Tag Archive for: irish derby trends and tips

Sat TV Trends: 25th June 2022

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - Here at Geegez, we've got all the TV races covered from a trends angle - use these trends to help find the best profiles of previous winners.

Did you know? 16 of the last 20 Northumberland Plate winners came from stalls 14 or lower and were aged 6 or younger.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/19 – Never raced at the track before
16/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
15/19 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
12/19 – Came from stall 5 or lower
11/19 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
11/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 5
7 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

2.40 - House Of Cavani Menswear Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

10/11 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/11 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/11 - Won 3 or more times
8/11 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/11 - Placed favourites
8/11 - Rated 100+
5/11 - Had run at the track before
4/11 - Winning favourites
3/11 - Ran at York last time out
3/11 - Trained by David Simcock
2/11 - Ridden by William Buick
Universal Order won this race in 2020
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.15 – House Of Cavani Menswear Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

18/20 – Won over 7f before
18/20 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
17/20 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/20 – Aged 5 or younger
12/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/20 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/20 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/20 – Unplaced favourites
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 11 runnings)
2/20 - Trained by Henry Candy (2 of last 3 runnings)
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Pertemps Network Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
5/5 - Had won over 6f before
5/5 - Won between 2-5 times
5/5 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
4/5 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
4/5 - Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
4/5 - Placed favourites
4/5 - Rated between 96 and 99 (inc)
3/5 - Unplaced last time out
3/5 - Had run at the track before
2/5 - Came from stalls 10
1/5 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 9/1


2.25 – Pertemps Network
Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

19/20 – Had won over 6f before
18/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/20 – Unplaced last time out
15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
13/20 – Yet to win a Group race
12/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/20 – Aged 5 or older
8/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/20 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

2.55 - Jenningsbet Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/6 – Ran in the last 2 months
6/6 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/6 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
5/6 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
5/6 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 - Aged 4 years-old
3/6 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/6 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/6 - Winning favourites
2/6 – Won last time out
2/6 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 8/1

3.30 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

19/20  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
19/20 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/20 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/20 – Aged 6 or younger
16/20 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/20 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/20 – Won by a National Hunt yard
6/20 – Won their previous race
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/20 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 14 winners)
2/20 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 7)
1/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Five of the last 16 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 10
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

 

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