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Stat of the Day, 17th June 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Chelmsford : Seneca Chief @ 11/4 BOG (2.34/1 after 15p Rule 4) WON at 6/4 (Tracked leader, pushed into lead over 1f out, pulled clear final furlong to win by three and a half lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, as usual, the racecard should be your starting point...

...and we can instantly see a 3yr old horse dropping in class for his second run in a handicap and trained by someone with a good record at this venue. He's priced at odds we can get some reasonable value from, is the top rated (OR) runner in the race and also is top of our SR ratings.

Starting with that green C5 icon denoting that Mark Johnston has a good record here at Chelmsford. This is, of course, true, but for terms of relevance today, this is what's interesting about this runner...

An excellent recent course and distance record with horses deemed to have at least a chance by the market, and of those 50 runners...

  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 5.77pts (+19.9%) in races worth £4k to £8k
  • 10/22 (45.5%) for 24.13pts (+109.7%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 5.96pts (+31.4%) were unplaced last time out
  • and 4/10 (40%) with Franny Norton in the saddle...

...whilst in 5-8 runner contests worth less than £8k, they are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 7.69pts (+54.9% ROI).

And now onto that HC2  icon denoting a second run in a handicap and in particular this Mark Johnston angle...


...and those 51 runners include the following ten profitable angles...

  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 19.78pts (+56.5%) from male runners
  • 9/29 (31%) for 12.69pts (+43.8%) over 6 to 8 furlongs
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 14.07pts (+46.9%) were unplaced last time out
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 10.86pts (+49.4%) on Polytrack
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 17.01pts (+100.1%) in races worth £4k to £8k
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 34.3pts (+228.7%) in fields of 5-6 runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 19.9pts (+104.7%) after a break of just 11-20 days
  • 5/25 (20%) for 13.3pts (+53.2%) in 3 yo races
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 15.17pts (+108.3%) for jockey Franny Norton
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.27pts (+104.5%) here at Chelmsford

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes amongst others at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!