Posts

Stat of the Day, 29th November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, chased clear leader 4th, closed next, led 4 out, quickened clear 2 out, comfortable victory by 14 lengths) : Finally, a winner after 3 runners-up on the bounce!

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Livvy's Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack ground worth £5693 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly carries bottom weight here, but brings the best recent form to the table, having won 3 of 6 handicaps this year, finishing 112 in her last three starts, including a win here over a mile in mid-September (her only previous run here) and was only beaten by 0.75 lengths over this trip at Newmarket 27 days ago in a better race than this. She now drops in class for her return to the All-Weather.

Stat-wise, I'm keeping it simple again by looking at trainer Charles Hills, because since the start of 2011, his 3 yr olds running in 3yo+ handicaps over trips further than a mile are 25 from 167 (15% SR) for 14.7pts (+8.8% ROI), a decent starting point that gives us the following of relevance today...

  • at 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs : 18/117 (15.4%) for 27.7pts (+23.7%)
  • 26-90 days since last run : 14/78 (18%) for 42.7pts (+54.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/55 (16.4%) for 24.8pts (+45.1%)
  • placed 2nd or 3rd LTO : 11/45 (24.4%) for 18.6pts (+41.4%)
  • on the A/W : 8/41 (19.5%) for 41.1pts (+100.3%)
  • beaten by 0.5 to 3 lengths LTO : 8/31 (25.8%) for 54.3pts (+175.1%)
  • and in November : 2/10 (20%) for 25.81pts (+258.1%)

...and from the above...Class 4 to 6 runners over 8.5 to 11.5 furlongs, 26-90 days after their last run are 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 33.4pts (+74.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Livvy's Dream @ 9/2 & 4/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & Betfair respectively at 5.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Doncaster : Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9747 to the winner...  

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 8 yr old mare's most recent form is both impressive and consistent with finishes of 22F22141 in her last eight outings, with the final three (141) being her record in handicap chases, concluding in a win LTO (albeit 207 days ago) in a Listed contest over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham, so if she's ready to go, a double drop in class could help today.

Regular jockey Lee Edwards is in the saddle once again and will be hoping to improve this mare's record which already includes of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at trips beyond 2.5 miles
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 in a hood
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 with a tongue tie
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins from 4 on good ground

She's by Midnight Legend and regular/long-standing readers will know of my fondness for backing offspring of this particular (but sadly now departed) stallion, not because of sentiment however, but because there are a myriad of profitable angles associated with him. Today's flagged Midnight Legend micro is another of those that looks more complicated in print than it really is, but here goes...

...UK / NH / 3m1f or shorter / Good ground or softer / Class 2-4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / 3 weeks to 8 months off track...

...which might seem a fairly narrow category, but today's pick will be the 800th qualifier since the start of 2013 and with 142 winners (17.8% SR) and 260.5pts (+32.6% ROI) profit in that time, it's a handy one to keep an eye on. With respect to today's contest, those 799 runners are...

  • 99/540 (18.3%) for 218.4pts (+40.4%) in handicaps
  • 48/283 (17%) for 71.7pts (+25.4%) over fences
  • 41/241 (17%) for 59.4pts (+29.7%) in handicap chases
  • 55/237 (23.2%) for 188.9pts (+79.7%) at Class 3
  • 42/212 (19.8%) for 117.9pts (+55.6%) on Good ground
  • 45/207 (21.7%) for 126pts (+60.9%) in females-only races
  • 32/191 (16.8%) for 72.2pts (+37.8%) after a break of 3 to 8 months
  • 33/139 (23.7%) for 29.2pts (+21%) from LTO winners
  • 24/119 (20.2%) for 73.4pts (+61.7%) as 8 yr olds
  • and 11/67 (16.4%) for 45.2pts (+67.4%) over the 2m5f trip

...whilst, from the above, for a smaller number of bets per year : Class 3 handicap chasers are 22/101 (21.8%) for 50.75pts (+50.25% ROI) with those sent off at 5/2 to 5/1 winning 13 of 28 (34.2%) for 21.2pts (+55.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Doncaster : Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9747 to the winner...  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare's most recent form is both impressive and consistent with finishes of 22F22141 in her last eight outings, with the final three (141) being her record in handicap chases, concluding in a win LTO (albeit 207 days ago) in a Listed contest over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham, so if she's ready to go, a double drop in class could help today.

Regular jockey Lee Edwards is in the saddle once again and will be hoping to improve this mare's record which already includes of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at trips beyond 2.5 miles
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 in a hood
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 with a tongue tie
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins from 4 on good ground

She's by Midnight Legend and regular/long-standing readers will know of my fondness for backing offspring of this particular (but sadly now departed) stallion, not because of sentiment however, but because there are a myriad of profitable angles associated with him. Today's flagged Midnight Legend micro is another of those that looks more complicated in print than it really is, but here goes...

...UK / NH / 3m1f or shorter / Good ground or softer / Class 2-4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / 3 weeks to 8 months off track...

...which might seem a fairly narrow category, but today's pick will be the 800th qualifier since the start of 2013 and with 142 winners (17.8% SR) and 260.5pts (+32.6% ROI) profit in that time, it's a handy one to keep an eye on. With respect to today's contest, those 799 runners are...

  • 99/540 (18.3%) for 218.4pts (+40.4%) in handicaps
  • 48/283 (17%) for 71.7pts (+25.4%) over fences
  • 41/241 (17%) for 59.4pts (+29.7%) in handicap chases
  • 55/237 (23.2%) for 188.9pts (+79.7%) at Class 3
  • 42/212 (19.8%) for 117.9pts (+55.6%) on Good ground
  • 45/207 (21.7%) for 126pts (+60.9%) in females-only races
  • 32/191 (16.8%) for 72.2pts (+37.8%) after a break of 3 to 8 months
  • 33/139 (23.7%) for 29.2pts (+21%) from LTO winners
  • 24/119 (20.2%) for 73.4pts (+61.7%) as 8 yr olds
  • and 11/67 (16.4%) for 45.2pts (+67.4%) over the 2m5f trip

...whilst, from the above, for a smaller number of bets per year : Class 3 handicap chasers are 22/101 (21.8%) for 50.75pts (+50.25% ROI) with those sent off at 5/2 to 5/1 winning 13 of 28 (34.2%) for 21.2pts (+55.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.45 Chepstow : Miles to Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Tracked leaders, jumped right 2nd, led 14th, mistake next, edged left before last, awkward and headed at last, 3rd and no extra towards finish) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 5-runner, Class 2 A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £15562 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has finished 211 since going handicapping and now seeks a hat-trick after wins at Leicester and then Chelmsford 18 days ago after a break of 19 days, so another Polytrack run after a similar absence today. She's 2 from 2 under today's jockey, Nicola Currie and 1 from 1 on the A/W, but her suitability for the artificial tracks isn't a surprise, as she's a daughter of Farhh...

...a 2nd year stallion, whose offspring are proving to be worth watching so far, winning 34 of 169 (20.1% SR) for profits of 24.8pts at an ROI of 14.7% and these include of relevance today...

  • 3yr olds : 25/104 (24%) for 26.2pts (+25.2%)
  • in handicaps : 19/70 (27.1%) for 22.8pts (+32.6%)
  • 3yr old handicappers : 169/65 (29.2%) for 27.8pts (+42.8%)
  • on the A/W : 12/44 (27.3%) for 26.4pts (+60.1%)
  • LTO winners are 7/31 (22.6%) for 9.36pts (+30.2%)
  • 3yr old A/W runners are 8/25 (32%) for 23.2pts (+92.8%)
  • A/W handicappers are 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.4pts (+84.4%)
  • and 3 yr old A/W handicappers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 17.4pts (+124%)

Trainer Mike Murphy also has a good record of getting LTO winners to win again, achieving this feat on 20 of 94 (21.3% SR) occasions since 2012, generating profits of 30.3pts at an ROI of 32.2% along the way, including the following...

  • in handicaps : 17/83 (20.5%) for 32.2pts (+38.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 : 14/51 (27.5%) for 10.2pts (+20%)
  • after a break of 4-20 days : 15/49 (30.6%) for 35.2pts (+71.8%)
  • on the A/W : 14/48 (29.2%) for 23.9pts (+49.8%)
  • since 2016 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 30.9pts (+91%)
  • female runners are 8/32 925%) for 14.7pts (+46%)
  • at Kempton : 3/12 (25%) for 0.26pts (+2.2%)
  • and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/4 (50%) for 3.05pts (+76.4%)

And seeing as we've looked at the horse, her sire and her trainer, we might as well take a quick look at jockey Nicola Currie, a very promising/talented rider IMO, who to date has ridden 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) for Mike Murphy so far and a £20 stake on each of the 24 would have made you a handy £199 profit at an ROI of 41.5% and these rides include...

  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.96pts (+47.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.28pts (+25.2%) on the A/W
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 7.23pts (+361.5%) here at Kempton...

...which all points us towards... a 1pt win bet on Yaa Mous @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms by 5.20pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Kempton

Please Note : due to a family commitment, Thursday's selection will not appear until late Wednesday / early Thursday, although I'll endeavour to have it done by midnight if possible!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.40 Windsor : Fresh Terms @ 3/1 BOG (=2.4/1 after a 20p R4) WON at 2/1 (Made all, clear over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly, unchallenged winner by 2.25 lengths) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pike Corner Cross @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, I was tempted to put last Wednesday's winner, Pure Shores (5.45 Newcastle) up again, but I'm siding with a 6 yr old gelding who appears to have a good chance of snapping a long losing streak.

He was far from disgraced when finishing as a runner-up in a similar contest over course and distance off today's mark a week ago, but that did take his current run to 12 losses since back to back A/W wins in Class 5 handicaps over 1m/1m0.5f in late 2016, although the time frame is deceptive/misleading as he was off the track for 16 of the last 22 months (Dec '16 to April '18).

He's now some 22lbs lower rate than his last win and looked like he was returning to form last week, form that has seen him win 4 of 20 A/W handicaps before now, including of some relevance today...

  • 4 wins, 3 places from 17 at 1m/1m0.5f
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 14 for trainer Ed de Giles
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 14 here at Kempton
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 13 in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 12 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins, 1 place under jockey Callum Shepherd

...and from the above, he has 2 wins and a place from 8 starts for Ed de Giles over this course and distance in fields of 12-15 runners with the 25% win strike rate yielding 7.62 pts profit at an ROI of 95.3%.

Ed also often sends his A/W handicappers out after a short rest and since the start of 2015, those rested for just 6-25 days are 28/137 (20.4% SR) for 53.5pts (+39.1% ROI), including...

  • at Classes 5 to 7 : 22/105 (21%) for 60.4pts (+57.5%)
  • over trips shorter than 10f : 22/104 (21.2%) for 47.1pts (+45.3%)
  • at Kempton : 10/55 (18.2%) for 10.7pts (+19.5%)
  • at class 5-7 over 5-11f at Kempton : 8/34 (23.5%) for 21.2pts (+62.3%)
  • 2nd/3rd LTO : 8/23 (34.8%) for 23.03pts (+100.1%)
  • same C&D as LTO : 5/149 (26.3%) for 42.06pts (+221.44%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/16 (31.25%) for 52.5pts (+328%)

Of course the elephant in the room is the current losing streak endured by this horse, but since the start of 2014, Ed de Giles' handicappers on a losing run of 6 to 12 races now running off a lower mark than their last win are 9 from 66 (13.6% SR) for 31.1pts at an ROI of some 47.1%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pike Corner Cross @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 York : Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, headway in centre chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on into 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Well, we've got a 4 yr old filly who has been running consistently well over the last 6 months, making the first three in six of her seven starts in that period and won last time out at Lingfield 30 days ago.

That was also a Class 4, 6 furlong A/W handicap where she was ridden by today's jockey Irineu Goncalves, so conditions shouldn't be entirely alien to her today.

Generally speaking, Chris Dwyer's A/W runners who won LTO also on the A/W are worth at least a second glance, since they're 23 from 85 (27.1% SR) since the start of 2013. Sadly, they don't quite make a profit from blind backing (not that I'd advocate that anyway) : they've actually lost 1.03pts at Betfair SP.

However, this is such a small loss that they remain of serious interest because (a) any blind approach with an SR of 25% or higher is a good starting point and (b) they'd be profitable at early BOG odds like we take, especially as those eventually sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 22/58 (39.3% SR) for 20.3pts profit (+36.3% ROI).

So, the basic premise here is to follow Chris Dwyer's shorter priced LTO winners.

That approach brought Rose Berry into my thinking and also at the back of my mind I has this vague memory that one of Mr Dwyer's successful angles was with lower grade handicappers on Polytrack, so I did a bit of data mining and discovered that since the start of 2016, his Class 4 to 7 Polytrack handicappers have won 28 of 137 races (20.4% SR) for profits of 166.4pts at an ROI of 121.4%, which are very decent figures indeed.

But we need to see how those numbers would fit into today's contest and what I found was that of the 28/137 stat...

  • over trips of a mile and shorter : 25/121 (20.7%) for 172.9pts (+142.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 27/105 (25.7%) for 196.1pts (+186.8%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 22/61 (36.1%) for 33.1pts (+54.3%) further proof that the market tends to get the Dwyer horses right.
  • in September / October : 8/33 (24.2%) for 62pts (+188%)
  • Fav / jt fav / co-fav (all a possibility here today) : 13/23 (56.5%) for 17.26pts (+75%)
  • LTO winners : 10/20 (50%) for 15.22pts (+76.1%)
  • and those ridden by Irineu Goncalves are 3/5 960%) for 130.75pts (+261.5%)

...all steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG , a price widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday evening ans was still there at 9.00am on Monday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.40 York : Dave Dexter @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, headway in centre chasing leaders over 2f out, kept on into 2nd over 1f out, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, we've got a 4 yr old filly who has been running consistently well over the last 6 months, making the first three in six of her seven starts in that period and won last time out at Lingfield 30 days ago.

That was also a Class 4, 6 furlong A/W handicap where she was ridden by today's jockey Irineu Goncalves, so conditions shouldn't be entirely alien to her today.

Generally speaking, Chris Dwyer's A/W runners who won LTO also on the A/W are worth at least a second glance, since they're 23 from 85 (27.1% SR) since the start of 2013. Sadly, they don't quite make a profit from blind backing (not that I'd advocate that anyway) : they've actually lost 1.03pts at Betfair SP.

However, this is such a small loss that they remain of serious interest because (a) any blind approach with an SR of 25% or higher is a good starting point and (b) they'd be profitable at early BOG odds like we take, especially as those eventually sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 22/58 (39.3% SR) for 20.3pts profit (+36.3% ROI).

So, the basic premise here is to follow Chris Dwyer's shorter priced LTO winners.

That approach brought Rose Berry into my thinking and also at the back of my mind I has this vague memory that one of Mr Dwyer's successful angles was with lower grade handicappers on Polytrack, so I did a bit of data mining and discovered that since the start of 2016, his Class 4 to 7 Polytrack handicappers have won 28 of 137 races (20.4% SR) for profits of 166.4pts at an ROI of 121.4%, which are very decent figures indeed.

But we need to see how those numbers would fit into today's contest and what I found was that of the 28/137 stat...

  • over trips of a mile and shorter : 25/121 (20.7%) for 172.9pts (+142.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 27/105 (25.7%) for 196.1pts (+186.8%)
  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 22/61 (36.1%) for 33.1pts (+54.3%) further proof that the market tends to get the Dwyer horses right.
  • in September / October : 8/33 (24.2%) for 62pts (+188%)
  • Fav / jt fav / co-fav (all a possibility here today) : 13/23 (56.5%) for 17.26pts (+75%)
  • LTO winners : 10/20 (50%) for 15.22pts (+76.1%)
  • and those ridden by Irineu Goncalves are 3/5 960%) for 130.75pts (+261.5%)

...all steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Rose Berry @ 9/2 BOG , a price widely available at 7.35pm on Sunday evening ans was still there at 9.00am on Monday.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway and squeezed through over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by 2.5L)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klassique @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was 5th on debut over a mile and looked like she wanted/needed further, so was stepped up to 9.5f. She was then beaten by three parts of a length as a runner-up and she still looked like she had plenty more to give. She then won on her third and most recent start 8 weeks ago when just getting up by a nose over 1m2f when partnered by today's jockey James Doyle for the first time.

James is back in place and they're going a further 2 furlongs today for her handicap debut and I wouldn't be massively surprised if this proves to be the right trip for her : trainer William Haggas is one of the better judges around.

He doesn't, however, send many runners here to Kempton's Polytrack, but since the start of 2013, his handicappers are 14 from 72 (19.4% SR) for 21.6pts (+30% ROI) at this venue, so it's not a lack of success keeping him/them away. Of those 72 that have been sent here, Class 4/5 runners are 10 from 48 (20.8%) for 14.7pts (+30.7%)

Again since the start of 2013, Mr Haggas is 64/207 (30.9% SR) for 74pts (+35.8% ROI) with LTO winners who had been rested for at least 25 days.

Also in this same 2013-18 timeframe, his Class 3-6 handicap debutants are 71 from 257 (27.6% SR) for 38.3pts (+14.9% ROI), from which...

  • LTO winners are 47/157 (29.9%) for 21.6pts (+13.8%)
  • those off the track for a month or longer are 39/113 (34.5%) for 71.7pts (+63.5%)
  • and LTO winners returning from an absence of a month or longer are 26/71 (36.6%) for 34.3pts (+48.3%)

So, we've considered the horse and her trainer, what of her jockey, James Doyle? Well, he has a good recent record here too, having won 19 of 70 (27.1% SR) handicaps on this track since the start of 2016 recording profits of 30.8pts at an ROI of 44.1%. These also include 14 winners from 37 (37.8%) for 39.7pts (+107.2%) at Class 4 and two wins from three (66.6%) for 5.26pts (+175.4%) on horses trained by William Haggas...

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Klassique @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.15pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway and squeezed through over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by 2.5L)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klassique @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £6469 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was 5th on debut over a mile and looked like she wanted/needed further, so was stepped up to 9.5f. She was then beaten by three parts of a length as a runner-up and she still looked like she had plenty more to give. She then won on her third and most recent start 8 weeks ago when just getting up by a nose over 1m2f when partnered by today's jockey James Doyle for the first time.

James is back in place and they're going a further 2 furlongs today for her handicap debut and I wouldn't be massively surprised if this proves to be the right trip for her : trainer William Haggas is one of the better judges around.

He doesn't, however, send many runners here to Kempton's Polytrack, but since the start of 2013, his handicappers are 14 from 72 (19.4% SR) for 21.6pts (+30% ROI) at this venue, so it's not a lack of success keeping him/them away. Of those 72 that have been sent here, Class 4/5 runners are 10 from 48 (20.8%) for 14.7pts (+30.7%)

Again since the start of 2013, Mr Haggas is 64/207 (30.9% SR) for 74pts (+35.8% ROI) with LTO winners who had been rested for at least 25 days.

Also in this same 2013-18 timeframe, his Class 3-6 handicap debutants are 71 from 257 (27.6% SR) for 38.3pts (+14.9% ROI), from which...

  • LTO winners are 47/157 (29.9%) for 21.6pts (+13.8%)
  • those off the track for a month or longer are 39/113 (34.5%) for 71.7pts (+63.5%)
  • and LTO winners returning from an absence of a month or longer are 26/71 (36.6%) for 34.3pts (+48.3%)

So, we've considered the horse and her trainer, what of her jockey, James Doyle? Well, he has a good recent record here too, having won 19 of 70 (27.1% SR) handicaps on this track since the start of 2016 recording profits of 30.8pts at an ROI of 44.1%. These also include 14 winners from 37 (37.8%) for 39.7pts (+107.2%) at Class 4 and two wins from three (66.6%) for 5.26pts (+175.4%) on horses trained by William Haggas...

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Klassique @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.15pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st August 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.50 Leicester : Ninjago @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Mid-division, headway under pressure inside final 2f, soon switched right and ridden, stayed on to chase winner well inside final furlong, always held)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

One of only two former course and distance winners in today's race, having prevailed here over track and trip LTO 13 days ago.

Our boy has certainly made a good start to handicap life, making the frame in all seven efforts, winning twice, including that LTO win under today's jockey Nicola Currie. Nicola is generally very good value for her 3lb claim and I'm happy to see her booked for this ride on a track she fares well at.

In fact, her record here stands at 11 winners from 72 (15.3% SR) for profits of 57.1pts at an ROI of 79.4% and these rides include of relevance today...

  • in 2018 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 68.6pts (+167.2%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 80.5pts (+223.6%)
  • over 7 to 11 furlongs in 2018 : 8/21 (38.1%) for 88.6pts (+421.7%)
  • and over this 7f course and distance this year : 4/8 (50%) for 42.9pts (+536.2%)

Meanwhile, our trainer Joseph Tuite's record on handicaps over the last 22 months with LTO winners stands at 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 20.22pts (+50.6% ROI) profit, including of note today...

  • for prizes of less than £8,000 : 13/35 (37.1%) for 25.22pts (+72.1%)
  • males : 11/34 (32.4%) for 18.55pts (+54.6%)
  • on the A/W : 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.07pts (+77.6%)
  • June to August  6/16 (37.5%) for 19.09pts (+119.3%)
  • over 6f to 1m : 5/15 (33.3%) for 9.23pts (+61.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.37pts (+49.1%)
  • within 14 days of that LTO win : 6/13 (46.2%) for 9.83pts (+75.7%)
  • and with Nicola Currie in the saddle : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.47pts (+249.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Fortune and Glory 4/1 BOGa price offered by at least a dozen firms (as at 7.35pm on Monday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.15 Ffos Las : Air of York @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 7/1 (Held up, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, never able to challenge, weakened closing stages)

Wednessday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pot Luck 3/1 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 2yr old filly trained by Andrew Balding, whose runners are in fine form right now (wish I was!), notching up 8 winners from 19 (42.1% SR) over the last 7 days.

More long-term, Andrew's runners making their second start in a handicap are 40 from 229 (17.5% SR) for 99.9pts (+43.6% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these runners include...

  • June-October : 24/143 (16.8%) for 114pts (+79.7%)
  • 7f/1m : 13/76 (17.1%) for 62.8pts (+82.7%)
  • females : 13/66 (19.7%) for 52.8pts (+80%)
  • in 2018 : 10/36 (27.8%) for 69.5pts (+192.9%)
  • Class 6 : 8/34 (23.5%) for 2.9pts (+8.6%)
  • at Kempton : 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.4pts (+68%)

...AND... females at 7f/1m in June-October = 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 53.9pts (+359.6% ROI) including 2 wins from 3 this year so far.

Joshua Bryan takes the ride today and takes 3lbs off our girl's back with his claim and Andrew Balding + A/W handicaps + 3lb claimers = 14/59 (23.7% SR) for 26.3pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including of relevance today...

  • on Polytrack : 13/48 (27.1%) for 14.5pts (+30.1%)
  • over 7f to 8.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%)
  • Sub-5/1 shots are 11/25 (44%) for 19pts (+76%)
  • and here at Kempton : 5/14 (35.7%) for 19.4pts (+138.5%)

...AND...at odds shorter than 5/1 on Polytrack over 7f to 8.5f = 6/10 (60% SR) for 14.87pts (+148.7% ROI) with one winner from two here at Kempton showing 3.75pts profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pot Luck 3/1 BOGa price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.00 Pontefract :Quoteline Direct @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up behind, headway on inside over 3f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, kept on to win by four lengths)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.55 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is having just his third handicap run today, having made the frame in both previous efforts.

He was a runner-up on hcp debut in mid-April despite (a) being off track for 144 days and (b) being stepped up from 6f to 1m for the first time, yet was only beaten by 0.75 lengths with the horse in 3rd, 4th and 6th all having gone on to win since.

Then 42 days later (49 days ago), he broke his duck with a win here at Kempton in this grade over course and distance, comfortably steered home to a 4 lengths success by today's jockey Adam Kirby who was riding him for the first time.

He is trained by Emma Owen, who might not be the most famous of trainers, nor does she have a huge string of horses to work with. She's also not an obvious starting point for an SotD selection as since the start of 2016, her runners have only won 9 of 184 (4.9% SR) for a loss of 71.6% (-38.9% ROI), but as ever we're not advocating blindly following a trainer, we're looking for an angle that suggests a clear MO.

And closer inspection of Emma's numbers highlights something to me, because of her 9/184 record, she's 8/63 (12.7% SR) for 5.64pts (+8.95% ROI) here at Kempton and whilst those SR & ROI figures aren't really up to SotD standard, they are certainly out of the norm for Emma's overall profile and as such are worth examining.

From that 8/63 course stat, handicappers are 8/56 (14.3% SR) for 12.64pts (+22.6% ROI) and suddenly we have something interesting to work from. Further analysis of these 56 Kempton handicappers shows...

  • 8 winners from 52 (15.4%) for 16.64pts (+32%) from male runners
  • 8 winners from 50 (16%) for 18.64pts (+37.3%) competing for prizes less than £4k
  • 8 winners from 44 (18.2%) for 24.64pts (+56%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 7 winners from 37 (18.9%) for 26.28pts (+71%) at Classes 5 & 6
  • 6 winners from 25 (24%) for 30.9pts (+123.6%) after a break of 16 to 60 days
  • 5 winners from 19 (26.3%) for 35.5pts (+186.7%) off marks (OR) of 61 to 75
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 19.34pts (+276.3%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 19.27pts (+385.4%) ridden by Adam Kirby
  • and 2 winners from 5 (40%) for 14.6pts (+292%) who also won last time out

I accept/appreciate that the 56 runners aren't the biggest sample size, but the numbers above do suggest that this is the kind of race Emma's horses do best in and from the above...Class 5/6 males racing over 6f to 1m for less than £4k prize money off a break of 6 to 60 days are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 40.3pts (+175.1% ROI) and these include...

  • off marks of 61-75 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 40.48pts (+289.1%)
  • sub 5/1 shots : 4/5 (80%) for 15.98pts (+319.6%)
  • under Adam Kirby : 3/4 (75%) for 20.27pts (+506.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 16.6pts (+553.3%)

And finally, as it looks like our pick will go off as favourite today and we know that backing favs can be a costly procedure, it's worth knowing that since 2011 that Adam Kirby is 169/463 (36.5% SR) for 82.8pts (+17.9% ROI) on Class 6 favourites, winning 22 of 54 (40.7%) for 23.5pts (+43.5%) over a 1m trip!

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOGwhich was widely (over a dozen firms) available at 1.20am on Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 82.7% units went through – 5/1 – 11/4* - 10/3

Race 2: 15.9% of the remaining units when through – 2/1* - 7/2 – 7/1

Race 3: 20.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 43.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 3/1 (15/8)

Race 5: 67.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 3/1* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.4% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3 & 13/2 (2/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Forseti), 2 (Dombra) & 1 (Dirty Rascal)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Edged Out), 5 (Silverrica) & 3 (Rio Ronaldo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (It’s the Only Way), 2 (Oberyn Martell) & 8 (Curfewed)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Big Tour), 3 (Valcartier) & 7 (Aquarium)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Drill) & 5 (Mekong)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Okool) & 2 (Mistress Quickly)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: ‘Team Hannon’ have won three of the last nine renewals of this opening event and in DIRTY RASCAL, Richard has declared a representative which has already shown a fair amount of potential.  This additional furlong should suit and if successful, it will be worth looking for Dunkerron’s entry over the course of the weekend, with Alan King’s Windsor winner (Dirty Rascal finished second) holding three entries on Saturday/Monday at the time of writing.  Richard Hannon has also offered the green light to his Intikhab newcomer Motafaawit which complicates matters to a fashion, though Jim Crowley’s mount is proving easy to back as I pen this column. Connections thought that DOMBRA could be a Royal Ascot juvenile in the making whereby this far lesser test should ensure a Placepot position at the very least. Similar comments could also apply to FORSETI I guess, especially as he was a 33/1 chance at the first time of asking when like Dombra, he finished a promising fourth with a juvenile success probably there for the taking at the right level.

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Favourite factor: 13 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: EDGED OUT was due to contest this race last year but was withdrawn on account of the yielding conditions.  There will not be a repeat of that scenario twelve months on however with the sun beating down on this green and pleasant land for the foreseeable future.  It’s unusual for the west to create the highest temperature during a heatwave but that was the case yesterday when Wales recorded the highest reading at over thirty degrees. Back to the sport on offer and with EDGED OUT being a previous course and distance winner who is running off a sixteen ounce lower mark today, we can presume that Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare will be in the thick of things at the business end of proceedings.  SILVERICCA cannot be ignored either, despite the fact that that soft ground would have played to her strengths.  The fact remains however, that John Egan’s mount won this event two years ago when carrying an additional five pounds whereby you can detect that her Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see.  That all said, RIO RONALDO also boasts obvious claims from further up the handicap following a fine Sandown effort the last day.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have snared Placepot positions via ten renewals to date, statistics which include five (7/2, 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 & 2/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

1/4—Silverrica (soft)

 

3.10: Messers Hannon (IT’S THE ONLY WAY & SIRINAPHA) & Channon (CURFEWED) have equally shared four of the last six contests between them, though their respective raiders face a decent rival in OBERYN MARTELL in an interesting event.  Mick won the race last year with a 25/1 newcomer whereby the 16/1 quote this morning for Curfewed is not likely to throw yours truly off the scent as the morning wears on.  IT’S THE ONLY WAY has already proved his durability and looks sure to go very close again.  Rossa Ryan’s mount hails from Lilbourne Lad stock which pleases the Hannon team no end with their former inmate having represented the stable to great effect a few years ago.  Throw Queen Shaahd into the mix and we have cracking two-year-old race to witness.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.  12 of the 16 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 25/1-13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other four contests.

 

3.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen renewals of this contest whilst ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. There are no relevant vintage raider in the field this time around, whilst BIG TOUR and VALCARTIER make most appeal from those towards the top of the handicap.  AQUARIUM could out run his double figure price, albeit from well below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Mr Top Hat (heavy)

1/1—Power Of Darkness (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the seventeen winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include seven of the last eleven gold medallists. Luca Cumani has only saddled one horse during the last nine days (beaten a short head), whilst the popular trainer was only conspicuous by his absence at Royal Ascot this year.  I’m hoping that DRILL can show the way forward this afternoon because as sure as night follows day, Luca will come roaring back to form any time soon and it’s worth noting that his number of runners look set to increase over the next few days according to the entries list.  Connections might have most to fear from MEKONG who looks a tad over the odds at 11/2 in a place as I head towards the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 12 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged four years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in this Bibury Cup event:

1/1—Burgonet (good to firm)

 

4.40: The last eleven winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the grain as the two horses I fancy most here are OKOOL and MISTRESS QUICKLY.  That said, I’m offering the pair from a Placepot perspective which should prove successful as long as at least eight of the nine declarations face the starter.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders (via twelve renewals) to date have claimed Placepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Air Squadron (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Fitzwilly (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.