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Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Huraiz @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, unable to challenge winner, stayed on and closing close home but failed by a neck)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Matewan @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

A consistent sort whose SR rating of 85 is a good way ahead of his rivals here today. Those last 5 runs shown above (22221) were all on the All-Weather over today's trip immediately following a win at Ripon, also over this trip on good to soft ground. He has one win and one runner-up finish from two runs on this track, he has three wins and four runner-up places from eight efforts at this trip and of his overall four career wins...

  • all were at 4/1 or shorter
  • all in fields of 6-9 runners
  • all in handicap company
  • three at Class 4
  • three in cheekpieces
  • three going right handed

My other area of interest here is the jockey booking, because although Adam Kirby doesn't ride many of Ian Williams' horses, I'm going to suggest it's not because they don't work well together, because they've actually got a great record of...

from which...

  • male runners are 20/58 (34.5%) for 30.46pts (+52.5%)
  • those competing for £2k to £8k are 20/49 (40.8%) for 39.46pts (+80.5%)
  • those sent off shorter than a 6/1 official SP are 19/40 (47.5%) for 33.24pts (+83.1%)
  • 3 to 5 yr olds are 15/38 (39.5%) for 33.06pts (+87%)
  • those racing against 4 to 8 rivals are 13/32 (40.6%) for 14.07pts (+44%)
  • class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 6.12pts (+61.2%)
  • and here on the July course : 1/1 (100%) for 0.77pts (+7.7%)

...whilst Williams + Kirby + males + 6/1 max SP + sub-£8k winner's prize produces...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Matewan @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!