Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

Racing Insights, Thursday 05/09/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.20 Salisbury
  • 3.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Newbury
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.10 Newbury
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

And aside from a Class 2 maiden for 2yo fillies (not my bag at all), the highest-rated of those is the 7.10 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

A competitive-looking race on paper with plenty of info on the racecard itself, so let's start there and look at recent form, where Bright comes here seeking a hat-trick after a place and two wins from his last three. Regal Envoy is 2 from 6 and Miss Stormy Knight is 3 from 4.

Of the other nine runners, Supreme King, Vince Lombardi and Arnaz have one win each from their last seven outings, but Justcallmepete, Capotes Dream, Lahab and Al Shabab are all winless in their previous 11, 10, and 11 races respectively, whilst Haziym, Book of Life and Al Shabab are all still maidens after 13, 5 and 8 attempts.

Most of the field raced at this Class 4 level last time out, but top weight Regal Envoy and fast finisher Lahab both drop down from Class 3, whilst Vince Lombardi, Arnaz and the afore-mentioned maiden Book of Life all step up a level.

The maiden Haziym will wear a visor for the first time here and Miss Stormy Knight is signified as a fast finisher. She's also getting a 2lb weight for age allowance as one of three 3yr olds (along with Arnaz and Al Shabab) in the contest.

Book Of Life and Vince Lombardi have both had a couple of months rest since their last unplaced outings, but the others have all raced at least once on the last three weeks or so and whilst we 've previous course winners from the seven who've tackled this track before, we do have seven previous winners over today's trip with only our three maidens plus Arnax and Lahab failing to do so, according to Instant Expert, which paints a fairly sorry picture over the last two years...

...although Miss Stormy Knight does catch the eye immediately on going/trip with the only two real standout positive pieces of data, but there are plenty of negatives and my old adage is that if the card can't always tell you who to back, it can invariably steer you away from runners like Supreme King (class), Vince Lombardi (trip), Justcallmepete  (class/trip), Capote's Dream (class/trip) and Lahab (class) who all look unlikely winners at this point, even if the latter is now rated 10lbs lower than his sole win just over a year ago.

There is, of course, a possibility that the afore-mentioned quintet have been unlucky not to win more often and could well have come close to winning, so let's check the place stats from the same races as above...

Sadly, most of the reasons to swerve those horses are still in play, but Capote's Dream has a good place record at this grade and a reasonable one at the trip, so he might still figure in my calculations for the places. And if after deciding to focus on this half of the field...

...after Instant Expert, I'm hoping that if there's any draw bias that it'll be towards those drawn highest and I don't normally expect that to be the case over a fast straight 6f, but somewhat surprisingly off an albeit small sample size...

...stalls 6, 7, 8 and 11 have far better win ratios than the others, although I suspect that pace that might have  greater bearing on today's result, so let's check how those 30-odd races above were actually won...

No surprises this time, that's exactly what I though I'd see over a straight, fast six and these two sets of data create a pretty predictable pace/draw heat map...

So, all I need now is for one of more of Instant Expert survivors to be a front-runner and here's how they raced in their last four outings...

...with only Regal Envoy fitting that brief.

Summary

From Instant Expert and the pace/draw analysis together, Regal Envoy is the standout character and has to be in my final thoughts. Bright is our form horse finishing 311 in his last three and has to be respected, which leaves me with one to find for my 3 against the field and of the four options left over from Instant Expert, I'm going with Miss Stormy Knight. She's not ideally suited by the pace data, but has won three of her last four, all over this trip and on good to form ground. She's also getting that 2lb allowance, which could be useful.

I'd not seen any prices until 4.45pm Wednesday and here's how the market looked at that point with only Bet365 open for business...

The bookies will pay four places here, so I'd be happy to put Miss Stormy Knight forward as an E/W possible, whilst Regal Envoy looks much better value than Bright, but I'd expect it to be very tight between the pair.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 29/08/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.55 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 5.05 Navan
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 7.12 Southwell

...and as Thursday night is Racing League Night, we're off to Nottinghamshire for the 7.12 Southwell for race 39, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 8 yards shy of 2m½f on standard tapeta...

...where bottom weight (thanks to his 3yo 12lb weight allowance) Warmonger is the form horse, having won each of his last three starts. Cardano also won last time out, whilst Solent Gateway and Manxman had top three finishes. Those without a win in seven starts, however include Solent Gateway and Soowaih after eleven and ten consecutive defeats respectively, whilst Boldly is a nine-race maiden.

Only Wahraan (4th of 8), Manxman (3rd of 11) and Cinnodin (5th of 11) raced at this Class 3 level last time out as Solent Gateway, Cardano, Robusto, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois all step up a class. Form horse Warmonger is up two levels, but Shagpyle does drop in class here.

The entire field have raced at least once in the last eight weeks and Cinnodin is the only previous course winner of the five to have visited this venue, having landed a Class 6, 1m6f handicap here back in April 2023. He and five others have also won over a similar trip to this one, but Wahraan, Cardano, Boldly, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois are yet to score at either track or trip, whilst Instant Expert says none of the field have a Class 3 win to their name in the last two years...

Robusto and Warmonger have a trio of wins at going/trip respectively and the only real alarm bells so far surround Solent Gateway's ability to win over 2m, having lost 11 of 12 attempts. he has made the frame in 4 of those defeats, but I won't be backing him today, especially after seeing the rest of his place form...

It's probably the end of the road for me with Wahraan too at this point as others seem better poised.

It's a two-mile race on standard going, so I wouldn't have expected any huge draw bias and wasn't surprised/ disappointed with the data, even if those drawn centrally have had slightly better results...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag with pace too, as leaders and mid-division runners haven't done as well as the stalking prominent types or those held up for a late run...

...giving us quite a few draw/pace combos that have been reasonably successful...

...whilst in terms of this field's last few runs and their own pace/draw make-up...

...Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih and Warmonger are fully in the 'preferred zone' with Manxman just shy thanks to a hold up run two starts ago and Le Rouge Chinois on the cusp due to draw vagaries.

Summary

Solent Gateway, Robusto, Cardano, Soowaih, Warmonger, Manxman and Le Rouge Chinois would be the ones to consider from the pace/draw angle, but I ruled Solent Gateway out earlier and Soowaih has lost eleven on the bounce.

Of the remaining five runners, Cardano, Soowaih and Le Rouge Chinois have yert to win at either track or trip, leaving me with the form pair Manxman and Warmonger. Warmonger will find this tougher, up two classes and carrying a 10lb penalty for his last win. he's now rated 20lbs higher than two months ago and whilst he'll be popular here, I think he might be susceptible as a front-runner to getting reeled in by Manxman, who'll probably offer more value too.

A quick look at the market as of 4.25pm Wednesday backed up my theory...

...but I'd be happy to take Manxman and Warmonger as my 1-2. Some bookies wil pay four places here and if you were looking for some E/W action, then Cardano might fit the bill at 10/1 or bigger.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 22/08/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Newton Abbot
  • 2.25 York
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle
  • 7.55 Leopardstown

...from which, we'll head (as we tend to on a Thursday) for the Racing League and Race 32, the 7.15 Newcastle, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed trip just shy of 1m4½f on standard to slow tapeta...

Lexington Knight won last time out and has won two of his last five, Night breeze has won each of his last three and Tafsir won last time out too for a third win in six outings and an eighth successive top-3 finish.

Corsican Caper has also won three of his last six and most of the field have at least one win in their recent form line, but Who's Glen is a three-race maiden whilst John Chard VC is winless in seven races/two years and now makes an A/W debut. Who's Glen has, however, made the frame in each of his three outings to date.

Plenty of these are moving class today, but only Kamboo drops down a level for his second run in a handicap. Matchless, Lexington Knight, Dark Jedi, John Chard VC and Percy Jones all step up one class; Who's Glen makes a handicap debut and Corsican Caper makes a yard debut as both step up two classes with in-form Tafsir stepping up three levels here, which could be tough.

Top weight True Courage did run at this grade last time out, but after three indifferent efforts is now fitted with blinkers for the first time. Kamboo is the highest-rated runner in the race off a mark of 87 (2lbd higher than True Courage), but as one of two 3yr olds in the race (along with handicap debutant Who's Glen) in the race, benefits from a very handy 9lbs weight allowance today.

Most of this field have had at least one outing in the last four weeks, but Percy Jones, Kamboo and Corsican Caper return from short breaks of 54, 63 and 77 days respectively, whilst Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week layoff since a 51 length defeat over hurdles at Fontwell. In fact, his last six outings have all been over hurdles and hasn't raced on level ground since finishing fourth of seven, beaten by sixteen lengths over 1m4f at Catterick ten months ago.

Matchless is one for four runners here (Kamboo, John Chard VC and Who's Glen being the others) yet to win over a similar trip to this one. Four other runners have also won here at Newcastle in the past with True Courage, La Pulga and Lexington Knight all former course and distance winners, whilst Furzig won here over 1m2f way back in July 2019, but that would even register on the five-year form on Instant Expert, never mind this two-year overview...

...where True Courage is probably the main standout runner. Corsican Caper, Furzig, Night Breeze and Lexington Knight have multiple wins at this trip, but Dark Jedi and La Pulga have really struggled to win, whilst Percy Jones hasn't fared that much better. Tafsir and Furzig are a combined 0 from 14 here at Newcastle over the last two years, whilst Matchless, Furzig and La Pulga are a combined 1 from 27 at Class 3! It's probably safe to assume that I'll not be backing Tafsir, Matchless, Dark Jedi, Furzig, La Pulza or Percy Jones to win here, but half of that group remain in contention for the places so far, now that I've seen this...

They're still not high up in my thoughts, of course, but they are still part of this group I'm now focusing on...

..as we now check whether any might be aided or hindered by the draw. Before I look at the draw stats, I'd say that I'd be surprised in stall position made or broke a horse's chances of winning when there's over a mile and a half to run after the gates open, but I'd better check the stats anyway, because we know that data doesn't lie!

And that data would actually suggest that those drawn highest have fared best of all. from a win perspective, stalls 4, 5, 6 and 10+ have had the best win percentages, but we're not talking huge margins here...

...although it is technically good news for Matchless, True Courage, Night Breeze, Lexington Knight and La Pulga. Sadly, if we thought that the draw data was particularly helpful, the pace stats are even less useful today, I'm afraid, with no real clear pattern...

..and this is reflected in the pace/draw heat map...

So, when this happens, I tend to go back to the racecard and Instant Expert to help guide me.

Summary

It's not an exact science, but if I refer to Instant Expert and the place data and focus upon those with three blocks of green, I'm suddenly only looking at four runners...

...and all four fit the slight draw bias we mentioned earlier.

Matchless might well need a run after a 21-week break from racing and tackling a first non-NH race in ten months might test his fitness. It's also almost sixteen months since he last won on the level and he has yet to make the frame in seven A/W starts, so that's an easy decision to drop him from my list of possibles.

This leaves me with a trio in racecard order of True Courage, Lexington Knight and Night Breeze and I think true Courage is definitely the weaker of the three. I don't however see much between Lexington Knight and Night Breeze, but if pushed to stick my neck out, I'd probably go with Night Breeze who rarely runs a bad race.

A market check at 5.15pm Wednesday showed this...

...and with bookies paying four places, Lexington Knight and True Courage both fall into what I'd class as being "E/W backable"



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Racing Insights, Thursday 15/08/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.25 Salisbury
  • 2.45 Chepstow
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 5.30 Windsor
  • 8.40 Chelmsford

...from which I'm going to look at Race 23 of the 2024 Racing League aka the 5.30 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a mile around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

...featuring a quartet of LTO winners.

Great Acclaim won at Chepstow a week ago and has three wins and a place from his last five starts, Placeholder won at Wolverhampton 23 days ago and has won two of her three races to date, whilst Sunny Corner comes here on a hat-trick having won three and been a runner-up once in his last four starts. Bottom weight Zenzic got off the mark at the fourth time of asking when scoring at Yarmouth a week ago.

Starliner won six races ago, Rascal Recknell won three races ago, Candomore won four back and Post Rider has finished 1132 in her last four, but Bayadere is winless in her four outings.

Placeholder and Sunny Corner are both denoted as fast finishers and both step up a class here, as do handicap debutant Bayadere and Post Rider, whilst Zenzic is up two classes as he runs in a handicap for just the second time.

All nine bar Rascal Recknell have had at least one run in the last four weeks, but he now returns from a near 8-week break during which he was gelded. Starliner will wear blinkers for the first time today, whilst it's a debut in cheekpieces for Post Rider.

Starliner, Rascal Recknell and the maiden Bayadere are all yet to win over today's trip and sole track winner, Great Acclaim won over course and distance back in May at the start of his current five-race purple patch and this is reflected below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

We've a relatively inexperienced bunch under today's conditions, but I'm probably already against Bayadere on good to firm ground and Starliner over today's trip. The latter has also only won one of six at this grade and Rascal Recknell's record isn't much better, so whilst Instant Expert isn't necessarily pointing me towards a bet just yet, it was worth looking, because I've already been able to cross four of the nine runners off my list of contenders.

My next port of call is draw analysis, which tells us that those drawn in the three lowest stalls have fared best...

...supplying us with 46.25% and 38.43% of the placers from just 33.1% of the runners, which in isolation could be good news for Placeholder, Candonomore and Bayadere, whilst those drawn centrally (Starliner, Zenzic and Rascal Recknell) would appear to have the worst of the draw. That said, over a race as long as a mile with both left and right-handed turns, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here and at Windsor race positioning/tactics aka pace is often key and if we look at how those races above were won...

..it has certainly been a case of the further forward you can race, the better! This would appear to suit Post Rider most, if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

Summary

For me, the form horse Great Acclaim should be the one to beat here, but his tendency to run in mid-division may well cause him to lose this one, if front-running Post Rider is afforded an easy/soft lead. That said, Post Rider herself is no slouch and comes here in good nick and was only beaten by half a length last time out and she'd be my pick here in what looks like being a really tight contest.

Great Acclaim should still make the frame but will need to work hard to make up ground and if pushed for another runner to make the frame, I'd probably go with either Placeholder or Sunny Corner and it was no real surprise to see that bookies had these four runners at the head of the market at 3.45pm on Wednesday...

Zenzic could easily make the frame too, based on his LTO win and is almost at a backable price for E/W purposes, but i'm not interested in the bottom two of the market and unless I've read the race incorrectly, Bayadere seems way too short on handicap debut.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 08/08/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 6.15 Sandown
  • 6.30 Chepstow
  • 7.52 Leopardstown

...from which, I'm going to look at race 17 of this year's Racing League, the 6.30 Chepstow, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

This looks like a really open contest with only fast finishing Alpine Girl coming here off the back of a win. She scored at Salisbury almost four weeks ago and now seeks a hat-trick having also won at Lingfield in June. Ingra Tor, Muscika and Gis A Sub all had top 3 finishes last time out.

Dolly Gray, Connies Rose and Havana Rum have all won two of their last six outings and Gis A Sub was a winner two starts ago, but Gisburn, Ingra Tor, Eminency, Coup de Force and Muscika are on losing runs of 9, 12, 13 , 7 and 12 races respectively.

Gisburn does drop down a class here, though and Eminency is down two grades, so that might help their causes, but both Alpine Girl and Gis A Sub are up two classes here. Havana Rum is denoted as being a fast finisher and at just seven days since his last race, he's the quickest turned back out, but all ten have raced at least once in the last seven weeks.

All ten have also won at least once over today's trip, but only two have run/won here at Chepstow. Coup de Force is 1 from 1 here, having scored over 5f on just her second career start way back in June 2021, whilst Connies Rose is 5 from 18 at this venue comprising of 3 wins from 6 at 5f, 1 win from 4 at 7f and 1 win from 8 over this 6f course and distance. She has also made the frame in 6 of her 13 defeats here and her last four results here read 3213 and those are included in the 2-year form shown on Instant Expert below...

..and from a mediocre set of win figures, Connies Rose probably edges it and she's certainly one of the ones standing out on the place data too. Gis A Sub has had enough chances at class/trip already and I suspect another failure to make the frame here. From a win perspective alone, many of these have struggled to get home over today's trip, but with most  of them having decent place results, it might just be a poor race.

On the face of it, there doesn't appear to be a huge advantage from stall positioning...

...but closer inspection suggests that if you were given a choice, you'd take stalls 1 or 2...

..but a look at the pace/draw heat map leads me to believe that pace will be more key to the result here than the draw will...

...and our Pace Analyser backs this thought up...

So, we need to try to work out where the pace in the race might be and if we've got a front-runner drawn low or high, then they should be in the mix. We do this by looking back over the field's last few races...

...where the low-drawn Connies Rose is likely to lead the way.

Summary

This is a tricky contest to call, but Connies Rose is the course specialist and scored best on Instant Expert. She's got a low draw and will set the tempo of the race and I think if all goes to plan, she could at least nick a place from the front. Her results this year (282212314) suggest that she generally fails to hang on for the win, but seven places from nine says she could be an E/W option and at 14/1 with bet365 at 4.45pm on Wednesday, that looks very tempting indeed.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 25/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.45 Doncaster
  • 4.55 Sandown
  • 5.30 Yarmouth
  • 7.00 Yarmouth
  • 7.45 Newbury
  • 7.50 Leopardstown

...and the highest-rated of the five UK races above is Race 4 of the new season of the Racing League aka the 7.00 Yarmouth, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

My immediate thoughts were that this might well be a three-way battle between (in card order) Yantarni, Love Billy Boy and Pedro Valentino, but I don't want to dismiss any of these too soon, of course.

Love Billy Boy won last time out, as did Oliver Show who has won two of his three, a feat only bettered by Yantarni who has won each of his last three. Pedro Valentino has won two of his last five Exquisite Acclaim is two from six and Woodstock is two from seven.
Storm Star has raced just three times, but won on debut as did Ziggys Condor who is 0 from 5 since despite two really good runner-up finishes at York. Farhh To Shy, Holy Fire and How Impressive are on the cold list, though after 8, 11 and 7 respective consecutive defeats.

Farhh To Shy's cause may be helped by a drop down in class, as do Love Billy Boy and Ziggy's Condor, but Oliver Show, the cold Holy Fire and joint bottom weight Pedro Valentino all step up one class, whilst it's a two-step rise for in-form Yantarni.

The other joint bottom weight runner, Storm Star, runs in a handicap for just the second time, whilst Ziggy's Condor is now fitted with cheekpieces. Oliver Show hasn't been seen for 101 days since winning at Kempton (15th April), but the others have all had at least one run in the last six weeks.

Four of this field (Holy Fire, Love Billy Boy, Ziggy's Condor and Storm Star) have yet to win over today's trip, whilst Farhh To Shy is the only course and distance winner here, having won this race last year off a pound higher. That's great, of course, but she hasn't won since! How Impressive also won here last September, getting home by three quarters of a length over 6f off a mark 5lbs lower than today's. Both of these course wins can be seen on the 2 year win version of today's feature, Instant Expert...

...where the in-form Yantarni is probably the one that catches the eye first, especially over today's trip. There aren't too many areas for concern above, but Woodstock's 1 from 7 over 7f is a slight worry, but that win was just two starts ago plus he also won over this trip on the A/W at Wolverhampton back in April. You'll also notice below that Woodstock has made the frame in half of those six defeats, suggesting that he might be one to watch from an E/W perspective...

...and at this point (without ruling any out), I'm more interested in the runners emerging from stalls 1, 4, 5, 8 and 10. I'm not too concerned that they're spread across the range of the stalls, but I don't expect much advantage from the draw here, as shown from previous contests here...

...but a straight run on good to form ground here at Yarmouth always screams "early pace" to me and those 70-odd race above have certainly favoured those brave enough to try to win the race from the front...

...which opens the door slightly for the likes of Exquisite Acclaim and How Impressive, based on their recent efforts...

...although what I suspect will happen here is that they'll tow the nearby Pedro Valentino, Yantarni and Love Billy Boy in to the race and ultimately get swallowed up by them.

Summary

I started by suggesting that this might well be a three-way battle between (in card order) Yantarni, Love Billy Boy and Pedro Valentino and to be honest, I've not seen too much to shake/sway me from that, although Woodstock also became of interest during the process. I think Woodstock has a live (if slim) chance of making the frame, but I think he's going to need one of my trio to slip up to do so. That said at 20/1 with Betfair/PP, I wouldn't you off a small E/W bet, although I'd take the 18/1 and 4 places from Sky, if you're going to back him.

Now back to my chosen trio and based on the above, I'm going with the 9/2 Pedro Valentino to hold off the 4/1 Yantarni and Love Billy Boy, who is bordering on E/W territory at 15/2.

Odds quoted as of 5.15pm Wednesday.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 18/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.40 Chepstow
  • 4.45 Leopardstown
  • 4.55 Hamilton
  • 6.30 Epsom
  • 7.42 Killarney
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...where the 'best' (highest rated, anyway!) of the three UK races looks like being the 6.30 Epsom, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f (+33yds after rail movements) on good to soft ground...

Blenheim Star was the only one of this field to have won their last race and she has won three of her last four, making her the clear form horse here. Uncle Dick was a runner-up nine days, having won his previous race and Hello Cotai was also a runner-up a week ago and has made the frame in four of his last five, but the fact remains that he's a nine-race maiden.

Charlie Mason was third on his last outing and did win four starts ago, but aside from the two maidens Hello Cotai (9 attempts) and Seamore (three attempts), only Roundabout has struggled to win of late, going down on eight successive occasions since a win at Bath at the end of last August.

Half of the field are moving class here with three (Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star & Hello Cotai) stepping up a level whilst top weight Shot of Love drops down from Class 4. Seamore makes a handicap debut some ten weeks after the last of three fairly nondescript efforts in Novice company and I should point out that five of this field are only 3 yrs old, meaning they get a 9lb allowance that Shot Of Love (4yo), Uncle Dick (6yo) and Roundabout Silver (5yo) don't benefit from.

We've not much to report in the way of course/distance successes, but Unreal Connection's sole career win from eight starts came here at Epsom over 7f eleven months and six starts ago, whilst Uncle Dick was winner over 1m½f at Wolverhampton way back in January 2021. All of this means that Shot of Love's last Flat win (10 months ago) is the only time any of this field have won over course and distance.

The positives from Instant Expert are that Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star have excellent records over this kind of trip winning a collective 9 of 14 (64.3%) races on the Flat, but conversely Roundabout Silver's 0 from 7 at Class 5 isn't something to write home about...

...and although he has a reasonable place record at the going/track/trip, he has only made the frame once in those seven defeats at this level...

Elsewhere Hello Cotai's recent run of near misses raises his profile as a potential placer, but I still think this might be between those who excel at the trip ie Uncle Dick and Blenheim Star, who will race from stalls 3 and 6 over a track and trip that (to me at least) doesn't seem to offer any discernible draw bias, other than that those drawn lowest have an inferior place record, despite winning their fair share of races...

...and I suspect that it'll be race tactics and race positioning aka pace that determines the outcome here, as the best way of winning here is to set the tempo from the front.

...and the advice is that if you can't set the pace, you might as conserve energy at the back of the field and then come with a late run, taking advantage of those who've blown themselves out getting up the hill. Based on recent outings, Shot of Love is likely to be the pacemaker today, with the likes of Uncle Dick, Blenheim Star and Charlie Mason the ones coming with a late run.

Summary

It has been Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick getting the mentions throughout my summary. Both are in good form, of course, but Blenheim Star is in the better form and benefits from that 9lbs age allowance, so I'd take Blenheim Star to beat Uncle Dick here. As for the other placer, Hello Cotai has made the frame in four of his last five and he could easily makes that five from six here.

I'd no odds to quote at 4pm Wednesday, but I wouldn't be too surprised in the top three in the market are my 1-2-3 and I suspect that none will be E/W backable, but if you wanted an E/W play, then Charlie Mason might be best positioned to edge one of my three out as he's likely to come late with Blenheim Star and Uncle Dick, who might just tow him into contention.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 11/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Carlisle
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Doncaster
  • 6.25 Newbury
  • 8.30 Leopardstown

...the best of which has to be the 3.35 Newmarket aka the Prince of Wales' Stakes, a 6-runner, Group 2 flat race over a right-handed 1m4f on what looks like being good to soft / soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this should be Hamish's race to win/lose with (in card order) Giavelotto and Arrest the best of the rest and most likely to challenge, but let's see...

GIAVELLOTTO was last seen eight weeks ago winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup at York for the second year running. He carries a 3lb penalty for that win, but does drop back 2f in trip. He has won three of his last seven races, has a career place strike rate of 75% (9 from 12) and was a winner here over 1m6f back in August 2022 in what was his last handicap run.

OUTBOX is one of three Frankel offspring in this race along with Arrest and Time Lock and is a confirmed front-runner, as demonstrated when he won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes on the Rowley track here at HQ on his last UK run (3rd May) beating the re-opposing Time Lock by 2½ lengths) to end a run of 14 consecutive UK defeats. Has finished 9th of 10 and last of 7 in two runs in Europe since and could well struggle here.

ARREST has won four of ten starts, making the frame is half of his six defeats, including two runner-up finishes in his three runs (one of which was the 2023 St Leger!) since winning the Gr 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last August. He also won the Gr 3 Chester Vase in May '23 and ran a decent race at Chester again last time out.

HAMISH won the Gr3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester just over two years ago and since then has finished in the first two home in nine successive races, winning six times taking his last ten finishes to read 1212111112 culminating in a one length defeat in the Gr 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, when probably given too much to do late on. I can't seen him not finishing in the first two here yet again.

MAXI KING is probably way out of his depth here if truth be told. His best result to date is a Class 2 handicap win over this trip on the Rowley Mile in May but was only 11th of 16 in another Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out.

TIME LOCK won a Listed race at Craon in France last September before going on to land the Group 3 Princess Royal Stakes on the Rowley Mile here last September and was also a 2½ length runner-up behind Giavellotto in the Jockey Club Stakes on her return from over six months off the track. She disappointed in the Coronation Cup last time out, when last home of five, beaten by the best part of 24 lengths and 23 lengths behind Hamish, so she has plenty to find here based on that result. The going is also against her here, as her two wins in the UK came on Good to Firm ground.

Instant Expert also puts a tick next to Hamish's name based purely on win stats under today's expected conditions...

...with Arrest probably next in line, although Giavellotto's place figures would appear to be better than Arrest's and the chances are that these are both vying for second place if truth be told...

...and Outbox looks hard to back/recommend!

As you'd expect, there's not a huge draw bias over a trip of a mile and a half in a small field, but if there is anything to be gained, then the lower half of the draw has prevailed most often, not withstanding a freakish result for stall 5, which might give more hope to followers of Giavellotto...

If a horse does want to gain an advantage, there is a way and that's by dictating the pace of the race from the front as leaders here have done far better in those races above from both a win and place perspective, than the other three running styles...

...which might just give Outbox a chance of competing if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

So, Outbox is drawn low and has the ideal pace profile here in a race that lacks other genuine front-runners, but he's in poor form right now and I can't see Ryan Moore (on Time Lock) letting him get as far clear as he did in the Jockey Club Stakes in May, especially as Time Lock is 3lbs better off here. What I suspect will happen is that Outbox will be sent out to win from the front the other five will race together and slowly reel him in.

Summary

I still can't see Hamish getting beaten here and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing shorties, his current (5pm Wednesday) price of 10/11 might even represent some value, as he has been sent off shorter than that in three of his last six Group 3 contests. So I suppose, it's just a case of ho comes second and that's still down to Giavelotto / Arrest for me. There's not much to choose between them, if truth be told, but Giavelotto has a better place record than Arrest and his 6/1 ticket offers more value than the latter's 7/2 and could well be an E/W option at 1/4 odds.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 04/07/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 5.10 Tipperary
  • 5.40 Tipperary
  • 5.50 Kempton
  • 6.45 Newbury

None of those make much appeal to me if truth be told, so I'm going off-piste with a look at the highest-rated handicap of the day in the UK, the 7.35 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse between Cracksking and The Goat at fairly short prices, leaving the way open for an E/W bet or two, but let's check...

Only Cracksking won last time out and this son of Frankel is 2 from 4 (3211) on the All-Weather. He beat the re-opposing The Goat by a neck in that race (here over course and distance), whilst Simply Sondheim and Ludos Landing were also runners-up on their last outings.

Way of Life has made the frame in 11 of his last 14, but has failed to win any of his last 22 races, whilst Global Heat, There's The Door and Naval Commander are on losing streaks of 14, 7 and 8 races respectively.

There's The Door does have the benefit of a drop in class here, though, as do Simply Sondheim and Graignes, but the bottom four in the weights, Way of Life, Naval Commander, Met Office and Ludos Landing all step up in class, so it's hard to envisage either of Way of Life or Naval Commander getting back to winning ways here.

Gooloogong runs in a handicap for just the second time (last of eight over course and distance behind Cracksking & The Goat as above LTO four weeks ago), whilst bothNaval Commander and Simply Sondheim make yard debuts on their return from lengthy layoffs of 364 days and 292 days respectively. Both Met Office (232d) and Graignes (241d) might also be in need of the run, but the other seven runners here have raced in the last 8-40 days.

All bar There's The Door have had at least one run here at Kempton, but only Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, Graignes and Naval Commander have won here with all bar Naval Commander and Ludos Landing having tackled today's trip. Cracksking, The Goat, Way of Life and Met Office have all won over 1m4f, but only Cracksking has won at track and trip, when triumphant here four weeks ago.

Based on this preview, it's no surprise that Cracksking is the standout in terms of wins on our free daily feature Instant Expert...

...with Simply Sondheim and Graignes also having gone well, but they are both returning from long breaks. From a place perspective, my shortlist would have to be Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life and these runners occupy stalls 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias to take advantage of, that it benefits those drawn lowest...

...and that does appear to be the case, albeit marginally. I suspect the pace might well tell us a bit more about who might challenge here. I've got it in my head that even though the trip is a mile and a half that those setting the pace or keeping up with it have fared the best, but as ever, its always best to check the data...

Well, I'm sort of right, I suppose. the advantage seems more pronounced from a place perspective, of course, but one this is apparent : you don't want to dwell and be left behind here. So, I suppose that if one or more of my low-drawn Instant Expert shortlist are runners who like to get on with things, we might have ourselves a live E/W chance at worst, so let's look at their last few races...

...with four of my shortlisted quintet filling the first five berths on the pace chart, making the resultant pace/draw heat map look like this...

Summary

Based on our free feature of the day, Instant Expert and the pace/draw data, I'm inclined to stick with Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life as the five runners to choose from and with Simply Sondheim and Graignes likely to need a run after a lengthy lay-off, I'm left with the two that I though would battle it out for the win, Cracksking and The Goat plus perennial placer but rare winner Way of Life and I'll take them in that order.

The one I did like earlier but doesn't seem to tick any boxes is bottom weight Ludo's Landing. He's in great form, receives weight all round and could well spring a surprise. The Wednesday 5.30pm market looked like this...

...so there could be an E/W bet or two in the offing, if you're that way inclined.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 27/06/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.00 Newcastle
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 4.30 Newmarket
  • 9.00 Leicester

...from which we're off to the July course at HQ for the 4.30 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3 , 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

...a field where all bar Ararat have raced in the last four weeks. He returns from a nine-month absence but is the only LTO winner in this race. Elsewhere Mitrosonfire was a recent runner-up and both Benacre and Darkness made the frame on their last outings. The field are, however, a little shy of wins in their recent form lines as only Havana Blue (2 from 6), Persuasion, Ararat (2 from 4) and Lord Rapscallion have managed to win any of their last seven races.

Mitrosonfire, Able Kane and Waiting All Night might struggle to end their losing runs as they now step up a class here, as do LTO winner Ararat and bottom weight Lord Rapscallion, but Persuasion drops down a level.

Waiting All Night is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip, as his sole win in 18 races to date was over 5f at Wolverhampton and he's 0 from 14 on turf but Darkness has won over a mile here at Newmarket, whilst Havana Blue, Ararat, Mitrosonfire and Able Kane are all former course and distance winners.

Instant Expert shows us quite clearly how difficult this field has found it to win over the last two years...

...with the returning Ararat probably the pick of the pack. I'm hoping that the place stats suggest that some of these have been unlucky, because I'm already getting question marks about Toimy Son (trip), Persuasion (class. track and trip), Mitrosonfire (trip), Darkness (going, class and trip), Able Kane (class & trip), Waiting All Night (trip) and Lord Rapscallion (Generally!); it might have been easier to say who I didn't have too many concerns about.

We'd better check those place stats!

...and they certainly show a few of these in a different light, especially Persuasion and Darkness. Their win stats make them hard to back outright, but they're certainly to strangers to making the frame. Benacre loves the trip and has placed here too, so these three could be a second look later along with Ararat (from the win stats) and maybe Havana Blue.

Benacre was a Listed class runner-up, beaten by just three quarters of a length over this trip on the Rowley track here last summer and that should stand him in good stead today as he lines up closest to the rail, now that Arabian Storm (who had been drawn in stall 1) has been withdrawn. That said, I don't think there's much to be gained from stalls position here today

...although those drawn higher have made the frame slightly more often, but there's really not a great deal in it and I suspect that much more will depend on race tactics, because the pace stats for those near-150 races above tells a pretty clear story...

...that being up with the pace is key here from both a win and place perspective. Leaders make up approximately 13.3% of the runners in those races, but have accounted for 28.5% of the winners, which speaks for itself and this looks like more good news for Ararat, Benacre and Darkness if their last few runs are anything to go by...

Summary

The above stats say that pace wins the race here over 7f and alphabetically Ararat, Benacre and Darkness are the three most likely to set the tempo of this contest. Ararat was the sole standout on the win side of our daily feature, Instant Expert, whilst Benacre and Darkness both had good place records, so I think that they're going to be my three against the field.

It's a bit of a gamble that Ararat will be race-sharp after nine months off, but if pushed to pick a winner, it'd be him and Hills were offering 7/1 at 4.15pm on Wednesday, which is bordering on E/W territory, never mind a win bet! Darkness and Benacre were trading at 11/2 and 6/12 respectively, so neither would take my fancy as an E/W bet, but I expect both to give a good account of themselves.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 20/06/24

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Apologies for the lack of a post for Wednesday's racing, I was up in the Troodos mountains all day/evening with no signal. There'll also be no column for Friday's racing, as I'll be making my way back home from Cyprus on Thursday.

As for Thursday's racing, did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.45 Ascot
  • 4.10 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.50 Leopardstown

Obviously the Ribblesdale at Ascot is the ‘best’ race on that list, but there are others here on Geegeez better qualified to assess a race of such magnitude (and I’m sure they already have or are about to!), so I’ll switch my focus to Essex, where there’s a reasonable-looking (on paper, at least) handicap in the shape of the 4.10 Chelmsford, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack …

We have two LTO winners in this field today, Wadacre Gomez who has won 4 of his last 8 on the A/W and Sniper’s Eye, who is actually up two classes for just his second handicap appearance and wears a hood for the first time upon his comeback from a lengthy (266 days) absence. Stay Well was the only other runner to make the frame on their last run, but he’s also the only runner in this race without a win in six, having been beaten in fourteen straight contests since his last win in October 2021.

In addition to the Sniper’s Eye, bottom-weight and sole female Roxanne is our only other class riser as she steps up one class and also sports a hood for the first time, whilst top-weight Enfjaar is our only class dropper, down one level from Class 2. He has, however, not raced for 229 days and has been gelded during his layoff. Like Sniper’s Eye, Tarjeeh also makes just a second handicap run.

We’re a bit shy on course/distance success here, but both Wadacre Gomez and Zealot are former course and distance winners, whilst Enfjaar won here over a mile thirteen months ago, interestingly after another long (236 days) absence, so the break might not rule him out today. Stay Well has also won over today’s trip, albeit on quick ground at Windsor, way back in April 2021.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have performed under similar conditions over 2yrs, 5yrs or all-time and this is the 2-year snapshot…

...where Zealot and Wadacre Gomez have clearly had the most recent success even if Zealot has struggled over the last year, losing five on the bounce since winning seven of eight races in a four month period from December 2022 to March 2023. That raised his mark from 59 to 99, but he's now running off 84, some 12lbs below his last win, which could make him dangerous. As for Wadacre Gomez, he has four wins and a place from five efforts over course and distance and is only up 2lbs from his win here two weeks ago. Enfjaar probably shades the role of third best on those numbers above.

Quite a few of those have swathes of red next to their name, especially Diamond Ranger who looks the most vulnerable of the eight, but maybe he has just been unlucky not to win. The place stats will tell us quickly enough...

...and they suggest that he's not as bad as his win record would suggest, but that he's clearly not at this best at Class 3 and/or over 1m2f. Stay Well's place stats are also poor and I think I'd rule these two out here. Top of our speed ratings, Roxanne, is unexposed under these condition and could be a dark horse.

Course and distance specialist Wadacre Gomez is drawn widet of all here, out in stall 8, but I don't think that will make or break his race, as there's no huge draw bias over 1m2f here at Chelmsford in 8-runner contests, if truth be told...

Stalls 3 to 5 may have a slight edge in terms of wins and those in 4 & 5 have clearly better place returns and whilst this is encouraging news for the likes of Tarjeeh, Sniper's Eye and Diamond Ranger, they are among the weaker runners here and might need all the help we can get.

Pace, however, is generally a different kettle of fish here at Chelmsford and regular readers of this column and/or users of our pace stats won't be surprised to learn that the further forward you race, the greater the chance of a win or place! (not the best poetry you'll ever read, but it's true!)...

So, where is the pace going to come from? Well, we don't know for sure, but by looking at the field's recent runs, we can usually make an informed guess...

There's a possibility that this might be a falsely run affair, which would play into the hands (hooves) of Wadacre Gomez on his favoured track/trip, but then again he also has the highest average pace score. Zealot was looking like an E/W possible, but having to come from the back is never easy here and that might be an issue and I think this opens the door for Enfjaar and Roxanne.

Summary

Pace wins the race they say in Chelmsford and with Wadacre Gomez heading the averages above alongside his excellent course and distance record, I'm not sure a 2lb rise here will stop him from going in again and this is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite with Bet365 (only book open at 3.45pm Wednesday) I was hoping he'd be more like 10/3 for this, but either way he's the one I think should win here.

I did like Zealot as an E/W option, but the pace might count against him. That said, if it's a falsely run race that might well suit him, as he's used to doing all his best work late on. Enfjaar was third best on Instant Expert and was handily placed in the pace profiler, as was the filly Roxanne who was a one-length runner-up over course and distance two months ago and should go well again here.

Enfjaar currently trades at 9/2, which again is a little shorter than I expected and too short for an E/W bet, but from that angle 16/1 might be generous about Zealot and/or Roxanne if things fall their way.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 06/06/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 5.10 Haydock
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 6.45 Chelmsford
  • 8.00 Leopardstown

Now, as most of you know, I don't really do Irish racing and that leaves me with a pair of uninspiring Class 5 UK races above, so I'm swerving those to look at whatever the highest-rated race might be in the UK instead.

And that appears to be the 3.25 Hamilton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out, although Kelpie Grey was a runner-up after three straight wins and four wins from five.

This initially looks a pretty open contest, yet aside from the horses named above only Persuasion made the frame last time out, but only Monsieur Kodi and Manila Scouse are winless in seven or more (7 & 10 respectively).

Only five of these (Roman Drago, Paws for Thought, Dare to Hope, Monsieur Kodi & Manila Scouse) actually raced at Class 2 on their last outing, as Glenfinnan, Raatea, Persuasion and Almarada Prince all step up from Class 3 whilst Kelpie Grey and Illusionist were both last seen at Class 4.

Paws for Thought, Illusionist and Manila will have their usual respective cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue tie in place today and Paws For Thought's jockey claims 7lbs whilst Almarada Prince will be ridden by a 5lb claimer in addition to him receiving an 8lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old. The whole field have raced in the last 12 to 39 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here today.

Persuasion , Kelpie Grey and Manila Scouse have yet to win over this trip, whilst Paws for Thought and Illusionist have scored here over course and distance. Almarada Prince has also won here at Hamilton, albeit over 5f as the middle win in a hat-trick last Autumn.

When it comes to looking at out feature of the day, Instant Expert, I've also included the stats from Class 3, as none of this field has particularly shone in this grade...

...so I wouldn't necessarily use Class 2 form as my immediate way of weeding runners out! From the above, the lightweight Almarada Prince and Glenfinnan are the obvious eyecatchers with Paws for Thought and Roman Dragon also hitting two blocks of green, although the latter is now 8lbs above his last winning mark and might well be in the assessor's grip.

I think we should look at the place form too, in case any of these have been unlucky not to win, especially at Class 2...

Sadly, that's not the case today, the while Class 2 form is pretty abject, so I think we should treat this as a Class 3 contest after all! Persuasion is a regular placer at that level and Almarada Prince continues to tick boxes albeit off a very small sample size, whereas Dare to Hope and Monsieur Kodi have a combined 14 places from 26 starts over 6f, which is excellent. Illusionist looks the weak link right now, though.

As you'd expect over a straight 6f on good ground, the draw stats are fairly inconclusive, but this the data we have...

I'm a great believer in the value of assessing the draw in shorter distance races, but I am cautious about over-reliance in these straight sprints, where aside from stall 1 having the rail to guide the horse and keep it straight, there shouldn't really be an advantage and it's invariably race tactics aka pace that matter more. Thankfully we have that data too! Here's how those races were won...

...unsurprisingly favouring front-runners as often tends to be case in sprints, which could be really good news for Kelpie Grey, if this field's last four races are anything to go by...

Summary

The names that crop up most during my analysis are (in card order) top weights Roman Dragon and Glenfinnan along with the two runners to be ridden by claimers, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince.

If I was to use this quartet as my shortlist, then I'd be inclined to suggest that the in-form Glenfinnan would be the most likely to win and that's probably why Hills have him as the early (4.10pm Wednesday) favourite at 4/1, which is probably where I thought he'd be priced.

The other three (Roman Dragon, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince) are all more than capable of making the frame, as are no doubt three or four others, but at respective odds of 13/2, 8/1 and 16/1, there might be some E/W joy to be had!

Please Note : I'm off to Cyprus for a fortnight tomorrow (Thursday), so there'll be no column for Friday's racing. It's a work trip (looking at some hotels), so I'll still be writing the daily column when possible, although the timings of publication may well vary from day to day.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 30/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.00 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Ripon
  • 5.25 Ripon
  • 5.30 Fairyhouse
  • 6.47 Limerick

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 4.20 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Bottom-weight Ey Up It's The Boss is not only our sole LTO winner (or even placer for that matter) in the pack, having scored here over track over trip 11 days ago, but also our sole class riser, as he steps up two classes today, Conversely, the top three in the weights are all down in class, with Bennetot and Loyal Touch down from Class 2, whilst Zarabanda was last home of eight in a Listed race, as she has been for three races on the trot!

None of our seven LTO losers even made the frame, but all bar Bennetot, Bodorgan and Titian have won at least one of their last six outings. Rogue Sea is the only runner in this field without a run in the last six weeks and he now races for the first time since mid-September 2023, having moved yards to bryan Smart and undergone a gelding operation during his layoff.

Bennetot and Bodorgan have yet to win at a similar trip, but Zarabanda, Baryshnikov, Cockalorum and Ey Up It's The Boss have all won over course and distance whilst Rogue Sea's last win (51 weeks ago) was over 1m3f on this course and it's two of our course and distance winners that initially catch the eye on our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Baryshnikov's poor return at going, class and trip have already put me off backing him and Zarabanda is only let down by a lack of wins at this trip (her best results have been at 1m/1m½f), but her soft credentials are the best here with Cockalorum also faring well. From a place perspective, we still seem to be looking at the same horse, drawn in stalls 3 to 7...

....but our draw analyser would suggest those drawn 1 to 5 would be the ones to beat, particularly from a place perspective...

...so that could be especially good for three of our course and distance winners, Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda.

If we then run those 20-odd races (I know it's a smaller than preferred sample size) through our pace analyser, we find that the wins have been spread fairly equally around the four possible running styles, but from a percentage point of view, you really want to be backing leaders/front-runners here and even more so if if you're angling towards an E/W pick...

That 63.64% place strike rate is quite telling here, so if Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and/or Zarabanda are front-runners, then they look like good bets to make the frame at the very least, so let's check the field's pace profile...

...and it looks like the pace is going to come from the lower end of the draw with Loyal Touch and Cockalorum the most likely front-runners here.

Summary

Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda are all course and distance winners and all scored well on both Instant Expert and draw, but when it came to pace profiling Cockalorum was the standout of the three and he's got to be good for a place here as he steps down in trip.

Only Hills had opened a book at 2.25pm Wednesday and they were sadly only offering 6/1 about Cockalorum, which is a bit short for E/W betting for me, but don't let me put you off if those odds are acceptable. Loyal Touch was the early 10/3 favourite and his low drawn front-running could well propel him to a place too, but I think the price is a bit mean based on his Instant Expert scores and an indifferent effort last time out.

If Cockalorum drifts, then I'd definitely put him up as an E/W option, but on the other hand Zarabanda looks a bit long as the 11/1 outsider, as she seems to tick plenty of boxes here apart from pace, but there's a chance she gets towed along by the two front0runners inside her and the pace/draw heat map for this race suggests her centrally drawn mid-division running style might not be disastrous either...

...so Zarabanda at 11/1 E/W is the option that currently interests me most with Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and market leader Loyal Touch all hoping to be in the mix.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 23/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.58 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Catterick
  • 6.25 Limerick
  • 6.55 Limerick
  • 7.37 Sandown

...but I think I'll ignore for various reasons (never bet on races that don't appeal) and look at whatever might be the day's highest-rated/most-valuable handicap. That actually turns out to be the 8.42 Sandown, a 12-runner, Class 3 (£9020 to the winner), 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Crack Shot and Hiromichi both won last time and they have both won three of their last six outings, whilst Navagio, Regheeb and Dragon Icon have all won twice in six or less. Excel Power is the only one without a win in seven starts, having suffered ten defeats on the bounce.

Three of the top four in the weights (Alzahir, Navagio and Dual Identity) drop in class here, as does bottom-weight Magic Memories who runs for the first time since the Moores changed the licence naming.

Classic might well need a run here today, as at 268 days since his last run, he's the only one without a run since the start of April, but he is one of just previous course winners, having won here over 7f last July. Dual Identity won a 1m2f handicap at a higher level here last September.

This pair of course winners are, however, amongst five (Alzahir, Regheeb & Al Rufaa being the others) yet to win over today's trip...

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, doesn't have masses of past relevant runs for this field, but does suggest that Classic, Crack Shot and Hiromichi might be best suited to the conditions. That said, there are few alarm bells ringing here, other than maybe Dual Identity's failure to win at the going and trip and Navagio's UK mark being much higher than his last win over in Ireland. If we then consider the place stats from those races above, it becomes more apparent about Dual Identity's dislike of this trip...

...which is unfortunate, because the other columns show he has ability, He's better at 1m2f where he has four wins and five further places from just thirteen starts, but it seems a mile is just on the sharp side for him. At this point, I'd probably remove a few of these from my calculations and just take the following runners forward...

I've arranged them in draw order, as I'm now going to see if any of them might be handed any kind of advantage from their stalls position, but our draw analyser says there's not a great deal in it, although those in stalls 5 and above have done slightly better for themselves...

Our pace analyser also says there's not a great deal in it pace-wise too, but that hold-up horses have fared worst of all...

...and that the optimum pace/draw combinations would be low-drawn runners in mid-division or leaders drawn centrally with high-drawn leaders also doing well...

We already know the draw, but from a pace perspective, here's how the field have approached their most recent races...

...and if they go that way today, then Crack Shot fulfils the role of low-drawn mid-division runner and Regheeb would be the high drawn leader.

Summary

For me, the best two horses in this race are Crack Shot and Hiromichi. Both are in good form, both won last time out, both scored well on Instant Expert. Hiromichi appears to be better drawn, but Crack Shot seems to have the better pace/draw make-up and just about shades it for me.

Crack Shot is the current (5pm Wednesday) 7/2 favourite with Bet365 and whilst I think he might just prevail, I must say there's not a great deal of value in those odds and a 9/1 E/W bet about Hiromichi might be a more viable option.

Regheeb also looked good on the pace/draw heatmap and this unexposed 4 yr old was only a length behind Hiromichi last time out, despite not having raced for over five months. He's entitled to come on for that run and he's 2lbs better off today, so he could push Hiromichi again today, making him also of E/W interest at 11/1, especially with most firms paying four places.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 16/05/24

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.20 Perth
  • 3.05 Limerick
  • 3.15 York
  • 3.30 Salisbury
  • 8.00 Clonmel

...but I'm going to leave those alone and have a look at the highest-rated handicap on the Salisbury card, the 2.30 Salisbury. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on soft ground...

Rathgar is the sole LTO winner on display here (Pawapuri did win her last two on the Flat but has been hurdling lately and was 6th LTO), but Circuit Breaker, Torcello, Duke of Verona and Ellerton all finished third on their last starts. Hurtle Wallop is a three-race maiden but all his rivals bar top-weight Alright Sunshine and Ellerton have at least one win in six; the former is winless in nine and had refused to race in his last two, whilst the latter is on a seven-race losing streak.

Only a third of this field (Alright Sunshine, The Goat, Torcello & Duke of Verona) raced at Class 3 last time around, as Circuit Breaker (on yard debut here), Kyle of Lochalsh and Pawapuri (second handicap start today) all drop from Class 2, whilst LTO winner Rathgar joins Ocean Heights, Ellerton (also on hcp debut today) and bottom-weight Military Tycoon is stepping up from Class 4. Handicap debutant and three-race maiden steps up two classes here, which is interesting if nothing else.

Most of these have had a run in the last two months and Ocean heights should be OK after 75 days rest, as should Pawapuri but at 223 days off since last refusing to run, Alright Sunshine is a negative here. He is, however, one of just five runners along with Kyle of Lochalsh, Rathgar, Duke of Verona and Military Tycoon to have won over this trip and the latter is our sole course and distance winner. Torcello has also won here previously, landing a 1m2f maiden on his only previous visit. That was just his third career start, some 52 races ago back in July 2017 and his more recent relevant form looks (courtesy of Instant Expert) like this...

...where on a fairly sparse looking graphic, it appears that he might relish the conditions. There are3 clearly more negatives than positives above and my main worries from this set of data are the win percentage over this trip for Alright Sunshine, the +15lb for Kyle of Lochalsh from his last Flat win, although he is only 6lbs than his A/W win two starts ago and Duke Of Verona could have done better at Class 3. The place stats say that he only made the frame in one of those five defeats too...

...but Circuit Breaker now enters the party, as does Rathgar to a lesser extent.

Unusually for a race beyond a mile and a half, there does appear to be a slight advantage from the draw with those drawn lower appearing to fare best...

...but I'd tread carefully here. The draw really shouldn't be a massive factor here and the sample size is very small, but the numbers are what the numbers are. It's a little difference with pace, as race tactics are important at all distances and that small number of races above have suited front-runners best of all...

...so if we can find a low-ish drawn front-runner, we might well be onto something. We already know the draw, so if I arrange the field in draw order and show you how they've approached their most recent races...

...we should probably focus on The Goat, Circuit Breaker, Torcello and Pawapuri. Ocean heights and Ellerton are probably hoping to set the pace but they're coming from wide and the former is on turf debut and the latter on UK debut.

Summary

It pains me to end up highlighting a favourite, but I think I like the 11/4 Pawapuri here, although not enough to back her. Those odds are a little short for a horse who hasn't raced on the Flat since landing a Class 5 maiden at Yarmouth in September 2022, even if she did win a heavy ground Listed hurdle at Christmas. So whilst I think Pawapuri might be the best horse on paper, I'm inclined to lean towards Circuit Breaker who comes here in decent form, scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and will be up with the pace.

Circuit Breaker was priced up at 5/1 just after 5pm on Wednesday, which I think is very fair and offers more value than Pawapuri. As for the other two who'll be racing in advanced positions, I'm not over keen on The Goat who has been disappointing for a few runs now, but Torcello might well roll the years back and outrun his 12/1 ticket on his ay to a top four finish as my E/W pick. One other of interest who might come from off the pace is LTO winner Rathgar, who is in good nick and drawn well. He has Pawapuri immediately next door and might well get a tow into the race. If that does happen then 8/1 E/W might begin to look generous.



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