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Stat of the Day, 15th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.15 Ffos Las : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 7/1 (Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, never able to challenge, weakened closing stages)

Wednessday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pot Luck 3/1 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 2yr old filly trained by Andrew Balding, whose runners are in fine form right now (wish I was!), notching up 8 winners from 19 (42.1% SR) over the last 7 days.

More long-term, Andrew's runners making their second start in a handicap are 40 from 229 (17.5% SR) for 99.9pts (+43.6% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these runners include...

  • June-October : 24/143 (16.8%) for 114pts (+79.7%)
  • 7f/1m : 13/76 (17.1%) for 62.8pts (+82.7%)
  • females : 13/66 (19.7%) for 52.8pts (+80%)
  • in 2018 : 10/36 (27.8%) for 69.5pts (+192.9%)
  • Class 6 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 2.9pts (+8.6%)
  • at Kempton : 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.4pts (+68%)

...AND... females at 7f/1m in June-October = 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 53.9pts (+359.6% ROI) including 2 wins from 3 this year so far.

Joshua Bryan takes the ride today and takes 3lbs off our girl's back with his claim and Andrew Balding + A/W handicaps + 3lb claimers = 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 26.3pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including of relevance today...

  • on Polytrack : 13/48 (27.1%) for 14.5pts (+30.1%)
  • over 7f to 8.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%)
  • Sub-5/1 shots are 11/25 (44%) for 19pts (+76%)
  • and here at Kempton : 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.4pts (+138.5%)

...AND...at odds shorter than 5/1 on Polytrack over 7f to 8.5f = 6/10 (60% SR) for 14.87pts (+148.7% ROI) with one winner from two here at Kempton showing 3.75pts profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pot Luck 3/1 BOGa price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.00 Pontefract :Quoteline Direct @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up behind, headway on inside over 3f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, kept on to win by four lengths)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.55 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is having just his third handicap run today, having made the frame in both previous efforts.

He was a runner-up on hcp debut in mid-April despite (a) being off track for 144 days and (b) being stepped up from 6f to 1m for the first time, yet was only beaten by 0.75 lengths with the horse in 3rd, 4th and 6th all having gone on to win since.

Then 42 days later (49 days ago), he broke his duck with a win here at Kempton in this grade over course and distance, comfortably steered home to a 4 lengths success by today's jockey Adam Kirby who was riding him for the first time.

He is trained by Emma Owen, who might not be the most famous of trainers, nor does she have a huge string of horses to work with. She's also not an obvious starting point for an SotD selection as since the start of 2016, her runners have only won 9 of 184 (4.9% SR) for a loss of 71.6% (-38.9% ROI), but as ever we're not advocating blindly following a trainer, we're looking for an angle that suggests a clear MO.

And closer inspection of Emma's numbers highlights something to me, because of her 9/184 record, she's 8/63 (12.7% SR) for 5.64pts (+8.95% ROI) here at Kempton and whilst those SR & ROI figures aren't really up to SotD standard, they are certainly out of the norm for Emma's overall profile and as such are worth examining.

From that 8/63 course stat, handicappers are 8/56 (14.3% SR) for 12.64pts (+22.6% ROI) and suddenly we have something interesting to work from. Further analysis of these 56 Kempton handicappers shows...

  • 8 winners from 52 (15.4%) for 16.64pts (+32%) from male runners
  • 8 winners from 50 (16%) for 18.64pts (+37.3%) competing for prizes less than £4k
  • 8 winners from 44 (18.2%) for 24.64pts (+56%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 7 winners from 37 (18.9%) for 26.28pts (+71%) at Classes 5 & 6
  • 6 winners from 25 (24%) for 30.9pts (+123.6%) after a break of 16 to 60 days
  • 5 winners from 19 (26.3%) for 35.5pts (+186.7%) off marks (OR) of 61 to 75
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 19.34pts (+276.3%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 19.27pts (+385.4%) ridden by Adam Kirby
  • and 2 winners from 5 (40%) for 14.6pts (+292%) who also won last time out

I accept/appreciate that the 56 runners aren't the biggest sample size, but the numbers above do suggest that this is the kind of race Emma's horses do best in and from the above...Class 5/6 males racing over 6f to 1m for less than £4k prize money off a break of 6 to 60 days are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 40.3pts (+175.1% ROI) and these include...

  • off marks of 61-75 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 40.48pts (+289.1%)
  • sub 5/1 shots : 4/5 (80%) for 15.98pts (+319.6%)
  • under Adam Kirby : 3/4 (75%) for 20.27pts (+506.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 16.6pts (+553.3%)

And finally, as it looks like our pick will go off as favourite today and we know that backing favs can be a costly procedure, it's worth knowing that since 2011 that Adam Kirby is 169/463 (36.5% SR) for 82.8pts (+17.9% ROI) on Class 6 favourites, winning 22 of 54 (40.7%) for 23.5pts (+43.5%) over a 1m trip!

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOGwhich was widely (over a dozen firms) available at 1.20am on Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 82.7% units went through – 5/1 – 11/4* - 10/3

Race 2: 15.9% of the remaining units when through – 2/1* - 7/2 – 7/1

Race 3: 20.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 43.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 3/1 (15/8)

Race 5: 67.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 3/1* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.4% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3 & 13/2 (2/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Forseti), 2 (Dombra) & 1 (Dirty Rascal)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Edged Out), 5 (Silverrica) & 3 (Rio Ronaldo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (It’s the Only Way), 2 (Oberyn Martell) & 8 (Curfewed)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Big Tour), 3 (Valcartier) & 7 (Aquarium)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Drill) & 5 (Mekong)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Okool) & 2 (Mistress Quickly)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: ‘Team Hannon’ have won three of the last nine renewals of this opening event and in DIRTY RASCAL, Richard has declared a representative which has already shown a fair amount of potential.  This additional furlong should suit and if successful, it will be worth looking for Dunkerron’s entry over the course of the weekend, with Alan King’s Windsor winner (Dirty Rascal finished second) holding three entries on Saturday/Monday at the time of writing.  Richard Hannon has also offered the green light to his Intikhab newcomer Motafaawit which complicates matters to a fashion, though Jim Crowley’s mount is proving easy to back as I pen this column. Connections thought that DOMBRA could be a Royal Ascot juvenile in the making whereby this far lesser test should ensure a Placepot position at the very least. Similar comments could also apply to FORSETI I guess, especially as he was a 33/1 chance at the first time of asking when like Dombra, he finished a promising fourth with a juvenile success probably there for the taking at the right level.

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Favourite factor: 13 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: EDGED OUT was due to contest this race last year but was withdrawn on account of the yielding conditions.  There will not be a repeat of that scenario twelve months on however with the sun beating down on this green and pleasant land for the foreseeable future.  It’s unusual for the west to create the highest temperature during a heatwave but that was the case yesterday when Wales recorded the highest reading at over thirty degrees. Back to the sport on offer and with EDGED OUT being a previous course and distance winner who is running off a sixteen ounce lower mark today, we can presume that Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare will be in the thick of things at the business end of proceedings.  SILVERICCA cannot be ignored either, despite the fact that that soft ground would have played to her strengths.  The fact remains however, that John Egan’s mount won this event two years ago when carrying an additional five pounds whereby you can detect that her Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see.  That all said, RIO RONALDO also boasts obvious claims from further up the handicap following a fine Sandown effort the last day.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have snared Placepot positions via ten renewals to date, statistics which include five (7/2, 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 & 2/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

1/4—Silverrica (soft)

 

3.10: Messers Hannon (IT’S THE ONLY WAY & SIRINAPHA) & Channon (CURFEWED) have equally shared four of the last six contests between them, though their respective raiders face a decent rival in OBERYN MARTELL in an interesting event.  Mick won the race last year with a 25/1 newcomer whereby the 16/1 quote this morning for Curfewed is not likely to throw yours truly off the scent as the morning wears on.  IT’S THE ONLY WAY has already proved his durability and looks sure to go very close again.  Rossa Ryan’s mount hails from Lilbourne Lad stock which pleases the Hannon team no end with their former inmate having represented the stable to great effect a few years ago.  Throw Queen Shaahd into the mix and we have cracking two-year-old race to witness.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.  12 of the 16 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 25/1-13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other four contests.

 

3.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen renewals of this contest whilst ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. There are no relevant vintage raider in the field this time around, whilst BIG TOUR and VALCARTIER make most appeal from those towards the top of the handicap.  AQUARIUM could out run his double figure price, albeit from well below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Mr Top Hat (heavy)

1/1—Power Of Darkness (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the seventeen winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include seven of the last eleven gold medallists. Luca Cumani has only saddled one horse during the last nine days (beaten a short head), whilst the popular trainer was only conspicuous by his absence at Royal Ascot this year.  I’m hoping that DRILL can show the way forward this afternoon because as sure as night follows day, Luca will come roaring back to form any time soon and it’s worth noting that his number of runners look set to increase over the next few days according to the entries list.  Connections might have most to fear from MEKONG who looks a tad over the odds at 11/2 in a place as I head towards the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 12 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged four years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in this Bibury Cup event:

1/1—Burgonet (good to firm)

 

4.40: The last eleven winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the grain as the two horses I fancy most here are OKOOL and MISTRESS QUICKLY.  That said, I’m offering the pair from a Placepot perspective which should prove successful as long as at least eight of the nine declarations face the starter.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders (via twelve renewals) to date have claimed Placepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Air Squadron (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Fitzwilly (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £197.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 29.9% units went through – 5/1 – 33/1 – 17/2 (11/4)

Race 2: 21.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 11/2 (8/13)

Race 3: 57.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 13/2

Race 4: 47.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 5: 46.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 28/1

Race 6: 45.8% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 9/2 – 14/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 3 (Berlios), 2 (Vallarta) & 7 (Merdon Castle)

Leg 2 (6.30): 3 (March For Men) & 4 (Mr Diamond)

Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Rosemay), 6 (Titus Bolt) & 5 (Granite City Doc)

Leg 4 (7.30): 3 (Mr Wagyu) & 6 (Cameo Star)

Leg 5 (8.00): 3 (Natajack), 7 (Colur Contrast) & 4 (Haymarket)

Leg 6 (8.30): 1 (Afandem) & 3 (Logi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.00: Although representing no value for money whatsoever, it’s difficult to ignore the claims of BERLIOS, especially from a Placepot perspective whilst others to consider in this amateur rider event (careful where you tread) include VALLARTA and MERDON CASTLE.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last decade, though other gold medallists included those returned at 40/1, 20/1 12/1 & 10/1.  That said, five of the last six market leaders secured Placepot positions.

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Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

2/3—Dodgy Bob (good to firm & soft)

1/5—Mitchum (soft)

1/6—Picks Pinta (good to firm)

1/5—Gaelic Wizard (good to firm)

 

6.30: Diviner has at least won a race from three assignments thus far but it would be disappointing in the extreme if either MARCH FOR MEN and/or MR DIAMOND failed to finish ahead of Mark Johnston’s Wolverhampton scorer who has subsequently disappointed.  The relevant newcomers hail from the powerful yards of Tom Dascombe and Richard Fahey respectively and connections would be miffed to say the least if their youngsters failed to become involved in the finish of such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 favourite failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

7.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones which definitely brings the likes of TITUS BOLT and GRANITE CITY DOC into the equation.  There has been overnight support for ROSEMAY however which adds interest to proceedings.  Ian Jardine’s Mayson filly has been well placed by the trainer and but for the negative weight trend in place, Joe Fanning’s mount would be a strong selection.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite via seven renewals to date.  That said, six of the nine market leaders secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Falcon’s Fire (soft)

 

7.30: There will be worse outsiders on the card than Zumurud I’ll wager, one of five raiders on the card for Rebecca Bastiman whose ratio at the track this year stands at 3/9, stats which have produced a level stake profit thus far.  That all said, MR WAGYU commands plenty of respect, whilst the Placepot chance for CAMEO STAR is also there for all to see.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

8.00: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which eliminate three horses from the field from my perspective if we take potential jockey ‘allowances’ into consideration.  At various positions in the market this morning, the trio which make most appeal consists of NATAJACK, COLOUR CONTRAST and HAYMARKET.

Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have secured five of the seven renewals thus far, with favourites coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Six of the eight favourites finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/8—Haymarket (good)

1/14—Rioja Day (good to soft)

 

8.30: Whilst I bypassed one of Mark Johnston’s horses (Diviner) with a supposedly obvious chance earlier on the card, I will not desert Mark’s representative AFANDEM in this grade/company, especially with the Vale Of York gelding having attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the hat trick seeker LOGI.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Hamilton card.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Logi (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Zylan (good to firm)

7/33—Economic Crisis (3 x good to soft – 2 x soft – good & heavy)

5/21—Alexandrakollantai (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft – heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 6th June

HAMILTON – JUNE 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £88.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.1% units went through – 11/8* (Win only)

Race 2: 95.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/4 & 11/8*

Race 3: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 & 12/1 (11/10)

Race 4: 25.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 7/2 (4/5)

Race 5: 65.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 9/2 -11/4*

Race 6: 35.8% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Hamiton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 9 (Princes Des Sables) & 1 (Axel Jacklin)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Jonboy) & 11 (Rotherhithe)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Sunrize), 2 (Kings Gold) & 6 (Al Hawraa)

Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Sir Dancealot) & 3 (Laugh A MInute)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Pioneering), 9 (Chinese Spirit) & 8 (Rock N Rolla)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Inexes), 1 (Short Work) & 7 (Start Time)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: I tend to shy away from maidens who have run four times when on offer at skinny prices and whilst Broken Spear will understandably attract thousands of Placepot units, Tony Coyle’s Pastoral Pursuits gelding wouldn’t be winning with my money riding on his back.  Kevin Ryan has saddled 25 juvenile winners down the years at this venue, securing 15 points of level stake profits into the bargain.  PRINCES DES SABLES in entered into the mix accordingly, whilst Mark Johnston’s raider AXEL JACKLIN will attract plenty of interest as usual.  Keith Dalgleish saddled the first winner of the contest twelve months ago but his Choisir filly was not making her debut, as opposed to Keith’s inmate Theatre Of War this time around.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: ROTHERHITHE hinted at becoming a bit of a madam having refused to go into the stalls at the first time of asking this year.  Her three silver medal efforts on her first year at school suggested that there was always a race like this in her, though warning signs are flashing now. Anyone fancying the Finjaan filly should have their fingers on the online button ready to offer the green light once she goes into the gate, though probably not before that scenario has ensued.  JONBOY is the call accordingly, with David Barron’s Delegator colt having made up plenty of late ground after being run off his feet early doors at this venue on his seasonal bow.  This additional (sixth) furlong is what the doctor was ordering long before the finish of that race four weeks ago.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Hamilton card.

 

3.00: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared the four renewals, with the younger set looking to hold the edge this time around.  KINGS GOLD and AL HAWRAA look the safest options at the time of writing, though a four-year-old is grabbing my attention as dawn begins to break over Bristol this morning.  SUNRIZE represents David O’Meara and with money coming in for David’s Azamour gelding overnight which adds weight to his chance in this grade/company.  David is very much a ‘London busses trainer’ whose winners tend to come packed together from my observations in recent years whereby another success here would come as no surprise, especially as three of David’s last six runners have obliged.

Favourite factor: We still await the first favourite to score after four renewals thus far. Only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Al Hawraa (good to soft)

 

3.30: On the face of things, SIR DANCEALOT would appear to have a few lengths in hand over LAUGH A MINUTE, with David Elsworth’s four-year-old Sir Prancealot gelding standing ten pounds clear of LAUGH A MINUTE according to the official assessor, though only having to give eight pounds away on this occasion.  That however does not take into account the definite scope for improvement for Roger Varian’s LAUGH A MINUTE which makes a mockery of the trade press quote this morning which suggests that Andrea Atzeni’s mount is “fully exposed” which defies belief to a fashion.  If LAUGH A MINUTE is fully exposed with all of four (and a tad) miles on his racing clock, God knows what the person who made the comment would make of yours truly attempting to make a living with a zimmer frame never far from my reach!  With sire Mayson not reaching his peak until racing as a four-year-old, the comment should be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt it deserves at this moment in time.  I have every respect for eleven time winner Kimberella but his Scottish gigs have earned just two bronze medals via seven assignments thus far, albeit this is his first run at Hamilton.

Favourite factor: This Class 2 Conditions event is another new race on the Hamilton Programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/1—Classic Seniority (good)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds came to the gig on a four timer last year (via as many renewals), when the two vintage representatives had to settle for silver and bronze medals behind the five-year-old winner. A trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field accordingly, namely PIONEERING (another David O’Meara raider with each way claims on the card), CHINESE SPIRIT (trainer back among the winners now) and ROCK N ROLLA who has dropped to a favourable mark, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: We still await the first favourite to score after four renewals thus far. Only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Zabeel Star (good to firm)

 

4.30: INEXES comes to the party on a hat trick and with 11/4 offered across the board for Marjorie Fife’s inmate, the 27% probability factor set by layers looks about right.  SHORT WORK and START TIME are the potential party poopers from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Although two of the favourites claimed Placepot positions in the four renewals to date, we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Inexes (good to firm & soft)

2/8—Khelman (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

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Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th May

WINDSOR – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £13.40 (5 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced —meeting abandoned after four races due to unsafe ground)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.4% units went through – 5/1 – 17/2 – 7/2 (9/4)

Race 2: 74.9% of the remaining units when through – 6/4* - 10/3 – 16/1

Race 3: 73.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 7/2 – 14/1

Race 4: 37.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 7/2** - 6/1 (7/2**)

Race 5: Abandoned

Race 6: Abandoned

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 2 (Manor Park) & 7 (Wild West Hero)

Leg 2 (5.50): 1 (Big Boots) & 2 (James Watt)

Leg 3 (6.20): 1 (Silent Echo), 3 (Udontdodou) & 5 (Open Wide)

Leg 4 (6.50): 7 (Via Via), 6 (Soveriegn Debt) & 5 (Oh This Is Us)

Leg 5 (7.20): 4 (Desert Path), 8 (Nautical Mile) & 11 (Arabian Fairytale)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Dream Machine), 12 (Hawridge Glory) & 11 (Essenaitch)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

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  • Special comment last year: I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).
  • Results? Fastnet Spin was beaten at 100/1 but Englishman won at 33/1. That said, Fastnet Spin won two races later in the year, both on heavy ground.  Via Via (6.50) is my idea of the best ‘outsider’ on the card tonight.

 

5.20: Some of the top flat trainers are represented here, yet it could be dual purpose trainer Alan King that grabs the swag having declared MANOR PARK who has received some overnight support.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute does not raid this racecourse with too many juveniles, whereby WILD WEST HERO is an interesting contender, particularly as Michael won the race six years ago with Rye House who went on two land a couple of decent prizes down the line.  Airmax and The Lincoln Lawyer are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eight market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events when returned at 9/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 6/4.

 

5.50: The two winners in the field could dominate at the business end of the contest with BIG BOOTS expected to get the better of JAMES WATT, despite Mick Channon’s Society Rock colt having to give three pounds to the projected market leader.  The remaining eight contenders all receive plenty of weight but might have to be quite talented to get the better of this pair who both impressed at the first time of asking.  Both horses scored at ‘secondary courses’ (Bath and Brighton respectively) but there was plenty to like about their respective victories.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural event was won by the 11/10 favourite.

 

6.20: I cannot pretend that I have anything for you to follow up last year’s success, though Cartographer should go well at an each way price with trainer Martyn Meade surely desperate to earn some compensation for the heavy defeat of Eminent at Chester last week.  More logical winners might include SILENT ECHO and UDONTDODOU however, whilst OPEN WIDE was touch off by Englishman here last week who recorded another big priced success at Windsor at 20/1.

Favourite factor: Englishman won the inaugural event at 33/1 for yours truly when beating one of the two 7/2 joint favourites in a photo finish twelve months ago.  Detectives are still out searching for the other market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

1/2—Udontdodou (good)

1/4—Open Wide (good to firm)

1/4—Little Palaver (good to firm)

 

6.50: 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) looks too big about VIA VIA who has been backed down to single figures with some firms at the time of writing.  James Tate’s raider has a bit to find on the form book but this stable tends to strike when the money is down, albeit usually at much shorter prices.  SOVEREIGN DEBT is an interesting northern raider from Ruth Carr’s yard which has been going well this spring.  ‘Team Hannon’ have snared this prize three times in recent years whereby the chance of OH THIS IS US is respected.  Stable companion Khafoo Shememi’s penalty will probably weigh him down this time around.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight marker leading finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners at 15/8, 5/4, 10/11 & 4/6.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Arod (good)

 

7.20: What looks a minefield on paper has been reduced to a match if you believe what you can witness via the exchanges this morning.  We are not talking a great deal of money here, but the ‘pound notes’ that have been in circulation have only centred on DESERT PATH and NAUTICAL MILE, maybe with a few Euros thrown in for good measure.  Any support for Clive Cox’s filly ARABIAN FAIRYTALE later in the day should be heeded.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.50: If the ground does not dry out too much, dual good to soft course winner ESSENAITCH would enter the Placepot mix, albeit I slightly prefer DREAM MACHINE and HAWRIDGE GLORY.  Receiving weight from three rivals here, DREAM MACHINE was a model of consistency for Michael Bell and his team last year and having won at the first time of asking last term, Neil Mulholland’s recruit looks sure to be in the thick of things twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Another new contest to close out Windsor’s Placepot programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/12—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th May

BATH – MAY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £191.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.3% units went through – 8/1 – 20/1 – 7/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 2: 44.3% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 4/1 – 5/1 (11/4)

Race 3: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* & 16/1

Race 4: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 5: 39.4% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 16.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 & 12/1 (11/8)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Karalini) & 10 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Prominna), 6 (Burauq) & 10 (Black Truffle)

Leg 3 (3.25): 5 (Spirit Of Zebedee), 10 (Divine Call) & 6 (Dreams Of Glory)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Barbill) & 8 (Cloud Seeding)

Leg 5 (4.35): 4 (Tricksy Spirit), 2 (Rock Of Estonia) & 9 (Aquadabra)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Cent Flying) & 3 (Glamorous Rocket)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • I hope you had part of the Placepot dividend yesterday, given that we had 40p of the £512.10 dividend = a return of £216.84 – following a ‘successful pot’ at Newmarket the previous day.

 

2.15: Boasting a ratio of 7/9 here at Bath this season, Mick Channon will be coming to one of his ‘local’ tracks in confident mode and KARALINI is the only horse in the contest that punters want to know at the time of writing.  SIGNORA CABELLO is the mount of Silvestre De Sousa who has ridden three winners for John Quinn whereby the chance for this long distance traveller is respected.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Bath with which to open proceedings.

 

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2.50: Tony Carrol has had his runners in good form for some time now and though good to soft was registered when scoring here at Bath, George Downing could be in the thick of this at the business end of proceedings aboard this Proclamation gelding who is a four time gold medallist.  Others for the melting pot include BURAUQ and BLACK TRUFFLE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Langham Vale (good to soft)

1/4—Prominna (good to soft)

2/14—Burauq (good to soft & good to firm)

1/8—Spellmaker (firm)

 

3.25: Silvestre takes his second ride for John Quinn and in a weak contest, SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE can surely reach the frame in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from the likes of DIVINE CALL and DREAMS OF GLORY.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Last year’s inaugural 7/2 joint favourites both finished out of the frame.

Bath record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/6—Compton Prince (2 x good to firm & firm)

5/27—Dreams Of Glory (2 x good to firm – 2 x firm – good)

2/11—Divine Call (good & good to soft)

 

4.00: Mick Channon saddles the second of his three runners on the card and BARBILL cannot be excluded from the mix given Mick’s record at the track this term.  At the prices on offer, Ginger Nut could be worth opposing whereby CLOUD SEEDING is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite finished well down the field in which horses sent off at 20/1-12/1-14/1 filled the frame, a result which had a great influence of the great Placepot dividend of £2,037.80.  Last year’s race went to plan for supporters of the 3/10 market leader.

 

4.35: There will be worse outsiders on the card than AQUADBRA I’ll wager who has her first run for Christopher Mason, having been previously stabled at Mick Channon’s yard.  Talking of Mick, his third and final contender at the meeting is TRICKSY SPIRIT, whilst ROCK OF ESTONIA (winner on this card twelve months ago) completes my trio against the remaining six declarations.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite last year finished nearer last than first (sixth of eight).

Bath record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Rock On Estonia (firm)

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

5.10: CENT FLYING looks to be something of a banker in the lucky last (from a Placepot perspective), with GLAMOROUS ROCKET marginally preferred to Inuk as the main threat.

Bath record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cent Flying (good)

 

Bath record of course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 5.45:

1/3—King Crimson (good to soft)

1/20—Swendab (good to firm)

3/21—Jaganory (firm – good to soft – soft)

4/17—Milly Jones (4 x firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 1st May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 1 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £39.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.7% units went through – 7/2 – 20/1 – 5/2*

Race 2: 32.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/2 – 4/1 – 25/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 68.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 8/1 – 6/1

Race 4: 38.8% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 3/1 (5/4)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 3/1* - 7/2

Race 6: 58.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Red Handed), 5 (Spell) & 2 (Delft Dancer)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mushtaq) & 5 (Giovanni)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Cosmopoltan Queen) & 6 (Lady Alavesa)

Leg 4 (3.35): 2 (Seduce Me), 7 (Flying Pandora) & 4 (Mama Africa)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Double Reflection), 1 (Amazing Michelle) & 5 (Ann Without An E)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Slunovrat) & 3 (Thistimenextyear)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: Mick Channon can do little wrong at present having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect and having trained last year’s favourite for the contest with a horse which was making its third appearance (see details below), Mick goes to war with his Sixties Icon newcomer RED HANDED this time around.  Richard Hannon has won with two of his eight juvenile runners this season, though his entry SPELL is still in a race at Ascot on Wednesday as I pen this column.  Of the experienced runners in the field, DELFT DANCER is preferred to Chitra.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Mick Channon trained) favourite snared a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort.  Mick’s raider (Aquadabra) went on the win one of its eleven subsequent races at the time of writing.

 

2.30: Although MUSHTAQ is odds on right across the board with the layers in the dead of night, 11/8+ is freely available on the exchanges which dilutes enthusiasm to a fashion. Richard Hannon’s Zoffany gelding scored impressively over six furlongs on (all weather) seasonal debut at just the second time of asking and the breeding suggests that this hike up to a mile should pose few (if any) problems.  There is no move for Eledeed at the time of writing, whereby I feel duty bound to offer up GIOVANNI as the main threat to the selection whose trainer is currently enjoying a 29% strike rate via his last seven winners.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

3.00: There are two runners that fit the ‘bet to nothing’ profile here from an each way angle, namely COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN and LADY ALAVESA. The pair is listed in order of preference, despite the fact that Gay Kelleway’s latter named raider has already had a (decent) run this season under her belt.  COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN has more potential from my viewpoint and it will interesting to see if David Elsworth has his Dubawi filly 95% fit, which might be all that is required to land the prize in this grade/company.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Last Enchantment, though Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider fails to offer value for money at around the 9/4 mark this morning according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the programme.

 

3.35: Karl Burke’s runners have been a little in and out thus far since the turf season opened (in spluttered fashion) but that said, four of his last five runners have reached the frame (exact science) at 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 22/5 which suggests that SEDUCE ME can give investors a decent run for their collective monies, especially as Karl’s Dutch Art filly has attracted support overnight.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of FLYING PANDORA and MAMA AFRICA at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race to assess on the card.

 

4.05: The general and exchange markets are giving no clues away in this trappy looking contest at the time of writing and my only advice is to possibly keep DOUBLE REFLECTION, AMAZING MICHELLE and ANN WITHOUT AN E on the right side of the mix as you plan today’s wagers, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The latter named pair could outrun their double figure prices (both hail from in form yards with half decent soft ground form in the past), whilst DOUBLE REFLECTION is another Karl Burke runner on the card to consider, especially if Seduce Me has run well in the previous race.  Course winner APACHE BLAZE is another to consider whilst waiting for the kettle to boil this morning.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished in the frame (including a 4/9 chance) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Apache Blaze (good to soft)

 

4.35: Nine of the fourteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum burden of nine stones, as did all five (16/1-3/1-11/4-2/1-5/4) winners of the contest thus far.  This hardly represents an extended trend I know though with little else to work with, my short listed duo against the other three runners hail from the top of the handicap, namely SLUNOVRAT and THISTIMENEXTYEAR.

Favourite factor:  Three of the five favourites claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 5/4.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Slunovrat (good)

 

Record of course winners in the seventh (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.05:

1/1—Samovar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th April

BEVERLEY – APRIL 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £606.57 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 86.0% of the remaining units when through – 4/9* - 50/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 57.9% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 4: 25.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 18/1 – 14/1 (10/3)

Race 5: 40.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 5/1 – 8/1 (2 x 9/2**)

Race 6: 74.7% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 6/4*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Acclaim The Nation), 14 (Crosse Fire) & 15 (Cameo Star)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Jensue), 11 (Shumookhi) & 12 (Signora Cabello)

Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Shazzab) & 2 (Exhort)

Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Song Of Summer), 10 (Onefootinparadise) & 2 (Scenic River)

Leg 5 (3.45): 5 (Rita’s Man), 1 (Liquid Gold) & 8 (Bollin Ted)

Leg 6 (4.20): 8 (Inflexiaball) & 5 (Vigee Le Brun)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.30: The last nine winners have carried nine stones or more to victory, though the stat is not all that impressive as all bar one of the fifteen runners this time around qualify via the weight trend.  You’ll note that one runner has already defected whereby we ‘Potters’ are denied a fourth place, by way of a change! Upwards and onward by suggesting that ACCLAIM THE NATION, CROSSE FIRE and CAMEO STAR should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Grandad’s World.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have prevailed, whilst eight of the last twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  All twelve winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 8/1.

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Record of the five course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Jacob’s Pillow (good to firm)

1/2—Acclaim The Nation (good to soft)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/1—Cameo Star (good to firm)

2/9—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

 

2.00: Of the horses I short listed overnight, only JENSUE has remained ‘in positive mode’ on the exchanges, with the likes of SHUMOOKHI and SIGNORA CABELLO proving easy to back.  It’s bad enough trying to fathom between two or more Richard Fahey horses in any race, but particularly so in an event for juveniles!  Either way, Piccothepack and Immokolee are not going to offer value for money anyway (particularly from a Placepot perspective) so I will stick to my original thoughts.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed at odds of 4/9 and Evens to date.

 

2.35: I talked about two runners in a race in the previous event for Richard Fahey as usually proving to be a tough ask and this race is no different, even though his horses are split at either end of the market at the time of writing.  To make matters worse, there was more interest is Richard’s outsider SHAZZAB than for EXHORT overnight, the potential favourite for the contest.  Either way, Richard is on a hat trick in the contest and with recent showers having gone against Alfa McGuire (2/2 at the track on fast ground), I’ll opt for Richard’s pair against the other four contenders in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three winners at 13/8, 2/1 & 9/4***.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

2/2—Alfa McGuire (2 x good to fim)

 

3.10: Eleven of the fifteen toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all five (7/1-13/2-4/1-4/1-2/1*) winners. Unfortunately just the one horse is eliminated from my Placepot thoughts via the weight trend, leaving SONG OF SUMMER (my each way call in the contest), ONEFOOTINPARADISE and SCENIC RIVER to carry my Placepot cash.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals thus far, statistics which include one (2/1) winner.

 

3.45: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer and the pick of this year’s quartet of vintage representatives appear to be RITA’S MAN, LIQUID GOLD and BOLLIN TED.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this ‘Rapid Lad’ handicap have changed whereby the contest as it stands now has just five renewals to consider, with three of the seven market leaders finishing in the frame (exact science) – no winners.  Rapid Lad (the race is named after the grand servant) won 12 races at Beverley between 1983 and 1989 during an unbeaten record at the venue.  Strange but true for such a prolific scorer, is the fact that Rapid Lad failed to win anywhere else, other than at Beverley.

Record of the five course winners in field:

1/2—Liquid Gold (good to firm)

1/2—Metronomic (good)

3/6—Bollin Ted (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Paddy’s Rock (good)

2/10—John Caesar (2 x soft)

 

4.20: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.  Call me cynical by all means but I find it ‘strange’ that all five course winners have been drawn against each other in the first division of this event, or is my comment ‘unworthy’?  The pick of the four-year-olds in the second heat could prove to be VIGEE LE BRUN according to the gospel of yours truly, though money for INFLEXIBALL overnight suggests that John Mackie’s raider could bring an end to the four-year-old domination of this event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 18th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £328.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 44.7% units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 8/1

Race 2: 33.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 8/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 39.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 5/2*

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 14/1 – 6/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 66.1% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 8/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 4/1* - 16/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 15 (Mont Kiara), 1 (Ekhtiyaar) & 7 (Danielsflyer)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Nebo), 4 (Rufus King) & 6 (Finneston Farm)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Frankuus), 5 (Euginio) & 6 (Forest Ranger)

Leg 4 (3.35): 8 (Nawaasi), 1 (Altyn Order) & 10 (Soliloquy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (Strings Of Life) & 4 (Hard Forest)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Award Winning) & 8 (Rococo)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Record of the winning trainers at Newmarket this season after yesterday's opening meeting:

1/1--Karl Burke - No more runners here this week

1/1--Stuart Williams - 2 runners at Newmarket today

1/2--Tom Dascombe - 1 runner

1/3--Charlie Appleby - 5 runners

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1/3--Charlie Hills - 6 runners

1/3--Mark Johnston 5 runners

1/4--John Gosden - 5 runners

1/5--Kevin Ryan - 2 runners

 

1.50:  MONT KIARA finished third in this event last year and off a three pound lower mark today, the five-year-old could represent in form trainer Kevin Ryan to each way/Placepot effect. Available at 20/1 in a place in the dead of night, those odds have long since disappeared which makes for interesting reading.  Connections will not want the ground to dry up too much this morning relating to the chance of EKHTIYAAR who as a winner of three of his seven races to date, deserves his position at the top of the handicap.  The fact that there will (inevitably) be some moisture not too deep in the ground will play to his strengths, whilst DANIELSFLYER completes my trio against the remaining twelve runners, now that a withdrawal has robbed punters of a fourth place opportunity, from a Placepot perspective at least depending how generous your bookmaker is feeling this morning.  With every favourite beaten on yesterday’s opening card, the layers should still offer a fourth place from my viewpoint, providing at least 14 runners face the starter.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite could only finish tenth in a twelve strong field before last year’s silver medallist at least claimed a Placepot position at 7/2 on behalf of favourite backers.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Ekhtiyaar (good to soft)

2/4—Eastern Impact (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Danielsflyer (good to firm)

 

2.25: The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that the only course winner in the line up RUFUS KING could be worth an each way play at around the 9/1 mark this morning, with Mark Johnston already having had a winner at the meeting.  More logical winners (arguably) include NEBO and FINNISTON FARM who represent the in-form yards of Charlie Hills and Tom Dascombe respectively.

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.  All 19 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have claimed seventeen of the last thirty renewals, whilst securing over half (26/51) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. FRANKUUS (winner of two of four races with ‘soft’ featuring in the going description to date) makes most appeal from the relevant three entries, though both FOREST RANGER and EUGINIO demand plenty of respect in what is considered a fairly ordinary Group 3 event from my viewpoint.  If the vintage trend is to be put off track this time around, ROBIN OF NAVAN could be the potential joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 22 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period in the ‘Earl Of Sefton’ event.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/13—Master The World

 

3.35: John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled three or more winners of this event during the last fourteen years (looking for this fifth ‘recent’ winner this time around) and John makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year. With a winner already secured at the meeting, stable representative NAWAASI makes plenty of each way appeal at 9/1 (thereabouts) this afternoon.  Roger Varian has some good chances on the card and ALTYN ORDER is certainly considered as a main player here, arguably alongside SOLILOQUY.  My reservations about the Aidan O’Brien runners were justified twenty four hours ago besides which, connections of his raider Dramatically might have wished for the sunshine to have stayed away for a few more days.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the nineteen year study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Nell Gwyn’:

1/2—Altyn Order (good)

1/1—Nawaasi (good to soft)

 

4.10'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last eight renewals, though stable contender Ginger Nut might finds a few of these too hot to handle at the first time of asking.  Red Hut Red is one of those to consider, though preference is for Charlie Appleby’s newcomer STRINGS OF LIFE alongside HARD FOREST who could put her brief experience to good use I guess.  STRINGS OF LIFE remains the call however, with Charlie having established such a good record in this type of event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty one years, whilst twelve market leaders snared Placepot positions.  The biggest priced winner during the previous fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011) before the 33/1 gold medallist prevailed two years ago.

 

4.45: Although Qazyna and Ripley are fully expected to win races as three-year-old, I have to remain loyal to John Gosden who has won both races to date.  John’s two entries go straight onto the team sheet accordingly with just two places available via my permutation, namely AWARD WINNING and ROCOCO.  I marginally prefer the pair as listed, mainly because AWARD WINNING also held an entry in a race at Newbury at the weekend, yet John is letting his Dubawi filly take her chance here despite having had Rococo already pencilled in for the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared gold and silver medals ion this event thus far.

 

Record of the course winner in the eighth (non Placepot) race at 5.55:

1/1—Old Persian (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

5.55 Newmarket : Storm Over @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Tracked winner, pushed along 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Wednesday's...

9.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ubla @ 10/3 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 6,  7f A/W handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has finished as a runner-up in his of his last two starts, both at this grade over today's 7f trip, the latest being a mere 2 length defeat on this very track over course and distance just 5 days ago. That said, he has won here before, he's also won at this grade, has won at this trip and has also won when racing just five days after a previous run, so conditions aren't entirely alien to him.

Some people suggest horses don't run as well when turned back out quickly, but in UK A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, horses turned back out just 2 to 5 days after a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 151/661 (22.8% SR) for 210.5pts (+31.8% ROI) profit over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and here are ten relevant angles from that main stat...

  1. males are 117/492 (23.8%) for 178.8pts (+36.3%)
  2. those beaten by 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 88/432 (20.4%) for 152.7pts (+35.4%)
  3. at the same class as LTO : 102/430 (23.7%) for 170.5pts (+39.7%)
  4. at Class 6 : 82.352 (23.3%) for 143.8pts (+40.9%)
  5. same distance as LTO : 69/302 (22.9%) for 128.3pts (+42.5%)
  6. 5 days since last run : 54/237 (22.8%) for 64.4pts (+27.2%)
  7. same course and distance as LTO : 34/138 (24.6%) for 84.4pts (+61.1%)
  8. 5 yr olds are 31/132 (23.5%) for 46pts (+34.9%)
  9. here at Kempton : 28/108 (25.9%) for 66.1pts (+61.2%)
  10. and at the same course, distance and class as LTO : 22/83 (26.5%) for 76.7pts (+92.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ubla @ 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, SkyBet & Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th April

AINTREE – APRIL 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £205.80 (10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.8% units went through – 10/1 – 8/1*** - 12/1 – 8/1*** (8/1***)

Race 2: 42.5% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 – 9/4** - 7/1 (9/4**)

Race 3: 94.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 9/2

Race 4: 61.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 14/1

Race 5: 6.3% of the remaining units went through – 50/1 – 22/1 – 66/1 – 12/1 (2 x 8/1**)

Race 6: 47.7% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 – 9/1 – 11/1 (11/4)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 9 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 6 (Storm Home)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (Scarlet Dragon), 4 (Global Citizen) & 13 (Vision Des Flos)

Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Terrefort), 10 (Ms Parfois) & 1 (Black Corton)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Balko Des Flos) & 4 (Min)

Leg 5 (4.05): 22 (Theatre Terriroty), 15 (Ballyalton), 3 (Top Gamble) & 11 (Ultragold)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Santini) & 2 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, with vintage representatives having secured the first three places last year via just 36% of the total number of runners, a result which brought about my 10/1 winner and 92/1 forecast via a trio of nominations.  This year’s short list comprises of WHO DARES WINS, LOUGH DERG SPIRIT and STORM HOME, with the trio listed in marginal preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.  The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013.  The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course.  Four of the subsequent seven favourites (via three renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

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Aintree record of the three course winners in the opening contest:

1/4—Court Minstrel (good to soft)

1/3—Massini’s Trap (good)

1/2—Cornborough (good to soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 33 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 eight years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions six years back.  Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions two years ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Last year’s three big outsiders (on behalf of the vintage) failed to have a say in the finish, though the likes of SCARLET DRAGON and VISION DES FLOS look sure to go close this afternoon.  That said, Ben Pauling’s hat trick seeker GLOBAL CITIZEN is a live threat and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 18 renewals, with eight of the last ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Lalor (good)

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twenty renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago when Might Bite took the honours. Nicky Henderson (Might Bite last year) has saddled no less than fourteen winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last seven years! The Seven Barrows based trainer has offered the green light to TERREFORT this time around with a favourite’s chance, though the chances of seven-year-old raiders MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON are (predictably) respected.  There are worse outsiders on the card than soft ground course winner Captain Chaos at around the 28/1 mark, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 15 of the last 28 renewals (53.6%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 27 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Captain Chaos (soft)

 

3.25: The last twelve winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend looks like being extended on this occasion as only a 33/1 chance in the field is offered the chance of breaking the trend. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers two years ago, 10/1 winner God’s Own scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio.  Willie Mullins has been going through something of a quiet time by his high standards and there is every chance that his representative MIN could get turned over by BALKO DES FLOS despite being made favourite for the contest.  Henry De Bromhead’s ‘Ryanair’ winner was oh so impressive at Cheltenham last month and with MIN stepping up in trip here, I would rather stay with the horse that is proven over the distance, despite the fact that Davy Russell’s mount is dropping back a quarter of a mile after his Prestbury Park success.

Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992.  A further ten market leaders have won, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sizing Granite

 

4.05: 14 of the last 17 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst eleven of the last fifteen winners scored at 50/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1.  Nine and ten-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals whilst securing 35 of the 64 (55%) available Placepot positions between them.  Only two Irish trained winners have emerged in the last 38 years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of THEATRE TERRITORY, BALLYALTON, TOP GAMBLE and last year’s winner ULTRAGOLD. If there is a horse is the field capable of defying the weight stat (aside from Ultragold and Top Gamble) it could be O O SEVEN who ran well to finish fourth in the race last year, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last five winners.

Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last nineteen contests.  Only four of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have claimed Placepot positions.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Ultragold (good)

2/6—Eastlake (good soft)

1/5—Highland Lodge (soft)

 

4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of seven of the last ten contests) as vintage representatives secured the first four places eight years back and silver and bronze medals six years ago.   Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and a 1-2-3 (two years ago – 1-3-4 last year) via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight duo against the other twelve contenders consists of SANTINI and XCHEF DES OBEAUX.  Both horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also saddles the main threat, namely OK CORRAL.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters.  The last four favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 11th April

MARKET RASEN – APRIL 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £539.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 57.5% units went through – 4/6* & 150/1

Race 2: 46.4% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 5/4*

Race 3: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (7/2)

Race 4: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 23.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 (Win only – 5/4* unplaced)

Race 6: 9.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4 (Win only – 9/4 fav unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Mont Des Avalois) & 2 (The King Of May)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Ataguiseamix), 6 (The Bottom Bar) & 4 (Midnight Chill)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Zen Master) & 6 (Chandos Belle)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Red Devil Star), 3 (Roxyfet), 2 (Ballycamp) & 4 (Chateau Chinon)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Monbeg Charmer), 3 (Beggars Wishes) & 5 (Minella Scamp)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Lip Service) & 3 (Cyclops)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: MONT DES AVALOIS should continue the good run of favourites in this event, chiefly at the expense of THE KING OF MAY who was only sent off as a 12/1 chance in the ‘Fred Winter’ at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks ago.  Similarly, Mon Eldorado appears to have plenty in hand of the other runner in this win only contest.  There were three win only races on last year’s Placepot card which helped to produce a good dividend.

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Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/2.

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals of this event and ATAGUISEAMIX has a chance of extending the good run on behalf of vintage representatives, especially with Paul Nicholls having scored with ten of his last 25 runners.  Recent rulings now inform us that Paul’s gelding has had a wind operation whereby his win and place chance in this grade/company cannot be questioned.  Others in the mix include THE BOTTOM BAR and MIDNIGHT CHILL.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.

 

3.05: Money has surfaced overnight for ZEN MASTER (trainer Charlie Mann saddled the winner three years ago) and along with CHANDOS BELLE, the six-year-old can dominate this field at the business end of proceedings.  MR SNOOZY would be the alternative each way call if pressed, though at least one of the two ‘selections’ should finish in the frame without too much fuss.

Favourite factor: Only one joint favourite has won this event since 2010, with two of the last four winners having prevailed at 18/1 & 10/1.

Record of the three course winners in the field:

2/7—Mr Snoozy (2 x good to soft)

1/1—Zen Master (good)

1/7—Towering (soft)

 

3.35: RED DEVIL STAR strikes me as the likeliest winner of this event, though you only have to look at last year’s results in the three win only contests on the card to deduce that these races can bring about great Placepot rewards.  Accordingly, I will add all four runners into the mix before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  By all means add another bet into the mix using RED DEVIL STAR as a banker in the contest, which would offer you a better return if the rest of the races go to plan.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and bronze medals in win only events.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Roxyfet (soft)

 

4.10: I’m shaking with fear in trepidation of a non-runner evolving, potentially turning this into another nightmarish win only contest!  The pin has fallen on the trio of MONBEG CHARMER, BEGGARS WISHES and MINELLA SCAMP to get us through the crocodile infested waters at the Lincolnshire venue this afternoon.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals, though the second placed jolly failed to claim a Placepot position in a win only contest.

 

4.40: Never wishing to pay LIP SERVICE to a Placepot finale, but Fergal O’Brien’s raider (alongside CYCLOPS) should bring the bacon home for us again today.

Favourite factor: The same stats are in place in successive races on the card as the two jollies have finished first and second in this race too, with the silver medallist losing out on a Placepot position via a win only event.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cyclop (soft)

1/9—Milly Baloo (soft)

 

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

1/1—Myplaceatmidnight (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th April

LUDLOW – APRIL 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.3% units went through – 15/8* & 9/2

Race 2: 22.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 84.0% of the remaining units went through – 1/2* & 7/2

Race 4: 46.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 11/4*

Race 5: 59.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 25/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 5/4* - 33/1 – 9/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 12 (Weebill) & 9 (Shalakar)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Western Climate), 6 (Goohar) & 7 (According To Harry)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Peruvian Bleu), 4 (Raise A Spark) & 2 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Ifandbutwhynot), 2 (Cut The Corner) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Molly Carew), 9 (Diva Du Maquis) & 5 (Goodgirlteresa)

Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Full Throttle) & 1 (Forever My Friend)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Although there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue to back BATTLE OF IDEAS at around the 8/1 mark, the general price on offer is 6/1 whereby Colin Tizzard’s raider is an each way player at best from my viewpoint.  More obvious winners are WEEBILL and SHALAKAR, though Venetia Williams (trains the latter named entry) will have connections doing rain dances this morning I’ll wager!

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged, as did four market leaders in the Placepot events on the card by an aggregate of 89 lengths!

 

2.50: The ground will hopefully have dried out enough for the three course winners in the field to offer Placepot investors plenty of hope in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  WESTERN CLIMATE, GOOHAR and ACCORDING TO HARRY are listed in order to preference to get us through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  Fourth Act is the class act in the field if any thoroughbred here can be used in those terms but horses who have run well with blinkers on for the first time do not have a good record in showing similar enthusiasm next time up according to my recollections from following the sport for well over fifty years.  In terms of runs/wins, Colin Tizzard’s raider should be a 13/2 chance via the percentages, not 5/2 as is currently the general offer.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame thus far by winning the relevant event at odds of 13/8.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/2—Western Climate (good)

1/4—Goohar (good to soft)

1/3—According To Harry (good)

 

3.25: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests and with vintage representative PERUVIAN BLEU boasting a 3/3 ratio at the track, you will not be surprised to learn that the Nick Williams raider is the first name on my team sheet.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RAISE A SPARK I fancy, whilst I’M A GAME CHANGER completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include three winners.  That said, only one of the other six market leaders additionally snared a Placepot position during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—I’m A Game Changer – good to soft)

3/3—Peruvian Bleu (3 x good)

 

3.55: Last year’s winner IFANDBUTWHYNOT carries six pounds less this time around despite racing off a two pound higher mark, stats which demand that I include Danny Cook’s mount into the equation.  CUT THE CORNER represents Alistair Ralph who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect, whilst ROCK ON ROCKY also boasts win and place claims.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/5—Colin’s Brother (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Ifandbutwynot (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

4.30: Neil Mulholland is back among the winners and the popular trainer looks to have quite a strong hand here via his two entries, namely MOLLY CAREW and GOODGIRLTERESA.  If Neil and his team are to be denied, DIVA DU MAQUIS appears to be the potential spoiler in the line up.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for mares) on the Ludlow card.

 

5.05: I have only left myself two options here on a competitive card if we hold back from breaking into the ‘family reserves’ in order to appease our Placepot appetite.  Last year’s winner FULL THROTTLE and FOREVER MY FRIEND have edged out Diplomate Sivola and Queen Olivia (represents value for money from an each way perspective) accordingly.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions via two renewals to date, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Forever My Friend (good to firm)

1/1—Full Throttle (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.