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Monday Musings: What a difference a win makes!

A New Year – A New Dawn? Maybe. What Sod’s Law, Say Nothing and co couldn’t deliver in any race for Raymond Tooth in 2019, Waterproof tested my “Pour Moi’s are better jumpers than Flat-racers” theory at Fakenham on January 1, writes Tony Stafford. He duly confirmed it, and by 15 lengths.

True, it needed a last-flight capitulation by Bran - a length up with only a short run-in to survive – but he was miles ahead of the rest after a nimble exhibition of jumping and enthusiastic galloping.

One swallow might not make a summer, but one winning jumper certainly invigorated the Raymond Tooth team. The boss has been saying for ages that it’s getting almost impossible to compete with the big battalions of both codes, but one “1” beside a horse’s name certainly brings optimism to aim at greater targets.

One more novice or handicap win – and as a four-year-old he’ll still get a hefty allowance against his elders – could get him into the Fred Winter (Boodles Juvenile) at the Festival. The Tooth colours of pink and grey, which collected the top hurdling prize 11 years ago when Punjabi won an epic Champion Hurdle tussle with Celestial Halo and Binocular, might just be dusted off in eight weeks’ time.

Shaun Keightley has done well to turn a 51-rated middle-distance horse to a winning jumper at only the second attempt. Jack Quinlan, who’d ridden him on debut and schooled him on the morning before the race but had to be at Cheltenham on Wednesday for a very disappointing Kalashnikov, reported immediately on first acquaintance that Waterproof was a natural.

The initial steps were actually undertaken by Josephine Gordon, his regular partner in recent Flat runs, and she accompanied the party to Fakenham on Wednesday. Now we’re scouring the entry pages to try to find a suitable follow-up, preferably where we won’t be meeting any stars.

The problem with any win is that instinctively you project forward. It’s the same when people are thinking of selling their improving horses, or in fact not, but are being pestered to do so. The tendency is to ask too much – the new figure more usually what the horse would be worth if he did win that next target. Yet if you keep him and win that race, the new people will think that’s one less opportunity for them if they did manage to buy. I can report that to date J P McManus has not put in a bid, so we’ll be soldiering on!

Your first 30 days for just £1

After the flurry of big meetings in Ireland, the pace will be much slower over there this week with only Clonmel on Thursday and Fairyhouse on Saturday to offer opportunities for the major stables. Not even a Sunday this week.

It is almost uncanny how closely matched the two big Irish jumping entities have been over Christmas and New Year. Willie Mullins won with 17 of his 99 runners: Gordon Elliott with 16 of 98. So far this jumps season (May to May) their scores are Mullins 117 from 493 and Elliott 120 from 812. Elliott’s numerical advantage also extends to individual horses raced – 267 to 206.

It would have been impossible for the old-time trainers to get their heads around such numbers. When Nicky Henderson started out with Fred Winter, normal stable strength for the top teams was in the 40-50 range. Now Henderson controls an operation which has sent out 145 individual animals for 77 wins from 292 runs, only exceeded by the 193 horses that have combined to get Dan Skelton up to 97 for the season.

Elliott has once or twice come to the business part of the Irish jumping season challenging long-standing champion Mullins but his ambitions of a first title, decided of course on prizemoney,  have been thwarted usually by the big guns from Closutton cleaning up at the season’s conclusion at Punchestown.

In 2016-7 it seemed an inevitability that Elliott would prevail, but his financial advantage was whittled down and then exceeded at Punchestown even though he had 13 more winners than his rival. This season he is around €340k ahead but, with many big prizes to be contested and among potential game-changers, the arrival of Cheveley Park Stud as major jumps owners can give Elliott hope that he can stay at the helm.

Yesterday Cheveley Park’s Envoi Allen made it seven out of seven with a convincing defeat of Mullins’ front-running Elixir D’Ainay in the Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle over two and a half miles. I’m not sure that he is ready for the Champion Hurdle on what I saw once he headed the runner-up. Maybe he can follow Istabraq’s example by winning the two and a half mile novice at Cheltenham before returning to dominate the next three Champions.

The embryo stars are lining up for the three Cheltenham novice races. Abacadabras, so impressive over Christmas, had been a length and a half behind Envoi Allen, his fellow Elliott inmate, over the minimum at Fairyhouse on December 1 and is the nearest to him in the betting for the Skybet Supreme Novice Hurdle. Envoi Allen is favourite both for that Festival opener and also the longer Ballymore Properties Novice, and is a shorter price (7-4) for the latter.

Here Thyme Hill, at the moment the leader from among the home contingent, is 7-1 second best. The form of his wins keep working out well, as with his Chepstow October victim Fiddlerontheroof, much too good for Saturday’s Tolworth Hurdle rivals, and still tempting at around 20-1 for whichever Cheltenham option Colin Tizzard selects.

**

This writer has – as do many in racing – a high regard for the talents of Ian Williams and one of his all-weather performers has all the signs of becoming a winter star. Noble Behest is a six-year-old that joined Williams last year following a 541-day absence, having previously enjoyed rewarding initial spells with Marcus Tregoning (three wins) and Robert Stephens (two out of two).

Four of the five wins had been in all-weather races of two miles and more. Once he got racing with his new handler it took a few runs (and a good few pounds off!) for Williams to get the cobwebs fully blown away. A running-on second at Wolverhampton over 1m6f was the signal that normal service was imminent and so it has proved.

Victories since on the Chelmsford Polytrack (his third there) and Wolverhampton Tapeta (second) were the prelude to a first try on Fibresand at Southwell. I made the mistake of contacting Williams yesterday morning when wondering whether the son of Sir Percy would cope with the surface. “The Sir Percy’s have a horrendous record at Southwell” reported Williams, a few hours before Noble Behest went off in front and came home in splendid isolation five lengths clear. That’s one way of avoiding the kick-back!

His rating yesterday was 73, still 3lb below his last winning mark of the pre-Williams era, achieved almost two years to the day at Chelmsford so that’s due a hike.

As the reports stated, this was a seventh win in nine all-weather starts when racing at two miles plus – he lost the other twice at shorter – but what they do not reveal is what a look at all his race videos told me. He’s one of the gamest horses I’ve ever seen. Low level or not, there’s the potential for him to go a lot further up the rankings if the shrewd Williams can keep him sound.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2019

Monday's pick was...

5.40 Hexham : Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, left 2nd 6th, led last, driven flat, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,738 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old gelding is on a run of 6 defeats since winning off a mark of 73 last November and now runs off his lowest handicap mark to date at 69, which all sound a little uninspiring, but...

1. He is going to be ridden by Jim Crowley for the first time today and Jim is in sparkling form, winning 9 of 28 (32.1% SR) over the past fortnight and 4 of 11 (36.4% SR) over the last week.

2. His trainer, Ian Williams's record in handicaps here at Salisbury over the last five seasons stands at 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 21.6pts (+127.2% ROI) with runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter, from which...

  • males are 7/14 (50%) for 22.2pts (+158.7%)
  • those running on good to firm are 4/8 (50%) for 9.35pts (+116.8%)
  • Class 5 runners are 3/6 (50%) for 10.6pts (+176.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 2.96pts (+49.3%)
  • and over this 1m6f C&D, they are 3/5 (60%) for 15.5pts (+310%)

3. Over the last three seasons, Ian's 3 yr olds racing in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of 10f to 14f (and receiving a weight for age allowance) are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 19.8pts (+86.2% ROI).

4. Also, in the same 3 season time window, his Class 5 handicappers racing off a mark lower than their last winning rating are 10 from 49 (20.4% SR) for 69.4pts (+141.5% ROI)

5. Whilst, finally for today, as Ian only has the one runner on show today, it's worth noting that over those last three seasons, when represented on the day by just one runner, those horses are 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) for 13.9pts (+51.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 8/1 in a Flat handicap...

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2019

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Lingfield : Tarseekh @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led, pushed along 2f out, ridden and headed close home, beaten by half a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Paddy The Chef @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has hardly set the world on fire with a string of a dozen defeats since his solitary success almost 59 weeks ago, but his best run of the 12 losses was surely his effort at Yarmouth last time out, when finishing third in a big field (16 ran) just 1.25 lengths off the winner whilst staying on well at the end.

The extra half furlong here gives me more hope of him stepping up here, as does the fact he comfortably beat three of today's rivals comfortably that day and with jockey Cieren Fallon taking the ride and claiming 5lbs today off an unaltered mark, that should also work in our/his favour.

Stat-wise, it revolves around horses coming off losing runs and the marks allotted to them by the official handicapper, as trainer Ian Williams' Class 5/6 handicappers running off marks lower than their last win are 24 from 141 (17% SR) for 74.9pts (+53.1% ROI) profit over the last six (inc. this one, of course) seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 22/113 (19.5%) for 71.1pts (+63%) from 3-7 yr olds
  • 20/79 (25.3%) for 61.8pts (+78.2%) at SP odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 19/117 (16.2%) for 69.5pts (+59.4%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 15/47 (31.9%) for 33.5pts (+71.2%) at SP odds of 9/4 to 6/1
  • 14/49 (28.6%) for 72.1pts (+147.1%) from those on a run of 11-16 defeats
  • 11/62 (17.7%) for 27.2pts (+43.9%) on the Flat
  • and 8/16 (50%) for 34.06pts (+212.9%) from those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO

...whilst, based on the above and of interest here... 4 to 7 yr olds with 11-16 consecutive defeats now sent off at odds of 9/4 to 11/1 after a break of 1-3 weeks are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 52.41pts (+524.1% ROI), including 3 from 4 (75%) for 22.32pts (+558%) from those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Paddy The Chef @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG as was available from BF/PP and Bet365 respectively at 5.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.05 York : Sir Dancealot @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Went right start, held up in touch, under pressure 3f out, soon no impression)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11 (was 12) runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding arriving on a hat-trick mission after wins in this grade over 1m2f at Yarmouth 16 days ago and then over 1m2.5f at Nottingham last time out, 10 days back. These back to back successes have improved his record to a respectable 4 wins from 17, which with today's contest in mind include...

  • 4 from 13 in fields of 9-15 runners (not afraid of company!)
  • 4/10 in handicaps
  • 4/10 going left handed
  • 4/9 at Class 6
  • 4/7 over 10/10.5 furlongs
  • 4/7 at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 within a fortnight of his last run
  • and 2/3 in May/June

...whilst at 8/1 and shorter going left handed in 9-15 runner Class 6 handicaps over 1m2f-1m2.5f, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 24.7pts (+494% ROI), having been a runner-up beaten by half a length in the one he didn't win!

He is trained by Ian Williams who, since the start of 2016 in UK handicaps, has 49 winers from 121 (40.5% SR) from horses sent back out 1-10 days after a top 3 finish. Blindly backing all 121 runners would have netted you £1046 profit from a £20 level stakes at an ROI of 43.2%.

If, however, you didn't want to back all such runners (and I rarely suggest you do!), then the following angles are at play today...

  • 49/103 (47.6%) for 70.3pts (+68.3%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 24/58 (41.4%) for 20.9pts (+36.1%) from LTO winners
  • 20/40 (50%) for 35.1pts (+87.9%) on the Flat
  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 33.4pts (123.5%) at Class 6
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 24.6pts (+91.3%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 11.5pts (+54.8%) from those dropping in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.8pts (+148.6%) at 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 15.83pts (+263.9%) in June
  • 3/5 (60%) for 5.08pts (101.6%) from those ridden by Adam Kirby, who himself is 20/70 (28.6%) for 44.7pts (+63.8%) here at Bath over the last five seasons
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.62pts (+12.4%) here at Bath

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Luckys Dream @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 9.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

6.15 Newcastle : Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, effort over 2f out, ridden and lost place over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+  Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good To Soft worth £6563 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is trained by Ian Williams and my starting point today is the simple fact that over the last two years, blindly backing Ian's NH runners has been a profitable venture with 70 winners from 472 runners (14.8% SR) producing profits of 190pts at a cracking ROI of some 40.3%.

Of those 472 runners...

  • hurdlers are 47/311 (15.1%) for 242.5pts (+78%)
  • over trips of 2m4f to 3m0.5f : 37/203 (18.2%) for 62.6pts (+30.8%)
  • hurdlers over trips of 2m4f to 3m0.5f : 21/124 (16.9%) for 64.2pts (+51.7%)
  • whilst those running on good to soft are 15/116 (12.9%) for 206.9pts (+178.3%)

Aside from those excellent general recent stats, Ian's record here at Ludlow has been consistently good for several years now and an angle I like is the one that shows that the market is a decent judge of his runners, as over the last 6 years those sent off at odds of 7/1 or shorter have won 14 of 41 (34.2% SR) for 16.7pts (+40.7% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males : 13/37 (35.1%) for 18.3pts (+49.4%)
  • hurdlers : 10/24 (41.7%) for 14pts (+58.2%)
  • handicappers : 7/28 (25%) for 7.56pts (+27%)
  • 15-49 dslr : 10/22 (45.5%) for 22.3pts (+101.1%)
  • hcp hurdlers : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.68pts (+51.4%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/10 (40%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%)
  • and male hcp hurdlers : 3/10 (30%) for 7.26pts (+72.6%)

...pointing to a 1pt win bet on Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG as was available from at least a dozen firms at 5.10pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.45 Newbury : Kupatana @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Led in start, led until 3rd (water), chased winner until 9th, outpaced before next, ridden and went 3rd 3 out, left remote 2nd at the last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 15-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle  for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £25992 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was useful on the Flat at Class 2 and better, winning over 2 miles at Ascot this summer and has 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts over hurdles, including winning over 2m5.5f at Cheltenham when last seen a fortnight ago.

Trainer Ian Williams' handicap hurdlers are 25 from 113 (22.1% SR) for 97.1pts (+85.9% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 2m6f since the start of 2015 and these include of relevance today...

  • males at 21/91 (23.1%) for 104.2pts (+114.6%)
  • those last seen 6-45 days ago are 20/75 (26.7%) for 59.8pts (+79.7%)
  • those sent off shorter than 5/1 are 18/46 (39.1%) for 23.9pts (+52%)
  • those ridden by Tom O'Brien are 6/25 924%) for 7.55pts (+30.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/22 (36.4%) for 4.57pts (+20.8%)
  • and at Class 2 : 4/18 (22.2%) for 58.4pts (+324.5%)

...and from the above : sub-5/1 males at 6-45 dslr = 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 13pts (+46.4% ROI)...

It would be remiss of me to point out that we're expecting soft ground, but confidence is taken from the fact that since the start of 2012, Ian's soft ground NH handicappers are 19/58 (32.8% SR) for 29.8pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1.

And finally, his LTO winners sent back out after a rest of less than three weeks are 49 from 160 (30.6% SR) for 55.2pts (+34.5% ROI) in handicap contests since the start of 2014...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Friday evening, whilst Ladbrokes were offering an extras half point on top. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.05 Warwick : Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, lost place 7th, tailed off after 13th, soon pulled up) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a runner-up in another Class 2, 7 furlong handicap off today's mark 25 days ago, going down by just half a length to Muntadab, who has since run twice : winning again at this class/trip before finishing as a runner-up in a Listed contest at Newmarket last Saturday, beaten only by our SotD selection, Mitchum Swagger.

Our trainer today is Ian Williams, whose runners are 17 from 105 (16.2% SR) for 13.4pts (+12.7% ROI) here at Doncaster since 2009, of which handicappers priced shorter than 10/1 (my preferred odds range for my personal betting) are 14 from 45 (31.1% SR) for 42.75pts (+95% ROI).

It makes sense to focus on these 45 handicappers today and in the context of this race, they are...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 40.33pts (+100.8%) when competing for less than £13k prize money
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 41.1pts (+171.3%) racing within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 29.45pts (+155%) in 2017/18
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 26.68pts (+222.3%) after a break of 21-25 days

...AND from the above...2017/18, 7/1 and shorter, 21-25 dslr for less than £13k = 3/5 (60% SR) for 18.36pts (+367.2% ROI), including 1/1 at Class 2 for 6.28pts profit.

I'm also happy to see the Doyler (James Doyle) in the saddle today, as he's in great form, winning 14 of 35 (40% SR) over the last 30 days and 9 of 23 (39.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record for Ian Williams in handicaps is an excellent 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 9.3pts (+20.2% ROI) over the last three years...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG, a price widely available at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.50 Huntingdon : Hepijeu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd going well after 3 out, soon poised to challenge, led next, clear when went right and not fluent last, ridden out to win by a length and three quarters)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4464 to the winner...  

Why?

A shorter priced pick than usual (but 2/1 BOG or better should still be worth taking) admittedly, but the statistical evidence is quite compelling about this 4 yr old filly who was a winner at Nottingham seven days ago staying on well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill who was riding her for the first time that day.

Her overall record of 2 wins, 3 places from 12 is neither good nor bad, I'd say, but of those 12 outings, she is...

  • 2+2/8 since moving to Ian Williams
  • 2+2/6 at Class 5
  • 2+1/6 going left handed
  • and 1/1 after a break of 7 days or less

Trainer Ian Williams has his string in great form right now with 16 winners from 74 (21.6% SR) for 37.3pts (+50.4% ROI) profit over the last 30 days and these include of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 15/61 (24.6%) for 47pts (+77%)
  • on the Flat : 10/44 (22.7%) for 29.4pts (+66.8%)
  • over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs : 3/15 920%) for 30.35pts (+202.3%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.7pts (+440.8%)
  • ridden by Kieran O'Neill : 2/9 (22.2%) for 5.46pts (+60.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft : 2/8 925%) for 24.23pts (+302.9%)

Ian's horses have tended to go well with Kieran in the saddle this year, winning 5 of 15 (33.3% SR) for 6.92pts (+46.1%), all on the Flat and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+68.6%) in Flat handicaps, including...

  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.05pts (+88.1%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.05pts (+115%) on females
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.65pts (+432.5%) over 8.5 furlongs or shorter
  • 1/1 (100%) for 6.59pts (+659%) at Class 5
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 2.06pts (+206%) here at Bath

I stated earlier that Pure Shores won last time out a week ago and it's also worth noting that over the last five (inc. this one) Flat seasons, Ian's LTO winners are 31/117 (26.5% SR) for 43pts (+36.8% ROI) profit with the following angles at play today...

  • in hcps : 28/108 (25.9%) for 30.5pts (+28.2%)
  • 1-30 days since last run : 28/86 (32.6%) for 62.4pts (+72.5%)
  • at 7/1 and shorter : 28/73 (38.4%) for 45.7pts (+62.6%)
  • at a mile or shorter : 12/40 (30%) for 45.5pts (+113.7%)
  • 1-10 dslr : 13/24 (54.2%) for 32.1pts (+133.6%)
  • and at C5 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 15.8pts (+87.7%)

And seeing that Pure Shores ran just seven days ago, should we be concerned about a quick turnaround? The last six (inc this one) seasons figures say not. They show that Ian's Flat handicappers are 26/92 (28.3% SR) for 50.4pts (+54.8% ROI) within a week of their last outing and with today's race in mind, those 92 are...

  • 24/81 (29.6%) for 56.8pts (+70.1%) after running on the Flat LTO
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 57pts (+73.1%) as 4-8 yr olds
  • 23/52 (44.2%) for 39.3pts (+75.6%) sent off shorter than 7/1
  • 12/24 (50%) for 56.1pts (+233.6%) in September/October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.8pts (+118%) as LTO winners
  • 6/10 (60%) for 25.46pts (+254.6%) in October
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.39pts (+46.5%) with Kieran in the saddle.

And considering that it looks like Pure Shores will go off as favourite, it's interested to note that Kieran O'Neill has ridden 17 favourites this year so far, winning 11 times (64.7% SR) generating level stakes profits of 16.24pts (+95.5% ROI) with five of the six losers making the frame! Of the 17 rides this year...

  • hcps = 8/11 (72.7%) for 13.71pts (+124.6%)
  • Flat = 7/9 (77.8%) for 9.38pts (+104.2%)
  • and in Flat hcps? Just 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 7.99pts (+133.1%) with the only blot on the results page being a runner-up!

...which all points to... a 1pt win bet on Pure Shores @ 9/4 BOG, a price offered by several firms from 5.40pm on Tuesday evening. Bet365 were the first to show and actually offered 3/1 BOG for the best part of 90 minutes! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.30 Chepstow : Swendab @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led after 1f, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 5, Fillies' Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £4852 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old filly might well be a seven-race maiden but having made the frame on 5 (3 of which were at a higher grade than today) of those 7 outings, she certainly is due a win and she ran particularly well last time out just six days ago and it is hoped that a first time visor might just eke a little more out of her here to break her duck.

Her trainer Ian Williams has been successful at this venue over the years, saddling up 27 winners from 176 (15.3% SR) for profits of 40pts (+22.% ROI) since 2008 and these include...

  • 23/75 (30.7%) for 59.48pts (+79.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 53.27pts (+88.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 39.83pts (+76.6%) on Good to Firm
  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 31.5pts (+70%) at Class 5
  • and 10/29 (34.5%) for 25.41pts (+87.6%) after resting for 10 days or less

This quick turnaround of a horse last seen 6 days ago is a successful strategy adopted by Ian Williams who has had 136 winners from 545 (24.95% SR) for 224.8pts (+41.25% ROI) profit since 2010 with horses turned back out just 4 to 10 days after their last run (resting not rusting, I call it) and of these 545 quick returners...

  • Handicaps : 113/438 (25.8%) for 253.8pts (+58%)
  • Flat : 50/178 (28.1%) for 69.2pts (+38.9%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 44/155 (28.4%) for 70.43pts (+45.44%)

...and finally, it;s worth looking at Ian's record with horses wearing a visor for the first time, as since 2010, this approach has found him 19 winners from 100 (19% SR) and profits of 87.19pts (+87.19% ROI), from which...

  • Handicaps : 15/84 (17.9%) for 86.7pts (+103.2%)
  • Flat : 12/43 (27.9%) for 91.7pts |(+213.2%)
  • Flat Handicaps : 9/38 (23.7%) for 89.39pts (+235.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Miss Mumtaz 9/4 BOGa price offered by 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.13pm on Wednesday. Bet365 however are offering 11/4 BOG so grab that if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Goodwood : Threading @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Chased clear leading pair until 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Doro 7/2 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner when last seen 43 days ago. That was a Class 5 contest over 5f and she needed pretty much every last yard of the trip, staying on strongly to grab the win in the closing stages to win by a neck, suggesting that an extra furlong today might help her, as indeed should a drop in class.

To date, she has won 2 of 3 Flat handicaps, she's 2 from 3 on Good ground and 2 from 2 in Flat handicaps on Good ground, whilst trainer Ian Williams' LTO winners sent back out at odds of 1/2 to 11/2 are 123/373 (33% SR) for 39.5pts (+10.6% ROI) over the last ten years, including of relevance today...

  • 5/6 yr olds : 59/165 (35.8%) for 38.8pts (+23.5%)
  • on Good ground : 39/104 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+36.7%)
  • on the Flat : 33/97 (34%) for 29.3pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/73 (39.7%) for 20.5pts (+28.1%)
  • and over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 13/41 (31.7%) for 13.2pts (+32.2%)

Jim Crowley is in the saddle today and since 2008, he is 16 from 93 (17.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+62.5% ROI) on horses trained by Ian Williams, including of note today...

  • in handicaps : 15/71 (21.1%) for 75pts (+105.7%)
  • on the Flat : 11/61 (18%) for 41.1pts (+67.3%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/42 (31%) for 30.8pts (+73.3%)
  • at 21 to 45 days since the horse's last run : 8/32 (25%) for 74.6pts (+233.2%)
  • and since the start of 2016 : 9/25 (36%) for 34.25pts (+137%)

...AND...on Flat handicappers priced at 7/1 and shorter : 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.3% ROI), with a 7 from 8 record (87.5%) producing 29.47pts (+368.3%) over the last two seasons...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dr Doro 7/2 BOGa price available from SkyBet, 10Bet and Sport Pesa at 6.20pm on Friday whilst Bet365 were the best on offer at 4/1 BOG , but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.50 Bangor : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1 In touch, headway 3 out, chased leaders next, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 2.75 lengths.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

Featuring a 5 yr old gelding who arrives here in decent nick having finished 132 in his last three outings and was only held off by a neck last time out. That was here at Chelmsford a week ago over 7f when staying on well and finishing strongest.

The winning line came fractionally too soon for him that day, so I expect the extra furlong to help him here in his bid to improve an already decent looking return of 5 wins from 22 (22.7% SR) on the A/W, including...

  • 5 wins & 4 places from 13 at Classes 5 & 6
  • 4 wins & 3 places from 7 in September to November
  • 2 wins & 3 places from 6 on Polytrack
  • and 2 wins and a place from four 12/13 runner races.

His trainer, Ian Williams, has had 8 winners from 27 (29.6% SR) runners in Class 5/6 contests here at Chelmsford to date and a simple £10 bet on each would have produced £92.10 profit, not earth shattering, but (a) enough for a night out and more importantly (b) an ROI of 34.1%!

Of these 27 lower grade runners here...

  • males are 8/23 (34.8%) for 13.21pts (+57.4%)
  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 7/20 (35%) for 4.09pts (+20.45%)
  • finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.8%)

AND...his lower grade males running over 7 to 10 furlongs here after a losing top 4 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 12.54pts (+139.4%)

Yet, for as impressive as the above numbers might be, they do lack the usual SotD meatiness of sample size, so  I'll divert you to the fact that this one is turned back out pretty quickly after last Thursday's defeat, because this is one of Ian Williams' preferred methods, as since the start of 2011, his runners who have rested for less than 10 days are 107/436 (24.5% SR) for 147.1pts (+33.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 93/356 (26.1%) for 185.7pts (+52.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/178 (21.4%) for 109.7pts (+61.6%)
  • and in A/W handicaps : 33/153 (21.6%) for 115.5pts (+75.5%)

...and from the above 153 quickly turned around A/W handicappers...

  •  those running on Polytrack are 27/111 (24.3%) for 87pts (+78.4%)
  • those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 21/73 (28.8%) for 34.8pts (+47.7%)
  • those racing against 11 or 12 opponents are 11/39 (28.2%) for 106.8pts (+273.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.23pts (+58.1%)

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betwayat 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!