Stat of the Day, 10th February 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.45 Southwell : With Hindsight @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led 2f, tracked leaders, chased winner over 4f out, ridden over 3f out, stayed on under pressure inside final furlong, gaining close home, but beaten by 0.75L)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

4.35 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Captain Redbeard @ 11/4 BOG


This 7 yr old gelding was last seen winning comfortably by 8 lengths 10 days ago and since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers running 3 to 60 days after a win by 4 lengths or more in a handicap hurdle last time out are 279 from 1078 (25.9% SR) for 228pts (+21.2% ROI) profit. Of those runners, those priced shorter than 12/1 are 273/951 (28.7% SR) for 227pts at an ROI of 23.9% and we can break those 951 runners down as follows to fit today's race conditions...

  • 5 to 11 yr olds are 264/908 (29.1% SR) for 232.9pts (+25.6% ROI)
  • those last seen 4 to 25 days ago are 222/691 (32.1% SR) for 236pts (+34.2% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 15 lengths LTO are 180/596 (30.2% SR) for 204.3pts (+34.3% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 110/331 (33.2% SR) for 99.3pts (+30% ROI)

And from the above, 5 to 11 yr olds in Class 4/5 races 4 to 25 days after a win by 5 to 15 lengths last time out are 121/305 (39.7% SR) for 150.5pts (+49.4% ROI), of which heavy ground races have yielded 20 winners from 34 (58.8% SR) for 24.4pts (+71.9% ROI)

Captain Redbeard is trained by Stuart Coltherd and since the start of 2011, his NH handicappers in the 15/8 to 11/1 price range are 37/189 (19.6% SR) for 70.5pts (+37.3% ROI), and with today's conditions firmly in mind, those 189 runners are...

  • 29/137 (21.2% SR) as 5 to 9 yr olds for profits of 72.8pts at an ROI of 53.1%
  • 29/136 (21.3% SR) over 2m to 2m 5.5f for 79pts (+58.1% ROI)
  • 26/118 (22% SR) 6 to 30 days since their last run for 74.2pts (+62.9% ROI)
  • 18/91 (19.8% SR) in Class 4 races for 39.5pts (+43.4% ROI)
  • 8/44 (18.2% SR) on heavy ground for 14.6pts (+33.2% ROI)
  • 9/18 (50% SR) ridden by James Reveley for 33.9pts (+188.3% ROI)
  • 3/16 (18.75% SR) for 14.3pts (+37.3% ROI) here at Carlisle.

From my figures, I can tell you that Stuart Coltherd's NH handicappers priced at 15/8 to 11/1, aged 5 to 11 yrs old, running at Classes 3 to 5 over 2m to 2m 5.5f, 4 to 30 days since their last run are 22/85 (25.9% SR) for profits of 84.4pts at an ROI of 99.3%.

Plus, of those 85 runners, those running on heavy ground are 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 21.3pts (+112.2% ROI), those ridden by James Reveley are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 20.34pts (+339.1% ROI) and those racing here at Carlisle are 2 from 6 (33.33% SR) for 11.94pts (+199% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on the above data and prices available at 7.15pm is...

A 1pt bet on Captain Redbeard and that's at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, BetVictor, Hills and/or Paddy Power, so to pick your preferred bookie... here for the betting on the 4.35 Carlisle

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Here is today's racecard...

Milord Thomas Retains Crown in Auteuil Thriller


On Sunday, sunkissed Auteuil staged day 2 of its Autumn Racing Festival, writes Nigel Howard. Three Grade 1 races were up for grabs with the Prix la Haye Jousselin run over 5500m (three miles and four furlongs) for five- year olds and upwards holding centre stage.

This was an all-French affair with defending champion MILORD THOMAS the strong favourite having proved his wellbeing in the Prix Heros XII (Grade 3, chase, 2m6f) at this course in October where he finished second over an inadequate trip giving lumps of weight to his rivals. In the plate, regular partner and four times champion jockey Jacques Ricou who was looking to lift this prize for the third time after MILORD THOMAS last year and  Golden Flight for Guillaume Macaire back in 2005.

Nine opposed with the principal contender and winner of the race back in 2013, SHANNON ROCK, trained by Jean-Paul Gallorini with David Cottin piloting. He also ran in the Prix Heros but could finish only fifth. He looked weak in the market, trading at around 13/2 and punters were looking for alternatives. They rounded on the horse that won that prep race, VEZELAY ridden by Bertrand Lestrade and also JEMY BAIE, the mount of Kevin Nobet, who had finished third. Both looked to be improving and offered good value at around 8-1 with the favourite trading at a miniscule 3/5 on the pari-mutuel.

Come the race, a sedate pace was initially set by KAHYADAM, winner of his last race and trained by Arnaud Chaillé-Chaillé. He was closely followed by VEZELAY and SAINT PALOIS, the mount of Englishman James Reveley and second in this race two years previously. The rivière des tribunes, a massive water jump in front of the stands, saw the first casualties with longshots VIEUX MORVAN and ROYAL ASTARANIA crashing out at the back of the field.

With no one really keen to go on, Jacques Ricou decided to let the favourite take the lead and consequently injected some extra pace into the race. At the gross open-ditch, JEMY BAIE was the next casualty leaving only seven standing with 4000 metres still to run.

With MILORD THOMAS now in command, the race progressed without incident but approaching the final bend, VEZELAY moved level with the leader and looked full of running. A couple of lengths down but still in contention SAINT PALOIS and SHANNON ROCK were also running on. At the second last, the double-barriere, VEZELAY and MILORD THOMAS rose together, two lengths back, SHANNON ROCK and SAINT PALOIS were in hot pursuit but Reveley’s mount hit the fence hard and briefly lost his balance.

Approaching the last, MILORD THOMAS and VEZELAY were still neck and neck. The favourite moved to the stands side whilst VEZELAY stayed up the centre. Over the last and Jacques Ricou threw everything at his charge and he duly replied. VEZELAY was also answering his jockey’s desperate drive but started to weaken and it was SAINT PALOIS and James Reveley who were running on the strongest, passing VEZELAY in the last 50 yards but just failing to overhaul MILORD THOMAS in a final lunge for the line.

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Jacques Ricou, when interviewed, although ecstatic, declared “J’ai eu une course de merde!” (I had a terrible race) referring to the fact that he had had to make the running and that this hadn’t helped his mount. Ricou later received a 12-day ban from the stewards, not for his colourful language, but for having used his whip more than 18 times during the race.

His trainer, Dominique Bressou, was more philosophical saying, “We were the favourite and it certainly isn’t the job of the other jockey’s to help our cause. Jacques was therefore obliged to take the lead much sooner than we had wanted but it all worked out in the end and it just proves what a good horse he is!”.

MILORD THOMAS, a son of Kapgarde, has now run in four grade 1 races and won them all. He became only the sixth horse to complete the Grand Steeple Chase/Prix la Haye Jousselin double in the same year. He also emulates the likes of Remember Rose and Rubi Ball to become a duel winner of this great race in consecutive years. He is still only a six-year old and time is distinctly on his side.

Connections of SAINT PALOIS were obviously disappointed. James Reveley was adamant that if his mount had put in a clear round, the result would have been different saying, “We had a good lead from the favourite but he hit the open-ditch and missed the double-barriere. Without those mistakes I’m sure we would have won.” His trainer was equally frustrated stating, “We were very confident coming into the race as we knew he had improved from his last run. He’s come very close and although we are obviously pleased with his performance you can’t help but rue the mistake at the second last that probably cost us the race.”

VEZELAY was contesting his first grade 1 event and ran a great race. Trained by Emmanuel Clayeux he is obviously on the upgrade and future tussles with MILORD THOMAS look more than likely over coming seasons. SHANNON ROCK again ran with credit, finishing fourth but a long way behind the first three.


Jacques Ricou with Magdalen O. Bryant owner of MILORD THOMAS

Jacques Ricou with Magdalen O. Bryant owner of MILORD THOMAS

Robert Collet and Jockey Ludovic Philipperon celebrate after the Prix Cambacérès

Robert Collet and Jockey Ludovic Philipperon celebrate after the Prix Cambacérès

Earlier in the day, Guillaume Macaire was again in the spotlight as he trained red-hot favourite DEVICE for the first grade 1 event on the card for the Prix Cambacérès (hurdle, 2m2f) for three-year olds. The son of Poliglote was trading at an astonishing 1/5 on the pari-mutuel and was on a seven-timer having beaten all his main rivals here on the way. In the hot seat, regular partner James Reveley sporting the famous silks of Magalen O. Bryant, owner of future big race winner MILORD THOMAS.

His principal opponent came in the shape of the filly, CHIMERE DU BERLAIS who he beat comprehensively in the Prix Georges de Talhouet-Roy the previous month. However, from the outset, the race didn’t seem to be going to plan with the filly quickly taking the lead and jumping with great enthusiasm. DEVICE lay just off the pace and as they swung into the home straight, he still looked dangerous but, up front, the filly, ridden by Ludovic Philipperon for trainer Robert Collet was not stopping. She jumped the last full of running whilst two lengths back, DEVICE made a bad mistake and was then hampered by the eventual second INDIETIR. CHIMERE DU BERLAIS went on to win by a convincing 5 lengths with DEVICE not able to recover from his blunder at the last finishing third.

This was a welcome recompense for Robert Collet, who saw his stable star SAINT FIRMIN perish at the last in the previous day’s showcase the Grand Prix D'Automne. When interviewed, Robert Collet, better known in the UK for the exploits of Last Tycoon and Whipper on the flat, stated “I’ve been training horses for 43 years and in this game you have to take the rough with the smooth. Yesterday was an emotional day for all the family as my wife owned the horse and my daughter rode him in his work. Today, with this horse, we decided to employ more forceful tactics than for her previous outing and she really enjoyed being out in front. Her brother was good over fences so hopefully she has a bright future.”

Revenge of sorts was in the air in the next big event the Prix Maurice Gillois (grade 1, chase, 4yo) where James Reveley was again on show riding SO FRENCH, a full brother to DEVICE, the defeated odds-on favourite in the Prix Cambacérès. The betting however, strongly suggested that he would be playing second fiddle to his stable companion and favourite KOBROUK, a son of Saint des Saints and comfortable winner of the grade 3 PRIX ORCADA in October. This time, though, it was Reveley who was on the surprise package as SO FRENCH answered his every call in another desperate run to the line. KOBROUK with Kevin Nabet in the driving seat fought all the way to the line and it was only in the final 50 yards that SO FRENCH eventually got on top to win by a length.

When interviewed, Macaire was still seething about the previous race where DEVICE was hampered at the last and failed to run his race. However, he was more than happy with the run of SO FRENCH who had suffered a hairline fracture a year ago and had been off the course for some time. This was only his fifth career run and his first win in a grade 1 event.

James Reveley

For James Reveley, this was indeed sweet revenge for the performance of DEVICE in the previous race and after his second on SAINT PALOIS in the Prix la Haye Jousselin, represented a very profitable day to boot. (He also won the last race on the card). He is becoming a regular visitor to these shores and is supported by some of the biggest trainers. It is a surprise that he doesn’t get more opportunities in England. Perhaps after a good showing in a high-profile meeting such as this, that might change.

- Nigel Howard

[Nigel is's Parisian correspondent, and writes regularly around the big race meetings, both flat and jumps, in France]

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2015

Cappielow Park was a non-runner yesterday, so I've nothing to report on, meaning I can get straight on to Saturday's selection, which goes in the...

4.00 Newcastle:

Where I've just taken 3/1 BOG on Waltz Darling, who is trained by Keith Reveley and will be ridden by his son James for this 3 mile, Class 3 handicap hurdle on good to soft ground.

Since the start of 2010, Keith's NH Handicappers have won 17% of their races with 81 winners from 476 runners. Backing them blindly to a £10 level stake would have made you a cool £891 profit a more than satisfactory rate of return of 18.7%. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 9/12 price range are 63/308 (20.5% SR) for 86.2pts (+28% ROI) and his handicap hurdlers in that time are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 57pts (+28.6% ROI) profit.

Since 2010, Keith Reveley's handicap hurdlers are 28/136 (20.6% SR) for 55.5pts (+40.8% ROI) profit when priced between 2/1 & 9/1 inclusive.

Waltz Darling drops down a grade today and since the start of 2009, Keith Reveley's NH handicap class droppers have won 25 of their 113 races (22.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 96.8pts at an ROI of 85.7% with those dropping down just the one level (like Waltz Darling here) are 19/92 (20.7% SR) for 76pts (+82.6% ROI). Those runners priced 2/1 to 8/1 are 21/77 (27.3% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.9% ROI) whilst his handicap hurdlers dropping in class are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 40.4pts profit at an ROI of 85.9% to date.

Keith Reveley's handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 8/1 dropping down 1 grade are 6/24 (25% SR) for 14.7pts (+61.3% ROI) profit since 2009.

Keith's son James is in the saddle today and since the start of 2010, the partnership has had 125 winners from 680 runners and if you'd blindly stuck a tenner on each of them, the 18.4% strike rate would have yielded £1484 profit as a 21.8% return on your money. In handicap company, those figures revert to 70 winners from 383 runners (18.3% SR) and 104.6pts (+27.3% ROI) profit with handicap hurdlers contributing 24 wins from 155 (15.5% SR) and 32.6pts (+21% ROI) profit.

Together, with handicap hurdlers priced below 10/1, Team Reveley are 22/113 (19.5% SR) for 30.6pts (+27.1% ROI) profit since 2010.

Waltz Darling comes here in decent form having won three times and been placed twice from just seven outings in the last five months and was a runner-up at Doncaster last time out. There was no disgrace in his five length defeat there by Call The Cops who was a winner at Cheltenham (Pertemps) on Wednesday.

He's 1/1 at today's trip and 4/7 on good to soft ground and he is used to being ridden by James Reveley as they have 5 wins and 5 places from 15 starts together.

Conditions look ideal for Waltz Darling to get back to winning ways and with nothing of Call The Cops calibre to contend with here, a similar run to last time out should be enough for a win at 3/1 BOG. That's the price I've taken with Boylesports, but it is widely available elsewhere, as you'll see when you... here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Newcastle

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Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2014

Cascadia was withdrawn from action yesterday after coming into season, so there's nothing for me to report on, so I'll move swiftly on to Friday's pick, which goes in the...

12.35 Newcastle:

Which is a Class 4 Handicap chase over 16.5f  where I'm just about to take 100/30 BOG about Things Change. This is a lightly raced (just 4 starts to date) horse who has been off the track for 509 days, so there's not a great deal to tell you about him.

He is, however, under the care of John (JJ) Quinn...

...whose horses are in good nick at present with 5 winners from 17 in the last fortnight and a 3/9 record over the past week. John's runners have been profitable to back blindly over the last few years, as since the start of 2012, he saddled up 54 winners from his 222 NH runners with that 24.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 99.7pts at an ROI of 44.9%.

He doesn't come to Newcastle too often, but in that same time frame as above his horses are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 16.3pts (+233.3% ROI) profit.

And from the original 54/222 stat above,those sent off in "SotD territory" ie 9/4 to 11/2 have won 21 of 79 (26.6% SR) outings for level stakes profits of 24.1pts at an ROI of 30.5% and his handicappers are 19/87 (21.8% SR) for 48.5pts (+55.7% ROI), whilst those handicappers falling into that lower price filter are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 28.8pts (+93% ROI) profit

He has only had two runners in the 9/4 to 11/2 zone here at Newcastle, but they have at least both been winners!

James Reveley is on board today...

...and hes also in good touch of late with 5 winners from 23 this week alone. He tends to do pretty well here at Newcastle, having won 18 of his 88 (20.5% SR) handicap contests here over the last five years and this record has materialised itself in level stakes profits of 37.9pts, a return of 43.1% above all stakes invested in that period.

15 of those 18 winners have come on horses with a bit of money behind them, as seen by the fact that he's 15/56 (26.8% SR) here in handicaps on board horses priced between 9/4 & 15/2 and not only does this price banding account for over 83% of his winners, it also brings in almost 96% of his profit at 36.3pts or 64.8% of stakes.

James doesn't ride too many of John's horses, which is somewhat of a pity as he's already scored 4 winners from just 13 rides for this trainer.

John Quinn is a wily/shrewd trainer and despite Things Change not having run for almost 73 weeks, you just know he'll be fit and raring to go and could very well spring a surprise on his chasing debut. With just four runs to his name, he's certainly unexposed, and wasn't ever out of the first four home (3412) in his brief hurdling career. All four runs were in an around this type of trip and the recent rain won't be an issue, as his two best runs to date came on soft ground, including his sole win which was incidentally off the same 118 mark as he runs off today.

The general consensus seems to be that Things Change's fitness will have to be taken on trust, but that the market movements are to be watched. With that in mind, the fact that he's currently joint favourite in a couple of places would tend to suggest he's expected to go well fresh, so I've no hesitation in nominating him today.

It's time to put my money where my mouth is (it's certainly big enough! 😀 ) and place a 1pt win bet on Things Change at 100/30 BOG. I've gone with Hills today, but the same price is offer in at least two other places, as you'll see when you... here for the latest betting on the 12.35 Newcastle

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Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

No joy yesterday as Josh's Dreamaway failed to place. She was making some headway towards the end of the race, but it was already too late in my opinion, I think she needed to have been kept a little closer to make a charge. She eventually finished in 6th, which was no disgrace, but it was 3 lengths adrift of a payout for us.

We're off chasing in North Yorkshire today where we've a family affair in a 3m 1.5f, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase on good ground (at last!). And we've eight runners lined up for the...

2.50 Catterick

Trainer Keith Reveley's record in chase events here at Catterick has been excellent over the last few years. In fact, since the start of 2010, he has managed to saddle up ten winners from thirty for a very impressive 78pts profit, a return of 260% on stakes invested.

Meanwhile, Keith's son, James has also been rattling up the winners over the Catterick chase course. James has ridden ten winners from thirty-six attempts over the same period. This strike rate of 27.8% has resulted in profits of 71pts at SP (+197.2%).

It goes without saying that many of the rides above are common to both trainer and rider, but their combined stats here are far better than they are generally. Since January 2010, they have a combined strike rate of 18.6%, which is very respectable, but in Catterick chases it becomes 39.1% (9/23). Their combined profits from all races in this period are 56pts, which gives a POI of 12%, whilst in today's type of race, they've made 80.4pts = 349.6% of stakes.

Today is the last NH meeting of the season at Catterick and the father/son combo will look to go out on a high with their only joint effort (and James' sole ride) of the day: D'Gigi

D'Gigi is a 7 yr old chestnut mare who probably isn't as straightforward as the Reveley clan would like, but has shown plenty of promise previously. She was placed here in a hurdle race last season, whilst in a run of decent form (finishes of 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the spin in increasingly more difficult races), before a fall at Aintree last May seemed to halt her progress.

It was expected that she would come on more for a switch to fences and she wasn't far short of  her winning hurdles form on just her second attempt at chasing when fifth at Doncaster over 3 miles on soft ground in November. She has had a couple of jumping issues, but I'd have expected the stable to have worked on that during her near-3 month break from the track and I'd also expect to see a better performance on this firmer surface.

This is a race that the Reveleys seem to target, having won it in both 2010 and 2011. And whilst Keith didn't have an entry last year, James went on to ride the runner-up Brokethegate who finished 1.5 lengths behind Salut Honore.

I'd expect the team to have D'Gigi as ready as she can be for this one and if the jumping remains sound, she has every chance. Thus, today's play is a 1pt win bet on D'Gigi at 7/2 BOG. This price is available pretty much everywhere, so for your favoured bookie simply...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Catterick

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2012

Stat of the Day 07/10

Stat of the Day 07/10

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2012

SotD got back onto the scoreboard yesterday as Always Bold ran out a fairly comfortable winner in the end. Lugging more weight than normal on soft ground for almost three and a half miles didn't seem to faze a horse that has an excellent at course & distance. We had advised a 7/2 bet: this was reduced to 3.325/1 due to non-runners, but we comfortably beat the market as our horse was sent off as 5/2 favourite. We expected him to be the favourite and he justified the tag, winning by 5 lengths in the end, still full of running and going away!

We're heading back North today to the Scottish Borders for some more soft ground action. This time it's a Class 5 Handicap Chase over 2 miles 7 furlongs and we're expecting 10 runners to go to post, offering us the possibility of an E/W bet, even if a couple pull out of the...

5.10 Kelso

Handicap Chases at Kelso can be tricky affairs, but Dianne Sayers' chasers seem to go quite well here without breaking any records. She has admittedly only had one chase victory here from nine attempts in the last couple of years, but that was a 10/1 winner, ensuring she has a 2pts level stakes profit. More interestingly and relevant to today is the fact the four of the nine have made the frame and have generated profit of 6.5 pts when backing E/W: a return of over 72% on stakes. This fits in with my search for an E/W bet.

In the last two years the most successful jockey in Kelso Handicap Chases has been James Reveley with 4 winners from 9 rides and some decent prices have helped him to a level stakes profit of 21pts from those 9 races.

There are two chases on the Kelso card today: one at 4.05 and our race at 5.10. Dianne Sayers runs More Equity in the 4.05 race, and this 10 yr old lady looks set to struggle despite having previously run at the course, whilst James Reveley has no scheduled ride.

However, both trainer and jockey team up in the 5.10 for our SotD selection: Worth A Kings, our tentative E/W selection for today.

Worth A Kings tried his hand over fences last summer, but it didn't really work out for him, if truth be told. He went back to hurdling and rediscovered some form and a bot of confidence via a couple of hurdle victories in May and is expected to make a better fist of it second time around. He'll have no issues with the cut in the ground, he has a win and some place form on soft ground to his name already and if his jumping has improved any, I expect him to be there or thereabouts.

Despite a return to form over the smaller obstacles, Worth A Kings is actually rated higher over fences than hurdles and the yard do seem to think that this is the way forward for him now. Class 5 is probably right for where he's at and with a record of 14211 at this level, he has to be a contender for at least another place. Further smaller things of note are that he tends to go best in fields of 8-11 runners (4 of his 7 career wins) and he is 2 wins and 2 places from 6 in the month of October, so he tends to be readied for this time of year. He last ran 14 days ago and often goes well when reappearing soon after his last run. He has won 5 of the 10 races he has contested between a week and a fortnight from his last outing.

Worth A Kings is worth a look in my opinion and at 14/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, it's a 0.5pt E/W bet today for me and SotD , but you can choose to wait until later and then please do return to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.10 Kelso.

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