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Stat of the Day, 30th September 2016

Thursday's Result :

4.55 Newcastle : Soundstrings @ 7/2 BOG WON at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway over 2f out, switched left over 1f out, soon led, ran on well to win by almost 2 lengths)

Friday's pick is the last of another profitable month and it goes in the...

8.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Relation at 6/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer James Given's runners are 81/561 (14.4% SR) for 115.4pts (+20.6% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since the start of 2011, which is decent enough, but closer inspection of those figures throws out the following snippets of relevant data...

  • those with a run in the past 30 days are 72/450 (16%) for 153.4pts (+34.1%)
  • males are 70/72 (16.7%) for 136.4pts (+32.5%)
  • those in the top 3 of the market are 52/204 (25.5%) for 19.5% (+9.5%)
  • those ridden by Tom Eaves are 20/139 (14.4$ for 28pts (+20.2%)
  • those racing over this 5f minimum trip are 22/1212 (18.2%) for 75pts (+62%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 13/94 (13.8%) for 46pts (+49%)

Puting the more prevalent factors together tells us that males who are in the top 3 of the market and ran in the previous 30 days are 46 from 170 (27.1% SR) for 34.1pts (+20.1% ROI) profit, of which...

  • 5f runners are 13/42 (31%) for 8.4pts (+20%)
  • Tom Eaves is 13/40 (32.5%) for 21.3pts (+53.3%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 6/28 (21.4%) for 4.25pts (+15.2%)

All of which suggest that any James Given runner fitting the above stats is worth backing and I could really just stop there, but sometimes I just can't help myself, so I then thought I'd check the horse out a little more closely and here's what I found...

Oriental Relation is 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13pts (+76.5% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 races on the All-Weather, which is really good going, and of those 17 efforts, he is...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 11.38pts (+71.2%) in handicaps
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 17pts (+130.8%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.32pts (+79.4%) since the start of 2015
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.93pts (+132.5%) ridden by Tom Eaves
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.19pts (+159.9%) over 5 furlongs
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.19 pts when racing 11 to 20 days since his last outing

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oriental Relation at 6/1 BOG, which was offered in a dozen separate places at 7.35pm on Thursday and was still widely available at 11.10pm, so to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Newcastle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.45 Goodwood : The Last Lion @ 100/30 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased leaders, went 2nd and edged right over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, never going pace of winner)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oriental Relation at 7/2 BOG

Why?

A winner here over course and distance 9 days ago, making all last time out and similar tactics would serve him well again on a track that our racecard heatmap tells me rewards front runners from mid-placed draws and 5 of 8 is ideal here.

He's up 5lbs for his win, but not only does his jockey's claim negate the rise, he's still some 13lbs lower than his A/W mark, so weight shouldn't be an issue either.

Stats wise, he's 8 from 35 (7/27 in hcps) running after a break of less them 3 weeks, 5/18 (4/14 in hcps) off a mark of 71-80 and 6/11 (5/9 in hcps) when priced at 4/1 and shorter, so conditions look set fair for him here.

Added to this is trainer James Given, whose 3 to 7 yr old handicappers running at Classes 5 to 7 with the CD logo next to their name and were LTO winners (anywhere!) are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 10.28pts (+54.1% ROI) since 2010, of which those racing over today's 5f trip are 3/5 (60%) for 11.02pts (+220.4%) profit.

...meaning that it's a 1pt win bet on Oriental Relation at 7/2 BOG from Bet365, BetVictor and/or Hills, who led the way at 6.15pm, although to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2015

Thursday's Result :

2.00 Ludlow : Helium @ 3/1 BOG : WON at 7/2 (Midfield, headway to chase leaders 5 out, led next, drew clear approaching last, eased down closing stages and still won by 12 lengths!)

Friday's selection runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sign of the Kodiac @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

James Given's horses are in good nick with 3 winners from 10 in the last fortnight and the horse has two wins and two runner-up finishes from four outings on the A/W to date (2121) and was a course and distance winner in this grade 13 days ago. So, track, trip, surface and class are all fine today.

His two wins have come off breaks of 14 and 17 days, so now would be the optimum time for him to turn back out. All four A/W runs have been in small-ish fields like today and Tom Eaves has ridden all four times.

This year alone, Tom Eaves has 22 wins from 168 rides (13.1% SR) on James Given's horses with level stakes profits of 70.1pts equating to 41.7% of all investments and as I like to do, here are the relevant facts about those 168 runners...

  • males are 20/125 (16% SR) for 92.9pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • handicappers are 17/111 (15.3% SR) for 24pts (+21.6% ROI)
  • on the A/W, they are 16/84 (19.1% SR) for 30.3pts (+36.1% ROI)
  • 2yr olds are 7/48 (14.6% SR) for 66pts (+137.5% ROI)
  • runners at 5f are 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 24.6pts (+57.3% ROI)
  • those priced 7/4 to 11/2 are 13/34 (38.2% SR) for 28.1pts (+82.6% ROI)
  • in nurseries : 3/12 (25% SR) for 3.12pts (+26% ROI)

And finally, it's worth noting that since the start of 2009, James Given's handicappers who were LTO winners and now return to the scene of a C&D win are 11/55 (20% SR) for 6.62pts (+12% ROI) with those running at 5f winning 4 of 16 (25% SR) for 5.11pts at an ROI of 31.9%

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Sign of the Kodiac at 3/1 BOG with any one of at least 8 firms. I'm using 10BET today, as they offer refunds on defeats of a head or shorter, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2015

When I started typing Thursday's selection up at 7.40pm on Wednesday evening, our 11/4 bet on Circuitous hadn't been resolved, but I'll update you on that one later.

I can tell you that he was backed in to 9/4 the last time I looked!

On to Thursday and more late night A/W action, this time in the...

8.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 6, 1m2f A/W handicap for 3yr olds and older, where Tom Eaves will attempt to ride James Given's 4yr old filly The Dukkerer to a second course and distance win inside a fortnight and they're priced up at an attractive-looking 6/1 BOG to do so.

That race was the horse's second trip to this track and her very first crack at the 1m2f trip here, but she did have the guidance of Tom Eaves, who is having an excellent year here on this course. He has ridden 7 winners from 33 rides (21.2% SR) in handicaps here in 2015 with the 10.8pts profits made equating to 32.6% of stakes invested.

But, it's at the shorter end of the market where Tom has more joy with all winners falling into the 5/2 to 7/1 odds range, where he is 7/13 (53.9% SR) for 30.8pts (+236.7% ROI).

And if Tom does well, the same can be said for trainer James Given, for his horses have won 8 of 34 races (23.5% SR) for 26.8pts (+78.8% ROI) here this year and not only is that a decent return, you might be surprised to see how well this contest fits into the profile of his successes. In descending order of sample size, those 34 Chelmsford runners this year are...

  1. 7/28 (25% SR) for 52.7pts (+20.7% ROI) in handicaps
  2. 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 34.8pts (+133.9% ROI) at odds of 5/2 to 10/1
  3. 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 22.7pts (+87.1% ROI) when running after a break of less than 20 days
  4. 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 6.6pts (+28.7% ROI) when ridden by Tom Eaves in a handicap
  5. 5/20 (25% SR) for 9.4pts (+47% ROI) finishing in the top 4 last time out
  6. 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 15.8pts (+112.6% ROI) at Classes 5 & 6
  7. 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 8.8pts (+98.1% ROI) with 4yr olds
  8. 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 16.4pts (+205.4% ROI) from female runners
  9. 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 9.3pts over this 1m2f course and distance

And breathe! 😀

James Given / Tom Eaves / Chelmsford Class 3 to 6 A/W handicaps at 5/2 to 10/1 less than 20 days after a top 4 finish LTO = 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 16.8pts (+186.7% ROI) including, of course, The Dukkerer over track and trip 14 days ago.

The team are 6/1 BOG with both SkyBet and Betvictor, whilst Ladbrokes offer the same, but are non-BOG until the morning. So why not...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2015

Neither I, jockey Ashley Morgan nor horse Ze King exactly covered ourselves in glory on Monday, as jockey/horse became the latest in a very long string of horses to fail to win at Lingfield from too far off the pace after the final bend and they were the first of several on the day to fail to get home up the inside!

Chris Wall's other runner (which I also fancied and backed!), Semaral, suffered the exact same fate. Ze King was outpaced in the dash for the line and eventually finished 5th of 11, beaten by almost 4 lengths at 9/2, a point shorter than advised.

No jumps action again on Tuesday, so more A/W stuff to consider and one of interest for some obvious (and some not so obvious!) reasons in the...

2.30 Southwell:

A 12 furlong, Class 5 A/W handicap where the in-form Graham Lee will ride James Given's 5yr old, USA-bred gelding, Bushel, as they aim for a second course win inside five days at a generous looking 6/1 BOG.

James likes to turn them back out quickly...

...since the start of 2009, James has sent 119 handicappers out within 7 days of their last outing. 27 (22.7% SR) of them have gone on to win, recording level stakes profits of 109.1pts at an ROI of 91.7% ROI.

Over the last five years, such horses running on the A/W are 16/58 (27.6% SR) for 80.2pts (+138.3% ROI), with those who won last time out going on to win again on five of twelve (41.7% SR) attempts for profits of 26.2pts (+218.4% ROI)

Bushel is up 6lbs for that win 5 days ago...

...and he also steps up a furlong whilst running at the same Class 5 level as last time out. And since 2011, horses running on the A/W with an OR 0 to 7lbs higher than a last time out win within 5 days are 54/159 (34% SR) for 39.3pts (+24.7% ROI) profits when running at the same class or up one grade and at the same trip or up 1 furlong as last time out.

That 54/159 is excellent as it stands, but it moves to 13/32 (40.6% SR) here at Southwell for profits of 14.2pts (+44.4% ROI) and horses priced at 9/4 to 6/1 are 24/73 (32.9% SR) for 48.4pts (+66.4% ROI).

And those running here at Southwell in that 9/4 to 6/1 price bracket are 7/18 (38.9% ROI) for 14.3pts (+79.5% ROI) to date.

Back USA-bred males at Southwell...

...is the old saying, but because it's old doesn't mean it's wrong, as since the start of 2008, USA -bred male runners on the A/W here at Southwell have won 339 races from 1760 attempts; a 19.3% strike rate producing 346.2pts profit at an ROI of 19.7%. Most of you are probably already aware of this system at Southwell, but for those of you not wanting a system that has over 250 bets a year, here are some ways of pruning the number of selections down.

So, from our initial 1760 runners, we have five subsections...

1706 ran at Class 3 to 6 level : 329 winners (19.3% SR) produced 358.6pts (21% ROI) profit,
1296 ran at trips of 7 to 14 furlongs : 261 winners (20.1% SR) produced 342pts (26.4% ROI) profit,
1278 ran in handicap contests : 221 winners (17.3% SR) produced 298.4pts (23.4% ROI) profit,
1017 had three or fewer previous runs here : 210 winners (20.7% SR) produced 358.2pts (35.2% ROI) profit and
725 were aged 4 or 5 years old : 148 winners (20.4% SR) produced 303.4pts (41.9% ROI) profit.

The above can all be mixed and matched to your heart's content, but for those of you wanting a nice little micro-system for use here at Southwell, here goes!

Since 2008, USA-bred males, aged 4 to 5 running in A/W handicaps over 7 to 14 furlongs here at Southwell with less than four previous runs at this track are 65/282 (23.1% SR) for profits of 226.2pts at an ROI of 80.2%!

Following this gives an average of 40 bets per year and 30 to 35pts profit and has made money in each of the last 7 years with 2011 being the worst year when it "only" made 30.7% ROI!

Bushel, of course, fits the above spec perfectly and he comes here after winning here over 1m3f last Thursday when partnered by today's jockey Graham Lee. I intimated at the top of the piece that graham was in good touch and his record so far this year backs that up, with his 8/29 record since the turn of the year. He has a 17.5% strike rate here at this track and is already 4/9 here this year.

Bushel is up 6lbs and will need to show a bit more than his last run, but he seems to be improving each time he comes here as a Southwell form line of 321 will show. He fluffed the start last time out and was slow away losing a chunk of ground, before battling back to stay on and take the lead inside the final furlong. With a better start this time and a similar display of late power should ensure another good run up in trip,

He actually stays further than this, but has won over today's 1m4f distance and Bushel looks good value at his current odds of 6/1 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook. Other firms have him at 4/1 to 11/2, which might indicate a shorter price later giving us some added value to the selection.

If you want to see what the other bookies are offering, simply...

...click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2012

Stat of the Day 23/10

Stat of the Day 23/10

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2012

No joy yesterday, as Breezolini never really got going and eventually trooped home back in 9th place of 15 runners, despite having been backed in from our advised 8/1 all the way down to 7/2 favouritism. It is, of course, often very easy, to become despondent about picking losers, but as somebody ( who is far more wise about these things than I am!) keeps telling me: if you're backing horses at double their SP, that's the route to long-term profitability. I've no doubts that he's right, too!

Today, we're going to attempt to turn back time in tackling a Class 5 Fillies handicap over 7 furlongs on yet more heavy ground. We're currently expecting 16 runners to go to post for the...

3.20 Yarmouth

Last Tuesday's original selection for SotD fell foul of the recent wet weather and the Newcastle meeting was abandoned, leaving me to keep an eye out for the horse's reappearance. Anyway, it would seem that trainer James Given has found what he deems a suitable race for the selection Clumber Place. Much of last week's stats/info remain relevant, so here's a quick reminder about this one:

Clumber Place has an excellent record over 7 furlongs, having won six times from 24 attempts, harvesting a huge 63.25pts profit from those races (263.5% of stakes). Her record on heavy ground is also impressive, albeit from a much smaller sample size: two wins from three for 4.5pts profit with her record over 7 furlongs on heavy being two from two.

She does, admittedly, produce her best form at Newcastle, but I believe she was primed and ready to go well last week and that she's sent here as a next best alternative. This "theory" is further backed up by James Given's usual reluctance to come to the Norfolk track: just 5 runners in the last two years, whilst this is jockey Graham Lee's first visit to the course. Graham was, of course, on board Clumber Place last time out when she won a 7f Handicap on heavy ground at Newcastle some 20 days ago.

Yet for all this, Yarmouth does have some similarities with the Newcastle strip, they're both flattish galloping tracks with a straight 7 furlong strip and despite coming up short on her only two previous visits here (far from ideal conditions for her on both occasions) today looks tailor-made for this 6 yr old filly.

Today's race looks a competitive affair, but it doesn't seem to have the same quality as the one we originally highlighted last week and this has been reflected in the price. We were looking at an E/W bet last Tuesday and with 16 runners paying 4 places, the same would be nice today.

However, the best we're getting this morning seems to be the 9/2 BOG on offer from BetVictor and I think that's about right (to within a half point or so). She may well shorten up during the day, so I'm staking the full point on Clumber Place to win at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor, but as always, I recommend that you take the time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Yarmouth.

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

Stock Hill Fair finished 2nd yesterday and despite finishing some 8 lengths behind a rejuvenated Betchworth Kid, ran a very good race and led for the majority of the contest. Matt had advised us to take the 14/1 E/W on offer from bet365, which proved to be a smart move, as our selection was sent off at 15/2. However, the 2nd place finish meant a profit of 1.25pts for the bank and also (somewhat self-congratulatory) we're pleased to announce that this was the 100th winning SotD bet from Matt and myself in the last 11 months.

Anyway, enough of yesterday, I'm back in the SotD chair for the next 10 days or so and it's now my task to kickstart the next century of winners! So, we're going to the North East and provided the 8am inspection goes well, we're tackling the small matter of a 16-runner Class 6 Handicap over 7 furlongs on heavy ground in the...

3.30 Newcastle

The meeting is in some danger of abandonment, so we already know how heavy the going is going to be and today's selection is proven in both testing conditions and today's trip.

Clumber Place has an excellent record over 7 furlongs, having won six times from 24 attempts, harvesting a huge 63.25pts profit from those races (263.5% of stakes). She has also performed well here at Newcastle. All five of her previous outings here have been over today's trip and her form line from those 5 races reads 11521 for a profit of 15.5pts at SP. Her record on heavy ground is 2 wins from 3 and her record at Newcastle over course, distance and heavy ground is quite simply two from two.

Those two C&D wins on heavy ground include her last run some 13 days ago and although she has been raised 4lbs for her efforts, she looks well set for another good run under her favoured conditions.

Clumber Place is trained by James Given and will be ridden by Frederik Tylicki today. Freddie's no stranger to Newcastle either with a decent enough record of his own, boasting a 20% win strike and a place strike rate of 47%.

Currently only Bet365 have a full market for this one and I can't help but think that 13/2 BOG looks generous. Not only is it generous, it's long enough to offer us the E/W safety net which I'll be making full use of, should the race actually take place. So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W at 13/2 BOG with Bet365, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.30 Newcastle.

***P.S. Current state of affairs is 4 places paid at 1/4 odds, but any non-runners will reduce the place payouts to the first three home***

Trainer Stats: 15th Aug 2012

Tregoning Horses Are Hitting The Mark

See who is on Andy Newton’s ‘HOT TRAINERS’ list this week....... Read more

Trainer Stats: 5th Jan 2012

We might be deep into the NH season, but there are several flat AW handlers in cracking form at present, including a new kid on the block............. Read more