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Stat of the Day: 27th January 2012
Another rattled crossbar, as 28/1 (!) shot Categorical was beaten a nose yesterday, with his better fancied stable mate back in 4th. Today, we're back towards the top end of the market and a trainer making waves this term, in the…
John Ferguson has been carrying all before him in his first season as a National Hunt trainer. The fact that he's an ex-bloodstock agent for Godolphin means he's lucky enough to train a few 'cast offs' for that outfit under the Bloomfields banner. He has also been a successful point-to-point trainer in parallel to his Godolphin duties.
In any case, his overall record this season is a ridiculous eighteen winners from just 47 runners, at a strike clip of 38% and for a profit of 40.71 points. Clearly, the cat is now well and truly out of the bag, so the 10/1+ winners are probably a thing of the past. But Ferguson is still knocking in a fair few 7/2, 4/1 etc horses.
Today, he lines up Cry Of Freedom, who won on his first start before being brought down at the first hurdle last time out. Essentially, then, he's an unbeaten hurdler racing in a reasonable novice contest this afternoon. (It's been won in the past by the likes of Mille Chief, Penzance and Voy Por Ustedes. Alan King trained all of those and has Kings Bayonet in this time).
Ferguson has had no more than a handful of runners anywhere, this being his maiden full season. But, of the four hurdlers he's saddled here at Huntingdon, three have won... including Cry Of Freedom himself!
There are a few newcomers, and it can be a warm race as the aforementioned alumni attest, but this one will know his game and looks to have a sound chance.
Stat of the Day: 4th January 2012
Well, those who like a winner at any price will have been pleased enough with another first place yesterday, albeit at alarmingly short odds of 4/7. In my defense, he was available at 2/1 the night before when I posted, and still 6/4 at lunchtime yesterday.
He won by seven lengths and was clearly 'jobbed up to the eyeballs'. Having opened up 4/5 on course, a lot of fives were wagered to win fours, and he was heavily bet at all rates down to his SP of 4/7 (Betfair SP of a respectable 1.70).
It’s time for another Stat of the Day, and it is possible today's pick will go the same way, so an early price with best odds guaranteed may be the prudent play, as we head for…
John Ferguson is a new name this season, and bookies are already running for cover every time he has one entered. Mr Ferguson is/was a bloodstock agent for Sheikh Mohammed, and now has the pleasure of training some of the Sheikh's less talented battalion.
Thus far, he's saddled thirteen winners from just 41 runners, for a profit of 25.99 points. Obviously, bookies know about that, and punters are cottoning on too!
Nevertheless, today's entry at Huntingdon, Asaid, was quirky on the flat and it is to be hoped that a) punters overlook him somewhat as a consequence, and b) he isn't quirky over hurdles.
In fairness, four runs on the flat - all over a mile and a half - yielded three second places and a third, and a final flat rating of 80, so he does have talent. Moreover, three of the four races he's run in have produced a lot of winners and been profitable to follow.
He's by Singspiel, who is a pretty good National Hunt sire, and will be ready to go. Pilot John Quinlan has a 37% strike rate for Ferguson (11 from 30) and a fat profit.
Opposing is a pretty moderate looking bunch, of those to have run over obstacles. Nicky Henderson does have a flat recruit on hurdles debut in here, and she's likely to be the biggest danger assuming she and the SotD horse can jump!