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Stat of the Day, 14th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Yorker @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 8.20am : Self Cert - Lame)

Monday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Donna's Pride @ 9/2 BOG 

Why?

This 7 yr old mare might well be on a fairly lengthy (14) losing run, but she's looked more like her old self of late, making the frame four times in her last six appearances, symptomatic of an upturn in form for the Keith Reveley yard as a whole.

As a result of not winning, she now runs off a mark lower than her last winning effort and a drop in class might well just make that difference needed to get her home. That thought is backed up by the fact that Keith Reveley's NH handicap class droppers are 27/129 (20.9% SR) for 85.7pts (+66.4% ROI) since the start of 2010, with...

  • those dropping just 1 grade winning 21/103 (20.4%) for 69.8pts (+67.8%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back : 20/86 (23.3%) for 76.2pts (+88.6%)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 : 20/70 (28.6%) for 55.4pts (+79.1%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 : 6/34 (17.7%) for 13.2pts (+38.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4%) for 54.6pts (+237.5%)

It's also worth noting that in that same 2010-16 timeframe that Keith's handicap hurdlers running at a lower mark than their last win and on a losing streak of 5 or more races are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 39.3pts (+187.1% ROI) when sent off in the 11/4 to 7/1 price banding, from which Class 5 runners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.2pts (+305%)

...resulting in...a 1pt win bet on Donna's Pride at  9/2 BOG, a price offered at 7.05pm on Sunday by my preferred Bet365, but also from betVictor and Marathon. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Yorker @ 4/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 8.20am : Self Cert - Lame)

Monday's pick goes in the...

12.50 Musselburgh

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Donna's Pride @ 9/2 BOG 

Why?

This 7 yr old mare might well be on a fairly lengthy (14) losing run, but she's looked more like her old self of late, making the frame four times in her last six appearances, symptomatic of an upturn in form for the Keith Reveley yard as a whole.

As a result of not winning, she now runs off a mark lower than her last winning effort and a drop in class might well just make that difference needed to get her home. That thought is backed up by the fact that Keith Reveley's NH handicap class droppers are 27/129 (20.9% SR) for 85.7pts (+66.4% ROI) since the start of 2010, with...

  • those dropping just 1 grade winning 21/103 (20.4%) for 69.8pts (+67.8%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back : 20/86 (23.3%) for 76.2pts (+88.6%)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 8/1 : 20/70 (28.6%) for 55.4pts (+79.1%)
  • those dropping into Class 5 : 6/34 (17.7%) for 13.2pts (+38.9%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 7/23 (30.4%) for 54.6pts (+237.5%)

It's also worth noting that in that same 2010-16 timeframe that Keith's handicap hurdlers running at a lower mark than their last win and on a losing streak of 5 or more races are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 39.3pts (+187.1% ROI) when sent off in the 11/4 to 7/1 price banding, from which Class 5 runners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 12.2pts (+305%)

...resulting in...a 1pt win bet on Donna's Pride at  9/2 BOG, a price offered at 7.05pm on Sunday by my preferred Bet365, but also from betVictor and Marathon. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2015

Cappielow Park was a non-runner yesterday, so I've nothing to report on, meaning I can get straight on to Saturday's selection, which goes in the...

4.00 Newcastle:

Where I've just taken 3/1 BOG on Waltz Darling, who is trained by Keith Reveley and will be ridden by his son James for this 3 mile, Class 3 handicap hurdle on good to soft ground.

Since the start of 2010, Keith's NH Handicappers have won 17% of their races with 81 winners from 476 runners. Backing them blindly to a £10 level stake would have made you a cool £891 profit a more than satisfactory rate of return of 18.7%. Those sent off in the 2/1 to 9/12 price range are 63/308 (20.5% SR) for 86.2pts (+28% ROI) and his handicap hurdlers in that time are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 57pts (+28.6% ROI) profit.

Since 2010, Keith Reveley's handicap hurdlers are 28/136 (20.6% SR) for 55.5pts (+40.8% ROI) profit when priced between 2/1 & 9/1 inclusive.

Waltz Darling drops down a grade today and since the start of 2009, Keith Reveley's NH handicap class droppers have won 25 of their 113 races (22.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 96.8pts at an ROI of 85.7% with those dropping down just the one level (like Waltz Darling here) are 19/92 (20.7% SR) for 76pts (+82.6% ROI). Those runners priced 2/1 to 8/1 are 21/77 (27.3% SR) for 53.8pts (+69.9% ROI) whilst his handicap hurdlers dropping in class are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 40.4pts profit at an ROI of 85.9% to date.

Keith Reveley's handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 8/1 dropping down 1 grade are 6/24 (25% SR) for 14.7pts (+61.3% ROI) profit since 2009.

Keith's son James is in the saddle today and since the start of 2010, the partnership has had 125 winners from 680 runners and if you'd blindly stuck a tenner on each of them, the 18.4% strike rate would have yielded £1484 profit as a 21.8% return on your money. In handicap company, those figures revert to 70 winners from 383 runners (18.3% SR) and 104.6pts (+27.3% ROI) profit with handicap hurdlers contributing 24 wins from 155 (15.5% SR) and 32.6pts (+21% ROI) profit.

Together, with handicap hurdlers priced below 10/1, Team Reveley are 22/113 (19.5% SR) for 30.6pts (+27.1% ROI) profit since 2010.

Waltz Darling comes here in decent form having won three times and been placed twice from just seven outings in the last five months and was a runner-up at Doncaster last time out. There was no disgrace in his five length defeat there by Call The Cops who was a winner at Cheltenham (Pertemps) on Wednesday.

He's 1/1 at today's trip and 4/7 on good to soft ground and he is used to being ridden by James Reveley as they have 5 wins and 5 places from 15 starts together.

Conditions look ideal for Waltz Darling to get back to winning ways and with nothing of Call The Cops calibre to contend with here, a similar run to last time out should be enough for a win at 3/1 BOG. That's the price I've taken with Boylesports, but it is widely available elsewhere, as you'll see when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day: 06/03/13

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2013

No joy yesterday as Josh's Dreamaway failed to place. She was making some headway towards the end of the race, but it was already too late in my opinion, I think she needed to have been kept a little closer to make a charge. She eventually finished in 6th, which was no disgrace, but it was 3 lengths adrift of a payout for us.

We're off chasing in North Yorkshire today where we've a family affair in a 3m 1.5f, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase on good ground (at last!). And we've eight runners lined up for the...

2.50 Catterick

Trainer Keith Reveley's record in chase events here at Catterick has been excellent over the last few years. In fact, since the start of 2010, he has managed to saddle up ten winners from thirty for a very impressive 78pts profit, a return of 260% on stakes invested.

Meanwhile, Keith's son, James has also been rattling up the winners over the Catterick chase course. James has ridden ten winners from thirty-six attempts over the same period. This strike rate of 27.8% has resulted in profits of 71pts at SP (+197.2%).

It goes without saying that many of the rides above are common to both trainer and rider, but their combined stats here are far better than they are generally. Since January 2010, they have a combined strike rate of 18.6%, which is very respectable, but in Catterick chases it becomes 39.1% (9/23). Their combined profits from all races in this period are 56pts, which gives a POI of 12%, whilst in today's type of race, they've made 80.4pts = 349.6% of stakes.

Today is the last NH meeting of the season at Catterick and the father/son combo will look to go out on a high with their only joint effort (and James' sole ride) of the day: D'Gigi

D'Gigi is a 7 yr old chestnut mare who probably isn't as straightforward as the Reveley clan would like, but has shown plenty of promise previously. She was placed here in a hurdle race last season, whilst in a run of decent form (finishes of 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the spin in increasingly more difficult races), before a fall at Aintree last May seemed to halt her progress.

It was expected that she would come on more for a switch to fences and she wasn't far short of  her winning hurdles form on just her second attempt at chasing when fifth at Doncaster over 3 miles on soft ground in November. She has had a couple of jumping issues, but I'd have expected the stable to have worked on that during her near-3 month break from the track and I'd also expect to see a better performance on this firmer surface.

This is a race that the Reveleys seem to target, having won it in both 2010 and 2011. And whilst Keith didn't have an entry last year, James went on to ride the runner-up Brokethegate who finished 1.5 lengths behind Salut Honore.

I'd expect the team to have D'Gigi as ready as she can be for this one and if the jumping remains sound, she has every chance. Thus, today's play is a 1pt win bet on D'Gigi at 7/2 BOG. This price is available pretty much everywhere, so for your favoured bookie simply...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 2.50 Catterick

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