Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2014

As much as I was disappointed with the handling of our selection on Friday, I was delighted by the way Graeme Gibbons got Tarooq up on the line to snatch Saturday's race by a head.

It was a perfectly timed ride up the rail to just about get there at cracking odds of 5/1 to make the week's figures suddenly look a whole lot better.

Sunday is a bit bereft of pertinent stats, but I might just have something in the...

4.50 Fontwell:

Where I'm backing Proud Times at 11/4 BOG.

Proud Times is trained by Ali Brewer, a trainer who struggled in her early days, failing to record a single victory from her first 23 runners spread over a 15 month period to June 2013. However, in the last eight months, she has been in great from from a small string of horses, saddling up 12 winners from 57 runners, no mean feat for one of racing's lesser lights.

This recent 21% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 21.5pts so far, a figure equivalent to 37.7% of stakes invested. The bulk of the profits (17.2pts ) have come in hurdle events, where she is 5/21 in those last 8 months.

Incidentally, all 12 winners have come from the 36 runners priced between 13/8 and 12/1 with that 1-in-3 strike rate generating some 42.5pts profits (+118.1% ROI), with today's selection Proud Times being the stable star, winning five times from thirteen.

Not only has he won five of his last thirteen races, he comes here boasting a record of four wins from his last five races and has a win and a runner-up finish from his two efforts on heavy ground to date.

He will be ridden by Jack Doyle today, who has already steered the horse to victory on three of the six occasions they've been partnered together, whilst Jack's record on Miss Brewer's sub 8/1 runners is five wins from nine for 14.73pts profit.

It doesn't look a particularly strong race here and the incidental stats are enough to point me towards a 1pt win bet on Proud Times at  11/4 BOG. The price is quite widely available and I've gone with BetVictor for this one, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Fontwell:

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Here is today's racecard!

Noel Fehily appointed stable jockey to Emma Lavelle

It was all change last weekend at Emma Lavelle’s Cottage Stables in the village of Hatherden near Andover when Noel Fehily replaced Jack Doyle as stable jockey. The move was something of a surprise as Fehily has filled that position for Charlie Mann for the last 14 years. Read more

Sat TV Trends: 28th Jan 2012

Did you know that the last eight Sky Bet Chase winners ALL carried 11-2 or less? Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends that matter ahead of this weekend's LIVE C4 action. Read more

TV Trends: Sat 14th Jan 2012

Is 6 The Magic Number In The Lanzarote?

Did you know that a 6 year-old has won Saturday’s Lanzarote Hurdle 12 times since 1992? Andy Newton gives you all the trends that matter for the weekend’s LIVE C4 races....... Read more

Stat of the Day: 30th Dec 2011

Stat of the Day: 30th December 2011

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

There was little joy for ourselves or Tony Carroll yesterday at Doncaster, we seem to have a hit a dry spell.
Today we're heading South West for a crack at a Class 4 Novices Hurdle over 2m 3.5f. 13 runners are currently scheduled to go to post for the...

12.40 Taunton

Emma Lavelle's recent record at Taunton is fantastic: 8 wins from 29 attempts (27.6% S/R) since 2008 and her yard is in decent form at present with 5 wins from her last 16 runners. The ever-improving Jack Doyle gets most of the rides for her stable and he, too, is in good nick with 3 winner from 9 rides over the last fortnight.

The two team up today in a couple of races: Gleann Eagas goes in the 1.45, but we're focusing upon Captain Sunshine in the opener.

Captain Sunshine is related to some decent winning jumpers and made a good start when finishing 3rd on debut to Montbazon: a horse never out of the frame in all 5 starts. Our selection looks likely to improve for that initial outing and looks a decent prospect in this opening race.

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.40 Taunton.