Tag Archive for: Kempton racecourse

Tix Picks, Friday 27/12/24

Hi everyone, I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas, we had a quiet (but still enjoyable) one.

Friday's racing comes from Chepstow, Kempton, Leopardstown, Limerick, Wetherby & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a huge £75,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton bettered only by the £100k guaranteed at Chepstow...

I really should tackle one of those bigger pots, so I'll ease myself back into 'work mode' with a trip to Kempton for six races on good to soft ground that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 12.45...Inappropriate made the frame in six of ten on the Flat, winning twice in his last three efforts before landing a 2m Class 2 race at Newcastle on hurdling debut eight weeks ago and looks like having more to give. Lucky Bere landed two Flat races over 1m4f on heavy ground in France earlier this year and ran well enough to finish second behind a 4/7 fav over this course and distance on his UK/hurdles/yard debut two months ago.

Midnight Rumble had a win and three silvers from his last five starts on the Flat and whilst this is a big step up in trip on hurdle debut, he could still go well for a yard in good form. Nardaran has only raced once to date, finishing third at Saint Cloud on very soft ground. He now makes a UK/hurdles/yard debut for Paul Nicholls who won this race in 2021 and speaks highly of the horse.

Kinetic took a while to get going on hurdles debut at Newbury nine days ago after having won 4 of 20 on the Flat/AW. She made mistakes early and had a lot of ground to make and although only 4th of 9, was doing her better work late on and could improve for the run. Of these five (and in card order), I'm taking (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2 @ 1.20...West Balboa has made the frame in 7 of 11 (4 wins) over hurdles and although well beaten in two Listed races ( 1 hurdle, 1 chase) so far this term, was a decent 3rd of 21 in a Class 1 handicap over this trip at Aintree in April. Della Casa Lunga finished as runner-up in a Listed race here a month ago and the drop in class is sure to help her. She did win over this trip as recently as four starts ago, when over 8 lengths clear at Ludlow.

Royale Margaux is somehow still a maiden after 13 starts ( 9 x chase, 4 x hurdle), but was second at Ascot beaten by just 2.5 lengths on November and then 4th of 12 in a Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (3.75 lengths down) a fortnight ago, so she's definitely in good nick. That Ascot run was not only her best performance to date, but also the only time she has gone beyond 2m5f, so this trip might suit her better. Larchmont Lass finished 24145 over hurdles last season but win on her reappearance at Wincanton in early November and backed that up with a third place on heavy ground at Sandown three weeks ago. Her two wins have been at 2m6f, so she should also relish the extra yardage today.

No actual standouts here for me, but I'll take (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass in card order.

Leg 3 @ 1.55...This really should be a two-horse race between (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino and I'll put both on my bet builder.

Ballyburn has only failed to win once to date and that was when a runner-up in a 24-horse contest on hurdles debut just over a year ago. Since then, he has landed three Grade 1 hurdles and was a 13-length winner on his chase debut at Punchestown five weeks ago when coming back off a 204-day break. Sir Gino is five from five over hurdles so far, winning a pair of Grade 1 contests either side of a 233-day absence in his last two starts. If he takes to fences as he has done to hurdles, he could be a real prospect.

Leg 4 @ 2.30...Edwardstone has made the frame in more than half of his 32 career starts with a very record of 10 wins from 29 over hurdles/fences. He has fallen in two of his last four, but won a Grade 2 at Newbury in February and was only beaten by just over two lengths at that level in November at Cheltenham. Boothill was a Class 2 and a Class 1 handicap winner last season and was a 1.5 length runner-up to Jonbon in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, which is no disgrace of course. He's currently 5lbs higher than his last win, but this looks weaker than his last race.

Martator is in prime form, winning each of his last five and is 2 from 2 this season after returning from a six month break. A big hike in his mark here, but you can't argue with his attitude. Soul Icon struggled at Grade 1 last time out, but had finished as the runner-up in each of his previous five races, including a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest either side of a 112-day break. Not ideal that he's 4lbs out of the handicap here, but should still run his race.

In card order, it's (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator here for me.

Leg 5 @ 3.08...Highstakesplayer finished 3112 in his last four over hurdles and has four wins and a runner-up finish from seven over fences, including a 2 from 2 record over course and distance. Down in class here but needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Newbury last time out. Frero Banbou ended a run of 17 defeats when winning off a falling mark of 127 at Newcastle in a Class 1 handicap over this trip last time out. His previous win in January 2022 was off today's 134, so he might not be weighted out of this and he drops two classes.

Golden Son won here over 2m4f ten months ago, but has failed to shine in three outings since, finishing 6th of 7 and then falling in his final two runs of last season and he was last home of nine (40 lengths down) at Newbury on his seasonal bow. Has ability and is down in class, but not reliable enough yet after just seven starts. Dreaming Blue, however, is definitely going in the right direction. He has made the frame in 7 of 15 chases, winning four times and comes here on a run reading 1131. He's up against better horses here but did win quite comfortably over 3m1½f last time out.

It's going to be (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue for me from this one.

Leg 6 @ 3.38...Valgrand didn't seem at his best when only 10th of 14 (20 lengths down) on handicap debut at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, but having finished 1112 in his other four runs over hurdles (the last two at Grade 2), I'd not be writing him off just yet. Aucunrisque is 331 in his three Class 3 handicap hurdle outings this season and although he's up 4lbs to a mark of 133 has every chance here, especially as he won a Class 1 handicap at Newbury off 138 last year.

Willmount is very lightly raced, but won both of his bumpers in 2023. He then won on hurdles debut after a 250-day absence in November 2023, but was pulled up in a Grade 1 almost a year ago and subsequently fell next/last time out at Cheltenham a fortnight as he reappeared from 349 days off. You'd expect Nicky Henderson to be working on his hurdling and his bumper form shows he has enough ground speed, but he does need to jump better. Ooh Betty didn't show much when 12th of 13 in a Class 1 handicap last time out, but had finished in the first three home in 10 of her previous 11, so she has every right to go well again back down in class. She won a similar event to this on her seasonal reappearance seven weeks ago which was her fifth win in ten starts and she's not out of this.

I can make a case for all four and at the risk of going against the market, I feel that the likely fav Willmount has most to prove over hurdles, so I'm siding with (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Inappropriate, (3) Lucky Bere & (5) Nardaran

Leg 2: (2) Della Casa Lunga, (5) Royale Margaux & (6) Larchmont Lass

Leg 3: (1) Ballyburn & (2) Sir Gino

Leg 4: (1) Edwardstone, (2) Boothill & (3) Martator

Leg 5: (3) Highstakesplayer, (5) Frero Banbou & (10) Dreaming Blue

Leg 6: (2) Valgrand, (3) Aucunrisque & (6) Ooh Betty

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, everyone!
Chris



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Tix Picks, Monday 25/11/24

Monday's racing comes from Kempton and Ludlow. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton Park...

...and I think we'll follow the money and head for Kempton's good to soft track for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Only two runners appeal to me here and I'd expect this race to be all about (4) Moutarde who showed promise when a runner-up on debut at Galway before not disgracing himself in a Cheltenham Grade 2 nine days ago. He was fourth that day and this represents a huge drop in class.

Next best is probably (8) Our Lil who offered encouragement when beaten by less than two lengths on race debut at Warwick earlier this month and in a weak looking race, a similar effort should be enough to beat most of her rivals here.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...Miami Magic was second in a bumper on debut in May, beaten by just a head at Aintree and then next raced at Fakenham almost four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a 166-day absence to win by 10 lengths on his first crack at hurdling and that run sets the benchmark here. Groovy Blue hasn't been seen since landing a Fonwell bumper in mid-May on his first run for Ben Pauling and despite his absence, it's hard to believe that he won't have been well schooled over hurdles by this yard.

Sole debutant Marengo Bay cost €58,000 as a 3yo and he's a half-brother to 2½m-2¾m winner hurdles winner Finest Evermore, who also won on the Flat over 2m. The Henderson/de Boinville axis is generally strong and this one could go well in a weak looking race. Salt Rock has shown some promise under Rules after being sold for £200k following a win on his sole PTP run, finishing third on hurdles debut just over a year ago and was only beaten by less than six lengths on his return earlier this month.

Thistle Be The One completes my shortlist on his hurdling debut. His two bumper runs saw him win here at Kempton in late-February at Class 3, before going down by just half a length at Ayr as a runner-up eight weeks later at Class 2. Califet En Vol was third that day, a further four lengths back, but he re-appeared here at Kempton a fortnight ago to win over this course and distance by 15 lengths on his hurdles debut.

(1) Miami Magic & (10) Thistle Be The One, supplemented by (6) Marengo Bay here for me.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Gidleigh Park won on bumper debut and was 3 from 3 over hurdles at 2m1f to 2m5f before probably finding a combo of three miles plus heavy ground plus Grade 1 company a bit too much in the Albert Bartlett last time out. he did however, win a Grade 2 at HQ back in January and should go well back down in trip. Iberico Lord landed a pair of Class 1 handicap hurdles (Greatwoon & Betfair) last season, but was pulled up in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and hasn't been seen since. He's technically 6lbs well in on official ratings here too.

Leave Of Absence was progressive in bumpers finishing 113 (wins at C5 then C3 before a Grade 2 3rd of 13 at 2022's Liverpool festival). He won a Class 3 Novice race on hurdles debut in October 2022 at Ascot, but hasn't raced in over two years now. The Four Sixes completes the line-up and whilst he has been a consistent placer (6 times from 10), he doesn't seem to have the quality of the other three, although his form last winter did read 132F2 and was only beaten by a length and a half at Class 2 last time out. He probably beats Leave of Absence, who'll need te run, but I don't think he gets near my picks (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Craven Bay is 112 after being asked to go beyond 3m and was only denied a hat-trick by a nose at Fontwell seventeen days ago. Icare Allen's form (PP056987) this year had been uninspiring until he took advantage of a falling mark to score at Uttoxeter yesterday and it'll be intersting to see if he lines up here.

Shantou Express was a decent second at Warwick earlier this month and although winless for some time, has mainly been plying his trade at a hiher level and should still have the measure of many of these here today. The form says that Warranty comes here on a hat-trick, but both wins were on the Flat, where he has performed much better than over hurdles if truth be told and it's now over two years since a hurdle win, but he is 4lbs lower than that day.

Heaven Smart has won just one of fifteen career starts, but that win did come here at Kempton back in February, albeit in a 3m chase. He was a solid third at Fontwell on his last run and could have been much closer but for a mistake two out when pressed for the lead. He was 12 lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up Craven Bay that day and would hope to get closer if he can avoid any jumping errors, but I'm overlooking him here in favour of (1) Craven Bay and (3) Shantou Express with (2) Icare Allen my backup plan.

Icare Allen was withdrawn as I was finishing up this morning, so I'm now taking (5) Heaven Smart as the backup.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...It's hard to see beyond last year's runner-up in this race Kateira, who was also a Grade 2 runner-up at Aintree in April 2023 and won a Class 1 handicap there back in April of this year. She made a mistake 2 out on his return at the start of the month, but should come on for the run here.

Of the others, I think The Height of Fame is the weakest and I expect a 3-way battle for silver here between Pawapuri, Della Casa Lunga and Porter In The Park. Pawapuri has finished 1162 (inc a win in a Listed race) over the last year, but hasn't raced since mid-May. Della Casa Lunga looks best off at the weights and won back to back hurdles at Ludlow in February. She probably needed the run at Bangor eleven days ago after a 195-day absence, whereas Porter In The Park has been kept busy with nine runs in 2024 already, making the frame in six of her last eight in a run of form reading 31212552.

I'd probably rule out Pawapuri for the lack of a recent run and with Della Casa Lunga being rated 15lbs better than Porter In the Park but running oat the same weight, she'd be my alternate here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...A decent, open-looking but hard to call finale has seven runners who could all technically make the frame!

The Edgar Wallace was last of 14 in the Topham at Aintree in April, but had finished 1122 in his previous four runs, all at this Class 3 level. The ground might count against Will Carver here. he has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 over obstacles, but all of his form is on good ground and it's going to be much slower/softer here.

Doctor Ken, however, is 3 from 3 on good to soft and his chasing career reads 121, all at this level. The fly in this particular ointment is a 616 day absence. Doddiethegreat is the only chase debutant, but has a good hurdling pedigree, having won a Class 2 handicap at Ascot this time last year before going on to be a Class 3 runner-up at Cheltenham in December and then a solid 4th of 21 in the Class 1 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. If transferring that ability to the larger obstacles, he's definitely in the mix for a top trainer/jockey combo.

Bourbali won at this meeting last year and made all to win here again last time out. He's only up 4lbs for that win and if handling the step up in trip, has to be in the mix once more. Thelasthighking was second in this race last year and now runs off a mark 8lbs lower than that 3 length defeat. He has made the frame in 5 of his 9 starts over fences, but has been well beaten in all four starts since this race last year.

And finally, Es Perfecto, who is better than a last of eight runners, 47 lengths adrift LTO would suggest. He's normally there or thereabouts, as a prior run of form reading 24133233 would attest, but he just didn't fire at Sandown back in March. Well rested since, we'll hopefully see the real reliable Es Perfecto, but I do prefer the likes of (5) Bourbali and (4) Doddiethegreat, whilst I'm going to take a chance/value punt on (3) Doctor Ken despite a long absence. He was third at Aintree in October 2021 after 214 days off and then won a Class 3 race there in November 2022 after 220 days off, so there's a possibility here; if only this was Aintree?

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Moutarde & (8) Our Lil

Leg 2: (1) Miami Magic, (10) Thistle Be The One & (6) Marengo Bay

Leg 3: (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4: (1) Craven Bay, (3) Shantou Express & (2) Icare Allen (5) Heaven Smart

Leg 5: (1) Kateira & (3) Della Casa Lunga

Leg 6: (5) Bourbali, (4) Doddiethegreat & (3) Doctor Ken

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/08/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have highlighted just one runner of possible interest...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.15 Catterick
  • 4.05 Musselburgh
  • 5.18 Bellewstown
  • 7.30 Kempton

...and I think I'll have a look at Baraq and the 8.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baraq did make the frame, when 3rd of 14 over a mile at Southwell at the start of the month. He is however, a 4-race maiden and both South Pole and Liam Swagger have yet to get off the mark too, after three and six attempts respectively. The whole 8-runner field has won just 7 of 46 so far, but have made the frame twenty times (43.5%)

Liam Swagger has only raced in a handicap once before and it's the first crack for South Pole, Niigata and featured runner Baraq. South Pole and Niigata both run for the first time since being gelded and both will sport new equipment; South Pole will be tongue-tied and Niigata will be blinkered.

Niigata also steps up a class here, as does Baraq, but New Chelsea and True Wisdom drop down a level, whilst Into battle drops two classes.

The two who have recently been gelded haven't raced for nine and eleven weeks, but the other half dozen have all had an outing in the last four weeks and both Magico and Into Battle have already won here at Kempton.

Those wins will show below on Instant Expert, but with a field only having seven total wins, we'd better also look at the place stats...

Magico and Into Battle seems the best positioned based on the win stats, albeit off a very small sample size of races. New Chelsea is the most experienced at this level and has made the frame in half of his six defeats, but the concern already is that he always seems to find at least or two runners too good for him and I suppose you can say the same about Liam Swagger at the trip.

Our Draw Analyser says there's little to be gained from being drawn in a particular section of the stalls, although runners in stalls 1 and 2 have relatively poor records, which might not be good news for Into Battle and New Chelsea, but I wouldn't rule any horse out based purely on the draw stats over 1m3f here at Kempton...

Pace, however, is a different story, as hold-up horses have found it really difficult to win from behind here...

Thankfully, we don't seem to have any hold-up types in this race, although Magico was slow away three starts ago...

Summary

So we've an inexperienced field and no real pace or draw bias to help us whittle down the contenders, but New Chelsea has made the frame five times from nine and Baraq has done so three times from four. Into Battle and Magico were the initial standouts from Instant Expert and I think I'd want these four rather than the other four runners in the race.

Into Battle drops two classes here and that might just tip the balance slightly his way, but otherwise I don't think there's that much between the four of them. Perhaps the market as of 5.40pm Tuesday will help...

...or maybe not! Sod's Law seems to have prevailed here; there's no E/W route out for me to hedge my bets and I'd probably agree with the bookies that Baraq might be marginally better than New Chelsea and Magico, but I wouldn't invest too much of your time nor money on this one!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/08/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 York
  • 6.10 Sligo
  • 7.00 Worcester
  • 7.25 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

...from which I'm going to take a look at James Tate's Endless Power and the 6.50 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Eleftheria is our only LTO winner and she has two wins and a place from her last four outings. Amphius and Jayyash have both made the first three home in each of their last two runs, although the former is still a maiden after three attempts. Bluelight Bay and Francesi are the only ones without a win in at least seven races (nine and twenty-three to be precise!)

Featured runner and top-weight Endless Power takes a drop in class today, as do Rocking Tree and Quatre Bras, but handicap debutant Amphius and Tiger Beetle are both up a level, whilst Bravo Zulu and Jayyash both run for the first time after recent gelding operations.

I say recent ops, because they both last ran less than eight weeks ago, but only Rocking Tree and Eleftheria have been rested for longer at 61 and 77 days with the others all having had at least one outing in the last 7 (Francesi) to 37 (Amphius) days.

More than half of the field (Amphius, Rocking Tree, Eleftheria, Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras and Jayyash) are still just three years old and they'll get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today.

Amphius is still a maiden, so obviously has no course or distance wins and the other s yet to win at this trip are Rocking Tree, Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras and Tiger Beetle, but Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras have at least already won here at Kempton over 7f, whilst both Eleftheria and Jayyash are former course and distance winners (LTO for the former and four starts ago for the latter) and this info is contained within Instant Expert below...

...which suggests that Francesi won't like the underfoot conditions and that he and Tiger Beetle might well be out of their depths at Class 4. Francesi also has a poor win record over a mile, as does Bluelight Bay and these win stats point to the winner coming from stalls 2, 4, 7, 8, 9 or 11, but I just want to check the place stats to see if any of those with poor win records have just been unlucky...

...but this graphic says that's not really the case although Francesi has made the frame quite a few times at Class 4 and/or over a mile. If I was being harsh, I'd probably that only five of them standout from those place stats...

Previous similar races here at Kempton have tended to favour those drawn in the lower half (stalls 1-6) of the field...

...which is good news for Eleftheria and Quatre Bras from the Instant Expert quintet above, but will also offer encouragement for Rocking Tree, Francesi, Amphius and Bluelight Bay. That said, I think that race positioning/tactics aka pace might well be a major factor here, for when we look back at those races above, there's a definitive pattern that has formed...

...and it's front runners or prominent racers that we're really looking for, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...puts Rocking Tree, Bravo Zulu and Quatre Bras in the spotlight. Endless Power shouldn't be too far off the pace either and Eleftheria is interesting. She had two prominent run followed by two hold-up efforts, but did win here over course and distance last time out, despite being held up from a high draw!

Summary

If we consider recent form, weight allowances, course/distance records, Instant Expert and pace/draw, then I think I like Eleftheria and Jayyash slightly more than the rest in what looks like being a tight/tricky contest to call. I doubt either will trade at 8/1 or higher (no odds showing at 4.30pm Tuesday), so I can't go E/W on them and I'd take the filly Eleftheria as my marginal pick, whilst A/W debutant Azahara Palace might be the E/W punt for small change if prices dictate, of course.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/08/24

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...plus we also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.10 Kempton
  • 5.40 Nottingham
  • 5.50 Roscommon
  • 6.10 Nottingham

And I think we'll take a look at Zero Carbon and the 4.45 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Only Brasil Power managed to win last time out and that was his second win in his last five starts, whilst all bar Revolutionise and Follow Your Heart have won at least one of their last seven.

This pair have lost ten and nine on the bounce respectively, although the former was the only other runner in this field to make the frame last time out. This pair might struggle again here as they're both up in class, as is bottom weight Big R, but top weight Hieronymous is down a grade here, whilst Wallop wears a visor for the first time today.

Aljati hasn't raced for 81 days but all his rivals have had at least one run in the past 46 days with four of them being seen in the last week!

Pjanoo is the only runner without a previous course or distance win. Wallop and Big R have already won here over 6f, whilst Aljari and Society Lion have won over this trip elsewhere. Five of the field (Hieronymus, Zero Carbon, Brasil Power, Revolutionise & Follow Your Heart) are course and distance winners and Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Zero Carbon leading the way, as you'd expect. Revolutionise has struggled to win over this trip, Follow Your Heart looks weak on going/track, whilst Society Lion has yet to win at Class 4 on the A/W and having only made the frame once in those six defeats...

...is likely to struggle again, although Revolutionise's numbers now appear much better. If we then look at past similar races, our draw analyser says that whilst there's not a huge draw bias at play here, those drawn highest have had less success than the others...

...which isn't great news for Hieronymus, Brasil Power, Zero Carbon or Big R, but I'm not sure the draw alone would mean a horse couldn't win here if the correct tactics were employed and the best tactics here would be to hit the front as soon as you could and then stay there. Easier said than done of course, but here's how those 300+ races have panned out...

...which looks to be more conclusive than the draw stats and would indicate that Zero Carbon might well be in the box seat, if his last three runs are anything to go by...

Summary

I initially thought that LTO C&D winner Brasil Power would be the one to beat here, but he doesn't seem well suited by either pace nor draw. he's also up 5lbs here and that might well make him susceptible to Zero Carbon. He's the qualifier from the shortlist and caught the eye on Instant Expert. He's got the ideal pace profile to win this to add to his three previous course and distance wins.

Brasil Power looked a bit shot at 9/4 as of 5pm Monday, meaning that Zero Carbon's 7/1 ticket was very appealing and borderline for an E/W option.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/08/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.50 Beverley
  • 6.05 Ffos Las
  • 6.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only highlighted one runner for Wednesday and even that one isn't going to run...

...so I'll refer back to our free races above, the highest rated of which is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of the dozen runners here managed to win last time out, but the fast-finisher Atlantic Gamble and bottom weight Ring of Light both made the frame in third place. Atlantic Gamble had actually won his previous four races on the bounce and of his rivals, only Monte Linas, Ernies Valentine, Dutch Kingdom and Achillea have won any of their last five races.

Sennockian, Get the Music On and Ring Of Light all won seven races ago and the latter also scored six races ago, but Al Rufaa, City of York, Ivasecret and Dream Pirate are on losing runs of 9, 7, 8 and 10 races respectively.

The hopes that Dream Pirate and Ivasecret might get back to winning ways aren't helped by the fact that they're up one and two classes respectively here, whilst LTO placers Atlantic Gamble and Ring of Light also step up a level, but Achillea is down a class.

Ivesecret wears a visor for the first time today and it will be Ring Of Light's first outing since recent wind operation, which must have been fairly recent as he, like nine of his eleven opponents, has raced inside the last five weeks. Ernie's Valentine has had just over seven weeks off, which shouldn't be too much of an issue, but it's almost ten months since we last saw Monte Linas finish seventh of eleven runners at Wolverhampton.

Only Al Rufaa and Get The Music On have yet to win over today's trip, but both have won here at Kempton over 7f in the past, whilst the other half dozen previous track winners (Ernie's Valentine, City of York, Dutch Kingdom, Atlantic Gamble, Ivasecret and Ring Of Light) have all won over course and distance, meaning that Instant Expert has a fair smattering of green, particularly on the lower half of the card...

...where Dream Pirate looks most vulnerable, especially over the trip. Ring of Light is interesting here, receiving weight all round and posting some good numbers, but runs off a mark 6lbs lower than his last win, which came over course and distance, albeit back in November 2022 after which he took 17 months off!

The place stats from those races above confirms that Dream pirate is likely to struggle and also adds Ernie's Valentine to my 'also-ran' pile...

...but aside from that pair, I'm not ruling any of these out of contention for making the frame just yet. Perhaps the draw might help do that, as runners in stalls 1-7 seem to have had the upper hand in previous similar contests...

..that have tended to go the way of the order in which the horses run with front-runners faring best and hold-up horses faring worst...

...thereby generating this pace/draw heat map.

If we then look back at this field's most recent outings, we can reproduce those heat maps as follows...

...suggesting that Dutch Kingdom has the best pace/draw make-up for this race.

Summary

Dutch Kingdom was the one who seemed best suited by the draw, previous pace data and ultimately the pace/draw combo. He featured well on Instant Expert, aside from not winning too often at Class 4, but he did win his last A/W outing. Whether he's good enough to win here in unclear, but I'd definitely be interested in him if a suitable price could be gained for an E/W option.

If he's not going to win, then maybe the in-form Atlantic Gamble and his useful 7lbs weight for age allowance is the one to beat. He is reunited with the 5lb claimer who rode him to victory here over course and distance on his last A/W run two starts ago and the pair are two from three together.

The rest of the field seem pretty much of a muchness and the one that I might be tempted to take a chance with might be bottom weight Ring of Light on his return from wind surgery. He was third behind Dutch Kingdom last time out, five weeks ago but is substantially better off at the weights today, so could go well here.

A quick look at the market at 5pm suggests that both Dutch Kingdom and Ring of Light could be decent E/W propositions, especially if your bookie is paying four places...



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/07/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with one of obviously more interest than the other. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Nottingham
  • 4.00 Beverley
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 7.30 Kempton

And Sod's Law dictates that's the less interesting runner from The Shortlist that runs in one of our 'free' races, but hat race is still the most appealing of the four listed, so let's focus on Drama and his eight opponents in the 7.30 Kempton, a Class 4, A/W handicap for three year old runners over a straight 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win last time out, but featured runner Drama was a runner-up as was Tennessee Gold, whilst Gutsy Girl was third for the second race in a row since reappearing from a nine-month break. Rosa Applause was fourth here over course and distance denying her a hat-trick and True Promise has won two of his four career starts.

Secret Bid is two from five, Drama won two starts ago, Tennessee Gold was a winner three races back and both Media Shooter and Boann are two from seven, leaving just Eulace Peacock without a 'recent' win or win of any kind, as he's 0 from 7 career starts.

Eulace Peacock has moved yards since his last defeat 14 weeks ago and now debuts for Martin Dunne, making just a second handicap appearance, as do Rosa Applause and Gutsy Girl. Eulace Peacock's cause won't be helped by a step up in class, though as both he and Tennessee Gold move up from Class 5, whilst True promise and Media Shooter drop one and two classes respectively.

We know that Eulace Peacock hasn't raced for 14 weeks, but all of his rivals have raced in the last 15 (Boann) to 31 (Media Shooter) days, which might put this out of form runner at yet another disadvantage.

As a seven-race maiden, he clearly has no course or distance wins to his name, but of his eight rivals, only Secret Bid has yet to win over today's trip, whilst Drama, Media Shooter, Boann and Tennessee Gold have all prevailed over course and distance...

Instant Expert backs up Drama's position on The Shortlist, but also shows the most experienced runner in the field (13 starts), Media Shooter, in a really good light too...

Obviously Eulace Peacock has no winning form and Gutsy Girl makes an A/W debut after finishes of 4133 on the Flat, whilst True Promise's 2 from 2 A/W record is from the tapeta at Newcastle. Tennessee Gold might well be receiving weight from most of these, but he's now 11lbs higher than his last win (C&D three starts ago) and 3lbs higher than two subsequent defeats, so he might be in the assessor's grip.

The place stats tell a similar story to the win stats and are fairly self-explanatory...

Let's now look at the draw, because there really shouldn't be a massive bias over a straight six furlongs on an artificial surface, but here's the data from the last couple of years...

And whilst there does seem a gradual decline in success the higher a horse is drawn, I wouldn't personally says that there's a huge advantage in getting a low draw. It is certainly useful and the likes of Tennessee Gold, Gutsy Girl and Secret Bid will be pleased, but I suspect that (as in most sprints) pace will be the key to the race and here we're looking (as in most sprints) for prominent/front runners...

...which based on the field's recent exploits, could be good news for Rosa Applause, but not so great for Tennessee Gold

Summary

It's a pretty open contest here and I agree with the market as of 5.15pm Monday, in that any one of at least five runners could win this...

...but I think that pace wins the race and that the in-form front runner Rosa Applause is the one for me at 9/2. She's in great nick, her yard are firing at the moment and they have a good record at this venue. Her jockey rides well here and he's also in good form, so it's Rosa Applause for me. Yes, she was just over 1.25 lengths behind Drama last time out, but she's 5lbs better off here and that swings it.

I'd expect good runs from the likes of Drama and Media Shooter based on their past records under similar circumstances, but Secret Bid might just be worth an E/W bet at 12/1 as he drops to 6f for the first time. He likes to be up with the pace and having weakened in the final furlong on his last two efforts over 7f, the drop to 6 might just suit.



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Racing Insights, Thursday 04/07/24

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 4.25 Bellewstown
  • 5.10 Tipperary
  • 5.40 Tipperary
  • 5.50 Kempton
  • 6.45 Newbury

None of those make much appeal to me if truth be told, so I'm going off-piste with a look at the highest-rated handicap of the day in the UK, the 7.35 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse between Cracksking and The Goat at fairly short prices, leaving the way open for an E/W bet or two, but let's check...

Only Cracksking won last time out and this son of Frankel is 2 from 4 (3211) on the All-Weather. He beat the re-opposing The Goat by a neck in that race (here over course and distance), whilst Simply Sondheim and Ludos Landing were also runners-up on their last outings.

Way of Life has made the frame in 11 of his last 14, but has failed to win any of his last 22 races, whilst Global Heat, There's The Door and Naval Commander are on losing streaks of 14, 7 and 8 races respectively.

There's The Door does have the benefit of a drop in class here, though, as do Simply Sondheim and Graignes, but the bottom four in the weights, Way of Life, Naval Commander, Met Office and Ludos Landing all step up in class, so it's hard to envisage either of Way of Life or Naval Commander getting back to winning ways here.

Gooloogong runs in a handicap for just the second time (last of eight over course and distance behind Cracksking & The Goat as above LTO four weeks ago), whilst bothNaval Commander and Simply Sondheim make yard debuts on their return from lengthy layoffs of 364 days and 292 days respectively. Both Met Office (232d) and Graignes (241d) might also be in need of the run, but the other seven runners here have raced in the last 8-40 days.

All bar There's The Door have had at least one run here at Kempton, but only Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, Graignes and Naval Commander have won here with all bar Naval Commander and Ludos Landing having tackled today's trip. Cracksking, The Goat, Way of Life and Met Office have all won over 1m4f, but only Cracksking has won at track and trip, when triumphant here four weeks ago.

Based on this preview, it's no surprise that Cracksking is the standout in terms of wins on our free daily feature Instant Expert...

...with Simply Sondheim and Graignes also having gone well, but they are both returning from long breaks. From a place perspective, my shortlist would have to be Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life and these runners occupy stalls 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias to take advantage of, that it benefits those drawn lowest...

...and that does appear to be the case, albeit marginally. I suspect the pace might well tell us a bit more about who might challenge here. I've got it in my head that even though the trip is a mile and a half that those setting the pace or keeping up with it have fared the best, but as ever, its always best to check the data...

Well, I'm sort of right, I suppose. the advantage seems more pronounced from a place perspective, of course, but one this is apparent : you don't want to dwell and be left behind here. So, I suppose that if one or more of my low-drawn Instant Expert shortlist are runners who like to get on with things, we might have ourselves a live E/W chance at worst, so let's look at their last few races...

...with four of my shortlisted quintet filling the first five berths on the pace chart, making the resultant pace/draw heat map look like this...

Summary

Based on our free feature of the day, Instant Expert and the pace/draw data, I'm inclined to stick with Simply Sondheim, Cracksking, The Goat, Graignes and Way of Life as the five runners to choose from and with Simply Sondheim and Graignes likely to need a run after a lengthy lay-off, I'm left with the two that I though would battle it out for the win, Cracksking and The Goat plus perennial placer but rare winner Way of Life and I'll take them in that order.

The one I did like earlier but doesn't seem to tick any boxes is bottom weight Ludo's Landing. He's in great form, receives weight all round and could well spring a surprise. The Wednesday 5.30pm market looked like this...

...so there could be an E/W bet or two in the offing, if you're that way inclined.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/05/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.40 Warwick
  • 8.10 Southwell
  • 8.20 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two possible runners of interest...

...and it's the latter that I'm going to look at today.

Liseo runs in the 8.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (it was 7 but Believe In Stars has been withdrawn), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

DAVIDEO drops in class here for his first run in 222 days, during which time he has been gelded. His last win was four starts and ten months ago over today's trip at Newmarket and he now runs on the A/W for just the second time, having been a four-length runner-up here at Kempton over a mile back in November 2022.

CANNON ROCK also drops in class after a disappointing 10th of 11 (22 lengths down) over 1m6f at Newmarket earlier this month, but did win over today's trip on the A/W at Southwell in March, three starts ago, although he was only 6th of 14 here over 1m3f in April.

LISEO is the only course winner in the race, having won here over 1m3f at the start of April on his last A/W outing. He's far better on the A/W than the Flat, having won two of five in 2024 so far. Up in class today, but did get to within 1.25 lengths of the winner in a Class 2 here over 1m3f in November.

ARTISAN DANCER is anther better suited to the A/W (5 wins and 10 further places from 21) than the Flat (unplaced in 7) and was a winner at Wolverhampton five starts ago in early February. He's a consistent placer, so I suspect he'll be in the mix once again.

APPIER is four from nine on the A/W, but it's almost a year since his last win (at Lingfield six starts ago). He raced at Ascot 11 days ago after a six-month break and looked like he needed the run in an eight-length defeat.

IMPHAL makes a yard debut for Paddy Butler today and makes a first non-NH appearance since early July 2019 and a first A/W outing since finishing fourth or eight here at Kempton over two miles way back in August 2018. I'm not sure what the plan is here for this 10 yr old, but he's probably best left watched today.

Instant Expert...

...says Liseo on standard to slow and Kempton (one and the same, of course), whilst Appier's A/W record over the trip is excellent. The place stats...

...say pretty much the same thing, but also show Artisan Dancer as another possible for the frame.

There's rarely a draw bias on the A/W in small fields over trips of this length and this is no exception either...

...I suppose stalls 4 & 5 have placed more often, but there's not a great deal to be gleaned from those numbers above. It's a slightly different story when it comes to assessing pace, though, as those willing to set the tempo of the races have seemed to shade it...

...which would be really helpful if we had a runner keen to take it on. Sadly, this looks like being a falsely run race with none of the six seeming keen to lead the way if their more recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

Unusually for an A/W contest, we've little/no help from either draw or pace, but we do have some useful data on Instant Expert, we know who is and who isn't in form and we have the info from the TS report.

So based on what we do have, it's the sole course winner, in-form Liseo from the TS report. Horse and yard do well here and Hills' (only book open at 3.15pm Tuesday) 9/2 looks more than fair.

The 3/1 Artisan Dancer is probably my next best, but if you wanted an outsider who could go better than the odds might suggest, then the 15/2 about Appier is interesting.



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Racing Insights, Monday 06/05/2024

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 2.35 Windsor
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 4.45 Curragh

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in either of the two UK races there, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 4.05 Kempton, which is the highest-rated UK race that I'd consider covering! It's an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over a right-handed three miles on good ground...

Neon Moon won last time out, as did top-weight Quick Draw who has four wins and a place from his last seven outings. Karl Philippe and Unanswered Prayers were both placed third on their latest runs, but both are winless in seven (or more) races, as is Killer Kane.

Half of the field ran at this Class 3 level last time out, but Galahad Quest (now running for the first-time since a wind op) and Magna Sam both drop from Class 2, whilst Our Jet ran at Grade 2 and Killer Kane ran in a Class 1 handicap.

Most of these have raced in the last two to six weeks or so, but Quick Draw and Magna Sam have both been rested for three months, but that shouldn't pose any issues here.

Quick Draw (2m4½f chase) and Our Jet (2m5f chase) are both former Kempton winners, whilst Killer Kane is two from three over fences at 3m½f here. Quick Draw has also won over a similar trip elsewhere before, as have Neon Moon and Magna Sam. Karl Philippe, Galahad Quest and Unanswered Prayers have yet to score over track or trip...

...with recent relevant form suggesting our winner might well come from Quick Draw, Karl Phillipe, Our Jet and/or Galahad Quest, whilst Neon Moon has made the frame in half of his eight efforts over this trip...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that horses prepared to set the tempo of the race from the front did best of all in similar past races...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could lead you to thinking that would suit Unanswered Prayers, Our Jet, Quick Draw, Galahad Quest and Karl Philippe...

Summary

The horse ticking most boxes for me from the above data is Quick Draw, he brings the best form to the table, his trainer and jockey are both in good nick and both have good records here at Kempton. The horse has won here before and has scored at this trip. He's 3 from 4 in this grade and does like to lead when necessary. Sadly, he's the 5/2 favourite with bet365 (at 6.40pm Sunday), but that's probably about the right price.

Elsewhere I can make cases for (alphabetically) Galahad Quest, Karl Philippe, Neon Moon and Our Jet and I'd probably suggest that Our Jet and Karl Philippe would be the better pair to chase the pick home and with Our Jet currently available at 11/1, he might be a nice E/W option.

 

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/05/24

Wow! How is it May already? We kick the new month off with Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report, which is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Pontefract
  • 4.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Punchestown
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.15 Brighton

Yet for all those options above, none of the UK races are any better than Class 4! We've three races with more than one way in, so we'll take one of those, the 7.30 Kempton as our featured race. Recent course specialists Tate & Crisford(s) send Swift Victory and Labalaba respectively to take each other and and half a dozen more runners on in a Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

The top two in the weights, Swift Victory and Surveyor, along with Jayyaah were winners last time out and all three had been runners-up in their penultimate outing, so all three are clearly going well, as is Sennockian, whose runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a month ago ended his 100% (3 from 3) record on the A/W and with Mr Baloo having won three of his last five, we could be in a for a decent scrap here, although seven-race maiden Ebt's Guard might feel the pressure.

All three handicap debutants (Surveyor, Jayyash and Screaming Eagle) are up in class today, whilst Labalaba will make a second handicap appearance whilst wearing a first-time tongue-tie & hood on what will be his first run since being gelded during a 223-day lay-off.

That break is the longest of all eight runners and whilst Swift Victory and Ebts Guard have been rested for 163 and 189 days respectively, the majority of the field have raced in the past month.

As for relevant past form, we have Instant Expert below, of course and we've two former course and distance winners in the shape of Swift Victory and Jayyash, whilst Mr Baloo won here over 7f three weeks ago. Surveyor won over a mile at Lingfield last time out and Sennckian has won at Newcastle, Lingfield and Wolverhampton over 1m/1m½f this year already. The bottom three on the card, Labalaba, Screaming Eagle and Ebt's Guard have yet to win at either track or trip...

There's not a lot of data to work with, especially on the A/W, where Sennockian and Mr Baloo seem better suited in this grade than they have been on turf. Labalaba makes an A/W debut here and the bottom two on the card are both 0 from 2 on the A/W, but both have made the frame on both starts...

Mind you, all those with any A/W experience have decent place records, so that last graphic isn't overly helpful and sadly that's also the case when we try to work out which stall(s) would be the best to run from, as over the last 200 or so similar races, there's very little advantage to be gained from the draw when it comes to winning races, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian, Swift Victory, Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame...

If we then look at which tactics have worked best over those races, we see that the further forward a horse raced, the better its chances were of making the frame...

...but that prominent runners won slightly more often than leaders, but there's not much in it, if truth be told, probably just a couple of wins either side. What we do know is that leader/prominent runners have a win strike rate of 16.2% (mid-div/hold-up are at 9.1%) and a place strike rate of 40.4% (mid-div/hold-up are at 28.4%) and that they've won 57.9% of the races and provided 52.2% of the placers, despite only making up 43.5% of the total number of runners, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could be good news for Labalaba, Surveyor and Sennockian in particular.

Summary

You could very easily make a case for most of these here and whilst Labalaba could have every chance, the lay-off and an A/W debut is a worry. In fact, I think I want to focus on those with a recent run, so that takes Swifts Victory and Ebt's Guard out of the equation too. Screaming Eagle is 0 from 3 so far and has been beaten twice here at Kempton, including as a short-priced favourite last time out. Those two Kempton races haven't generated winners and they look weak in retrospect, so the Eagle won't land here for me.

This leaves me with four (Surveyor, Sennockian, Mr Baloo and Jayyash) to consider and all have run well recently with Sennockian probably the form pick ahead of Mr Baloo. Jayyash is the only course and distance winner and Mr Baloo has yet to win over the trip, although he has won here. We didn't get much from the draw stats, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian & Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame, whilst the pace data pointed us towards Surveyor and Sennockian.

There's probably very little to choose between the four of them, but if pushed, I think I'd have them as Surveyor / Jayyash / Mr Baloo / Sennockian and with the 4.55pm market looking as follows...

I think I'd have a small go at Surveyor with E/W plays on both Mr Baloo and Sennockian.

 



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Racing Insights, Monday 22/04/24

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.22 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Windsor
  • 5.20 Windsor
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Tramore
  • 7.30 Kempton

...from which the highest rated UK race is the 6.00 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m2f on good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but General Medrano was third, Fringill Dike's last four runs have finished 111F, Issar D'Airy's last five are 13115, Alto Alto's last three read 112 and bottom weight Duhallow Tommy has finished 31112 in his last five, so quite a few have been in decent nick. Only Frere D'Armes is on a winless run of more than six races, having lost eight on the bounce. In his defence, they were all Class 1 and 2 races and he did win his last start at this level and is now only 2lbs higher than that win.

So, for me, the 'form' runners are General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade.

As above, Frere D'Armes now drops a class to run here, as do three others in the top six in the weights, Thelasthighking, Prince Escalus and Le Ligieren (trained by the Tizzards who won this race in both '22 and '23), whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are both up from Class 4 for this one, if they do turn out at all.

I suggest that Whodini and Charlie's Glance might not run, because they both ran on Saturday at Bangor, but in different races. The rest of their rivals have had at least three weeks rest with three of them, Prince Escalus, Another Crick and Fringill Dike returning from breaks of longer than seven weeks; 128, 163 and 186 days respectively to be precise! Prince Escalus' connections will hope that wind surgery during his layoff will help here along with a first-time tongue-tie.

We've not much in the way of previous course and/or distance form, but General Medrano. Le Ligieren and Duhallow Tommy have all won at a similar trip to this one, whilst Le Ligieren (2m5f chase) and Another Crick (2m4½f chase) are both former track winners with the class dropping Frere D'Armes our sole course and distance winner, albeit way back in November 2022!

As for other relevant past form, Instant Expert has the numbers as always...

...where Le Ligerien and Another Crick seem to have struggled to win races at this level. The former should like the going, though whilst Prince Escalus' good ground record isn't the best after quite a few attempts, but he is now rated 4lbs below his last win unlike Issar D'Airy and Thelasthighking who now run off marks 8lbs and 9lbs higher than their last win. Frere D'Armes looks dangerous albeit off a small sample size of races.

Irrespective of their ability to win the race, the place data from those races above should show us who might run a decent (if not ultimately successful) race...

...where Another Crick looks one of the least likely to get involved. Thelasthighking is interesting at this class of race with 4 places from 4 to go with a 2 from 2 track place record, but he's not my idea of a winner with that extra 9lbs to burden.

Monday's free Geegeez Gold feature is, of course, PACE and our unique pace analyser tells us that in similar past contests, leaders have accounted for 12.9% (32/248) of the runners, but have managed to win 31.8% (7/22) of the races and provide 20.6% (14/68) of the placers...

...so if possible, I want us to be on a horse that likes to lead or be up with the pace and we can make a reasoned assumption (guess?) as to who might lead, by looking at how the field have run in their last few races by allocating a score 4 to those that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for a mid-division positioning and 1 for those who were held-up as follows...

Fringill Dike is a confirmed front-runner and Le Ligierien also likes to be kept handy, whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are definite hold-up types.

Summary

The horses that I considered to be in the best form were General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade. All of these should be involved in the final mix and Frere D'Armes was one of few to catch the eye on Instant Expert along with Thelasthighking, but of the 'form' horses, Fringill Dike looks best suited from a pace perspective, so Fringill Dike is my tentative pick here at 6/1 based on this show at 6.15pm on Sunday...

Frere D'Armes and Duhallow Tommy should both run decent races, but if I was to think about an E/W bet, then Thelasthighking might well fit the bill at 10's. I was thinking about General Medrano at a similar price, but I'm worried that the ground/race might end up being a bit too quick for him.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 06/04/24

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and sadly they have only generated one runner for me to check out under 1-year form...

...but thankfully as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 2.25 Kelso
  • 2.40 Kempton
  • 4.45 Kelso
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

...and although it has more runners than I'm normally comfortable with, the best of those four races above looks like the 2.40 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

Intinso and Valsad both won last time out and Cannon Rock comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Old Peculier was a runner-up on his UK debut follwing three straight wins at Dundalk and Old Harrovian has won two of his last three, having been denied a hat-trick when switched to turf for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury last May.

Which, of course, means that he now makes a comeback after 322 days off the track, so he might be a little rusty here, as might Captain Wierzba after his own 337-day break, during which he was gelded. Chillingham, Laafi, Londoner and Killybegs Warrior are also without a run in 2024, having been rested for 135, 147, 169 and 175 days respectively.

Most of these did race at Class 2 last time out, but Valsad and the fast-finisher Youthful King step up from Class 3 and Cannon Rock is up two classes here, but a stated above, Old Harrovian last ran at Group 3 and now wears a tongue-tie for the first time as he drops to down in class to become one of three handicap debutants (Captain Wierzba and Cannon Rock are the others), whilst Duc de Kent's second UK appearance will be his second handicap effort after a winter in Bahrain where he failed to make the frame in four attempts.

Londoner makes a yard debut for Jim Goldie and has been gelded since leaving Aidan O'Brien, for whom he was a runner-up on his last outing. Cemhaan is the only previous course winner (over 1m4f) of the four (Killybegs Warrior, Youthful King & Dream Harder being the others), but three of the field (Youthful King, Dream Harder & Old Peculier) have won over a similar trip.

The field's 2-year form under today's conditions looks like this...

...which is a little bit sketchy to say the least, although Cemhaan and Intinso tick some boxes. I do suspect that in a 14-runner field where the bookies will pay 4 or even 5 places, that we might be better off seeing if we can find one to make the frame before we consider a winner, so here are the place stats from those races above...

...and whilst the field is generally quite inexperienced under these conditions, there are still positives to take from the data, but I think I'd want to eliminate Killybegs Warrior, Duc de Kent, Londoner, Captain Wierzba, Dream Harder and Laafi at this point, which should make the picture a little clearer for me and leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 13 over a course and distance that despite not having a huge draw bias...

...has seemed to favour those drawn in stalls 1 to 8 in terms of the PRB3 scores, which mightn't be great news for Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from the eight runners I'm still looking at, although I suspect that in a big field like this race positioning and tactics aka 'pace' will have a huge bearing on the result. If we therefore look back at this 100+ races above that I used for the draw analysis, there's a clear definition of what works best here...

...and if we then look at this field's last few runs...

...the ones that interest me from a pace profile would be the first six on that list plus Chillingham and Old Harrovian, as I'm looking for a 4-race pace average of 3.00 or higher or three scores of 3+ from four runs.

Summary

I used Instant Expert to whittle the field from fourteen to eight runners, who in draw order were Intinso, Cannon Rock, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan, Chillingham, Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from which Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier seemed disadvantaged by the draw, whilst the pace make-up of the race doesn't seem to suit Cannon Rock, Youthful King and Old Peculier.

If I remove those that seem unsuited by pace and/or draw, I'm left with four runners who the stats suggest have a good chance of making the frame here : Intinso, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan and Chillingham and to be perfectly honest, I'd be happy to back all of them to at least get placed. I think Intinso and Old Harrovian are much better than the other two and they're actually my 1-2 here.

Sadly, the 5.30pm market agrees with on those two, albeit they have them the other way around...

...so we've not managed to unearth something nobody else has spotted, I'm afraid, but Chillingham and Cemhaan are both interesting at 8's and 16's respectively, particularly the latter at that price, especially if you can get five places from your bookie.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/04/24

Hope you all had a great Easter and after the break Insights now return with a look at Wednesday's racing where the free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 5.00 Catterick
  • 5.25 Kempton

...whilst the TS report has the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

I tend to leave the Flat alone in the first few weeks of the season, so the Catterick race is a no-no for me, as is the 'free' Kempton race : Class 5 maidens don't do much for me, but from TS, Richard Hughes' Zero Carbon runs in a decent-looking contest for the 7.00 Kempton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Kiwano won last time out, Revolutionise was a runner-up and Hodler was third in a big field, but the other half dozen all failed to place. Toimy Son is 0 from 5 in the Uk, but did win a Listed race at Longchamp eight starts and twenty-three months ago. Hickory and Hodler are both winless in seven with all their rivals winning at least once in their last six.

Hodler's chances of breaking that losing run might not be helped by stepping up a class as does bottom weight King Cabo, but better news for Hickory, who drops down one level, as do Caragio and Kiwano, who makes a debut for George Baker today.

Thre of the field (Follow Your Heart, the fast-finisher Revolutionise and King Cabo) have been seen in the last 18-27 days and Kiwano's LTO win was 47 days ago, but the remainder of the field have been off the track for 135 days or more, with Toimy Son away the longest at nearly nine months, during which time he was gelded.

Kiwano and Hodler are the only two yet to win over this course and distance, but both have scored at the trip and in fairness, Hodler's run here in March 2022 is the only time either have been here and their lack of course wins is shown on Instant Expert, of course...

...where several runners look like they'll be at ease with these conditions, but Follow Your Heart has struggled to win on the going, here at Kempton and over the trip, whilst Revolutionise has even worse figures at class and trip and Hickory is still 9lbs higher than his last win, despite losing each of his last seven starts.

Although Follow Your Heart has plenty of defeats above, he's actually pretty consistent at making the frame, according to the place stats...

...where he looks very well placed along with Kiwano, Zero Carbon and King Cabo amongst others. Bottom weight King Cabo has been drawn lowest of all here with Revolutionise out in stall nine and it would appear that a high draw isn't preferable...

...with the PRB3 scores dropping off from stall 4 and upwards, although stall 5 still has a rating of o.50...

The pace stats from those races seem quite heavily stacked towards those willing to set the tempo...

...with hold-up horses tending to struggle, which could make life difficult for the likes of Toimy Son, Follow Your Heart and Hodler, based on their most recent efforts...

...and with the pace/draw heat map from those races above looking like this with our runners overlaid...

...the likes of Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo become of interest.

Summary

Most of these have a relatively recent win, but none are in great form, although Kiwano did win last time out and he along with Follow Your Heart, Zero Carbon and King Cabo were the ones who looked best suited to make the frame from Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map also highlighted Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo, so I think this might well point to Kiwano as my 'most likely' here with honourable mentions to both Zero Carbon and King Cabo.

The 5.30pm market had Zero Carbon at 11/2, Kiwano at 8/1 and King Cabo at 16/1, so there's a distinct possibility that I've misread the data, but I'd be looking as small E/W plays on Kiwano and King Cabo here.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 27/03/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wincanton
  • 3.18 Wexford
  • 3.40 Hereford
  • 5.o5 Wincanton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1-year course form...

...with the best on paper of all those races looking like the last where Mount Athos will attempt to retain the race he won last year, the 7.00 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's another small field that looks really competitive and my early thoughts were that all bar possibly Soar Above could have a chance of winning this.

MOUNT ATHOS is three from here over course and distance and won this race last year, but is now rated some 9lbs higher. He was a course and distance winner two starts ago of 4lbs lower than today but was a disappointing 4/5 fav at Wolverhampton last time out off today's mark when only 5th of 8, beaten by 7 lengths. Could very easily bounce back on his return to Kempton.

ROHAAN has also won over course and distance, albeit way back in December 2020 and was only beaten by just over a length last time out at Lingfield. He has been eased a pouind here, which should help a horse deemed good enough to run in last season's Gr 1 Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot.

MOSTABSHIR makes just a second appearance in a handicap some 144 days after his last run when 5th of 9 at Chelmsford on handicap debut, going down by over four lengths. He's down a furlong and down 2lbs in the ratings too, which should make him a little more competitive. He won on his only previous visit to Kempton, landing a Class 4 Novice event over a mile on his debut in November 2022.

MUMS TIPPLE drops in class today and is noted as a fast finisher, but recent form hasn't been great, losing eight on the bounce and was last home of six in a Listed race at Wolverhampton earlier this month. He now seeks an upturn in form, more than a year after his last win. has won a couple over 7f, but his better form has been over 6f.

ARABIAN STORM only raced four times before today, twice each at Newcastle and Newmarket and was only beaten by ¾-length behind Shouldvebeenaring in a Listed race at HQ last time out. He has a win (7f at Newcastle) and two places from those four starts and now drops in class for his handicap debut off what might be a lenient mark of 95, seeing as Shouldvebeenaring was rated 113 earlier this month. The fly in the ointment here is that he hasn't raced for near enough eleven months and might possibly need the run.

SOAR ABOVE has won three times over course and distance, but unlike Mount Athos, it has taken him 22 attempts to attain that feat and he was was runner-up here over track/trip last time out, but that was at Class 4 off a mark of 82 with a 7lb claimer on board. The claimer has gone, he runs off 82 again and is up two classes. Add in the fact that he is on a run of sixteen defeats and you can see why I think he might struggle.

That recent poor run of form is starkly highlighted by Instant Expert, which suggests the top three in the weights (and the three drawn lowest) should be the ones to focus on...

...although Soar Above has had the knack of running well enough to make the frame without winning...

...but his Class 2 record remains poor with most of his placed efforts coming at Class 4. Instant Expert highlighted the three drawn lowest and the draw stats for similar past races would appear to favour those in stalls 1-4...

...which would also be good news for Arabian Storm on his comeback run. His fitness is sure to be tested here as he'll face opposition for an early lead from last year's winner Mount Athos who does like to make all where possible, whilst Rohaan looks the polar opposite...

...and this hold-up approach could well be Rohaan's undoing if we then look at how those 90 previous Kempton races have panned out...

Summary

None of the field won last time out, but Mount Athos has been a standing dish over course and distance. He was the pick of Instant Expert along with Rohaan and Mostabshir and this trio look to have the best of the draw along with Arabian Storm.

Mount Athos and Arabian Storm have the best pace profiles here with Mostabshir there or thereabouts too, but it's last year's winner, Mount Athos who ticks most boxes today and would be my pick. Rohaan might get left behind if there's plenty of early pace, but both Mostabshir and Arabian Storm are coming off lengthy breaks. I think the challenge to Mount Athos comes from this trio and if pushed to suggest one, I'd hope that the 144 day absence isn't enough to upset Mostabshir.

All of which appears to be backed up by the 4.30pm call from Hills...



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