Mohaafeth prevails in dramatic Hampton Court

Mohaafeth continued his rapid progression up the ranks when winning a dramatic running of the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot.

William Haggas’ charge was among the favourites for the Cazoo Derby earlier this month, but heavy rain on the Friday turned the ground softer than the trainer felt his charge wanted.

Having agonised over the decision to run, Haggas took him out just over an hour before the race and immediately nominated this contest as his alternative target – and from the point of view of connections the late switch was justified.

It turned into a messy contest, however, with Matchless, Movin Time and Snapraeterea all racing keenly in the early stages and Jim Crowley content to let them get on with it on Mohaafeth (11-8 favourite).

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Haggas would have been delighted the forecast heavy rain overnight failed to materialise and Crowley moved his mount wide to challenge in the straight.

Unfortunately Mohaafeth then began to hang right handed towards the rail – while also quickening clear with Roman Empire – and although going clear of his only rival, the Frankel colt ended up drifting to his right and Ryan Moore had to stop riding briefly on Roman Empire.

The stewards inevitably had a look, leading to a tense wait for connections of Mohaafeth before he was confirmed the winner by a length and three-quarters.

Mohaafeth was clear at the line
Mohaafeth was clear at the line (David Davies/PA)

Haggas was delighted with the result, but was not getting too carried away.

He said: “He’s only up to Group Three from Listed, but he’s a pretty good horse.

“I think it probably didn’t go his way today. Jim was concerned about the horse of Roger Varian’s (Movin Time) who was up the front and he was quite far behind and he said, by his own admission, he’d gone a bit early, but the horse kept going, that’s the main thing.

“He did run across the track a bit, but he’s probably used up a lot of petrol getting there.”

Mohaafeth was immediately halved in price to 8-1 by Coral for next month’s Eclipse, but Haggas was in no rush to map out plans.

“I think if he’s going to go one way, he’ll go shorter not longer. I was always concerned about the trip in the Derby, but there is only one of them and then when it rained it became, for me, an easier decision not to run him. That’s history now, let’s move on.

“He’s won a Listed and a Group Three, he’s not tackled an older horse yet so he’s got a lot to prove, but I think he’s got some talent.

“I think he’s pretty good. I don’t make comparisons with others, but he’s a useful horse. He’s always been a nice horse and he’s bred to be a good horse. I thought he looked great today and he doesn’t look a stayer physically.

“He’s in the Eclipse, he’s in lots of things and will continue to be in lots of things and we’ll see where we go. That’s obviously the first target, if there is one, but it can’t be good to soft, soft or anything like that – he’s a quick ground horse.”

Al Aasy in cruise control – now Coronation Cup beckons

Al Aasy oozed class and is now a short price for the Coronation Cup following what amounted to a victory stroll in the Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury.

Sent off the 10-11 favourite for the Group Three following a similarly impressive display in the John Porter earlier in the year, the four-year-old faced stiffer opposition this time.

Last year’s Dante winner Thunderous and 2019 St Leger winner Logician were among the opposition – but Jim Crowley did not move in the saddle as the William Haggas-trained colt breezed to a four-length success.

Thunderous chased him home, but the winning distance could easily have been doubled.

“He won very well. He settled well and won very well and I can’t really say more than that, as he looks like that at home – he’s a talented horse,” said Haggas, who has never hidden his admiration for his charge.

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“He’s done well this year and we’ll find out in the Coronation Cup – as that is where he is going next – how good he is.

“They never get quick ground at Epsom and we’ve got one in the Derby (Mohaafeth) that needs it quick and it is bound to rain for him – if it does that will suit Al Aasy.

“He didn’t surprise me. We were really gutted with him in the Gordon Stakes last year, but that race was a mess and the ground was very quick.

“He’s talented and is in everything we could possibly put him in. We’ll put him in the Arc, but there’s a long way to go before then.

“I’d fancy coming back to 10 (furlongs) with him, but I’m not sure. He’s pretty good at a mile and a half and there are some pretty nice races at that trip, starting with Epsom and then Ascot in the summer (King George).

“If he’s going to run in the Arc he’ll need a break at some stage. I wasn’t going to run him today, I was going to go straight to Epsom, but he needed a race as he was too well.

“He’s got a long way to go, he’s won two Group Threes, but he’s a good horse.

“He’s a very enthusiastic horse, but the good thing is in both races this year he’s dropped the bridle. Jim is getting his confidence in him now which we’ve always had, but he – quite rightly – had lost a bit after Goodwood.”

Crowley was equally as impressed and said: “He’s a monster of a horse, I just had a double handful throughout.

“He’s a bit of a handful and I think that is why William wanted to give him another race, but he gave me a great ride – he sort of dragged me to the front.

“You don’t get many horses give you that sort of feel. He appreciated the cut in the ground, but hopefully he hasn’t stopped improving.

“We’ll see where we go from Epsom.”

Paddy Power initially cut Al Aasy into 2-1 (from 9-2) for the Coronation Cup, but were forced to go shorter still at 7-4.

Easy does it for classy Al Aasy

Al Aasy justified strong market confidence with an imperious display in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes at Newbury.

The Group Three, registered as the John Porter Stakes, has been used by some smart types as a starting point in recent years, including subsequent Coronation Cup winner Defoe and a Melbourne Cup runner-up Marmelo.

It would be no surprise if Al Aasy (6-4 favourite) went on to prove himself every bit as good as those two, given the manner of this display.

Settled at the rear by Jim Crowley as Euchen Glen and Tyson Fury set the gallop, Al Aasy cruised into contention at the two-furlong pole.

Without A Fight briefly hit the front but before Andrea Atzeni had chance to think about winning, Crowley loomed up on his outside and quickened up impressively, going on to score by four and a half lengths.

The victory topped a great weekend for William Haggas, whose globetrotter Addeybb grabbed another Grade One in Australia on Saturday.

Assistant trainer Maureen Haggas said: “He was fresh today, he’s a bit of a character and needs racing to make him grow up. He was pretty much above himself today, but is visibly twice the horse to look at before he won over a mile and five.

“The plans are William’s department, but I think the Coronation Cup is an option.”

Mutasaabeq advertises Classic potential with Newmarket strike

Mutasaabeq emerged as a potential Classic contender after making an impressive start to his campaign at Newmarket.

A winner at the track on his sole juvenile start in October, the Charlie Hills-trained colt was a 7-2 chance on his return to the Rowley Mile for the bet365 British EBF Conditions Stakes.

Ridden by Jim Crowley, the son of Invincible Spirit – owned and bred by the late Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum – was sent straight to the lead and it was impossible not to be impressed by the way he extended six lengths clear at the line.

Hills said: “The way the track is and with the wind behind them, it is a bit of an advantage being in front. He has won on heavy ground, but he loved the ground today.

“We are always learning, but I think he is a very talented horse.”

Mutasaabeq is out of the top-class racemare Ghanaati, who won the 1000 Guineas in 2009 for the same connections.

Hills decided against entering Mutasaabeq for the 2000 Guineas on May 1, but did not rule out the possibility of supplementing the colt, with Betfair giving him a quote of 12-1.

Hills added: “We’ll discuss it with the management and discuss what’s best for the horse.

“We didn’t put him in the 2000 Guineas and we spoke about it at length as we were a little bit concerned temperament-wise, so we wanted to go down the soft route.

“We can have a discussion now about putting him in a race like that, but there are plenty of good races after – we could run him in a Listed race here and then go on to Royal Ascot, maybe.

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“We are mindful it is a long season and there are plenty of good races we can aim for.”

Carolus Magnus stretches clear of his Newmarket rivals
Carolus Magnus stretches clear of his Newmarket rivals (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Andrew Balding’s Carolus Magnus confirmed debut promise with victory in the opening Alex Scott Maiden Stakes.

Third on his Doncaster debut a couple of weeks ago, the 11-2 chance opened his account with a near two-length verdict under Oisin Murphy.

“He has done really well as he had a pretty serious injury as a two-year-old. Very unusually, he split both front pasterns, so full credit to him – he has done amazingly well to come back,” said Balding.

“They are patient, understanding owners, Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds, and they always come up with good horses. It helped he knew what he was doing today, but he is a fair horse.

“He could go a mile, so we will look at our options and make a plan from there.”

Forca Brasil (purple) edges ahead
Forca Brasil (purple) edges ahead (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Murphy went on to complete a first and last race double aboard Arecibo (9-2), who made a successful first start for trainer Robert Cowell in the Handicap.

Forca Brasil made a winning introduction for George Boughey in the bet365 British EBF Novice Stakes.

The 4-1 shot, who runs in the colours of football agent Kia Joorabchian’s Amo Racing Limited, was due to run in the Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster, but had to be withdrawn on veterinary advice.

He proved his class at Newmarket, however – scoring by three-quarters of a length in the hands of Rossa Ryan to leave connections dreaming of Royal Ascot glory.

Joorabchian said: “Hopefully he will be a good horse and lead us into more fun things to come.

“It is still a little bit of a way to go to Ascot, but that is the aim and we are always trying to get there.”

Boughey added: “He has worked a few times here and it has been good.

“He looks a Norfolk horse probably, but he has done it nicely today.”

Overwrite (right) under Franny Norton
Overwrite (right) under Franny Norton (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Mark Johnston’s Overwrite (16-5) claimed a narrow verdict in the Pat Smullen Memorial Handicap under a power-packed ride from Franny Norton.

Charlie Johnston, assistant to his father, said: “That was top class from the jockey and it was a masterclass on how to ride this track. I think I knew from about 200 yards in that he was going to win.

“It was a good performance. He is probably the type to try to get high enough up in the weights to sneak into the Royal Hunt Cup.”

Of Smullen, Johnston added: “It is a very nice race to win for sure. He is not someone I knew particularly well, but he was obviously a very inspirational figure in the industry, particularly what he did in his later years in trying to do as much for the benefit of others when his time was coming.”

Double Or Bubble (15-2), not seen since scoring at Ascot in September, made a superb reappearance for Chris Wall in the Price Promise At bet365 Handicap, with Jack Mitchell the winning pilot.

Wall said: “Mix And Mingle (full sister) won this race, then she won the Chartwell at Lingfield and we thought that would be on the radar for Double Or Bubble.

“She is a bit more laidback than Mix And Mingle and she will probably get a mile, so the Conqueror Stakes at Goodwood on May 1 could be another option, but we will have to see how she takes the race.

“I thought she would run well as she has been working well. I didn’t quite expect her to do that, but you live in hope.”

Brilliant Battaash was the latest sprint king for Sheikh Hamdan

It is quite fitting the first and latest of Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum’s champion owner titles are most remembered for a sprinter.

Dayjur was the horse that lit up the 1990 campaign with five consecutive victories in the Temple Stakes, King’s Stand, Nunthorpe, Haydock Sprint Cup and Prix de l’Abbaye, before his agonising defeat in the Breeders’ Cup.

Last season it was Battaash, who finally added a Royal Ascot triumph in the King’s Stand on the way to winning the King George Stakes at Goodwood for a fourth time and claiming back-to-back victories in the Nunthorpe at York.

Battaash was one of six winners in the familiar blue and white colours at Royal Ascot, which was held behind closed doors due to the pandemic.

Battaash and Jim Crowley return in triumph after the King’s Stand Stakes
Battaash and Jim Crowley return in triumph after the King’s Stand Stakes (Edward Whitaker/PA)

All six were partnered by Sheikh Hamdan’s retained rider Jim Crowley.

He knows Sheikh Hamdan, who died on Wednesday at the age of 75, would have loved to have been in attendance.

“It was such a shame last year Sheikh Hamdan couldn’t come to Royal Ascot due to Covid and watch the horses run,” he said.

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“He had the most unbelievable year in 2020. But before that we’d had some great days.

“When Sheikh Hamdan came to the races we always had luck. It was great he could be at York to see Battaash win in 2019. That was probably one of the most satisfying days. It was great he could be there as well.”

Jim Crowley kisses the trophy after riding Battaash to the first of his two victories in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York
Jim Crowley kisses the trophy after riding Battaash to the first of his two victories in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York (Simon Cooper/PA)

Crowley, who replaced Paul Hanagan as Sheikh Hamdan’s number one at the end of 2016, felt such pride at taking the coveted position.

“It was a huge honour and a privilege to be able to to ride for him,” he said.

“He was extremely knowledgeable about his horses. He had a lot of horses in training, but he knew their pedigree inside and out. It was a huge passion for him, he loved it.

“He was very kind and generous, and loyalty is a word that stands out more than the others. You only have to look at his trainers, jockeys – everybody has been with him for the long haul. It’s just a real pleasure to have ridden for him.”

Crowley went on: “He built up a huge legacy and he’ll be missed by a lot of people.

“Sheikh Hamdan would always strive to have good horses and breed good horses as well. It’s a huge loss. He was a wonderful man and will be missed dearly.

“It’s very, very sad.”

Battaash is trained by Charlie Hills, who knew Sheikh Hamdan most of his life.

He was a big supporter of the Hills family, with Barry and son Charlie training for him and another son, Richard, being one of his retained jockeys.

Trainer Charlie Hills punches the air after Battaash finally wins at Royal Ascot
Trainer Charlie Hills punches the air after Battaash finally wins at Royal Ascot (Ed Whitaker/PA

“If you think of Sheikh Hamdan’s horses, then Battaash would have to be in the top three,” Charlie Hills said.

“Muhaarar was brilliant, winning four consecutive Group Ones as a three-year-old. He’s the only sprinter to do that. He was a highlight.

“He was the best to train for. It’s very sad. He’s been a constant presence in my life. He’s had horses with our family since the late 1990s and he’s been a great supporter.

“Sheikh Hamdan was not only a major owner-breeder, but he was always a huge presence at the sales.”

New protocols allow British-based jockeys to apply for quarantine exemption

British-based jockeys riding at ParisLongchamp this weekend can apply to be exempt from quarantine on their return after the British Horseracing Authority confirmed an addition to its Elite Traveller Exemption protocols for elite sportspeople and essential support staff.

The new protocol – which is effective immediately and also includes trainers and stable staff – covers those who are frequent travellers for competition in a country not covered by the travel corridor exemption.

As things stood, those riding in France this weekend at the Arc meeting would have needed to self-isolate for seven days under the elite sportsperson’s exemption, rather than the standard 14 days.

Earlier in the season, Frankie Dettori – who will ride Enable in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – was forced to choose between riding Palace Pier and Mishriff at Deauville, then completing a spell in isolation, or being available for York’s Ebor meeting – and he chose France.

Frankie Dettori will be free to ride at Newmarket's Future Champions meeting after riding Enable
Frankie Dettori will be free to ride at Newmarket’s Future Champions meeting after riding Enable (Alan Crowhurst/PA)
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With the likes of Dettori, Ryan Moore, Andrea Atzeni, Jim Crowley and Oisin Murphy keen to be able to ride at Newmarket’s Future Champions Day the following weekend, the ease in the restrictions will be most welcome, with Crowley now having the opportunity to partner Battaash in the Prix de l’Abbaye and be in action at Newmarket.

Under the new protocol, jockeys, trainers and stable staff who make frequent trips abroad for competition at Covid-19 secure venues in non-exempt countries may choose to register for a ‘Frequent Private Traveller’ option.

The BHA said that while actively under the program, which requires regular weekly testing and daily post-travel monitoring with the BHA chief medical adviser Dr Jerry Hill, individuals who travel to compete at international venues on day trips and via private transport will be exempt from self-isolation on their return.

For the first seven days after return to the UK, individuals are only exempt from self-isolation for the purposes of training or competing. Otherwise, they must self-isolate as usual.

Jim Crowley is now in line to ride Battaash this weekend
Jim Crowley is now in line to ride Battaash this weekend (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Individuals must register with Dr Hill at least four days before their first trip abroad, with journeys to and from the international venue to be undertaken in private cars or planes and return journeys to be completed on the same day with no overnight stays.

Private cars must have a maximum of two occupants and private flights must only be shared if two-metre social distancing can be maintained.

Monitoring of individuals who travel under the scheme will last for a minimum of 21 days and will include a weekly Covid-19 test organised through the BHA medical department and funded by the applicant, with the first test result returned prior to the initial trip abroad.

A minimum of three tests will be required under the scheme – which was developed by Dr Hill in consultation with the Professional Jockeys Association and senior riders – with two taking place after any trip.

Alkumait claims clear-cut Mill Reef verdict

Alkumait ran out an impressive winner of the Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.

A quality field of eight colts went to post for the Group Two contest, with runaway Newcastle scorer Fivethousandtoone the narrow favourite at 5-2, ahead of Prix Morny third Rhythm Master at 3-1.

Beaten a length on his debut over the course and distance in July, the Marcus Tregoning-trained Alkumait looked an exciting horse in the making when winning on his second start at Goodwood, but nevertheless faced a significant step up in class on his return to Berkshire.

Drawn widest of all in stall one, the 8-1 shot was taken back by Jim Crowley after the starting stalls opened and settled at the rear of the field for much of the race.

However, he made quick headway to challenge for the lead entering the final furlong – and finished off strongly to hold Fivethousandtoone at bay by three-quarters of a length, with Rhythm Master almost three lengths further away in third.

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Tregoning said of the winner: “It has been one of those nice upward curves with him. I worked him on some faster ground this week and I could see he was very good on it.

“He is not jarred and doesn’t feel the ground and he will progress and go on.”

Marcus Tregoning with the now-retired Mohaather
Marcus Tregoning with the now-retired Mohaather (Edward Whitaker/PA)

The victory was a significant boost for the Derby-winning trainer following the enforced retirement of his stable star Mohaather last month due to injury.

He added: “I knew we had this one coming through (after Mohaather), we just had to keep him right.

“He’s stabled right next door to my house. If he moves, like Mohaather did through the night, it wakes me up, but it is worth it.”

Tregoning is keen to test Alkumait’s stamina to see if he could be a contender for next year’s 2000 Guineas over a mile.

He said: “There is a lot of speed on the dam’s side, but if we are allowed, and everybody agrees, we will try to mould him to at least get seven furlongs and then after that we will see.

“If you could get him to drop in and settle, like he did today, there is every chance he will get a little bit further. I think that is the way to go. It opens up the game plan a bit. We could always come back to six furlongs.

“He was a little bit hairy going down to the start and a couple of times during the race the wind was blowing a bit and this little horse could hear the covers rattling. It’s just a thing he has to get used to

“He couldn’t have been more smooth through the race. He came from last to move up swiftly and he was going away at the end. I think he is pretty useful.

“When I saw him get loose one day was when I first thought he was good. He did injure one of my staff quite badly. He is just well made and has the same power down the saddle that Mohaather did – he is very similar.

“Sheikh Hamdan may want to put him away after today, but I’d be keen to run him in Group One company before the end of the season if there is a suitable race.”

Elarqam bounces back to form with Legacy win

Elarqam got his career back on track with a front-running victory in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup at Newbury.

A son of Frankel out of the yard’s brilliant racemare Attraction, Mark Johnston’s has largely upheld family honour well, with Group Three and Group Two triumphs featuring among his five previous career wins.

However, since a promising start to the season when touched off by Lord North at Haydock, the five-year-old has disappointed in both the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and when bidding for back-to-back successes in the York Stakes.

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Jim Crowley’s mount was a 2-1 shot for his latest assignment and led his three rivals from the off.

Admirable veteran Desert Encounter – winner of this Group Three contest in 2017 and 12 months ago – emerged as the biggest threat in the final furlong, but Elarqam dug deep to see him off by a length and a half.

Market leader Extra Elusive (6-4) was third, with Gifts Of Gold last of the quartet.

Elarqam (centre) proved too good at Newbury
Elarqam (centre) proved too good at Newbury (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Johnston said: “It is great to see him back winning. It’s a shame it hasn’t been on a big day this year.

“If you look at his form last year, you would have said he should be winning a Group One this year and unfortunately it hasn’t fallen his way. We were running out of opportunities and that is why we came here, as there wasn’t really anywhere else to go. Everything has gone his way today, so it was good to see.

“It has been a frustrating season. When you look at his run in the Juddmonte last year, you would have said he showed there he was well and truly a Group One horse.

“With a pedigree like his, you would expect to see him get a Group One for a good stud job. I’m sure he will get a good stud job, but we want to see him get a good one, that is why it has been frustrating.

“I don’t think it matters where you run him. He is a bit lazy. If you think back to his best run this year at Haydock, given another 100 yards he would have got back up. He just gets a bit idle in front and needs something to aim at. If they sprint at him too quickly, it doesn’t give him time to respond.

“I don’t know what we do now to be honest. I just wanted to get another win back under his belt, but we are running out of opportunities.”

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

1.45 Sandown : Garsman @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed post) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1 a 12-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £12,938 to the winner... 


As is often the case, the Geegeez racecard contains an absolute stack of supporting evidence...

...which briefly tells us that we've an LTO winner (same class, course, distance, jockey 13 days ago), who is regarded by our ratings to have a good chance and whose jockey has a good record at this track (C1) (and he beat us yesterday by a head). Our trainer is in good recent form (14, 30) and has also been amongst the winners at this venue (C1, C5) and has a good record with both LTO winners and Flat Stayers.

Is there enough there to hang a bet on? At 13/2, probably yes, as the above would suggest a better than 1 in 7 chance, but I do like to offer you something else that isn't already staring you in the face, so let's consider why trainer Charlie Fellowes appears in another of my unimaginatively named microsystems : Late Summer FHC, shall we?

Esssentially it's a group of trainers that I look out for in Flat Handicaps during July to August, from which Charlie Fellowes' runners sent off at 8/1 or shorter are...

He does have some good numbers in the 12/1 to 16/1 range too, but we'll focus on those in the general SotD price bracket today, as a 27% strike rate and a return of over 62p in the pound at Betfair SP is perfect for our needs and of those 100 runners, the following are relevant today...

  • 26/85 (30.6%) for 69.9pts (+82.2%) with horses aged 3-5 yrs old
  • 23/67 (34.3%) for 72pts (+107.4%) over 1m to 1m6f
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 63pts (+118.8%) at 11-25 dslr
  • 18/52 (34.6%) for 48.5pts (+93.3%) from runners in the frame LTO
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 16.6pts (+40.4%) in August
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 28.4pts (+101.4%) with LTO winners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 28pts (+200%) at Class 2
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 42.2pts (+324.4%) in races worth £12-20k
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 22.2pts (+170.6%) in 4yo+ handicaps
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.3pts (+104.3%) here at Ascot
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 13.5pts (+675%) with Jim Crowley in the saddle

100 bets isn't a massive sample size, but more than adequate and I'm mindful of over diluting the dataset, but from the above, we could make a mental note that 3-5 yr olds placed LTO 11-25 days earlier now racing over 1m-1m6f are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 37.2pts (+177.2% ROI) including 5/11 (45.5% SR) with LTO winners and 3 from 6 (50%) in August...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG as was quite widely available (inc at least three BOGs) at 8.05 am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race... here for the betting on the 3.35 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!