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Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

Thursday's Result :

2.50 Exeter : Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG PU at 5/2 (Chased leaders, weakened before 5 out, behind when pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's selection runs in the...

1.20 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has proven to useful and versatile in his doszen outings to date, winning one of his two bumpers and finishing as runner-up in the other. He ten raced 8 times over hurdles winning once and making the frame on four other occasions, before a recent switch to the larger obstacles.

He has finished second in both chases starts to date, both at this Class 3 level and over 2m on soft ground, notably staying on well last time out when getting within 1.75 lengths of the in-form Sir Valentino 16 days ago. The latter has since stepped up to Class 2 and won again as recently as Wednesday, suggesting Ozzy Thomas' effort last time was a decent one.

Other than this collateral form, he has the benefit of being trained by Henry Oliver, one of that rare breed of trainers who is profitable to follow blindly after more than 250 runners. More precisely, 277 runners to date, from which there has already been 44 winners (15.9% SR) and profits of 106.7pts at an ROI of 38.5% from level stakes betting : impressive stuff!

There are, however, certain angles to explore that would maximise return from a smaller number of bets, for example...

  • male runners are 40/247 (16.2% SR) for 121.3pts (+49.1% ROI)
  • those running at 2m to 2m 4.5f are 43/226 (19% SR) for 153.5pts (+67.9% ROI)
  • handicappers are 41/204 (20.1% SR) for 81.6pts (+40% ROI)
  • those racing 16 to 45 days since their last run are 30/151 (19% SR) for 141.7pts (+93.9% ROI)

And a simple to follow Henry Oliver micro-system? Go on then, it's almost Christmas! 😀

Henry Oliver's male handicappers racing over 2 miles to 2m 4.5f, 11 to 45 days since their last outing are 29/107 (27.1% SR) for 117.3pts (+109.6% ROI). Today's jockey Jaems Davies is 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 67.6pts (+37% ROI) from those 107 runners.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.10pm?

A 1pt win bet on Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG with any one of at least eight firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stonefield Flyer was a comfortable winner by the best part of four lengths yesterday, as once again Joe Fanning proved how good he is at reading the pace of a race.

It also meant that, for only the second time since inception, that we've now hit five winners on the bounce and thanks to Newcastle's abandonment earlier this week, we're now unbeaten in a whole week.

My only minor gripe about yesterday was the price taken and then the price received. I took 9/4 BOG at 7.40am, but by the time I came to update the blog, a non-runner has knocked me back to 63/40 and the best price available was 5/4, which is now the price we'll declare at.

Mind you, we still made 1.25pts on a day where our runner was a 4/5 winner and as you all know, I'm more than happy to take over 156% of SP every day!

Although we had an easy win on the sand yesterday, my recent rich vein of form has come from jumps racing in testing conditions, so we're now heading to the South West for a crack at the...

3.25 Taunton:

Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2 miles plus a half furlong on heavy ground and my selection is the 6yr old gelding Whispering Harry, who I've just backed at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.

His trainer is Henry Oliver...

...who might not be a familiar name to some of you, but he's one that I look out for, not that he has too many runners! He had his first ever runner in February 2013 and has been profitable to follow since.

In his short 23 month training career so far, he has already had 24 winners from 181 runners for a strike rate of 13.3% for level stakes profits of 62.4pts at an ROI of 34.5%. In handicap contests, he fares even better, with 22 winners from 121 (18.2% SR) for 39.6pts (+32.7% ROI).

Henry's yard is just South of Worcester, an area notorious for flooding in recent years and I'm guessing that his horses are trained in muddy conditions, as his record in handicaps on soft/heavy ground are 10 winners from 42 (23.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+35.2% ROI) with a fantastic 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on heavy ground.

When his handicappers have been sent off in the narrow 2/1 to 4/1 banding, they have a 40% strike rate (14/35) with the resultant 22.1pts profit equating to 63.2% of stakes. These runners are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 10.7pts (+152.9% ROI) on heavy.

James Davies takes the ride today...

Another who is hardly a household name, but he does ride well on the Oliver string, as a 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 69.1pts (+314% ROI) record will testify. In handicaps, he's 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+79.2% ROI) and in handicap chases, it's 3/12 (25% SR) for 17.5pts (+146% ROI).

The Davies / Oliver / Hcp Chase / Heavy ground combo is 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+227.8% ROI).

Whispering Harry loves the mud...

...winning three of his seven starts over obstacles on heavy ground so far, with the other four runs resulting in a runner-up finish and three third places!

Since the start of 2011 in UK heavy ground handicaps, horses with 2 or more wins on heavy ground from 10 or fewer efforts on heavy have 104 wins from 695 races, with the 15% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 139.8pts at an ROI of 20.1%.

In handicap chases, the figures become 74/438 (16.9% SR) for 88.2pts, also at an ROI of 201.1% and a 2/7 (28.6% SR) record here at Taunton producing 4.8pts at 68.6% ROI.

Conditions in general look ideal for him today...

We already know from above that the heavy going will suit his style, he has won each of his last three races at today's trip. He also has a 131 record when ridden by James Davies, all over fences where he is 4131 and his figures at this Class 3 level read 3131. Whispering Harry has won three from six at odds of below 6/1 and is clearly in good nick.

I do like the look of him here and I'm sure he's the one to beat, so why not join me in placing a 1pt win bet on Whispering Harry at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor? You can also get the same price from Hills or if you prefer to do your own research, you can...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.