Saturday's Pick was...
2.40 York : Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, headway in centre chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on into 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG
...in a 12-runner, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...
Well, we've got a 4 yr old filly who has been running consistently well over the last 6 months, making the first three in six of her seven starts in that period and won last time out at Lingfield 30 days ago.
That was also a Class 4, 6 furlong A/W handicap where she was ridden by today's jockey Irineu Goncalves, so conditions shouldn't be entirely alien to her today.
Generally speaking, Chris Dwyer's A/W runners who won LTO also on the A/W are worth at least a second glance, since they're 23 from 85 (27.1% SR) since the start of 2013. Sadly, they don't quite make a profit from blind backing (not that I'd advocate that anyway) : they've actually lost 1.03pts at Betfair SP.
However, this is such a small loss that they remain of serious interest because (a) any blind approach with an SR of 25% or higher is a good starting point and (b) they'd be profitable at early BOG odds like we take, especially as those eventually sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 22/58 (39.3% SR) for 20.3pts profit (+36.3% ROI).
So, the basic premise here is to follow Chris Dwyer's shorter priced LTO winners.
That approach brought Rose Berry into my thinking and also at the back of my mind I has this vague memory that one of Mr Dwyer's successful angles was with lower grade handicappers on Polytrack, so I did a bit of data mining and discovered that since the start of 2016, his Class 4 to 7 Polytrack handicappers have won 28 of 137 races (20.4% SR) for profits of 166.4pts at an ROI of 121.4%, which are very decent figures indeed.
But we need to see how those numbers would fit into today's contest and what I found was that of the 28/137 stat...
- over trips of a mile and shorter : 25/121 (20.7%) for 172.9pts (+142.9%)
- 6-30 days since last run : 27/105 (25.7%) for 196.1pts (+186.8%)
- at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 22/61 (36.1%) for 33.1pts (+54.3%) further proof that the market tends to get the Dwyer horses right.
- in September / October : 8/33 (24.2%) for 62pts (+188%)
- Fav / jt fav / co-fav (all a possibility here today) : 13/23 (56.5%) for 17.26pts (+75%)
- LTO winners : 10/20 (50%) for 15.22pts (+76.1%)
- and those ridden by Irineu Goncalves are 3/5 960%) for 130.75pts (+261.5%)
...all steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG , a price widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday evening ans was still there at 9.00am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!