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Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Haydock : Northern Beau @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Pressed leader to 5 out, outpaced in 4th next, went modest 3rd next, never able to get back on terms)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding finished 2nd LTO, three parts of a length behind the re-opposing Elite Icon here over 1m6f ten days ago, but I'm backing him to reverse placings as this is a furlong longer and our boy was staying on the better of the two last time and he's a pound better off today.

His trainer Iain Jardine has had 7 winners from 28 (25% SR), generating 65.2pts (+233% ROI) profit for his followers over the last fortnight, from which...

  • today's jockey Jamie Gormley is 4/17 (23.5%) for 58.7pts (+345.3%)
  • Class 6 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.65pts (+109.2%)
  • and Jamie is 2/4 (50%) for 6.42pts (+160.4%) on Iain's Class 6 entrants.

Moreover, since 2015, Iain's Flat handicappers racing at trips beyond a mile and a half are 37 from 207 (17.9% SR) for 85.9pts (+41.5% ROI) if backed blindly and these are excellent numbers, but if you didn't want to follow them blindly, here is "just" a dozen of the various possible profitable angles you could take from that approach, all of which are in play today, of course...

  • males are 27/153 (17.7%) for 98.2pts (+64.2%)
  • those who raced in the previous 25 days are 32/149 (21.5%) for 101.8pts (+68.3%)
  • over trips of 1m6f to 2m : 27/117 (23.1%) for 99.6pts (+85.1%)
  • in Scotland : 21/106 (19.8%) for 45pts (+42.4%)
  • here at Musselburgh : 14/73 (19.2%) for 14.9pts (+20.4%)
  • at Class 6  :13/67 (19.4%) for 8.1pts (+12.1%)
  • ridden by Jamie Gormley : 11/60 (18.3%) for 1.7pts (+2.9%)
  • up in trip by 1-3 furlongs : 16/51 (31.4%) for 79.1pts (+155.2%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/43 (25.6%) for 77pts (+179%)
  • at odds of 3/1 or shorter : 17/38 (44.7%) for 21.8pts (+57.3%)
  • LTO runners-up are 7/25 928%) for 40.9pts (+163.7%)
  • and those up 1 furlong are 4/12 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+87.6%)

...from which...males racing over 1m6f to 2m in NW England / Yorkshire / Scotland within 25 days of their last run are 17 from 58 (29.3% SR) for 110.9pts (+191.3% ROI), a much easier to operate/manage micro-system that also includes...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+161.8%) in Scotland
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 12.1pts (+63.8%) for Jamie Gormley
  • 6/17  (35.3%) for 12.4pts (+73%) here at Musselburgh
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.38pts (+112.7%) for Jamie here at Musselburgh...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Frame Rate @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.45 Chelmsford : Sonnet Rose @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 13/8 (Off the pace towards rear, still plenty to do 2f out, headway on outside over 1f out, hampered inside final furlong, kept on, too much to do)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 5, 1m Flat Handicap for 3yo+ on Good ground, worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding actually won this very race two years ago, when also down as carrying 9st 7lbs and more recently was only beaten by a head last time out. That was also over this course and distance, when he was nailed in the final strides 8 days ago. He runs off the same mark again today, so jockey Jamie Gormley's 3lb claim might just make all the difference here.

Jamie is riding well at present, winning 10 of his 54 rides (18.5% SR) over the last 4 weeks recording profits of 17.4pts at an ROI of 32.3% if anyone was backing him blindly and of those 54 rides, he is...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 19.2pts (+40.1%) on the Flat
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 24.4pts (+52%) in handicaps
  • 9/41 (22%) for 26.2pts (+64%) in Flat handicaps
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 16.3pts (+56.3%) in Scotland
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 19.3pts (+74.3%) in Flat handicaps run in Scotland
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.2pts (+73.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 20.2pts (+184%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 12.7pts (+211.3%) in Class 5 Flat handicaps run in Scotland!

I said that Zeshov won this race two years ago and narrowly failed over C&D last time out and these two runs form part of his 2 wins & 2 places from 5 runs at Musselburgh in total, including 2 wins, 2 places from four over this 1m course and distance : all at Class 5.

Now onto our trainer, Rebecca Bastiman, for she has done well here at this venue of late, seeing her horses win 10 of 45 (22.2% SR) handicaps over the last two seasons generating level stakes profits of 21.8pts (+48.6% ROI) and of these runners, who are all males by the way...

  • in fields of 6-10 runners : 9/34 (26.5%) for 26.9pts (+79.2%)
  • those rated (OR) 55-85 are 10/30 (33.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%)
  • 6-9 yr olds are 9/25 (36%) for 38.1pts (+152.4%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 9/25 (36%) for 22.8pts (+91.2%)
  • 6-20 days since last run : 6/22 (27.3%) for 22.2pts (+101%)
  • won or beaten by less than 4L LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.6pts (+97.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 6.87pts (+45.8%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 6.83pts (+75.9%)

AND...from the above...6-9 yr olds rated 55-85 at odds of 6/1 and shorter in fields of 6-10 runners are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 26.1pts (+217.8% ROI).

Although jockey Jamie Gormley has never actually ridden on this track for trainer Rebecca Bastiman before, the partnership has 3 wins from 8 (37.5% SR) for 5.83pts (+72.9% ROI) profit in Class 4/5 handicaps in Scotland this year, with a further 3 of the 5 losers making the frame...

...all pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Zeshov @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG, prices offered by SkyBet & Bet365 respecively as of 5.45pm on Thursday evening. I will, of course, be settling at 11/4 BOG,. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!