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Stat of the Day, 17th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.50 Huntingdon : Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd going well after 3 out, soon poised to challenge, led next, clear when went right and not fluent last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4464 to the winner...  

Why?

A shorter priced pick than usual (but 2/1 BOG or better should still be worth taking) admittedly, but the statistical evidence is quite compelling about this 4 yr old filly who was a winner at Nottingham seven days ago staying on well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill who was riding her for the first time that day.

Her overall record of 2 wins, 3 places from 12 is neither good nor bad, I'd say, but of those 12 outings, she is...

  • 2+2/8 since moving to Ian Williams
  • 2+2/6 at Class 5
  • 2+1/6 going left handed
  • and 1/1 after a break of 7 days or less

Trainer Ian Williams has his string in great form right now with 16 winners from 74 (21.6% SR) for 37.3pts (+50.4% ROI) profit over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 15/61 (24.6%) for 47pts (+77%)
  • on the Flat : 10/44 (22.7%) for 29.4pts (+66.8%)
  • over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 3/15 920%) for 30.35pts (+202.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.7pts (+440.8%)
  • ridden by Kieran O'Neill : 2/9 (22.2%) for 5.46pts (+60.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft : 2/8 925%) for 24.23pts (+302.9%)

Ian's horses have tended to go well with Kieran in the saddle this year, winning 5 of 15 (33.3% SR) for 6.92pts (+46.1%), all on the Flat and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+68.6%) in Flat handicaps, including...

  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.05pts (+115%) on females
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.65pts (+432.5%) over 8.5 furlongs or shorter
  • 1/1 (100%) for 6.59pts (+659%) at Class 5
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.06pts (+206%) here at Bath

I stated earlier that Pure Shores won last time out a week ago and it's also worth noting that over the last five (inc. this one) Flat seasons, Ian's LTO winners are 31/117 (26.5% SR) for 43pts (+36.8% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today...

  • in hcps : 28/108 (25.9%) for 30.5pts (+28.2%)
  • 1-30 days since last run : 28/86 (32.6%) for 62.4pts (+72.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 28/73 (38.4%) for 45.7pts (+62.6%)
  • at a mile or shorter : 12/40 (30%) for 45.5pts (+113.7%)
  • 1-10 dslr : 13/24 (54.2%) for 32.1pts (+133.6%)
  • and at C5 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 15.8pts (+87.7%)

And seeing that Pure Shores ran just seven days ago, should we be concerned about a quick turnaround? The last six (inc this one) seasons figures say not. They show that Ian's Flat handicappers are 26/92 (28.3% SR) for 50.4pts (+54.8% ROI) within a week of their last outing and with today's race in mind, those 92 are...

  • 24/81 (29.6%) for 56.8pts (+70.1%) after running on the Flat LTO
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 57pts (+73.1%) as 4-8 yr olds
  • 23/52 (44.2%) for 39.3pts (+75.6%) sent off shorter than 7/1
  • 12/24 (50%) for 56.1pts (+233.6%) in September/October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.8pts (+118%) as LTO winners
  • 6/10 (60%) for 25.46pts (+254.6%) in October
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.39pts (+46.5%) with Kieran in the saddle.

And considering that it looks like Pure Shores will go off as favourite, it's interested to note that Kieran O'Neill has ridden 17 favourites this year so far, winning 11 times (64.7% SR) generating level stakes profits of 16.24pts (+95.5% ROI) with five of the six losers making the frame! Of the 17 rides this year...

  • hcps = 8/11 (72.7%) for 13.71pts (+124.6%)
  • Flat = 7/9 (77.8%) for 9.38pts (+104.2%)
  • and in Flat hcps? Just 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 7.99pts (+133.1%) with the only blot on the results page being a runner-up!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG, a price offered by several firms from 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. Bet365 were the first to show and actually offered 3/1 BOG for the best part of 90 minutes! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.30 Chepstow : Swendab @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led after 1f, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Fillies' Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly might well be a seven-race maiden but having made the frame on 5 (3 of which were at a higher grade than today) of those 7 outings, she certainly is due a win and she ran particularly well last time out just six days ago and it is hoped that a first time visor might just eke a little more out of her here to break her duck.

Her trainer Ian Williams has been successful at this venue over the years, saddling up 27 winners from 176 (15.3% SR) for profits of 40pts (+22.% ROI) since 2008 and these include...

  • 23/75 (30.7%) for 59.48pts (+79.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 53.27pts (+88.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 39.83pts (+76.6%) on Good to Firm
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 31.5pts (+70%) at Class 5
  • and 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.41pts (+87.6%) after resting for 10 days or less

This quick turnaround of a horse last seen 6 days ago is a successful strategy adopted by Ian Williams who has had 136 winners from 545 (24.95% SR) for 224.8pts (+41.25% ROI) profit since 2010 with horses turned back out just 4 to 10 days after their last run (resting not rusting, I call it) and of these 545 quick returners...

  • Handicaps : 113/438 (25.8%) for 253.8pts (+58%)
  • Flat : 50/178 (28.1%) for 69.2pts (+38.9%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 44/155 (28.4%) for 70.43pts (+45.44%)

...and finally, it;s worth looking at Ian's record with horses wearing a visor for the first time, as since 2010, this approach has found him 19 winners from 100 (19% SR) and profits of 87.19pts (+87.19% ROI), from which...

  • Handicaps : 15/84 (17.9%) for 86.7pts (+103.2%)
  • Flat : 12/43 (27.9%) for 91.7pts |(+213.2%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 9/38 (23.7%) for 89.39pts (+235.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOGa price offered by 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.13pm on Wednesday. Bet365 however are offering 11/4 BOG so grab that if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Goodwood : Threading @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Chased clear leading pair until 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Doro 7/2 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner when last seen 43 days ago. That was a Class 5 contest over 5f and she needed pretty much every last yard of the trip, staying on strongly to grab the win in the closing stages to win by a neck, suggesting that an extra furlong today might help her, as indeed should a drop in class.

To date, she has won 2 of 3 Flat handicaps, she's 2 from 3 on Good ground and 2 from 2 in Flat handicaps on Good ground, whilst trainer Ian Williams' LTO winners sent back out at odds of 1/2 to 11/2 are 123/373 (33% SR) for 39.5pts (+10.6% ROI) over the last ten years, including of relevance today...

  • 5/6 yr olds : 59/165 (35.8%) for 38.8pts (+23.5%)
  • on Good ground : 39/104 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+36.7%)
  • on the Flat : 33/97 (34%) for 29.3pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/73 (39.7%) for 20.5pts (+28.1%)
  • and over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 13/41 (31.7%) for 13.2pts (+32.2%)

Jim Crowley is in the saddle today and since 2008, he is 16 from 93 (17.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+62.5% ROI) on horses trained by Ian Williams, including of note today...

  • in handicaps : 15/71 (21.1%) for 75pts (+105.7%)
  • on the Flat : 11/61 (18%) for 41.1pts (+67.3%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/42 (31%) for 30.8pts (+73.3%)
  • at 21 to 45 days since the horse's last run : 8/32 (25%) for 74.6pts (+233.2%)
  • and since the start of 2016 : 9/25 (36%) for 34.25pts (+137%)

...AND...on Flat handicappers priced at 7/1 and shorter : 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.3% ROI), with a 7 from 8 record (87.5%) producing 29.47pts (+368.3%) over the last two seasons...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dr Doro 7/2 BOGa price available from SkyBet, 10Bet and Sport Pesa at 6.20pm on Friday whilst Bet365 were the best on offer at 4/1 BOG , but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Hill can reach Gold Cup Summit for Twiston-Davies

All eyes will be on Cheltenham this weekend, and today’s piece focuses on Saturday’s BetVictor Gold Cup.

The Grade Three began life as the Mackeson Gold Cup and was first run in 1960. Starting as a two-mile chase, the trip was upped to 2m4f in the late 60s. Martin Pipe is the most successful trainer with eight victories, seven of those coming in a devastating spell from 1996 to 2005.

In recent years Jonjo O’Neill (3 wins), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2) and Paul Nicholls (2) have all enjoyed plenty of success in the race. Seven-year-olds have a terrific record of late, with six wins from the last 10. Indeed, the race tends to go to a progressive young chaser, often in their second season over the larger obstacles.

Despite the race often attracting a large field, upsets have proved rare. Only one of the last 10 winners could be described as unfancied, though in that period only one favourite has struck gold. As is often the case at the Home of Jump racing, previous track experience is a huge positive. Seven of the past 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham. This racecourse is a unique test, and many horses fail the strenuous examination.

The favourite for Saturday’s renewal is top-weight Kylemore Lough, now trained by Harry Fry. Lumping just shy of 12 stone is often a reason to dismiss a horse in such handicaps, but last year’s winner carried 11-11, and four of the last 12 winners have coped with more than 11 stone on their back. This fella has enough Cheltenham experience, and appears to act on the track, though he’s finished fifth in his last two visits. He came close to winning the Caspian Caviar Chase last December (now 2lb lower), and a repeat of that performance would see him go extremely close. Can Fry get more out of him than Kerry Lee? I’m a fan, and I fancy he’ll run well.

The Alan Fleming-trained Tully East is next best in the betting. A second-season chaser, he won at the Cheltenham Festival in March, when ridden beautifully by Denis O’Regan. He travelled like a dream that day and appeared to win with something to spare. Nevertheless, he’s 10lb higher in the handicap, and though he has the right profile, he’ll find this race much tougher to win. He’s a player, though I worry about that handicap mark. Another concern is the poor record of Irish raiders.

Paul Nicholls has a couple of entrants, and both are prominent in the betting. Le Prezien has track winning form, though was runner-up on his last visit, when finding Foxtail Hill impossible to pass. The pair had a mighty tussle in October at two-miles, though the extra half-a-mile should prove no obstacle. The pair are handicapped to finish side by side again, and you’d fancy both will go close. They’re tough to separate.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Nicholls’ other hope is five-year-old Romain De Senam. He’s won his last two, but is up 6lbs and will find this tough. He was runner-up in the Fred Winter of 2016, and probably should have won that day. The track and trip look ideal, and Nicholls took this race in 2014 with Caid Du Berlais, also aged five. I can see him getting outpaced coming down the hill, but I fancy he’ll be finishing well. He has the right amount of experience, but I worry he’ll have too much to do turning for home.

Ballyalton is an interesting contender. Back from injury, the Ian Williams-trained 10-year-old tuned up for this with a promising run over hurdles at Aintree. He won over course and distance at the Cheltenham Festival of 2016, and clearly enjoys his trips to Prestbury Park. He’s on a competitive mark, though his age is a negative based on the trends. Only three horses over nine have won the race.

The Pipe team have an outstanding record, though David has only managed the one success. Starchitect is two from seven over fences, and has a fair bit to find on Foxtail Hill, from their run at the course in April. Though talented, I don’t think this fella is quite good enough to win in this company.

One that is on a steep-upward curve is Jamie Snowdon’s Double Treasure. The six-year-old beat Two Taffs last time, though the runner-up was having his first outing of the campaign. He’s progressed dramatically over the Summer, but needs to find more if he is to be competitive here. Despite his four wins on the bounce, I fancy this could be a step too far.

There’s a couple I quite like at a price for the each-way punters out there. Theinval is trained by Nicky Henderson and was incredibly consistent during his first season over fences. He has some decent pieces of form to his name, especially the second-place finish to Cloudy Dream at Ayr in April. The sensational Fondmort won this race for Henderson in 2003, and this fella has a far better chance than his 25/1 odds suggest.

Another that interests me is the Twiston-Davies second string Splash Of Ginge. He rarely wins over fences, but his handicap mark has fell through the floor since the dizzy heights of 2015. He’s run well at Cheltenham in the past, and his last performance was encouraging. More rain would help, though I’m still tempted.

Greedy I know, but I’ll be backing three in the race. I fancy Nigel Twiston-Davies could have a day to remember, and I’ll be taking Foxtail Hill to win. He looks incredibly tough and is two from four in recent visits to the track. I’ll also have a little on Splash Of Ginge in the hope that the track and an eye-catching handicap mark spark a revival. Finally, I’ll be putting a couple of quid on Henderson’s seven-year-old Theinval. I’m convinced he’ll go close, though I do worry about his ability to cope with the famous hill.

Best of luck to all those having a punt.

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.50 Bangor : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1 In touch, headway 3 out, chased leaders next, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 2.75 lengths.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

Featuring a 5 yr old gelding who arrives here in decent nick having finished 132 in his last three outings and was only held off by a neck last time out. That was here at Chelmsford a week ago over 7f when staying on well and finishing strongest.

The winning line came fractionally too soon for him that day, so I expect the extra furlong to help him here in his bid to improve an already decent looking return of 5 wins from 22 (22.7% SR) on the A/W, including...

  • 5 wins & 4 places from 13 at Classes 5 & 6
  • 4 wins & 3 places from 7 in September to November
  • 2 wins & 3 places from 6 on Polytrack
  • and 2 wins and a place from four 12/13 runner races.

His trainer, Ian Williams, has had 8 winners from 27 (29.6% SR) runners in Class 5/6 contests here at Chelmsford to date and a simple £10 bet on each would have produced £92.10 profit, not earth shattering, but (a) enough for a night out and more importantly (b) an ROI of 34.1%!

Of these 27 lower grade runners here...

  • males are 8/23 (34.8%) for 13.21pts (+57.4%)
  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 7/20 (35%) for 4.09pts (+20.45%)
  • finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.8%)

AND...his lower grade males running over 7 to 10 furlongs here after a losing top 4 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 12.54pts (+139.4%)

Yet, for as impressive as the above numbers might be, they do lack the usual SotD meatiness of sample size, so  I'll divert you to the fact that this one is turned back out pretty quickly after last Thursday's defeat, because this is one of Ian Williams' preferred methods, as since the start of 2011, his runners who have rested for less than 10 days are 107/436 (24.5% SR) for 147.1pts (+33.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 93/356 (26.1%) for 185.7pts (+52.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/178 (21.4%) for 109.7pts (+61.6%)
  • and in A/W handicaps : 33/153 (21.6%) for 115.5pts (+75.5%)

...and from the above 153 quickly turned around A/W handicappers...

  •  those running on Polytrack are 27/111 (24.3%) for 87pts (+78.4%)
  • those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 21/73 (28.8%) for 34.8pts (+47.7%)
  • those racing against 11 or 12 opponents are 11/39 (28.2%) for 106.8pts (+273.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.23pts (+58.1%)

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betwayat 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: Under The Radar

Nine years ago, while writing a similar column to this in a since defunct organ, I remember eulogising about a horse that must lay claim not just to having gone under the radar, but simply evading all attention, writes Tony Stafford.

By the time of his sixth successive victory, having won twice as a late-season juvenile, and at three, adding a Conditions race and a Listed event before collecting the 20-runner Prix du Jockey Club and the Prix Niel (Group 2), he went to the Arc unbeaten despite never having started favourite.

That’s right, even after gallantly holding Famous Name (eventual winner of 21 of 38 starts, all bar one at Group 2, 3 or Listed level) at Chantilly, he did not even head the market for his Arc trial. He won it only narrowly – his sole win at a mile and a half - so maybe fifth around three lengths behind Zarkava and one adrift of Youmzain and Soldier of Fortune was decent enough in a first defeat.

In four seasons’ racing he won ten of his 17 starts, collecting £2.5 million, bolstered by further Group 1’s, the Prix Ganay, a Prince of Wales and a Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin. A son of dual Group 1 winner but equally unheralded Chichicastenango – what a great name – he would have been even more formidable had he truly stayed the Classic distance.

Vision d’Etat always showed a turn of foot, so when he retired to the Haras de Grandcamp at a fee of €6,000, there were plenty of takers. Among a numerous second crop, divided between Pur Sang (fully thoroughbred) and AQPS (effectively non-thoroughbred) mares was a filly out of the Saint des Saints mare Santa Bamba called De Bon Coeur.

Yesterday at Auteuil on the traditional closing day of their Autumn season and ridden by James Reveley, she made it eight wins in nine starts over hurdles (she fell when cantering clear in the other) in the Prix Renaud du Vivier, the 4yo Champion Hurdle.

Her maternal grand sire, the aforementioned Saint des Saints, never raced on the Flat and in a 14-race career competed exclusively at Auteuil. He won six of 12 hurdles and the first of two chases, being switched back to the smaller obstacles after falling in his next race over fences.

As a sire he has excelled, notably with Willie Mullins’ top-class chaser Djakadam, but it is arguable whether he has produced anything with more potential than De Bon Coeur. In his racing days he three times had to give best to the great Marly River, including in this same 4yo championship race.

As in all her runs where I have found race comments, she has been allowed to sit in behind the leaders until mid-race when, as was the case yesterday, Reveley has taken her to the front. It took some believing to witness the way she carried herself clear of her field before the home turn without any obvious encouragement from the jockey and drew away to win untroubled by ten lengths from the best of her generation. Seven of her eight wins have been achieved by between seven and 12 lengths.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Two years ago Blue Dragon won the same race with equal authority and he remains at the top of France’s hurdling tree, even allowing for the fact that he has had some alarming late capitulations on occasion.

So far there is no sign that De Bon Coeur has similar frailties and yesterday’s times take as much believing as the raw visual impression of the race. There were two other races run over the same 3900 metres (just short of two and a half miles) trip.  She was nine seconds (maybe 150 yards) faster than the earlier Listed handicap won by a smart gelding and more than 13 seconds faster than a classy Martalane filly in another, worth 22K to the winner.

Vision d’Etat switched studs for this season to Haras du Treban where he stood at €2,800. I expect they will be busy next year and beyond!

There were a couple of striking performances at Navan yesterday, the Mullins five-year-old Footpad making a spectacular debut over fences suggesting he will be hard to leave out of Arkle Chase consideration next spring. Footpad, a French-bred, actually returned to his homeland for last year’s Prix Renaud du Vivier and was only narrowly beaten into second by the outsider Capivari. That race was run only four seconds faster than one of the handicaps.

The second smart performance came from another French import, Apple’s Jade, in the Lismullen Hurdle. Once with Mullins, she was moved, along with many of the Gigginstown House horses, to Gordon Elliott and the daughter of Saddler Maker will be competitive in all the big hurdles this winter.

If connections of Pallasator had expected (as I confess I did!) him to follow his charity race romp with a debut win over hurdles at Naas on Saturday, they were to be disappointed. The winner here was Next Destination, by an emphatic 13 lengths, in the happily once more visible Malcolm Denmark silks. He has run a few horses recently, still concentrating on long-term protege Mark Pitman, but this one is with Willie Mullins and was not far behind ill-fated Fayonagh in last season’s Cheltenham bumper.

That was the race where Denmark and Pitman enjoyed a 50-1 triumph together, one of eight wins from only ten starts by the brilliant Monsignor. That was his second win from four bumper runs when oddly three of his four riders - Brendan Powell senior, Timmy Murphy and Graham Lee - all won the Grand National, although the latter pair now ride only on the Flat.

Monsignor won all six races over hurdles the following winter beating triple Gold Cup hero Best Mate at Sandown and National winner Bindaree a couple of times including in the Royal and Sun Alliance hurdle at the Festival.

Norman Williamson rode the gelding in all six and will have been as frustrated as everyone in racing in the spring of 2000 when injury prevented his running ever again. Just how far he might have changed racing history must often exercise the minds of Messrs Denmark, Pitman and Williamson. It was nice to see him on show at Newbury races one day a couple of years back as an equine participant in the Retraining of Racehorses scheme and it would be appropriate if Next Destination reaches anywhere near his level.

Saturday in the UK belonged to that highly-efficient dual-purpose trainer Ian Williams. Having won the big handicap hurdle at Wincanton with his Cesarewitch runner-up London Prize, he was on hand at Doncaster to send out Saunter, a recent addition to the stable, to stroll home in the November Handicap.

In the way of such coincidences, Williams has another young horse, good enough to run second behind sadly-deceased Permian in the Listed Newmarket Stakes back in May and to canter away from his field in a Huntingdon juvenile hurdle just over a week ago. His name? Speedo Boy. His sire? Vision d’Etat. Do you feel a Triumph or more likely a Fred Winter coming on? I do.

Stat of the Day, 18th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.30 Leicester : Dream of Delphi @ 5/1 BOG Last of 9 at 5/1 : Missed break, slowly into stride, held up in rear, never dangerous...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

5.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 1m4f...

...with a 4 yr old gelding who was pipped late on last time out, finishing as a runner-up over this trip and at this grade just five days, beaten by a mere short head.

His trainer Ian Williams has got his horses running well right now and over the last 30 days, the yard is 13 from 50 (26% SR) for profits of 11.8pts at an ROI of 23.6%, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 11/44 (25%) for 14pts (+31.8%)
  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 13/33 (39.4%) for 28.8pts (+87.3%)
  • at Classes 4 & 5 : 8/23 (34.8%) for 18.25pts (+79.3%)
  • on the All-Weather : 5/18 (27.8%) for 3.3pts (+18.3%)
  • those running with less than 3 weeks rest : 10/16 (62.5%) for 22.9pts (+143.1%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 4/13 (30.8%) for 3.6pts (+27.5%)

Now, some of you might think it's a bit flimsy for me to base a pick for SotD upon a sample size of 50 runners and you might be right, so would 1073 runners be a more reliable pool to dive into?

We know that Ian Williams has done well recently with runners turned around fairly quickly, but more generally I do like to back quick returners on the A/W but as you'd expect, I have some parameters that need to be applied before placing the bets.

My criteria for my A/W quick returners are (and they look far more complicated in print than they are in reality!) as follows...

...AW handicaps / 5 to 16 runners / March to November / Aged 2 to 7 / Running at trips within 1f of last run / Beaten by less than 5 lengths LTO / ran in last 5 days...

And this has produced the afore-mentioned 1073 qualifiers since the start of March 2008, so whilst that seems plenty, it's really only just over 100 per year or 10 per month. And if you'd backed all 1073 qualifiers, you'd have found yourself 207 winners at a healthy strike rate of 19.3% : not bad from blindly backing them!

And if you'd stuck £20 on each of them, you'd be ahead of the bookies by almost £5,000 - £4962 to be more precise at an attractive ROI of some 23.1%. Now, of course, some of you will want fewer bets and with such a large dataset, there are going to be lots of profitable angles you could take, but I'm only going to give you a dozen!

  1. In fields of 6-14 runners : 202/1051 (19.2%) for 243.6pts (+23.2%)
  2. On Polytrack : 157/827 (19%) for 237.2pts (+28.7%)
  3. At odds of 13/8 to 8/1 : 176/787 (22.4%) for 245.6pts (+31.2%)
  4. Males are 148/761 (19.5%) for 134.2pts (+17.6%)
  5. At the same class as LTO : 133/642 (20.7%) for 208.1pts (+32.4%)
  6. At the same distance as LTO : 108/541 (20%) for 139.4pts (+25.8%)
  7. LTO runners-up are 81/324 (25%) for 62.5pts (+19.3%)
  8. 4 yr olds are 51/279 (18.3%) for 40.6pts (+14.6%)
  9. At Class 5 : 56/273 (20.5%) for 37.5pts (+13.7%)
  10. In October : 41/172 (23.8%) for 100.8pts (+58.6%)
  11. Here at Lingfield : 33/171 (19.3%) for 38.2pts (+22.3%)
  12. And those beaten by a head or less LTO are 17/44 (38.6%) for 33.8pts (+76.7%)

...but first... a 1pt win bet on So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfair & SunBets at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.10 Catterick : The New Pharaoh @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Switched left start, held up in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest at finish ...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

3.10 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sailors Warn @ 3/1 or 11/4 BOG

Why?

A Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 1m7.5f on good to firm ground...

This 10 yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago, but was beaten by 4.5 lengths last time out on unsuitably soft ground at a higher grade than today. he's well rested and down in class, so should go well for trainer Ian Williams...

...whose NH handicappers are 53/248 (21.4% SR) for 73pts (+29.4% ROI) since the start of last year, including...

  • males @ 46/214 (21.5%) for 77.2pts (+36.1%)
  • hurdlers are 35/165 (21.2%) for 51.9pts (+31.5%)
  • at trips of 2m 0.5f and shorter : 16/76 (21.1%) for 20.7pts (+27.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 18/61 (29.5%) for 41.7pts (+68.4%)
  • and 9/10 yr olds are 10/43 (23.3%) for 29.4pts (+68.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sailors Warn @ 3/1 or 11/4 BOG, which was offered by Bet365  & Sunbets respectively at 5.45pm on Tuesday. I'll be settling up at the lower of the two, of course and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

6.35 Brighton : Tommys Geal @ 9/2 BOG (3.83/1 after 15p R4) 5th at 7/2 Held up towards rear, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, soon ridden, weakened inside final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bamako du Chatelet7/2 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won over this trip at Wolverhampton back in January, but has admittedly struggled to find form off higher marks since then. However, a return to this trip allied to only losing narrowly last time out a week ago gives cause for optimism.

He has a career record of 4 wins from 12 at this 1.5 mile trip and he's 4/11 on the A/W here at Lingfield, with a 3 from 7 record over course and distance.

He's trained by Ian Williams, whose runners are 36/180 (20% SR) for 42.4pts (+23.6% ROI) here on the A/W at Lingfield since 2010, of which...

  • those who finished 3rd, 4th or 5th last time out are 16/71 (22.5%) for 14.79pts (+20.8%)
  • those last seen 4 to 10 days ago are 14/40 (35%) for 50.56pts (+126.4%)
  • and over this 1m4f course and distance : 9/37 (24.3%) for 9.42pts (+25.5%)

In addition to the above, Ian Williams' runners running just 4 to 10 days after their last effort are 119/476 (25% SR) for 223.4pts (+46.9% ROI) since 2010, including...

  • handicaps : 98/374 (26.2%) for 255.9pts (+68.4%)
  • on the A/W : 45/191 (23.6%) for 177.3pts (+92.8%)
  • in A/W hcps : 36/157 (22.9%) for 179.9pts (+114.6%)
  • in Lingfield A/W handicaps : 10/32 (31.25%) for 39.5pts (+123.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bamako du Chatelet7/2 BOG which was on offer in around a dozen places at 6.00pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Doncaster : Mutawatheb @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Led, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a length attempting to concede 11lbs to the winner!)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.25 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

So Celebre at 4/1 BOG

Why?

In the last days, both today's jockey and trainer have been in decent form, with Jim Crowley riding 26 winners from 110 (23.6% SR) on the Flat for profits of 28pts (+25.5% ROI) and he now has a rare booking for Ian Williams, who has also been amongst the winners of late with a 5 from 25 (20% SR) record in handicaps in the same time frame, that has yielded 10.04pts at an ROI of 40.16%.

They team up with So Celebre, who also has been running well and is a qualifier for my "Ted Rogers" micro-system. Basically I'm looking for horses on the Flat with a form line reading 321! These horses are clearly improving as they go and providing they haven't peaked, they're a good bet to go in again, as since the start of the 2014 campaign, such runners are 66/297 (22.2% SR) for 95.8pts (+32.3% ROI).

Of those 297 runners, we can also highlight the following data of interest today...

  • those running within 45 days of that LTO win are 59/247 (23.9%) for 88.4pts (+35.8%)
  • 2/3 yr olds are 49/189 (25.9%) for 106.9pts (+56.6%)
  • and over trips of 7 to 12 furlongs : 44/178 (24.7%) for 93.7pts (+52.7%)

...and if you wanted to combine the subsets, I suggest a focus is placed on 2/3 yr olds running 1-45dslr over 7f to 1m2.5f, as these are 21/72 (29.2%) for 52.7pts +73.2%) with sub-5/1 runners scoring on 17 of 39 occasions (+43.6%) for profits of 23.9pts (+61.2%)

And after the trainer, the jockey and the horse's stats, how about his father? The sire is Peintre Celebre, whose offspring have been profitable to follow for a while now and over the last 500 days, they have won 32 of 214 (14.95% SR) for 42.6pts (+19.9% ROI) profit, with those running in Flat (turf) contests winning 18 of 127 (14.2%) for 44.8pts (+35.2%).

Of those 127 runners on the Flat...

  • 6-60 dslr = 17/99 (17.2%) for 67pts (+67.7%)
  • in hcps : 16/90 (17.8%) for 41.7pys (+46.3%)
  • over 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs : 6/42 (14.3%) for 19.4pts (+46.1%)
  • on good ground : 6/41 (14.6%) for 45.4pts (+110.7%)

...directing me to...a 1pt win bet on So Celebre at 4/1 BOG with any/all of Betfair Sports, Paddy Power and/or SkyBet who headed the market at 7.40pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Epsom.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

SotD : Monday 27/04/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2015

Our 7/2 shot Ajman Bridge was beaten by just a neck as a fancied 2/1 favourite at Doncaster on Saturday and the frustration/disappointment of that result just about summed up my week!

I've absolutely no complaints about his run or the way he was handled, he was just (and only just!) beaten by one who had a bit more on the day. He ran really well from a handy position and certainly didn't look like he hadn't raced for eight months and if I can get a price on him next time out, might be worth a punt.

Anyway, a new week = a clean sheet and four more opportunities to top up April's account before May Day (which is of course Friday and the artificial bank Holiday Monday!), starting in the...

4.55 Kempton:

A Class 6, A/W handicap over 1m3f where I've just placed a bet at 11/4 BOG on Ian Williams' 3yr old Convicted, who was a course and distance winner here just under 3 weeks ago.

Ian Williams record here at Kempton in A/W handicaps since 2008 is good : 33 winners from 165 runners at a strike rate of exactly 20% and the 41,25pts profit equate to exactly 25% of all stakes.

In regard to today's contest, that above record can be broken down as follows...

At trips of 6f to 11f : 22/104 (21.2% SR) for 50.1pts (+48.1% ROI)
Priced at 7/1 or shorter : 30/97 (30.9% SR) for 51.9pts (+53.5% ROI)
At Class 6 : 21/74 (28.4%SR) for 55.7pts (+75.2% ROI)

Obviously the more you refine the stat, the smaller the sample size, but as an example, Ian Williams' runners in Kempton Class 6 A/W handicaps over trips of 6f to 11f at odds of 5/1 or shorter are 12/25 (48% SR) for 28.4pts profit at an ROI of 113.6%.

Convicted hadn't even made the frame in any of his six starts (650754) before getting off the mark over course and distance here 19 days ago. He is now turned back out quite quickly in a bid to take advantage of this upturn in form, but there is a precedent in place for this.

Horses running in A/W handicaps here at Kempton who won last time out in the previous 30 days, that had gone on a run (at least 3 in a row) of unplaced efforts prior to that win (ie u/p, u/p, u/p, win) are 114 from 439 (26% SR) for 177.8pts (+40.5% ROI) profit at odds below 12/1.

Those who ran and won here at Kempton last time out are 63/224 (28.1% SR) for 136.2pts (+60.8% ROI) whilst those now running over the same course and distance as last time are 47/154 (30.5% SR) for 113.4pts (+73.6% ROI).

The best price for Convicted is 11/4 BOG with Bet365. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2015

Our 7/2 shot Ajman Bridge was beaten by just a neck as a fancied 2/1 favourite at Doncaster on Saturday and the frustration/disappointment of that result just about summed up my week!

I've absolutely no complaints about his run or the way he was handled, he was just (and only just!) beaten by one who had a bit more on the day. He ran really well from a handy position and certainly didn't look like he hadn't raced for eight months and if I can get a price on him next time out, might be worth a punt.

Anyway, a new week = a clean sheet and four more opportunities to top up April's account before May Day (which is of course Friday and the artificial bank Holiday Monday!), starting in the...

4.55 Kempton:

A Class 6, A/W handicap over 1m3f where I've just placed a bet at 11/4 BOG on Ian Williams' 3yr old Convicted, who was a course and distance winner here just under 3 weeks ago.

Ian Williams record here at Kempton in A/W handicaps since 2008 is good : 33 winners from 165 runners at a strike rate of exactly 20% and the 41,25pts profit equate to exactly 25% of all stakes.

Your first 30 days for just £1

In regard to today's contest, that above record can be broken down as follows...

At trips of 6f to 11f : 22/104 (21.2% SR) for 50.1pts (+48.1% ROI)
Priced at 7/1 or shorter : 30/97 (30.9% SR) for 51.9pts (+53.5% ROI)
At Class 6 : 21/74 (28.4%SR) for 55.7pts (+75.2% ROI)

Obviously the more you refine the stat, the smaller the sample size, but as an example, Ian Williams' runners in Kempton Class 6 A/W handicaps over trips of 6f to 11f at odds of 5/1 or shorter are 12/25 (48% SR) for 28.4pts profit at an ROI of 113.6%.

Convicted hadn't even made the frame in any of his six starts (650754) before getting off the mark over course and distance here 19 days ago. He is now turned back out quite quickly in a bid to take advantage of this upturn in form, but there is a precedent in place for this.

Horses running in A/W handicaps here at Kempton who won last time out in the previous 30 days, that had gone on a run (at least 3 in a row) of unplaced efforts prior to that win (ie u/p, u/p, u/p, win) are 114 from 439 (26% SR) for 177.8pts (+40.5% ROI) profit at odds below 12/1.

Those who ran and won here at Kempton last time out are 63/224 (28.1% SR) for 136.2pts (+60.8% ROI) whilst those now running over the same course and distance as last time are 47/154 (30.5% SR) for 113.4pts (+73.6% ROI).

The best price for Convicted is 11/4 BOG with Bet365. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2015

The Charlie Appleby bandwagon rolled on yesterday as he picked up another two golds and a bronze from his three runners, and the SotD pick Hills And Dales was one of those winners, taking Charlie's record to 26/53 in the last five weeks.

Our pick looked a little green and reluctant to go by the leaders until late and he wandered about a bit too, giving me a little cause for concern, but his 5lb claimer jockey did a good steering job to get him home by a length and a quarter.

The icing on the cake came in the shape of a 0.75pt drift out to an SP of 3/1, serving once more as a reminder to use BOG bookies!

So, after tough times of late for both Matt and myself, the hat-trick opportunity is upon us. Unfortunately, Wednesday looks woeful and despite having some decent stats to back up today's selection, you'd be forgiven for thinking I was having a wild stab at the...

7.45 Kempton:

...where I've taken what I think might be a big 6/1 BOG about Ian Williams' 3 yr old gelding Convicted. Yes, I know he's not even made the frame in any of his seven starts to date, but this is a shocking race that he looks weighted to win if approaching it in the right manner.

His best run came last time out, when finishing fourth at Wolverhampton over 1m4f, but had led inside the final furlong before weakening and fading out of contention. He drops back a furlong and carries 4lbs less here today, which should make him really competitive in a field of runners that doesn't know how to win (0/44 is the combined tally!).

His jockey, James Doyle, however, knows how to win at Kempton and comes here having ridden 2 winners from 5 in his last two days "at work". Longer-term, he he has a decent record in A/W handicaps here at Kempton, winning on 22 of his 75 rides priced at 8/1 or shorter since the start of 2013. This 29.3% strike rate has so far yielded 43.8pts profit at an ROI of 58.3%.

Ian Williams also tends to do well enough here by the Thames and in A/W handicaps in general. Since the start of 2011, his record in A/W handicaps is 76 winners from 483 (15.7% SR) for profits of 131.4pts (+27.2% ROI), with those running here at Kempton winning 23 of 106 (21.7% SR) for 28.5pts (+26.9% ROI). His runners at this track priced at 6/1 and shorter (where I'm sure we'll end up!) are 20/53 (37.7% SR) for 33.7pts (+63.6% ROI).

Convicted is Ian's only runner of the day, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll not get his costs covered, as since 2008, Ian's sole runners of the day at odds of 5/4 to 12/1 have triumphed on 84 of 456 (18.4% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 53.4pts at an ROI of 11.7%.

Those figures are best on the A/W, where his single entrants are 31/156 (19.9% SR) for 43.4pts (+27.8% ROI), with male runners here at Kempton scoring on 7 of 29 attempts (24.1% SR) for 22.5pts (+77.5% ROI) profit, of which there's a 6/19 (31.6% SR) return for runners priced in the 11/4 to 7/1 banding, producing 17.3pts (+91.1% ROI) profit.

It's not a good race and it shouldn't take much winning to be honest. A drop in trip and weight mean that if Convicted runs like he did last time out, we should should be celebrating a winner at 6/1 BOG, a price currently on offer from Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power.

As always, do check that's still available by...

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