Tag Archive for: Horses for Courses

Racing Insights, Friday 08/12/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce five qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.15 Sedgefield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And from all of which, I'd say the best of the above races (on paper at any rate) for me to look at was the 3.00 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three miles on soft ground...

Huelgoat, Not Sure and Robyndzone all won last time out, whilst My Silver Lining and Animal were both runners- up. Only Planned Paradise is winless in six or more (nine to be precise!). Kapcorse has been off the track for 225 days now and might well need the run, although he does drop in class here. All his rivals have, however, had at least one run in the last month.

Via Dolorosa makes a yard debut for Sophie Leech and is up a class, as are Not Sure, Robyndzone and Animal, whilst top-weight Collectors Item wears cheekpieces for the first time. None of the field have won here at Sandown before, mind you just four have been here for a collective total of five runs with just one placed finish (Planned Paradise). As for the trip, that's a different story, as all bar Jet Plane, Huelgoat, Kapcorse and Planned Paradise have scored over s similar trip, and those who have won over fences at this distance are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where bottom-weight Planned Paradise looks arguably least suited to the task and Via Dolorosa might well be out of his depth at Class 3 from a win perspective, but he has made the frame in four of seven at this level...

...where Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone makes most appeal to me.

The pace stats from previous similar races look like this...

...an whilst there's not a great deal of data to work with, I think it's fair to suggest you want to be on a progressive type rather than one who is waited with. Based on their most recent outings...

...that would seem to steer us towards Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining.

Summary

Huelgoat, Not Sure, Robyndzone, My Silver Lining and Animal bring the best recent form to the table.
Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone mades most appeal to me from Instant Expert.
Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining were the takeaways from the pace stats.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining feature in all three lists and I fancy them to both make the frame here and possibly be the first two home. Of the others, Robyndzone also features three times, whilst Not Sure and Midnight Mary both feature twice.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining are currently (8.50pm UK time, 4.50pm here) both priced at 5/1. Not Sure is also 5/1 and that's too short for an E/W play for me, as is the 15/2 about Midnight Mary; she's a consistent placer, but I think the assessor has her held right now and I'd be wanting double digit odds about her.

I can, however, get 10's about Robyndzone, so he might not be a bad E/W bet after all.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/11/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers for Friday...

...plus I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races if needed...

  • 12.50 Wexford
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.50 Newcastle
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...but I think I'll stick with my H4C report qualifiers and have a look at Pockley and the 3.40 Newcastle, an 11-runner, 3yo+ A/W sprint handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Strong Johnson, Dickieburd and featured runner Pockely all come here off the back of a recent (7-10 days) win, whilst Bergerac, Treacherous and Ramon Di Loria were all placed on their last outings.

Bergerac, Venturous, Treacherous and Ramon di Loria are all winless in at least seven races (9, 19, 10 and 13 respectively) to be precise and the latter surely won't be helped by stepping up a class. Bergerac does, at least, drop down a class, as do Brooklyn Nine Nine and Be Proud.

Eight of the field have raced in the last fortnight or so and even Be Proud, Princess Karine (sole filly in the race), Venturous and Brooklyn Nine Nine shouldn't be rusty after short breaks of 20, 48, 59 and 68 days either.

Bergerac is the only runner yet to win at either track or trip with only Brooklyn Nine Nine and Treacherous of his rivals still seeking a first win at 5f. They have both, however, already won here at Newcastle over 6f, as has Dickieburd. Strong Johnson, Venturous (won this race in 2020), Be Proud, Ramon di Loria and featured runner Pockley have all scored over course and distance.

Instant Expert suggests that bottom weight Ramon di Loria might well be the least best suited to the conditions here...

...and his won record at going/course/trip are a concern, as are Treacherous' numbers on standard going and Be Proud's return at Class 4 in terms of wins. From the above, featured horse Pockley (as expected) and top weight Strong Johnson probably make most appeal on those numbers, but let's see if the place stats suggest any have been unlucky...

Well, from a place perspective, bottom weight Ramon di Loria certainly looks a different proposition and in draw order, these are the ones that make most appeal from the place data...

...and our draw analyser says that the first three of those seven might find it hardest to win here based on previous races...

That said, I'm always a little wary of leaning too heavily on past draw data for straight sprint, where there really shouldn't be much in it and it really should be fastest runner wins and this is backed up to some extent by the pace analysis of those 90-odd races above...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...we see that there aren't many happy to set the pace, but that Strong Johnson and Princess Karine look like being able to overcome a seemingly adverse low draw by getting away sharply.

Summary

I think I want to be focusing on the seven runners highlighted by the place data on Instant Expert and I'm going to stick my neck out and say I'm more interested in pace than I am in the draw here and I'm going to put Strong Johnson and Princess Karine forward as my main fancies for this one. They're both in good form, but Strong Johnson looks in better nick and beat Princess Karine on her last run. Only Bet365 have priced this up as of 3.00pm and they go 6/1 and 7/1 respectively and I'd take them to finish in that order. I might split stakes.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 03/11/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a trio of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.32 Ffos Las
  • 2.07 Ffos Las
  • 2.13 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.52 Ffos Las
  • 5.30 Dundalk

...the weather has again decimated my options, but we do have an excellent contest left on that list, so I'm going to look at No Risk Des Flos and the 3.00 Wetherby, an 8-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

Arthur's Quay and Famous Bridge both won their last race, but they're up one and two classes respectively, although the latter comes here on a hat-trick. War Lord and Dubai Days are also up one class here, but the latter did finish as runner-up having won two starts ago. No Risk Des Flos also won two races ago and was third at this grade last time out, whilst Shan Blue, War Lord and Frero Banbou have all been beaten in each of their last seven outings.

None of the field have raced in the last 14 weeks and War Lord runs for the first time since undergoing wind surgery. Frero Banbou is the only one in the field without a win over a similar trip, whilst four horses have won previously here at Wetherby. Shan Blue and No Risk Des Flos are course and distance winners, whilst Famous Bridge's last two runs have both been wins on this track over 2m6f and 3m½f, so he's very much down in trip today. Dubai Day's win here was in a 2m, Class 4 handicap hurdle way back in February 2021 and the entire field's form at today's going, class, tack and trip are documented by Instant Expert...

...where it's good to see a few soft ground successes, although Frero Banbou's 0/4 is a strange one, as his two career wins have been on good to soft and heavy! He has also struggled to win at Class1, as have Shan Blue and War Lord. Our three track winners have clocked up six wins between them over fences and from just nine efforts, so it's not just a case of throwing enough mud at the door to make it stick. Trip-wise, Gloire D'Athon's record is fantastic and he's two from two at Class 2. I'm now going see if he made the frame in those two defeats over this type of trip...

...well, he placed in one of the two and that's a sterling effort. The only two I have reservations about from the above are Frero Banbou (going) and Arthur's Quay (trip).

Twenty-odd similar past races haven't shown a massive pace bias from a win perspective...

...but you'd probably want to be on one that races prominently or even leads and based on the field's most recent efforts...

...I'm not convinced if any/many will want to take it on and we might well get a falsely run race, which I find suits the mid-division type of runner best, as they've less ground to make up than usual.

Summary

With the pace projections hinting that mid-divisional runners might go well and the fact that he's got a great record over this trip, I'm instantly drawn towards Gloire D'Athon. He wasn't at this best at Market Rasen last time out, but he drops back 3f to his preferred type of trip. He gets soft ground and is unexposed at Class 1 (but 2 from 2 at C2) and whilst maybe not an obvious pick, 10/1 with both Bet365 and Hills seems too big to ignore for an E/W bet.

As for a winner, I think I fancy Famous Bridge to continue his fine form and complete a Wetherby hat-trick, he's only up 3lbs for a relatively comfortable win here in March and the 6f drop in trip should help. He's currently 9/2 with both Bet365 & Hills, which is interesting, as I thought he'd be around the 3/1 mark.

Shan Blue is the current 3/1 fav and whilst he has undoubted talent, he hasn't raced since being pulled up last Boxing Day and concedes weight all round. he has been well beaten or failed to complete each of his last five and 3/1 doesn't appeal to me, although a big run wouldn't be a massive surprise.

No Risk Des Flos has obvious appeal based on the H4C report, but he's no E/W pick at 6's, so I'll leave it there. They're the four I see as the main protagonists and I'll back two.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/10/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier, who'll hope to be on the right track (sorry!)...

...this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 3.55 Cheltenham
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 5.05 Cheltenham
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

My sole H4C report qualifier looks like being involved in a fairly competitive affair despite the low standard, so let's take a look at On The Right Track and the 7.15 Wolverhampton. It's a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners here, but featured runner On The Right Track has made the frame in three of his last four and is the only runner to have won any of their last seven starts (aside from Ezmerellda, who has only raced five times so far, failing to place in any). Elsewhere Doublethetrouble and Lord Torranga have been knocking on the door with a string of runner-up finishes, whilst Zivaniya also made the frame on his last outing.

He now drops down from Class 5, as do On The Right Track, Haven Lady and Eagle's Realm with bottom-weight Northern Rose dropping two classes for her second run in a handicap. She's one of four (Zivaniya, Ezmerellda & Corsican Caper being the other) three year olds in the field and they all receive a 7lb weight allowance for their age.

The majority of the field are wearing some form of headgear/equipment, but this is a first time in cheekpieces for the in-form Lord Torranaga who, like On The Right Track and Kittens Dream, is a former Wolverhampton winner with the latter being our only previous course and distance winner, although Lord Torranaga has won over 1m6f at Catterick.

No excuses for fitness today, as all have had at least two weeks rest, but none should be rusty either, as they've all raced in the last four weeks, whilst relative past form (courtesy of Instant Expert, of course) looks like this...

...which On The Track aside is a pretty bleak picture. Kittens Dream and Havens Lady have had the most attempts to put numbers on the board, but both seem totally unsuited to this task ahead, so I'm crossing their names off straightaway from a win perspective. The above graphic pretty much speaks for it self, but I should add that despite a 0 from 8 record at Class 6 on the A/W, Lord Torranaga has three wins and two further places from nine at Class 5 and as you'll now see below, has a 50% place strike rate in those eight Class 6 defeats...

...and he now looks a viable rival to On The Right Track. They'll race fairly close together in stalls 6 and 8 of 10 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn highest in the past...

..but those races haven't been particularly kind to front-runners...

...which looks like being another blow to Haven Lady's chances if the last three races are anything to go by...

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the draw stats, the two I'd want to be with would be On The Right Track, who is proven at this venue, and Lord Torranaga who has been banging on the door for some time. The pace stats have done little to dissuade me from this position and I'm sticking with those two.

I suspect there'll be very little between them and I'd expect both to be priced around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark in a fairly open market and if pushed to pick a winner, I'm going to marginally side with my H4C report runner On the Right Track.

Without any prices to go at, it's hard to suggest an E/W punt, but I'd expect Doublethetrouble to continue his recent fine form and be the main danger to the other two.

Racing Insights, Friday 20/10/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Haydock
  • 2.25 Haydock
  • 4.35 Uttoxeter
  • 5.38 Redcar
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

Storm Babet continues to cause major disruption to meetings across Britain, so Fakenham and Uttoxeter's Friday cards must pass 7.30am inspections before being allowed to go ahead with Haydock already postponed. With this in mind, the A/W might be a safer place to focus on and we might as well have a look at Spirit of Ash from the H4C report above. She's one of three females in the 5.00 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 2m½f on standard tapeta...

Our featured runner Spirit of Ash was a winner here over 1m4½f just a week ago, making her the only LTO winner in this field, but most of her opponents have at least one win in their recent form, although Yasmin from York have lost her last seven and both Spritzin and Easter Island are maidens after eight and five races respectively.

Sophar Sogood is down three classes here after being well beaten at Class 2, but he's still a class higher than when winning two starts ago, whilst top weight Red Force One is down one level. Spirit of Ash goes the other way, moving up one class from her Class 6 win here a week ago, whilst out of form bottom weight Yasmin from York is also up one class, which I can't see being helpful!

Haaland, Spritzin and Artisan Dancer receive an 8lbs weight for age allowance here and the first named of that trio now wears cheekpieces for the first time after finishing third last time out. That was 29 days ago and whilst that's not exactly a distant memory, only Kiss My Face has been out of action longer and he might well need the run after 24 weeks off.

Despite being three from five here at Newcastle, Spirit of Ash hasn't won over course and distance (she hasn't gone beyond 1m5f), but both Bobby Shaftoe and the returning Kiss My Face have scored over track and trip, whilst Red Force One, Sophar Sogood, Artisan Dancer and Yasmin from York have won elsewhere over similar distances to this one.

One last note about Kiss My Face is that he's trained by Brian Ellison and will be ridden by Ben Robinson and this trainer/jockey combo have won this race for the last two years and Instant Expert suggests this runner should enjoy the prevalent conditions here...

Bobby Shaftoe also has a decent set of figures to back up his claims, but aside from Sophar Sogood, the field look pretty shy of Class 5 A/W wins and this is repeated in the place stats...

...where Yasmin of York would normally be of interest were she not in such poor form right now. Kiss My Face is the eyecatcher again here, but I'm just concerned he might need the run.

The draw stats for similar past races...

...are a little skewed by a poor set of results from horses drawn in stall 1...

...but that looks to be an anomaly and I'm fairly sure that the draw won't make or break the chances of a horse that has to run over 3500 yards after the gates open, so I wouldn't necessarily be ruling Bobby Shaftoe out right now, but I'd want him to race as prominently as he could from that lowest draw, if these pace stats are anything to go by...

That, sadly isn't normally the case ands he's generally held up or races in mid-field, as shown by his last four efforts below...

That said, there's very little pace in the race here and I suspect we'll have a falsely run race. Draw and pace will probably end up having very little effect on the outcome and if they go at a dawdle, which they might, then that's tailor made for the more natural hold-up types.

Summary

If we're not placing as much emphasis on draw/pace as we normally do, then it's going to be down to form, suitability, quality and the unquantifiable 'gut feeling' and with that in mind, I think I want to play at the bottom end of the pace chart. A lack of early pace would tend to set it up for a 'finisher'.

Spirit of Ash is the course specialist from the H4C report and I fancy her to go well, but she's never been beyond 1m5f, so may have to settle for a place/top 4 finish with Artisan Dancer the one I like most. He has finished 1116 in his last four and would have been much closer last time out, had he not been blocked off on the rail late on when flying home. He gets the trip, is in good nick, loves the A/W and is 3 from 6 under today's jockey.  He's the current 9/4 fav ahead of Spirit of Ash at 7/2, but neither price is particularly attractive/generous.

Elsewhere, at a bigger price, Bobby Shaftoe looks a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst Kiss My Face could well outrun his 12/1 ticket if fully tuned up after his lay-off, but you'd be taking his fitness on trust. Mind you, Skybet are paying 4 places, so who knows?

Racing Insights, Friday 06/10/2023

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two UK qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.07 Fontwell
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.10 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Newcastle

...and of the six UK races above (from the report and the free list), I'm going to look at the 4.30 Ascot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good ground, that will be softer in places...

No LTO winners here, but Art de Vivre, Brave Knight, El Jasor and Sea Stone all won their penultimate starts and the latter was third last time out, as was Oceanline.

Hy Brasil has been off the track the longest at 151 days but he now returns for a second crack at winning a handicap and is tongue-tied for the first time, whilst all his rivals have raced in the last five weeks or so. He's also stepping up a class from his last run, as are Oceanline and Brave Knight. Educator actually drops down a level, but bottom weight Art de Vivre is up two classes here.

Art de Vivre, is however, one of three 3 yr olds in the field along with El Jasor and Brave Knight and they'll get a useful 9lbs weight allowance for their age. None of this field have won here at Ascot before (mind you, only two have raced here), but three (Sea Stone, Brave Knight & Art de Vivre) have won over a two-mile trip.

Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Alright Sunshine relishing the going and the class of race, but not the track nor trip! Sea Stone probably looks the best, but there's not much to work with here, so let's look at place form...

I think that suggests Alright Sunshine isn't going to enjoy the 2m trip here and indeed, his best Flat form has been over 1m4f. He has, however got a decent record over hurdles at this class/trip, so all might not be lost, as shown below for all codes...

...but it's still Sea Stone from that for me. Alright Sunshine does look capable of a place and although I suspect the draw shouldn't be making or breaking a runner's chance here, he has bagged stall 1. The draw stats for similar past races say...

...that there is no real discernible draw bias at play here and that we'd be better off focusing on the pace of the race, where the key to winning here seems to be a prominent/leading run...

...with hold-up horses struggling most to make the frame. Our field's last few outings have gone as follows...

...with the top four of obvious interest.

Summary

The above analysis doesn't reflect this, but Sea Stone is the one to beat here in my opinion. He's in the best form and still looks ahead of the assessor, but I can't back him at 5/2, as those odds reflect poor value in a competitive race like this, plus he doesn't fit my profiling above 😉

Brave Knight, El Jasor, Hy Brasil & Art de Vivre are prominent/leading types and I want to focus on this quartet. I'm against Hy Brasil due to his layoff, handicap inexperience, class rise and a lack of form, but the other three all won two starts ago and that form allied to their likely running style makes them decent options to make the frame.

Sadly they're all currently priced at 5/1 or shorter, so I own't be having an E/W bet here, but this trio and Sea Stone should be the ones filling the places.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 29/09/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Gowran Park
  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 5.35 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Newcastle

We've had almost a constant deluge of rain in the North West for some while now, which could make life tricky for some runners, so I'm interested in the Haydock card. The free race on the card is for 2yo maiden fillies, which is almost as far removed from anything I like as you could possibly get, but I'm 'staying local' for the last on the card, the 5.25 Haydock. It's a competitive-looking (at first glance, anyway) 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on soft/heavy ground...

Bottom weight Beccara Rose was the only one of the group to win last time out, but Pearl Eye was a runner-up and has been in the frame in 10 of his 11 starts over the last year, winning five times. Rhythm n Rock is the only one without a win in six, having made the frame just once in that run after finishing 3113 in his first four outings.

Only Shahbaz and LTO winner Beccara Rose ran at this grade last time around, as Harswell Duke, Conservationist and the in-form Pearl Eye all step up from Class 4 whilst the top two on the card, Liamarty Dreams and Rhythm n Rock both drop down from Class 2, as does the oldest runner (8yo) Young Fire.

Young Fire is however a former course and distance winner, as are the three year olds Conservationist and Pearl Eye. Liamarty Dreams has also won here at Haydock, scoring over 7f sixteen months ago, whilst Rhythm n Rock, Harswell Duke and Beccara Rose have all won over a mile on other tracks with the latter getting off the mark over this trip at Kempton three weeks ago, but she does look better on the A/W.

Young Fire was actually in action as recently as Tuesday when beaten by 4.5 lengths on soft ground at a higher grade at Nottingham, so he's back out quickly in a field where all runners have seen some action in the last eight weeks (most in the last four!).

Beccara Rose's LTO (and sole) win came on the all-weather, so that won't appear on the flat stats provided by Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Pearl Eye looks like the standard-bearer. Harswell Duke wouldn't mind even more rain to drop, but his Class 3 win record isn't the best. Elsewhere, there are question marks over Young Fire's 3 from 26 at the trip and he'd probably prefer his races to be a little shorter, although he has made the frame in 4 of those 22 defeats (18.2%) as shown below...

...where again Pearl Eye looks the best suited. Young Fire has been consistent on soft ground and loves it here at Haydock, where he has finished 1114 on soft, whilst Shahbaz has been knocking on the door for a Class 3 win and those last two mentioned seem to be in the 'best' part of the draw, as our draw analyser suggests that the winners of similar races have come from stalls 2 to 5

...with those drawn 1 to 5 making the places most often. That's not ideal for the in-form eyecatcher Pearl Eye, but he is only one berth outside that corridor of runners. The pace data for those 30-odd races above point to those making the running faring best of all...

...which again isn't the best news for Pearl Eye, as recent evidence suggests he'll be nearer the back of the field with Rhythm n Rock and Young Fire, whilst the likes of Liamarty Dreams and Conservationist set the tempo...

All isn't lost, though, as when we combine pace & draw together, only Shahbaz looks like being inconvenienced and even then, he's pretty close to being in the green...

Summary

The pace/draw heat map suggests that any of these can win from any stall and if it's that open/competitive, I want to be with Pearl Eye. He's in great form (1321311 over this trip) and has won on both soft and heavy. He's currently 7/2 and that's probably a fair assessment of his chances.

Had this race been elsewhere on better ground, I'd probably not be interested in Young Fire, but he's a different animal on the soft ground at Haydock and at 9/1 with Bet365, I like him as an E/W possible. As for another placer, you could make a claim for most of them if truth be told, but only Harswell Duke is at an E/W price. He's 18/1 right now and on his form from October '22 to April this year, he'd be a cracking bet, but hasn't looked the same animal since taking the summer off. Perhaps it'll all click back into place?

 

Racing Insights, Friday 22/09/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Newton Abbot
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 3.50 Listowel
  • 4.50 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

...the pick of which must surely be the Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes aka the 2.50 Ayr, a 13-runner, Listed race for 3yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 5½f on good/good to soft ground and here's how they look on the card...

None managed to win last time out, but Aussie Girl has been the runner-up in each of her last three after winning four races ago. She has two wins and six places from her last eight starts (13221222), which is about as good as it gets for this field's recent form. Funny Story, Marine Wave and Secret Angel were also in the frame last time around, but the latter pair are both winless in at least six, as is Gale Force Maya.

Seven of the field raced in Class 1 action last time around, but Gale Force Maya (now blinkered for the first time), Marine Wave, Radio Goo Goo, Sophia's Starlight and Sweet Harmony all step up from Class 2 with Silent Words up two classes, depsite finishing last of seven at Thirsk earlier this month.

The vast majority of the field have raced in the last month or so, but Pink Crystal and Rum Cocktail return from ten-week breaks and as 4 yr olds, they're 2lbs worse off with the ten 3yo's in the field, as is the 7yo Gale Force Maya, who is the sole course and distance winner, by virtue of landing this race last year (that said, she is 0 from 7 and placed just once since).

None of her rivals have won here before, but Aussie Girl did win over 5½f at the end of April. Instant Expert says that all bar Marine Wave, Perdika and Silent words have won over 5f to 6f on turf, though...

There's not a huge deal of green there, but Sophia's Starlight would seem to be happy with the ground conditions and the trip. We're a bit shy on Class 1 winners, but Gale Force Maya is 5 from 14 at Class 2, whilst the corresponding place data for those races above is as follows...

...with the ones creating most initial interest being Perdika, Gale Force Maya, Pink Crystal, Aussie Girl and Queen Me.

As you'd probably expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a straight 5½f, although those drawn highest have won slightly more often...

...but the lower a horse is drawn the better its chances of making the frame have been, so mixed messages here and it's highly likely that pace will determine the winner/placers rather than the draw and here's how those 40-odd races above have been won...

...where hold-up horses have done surprisingly well over a short trip, almost achieving a par score for A/E, but as is often the case in a sprint contest, those getting out quickest have fared the best, which based on recent activity, would be good news for Aussie Girl and Queen Me from the Instant Expert shortlist, but Sophia's Starlight looks like the one most likely to set the tempo...

...and she's no mug. She didn't run particularly well last time out, but 7f on quick ground at York is nothing like she'll face here and prior to that York run, she had finished 131311521 in her eight runs this year, having made all in her five wins and Instant Expert highlighted her form at going/distance as the best.

She's drawn centrally in stall 6 and looks well favoured by the pace/draw heat map...

Summary

I really like Sophia's Starlight here and although I'm not sure she's the winner of this contest, I'm happy to back her E/W. Only Hills had prices up at 3pm on Thursday, but 10/1 is workable or you might want to wait until those firms offering four places open up.

I also fancy the chances of Aussie Girl and Queen Me. Both were on the IE shortlist, both will be up with the pace and the latter is in excellent form. Queen Me's efforts in Group 1 defeats on her last two outings might well be the best recent runs from any of these runners and this represents a major drop in quality and it's highly likely that she's going to be the one to beat here. 9/2 isn't overly generous, but I'd say it was fair.

As for Aussie Girl, I'd be surprised if she didn't make the frame : she normally does, but 13/2 is a little on the short side for me to go E/W. That said, she's a major player here and wouldn't be a bad bet.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/09/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are fairly restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards and for Friday they are...

  • 2.25 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Downpatrick
  • 4.25 Sandown
  • 4.30 Chester
  • 5.35 Sandown

The Doncaster race is a Group 2 sprint, but I tend not to get involved with 2 yr olds too much, so I'm going to tackle the 4.25 Sandown, an 8-runner (fingers crossed they all run for E/W purposes), 4yo+, Class 2 flat handicap over a right-handed 7f on good ground...

The early market had this as a race within a race with (alphabetically) Atrium, Azano, Silver Samurai & Under The Twilight all priced at 9/2 or shorter with the other half of the field all rated 8/1 or bigger and my initial thoughts were that Hills had it spot on with who to follow, but they might not be right!

Silver Samurai was the only one win last time out, but Atrium won two starts ago and both Azano and Under The Twilight were placed on their last runs. Documenting, Azano, Mitrosonfire and Mokaatil are currently winless in six, twelve, twelve and eleven races respectively, which has to be a concern, especially for the latter trio.

Only Atrium, Documenting and Azano actually ran at Class 2 last time out with the other five all now stepping two levels from Class 4, which makes life tougher for the LTO winner/placers Silver Samurai and Under The Twilight, but they are at least running well.

Mokaatil is the only one of the eight yet to win at today's trip, but in fairness he has yet to race over 7f, despite 67 previous outings. He's far better (7 from 37) over 5f than he is over 6f (2 from 30), so I think 7f might be a stretch for him especially from 2lbs out of the handicap, although he is the only previous course winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap over 5f just over a year ago.

All eight have been seen fairly recently with Mitrosonfire (9 days) and Priscilla's Wish (42 days) the quickest turned back out/longest rested, whilst Atrium is the sole headgear-wearer, sporting cheekpieces for the fourth race in a row, including a 7f win at Doncaster on his penultimate outing.

Instant Expert suggests that Azano might well be the weakest of the four market principals...

...and you'd not rush out to back him if that data was all you had to work with! His win record on good ground, at Class 2 and over 7f are frankly lamentable, but none of these scream Class 2 runner, so let's have a look at Class 3 form...

...which still isn't a good look for Azano! Priscilla's Wish is interesting here with a Class 3 win and a 6 from 18 record over today's trip. She was fourth at Newmarket last time out, but has two wins and a runner-up finish from seven starts this year. Atrium and Silver Samurai have the best records on good ground and the former has 3 wins from 7 over this trip.

The draw stats here over 7f at Sandown would suggest that the runners drawn in stalls 2 to 7 have an advantage over those drawn at the extremities...

...which might not be the best news for Silver Samurai in stall 1 and much might rest on how he gets away/involved here. Recently he has tended to race towards the back of the field, as have many of the field if truth be told...

...and if the above is anything to go by, Atrium might well be allowed to grab a soft early lead and dominate the race from the front and according to the pace/draw heat map, he's the best placed of all here, if he leads from a relatively high draw...

Summary

Of the quartet that I (and the early market) thought be the ones to focus on, Silver Samurai & Azano had poor scores on Instant Expert and all bar Azano look like being unsuited by being held up. Azano looks like being able to dictate the pace of the contest here and that should ensure that he makes the frame, but he wouldn't be an obvious winner based on past form under these conditions and at odds ranging from 7/2 to 9/2, I don't think there's much value in either of the four 'originals'.

I'll not be backing any of these to win, but if I was to play here, I might just have a small (and I mean small) E/W flutter on Priscilla's Wish. She has been held up in her last two outings but has also been known to race more prominently, she's not too badly drawn and certainly gets the trip. I won't be risking much money, but at 10/1, she could well be the E/W answer.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Friday 08/09/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Down Royal
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Kempton

...the best of which looks like being the 5.20 Ascot, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 7f on good ground...

No recent LTO winners here, although Vermilion did score when last seen some 349 days ago, but the form horse is surely Kimnkate who has finished 1121212 since adopting blinkers in June of this year. Gulmarg, Metahorse and Boy Browning were also placed on their last runs, although both Gulmarg and Metahorse haven't won for a while (both have lost 10 in a row!) with the same applying to Boy Browning (winless in 6), whilst the lightly raced filly, Liberty is a three-race maiden.

She now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 76 and the returning Vermilion also debuts in handicap contests here, but he's rated at 83. He does, however drop a class, whilst Liberty steps up a class. Boy Browning, Starlight Nation and De Bruyne are also up in class with Pastiche, Kimnkate & Zouzanna dropping down.

We know Vermilion has been off for nearly a year, but there shouldn't be any fitmess issues with the others, who aside from Starlight Nation (off 73 days), have all raced in the last two to six weeks. None of the field have won here before, but all bar Havana Pusey, Zouzanna, Boy Browning, Liberty (obviously) and De Bruyne have at least won over today's trip, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where off an admittedly small number of runs, Pastiche is the eye-catcher. Metahorse and Gulmarg seem to have struggled to win at this grade, but quite a few of these have done well at the trip. The place stats are very interesting, though, as Gulmarg and Metahorse are regular Class 4 placers, so maybe they've been unlucky?

...with this quintet the ones with the best overall profile...

These runners are drawn in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7 & 11, but over a straight sprint on good ground there shouldn't be much in the draw and the stats say...

...that there really isn't much in it, so no real advantage to be gained from any of this field, meaning that it might well come down to race tactics aka pace and those races above have gone as follows...

Sadly, we've not got much assistance there either if truth be told. The place stats are very similar across the board and it almost seems strange that hold-up horses do as well as the others. I'll show you how this group have approached their last few races, even if we're not going to use the data...

There should be plenty of early pace with Liberty, Metahorse, Vermilion, Boy Browning and Zouzanna all keen to get on with things here.

Summary

Short and possibly not very sweet today. We've not really got much from pace/draw, but we know which horses are in good form and which horses stood out on Instant Expert and whilst I'm not going to be going in too heavily after not using the pace/draw stats, my money would be for Kimnkate. She has been a revelation since being fitted with blinkers and although up 2lbs here, she looks the one to beat. She's 12121 under today's jockey and 5/1 looks fair enough.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Metahorse, Gulmarg and Pastiche to be involved, but all are too short to back E/W, whilst those priced at 8's or bigger make little appeal. Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your pocket.

Racing Insights, Friday 01/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 4.08 Fontwell
  • 4.45 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Down Royal
  • 6.43 Salisbury
  • 7.43 Salisbury

...and I think it makes sense to look at Ready Freddie Go from the H4C report, who runs in the first of our free races, the 3.20 Thirsk. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Tinto comes here off the back of a win, but Bay Breeze won his penultimate race, Fast And Loose was third LTO and Rock Opera's last three results read 122, but he is now returning from a 14-month break, so could very well need the run!

Brazen Bolt won six races ago and feature horse Ready Freddie Go has a win and a place from his last three, but seven of this field are without a win in their recent form lines.

I said Rock Opera might need a run on his second handicap outing after a 14-month absence and that might also apply to Ingra Tor and Pendleton after breaks of 144 and 349 days respectively, during which time the latter has moved yards and now makes a debut for Julie Camacho.

Only Ready Freddie Go, Tinto and Fast And Loose ran at Class 3 last time out, as the bottom three on the card (Rock Opera, Khabib & last year's winner of this race, Runninwild) all step up from Class 4 with the remaining six runners all dropping down from Class 2.

By winning this race last year, Runninwild is one of three (along with Tinto & Bay Breeze) former course and distance winners. As you'd expect from his place on the H4C report, Ready Freddie Go is a past Thirsk winner, having landed 4 of his 5 races over 5f, but he's one of just three (along with Rock Opera & Khabib) yet to win at 6f, as shown on Instant Expert...

And whilst the above doesn't necessarily guide me to a winner or even an E/W bet, it does mark the card for me regarding the likes of Pendleton (going/class/distance), Gulliver (going/class/distance), Fast And Loose (going/class/distance) and Khabib (going/course/distance) to the extent that I won't be backing any of them to buck the trend and win here and for simplicity's sake, I've removed them before looking at place stats...

...where aside from Ingra Tor's relatively poor record over 6f , there's little to cause me any discomfort. Interestingly, only last year's winner Runninwild runs off a mark lower than his last win, but that's probably because he's 0 from 6 since that win here a year ago. That said, his place data is very strong. He's drawn in stall 3 today and won from stall 4 last year, but our draw analyser suggests that those drawn highest have the best chances here...

...which allied to the PRB3 figures...

...might leave me with egg on my face if Gulliver and Fast And Loose go well from stalls 9 & 10! If we then consider how those races above were actually won, you'll probably not be too surprised to hear that leaders go well over a straight 6f on good ground, whilst hold-up horses have fared the worst as is generally the case in such contests...

...which sadly for me, again suggests that Fast And Loose possibly shouldn't have been discarded...

...whilst in draw order, we have...

...pointing to Fast And Loose being best placed on both draw and pace with feature horse Ready Freddie Go also looking useful.

Summary

The Pace/Draw data suggests that Fast And Loose is a major player, but he has only won once in fourteen attempts and represents poor value to me at 5/1. I've no doubt that he'll be in the mix with such a good pace/draw profile and the fact that he has made the frame in 9 of those 14 starts, but he'd be a placer again here for me and 5/1 is no E/W price for my liking.

He was beaten by Tinto last time out and despite being 4lbs worse off here, I think Tinto will beat him again and 9/2 is probably fair if unexciting. What I do like is the early 17/2 being offered about Brazen Bolt. He's better than recent results might suggest, he's down in class, had good place data on Instant Expert and his yard have a good record at this track. His trainer/jockey are in good collective form and have done well here at Thirsk together and 17/2 is a decent E/W price.

As for H4C report horse, Ready Freddie Go, I'm sure he'll give his best shot on his favoured track and could well get close to the frame at 9/1, but I'd much prefer him over 5f rather than today's trip.

Racing Insights, Friday 25/08/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers

,,,which are, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.40 Newmarket
  • 3.00 York
  • 5.45 Hamilton
  • 6.20 Hamilton
  • 7.15 Goodwood
  • 8.05 Hamilton

The York race above is a Group 2 sprint worth over £150k, but I'm not comfortable in 2yo races, so I'm going to head North of the border for a competitive-looking fillies' handicap in the 5.45 Hamilton from the free list. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ affair over a right-handed 1m1f on good to soft ground, which will be softer in places and more showers are forecast for this field...

Dandy's Angel looks like the form horse here, having won last time out and having landed three of her last four. She has actually won four of her last seven since finishing third at Carlisle on the 2nd June, despite only winning two of her previous 44 outings. Elsewhere, only Alethiometer and Do I Dream have a win in their last six efforts, although the 3yr old Streetzoffilly has only raced three times.

She makes her handicap debut here and like fellow 3 yr olds Centre Court and Anjo Bonita, she gets a useful 7lbs weight for age allowance. She's also up a level from Class 5 here, but she's not alone, as the bottom four on the card (Anjo Bonita, Do I Dream and Dandy's Angel being the others) all step up one class.

As well as getting the weight allowance and stepping up in class, this will only be Anjo Bonita's second run in a handicap and like all bar Do I Dream, she was last seen less than three weeks ago. Mind you, Do I Dream's 45-day layoff shouldn't cause any fitness issues. Dandy's Angel is turned back out quickest, just nine days after a nice win at Beverley, which 'earned' her a 5lb weight rise, but she is the only previous distance winner in a field with no previous course wins.

That said, Instant Expert tells me that only four of them have raced here before and only two of them have visited more than once. Instant Expert also says the field have largely toiled under the forecasted conditions...

...which is a pretty underwhelming set of results. Golden Melody and in-form Dandy's Angel have particularly poor results on this going, whilst the former is 0/20 at Class 4 and the latter is 1/8 at the trip. Strangely, though, this pair were two that I initially thought might do well, perhaps place form will show them in a better light...

...which is a much better picture for most of this field. Centre Court looks weak, whilst as you'd expect from a three-race maiden, Streetzoffilly has little data to work with. If truth be told about Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel, the former prefers a slightly shorter trip and the latter is better at 1m2f, but along with Anjo Bonita and Do I Dream, they make up the four I'd be most interested in from Instant Expert.

There doesn't seem to have been too much of a draw bias in past similar races, although those drawn highest have made the frame most often and have the best PRB3 scores...

...which might give a (very) slight advantage to Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream who will emerge from boxes 6 and 7 respectively. And if we re-consider those same races above from a pace perspective, the key has been to be able to track the leader(s) with a view to pouncing late on...

...where prominent runners have provided 55.3% of the winners from just 34.8% of the runners. As for placers, hold-up horses have really struggled here, which might cause problems for Golden Melody, Dandy's Angel and Do I Dream if they approach this way in the same manner as their last few runs...

...but Anjo Bonita might well find the tempo of the race to her liking.

Summary

I had thought that Golden Melody and Dandy's Angel would be the two to beat here, despite having poor win records on Instant Expert and having seemingly poor pace profiles for this race, but I can't back either if I want to be true to the process that generally serves me well. Instead, the one I want to back, despite not being an obvious winner, is Anjo Bonita at 4/1. It's not a generous price, if truth be told. I was hoping for a little more, but she might drift a little (fingers crossed).

She may well be a 10-race maiden, but she has made the frame in eight starts, including five of the six under today's jockey Billy Garrity. She's 2lbs lower than her handicap debut and gets a weight for age allowance here and is sure to be on the premises when the race is won, hopefully in her favour.

Racing Insights, Friday 18/08/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one Irish 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Newbury
  • 3.45 Newbury
  • 4.45 Epsom
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 4.55 Newbury
  • 6.43 Tramore

...from which there's not much to excite me, so I'm going to foocus on the day's highest rated handicap race, the 8.05 Newmarket, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

The form horse would appear to be bottom-weight Sudden Ambush who won last time out and is two from three and three from six. As a 3yr old, he's getting a 6lbs weight allowance here as are Finn's Charm and Lose Your Wad.

Bear Force One is two from four, but his recent results look binary (1010) and Finn's Charm, Arqoob, Repertoire & Lose Your Wad have all won at least one of their last five. The entire field have won at least once over this trip, but only Bear Force One has won here at Newmarket, having scored over course and distance way back in July 2020.

LTO winner Sudden Ambush wears a tongue tie for the first time here and is up one class, as is Azano, whilst Repertoire is up two classes despite finishing 8th of 9 at Yarmouth last time out. All bar Arqoob have raced in the last eight weeks or so, but he's been off for 111 days, during which time he has moved from Lucy Wadham's yard and now debuts for William Jarvis.

As well as possibly needing a run, Arqoob is going to have to run better on good ground than he has previously, because Instant Expert highlights the going as one of his weaknesses...

Azano is another with a low win percentage on good ground and he looks very weak right across the board, which isn't too surprising for a horse with just 3 wins from 32 outings. Intellogent and to a lesser extent Lose Your Wad also look pretty weak under these conditions. Sudden Ambush looks decent albeit off a small sample size, whilst Bear Force One looks consistent if unspectacular from a win perspective and he also has decent place stats too...

...where Azano remains weak on class/distance. Bopedro, Bear Force One and Sudden Ambush seem the ones to focus on from Instant Expert and they're all drawn fairly close together in 3, 4 and 6 with Azano the filling in the sandwich in that central cluster that seems to have avoided the lower stalls that our Draw Analyser suggests is a poor place to run from...

...but I'm not entirely convinced by that set of figures, but I wasn't surprised to see that the Pace Analyser show that those races were won by horses keen to get on with things...

...generating the following pace/draw heat map...

...where the mid-drawn hold-up horses aside, the greens are where you'd expect them to be based on the above data, but do we have a mid/high drawn leader in our pack?

This suggests that the pace will come from stalls 3 to 7 with Azano leading the charge, as he has done in ten of his last eleven races. That said, he hasn't really looked like winning any of them and I don't expect that to change here. Finn's Charm looks like the next cab off the rank, but was last of four and 25th of 29 either side of a runner-up finish in the German 2000 Guineas in May and was then beaten by almost 20 lengths last time out, so it's probably not going to be his day either.

My feeling here is that Azano and Finns Charm will tow Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One into the race and that this latter pair will end up being the ones to beat.

Summary

Sudden Ambush and Bear Force One now look the ones to be with here and the early (3.10pm friday) market has them at a best-priced 10/3 fav and 7/1 respectively with Hills and I think that's probably the right way round, although there might not be much in it and the latter might well be the value play here, especially if he drifts any and we can go E/W.

As for one for the frame, I can't put Azano, Finn's Charm or Intellogent forward based on the above. Repertoire and Bopedro look to have too much to do from the back, whilst Lose Your Wad is out of sorts and poorly drawn.  This, almost by default, puts Arqoob in the spotlight and if he gets the 'new trainer bounce' that many runners do get, he's only 3lbs higher than his last win and was in good form over hurdles in the winter. And at 17/2 or bigger later, he mightn't be a bad E/W pick here if the return to Team Jarvis works.

Racing Insights, Friday 11/08/23

/in /by

Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded an interesting pair of qualifiers for this Friday...

...whilst I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 4.00 Brighton
  • 4.45 Tipperary
  • 5.10 Thirsk
  • 5.40 Haydock
  • 6.15 Haydock
  • 7.15 Wexford

...and I think I'll have a look at Equiano Springs from the H4C) report in the 8.20 Newmarket. He has won 4 of 6 races over 6f on the Rowley course and is 2 from 2 over this course and distance which is a straight 6f on the July course. This Class 4 race has eleven runners aged 3 and over and they'll be racing on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this could be a shootout between the oldest runner, top weight and featured horse Equiano Springs and the bottom weight 3yo filly Lady Dreamer, but let's see.

Golden Duke and Equiano Springs both won last time out with the latter scoring here over track and trip at this class. Champagne Sarah is 112 in her last three and all bar Rathbone, Tolstoy and Dashing Dick have won at least one of their four outings, but this trio have lost their last 13, 18 and 16 races respectively and that alone is enough for me to say no, thank you!

Of the eight that remain, Prospering and fast-finisher Distinguished Lady both drop down a class for a race that will be the latter's debut for Darryll Holland, having left Alice Haynes' yard in the last month. LTO winner Golden Duke goes the other way and steps up from Class 5.

Ice Cool Harry makes just a second handicap appearance, as does Lady Dreamer and as 3 yr olds they receive a useful 4lbs weight allowance, as do Distinguished Lady, Champagne Sarah (first-time cheekpieces here) and Prospering.

The entire field have raced in the last six weeks already, but all eight under consideration have been rested for at least a fortnight. Equiano Springs is 2 from 2 over 6f on the July course and he's the only previous course winner, but all of his rivals bar Flying Secret have at least one win over today's trip.

Equiano Springs, as you'd expect, dominates Instant Expert...

...but there are some good shout on place form from the likes of Distinguished Lady, Golden Duke and Lady Dreamer...

...and at this stage, I'd expect them to be the biggest danger to the top weight runner, Equiano Springs, whose berthing in stall 2 looks quite favourable, according to our Draw Analyser...

...although there's not a huge deal in it and it's likely to be the pace approach that settles this one...

...with the pace stats and the pace/draw heatmap suggesting that if Equiano is up with the pace, he stands a great chance here yet again...

...so if he's averaging around 3.00 or even better, then he's surely the one to beat...

Summary

Featured horse Equiano Springs has to be the one to beat here and having gone through the analysis above, the only surprise to me is that he can be backed at 4/1. The tissues range from 7/2 to 9/2, so 4's is about right, although I see him as a 3/1 or even shorter bet, so I'm on.

Lady Dreamer is 6/1 second favourite and she's probably right to be there, but I think Champagne Sarah is very interesting at an eachway-backable 8/1. The pace might do away with Distinguished Lady's chances, but if the race falls apart then her 14/1 odds might begin to look very big indeed.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 28/07/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including Challet, whose record at York over the last couple of years reads 113337.

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.00 York
  • 5.22 Cork
  • 5.57 Cork

I'm not too enthused by either H4C race nor the free list, but with the recent poor weather affecting the going across the country, I think I'll look for a race where trip and going are at the end of the spectrum, so let's try the 4.45 Ascot, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground, that should be better in places...

Glamorous Breeze and Cruise both won last time out and both are two from three, although the former fared better than the latter on their penultimate runs and she also drops in class here, as do Lil Guff, Cuban Breeze and Woolhampton, but bottom weight Sarah's Verse is up a level here. Cuban Breeze is winless for almost a year now, losing 17 on the bounce, but has made the frame in 5 of her last six.

There's nothing new/different to report on this field and all of them have had a run in the last month, with Cuban Breeze turned back out just a week after finishing as runner-up at Newmarket. She's the only one of this bunch to have already won here at Ascot, having scored over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark 3lbs lower than today. Only Origintrail, Woolhampton and Holy Fire have yet to win over this minimum distance.

Four of the field have previously tackled soft ground, with two going on to win and four of these runners have won at this grade before, with only Holy Fire yet to run at Class 4 on turf, according to Instant Expert...

Lil Guff and Sarah's Verse don't seem to mind the soft ground, but most of Cuban Breeze's best form has been on Good to Firm ground (as it normally is for this meeting!) or on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Glamorous Breeze has consistently made the frame at both class (8 from 13) and trip (17 from 27) and she has 11 top 3 finishes from 13 races over 5f at Class 4.

We don't have much data for similar past contests here at Ascot, so I've tweaked the parameters slightly to try to see if the draw might affect Glamorous Breeze's chances out in stall 8 of 8...

...but I don't think the draw will be a deciding factor. Yeah, Cuban Breeze will be grateful to have got stall 1, which has produced a freakishly large number of winners, probably due to having the rail there to keep them straight, but aside from that, there doesn't seem to be a huge bias. Cuban Breeze hasn't won for some time, but makes the frame pretty often and that consistency allied to the 'plum' draw will make her popular and I suspect that, based on her last few outings, she's likely to be up with the pace, whilst Sarah's Verse will have to come flying late on, if she's to win here...

The pace stats here, however, suggest that coming from the back wouldn't be the best move and that those furthest forward would have the best chance...

Summary

On the face of it, Cuban Breeze should be the one to beat. She has been running consistently well of late, seems to have the best of the draw and is likely to be up with the pace. Sadly, as the one to beat, she seems to do just that ie get beat! She's on a 17-race losing streak and is still only 2lbs lower than her last win and runs off the same mark as her last four runs/losses, so I'm now expecting it to be another 'close, but no cigar' run for her.

She's good for the frame and at 13/2 with Hills at 3.15pm, could be one for a place/EW bet, but for the win I prefer Glamorous Breeze for her consistency at this class/trip and she comes here in great form and I think she can land her third win in four starts. She's currently 9/2 which is about right, I'd say and I'd guess the 1-2-3 would be completed by Woolhampton or Lil Guff. Neither are long enough at 11/2 for me to go E/W and if pushed, I prefer the latter of the two.

As for our 4/1 favourite Cruise, her four races on turf have ended 4686 and I'd rather back her the next time she's on the tapeta.