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Amtiyaz delight for Hollie Doyle in Copper Horse

Amtiyaz and Hollie Doyle just held off the late lunge of Jamie Spencer on Dubious Affair to win the Copper Horse Stakes.

Doyle broke her Royal Ascot duck last year on Scarlet Dragon – but that was in front of empty stands so this success will have meant just as much, coming as it did in front of a restricted crowd of 12,000.

What will have added to Doyle’s delight was that this came in the colours of Imad Al Sagar, her boss.

Trained by John and Thady Gosden, Amtiyaz was having just his second start on turf, but having sat second throughout off a slow pace, Doyle was able to kick at the right time and it proved crucial as Dubious Affair was closing with every stride, before eventually going down by a head.

The 33-1 winner was also providing a second success on the day for the Gosdens, who landed the opening Queen Anne with the odds-on Palace Pier.

Doyle said: “It’s amazing. Last year was incredible but to have the crowd, and some of my family today, makes it even more special.

“I always ride for Mr Gosden with confidence and I knew his level of ability. He’d reached a bit of a ceiling on the all-weather, but he found more back on turf.

“Everything went smoothly and he nicked a few lengths by quickening – I knew he’d stay on well.”

Reshoun just held off the late lunge of Ryan Moore and M C Muldoon to give Ian Williams his second victory in three years in the Ascot Stakes.

Given the race is over two and a half miles it normally falls to a National Hunt trainer, but Williams is one of the most adept dual-purpose handlers in the land and proved it yet again.

Reshoun just hung on for victory
Reshoun just hung on for victory (Steven Paston/PA)

Sent off an unconsidered 66-1 shot in a field of 19, Reshoun only hit the front deep inside the final furlong after Frankie Dettori had made what looked a race-winning move on Golden Rules.

Ryan Moore began to fly from the clouds on Willie Mullins’ M C Muldoon, but the line came just in time for Reshoun and William Buick and they held on by a short head.

Rachael Blackmore finished fifth on Cape Gentleman, on what was her first Royal Ascot ride.

Williams said: “The current form of my horses is good. He ran a big race in the Chester Cup and I said to William the important thing is to get him out today as he’d been slack at the start.

“The boys at home had been working with him and I could not actually believe how sharp he was out of the gate. He was in front early, but then it was a case of if he stayed.

“He got taken off his feet a bit taken in. I actually thought he wasn’t staying, so I turned my attentions to Mancini and next time I looked for him he was plugging away and stayed strongly to the line.

“This horse has done Marwan (Koukash, owner) proud. He’d be wishing it was at Chester. He’s done me proud me, too!

“It’s tough to win any race here and the competitiveness of the whole meeting is only second to Cheltenham.

“He’ll probably going back to Chester. Marwan will be keen for him to go back there.”

However, there was a real sting in the tail for Buick afterwards, as the stewards deemed he was guilty of using his whip “above the permitted level and down the shoulder in the forehand from approaching the final two furlongs”.

The rider, who is currently tied at the top of the jockeys’ championship with Oisin Murphy, was suspended for 11 days and fined £1,150. His ban is due to start on June 29.

Juan Elcano bounced back to his best
Juan Elcano bounced back to his best (David Davies/PA)

Juan Elcano came with a rousing late run to win for the first time since his debut in the Wolferton Stakes.

Always highly regarded by Kevin Ryan, he finished fifth of 15 in Kameko’s 2000 Guineas but had seemingly failed to progress.

However, racing for the first time since a wind operation the son of Frankel once again showed what he was made of.

Sent off at 14-1, Juan Elcano looked to face a stiff task with two furlongs to run as there was still a wall of horses in front of him.

Tom Marquand had kicked clear by then on Joseph O’Brien’s Patrick Sarsfield and having had the run of the race he looked sure to oblige, only for Juan Elcano to sprout wings once in the clear.

Andrea Atzeni pushed him out with hands and heels to win by half a length, with Solid Stone, the 4-1 joint-favourite along with Patrick Sarsfield, back in third.

Ryan said: “We’ve always held him in the highest regard and he ran in some nice races as a three-year-old.

“This year I thought we had him back, but he disappointed first time out so we decided to tweak his wind – obviously it’s done the trick.

“He quickened up nicely today, he likes a nice pace to run at and got that today.”

Reshoun repels M C Muldoon in Ascot Stakes

Reshoun just held off the late lunge of Ryan Moore and M C Muldoon to give Ian Williams his second victory in three years in the Ascot Stakes.

Given the race is over two and a half miles it normally falls to a National Hunt trainer, but Williams is one of the most adept dual-purpose handlers in the land and proved it yet again.

Sent off an unconsidered 66-1 shot in a field of 19, Reshoun only hit the front deep inside the final furlong after Frankie Dettori had made what looked a race-winning move on Golden Rules.

Ryan Moore began to fly from the clouds on Willie Mullins’ M C Muldoon, but the line came just in time for Reshoun and William Buick and they held on by a short head.

Rachael Blackmore finished fifth on Cape Gentleman, on what was her first Royal Ascot ride.

Williams said: “The current form of my horses is good. He ran a big race in the Chester Cup and I said to William the important thing is to get him out today as he’d been slack at the start.

“The boys at home had been working with him and I could not actually believe how sharp he was out of the gate. He was in front early, but then it was a case of if he stayed.

“He got taken off his feet a bit taken in. I actually thought he wasn’t staying, so I turned my attentions to Mancini and next time I looked for him he was plugging away and stayed strongly to the line.

“This horse has done Marwan (Koukash, owner) proud. He’d be wishing it was at Chester. He’s done me proud me, too!

“It’s tough to win any race here and the competitiveness of the whole meeting is only second to Cheltenham.

“He’ll probably going back to Chester. Marwan will be keen for him to go back there.”

Juan Elcano came with a rousing late run to win for the first time since his debut in the Wolferton Stakes.

Always highly regarded by Kevin Ryan, he finished fifth of 15 in Kameko’s 2000 Guineas but had seemingly failed to progress.

However, racing for the first time since a wind operation the son of Frankel once again showed what he was made of.

Sent off at 14-1, Juan Elcano looked to face a stiff task with two furlongs to run as there was still a wall of horses in front of him.

Tom Marquand had kicked clear by then on Joseph O’Brien’s Patrick Sarsfield and having had the run of the race he looked sure to oblige, only for Juan Elcano to sprout wings once in the clear.

Andrea Atzeni pushed him out with hands and heels to win by half a length, with Solid Stone, the 4-1 joint-favourite along with Patrick Sarsfield, back in third.

Ryan said: “We’ve always held him in the highest regard and he ran in some nice races as a three-year-old.

“This year I thought we had him back, but he disappointed first time out so we decided to tweak his wind – obviously it’s done the trick.

“He quickened up nicely today, he likes a nice pace to run at and got that today.”

Dash delight for Williams and Egan with Mokaatil

Mokaatil was a surprise 25-1 winner of the World Pool “Dash” Handicap for trainer Ian Williams and jockey David Egan.

The five-furlong contest was as fast and furious as ever, with Son And Sannie blazing the early trail down the middle of the track before his stride just started to shorten reaching the final furlong.

Mokaatil was just hitting top gear at that point and once he assumed the lead, he stretched right out to win by a length and a half.

Only Spoofing took second, with Stone Of Destiny third.

Egan said: “It’s a lovely way to break the duck. It’s my first Dash, so it’s brilliant.

“It’s been a little while coming. I’ve been riding here since I was a 7lb claimer without managing to come home in front, so hopefully they’ll come like London buses from now on!

“He’s a horse that’s been running over six and seven furlongs. He was able to jump the gates well and get a position without me having to put him under too much pressure for the first half of the race. He went way past the line and he’d have no trouble going back up to six.”

Williams admitted he was not certain the Epsom five furlongs would suit his charge, who has also won over six in the past.

He said: “It was a bold move really and we weren’t sure we’d done the right thing, but when the rain came that was going to help him a bit and he’s put up probably a career-best performance, which was great.

“The gentlemen that own him enjoy their racing and we spoke today about coming here and enjoying the moment, see how we go, and they’ve walked away with the winner of the Dash. It’s fantastic, we’re all happy.”

He added: “David did a very good job of getting an early position, he kept him in the race when he could have been taken off his feet and, to be fair, he finished very strongly, like a horse who does stay a bit further.

“I just thought if we were running over this sort of trip, he’s going to want every bit of help he can, he’s not going to be pulling too hard so (the blinkers) worked a treat today.”

“I’d love to say this has been in the book for the last six months and it’s a big plan, but I think we’ve been very fortunate with the way the race has been run and he’s run very well, so we’ll take him home and see what we do next – and what the handicapper does next.”

Williams and Egan made it a sprint double as Ejtilaab landed the closing Cazoo Handicap over six furlongs.

Sent off the 3-1 favourite, the five-year-old fended grabbed the lead in the shadow of the post to beat Muscika a neck, on a day that also saw Egan partner 50-1 shot Mojo Star to second place in the Cazoo Derby.

Williams said: “It was a smart enough display. A friend of a friend said run this horse over six as he will really enjoy it.

“They went very hard up front and I was confident from about two out that he would pick them up as you knew he would stay.

“It is a tough race to win this race. It is a bit strange this ground today and I don’t know how the form will hold up, but you can do no more than win.

“There is the Stewards’ Cup, but I was thinking more of an Ayr Gold Cup for him as he will get his ground and it will be a test of stamina with a horse that can hold a position early on.

“I’m used to winning three-mile chases around Newton Abbot on a Saturday and I’ve now won two races on Derby day, which is something else and quite exceptional.”

Monday Musings: Haggas a Dab Hand with Addeybb

On February 6th 1954, two years to the day after her accession to the throne, Her Majesty the Queen, on a Royal visit to Australia, was present at Randwick racecourse, Sydney, to witness the first running of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, writes Tony Stafford.

Inaugurated by the Australian Jockey Club in 1851 in honour of Queen Victoria, it was staged as the Queens Plate throughout her reign. Later it became the AJC Plate with single-year editions in 1928 and 1934 as the King’s Plate, honouring the present Queen’s grand-father, King George V.

Early on the morning of the funeral of HRH Prince Philip, her husband of 73 years, Englishmen William Haggas (trainer) and Ton Marquand (jockey) fittingly won the 4millionAust$ 2021 Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes with the seven-year-old gelding Addeybb in the colours of Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, youngest and least publicised of the four Maktoum brothers who so transformed UK and world racing.

Like the Queen, Sheikh Ahmed has had a recent family death to endure after Sheikh Hamdan, second in terms of age of the quartet and mastermind of Shadwell Farm, passed away last month in the week leading up to the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan.

So, 67 years after that initial running, the QE Stakes is still going strong. In its pre-QE history it was won by many of Australia’s best horses, none more so than the legendary Phar Lap, winner of the Plate in 1930.

That was in the midst of a late-flowering career that brought a sequence of wins (career total 37/51) after a halting start. Sent to race in the US, he started with a track record before dying in agony after what was subsequently identified as a massive dose of arsenic. It is believed that his murder was at the behest of criminal elements worried that Phar Lap would be a threat to the profitability of the Mafia’s illegal bookmakers.

Tulloch, another Australian great, won 36, finished second in 12 and third in four of his 53 starts, with only one unplaced. This despite his being off the track injured for a full two years after his three-year-old campaign. He won the Randwick race in 1958, 1960 and 1961.

Tulloch was the only triple winner since 1954 until along came Winx. The great mare had won her first three races, then went the next seven with only a single victory before embarking on a 33-race unbeaten spree until the end of her career.

Three consecutive Queen Elizabeth Stakes fell to her spell, the last at 10-1 on as a seven-year-old in 2019 after which she retired having won 37 of 43 starts and, helped by the massive prize of the Sydney race, with world-record earnings and Group 1 wins.

Winx’s retirement left a vacancy in 2020 and William Haggas, who sent down the then six-year-old Addeybb, previously best known as a mudlark, was aiming to fill the void.  Addeybb, another late bloomer, first hit the headlines when winning the Lincoln on his four-year-old reappearance and had won six races and finished second to Magical in the 2019 Champion Stakes before that first Australian jaunt.

On March 21 last year, five days after the first lockdown was announced by Boris Johnson, Tom Marquand was in Sydney to ride Addeybb in the Ranvet Stakes and in the first of four memorable clashes with the two-years-younger Verry Elleegant <what an inelegant name!> beat her by half a length.

Five weeks later – Marquand having been marooned away from partner Hollie Doyle by Covid19 restrictions – he enjoyed a more emphatic defeat of the filly in the QE II.

The relative exploits of the two developing stars between that day and last month again in the Ranvet Stakes where they renewed their rivalry, was stark, largely governed by the need for Haggas to take account of his horse’s tough time away from home base.

He fashioned a minutely-planned three-race home campaign, returning to finish an excellent runner-up to Lord North in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then duly collected the Listed Land Of Burns Stakes at Ayr before winning another big pot, the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot, where he avenged defeats by both Magical and Lord North. A 9-1 shot, he also numbered the Gosdens’ future Middle East money-spinner Mishriff among his victims.

Meanwhile, Verry Elleegant was making hay at home.  After a break she won over a mile in August; was fourth in September and was victorious twice in October over a mile then a mile and a half before stretching out with a creditable seventh in the two-mile Melbourne Cup. Freshened up, the mare was third and then won, both races in February, before lining up for the Ranvet last month.

Fully conditioned, she got the better of a possibly ring-rusty Addeybb, but memorably on Saturday, the Haggas horse gained fulsome revenge. As a gelding and given the trainer’s skill with older horses, he could easily return next year aiming to match the three-time exploits of Tulloch and Winx.

I’ve been remiss in not yet collecting my always-valued copy of Horses In Training as I’ve been nowhere for more than a year and the usual sources either at Cheltenham or from Tindalls In Newmarket High Street have been unavailable.

I do see this morning that I can get it from Amazon at a discounted price of 20 quid so when I finish these words I’ll get a move on. It will be interesting to see the status of the Haggas string which numbered 199 last year. One definite change will be among the stable’s trio of assistant trainers as Harry Eustace is now training in his own right.

He has succeeded his father James, who ended a 30-year stint at the end of last season and his son is sure to have learnt plenty. I believe he (and possibly brother David) spent time in Australia learning his trade as did George Boughey who has been pulling up trees in his early training career.

I know they were house-mates in that hothouse of thrusting young training talent a few years back with George Scott, who was a little in front of his colleagues in his career. Others there included Ed Crisford, who now shares the billing with father Simon and James Ferguson, son of John, former colleague of Simon Crisford for many years in running Sheikh Mohammed’s racing affairs in the UK and Dubai in the winter.

It’s become fashionable for trainers to hand over either joint-, as in the case of John and Thady Gosden, or outright, like Eustace and also the Bethells up in Middleham. Listed as assistant trainer in last year’s HIT, Edward Bethell has taken over seamlessly from father James at the palatial Thorngill Stables just outside Middleham and threatens to take the family fortunes by storm.

He’s already up to the six-winner mark from only 28 runners and the recent victories of Briardale (twice), Grantley and Blu Boy, his by miles and a in a canter, threaten an explosion. There were 30 horses in last year’s Bethell team. I can imagine a flood of new owners wishing to take part in what looks sure to be an exciting project and sending horses to him.

Yesterday, two meetings delayed from Saturday to free up mid-afternoon for The Duke’s funeral made for exciting viewing and Al Aasy promises to be another potential Group 1 horse for the Haggas stable and in the colours of Shadwell Farm. Not a home-bred, Al Aasy easily won the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (the John Porter to you and me)  and will be following in Addeybb’s footsteps no doubt as the season progresses.

Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting was one of the last jumping highlights in the UK before the domestic season ends next Saturday at Sandown. Harry Skelton’s inexorable pursuit then rapid-fire passing and drawing clear of Brian Hughes has all but clinched his first title and you have to think that with brother Dan’s fire-power and a greater readiness to take nice outside rides, he could be in for a longish spell in the number one spot. Congratulations to jockey, trainer and of course father Nick whose determination to support his sons was only exceeded by the far-sighted planning to set up their operation.

I would also like to congratulate Ian Williams for a superb training achievement in sending out One More Fleurie to win the highly-competitive novice handicap chase over three miles at Ayr.

Setting off in front, the gelding jumped every one of the 19 fences like an assured veteran, easily kept ahead of his 12 rivals throughout and stretched away for a six-and-a-half-length success with Charlie Todd not having to do much more than steer.

The exhibition was one almost of an automaton so perfect were the parabolas he executed at every fence. He didn’t gain his first career win, off a mark of 105 on his third chasing start, until seven weeks ago. He won twice more, with only a concentration lapse in between at Fakenham spoiling the sequence. This was his fourth success, now off 23lb higher than the initial winning mark.

It is easy to imagine him one day coming back to Ayr for a Scottish Grand National, or with his mix of stamina – he was going away from talented rivals rather than coming back yesterday – and jumping prowess, later on winning a Grand National.

Ian Williams is one of the truly versatile trainers who can win with any type of horse, but One More Fleurie could put him and his young rider deservedly onto a different level.  I reckon he’ll be elevated to somewhere near 138 – those iniquitous handicappers are never very lenient with Ian’s winners – so that means he will probably get in the Ladbroke Handicap Chase <Hennessy> next November. Cloth Cap won it this season off 136, so go on Ian - fill your boots!

Red Infantry gallops to Grimthorpe glory

Red Infantry gave a gutsy display in the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster to star in an across-the-card treble for trainer Ian Williams.

By ending a winning run going back to November 2018, the 11-year-old could have earned himself a place in either the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter or more likely the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown next month.

Red Infantry (8-1) gave everything for Charlie Todd to make virtually all the running as the pair fought off all-comers in the Town Moor feature.

He was headed by Special Prep after jumping the final fence, but rallied in splendid fashion to get back close home and get the verdict by a head. Canelo, the 13-8 favourite, was seven lengths away in third place.

Williams said: “It was a great result. The ground and everything came right for him. He had a bit of time off with an injury, but he’s run to his best today.

“He’s not the easiest to ride and Charlie has given him a great ride on what is probably one of his last opportunities to ride as 5lb claimer.

“Whether he goes for the Midlands National or we might hang on to him for Sandown (the bet365 Gold Cup) remains to be seen, depending on how he comes out of today.

“He’s won around there (Sandown) and likes it there. That’s probably the plan.”

It was a great day for Williams, who also took the Listed Virgin Bet Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle with 40-1 shot Dragon Bones, while Always Resolute struck at Newbury.

A delighted Todd said of Red Infantry: “He fought all the way to the line. I always felt he was going to cling on.

“He didn’t run badly here the last day. The step up in trip definitely helped.

“The change of tactics helped – go a good gallop and make use of a low weight. We just gave it a good go.

“I don’t think it’s quite sunk in yet.”

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, unable to challenge winner, stayed on and closing close home but failed by a neck)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Matewan @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

A consistent sort whose SR rating of 85 is a good way ahead of his rivals here today. Those last 5 runs shown above (22221) were all on the All-Weather over today's trip immediately following a win at Ripon, also over this trip on good to soft ground. He has one win and one runner-up finish from two runs on this track, he has three wins and four runner-up places from eight efforts at this trip and of his overall four career wins...

  • all were at 4/1 or shorter
  • all in fields of 6-9 runners
  • all in handicap company
  • three at Class 4
  • three in cheekpieces
  • three going right handed

My other area of interest here is the jockey booking, because although Adam Kirby doesn't ride many of Ian Williams' horses, I'm going to suggest it's not because they don't work well together, because they've actually got a great record of...

from which...

  • male runners are 20/58 (34.5%) for 30.46pts (+52.5%)
  • those competing for £2k to £8k are 20/49 (40.8%) for 39.46pts (+80.5%)
  • those sent off shorter than a 6/1 official SP are 19/40 (47.5%) for 33.24pts (+83.1%)
  • 3 to 5 yr olds are 15/38 (39.5%) for 33.06pts (+87%)
  • those racing against 4 to 8 rivals are 13/32 (40.6%) for 14.07pts (+44%)
  • class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 6.12pts (+61.2%)
  • and here on the July course : 1/1 (100%) for 0.77pts (+7.7%)

...whilst Williams + Kirby + males + 6/1 max SP + sub-£8k winner's prize produces...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Matewan @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!