • over trips of 2.5m to 3m : 68/229 (29.7%) for 80.4pts (+35.1%)
  • at Southwell : 8/20 (40%) for 19.7pts (+98.5%)
  • and at Southwell over 2.5m to 3m : 7/17 (41.2%) for 17pts (+100%).

You can, of course, dig further into the above data and find plenty of relevant/profitable angles at play today, but I'm satisfied that there's enough there already...

...to support... a 1pt win bet on The Drone @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!