Posts

Tipperary Sunset still unbeaten and heading for Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot-bound Tipperary Sunset remained unbeaten after a taking victory in the bet365 Continental Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley.

The John Quinn-trained juvenile was a winner on his racecourse debut at Hamilton earlier in May and maintained his flawless record when posting a three-quarter-length success under James Sullivan in the five-furlong contest.

Springing from the starting stalls to gain an advantage from the off, the Ardad colt made all of the running and was never passed as he galloped to a game victory over Robjon at 4-1.

“We’ve always liked him,” Quinn said.

“From breaking him in, he’s a lovely mover, (he has a) nice mind.

Tipperary Sunset enjoys a deserved drink of water (PA)
Tipperary Sunset (PA)

“His early work was good and we thought ‘well we like this one’

“We’ll go to Royal Ascot, it’ll be between the Norfolk and the Windsor Castle.

“He’s progressed, this fella has had two runs and today he’s gone away at the line.

“He’s well worth his chance (over a) stiff five, Jimmy (Sullivan) said he wasn’t stopping, the ground was fine and he’ll handle better ground as well.”

Sullivan credited the winner’s swift start as one of his key attributes, saying: “He jumped very quick and I was always holding onto him, so he had the best chance.

“When something came to me at the finish, he kept galloping to the line.

“For two-year-olds, they need to be able to jump out, especially on a sharp track when they have a good draw, so when he jumped and made a length out of gates it was one box ticked.”

The jockey then secured a quickfire double when taking the bet365 Handicap aboard 7-1 chance Byron’s Choice for trainer Michael Dods.

Byron's Choice brought up a double for James Sullivan
Byron’s Choice

The six-year-old began to chase the race leader, Mark Johnston’s 2-1 favourite Sibaaq, in the final furlong and was eventually able to cross the line a neck ahead of his rival.

Sullivan said: “He went through the race very well for me, he’s a grand big horse and I think he handles the conditions very well.

“Obviously he had a bit of weight to carry and I think having a bit of size helped him, they went a solid gallop and brought a bit of stamina into it and he stayed nicely.

“He’s a big horse and he covers a lot of ground, I was always confident in the last furlong that he’d get to the front.”

Trevolli struck as the 4-6 favourite to take the bet365 Median Auction Maiden Stakes for Phil Kirby and Ben Curtis.

Trevolli got favourite-backers off to a good start (PA)

The three-year-old was beaten by half a length at Redcar earlier in the month on what was his first run for the trainer after leaving the care of Adam West, a performance he built on at Beverley to score by a head from Taylored.

A photo was required to split the first two past the post, but Kirby’s gelding just prevailed after being ridden prominently from the off.

The Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap then secured Curtis a double as he steered John Mackie’s Colony Queen  (7-1) to victory – and he made it a treble on the day when taking the concluding Bet Builder At bet365 Handicap aboard Bawaady (15-8 favourite) for Sir Michael Stoute.

Poet’s Lady provided Kevin Stott with a double when the filly triumphed in the Price Promise At bet365 Handicap for David Barron.

The jockey had already enjoyed success in the Hilary Needler Stakes aboard Lady Ayresome and returned to the winner’s enclosure with Barron’s filly after the duo justified their status as 2-1 favourites.

Registering a length-and-a-quarter victory, the four-year-old was ridden behind the race leaders until the final half-furlong before passing Fox Power to cross the line first of the field of nine.

Stat of the Day, 26th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Bangor : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Midfield, headway to chase leaders 9th, ridden before 2 out, stayed on to press leader last, stayed on well close home, just denied by a short head) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.05 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the racecard is my way into the race...

...with an in-form 6 yr old mare hailing from an in-form yard that does well with LTO winners. Other than the sex of the horse, you've pretty much got that there in front of you and to be honest, I'd be happy to draw stumps on today's piece and say that's why I'm backing this one.

If I did want to seek further reassurance, my next step would be to see if the horse would be suited to today's conditions and an opening glance at her record shows a fairly uninspiring 4 from 34 (11.8% SR), but she does come here seeking a hat-trick in Scotland since adopting blinkers and a closer look at those 34 runs gives me more confidence as they include under today's conditions...

  • 4/11 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/13 at 6-14 dslr
  • 3/11 in fields of 9-10 runners
  • 2/14 on the Flat
  • 2/12 in handicaps
  • 2/12  at class 6
  • 2/11 on soft ground
  • 2/11 going right handed
  • 2/10 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/3 in August
  • and 2/2 in blinkers

Trainer Dianne Sayer's excellent 2yr record with LTO winners above does also include her NH runners of course, so with today's contest in mind, I'm just going to add in that they include 6 winners from 11 (54.6% SR) for 21.35pts (+194.1% ROI) profit in Flat handicaps at odds ranging from 6/4 to 15/2 and although 11 races is a small sample size, they do include many similarities to today's situation, such as...

  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 23.35pts (+259.5%) within four weeks of their last run
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.14pts (+219.1%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 4/5 (80%) for 14.75pts (+295%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • 4/5 (80%) for 14.14pts (+282.8%) at class 6
  • 3/4 (75%) for 12.34pts (+308.5%) in Scotland
  • 3/4 (75%) for 11.52pts (+288%) in blinkers
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.72pts (+324%) with 6 yr olds
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.92pts (+130.7%) in August
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.65pts (+582.3%) on soft ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.25 Lingfield : Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 18/5 (Slightly slowly away and held up towards rear, ridden and quickened over 1f out, never nearer)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 9yr old gelding is clearly not the force he used to be, but this veteran of 109 previous contests proved he wasn't finished with a first win at just the third attempt for his new trainer last time out.

That was just over three months ago at Lingfield, but he now reverts back to the type of race where he has enjoyed most success in the past : a 6f Flat handicap, where he converts a career record of...

into this in Flat 6f handicaps at odds of Evens to 13/2...

It would have been convenient if any of those 6 wins had been here at Ripon, but none of the 14 races were at this venue, but not to worry, as trainer Ruth Carr is one of the trainers in my saved Query Tool angle for Ripon. She's one of seven trainers I look out for here, because blindly backing her handicappers here over the last three seasons has resulted in...

from which, she is...

  • 13/84 (15.5%) for 128.38pts (+152.8%) with male runners
  • 13/74 (17.6%) for 138.38pts (+187%) in fields of 6-16 runners
  • 13/72 (18.1%) for 140.38pts (+195%) in races worth less than £13k to the winner
    (combining these three stats above looks a logical progression, so see below)
  • 8/46 (17.4%) for 29.18pts (+63.4%) over this 6f C&D
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 57.49pts (+164.3%) in 4yo+ contests
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 10.92pts (+33.1%) at odds of 5/2 to 15/2
  • 7/52 (13.5%) for 105.2pts (+202.3%) with James Sullivan in the saddle
  • 3/15 (20%) for 17.75pts (+118.4%) on Good to Soft
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 19.75pts (+152%) in June

I suggested combining the first three sets of data and this tells us that male runners competing for a top prize of less than £13k in a field of 6-16 runners are 13 from 64 (20.3%) for 148.38pts (+231.8% ROI) profit at Betfair SP and these include winners at the following strike rates...

  • 30.8% (8 from 26) at 5/2 to 15/2
  • 27.6% (8/29) over this 6f C&D
  • 27.6% (8/29) in 4yo+ contests
  • 25% (3/12) in June
  • 21.4% (3/14) on Good to Soft
  • and 18.9% (7/37) for jockey James Sullivan...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!