Posts

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Salisbury : Singing The Blues @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 (Prominent, ridden to lead over 1f out, hard pressed, stayed on, but headed at post and beaten by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kingston Kurrajong @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Standard To Slow Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark 4lbs lower than today and although he has only 4 career wins to his name...

  • 3 were at 8/8.5 furlongs
  • 2 were for trainer William Knight (more on him very shortly)
  • 2 were here at Kempton
  • 2 were over course and distance
  • 2 were at Class 5
  • and 2 were in June

Trainer William Knight is 3 from 8 so far this month, whilst longer-term here at Kempton, his A/W handicappers are 27 from 167 (16.2% SR) for 39.1pts (+23.4% ROI) since the start of 2015, from which...

  • males are 27/148 (18.2%) for 58.1pts (+39.3%)
  • at Class 4/5 : 20/83 (24.1%) for 50.2pts (+60.5%)
  • at Evens to 11/2 : 19/53 (35.9%) for 26pts (+49%)
  • at 11-45 dslr : 18/108 (16.7%) for 59.4pts (+55%)
  • and in May/June : 5/26 (19.2%) for 29.7pts (+114.4%)

...and if you wanted a William Knight / Kempton A/W composite angle, you could back his male Class 4-6 runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter within 25 days of their last run for 13 winners from 33 (39.4% SR) and 27.8pts (+84.2% ROI) profit and these include 4 from 9 at this 1m C&D  and also 2 winners from 4 so far this year...

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Kingston Kurrajong @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Hills & Paddy Power at 6.20pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.50 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.30 Bangor : Steel Wave @ 3/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Soon mid-division, closed 5th, went 2nd before 12th, not fluent 3 out, challenged 2 out, led before last, all out to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

8.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Knight Crusader @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?...

A 7 yr old gelding with 2 wins and 5 places from his ten starts to date, including the following form lines of relevance today...

  • 14312 after 1-4 weeks rest
  • 38112 over a 2m trip
  • 3122 under jockey Adam Kirby
  • 122 in Class 4 races worth at least £6,000
  • 122 in handicaps
  • 331 here at Kempton
  • and he's 1 from over course and distance.

Only beaten by a length LTO, when headed late on at Goodwood 12 days ago, getting reeled in by one carrying some 12lbs less on quicker ground than today, but I fancy him to make amends here and continue his good recent form for trainer John O'Shea whose record with horses running in UK handicaps within 60 days of an LTO-top 3 finish stands at 43 from 203 (21.2% SR) for 85.9pts (+42.3% ROI) since the start of 2015 and of those 43 winners...

  • 40 are from the 139 (28.8%) sent off at 8/1 and shorter producing 77.6pts at an ROI of 55.8%
  • 28/111 (25.2%) for 45.2pts (+40.7%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • 28/117 (23.9%) for 89.7pts (+76.6%) at the same class as LTO
  • 25/116 (21.6%) for 80.1pts (+69%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 24/118 (20.3%) for 72.7pts (+61.6%) since the start of 2017
  • 23/95 (24.2%) for 43.7pts (+46%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 23/100 (23%) for 79.8pts (+79.8%) from May to August
  • 14/61 (23%) for 64.5pts (+105.7%) from those beaten by a head to 2 lengths LTO
  • 14/71 (19.7%) for 16.7pts (+23.5%) on the A/W
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 53pts (+155.9%) from those with 1 previous C&D success
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 35.9pts (+73.2%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 5/18 (27.8%) for 11.3pts (+62.7%) here at Kempton

...and if you wanted a 20-ish bets per year micro, then...those sent off at 8/1 or shorter over a trip equal to or within 1.5 furlongs of LTO at the same class or within 1 class of LTO after less than 3 weeks rest are 32/98 (32.7% SR) for 73.2pts (+74.7% ROI), giving us 85% of the original stat's profits from just 48% of the bets and these include 10 winners from 35 (28.6%) for 20.2pts (+57.8%) from those beaten by a head to two lengths last time...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Knight Crusader @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & Betway at 6.05pm on Tuesday with plenty of more than acceptable 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th April 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.05 Wetherby : Fingerontheswitch @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, headway chasing leaders 7th, 3rd and one pace from 4 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1on Polytrack ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old Colt might well be 0 from 4 so far, but the margin of defeat has been reduced on each occasion and he made the frame for the first time last time out. In that contest, he was beaten by three lengths, finishing third here over this course and distance 30 days ago on handicap debut despite coming off a 10-week lay off.

Luke Morris was riding him for the first time that day and he keeps the ride today. The horse should come on for having had the run last time out and with a 1lb drop in the weights, he should go well again today for trainer Robert Cowell.

And it's this hoped-for benefit of a previous run which attracted me to the horse because...

...Robert Cowell + A/W handicaps + runners with just one hcp run in the previous 90 days + odds shorter than 5/1 = 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 13.71pts (+85.7% ROI) and whilst that's not the biggest sample size I've ever used for SotD, the following subsets of data suggest this isn't just a lucky coincidence, as from those 16 runners...

  • males are 7/15 (46.7%) for 10.59pts (+70.6%)
  • those beaten by more than a length LTO are 5/7 (71.4%) for 11.98pts (+171.1%)
  • those last seen 21-60 days ago are 4/7 (57.1%) for 10.39pts (+148.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 8.87pts (+147.8%)
  • Class 6 runners are 2/4 (50%) for 2.64pts (+65.9%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 1/2 (50%) for 4.31pts (+215.5%)
  • and those racing here at Kempton are 1/1 (100%) for 3.44pts (+344%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hooflepuff @ 10/3 BOG which was widely available at 11.55pm on Thursday (6.55pm here),. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Lucarno Dancer @ 10/3 BOG UR at 3/1 (Chased leaders, blundered and unseated rider 5th)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo fillies over 6f on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly (obvs!) has never finished outside the first four home in seven starts on the A/W, winning twice : firstly over this very course and distance back in October and more recently last time out, 37 days ago, over 5f at Wolverhampton.

She has finished 1st and 3rd on her two previous visits to Kempton, she's 2 from 3 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter and is 1 from 1 over track and trip.

Her jockey Richard Kingscote has been on good form of late winning 7 of 30 (23.3% SR) for 42.06pts (+140.2% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include...

  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 48.06pts (+200.2%) on Polytrack
  • 4/10 (40%) for 47.93pts (+479.3%) here at Kempton
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) over 6 furlongs
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9.71pts (+485.5%) here at Kempton over this 6f C&D.

None of those 30 rides above have been for today's trainer Stuart Williams, but over the last two years, the duo have 7 wins from 34 (20.6% SR) together, generating profits of 12.24pts (+36% ROI) and with today's race in mind, they include...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) in handicaps
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 6/24 (25%) for 11.74pts (+48.9%) with horses with a run in the previous 40 days
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 20.4pts (+156.7%) over 6f
  • 2/8 (25%) for 6.84pts (+85.6%) at Class 5

...whilst from the above...handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1 within 40 days of their last run are 6 from 14 (42.9% SR) for 21.74pts (+155.3% ROI), including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 16.87pts (+281.2%) over 6f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Darebin @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, went right 4 out, headed 2 out, soon no chance with winner, weakened, lost 2nd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treacherous 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on poly track, worth £9338 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, as I seem to be hitting more woodwork than a twitchy woodpecker, I'm going to try and keep this one pretty simple with a hat-trick seeking 5 yr old gelding who won at Newcastle over 6f 6 weeks ago and then here over this 6f C&D 3 weeks later/ago.

To date he is 5 from 13 (38.5% SR plus 4 places) on the A/W for 18.71pts (+144% ROI) profit, including...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.7pts (+164.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 14.88pts (+124%) here at Kempton
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) under jockey Callum Shepherd
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) within 6-25 days of his last run
  • 3/5 (60%) for 10.57pts (+211.4%) over 6f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.73pts (+168.3%) over this Kempton 6f course and distance

...and from the above...In Kempton handicaps at 5/1 and shorter under Callum Shepherd at 6-25 days since last run = 3/5 (60% SR) for 13.36pts (+267.2% ROI) including a 2/2 (100%) record over C&D worth 8.73pts (+436.5%).

He is trained by Ed de Giles, whose LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 21.2pts (+58.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2015, from which...

  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 10/22 (45.5%) for 17.1pts (+77.6%)
  • here at Kempton : 4/13 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+40%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 5/9 (55.5%) for 24.21pts (+269%)
  • and those ridden by Callum Shepherd are 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 7.6pts (+108.4%)

...whilst 5 yr olds sent off at 5/1 and shorter here at Kempton are 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.36pts (+218% ROI), with Callum having ridden one of them : Treacherous LTO!

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Treacherous 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BlackType at 7.05pm on Friday evening, although take 10/3 BOG from Skybet if you can, as I've done. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

7.30 Wolverhampton : Debbonair  @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 15/8 (Prominent, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rivas Rob Roy 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, 4yo+, A/W Handicap over 7f on Polytrack, worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

As the longer/more complicated explanations of the last few days haven't really worked out for us, I'm going to keep it really simple today with a 4yr old gelding who was only beaten by a nose when last seen four weeks ago and runs off a mark some 6lbs lower than his last winning effort.

So, he's running well and could be favourably weighted, which piqued my interest, because trainer John Gallagher's horses running off marks lower than their last win and who are coming off a losing streak of five or more races are 18/131 (13.7% SR) for 60.4pts (+46.1% ROI) since 2011 with an A/E of 1.34 and of these 131 runners...

  • those racing at trips no further than 1.5 miles are 17/116 (14.7%) for 65.2pts (+56.2%)
  • those 1-7 lbs lower than their last winning mark are 14/94 (14.9%) for 45.9pts (+48.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 14/84 (16.7%) for 65.25pts (+77.7%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 15/69 (21.7%) for 51.5pts (+74.7%)
  • after a break of over 25 days since their last run : 10/50 (20%) for 80.6pts (+161.2%)
  • and 26-30 dslr : 4/11 (36.4%) for 56.9pts (+517.3%)

...whilst based on the above...at 5f-1m4f + 1-7lbs lower than last win + Class 5/6 + 10/1 max SP + 16-180 dslr = 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.5pts (132.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rivas Rob Roy 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2019

Friday's Pick was...

1.30 Wolverhampton : Swiss Cross @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Led, ridden and edged right over 1f out, headed 120 yards out, no extra towards finish, beaten by just 2 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

Well, to be honest, there is some some data to back up the selection, but not as much as usual. I did however, like the horse's chances here and at 13/2 BOG, I thought that price was far too high and the apparent value in the price made up for the lack of comprehensive data, if you follow. (as low as 7/2 at 9.00am now!)

Stat-wise, we have a 5yr old gelding switched to the A/W for the first time five starts ago and he has since won twice and placed twice in that handful of runs, all on Polytrack. To date in his career he has...

  • 5 wins and 4 places from 13 off a mark of 71-80
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at Class 4
  • 1 win and 1 place wearing a visor

He also became of interest , because I spotted that the under-rated (IMO) Kathy Begley (née Glenister) had been booked for the ride and she's in sparkling form right now. She mainly rides for today's trainer David Evans and over the last six weeks or so, all her 16 rides (sadly under-used) have been for David, culminating in 7 winners and 4 placers with the 43.75% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 34.47pts at an ROI of 215.4% and these include...

  • OR 50-80 : 7/13 (53.8%) for 37.5pts (+288.2%)
  • in hcps : 5/13 (38.5%) for 29pts (+222.7%)
  • males : 5/12 (41.7%) for 23.7pts (+197.5%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 6/11 (54.5%) for 29.4pts (+267.6%)
  • 10-13 runners : 5/10 (50%) for 32pts (+320%)
  • on Polytrack : 4/8 (50%) for 21.4pts (+267.1%)
  • and when Kathy claims 5lbs : 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.52pts (+184%)

 ...giving us a 1pt win bet on Scofflaw @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out all day/night Sunday, so Matt will be in the chair for Monday's selection. I'll be back with you on Monday (for Tuesday) as normal : enjoy your weekend!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent and lost place 4th, given reminders and soon closed back up, not fluent 7th, led 9th, headed 4 out, lost 2nd after 2 out and well beaten 3rd last)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m3f on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got an in-form 6 yr old mare who's well drawn and comes here off the back of an LTO win at this very track 5 weeks ago. In all honestly, she really needed the line to come that day over 1m4f, so a slight drop back in trip might not be a bad thing.

To date she has 6 wins and 5 places from her 19 handicap visits to this track, including...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 155.6pts (+864.3%) in fields of 7 or more runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 158.6pts (+1057.1%) when aiming for a prize of £4,000 or less
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 162.6pts (+1477.9%) in the October-March half of the year
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.34pts (+84.9%) in cheekpieces
  • and 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 14.34pts (+239%) when all four above conditions have been in place, as they are today.

Magic Mirror is trainer Mark Rimell's only runner anywhere today and over the last five years, when his only runner of the day was running on the A/W, he has landed the spoils on 8 of 47 (17% SR) occasions at an A/E of 1.59 and generating level stakes profits of 145.7pts at an ROI of 310% along the way.

With this contest in mind, those 47 runners are...

  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 147.7pts (+328.2%) in handicaps
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 149.7pts (+348.1%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 158.7pts (+466.7%) from September to March
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 153.7pts (+512.3%) at 6-35 dslr
  • 6/30 (20%) for 143.6pts (+478.6%) from females
  • 7/25 (28%) for 158.6pts (+634.4%) here at Kempton
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 27.5pts (+130.8%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 20.63pts (+137.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.34pts (+45.3%) in cheekpieces
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.7pts (+67.1%) as LTO winners

...whilst from the above... A/W hcps at Kempton for less than £4k in Sept-March at 8/1 or shorter within 5 weeks of their last run = 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.4pts (+279.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.20pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

1.45 Ludlow : Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, not fluent 2nd, closed 4th, challenged 3 out, every chance flat, stayed on, just held by neck, lacking the will to go past the leader)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tigerfish @ 5/1 or 11/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4f on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner last time out 30 days ago over this trip at this class under today's jockey Hollie Doyle and is the only runner in this contest with a recent victory.

Over the last two years, she has been sent off 10 times in the 11/4 to 6/1 odds range in handicaps, winning 5 times (50% SR) for 19.93pts (+199.3% ROI) profit, from which...

  • at Class 6 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.42pts (+160.2%)
  • on the A/W : 3/6 (50%) for 13.03pts (+217.1%)
  • under Hollie Doyle : 3/5 (60%) for 14.03pts (+280.6%)
  • after a win LTO : 2/3 (60.6%) for 7.89pts (+263.1%)
  • and over this 1m4f trip : 1/1 (10)%) for 6.37pts (+637%)

Her trainer William Stone is 7/25 (28% SR) for 14.83pts (+59.3% ROI) with LTO winners sent off on the 11/4 to 7/1 odds range since 2011 and they include of relevance today...

  • 10-30 dslr : 7/20 (35%) for 19.83pts (+99.2%)
  • on the A/W : 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.79pts (+56.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/17 (29.4%) for 9.53pts (+56%)
  • October-February : 6/14 (42.9%) for 20.1pts (+143.5%)
  • 2017/18 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.2pts (+168.9%)
  • with Hollie Doyle : 2/4 (50%) for 10.15pts (+253.8%)
  • and here at Kempton : 1/1 (100%) for 4.94pts (+494%)

...whilst from the above... A/W + Class 6 + Jan/Feb + 10-30dslr = 4/8 (50% SR) for 12.78pts (+159.7% ROI) and they include Tigerfish's win back in February 2017 under Hollie Doyle, which leads us nicely to my final piece of relevant data, which tells us that...

...Doyle + Stone + C5-7 A/W hcps over 7-12 f = 10/40 (25% SR) for 42.65pts (+106.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Tigerfish @ 5/1 or 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening (I'll obviously use 5/1 in my results). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, chased clear leader 4th, closed next, led 4 out, quickened clear 2 out, comfortable victory by 14 lengths) : Finally, a winner after 3 runners-up on the bounce!

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Livvy's Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack ground worth £5693 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly carries bottom weight here, but brings the best recent form to the table, having won 3 of 6 handicaps this year, finishing 112 in her last three starts, including a win here over a mile in mid-September (her only previous run here) and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths over this trip at Newmarket 27 days ago in a better race than this. She now drops in class for her return to the All-Weather.

Stat-wise, I'm keeping it simple again by looking at trainer Charles Hills, because since the start of 2011, his 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ handicaps over trips further than a mile are 25 from 167 (15% SR) for 14.7pts (+8.8% ROI), a decent starting point that gives us the following of relevance today...

  • at 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs : 18/117 (15.4%) for 27.7pts (+23.7%)
  • 26-90 days since last run : 14/78 (18%) for 42.7pts (+54.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 24.8pts (+45.1%)
  • placed 2nd or 3rd LTO : 11/45 (24.4%) for 18.6pts (+41.4%)
  • on the A/W : 8/41 (19.5%) for 41.1pts (+100.3%)
  • beaten by 0.5 to 3 lengths LTO : 8/31 (25.8%) for 54.3pts (+175.1%)
  • and in November : 2/10 (20%) for 25.81pts (+258.1%)

...and from the above...Class 4 to 6 runners over 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs, 26-90 days after their last run are 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 33.4pts (+74.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Livvy's Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & Betfair respectively at 5.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Doncaster : Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9747 to the winner...  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare's most recent form is both impressive and consistent with finishes of 22F22141 in her last eight outings, with the final three (141) being her record in handicap chases, concluding in a win LTO (albeit 207 days ago) in a Listed contest over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham, so if she's ready to go, a double drop in class could help today.

Regular jockey Lee Edwards is in the saddle once again and will be hoping to improve this mare's record which already includes of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at trips beyond 2.5 miles
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 in a hood
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 with a tongue tie
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins from 4 on good ground

She's by Midnight Legend and regular/long-standing readers will know of my fondness for backing offspring of this particular (but sadly now departed) stallion, not because of sentiment however, but because there are a myriad of profitable angles associated with him. Today's flagged Midnight Legend micro is another of those that looks more complicated in print than it really is, but here goes...

...UK / NH / 3m1f or shorter / Good ground or softer / Class 2-4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / 3 weeks to 8 months off track...

...which might seem a fairly narrow category, but today's pick will be the 800th qualifier since the start of 2013 and with 142 winners (17.8% SR) and 260.5pts (+32.6% ROI) profit in that time, it's a handy one to keep an eye on. With respect to today's contest, those 799 runners are...

  • 99/540 (18.3%) for 218.4pts (+40.4%) in handicaps
  • 48/283 (17%) for 71.7pts (+25.4%) over fences
  • 41/241 (17%) for 59.4pts (+29.7%) in handicap chases
  • 55/237 (23.2%) for 188.9pts (+79.7%) at Class 3
  • 42/212 (19.8%) for 117.9pts (+55.6%) on Good ground
  • 45/207 (21.7%) for 126pts (+60.9%) in females-only races
  • 32/191 (16.8%) for 72.2pts (+37.8%) after a break of 3 to 8 months
  • 33/139 (23.7%) for 29.2pts (+21%) from LTO winners
  • 24/119 (20.2%) for 73.4pts (+61.7%) as 8 yr olds
  • and 11/67 (16.4%) for 45.2pts (+67.4%) over the 2m5f trip

...whilst, from the above, for a smaller number of bets per year : Class 3 handicap chasers are 22/101 (21.8%) for 50.75pts (+50.25% ROI) with those sent off at 5/2 to 5/1 winning 13 of 28 (34.2%) for 21.2pts (+55.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Doncaster : Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9747 to the winner...  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare's most recent form is both impressive and consistent with finishes of 22F22141 in her last eight outings, with the final three (141) being her record in handicap chases, concluding in a win LTO (albeit 207 days ago) in a Listed contest over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham, so if she's ready to go, a double drop in class could help today.

Regular jockey Lee Edwards is in the saddle once again and will be hoping to improve this mare's record which already includes of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at trips beyond 2.5 miles
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 in a hood
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 with a tongue tie
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins from 4 on good ground

She's by Midnight Legend and regular/long-standing readers will know of my fondness for backing offspring of this particular (but sadly now departed) stallion, not because of sentiment however, but because there are a myriad of profitable angles associated with him. Today's flagged Midnight Legend micro is another of those that looks more complicated in print than it really is, but here goes...

...UK / NH / 3m1f or shorter / Good ground or softer / Class 2-4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / 3 weeks to 8 months off track...

...which might seem a fairly narrow category, but today's pick will be the 800th qualifier since the start of 2013 and with 142 winners (17.8% SR) and 260.5pts (+32.6% ROI) profit in that time, it's a handy one to keep an eye on. With respect to today's contest, those 799 runners are...

  • 99/540 (18.3%) for 218.4pts (+40.4%) in handicaps
  • 48/283 (17%) for 71.7pts (+25.4%) over fences
  • 41/241 (17%) for 59.4pts (+29.7%) in handicap chases
  • 55/237 (23.2%) for 188.9pts (+79.7%) at Class 3
  • 42/212 (19.8%) for 117.9pts (+55.6%) on Good ground
  • 45/207 (21.7%) for 126pts (+60.9%) in females-only races
  • 32/191 (16.8%) for 72.2pts (+37.8%) after a break of 3 to 8 months
  • 33/139 (23.7%) for 29.2pts (+21%) from LTO winners
  • 24/119 (20.2%) for 73.4pts (+61.7%) as 8 yr olds
  • and 11/67 (16.4%) for 45.2pts (+67.4%) over the 2m5f trip

...whilst, from the above, for a smaller number of bets per year : Class 3 handicap chasers are 22/101 (21.8%) for 50.75pts (+50.25% ROI) with those sent off at 5/2 to 5/1 winning 13 of 28 (34.2%) for 21.2pts (+55.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.45 Chepstow : Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, jumped right 2nd, led 14th, mistake next, edged left before last, awkward and headed at last, 3rd and no extra towards finish) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 5-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £15562 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has finished 211 since going handicapping and now seeks a hat-trick after wins at Leicester and then Chelmsford 18 days ago after a break of 19 days, so another Polytrack run after a similar absence today. She's 2 from 2 under today's jockey, Nicola Currie and 1 from 1 on the A/W, but her suitability for the artificial tracks isn't a surprise, as she's a daughter of Farhh...

...a 2nd year stallion, whose offspring are proving to be worth watching so far, winning 34 of 169 (20.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts at an ROI of 14.7% and these include of relevance today...

  • 3yr olds : 25/104 (24%) for 26.2pts (+25.2%)
  • in handicaps : 19/70 (27.1%) for 22.8pts (+32.6%)
  • 3yr old handicappers : 169/65 (29.2%) for 27.8pts (+42.8%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 26.4pts (+60.1%)
  • LTO winners are 7/31 (22.6%) for 9.36pts (+30.2%)
  • 3yr old A/W runners are 8/25 (32%) for 23.2pts (+92.8%)
  • A/W handicappers are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.4pts (+84.4%)
  • and 3 yr old A/W handicappers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 17.4pts (+124%)

Trainer Mike Murphy also has a good record of getting LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 20 of 94 (21.3% SR) occasions since 2012, generating profits of 30.3pts at an ROI of 32.2% along the way, including the following...

  • in handicaps : 17/83 (20.5%) for 32.2pts (+38.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.2pts (+20%)
  • after a break of 4-20 days : 15/49 (30.6%) for 35.2pts (+71.8%)
  • on the A/W : 14/48 (29.2%) for 23.9pts (+49.8%)
  • since 2016 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+91%)
  • female runners are 8/32 925%) for 14.7pts (+46%)
  • at Kempton : 3/12 (25%) for 0.26pts (+2.2%)
  • and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/4 (50%) for 3.05pts (+76.4%)

And seeing as we've looked at the horse, her sire and her trainer, we might as well take a quick look at jockey Nicola Currie, a very promising/talented rider IMO, who to date has ridden 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for Mike Murphy so far and a £20 stake on each of the 24 would have made you a handy £199 profit at an ROI of 41.5% and these rides include...

  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.96pts (+47.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.28pts (+25.2%) on the A/W
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%) here at Kempton...

...which all points us towards... a 1pt win bet on Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms by 5.20pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Kempton

Please Note : due to a family commitment, Thursday's selection will not appear until late Wednesday / early Thursday, although I'll endeavour to have it done by midnight if possible!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!