Tag Archive for: Kelso racecourse

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/05/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...

...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Chester
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 5.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Fontwell

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from and I did fancy a switch away from the jumps, but none of the four Flat/AW contests appealed to me from the angle of having to write a column, so we're heading North to look at Fergal O'Brien's 6yr old mare Politacus from above, as she tackles the 3.45 Kelso, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Lily du Berlais and Strong Belle both won last time out after finishing second on their previous outings, but after two wins on the bounce, featured runner Politacus comes here on a hat-trick. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Shakeyatailfeather and Brendas Asking are both 6-race maidens, whilst Spit Spot has lost her last eleven outings and Mary has yet to get off the mark after eight attempts!

Spit Spot and Brendas Asking's bids to finally land a win are unlikely to be aided by stepping up two classes from their last run, whilst Politacus, Mighty Moth and Linda Moon all make the same double class rise here. Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather are all up one level today but Mick's Jet and bottom-weight Dame ofthecotwolds both raced at Class 1 three weeks ago with the latter a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Cheltenham.

This will the Dame's second run in a handicap, as it will for Brendas Asking, Linda Moon and Mighty Moth, whilst Lily du Berlais, Mick's Jet, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather all make their handicap debuts here. Linda Moon is in a first time tongue-tie and Politacus will sport cheekpieces for the first time.

All twelve have raced at least once in the last ten weeks so there should be no fitness worries for a field that hasn't won a race between them here at Kelso (mind you, they are only 0 from 2!), but the top six on the card have all at least won over this type of trip, although Instant Expert says they haven't won very many races at all...

...so we might find that the place data is of more value to us today...

Lily du Berlais is certainly proven at the trip already and most of them have a reasonable enough place record over this distance. The truth is that they're a relatively inexperienced bunch; Spit Spot has had twenty races (just 2 wins!, but the other nine have only been on a track 85 times between them and of the field's 16 from 105 (15.24%) strike rate, Lily du Berlais and Politacus account for 5 wins from 19 (26.32%) and although the latter prefers the ground a bit softer, I wouldn't rule her out just yet.

Previous similar races here at Kelso have pretty much gone with the racing position adopted by the runners, with leaders proving the most successful...

...which based on recent outings, would appear to suit the top handful of runners on this graphic the most...

Summary

From a recent form perspective, Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and featured runner Politacus would appear to be the ones to keep an eye out for and Lily du Berlais definitely seemed the one to beat at this trip, according to Instant Expert.

Politacus and Lily du Berlais have the best strike rates in the field and the former just about made the top-five on average pace score. Lily du Berlais didn't quite make it, but did race prominently last time out when winning very comfortably at Ayr. Politacus would probably prefer the ground to be a little softer, but I don't see the ground preventing her from making the frame, although I suspect she'll have to play second fiddle to Lily du Berlais today with Strong Belle also a leading contender for the places.

Early dart for me today (football play-offs again!), so no odds available at 3pm, but my 1-2-3 would be Lily du Berlais - Politacus - Strong Belle. I might add an E/W possible (if none of these three trade at 8/1+) when I see the market, as some firms are paying four places on this one.



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Racing Insights, Monday 17/04/23

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No column for the last two days of last week, as I was travelling through Europe to Crete, where I am now on their Easter Sunday. Enough of that, though, now back to work!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 4.40 Redcar
  • 5.15 Tramore
  • 5.25 Windsor
  • 5.40 Kelso

A handful of races for you to look at, but for me my dislike of April Flat / Irish / Bumper races leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 3.20 Kelso! That said, it's a decent enough contest on paper, despite being a small field. The withdrawal of Methodtothemadness means that last year's winner and top weight Bavington Bob only has four rivals for this Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m7½f. They'll have seventeen fences to clear on good to soft ground and here's the card...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both Marown and Domandlouis were runners-up and the former is now winless in eight, whilst Bavington Bob's win in this race last year was his last success and he's now on a losing streak of seven, but he is the sole course and distance winner in the field.

Of the others, Marown won a chase over 3m1f at Wetherby, whilst Saint Arvans and Domandlouis have both previously won here at Kelso over hurdles (2m½f & 2m5f respectively). Domandlouis is, however, up two classes here, whilst Bavington Bob drops down from Class 2, where five of his last seven runs/defeats have been.

Saint Arvans is turned out after just nine days rest, whilst Slanelough hasn't been seen for over 14 weeks.

Instant Expert suggests that last year's win by Bavington Bob might not have been a fluke as he would appear to be best suited by the conditions expected here...

Marown seems to have struggled at this grade over fences and if we're honest, he just hasn't won often enough since starting his career with a bumper win and two hurdles successes. Domandlouis hasn't much experience under today's conditions, but a line of red is less than encouraging. Bavington Bob is clearly the one at class/trip that they'd have to beat and the report of last year's triumph says...held up, headway on outer over 3 out, ridden in 2nd under 2 out and soon challenged, led last, ran on well and pulled clear flat, won comfortably by nine lengths...

His recent pace profile suggests that he's likely to be waited with once again...

...whilst the pace-setter is expected to be Slanelough, who has made all to win four of his last ten over fences, but it should be noted that he's 0 from 9 beyond 2m4f!

Leaders haven't had it all their own way in small field chases here at Kelso, though, but they have performed significantly better than hold-up horses, suggesting that Bavington Bob's success last season might have been a rare exception to the norm...

...stats that would appear to hand the initiative to Domandlouis, Saint Arvan & Marown.

Summary

Marown is the relatively short-priced favourite here at 15/8, but he's 2lbs heavier than when beaten over 2m4f last time out and I should point out that he lost his previous two by 33 and 47 lengths respectively when asked to run three miles, so 15/8 is too skinny for me.

Domandlouis is next best in the betting at 9/4, but he was beaten by 7.5 lengths over this trip last time out and is now up two classes, so it might well be right time/right place for last year's winner, Bavington Bob. Instant Expert says he'll relish the conditions most, he gets the track and trip and has a good record at Class 3. He's back to his last winning mark and although the pace profile casts doubts, it's not as though he'll have a wall of traffic ahead of him, there are only five runners here.

BB is currently priced at 7/2 with Hills and whilst I thought we might get a little more juice in the price than that, he'd be the one that represented best value here to me.

 



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Stat of the Day, 16th March 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Fontwell : Jimmy @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/4 (Chased leaders on inside, switched outside before 4th, reminders and not travel well after next, reluctant and dropped out quickly after 9th, soon pulled up)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Mares Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on heavy ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare has won one of her four starts to date, another Class 4 hurdle on heavy ground at relatively nearby Hexham, so conditions won't be too unfamiliar today. That win is the only win recorded by any of the runners in this contest, as her six rivals have only mustered a combined 4 places from 21 runs to date.

Regular jockey Blair Campbell  is the saddle again today, once more hoping to use his 3lb claim effectively enough to land another Kelso winner for trainer Lucinda Russell, who is 30 from 117 (25.6% SR) for 60.5pts (+51.7% ROI) with horses sent off in the Evens to 8/1 price bracket in handicaps at this venue since the start of 2015. These include of relevance today...

  • 28/103 (27.2%) for 67.1pts (+65.1%) at Classes 3 & 4
  • 18/74 (24.3%) for 46.7pts (+63.2%) with horses unplaced last time out
  • 18/74 (24.3%) for 33.6pts (+45.3%) at Class 4
  • 18/56 (32.1%) for 54.7pts (+97.6%) in fields of 6-8 runners
  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 29.9pts (+69.5%) during March to May
  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 46.1pts (+102.4%) with a jockey claiming 3-6lbs
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 41.3pts (+114.6%) over hurdles
  • 9/31 (29%) for 9.6pts (+31%) on heavy ground
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 19.9pts (+110.8%) in March
  • 7/20 (35%) for 17.7pts (+88.5%) with Blair Campbell in the saddle
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 31pts (+193.9%) with female runners...

...whilst risking diluting the data too far...those unplaced LTO and now running at Class 3/4 in fields of 4-7 in March are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 15.66pts (+174% ROI) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Monday with plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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