Each day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival for you!

The 'day two' feature is the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase - a race trainer Willie Mullins won for the first time in 2022!

Cheltenham Festival Trends

Wednesday 15th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

    1.30 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: SIR GERHARD (8/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 6 of the last 9 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• 12 of the last 14 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
• 18 of the last 22 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
• 22 of the last 28 winners won last time out
• 27 of the last 28 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 20 (8 of last 9)
• Horses rated 150+ do well
• 11 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
• 23 of the last 28 winners (including last 11) had won at least one bumper race
• 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6
• In the last 11 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 21 of the 33 top 3 places
• 22 of the last 24 were NH bred
• 16 of the last 24 had won a graded race before
• Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (8 of the last 12 had won an Irish Point)
• Respect Willie Mullins – 5 winners in last 15 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 5

Negatives….

• Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
• Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
• Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 57 (since 1988) (but was last year’s winner Sir Gerhard)
• Only two of the last 36 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 19 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
• Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 17 years)

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2.10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2022 Winner: L’HOMME PRESSE (9/4 fav)
Trainer – Venetia Williams
Jockey – Charlie Deutsch
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• 5 of the last 14 winners ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Mighty Potter won this year’ race)
• The last 21 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 15 of the last 16 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 25 of the last 28 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• Respect 7 year-olds – won 13 of the last 16 (18 of last 23)
• 11 of the last 17 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 13 winners were beaten on their chase debut
• 8 of the last 15 winners had won a bumper before
• 8 of the last 16 favourites won
• The last 8 winners were rated 150+
• 10 of the last 11 winners returned single-figures in the betting
• 20 of the last 22 winners had run between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 21 from the last 26
• 11 of the last 16 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 7 of the last 14 winners were trained in Ireland
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 19 between them)
• 25 of the last 30 were novice hurdling last season
• 6 of the last 13 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (54 of the last 56 winners had)
• 12 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
• The last 8 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market

Negatives….

• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have won gone onto win this race
• French bred horses are 1-from-39 (last 16 years, but last year’s winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
• The Tizzard yard are 0-from-10 over the last 11 years
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 23 winners)
• Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
• Horses in headgear have a poor record

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    2.40 - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

2022 Winner: COMMANDER OF FLEET (50/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Shane Fitzgerald
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 18 were 2^nd season hurdlers
• 18 of the last 22 winners raced less than 10 times over hurdles
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run at the Festival before (8 had top 4 finish)
• 10 of the last 14 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
• 9 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 140’s
• 14 of the last 23 winners aged 6 or 7
• 9 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 12 of the last 17 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
• 21 of the last 28 winners won earlier that season
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners
• Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (7 wins in last 13 years)
• 10 of the last 21 winners were French-Bred
• 15 of the last 29 won last time out
• Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 14)
• Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (12 of last 14 winners)
• 15 of the last 18 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott is 3 from 12
• 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
• The last 4 winners wore headgear

Negatives….

• Just one winning favourite in the last 19 years (2020)
• Only 4 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
• Just 5 winners since 2000 aged 8+
• Horses rated 150+ don’t have an overall great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 47 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 from 44 since 2010

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    3.30 - Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

2022 Winner: ENERGUMENE
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 13 of the last 22 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
• 4 of the last 10 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
• 24 of the last 38 had won at the Festival before
• Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 23 between them
• Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 11
• 28 of the last 36 winners aged between 7-9
• 14 of the last 21 winners won last time out
• 17 of the last 20 winners had run that calendar year
• 39 of the last 41 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 23 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 16 winners were French-bred
• 12 of the last 20 winners were second season chasers
• 16 of the last 18 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
• 20 of the last 24 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 16 of the last 23 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
• 7 of the last 12 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
• Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

• Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 39 years
• Just 1 winner in last 18 had run 4+ times that season
• Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year have a bad record
• Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, has just 1 win in the race (Energumene) (1-from-14)
• Just 1 of the last 21 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 13 of the last 17 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
• Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-4
• Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 48 years
• Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 44 years
• 5 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost
• Just one Mare has ever won the race (Put The Kettle On, 2021)

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    4.10 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

2022 Winner: DELTA WORK (5/2 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• The Irish have won 15 of the last 18 runnings
• Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
• 15 of the last 18 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 21 of the last 25 winners came from the top three in the betting
• 9 of the last 18 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
• 14 of the last 18 winners had run on the course before
• Respect jockeys Keith Donoghue (3 wins) and Davy Russell (2 wins)
• 14 or the last 18 winners were aged 10 or younger
• 8 of the last 12 winners were aged 8 or 9
• Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 12 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 6 runnings
• 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
• 10 of the last 18 winners had run in the NH Chase before
• 5 of the last 8 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
• The last 7 winners wore headgear
• 8 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie

Negatives….

• Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but last year’s winner (Delta Work) was running for the first time over the X-Country course
• Just 3 of the last 13 winners won their last race
• Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 100, but the 2020 winner was 6
• Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 16
• Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

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    4.50 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

2022 Winner: GLOBAL CITIZEN
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Kielan Woods
UK/Irish: UK-trained

Pluses….

• 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
• 16 of the last 19 winners had run at the Festival before
• 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the previous renewal
• Irish have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
• 9 of the last 13 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 14 winners novices or second season chasers
• 11 of the last 17 winners aged between 6-8
• 13 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or older
• Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
• Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 19
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 11 placed)
• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated at least 138
• 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
• Novices have won 6 of the last 14 runnings
• 5 of the last 8 winners won after a 91+ day break
• 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-147
• 10 of the last 12 winners rated between 138-150
• 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more in weight
• 20 of the last 23 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

• Horses aged 10+ are just 3 wins from the last 27 runnings, but last year’s winner was a 10 year-old
• Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
• Last time out winners are just 1 from last 16
• Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 34 since 2005
• Only 2 of the last 18 winners were favourites
• Just 2 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
• Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

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    5.30 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

2022 Winner: FACILE VEGA (15/8 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish-trained

Pluses….

• 28 of the last 30 had won last time out (all of last 19)
• 23 of the last 30 winners trained in Ireland
• Respect Irish-trained runners (23 from 39)
• 21 of the last 30 came from the top 6 in the betting
• 23 of the last 30 were Irish-bred
• 11 of the last 22 winners were second season horses
• 16 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 19 of the last 30 winners aged 5 years-old
• 19 of the last 21 had their debut runs in Ireland
• 12 of the last 20 had been beaten in a race before
• 6 of the last 13 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
• Respect Willie Mullins (12 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020 and 2021
• The Irish lead the British 24-7 in the race history
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
• 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• Mares are 3-19 in the last 18 runnings
• 6 of the last 7 winners had run in February
• 3 of the last 4 winners owned by Cheveley Park Stud

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
• Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
• Just 2 of the last 12 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
• Only 4 of the last 12 winners were won by UK-based trainers
• 4 year-olds are 1 from 65 since 2000 (Cue Card)
• Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

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