Tag Archive for: Instant Expert

Racing Insights, Thursday 29/02/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.32 Clonmel
  • 4.35 Wetherby
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

...the best of which looks like being the 4.35 Wetherby, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed trip just 66yds shy of 2m4f on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Whilst War Soldier was a winner last time out, the form horse has to be North Parade who comes here on the back of a hat-trick of successes. As a n 8-race maiden, Paddy O'Mahler is the only one winless in their last seven races, a spell during which The Four Sixes and Hajey have won twice, War Soldier, North Parade and El Jefe three times with sole mare Windtothelightning winning four of seven.

The mare won her last race at Class 3 before finishing fourth at Class 2 and then she fell in a Listed race at Haydock recently, but she's back down two classes here today, whilst Hajey and North Parade step up one level. It's hard to see how Paddy O'Mahler finally gets off the mark here, though, as he steps up two classes. His shortest margin of defeat over hurdles is 14 lengths at Class 4 three starts ago and I'm happy to write off his chances here at Class 3.

Of the eight still 'under consideration', only The Four Sixes has yet to win over a similar trip, but his two wins came at 2m½f and 2m6f, so the trip shouldn't be beyond him. He has, however, already won here at Wetherby, scoring over 2m6f at this grade on soft ground when prevailing by six lengths on Boxing Day two starts ago and was in the frame LTO over 2m4½f here last time out. The other two previous course winners, top-weight Windtothelightning and War Soldier are both course and distance winners from three and one starts ago respectively.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, says that over the last couple of years...

...Windtothelightning, The Four Sixes, War Soldier and North Parade have proven themselves best under expected conditions here, whilst Ubetya hasn't tackled a hurdle for exactly 4 years since our last "leap day" and his recent form over fences (53PP) hasn't been great. Hajey has a reasonable record, but El Jefe looks vulnerable above. The place stats suggest that most of them should go well on the soft/heavy ground...

...but 1st and 3rd from a 2m4½f race here (War Soldier & The Four Sixes) have the best set of figures along with top weight Windtothelightning and if recent efforts are repeated here, that re-opposing duo might find themselves being at the head of the chasing group behind likely pacemaker Hajey (who sadly seems to save his best work for Catterick)...

...and setting the pace could well be his best chance of winning on his course debut...

Summary

If we look back on recent form, historical form via Instant Expert  and pace suitability, two horses get a mention each time, War Soldier and The Four Sixes and this pair finished a length and a half apart here over course and distance last time out. The latter is technically 2lbs better off here, which could/would be vital but for a 3lb claimer taking the ride instead of the 5lb claimer from last time.

That said, today's jockey, Lewis Stones, is 1 from 1 on The Four Sixes, courtesy of a 2m6f win here two starts ago and I think that might just be enough to tip the balance. I suspect it'll be tight here, but I've a marginal preference for The Four Sixes over War Soldier. As for an E/W bet or even a candidate for those of you doing the tricast/trifectas, the market at 5.10pm...

...has Hajey as my most likely E/W option, but I think the bookies might have it right and that Windtothelightning could make the frame instead. In fairness, it's a tricky/competitive race to call with eight of the nine runners only separated by 5,5pts in the market based on best available odds.

Racing Insights, Thursday 22/02/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.23 Thurles
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.05 Huntingdon
  • 4.53 Thurles

As most of you already know, I'm not a big fan of Irish racing (each to their own and all that) and with the lack of 'free' UK card available to me at the time of posting (the free list will repopulate later, don't worry), I've got carte blanche to pick any race to cover and the day's highest rated race in the UK is the 6.00 Newcastle, where I suspect Cover Up might be a warm favourite to land this 8-runner (poss E/W bets?), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Cover Up won last time out and is three from his last five and comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Moon Flight also won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four. Clearpoint made the frame on his last outing and is three from five and only top-weight Exalted Angel is without a win in seven or more, having lost 25 on the bounce in just over three years.

Exalted Angel is the only one of the eight not moving in class today as Intervention, Clearpoint (on yard debut for Simon Hodgson) and Lord Riddiford (licence rather than trainer change for this one) all drop down from Class 2, whilst hat-trick seeking Cover Up, Jump The Gun and fast-finishing pair Moon Flight & Pockley all step up from Class 4.

All eight have raced in the last 5 (Intervention) to 33 (Clearpoint/Lord Riddiford) days, so no layoffs to over come and Clearpoint, Cover Up (LTO), Moon Flight (also LTO) and Pockley have all won over this course and distance. Jump the Gun has won here over 6f (last November) and both Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have 5f Tapeta wins under their belts (Southwell and Wolverhampton respectively), but Intervention has won at neither track nor trip; he does however have 7 wins on tapeta over 6f/7f from 26 attempts at a very healthy 26.92% strike rate...

Clearpoint and Cover Up are the Instant Expert eyecatchers with lines of green, even if they are both 5lbs higher than their last A/W winning marks. Exalted Angel and Lord Riddiford have gone a long time since they last won an A/W contest, hence the latter's 10lb drop in ratings from his last win and whilst Pockley has won four times on this track, he prefers it slower than standard. If we then look at the place form from those races above...

...we could add the names of Intervention and Moon Flight to our list Instant Expert possibles alongside Cover Up and Clearpoint, giving us runners in stalls 1,2, 6 and 7 and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f sprint, there is a bit of a draw bias, favouring Intervention and Clearpoint here...

Now the draw stats from those 100+ races might have surprised a few of you, but I'm pretty sure the pace data from those races won't raise many eyebrows...

...which is pretty much as you'd expect, especially from a win perspective, which shows more bias than the place stats do, as leaders win 1.76 times more often than hold-up horses, but actually only place 1.3 times more. And if the isolated stats for the draw and the pace above are combined, the resulting heat map will probably not surprise you either...

...with the red box being the preferred combinations. We know how the field will line up ie

...so if we can place them onto the heat map, we can hopefully make a reasoned assumption to the outcome. Thankfully we also log how each horse has approached past races and their recent efforts look like this...

...with long-time loser Exalted Angel and three of my four from Instant Expert looking like the ones who'll be setting the pace and in terms of that pace/draw heat map...

Summary

Cover Up and Moon Flight both won last time out, but Clearpoint is also in good nick and he scored well on Instant Expert, as did hat-trick seeking Cover Up, of course, whilst Moon Flight and Intervention had good place stats. Of these four, Intervention and Clearpoint seemed to be more favoured by the draw, whilst the pace data was also against Moon Flight.

The pace/draw heat backed that up leaving me with three to choose from (in draw order) Cover Up, Intervention and Clearpoint. It would be easy/lazy to just suggest Cover Up wins again here, based on form, but let's not forget that he's up in class and also up 5lbs for just a half length win.

He probably should win here, but the 5.40pm odds ranging from Evens to 13/8 don't really excite me, but I am interested in the other pair. Clearpoint and Intervention can be backed at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively and whilst they might not beat the fav, I think they're both decent E/W alternatives and you never know... 😉

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/02/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 2.20 Clonmel
  • 2.55 Clonmel
  • 3.47 Southwell
  • 4.00 Newcastle
  • 4.05 Clonmel

...from which I think I'll take a look at the 3.47 Southwell, 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard tapeta...

Bottom weight Hiatus was a winner last time out and Northern Spirit made the frame for the ninth time in his last eleven starts (inc 3 wins). Sluzewiec has yet to win any of five UK outings, but did win six starts ago in France, whilst Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Seven Brothers have failed to win any of their last 8, 12 and 11 races respectively.

Seven Brothers' bid to break his cold spell might not be helped by not having had a run for almost eight months, whilst Northern Spirit also returns from 20 weeks off the track. The rest of the field have all raced in the last month with She's Centimental turned back out just five days after her last run.

Evocative Spark and Sluzewiec are the only two in this field yet to win over this trip, whilst previous Southwell winners Gulliver, Billyjoh, She's Centimental and Hiatus are all course and distance winners and these are highlighted on Instant Expert...

...where Evocative Spark's numbers over the last couple of years haven't been great under today's conditions in general. Gulliver, Grenham Bay and Hiatus haven't won many on standard going and the latter two have struggled in this grade, as has She's Centimental, but she interests me with her four wins over today's trip. Sadly she has only made the frame once in her seven defeats at this trip and it is Northern Spirit who catches the eye on the place data...

...although he is shown as being some 11lbs higher than his last A/W win, but he is only 8lbs higher than his last turf win and has finished third in each of his last two outings, both off today's mark. He's drawn pretty much slap bang in the middle of the stalls in box 5 for a contest where it has been more favourable to be drawn in stall 7 or lower over the last couple of years...

Those same races have also suited horses keen to get on with things...

...making this draw/pace heat map less than surprising...

...where runners drawn mid to high with a hold up running style have really struggled. We know how this field have approached their last four outings...

...which sadly shows a distinct lack of early pace, suggesting that we might well get a falsely run race.

Summary

Sadly, I haven't picked a great race to analyse, which is the risk I take by doing the piece on a 'live' basis. My thoughts here are that Northern Spirit should be the best runner in the race, but has tended to find one or two a bit too good for him, especially off his current career high mark. He hasn't raced for over 20 weeks and all things considered, 7/2 is a little on the short side. Billyjoh is even shorter as the 13/8 favourite and that looks a bit tight based on his last run, so he's not for me.

That then does leave us with eight runners priced at 8/1 or bigger and there could well be some E/W action and whilst I'm probably going to sit this one out, the ones that I'd be interested would probably be She's Centimental and LTO course and distance winner Hiatus, who both opened up at 8/1 with bet365.

Racing Insights, Friday 09/02/24

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.40 Kempton
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 2.20 Bangor
  • 3.20 Bangor
  • 4.50 Kempton

...I was going to see if I could find myself an E/W selection or two in the North Wales National, but that's fallen by the wayside now and I'll switch attention to Master of Combat from the H4C report and the 4.07 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

This looks a really competitive affair for a Class 4 handicap and plenty will fancy their chances, but only top-weight Wadacre Gomez won last time out and he's two from three. Featured runner Master of Combat (winner of 3 from 7), Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars all had top three finishes on their last outings.

Law Supreme has failed to win any of his five starts in the UK and has now lost 8 in a row, whilst Buxted Too, Arcadian Nights and Light Up Our Stars are all on winless runs of nine, seven and seven races respectively and with Light Up Our Stars now stepping up in class, I'm not sure he's going to snap that cold spell.

Better news for the fast finishing pair Master of Combat and Ernie's Valentine, who both drop down a class as does Buxted Too who at five weeks since his last run, is actually the longest rested of the whole field. he has yet to win at either track or trip, but Master of Combat and Arcadian Nights are both course and distance winners, whilst Ernie's Valentine, the first-time tongue-tied Eagle Day and Light Up Our Stars have all already won over 1f shorter (1m½f) here at Wolverhampton and those course wins are highlighted below by Instant Expert...

Master of Combat's better form has come over slightly shorter trips, whilst Ernie's Valentine has struggled at both going/class. Arcadian Nights is a Class 5 runner in reality and his better Wolverhampton efforts are well over 2yrs ago. Hale End and Law Supreme both have full lines of red from a small sample size and Light Up Our Stars looks generally weak across the board, despite a 20% strike rate on standard going.

The place stats from those races above look like this...

...and if I was to split that in half, these would be the half dozen who look best on that data...

They're strung across the track in stalls 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 and 10, so if the draw stats show a lower half bias, that could be good for me. Let's check over the last 200 or so similar races...

Not exactly a low bias or much bias at all if truth be told, but those drawn highest have fared less well than the others, so that's not great for Ernie's Valentine from my half dozen and if recent performances are anything to go by, then he's a likely back marker in the early stages here...

...which is also far from ideal over a course and distance that has favoured the runners up with or just off the pace...

Summary

Based on the above and using my shortlisted half-dozen, the one I like best is the 5/1 (bet365 @ 5.25pm) Wadacre Gomez. He won last time out, is two from three, his yard is in good form, he scored well on IE and might well get a very easy/soft lead here. I also like featured horse Master of Combat, but his lack of early pace and the extended trip have dissuaded me from backing him to win this and at 7/1, he's no E/W play for me either, although he should make the frame.

Bet365 offer 4 places and 8/1 about Eagle Day, so that could well be a decent E/W bet, whilst I'm intrigued by the 20/1 offered about My Little Queen and I could well be tempted to have a couple of quid on that as an E/W option too. She's unlikely to win, but 20's looks far too big and the step up in trip should help her, as she has made the frame in half of her 16 races between 1m½f and 1m2f, winning three times.

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/02/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.05 Huntingdon
  • 1.30 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 6.35 Newcastle

...the best of which (on class/paper, at least) is the 2.25 Lingfield, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Only top-weight Bosh was a winner last time out, but both Aljari and Hieronymus finished third with the former having won three of his previous four. The latter won two starts ago, as Love de Vega and Mclean House (who is 3 from 5), whilst Charencey won three races ago. Only Baldomero is on a long losing run, having been beaten in each of his last 25 outings over a 23 month period. That said, he has finished in the first three home in 6 of his last 7, so all might not be lost even if his mark just won't come down.

He does, however take a drop in class here, but Hieronymus, Love de Vega and Mclean House are all up in class despite LTO defeats. All seven have raced in the last five weeks with bottom-weight Charencey turned back out after just four days rest. He, along with top-weight Bosh are the only two yet to win over this trip and o the four runners to have raced at this track previously, only Aljari has won here, scoring over course and distance on his sole visit back in June of last year, the first win of a 9-week hat-trick last summer.

Over the last couple of years on the A/W...

...Aljari has probably performed the best, but as shown above Baldomero has been more of a placer than a winner...

In fact, despite a run of 25 defeats, he has consistently made the frame and sometimes at decent odds nd has remained a viable E/W option in many of his races. That said, I can't back him to win here and off place form, I'm not over-excited about Hieronymus, Mclean House or Charencey unless there's something in the pace/draw stats to convince me otherwise.

If we go back over the last 200 or so (good sample size) similar races on this track, there's not much to suggest that the draw will have much effect...

...I suppose there's a slight advantage in the middle, because (a) the bend will be a little sharper for those drawn lower and (b) those drawn higher have a little further to run, but it's really not a huge draw bias. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish and there's a clear pattern to how those races above have unfolded with those setting the pace doing best of all...

That's not to say that hold-up can't/won't win here, but they're only half as likely as leaders to do so, which looks like far better news for Hieronymus, than it does for the likes of Charencey, based on the field's last three runs...

Summary

You can make a case for several here, but the one I like best is Bosh. He's coming into good form right now, having finished 321 in his last three and was still pulling late on in his win at Chelmsford last time out, suggesting the extra furlong here should suit him. He was far more comfortable than half a length might suggest, beating Admiral D, who had won at Class 2 off a mark of 87 not long ago. Bosh is only up 2lbs here and should go well again.

Aljari is probably my next best, a consistent performer on the A/W since the start of last year who can and does race prominently when called upon. he's till only 3lbs higher than his last in and should be there or thereabouts again today.

The 3pm odds don't give me a viable E/W option here...

...so I'll stick with those two above. Baldomero is a proven placer and Hieronymus might be afforded an easy lead and they'll be the main dangers to my 1-2 as far as I can see.

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/02/24

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.45 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Ffos Las
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...and it's the last of that trio that is the highest rated, so I'll focus on the 7.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

My immediate thoughts were that whilst this isn't a great race, it looks very competitive, so let's look at the card and take away what we already know.

Twilight Madness and Level Up both won last time out, but the latter is now up in class. Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were both runners-up LTO and both won three races ago. Top weight Rocking Ends drops in class and wears a visor for the first time as he aims to end a sequence of ten defeats after winning three of his first eight career starts. Crimson Sand also won three of his first eight, but is 0 from 17 since, but he is noted on the card as a fast finisher.

All seven have raced in the last five weeks and all have won over today's trip already with Pop Dancer our sole course and distance winner, whilst Crimson Sand's last win was on this track albeit over 6f back in August 2021. Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have fared in past races under similar conditions...

...and the verdict is that they've not quite set the world alight. My causes for concern above include Crimson Sand (going/course/distance), Dynamic Force (generally), Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (going/distance) and I've got to hope that the place form stacks up better than the above...

...which, in fairness, it does to an extent. I've still concerns over Dynamic Force generally, Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (class), though and the latter is now rated some 10lbs higher than his last win.  Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up score best above and they're spread across the stalls in boxes 1, 2, 4 & 7 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn lower in the past...

...but let's not beat about the bush here, this is 5f at Chelmsford and the draw plays second fiddle to the pace setup and this is how those 180+ races above has been won...

...where the basic premise is to get out quickly and stay out as long as you can and if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by, an 18th successive defeat is on the cards for Crimson Sand...

Summary

Twilight Madness, Level Up, Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were the pick on form with Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up the takeaways from our free feature, Instant Expert. The pace profiles effectively wrote Crimson Sand off, leaving us with Twilight Madness and Level Up ticking all three boxes (form/IE/pace). Both won last time out and I fancy both to have a good chance of making the frame with Twilight Madness my marginal pick of the two.

With six runners priced between 9/2 and 7/1 at 4.45pm, only Rocking Ends' 10/1 ticket is worth considering as an E/W option, but he'd be well down my list of options here and the role of market outsider is probably right.

You can make a case for any of the other six here, it's that competitive, but I'd suggest the 9/2 Twilight Madness to beat the 5/1 Level Up.

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/01/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.35 Southwell
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 3.25 Gowran Park
  • 4.45 Newcastle

...the highest rated of which is the 3.10 Huntingdon, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ Mares' Listed Chase over a right-handed 2m4f on good ground...

All nine of these have won at least one of their last seven outings with top weight Pink legend winning four times, but she didn't win last time out. Mayhem Mya, Plenty of Time and Sacre Coeur did though, as did Brides Hill who comes here aiming to complete a hat-trick.

Eight of the field are carrying 11st 2lbs here with the 137-rated Lady Adare best off at the weights, but Pink Legend is rated 8lbs higher than Lady Adare, but carries just 4lbs more, whilst Brides Hill is rated a further 8lbs better than Pink Legend and carries 2lbs less, so she's effectively 10lbs to 34lbs well-in with her rivals here.

Sacre Coeur was a Class 2 winner last time out whilst Mayham Mya, Plenty of Time and Midnight Mary all raced at Class 3, so all four are up in class today. The latter is just one of two previous course winners (but only 3 have raced here in total!), having won a Class 5 3m1½f hurdle here back in March 2021, whilst the other, Pink Legend is a course and distance winner by virtue of winning this race in 2022. Carole's Pass and Mayhem Mya are the only ones yet to win over a similar trip to this one...

There's not a great deal of data in Instant Exert above, but Pink Legend is certainly the eyecatcher with her 5 Class 1 chase successes and whilst her rivals haven't quite been as successful, the place stats show that most of them  have acquitted themselves quite well in this grade...

...with La Renommee doing particularly well over this trip. The fields' most recent outings suggest that the likes of Midnight Mary, Pink Legend and Sacre Coeur will be the ones setting the tempo early doors...

...with hat-trick seeking Brides Hill being held-up, but past similar races here at Huntingdon haven't shown any real pace bias...

...as I'd like to see a bigger dataset for mid-division runners before ruling them out. In a race like this where I've no draw or pace bias to work with and Instant Expert hasn't really narrowed things down, I find that the cream generally rises to the top naturally.

Summary

If we're not getting much from Instant Expert from this race by means of whittling the field down, then we refer back to the card and form. And for me, the best two horses in the race are 2022's winner Pink Legend and Brides Hill. The latter comes here on a hat-trick and is a good 10lbs well in at the weights with the former, so I'm going to agree with the 4.40pm market and suggest that the 6/5 Brides Hill beats the 9/2 Pink Legend.

Sadly these bets don't excite me, so I'm looking for double-digit odds runners as possible E/W bets and my gaze falls on the 11/1 Sacre Coeur and the 12/1 La Renommee. The former has progressed nicely over fences, finishing 1131 in her four efforts last year and could well run on for a place, as indeed could the latter who was a Listed class runner-up last time out and has a great record over similar trips with 3 wins and 3 further places from just 7 attempts at 2m4f/2m4½f.

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/01/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Wincanton
  • 1.20 Chelmsford
  • 1.35 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Fairyhouse

No jumps racing on Thursday and the sole remaining free race is a poor-looking Class 6 affair. In fact the whole Chelmsford card consists of 2 x Class 5 and 4 x Class 6. There's an evening meeting at Southwell, though, and this has 2 x Class 5 and 5 x Class 6 plus the race I'm going to look at : the 6.30 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...

The consistent (six top 3 finishes on the bounce) Qaasid was a runner-up last time out and bottom-weight Tiger Beetle was third on his last run, but we've no LTO winners and three of these (Barenboim, Howth & Furzig) have lost at least seven consecutive outings.

Top-weight Valsad makes his yard debut for Jamie Osborne and drops down a class to run here, as do Barenboim, Queen of Ipanema (1st time in cheekpieces), Cavern Club and Furzig. The fast-finishing bottom-weight Tiger Beetle steps up in class, though, as does Tenerife Sunshine, whilst Haveyoumissedme is noted as another fast finisher.

Valsad and Cavern Club have both been rested for just over three months and it's well over six months since Qaasid was turned out. The remainder have, however, all raced in the last month or so. If we go back to Qaasid, we see that he's our sole course and distance winner, but Valsad has also won at this track, landing a £52k, Class 2, 1m4f handicap three starts ago, He has also won over a similar trip to this one elsewhere, as have Barenboim, Cavern Club and Tenerife Sunshine.

Past relevant form is highlighted via Instant Expert, of course...

...and as seems to be the case right now, it's a pretty mixed bag. Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate, of course, but Qaasid and Sonnerie Power have both won just 1 in 7 on standard going. Barenboim has struggled to win at Class 3, whilst this trip hasn't managed to get Tiger Beetle or Howth to win any of 22 combined starts, whilst Qaasid is just 2 from 13.

We do know, however, that Qaasid is a bit better than the above stats might suggest, as he's a consistent/regular placer as shown by the place stats, where he suddenly looks like a force to be reckoned with...

...although his consistency is pushing him up the weights and he's now 8lbs higher than his last win and Cavern Club also finds himself in a similar predicament at 9lbs above his last win.

The tapeta track is relatively new here at Southwell and over similar distances with a similar field size, there doesn't to be much (if any) advantage to be gained from the draw...

...as leaders tend to win more often, but make the frame less often, whilst from a pace perspective it has paid to avoid front-runners...

...which might not be good news for Valsad if he forced to take up the running in the absence of a true front-runner...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests high-drawn hold-up horses have done well, but not as well as the low-drawm prominent horse...

...and if we translate this data to our racecard...

...Queen of Ipanema is probably our high-drawn hold-up type and Qaasid our low-drawn prominent runner.

Summary

Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate and scoresd well on Instant Expert and on pace/draw and at 8/1 with Hills (5.45pm Wednesday), I think she's a good E/W prospect, especially with four places being available.

Qaasid is a regular placer who scored well on the place side of Instant Expert. He also fills the pace/draw role as low-drawn prominent and whilst he's not a regular winner, he's a reliable sort to make the frame and had he been a little longer than 13/2, I've have been tempted into another E/W bet.

As for a winner, you could make a case for a handful of these and none really stand out for me, so I'll leave that well alone, but leave you with the thought that the 9/1 Caver Club might be one for the frame too.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/01/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.55 Southwell
  • 1.00 Clonmel
  • 2.20 Fontwell
  • 3.05 Catterick

Neither UK option above enthuses me too much, but we do have an interesting looking race to cover in the 2.30 Catterick, an 8-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on soft ground...

Bushypark won this race on heavy ground by 3.5 lengths last year and comes into having won last time out, as do Court At Slip and Crixus's Escape. Court At Slip has won three of his last six and Bushypark is two from six, whilst Ladronne and Glittering Love are both winless in ten starts and Shadows In The Sky is a six-race maiden.

Bushypark and Ladronne both raced at Class 3 last time out, but the other six all step up at least one class with the bottom two on the card, Crixus's Escape and Shadows In The Sky both making a double step up. Bushypark and Shadows In The Sky are the only two runners without any headgear or tongue ties and half of this field are already 10yrs old or more.

The entire field has raced in the last two to four weeks, so all should be race-ready. Bushypark's success in this race last year not only makes the sole course and distance winner, but also the only one to have won at this trip. Elsewhere, only Ladronne has won on this track and that was a 3m1f chase way back in mid-November 2022 and was the last time he won a race (he's now a pound lighter that run).

More race-relevant stats can be found via feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where last year's winner Bushypark is the early eye-catcher. No Cruise Yet and Glittering Love have decent soft ground records and the former has also won a couple of stayers' chases, whilst the latter's 0 from 9 at Class 3 is a bit of a concern. Court At Slip is largely untested under these conditions, but did win over 3m3½f on soft ground last March.

From a place perspective...

Bushypark again catches the eye off a fairly small sample size, but I'm drawn to No Cruise Yet on that data, because of the larger number of runs. The issue there seems to be a record of just one placed finish from four at Class 3, which would be a concern to be if I didn't that he'd had three races at Class 2 and finished 132 in those three, so he shouldn't be outclassed here.

This pair are highly likely to be up with the pace, especially Bushypark, who doesn't seem to run any other way if his last four runs are anything to go by...

...and the report of last year's race said..."jumped well throughout, made all, ridden and ran on"...

He is however, some 5lbs higher than his last/highest winning mark and he concede chunks of weight all round, but our pace analyser suggests his front-running style is the way to go here.

Summary

There's a lot to like about Bushypark's chances of winning this race for a second time on the bounce, but I fear that fellow pace-maker No Cruise Yet might well stalk and ultimately outstay him.

If these two do battle and take too much out of each other, that could open the door for the third horse on the pace chart, Court At Slip to get involved too.

This could well be a fairly tight contest as 3m6f soft ground chases go, but these are the three I'd want to focus on and if pushed to put one slightly ahed of the others, I think I'd side with No Cruise Yet.

All three are sadly sub-6/1 in the 5.30pm market, so I've no E/W selection today.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/01/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 11.45 Lingfield
  • 12.58 Hereford
  • 2.28 Hereford
  • 6.10 Newcastle

It's a shockingly bad day of racing on Thursday and I'm struggling to be enthused about it if truth be told, but the show must go on! The highest-rated races are flour Class 4 affairs, three of which are maidens, so we'll tackle the one that isn't! That's the 2.58 Hereford, a 9-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on soft ground that might be a little better in places...

Not much in the way of recent winning form from this group, but the 11yr old veteran Len Brennan won five races ago, Langley Hundred won seven races ago and Honey I'm Good won six and seven races back, plus this sole mare in the race has won three of her four starts over fences.

Hardy Boy is winless in eight, but has been been a runner-up beaten by just a neck in each of his last two, whilst Invincible Nao, Inflexible and Len Brennan all finished third last time out, although the latter hasn't raced for 15 months since that last run and closer inspection shows he was third of just three, beaten by 27 lengths and he was last of five in his penultimate race, beaten by 55 lengths.

Those last two efforts, the lay-of and his age are more than enough to put me off Len Brennan, even if he is making a yard debut for Anthony Charlton and is one of just two winners over a similar trip to this one. Honey I'm Good is the other previous distance winner and she steps up a class here, as do the bottom three in the weights, Shot Boii, Paseo and Royal Act.

We know that Len Brennan has been off the track since early October 2022 and has only raced twice in the last 21 months, but all of his rivals have had an outing in the last five weeks with Paseo turned back out just five days after a 43 length defeat at Taunton, when only 6th of 9. I'm not sure a step up in class is the right move here less than a week later.

Feature of the day is, of course, Instant Expert and it shows how the field have performed in previous races under similar conditions...

...and that's a pretty bleak picture with the exception, of course, of the mare Honey I'm Good. I think we're going to need some place data to help us out here!

That's a little more useful with Hardy Boy, Langley Hundred and Inflexible at least adding some green to the reds! Royal Act looks out of his depth and I think he now joins Len Brennan and Paseo on the sidelines, leaving me with six to consider for a race that appears to reward front-runners and those who race fairly prominently...

Unfortunately, we don't have many who like to set the pace here, aside from Royal Act, if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...although Honey I'm Good and Shot Boii both have two 3+ scores in their last four outings and Hardy Boy was an unlucky pacemaker last time out.

Summary

None of these really make a forceful case to be backed as a winner, but Hardy Boy is the most consistent of them all and having been beaten by just a neck in each of his last two starts, he's certainly knocking on the door and would be my tentative pick at 9/2 (Hills & Bet365 @ 4.40pm).

Elsewhere, I'd probably look for some E/W value and if Honey I'm Good (the Instant Expert eyecatcher) puts her modest hurdles form behind her now she's back over fences (3 wins from 4 in this sphere), she could be dangerous at 9/1, whilst Shot Boii would also be of interest at 7's, but I'd probably want/need him to drift a little to become an E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/12/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.40 Leopardstown
  • 1.05 Catterick
  • 1.50 Leopardstown
  • 3.15 Limerick

Now, I don't really go for Irish races and the Catterick race above is a maiden hurdle, again something I'm not keen on, so I'm going to go a little off-piste and head North-East for the 5.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

The Turpinator and Jahidin both won last time out and have both won two of their last five outings, as has Sir Maxi. Al Farabi has a win and two places from his three career starts and now makes a handicap debut off a mark of 82. Gobi Sunset won three races ago and One More Dream scored four back, but Scottish Summit, Illusionist, Swiss Ace and Alexander James are all winless in six although Illusionist has made the frame in three of those six, including over course and distance here last time out off today's mark.

Sir Maxi is noted as a fast finisher, but he's up a class here today, as are Al Farabi and Jahidin, but top weight and veteran Scottish Summit drops down two levels, but is a pound worse off than his recent three length C&D defeat nineteen days ago. That's about how long most of these have rested since their last run with all bar Al Farabi having raced in the last 12-20 days. Mind you, at 34 days off, Al Farabi shouldn't be rusty!

Illusionist is the only one of this bunch yet to win at either track or trip, Al Farabi hasn't won (or even raced!) here at Newcastle and Alexander James has yet to win over 7f. Of the other seven with wins at both 7f and at Newcastle, only Scottish Summit and One More Dream are without a course and distance, as their wins here were over a mile and 6f respectively. Feature of the day Instant Expert is where we'll see all the relevant stats from previous races...

...where Jahidin is the eye-catcher with the sole line of green. The Turpinator and Sir Maxi also have some good numbers to their credit. Gobi Sunset's record at going, class and distance would make him a highly unlikely winner here and although Illusionist's stats aren't good at all, he is a regular placer. I don't see him as a winner here, but his recent efforts on this track keep him in contention for the minor honours.

He's actually drawn in stall 2 with only Scottish Summit keeping him away from the rail and unusually for a straight run on an artificial surface, we do have a bit of a draw bias and it doesn't help Scottish Summit or Illusionist...

Those races above, as with many straight 7f contests, have often been won by horses showing early speed...

...with prominent runners and leaders winning 52.9% of the races from just 44.8% of the runners. This, based on this field's most recent efforts point to good starts for Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator...

Summary

Pace often wins the race over a straight 7f and Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator look like the ones who'll be setting the early tempo. I'm happy to rule Gobi Sunset out of the equation based on form and Instant Expert, where he has been shown to struggle in similar races.

This leaves me with a three-horse shortlist of Al Farabi, Jahidin and The Turpinator and all three could win this. Jahidin was the immediate eye-catcher from Instant Expert, but he's up 2lbs and one class after only winning by a nose last time out.

The Turpinator is only up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success at class, course and distance recently and he was staying on well at the end, so I think he has a marginally better chance than Jahidin.

Al Farabi carries 5lbs more than Jahidin and he was a beaten odds-on favourite last time out a full length behind Guy Fawkes who has since been beaten by over three lengths at odds as short as 1/5. Al Farabi is hardly thrown in at the weights here and although I expect it to be tight between this trio, I think The Turpinator might be the most likely winner.

The early (3.45pm) market was formed by bet365 and they go...

...and with only the bottom four priced beyond 8/1, I'll not be having an E/W play here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/12/2023

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.08 Southwell
  • 3.15 Ffos Las

I'm not particularly keen on any of those, so I'll focus on the day's highest rated race, the 4.10 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Clarendon House and Clearpoint both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three and now makes a Southwell debut. Exalted Angel and Alligator Alley were both placed third on their last outings, but the former hasn't won any of his last 22 races! Elsewhere Fine Wine and May Sonic are winless in eight and nine races respectively.

Exalted Angel will hope that a drop in class (3rd of 10 in a Listed race LTO) is halepful towards snapping his cold spell, but Clearpoint and Bedford Flyer both step up in class, despite the latter coming home 7th of 9 last time out. He does now wear a visor for the first time, though.

Fine Wine is coming back from a three-month break here, but the remainder have all been out in the last four to six weeks. Clarendon House and Clearpoint both race at Southwell for the first time, but both have already won at least once over this trip, whilst all five of their rivals are former course and distance winners, as shown below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Alligator Alley is the immediate eyecatcher. Fine Wine has a good set of numbers, but defeat in a couple of valuable Class 2 races prevents him having a line of green. Clarendon House and Clearpoint are both relatively inexperienced on the A/W, whilst Exalted Angel & May Sonic look a little out of their depth here, a though backed up by the place stats...

...which suggest we should focus on Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Alligator Alley and possibly Clearpoint. This quartet are drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over a straight 5 furlongs, so you wouldn't expect them to have an advantage from being drawn low to middle, other than Alligator Alley possibly having the rail to keep him straight, but let's check the stats from previous past races...

These do suggest there's little in the draw from a win perspective, but there does seem to be a small advantage being drawn low with regards to making the frame, as shown below in the stall-by-stall analysis...

...but I suspect that, as with most straight 5f sprints, pace will win the race and here at Southwell, those races above have mainly been won by those setting the pace, with those chasing often running on for a place...

...and this might be where the previously heralded Alligator Alley might run into trouble...

He'll have the rail, but there's a risk he gets cuts across by those making a quicker start.

Summary

I do like Alligator Alley here, but I'm concerned that his path might be blocked if he doesn't ping the gates and his past form suggests that he won't do that here. He still looks good for a top three finish (a handful of bookies are paying five places), but at a best price of 11/4, I can't be going E/W with him. Clearpoint is also 11/4 and he's 3 from 4 on the A/W including 2 from 2 on tapeta. He made all and ran on well tin by almost two lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out and that performance looks like being the one to beat here, so it would be Clearpoint for me.

All of which leaves me with Fine Wine and Clarendon House and both of these are more than capable of making the frame. The latter could well go on to win and is reasonably well priced at 4/1. As for Fine Wine, he's far from my idea of a winner and would need some luck to make the frame based on the qualities of the other trio I've mentioned, but if one of them falters, 8/1 E/W (3 places) with bet365 might be useful.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Thursday for Friday's racing), as I'm out on a Christmas jolly, but I'll be back with you on Friday for my last pre-Christmas post.

Racing Insights, Monday 18/12/23

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Plumpton
  • 2.55 Musselburgh
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

...of which, the first is the highest-rated on a day of fairly mediocre standard racing across three fixtures. The race is the 2.10 Plumpton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground...

Bottom-weight Guguss Collonges brings the best recent results to the table as our only LTO winner and has won two of his last three, as also has Tip Top Mountain, but was 7th here over course and distance recently. Sublime Heights is 2 from 5 and Henschke won two races ago, but half of the field are winless in five (or more!) starts.

All of these have had a run in the last six weeks, so all should be race-ready. The top five in the weights are all dropping down from Class 3, whilst the two at the bottom of the card/weights are both up a class here. Movethechains is winless in six, so his yard have decided to apply blinkers for the first time and have installed a 10lb claimer to lighten the load.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Henschke, Special Acceptance & Uallrightharry) have already scored over course and distance, whilst Guguss Collonges has won a 2m4f chase here previously. Milan Bridge (from legendary sire Milan) won a 3m2f hurdle at Hereford back in March 2022, but Movethechains and Almazhar Garde have won at neither track nor trip, although they have both landed events at slightly shorter distances as shown on Instant Expert below...

...where Tip Top Mountain is the immediate eye-catcher and top-weight I See You Well only appears to be let down by his 1 from 10 record on good to soft, which is strange, as he's 5 from 18 on Good and 2 from 8 on Soft, so you'd have expected him to have fared better on good to soft? Sublime Heights has less experience under these conditions, but has fared well enough whilst Movethechains should relish the trip on good to soft ground.

Monday's free feature is access to the pace profile for all races, showing how horses have run in their last few outings and for this race, it looks like this...

...with the in-form Guguss Collonges and Instant Expert eyecatcher Tip Top Mountain showing as confirmed front-runners, whilst I'd expect Special Acceptance to be held up in a race that hasn't been particularly kind to front-runners in the past...

Summary

When assessing recent form allied to the collateral relevant results via Instant Expert and also the pace data above, we're getting a mixed message.

On form, I'd want to be with Guguss Collonges, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and maybe Henschke, whilst Instant Expert suggested Tip Top Mountain, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Movethechains, whilst only Special Acceptance and I See You Well look like being held up.

So, none of them tick all three boxes, but Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and I See You Well feature twice, but to be honest with you, you can make a case for most of the field here, so I won't be having a bet.

If I was, though, I'd probably take Tip Top Mountain to win (5/1 with Hills at 3.45pm) and maybe a small E/W play on Sublime Heights (currently 10's), but aside from Milan Bridge and Uallrightharry (a pair I'm not keen on), any of these could win/place in what looks a competitive affair.

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/12/2023

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.20 Taunton
  • 2.20 Naas
  • 3.40 Warwick
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

To be honest, none of those five make much appeal to me and the day's highest-rated UK race might well be a Listed contest, but small-field Novice chases don't float my boat either. Next best is the day's sole Class 2 race, so we'll head there and take a look at the 8.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Top-weight Tacarib Bay was a winner last time out, as were Fantastic Fox and Desert Order who both seek to complete hat-tricks, but the latter might need the run as he makes just a second handicap appearance more than 14 months after he last raced. Excel Power and Rhythm N Rock are the only ones winless in their last six (7 & 9 respectively, actually) races.

Despite winning a Listed race at Newcastle four weeks ago, top-weight Tacarib Bay actually drops down in class here, but the bottom four on the card/weights, Rhythm N Rock, Batemans Bay, hat-trick seeking Fantastic Fox and Lord Bertie all step up from Class 3 with the latter making a yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having left William Haggas during the 12-week break since his last outing.

Aside from the obvious 423 day absence of Desert Order (he has been gelded in that time), only Diderot at 189 days has been away longer than Lord Bertie with the other six runners all having been out at least once in the last four to eight weeks.

Class-dropper Tacarib Bay and the returning Desert Order have both yet to win over a mile unlike their seven rivals, of which three, Diderot, Excel Power and the fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (who doesn't love a bit of alliteration?), are all former course and distance winners.

Despite winning a Listed race recently, Tacarib Bay shows up on Instant Expert with a 0 from 3 record at Class 2...

...but his rivals have hardly been prolific in this grade and I don't think he's going to be outclassed here. Diderot's Class 2 record is even worse, but Helm Rock and Fantastic Fox look well suited albeit from a small sample size of races, whilst Excel Power has more experience and wins to his name.

As Instant Expert is today's guest feature, we'll have a quick glance at the place stats, but they don't really help to separate the runners for us...

Here at Chelmsford over a mile the pace angle has been more of an issue than the draw, but both are important of course. What we have seen in similar past races is that the lower a horse has been drawn the greater its chances of placing and ultimately winning, whilst it's well versed about this track being a bit of a speedway where early pace is amply rewarded. A slight anomaly appears on the pace/draw heat map, though, with the mid-drawn leader faring best of all, one assumes it's to do with not having as sharp a turn to make, somewhat similar to a Formula 1 'racing line' through the apex of the bend...

The only issue we have with this field and the above data, is that there are no real out and out front-running types here, based on their most recent efforts...

...but I suspect that Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie from stalls 1, 3 and 5 will try to lead the way home from an early point, which makes Fantastic Fox's recent course and distance win very interesting, as the race report said..."held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, soon made headway and switched left, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well..." and all that came from stall 10 of 10!

Summary

Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie look like providing the early pace, but the former makes an A/W debut coming off a lengthy absence, the second-named hasn't won for over a year and the latter also makes an A/W debut and had two indifferent runs in September when last seen.

What I think will happen is that they'll drag the wider-drawn horses along and inadvertently set themselves up as targets for the in-form pair of Tacarib Bay and Fantastic Fox. This pair look most likely to succeed in my eyes and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with Frankel's fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (sorry!).  My 1-2 are best priced at 9/2 and 5/1 with the returning Desert Order a short-looking 2/1 or 9/4.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, Lord Bertie might be able to hold on for a place and be a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst feature of the day Instant Expert says that Helm Rock might be better than a 10/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/12/23

Apologies for the on-off nature of this column over the least week or so, I'm currently cruising the Caribbean (part of my travel agent job!) and on some days the wifi/internet is good and on some days it isn't. Normal service will be resumed next Tuesday, but until then, I'll post every day that I'm able to, so let's crack on!

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 11.12 Southwell
  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 2.05 Wincanton
  • 2.57 Clonmel
  • 3.07 Southwell
  • 3.15 Wincanton

...and I think I'll look at the last of that list, the 3.15 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m1f on soft ground that is already heavy in places...

Take Your Time and Not Sure both won last time out and the latter has three wins and two places from his last five outings, whilst Eceparti comes here on a hat-trick after recent back to back wins at Chepstow. The rest of the field bar Striking A Pose and Edeiffs Elton have all won at least once in their last six efforts, but this pair are winless in twelve and eight respectively.

Both 'cold' horses do at least drop down a class here, as does Harlem Soul and Striking A Pose will hopefully benefit from a recent wind op. I say recent, because he only raced seven weeks ago, as did Harlem Soul. Nearly Perfect has been off the track for six months, but he's the only one who hasn't raced in the last seven weeks.

Nearly Perfect is, however, just one of two former course and distance winners in the field with Edeiffs Elton being the other, although Striking A Pose has won a 2m5½f hurdle here before and Harlem Soul has landed a pair of 2m4f chases and a 1m7½f hurdle on this track. Elsewhere, the top three in the weights, Take Your Time, Raddon Top & Not Sure have all won at similar trips to this one.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, of course and it looks like this today...

...with Striking A Pose looking most vulnerable. Take Your Time and Raddon Top are both heavy ground winners, so they'll not be too concerned if the rain continues to fall, whilst most of the field have won at this grade. Nearly Perfect is an interesting one on paper with a full line of green and running off a mark 12lbs lower than his last win.

The caveats here are that he hasn't raced for six months and has only ran five times since winning over course and distance here on Boxing Day 2020. He did, however, finish 1311 in his four starts that year, staring and ending the year with CD wins here on soft ground, including one at Class 3.

So, if he's tuned up and ready to go, he might be able to surprise a few of his rivals here and the odds are that he's likely to want to get on with things, if the evidence of his last few races are anything to go by...

He looks like he'll have company, though, in the shape of top weight LTO winner Take Your Time and the fellow CD winner Edeiffs Elton. Our Pace Analyser suggests that this is a successful tactic to adopt, based on past similar contests...

Eceparti has also raced keenly in his last two races, so there's a good chance he'll want to join in upfront and we could have some decent early pace for soft/heavy ground stayers' chase, which might well burn a few out before the finish.

Summary

The one I think I like the most is top weight Take Your Time. He's in good nick, scored well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race. He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills (the only book open right now) and I think that's fair.

He might well have been shorter but for Eceparti being installed as the early 11/8 fav. He's  running really well, of course, having won his last two, but he looks short in the market for me, especially as he hasn't the best record of this field on going/trip. He might well win, but 11/8 makes no appeal to me.

I don't think there's a proper E/W bet for me here, but if he's ready for it, Nearly Perfect might run better than his early 12/1 ticket might suggest.