Thursday's Result :
4.55 Newcastle : Soundstrings @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, soon led, ran on well to win by almost 2 lengths)
Friday's pick is the last of another profitable month and it goes in the...
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Oriental Relation at 6/1 BOG
Trainer James Given's runners are 81/561 (14.4% SR) for 115.4pts (+20.6% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since the start of 2011, which is decent enough, but closer inspection of those figures throws out the following snippets of relevant data...
- those with a run in the past 30 days are 72/450 (16%) for 153.4pts (+34.1%)
- males are 70/72 (16.7%) for 136.4pts (+32.5%)
- those in the top 3 of the market are 52/204 (25.5%) for 19.5% (+9.5%)
- those ridden by Tom Eaves are 20/139 (14.4$ for 28pts (+20.2%)
- those racing over this 5f minimum trip are 22/1212 (18.2%) for 75pts (+62%)
- and 5 yr olds are 13/94 (13.8%) for 46pts (+49%)
Puting the more prevalent factors together tells us that males who are in the top 3 of the market and ran in the previous 30 days are 46 from 170 (27.1% SR) for 34.1pts (+20.1% ROI) profit, of which...
- 5f runners are 13/42 (31%) for 8.4pts (+20%)
- Tom Eaves is 13/40 (32.5%) for 21.3pts (+53.3%)
- and 5 yr olds are 6/28 (21.4%) for 4.25pts (+15.2%)
All of which suggest that any James Given runner fitting the above stats is worth backing and I could really just stop there, but sometimes I just can't help myself, so I then thought I'd check the horse out a little more closely and here's what I found...
Oriental Relation is 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13pts (+76.5% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 races on the All-Weather, which is really good going, and of those 17 efforts, he is...
- 6/16 (37.5%) for 11.38pts (+71.2%) in handicaps
- 7/13 (53.9%) for 17pts (+130.8%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
- 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.32pts (+79.4%) since the start of 2015
- 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.93pts (+132.5%) ridden by Tom Eaves
- 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.19pts (+159.9%) over 5 furlongs
- and 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.19 pts when racing 11 to 20 days since his last outing
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oriental Relation at 6/1 BOG, which was offered in a dozen separate places at 7.35pm on Thursday and was still widely available at 11.10pm, so to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...
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