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Stat of the Day, 1st September 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.00 Southwell : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3 (In rear, pushed along over 2f out, some late headway, beaten by 6 lengths and never nearer) Absolutely dreadful tactics with a horse known for prominent/front running.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Soft ground worth £6,631 to the winner...

Why?...

Running late due to some tech issues at home overnight, so I'll keep this as brief as I can, starting, as ever, with the racecard, which pretty much is my way in to this race....

So, trainer Julie Camacho's only runner of the day is this 3 yr old filly who won handsomely by 5.5 lengths under today's jockey over a mile at Haydock 24 days ago. The sample sizes aren't the best, but trainer & jockey seem to fare well together and Julie has a decent enough record here at Hamilton to warrant a second look, whilst the speed ratings are gently persuasive too.

A closer inspection of Julie's 5 year record here at Hamilton shows that her runners are actually 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 23.09pts (+144.3% ROI at betfair SP) over the last four (inc this one) seasons with the following of relevance/note today...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 24.09pts (+160.6%) in handicaps
  • 7/10 (70%) for 29.09pts (+290.9%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 30.09pts (+334.3%) with handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.36pts (+192%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.32pts (+190.3%) in races worth £4k to £8k
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 12.23pts (+203.9%) from those placed LTO
  • 2/4 (50%) for 9.4pts (+235%) stepping up a class
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 7.31pts (+182.2%) with female runners...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!