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Stat of the Day, 21st February 2013

Stat of the Day: 21/02/13

Stat of the Day: 21/02/13

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2013

Time appeared to catch up on the veteran Fairwood Present yesterday. A series of unusual jumping errors blighted his run, as he justified the market's lack of faith in him, having drifted from my 9/1 advice out to an SP, of 20/1. The old warrior completed the course, unlike three of his rivals, but he only beat one other horse home.

We're off to Cambridgeshire today for a Class 1 Listed hurdle, where just five runners are set to line up to tackle two miles, four and a half furlongs on Soft Ground. We're looking to beat a very short-priced favourite in The Sidney Banks Memorial Novices Hurdle aka the ...

3.30 Huntingdon

Jeremy Scott has a terrific record here at Huntingdon with seven winners from sixteen since October 2011, with another four of the nine losing horses going on to make the frame. Strike rates of 43.75% and 68.75% for the win and the place have produced profits of 9.1pts (56.9%) and 15.9pts (49.7%)  for E/W backers. So Jeremy's runners here are always of interest.

Mr Scott comes here double-handed, with Grey Missile contesting the 2.30 chase event, but it's looks little too tough for him. he may well have a squeak of an E/w chance though (currently available at 9/1), but I prefer the chances of Kilmurvy who runs an hour later.

Kilmurvy is an unexposed type (23114 from 5 races) and a better horse than he showed last time out when struggling at Exeter. He toiled under a big weight in the mud that day, but Huntingdon is generally considered an easier track and more like the Taunton course that he's already won twice on.

His first win at Taunton was a bumper on good ground, but he followed that up with a hurdle victory on heavy ground over 2m 3.5f whilst seeming to still have more to give. It is hoped that the application of the cheekpieces will aid his progress further today and despite coming up against an odds on favourite (around 1/2) today, it wouldn't be any surprise to see him run well again.

Stan James are best priced at 15/2 at the moment, but their site is down and a telephone service is in operation, whilst Boylesports go 7/1. Despite these odds being long enough for a safety-first E/W bet and the presence of a short-priced favourite, I'm taking the bull by the horns and suggesting a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy at 7/1 BOG with Boylesports, but you can always...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Huntingdon, whilst...

...you can view today's racecard here.

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 07/02/13

Stat of the Day: 07/02/13

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2013

Our poor week continued yesterday evening as Lucky Mark failed to even make the frame. He looked to have every chance rounding the home turn, but soon folded under pressure and looked to be eased down, once the race was lost.

We're moving back to the turf and some jumps action today for an interesting-looking Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs, where we expect 10 runners to tackle the soft ground in the...

3.45 Huntingdon

Trainer Jeremy Scott's record at Huntingdon is absolutely fantastic and despite having a fairly lengthy training career, he has only really started coming here in the last 15 months or so. He does now seem to be making a real mark though, saddling seven winners from just fifteen entrants with a further three horses getting placed. His Huntingdon win strike rate of 46.7% has produced profits of just over 10pts at SP, whilst backing his horses to an E/W stake has given just over 15pts profit, with a return in 66.7% of races.

His strike rate is even better in hurdle events here, with five winners from ten and a further one horse placed. It is with these figures in mind that I keep half an eye out for Mr Scott's horse appearing here and today sees a single entry in the form of Quaddick Lake.

This seasoned 10 yr old has enjoyed a new lease of life and has also found a level of consistency since moving to Jeremy's yard in July 2012. The horse had hardly covered himself in glory during an indifferent career over both hurdles and chases for David Pipe before moving to Ashley Farrant in 2011. He ran in four chases for that yard without a great deal of success, before ending up with Mr Scott just under seven months ago.

The current yard obviously feel that Quaddick Lake needs to be kept busy, as today will be his 10th outing for them in just over six months and his form has been fantastic since the move. Jeremy decided to put the horse back hurdling and has been rewarded with figures of 1322211U3, by far his most consistent run of his career. Other than a fall 3 out at Kempton on Boxing Day, he hasn't failed to make the first three home in nine races and blind backing of him would have netted 7pts at SP and 16pts for E/W backers.

He ran really well when 3rd (staying on) at Cheltenham on heavy ground last time out (12 days ago) and any repeat of that kind of run should see him go close today. This race is admittedly the best part of half a mile further and he has an extra 3lbs to contend, but stamina hasn't been an issue with this old warrior: he has a win under his belt at 3m 1f and I don't expect the ground to be a problem either, he has won on both of his last two outings on soft ground.

A further positive is the booking of jockey Nick Scholfield who appears to have built a decent rapport with the horse, as they are 1322113 together.

It's not an easy race to call, but Jeremy Scott's horses go well here and the horse is in the form of its life, placing consistently. The market shows just about enough wriggle room for a safety-first E/W bet, so I'm going with 0.5pts E/W on Quaddick Lake at 6/1 BOG with bet365, but as the day unfolds, you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.45 Huntingdon

Well I Declare: 24th November

Well I Declare: 24th November

Well I Declare: 24th November

There's a busy programme of racing today and here's a reminder of Mal Boyle's preview of the action from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Lingfield and Wolverhampton on...

...SATURDAY 24/11:

Ascot:

General stats: Aside from Nicky Henderson’s great record at Ascot (39 winners during the last five years), Jamie Snowdon stands out from the crowd.  James has saddled three of his four runners to winning effect and Marodima (scheduled to contest the 3.40 event) was Jamie’s only option at the two-day meeting earlier in the week.

Two mile six novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Six-year-olds have won two of the three races to date whilst securing four of the nine each way/toteplacepot positions.  This is an impressive ratio given that just nine vintage representatives have contested the race thus far.

Grade 2 Chase scheduled for 2.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners.  Ghizao was Paul’s only entry at the five-day stage.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, securing nine of the twelve available win and place positions during the period.

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Haydock:

General stats: Colin Tizzard has saddled three of his last nine runners at Haydock to winning effect and the trainer held three options for Saturday’s meeting earlier in the week. 

Bumper event scheduled for 1.25: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer, whilst Donald McCain has saddled two of the last three winners.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: All five winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Betfair Chase scheduled for 3.05: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last four winners though as you are probably aware, the horse was each occasion was the brilliant Kauto Star.  Paul was responsible for two of the nine five-day declarations on Monday, namely Silviniaco Conti and Tidal Bay.  Four of the last six favourites have obliged.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: With stats of 35/105 in recent years, Nicky Henderson rules the roost at Huntingdon.  Record of favourites in non handicap events at Huntingdon during the last five years: Hurdles: 45%--Chases: 46%.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe is saddling plenty of winners just now and Tom’s record here at Lingfield in recent years: 26% strike rate--LSP figure of fifty-nine points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian continues to offer punters hope at Dunstall Park having saddled eleven winners from just twenty-nine runners at the track, producing an LSP figure of twenty-six points.

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Colin Tizzard Has His String In Great Heart....

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