Posts

Racing Insights, 21st October 2021

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races, which are set to be...

  • 2.40 Ludlow
  • 3.40 Carlisle
  • 4.15 Carlisle
  • 5.20 Carlisle

And we'll head up North for the first of our three free Cumbrian contests, a competitive-looking stayers race. That's the 3.40 Carlisle on your racecards, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W purposes),  Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f on good ground that will be firmer in places...

On recent results alone, you'd probably want to be with the likes of Speak of the Devil (the only LTO winner here) and the consistent Oscar Montel as opposed to the likes of Lough Derg Farmer and Louis' Vac Pouch.

Re: class moves, Event of Sivola drops in class here from a runner-up finish last time out, but Speak of the Devil, Generator City and Lough Derg Farmer are all up in class, although the latter is one of two former course winners along with Mance Rayder, who like Present Chief has also won at today's trip.

Oscar Montel, Present Chief, Louis' Vac Pouch and Generator City have all raced in the last four weeks, but Mance Raider has been away for just over three months. Rustier still might be Speak of the Devil (20 weeks), Lough Derg Farmer (25 weeks) and Event of Sivola (30 weeks).

With regards to trainer/jockey form, then the first two on the card, Oscar Montel & Present Chief looks like the ones to be with. The assessor rates the former to be 18lbs worse than top weight Oscar Montel, but our SR figures disagree and Event sits second behind clear leader Speak of the Devil.

I'm not going to make any predictions/eliminations just yet, but it's already looking hard to like Louis' Vac Pouch and/or Lough Derg Farmer, but let's take a closer look at the field, starting with the top-weight...

...Oscar Montel, who is more likeable than his 2 in 20 career record would suggest, although he has been placed ten times. A win and three places (023126) from six over fences and seven top 3 finishes in his eight starts (hurdles & chases) this year say he's now hitting some consistent form, although just one win might imply that he's one for the place shortlist as opposed to actually winning.

Present Chief is another who I think could go well, based on the promise shown on chase debut four weeks ago, defying a 155 day absence to finish third, less than a length and a half off the winner. Up in trip here, but gets on well with his jockey and has won at 3m1½f over hurdles.

Mance Rayder has produced his best form on good ground and has a win and a place from five visits to Carlisle and stays as far as 3m6½f! Sadly, I think a mark of 121 is still beyond him after wins off 100 and 117 inside 7 weeks in the spring and was beaten by some 30 lengths off just 2lbs higher than today on his last run.

Louis Vac Pouch has won 2 of his 19 efforts over fences, but comes here on the back of 17 straight defeats in which he has made the frame the same number of times (2) as he has fallen. A former 141-rated chaser now runs off a lowly 116 here, but don't get your hopes up on that score, he was beaten by 50 lengths as last of eight when last seen at Market Rasen four weeks ago. Avoid.

Speak Of The Devil has been running consistently well for a while, making the frame in 6 of 13 over fences including a couple of wins, the recent being an 8 length success at Hexham last time out, for which he is raised 6lbs. That was almost 20 weeks ago, however and a little rustiness combined with the weight rise on top of some sketchy jumping in his past races means this might be his toughest test to date, but he's decent on his day.

Generator City is one of those frustrating nearly/not-quite horses that always threaten to be in the mix but invariably end up on the periphery of the action. This is backed up just 1 win from 6 over fences and a win and two places from ten over hurdles. He has only raced six times in the last two years, so things might not have been quite right with him either. he has just missed out on the places in his last two starts finishing 3rd of 7 twice and I'd not be surprised if he finished 4th or 5th of 8 here and just miss out again.

Lough Derg Farmer is just 1 from 16 over fences, but that win in Feb '19 was here at Carlisle in another Class 3 handicap over a similar (3m½f) trip off 13lbs higher than today, but again that's not really a cause for celebration, having been pulled up, last of 7 and 7th of 9 in his last three runs. Hasn't been seen for over five months and would likely need the run or a decent head start!

Event of Sivola might be a dark horse lurking at the foot of the weights having made the frame in seven of thirteen over fences and has finished 322F152 in seven starts over the last year. He's down 1lb and one class from a runner-up finish here at Carlisle over 3m1f last time out and although beaten by nearly ten lengths, he was 14L clear of third and 25L clear of fourth in a Class 2 event. The third, Exit To Where, went on to win at Ayr next time out, but Event went back to the shed for 207 days and will probably need the run. He could go well here, but he's more likely to go better next time out.

Feature of the Day is, of course, the Instant Expert tab, so let's take a look at that...

The traffic light system is fairly self-explanatory, the top five have fared best on good ground, we've little success at Class 3 (hopefully some will have placed, we'll see shortly), a couple of course winners and a couple of distance wins. There's not a lot in there if I'm honest, but I'd be avoiding the bottom three if this was my only price of data to go off.

Fortunately, that's never the case here at Geegeez, so we should consider place form, because all winners are placers...

...and Generator City/Lough Derg Farmer continue to look weak. Event of Sivola remains in contention for a place thanks to course/distance form and Louis' Vac Pouch's number suggest win or bust with him: I'm expecting bust here!

I've considered the possible pace make-up of the race and there aren't too many races like this to look back upon, so rather than stick with the rigidity of the pace tab on the racecard, I've gone to our Pace Analyser tool and broadened the criteria slightly to get a bigger/better sample size as follows...

Prominent runners hold their own and with an IV of just over 1, win about as often as expected. Mid-div and hold up horses win half or even less often as you'd think and that's because 3 in 7 leaders go on to make the frame and 1 in 3 leaders win. So when it comes to average pace scores, we need a figure greater than 2.00 but the closer to 4.00, the better...

The first four of that list should all be up with the pace here, Lough Derg Farmer might actually set the pace, but he's equally likely to just drop out the back. Previously fancied Present Chief will have to work hard to get involved if he runs as he normally does, whilst three held-up runs from four adds another nail to the coffin for Louis' Vac Pouch.

Summary

We've eight runners here, but I'm happy to suggest a four horse race between (alphabetically) Event of Sivola, Oscar Montel, Present Chief and Speak of the Devil. None of this quartet tick all the boxes, unfortunately and I'm going to have to decide which one has the least negatives....

  • Event of Sivola has been very consistent over the last year and is down in both class and weight from a good run here LTO, finishing well clear of a subsequent winner. he receives weight all round, has good course/distance form and will be up with the pace BUT has a 207 day lay-off to contend with.
  • Oscar Montel is another consistent placer, but doesn't win often enough if truth be told. He likes to be up with the pace, ran really well last time out and has the benefit of a recent outing. His place numbers are excellent on Instant Expert, BUT he invariably finds one (or more) just too good for him.
  • Present Chief is unexposed over fences after just one effort to date, but wasn't beaten by far on that occasion just four weeks ago despite coming back from five months off. The trip should be fine for him, his usual jockey is in situ, BUT he has tended to dwell in races and he might have too much ground to make up here.
  • Speak Of The Devil is probably the one to beat on form, having won by 8L at Hexham LTO, BUT his jumping has been a little suspect in the past, he's up 6lbs and hasn't raced for around 20 weeks, so might actually be better next time out. That said, he is consistent and did win at Hexham last October after 213 days off the track.

Effectively, we've two who might need a run and of those two, I think Speak of the Devil has the better chance, whilst of the two with a recent run, Present Chief is a better horse than Oscar Montel, leaving me with a 1-2 of Speak Of The Devil ahead of Present Chief. 

Speak has been off the track for a while but has run well after a break and assuming his jumping holds up again, a price of 7/2 might be more than fair, which is more than can be said abou the 7/4 currently offered about Present Chief based on one run. He certainly has ability, but there can't be much value in those odds, especially if he dwells. If you like him and he does start slowly, you may well get a much better price in-running.

As for third/fourth, there's not much to pick between Event and Oscar, but I'd probably plump for the latter due to the former's long lay-off.

Racing Insights, 14th October 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 2.15 Curragh
  • 2.20 Wincanton
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 5.05 Brighton
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

And of those, the second of the list is both interesting and a decent standard. It's a Class 3 contest, so we should have some decent form to work from, but it's interesting to see Good to Firm ground in mid-October for the 2.20 Wincanton, a 7-runner, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 1m7f worth £9,258...

We should start with the two obvious flies in the ointment here, firstly See The Sea is likely to be a very short favourite which would open up the E/W market, but secondly Manor Park doesn't run, so we're on two places only for those E/W picks, unless you get three for the place on the exchanges.

That doesn't make the race analysis a bust, though, we might find reasons to oppose the fav!

So, from the card...

See The Sea is the only LTO winner, but Wasdell Dundalk is 2 from 3, Ar Mest has a win in his last three, Roar is 2 from 4 and Thahab Ifraj also has a win in his last four. All seven have won over today's trip and Thahab Ifraj has won over course and distance. In fact he won this race last year.

Get Back Get Back, Ar Mest and See The Sea are all up one class, but Roar moves the opposite way and Strong Glance drops down 2 grades after a couple of Gr 3 runs earlier this year. Ar Mest has moved yards during his 131 day layoff, whilst Strong Glance has been off the track even longer at 188 days. Thahab Ifraj raced 53 days ago, but the other four have all been seen in the last fortnight (I write this on Wednesday!).

Strong Glance hasn't raced since being well beaten in back to back Gr 3 handicaps at the Chetenham & Aintree festivals in the spring and this is definitely easier on paper, but he's been off for a while now and hasn't actually won over hurdles for almost 21 months and that was only at Class 4 and he's effectively 2lbs higher now after jockey allowances. Might need this before improvement is seen.

Get Back Get Back has been runner-up in three of his four starts since the end of the last winter season. He was beaten by three lengths off today's mark last time out, but he did win off 1lb higher last year, so this isn't beyond him entirely.

Wasdell Dundalk has only won two of thirteen over hurdles, but he has finished 323113 in his last six outings, winning off marks of 111 and 118, so a career best would be needed here off 122, but he's running well. His best form has come over 2m, so this short trip might suit him more than the 2m+ races that have accounted for most of his defeats.

Ar Mest won a handicap seller over hurdles at Fakenham by ten lengths back in May on his last run for Gary Moore. Nick Mitchell then tried him over fences twice and he didn't go well at all and now, under a third trainer in a little over 5 months, he reverts to hurdles. He's only tackled hurdles five times since Christmas 2018, but has finished 11561 in those five handicap runs and he's only 1lb higher than that last win, but it was a Class 5 race. He'd be a surprising contender and probably wants some rain, but stranger things have happened.

Roar is useful on the Flat and won over 1m6f as recently as early August and also has a pair of 2m/2m0.5f handicap hurdle successes under his belt. It's a little over four months since he last tackled a hurdle but has kept fit/sharp via five efforts on the Flat, but was well beaten last time out. He's also one class and five pounds higher than his last hurdles win, so this might be tough but not impossible.

See The Sea has been getting better and better of late finishing 322 before romping home by sixteen lengths off this mark at Ludlow last time out. Yeah, he's up in class here, but the way he made all on the way to a new course record last week suggests he's ready to go again and it's easy to see why he'll be short-priced here.

Thahab Ifraj has won five of nineteen over hurdles, a decent return that includes landing this race last year at the start of a run reading 113122 before a poor run last time out that saw him last home of six, some 27 lengths off the winner. I'd be inclined to suggest that was a blip and if he runs as he can, he could very well have a say in proceedings here, even if he is 7lbs worse off than last year's win.

That's an overview of all of them, but the deciding factor might well be the ground as not all hurdlers like it quicker/firmer than good ground, so to see if they've handled/not handled/not tried Good to firm ground, Instant Expert has all the details...

On overall form, See The Sea hasn't fared too well on good to firm and last year's winner Thahab Ifraj is the standout horse, but if we look specifically at handicap hurdles...

...the fav's going stats are better, but he still struggles at this grade. Thahab still looks the one to beat of the rest, but as we started with the prospect of finding a placer, we should also look at place stats for handicap hurdles...

It's unknown territory for Strong Glance here and the place king looks to be Get Back Get Back, whose hurdling career stands at 2 wins and 5 places from 12 starts.

We've already said that ground this quick might not suit all the runners here and the tempo of the race will also play its part, I'm sure. Our pace stats and analysis tool can quickly show us how each might run and also what the best tactics have been here in the past.

So, from the pace analysis...

...I'd say that just off the pace but not too far off is the key. Those that go off quickest have tended to get caught and those held up for a run have struggled to close the gap. It's always harder to close the gap, the faster everyone is travelling. We can then make a prediction on how we think the horses will run, based on their last four outings, but bearing in mind the results those tactics achieved eg if a horse is always held-up and it always gets beat, then there's always a chance they'll try something different at some point, so the pace suggestions are just that, but based on fact.

And those last four runs...

See The Sea is a confirmed front-runner and Thahab Ifraj might try to go with him.
Roar and Strong Glance are hold-up horses and that probably won't bode well for them.
This leaves us with Wasdell Dundalk, Ar Mest and Get Back Get Back as the prominent/mid-div runners.

Summary

There are several reason why I won't back See The Sea here :  the price is prohibitive, he doesn't like the ground, he's got a poor Class 3 record and pace analysis says you're a sitting target trying to make all, BUT the way he romped home last time out says he can defy all those negatives and win again, but I'm in no rush at 4/7 or 8/11 to lump on.

So what do I do next? Well, I think the likes of Thahab Ifraj, Wasdell Dundalk and Get Back Get Back are all possibles for a place here, especially if you can get three places on the exchanges. The latter is "only" 11/2 and there's not enough juice in that price for me but Thahab & Wasdell are 11/1 and 10/1 respectively, so I'll have a small tickle on those two from an E/W or place perspective.

Racing Insights, 30th September 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating.

The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 2.15 Clonmel
  • 2.35 Warwick
  • 4.42 Salisbury
  • 4.50 Bellewstown
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

And today's piece takes us to Wiltshire, because not only is the 4.42 Salisbury the best of the above half dozen races, but it also features soft ground, which tends to really affect the outcome of races. The race itself is a Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f and the following eight (hope it stays that way for E/W bettors) runners will be aiming to land the £10,260 first prize...

King Carney looks the weakest here based purely on recent results, as he's the only one without a win in his last five. Rebel Territory has placed in all of his last five and is also our only LTO winner.

Majestic Dawn is the positive for class movement, dropping down from Group 3, whilst both March Law and Rebel Territory are up one level here with Prince of Harts moving up two from Class 4.

King Carney is making a debut for his new yard and Poet of Life makes just a second handicap start. The latter is one of five three year olds getting a 5lb weight allowance.

Majestic Dawn ended 2020 by making all in the Cambridgeshire, getting home by the best part of five lengths at odds of 40/1. That put his handicap mark up by 11lbs for 2021 and although beaten twice in this grade off that new mark, he hasn't been disgraced and most recently was only 3.75 lengths off the winner in a Group 3 on soft ground at Haydock and both horses ahead of him that day have since been runners-up in subsequent Gr 3 contests. Mohammed Tabti rides him here and he's been goin‌g well on unfancied and his 7lb claim effectively makes this horse just 3lbs worse off than that Cambridgeshire romp. His yard is also in fine form...

King Carney looked like he might be something when landing a soft ground Listed race as a 2 yr old in October 2019, but hasn't kicked on at all from there and was beaten by 10 lengths at Nottingham last time. He hasn't been seen for 130 days, so might well need the run on yard debut for Tony Carroll, but I'm sure his jockey will be doing her best to continue her good record at this venue...

Just Fine finally landed a handicap at the fourth time of asking back in July under today's jockey (who is 5/20 in hcps here since 2017), but was raised 9lbs for the win leading to him finishing last of four at Goodwood a month ago. Has ability, but work to do here, even if...

Poet of Life didn't run as a 2yo and is the least experienced/exposed in this contest after just four outings. Mind you, this son of Frankel has two wins and a place from those four, so he's clearly started well, even if the good results were at Class 4/5. He tackled this grade for the first time at Sandown almost six weeks ago and went down by five lengths over this trip on good ground. Both wins came on good to soft, so he might prefer conditions here.

Lord Protector won his sole 2yo outing and kicked off this season by completing the hat-trick via wins over today's trip at Windsor (C5, gd) and here at Salisbury (C3, soft). Has found life a bit tougher up in class and weight, but has rested for 12 weeks and conditions should be good for him here, plus...

March Law was a runner-up in a soft ground Listed race over 7f last season but was only 4th of 5 on handicap debut at this class/trip at Beverley last month. that said, he was coming back from a break of almost 14 months and it was good to firm ground. He was only beaten by half a length over 1m3f on the poly at Kempton last week, but how he'll fare at this trip on soft ground remains to be seen, but yard & jockey do work well together...

Prince Of Harts had a poor 2020 finishing last of 8 and last of 6 in his only two efforts and hasn't really set the world on fire this season either. Three mid-division finishes were followed by a win by a neck at Class 4 before finishing 6th of 13 last time out. Up two classes here, I see him nearer last than first.

Rebel Territory carries bottom weight here and despite being raised 6lbs today, still receives weight all round. His last run saw him win a Class 3, 1m1f handicap on soft ground at Goodwood after a string of decent (3223) efforts. This will be the best race he's been entered for and he's on a career-high mark, but form is good, he likes soft ground and his jockey is hot right now...

If I was to stick my neck out at this point, I'd say it was a race of two halves to use a cross-sports cliché, as in I think half the field have a good chance here and the other half probably don't so far. At present, I'm most interested in (alphabetically) Lord Protector, Majestic Dawn, Poet of Life and Rebel Territory. I've got it in my head that they should be Ok with conditions, but it's always better to deal in facts, so let's consult 'feature of the day', Instant Expert...

All bar Poet of Life have some kind of form on soft ground, but Poet faces soft for the first time. He is however, 2 from 2 on good to soft, so we're not ruling him out on the ground conditions. We've four Class 2 placers in our midst and Majestic Dawn/King Carney probably have the best records but the latter's form is from over a year ago and beyond. Lord Protector is 1 from 2 here (also 3rd of 7), but two failures from Prince of Harts aside, this is new territory for the rest of the field. My preferred four have the best place strike rates for this trip with Lord Protector faring best, but like all those with a flat handicap win, he's carrying more weight than his last success.

After seeing those stats, I'm still inclined to believe that my preferred four should be the first four home. This quartet are drawn in stalls 3,4,5 and 7 and the draw analyser for 1m1f to 1m2f on good to soft and soft here says that...

...of my four, those in stalls 4 & 5 (Majestic/Poet) might be best off. Using the draw analyser under the same parameters, the numbers tell me that you essentially want to be up with the pace, if not setting it...

Based on how this field has raced in their last four outings...

...March Law looks the most likely to set the pace with Majestic Dawn and Lord Protector seeming to be the ones who will chase him (hopefully into submission) from the off.  The draw stats weren't massively skewed to any particular area of the stalls, but the pace stats clearly defined how to race here, so when we combine pace and draw...

...then I'd say that of my four that Majestic Dawn and Lord Protector come out on top.

Summary

I nailed my colours to the mast quite early on and chose a half of the field (Lord Protector, Majestic Dawn, Poet of Life and Rebel Territory)to side with and I'm still happy with my decision. Based on everything above, I'd say the first two named of my quartet appeal to me more than the second pair. Lord Protector and Majestic Dawn were by the best suited on pace/draw, both will be fine on soft ground, the former has the best results in this race at this trip, whilst the latter is a group horse dropping into a Class 2 handicap.

There probably won't be much between the pair, but I'm siding with the 8/1 Majestic Dawn (looks a huge price to me) ahead of the 7/1 ( a bit skinny in my opinion, I was expecting/hoping for bigger to go E/W) Lord Protector.

As for third place, the progressive Rebel Territory (6/1) might just have too much for the 10/3 fav Poet of Life. Be one hell of a tricast/trifecta if my three can beat the fav : fingers crossed!

 

 

 

 

Racing Insights, 23rd September 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab in the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating.

The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be

  • 1.25 Perth
  • 2.15 Listowel
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 4.05 Pontefract
  • 5.25 Wolverhampton

One of our five free races is a Listed race, so we'll look at that here. It's the 3.20 Newmarket, where 10 runners will race over two miles on good to soft ground for a prize of almost £29,500...

Only Max Vega, Morando and Nayef Road are without a relatively recent win, whilst both island Brave & Rhythmic Intent were winners last time out. Both LTO winners are stepping up from Class 2 today, as are Max Vega and Roberto Escobarr, whilst all the field have raced in the last six weeks, with four (Nayef road, Rhythmic Intent, Eileendover & Crowns Major) having been seen in the past fortnight.

The age spread is 4 to 8 and if this was a handicap, Nayef Road would berst in at the weights with Noonday Gun worst off, rated some 19lbs inferior.

Positive trainer stats for Roberto Escobarr, Rhythmic Intent and Sleeping Lion on recent form plus Morando and Sleeping Lion for course records. Nayef Road's jockey is in good touch as re the riders of Morando, Noonday Gun and Sleeping Lion, but Jamie Spencer (Crowns Major) is struggling right now. The jockeys highlighted for good course records are aboard Max Vega, Morando and Sleeping Lion, but Shane Kelly (Eileendover) has toiled here of late.

Roberto Escobarr won a Listed race at York in June and was only beaten by four lengths in a Group 3 at the same venue four weeks later. He wasn't at this best when 6th in the Ebor, but was second of all those drawn in the first eight stalls. It'll be interesting to see how he copes with 2m for the first time, but his two Class 1 York runs suggest he could get involved.

Crowns Major stayed 2m½f on his Irish debut five months ago, landing a 22-runner bumper at Punchestown and was also a half-length runner-up of 19 in a soft ground handicap at Galway in late July, so trip and going should be fine, but this is a big race for a UK debut.

Island Brave is arguably better on the A/W (7 from 22) than on turf (4/22), but landed a Class 2 handicap over 1m6f at Haydock earlier this month, bringing to an end a run of seven runs without making the frame. He stays further than and whilst maybe not as good as some of the others, he'll still be running when many are struggling. Could make the frame here, especially as....

Max Vega looked really useful in his first three races, some two years back, culminating in a Group 3 win here at Newmarket over 1m2f. Since then, he has only raced six times, finishing 502075 and was well beaten on his only crack at two miles. He finished strongly in the Ebor last time out, but I have doubts about him getting the trip here, despite...

Morando is a respectable 7 from 28 on the Flat, but is winless in nine since landing a Group 3 race at Ascot almost two years ago. He did, however, look like he was coming back to form when third of seven at Chester last time out, beaten by just over a length in another Listed contest and if the rain comes, he'll be happier.

Nayef Road won a 2m½f Group 3 race at Newcastle last summer before being beaten by only the mighty Stradivarius in a pair of Group 1 stayers at Ascot & Goodwood. he hasn't quite been as good this term, unfortunately, but was third of six and only 6.5 lengths behind 'Strad' again in the Doncaster Cup last time out. That's no disgrace and this is a drop in quality for a horse that stays, won't mind a bit of dampness underfoot and likes coming here...

Noonday Gun is just 2 from 11 at Class 4/5, but did tackle a Listed race at Chester last time out finishing 5th of 7 in a tight finish where he lacked closing speed over 1m6½f and was more than a length and a half behind the re-opposing Morando who was third that day. I'd be surprised if he was anywhere near the reckoning here, despite the form of his jockey...

Rhythmic Intent is probably more reliable/workmanlike than he is a superstar, but he plugs on and runs his race more often than not, making the frame in 12 of 22 on turf. Soft ground doesn't faze him, he goes best within a month of his last run and was a winner of a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster less than a fortnight ago. This will be the furthest trip he's tackled, but if 'getting' it, he could surprise a few by making the frame at a price.

Sleeping Lion last won on turf a little over two years ago and hasn't made much impression in six efforts since, making the frame just once. He did, however, land a Class 2 A/W handicap at Kempton at the start of the season, but his three runs since then have seen him finish 12th of 15, 4th of 12 and 7th of 8 and that's not good enough for a race like this, even if...

Eileendover is the only filly in the race and only made her debut in November of last year. She kicked her career off with a hat-trick of bumper wins, the last of which was a Listed race over 2m1f on heavy ground in January. That should assure us of her stamina if nothing else.She hasn't quite hit those heights on the Flat yet, but has run consistently well in five efforts. She has won once in a Class 2 handicap here at Newmarket over 1m6f and her average margin of defeat in the other four is only around 5.5 to 6 lengths, so I'd expect her to be there or thereabouts without actually doing enough to win.

And now, our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

My take on the above win/place graphics is that Roberto Escobarr and Crowns Major are in largely new surroundings. Island Day and Noonday gun don't look well suited right now. The winner might well come from Max Vega, Morando, Nayef Road and Rhythmic Intent based on those numbers, whilst we don't really have enough relevant form about Sleeping Lion and/or Eileendover, although the former does like the trip.

Many flat races are heavily influenced by pace, draw and the interaction between the two. Regular readers will know that I don't set as much aside for the draw in these long distance races as I do for the sprints etc, but that doesn't mean the draw stats have no validity and with only a small number of similar races to consider, we should tread carefully, but...

...the initial inference is that those drawn highest fare best and when we look at the data stall by stall...

...horses drawn in 1-7 have 5 wins from 63 (7.94%) with 18 (28.57%) making the frame, but those drawn 8 and higher are 4 from 18 (22.22%) with 8 (44.44%) making the frame. These are small sample sizes, of course, but those drawn 8 and above seem 2.8 times more likely to win and 1.6 times more likley to place, which could be good news for Crowns major, Island Brave and Rhythmic Intent.

The pace stats seem more clear...

...with the basic premise being sit and wait. As you're probably aware, we log the running styles of all horses, awarding them a pace score of 1-4 where 1 = held up, 2 = mid-div, 3 = prominent and 4 = led. A horse with a 4-race score of 4 is a confirmed hold-up horse and one with 16 is an out and out pace-setter. This is how our ten runners have raced most recently...

We actually have no out and out pace or hold-up horses here, but Max Vega has two scores of 4, whilst Nayef Road, Noonday Gun and Island brave have all made the pace once recently. Max vega is a strange one, as he's also been held up twice, as have Island Brave, Crowns Major, Morando and Sleeping Lion.

We can then combine pace and draw as follows...

...that's a fairly telling picture, as long as we remember that it is only based upon nine races and when we add our runners to that heatmap...

...Nayef Road and then Roberto Escobarr are best suited of those drawn low or even in stalls 1-7. Those in 4 to 7 don't have a favourable make-up at all, but those in the high draws are sitting nicely in the green. And I think that those in stalls 1, 2, 8, 9 and 10 are the half of the field I want to be with here.

Summary

So, at this point, I've already set aside those in stalls 3 to 7 and I now just need to take two more out before deciding whether to have a bet or not. Crowns Major is probably the weakest of my five and this represents a huge step up for his UK debut, so he's out of my reckoning and then based on pace/draw, I'd say Roberto Escobarr is worst off there of my four survivors, I don't have enough collateral form data about him and he's conceding weight all round, so he's the final evictee.

That leaves us with Island Brave, Nayef Road and Rhythmic Intent as my three against the field and I prefer Nayef Road to the others. His perennial fly in the ointment, Stradivarius, isn't here for once and it could well be our boys day. He's 7/2 here, which is borderline acceptable, but very skinny indeed.

Island Brave looks set fair for a place ahead of Rhythmic Intent, but with the pair of them priced at 11/1 and 14/1, they might make for nice E/W bets, especially if Nayef Road shortens any further.

 

 

Racing Insights, 19th January 2021

Tuesday's feature of the day is the Shortlist Report and our free races of the day are...

  • 1.05 Clonmel
  • 2.35 Clonmel
  • 3.45 Exeter
  • 3.55 Fakenham

The Shortlist Report looks like this today...

...so why don't we see if Ballybreen is likely to land the spoils in the 3.45 Exeter, as that's one of our free races?

The card...

...says that he, Apple's Queen and Sandford Castle are the form horses here. His trainer is the only trainer with both a positive form (30) and course record (C5) icon and he heads the Geegeez Speed Ratings. He's one of only three course and distance winners and actually won this very contest a year ago.

As you'd expect, Instant Expert paints a good picture of him, although the red for his soft ground performances might be a little misleading, but I'll come to that shortly, of course!

You'll also notice that he's now 7lbs higher for winning five days ago, but that probably doesn't tell the whole story of a 32 length success, where he made all and was well clear from a long way out and would probably have still coasted home carrying a bag of wet sand. Those front running tactics will probably be used again today, but is that a good idea here at Exeter?

Well, with 9 wins from the 15 horses to have tried to win 13 similar races from the front, I'd say that leading is the best plan of attack and our pace tab suggests that's exactly what he'll do.

So from the card and its Instant Expert & Pace tabs, I've still no reason not to believe he can and will win this one. Time for a closer look at his numbers, I think.

His record over fences reads 111281 since the start of 2020 and he's never usually left in the shed too long. The exception to that was the one bad result in that list, when last of 8 over 3m2f on heavy ground having being laid off for 222 days. He still ran from the front that day but tired in the closing stages, as he'd be entitled to, so I don't read too much into that defeat. I'd also add that he wasn't wearing blinkers that day either, but does normally and will here.

In those six races and of relevance here, Conor Ring was in the saddle for all six, he finished 11121 in blinkers, 1112 going right handed, he won 3 from 3 in January, 2 from 2 over this trip (and 2 from 3 at 3m1.5f/3m2f), he had one win and one runner-up finish from two runs here at Exeter and the same record on soft ground (much better recently on soft than his previous form) and he did, of course, win this race a year ago on heavy ground.

Summary

It might all seem a bit short and sweet, but some days/races it takes virtually no time at all to come to a decision, especially when the compelling evidence is pretty much handed to you. I liked Ballybreen last time out and he won at a decent price. I like him here and I don't think 7lbs was the difference between him winning and not winning last time out.

So, yes, Ballybreen for me. 3/1 looks a tad generous as I was expecting 9/4 or 5/2 at best, I'm on!

Dream Conditions For Century In Celebration Mile

Soft ground seems to have scared many runners away this weekend leaving us with a day of largely smaller field races. The highest class race of the day is the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood and that’s going to be the focus of this article. One of the most popular features of Geegeez Gold is the ‘Instant Expert’ and I’m going to use the Instant Expert to gain a quick overview of the seven runners set to take part in this race.

Place Data

First let’s take a look at it from a place perspective:

Instant Expert Place Data

Ground

I’ve set the going parameter to anything from good to soft down to heavy. We are probably going to be looking at soft, borderline heavy ground for this race but this should allow us to get more data. We can dig deeper into what specific going each horse has handled or not handled later.

It seems that Century Dream and Sir Busker stand out as two runners that not only handle cut in the ground, but relish it. Century Dream has had the most runs on testing ground and has impressively placed in seven of his ten runs. Sir Busker is next best with four placings from six runs on ground that is good to soft or softer.

There is limited evidence about Urban Icon’s ability to handle cut in the ground as he’s had just two runs in these conditions, placing in one of those.

Interestingly enough Regal Reality and Benbatl, the two early favourites have failed to place in over 50% of their races in this sort of going. Between them they’ve managed just three placings in nine starts. The only runners in this field to have never placed on softer ground are Duke Of Hazzard and Positive who seem to have been kept away from softer ground as often as possible and with good reason.

Class

Century Dream again comes out on top having placed in five out of eight runs in class 1 races. Duke Of Hazzard and Positive, who scored poorly on this ground, actually score very well here. That’s not a big help though if they don’t go on the ground.

Urban Icon, Regal Reality and Benbatl have poorer records in class 1 races but it’s worth remembering this will include anything from listed contests to Group 1 races and there can be more merit in finishing 4th in a Group 1 than 1st in a listed race. We’ll dig deeper into the race class later.

Sir Busker is the only one of these to be running in a class 1 race for the first time.

Course

At a course as unique as Goodwood course form is always a positive. There is one clear winner here and that is Duke Of Hazzard who has never been out of the frame in four starts. Sir Busker has placed in two of his three runs. It’s fair to say that no runner is this field has run poorly at this venue.

Distance

You’d expect most runners in a Group 2 to have a solid record over the race distance but it’s worth noting that the favourite here, Benbatl, has managed just one placing in five runs at a mile. This stat really stands out and along with the ground stats for Benbatl suggests he has a poor profile for this race.

Like Benbatl, Regal Reality is another who scored badly on this ground and also has a poor record over this distance whilst Urban Icon is another with a sub 50% placing ratio at a mile.

Century Dream continues to score well with the best ratio here having placed in 67% of his runs over a mile.

Field Size

Often an underrated criteria, many horses are better suited to bigger fields and others to smaller fields. Yet again Century Dream is looking good having placed in all his runs in field sizes of 7 or less.

The stand out here is Regal Reality’s record in small fields. He’s managed to place in just two of his eight runs in field sizes this small.

Placings Summary

Without having to dig deep into the form Instant Expert has shown us that Century Dream is the really solid horse in this race. Sir Busker also scores well in most categories but is unproven (having been untried) in this sort of company. Duke Of Hazzard looks pretty good but there are serious ground concerns.

At the other end of the scale, Benbatl and Regal Reality, look two of the riskier propositions despite their positions in the market.

Win Data

This is what Instant Expert looks like for win purposes. We are getting less data here but the data we do get should be more telling.

Instant Expert Win Data

Once again Century Dream is coming out very well on all criteria except course as he is yet to run at Goodwood. Sir Busker is another who looks solid and a good proposition over a mile on testing ground at Goodwood. He’s yet to prove himself in this company and perhaps the biggest question mark for this horse is his ability to run well in smaller fields.

Duke Of Hazzard is interesting based on his course record of three wins from four starts. He also has a decent enough strike rate at this distance and in small fields. He’s had only one run on softer ground and finished unplaced so that’s the big unknown.

Early favourite Benbatl only really seems to have small field ability in his favour for win purposes whilst Regal Reality is unbeaten at Goodwood but other than that most of the elements that make up this race seem against him.

Positive scores poorly for wins in any of these circumstances except field size, and even a sole victory from three starts in small fields isn’t that great on the face of things. Meanwhile there is little evidence that Urban Icon will be at home in this race.

Digging Deeper

So far we have a very positive profile for Century Dream, a generally positive one for Sir Busker and a big ground question mark over Duke Of Hazzard. It also seems Benbatl and Regal Reality might be worth taking on.

Let’s first look at Duke Of Hazzard’s ground preference as he may be easy to rule out on that basis. Instant Expert is only able to look at runs from the UK and Ireland and a deeper look at Duke Of Hazzard’s form tells us he’s actually run three times on ground softer than good. Two of those runs were perhaps slightly below par but in Group 1 company so finishing unplaced wasn’t a disgrace. He also finished 2nd in a listed race at Deauville on good to soft. It doesn’t look as though he’s hopeless on softer ground and he clearly goes very well at Goodwood but there has to be a suspicion he is at his best on fast ground and it will probably take a near career best to win this.

Are Benbatl and Regal Reality really no hopers in this race despite their odds? Benbatl is the highest rated runner in this field and has largely been contesting Group 1 races over the past few years so having more unplaced efforts isn’t the end of the world. Looking at the ground though, he has been beaten favourite on softer than good on three of his four starts in those conditions (and was well beaten over too far a trip on his other attempt). The worse the ground gets, the worse he performs it seems.

Benbatl also had some worrying stats in races over a mile. Two of his five runs at a mile came on heavy ground. Those runs are relevant here as the going may not be far off heavy but they aren’t poof that he isn’t effective at a mile. He’s won over this trip at Group 2 level in the past so he’s clearly capable of winning this sort of race at this distance but it backs up the suspicion that the ground will be too soft for him.

Regal Reality was an impressive winner last time out over this trip at Group 3 level (good to firm). That was in an 8 runner field which perhaps allays fears he doesn’t act in smaller fields (he does have a poor record when there are 7 or fewer runners). All his wins outside of maiden company have been on good to firm ground though and whilst he’s placed on softer ground it’s worth noting that his only defeat from four runs at Group 3 level came on soft ground. The ground is the main reason to oppose Regal Reality but the fact he’s not won above Group 3 level in eight attempts is also a concern for his backers.

That leaves us with Century Dream and Sir Busker. Century Dream looks extremely solid based on Instant Expert so let’s see if he has any limitations. He’s never run at Goodwood but there is nothing in his profile that suggests he won’t handle the course. Possibly the best evidence we can get is to look at the Instant Expert for this race but from the sires’ perspectives.

Instant Expert Sire Data

Cape Cross’ offspring have run nine times at Goodwood in the past two years producing two winners. That might not seem a massive win ratio but it’s only bettered by Sire Prancelot (sire of Sir Busker) here and even then that’s by just 1%.

Let’s now look at Century Dreams’ defeats in Group company over a mile with cut in the ground. His two career unplaced efforts in these conditions came in an Ascot handicap on good to soft ground where perhaps it wasn’t quite soft enough for him and again at Ascot in a Group 1. In fact this horse has won just once from seven starts at Ascot (33% strike rate elsewhere) so it might not be his ideal course, for all he is Group 1 placed there on soft ground. Away from Ascot his only defeat over mile on softish ground was a 2nd in a listed race at Newmarket.

It would be hard to argue that Century Dream isn’t good enough to win this Group 2. His only run so far at this level was a 4th in the Summer Mile at Ascot on unsuitable good to firm ground. He has won both his starts at Group 3 level comfortably and has previously got within ¾ of a length of Roaring Lion in the QEII stakes at Ascot (possibly not his favourite track).

Can Sir Busker defeat him? He’s been a rapid improver this season, going up 19lbs in just 5 runs and he’s still relatively unexposed at this distance. He was slightly unlucky not to win a competitive handicap last time out off 107 so could easily yet rate higher than his current mark of 111 which leaves him just 4lbs to find on Century Dream. Sir Busker was 2nd here as a 2yo, won a low grade handicap here as a 3yo and his only unplaced effort at this course was in the Golden Mile two starts ago when getting no run on the rail whatsoever.

The main concern with Sir Busker would be his ability to handle small fields. He’s a real hold up performer who needs a decent pace to aim at so it stands to reason he’d generally be better in bigger fields. He has won in 8 and 9 runner fields, albeit off much lower marks in handicaps, but was outpaced in several smaller field races last year (often at shorter trips than this).

The key here to Sir Busker is going to be the early pace.

Celebration Mile Pace Map

Benbatl is likely to lead with Century Dream well placed just off him. It doesn’t look like there will be a strong pace which could inconvenience Sir Busker. If Benbatl ends up being withdrawn because of the ground then there is likely to be an even slower gallop and that pushes things more in the favour of Century Dream and less in the favour of Sir Busker.

They say ‘class horses go on any ground’ but the evidence in this race is that several of these are going to find conditions (not just the ground) against them. Century Dream seems to have everything going for him and Sir Busker is not far behind.

I wouldn’t put anyone off either of these runners who are available at 11/2 and 9/1 respectively at the time of writing. Unfortunately with just 7 runners each way betting is far less attractive. However it could be worth maximising the value from this race by backing both Century Dream and Sir Busker in a reverse forecast.

Using Query Tool to find Heavy Ground Angles

It's been raining. Rather a lot. Those courses which have dodged the abandonment bullet are largely racing on heavy ground just now, and that presents a challenge for us punters because most horses have little or no form on such a testing surface.

So how do we mitigate for this? Plan A for most is to guess. Not ideal.

Plan A for Gold subscribers should be to do a little digging; and in this shortish video I'll show you a couple of ways - via Instant Expert and the Query Tool - to home in on those sires whose progeny might be worth marking up when the mud is flying.

 

Hope that's useful.

Matt

p.s. It's Royal Ascot next week - whoop! - and if you haven't yet secured your Gold subscription, you can take a £1 trial here (new users only, please). Alternatively you can access a short-term seven-day sub for just £12 by clicking here. Good luck!

BIG New Additions to Geegeez Gold

I'm really pleased and excited to be able to announce some significant upgrades to Geegeez Gold today. They are:

  • User notes and ratings
  • Instant Expert inline form, and 'select a rating'
  • *IV3* Draw feature

The video below demonstrates how they work and, below that, I've copied sections from the User Guide for those who prefer to read rather than watch/listen.

I'm already using the new features myself every day and I'm sure many of you will soon find them as indispensable as I do.

 

Here are the relevant User Guide sections...

Instant Expert Inline Form

As of April 2019, users may now select a particular form ‘block’ with a click or tap and view the related form lines.

For example, clicking anywhere in the ‘[2][2][100]’ Course block for Flying Verse opens an inline block with that horse’s two course runs in the selected context. The chosen block is highlighted.

Click the block again to close the inline form, or select another block to view further form.

IV3 Data

Introduced in April 2019 is IV3. IV3 stands for Impact Value 3, and is simply an average of a stall and its nearest neighbours. For instance, the IV3 of stall six would be the average IV of stalls 5, 6 and 7.

N.B. Stall 1 is calculated as the average IV of stalls 1 and 2, as is the highest stall.

This simple calculation helps to smooth the curve on our draw charts and isolate genuine biases, as in this example:

 

User Ratings and Notes

A major new addition in April 2019 is the ability for users to add notes and up to two ratings per horse performance.

Ratings Setup

Before adding ratings, many users will elect to create scales which enable auto-calculation. These are simply pounds-per-length calculations based on distance and optionally going. This is undertaken via the My Ratings Settings page, found in the Notes & Ratings dropdown on My Geegeez.

My Ratings Settings

The My Ratings Settings page looks like this:

Each of the blocks represents a different combination of race code and going range. These are the default settings, and ratings are calculated based on the priority sequence of the blocks (in case of overlap between race code/going range).

Users are able to add or remove blocks using the buttons; re-sequence the blocks by dragging and dropping them; and also to restore the defaults.

Once any setting revisions have been saved, ratings for beaten horses will be calculated automatically based on these settings and the winner’s given rating.

 

Adding Notes and Ratings

Notes and ratings are added from within a race result. The default layout is for the functionality to be hidden. Clicking ‘Show Ratings’ to display the ratings features.

Once ‘Show Ratings’ has been clicked, the page re-formats as follows:

Adding Notes

Notes may be added at the MEETING, RACE or HORSE level. Notes are auto-saved when a user clicks elsewhere on the page, but it is strongly recommended to use the ‘SAVE’ buttons provided.

Adding Ratings

To add a rating, enter the winner’s figure into the box Rating 1. The Lbs/Length box is pre-populated based on the Rating Settings page data but may be over-written if required.

By default, R1 and R2 are both checked, which allows a user to create two ratings at the same time. However, the ratings would be calculated using the same Lbs/Length scale. If, for example, R1 was a form-based rating and R2 was a time-based rating, a user may want to use different figures for the winners but have the beaten horses’ figures calculated from the same Lbs/Length scale.

If a different scale is required, the user must uncheck R2 whilst producing the R1 ratings; and then uncheck R1 (and check R2) to produce the R2 ratings. Most users will only produce one set of ratings.

Once the winner’s rating has been entered and the CALCULATE button pressed, the beaten horse’s figures are automatically calculated. Click ‘SAVE RATINGS’ to save.

Viewing Notes and Ratings

Notes and ratings may be viewed within the Full Form tab. Ratings are displayed on the right-hand side. N.B. Users must opt to display the ratings from the My Racecard Options section on the My Geegeez page.

 

Notes are displayed by hovering over elements of the form line, as follows:

Datemeeting note

Race / Conditionsrace note

Race Outcomehorse note

Exporting Notes and Ratings

Users may export any generated notes and ratings content to csv from the My Geegeez page. Select the ‘Notes & Ratings’ section, and then click DOWNLOAD CSV.

**

For the lowdown on all features inside Geegeez Gold, check out the latest edition of the User Guide which can be found on your My Geegeez page.

And if you're not currently a subscriber to Geegeez Gold, you can take a 30 day trial for just £1 by clicking here.

Matt

Geegeez Gold Case Study #1

I received an email yesterday from a subscriber, Jack, who was struggling to make Gold work for him. He had a fairly set way of doing things on another site (absolutely fine, of course) and the migration to Geegeez was a challenge. Of course, we humans largely resent change - I certainly do!, so there's needs to be a good reason for making the switch. I like to think that we offer a plethora of such good reasons.

Anyway, in answering Jack's email, I thought the content might be useful to others, so I've reproduced his questions and my responses below. I will try to do occasional case studies like this to help introduce the various elements of Gold, and how you might incorporate them into your own betting.

OK, here goes - Jack's note first, and then my reply:

Hi Matt

Thanks for taking the time out for this. As I said to Chris I don't know how you guys manage to fit everything in to 24 hours/day!!??

Anyway here goes.

I use Classes 3 - 5 handicaps up to 1 mile on the flat and Classes 2 & 3 handicap chases up to 3 miles over jumps. Prefer to see no 3YOs in flat races and so prefer the 4+ races to the 3+ but they're a bit scarce after the first month or two. 3YOs can make big improvements as they grow stronger with age and gain experience but unfortunately there's no way to calculate that.

On the flat I like to find horses which have previously run well at the course and distance and have a chance when comparing today's OR to their last few runs and hopefully their run/s at today's CD, using the admittedly over-simplistic 1lb/1pt OR for each length beaten no matter the distance. I prefer the race to be at the same class or below that of it's usual races.

As an example if we stick with Joegogo in the 7.45 at Chelmsford on Thursday I can immediately see that 6 runs ago it ran in a class 3 over CD and came 4th of 6 but only beaten 2L, that it is now 6pts OR better off in today's race and, hovering over the race to bring up the comments, I note that it led in that race, faded late on and lost 2 places. I would expect it to do better in this weaker race so should at least make the frame. Looking at its last 3 races there are conceivable (admittedly a bit feeble) excuses for all of them! 3RA Wolves - came after a break so maybe not completely wound up, 2RA Southwell couldn't get the lead, LTO Lingfield, not a course brilliant for front runners and faded in final furlong over 6f. Now back at 5f.

Will be interesting to see if Adam Kirby again takes the ride although I would prefer a good apprentice to a) take a bit of weight off and b) hopefully deflect the bookies/other backers away from the horse - Adam's presence on it's back would probably lose a couple of points but would at least point to the horse being fit and well and having a chance.

All the above takes me only a minute or two, having done it for so long.

I would then switch to GeeGeez Gold to check the draw, pace and to quickly find out how the other runners in the previous Chelmsford race did as well as its last 3 races. Unfortunately this can only be a rough guide as without digging deeper there's no way of telling if those that have run since did so in better or worse races. If a horse/s still looks promising on Gold I would then go back to the RP to do the deeper digging.

Over the jumps I simply look for horses which have been running in better class races than today's. Not too bothered about the OR. Look to back those which have previously done well at the same type of course as todays, if not having run there before e.g. tight left/right handed, left handed galloping etc. So if a horse has been running well at say Market Rasen, Ludlow and Taunton I wouldn't be in a rush to back it at a left handed galloping course. Having backed horses since Blakeney won the Derby back in 1968 I know all the courses by heart so that only takes a couple of seconds. I don't bother over much with either the distance (as long as it's under 3m) or the going over jumps as I've missed winners doing that. I think the 'sloggers' come into their own once past 3m and find it difficult to evaluate those races.

In both codes I don't check how the trainer's doing - if badly then maybe today's runner will be the catalyst for a revival in stable fortunes! And if a 7lb claimer hasn't scored yet then maybe today's the day! So maybe I look a bit too much on the bright side! Also, as Gold has good info on trainers, jockeys and combos etc, I do realise that I'm not using it to its full extent but think that sometimes simple is better.

As I mentioned before all the above does not take long on the RP site as I've been doing it for years and I can fairly quickly go through all the runners in a race but it seems much slower for me when I use the Gold site. Maybe it's just a case of getting quicker as I use Gold.

The other thing that bothers me about Gold is that sometimes the draw advantage seems to come from relatively few races, especially when compared to FlatStats as I mentioned before. I like the way FlatStats lays it out e.g.'472 horses from 44 races analysed. Date range: 11-Jan-15 to 06-Dec-18' and followed by the charts. As it's free for this I tend to use it quite often.

Well that's enough of my ramblings and please don't spend much of your precious time looking for ways to help - I'm probably beyond help anyway!

All the best

Jack

 

Some really good and interesting points - and here is my reply...

 

Hi Jack

There is nothing in what you do that cannot be done on Geegeez. Regarding race selection, you can use the filters on the cards menu – I’ve filtered for C3-5 flat handicaps today in the first image below.

 

Race card menu filters for handicap, race code and race class

Race card menu filters for handicap, race code and race class

Course and distance form: best view is Full Form, where you can select the ‘course’ and distance’ filters. Joegogo Chelmsford example below. I’ve also checked Proximity Form there, which gives a traffic light view of how well the horse ran based on race distance and beaten lengths. Also on Full Form, you can see DR and RS columns: they tell you the draw – in this case six (of six) – and run style, in this case Led. Filtering a horse’s form by wins and/or places often highlights a pace preference/requirement; it also offers clues as to whether a horse ran well from a poor draw, or poorly from a good draw, etc. Finally, at the right side of the form line in Full Form, you can see that the race in question has R W P W% P % - that shows the subsequent form of the race. In this example, 18 runs, 0 wins and 3 places. So not spectacular in truth.

 

Full Form with Proximity form, Course and Distance checked

Full Form with Proximity form, Course and Distance checked

 

Checking Instant Expert will reveal overall form at the respective course, distance, class and field size (going too). The final column compares today’s OR with the horse’s last winning OR in this code. Again below is Joegogo, where we can see he’s four pounds below his last winning OR on the all-weather. (I have my settings to last 2 years form, and race code/hcap contextual – i.e. when it’s a handicap, this view is only showing me handicap form, and when it’s all-weather, it’s only showing me all-weather form; when it’s both, it’s only showing my AW handicap form).

 

Instant Expert shows form against the race conditions, and also an OR comparison against the last win in this code

Instant Expert shows form against the race conditions, and also an OR comparison against the last win in this code

 

For the jumps, you could use the Class Move report as a starting point – it’s here – and sort by those dropping in class. See image below. The reports are a treasure trove, and it’s worth spending a little time messing around with them, as you’ll discover all sorts of ‘ins’ to various races.

 

Class Move report can be sorted to show those horses stepping down (or up) the most in grade today

Class Move report can be sorted to show those horses stepping down (or up) the most in grade today

 

Regarding looking for horses which have done well on today’s type of course, again Full Form has filters for course direction, general profile and specific profiles, so you can easily see how your potential class droppers have fared on similar tracks. I personally think trainer form is more important than you do (!), but I always check the place percentages as well as the wins. They tell far more of a story than the headline win numbers. (We have green and red form indicators on our racecards, but I never use those without checking the place data, as I say).

Going for me is only important when it’s heavy or good to firm (jumps, firm on the flat). Extremes isolate the proven types, and I have a ‘rule of two’: once may be a fluke, twice almost certainly was not.

On the matter of draw, I think one needs to find the right balance between enough data in the sample, and the data being relevant to today’s race conditions. For example, looking at seven runner races is not useful when considering a 16 runner race. Looking at all data is not terribly useful when considering a soft ground flat race (the draw bias can change almost 100% from firm to soft at some tracks). We have dropdowns on our draw tab, but more than that we have ‘guide lines’ which show ‘all going’, ‘all field sizes’, and ‘all races’, so you can see how the ‘micro’ dataset relevant to today’s going and field size maps against the bigger (but less specific/relevant) datasets. I’ve included an example from Southwell today, where you can see that the overall draw data (fainter lines) would mislead you when compared against the specifics for today – also note that I again tend to use place data as it is more comprehensive.

 

The fainter lines show that the overall draw data might mislead a bettor. There is very little bias against today's conditions.

The fainter lines show that the overall draw data might mislead a bettor. There is very little bias against today's conditions.

 

I do appreciate it’s a fair bit to take in, and obviously it’s different from RP because there’s a heck of a lot more on our site. But I think you’ll be able to absorb these different elements quickly enough if working on them one by one. Gravitate to Geegeez rather than trying to do it all in one go, that’s my suggestion.

Hope that’s helpful,

Matt

****

And that was that.

It won't be possible for me to go into such detail for all who want some pointers - and, naturally, the first port of call is the User Guide and/or the videos I recently recorded. All of that helpful content can be found on your My Geegeez page.

But I will try to occasionally share something like the above.

If you're not currently a Gold subscriber and you've read this far, you must be interested in what you might be missing. Hopefully this has been an appetising little taster. If you've never tried Gold before, you can get access to everything for your first 30 days for just £1.

CLICK HERE TO CHECK US OUT >>

Good luck!

Matt

Instant Expert v2.0 is LIVE

It's live, the new Instant Expert v2.0. Or maybe we'll just continue to call it Instant Expert, eh?

Most importantly, if you're in the Remain camp, do nothing and Instant Expert will continue to display the data as ever it did. However, if you're an Instantexpiteer (see what I did there? Not great, granted) then you'll want to have a watch and a listen to the below videotape, which explains all...

There is also an updated User Guide that outlines the changes. You can get that from the link on the My Geegeez page.