NEWMARKET – APRIL 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £328.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 44.7% units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 8/1
Race 2: 33.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 8/1 (5/2)
Race 3: 39.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 5/2*
Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 14/1 – 6/1 (7/2)
Race 5: 66.1% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 8/1 – 10/1
Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 4/1* - 16/1
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 15 (Mont Kiara), 1 (Ekhtiyaar) & 7 (Danielsflyer)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Nebo), 4 (Rufus King) & 6 (Finneston Farm)
Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Frankuus), 5 (Euginio) & 6 (Forest Ranger)
Leg 4 (3.35): 8 (Nawaasi), 1 (Altyn Order) & 10 (Soliloquy)
Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (Strings Of Life) & 4 (Hard Forest)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Award Winning) & 8 (Rococo)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Record of the winning trainers at Newmarket this season after yesterday's opening meeting:
1/1--Karl Burke - No more runners here this week
1/1--Stuart Williams - 2 runners at Newmarket today
1/2--Tom Dascombe - 1 runner
1/3--Charlie Appleby - 5 runners
1/3--Charlie Hills - 6 runners
1/3--Mark Johnston 5 runners
1/4--John Gosden - 5 runners
1/5--Kevin Ryan - 2 runners
1.50: MONT KIARA finished third in this event last year and off a three pound lower mark today, the five-year-old could represent in form trainer Kevin Ryan to each way/Placepot effect. Available at 20/1 in a place in the dead of night, those odds have long since disappeared which makes for interesting reading. Connections will not want the ground to dry up too much this morning relating to the chance of EKHTIYAAR who as a winner of three of his seven races to date, deserves his position at the top of the handicap. The fact that there will (inevitably) be some moisture not too deep in the ground will play to his strengths, whilst DANIELSFLYER completes my trio against the remaining twelve runners, now that a withdrawal has robbed punters of a fourth place opportunity, from a Placepot perspective at least depending how generous your bookmaker is feeling this morning. With every favourite beaten on yesterday’s opening card, the layers should still offer a fourth place from my viewpoint, providing at least 14 runners face the starter.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite could only finish tenth in a twelve strong field before last year’s silver medallist at least claimed a Placepot position at 7/2 on behalf of favourite backers.
Record of the three course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Ekhtiyaar (good to soft)
2/4—Eastern Impact (2 x good to firm)
1/1—Danielsflyer (good to firm)
2.25: The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that the only course winner in the line up RUFUS KING could be worth an each way play at around the 9/1 mark this morning, with Mark Johnston already having had a winner at the meeting. More logical winners (arguably) include NEBO and FINNISTON FARM who represent the in-form yards of Charlie Hills and Tom Dascombe respectively.
Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners. All 19 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.
Record of the course winner in the second event:
1/1—Rufus King (good)
3.00: Four-year-olds have claimed seventeen of the last thirty renewals, whilst securing over half (26/51) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. FRANKUUS (winner of two of four races with ‘soft’ featuring in the going description to date) makes most appeal from the relevant three entries, though both FOREST RANGER and EUGINIO demand plenty of respect in what is considered a fairly ordinary Group 3 event from my viewpoint. If the vintage trend is to be put off track this time around, ROBIN OF NAVAN could be the potential joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: 16 of the 22 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period in the ‘Earl Of Sefton’ event.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
1/13—Master The World
3.35: John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled three or more winners of this event during the last fourteen years (looking for this fifth ‘recent’ winner this time around) and John makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year. With a winner already secured at the meeting, stable representative NAWAASI makes plenty of each way appeal at 9/1 (thereabouts) this afternoon. Roger Varian has some good chances on the card and ALTYN ORDER is certainly considered as a main player here, arguably alongside SOLILOQUY. My reservations about the Aidan O’Brien runners were justified twenty four hours ago besides which, connections of his raider Dramatically might have wished for the sunshine to have stayed away for a few more days.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the nineteen year study period.
Record of course winners in the ‘Nell Gwyn’:
1/2—Altyn Order (good)
1/1—Nawaasi (good to soft)
4.10: 'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last eight renewals, though stable contender Ginger Nut might finds a few of these too hot to handle at the first time of asking. Red Hut Red is one of those to consider, though preference is for Charlie Appleby’s newcomer STRINGS OF LIFE alongside HARD FOREST who could put her brief experience to good use I guess. STRINGS OF LIFE remains the call however, with Charlie having established such a good record in this type of event in recent years.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty one years, whilst twelve market leaders snared Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011) before the 33/1 gold medallist prevailed two years ago.
4.45: Although Qazyna and Ripley are fully expected to win races as three-year-old, I have to remain loyal to John Gosden who has won both races to date. John’s two entries go straight onto the team sheet accordingly with just two places available via my permutation, namely AWARD WINNING and ROCOCO. I marginally prefer the pair as listed, mainly because AWARD WINNING also held an entry in a race at Newbury at the weekend, yet John is letting his Dubawi filly take her chance here despite having had Rococo already pencilled in for the contest.
Favourite factor: Favourites have snared gold and silver medals ion this event thus far.
Record of the course winner in the eighth (non Placepot) race at 5.55:
1/1—Old Persian (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.