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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

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1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th May

BATH – MAY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £191.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.3% units went through – 8/1 – 20/1 – 7/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 2: 44.3% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 4/1 – 5/1 (11/4)

Race 3: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* & 16/1

Race 4: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 5: 39.4% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 16.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 & 12/1 (11/8)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Karalini) & 10 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Prominna), 6 (Burauq) & 10 (Black Truffle)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Spirit Of Zebedee), 10 (Divine Call) & 6 (Dreams Of Glory)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Barbill) & 8 (Cloud Seeding)

Leg 5 (4.35): 4 (Tricksy Spirit), 2 (Rock Of Estonia) & 9 (Aquadabra)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Cent Flying) & 3 (Glamorous Rocket)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • I hope you had part of the Placepot dividend yesterday, given that we had 40p of the £512.10 dividend = a return of £216.84 – following a ‘successful pot’ at Newmarket the previous day.

 

2.15: Boasting a ratio of 7/9 here at Bath this season, Mick Channon will be coming to one of his ‘local’ tracks in confident mode and KARALINI is the only horse in the contest that punters want to know at the time of writing.  SIGNORA CABELLO is the mount of Silvestre De Sousa who has ridden three winners for John Quinn whereby the chance for this long distance traveller is respected.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Bath with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Tony Carrol has had his runners in good form for some time now and though good to soft was registered when scoring here at Bath, George Downing could be in the thick of this at the business end of proceedings aboard this Proclamation gelding who is a four time gold medallist.  Others for the melting pot include BURAUQ and BLACK TRUFFLE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Langham Vale (good to soft)

1/4—Prominna (good to soft)

2/14—Burauq (good to soft & good to firm)

1/8—Spellmaker (firm)

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3.25: Silvestre takes his second ride for John Quinn and in a weak contest, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE can surely reach the frame in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from the likes of DIVINE CALL and DREAMS OF GLORY.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/6—Compton Prince (2 x good to firm & firm)

5/27—Dreams Of Glory (2 x good to firm – 2 x firm – good)

2/11—Divine Call (good & good to soft)

 

4.00: Mick Channon saddles the second of his three runners on the card and BARBILL cannot be excluded from the mix given Mick’s record at the track this term.  At the prices on offer, Ginger Nut could be worth opposing whereby CLOUD SEEDING is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.  Last year’s race went to plan for supporters of the 3/10 market leader.

 

4.35: There will be worse outsiders on the card than AQUADBRA I’ll wager who has her first run for Christopher Mason, having been previously stabled at Mick Channon’s yard.  Talking of Mick, his third and final contender at the meeting is TRICKSY SPIRIT, whilst ROCK OF ESTONIA (winner on this card twelve months ago) completes my trio against the remaining six declarations.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite last year finished nearer last than first (sixth of eight).

Bath record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Rock On Estonia (firm)

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

5.10: CENT FLYING looks to be something of a banker in the lucky last (from a Placepot perspective), with GLAMOROUS ROCKET marginally preferred to Inuk as the main threat.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cent Flying (good)

 

Bath record of course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.45:

1/3—King Crimson (good to soft)

1/20—Swendab (good to firm)

3/21—Jaganory (firm – good to soft – soft)

4/17—Milly Jones (4 x firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

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Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th April

BEVERLEY – APRIL 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £606.57 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 86.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* - 50/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 4: 25.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 18/1 – 14/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 40.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 5/1 – 8/1 (2 x 9/2**)

Race 6: 74.7% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 6/4*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Acclaim The Nation), 14 (Crosse Fire) & 15 (Cameo Star)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Jensue), 11 (Shumookhi) & 12 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Shazzab) & 2 (Exhort)

Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Song Of Summer), 10 (Onefootinparadise) & 2 (Scenic River)

Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Rita’s Man), 1 (Liquid Gold) & 8 (Bollin Ted)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (Inflexiaball) & 5 (Vigee Le Brun)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: The last nine winners have carried nine stones or more to victory, though the stat is not all that impressive as all bar one of the fifteen runners this time around qualify via the weight trend.  You’ll note that one runner has already defected whereby we ‘Potters’ are denied a fourth place, by way of a change! Upwards and onward by suggesting that ACCLAIM THE NATION, CROSSE FIRE and CAMEO STAR should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Grandad’s World.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  All twelve winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the five course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Jacob’s Pillow (good to firm)

1/2—Acclaim The Nation (good to soft)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/1—Cameo Star (good to firm)

2/9—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

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2.00: Of the horses I short listed overnight, only JENSUE has remained ‘in positive mode’ on the exchanges, with the likes of SHUMOOKHI and SIGNORA CABELLO proving easy to back.  It’s bad enough trying to fathom between two or more Richard Fahey horses in any race, but particularly so in an event for juveniles!  Either way, Piccothepack and Immokolee are not going to offer value for money anyway (particularly from a Placepot perspective) so I will stick to my original thoughts.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed at odds of 4/9 and Evens to date.

 

2.35: I talked about two runners in a race in the previous event for Richard Fahey as usually proving to be a tough ask and this race is no different, even though his horses are split at either end of the market at the time of writing.  To make matters worse, there was more interest is Richard’s outsider SHAZZAB than for EXHORT overnight, the potential favourite for the contest.  Either way, Richard is on a hat trick in the contest and with recent showers having gone against Alfa McGuire (2/2 at the track on fast ground), I’ll opt for Richard’s pair against the other four contenders in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three winners at 13/8, 2/1 & 9/4***.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/2—Alfa McGuire (2 x good to fim)

 

3.10: Eleven of the fifteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all five (7/1-13/2-4/1-4/1-2/1*) winners. Unfortunately just the one horse is eliminated from my Placepot thoughts via the weight trend, leaving SONG OF SUMMER (my each way call in the contest), ONEFOOTINPARADISE and SCENIC RIVER to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (2/1) winner.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer and the pick of this year’s quartet of vintage representatives appear to be RITA’S MAN, LIQUID GOLD and BOLLIN TED.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this ‘Rapid Lad’ handicap have changed whereby the contest as it stands now has just five renewals to consider, with three of the seven market leaders finishing in the frame (exact science) – no winners.  Rapid Lad (the race is named after the grand servant) won 12 races at Beverley between 1983 and 1989 during an unbeaten record at the venue.  Strange but true for such a prolific scorer, is the fact that Rapid Lad failed to win anywhere else, other than at Beverley.

Record of the five course winners in field:

1/2—Liquid Gold (good to firm)

1/2—Metronomic (good)

3/6—Bollin Ted (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Paddy’s Rock (good)

2/10—John Caesar (2 x soft)

 

4.20: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.  Call me cynical by all means but I find it ‘strange’ that all five course winners have been drawn against each other in the first division of this event, or is my comment ‘unworthy’?  The pick of the four-year-olds in the second heat could prove to be VIGEE LE BRUN according to the gospel of yours truly, though money for INFLEXIBALL overnight suggests that John Mackie’s raider could bring an end to the four-year-old domination of this event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 18th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £328.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 44.7% units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 8/1

Race 2: 33.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 8/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 39.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 5/2*

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 14/1 – 6/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 66.1% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 8/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 4/1* - 16/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 15 (Mont Kiara), 1 (Ekhtiyaar) & 7 (Danielsflyer)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Nebo), 4 (Rufus King) & 6 (Finneston Farm)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Frankuus), 5 (Euginio) & 6 (Forest Ranger)

Leg 4 (3.35): 8 (Nawaasi), 1 (Altyn Order) & 10 (Soliloquy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (Strings Of Life) & 4 (Hard Forest)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Award Winning) & 8 (Rococo)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Record of the winning trainers at Newmarket this season after yesterday's opening meeting:

1/1--Karl Burke - No more runners here this week

1/1--Stuart Williams - 2 runners at Newmarket today

1/2--Tom Dascombe - 1 runner

1/3--Charlie Appleby - 5 runners

1/3--Charlie Hills - 6 runners

1/3--Mark Johnston 5 runners

1/4--John Gosden - 5 runners

1/5--Kevin Ryan - 2 runners

 

1.50:  MONT KIARA finished third in this event last year and off a three pound lower mark today, the five-year-old could represent in form trainer Kevin Ryan to each way/Placepot effect. Available at 20/1 in a place in the dead of night, those odds have long since disappeared which makes for interesting reading.  Connections will not want the ground to dry up too much this morning relating to the chance of EKHTIYAAR who as a winner of three of his seven races to date, deserves his position at the top of the handicap.  The fact that there will (inevitably) be some moisture not too deep in the ground will play to his strengths, whilst DANIELSFLYER completes my trio against the remaining twelve runners, now that a withdrawal has robbed punters of a fourth place opportunity, from a Placepot perspective at least depending how generous your bookmaker is feeling this morning.  With every favourite beaten on yesterday’s opening card, the layers should still offer a fourth place from my viewpoint, providing at least 14 runners face the starter.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite could only finish tenth in a twelve strong field before last year’s silver medallist at least claimed a Placepot position at 7/2 on behalf of favourite backers.

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Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Ekhtiyaar (good to soft)

2/4—Eastern Impact (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Danielsflyer (good to firm)

 

2.25: The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that the only course winner in the line up RUFUS KING could be worth an each way play at around the 9/1 mark this morning, with Mark Johnston already having had a winner at the meeting.  More logical winners (arguably) include NEBO and FINNISTON FARM who represent the in-form yards of Charlie Hills and Tom Dascombe respectively.

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.  All 19 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have claimed seventeen of the last thirty renewals, whilst securing over half (26/51) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. FRANKUUS (winner of two of four races with ‘soft’ featuring in the going description to date) makes most appeal from the relevant three entries, though both FOREST RANGER and EUGINIO demand plenty of respect in what is considered a fairly ordinary Group 3 event from my viewpoint.  If the vintage trend is to be put off track this time around, ROBIN OF NAVAN could be the potential joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 22 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period in the ‘Earl Of Sefton’ event.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/13—Master The World

 

3.35: John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled three or more winners of this event during the last fourteen years (looking for this fifth ‘recent’ winner this time around) and John makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year. With a winner already secured at the meeting, stable representative NAWAASI makes plenty of each way appeal at 9/1 (thereabouts) this afternoon.  Roger Varian has some good chances on the card and ALTYN ORDER is certainly considered as a main player here, arguably alongside SOLILOQUY.  My reservations about the Aidan O’Brien runners were justified twenty four hours ago besides which, connections of his raider Dramatically might have wished for the sunshine to have stayed away for a few more days.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the nineteen year study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Nell Gwyn’:

1/2—Altyn Order (good)

1/1—Nawaasi (good to soft)

 

4.10'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last eight renewals, though stable contender Ginger Nut might finds a few of these too hot to handle at the first time of asking.  Red Hut Red is one of those to consider, though preference is for Charlie Appleby’s newcomer STRINGS OF LIFE alongside HARD FOREST who could put her brief experience to good use I guess.  STRINGS OF LIFE remains the call however, with Charlie having established such a good record in this type of event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty one years, whilst twelve market leaders snared Placepot positions.  The biggest priced winner during the previous fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011) before the 33/1 gold medallist prevailed two years ago.

 

4.45: Although Qazyna and Ripley are fully expected to win races as three-year-old, I have to remain loyal to John Gosden who has won both races to date.  John’s two entries go straight onto the team sheet accordingly with just two places available via my permutation, namely AWARD WINNING and ROCOCO.  I marginally prefer the pair as listed, mainly because AWARD WINNING also held an entry in a race at Newbury at the weekend, yet John is letting his Dubawi filly take her chance here despite having had Rococo already pencilled in for the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared gold and silver medals ion this event thus far.

 

Record of the course winner in the eighth (non Placepot) race at 5.55:

1/1—Old Persian (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

5.55 Newmarket : Storm Over @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Tracked winner, pushed along 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Wednesday's...

9.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ubla @ 10/3 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 6,  7f A/W handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has finished as a runner-up in his of his last two starts, both at this grade over today's 7f trip, the latest being a mere 2 length defeat on this very track over course and distance just 5 days ago. That said, he has won here before, he's also won at this grade, has won at this trip and has also won when racing just five days after a previous run, so conditions aren't entirely alien to him.

Some people suggest horses don't run as well when turned back out quickly, but in UK A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 151/661 (22.8% SR) for 210.5pts (+31.8% ROI) profit over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and here are ten relevant angles from that main stat...

  1. males are 117/492 (23.8%) for 178.8pts (+36.3%)
  2. those beaten by 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 88/432 (20.4%) for 152.7pts (+35.4%)
  3. at the same class as LTO : 102/430 (23.7%) for 170.5pts (+39.7%)
  4. at Class 6 : 82.352 (23.3%) for 143.8pts (+40.9%)
  5. same distance as LTO : 69/302 (22.9%) for 128.3pts (+42.5%)
  6. 5 days since last run : 54/237 (22.8%) for 64.4pts (+27.2%)
  7. same course and distance as LTO : 34/138 (24.6%) for 84.4pts (+61.1%)
  8. 5 yr olds are 31/132 (23.5%) for 46pts (+34.9%)
  9. here at Kempton : 28/108 (25.9%) for 66.1pts (+61.2%)
  10. and at the same course, distance and class as LTO : 22/83 (26.5%) for 76.7pts (+92.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ubla @ 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th April

AINTREE – APRIL 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £205.80 (10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.8% units went through – 10/1 – 8/1*** - 12/1 – 8/1*** (8/1***)

Race 2: 42.5% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 – 9/4** - 7/1 (9/4**)

Race 3: 94.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 9/2

Race 4: 61.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 14/1

Race 5: 6.3% of the remaining units went through – 50/1 – 22/1 – 66/1 – 12/1 (2 x 8/1**)

Race 6: 47.7% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 – 9/1 – 11/1 (11/4)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 9 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 6 (Storm Home)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (Scarlet Dragon), 4 (Global Citizen) & 13 (Vision Des Flos)

Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Terrefort), 10 (Ms Parfois) & 1 (Black Corton)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Balko Des Flos) & 4 (Min)

Leg 5 (4.05): 22 (Theatre Terriroty), 15 (Ballyalton), 3 (Top Gamble) & 11 (Ultragold)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Santini) & 2 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, with vintage representatives having secured the first three places last year via just 36% of the total number of runners, a result which brought about my 10/1 winner and 92/1 forecast via a trio of nominations.  This year’s short list comprises of WHO DARES WINS, LOUGH DERG SPIRIT and STORM HOME, with the trio listed in marginal preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.  The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013.  The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course.  Four of the subsequent seven favourites (via three renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the opening contest:

1/4—Court Minstrel (good to soft)

1/3—Massini’s Trap (good)

1/2—Cornborough (good to soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 33 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 eight years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions six years back.  Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions two years ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Last year’s three big outsiders (on behalf of the vintage) failed to have a say in the finish, though the likes of SCARLET DRAGON and VISION DES FLOS look sure to go close this afternoon.  That said, Ben Pauling’s hat trick seeker GLOBAL CITIZEN is a live threat and no mistake.

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Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 18 renewals, with eight of the last ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Lalor (good)

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twenty renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago when Might Bite took the honours. Nicky Henderson (Might Bite last year) has saddled no less than fourteen winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last seven years! The Seven Barrows based trainer has offered the green light to TERREFORT this time around with a favourite’s chance, though the chances of seven-year-old raiders MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON are (predictably) respected.  There are worse outsiders on the card than soft ground course winner Captain Chaos at around the 28/1 mark, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 15 of the last 28 renewals (53.6%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 27 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Captain Chaos (soft)

 

3.25: The last twelve winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend looks like being extended on this occasion as only a 33/1 chance in the field is offered the chance of breaking the trend. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers two years ago, 10/1 winner God’s Own scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio.  Willie Mullins has been going through something of a quiet time by his high standards and there is every chance that his representative MIN could get turned over by BALKO DES FLOS despite being made favourite for the contest.  Henry De Bromhead’s ‘Ryanair’ winner was oh so impressive at Cheltenham last month and with MIN stepping up in trip here, I would rather stay with the horse that is proven over the distance, despite the fact that Davy Russell’s mount is dropping back a quarter of a mile after his Prestbury Park success.

Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992.  A further ten market leaders have won, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sizing Granite

 

4.05: 14 of the last 17 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst eleven of the last fifteen winners scored at 50/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1.  Nine and ten-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals whilst securing 35 of the 64 (55%) available Placepot positions between them.  Only two Irish trained winners have emerged in the last 38 years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of THEATRE TERRITORY, BALLYALTON, TOP GAMBLE and last year’s winner ULTRAGOLD. If there is a horse is the field capable of defying the weight stat (aside from Ultragold and Top Gamble) it could be O O SEVEN who ran well to finish fourth in the race last year, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last five winners.

Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last nineteen contests.  Only four of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have claimed Placepot positions.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Ultragold (good)

2/6—Eastlake (good soft)

1/5—Highland Lodge (soft)

 

4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of seven of the last ten contests) as vintage representatives secured the first four places eight years back and silver and bronze medals six years ago.   Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and a 1-2-3 (two years ago – 1-3-4 last year) via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight duo against the other twelve contenders consists of SANTINI and XCHEF DES OBEAUX.  Both horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also saddles the main threat, namely OK CORRAL.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters.  The last four favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 11th April

MARKET RASEN – APRIL 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £539.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 57.5% units went through – 4/6* & 150/1

Race 2: 46.4% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 5/4*

Race 3: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (7/2)

Race 4: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 23.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 (Win only – 5/4* unplaced)

Race 6: 9.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4 (Win only – 9/4 fav unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Mont Des Avalois) & 2 (The King Of May)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Ataguiseamix), 6 (The Bottom Bar) & 4 (Midnight Chill)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Zen Master) & 6 (Chandos Belle)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Red Devil Star), 3 (Roxyfet), 2 (Ballycamp) & 4 (Chateau Chinon)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Monbeg Charmer), 3 (Beggars Wishes) & 5 (Minella Scamp)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Lip Service) & 3 (Cyclops)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: MONT DES AVALOIS should continue the good run of favourites in this event, chiefly at the expense of THE KING OF MAY who was only sent off as a 12/1 chance in the ‘Fred Winter’ at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks ago.  Similarly, Mon Eldorado appears to have plenty in hand of the other runner in this win only contest.  There were three win only races on last year’s Placepot card which helped to produce a good dividend.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/2.

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals of this event and ATAGUISEAMIX has a chance of extending the good run on behalf of vintage representatives, especially with Paul Nicholls having scored with ten of his last 25 runners.  Recent rulings now inform us that Paul’s gelding has had a wind operation whereby his win and place chance in this grade/company cannot be questioned.  Others in the mix include THE BOTTOM BAR and MIDNIGHT CHILL.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.

 

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3.05: Money has surfaced overnight for ZEN MASTER (trainer Charlie Mann saddled the winner three years ago) and along with CHANDOS BELLE, the six-year-old can dominate this field at the business end of proceedings.  MR SNOOZY would be the alternative each way call if pressed, though at least one of the two ‘selections’ should finish in the frame without too much fuss.

Favourite factor: Only one joint favourite has won this event since 2010, with two of the last four winners having prevailed at 18/1 & 10/1.

Record of the three course winners in the field:

2/7—Mr Snoozy (2 x good to soft)

1/1—Zen Master (good)

1/7—Towering (soft)

 

3.35: RED DEVIL STAR strikes me as the likeliest winner of this event, though you only have to look at last year’s results in the three win only contests on the card to deduce that these races can bring about great Placepot rewards.  Accordingly, I will add all four runners into the mix before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  By all means add another bet into the mix using RED DEVIL STAR as a banker in the contest, which would offer you a better return if the rest of the races go to plan.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and bronze medals in win only events.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Roxyfet (soft)

 

4.10: I’m shaking with fear in trepidation of a non-runner evolving, potentially turning this into another nightmarish win only contest!  The pin has fallen on the trio of MONBEG CHARMER, BEGGARS WISHES and MINELLA SCAMP to get us through the crocodile infested waters at the Lincolnshire venue this afternoon.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals, though the second placed jolly failed to claim a Placepot position in a win only contest.

 

4.40: Never wishing to pay LIP SERVICE to a Placepot finale, but Fergal O’Brien’s raider (alongside CYCLOPS) should bring the bacon home for us again today.

Favourite factor: The same stats are in place in successive races on the card as the two jollies have finished first and second in this race too, with the silver medallist losing out on a Placepot position via a win only event.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cyclop (soft)

1/9—Milly Baloo (soft)

 

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

1/1—Myplaceatmidnight (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th April

LUDLOW – APRIL 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.3% units went through – 15/8* & 9/2

Race 2: 22.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 84.0% of the remaining units went through – 1/2* & 7/2

Race 4: 46.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 11/4*

Race 5: 59.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 25/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 5/4* - 33/1 – 9/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 12 (Weebill) & 9 (Shalakar)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Western Climate), 6 (Goohar) & 7 (According To Harry)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Peruvian Bleu), 4 (Raise A Spark) & 2 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Ifandbutwhynot), 2 (Cut The Corner) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Molly Carew), 9 (Diva Du Maquis) & 5 (Goodgirlteresa)

Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Full Throttle) & 1 (Forever My Friend)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Although there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue to back BATTLE OF IDEAS at around the 8/1 mark, the general price on offer is 6/1 whereby Colin Tizzard’s raider is an each way player at best from my viewpoint.  More obvious winners are WEEBILL and SHALAKAR, though Venetia Williams (trains the latter named entry) will have connections doing rain dances this morning I’ll wager!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged, as did four market leaders in the Placepot events on the card by an aggregate of 89 lengths!

 

2.50: The ground will hopefully have dried out enough for the three course winners in the field to offer Placepot investors plenty of hope in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  WESTERN CLIMATE, GOOHAR and ACCORDING TO HARRY are listed in order to preference to get us through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  Fourth Act is the class act in the field if any thoroughbred here can be used in those terms but horses who have run well with blinkers on for the first time do not have a good record in showing similar enthusiasm next time up according to my recollections from following the sport for well over fifty years.  In terms of runs/wins, Colin Tizzard’s raider should be a 13/2 chance via the percentages, not 5/2 as is currently the general offer.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame thus far by winning the relevant event at odds of 13/8.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

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1/2—Western Climate (good)

1/4—Goohar (good to soft)

1/3—According To Harry (good)

 

3.25: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests and with vintage representative PERUVIAN BLEU boasting a 3/3 ratio at the track, you will not be surprised to learn that the Nick Williams raider is the first name on my team sheet.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RAISE A SPARK I fancy, whilst I’M A GAME CHANGER completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include three winners.  That said, only one of the other six market leaders additionally snared a Placepot position during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—I’m A Game Changer – good to soft)

3/3—Peruvian Bleu (3 x good)

 

3.55: Last year’s winner IFANDBUTWHYNOT carries six pounds less this time around despite racing off a two pound higher mark, stats which demand that I include Danny Cook’s mount into the equation.  CUT THE CORNER represents Alistair Ralph who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect, whilst ROCK ON ROCKY also boasts win and place claims.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/5—Colin’s Brother (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Ifandbutwynot (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

4.30: Neil Mulholland is back among the winners and the popular trainer looks to have quite a strong hand here via his two entries, namely MOLLY CAREW and GOODGIRLTERESA.  If Neil and his team are to be denied, DIVA DU MAQUIS appears to be the potential spoiler in the line up.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for mares) on the Ludlow card.

 

5.05: I have only left myself two options here on a competitive card if we hold back from breaking into the ‘family reserves’ in order to appease our Placepot appetite.  Last year’s winner FULL THROTTLE and FOREVER MY FRIEND have edged out Diplomate Sivola and Queen Olivia (represents value for money from an each way perspective) accordingly.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions via two renewals to date, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Forever My Friend (good to firm)

1/1—Full Throttle (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 7th April

KELSO – APRIL 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £77.50 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 2/1** & 5/1 (2/1**)

Race 2: 57.4% of the remaining units when through – 10/3, 3/1* & 10/1

Race 3: 60.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 & 2/1*

Race 4: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 (2/1)

Race 5: 51.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2**, 4/1 & 6/1 (7/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kelso: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Teddy Tee), 3 (Just Georgie), 2 (Hills Of Dubai) & 4 (Acdc)

Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Treshnish), 6 (Taxmeifyoucan) & 8 (Gassin Golf)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Yala Enki) & 5 (Seldom Inn)

Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Landecker), 1 (Donna’s Diamond) & 5 (Taking Risks)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Vengeur De Guye) & 2 (Bobbies Diamond)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Graystown) & 10 (Lastin Memories)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: In all honesty, I only chose Kelso today because ITV were hosting their programme from the Scottish venue because frankly speaking (a topical tip for the horse in the 4.15 at Uttoxeter?), this is a poor day of racing to end a wretched week.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that it is time to retire to the bar at the first time of asking, with all four runners holding realistic claims in this win only contest.  Hoping for the horse with the least number of Placepot units at flag fall to prevail, I would nominate Teddy Tee as the tentative potential winner, though only if the proverbial gun was aimed at yours truly.  Whichever horse prevails (likely as not), at least 60% of the Placepot units will be lost in this opening event, whereby a decent dividend can be expected at Kelso this afternoon.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Kelso today.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/3—Acdc (heavy)

 

2.25: TRESHNISH is the outsider to home on from my viewpoint with Sue Smith’s five-year-old looking to be on a handy mark in this grade/company.  Mirsaale has it all to do as far as the weight trend is concerned as the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-3.  TAXMEIFYOU CAN and GASSIN GOLF are expected to offer most resistance to the win and place selection at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Although market leaders have won via seven renewals thus far, they were all returned as joint favourites.  It’s worth noting that aside from the winners, the other seven jollies all finished out of the frame!

Record of the four course winners in the second contest on the card:

2/2—Mirsalle (good & soft)

1/4—Ubaltique (soft)

1/1—Golden Jeffrey (good)

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1/1—Taxmeifyoucan (heavy)

 

3.00: It would not surprise me if YALA ENKI and SELDOM INN dominated proceedings as the jockeys raise their whips, perhaps in a similar way in which the pair filled the forecast positions in the race last year, even though the trade press would have us believe that this is a new event on the card!  YALA ENKI positively thrives in bad ground (as do so many of the Venetia Williams inmates) and it is very doubtful that the eight-year-old will fail to reach the frame, win lose or draw at around the 5/1 mark at the time of writing. If you ignored the last three efforts of WILD WEST WIND (failed to complete the course on each occasion) you could offer the Tom George raider a chance, though only if you were going to ‘watch’ the race from behind the sofa!

Record of the four course winners in the third race:

1/1—Yala Enki (heavy)

3/7—Seldom Inn (good – good to soft – heavy)

1/3—Samstown (good to soft)

1/7—Harry The Viking (good to soft)

 

3.35: As a five time winner here at Kelso (unsuccessful elsewhere), there will be worse outsiders on today’s card than LANDECKER I’ll wager, especially as the heavy ground should not inconvenience Nick Alexander’s ten-year-old representative.  Connections of DONNA’S DIAMOND will be looking for compensation sooner rather than later having lost the supplementary fee for running in a race at the Cheltenham Festival the other week though that said, now many others in this event would have even been thought of in that regard?  TAKINGRISKS completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders in a half decent contest.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions to date though that said, only one (5/2) market leader has actually won the event to date.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

2/3—Takingrisks (2 x heavy)

4/10—Total Assets (2 x good to soft – soft – heavy)

5/16—Landecker (2 x good to soft – 2 x soft – heavy)

1/1—Letmego (soft)

 

4.10: Having gone ‘over the top’ in the first four races on the card, I am allowing myself just two Placepot chances here, the pin having dropped on VENGEUR DE GUYE and BOBBIES DIAMOND.  The first named raider represents Lucinda Russell who has the best recent record at the corresponding meeting, whilst BOBBIES DIAMOND attracted overnight support which caught the eye at the thick end of a double digit price.

Favourite factor: Contrasting results from the two contests thus far as last year’s 11/8 favourite more than made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 5/2 market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Caraline (heavy)

1/6—Vengeur De Guye (good to soft)

1/4—Oak Vintage (good)

 

4.45: GRAYSTOWN is the win and place call at 14/1 (Ladbrokes) this morning in a race which should not prove difficult to win, despite the declaration of hat trick seeker Haul Us In who does not represent value for money from my viewpoint.  I prefer to nominate LASTIN MEMORIES as the danger to my each way play, despite Sandy Forster’s raider running from two pounds out of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date via four renewals, statistics which include two successful (9/2 & 7/2**) market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Road To Gold (2 x heavy)

1/10—Another Mattie (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 4th April

LINGFIELD – APRIL 4

 

This is a new meeting whereby there are no stats and facts on offer relating to favourites, leading trainers, past Placepot details etc., etc.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 4 (Ertidaad), 6 (Rattle On) & 5 (Rocksette)

Leg 2 (2.10): 1 (Mime Dance) & 2 (Bloodsweatandtears)

Leg 3 (2.45): 2 (Flavius Titus), 4 (Insurgence) & 1 (Tathmeen)

Leg 4 (3.15): 2 (Kalagia) & 3 (Haylah)

Leg 5 (3.45): 4 (Impart) & 2 (Newstead Abbey)

Leg 6 (4.15): 6 (Last Enchantment), 5 (Sweet Symphony) & 4 (Poetic Steps)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Last year’s Placepot dividends at Southwell and Kempton are listed at the foot of today’s column alongside the relevant breakdown of units for each leg twelve months ago + prices of placed horses and unplaced favourites

 

1.40: The early money on the exchanges in the dead of night suggest that ERTIDAAD, RATTLE ON and ROCKSETTE should all figure prominently at the business end of proceedings.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, with ERTIDAAD looking to record his second course win at the fourth attempt.  Trainer Suzi best recorded a 37% strike rate back in February via three winners and the stable could be ready to bounce back to winning ways today with a couple of inmates holding leading chances over the next few days from my viewpoint.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

7/33—Bertie Blu Boy

1/3—Ertidaad

1/3—Rattle On

3/31--Bookmaker

 

2.10: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, with MIME DANCE and BLOODSWATANDTEARS looking a cut above their rivals from the top of the handicap. This pair could dominate the finish of what appears to be the weaker heat of the two contests.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/15—Tabla

1/8—Binky Blue

 

2.45: Roger Varian’s last seven runners have been beaten but I’m not offering that stat from a negative viewpoint regarding any concern for stable representatives.  No, it’s more a case of Roger champing at the bit to put the recent record behind him whereby Roger’s Lethal Force colt FLAVIUS TITUS is the first name on the team sheet ahead of course winner INSURGENCE and TATHMEEN.  The latter named Exceed And Excel colt represents Richard Hannon who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Insurgence

2/5—Bungee Jump

 

3.15: Frankie Dettori’s last mount was for Richard Hannon back on the 24th of last month when the team paired up to winning effect and the bandwagon rolls on here with HAYLAH.  Whether they will cope with KALAGIA is another matter with Mark Johnston’s inmate proving popular with investors overnight.

 

3.45: Trainer David O’Meara has endured a poor run of results for several months now by his high standards, though recent results suggest that the Yorkshire outfit are ready to fight back, their last two runners having won.  It’s typical of David’s luck over the last six months that meetings are being called off here, there and everywhere relating to turf venues, though the chance for his inmate IMPART is there for all to see this afternoon.  Conversely, Michael Herrington has been enjoying a fine period and his winning ways might not be over just yet having declared NEWSTEAD ABBEY in this grade/company.

 

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4.15: Eve Johnson Houghton enjoyed a fabulous 2017 and there is every chance that the trainer can prove that period was far from a flash in pan judged on some early winners this term.  LAST ENCHANTMENT is the first name on the team sheet accordingly ahead of SWEET SYMPHONE and POETIC STEPS.

 

Record of the four course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

2/6—Taverner

1/7—Black Caesar

1/3—Natalie Express

5/16--Clement

Record of the course winner in the eighth contest at 5.15:

1/2—Night Story

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

SOUTHWELL (March 29th last year):

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 62.9% units went through – 9/2, 10/3* & 7/1

Race 2: 99.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/10* & 4/1

Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 & 6/1 (15/8)

Race 4: 73.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/1** (twice)

Race 5: 47.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* & 4/1

Race 6: 54.0% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4, 9/4* & 14/1

 

KEMPTON (April 5th last year):

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £11.60 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 37.1% units went through – 16/1, 9/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 2: 92.6% of the remaining units when through – 1/3*, 20/1 & 4/1

Race 3: 92.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/4*, 9/4 & 33/1

Race 4: 61.7% of the remaining units went through – 2/1*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 5: 76.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 2/1** & 2/1**

Race 6: 42.4% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/2

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 31st March

KEMPTON – MARCH 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £190.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 88.8% units went through – 6/4* & 2/1

Race 2: 76.3% of the remaining units when through – 7/4* & 2/1

Race 3: 39.0% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 10/1 & 13/2 (7/2)

Race 4: 15.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 8/1 & 14/1 (7/4)

Race 5: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 3/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 31.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 (Win only – 2/1* unplaced)

*It’s worth noting that after two legs, the ‘pot was only worth £1.47 (after deductions) albeit successful investors were certainly happy enough by the end of play!  If you include the odd speculative selection, you are rarely far away from a decent return.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 2 (Tigre Du Terre)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Autocratic) & 2 (Dommersen)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Qaysar), 6 (Pivotal Man) & 1 (Plunger)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Time To Blossom), 4 (Warm Oasis) & 5 (Stanley)

Leg 5 (4.20): 8 (Arab Moon), 14 (Kelly’s Dino) & 6 (Contrast)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Solar Flare) & 6 (Sparkalot)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: There is precious little between CROSSED BATON and TUGRE DU TERRE on the exchanges at the time of writing, the two horses vying for favouritism at around the 13/8 mark.  The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that the lads and lasses in the trade press office had the latter named raider as a 4/5 chance overnight.  In the absence of any interest in the other eight contenders (the pick of which should prove to  be Caspar The Cub), this pair will see us safely through to the second leg, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Easter generally causes mass confusion because of the different weeks that that dates fall on year on year.  The Easter meeting was held on April 15 last year which is a good example of what I am trying to say.  Different races have been split between the first two meetings around this time of year down the years whereby I am not offering favourite today because of the ‘confusion’. The Placepot dividend and breakdown of the figures is that of Easter Saturday last year (April 15), some of the races which were included on today’s card – and some not!  This is one of the problems that so many meetings staged at an A/W venue can cause.

 

2.35: Although Sir Michael Stoute has a far better (percentage) record at other all weather tracks (particular those at Chelmsford, Newcastle and Lingfield), his entry AUTOCRATIC might prove too strong for FABRICATE at this stage of the season, whilst course winner DOMMERSEN cannot be entirely overlooked, especially at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dommersen

1/2—Snowy Winter

 

3.10: Although a strong overnight favourite, QAYSAR is relatively easy to back on the exchanges in the dead of night, edging towards 6/5 at the time of writing, having been quoted as a likely 8/11 chance by the trade press.  Fellow course winner PLUNGER and PIVOTAL MAN are standing strong against the market leader, with Emblazoned lacking support as dawn begins to break over Bristol, lighting up yet another wet start to the day.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Plunger

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1/1--Qaysar

 

3.45: After a blank score-sheet in February via seven runners, Simon Crisford boasts a 25% strike rate this month via two winners and TIME TO BLOSSOM could improve the ratio in this grade/company this afternoon.  A winner on his only start at the Sunbury venue, Simon’s dual beaten favourite in his last two races should repay the patience of connections and punters alike. WARM OASIS and STANLEY are nominated as the main threats at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Time To Blossom

2/3—Argus

1/3—Stanley

2/14—Berrahri

1/2—Vincent’s Forever

 

4.20: The positive course stats relating to ARAB MOON confirms my interest in William Knight’s four-year-old which was initially ignited by plenty of realistic money piling up on the Elnadim gelding in the positive exchange earlier this morning.  The dangers include KELLY’S DINO and CONTRAST.  With seven course winners in the contest, this race is likely to end many a Placepot interest, even if the first four contests on the card have gone to plan.

Record of the eight course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Kyllachy Gala

1/12—Fire Fighting

1/5—Emenem

3/4—Arab Moon

1/3—Intrepidly

3/13—Jacob Cats

1/4—Wimpole Hall

 

4.55: Simon Dow has been going great guns of late and with SPARKALOT offering outstanding course statistics here, Simon’s celebrations could be extended over the course of the weekend.  That said, the 8/1 quotes in a place or two about SOLAR FLAIR make for interesting reading.  Beaten less than two lengths in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood the last day, William Knight’s six-year-old would surely go close if anywhere near cherry ripe after a long winter break.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Solar Flare

1/3—Human Nature

4/6—Sparkalot

 

Record of the course winner in the seventh Kempton (non Placepot) at 5.30:

2/4—Lord Cooper

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 23rd March

NEWBURY – MARCH 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,464.50 (All six favourites finished out of the frame!)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 31.6% units went through – 7/4 (Win only – unplaced fav at 11/8)

Race 2: 32.1% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 8/1 & 11/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 8/1 (4/1)

Race 4: 27.7% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 7/2 (7/4)

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 9/1 (13/8)

Race 6: 38.2% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3, 9/1 & 33/1 (11/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Molineaux) & 2 (Euxton Lane)

Leg 2 (2.30): 11 (Morning Reggie), 2 (Halo Moon) & 3 (Private Malone)

Leg 3 (3.05): 10 (Fizzlestix), 5 (Christmas In April) & 4 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Another Frontier), 1 (Ice Cool Champs) & 2 (Le Boizelo)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Moabit) & 7 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Alfstar), 1 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 2 (Vivaldo Collonges)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: I live less than an hour away from Newbury and can report that we had several hours of overnight rain which if Newbury experienced, heavy ground could be the order of the day rather than the official “soft” call overnight.  Upwards and onward with MOLINEAUX expected to ‘enjoy’ the conditions more than most, connections possibly having to fear a challenge from EUXTON LANE at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: One of the three market leaders has claimed a Placepot position to date but even then, the 1/3 favourite was obviously expected to win the relevant contest which the jolly failed to do.

 

2.30: All eight winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 but with MORNING REGGIE sitting just 16 ounces under the ‘superior’ handicap barrier, I’m willing to offer Oliver Sherwood’s raider a chance.  There will certainly be worse 12/1 chances on the card though that ‘trade press quote’ might prove to be a tad fanciful by flag fall I’ll wager. I would have made Kincora Fort a danger but for noting that he was taken out of a ‘heavy ground’ event recently with the trainer suggesting that conditions were unsuitable for the horse.  Accordingly, I’m opting for the likes of HALO MOON and PRIVATE MALONE to offer most resistance up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have finished in the frame via eight renewals, statistics which include two (9/2 & 11/4) winners.

 

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3.05: Six-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-6.  CHRISTMAS IN APRIL boasts ticks in each of the trend boxes with Nicky Henderson appearing to have found a decent opportunity for his event, albeit the ground is something of an unknown factor.  Nicky also saddles DARIUS DES BOIS which clouds the picture to a fashion though either way, FIZZLESTIX looks a major threat, albeit the six-year-olds falls short via the weight trend by some margin, especially with James Bowen taking off a useful three pounds in the plate.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions via eight renewals, statistics which include one 7/2 joint favourite.

 

3.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and all four vintage representatives on this occasion have proved that they can act under testing conditions.  Given that Bobo Mac has trouble negotiating obstacles quite frequently, I will opt for the other trio which are listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing; namely ANOTHER FRONTIER, ICE COOL CHAMPS and LE BOIZELO.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last seven years, whilst two of the other three winners during that period were returned at just 5/1 and 7/2.  Last year’s 12/1 gold medallist upset the applecart to a fashion.

 

4.10: Bryony Frost boasted fabulous aggregate January/February stats of 10/35 in the plate but the brilliant young rider has only been given six opportunities this month (one winner), which just goes to show how tough this game is for pilots to get decent rides.  Bryony appears to have been given a good chance here however aboard MOABIT who has won on both occasions that Bryony has been given the green light to ride.  EARLY DU LEMO is the ‘dark horse’ in the contest.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.

 

4.45: We should land the Placepot dividend if opting for the trio of ALFSTAR, JIMMY THE JETPLANE and VIVALDO COLLONGES against Billy Merriot in a more open Hunter Chase than we normally anticipate.  The latter named raider represents last year’s winning connections but the ground might have gone against the twelve-year-old overnight.

Favourite factor: As usual in Hunter Chase events, favourites have a good record having won five renewals during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists having scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Monetaire (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific details for Newbury on Friday:

It rained for several hours here in the west-country overnight whereby you should check the going before placing any bets.  “Soft” was the official overnight call but there could well be heavy areas if Newbury has endured the amount of rain we received in Bristol.

 

SEDGEFIELD ON FRIDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend: £172.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 31.8% units went through – 5/1, 4/1**, 40/1 (4/1**)

Race 2: 98.7% of the remaining units when through – 13/8, 11/10* & 5/1

Race 3: 18.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 28/1 & 11/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/1, 9/2 & 11/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 51.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 10/1

Race 6: 62.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/13* (Win only event)

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st March

HAYDOCK – MARCH 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £42.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 73.2% units went through – 3/1 & 10/11*

Race 2: 79.0% of the remaining units when through – 1/14* (Win only)

Race 3: 64.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* & 9/4

Race 4: 18.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 16/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 42.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 52.5% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* (Win only)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Midnight Shadow) & 3 (Think Ahead)

Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Chicago Lady), 5 (Touch Of Velvett) & 2 (Bitumen Belle)

Leg 3 (3.15): 6 (Hills Of Dubai), 5 (Just Georgie) & 4 (Bako De La Saulaie)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Snougar), 3 (Absolutely Dylan) & 2 (Doc Carver)

Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Until Winning), 8 (Swing Hard) & 6 (Whiskey Chaser)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Calipso Collonges) & 3 (Champagne George)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: THINK AHEAD looks the only logical danger to MIDNIGHT SHADOW who is remaining very firm around the 1/2 mark at the time of writing.  Donald Whillans has his team in good form (3/6 of late) but Keyboard Gangster probably needs the favourite to find trouble negotiating the obstacles to score here whilst possibly finding Think Ahead difficult to pass at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

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2.40: The two outsiders in the trade press are going to be included in my Placepot mix today; despite their 7/1 & 25/1 quotes. There has been some support for TOUCH OF VELVETT overnight, whilst Phil Kirby (BITUMEN BELLE) has rarely had his runners in better form, with five of his last eleven runners having prevailed.  For all that, CHICAGO LADY is the more logical winner of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Haydock card.

 

3.15: Recent winners HILLS OF DUBAI and JUST GEORGIE represent some value down at the bottom of the weights, whilst BAKO DE LA SAULAIE also receives concessions from the other pair in the ‘short field’ line-up.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites (5/2 & 7/4) have prevailed this far.

 

3.50: SNOUGAR is another live Donald McCain raider on the card (see stats below) and Donald’s Arakan gelding can follow up his recent soft ground Ayr victory successfully in this grade/company.  The pick of the opposition arguably includes ABSOLUTELY DYLAN and DOC CARVER.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Haydock programme.

 

4.20: Jonjo O’Neill ‘boasts’ stats of just 5/96 in the NH sector in 2018 whereby I will pass over his raider Spookydooky this afternoon in favour of UNTIL WINNING, SWING HARD and WHISKEY CHASER.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Solid Strike in a competitive (if ordinary) contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the only course winner on the Placepot card:

1/2—Whiskey Chaser (heavy)

 

4.55: This contest should be relatively plain sailing for CALIPSO COLLONGES though thanks to another success yesterday, I can afford to add a another runners into the Placepot equation in case a fencing error stops the odds on market leader in his tracks.  CHAMPAGNE GEORGE receives the alternative vote.

Favourite factor: Both 5/1 and 1/2 market leaders are still on the missing list after failing to reach the frame thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stats relating to Haydock’s card on Wednesday:

Donald McCain has only saddled more winners at Bangor (144), Sedgefield (97) and Carlisle (68) than the trainer has secured at Haydock (65) down the years.

Donald’s ratio this season at the track  is outstanding, boasting a ratio of 8/17 (47% strike rate), stats which have produced 15 points of level stake profit.

Donald saddles five runners today: Chicago Lady (2.40), Hills Of Dubai (3.15), Snougar (3.50), Whiskey Chaser (4.20) & Tailor Tom (4.55)