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Stat of the Day, 11th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Chepstow : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in centre, led over 1f out, headed close home, lost 2nd at post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap Nursery for 2yo fillies over 6f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

We start with the unique Geegeez interactive racecard...

...and a 2 yr old filly (obviously) who has won twice and placed twice in her five outings beyond 5 furlongs, only failing to make the frame on a three-length defeat at a higher grade at Goodwood six weeks ago. She's 1152 at 6f, has a win and a place from two good ground runs, is 131 at 7-28 days rest and tops the Geegeez Speed ratings today.

Jockey Jack Mitchell's 12-month record here at Salisbury is shown above, whilst over the last 16 months, his numbers here are...

including of relevance today...

  • 7/25 (28%) for 15.94pts (+63.8%) in races worth less than £10k
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 2.35pts (+18%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/12 933.3%) for 15.81pts (+131.7%) on 2 yr olds
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.59pts (+173.8%) on female runners...

...whilst trainer Mark Johnston is also no slouch around this neck of the woods either. He doesn't actually send many runners here, but they do well enough for at least a second glance, as since 2014, they are...

with a near 1 in 6 strike rate producing a yield just shy of 10%. A satisfactory return for a long-term investment, I suppose, but it's not sexy or exciting, is it? So where should we focus our Johnston/Salisbury betting, Chris?

Well, you could stick to 2 year olds running at Classes 1 to 3, sent off at Evens to 16/1, who are...

...which almost doubles our strike rate, multiplies our profit more than fives times over and also includes of note today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 30.18pts (+232.2%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.09pts (+172.7%) were placed LTO
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 22.46pts (+320.9%) at Class 3
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.65pts (+344.2%) over this 6f C&D...

...whilst in fields of 5-10 runners, horses who made the frame LTO are also 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 12.09pts (+172.7% ROI), including a win and a place from two Class 3 efforts and a win and a place from two over this 6f C&D...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!