Instant Expert for 5f Handicaps: An Analysis

18 May 2026/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

An investigation into the Geegeez Instant Expert, Part 2

This is the second of a two-parter in which I take a look at the Instant Expert feature in more detail, writes Dave Renham. Last week, I shared some initial findings connected with 575 British 5f handicap races run in 2024. It would make sense to read that piece first here, if you have already not done so. This week I continue my digging and. as I did last time, sharing my findings as I dig! So, at this juncture, I am unsure whether the findings this week will be as interesting or indeed as positive as that first half.

Recap

To recap quickly, the 5f handicaps I am looking at exclude 2yo handicaps (known as nurseries), but include all other age classifications. Any profit/loss quoted will be calculated to Betfair SP (BSP) less 2% commission on any winners.

As I mentioned last week, the Instant Expert tab can be found on the top of the Geegeez Racecards, between the Profiler and Pace tabs.

Instant Expert provides the Geegeez Gold community with some useful, and quickly digestible, horse information. It has a unique ability to summarise the form profile of every runner in the race into this single view. Instant Expert covers the form of each horse in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of five key areas namely going, class, course, distance, and field size. This can be seen in the screenshot below where I have clicked the tab for the 2.52 at Beverley run on the 23^rd April of this year:

The parameters I am using in terms of generating the percentages for each horse in each category are:

2-year placed form (see top left above the grid), all races and all codes (see top right above the grid).

These parameters are the same as I used in last week’s article because clearly the data across both articles needs to be consistent. The display is colour coded to help us see things more clearly at a glance: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

In the above example I have ranked the runners by their scores which are based on The Shortlist scoring system (The ‘Sh’ column). Green percentages score three points, amber percentages score one, grey percentages zero and red percentages minus one. Hence across the five areas a horse can obtain a top score 15 (five greens), whereas the lowest score would be -5 (five reds). Users may change the parameters and dropdowns so, for example, if you prefer to look at 5-year win only form just click the relevant circles. Once this is done, the Shortlist scores will change.

In the illustrated race above I’m Next had the maximum score of 15, while Novello Lad and Ventura Express were joint second on nine, with Trilby ranked fourth scoring seven points. For the record, the result of the race was as follows:

The top ranked horse I’m Next went onto win this race, priced at 11/8. Trilby, the fourth ranked runner, was second at 9/2 while one of the joint second ranked runners Novello Lad came third at 10/1. Based on what we found out last week in terms of the performance of the rankings, this type of result will occur much more than say three horses ranked near the bottom coming first, second and third.

A line on ranking methodology

Before getting into the meat and bones of this second piece, let me briefly discuss ranking or rating methods for a few lines. The key to a good set of ratings/rankings is not whether the top-rated/ranked runners make a long-term profit. Of course, that would be an added bonus but, essentially, to measure the effectiveness of a rating set we need to look at the win strike rate and the percentages of rivals beaten (PRBs).

The top-rated/ranked runner should have the highest win percentage, the second highest should win next most often, and so on, gradually reducing for the other runners. Ideally there would be a significant difference in strike rate between say the top-rated with the fourth rated, and likewise with the fourth rated and the tenth rated, and so on. This type of finding would ideally be mirrored in the PRB stats.

It was noted in my first article that the PRBs produced the perfect graph when assessing Instant Expert Shortlist score rankings with the PRBs decreasing from highest ranked to lowest. The win strike rates also showed the right type of pattern although the seventh and eight ranked were marginally out of kilter scoring maybe 1 to 1.5% higher than would be expected. Overall, the rankings had the right 'feel' based on all the stats I uncovered.

Instant Expert Rank #1 by Betfair Starting Price

Having set the scene, coupled with some key recaps, let me start to crunch the numbers once more. Last time, I looked into the combined performance of the top two ranked runners in terms of their Instant Expert (IE) Shortlist scores across different areas. To start with here, I want to focus solely on the top ranked runner starting with...

Instant Expert (IE) top ranked runner by Price

I want to see whether the BSP prices of the top ranked horses make any difference to returns. I have split qualifiers into different price band groupings and here are the splits:

We would expect higher win rates for shorter priced runners, but it is interesting that the performance of the bigger priced top ranked runners, those BSP 15.0 or bigger, has been very poor. Overall, these qualifiers have managed just three wins from 111 runs (SR 2.7%) for a loss of £57.07 (ROI -51.4%). From this sample, it is clear that top ranked runners based on their Instant Expert Shortlist scores give the best value if priced under BSP 15.0.

Instant Expert (IE) top ranked runner by Price (4yo+ hcaps only)

Last week it was noted that the top two ranked runners combined performed far better when contesting 4yo+ handicaps compared with other race classifications. Therefore, I want to look at the top-ranked runners in 4yo+ handicaps using the same price band analysis. Here are the splits:

There were no wins at all for those priced BSP 15.0 or bigger – 0 from 37 to be precise. The well fancied runners, those under BSP 6.0, produced very solid looking results albeit from a modest sample size of 98 qualifiers. The overall results for horses priced under BSP 15.0 are 43 wins from 200 runs (SR 21.5%) for a profit of £41.83 (ROI +20.9%).

Instant Expert top ranked runner by Age (4yo+ hcaps only)

Sticking with 4yo+ handicaps for a minute, I want to see if the age of the horse has made any difference when it comes to the top ranked runner.

Based on these findings it does seem that once we get to horses aged seven or older, performance of the top ranked runner tails off notably. This older age group produced just two wins from 41 starts with losses of close to 81p in the £. Yes, it is small sample but comparing the PRBs, five- and six-yrear-olds combined had a PRB of 0.64, while those aged seven and up were significantly lower on 0.54.

Of course, finding value selections is the key to successful betting and looking for positive angles helps us in this regard. However, it is also important to try and find negative angles in order that we can discard (or at least downgrade) certain runners from our shortlisting process. If we can narrow down the field it will implicitly improve our chances of finding value selections. It needs to be said that we can never be 100% confident that discarded selections won’t win, because a handful always will; but if these runners represent very poor value, then in general they are worth discarding. We know we can't back every winner!

In the first article we saw that those ranked ninth and tenth produced significant losses of nearly 46p and 30p in the £ respectively. Combining their two records they delivered just 33 wins from 754 runners (SR 4.4%) for losses of £272.75 (ROI -36.2%).

Instant Expert rank of 9 or lower by Class

Now I appreciate that these runners ranked ninth or lower will only be relevant in races of at least nine runners, but I still want to share a few stats I have found for this group.

A look at these lower ranked runners by Class of Race. Here are the splits:

As expected, we see losses across the board. However, there is no clear pattern in terms of whether lower ranked runners have struggled more in higher or lower classes. The Class 5 returns are somewhat out of kilter, but a BSP 50.0 winner is responsible for making the ROI% lower than perhaps what it should be. What the stats from different classes do tell us is that these runners struggle when racing in all class levels.

IE rank of 9 or lower by Race Classification

I am now going to split the races by 3yo only, 3yo+ and 4yo+ races to see what effect this has had on these lower ranked horses:

We see a lower strike rate in both the 3yo only and the 3yo+ group. These two also endured substantial losses to BSP. The 4yo+ group produced the best strike rate and almost broke even. However, all is not what it seems, as two of the 4yo+ winners were priced at BSP 50.0. Taking those two out and losses for the remaining 258 qualifiers would have been substantial, equating to around 38 pence in the £.

Digging a bit deeper, here are the numbers when we restrict all nine and lower ranked runners to those that were priced under BSP 15.0.

So even as we move towards the more fancied end of the betting market losses remained steep, although the 3yo only data set is small.

One final stat I wish to share before moving on is the performance of these lower ranked runners (9+) when aged three. If we look at all 3yo qualifiers that had a BSP of 10.0 or bigger, just one of these runners won from 192 qualifiers. Losses were £166.50 (ROI -86.7%).

Individual Instant Expert Shortlist scores by PRB

Having looked at a plethora of Instant Expert Shortlist ranking stats across both articles, let's now consider the performance of individual scores. As noted earlier, these scores range from the highest, 15, to the lowest, -5. I am going to examine PRBs first and, in order for them to fit within the graph, I have combined next door positions. Hence the highest two possible scores have been combined (15 and 13), followed by the next two (12 and 11), all the way down to the two lowest scores of -4 and -5. Remember, it's not possible to achieve a Shortlist score of 14.

We see a very similar graph to the one I published in the first article which I referenced earlier – the one that examined the PRBs for different ranked runners. The higher ranked runners had higher PRBs, and we see the same pattern here. The very lowest scores have commensurately low PRBs so, on this evidence at least, horses with a score of minus two or less can generally be safely ignored. Even those scoring 0 or -1 have a note of caution about them with a PRB of just 0.45. For the record, the top score of 15 produced the highest PRB, at 0.62, with a score 13 achieving a PRB of 0.58, while 11 and 12 both scored 0.56, and 9 and 10 both hit 0.55: that's very pleasing linearity indeed.

Instant Expert individual scores

Let me now share the strike rates, profit/loss, and ROI percentages for each individual Instant Expert (IE) Shortlist Score.

Some of the sample sizes are relatively small such as for the scores of 10 or 12, which is one of three reasons why we cannot necessarily be seduced by bottom lines for these individual scores. The second reason is that some individual scores will have been skewed somewhat by a big priced winner or two. One such example is a BSP 80.0 winner for the -5 group. If we weed that winner out and examine the other 237 runners which scored -5, the ROI% drops to -35% and correlating far better with all the other horses whose Shortlist score was a negative value. The third reason is that a score of 1 or 2, or indeed even smaller, could actually be the highest Shortlist score in the race. One such example of this can be found from a Yarmouth race in July 2024 which is shown below:

Merrimack was top ranked with a Shortlist score of just 2. For the record, he went on to win the race.

When looking at the strike rates for individual Shortlist scores there was not perfect correlation in terms of the strike rates always dropping as the scores decreased. However, when looking more generally the right strike rate pattern emerged and this can be seen to best effect when we group the highest IE scores together (11, 12, 13 and 15) and compare them to the lowest (-1, -2, -3, -4, -5).

Grouping like this does help to create more robust sample sizes and also smooths the data. This is further evidence of the potential effectiveness of Instant Expert, although I appreciate I have only looked at 575 UK handicap races, all run over 5f and from a single year, 2024. However, for this sample the correlation between ranking results and individual scores is primarily positive and makes me more hopeful that other result sets will produce similar results.

Instant Expert individual scores (4yo+ hcaps only)

It makes sense next to look at the 4yo+ handicap only data as these races to date have shown the most positive findings. Due to modest sample sizes, I have grouped the individual Instant Expert (IE) Shortlist scores into bands:

More positive correlation with both win rates and returns. This is replicated once more when we compare the PRBs:

For the record, horses scoring between 11 and 15 in 3yo only and 3yo+ handicaps had a lower PRB of 0.56. As with my first Instant Expert research offering, it seems 4yo+ handicaps see the Instant Expert at its most effective, when there is generally more data available from which to populate the scores and colour codings that the view thrives on.

**

Summary

In this article horses with negative IE Shortlist scores have performed very poorly across the board and are horses I believe we should be ignoring nine times out of ten. This type of performance is similar to what we noted with horses ranked ninth or lower in the first article. The same pattern is occurring – the higher ranked runners have totally outperformed lower ranked runners; higher individual Shortlist scores have outperformed lower scores.

Clearly, these two articles have only scratched the surface as far as the Geegeez Instant Expert is concerned. However, the early findings have shown that this tool has real potential to help pinpoint runners which should offer good value and others which likely represent poor value. Making money over the longer term when betting is about finding value. If we can do this regularly enough, we will come out in front. And, crucially, using tools like Instant Expert means we'll have fun in the process!

The Instant Expert tab is something I always look at when analysing races for potential betting opportunities and, I hope via these two articles, I have converted more Gold members to do likewise.

Until next time...

- DR

A First Look Under the Instant Expert Bonnet

10 May 2026/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

An initial investigation into Geegeez Instant Expert

I wonder how many people who read my weekly articles here are Geegeez Gold members? If you are, I think you're going to like this one... and if not, maybe it will give a gentle nudge to try things out, writes Dave Renham.

Introduction

One of the many benefits of being a Gold member are the daily racecards. These give far more ‘bang for our buck’ compared with other racing sites. Below is a screenshot of the racecard for a contest at Wolverhampton on Tuesday 5^th May of this year:

As we can see, there is the usual type of information we would see on most racecards such as the draw, recent form figures, name of the horse, age of the horse, weight carried, the trainer, jockey and official rating. However, we also get to have the Racing Post Rating (RPR) for each horse, the Racing Post Topspeed figure (TS), and Peter May’s excellent ratings (SR).

These extras are just the start, as if we cast our eyes to the top of the Racecard we can see some tabs: Full Form, Profiler, Instant Expert, Pace, Draw, Trends and Odds. Clicking on these tabs presents a wealth of further information and data in order to assist with our race analysis. There are also some icons just below these tabs (between the word ‘Horse’ and ‘Age’) with breeding data, jockey and trainer form etc, etc. So, to coin a phrase, these racecards are literally gold!

In this article I want to focus on the Instant Expert tab in a little more detail. This tab is exclusive to Geegeez, and the tab lets us see a variety of key data for horses as shown below using the same race as above:

Instant Expert gives us punters key horse information. It has a unique ability to summarise the form profile of every runner in the race into a single easily digestible view. It covers the form of each horse in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of five key areas namely going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating for each horse with their last winning official rating. The display is colour coded to help see things more clearly at a glance: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures. It should be noted that the past data is taken from UK and Irish racing only so will not include overseas form.

Users have the ability to change parameters easily. In the above example I am using placed form over two years. This is my favoured combination, but at the touch of a button we can change this to one or five years, or even look beyond that for older horses using the ‘All’ tab. We can look at win data only if preferred over any of the four-time frame options. Also, we can expand individual areas if required; so for example when I look at All Weather races, after looking at the stats for the specific going, I will click the going tab, so it includes both standard going and standard to slow to give me extra data. Clearly, we can do the same with all other variables should we wish and I will often do this for longer distances on the distance dropdown. For example, if a National Hunt race is being run over 2 miles 1 furlong, I will expand a little by including past results from any race from 2 miles to 2 miles 2 furlongs.

In addition to drilling into each horse within the five key areas, we are able to look at sires, trainers and jockeys within those areas too should we wish. Sire data is particularly useful for 2yo races for example, when the majority of runners have little or no past form to speak of. Trainer data is something most punters like to look at, and I will always look at the trainer data when analysing any race. This Instant Expert tool is exceptionally useful, and we can crunch so much data within a matter of a few seconds.

In the last few months there has been a new addition to the Instant Expert template, namely a new column with scores based on The Shortlist scoring system. Green percentages score three points, one point for amber, none for grey, and minus one for red. Hence across the five areas horses can obtain a top score of 15 (five greens) and the lowest score is -5 (five reds). The scores update when you change the variables and dropdowns above the main data grid. In the screenshot I shared above, the Shortlist column has the heading ‘Sh’ and is highlighted in the green box.

In this race, we can see Kento had the highest Shortlist score of 11, whereas Tomarlo had the lowest figure of -3.

Having set the scene, I am now going to share some research I have undertaken connected with these Shortlist scores. I have used a data set that I used for run style / pace articles a year ago, in May 2025. I will be looking at 5f handicap data from the whole of 2024 with the exception of 2yo handicaps, or nurseries, due to limited past horse form.

This sample covers 575 races and over 5000 horses with their individual Instant Expert Shortlist totals. This, therefore, is a reasonable sized sample, and I must say that adding over 5000 Shortlist scores to my Excel sheet was not the quickest process! [We're very grateful! - Ed.]

After all the leg work to input these individual scores, I hoped that I would find something worth sharing! Let’s see…

I am going to write this research up while crunching the numbers so, at this point, I do not know which way this will go. Normally, I do all the research, then crunch the numbers and then write it up. Therefore, it will read more in the present tense than usual.

So, to recap, the highest possible Shortlist score is 15 and the lowest -5 so one area I plan to look into will be the performance of different individual Shortlist scores. I guess the hope is that the higher scores, 12, 13 and 15, (14 is not a score that can be achieved), would certainly win more often and hopefully prove better value, than the lowest scores such as negative values of -1 to -5. However, there is a slight caveat to this because there will be plenty of races that are contested by horses with modest or poor long-term records and hence a Shortlist score of 3 or 4 could in fact be the highest Shortlist score in the race; so I will also need to rank the Shortlist scores in each race. One would hope and indeed expect that the higher ranked positions would win more often than the lower ranked ones and, assuming that is the case, does that lead to a difference in returns?

In terms of these ranked positions, there will be some horses in most races who have the same Shortlist score and therefore they will be treated as ‘joints’. In other words, if we have a five-runner race and the Shortlist scores are 13, 11, 8, 8 and 0 then the horses scoring ‘8’ with be ranked both ranked third, there will be no fourth ranked horse, with the horse with ‘0’ being ranked fifth. Fairly obviously I hope the 13 score would be ranked one or top, with the ‘11’ second.

In this article I will start by looking at the results with no price cap as I just want to examine the raw data first. Obviously, the odd big priced winner could skew the bottom lines, but I will mention it when that happens. I will probably use a price cap at various junctures, I’m just not sure exactly when as yet.

Instant Expert Shortlist (Sh) – Performance by Rank

My starting point is to look at the ranked positions of the Shortlist scores across all the handicap races in my sample. I began by comparing their win percentages / win strike rate. The graph below shows the breakdown:

The hope was that we would see the usual sliding scale from left to right as we normally do when we look at any type of ‘ranking’. Generally, that has been the case here, although those ranked seven and eight are slightly out of kilter. I think because there were a good number of ‘joint’ positions we should expect slightly more overlap than normal. The good news though is when we look at either end of the graph we see the top ranked runners winning the most often and those ninth or worse winning the least. Not only that but the top ranked have by far the best win rate and likewise those ninth or lower have by far the worst.

To build the picture further I want to look at the PRBs (Percentage of Rivals) for each rank. This metric essentially creates much bigger sample sizes as the figures are affected by all the runners in every race. Hence, I am hoping this graph will have the near perfect left to right sliding scale:

0.58 is a strong PRB for the top ranked and we essentially see our ‘normal’ type of graph when analysing the performance of ratings or in this case rankings.

So, how does all this equate then into profit and loss returns? As I tend to do in all my pieces, I will use Betfair SP (BSP) less 2% commission on any winning bets for these calculations. Here are the splits:

As far as I am concerned, it makes excellent reading if focusing solely on either end of the table. The top ranked runners have by far the best win strike rate, while the top two ranked runners combined have seen very small losses overall. Meanwhile those ranked ninth and tenth have produced significant losses of nearly 46p and 30p in the £ respectively. These definitely look to be horses to avoid.

However, we can see that those horses ranked seventh and eighth both made decent overall profits. At first glance this is not ideal as I would have preferred to see any profitable figures at, or near the top of, the table. However, both of their profit figures have been skewed by one big priced winner in each case. A horse called Rainyniteingeorgia won at Lingfield on 22^nd December 2024 at the odds of 127.21 when ranked seventh. Take that winner out, and the remaining 427 horses ranked in seventh place would have made an overall loss. In terms of the eighth ranked winners Big Nut won at Musselburgh in August ‘24 at odds of 80.0 which wipes out a huge chunk of the eighth ranked runners’ profits.

Instant Expert Shortlist (Sh) – top two ranked runners

I want now to dig into the top two ranked runners in a bit more detail as when combined together they have not been that far from breaking even (losses of just under 2.5 pence in the £). With these combined results I am going to see if they have performed better or worse within different areas. To begin with, I am going to look at Class of Race. Here are the splits for each Class level combining the results of the top two ranked runners:

The figures do not fluctuate massively. Lower win rates in Class 2 and 3 races is what I would expect as these races tend not only to be very competitive but have bigger fields. Bigger fields mean lower win percentages. Also, the data sets for both of these class brackets are relatively small. Returns are similar across the different classes, although in Class 4 races the losses were a tad above the rest.

How about if we split the top two ranked runners by the Race Age Classification? There are three main types being 3yo only races, 3yo+ (races for horses 3 years old and older), and 4yo+ (4 years old and older races). There was one 6yo+ race in the sample which is obviously too small to worry about!

Before digging into the stats for each I am hoping to find slightly better results for the more exposed runners, namely the 4yo+ races. I am also expecting that the 3yo+ races would be the least predictable with less exposed 3yos running against more exposed rivals. However, I have been known to be wrong before! Right, let's see how the top two ranked runners have fared across the three different age classification types:

The 3yo only results are interesting; definitely better than I would have expected. The results for the 3yo+ and 4yo+ races seem to match my initial hypothesis which is pleasing. There is a significant difference in the strike rates between 4yo+ and 3yo+ races for these top two ranked runners. Also, the 4yo+ results for these runners see very decent returns of close to 16p in the £, compared with losses of over 17p in the £ in 3yo+ races.

However, before we get too carried away, the 4yo+ figures did have a BSP winner of 55.0 which accounts for a decent chunk of the overall profit figure. Therefore, it makes sense to implement a price cap when comparing these 3yo+ and 4yo+ results to avoid bigger priced runners potentially skewing bottom lines. Thus, for the next dataset I will include only horses that were priced under 15.0 BSP. Let's see if this changes things or not. I will build up the tension by first comparing the win and each way (win & placed) percentages for each:

We see positive correlation with the 4yo+ top two ranked runners having outperformed their 3yo+ counterparts in both the win percentage and the EW percentage. This also correlates so far with what saw before I introduced a price cap. What about the profit/loss returns? The table below shows the splits and does the 4yo+ group come out on top as before?

They have indeed, and comfortably so. Based on this sample, and I appreciate it is just one sample of races, it seems that the top two rated runners from the Instant Expert Shortlist scores should be considered a strong positive in 4yo+ handicaps.

Sticking with 4yo+ handicaps, how have the top two rated performed when they finished first, second or third LTO? Let’s find out:

These figures are very impressive with each one showing a profit. I should add a caveat that each individual LTO position sample is fairly modest. However, to create a bigger sample, if we combine the results to include any horse that finished in the top three LTO we get 50 wins from 195 (SR 25.6%) for a healthy BSP profit of £54.17 (ROI +27.8%). Based on these findings, horses that finished in the first three LTO require close scrutiny if racing next time in a 4yo+ handicap when in the top two of the Instant Expert Shortlist scores.

Shortlist Rank Comparison: 3yo+ Handicaps vs 4yo+ Handicaps

Before finishing I want to share the PRBs for all individual Instant Expert Shortlist ranks for both 4yo+ handicaps and 3yo+ handicaps. We have seen already that the top two ranked runners have performed much better in 4yo+ races. How about using a PRB comparison across the board? The chart below gives us a neat graphical comparison:

This graph perfectly illustrates why, for this sample of races, the ranking of Instant Expert Shortlist scores would have worked better in 4yo+ handicaps compared with their 3yo+ counterparts. The graph highlights the edge to higher ranked runners in 4yo+ handicaps coupled with the fact that the lower ranked runners perform less well when compared to the lower ranked 3yo+ groupings.

It is important to reiterate that what the graph shows is what we should expect from drilling into each horse in terms of their record on the going, in the specific race class, at the course, over the distance, and within a specific field size grouping. Handicappers aged four or older, as a rule, would have raced more often than 3yo handicappers over a full 2-year period. This would be especially true in the first half of the year, as 3yos only have two full years of races once they reach the end of their 3yo year, and that's assuming they started racing early on as juveniles.

More data for each of the five areas should be expected to be more robust and reliable.

*

When I started this research, I was heading into the dark somewhat. I assumed I would have enough decent material for an article and, as it turns out, I have plenty more to delve into. And I haven’t even started to look at the individual Shortlist scores from 15 to -5 yet. All in good time!.

Based on my findings so far, the Instant Expert tab is one that is not only unique to Geegeez, but it really might have the potential to almost single-handedly improve our bottom line. That certainly seems the case for the data analysed to date.

Next week I will continue my research and share the rest of my findings.

Until then...

- DR

Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24

4 September 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

3.20 Salisbury
3.30 Lingfield
5.40 Newbury
6.15 Clonmel
7.10 Newbury
8.30 Wolverhampton

And aside from a Class 2 maiden for 2yo fillies (not my bag at all), the highest-rated of those is the 7.10 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

A competitive-looking race on paper with plenty of info on the racecard itself, so let's start there and look at recent form, where Bright comes here seeking a hat-trick after a place and two wins from his last three. Regal Envoy is 2 from 6 and Miss Stormy Knight is 3 from 4.

Of the other nine runners, Supreme King, Vince Lombardi and Arnaz have one win each from their last seven outings, but Justcallmepete, Capotes Dream, Lahab and Al Shabab are all winless in their previous 11, 10, and 11 races respectively, whilst Haziym, Book of Life and Al Shabab are all still maidens after 13, 5 and 8 attempts.

Most of the field raced at this Class 4 level last time out, but top weight Regal Envoy and fast finisher Lahab both drop down from Class 3, whilst Vince Lombardi, Arnaz and the afore-mentioned maiden Book of Life all step up a level.

The maiden Haziym will wear a visor for the first time here and Miss Stormy Knight is signified as a fast finisher. She's also getting a 2lb weight for age allowance as one of three 3yr olds (along with Arnaz and Al Shabab) in the contest.

Book Of Life and Vince Lombardi have both had a couple of months rest since their last unplaced outings, but the others have all raced at least once on the last three weeks or so and whilst we 've previous course winners from the seven who've tackled this track before, we do have seven previous winners over today's trip with only our three maidens plus Arnax and Lahab failing to do so, according to Instant Expert, which paints a fairly sorry picture over the last two years...

...although Miss Stormy Knight does catch the eye immediately on going/trip with the only two real standout positive pieces of data, but there are plenty of negatives and my old adage is that if the card can't always tell you who to back, it can invariably steer you away from runners like Supreme King (class), Vince Lombardi (trip), Justcallmepete (class/trip), Capote's Dream (class/trip) and Lahab (class) who all look unlikely winners at this point, even if the latter is now rated 10lbs lower than his sole win just over a year ago.

There is, of course, a possibility that the afore-mentioned quintet have been unlucky not to win more often and could well have come close to winning, so let's check the place stats from the same races as above...

Sadly, most of the reasons to swerve those horses are still in play, but Capote's Dream has a good place record at this grade and a reasonable one at the trip, so he might still figure in my calculations for the places. And if after deciding to focus on this half of the field...

...after Instant Expert, I'm hoping that if there's any draw bias that it'll be towards those drawn highest and I don't normally expect that to be the case over a fast straight 6f, but somewhat surprisingly off an albeit small sample size...

...stalls 6, 7, 8 and 11 have far better win ratios than the others, although I suspect that pace that might have greater bearing on today's result, so let's check how those 30-odd races above were actually won...

No surprises this time, that's exactly what I though I'd see over a straight, fast six and these two sets of data create a pretty predictable pace/draw heat map...

So, all I need now is for one of more of Instant Expert survivors to be a front-runner and here's how they raced in their last four outings...

...with only Regal Envoy fitting that brief.

Summary

From Instant Expert and the pace/draw analysis together, Regal Envoy is the standout character and has to be in my final thoughts. Bright is our form horse finishing 311 in his last three and has to be respected, which leaves me with one to find for my 3 against the field and of the four options left over from Instant Expert, I'm going with Miss Stormy Knight. She's not ideally suited by the pace data, but has won three of her last four, all over this trip and on good to form ground. She's also getting that 2lb allowance, which could be useful.

I'd not seen any prices until 4.45pm Wednesday and here's how the market looked at that point with only Bet365 open for business...

The bookies will pay four places here, so I'd be happy to put Miss Stormy Knight forward as an E/W possible, whilst Regal Envoy looks much better value than Bright, but I'd expect it to be very tight between the pair.

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/08/24

28 August 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.55 Ffos Las
4.00 Navan
5.05 Navan
5.20 Newbury
7.12 Southwell

...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...

...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.

Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.

The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...

Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...

It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.

It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...

...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...

...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...

...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.

Summary

Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.

Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.

A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...

...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/08/24

21 August 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

2.00 Lingfield
2.10 Newton Abbot
2.25 York
6.15 Newcastle
7.15 Newcastle
7.55 Leopardstown

...from which, we'll head (as we tend to on a Thursday) for the Racing League and Race 32, the 7.15 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed trip just shy of 1m4½f on standard to slow tapeta...

Lexington Knight won last time out and has won two of his last five, Night breeze has won each of his last three and Tafsir won last time out too for a third win in six outings and an eighth successive top-3 finish.

Corsican Caper has also won three of his last six and most of the field have at least one win in their recent form line, but Who's Glen is a three-race maiden whilst John Chard VC is winless in seven races/two years and now makes an A/W debut. Who's Glen has, however, made the frame in each of his three outings to date.

Plenty of these are moving class today, but only Kamboo drops down a level for his second run in a handicap. Matchless, Lexington Knight, Dark Jedi, John Chard VC and Percy Jones all step up one class; Who's Glen makes a handicap debut and Corsican Caper makes a yard debut as both step up two classes with in-form Tafsir stepping up three levels here, which could be tough.

Top weight True Courage did run at this grade last time out, but after three indifferent efforts is now fitted with blinkers for the first time. Kamboo is the highest-rated runner in the race off a mark of 87 (2lbd higher than True Courage), but as one of two 3yr olds in the race (along with handicap debutant Who's Glen) in the race, benefits from a very handy 9lbs weight allowance today.

Most of this field have had at least one outing in the last four weeks, but Percy Jones, Kamboo and Corsican Caper return from short breaks of 54, 63 and 77 days respectively, whilst Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week layoff since a 51 length defeat over hurdles at Fontwell. In fact, his last six outings have all been over hurdles and hasn't raced on level ground since finishing fourth of seven, beaten by sixteen lengths over 1m4f at Catterick ten months ago.

Matchless is one for four runners here (Kamboo, John Chard VC and Who's Glen being the others) yet to win over a similar trip to this one. Four other runners have also won here at Newcastle in the past with True Courage, La Pulga and Lexington Knight all former course and distance winners, whilst Furzig won here over 1m2f way back in July 2019, but that would even register on the five-year form on Instant Expert, never mind this two-year overview...

...where True Courage is probably the main standout runner. Corsican Caper, Furzig, Night Breeze and Lexington Knight have multiple wins at this trip, but Dark Jedi and La Pulga have really struggled to win, whilst Percy Jones hasn't fared that much better. Tafsir and Furzig are a combined 0 from 14 here at Newcastle over the last two years, whilst Matchless, Furzig and La Pulga are a combined 1 from 27 at Class 3! It's probably safe to assume that I'll not be backing Tafsir, Matchless, Dark Jedi, Furzig, La Pulza or Percy Jones to win here, but half of that group remain in contention for the places so far, now that I've seen this...

They're still not high up in my thoughts, of course, but they are still part of this group I'm now focusing on...

..as we now check whether any might be aided or hindered by the draw. Before I look at the draw stats, I'd say that I'd be surprised in stall position made or broke a horse's chances of winning when there's over a mile and a half to run after the gates open, but I'd better check the stats anyway, because we know that data doesn't lie!

And that data would actually suggest that those drawn highest have fared best of all. from a win perspective, stalls 4, 5, 6 and 10+ have had the best win percentages, but we're not talking huge margins here...

...although it is technically good news for Matchless, True Courage, Night Breeze, Lexington Knight and La Pulga. Sadly, if we thought that the draw data was particularly helpful, the pace stats are even less useful today, I'm afraid, with no real clear pattern...

..and this is reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, when this happens, I tend to go back to the racecard and Instant Expert to help guide me.

Summary

It's not an exact science, but if I refer to Instant Expert and the place data and focus upon those with three blocks of green, I'm suddenly only looking at four runners...

...and all four fit the slight draw bias we mentioned earlier.

Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week break from racing and tackling a first non-NH race in ten months might test his fitness. It's also almost sixteen months since he last won on the level and he has yet to make the frame in seven A/W starts, so that's an easy decision to drop him from my list of possibles.

This leaves me with a trio in racecard order of True Courage, Lexington Knight and Night Breeze and I think true Courage is definitely the weaker of the three. I don't however see much between Lexington Knight and Night Breeze, but if pushed to stick my neck out, I'd probably go with Night Breeze who rarely runs a bad race.

A market check at 5.15pm Wednesday showed this...

...and with bookies paying four places, Lexington Knight and True Courage both fall into what I'd class as being "E/W backable"

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/08/24

14 August 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

2.25 Salisbury
2.45 Chepstow
4.40 Salisbury
5.20 Tramore
5.30 Windsor
8.40 Chelmsford

...from which I'm going to look at Race 23 of the 2024 Racing League aka the 5.30 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

...featuring a quartet of LTO winners.

Great Acclaim won at Chepstow a week ago and has three wins and a place from his last five starts, Placeholder won at Wolverhampton 23 days ago and has won two of her three races to date, whilst Sunny Corner comes here on a hat-trick having won three and been a runner-up once in his last four starts. Bottom weight Zenzic got off the mark at the fourth time of asking when scoring at Yarmouth a week ago.

Starliner won six races ago, Rascal Recknell won three races ago, Candomore won four back and Post Rider has finished 1132 in her last four, but Bayadere is winless in her four outings.

Placeholder and Sunny Corner are both denoted as fast finishers and both step up a class here, as do handicap debutant Bayadere and Post Rider, whilst Zenzic is up two classes as he runs in a handicap for just the second time.

All nine bar Rascal Recknell have had at least one run in the last four weeks, but he now returns from a near 8-week break during which he was gelded. Starliner will wear blinkers for the first time today, whilst it's a debut in cheekpieces for Post Rider.

Starliner, Rascal Recknell and the maiden Bayadere are all yet to win over today's trip and sole track winner, Great Acclaim won over course and distance back in May at the start of his current five-race purple patch and this is reflected below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

We've a relatively inexperienced bunch under today's conditions, but I'm probably already against Bayadere on good to firm ground and Starliner over today's trip. The latter has also only won one of six at this grade and Rascal Recknell's record isn't much better, so whilst Instant Expert isn't necessarily pointing me towards a bet just yet, it was worth looking, because I've already been able to cross four of the nine runners off my list of contenders.

My next port of call is draw analysis, which tells us that those drawn in the three lowest stalls have fared best...

...supplying us with 46.25% and 38.43% of the placers from just 33.1% of the runners, which in isolation could be good news for Placeholder, Candonomore and Bayadere, whilst those drawn centrally (Starliner, Zenzic and Rascal Recknell) would appear to have the worst of the draw. That said, over a race as long as a mile with both left and right-handed turns, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here and at Windsor race positioning/tactics aka pace is often key and if we look at how those races above were won...

..it has certainly been a case of the further forward you can race, the better! This would appear to suit Post Rider most, if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

Summary

For me, the form horse Great Acclaim should be the one to beat here, but his tendency to run in mid-division may well cause him to lose this one, if front-running Post Rider is afforded an easy/soft lead. That said, Post Rider herself is no slouch and comes here in good nick and was only beaten by half a length last time out and she'd be my pick here in what looks like being a really tight contest.

Great Acclaim should still make the frame but will need to work hard to make up ground and if pushed for another runner to make the frame, I'd probably go with either Placeholder or Sunny Corner and it was no real surprise to see that bookies had these four runners at the head of the market at 3.45pm on Wednesday...

Zenzic could easily make the frame too, based on his LTO win and is almost at a backable price for E/W purposes, but i'm not interested in the bottom two of the market and unless I've read the race incorrectly, Bayadere seems way too short on handicap debut.

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/08/24

7 August 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

3.00 Brighton
5.52 Leopardstown
6.15 Sandown
6.30 Chepstow
7.52 Leopardstown

...from which, I'm going to look at race 17 of this year's Racing League, the 6.30 Chepstow, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

This looks like a really open contest with only fast finishing Alpine Girl coming here off the back of a win. She scored at Salisbury almost four weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick having also won at Lingfield in June. Ingra Tor, Muscika and Gis A Sub all had top 3 finishes last time out.

Dolly Gray, Connies Rose and Havana Rum have all won two of their last six outings and Gis A Sub was a winner two starts ago, but Gisburn, Ingra Tor, Eminency, Coup de Force and Muscika are on losing runs of 9, 12, 13 , 7 and 12 races respectively.

Gisburn does drop down a class here, though and Eminency is down two grades, so that might help their causes, but both Alpine Girl and Gis A Sub are up two classes here. Havana Rum is denoted as being a fast finisher and at just seven days since his last race, he's the quickest turned back out, but all ten have raced at least once in the last seven weeks.

All ten have also won at least once over today's trip, but only two have run/won here at Chepstow. Coup de Force is 1 from 1 here, having scored over 5f on just her second career start way back in June 2021, whilst Connies Rose is 5 from 18 at this venue comprising of 3 wins from 6 at 5f, 1 win from 4 at 7f and 1 win from 8 over this 6f course and distance. She has also made the frame in 6 of her 13 defeats here and her last four results here read 3213 and those are included in the 2-year form shown on Instant Expert below...

..and from a mediocre set of win figures, Connies Rose probably edges it and she's certainly one of the ones standing out on the place data too. Gis A Sub has had enough chances at class/trip already and I suspect another failure to make the frame here. From a win perspective alone, many of these have struggled to get home over today's trip, but with most of them having decent place results, it might just be a poor race.

On the face of it, there doesn't appear to be a huge advantage from stall positioning...

...but closer inspection suggests that if you were given a choice, you'd take stalls 1 or 2...

..but a look at the pace/draw heat map leads me to believe that pace will be more key to the result here than the draw will...

...and our Pace Analyser backs this thought up...

So, we need to try to work out where the pace in the race might be and if we've got a front-runner drawn low or high, then they should be in the mix. We do this by looking back over the field's last few races...

...where the low-drawn Connies Rose is likely to lead the way.

Summary

This is a tricky contest to call, but Connies Rose is the course specialist and scored best on Instant Expert. She's got a low draw and will set the tempo of the race and I think if all goes to plan, she could at least nick a place from the front. Her results this year (282212314) suggest that she generally fails to hang on for the win, but seven places from nine says she could be an E/W option and at 14/1 with bet365 at 4.45pm on Wednesday, that looks very tempting indeed.

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/07/24

24 July 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

4.45 Doncaster
4.55 Sandown
5.30 Yarmouth
7.00 Yarmouth
7.45 Newbury
7.50 Leopardstown

...and the highest-rated of the five UK races above is Race 4 of the new season of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Yarmouth, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

My immediate thoughts were that this might well be a three-way battle between (in card order) Yantarni, Love Billy Boy and Pedro Valentino, but I don't want to dismiss any of these too soon, of course.

Love Billy Boy won last time out, as did Oliver Show who has won two of his three, a feat only bettered by Yantarni who has won each of his last three. Pedro Valentino has won two of his last five Exquisite Acclaim is two from six and Woodstock is two from seven.
Storm Star has raced just three times, but won on debut as did Ziggys Condor who is 0 from 5 since despite two really good runner-up finishes at York. Farhh To Shy, Holy Fire and How Impressive are on the cold list, though after 8, 11 and 7 respective consecutive defeats.

Farhh To Shy's cause may be helped by a drop down in class, as do Love Billy Boy and Ziggy's Condor, but Oliver Show, the cold Holy Fire and joint bottom weight Pedro Valentino all step up one class, whilst it's a two-step rise for in-form Yantarni.

The other joint bottom weight runner, Storm Star, runs in a handicap for just the second time, whilst Ziggy's Condor is now fitted with cheekpieces. Oliver Show hasn't been seen for 101 days since winning at Kempton (15th April), but the others have all had at least one run in the last six weeks.

Four of this field (Holy Fire, Love Billy Boy, Ziggy's Condor and Storm Star) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst Farhh To Shy is the only course and distance winner here, having won this race last year off a pound higher. That's great, of course, but she hasn't won since! How Impressive also won here last September, getting home by three quarters of a length over 6f off a mark 5lbs lower than today's. Both of these course wins can be seen on the 2 year win version of today's feature, Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Yantarni is probably the one that catches the eye first, especially over today's trip. There aren't too many areas for concern above, but Woodstock's 1 from 7 over 7f is a slight worry, but that win was just two starts ago plus he also won over this trip on the A/W at Wolverhampton back in April. You'll also notice below that Woodstock has made the frame in half of those six defeats, suggesting that he might be one to watch from an E/W perspective...

...and at this point (without ruling any out), I'm more interested in the runners emerging from stalls 1, 4, 5, 8 and 10. I'm not too concerned that they're spread across the range of the stalls, but I don't expect much advantage from the draw here, as shown from previous contests here...

...but a straight run on good to form ground here at Yarmouth always screams "early pace" to me and those 70-odd race above have certainly favoured those brave enough to try to win the race from the front...

...which opens the door slightly for the likes of Exquisite Acclaim and How Impressive, based on their recent efforts...

...although what I suspect will happen here is that they'll tow the nearby Pedro Valentino, Yantarni and Love Billy Boy in to the race and ultimately get swallowed up by them.

Summary

I started by suggesting that this might well be a three-way battle between (in card order) Yantarni, Love Billy Boy and Pedro Valentino and to be honest, I've not seen too much to shake/sway me from that, although Woodstock also became of interest during the process. I think Woodstock has a live (if slim) chance of making the frame, but I think he's going to need one of my trio to slip up to do so. That said at 20/1 with Betfair/PP, I wouldn't you off a small E/W bet, although I'd take the 18/1 and 4 places from Sky, if you're going to back him.

Now back to my chosen trio and based on the above, I'm going with the 9/2 Pedro Valentino to hold off the 4/1 Yantarni and Love Billy Boy, who is bordering on E/W territory at 15/2.

Odds quoted as of 5.15pm Wednesday.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/07/24

17 July 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

4.40 Chepstow
4.45 Leopardstown
4.55 Hamilton
6.30 Epsom
7.42 Killarney
8.30 Leopardstown

...where the 'best' (highest rated, anyway!) of the three UK races looks like being the 6.30 Epsom, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f (+33yds after rail movements) on good to soft ground...

Blenheim Star was the only one of this field to have won their last race and she has won three of her last four, making her the clear form horse here. Uncle Dick was a runner-up nine days, having won his previous race and Hello Cotai was also a runner-up a week ago and has made the frame in four of his last five, but the fact remains that he's a nine-race maiden.

Charlie Mason was third on his last outing and did win four starts ago, but aside from the two maidens Hello Cotai (9 attempts) and Seamore (three attempts), only Roundabout has struggled to win of late, going down on eight successive occasions since a win at Bath at the end of last August.

Half of the field are moving class here with three (Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star & Hello Cotai) stepping up a level whilst top weight Shot of Love drops down from Class 4. Seamore makes a handicap debut some ten weeks after the last of three fairly nondescript efforts in Novice company and I should point out that five of this field are only 3 yrs old, meaning they get a 9lb allowance that Shot Of Love (4yo), Uncle Dick (6yo) and Roundabout Silver (5yo) don't benefit from.

We've not much to report in the way of course/distance successes, but Unreal Connection's sole career win from eight starts came here at Epsom over 7f eleven months and six starts ago, whilst Uncle Dick was winner over 1m½f at Wolverhampton way back in January 2021. All of this means that Shot of Love's last Flat win (10 months ago) is the only time any of this field have won over course and distance.

The positives from Instant Expert are that Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star have excellent records over this kind of trip winning a collective 9 of 14 (64.3%) races on the Flat, but conversely Roundabout Silver's 0 from 7 at Class 5 isn't something to write home about...

...and although he has a reasonable place record at the going/track/trip, he has only made the frame once in those seven defeats at this level...

Elsewhere Hello Cotai's recent run of near misses raises his profile as a potential placer, but I still think this might be between those who excel at the trip ie Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star, who will race from stalls 3 and 6 over a track and trip that (to me at least) doesn't seem to offer any discernible draw bias, other than that those drawn lowest have an inferior place record, despite winning their fair share of races...

...and I suspect that it'll be race tactics and race positioning aka pace that determines the outcome here, as the best way of winning here is to set the tempo from the front.

...and the advice is that if you can't set the pace, you might as conserve energy at the back of the field and then come with a late run, taking advantage of those who've blown themselves out getting up the hill. Based on recent outings, Shot of Love is likely to be the pacemaker today, with the likes of Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star and Charlie Mason the ones coming with a late run.

Summary

It has been Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick getting the mentions throughout my summary. Both are in good form, of course, but Blenheim Star is in the better form and benefits from that 9lbs age allowance, so I'd take Blenheim Star to beat Uncle Dick here. As for the other placer, Hello Cotai has made the frame in four of his last five and he could easily makes that five from six here.

I'd no odds to quote at 4pm Wednesday, but I wouldn't be too surprised in the top three in the market are my 1-2-3 and I suspect that none will be E/W backable, but if you wanted an E/W play, then Charlie Mason might be best positioned to edge one of my three out as he's likely to come late with Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick, who might just tow him into contention.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/07/24

10 July 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.45 Carlisle
3.35 Newmarket
4.55 Doncaster
6.25 Newbury
8.30 Leopardstown

...the best of which has to be the 3.35 Newmarket aka the Prince of Wales' Stakes, a 6-runner, Group 2 flat race over a right-handed 1m4f on what looks like being good to soft / soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this should be Hamish's race to win/lose with (in card order) Giavelotto and Arrest the best of the rest and most likely to challenge, but let's see...

GIAVELLOTTO was last seen eight weeks ago winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup at York for the second year running. He carries a 3lb penalty for that win, but does drop back 2f in trip. He has won three of his last seven races, has a career place strike rate of 75% (9 from 12) and was a winner here over 1m6f back in August 2022 in what was his last handicap run.

OUTBOX is one of three Frankel offspring in this race along with Arrest and Time Lock and is a confirmed front-runner, as demonstrated when he won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley track here at HQ on his last UK run (3rd May) beating the re-opposing Time Lock by 2½ lengths) to end a run of 14 consecutive UK defeats. Has finished 9th of 10 and last of 7 in two runs in Europe since and could well struggle here.

ARREST has won four of ten starts, making the frame is half of his six defeats, including two runner-up finishes in his three runs (one of which was the 2023 St Leger!) since winning the Gr 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last August. He also won the Gr 3 Chester Vase in May '23 and ran a decent race at Chester again last time out.

HAMISH won the Gr3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester just over two years ago and since then has finished in the first two home in nine successive races, winning six times taking his last ten finishes to read 1212111112 culminating in a one length defeat in the Gr 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, when probably given too much to do late on. I can't seen him not finishing in the first two here yet again.

MAXI KING is probably way out of his depth here if truth be told. His best result to date is a Class 2 handicap win over this trip on the Rowley Mile in May but was only 11th of 16 in another Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out.

TIME LOCK won a Listed race at Craon in France last September before going on to land the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes on the Rowley Mile here last September and was also a 2½ length runner-up behind Giavellotto in the Jockey Club Stakes on her return from over six months off the track. She disappointed in the Coronation Cup last time out, when last home of five, beaten by the best part of 24 lengths and 23 lengths behind Hamish, so she has plenty to find here based on that result. The going is also against her here, as her two wins in the UK came on Good to Firm ground.

Instant Expert also puts a tick next to Hamish's name based purely on win stats under today's expected conditions...

...with Arrest probably next in line, although Giavellotto's place figures would appear to be better than Arrest's and the chances are that these are both vying for second place if truth be told...

...and Outbox looks hard to back/recommend!

As you'd expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a trip of a mile and a half in a small field, but if there is anything to be gained, then the lower half of the draw has prevailed most often, not withstanding a freakish result for stall 5, which might give more hope to followers of Giavellotto...

If a horse does want to gain an advantage, there is a way and that's by dictating the pace of the race from the front as leaders here have done far better in those races above from both a win and place perspective, than the other three running styles...

...which might just give Outbox a chance of competing if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

So, Outbox is drawn low and has the ideal pace profile here in a race that lacks other genuine front-runners, but he's in poor form right now and I can't see Ryan Moore (on Time Lock) letting him get as far clear as he did in the Jockey Club Stakes in May, especially as Time Lock is 3lbs better off here. What I suspect will happen is that Outbox will be sent out to win from the front the other five will race together and slowly reel him in.

Summary

I still can't see Hamish getting beaten here and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing shorties, his current (5pm Wednesday) price of 10/11 might even represent some value, as he has been sent off shorter than that in three of his last six Group 3 contests. So I suppose, it's just a case of ho comes second and that's still down to Giavelotto / Arrest for me. There's not much to choose between them, if truth be told, but Giavelotto has a better place record than Arrest and his 6/1 ticket offers more value than the latter's 7/2 and could well be an E/W option at 1/4 odds.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/07/24

3 July 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.40 Haydock
4.25 Bellewstown
5.10 Tipperary
5.40 Tipperary
5.50 Kempton
6.45 Newbury

None of those make much appeal to me if truth be told, so I'm going off-piste with a look at the highest-rated handicap of the day in the UK, the 7.35 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse between Cracksking and The Goat at fairly short prices, leaving the way open for an E/W bet or two, but let's check...

Only Cracksking won last time out and this son of Frankel is 2 from 4 (3211) on the All-Weather. He beat the re-opposing The Goat by a neck in that race (here over course and distance), whilst Simply Sondheim and Ludos Landing were also runners-up on their last outings.

Way of Life has made the frame in 11 of his last 14, but has failed to win any of his last 22 races, whilst Global Heat, There's The Door and Naval Commander are on losing streaks of 14, 7 and 8 races respectively.

There's The Door does have the benefit of a drop in class here, though, as do Simply Sondheim and Graignes, but the bottom four in the weights, Way of Life, Naval Commander, Met Office and Ludos Landing all step up in class, so it's hard to envisage either of Way of Life or Naval Commander getting back to winning ways here.

Gooloogong runs in a handicap for just the second time (last of eight over course and distance behind Cracksking & The Goat as above LTO four weeks ago), whilst bothNaval Commander and Simply Sondheim make yard debuts on their return from lengthy layoffs of 364 days and 292 days respectively. Both Met Office (232d) and Graignes (241d) might also be in need of the run, but the other seven runners here have raced in the last 8-40 days.

All bar There's The Door have had at least one run here at Kempton, but only Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, Graignes and Naval Commander have won here with all bar Naval Commander and Ludos Landing having tackled today's trip. Cracksking, The Goat, Way of Life and Met Office have all won over 1m4f, but only Cracksking has won at track and trip, when triumphant here four weeks ago.

Based on this preview, it's no surprise that Cracksking is the standout in terms of wins on our free daily feature Instant Expert...

...with Simply Sondheim and Graignes also having gone well, but they are both returning from long breaks. From a place perspective, my shortlist would have to be Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life and these runners occupy stalls 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias to take advantage of, that it benefits those drawn lowest...

...and that does appear to be the case, albeit marginally. I suspect the pace might well tell us a bit more about who might challenge here. I've got it in my head that even though the trip is a mile and a half that those setting the pace or keeping up with it have fared the best, but as ever, its always best to check the data...

Well, I'm sort of right, I suppose. the advantage seems more pronounced from a place perspective, of course, but one this is apparent : you don't want to dwell and be left behind here. So, I suppose that if one or more of my low-drawn Instant Expert shortlist are runners who like to get on with things, we might have ourselves a live E/W chance at worst, so let's look at their last few races...

...with four of my shortlisted quintet filling the first five berths on the pace chart, making the resultant pace/draw heat map look like this...

Summary

Based on our free feature of the day, Instant Expert and the pace/draw data, I'm inclined to stick with Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life as the five runners to choose from and with Simply Sondheim and Graignes likely to need a run after a lengthy lay-off, I'm left with the two that I though would battle it out for the win, Cracksking and The Goat plus perennial placer but rare winner Way of Life and I'll take them in that order.

The one I did like earlier but doesn't seem to tick any boxes is bottom weight Ludo's Landing. He's in great form, receives weight all round and could well spring a surprise. The Wednesday 5.30pm market looked like this...

...so there could be an E/W bet or two in the offing, if you're that way inclined.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/06/24

26 June 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

3.00 Newcastle
3.35 Newcastle
4.30 Newmarket
9.00 Leicester

...from which we're off to the July course at HQ for the 4.30 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3 , 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

...a field where all bar Ararat have raced in the last four weeks. He returns from a nine-month absence but is the only LTO winner in this race. Elsewhere Mitrosonfire was a recent runner-up and both Benacre and Darkness made the frame on their last outings. The field are, however, a little shy of wins in their recent form lines as only Havana Blue (2 from 6), Persuasion, Ararat (2 from 4) and Lord Rapscallion have managed to win any of their last seven races.

Mitrosonfire, Able Kane and Waiting All Night might struggle to end their losing runs as they now step up a class here, as do LTO winner Ararat and bottom weight Lord Rapscallion, but Persuasion drops down a level.

Waiting All Night is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip, as his sole win in 18 races to date was over 5f at Wolverhampton and he's 0 from 14 on turf but Darkness has won over a mile here at Newmarket, whilst Havana Blue, Ararat, Mitrosonfire and Able Kane are all former course and distance winners.

Instant Expert shows us quite clearly how difficult this field has found it to win over the last two years...

...with the returning Ararat probably the pick of the pack. I'm hoping that the place stats suggest that some of these have been unlucky, because I'm already getting question marks about Toimy Son (trip), Persuasion (class. track and trip), Mitrosonfire (trip), Darkness (going, class and trip), Able Kane (class & trip), Waiting All Night (trip) and Lord Rapscallion (Generally!); it might have been easier to say who I didn't have too many concerns about.

We'd better check those place stats!

...and they certainly show a few of these in a different light, especially Persuasion and Darkness. Their win stats make them hard to back outright, but they're certainly to strangers to making the frame. Benacre loves the trip and has placed here too, so these three could be a second look later along with Ararat (from the win stats) and maybe Havana Blue.

Benacre was a Listed class runner-up, beaten by just three quarters of a length over this trip on the Rowley track here last summer and that should stand him in good stead today as he lines up closest to the rail, now that Arabian Storm (who had been drawn in stall 1) has been withdrawn. That said, I don't think there's much to be gained from stalls position here today

...although those drawn higher have made the frame slightly more often, but there's really not a great deal in it and I suspect that much more will depend on race tactics, because the pace stats for those near-150 races above tells a pretty clear story...

...that being up with the pace is key here from both a win and place perspective. Leaders make up approximately 13.3% of the runners in those races, but have accounted for 28.5% of the winners, which speaks for itself and this looks like more good news for Ararat, Benacre and Darkness if their last few runs are anything to go by...

Summary

The above stats say that pace wins the race here over 7f and alphabetically Ararat, Benacre and Darkness are the three most likely to set the tempo of this contest. Ararat was the sole standout on the win side of our daily feature, Instant Expert, whilst Benacre and Darkness both had good place records, so I think that they're going to be my three against the field.

It's a bit of a gamble that Ararat will be race-sharp after nine months off, but if pushed to pick a winner, it'd be him and Hills were offering 7/1 at 4.15pm on Wednesday, which is bordering on E/W territory, never mind a win bet! Darkness and Benacre were trading at 11/2 and 6/12 respectively, so neither would take my fancy as an E/W bet, but I expect both to give a good account of themselves.

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/06/24

19 June 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Apologies for the lack of a post for Wednesday's racing, I was up in the Troodos mountains all day/evening with no signal. There'll also be no column for Friday's racing, as I'll be making my way back home from Cyprus on Thursday.

As for Thursday's racing, did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

3.20 Ripon
3.45 Ascot
4.10 Chelmsford
6.00 Wolverhampton
7.50 Leopardstown

Obviously the Ribblesdale at Ascot is the ‘best’ race on that list, but there are others here on Geegeez better qualified to assess a race of such magnitude (and I’m sure they already have or are about to!), so I’ll switch my focus to Essex, where there’s a reasonable-looking (on paper, at least) handicap in the shape of the 4.10 Chelmsford, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack …

We have two LTO winners in this field today, Wadacre Gomez who has won 4 of his last 8 on the A/W and Sniper’s Eye, who is actually up two classes for just his second handicap appearance and wears a hood for the first time upon his comeback from a lengthy (266 days) absence. Stay Well was the only other runner to make the frame on their last run, but he’s also the only runner in this race without a win in six, having been beaten in fourteen straight contests since his last win in October 2021.

In addition to the Sniper’s Eye, bottom-weight and sole female Roxanne is our only other class riser as she steps up one class and also sports a hood for the first time, whilst top-weight Enfjaar is our only class dropper, down one level from Class 2. He has, however, not raced for 229 days and has been gelded during his layoff. Like Sniper’s Eye, Tarjeeh also makes just a second handicap run.

We’re a bit shy on course/distance success here, but both Wadacre Gomez and Zealot are former course and distance winners, whilst Enfjaar won here over a mile thirteen months ago, interestingly after another long (236 days) absence, so the break might not rule him out today. Stay Well has also won over today’s trip, albeit on quick ground at Windsor, way back in April 2021.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have performed under similar conditions over 2yrs, 5yrs or all-time and this is the 2-year snapshot…

...where Zealot and Wadacre Gomez have clearly had the most recent success even if Zealot has struggled over the last year, losing five on the bounce since winning seven of eight races in a four month period from December 2022 to March 2023. That raised his mark from 59 to 99, but he's now running off 84, some 12lbs below his last win, which could make him dangerous. As for Wadacre Gomez, he has four wins and a place from five efforts over course and distance and is only up 2lbs from his win here two weeks ago. Enfjaar probably shades the role of third best on those numbers above.

Quite a few of those have swathes of red next to their name, especially Diamond Ranger who looks the most vulnerable of the eight, but maybe he has just been unlucky not to win. The place stats will tell us quickly enough...

...and they suggest that he's not as bad as his win record would suggest, but that he's clearly not at this best at Class 3 and/or over 1m2f. Stay Well's place stats are also poor and I think I'd rule these two out here. Top of our speed ratings, Roxanne, is unexposed under these condition and could be a dark horse.

Course and distance specialist Wadacre Gomez is drawn widet of all here, out in stall 8, but I don't think that will make or break his race, as there's no huge draw bias over 1m2f here at Chelmsford in 8-runner contests, if truth be told...

Stalls 3 to 5 may have a slight edge in terms of wins and those in 4 & 5 have clearly better place returns and whilst this is encouraging news for the likes of Tarjeeh, Sniper's Eye and Diamond Ranger, they are among the weaker runners here and might need all the help we can get.

Pace, however, is generally a different kettle of fish here at Chelmsford and regular readers of this column and/or users of our pace stats won't be surprised to learn that the further forward you race, the greater the chance of a win or place! (not the best poetry you'll ever read, but it's true!)...

So, where is the pace going to come from? Well, we don't know for sure, but by looking at the field's recent runs, we can usually make an informed guess...

There's a possibility that this might be a falsely run affair, which would play into the hands (hooves) of Wadacre Gomez on his favoured track/trip, but then again he also has the highest average pace score. Zealot was looking like an E/W possible, but having to come from the back is never easy here and that might be an issue and I think this opens the door for Enfjaar and Roxanne.

Summary

Pace wins the race they say in Chelmsford and with Wadacre Gomez heading the averages above alongside his excellent course and distance record, I'm not sure a 2lb rise here will stop him from going in again and this is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite with Bet365 (only book open at 3.45pm Wednesday) I was hoping he'd be more like 10/3 for this, but either way he's the one I think should win here.

I did like Zealot as an E/W option, but the pace might count against him. That said, if it's a falsely run race that might well suit him, as he's used to doing all his best work late on. Enfjaar was third best on Instant Expert and was handily placed in the pace profiler, as was the filly Roxanne who was a one-length runner-up over course and distance two months ago and should go well again here.

Enfjaar currently trades at 9/2, which again is a little shorter than I expected and too short for an E/W bet, but from that angle 16/1 might be generous about Zealot and/or Roxanne if things fall their way.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/06/24

5 June 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

5.10 Haydock
6.30 Leopardstown
6.45 Chelmsford
8.00 Leopardstown

Now, as most of you know, I don't really do Irish racing and that leaves me with a pair of uninspiring Class 5 UK races above, so I'm swerving those to look at whatever the highest-rated race might be in the UK instead.

And that appears to be the 3.25 Hamilton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out, although Kelpie Grey was a runner-up after three straight wins and four wins from five.

This initially looks a pretty open contest, yet aside from the horses named above only Persuasion made the frame last time out, but only Monsieur Kodi and Manila Scouse are winless in seven or more (7 & 10 respectively).

Only five of these (Roman Drago, Paws for Thought, Dare to Hope, Monsieur Kodi & Manila Scouse) actually raced at Class 2 on their last outing, as Glenfinnan, Raatea, Persuasion and Almarada Prince all step up from Class 3 whilst Kelpie Grey and Illusionist were both last seen at Class 4.

Paws for Thought, Illusionist and Manila will have their usual respective cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue tie in place today and Paws For Thought's jockey claims 7lbs whilst Almarada Prince will be ridden by a 5lb claimer in addition to him receiving an 8lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old. The whole field have raced in the last 12 to 39 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here today.

Persuasion , Kelpie Grey and Manila Scouse have yet to win over this trip, whilst Paws for Thought and Illusionist have scored here over course and distance. Almarada Prince has also won here at Hamilton, albeit over 5f as the middle win in a hat-trick last Autumn.

When it comes to looking at out feature of the day, Instant Expert, I've also included the stats from Class 3, as none of this field has particularly shone in this grade...

...so I wouldn't necessarily use Class 2 form as my immediate way of weeding runners out! From the above, the lightweight Almarada Prince and Glenfinnan are the obvious eyecatchers with Paws for Thought and Roman Dragon also hitting two blocks of green, although the latter is now 8lbs above his last winning mark and might well be in the assessor's grip.

I think we should look at the place form too, in case any of these have been unlucky not to win, especially at Class 2...

Sadly, that's not the case today, the while Class 2 form is pretty abject, so I think we should treat this as a Class 3 contest after all! Persuasion is a regular placer at that level and Almarada Prince continues to tick boxes albeit off a very small sample size, whereas Dare to Hope and Monsieur Kodi have a combined 14 places from 26 starts over 6f, which is excellent. Illusionist looks the weak link right now, though.

As you'd expect over a straight 6f on good ground, the draw stats are fairly inconclusive, but this the data we have...

I'm a great believer in the value of assessing the draw in shorter distance races, but I am cautious about over-reliance in these straight sprints, where aside from stall 1 having the rail to guide the horse and keep it straight, there shouldn't really be an advantage and it's invariably race tactics aka pace that matter more. Thankfully we have that data too! Here's how those races were won...

...unsurprisingly favouring front-runners as often tends to be case in sprints, which could be really good news for Kelpie Grey, if this field's last four races are anything to go by...

Summary

The names that crop up most during my analysis are (in card order) top weights Roman Dragon and Glenfinnan along with the two runners to be ridden by claimers, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince.

If I was to use this quartet as my shortlist, then I'd be inclined to suggest that the in-form Glenfinnan would be the most likely to win and that's probably why Hills have him as the early (4.10pm Wednesday) favourite at 4/1, which is probably where I thought he'd be priced.

The other three (Roman Dragon, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince) are all more than capable of making the frame, as are no doubt three or four others, but at respective odds of 13/2, 8/1 and 16/1, there might be some E/W joy to be had!

Please Note : I'm off to Cyprus for a fortnight tomorrow (Thursday), so there'll be no column for Friday's racing. It's a work trip (looking at some hotels), so I'll still be writing the daily column when possible, although the timings of publication may well vary from day to day.

Racing Insights, Thursday 30/05/24

29 May 2024/in Racing Insights/by Chris Worrall

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

3.00 Ffos Las
4.00 Lingfield
4.20 Ripon
5.25 Ripon
5.30 Fairyhouse
6.47 Limerick

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 4.20 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Bottom-weight Ey Up It's The Boss is not only our sole LTO winner (or even placer for that matter) in the pack, having scored here over track over trip 11 days ago, but also our sole class riser, as he steps up two classes today, Conversely, the top three in the weights are all down in class, with Bennetot and Loyal Touch down from Class 2, whilst Zarabanda was last home of eight in a Listed race, as she has been for three races on the trot!

None of our seven LTO losers even made the frame, but all bar Bennetot, Bodorgan and Titian have won at least one of their last six outings. Rogue Sea is the only runner in this field without a run in the last six weeks and he now races for the first time since mid-September 2023, having moved yards to bryan Smart and undergone a gelding operation during his layoff.

Bennetot and Bodorgan have yet to win at a similar trip, but Zarabanda, Baryshnikov, Cockalorum and Ey Up It's The Boss have all won over course and distance whilst Rogue Sea's last win (51 weeks ago) was over 1m3f on this course and it's two of our course and distance winners that initially catch the eye on our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Baryshnikov's poor return at going, class and trip have already put me off backing him and Zarabanda is only let down by a lack of wins at this trip (her best results have been at 1m/1m½f), but her soft credentials are the best here with Cockalorum also faring well. From a place perspective, we still seem to be looking at the same horse, drawn in stalls 3 to 7...

....but our draw analyser would suggest those drawn 1 to 5 would be the ones to beat, particularly from a place perspective...

...so that could be especially good for three of our course and distance winners, Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda.

If we then run those 20-odd races (I know it's a smaller than preferred sample size) through our pace analyser, we find that the wins have been spread fairly equally around the four possible running styles, but from a percentage point of view, you really want to be backing leaders/front-runners here and even more so if if you're angling towards an E/W pick...

That 63.64% place strike rate is quite telling here, so if Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and/or Zarabanda are front-runners, then they look like good bets to make the frame at the very least, so let's check the field's pace profile...

...and it looks like the pace is going to come from the lower end of the draw with Loyal Touch and Cockalorum the most likely front-runners here.

Summary

Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda are all course and distance winners and all scored well on both Instant Expert and draw, but when it came to pace profiling Cockalorum was the standout of the three and he's got to be good for a place here as he steps down in trip.

Only Hills had opened a book at 2.25pm Wednesday and they were sadly only offering 6/1 about Cockalorum, which is a bit short for E/W betting for me, but don't let me put you off if those odds are acceptable. Loyal Touch was the early 10/3 favourite and his low drawn front-running could well propel him to a place too, but I think the price is a bit mean based on his Instant Expert scores and an indifferent effort last time out.

If Cockalorum drifts, then I'd definitely put him up as an E/W option, but on the other hand Zarabanda looks a bit long as the 11/1 outsider, as she seems to tick plenty of boxes here apart from pace, but there's a chance she gets towed along by the two front0runners inside her and the pace/draw heat map for this race suggests her centrally drawn mid-division running style might not be disastrous either...

...so Zarabanda at 11/1 E/W is the option that currently interests me most with Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and market leader Loyal Touch all hoping to be in the mix.

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Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

An investigation into the Geegeez Instant Expert, Part 2

Recap

A line on ranking methodology

Instant Expert Rank #1 by Betfair Starting Price

Instant Expert (IE) top ranked runner by Price

Instant Expert (IE) top ranked runner by Price (4yo+ hcaps only)

Instant Expert top ranked runner by Age (4yo+ hcaps only)

Instant Expert rank of 9 or lower by Class

IE rank of 9 or lower by Race Classification

Individual Instant Expert Shortlist scores by PRB

Instant Expert individual scores

Instant Expert individual scores (4yo+ hcaps only)

Summary

An initial investigation into Geegeez Instant Expert

Introduction

Instant Expert Shortlist (Sh) – Performance by Rank

Instant Expert Shortlist (Sh) – top two ranked runners

Shortlist Rank Comparison: 3yo+ Handicaps vs 4yo+ Handicaps

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