Tag Archive for: Jessica Harrington

‘I feel great’ – Jessica Harrington has much to be thankful for

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Jessica Harrington is remaining positive in the face of adversity as she continues to receive treatment for breast cancer.

The dual-purpose trainer, both a Classic and Cheltenham Festival winner, was diagnosed in October last year and spoke publicly about her health for the first time earlier this year.

Harrington, 76, is currently undergoing chemotherapy but has the bulk of the treatment behind her and is looking ahead to the new Flat season now the side-effects are beginning to subside.

“They got the medication to make me feel well right, whereas the three weeks before that I thought I’d died,” she said.

“This time it’s been absolutely great and I feel great, last night I went to bed and I was actually physically tired instead of sick tired and that was fantastic.

Jessica Harrington with Viareggio at the Curragh
Jessica Harrington with Viareggio at the Curragh (Brian Lawless/PA)

“It’s a big fright. It all happened really quickly. I said ‘all right, fine’, I didn’t really think about it, I just got on with it.

“Now I look back at it, when I’ve managed the last treatment on Monday I will have had 16 goes at chemo. Looking back I think, ‘how did I do that?’. My worst thing has been feeling sick.”

The racing community and the team at Harrington’s Kildare stable have rallied around the trainer, with daughters Emma and Kate stepping up to ensure the yard continues to run smoothly.

“Everyone’s been so kind, it is unbelievable how kind people are,” Harrington said.

“No one really knew until after Christmas, it was the beginning of February when I finally put it out there that I was on the sick list. People have been so kind, everyone round here has been so kind and are looking after me, it’s been fantastic.

Jessica and Kate Harrington
Jessica and Kate Harrington (PA)

“Kate’s been amazing, she hasn’t taken a day off since she went to Australia before Christmas. She’s taking two weeks off in the second week of May, as soon as she thinks I’m all right.

“Emma and Richie (Galway, Emma’s husband) and all the staff here, they’ve been fantastic, they’ve all co-operated and got on with their jobs and never complained. ”

Harrington has had some hospital stays throughout the course of her treatment but has never considered stepping back from the business more permanently during the illness.

She said: “I was in hospital for four days after Christmas and six days in February, then I didn’t know what the hell was going on. I came back and thought ‘oh, that one looks a bit better. That one looks all right!’.

“That’s a great thing, when you aren’t there and then you see a difference in them.”

Jessica and Kate Harrington with jockey Shane Foley
Jessica and Kate Harrington with jockey Shane Foley (Brian Lawless/PA)

Harrington’s approach to her diagnosis and treatment has been one of persistent positivity, helped by the solace of her yard and her love of horses.

“I wasn’t going to let it get the better of me, at times I felt it was but no, never,” she said.

“If you get up in a positive mood in the morning, you’re grand. I’m lucky, I live in a lovely place. I look at these horses every day and when I get up and look at that view towards the mountains, what have I got to complain about?”

Lifetime Ambition of National victory edging closer for Harrington

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Jessica Harrington has captured many big races in both codes of racing, but the decorated handler could have found an appropriately-named horse to fill the Randox Grand National-shaped void in her trophy cabinet.

Lifetime Ambition is the horse in question – an eight-year-old gelding who comes alive in the spring.

Twice a winner over the larger obstacles, he won a Grade Three at Limerick at this time of year last season, before going on to chase home Capodanno in a Grade One at the Punchestown Festival.

His Aintree credentials were on show during his reappearance in November when given a sighter of the famous green spruce in the Grand Sefton and having finished an eyecatching fourth on that occasion, the rest of his campaign has been geared around a return to Merseyside on April 15.

Lifetime Ambition ridden by Sean O’Keeffe on their way to winning the tote Ten To Follow Beginners Chase at Down Royal
Lifetime Ambition ridden by Sean O’Keeffe on their way to winning the tote Ten To Follow Beginners Chase at Down Royal (Brian Lawless/PA)

“He jumped very well and I was delighted with him,” said Harrington.

“I just hope the ground is OK, he likes nice spring ground, good to soft would be fine, he doesn’t like that tacky ground though.”

Following his appearance in Liverpool, Lifetime Ambition finished second to fellow Aintree contender The Big Dog in the Troytown at Navan – giving a bold sight in front until an error at the final fence allowed his rival to pass for a three-and-a-half-length victory.

He was then a respectable third to Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs in the John Durkan prior to Christmas and has been kept ticking over among useful company in the early stages of 2023.

All roads now lead back to Aintree where Harrington is confident he has the right attributes to thrive over the extended four-and-a-quarter-mile trip.

“He is going to definitely run in the National and Sean O’Keeffe is going to ride him. It’s all systems go.

“He’s a nice horse who stays well,” she added. “All of his form is in the spring of the year and that is when he comes into himself.

“He knows the fences, I think he will stay and he is a horse who will be up there on the front end, hopefully keeping out of trouble, and hopefully the race will get run the way he likes it.”

Harrington is one of the few trainers to do the Cheltenham Festival treble of the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase, while her National Hunt haul includes an Irish Grand National thanks to Our Duke in 2017.

Trainer Jessica Harrington will saddle Lifetime Ambition in the Randox Grand National
Trainer Jessica Harrington will saddle Lifetime Ambition in the Randox Grand National (Brian Lawless/PA)

The Grand National, however, is one that eludes her.

Despite her long career in the training ranks, it was not until 2019 she had her first runner in the big race when silver medallist Magic Of Light almost did the unthinkable and denied the great Tiger Roll at odds of 66-1.

Magic Of Light returned to Aintree much better fancied in 2021 only to unseat at the fourth, while the same year Jett blazed a trail on the front end for a long way until the petrol tank of the Sam Waley-Cohen-ridden outsider emptied at the second-last.

That small sample size though should not detract from the 76-year-old’s desire to taste success in Merseyside – a victory which would taste all the more sweeter in light of the news Harrington has been battling breast cancer.

“I would be delighted to win it, it is a race I have always wanted to win,” she said.

“Magic Of Light was my first runner in it and since then I’ve had her and Jett run in it in 2021.

“I haven’t had that many runners, but it would be lovely to win one.”

Connections hoping Diamond can sparkle at Fairyhouse

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Ashroe Diamond bids to give Willie Mullins back-to-back victories in the Awardsandgifts.ie Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday.

The six-year-old struck Grade Two glory in the mares’ bumper at Aintree’s Grand National Festival last spring and has continued to produce a fine level of form since transferring to hurdles this season.

Winner of a Naas maiden on her return, she has not been disgraced in a pair of Grade One events since, finishing third in both Punchestown’s Royal Bond and the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown.

The daughter of Walk In The Park is second favourite for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and has the chance to lay down a marker for that contest in this Grade Three event.

“We are looking forward to running, she’s in good order and we’re happy with her at home,” said James Fenton, club manager for owners Blue Blood Racing.

“Danny (Mullins) is riding her because Paul (Townend) is going to Cheltenham to ride Energumene and Patrick (Mullins) can’t do the weight and we’re delighted to see Danny get the leg-up – he’s as good a rider out there.

“We go with confidence and if she can reproduce the form of her last two runs, we give her every chance.

Ashroe Diamond ridden by Patrick Mullins celebrates winning the Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt at Aintree Racecourse
Ashroe Diamond ridden by Patrick Mullins celebrates winning the Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt at Aintree Racecourse (Nigel French/PA)

“It is a very competitive field and they all demand plenty of respect, but we would be very confident with our mare.”

Mullins is also represented by Saylavee who was on the scoresheet in Listed company at Punchestown last month, while owner Kenny Alexander won this in both 2020 and 2021 with Honeysuckle and Minella Melody respectively and sees his colours carried by the unbeaten Gordon Elliott-trained Halka Du Tabert this time.

Jessica Harrington’s Jetara is related to Champion Hurdle hero Jezki and made a pleasing hurdles debut when chasing home High Definition at Leopardstown.

Before that she won a Listed bumper at Navan and also has a course victory to her name.

“She is a nice horse and she seems to go on a bit softer ground than most of her relations – I just think she’s a really nice horse,” said Harrington.

“Two miles, two and a half furlongs at Fairyhouse will suit her. She won a bumper there over two and a half, she’s won a bumper over two miles and then last time she ran over two miles and was staying on all the way, so I think the distance is about right for her.”

Jetara kept on gamely to win the Listed Coolmore N.H. Sires In Swoop Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race at Navan
Jetara kept on gamely to win the Listed Coolmore N.H. Sires In Swoop Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race at Navan (PA)

A bold showing on Saturday could see the five-year-old book her ticket to Prestbury Park in March – with Harrington confirming the Mares’ Novice is on Jetara’s agenda, provided she continues on her upwards curve.

“The Mares’ Novice is two-miles-one and they’ll go a good gallop,” added Harrington.

“She was all out over two miles in the Listed bumper and stayed on well, so we’ll go on Saturday and see what happens.”

Joseph O’Brien’s Goodie Two Shoes and Jarlath Fahey’s track-and-trip scorer Whatcouldhavebeen complete the line-up.

Two-year-old Flat Debutants, Part 2

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In part 1 of this series, here, I suggested that if we were looking to blindly back two-year-olds on their flat debut this season, our starting point should initially be those juveniles trained by Richard Fahey, Jessica Harrington and Ger Lyons, writes Chris Worrall. As well as that standout trio, I was also interested in those trained by Paul Cole, Eve Johnson Houghton and David Simcock, notwithstanding the reservations I highlighted about those three.

I went on to highlight in that opening piece that we may be able to eliminate some bad bets by focusing more on each trainer's runners based on a series of factors: track location, actual track, race class/distance/going, jockeys used, time of year and sex of horse.

Richard Fahey

So, if we start with our three headline acts, we can see that Richard Fahey's results with 2yo flat debutants from 2016-19 were as follows:

Closer inspection of those 381 runners showed no real bias towards either gender or for any particular reported ground conditions, but of the other five tested variables, I found (in sample size order) that those numbers included:

  • 55/363 (15.15%) for 135.66pts (+37.37%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 53/359 (14.76%) for 125.13pts (+34.85%) during April to September
  • 51/339 (15.04%) for 122.82pts (+36.24%) in Yorkshire, NW & Central England
  • 47/314 (14.97%) for 132.07pts (+42.06%) at Classes 4 & 5
  • 38/236 (16.10%) for 92.88pts (+39.36%) ridden by Tony Hamilton or Paul Hanagan

(all profit quoted is to Betfair Starting Price, BSP)

And when combine all those filters, we are left with...

Suggestion: back all Richard Fahey 2yo Flat debutants ridden by Tony Hamilton or Paul Hanagan at up to 7 furlongs in Class 4 or 5 races in Yorkshire, the North West or Central England during April to September.

Jessica Harrington

And now onto Jessica Harrington, whose 2016-19 stats were...

From which (in order of winners)...

  • 18/114 (15.79%) for 81.5pts (+71.49%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 15/122 (12.3%) for 23.28pts (+19.08%) in Leinster
  • 15/104 (14.42%) for 56.85pts (+54.67%) on ground declared as Good to Yielding or firmer
  • 15/80 (18.75%) for 80.7pts (+100.88%) during May to July
  • 13/95 (13.68%) for 26.94pts (+28.35%) with female runners

And combining trip, track location, going and time of year gives us...

             

of which the gender spilt is as follows....

The females win more often, but the males generate more profit, so I'm not really convinced we should narrow it down either way.

Suggestion: back Jessica Harrington's 2 year olds on debut in Leinster (Bellewstown, Curragh, Fairyhouse, Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Naas, Navan) during May to July at trips up to 7 furlongs and on ground described as Good to Yielding or firmer.

Ger Lyons

The final member of our top trio is Ger Lyons, who qualified on his record over the last three seasons of...

Once again, we'll subject those runners to the filtering system, where it can be noted:

  • 30/130 (23.08%) for 90.71pts (+69.78%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 30/125 (24%) for 95.71pts (+76.57%) during April to September
  • 29/137 (21.17%) for 76.78pts (+56.05%) on ground deemed Soft or better
  • 29/136 (21.32%) for 79.30pts (+58.31%) in Leinster and Munster
  • 28/116 (24.14%) for 79.07pts (+68.16%) when ridden by Colin Keane

and when we combine those five sets of data, we end up with a fantastic set of numbers reading...

Once again both sexes fare well as follows...

...so we'll not differentiate between the two.

Suggestion: back all Ger Lyons' 2 yo debutants ridden by Colin Keane over trips of 6f to a mile in Leinster (see above for tracks) and Munster (Cork, Killarney, Limerick, Listowel, Thurles, Tipperary) on Soft ground or better from April to September.

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Those were the three main protagonists from part 1 of this series; combining their two-year-old flat debutants under the specified conditions brings us to 66 winners from 293 runners (22.53% SR) and 266.74pts of profit at an excellent ROI of some 91.04%.

Clearly it will be difficult to fully repeat those numbers but if they only do half as well in the next three or four years we'll still be looking at 130+ points.

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So what of our 'second string' trio of Paul Cole, Eve Johnson Houghton and David Simcock? Are there conditions under which we might follow their juvenile debutants?

The easiest way to find out is to dive into the data, starting with...

Paul Cole

Cole's base figures with 2yo first-time starters are:

That's a small sample size so caution is advised, but they do include of note...

  • 6/35 (17.14%) for 68.1pts (+194.57%) in Classes 4 and 5
  • 6/30 (20%) for 73.1pts (+243.67%) over trips of 5 or 6 furlongs
  • 6/29 (20.69%) for 74.1pts (+255.52%) during April to July
  • 6/14 (42.86%) for 89.1pts (+636.43%) at Brighton, Leicester & Newbury
  • 5/28 (17.86%) for 31.35pts (+111.96%) in SE England
  • 3/10 (30%) for 60.92pts (+609.2%) with Raul Da Silva in the saddle

You probably don't need me to point out how Paul got all of his six original winners, but combining those first four filters gives...

Suggestion: keep an eye out for Paul Cole 2yo firsters in Class 4 or 5 races over 5 or 6 furlongs at Brighton, Leicester or Newbury from April to July, especially if Raul da Silva's on board, even if it's a big price.

Eve Johnson Houghton

Next up is Eve Johnson Houghton, whose own record during the last four seasons was...

...which, like Paul Cole previously, was a smaller than ideal sample size, but did include...

  • 8/52 (15.38%) for 141.35pts (+271.82%) excluding April and July
  • 7/62 (11.29%) for 98.02pts (+158.10%) in Classes 4 and 5
  • 7/46 (15.22%) for 106.94pts (+232.48%) over 6 or 7 furlongs
  • 6/47 (12.77%) for 120.04pts (+255.41%) in SE England
  • 6/41 (14.63%) for 88.22pts (+215.16%) ridden by Charles Bishop
  • 6/37 (16.22%) for 142.18pts (+384.26%) from female runners
  • and 5/21 (23.81%) for 42.74pts (+203.52%) on Good to Soft or Soft ground

Combining class, month, distance and going gives us...

...and despite this dozen qualifiers include 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 48.5pts (+392.7%) for Charles Bishop, 3 from 6 (50%) for 43.6pts (+726.2%) for females and 3 from 6 (50%) for 31.4pts (+524%) in the South East, there is an uneasy feel to the exclusion of April and July - I can't come up with a logical reason why the horses would fail to fire in that month. Instead, I've taken a more straightforward view...

Suggestion: Look out for Eve Johnson Houghton's Class 4 and 5 runners over 6 or 7 furlongs on Good to Soft or Soft ground. Add a bonus point if you see Charles Bishop down to ride.

David Simcock

And finally for this look at trainers who perform well with juvenile first time starters, we'll put David Simcock under the microscope, despite his sobering record last season (0 from 20). Even with that abject campaign, his four year score is...

and again we've only a small number of runners to consider, but they do include...

  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 18.65pts (+60.17%) when ridden by Jamie Spencer
  • 4/20 (20%) for 49.15pts (+245.76%) over a mile
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 27.4pts (+182.66%) at Yarmouth
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 23.6pts (+168.6%) for Jamie Spencer over a mile
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 28.6pts (+317.8%) for Jamie Spencer at Yarmouth
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 30.6pts (+437.1%) over a mile at Yarmouth
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 32.69pts Jamie Spencer over a mile at Yarmouth

Obviously the Jamie Spencer angle is interesting, especially over a mile at Yarmouth, but I feel that particular stat lends more to the excellent record the jockey and trainer have together at that venue (a story for another day, perhaps?), but as for this piece...

Suggestion: Note, but don't necessarily back, David Simcock two-year-old flat debutants.

*

All of which second team deliberation leaves us with just the Paul Cole and Eve Johnson Houghton runners, whose suggested angles combine for 11 winners from 22 runners (50% SR) and 144.84 pts (+658.6% ROI) as a juicy-looking - but less reliable based on sample size - supplement to our top trio's 66 winners from 293 runners (22.53% SR, +266.74 BSP, ROI of 91.04%).

Hopefully, we'll soon be able to "live trial" these angles. Fingers crossed and all that, but for now, thanks for reading and I'll be back with more soon.

 - CW

Attrition Rate in Irish National Hunt

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Killultagh Vic a High Profile Casualty

Killultagh Vic a High Profile Casualty

Killultagh Vic was the first high-profile Irish horse to miss Cheltenham with injury but you can be sure he won’t be the last, writes Tony Keenan. We are in that horrible space between the conclusion of most of the trials and the start of the Festival where owners, trainers and, yes, punters live in terror of hearing that their horse will miss the meeting with a late setback.

It makes sense that injuries should occur at this time. No more than a human athlete getting ready for a career-defining event, the revs are being cranked up to the max in preparation and it is inevitable that a gasket or two will blow in the process. Some trainers has succeeded more than others in avoiding – or preventing – the last-minute injury; Willie Mullins stands out in terms of getting his Cheltenham horses to end point and punters can rightly have faith in backing one of his runners ante-post at a short price in the relatively safe assumption that they will get to post. But other handlers have not been so fortunate (though perhaps fortunate is the wrong word as it is surely a skill to keep horses sound).

Predicting which trainers’ runners will make or miss Cheltenham by looking at data is difficult if not impossible and it makes more sense to look at a more global sense of how successful they are in keeping their horses sound from season to season. In the table below, I’ve focussed on the top 15 Irish trainers in terms of winners sent out in the six seasons from 2009/10 to 2014/15, leaving out those who are no longer training, i.e. Dessie Hughes and Charlie Swan.

I found every horse they had in that period that acquired an Irish official rating of 130 or more and went through their racing career in totality regardless of whether it began before 2009 or continued beyond 2015. I was looking for how many ‘full seasons’ they had in their careers and I took a very loose definition of what a full season was: a season in which a horse ran twice or more in the Irish National Hunt campaign which takes the Punchestown Festival as its start and end point.

To my mind, this is quite a lenient definition of a full season – many owners would want their horses to run far more regularly – but I was giving trainers the benefit of the doubt and I didn’t penalise for a horse only running once in their first season as trainers often want to start them off slowly. With the number of full seasons and missed seasons I worked out a figure called ‘attrition rate’ which expresses as a percentage how often a trainer’s horses miss a season in relation to their career as a whole.

Take Tony Martin as an example. In the period covered, he has 131 full seasons from his 130-plus rated horses and six missed seasons; I add the two together to get a total season figure which is 137 and then divide the missed season number into it to leave an attrition rate of 4.4%. As a back-up figure, I also added in how many runs a trainer’s horses averaged per season over that period.

This methodology is far from perfect. Firstly, it looks only at horses rated 130 or more, but the data was so overwhelming that were I to look at them all I’d struggle to have it finished for Cheltenham 2017! It also supposes that every National Hunt horse threads the same campaign trail, starting its season in the autumn and running through to the late spring/early summer. This is not the case with summer jumpers and many horses will have a winter break to avoid the worst of ground.

Using my method, horses could miss two calendar years but only one racing season. Monksland, say, missed 730 days between December 2012 and December 2014 but raced three times in the 2012/13 season and the same in 2014/15 campaign so is only penalised for being absent in 2013/14.

Furthermore, trainers are not penalised for horses having a short career of a season or two but they are hit for getting a horse back off an absence of a season or two for just one run, despite the fact that this could be a major achievement if that horse has had serious problems. Despite all this, I think there is enough in the data to make it interesting to look at, if not necessarily of vast predictive value.

Trainer Horses Rated 130 Plus Attrition Rate Average Season Runs
C. Byrnes 19 15.9% 5.4
C. Murphy 13 10.3% 4.5
N. Meade 53 8.8% 5.0
W. Mullins 171 7.0% 4.2
R. Tyner 6 6.7% 4.7
M. Hourigan 16 6.5% 7.3
M. Morris 17 5.6% 6.0
T. Martin 39 4.4% 5.4
G. Elliott 58 4.3% 6.1
H. De Bromhead 36 4.1% 4.7
P. Nolan 22 3.2% 5.2
E. Doyle 7 2.6% 6.3
J. Hanlon 8 2.4% 5.6
E. O’Grady 27 1.6% 5.4
J. Harrington 31 1.6% 6.1

 

We’ll start with Willie Mullins as we generally do. He has a highish attrition rate and the lowest average season runs so comes out quite badly on these numbers though I doubt Rich Ricci, Graham Wylie et al will be moving their horses in light of them! In fairness, he has improved recently with most of his absentees coming in the early part of the period covered though it must be said that he has quite a few horses that are in danger of missing this campaign, the likes of Abyssial, Jarry D’Honneur, Champagne Fever and Analifet all on the easy list at the moment.

Charles Byrnes has a very high attrition rate, 5.6% higher than the next highest, so perhaps landing gambles takes its toll! His achievement in bringing the nine-year-old Solwhit back to win at Cheltenham and Aintree in 2013 was a notable one but it seems significant that so many of his best horses have missed chunks of time, the likes of Mounthenry, Pittoni, Trifolium, Weapons Amnesty and Our Vinnie all having stop-start careers.

Colm Murphy is another that comes out poorly on the numbers, having not only a high attrition rate but also a low average runs per season, though the reason behind this could be one discussed in a previous article of mine on fall/unseat rate where he came out as one of the highest in the country. Falls and unseats will clearly cause plenty of injuries.

One trainer who does quite well is Gordon Elliott, his horses generally sound and running often, and it needs to be pointed out that he gets quite a few stable switchers. That can be viewed positively or negatively; either someone else has done all the hard work or you have to rectify another trainer’s mistakes.

Noel Meade is having a torrid season in terms of injuries, with Road To Riches having a curtailed campaign and Apache Stronghold out for the year. His attrition rate, third overall, would suggest this is not uncommon. One thing to admire with Meade is that no one else comes close in terms of openness around his horses’ health and he must be praised for that.

In terms of positives, Jessica Harrington stands out as having a low attrition rate and a high average number of runs. I would put this down to two things: she tends to mix flat and jumps campaigns, the former clearly less attritional than the latter; and she will often give her horses mid-winter breaks to avoid the worst of ground, something she frequently references in stable tours.

Edward O’Grady has the name of being hard on his horses but the numbers suggest otherwise, coming in the equal of Harrington in attrition rate. Henry De Bromhead has relatively a low attrition rate too, albeit with not many average season runs, and tends to do well in keeping older horses sweet. Sizing Europe is the daddy of them all but the likes of Sizing Australia and Darwins Fox are further feathers in de Bromhead’s cap.

Finally, mention must go to Michael Hourigan. His attrition rate percentage is only average but he is brilliant in terms of getting runs into his horses, his average of 7.3 a full run per season better than anyone else. I won’t say his horses are always in form but at least they’re out there competing and it is notable that eight of his 16 horses rated 130 plus raced at least 30 times. There are some real heroes in there like Dancing Tornado and Church Island and of course A New Story who ran an amazing 110 times, often over staying trips, and was still racing at fifteen.

- Tony Keenan