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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 17th February

ASCOT – FEBRUARY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £76.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 5 (Dame De Compagne)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Ms Parfois), 1 (Black Corton) & 3 (Mount News)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Tenor Nivernais), 1 (Gold Present) & 3 (Royal Encore)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (Kildisart), 7 (Le Patriote) & 5 (Dieg Man)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Coney Island) & 5 (Top Notch)

Leg 6 (4.10): 7 (Ballyheigue Bay), 11 (Laugharne) & 2 (Templeross)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests between them. Paul Nicholls held two options for CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK today and it’s interesting to note that the other race was an event at Wincanton which Paul has won for each of the last five years, now leaving the trainer without a runner in that contest.  Such a move is clear indication that Paul was ready to throw his five-year-old Black Sam Bellamy gelding into this tougher assignment following two (soft and heavy ground) victories at Wincanton thus far.  Six-year-old Count Meribel is not easily overlooked, though the Twiston-Davies raider has to overcome a slightly disappointing effort the last day, albeit in decent company.  Accordingly, DAME DE COMPAGNE (receives ten pounds from Captain Cattistock) is offered up as the main threat to the marginal selection in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Count Meribel (good to soft)

 

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 19 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event and with only a 33/1 chance in opposition to three vintage representatives, the trend looks set to be extended.  This is going to be a big day for Ruth Jefferson, with two highly regarded inmates strutting their stuff down south following Ruth‘s first winner at Kelso on Thursday.  MOUNT NEWS is first up on behalf of the stable and whilst possessing plenty of undoubted ability, Ruth’s Presenting gelding will need to be a little sharper with his fencing to trouble to front two in the market I fancy.  That said, I will add MOUNT NEWS into my Placepot permutation alongside MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON who are listed in order of preference, mainly because of the seven pound concession from one to t’other.  There is also the fact that Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong (recent ratio of 9/21) at present, notwithstanding the fact that Ms Parfois was oh so impressive in each of her victories at Cheltenham, Newbury at Warwick of late.  In truth, I am also influenced by the 2/1 quote for MS PARFOIS over and above even money about Black Corton.

Favourite factor: The last 19 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2.  10 favourites secured Placepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

 

2.25: Anyone who witnessed the thirty length victory of TENOR NIVERNAIS in this event on soft ground last year cannot help but be attracted to the 7/1 odds (generally on offer) about the Venetia Williams raider. Placepot inclusion is taken as read accordingly, whilst 14/1 about the other Anthony Honeyball raider (REGAL ENCORE) on the card also catches the eye. Anthony has already saddled a winner here at Ascot this season with his level stake profit at the track standing at 13 points.  That said, I fully respect the chance of GOLD PRESENT who could yet be anything in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gold Present (good to soft)

2/4—Tenor Niovernais (2 x soft)

1/4—Royal Encore (good to soft)

1/3—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

 

3.00: Ten of the last twelve winners (including nine of the last ten gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals. Taking the facts and stats into account, I’m offering KILDISART, LE PATRIOTE and DIG MAN against the other six contenders, the trio having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Kildisart (good to soft)

 

3.35: It goes without saying that it is difficult to leave Cue Card out of the equation, especially as he has won this event on his only two starts in the contest in 2013 and again last year.  Time moves against us all unfortunately and if there was just one horse barring the way for Colin Tizzard’s grand servant sentiment might have ruled the day, though with four rapidly improving seven-year-olds in the contest, that option is not a variable with Cue Card now showing distinct signs of wear and tear. Speredek was included in the afore mentioned quartet out of sheer admiration for a horse that does not know the meaning of defeat though on this occasion, CONEY ISLAND, TOP NOTCH and WAITING PATENTLY are three mightily impressive types to take on.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though much could change by the time that flag fall arrives!  Barry Geraghty is responsible for giving the Irish raider the marginal call, given that the horse looked beaten the last day but Barry insisted that he was merely idling, giving the impression that there was much more to come from the Flemensfirth gelding, though there needs to be in this company!  In terms of potential future champions, this is the most exhilarating renewal of this event since the old king died.

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Favourite factor: 14 of the 19 market leaders during the study period claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include thirteen successful market leaders. Ten of the last twelve favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:

1/1—Coney Isalnd (good to soft)

2/2—Cue Card (2 x soft)

3/3—Top Notch (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.10: The booking of James Bowen aboard BALLYHEIGUE BAY catches the eye and no mistake, as does the amount of cash waiting in the positive queue, just in case potential layers miss the trainer/jockey combination, given that Chris Gordon landed another decent prize with Tara Bridge at Sandown yesterday.  Others for the mix include TEMPLEROSS, BUCKLE STREET and the potential ‘dark horse’ in the contest LAUGHARNE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have claimed bronze medals when securing Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners--Nicky Henderson—6/38 (loss of 9 points) – 30/154 (loss of 39)

4—Gary Moore (3/20 – loss of 5) – 8/82 – loss of 25

4—David Pipe (0/1) – 9/59 – loss of 3

3—Kim Bailey (1/5 – loss of 2) – 3/32 – loss of 23)

3—Martin Keighley (First runners at Ascot this season) – 1/12 +2

3—Paul Nicholls (2/11 – loss of 5) – 29/152 – loss of 22)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 1/8 +13

2—Ruth Jefferson (First ever runners at Ascot)

2—Suzy Smith (0/5) – 1/14 – loss of 7

2—Colin Tizzard (0/15) – 8/63 – loss of 3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 5) – 2/46 – loss of 35

2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Ascot this season) – 0/10)

2—Evan Williams (0/4) – 3/46 – loss of 21

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £95.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Wincanton: £66.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £55.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £61.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th February

FEBRUARY – FEBRUARY 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £73.70 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 11 (Church Leap), 2 (The Brothers) & 1 (Sir Egbert)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Run To Milan), 3 (Marten) & 2 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Max Ward), 4 (Modus), 1 (King’s Socks) & 3 (Overtown Express)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Broken Quest), 3 (Smart Boy) & 11 (Fly Du Charmil)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Big Bad John) & 3 (Brandon Hill)

Leg 6 (4.05): 1 (Beakstown) & 4 (Gold Blade)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.20: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 whereby CHURCH LEAP, THE BROTHERS and SIR EGBERT are offered chances in a weak opening contest, especially by Kempton standards. The trio is listed in order of preference, especially as positive exchange money is ready to pour on the first named seven-year-old at realistic requests at the time of writing.
Favourite factor:  All five favourites had finished out of the frame since the inaugural (15/8) market leader obliged in 2008, before the 7/2 jolly scraped home by the minimum margin in 2013.  Three of the last five favourites have subsequently secured Placepot places.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Bolving (good to soft)

1.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the ten renewals and this year’s five representatives should best be represented by RUN TO MILAN and MARTEN.  That said, CHOSEN PATH is taken to get the better of both of the six-year-olds, with Alan King having scored with three of his six runners yesterday which resulted in a 24/1 treble for the popular trainer.  Although OK Corral is as short as 4/6 in a place in the dead of night, even money is becoming available about Nicky Henderson’s favourite which is a more realistic price from my viewpoint which still requires ‘taking on’ from a value for money Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4-5/4-10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/2—Ok Corral (good & soft)

 

2.25: The trade press quote of 10/1 about MAX WARD always looked fanciful from my viewpoint and I was pleased enough to take 9/1 ‘early doors’ this morning about the Tom George raider, mainly because of a little value for money in a race where question marks are in evidence relating to all four declarations.  I will be offering the quartet for my Placepot permutation in the hope that the horse with the fewest units wins the day, which could well be another bonus point if ‘Max’ obliges.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won, though the other four market leaders to date all missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Max Ward (good)

1/1—Moduis (good to soft)

 

3.00: Quantity rather than quality is in evidence here, with three selections needed to get us through to the last two legs of our favourite wager.  Listed in order of preference, I will settle for BROKEN QUEST, SMART BOY and FLY DU CHARMIL, all three horses having attract exchange money to a fashion.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite frustratingly finished just outside the money for relevant supports of the market leader.

 

3.30: Eight and nine-year-olds have shared eight of the last nine renewals, with nine-year-old BIG BAD JOHN making most appeal this time around. ASK THE WEATHERMAN is another vintage representative with a Placepot chance, though BRANDON HILL deserves his place at the top of the market from what we have witnessed to date.
Favourite factor: We were awaiting the first successful favourite following seven renewals before the 3/1 market leader duly obliged two years ago.  The race reverted to type last year when the 15/8 favourite finished nearer last than first.

Record of the course winner in the penultimate Placepot leg:

1/2—Bugsy Malone (good)

 

4.05: Layers are split regarding the chance of the Nicky Henderson newcomer GOLD BLADE though either way, Dan Skelton’s Irish import BEAKSTOWN is expected to land the dividend for us if we are live going into the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Although four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, four of the previous five market leaders prevailed.

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season – followed by five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (11/32 +3) – 61/216 – loss of 2 points

5—Alan King (3/22 – loss of 15) – 25/161 – loss of 60

4—Chris Gordon (0/11) – 8/54 +57

4—Paul Nicholls (9/22 – loss of 1) – 36/161 – loss of 13

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 +2) – 11/68 +16)

3—Jack R Barber (0/1) – 0/2

3—Harry Fry (4/11 +3) – 13/60 – loss of 16

3—Tom George (1/7 – loss of 2) – 10/60 – loss of 1

3—Neil King (First runners at Kempton this season) – 2/16 +8)

3—Gary Moore (0/22) – 5/99 – loss of 63

3—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 – loss of 3) – 6/41 – loss of 3

2—Vic Dartnall (0/2) – 2/23 +7

2—David Dennis (0/3) – 2/19 – loss of 13

2—Warren Greatrex (1/3 – slight profit) – 3/25 – loss of 11

2—Laura Mongan (0/2) – 0/4

2—Ben Pauling (1/7 – loss of 1) – 5/35 – loss of 16

2—Richard Phillips (1/2 +4) – 1/10 – loss of 10

2—David Pipe (0/2) – 5/52 – loss of 25

2—Denis Quinn (0/2) – 0/3

2—Fiona Shaw (0/2) – 0/4

2—Dan Skelton (0/20) – 8/104 – loss of 77

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/9 – slight loss) – 11/63 – loss of 20

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £127.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £110.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 3rd February

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £146.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Countister) & 2 (Ainchea)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Cepage)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Buveur D’Air)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Cyrname), 5 (Terrefort), 2 (Kalondra) & 4 (West Approach)

Leg 5 (3.00): 9 (Melrose Boy), 15 (Dashing Perk), 4 (Topofthegame) & 14 (King Of Fashion)

Leg 6 (3.35): 11 (Shanroe Santos). 8 (Holly Bush Henry), 1 (Yala Enki) & 9 (Wicked Willy)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson will want to seek compensation for the defeat of Rather Be in this event twelve months ago.  Nicky has declared his Doncaster winner COUNTISTER who won on soft ground in France on two occasions before crossing the English Channel.  Colin Tizzard’s Flemensfirth gelding AINCHEA looks the obvious danger in a race which could provide a few clues for better races in the spring.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Nicky Henderson trained) 4/5 market leader was beaten by the 7/4 second favourite (Alan King) when claiming a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ainchea (good to soft)

 

1.15: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, whilst eight of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 11-5.  As was the case twelve months ago, seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence again this time around.  Kerry Lee is well represented in a race which she won last year, with GINO TRAIL preferred to TOM GAMBLE on this occasion.  GINO TRAIL failed to find another gear to cope with Speredek over course and distance the last day, though there was no disgrace in finishing second to that useful performer under heavy conditions.  CEPAGE could split Kerry’s pair here, with the Venetia William’s raider lurking in the ‘superior’ sector of the weight according to the trends.
Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via eleven renewals during which time, six market leaders having finished in the frame.

 

1.50: Nicky Henderson (saddles last year’s winner BUVEUR D’AIR) has won four of the last six renewals of this event when represented and the champion hurdler should have no problem winning his thirteenth race on his sixteenth assignment.  Bookmakers will be betting on the distance – my guess for the record: 12 lengths.  John Constable will fill the runner up berth at a respectable distance accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six of the last nine favourites have won, whilst eight market leaders during the last 13 years have secured totplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the field in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buveur D’Air

 

2.25: Seven-year-old’s (not represented last year) have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Scilly Isles’ novice event, as have seven of the last 14 gold medallists.  KALONDRA is much preferred to No Comment of the pair of seven-year-olds though Noel Fehily’s mount might have to give way close home to the likes of CYRNAME and TERREFORT whose respective trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson go head to head again in a feature contest.  WEST APPROACH is not entirely dismissed at the time of writing, fearful that a non runner might raise its ugly head before flag fall, creating a ‘win only’ contest which would put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.
Favourite factor: The last 19 winners all scored at odds of 10/1 or less, with ten winning favourites having been recorded in the process. 17 of the 19 winners scored at a maximum price of 9/2, whilst 12 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Eight of the last eleven market leaders have obliged.

 

3.00: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, whilst Paul Nicholls (TOPOFTHEGAME) has saddled three of the last eight winners.  Paul’s six-year-old has to be included in the Placepot equation from my viewpoint, albeit he might represent poor value for money from a win perspective given that he is taking on the weight trends. That said, MELROSE BOY is also carrying plenty of pounds and ounces, though Harry Fry has a habit of annoying the handicapper with his improving young horses.  Each way alternative options from lower down the handicap include DASHING PERK and KING OF FASHION.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4) winners.

Record of course winners in the field in the fifth event:

1/1—Golan Fortune (good to soft)

1/1—Buywise (heavy)

 

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3.30: 13 of the last 16 winners have carried a maximum weight of 11-4, whilst Lucy Wadham (has won with the last two runners she has saddled in the contest) has declared SHANROE SHANROE.  Lucy’s course and distance winner is included in my Placepot mix alongside YALA ENKI, HOLLY BUSH HENRY and WICKED WILLY.  The latter named raider is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies whose last twenty horses have been beaten which is something of a worry, whilst YALA ENKI is a horse I have (seemingly) failed to call right every time the Venetia Williams trained raider has run.  That said, Venetia has won two of the last four renewals of this event whereby we live in hope.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten market leaders have won (first favourites to oblige since 1998), whilst eight of the market leaders during the study period have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the field in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Bishops Road (heavy)

2/10—Loose Chips (good)

1/1—Holly Bush Henry (good to soft)

1/2—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/6—Vino Griego (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 winners—Nicky Henderson(3/10 – loss of 2 points) – 34/129 +13

5—Kerry Lee (0/2) – 3/14 +1

5—Paul Nicholls (2/18 – loss of 10) – 26/174 loss of 22

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3.46 – loss of 36

4—Evan Williams (1/5 +8) – 1/34 – loss of 21)

3—Phil Middleton (0/3) – 4/9 +17

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 2/22 – slight loss

3—Gary Moore (1/13 – loss of 7) – 22/104 +79

2—David Dennis (First runners at Sandown this season) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/9 +17) – 5/54 +8

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/6) – 2/51 – loss of 43

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/8 +10) – 7/50 - +21

2—Venetia Williams (1/3 – slight profit) – 9/93 – loss of 51

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £459.00 (6 favourites- 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Wetherby: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £296.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: Essentially this is a new meeting

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 1st February

WINCANTON – FEBRUARY 1

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.50 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 12 (Aardwolf) & 5 (Molineaux)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Persian Delight), 3 (San Pedro De Senam) & 2 (Valhalla)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Drops Of Jupitor), 6 (Jubilympics) & 8 (Rosemary Russet)

Leg 4 (3.00): 3 (On The Road), 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 4 (Here’s Herbie)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Siruh Du Lac), 2 (Kayf Adventure) & 1 (Vic De Touzain)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Unioniste)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: I fully understand why the bookmakers are only offering odds on prices about MOLINEAUX in the dead of night, though it would take a brave investor to pile in too heavily on a horse which faces its tenth assignment as a maiden.  Warren Greatrex looks the main threat here with the in form trainer having declared AARDWOLF who reached the heady heights of 93 on the level as a winner of three races.  Not beaten far at Pontefract on soft ground on one occasion, Richard Johnson’s mount should handle conditions as well any of his rivals whereby at the odds of offer at 11/4, AARDWOLF would be the marginal call.  If that price drifts too much over the next few hours however, my interest from a win perspective would be diluted.

Favourite factor: The first two (odds on) favourites had prevailed at odds of 1/4 & 8/11 before the next market leader could only plod home in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 6/1, 14/1 & 10/1.  Thankfully, the race reverted to type last year when the 5/4 favourite obliged.

 

1.50: As winners on heavy ground, SAN PEDRO DE SENAM and VALHALLA are entitled to plenty of respect, though this could be the chance for PERSIAN DELIGHT to make up for lost time as an eight-year-old having only tackled seven assignments to date, two of which were successful.  All three runners are included in my permutation but that said, I would like the latter named Paul Nicholls raider to score, if only to see how good the Lucarno gelding might have been if avoiding injuries down the years.  Maybe it’s not too late in the day for PERSIAN DELIGHT to pick up some decent prizes from here on in.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (9/4**, 5/4, Evens & 10/11) winners.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3—Persian Delight (soft)

 

2.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, yet no vintage representatives were involved twelve months ago.  That is not the case this time around however, with eight of the nine entries representing the vintage!  Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong just now and though Solstice Twilight will struggle to become involved at the business end of the contest from my viewpoint, stable companion DROPS OF JUPITOR will go close to extending the trainer’s recent tally which stands at 6/10. That said, this ground will be softer than when she has scored before, whilst a new trip is also tried for the first time whereby the trade press quote of 4/6 looks plenty skinny enough.  JUBILYMPICS and ROSEMARY RUSSET boast claims on the best of their form, whilst Kayley Woollacott (Dinos Benefit) will prefer the peace and quiet to the hubbub at Cheltenham on Saturday. This is her (south-west) manor however, whereby there will be a massive ovation for Kayley and the team if the mare can lift this prize.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst favourites came to the gig on a five timer two years ago, only for the 11/10 market leader to find the 6/4 second favourite too strong close home.

 

3.00: Bryony Frost takes her only booked ride (until Sunday at the earliest at the time of writing) aboard CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK and with Lizzie Kelly aboard another horse in the next race with similar (decent) claims, the ladies could well show the boys the way home, as was the case at Prestbry Park on Saturday of course.  There is (at least) one potential thorn standing in her way here as ON THE ROAD is re-routed to timber following two efforts over the larger obstacles of late.  Proven on heavy ground (gold and silver medals via three relevant assignments to date), the Evan Williams raider would go very close here if back to his best.  Lucy Gardner (Here’s Herbie) and Bridget Andrews (Hurricane Hollow) also have rides in the race, making the girls 4/6 chances to land the spoils between them before the form book is taken into account.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader (frustratingly) finished fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position in the process as did last the next 15/8 favourite.  The following 13/8 (Paul Nicholls trained) market leader duly obliged before last year’s 11/4 favourite fell when moving into contention.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Captain Cattistock (soft)

 

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3.35: Three of the five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-8 and with the projected heavy conditions in place, it would come as no surprise if the Siruh Du Lac went mighty close with Lizzie Kelly still offering great value for her three pound claim.  Remarkably, this is Lizzie’s first ride since winning on Agrapart at Cheltenham on Saturday and for some reason, SIRUH DU LAC is her only mount for the foreseeable future – wake up trainers!  That said, VIC DE TOUZAIN is too big at 12/1 in a place this morning, whilst the ground has come right for KAYF ADVENTURE and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished ‘in the three’ (exact science) to date. The statistics include two winning favourites which were both returned at 9/4.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on card:

1/2—Kayf Adventure (heavy)

1/1—Le Boizelo (heavy)

 

4.15: I have made the point several times before that Hunter Chase events have the best record in terms of winning favourites under either code of the sport and with the conditions of this event hugely favouring UNIONISTE, the trend will surely be extended in this grade/company.  Anyone who knocks the exchanges should take into the account the ‘insurance’ that we ‘Potters’ can take out if we have successfully made it through to the final leg of our favourite wager, especially when we can ‘lay back’ at odds of around 1/6 to at least ensure that we are in a ‘no lose’ situation on the day if need be.  UNIONISTE would be giving this pair an additional 15 pounds+ in a handicap event, whereby the Paul Nicholls raider represents ‘banker’ material, given the opportunity of ‘insurance’ if we need it.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the frame, though we have had to wait until the last two years for the (8/13 & 4/9) market leaders to oblige from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (3/13 – loss of 1 point) – 9/65 – loss of 24

4—Paul Nicholls (6/34 – loss of 4) – 80/245 – loss of 55

4—Colin Tizzard (6/44 (loss of 21) – 27/225 – loss of 72

3—Philp Hobbs (2/10 – loss of 10) – 23/153 – loss of 38

3—Neil Mulholland (2/20 – loss of 13) – 13/141 – loss of 51

2—Gary Moore (1/7 – loss of 4) – 3/43 – loss of 23

2—Jeremy Scott (2/12 +1) – 10/101 – loss of 43

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 5/32 +13

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Towcester: £231.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,688.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Southwell: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 27th January

CHELTENHAM – JANUARY 27

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £33.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Apple’s Shakira) & 3 (Erick Le Rouge)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Ballyandy), 3 (Full Irish) & 1 (Sizing Tennessee)

Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (O O Seven), 9 (Coo Star Siviola) & 1 (Frodon)

Leg 4 (2.25): 6 (American), 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 8 (The Last Samurai)

Leg 5 (3.00): 8 (Pacific De Baune) & 9 (Santini)

Leg 6 (3.35): 6 (Finian’s Oscar), 3 (Wholestone) & 2 (Beer Goggles)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  I was in the Gold Cup restaurant at Cheltenham at this meeting eight years ago and you could have heard the proverbial pin drop when the 100/1 winner Baccalaureate scooted clear up the run-in.  That said, seven of the last eleven renewals have been won by favourites of one description or another and with APPLE’S SHIKARI having been declared (from two options) by Nicky Henderson, the recent trend looks set to continue.  ERICK LE ROUGE offers an alternative forecast/each way play if you are betting with the bookmaker’s money after a successful day on Friday.
Favourite factor: Only four of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame, though six of the last 15 winners have scored at 100/1--50/1--25/1—25/1--11/1--11/2.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/2—Apple’s Shikari (2 x soft)


1.15: Two of the last 13 winners of this event went on to win the discarded Cathcart Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, whilst the 2005 winner (Lacdoudal) finished second in the inaugural running of the ‘Jewson’.  The winner eight years ago was Ping Pong Sivola who went on to finish second best to stable companion Something Wells in the ‘Freddie Williams’ whilst the 2009 winner (Hey Big Spender) was still going really well in the ‘Jewson‘ when exiting the contest.  The 2012 winner Bless The Wings ran tenth in Hunt Ball’s contest, before the 2013 gold medallist Vino Griego ran second in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival at odds of 11/1.   The 2014 winner was made 7/2 favourite for the 'Kim Muir' but finished down the field.  The next winner (Generous Ransom) was placed at 8/1 in the Listed Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival.  Last year’s gold medallist was pulled up in the ‘RSA’.  Upwards and onwards in positive mode by informing that seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion. BALLYANDY and FULL IRISH are the relevant raiders this time around, whilst SIZING TENNESSEE demands respect, given that Colin Tizzard held two options at the top of the weight in midweek when looking to land his third win in the race in the last nine years.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has prevailed thus far, whilst 14 of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame!

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/8—Sizing Tennessee (soft)

2/5—Ballyandy (good & good to soft)

2/7—Solstice Star (soft & heavy)

 

1.50: Four recent winners of this race went on to contest what was then the ‘Mildmay Of Flete’ (now the Racing Post Plate) without any of the scorers finishing in the frame at the Festival.  13 of the 14 horses that contested races at the Festival after winning this event finished out with the washing.  I cannot remember the last time that Paul Nicholls would have saddled just one runner at one of the main Cheltenham meetings but that is the scenario today, whereby the chance of FRODON has to be respected.  Anyone who doubted Paul’s word earlier in the season that he was going to ‘downsize’ his number of runners this season have been proved wrong.  O O SEVEN has been the subject of some support overnight, whilst the Placepot chance for COO STAR SIVOLA is there for all to see, especially with Nicky Williams having saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Six of the 20 favourites have won to date, offering punters a profit of £762.50 to one hundred pound level stakes.  10 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/4—Frodon (soft)

2/5—Shantou Flyer (good & soft)

1/4—O O Seven (good)

1/4—King’s Odyssey (heavy)

1/4—Ballyhill (heavy)

1/7—Coo Star Sivola (good to soft)

 

2.25: No matter which way this event pans out, we have to suggest that this is a poor renewal given that it is meant to be a realistic Gold Cup trial which in all honesty, the race has rarely proved to be.  BRISTOL DE MAI still has plenty of doubters but surely if there is to be a subsequent ‘Blue Riband’ winner in the field, it is the Nigel Twiston-Davies representative.  AMERICAN could yet be anything I guess, whilst ground conditions have worked out well for supporters of THE LAST SAMURAI.  If I had to opt for an outsider to outrun his odds, the nomination would be Singlefarmpayment.
Favourite factor: The last 19 favourites have all been beaten, whilst nine of the last 18 market leaders have failed to claim toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Cotswold Chase:

1/4—Definitely Red (soft)

3/12—Perfect Candidate (good – soft – heavy)

1/8—Theatre Guide (good)

2/5—Singlefarmpayment (good & heavy)

 

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3.00: With Alan King not represented this year (Alan has secured three of the last six renewals), the race looks best left to Nicky Henderson’s pair, namely PACIFIC DE BAUNE and SANTINI, not that I would be interested in having a bet in the race aside form or favourite wager.  It’s difficult to tell how much BLACK OP will have improved for his facile success the other week but if there is a ‘dark horse’ lurking in the wings, it’s the Tom George raider I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last decade with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.  Although 16/1 and 12/1 winners have emerged during the last six years, the other gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2 via the last ten renewals.  The last six favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

2/2—Slate House (good & soft)

1/1—Tikkanbar (heavy)

 

3.35: This meeting was ruined by the passing of Many Clouds after last year’s brave victory in the ‘Cotswold’ and now there will tears shed before this race is even run I’ll wager, when BEER GOGGLES is ‘stripped off’ in the paddock by connections for reasons I won’t dwell on just now.  To say that a victory for the seven-year-old would be ‘emotional’ is the biggest understatement of this year (or arguably any season – save for Aldaniti in 1981) but that scenario is a distinct possibility if Richard Johnson’s mount can build on his success last time out Newbury.  Emotions aside, FINIAN’S OSCAR (winner of six of his nine races to date) and WHOLESTONE (rarely runs a bad race) are marginally preferred to THE WORLDS END if Beer Goggles fails to score, at least leaving some packets of tissues for sale in the kiosks for the next meeting at Prestbury Park.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, though three of the other four market leaders finished out with the washing when missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Agrapart (soft)

4/6—Wholestone (2 x soft – good – heavy)

2/9—Court Minstrel (good & good to soft)

3/4—Thomas Campbell (2 x good & soft)

1/1—Finan’s Oscar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Tom George (1/13 – loss of 6) – 6/97 – loss of 55

6—Colin Tizzard (7/32 +28) – 19/187 – loss of 80

5—Nicky Henderson (7/23 – marginal profit) – 36/332 – loss of 143

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/36 +28) – 28/242 – loss of 64

4—Nick Williams (0/7) – 5/50 +19

3—Fergal O’Brien (3/20 – marginal loss) – 14/109 +33

2—Brian Ellison (0/2) – 0/20

2—Harry Fry (1/10 – loss of 6) – 13/76 – loss of 8

2—Warren Greatrex (1/9 – loss of 5) – 4/64 – loss of 34

2—Philip Hobbs (1/14 – loss of 9) – 34/242 – loss of 17

2—Martin Keighley (2/13 +23) – 11/95 +18

2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) – 1/41 – loss of 37

2—Sophie Leech (0/12) – 1/31 – loss of 10 points

2—Evan Williams (0/5) – 7/87 – loss of 3

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £591.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £163.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £82.20 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Kempton: £31.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 26th January

DONCASTER – JANUARY 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £32.30 (7 favourites: 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 2 (Doktor Glaz), 1 (Spiritual Man) & 5 (Glimpse Of Gold)

Leg 2 (1.25): 9 (Perfect Harmony) & 3 (Cracking Destiny)

Leg 3 (1.55): 1 (Mount Mews) & 2 (Wotzizname)

Leg 4 (2.30): 8 (Nube Negra) & 1 (Bambys Boy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bako De La Saulaie), 8 (Amber Gambler) & 9 (Baileys Concerto)

Leg 6 (3.40): 12 (Does It In Style), 7 (Peppay Le Pugh) & 10 (Fit For Fifty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50:  Every horse in training is allowed an off day once in a while whereby I am offering DOKTOR GLAZ another chance following a slightly disappointing effort here at Town Moor the last day.  The fact that money is emerging for Rose Dobbin’s raider is a positive sign too, particularly from a Placepot perspective.  Others to consider include SPIRITUAL MAN (the first of no less than eight runners on the card for Jonjo O’Neill) and GLIMPSE OF GOLD.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had claimed toteplacepot positions (one (7/2** winner) before the 2016 renewal which witnessed the complete demise of the 7/2 market leader.  Things returned to type twelve months ago however when the 2/1 market leader snared a Placeepot position without winning the relevant contest.

 

1.25: Alan King has enjoyed plenty of success on the corresponding weekend in recent years and his beaten favourite PERFECT HARMONY is given another chance in this grade/company.  Alan’s Definite Article gelding ran halfway down the field in last year’s Championship Bumper event at the Cheltenham Festival in March and even though a 33/1 chance on the day, contesting that event (finished halfway down the pack) bodes well for his chance here.  CRACKING DESTINY is the obvious danger from the form lines we have witnessed to date, especially with Nicky Henderson sending just the one runner up the M1 today despite plenty of entries earlier in the week.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

1.55:  A race which inevitably attracts, Harry Fry is looking to maintain his 100% record in the contest with WOTZIZNAME who appears to have MOUNT MEWS to beat.  Malcolm Jefferson has some really nice horses at home this season and his progressive seven-year-old Presenting gelding looks sure to take the beating this afternoon.  Philip Hobbs continues to enter his horses sparingly (only four runners during the last week) during a rare patch of indifferent form, whereby the jury is very much ‘out’ regarding the chance of Robbib’hannon.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite missed out on a toteplacepot position behind horses which filled the frame at 6/4 & 25/1.  It was a similar case the following year as the 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing behind horses that did the business from a Placepot perspective at 9/2 & 4/1.  The next 7/4 favourite won before last year’s 10/11 market leader finished last of four in a ‘win only’ contest.

Course winner in the third event on the card:

2/2—Mount Mews (good & soft)

 

2.30: Richard Johnson has won on his only ride for Micky Hammond this season whereby connections will be hoping that BAMBYS BOY can at least get NUBE NEGRA off the bridal at the business end of proceedings.  Although eleven runners are set to face the starter, it would be churlish in the extreme to oppose this pair.  NUBE NEGRA ran Apple’s Shakira to less than four lengths at Cheltenham the last day and a repeat of that effort (without any further improvement) would be good enough to record a facile victory, for all Dickie’s urgings aboard Bambys Boy up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date, stats which include one (4/9) winner.

 

3.05:  There are overnight signs that the potential ‘rag’ in the field BAILEYS CONCERTO will outrun his 25/1 trade press quote, a price which is not too conspiuous in the dead of night when writing this column.  Dianne Sayer’s twelve-year-old is offered up as the speculative each way play accordingly, albeit more logical winners in the field include BAKO DE LA SAULAIE and AMBLER GAMBLER.
Favourite factor: A couple of (2/1 & 9/4) favourites missed out on Placepot positions before the next market leader scored at 4/1.  This was followed by last year’s 11/4 joint favourites which filled the forecast positions.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/3—Steel Summit (good)

1/3—Grandads Horse (soft)

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3.40: DOES IT IN STYLE and PEPPAY LE PUGH look the safest Placepot options in the last leg of our favourite wager, whilst adding FIT FOR FIFTY into the equation, with Donald McCain’s runner going so well just now.  Donald has sent out nine of his last seventeen runners to winning effect, though a Placepot position will simply be appreciated here if we have live units running onto the finale.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via two gold medals and one of the silver variety.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (4/19 +18) – 12/90 – loss of 16 points

7—Nicky Richards (1/4 – slight loss) – 4/18 +11

5—Tim Vaughan (0/1) – 0/27

5—Ian Williams (2/10 – loss of 2) – 8/65 – loss of 9

3—Richard Phillips (0/1) – 2/28 – loss of 8

3—Dan Skelton (3/9 +1) – 5/62 – loss of 46

2—Jennie Candlish (0/1) – 3/22 – loss of 5

2—Ben Case (1/4 +3) – 4/26 – loss of 4

2—David Dennis (1/5 – loss of 2 points) – 3/31 – loss of 22

2—Rose Dobbin (2/6 +7) – 4/18 +11

2—Oliver Greenall (No runners at Doncaster during the last five years)

2—Alan King (0/8) – 22/92 +35

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/13 – loss of 5) – 7/74 – loss of 27

2—Michael Mullineaux (First runners at Doncaster this season) – 1/6 +45

2—Dianne Sayer (0/2) – 2/11 +7

2—Michael Scudamore (0/2) – 1/9 – loss of 4 points

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £52.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 24th January

CATTERICK – JANUARY 24 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £24.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 3 (Jaunty Flyer) & 9 (Teescomponents Lad)

Leg 2 (1.55): 1 (Pinch Of Ginger), 9 (Major Ridge) & 8 (Ronnie Lawson)

Leg 3 (2.30): 4 (Sakhee’s City), 3 (Jimmy Breekie) & 5 (Apterix)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Bentelimar), 2 (Cracking Find), 4 (Somewhere To Be) & 3 (Justforjames)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Kelka) & 5 (Totalize)

Leg 6 (4.05): 6 (Derrynane) & 7 (Notebook)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: The front pair in the market finished well clear of their rivals twelve months ago, albeit in the wrong order for the majority of the investors.  We appear to have a similar race in prospect here, with JAUNTY FLYER and TEESCOMPONENTS LAD having been declared.  I wouldn’t back either horse to win the race with your money though from a Placepot perspective, there appear to be few alternative options.  Haasab looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions at odds of 9/4 and 8/11 respectively.

 

1.55: Nine-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests (my selection finished second last year at 10/1) and this year’s two relevant entries MAJOR RIDGE (won the race twelve months ago) and RONNIE LAWSON will both represent yours truly in the Placepot mix this time around.  That said, PINCH OF GINGER demands plenty of respect and is added into the equation.  Donald McCain is the leading trainer at this corresponding meeting in recent times and with five of his last eleven runners having won, PINCH OF GINGER will be a popular order at around the 3/1 mark I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Four of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one successful (joint) favourite.  Ballabriggs won this event in 2010, the year before Donald McCain’s raider went on to secured Grand National glory at Aintree.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Major Ridge (soft)

 

2.30: Six, seven and eight-year-olds have won seven of the ten renewals contested during the last eleven years between them, via less than 56% of the total number of runners (60/108).  Last year’s first named raider finished second at 33/1 and the pick of the three relevant representatives on this occasion appear to be SAKHEE’S CITY, JIMMY BREEKIE and APTERIX.  The latter named raider represents Brian Ellison who also saddles the fourth vintage contender Always Resolute.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have finished in the (exact science) frame, statistics which include one (7/2**) successful favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Zeroshadesofgrey (soft)

1/1—Sakhee’s City (good to soft)

1/2—Always Resolute (soft)

 

3.00: Micky Hammond’s runners can rarely be ignored in this part of the country whatever prices are in evidence whereby I will be include Micky’s outsider of four here, namely JUSTFORJAMES.  Yes, the other three horses are more logical winners but the thought of the ‘rag’ winning to set fire to so many Placepot units is too difficult to resist.  For the record, the other trio is listed in marginal order of preference as BENTELIMAR, CRACKING FIND and SOMEWHERE TO BE.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Catterick card.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Cracking Find (good to soft)

 

3.35:  Although matters would take a distinct turn for the worse if a non runner reared its ugly head in this event, I feel duty bound to rely on KELKA and TOTALIZE (preferred in that order) to get us safely through to the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Another new event on the Catterick programme.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Kelka (soft)

 

4.05: Seven-year-olds had secured six of the twelve available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four of the five (12/1-7/2*-11/4*-9/4*) winners.  Indeed, last year’s only vintage representative scored and it would come as no shock if the likes of DERRYNANE or the 2016 winner NOTEBOOK added to their tally.  When approaching the last leg of our favourite wager, it’s as well to have short priced horses on your side on occasions because if the dividend looks likely to pay well with just the one leg to overcome, you can lay fancied horses to be placed at really short odds is you want to take out ‘insurance’.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/2 favourite was brought down by the only faller in the contest at the first flight five years ago.  The 2013 meeting was abandoned when we were all trapped in our homes via snowdrifts before the next two market leaders obliged.  Last year’s 4/1 market leader scraped into a Placepot postion by securing a bronze gong.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/7—Snowed In (2 x good to soft & soft)

2/3—Notebook (2 x soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Micky Hammond (3/22 +4) – 12/147 – loss of 64

4—Victor Thompson (First runners at Catterick this season) – 0/2

3—Laura Mongan (0/3) – 0/5

3—Sue Smith (3/13 – loss of 3 points) – 27/91 +75

3—Brian Ellison (1/5 – level profit/loss on the season) – 18/66 – loss of 14

2—Rose Dobbin (2/10 +2) – 2/38 – loss of 25

2—Joanne Foster (0/3) – 1/36 – loss of 31

2—Iain Jardine (First runners at Catterick this season) – 0/13

2—Donald McCain (2/19 – loss of 8) – 36/166 – loss of 14

2—Tim Vaughan (0/3) – 0/14

2—Mark Walford (First runners at Catterick this season) – 1/24 – loss of 21

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: £37.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unpalced

Lingfield: £95.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £460.50 – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

2.55 Wetherby : Final Fling @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 Prominent, led 2nd, headed 3rd, chased leaders, led before 3 out, ridden before last, held on close home to win by half a length...

Next up is Wednesday's...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m on polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, I actually picked this very horse for the equivalent race here 19 days ago, when she was a late withdrawal, but I only realised this after re-selecting her today!

With that in mind, I'm unashamedly going to lift the content from 5th January, as it's all still relevant and then get myself a relatively early night! (it's currently 12.50 am). So here goes...

She's a 5 yr old mare who has finished 2113 in her last four runs : all here at Kempton including 213 over 7f and a course and distance win over a mile two starts ago.

Her trainer Mark Rimell is 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 156.35pts (+1202.6% ROI) here at Kempton, all in handicaps, from which...

  • in fields of 11-14 runners : 5/11 (45.6%) for 158.34pts (+1439.5%)
  • females are 4/10 (40%) for 149.32pts (+1493.2%)
  • those ridden by Tom Marquand are 4/7 (57.1%) for 159.66pts (+2280.4%)
  • and over this 1m course and distance : 2/3 (66.6%) for 143.89pts (+4796.47%)

Now, at this point I have to point out that the above results and returns are totally skewed by Magic Mirror herself, as those wins above not only contain a 50/1 winner that paid out at 151.75 at Betfair SP (deducting 100pts from the figures still makes them viable), but the majority of the runs were from her too!

In fact, here at Kempton, she has 4 wins from 9, including 4 from 7 in fields of 11-14 runners, 3 from 6 under Tom Marquand and 2 from 3 over course and distance. She loves it around here, has conditions set to suit and I expect another decent run from her today...

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account should take their 3/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 10th January

LUDLOW – JANUARY 10

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 11 (Zalvados) & 8 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 2 (1.20): 6 (Monbeg Oscar), 13 (Comrade Conrad) & 9 (Shall We Go Now)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Wandrin Star), 7 (Dark Mahler) & 8 (Megabucks)

Leg 4 (2.25): 8 (Flashjack) & 10 (Galactic Power)

Leg 5 (3.00): 11 (Tb Broke Her), 3 (Nansaroy) & 5 (Gooher)

Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Ask Catkin), 8 (The Last Bar) & 2 (Fille Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: There is some each way money knocking about for SHIVERMETIMBERS and the soft ground Warwick bumper winner gets the alternative each way shout to the hot favourite in the contest, especially with Charlie Deutsch still remaining decent value for his three pound claim.  ZALVADOS hardly represent value at around the 4/7 mark but his trainer Oliver Greenall has surely found a good opportunity for his Soldier Of Fortune gelding in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby no previous results apply.

 

1.20: SHALL WE GO NOW would not be one of the leading lights back at the Harry Fry ranch but his Placepot chance is not dismissed in such a poor contest.  Beaten on all five assignments in this country (favourite on three occasions), MONBEG OSCAR has broken a few hearts/investors already but like Zalvados in the opening event on the card, the Evan Williams representative will surely finish in the frame, even if only the layers are applauding him after the race.  COMRADE CONRAD is the other plausible winner in the field.

 

1.55: DARK MAHLER shone through the gloom at the last meeting here at Ludlow and Emma Lavelle’ s raider in expected to go close to following up, even though Kim Bailey’s WANDRIN STAR will be fancied by his in form connections.  Throw the each way alternative option MEGABUCKS into the equation and we have quite a good contest to witness.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Secret Door (soft)

1/1—Old Salt (soft)

1/1—Dark Mahler (good)

 

2.25: There is some semi serious money in the realistic positive queue for the only course winner in the field, namely GALACTIC POWER, with Robin Dickin’s Gamut gelding offering some opposition to FLASHJACK at the time of writing.  Henry Daly’s recent winner (escapes a penalty) represents a yard which if flying at present and this pair will do for me against the remaining 15 contenders.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Galactic Power (good to soft)

 

3.00: NANSAROY and GORSKY ISLAND are the alternative each way options to the Hereford winner TB BROKE HER in another race on the card which will not take a great deal of winning.  That said, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of GOOHER, especially representing the (Henry Daly) yard that sponsors the contest.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/4—Gorsky Island (2 x good to soft)

 

3.35: Tom Symonds boasts decent figures at the track (see the stats below) and there is every chance that ASK CATKIN could outrun her odds in the last leg of our favourite wager.  That said, THE LAST BAR and FILLE DES CHAMPS are perfectly plausible Placepot types which should land the dividend between them, albeit I’m adding the first named outsider into the mix.

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Evan Williams (1/20 – loss of 14 points) – 107/680 – loss of 177

4—Tom George (0/5) – 9/118 – loss of 44

4—Dan Skelton (3/13 – loss of 3 – 21/91 – loss of 13

3—Kim Bailey (8/21 +15) – 71/419 – loss of 37

3—Neil Mulholland (0/8) – 10/57 +21

3—David Pipe (1/8 – loss of 2) – 22/148 – loss of 26

3—Jeremy Scott (1/5 – loss of 3) – 8/59 – loss of 13

3—Tom Symonds (1/7 +34) – 6/62 +7

3—Paul Webber (1/1 +1) – 7/74 – loss of 37

3—Venetia Williams (0/8) – 63/402 – loss of 61

2—Henry Daly (2/16 – loss of 6) – 65/471 – loss of 137

2—Robin Dickin (1/6 – loss of 1) – 16/122 – loss of 58

2—Harry Fry (1/5 – slight loss) – 8/28 +5

2—Paul Henderson (0/3) – 0/10

2—Sheila Lewis (0/2) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/17 – loss of 7) – 14/216 – loss of 31

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2) – 0/32

2—David Rees (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 3/27 – loss of 9

2—Matt Sheppard (1/13 – loss of 5) 18/242 – loss of 51

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15 – loss of 5) – 83/684 – loss of 184

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kempton: £120.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £23.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

 

2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 5th January

KEMPTON – JANUARY 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £152.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Jans Joy), 3 (Inuk) & 2 (Be Mindful)

Leg 2 (6.15): 4 (Broughtons Fancy), 5 (New Rich) & 2 (Chip Or Pellet)

Leg 3 (6.45): 4 (Burauq), 5 (Olaudah) & 2 (Mossy’s Lodge)

Leg 4 (7.15): 1 (Bardd) & 2 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (7.45): 7 (Erinyes) & 8 (Boychick)

Leg 6 (8.15): 2 (Kadrizzi), 1 (Eljaddaaf) & 3 (Kodaline)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.45: Bookmakers are leaning on the right side of an each way quote about JANS JOY from their perspective and although the money in the positive queue on the exchanges is fanciful in terms of what might be offered later this morning, the Stuart Williams raider in the first name on my team sheet, especially as the trainer leads the way at this corresponding meeting during its brief history. INUK might be offered at an inflated price because of his outside draw but with only nine declared contenders, 3/1 could represent a half decent price should such odds be chalked up at some stage prior to flag fall.  Charlie Hills saddles his first runner of the year and BE MINDFUL could prove to be a serious threat to the first named pair on her handicap bow.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card with which to open proceedings.

Course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Inuk

 

6.15: Five-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals whilst claiming four of the nine available Placepot positions. CHIP OR PELLET and BROUGHTONS FANCY should lead the relevant contenders home on this occasion, with the latter named raider representing Karen Tutty who has saddled three of her last five runners to winning effect.  Eve Johnson Houghton did us a nice favour on New Year’s Eve and her first subsequent runner NEW RICH cannot be left out of the equation, particularly from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: The only favourite of four to date to claim a Placepot position did so by winning the relevant contest at 10/3.

Course winner in the second race:

4/24—New Rich

 

6.45: The pick of the five-year-olds in this second heat of the previous event on the card should prove to be MOSSY’S LODGE, though an 18/1 chance raises the eyebrows given the Bet365 quote about last year’s beaten (5/4) favourite BURAUQ who is an short as 11/1 with some firms. The lack of interest on the exchanges about Pulsating is surely accounted for via yesterday’s victory, whereby OLAUDAH is the obvious option of the two projected ‘shorties’ in the betting.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the cards whereby the same stats apply.

Course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/7—Burauq

1/14—Deer Song

 

7.15: At the respective prices of 4/7 and 11/4 offered at the time of writing, BARDD would have to be the value for money call over NIGHT OF GLORY here, albeit Andrew Balding’s hot pot has shown plenty of ability.  Seven assignments have come and gone since NIGHT OF GLORY gained his only success to date, having been sent off at a top price of 4/1 on five of those occasions (dual beaten favourite).  BARDD represents Nicky Henderson who has scored with nine of his last seventeen runners; hence the 11/4 ‘shout’.  Firmage Burg is not totally without claims but from a Placepot permutation viewpoint, I have to draw the line somewhere.

Favourite factor: This is another of the new races on the Kempton programme.

 

7.45: ERINYES (stable companion of the likely non-runner Pulsating earlier on the card) is potentially Archie Watson’s only raider here on Friday and in first time blinds from an inside draw, Oisin Murphy’s mount should figure prominently enough to warrant Placepot interest at the very least.  BOYCHICK has finished ‘in the two’ eight times via the last nine assignments and though Ed Walker’s Holy Roman Emperor gelding has not been seen for a long while, his chance is there for all to see in this grade/company.  Status Quo is the dark horse in the field, whilst Flight Of Fantasy represent little value for money from my viewpoint at the 2/1 odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite finished just out of the Placepot positions behind horses which filled the frame at 14/1, 5/1 & 20/1.

Course winners in the fifth race:

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1/2—Sureness

1/2—Erinyes

1/1--Beatisa

 

8.15: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals thus far which is a decent return given that just a lone 14/1 chance represented the vintage in the other contest.  KADRIZZI is the speculative each way call accordingly, especially as trainer Dean Ivory landed a nice 40/1 forecast for yours truly in a race at Chelmsford last time via my analysis at the Essex venue.  Indeed, Dean has also declared course specialist ELJADDAAF in the contest, whilst KODALINE is another option in an interesting last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders have ’troubled the judge’ thus far by claiming Placepot positions, stat which include one successful (7/2) favourite.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/8—Eljaddaf

2/3—Sparkalot

2/8—Born To Finish

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their career ratios at the track + level profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—John Bridger (38/794 – loss of 369 points)

2—Andrew Balding (128/896 – loss of 110)

2—Milton Bradley (29/494 – loss of 272)

2—Tony Carroll (110/1186 – loss of 372)

2—Simon Dow (36/415 – loss of 131)

2—David Evans (67/734 – loss of 291)

2—Harry Fry (1/4 – loss of 1)

2—Roger Ingram (15/273 +21)

2—Dean Ivory (75/755 – loss of 33)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (33/381 – loss of 113)

2—Tony Newcombe (17/162 – loss of 74 points)

2—Jamie Osborne (58/522 – loss of 100)

2—John O’Shea (8/111 – loss of 52)

2—Mark Pattinson (2/10 +6)

2—Ed Walker (29/209 – loss of 50)

2—Archie Watson (8/29 +4)

2—Stuart Williams (3/52 – loss of 37)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: £18.00 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 5th January 2018

Thursday's Result :

3.20 Bangor : American Life @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 Held up towards rear, headway after 3 out, stayed on flat, went 3rd close home, beaten by a length and a half.

Next up is Friday's...

8.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

She's a 5 yr old mare who has finished 2113 in her last four runs : all here at Kempton including 213 over 7f and a course and distance win over a mile two starts ago.

Her trainer Mark Rimell is 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 156.35pts (+1202.6% ROI) here at Kempton, all in handicaps, from which...

  • in fields of 11-14 runners : 5/11 (45.6%) for 158.34pts (+1439.5%)
  • females are 4/10 (40%) for 149.32pts (+1493.2%)
  • those ridden by Tom Marquand are 4/7 (57.1%) for 159.66pts (+2280.4%)
  • and over this 1m course and distance : 2/3 (66.6%) for 143.89pts (+4796.47%)

Now, at this point I have to point out that the above results and returns are totally skewed by Magic Mirror herself, as those wins above not only contain a 50/1 winner that paid out at 151.75 at Betfair SP (deducting 100pts from the figures still makes them viable), but the majority of the runs were from her too!

In fact, here at Kempton, she has 4 wins from 9, including 4 from 7 in fields of 11-14 runners, 3 from 6 under Tom Marquand and 2 from 3 over course and distance. Sje loves it around here, has conditions set to suit and I expect another decent run from her today...

...hence...... a 1pt win bet on Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG which was available in half a dozen places at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.70 (7 favourites - 4 winners - placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Kings Inn) & 7 (Salix)

Leg 2 (1.20): 5 (Tommy Silver) & 3 (Shantou Rock)

Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Midnight Tune), 3 (Treackle Tart) & 4 (Jester Jet)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Politologue), 2 (Special Taira) & 4 (Forest Bihan)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Pilgrims Bay), 1 (Sir Ivan) & 5 (Holly Bush Henry)

Leg 6 (3.40): 3 (Kayf Grace), 9 (Eddiemaurice) & 10 (Chatez)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.45: My chest infection is failing to respond to a high intake of drugs this past week whereby I would ask you excuse a slightly more basic analysis than is often the case, albeit the selections are offered in just the same way as ever.  The reasoning behind the horses I’m opting for might not be as thoroughly explained as has been the case down the years.  Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last ten winners with the trainer opting for his Newcomer KINGS INN this time around.  I’m not convinced by the form of the Alan King runners at the time of writing, whereby I will let Redicean win without being involved if that’s the way the race pans out, preferring SALIX as an option on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 14 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include eight winners via 13 contests.   Market leaders came to the gig on a seven timer two years ago before the 11/8 favourite was pulled up with something amiss.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago when the 5/4 favourite prevailed.

 

1.20: Five and six-year-olds have totally dominated this event and the trend will remain in place by the time I look at this race twelve months on.  TOMMY SILVER handles the ground well enough and Paul Nicholls might be the trainer to take advantage of Nicky Henderson’s nigh desertion of the second day of the meeting which is little short of overwhelming, given his dominance of the fixture of late.  A dual winner under soft conditions, SHANTOU ROCK is the obvious danger, hoping against hope that all five runners stand their ground with diluting the race down to a ‘win only’ contest whichwould bring a whole new perspective to our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have won thus far.

 

1.55: Nine of the eleven winners have carried weights of 10-6 or more which would normally suggest that I would swerve MIDNIGHT TUNE but such is the form of Anthony Honeyball (coupled with horse acting on the ground), that I’m including the six-year-old in my Placepot mix today.  TREACKLE TART represents some value from my viewpoint, whilst JESTER JET continues to perform with plenty of enthusiasm for his in form trainer Tom Lacey.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

2.30: SPECIAL CARGO has won two of the last three renewals of this Grade 2 prize, though PILITOLOGUE should offer plenty of resistance in the contest this year.  There is precious little between the pair on ratings though as a six-year-old, the latter named Paul Nicholls raider surely has some scope for further progress which (arguably) gives Paul’s hat trick seeker the edge.  FOREST BIHAN could be added into the mix if you came out of yesterday’s war against the layers in black figures.  Brian Ellison’s five time winner gained the easiest of his five victories to date on bad ground at Newcastle and conditions could yet have a say in the outcome of this event. Certainly if the front pair are beaten, the Placepot dividend would be well worth winning at Kempton today.  Vaniteux however seems to have lost the plot of late.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Desert Orchid’:

1/1—Politologue (good to soft)

2/2—Special Tiara (good & soft)

2/4—Vaniteux (2 x good to soft)

 

3.05: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more, whilst seven-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals with vintage representatives securing eight of the twelve available Placepot positions during the relevant period.  PILGRIMS BAY and SIR IVAN are the two seven-year-olds in the field today, whereby you just know that this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will be supporting this pair, albeit adding HOLLY BUSH HENRY into the equation with Phil Middleton boasting a wonderful 7/17 ratio in recent times.
Favourite factor: Only four of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period, stats which include two clear favourites and one successful (joint) market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

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1/2—Local Show (soft)

1/1—Pilgrims Bay (good)

 

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have shared eight of the ten renewals thus far, with the older raiders leading 5-3 to date.  I’m going against the vintage trends on this occasion (though that cost me Black Corton as a winner yesterday which also denied yours truly the Placepot dividend) as Nicky Henderson’s soft ground hat trick winner KAYF GROUND has surely been mapped out for this contest for some considerable time.  For the record, Nicky Henderson has easily saddled the most winners (nine in total) but has declared just this one runner on the card.  EDDIEMAURICE is offered up as the alternative each way option at a big price having run well in this event twelve months ago.  Less rain would have been ideal but even so, 20/1 is a massive price about a horse that was beaten less than two lengths last year, coming here on roughly the same terms.  CHATEZ does not represent value for money from a win perspective, for all that his Placepot chance is there for all to see.

 

Favourite factor: The last nine market leaders (joint jollies were recorded last year) have been turned over since the first two favourites obliged.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Mister Malarky (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their number of winners at the corresponding card during the last six years:

5 runners—Alan King (winner at 9/1)

5—Paul Nicholls (6 winners ranging between 8/11* & 13/2)

4—Gary Moore (3 winners at 12/1, 4/1 & 5/2)

2—Brian Ellison

2—Tom George (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1*)

2—Chris Gordon

2—Charlie Longsdon

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wetherby: £34.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 26th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £742.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Boxing Day Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 2 (Diese Des Bieffes) & 1 (If The Cap Fits)

Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Reigning Supreme), 5 (Wenterreadyfreddie) & 8 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (1.55): 7 (Mia’s Storm), 1 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (Fountains Windfall)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 5 (The New One)

Leg 5 (3.05): 1 (Bristol De Mai), 4 (Might Bite) & 3 (Fox Norton)

Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Take To Heart), 2 (Dashing Oscar), 3 (Connetable) & 5 (Jaleo)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

Please note the additional service below relating to stats which are available for every represented trainer at Kempton on Boxing Day.

 

12.45: On a general front, it's worth noting that 48% of the Kempton entries on Boxing Day hail from just five stables, whilst 65% are covered by just eight handlers.  Four and five-year-olds have secured 17 of the last 19 renewals of this opening contest.  Nicky Henderson has secured five renewals during the study period having held two entries at the weekend.  That said, DIESE DES BIEFFES was always the likely declaration and his is the first name on the team sheet, marginally ahead of Harry Fry’s Milan gelding IF THE CAP FITS who boasts a 4/5 record this far.  Harry Whittington boasts a fine record here at Kempton and readers should not dispel the chance of Simply The Betts too quickly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged via the last 18 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (four years ago).  14 of the last 19 market leaders have finished in the frame though that does not include last year’s (1/2) favourite which finished fourth.

Record of the course winner in the field: 

1/1--Irish Prophecy (good to soft)

1.20: Six and seven-year-olds have won ten of the last thirteen renewals between them whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.  Nicky Henderson has won five of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding ‘four cards’ at the penultimate entry stage.  Nicky has offered the green light to REIGNING SUPREME and WENYERREADYFREDDIE and I consider it extremely doubtful that both horses will finish out of the money, though this is race for watching rather than to become involved from a win perspective from my viewpoint.  If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-pooper appears to be MISTER WHITAKER, albeit Mick Channon’s only projected runner until next Saturday hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have snared gold via 16 renewals to date, though just five of the other fourteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

1.55: This is the race which set up last year’s good Placepot dividend, with the first four horses in the betting finishing out of the frame at 3/1, 10/3 & 11/2 (twice). Six-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals of this event and with BLACK CORTON representing the vintage this time around (alongside SOME INVITATION), the trend could well be extended.  Black Corton continues to defy his ‘doubters’, though there is no denying that this is his biggest test to date.  Some Invitation lacks a little experience over fences in comparison to others, whereby I’m opting (rightly or wrongly) for MIA’S STORM, BALLYOPTIC and FOUNTAINS WINDFALL just ahead of the six-year-olds this time around in a fascinating event.  When you are working this far in advance of a race like this, it is as well to have contenders who will act on the relevant ground when the flag falls, which I have taken into account according.  Foolishly perhaps, I think I have all eventualities covered!
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 20 market leaders have prevailed, whilst 12 favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  15 of the last 20 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less though that said, two of the last four gold medallists scored at 33/1 & 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2--Black Corton (good)

2.30: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals of this Christmas Hurdle and with BUVEUR D’AIR having been declared, the ratio looks likely to be improved upon on Tuesday.  This track is too quick for THE NEW ONE as I have documented before and I hope the favourite puts Nigel’s brave warrior into his place in proper fashion here as I fully expect that The New One could go very close in the ‘Stayers’ sector at the Cheltenham Festival, possibly resulting in a Championship victory at Prestbury Park in March which he so richly deserves.  I’m afraid that will not happen if Nigel enters him in the Champion Hurdle again for all that he would run a good race, pure and simple. The same comment applies here because the old warrior simply refuses to down tools, even when the odds are stacked against him.  Back to the champion hurdler now, because his victory in the ‘Fighting Fifth’ at Newcastle showed that last year’s results where no flash in the pan and whatever ‘Ireland’ sends over in March, I expect Buveur D’Air to repel all challengers at this stage of the season.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period.  11 of the last 18 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Christmas Hurdle:

1/3--Old Guard (good)

3/6--The New One (2 x good to soft & good)

3.05: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals of the King George, even taking into account that the vintage was not represented two years ago.  FOX NORTON was among just three relevant entries last week and although all three runners have stood their ground, only Colin Tizzard’s raider can be given a chance of lowering the colours of more fancied runners in the contest.   I have to admit that I thought we had seen the best of BRISTOL DE MAIN in his novice days before his resurgence this term when he has simply blown his rivals away.  It’s difficult to tell just how soft the ground will be writing this column over 50 hours in advance of the race but be assured, connections be welcoming every drop of rain between now and flag fall, especially on one of the quickest drying courses in the land.  Providing that it is at least good to soft on all parts of the track, Nigel’s raider will give MIGHT BITE a real race and 4/1 at the time of writing looks too big from my viewpoint, despite the unknown ground factor.  MIGHT BITE is a talented individual and no mistake and last year’s leading novice made short work of the opposition when landing a Listed event at Sandown on his reappearance.  It would going over the top to suggest that THISTLECRACK was the forgotten horse in the contest but he has questions to answer now and from that perspective, his odds fail to attract my attention.
Favourite factor: Although 11 favourites have won the King George during the last 19 years, seven of the other 11 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (2011) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste both let the side down in 2013.

Course winners in the 'King George':

1/2--Double Shuffle (good)

1/2--Might Bite (good)

3/4--Tea For Two (2 x good to soft & soft)

1/1--Thistlecrack (good)

1/1--Whisper (good)

3.40: Nine of the last eleven winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (TAKE TO HEART – set to carry 11-4) has secured three of the last eleven contests. This appears to be the one race on the card that could give bookmakers some breathing space, given that their ledgers (I'm showing my age) will be dominated by so few horses in the previous events on the card.  That said, four-year-olds have won the last four contests though in the circumstances, can you believe that just one of the 26 penultimate stage entries was a four-year-old.  It’s as though trainers want bookmakers to earn a great living, especially as the relevant vintage represented has not been declared for the gig!  The weight trends suggest that it would be churlish to ignore the Placepot claims of DASHING OSCAR, and CONNETABLE alongside Take To Heart.  If the weight trend goes ‘belly up’ this time around, I’m adding JALEO into the mix who would have run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap but for Alex Ferguson’s useful claim.  I sincerely hope that you back lots of winners over the Christmas period and that you are enjoying the festivities thus far.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 13 favourites have won, whilst eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the finale:

2/2--Our Kaempfer (2 x good to soft)

1/2--Doesyourdogbite (good)

1/3--Mr Fickle (good)

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

EVERY TRAINER LISTED with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/18 – loss of 5 points) – 226/888 - +72

5—Gary Moore (0/12) – 28/393 – loss of 167

5—Colin Tizzard (1/3 +8) – 20/125 +48

4—Paul Nicholls (6/12 – loss of 1 point) – 11/6/515 – loss of 55

4—Dan Skelton (0/12) – 8/96 – loss of 69

3—Harry Fry (2/6 – Slight profit) – 12/61 – loss of 12

3—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 7) – 75/475 – loss of 82

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 +1) – 46/326 – loss of 51

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2) – 27/180 – loss of 29

2—Ben Pauling (1/3 +2) – 5/31 – loss of 12

1—Peter Bowen (1/2 +5) – 8/57 – loss of 16

1—Ben Case (0/1) – 1/33 – loss of 28

1—Mick Channon (First runner this season) – 7/36 +12

1—Tom George (1/4 – Slight profit) – 24/147 +18

1—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 5/98 – loss of 68

1—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 9/73 +25)

1—Anthony Honeyball (First runner this season) – 0/8

1—Charlie Longsdon (0/5) – 11/101 – loss of 16

1—Phil Middleton (1/1 +10) – 1/10 +1

1—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 5/116 – loss of 61

1—Jonjo O’Neill (1/8 – loss of 4 points) – 32/268 – loss of 125

1—Harry Whittington (1/4 +8) – 4/16 +11

1—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight loss) – 11/89 +3

1—Nick Williams (0/1) 0 7/44 – loss of 3

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 placed

Huntingdon: £73.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £192.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £66.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £307.10 – 5 favourites (1 void) – 3 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £810.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £3,021.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th December

NEWBURY - DECEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £33.70 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Style De Garde) & 3 (Doctor Bartolo)

Leg 2 (1.00): 6 (Doux Pretender), 16 (Potterman) & 14 (Pacific De Baune)

Leg 3 (1.30): 3 (Baden), 1 (Cosmos Des Obeaux) & 6 (Holbrook Park)

Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (Happy Diva), 5 (Tacenda) & 3 (Ms Parfois)

Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Bally Gilbert), 1 (Ramonex) & 2 (Red Riverman)

Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Melrose Boy) & 10 (Warthog)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.30: Nicky Henderson has won this opening event on two occasions during the last nine years and with STYLE DE GARDE having been declared by the local Seven Barrows maestro, the ratio looks set to improve this afternoon.  Solid as a rock at even money on almost every board at the time of writing, connections might have most to worry about from DOCTOR BARTOLO who ran well enough on debut at Wetherby to suggest that he would have been a short priced favourite here has Nicky declined the gig.   Today’s stats at the foot of the column offer not only the seasonal ratios here at Newbury, but also the career figures for every trainer who has two or more runners on the card.  We can deduce that during his lifetime as a trainer, Nicky boasts a 20% per cent ratio via 218 winners, compared to the relevant stats of Alan King (Doctor Bartolo) whose figures stand at 11% via 60 gold medallists.  Nicky might again have the edge in the first race on the card.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 15 contests, with the other gold medallists scoring at 25/1-16/1-7/1-7/1.  13 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

1.00: Nicky Henderson has won five of the last 16 renewals (without being represented every year by any means) whereby DOUX PRETENDER is the first name on the team sheet.  Nicky’s four-year-old raider ran well enough on debut at Huntingdon last season (despite being a beaten favourites) to suggest that a small race could be there for the taking though once again, it is Alan King who stands in his way as the Wiltshire based handler has declared POTTERMAN, with this pair also expected to fight out the finish in much the same way as their raiders in the opening event.  That said, Nicky throws a potential spanner in the works having also entered PACIFIC DE BAUNE who could upset the applecart in a race which should not prove difficult to win, certainly compared to the first event on the card.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside two joint favourites.  15 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions.

1.30: The last nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum weight of eleven stones with only Abbreviate potentially missing out this year via a jockey claim.  That still leave six runners to assess in this competitive ‘short field’ event, with my short list concentrating on BADEN, COSMOS DES OBEAUX and HOLBROOKE PARK.  Six-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby the trio is listed in order of preference. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 11 favourites (four winners) have claimed Placepot positions to date.

 

2.05: HAPPY DIVA has finished second in four of her six subsequent assignments after securing back-to-back victories on good to soft ground, whereby Kerry Lee’s six-year-old deserves to win another contest.  Anthony Honeyball has had his team in sparkling form for some time now and the trainer has placed TACENDA to good effect here and it’s worth noting that both of these horses were backed overnight with the majority of firms.    Stable companion MS PARFOIS is added into the Placepot equation in a typically fascinating short field contest at Newbury. Two Swallows receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

2.40:  Ben Pauling just missed out in my Placepot permutation in the previous event on the card, though inmate BALLY GILBERT finds his way into my mix in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, given his third placed effort at Sandown twelve days ago.  A similar performance will take the Stowaway gelding very close here I’ll wager, with RAMONEX and RED RIVERMAN expected to offer challenges at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Newbury programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Exmoor Mist (soft)

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1/4—Whispering Harry (heavy)

 

3.15: Five-year-olds have landed nine renewals during the last 15 years whilst vintage representatives have secured 15 of the last 24 available Placepot positions for good measure.  The pick of this year's five vintage representatives should prove to be MELRIOSE BOY and WARTHOG.  Both horses are the only runners on the card respectively for Harry Fry and David Pipe.  Harry secured the prize two years ago, albeit his 4/6 favourite was turned over last year when securing the silver medal.  Nicky Henderson’s raider Mr Whipped is feared most.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 15 renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, 10 winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less, though I should point out that last year’s gold medallist scored at 25/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/16 – loss of 2 points) – 218/1087 – loss of 105

6—Alan King (0/10) – 60/547 – loss of 170 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/7 – Slight loss) – 9/32 +2

3—Colin Tizzard (2/9 – Slight profit) – 24/199 – loss of 43

2—Kim Bailey—(First runners this season) – 22/161 – loss of 132

2—Vic DFartnall (First runners this season) – 12/67 +7

2—Oliver Greenall (First runners this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 5/41 – loss of 15

2—Gary Moore (0/3) – 22/358 – loss of 58

2—Seamus Mullins (First runners this season) – 10/159 +20

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/5 – loss of 3 points) – 7/46 +16

2—Oliver Sherwood (1/5 +8) – 61/323 +3

2—Jamie Snowden (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 19

2—Bill Turner (First runners this season) – 0/3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/9) – 65/600 – loss of 105

2—Evan Williams (0/2) – 7/91 – loss of 13

2—Nick Williams (0/1) – 15/98 +9

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

79 declared runners