Tag Archive for: kempton pace

Racing Insights, 29th November 2021

This is Sam, filling in for Chris on Monday’s column. He’ll be back with Tuesday’s write up.

The Free Feature of the Day on Monday is the pace tab for all races. Arguably the biggest time saving tool of all on Geegeez Gold and very generously made free for every single race on both Sundays and Mondays to free registered users..

There are also three races of the day where all racecard features are available for free, again to registered users. These fee races on Monday are:

2.10 Ayr
2.25 Kempton
4.10 Kempton

With fixtures currently falling foul of the weather it seems safer to concentrate on the all weather races. Given the 2.25 Kempton is a class 3 handicap it seems a good race to analyse and is preferred over the very difficult looking 14 runners handicap at 4.10.

This class 3 handicap will be run over a mile and although 8 were initially entered, we’ve already lost Fox Duty Free who ran on Saturday evening. That’s going to make each way betting a bit off putting but don’t forget the Betfair Exchange place market will still pay 3 places.

In such a small field the draw isn’t going to have a great effect here but the pace of the race i still hugely important.

The mile distance at Kempton in smaller fields actually produces some very fair results with the place percentages ranging from 37.35% for prominent racers to 31.61% for those held up. That’s not a huge range so clearly every run style has a decent record. It is worth noting though that the prominent races have the best win and place percentage (prominent racers also profitable to follow for win only purposes) whilst those held up have the worst win and place percentages. So slight preference would be for something that sits just off the pace, all other things being equal.

There does seem to be a distinct lack of pace in this race though which is going to make life difficult for anything that is held up or any runner that doesn’t have a good turn of foot. You might even want something with plenty of 7f form and almost certainly won’t to avoid runners who have been plying their trade over further. Something with a bit of toe that sits just off the pace would probably be ideal in this.

Only a small field here so I’ll go through each runner one by one, in early odds order.

Bashosh

A lightly raced runner for Roger Varian but beaten, not far, in both handicap runs to date after winning the first two races of his career. He must be well thought of as his last three SPs have been 2/5, 4/5 and 6/5. His two wins came over 7f and 1m whilst his two defeats have come at 10f and 12f so perhaps this is the right trip for him but you’d be slightly concerned connections sent him over 12f in response to being beaten at 10f rather than dropping him back in trip. 

His formlines are really nothing special and he probably owes his place in the betting to previous SPs and his profile more than his actual form. Given the likelihood of a false gallop here you’d have to question if he will be vulnerable to something a bit quicker. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on and tries to make all given his form over further but overall he looks one to oppose at the price.

Chance

Chance’s autumn campaign didn’t really work out and he hasn’t come back in the same form as the previous season. Presumably whatever kept him off the track between a promising run at Meydan in January and a heavy defeat at Newbury in August has affected his performances since. He’s now had four runs and hasn’t got within 2 lengths of winning despite contesting some very winnable races.

Hopes seem to be now pinned on first time cheekpieces, which may well do the trick or may cause him to go further backwards. It’s a bit of a guessing game. 

The sire stats in the Profiler Tool don’t make the case that the horse is going to suddenly bounce back to form so although he’s an obvious contender if returning to his older form, he’s opposable on current form.

Uzincso

Something of a course specialist - his handicap form over course and distance reads 1111411. The last of those runs came in March and he’s run no sort of race in three turf runs since so while there are some question marks over well being, you at least know he is fit and he simply looks an out and out all weather horse.

He doesn’t do anything particularly quickly so a slow gallop might not be ideal but he doesn’t tend to sit too far off the pace and there is a long enough straight for him to get up a full head of steam. He looks the obvious one so far given his record here.

United Front

Seems better on artificial surfaces and although he still looks feasibly handicapped in a race like this you probably don’t want something that stays further (last win came at 10f) and he’s also often held up, although those tactics aren’t crucial. He was well placed when winning over a mile at Newcastle earlier this year but that came off a 6lb lower mark over a stiffer track so he could end up finding this a bit sharp.

Indeed

Without a win since 2019 and although he features off a declining handicap mark, a return to all weather surfaces failed to spark a massive improvement last time as he was eighth of nine. A 3lb drop since helps a little but he needs to improve again to feature with no obvious sign of where that improvement will come from.

Raising Sand

A rare all weather run for this Ascot specialist, his last run on artificial surfaces coming over 5 years ago over 10f at Chelmsford. He’s undoubtedly at his best over Ascot’s straight 7f although he does stay a mile. He was in decent form in the summer but missed two months and wasn’t in the same form in three subsequent runs. He’s well handicapped but he’d normally want a decent pace to aim at so even if he bounces back to form, which is a big question mark, he’s still probably not going to get the race run to suit.

Andaleep

Tends to save his best form for Sandown and although he has run well here this year, that came over 11f. All his best form is over further, he’s been out of form in recent runs and has now changed hands. This looks like a sighter over a trip too short to see what ability he has left and he makes little appeal here given what sort of stamina test this should be.

Summary

Maybe Bashosh lives up to his reputation and will blast off in front and never see another rival but he hasn’t looked the quickest and has been very expensive to follow. Chance can’t be completely ruled out but the headgear needs to work and there is probably more chance that it doesn’t. The ‘obvious’ one therefore is Uzincso. He’s hardly a bomb proof bet but given his course and distance form he seems the most solid proposition here and is a fair enough price in the very early betting (around 7/2).

United Front is one I want to back soon but not over this mile so he’s not even considered as a forecast. In fact I don’t like any of the remaining six enough to suggest a forecast so I’m simply suggesting a win only play on Uzincso.