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Double Dutch, 13th March 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th March 2014

We managed to find another winner yesterday and it was a case of good news and bad news depending on how you view it.

By the time Tee It Up Tommo had run out a 9/4 winner in the very last race of the day, our double was already down, after Cascadia could only finish second earlier in the afternoon. Unfortunately my fancy (and also on Matt's Shortlist) Stoney Quine was withdrawn from the race.

This meant our chances of success were immediately halved, but we got the consolation of a return on the second half of the Stoney Quine / Tommo double.

This paid out 1.63pts, meaning only a small loss on the day.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Cascadia: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/1 pre R4)
Stoney Quine: non-runner (adv 9/2)
---------------------------------
Tee It Up Tommo: won at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Prince Blackthorn: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
178 winning selections from 625 = 28.48%
60 winning bets in 165 days = 36.36%

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Stakes: 326.00pts
Returns: 373.27pts

P/L : +47.27pts (+14.50% ROI)

I'm still swerving Cheltenham (for DD purposes, anyway!), so we're off hurdling/sprinting elsewhere!

4,25 Towcester:

The withdrawal of Bowie from this race seems to have made the task considerably easier for Scots Gaelic here. recent form figures of P3U are admittedly uninspiring, but they don't tell the whole story. He was pulled up 2 out on New Year's Day (2m4f on Soft) and was a battling third, but weakened late on at Musselburgh six weeks ago when beaten by less than 4 lengths over 2m4f on soft ground again, before unseating Jason Maguire at the second last time out.

It's hard to say how well/badly he ran that day, having exited so early, but a drop back to the minimum trip (1 win and 5 places from 8 starts) on better ground at a lower class should set him up nicely for a win at 2/1 BOG with Betfred.

If however, he doesn't run as well as expected, I fully expect Great Link to be there or thereabouts to pick up the pieces. He's lightly raced/unexposed after just six starts to date and only five over hurdles, winning twice. He's 2 from 3 over today's trip and his only other run was over 1m4f at Wolverhampton as recently as 10 weeks ago, when he won by 2.5 lengths staying on. That win suggests he'll not be hanging about between the hurdles, making a live threat at an attractive 7/2 BOG with Stan James for Josh Hamer's only ride of the day and for a trainer he has a very good record with.

*

7.15 Wolverhampton:

Huzzah won back to back contests here at Wolverhampton (7f & 9.5f) before finding the step up to a mile and a half too much of a challenge. He ran well enough, but faded badly late on which suggests he'll be far better suited by the drop back in trip tonight. Talented 7lb claimer Ali Rawlinson is in the saddle here, hoping to improve their 2/4 record together and they are the most likely to win here at an attractive 100/30 BOG (PP & BetVictor).

You could then make claims for two or three of his rivals here today, but I'm going to side with Supa Seeker. A record of 1 win from 35 starts (1/18 flat and 0/17 on A/W) is uninspiring to say the least, but he's a consistent sort and in the last year has made five appearances over course and distance, finishing 23632 in the process. The reasoning (other than this consistency) behind the pick is the presence of Luke Morris in the saddle and the fact that he's now dropped to the same mark (48) as his sole victory to date.

No disrespect to the jockeys who have tried and failed on this horse in the past, but he has finished within a length or so of a winner on several occasions without the aid of what you'd consider a "top" jockey on board and it may just be that Luke is able to just get a little bit more from the horse. There's some value (in my opinion, anyway) in taking a bit of a punt at 5/1 BOG in most places.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Scots Gaelic / Huzzah @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : BetFred & Hills)
Scots Gaelic / Supa Seeker @ 17/1 (2/1 & 5/1 : BetFred)
Great Link / Huzzah @  17.78/1 (100/30 & 100/30 : BetVictor)
Great Link / Supa Seeker @ 26/1 (7/2 & 5/1 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 28th February 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 28th February 2014

Another symmetrical losing day yesterday I'm afraid. We found one too good in both of our selected races and had to settle for second and third in both contests. Close, but not close enough.

Argent Touch was only beaten by three parts of a length at Southwell with Monsieur Lavene a further 1.25 lengths back in third. The market had agreed with us and backed the runner-up into 7/4 favouritism.

In race 2, our main selection Comical Red led until the last hurdle, but was beaten by 3.5 lengths on the run in, having been sent off as the 15/8 fav in from our huge 11/4 advice. Smiles For Miles travelled well but was badly outpaced late on and was another 12 lengths back in third.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Argent Touch: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Monsieur Lavene: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
---------------------------------
Comical Red: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 11/4)
Emell: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 15/8)

Results to date:
164 winning selections from 582 = 28.19%
55 winning bets in 154 days = 35.71%

Stakes: 304.00pts
Returns: 347.63pts

P/L : +43.63pts (+14.35% ROI)

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I'l be looking to tur those placers into winners today starting with the:

4.00 Newbury:

Where the defection of two of the main protagonists (Great Link & Hawaii Five Nil) has hopefully turned a once competitive-looking race into a two-horse shootout between Whispering Harry and Minella Reception, with both of them obviously shorter in price than earlier, courtesy of the two notable withdrawals.

Whispering Harry is currently the 9/4 BOG favourite and comes here in good nick, having finished 3213 in his last four races over the past two months. He gets in here off a good weight, receiving between 2 and 10 pounds from his rivals, which might prove vital on such testing ground. Incidentally, trainer Henry Oliver has saddled up 7 winners from his 17 handicappers priced below 4/1, a 41.2% strike rate which has produced 12.15pts profit to date, an ROI of 71.5%.

Minella Reception, conversely, carries top weight here today, but you can be sure of him giving a decent account of himself on heavy ground. Trainer Rebecca Curtis' horse tend to perform really well in the mud and this one is no exception with a 1251 record on such going. He might well be 2lbs worse off with Daveron today, despite only winning by a head when they met at Ludlow LTO, but our selection absolutely flattened the last hurdle and won have won by much further had he not done so.

My two for this race might well decide to take it on from the front quite early and if that happens, they'll be difficult to peg back with my slight preference being for Minella Reception at 3/1 BOG with betfred.

*

5.35 Wolverhampton:

Huzzah comes here seeking a course hat-trick under Ali Rawlinson within the space of three weeks after comfortable victories over 7f and 9.5f, the latest of which was a 4-lengths win eight days ago. The main question waiting to be answered is how the horse handles the extra 2.5 furlongs from last time out. He shaped like he had plenty in the tank on his latest run and if truth be told not many of the runners here have much form over today's trip.

One of the deciding factors in these apprentice jockeys' handicaps is the ability of the jockey themselves and in Ali Rawlinson, we've one of the best of the current crop. He rides well here at Wolverhampton and has a good record on Mick Appleby's horses and if things go to plan, the 9/4 BOG on offer from BetVictor and Hills might look massive this evening.

Of his rivals, Grandiloquent looks interesting on paper racing off a mark some 27lbs lower than when he last won, but that was 17 races and almost two years ago and combine that with his 0/4 (7646) record here at Wolverhampton, you'd have to leave him alone.

The one I will take to oppose Huzzah is 7/2 BOG shot Fair Breeze who seems to be coming into some decent form again. He finished second here when beaten by Waving over 1m6f almost four weeks ago. Waving was ridden by Ali Rawlinson that day and that horse has gone on to win his next three outings too, which makes Fair Breeze's defeat at 18/1 look very good. Fair Breeze then dropped back to today's trip to win over course and distance eleven days ago, staying on strongly to win by a length and a half.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Whispering Harry / Huzzah @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Whispering Harry / Fair Breeze @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Stan James)
Minella Reception / Huzzah @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : BetVictor & Hills)
Minella Reception / Fair Breeze @ 16.33/1 (3/1 & 100/30 : BetFred)