Posts

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2013

Stat of the Day: 02/03/13

Stat of the Day: 02/03/13

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2013

It was a satisfactory start to the new month, as Gabrial the Boss justified taking a place bet by finishing second yesterday. In truth, he was never close to winning, but those of you who got on early will have made a 0.45pt profit from the 3.00 place price, but the official BFSP was as low as 2.55, resulting in SotD recording an official profit of 0.25pts. It's a start, if nothing else!

We're heading North to the Borders today for the opening race on the card, which is a competitive-looking Class 4 Novice Hurdle. The going is reported to be Soft for the fourteen runners expected to do battle over two miles and half a furlong for the...

1.55 Kelso

Ann Hamilton is hardly the most prolific of trainers. In fact, she's only sent out 42 runners (8 winners and 8 placed!) in the last twelve months, but her recent form is good, as is her record here at Kelso.

In keeping with her stable's low profile, she has only had five entries since Boxing Day, but results of 12311 would tend to suggest she's doing something right and that her horses are in good nick. This recent run of form allied to her overall record at Kelso points us in the direction of what might seem another left field punt after yesterday's selection, but I think that today's mount is overpriced, but we'll come to him shortly.

Ann's complete record at Kelso reads 13 wins (21.3%) and 24 placed in total (40%) from 61 races: generating level stakes profits at SP of 44.6pts (+73.1% POI) for the win, whilst E/W returns of 57.8pts (+48.2% POI) are more than satisfactory.

In the last four years, that record reads 9 wins (26.5%) and 13 total places (39.4%) for profits of 37.6pts (+110.6%) and 48.5pts (+73.5%) respectively.

She has a good record across all three spheres of racing here, but her hurdles record is excellent: five wins and three places from just twenty-five attempts has generated further profits of 25.8pts (103.3%) for the win bets and 24.6pts (49.2%) for the E/W punter.

In the last four years those stats read three wins from ten for 22.3pts profit. And I should add that her horses have won both of their last two races here.

Mrs Hamilton has just the one runner today: Trust Thomas.

Trust Thomas is making only his fifth start today, but has shown glimpses of potential in all four previous outings, and has made progress in each of those races, culminating in a 66/1 third place finish at Carlisle on soft ground 24 days ago. In fairness, he was well beaten by Eduard that day, but Eduard is expected to go on to better things anyway and Trust Thomas stayed on well at the end after overcoming a couple of minor jumping errors early on. His jumping is improving, but he has only faced the hurdles twice so far.

The general feeling is that he'll probably want further than today's trip in time and that he'll also progress more once handicapping. Today's encounter is a competitive one, but it's also a fairly open-looking one with several horses capable of making a name for themselves. The openness means that we're going to get a decent price this afternoon.

The early (well, 10am!) markets were showing Trust Thomas as anything between 18/1 and 25/1, so we'll obviously take what we can! Thus, the play today is a 0.5pt safety-first E/W bet on Trust Thomas at 25/1 BOG: this is with Bet 365, but as always, I recommend that you...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 1.55 Kelso

P.S. Harry Haynes takes the ride today and he has a decent record here too, with a 37% place strike rate.

 

Trainer Stats: 28th Feb 2012

N Richards

Look Out For Nicky Richards Runners

See who's made it onto Andy Newton's HOT TRAINER'S list this week.... Read more

Well I Declare: 20th October

Well I Declare: 20th October

Well I Declare: 20th October

Mal Boyle's final preview of the week focuses on the action planned for Ascot, Catterick, Cheltenham, Kelso & Wolverhampton. With racinmg both North and South of the Border and a good mix of Flat, NH and All-weather, there should be something for everyone today on...

...SATURDAY 20/10:

Ascot:

General stats: James Fanshawe is one of the few trainers who can boast a 19% strike at Ascot (10/52) during the last five years, whilst it’s worth noting that the trainer has not saddled a juvenile at the racecourse during the study period.

 

Catterick:

Your first 30 days for just £1

General stats: Ed Dunlop is making up for a poor season (by his high standards) late doors to a fashion and anything that Ed sends to Catterick is worth a second glance via his 3/5 ratio.

‘Catterick Dash’ scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests.

Seven furlong juvenile event scheduled for 3.25: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last ten winners.  Four of the last seven favourites have obliged.

Cheltenham:

General stats: Make of these level stake figures what you well at Cheltenham during the last five years; Nicky Henderson has accrued forty points of profit, against a loss of seventy-seven by Paul Nicholls.  Don’t shoot the messenger!

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 2.30: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.40: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.  Eight-year-olds have won three of the five contests thus far.  Philip Hobbs had secured a medal of each colour before the trainer ‘upped the ante’ by securing a second winner twelve months ago.  Just like last year, Balthazar King was Philip’s only option at the five-day stage.

Class 3 handicap hurdle over two miles and five furlongs scheduled for 4.20: The last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.30: Eight renewals have passed by since the last favourite obliged, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last ten contests.

Kelso:

General stats: Only Nicky Richards (23 winners) can beat Lucinda’s figures at Kelso (22) during the last five years, as mentioned in the first part of this week’s content.

Class 4 handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.50:  No winning favourite recorded since 2004 (seven renewals).

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Conveniently ignoring runaway leader Mark Johnston (mentioned earlier in despatches), it’s worth noting that three other leading trainers have saddled plenty of winners at Wolverhampton during the last five years, namely Kevin Ryan (61), Richard Fahey (60) and Tom Dascombe (56).

Sat TV Trends: 20th Oct 2012

It's Champions Day at Ascot.....

A huge day of TV action with BBC races at Ascot, while the C4 cameras head to Cheltenham, Kelso & Catterick.... Read more

Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2012

Stat of the Day 07/10

Stat of the Day 07/10

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2012

SotD got back onto the scoreboard yesterday as Always Bold ran out a fairly comfortable winner in the end. Lugging more weight than normal on soft ground for almost three and a half miles didn't seem to faze a horse that has an excellent at course & distance. We had advised a 7/2 bet: this was reduced to 3.325/1 due to non-runners, but we comfortably beat the market as our horse was sent off as 5/2 favourite. We expected him to be the favourite and he justified the tag, winning by 5 lengths in the end, still full of running and going away!

We're heading back North today to the Scottish Borders for some more soft ground action. This time it's a Class 5 Handicap Chase over 2 miles 7 furlongs and we're expecting 10 runners to go to post, offering us the possibility of an E/W bet, even if a couple pull out of the...

5.10 Kelso

Handicap Chases at Kelso can be tricky affairs, but Dianne Sayers' chasers seem to go quite well here without breaking any records. She has admittedly only had one chase victory here from nine attempts in the last couple of years, but that was a 10/1 winner, ensuring she has a 2pts level stakes profit. More interestingly and relevant to today is the fact the four of the nine have made the frame and have generated profit of 6.5 pts when backing E/W: a return of over 72% on stakes. This fits in with my search for an E/W bet.

In the last two years the most successful jockey in Kelso Handicap Chases has been James Reveley with 4 winners from 9 rides and some decent prices have helped him to a level stakes profit of 21pts from those 9 races.

There are two chases on the Kelso card today: one at 4.05 and our race at 5.10. Dianne Sayers runs More Equity in the 4.05 race, and this 10 yr old lady looks set to struggle despite having previously run at the course, whilst James Reveley has no scheduled ride.

However, both trainer and jockey team up in the 5.10 for our SotD selection: Worth A Kings, our tentative E/W selection for today.

Worth A Kings tried his hand over fences last summer, but it didn't really work out for him, if truth be told. He went back to hurdling and rediscovered some form and a bot of confidence via a couple of hurdle victories in May and is expected to make a better fist of it second time around. He'll have no issues with the cut in the ground, he has a win and some place form on soft ground to his name already and if his jumping has improved any, I expect him to be there or thereabouts.

Despite a return to form over the smaller obstacles, Worth A Kings is actually rated higher over fences than hurdles and the yard do seem to think that this is the way forward for him now. Class 5 is probably right for where he's at and with a record of 14211 at this level, he has to be a contender for at least another place. Further smaller things of note are that he tends to go best in fields of 8-11 runners (4 of his 7 career wins) and he is 2 wins and 2 places from 6 in the month of October, so he tends to be readied for this time of year. He last ran 14 days ago and often goes well when reappearing soon after his last run. He has won 5 of the 10 races he has contested between a week and a fortnight from his last outing.

Worth A Kings is worth a look in my opinion and at 14/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, it's a 0.5pt E/W bet today for me and SotD , but you can choose to wait until later and then please do return to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.10 Kelso.

Trainer Stats: 22nd March 2012

The Johnston Yard Are In Cracking Form

Andy Newton continues with his weekly look at the yards that are firing in the winners at present.

Read more

Trainer Stats – 1st Dec 2011

More trainer clues this week as Andy Newton highlights which handlers are firing in the winners............. Read more

TV Trends – Sat 15th October

Crystal Capella

Can Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Capella win the Champions Fillies & Mares’ Stakes for a third time this Saturday? – Andy Newton gives you all the big race trends & stats from Saturday’s LIVE TV races. Read more