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Racing Insights, 30th January 2021

Good, if not great, news from Friday's featured race, as my three against the field finished 1st, 3rd and 4th with Sod's Law prevalent once again as my second choice, the 11/2 advised Lucky Ava was the 7/2 winner. I'd gone with The Pretty Way, who I felt was overpriced at 9/2 and she was third at 3/1 to justify my thoughts. So no profit today, but I'll claim some kind of moral victory.

Saturday is our last piece of the month and the free feature is the fabulous Trainer/Jockey combo report, whilst there are full free racecards on offer to everyone for the following races...

  • 2.00 Kempton
  • 3.45 Kempton

...there was a couple at Cheltenham too, but that meeting has succumbed to the weather I'm afraid.

Of the two featured races, the first looks better/more interesting, so we're setting our sights on the 2.00 Kempton...

...where I'm expecting bottom weight Amtiyaz to be popular and therefore possibly over-bet. My task is to see if his popularity is deserved and whether I can offer an alternative selection or two.

Starting with form, Chipiron and Amtiyaz are best recently, whilst Koeman, Rochester House and Vibrance have also won in the not too distant past. We have five class movers with three coming down from C2 to C3 (Koeman, Cosmelli & Amtiyaz) whilst both Hasanabad and Vibrance move up from Class 4 runs last time out. Recent form also has a bearing on the Geegeez Ratings with Chipiron, Koeman & Amtiyaz leading the way.

Koeman won at this grade over 1m4f two starts ago, but could only manage fifth over the same trip when raised a class last time out. He's 4 from 10 on the A/W, has won here at Kempton, is 6 from 24 over 1m4f , but 0 from 3 at 1m4.5f to 1m6f and has never raced beyond 1m6f. Dropped in class, eased a pound in the weights plus a 7lb jockey claim and pretty good recent form suggests he should have a good chance if handling the extra half mile.

Dal Horrisgle has finished third and then fifth of late, but both over hurdles. Last seen on level ground at Ascot when only beaten by 2.25 lengths at this class/trip but on soft ground. The re-opposing Rochester House actually won that race and Dal Horrisgle is 3lbs worse off here, so difficult to see him winning here and not one I'd spent too much time/money on.

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Cosmelli got to within half a length of the winner at this class/trip two starts ago on the A/W at Newcastle, but toiled last time out raised in class. Back at Class 3 should help him, of course. He was less than a quarter of a length ahead of Rochester House at Newcastle but is now a pound worse off, making life a little more difficult. He's o from 13 going right handed too, which isn't great and includes 6 defeats over C&D and I expect he'll come up a little short again here,

Hasanabad produces most of his best form in NH contests, but was a 4.5 length runner-up over 1m6f at Chelmsford six weeks ago. That was a Class 2 contest, so this should be a little easier and the trip shouldn't be an issue. Sadly those good runs on the level are few and far between and he's not the most reliable type if there's nothing for him to jump, so I'd probably wait until he returns to hurdling..

Chipiron has interestingly good form figures on face value at 232 in three UK races, but that should be tempered by checking they actually came in fields of 3, 6 and 5 runners respectively. His French form, however was very good winning seven times between 1m4f and 1m7.5f and often on dreadful ground. Back up in trip today after a run at 1m4f LTO, but was only beaten by a length at this class/trip two starts ago despite coming off a break. He was half a length in front of Rochester House (who seems to have raced against lots of today's field) that day but now re-opposes a pound worse off. Place chances here, but I don't fancy him for the win at this moment of my analysis.

Charlie D represents the well-known successful Dascombe/Kingscote trainer/jockey combo who have good individual and combined records here at Kempton, but the horse himself has seemed out of sorts of late and hasn't really ran well in five starts since winning at Newmarket back in June of last year. Has won eight times so far including four under jockey Richard Kingscote and that jockey booking and a drop in weight that offer some hope for this contest, but I fancy others more if I'm honest.

Cleonte is just 2 from 23 and has looked out of sorts since winning at Ascot in June 2019 and his last six outings have been particularly disappointing seeing finish 7th of 9, last of 6, last of 34, 8th of 9, 6th of 7 and 5th of 6. This is clearly not the same horse that was only 1.75 lengths behind Stradivarius in 2019 and despite only being 6yrs ago, I fear his best days have been and gone.

Rochester House has been mentioned several times already and re-opposes six of this field on better terms today. His yard and jockey are in good individual and combined form the same can be said about their records here at Kempton. The horse may well have only finished fourth in each of his last outings at class/trip, but wasn't beaten by far in either and had won his two previous races before those 4th places. Four of his five carrier wins have been at two miles whilst four wins have come with Joe Fanning in the saddle and I'd expect the pair to be in the final shake-up here : definite place prospects.

Vibrance was on fire here at Kempton from November 2019 to July 2020 finishing 111313 over course and distance taking his handicap mark from 65 to 86 in the process. He then struggled off 86, beaten by 15 lengths as last of 12 home at Sandown and now returns to A/W racing for the first time in over six months. On paper, he's got a really good chance, but I fear the lay-off, a mark of 86 and the booking of an inexperienced albeit talented 7lb claimer jockey (has never ridden beyond 1m4.5f) make others more appealing to me, although Vibrance will look good on Instant Expert shortly, no doubt!

To Be Wild won his second and third career starts way back in 216 and that was possibly the peak of his career, having failed to impress since. His form won't have been helped by the rustiness caused by only running twice since mid-December 2019 and suffice to say, he's not for me and I wouldn't be surprised if he's last home here, unless he beats Cleonte!

Last but certainly not least, we have bottom weight and likely favourite Amtiyaz. Carrying no weight is useful, as is the booking of the mega-talented Hollie Doyle, throw in a recent form line of 21132 over the last four months and you've a rough idea of why he's popular. Oh, did I mention that Frankel's his dad? So some decent breeding going on, but a factor that often leads to runners being over-bet. The negatives around this one include the fact that he could only finish 3rd of 7 at class. course and distance seven weeks ago and is now rated 3lbs higher. He's 0 from 2 here at Kempton, 0 from 2 at 2m and hasn't won beyond Class 4. He is, however, 2 from 5 under Hollie Doyle and probably deserves to be favourite, but not a clear one if that makes sense?

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Some of what I've just mentioned will, of course, be repeated by Instant Expert, but here's your quick overview of race suitability using our unique traffic light system...

I said Vibrance would look good! Koeman's ability in this grade is a standout stat, as is Rochester House's form at this trip and the latter is only 1lb higher than his last win. Likely favourite Amtiyaz doesn't look quite as appealing here, though.

A/W contests often lean heavily on the pace and draw stats and how the two interlink, but is the draw as relevant over two miles? You wouldn't probably have thought so, but over 109 similar races, there does seem to be a bias towards a low draw...

..but a high draw isn't totally disastrous. If you can lead from the high draw, then you're actually the most likely to win, believe it or not. Otherwise low and held up/mid-div are the places to be...

And when we overlay our runners in likely pace order...

...none of them particularly stand out. Koeman possibly looks best suited with both Rochester House and Amtiyaz not too far away from being in the green. In fact those three are the ones that have caught my eye the most during my analysis of the race and I think I want them to be my final three. There are bits and pieces to like about Chipiron and Cosmelli, whilst Vibrance would be better down in class, but I think I'm happy with my three.

Summary

I've taken (alphabetically) Amtiyaz, Koeman and Rochester House as my three against the field here, but the bookies don't agree with me. That said, they're not always right! I don't there's too much between all three, but I do have a marginal preference for Koeman. I like all three here and there are lots of positives for each of the trio, I just feel that Koeman has fewer negatives and at odds of 7/1, he's very interesting.

I don't see Amtiyaz as a 9/4 or 5/2 horse if next best is 5/1 or 11/2 and as I'm struggling to split the favourite from Rochester House, who is priced at a best priced 8/1, then I'd rather Rochester was runner-up. There won't be much in it, but I hope I've found the first three or at least a winner at 7/1 or 8/1.

Racing Insights, 27th January 2021

Wolverhampton passed an 11am inspection and racing goes ahead, although it's still some time away from our featured race, so I'll move straight to Wednesday, where "feature of the day" is the Trainer Stats report and the free racecards are for the following races...

  • 12.45 Thurles
  • 5.15 Kempton

With the absence of any UK jumps racing, my Trainer Stats aren't generating anything with a decent sample size to work from and the "free" Thurles race is a 7-runner affair that Willie Mullins trains four of, including a likely odds-on fav. So perhaps, I'll look at the 5.15 Kempton, eh?

It's a 9-runner, Class 5, Fillies, A/W handicap over 7f on Polytrack and the winner will receive £3429. Here's how they line up...

Vivency and Perfect Rose lead the way on form, although prior to a poor result LTO, Eponina was bang in form too. I'll have to see what happened there. As for the Geegeez ratings, they are headed by Perfect Rose, Vivency and Lady Alavesa.

Vivency has been mentioned a couple of times already and she's a lightly raced four year old filly who hasn't been out of the first three in her three starts to date. Well beaten (6L) on debut here over a mile, then beaten by a length and a quarter over 7f at Wolverhampton before going down by just half here over course and distance a fortnight ago. She was sent off at 14/1 that and was conceding 13lbs to the odds on winner, so certainly not disgraced. She was a neck ahead of a 73-rated runner that day, so whilst she bears top weight here, a handicap debut mark of 70 might still be generous.

Parikarna has probably ran well in two of her ten starts to date and has struggled of late, regularly starting slowly or missing the break. Her sole victory to date was over this trip, but that was over 15 months and six races ago and it's hard to make a case for her here.

Perfect Rose is the form horse with two runner-up finishes under her belt this year already, but they were both on Tapeta at Wolverhampton and she's still a maiden after 12 races. The Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle trainer/jockey combo is a fearsome one and I've written about it many times before (7 from 25 in C4/5 hcps here at Kempton in case you were wondering) and it's probably no coincidence that this horse's improvement has come with Ms Doyle in the saddle and the application of cheekpieces. The horse seems to carry her head awkwardly and she'll need to improve upon her previous Polytrack runs, but a definite player here.

Kodiellen is a former course and distance winner, but hasn't fared too well since, finishing 12th of 14, 5th of 13, 7th of 8 and 9th of 10 last time out going down by more than 10 lengths in each of her last two outings. She's a pound lower than that C&D success here back in September, but recent form makes her vey hard to fancy today.

Poetry And Art is another about whom it's difficult to make a case. A four-length defeat in the third of her five races to date is her best effort so far and she has been last of 13 (beaten by 46 lengths eased down) and 10th of 11 (bt by 18L) since. Although William Haggas' runners seem to be going quite well at present, his Kempton handicappers are 2 from 36 since the start of 2019 and I can't see how a step up in class helps this runner today.

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Chloellie has lost each of her last five starts on the A/W, but was a creditable fourth at Southwell last time out, almost snatching a place at the death. She was slow away, was badly hampered, got little luck in running but still plugged/stayed on to get within a neck of the places at odds of 11/1. Despite that near miss she still has 7 wins and 7 further placed finishes from 27 A/W runs, including 5 wins + 6 places from 16 here at Kempton, 2 wins + 6 places from 10 over C&D, 4 wins + 2 places from 8 under today's jockey and 2 wins from 4 in January. Conditions look well set for another big run from this 6 yr old mare.

Eponina was 8th of 10 at Wolverhampton last time out, but had been in good nick (23133) in the final quarter of 2020. She ran well here when beaten by four lengths over a mile at Class 4 two starts ago and was beaten by less than a length and a half at Wolverhampton following a heavy ground 7f win at Leicester. She is, however, much better on the Flat than on the A/W but gets on really well with jockey Theodore Ladd. Past results suggest she's not a winner here, but could well make the frame at a price.

Lady Alavesa has, for a 6 yr old, been around the block a few times already. Her bare career stats aren't impressive, though : just 4 wins from 44 including just 1 from 23 on the A/W. It's over two years and 23 races since she last won with 15 of those defeats coming on the all-weather. That said, she has made the frame in four of her last seven starts and she has won 3 of 7 races over 7 to 7.5 furlongs. She has a 45% career place strike rate and such is the dearth of real quality in this race, you could see her making the frame again.

Raha is the bottom weight here, rated at just 60 before her jockey's 3lb claim kicks in and she was a winner off just 2lbs lower when scoring over this trip on soft ground at Salisbury three starts ago. She then struggled on heavy ground three weeks later at Yarmouth before a three month rest which was ended with a creditable run over class, course and distance here at Kempton 11 days ago. She was sent off at 40/1 that day, but only went down by just over 2.5 lengths. She runs off a pound lower today but will still need to improve and she doesn't scream the word consistent to me.

Several of these runners have faced each other in the past with five relevant contests...

12/8/19

7/9/20

10/10/20

17/12/20

11/1/21

As tends to be the case, the place element of Instant Expert tells us much more than the win version...

Chloellie is the one that catches my eye here, because she has little red on the win graphic and plenty of green on the place element and this is from a decent sample size, some of which I alluded to earlier on and it looks like ideal conditions for her. Unfortunately for her, though, she's not well drawn out in stall 8 of 9, as the end two stalls have only won 7 of the last 58 similar contests here in contrast to stalls 1 and 2 winning 19 between them...

The figures for stall 5 are a little strange from a win perspective, as the place ratio looks in line with what you'd expect, so we'll call the 6.9% SR an anomaly. Ideally you want to be drawn low here based on the above data and if you get a low draw, it pays to lead. Otherwise, you want a middling draw from which you can tuck in behind the lead, as demonstrated by our pace/draw heatmap...

 

Now, we already know the draw for this race, so if I overlay the past running styles of our nine runners, we should be able to work out how we see the race unfolding...

This would suggest that (in draw order) Vivency, Poetry And Art, Perfect Rose and Raha have the best pace/draw make up here, whilst Eponina is expected to attempt to get out and stay out. If she was good enough to do that, she wouldn't have failed to pull it off in each of her last eight starts, so maybe she needs a new angle of attack. That said, this field is so poor she could make the running, get caught and yet still make the frame.

Summary

I think this is Perfect Rose's race to lose. Her yard is in good form, she's in good form, her yard go well here at Kempton, her jockey rides the yard's horses well, but at 2/1 or even shorter, she's not a horse I'd want to lump on with. She beat Lady Alavesa by half a length last time out and is now a pound worse off and she hasn't got much Polytrack form to speak of and is a 12-race maiden. None of this means she can't/won't win (I expect her to!), but she'll represent poor/little value to me at sub-2/1.

Who else will be in the mix? Well, I think Eponina will try (and fail) to win the race from the front, but she's eased a little more in the weights and could well cling onto a place at 20/1, so she's an E/W possible for those who like a longer-odds punt. Other likely candidates to make the frame for me would be Chloellie and Lady Alavesa at 13/2 and 7/1 respectively, but their chances aren't aided by a poor draw. The hope is that if Eponina blasts out from stall 5, they might follow.

The one I think to give Perfect Rose a run for her money is the improving and well-drawn Vivency, everything points to a big run here and it wouldn't be a massive shock if she won here. I think I'd rather back her at 10/3 than the fav at sub-2/1.

So, I don't see much between Perfect Rose & Vivency for the win, whilst it's Chloellie (poor draw), Lady Alavesa (poor draw) or long-shot Eponina (doesn't see races out) for the place.

Racing Insights, 6th January 2021

Today's highlighted race has yet to run, so I'll move straight to Wednesday where we feature the excellent Trainer Stats report and the full racecards for...

  • 1.15 Wolverhampton
  • 4.40 Kempton
  • 6.45 Kempton

Once again the weather has defeated jumps racing and we've just two A/W meetings to consider. Sadly this lack of action has meant that my fairly strict parameters I impose for my own Trainer Stats report hasn't generated any qualifiers for me to assess for tomorrow, so I'm going to look at what should be the best (and last) of our three featured races, the 6.45 Kempton.

This is a 6-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 4yo+ and the trip is 6 furlongs on Standard to Slow Polytrack (as is usually the case here at Kempton) with a top prize of £11,827.50. We start, as ever, with the racecard...

Aberama Gold has three Class 2 wins and a Listed class runner-up finish in his last four starts. He comes here seeking an A/W and was only beaten by three quarters of a length in that Listed race at Doncaster, despite the winner (the excellent Dakota Gold) being 11lbs better off at the weights. Aberama is two from two on Polytrack so far, both over 6f at Class 2 and under today's jockey, whilst more generally he's 5/17 with Shane Gray in the saddle, 5/16 at this trip, 4/5 at this grade whilst five of trainer Keith Dalgleish's last 24 races (20.83% SR) here at Kempton have ended in victory.

Above was a runner-up in a Listed contest at Windsor in June, beaten by three quarters of a length and was a runner again last time out, when defying the effects of a six month absence to come within a neck of victory, getting nabbed very late on by an odds-on favourite on Boxing Day. There's a possibility that this race might come a tad too soon for him, but the stats say he is 112 when returning from 1-2 weeks rest. His three career wins have only come as Class 4 (twice) and Class 5 and this is a tougher assignment than LTO, but trainer Archie Watson's horses do go well here, winning 44 of 207 (21.26% SR) here over the past four years.

Brian The Snail was a runner-up last time out, when the above mentioned Aberama Gold denied him a hat-trick of wins. He was only beaten by half a length that day in that Class 2 handicap and now re-opposes 3lbs worse off here which says he shouldn't really be overturning the result. That said, his A/W record is impressive with 3 wins and a runner-up finish over 6f, including a course and distance win here at this grade two starts ago. He's 112 on Std to Slow and has a chance but will need to find something extra to reverse the placings from Lingfield.

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Gulliver won a big-field, big-money soft ground handicap (21-runner Coral Sprint Trophy) two starts ago and ran better than fifth place LTO would suggest. He was only beaten by little more than two lengths on the Listed race mentioned earlier won by Dakota Gold, coming home less than a length and a half behind Aberama Gold off level weights. He's actually best off at the weights today and if running to his best would be the one to beat, but he was rated 14lbs higher than Aberama that day, so it's not a given that he'll perform as expected.

Streamline won a Group 3 contest here over course and distance when last seen, but that win is tempered by the fact that he hasn't run since and now returns from 16 months off the track. Jockey Adam Kirby is in really good nick right now (5/12 in the last fortnight), but it might take more than an in-form jockey to get this one home first. On ability, he'd be right up there after his third on a Listed event prior to winning that Group 3. He's 2/2 on the A/W, both here at Kempton, but that lay-off is a worry and will probably be reflected in the market when I check the odds shortly.

Tranchee makes up the six runner field alphabetically, but by no means just makes the numbers up. He has been really consistent since switching to David Loughnane's yard last summer and has since only failed to make the frame once in nine starts and that was when he stumbled/slipped at Catterick. Aside from that aberration he has finished 12212332 for his new yard. I'd say he doesn't quite do enough, as he hasn't won enough of those races for my liking but hasn't been beaten by far. In fact he was only two necks behind Aberama Gold when third three starts ago when not having the closing speed required to hang onto second, never mind win.

At this point, I wouldn't actually rule any of them out of it, but I've concerns over the form of Gulliver's yard (0 wins in 23 from 20th December) and the long lay-off endured by Streamline.

Much of what I've written above can be verified by looking at Instant Expert...

...where Aberama Gold, Brian The Snail and Streamline look the ones best suited, whilst it's two of the other three, Above and Tranchee, who top the Geegeez ratings, showing us exactly how competitive this race is.

In 55 recent similar contests, low draws (particularly stall 1) have fared best, whilst the bulk of the runners have either raced prominently (34.6% of the 344 runners) or have been held-up (33.1%), but the smaller number who have led (just 21.2% of the runners) have proved to be marginally the most successful with only mid-division runners proving to at a disadvantage. We can, of course overlay the draw with the pace stats as follows...

...which would suggest Above would seem to have been drawn best for his running style, whilst only Gulliver and Tranchee look unsuited by the pace/draw combination.

So how do I see this one? Well, from a betting perspective, it's fraught with danger and pitfalls and I actually think it has the makings of a really good contest. To try and eliminate some runners from my consideration, I'm now going to look back at their previous races via the head to head facility within the racecard.

Aberama Gold has beaten Brian The Snail (twice), Gulliver and Tranchee and arrives here in the best of the form. Brian The Snail has beaten Gulliver twice, but Gulliver has beaten Tranchee. So, assuming that Brian holds Gulliver, then Tranchee doesn't beat any of the other three here and is therefore discarded.

I also think that race might be too much for Above, who'll probably try to win it from the front and get overhauled late on and I can't be backing Streamline after such a lengthy lay-off. I've absolutely no doubts about his ability to land this calibre of race and had he been out for a run more recently, I'd be very interested. He's probably as big as 7/1 purely because of the lay-off and if that kind of rest doesn't worry you, then he could well be a big price.

Summary

I've finally got it down to three, Aberama Gold, Brian The Snail and Gulliver and I think that's the order I want them in. I do like Aberama Gold here and wasn't contemplating a bet if I'm honest, as I thought he might be shorter than the 5/2 currently available but I'm happy at those odds so I've had a couple of quid there.

Brian The Snail is interesting at 9/1 for place or E/W backers. I can't see him overturning the selection but another run like his last three puts him in the mix late on. To be honest, I've nothing between him and Gulliver other than value of odds. I'm not sure why Gulliver was the early favourite other than by virtue of being better off at the weights. He'll need to make more of an advantage of it this time around.

My final advice, cup of tea (or something stronger if you're now housebound under the new rules), feet up and watch what could eventually be a cracker. Any of the six could win, any of the six could come last, but I've called it how I see it.

Racing Insights, 9th November 2020

First column of the week and Monday's feature of the day is access to the Pace tab for ALL races, which is far more useful in NH races than many people think, whilst our free racecards cover the following quintet of contests...

  • 12.50 Carlisle
  • 2.00 Dundalk
  • 2.48 Kempton
  • 3.40 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Carlisle

And of the five, the one I'm looking at today is the 2.48 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,509, which in order of Geegeez Speed Ratings looks like this...

...and reading the card columns from left to right, we can quickly see...

Form Positives : Flashing Glance, Storm Goddess and Boreham Bill
Form Negatives : Paseo, Cotswold Way

Class :  All bar Cotswold Way, Who's My Jockey and Younevercall are stepping up from Class 3, whilst Boreham Bill is up two grades.

Course/Distance form : We have 3 course and distance winners (Neverbeen to Paris, Who's My Jockey and Younevercall), four distance winners (Boreham Bill, Cotswold Way, Enniscoffey Oscar and The Cashel Man), whilst Flashing Glance has won here in the past and has won at this distance, but not over track and trip.

Trainer Stats Positives : Paseo, The Cashel Man, Who's My Jockey and Younevercall
Trainer Stat Negatives : Storm Goddess, Boreham Bill and Enniscoffey Oscar

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Jockey Stats Positives : Neverbeen to Paris, Enniscoffey Oscar, The Cashel Man and Younevercall
Jockey Stat Negatives : Flashing Glance, Paseo and Cotswold Way

Speed Ratings : with just a 14pt spread between the 9 rated runners, there's not a lot there to differentiate to be honest. Every uses ratings their own ways, of course, but I like to standardise them so that the top rated is scored as 100, so in this instance, our nine runners would be rated from 90.9 to 100, which signifies a tight race based purely on those ratings and as such are inconclusive for us today.

Please note that due to a 506-day absence Younevercall is unrated, adding a further complication to relying on ratings, especially as he won a Grade 2 hurdle two starts ago!

Regular readers will know that my next location is the Instant Expert tab and I'm looking purely at hurdle form here...

...and there's no getting away from Younevercall's claims there. A full line of green and running off a mark a pound lower than his last run. Neverbeen To Paris also has plenty of green and is rated lower than his last win, as is Cotswold Way and Who's My Jockey. Flashing Glance looks good too, but is 0/6 at this level and the final port of call before horse analysis is the pace tab...

...which would suggest the past running styles of The Cashel Man, Younevercall, Flashing Glance, Neverbeen To Paris and possibly Paseo would be best suited to this contest. With 6 of the the ten runners usually racing prominently or wanting to lead, we'll either get a fairly even pace or one/two might go off too quickly, leaving the door open later for a closer.

So, where does all that put me?

Well, it tells me that it's a good looking contest that appears to be a competitive one, as Class 2 races really should be. You could make cases for most if not all of them making certain assumptions/caveats, but the ones I'm keenest on (in purely alphabetical order) are...Flashing Glance, Storm Goddess and Younevercall.

Flashing Glance : Has won six times over hurdles from 2m to 2m5.5f on good or softer ground. He's up in class today as he seeks a hat-trick off a career high mark of 139 after wins off 130 and 135.

He is 6 from 22 over hurdles and in relation to this race, that includes 6 from 14 at odds of 6/1 or shorter. 5 from 17 with no headgear, 4 from 12 going right handed, 3 from 11 on good ground, 3 from 9 under today's jockey, 2 from 4 this year, 2 from 3 over 2m4f to 2m5.5f and 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Storm Goddess : Is a useful mare who is very versatile with ground conditions, handling both soft and good to firm (where this might end up) ground. Won very nicely at Doncaster just before lockdown 1, and has been consistently there or thereabouts in three runs since, beaten by less than 3 lengths at HQ in a big field last time out.

Just two wins from twelve over hurdles so far, but she has made the frame in nine (75%) of them and her 9/12 place record includes 8 from 9 at 16-60 days since her last run including one win, 7 from 7 (inc 2 wins) at odds shorter than 8/1, 5 from 6 (inc 2 wins) on good ground, 5 from 6 (inc 1 win) wearing a tongue tie, 5 from 5 (inc 1 win) this year, 3 from 4 over 2m4.5f to 2m5.5f, 2 from 2 (inc 1 win) under today's jockey and 1 from 1 on good to firm ground.

And last but not least for today, Younevercall : Carries top weight here based on past exploits and he was a very good hurdler when last active. Now returning to hurdling for the first time since landing the Group 2 bet365 Select Hurdle at Sandown over 2m 5f (good ground) in April last year when rated at 155 by the assessor (154 now).

He has won this race twice in the past (2016 & 2018, so...) and for a nine year old, he's lightly raced after just thirteen starts, including five wins from 10 over hurdles from which he is 4/9 under today's jockey, 4/8 going right handed, 4/5 on good ground, 4/5 in fields of 7-10 runners, 4/4 over 2m4.5f to 2m5.5f, 3/4 in October/November, 2/3 in cheekpieces, 2/3 in November, 2/2 at class 2, 2/2 here at Kempton, 2/2 at this trip, 2/2 over course and distance (when winning this race twice) and 1 from 2 in a tongue tie.

Summary

A highly competitive race, but I would hope that the winner comes from my three-runner shortlist. All have obvious claims based on what I've written above, but as with any selections/predictions, they come with caveats.

Flashing Glance needs a career best effort here and has never won at this grade, Storm Goddess also needs to step up because for all her consistency, she doesn't win often enough and Younevercall carries top weight after a lengthy layoff.

If all run to their best, I'd be looking at Younevercall, he knows this track and trip, has won this race twice before and is a former Grade 2 winner BUT might just need the run, especially with having to lug the thick end of 12 stones around.

Racing Insights, 4th November 2020

The highlighted Finoah found one too good for him at Redcar this afternoon and I'm writing this piece ahead of the Newcastle race, so that's all I can report on right now, as I'm now looking forward to Wednesday, where the feature of the day is the excellent Trainer Statistics report, a veritable mine of information, whilst the daily free races are as follows...

  • 12.40 Nottingham
  • 2.05 Dundalk
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 5.50 Kempton
  • 7.50 Kempton

And as I like the Trainer Statistics report so much, I'll using that as the base for my piece today, focusing on course 1 year handicap form, where Team Crisford stand out as follows...

Five wins from sixteen with two further places is good work, and an IV figure of 3.24 is excellent. The team are very profitable to follow in such contests, so let's look at their two runners for tomorrow...

In the 6.50 race, Roulston Scar is a 4 yr old gelding returning from an unplaced finish 25 days ago to race here in a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap over 6f worth £12291, whilst the 7.20 race features Myseven, a 3 yr old filly who was also unplaced last time out (28 days ago) and she now tackles a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m4f for a top prize of just over £7,000.

So, both race in 3yo+ handicaps a similar length of time after an unplaced effort and both will be ridden by William Buick. A closer look at the Crisford's recent 5/16 record shows that they are 15 from 51 (29.4% SR) in handicaps here with horses sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 12/1 since the start of 2017, so they've done consistently well and those 51 runners include the following data relevant to both runners here...

  • 8 wins from 29 (27.6%) after an unplaced effort LTO
  • 7 wins from 22 (31.8%) after a break of 16 to 30 days
  • and 1 win from 4 (25%) under jockey William Buick 

As for Class, sex, age and race length, those runners are...

  • 4 from 14 (28.6%, Myseven) at Class 3, but 0 from 2 at Class 2 (Roulston Scar)
  • 10 from 31 (32.3%, RS) from males and 5 from 20 (25%. M7) from females
  • 12 from 37 (32.4%, M7) from 3 yr olds and 1 from 9 (11.1%, RS) from 4 yr olds
  • 3 from 7 (42.9%, M7) over 1m4f and 4 from 10 (40%, RS) over 6f

Nothing massively conclusive there, but on pure data alone, the filly Myseven edges it. Time now, to look at them in more detail starting with Roulston Scar in the 6.50 race...

Your first 30 days for just £1

The racecard tells us today's jockey William Buick is in decent nick and has a good record at the venue, that our runner has two wins and a place from his last five outings and will run off a mark of 104 today. He has no speed rating, as this is his All-Weather debut and that also affects his T/L/D  numbers, as he has no winning A/W mark to compare, but he did win off 102 two starts ago in another Class 2, 6f handicap when William Buick steered him home despite if being his first run in 359 days.

He's 4 from 7 at this trip in handicaps and is 4 from 5 in 7-10 runner contests. He looks reasonably well drawn here in stall 3 as he does like to get on with it early, but may find some competition for the lead from inside.

He won on his seasonal reappearance (359 days off track), but a combination of Soft ground and only a short 13 day rest probably contributed to him finishing last of 21, some 27 lengths off the pace in the Coral Sprint Trophy at York next/last time out.

No previous A/W run does complicate the issue somewhat, but I'm initially happy to ignore that last run. He won off a long break, back in April 2019, lost second time out then before winning his third start of that campaign, so I'm hopeful he could repeat that feat.

And now to the 7.20 race and Myseven...

Two wins from her last three starts is encouraging, the latest of which was a course and distance success in mid-September. She's 6lb higher than that win and now runs off a mark of 81, which looked too much at Nottingham last time out, although that was over 1m6f and on soft ground, so this looks an easier task on paper at least.

It's hard to really assess what suits her best after just five starts, but she clearly looks better at 1m3.5f/1m4f, where both career wins have come. The pace/draw angle is very interesting here and leaves plenty open to interpretation. The data/stats say they'll all want to hang back, but somebody has to lead. We could get a slow tactical affair, where the race will be taken by a "finisher" or one of the six might just take it on and hope to tough it out.

With that in mind, it might be of interest to read the summary of her two wins, firstly over 1m3.5f at Lingfield "...always prominent, led early, headed over 8f out, pushed along for effort 3f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, stayed on well...", whilst for her C&D win two starts ago "...raced keenly tracking leaders, pushed along in close 2nd 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, pressed briefly inside final furlong, stayed on well and drew away final 100 yards..." , suggesting she might well step forward to try and nick this from the front.

If she responds to the switch back to the A/W, then she could well have a major say here.

Summary

Of the two Crisford/Buick hopefuls here, I do like the filly Myseven slightly more than Roulston Scar. Both will look to bounce back from poor runs in tough conditions on grass, but I think the filly's race is marginally less competitive overall and has fewer runners to contend with.

I can certainly see Myseven making the frame, but much will depend on the favourite Crown Power and how she handles the switch to handicaps. She might not be too badly treated off a mark of 85 after a comfortable win here last time out and as the runner-up and fourth placed horses have both won since (off admittedly much lower marks). Price-wise, I had Myseven as a 3/1 shot behind the favourite, so the market is pretty much in agreement.

Roulston Scar, on the other, hand presents a dilemma, I've got him finishing mid-division at around a 6/1 chance due to a lack of A/W action, but I think he's better than that. He does need to bounce back from a bad defeat at York, but as I said earlier, there were plenty of mitigating circumstances at play. If he runs as well as he was doing pre-York and he handles the surface, then he could quite easily make the frame. In fact he could actually go on and win it, but the ifs and buts prevent me from backing him on this occasion.

 

Racing Insights, 2nd November 2020

Matt ended the first month of Racing Insights, whilst I was taking a few days R&R in Chester. I had a walk around the track on Friday afternoon, but that was close as I came to any racing. We all need a break sometimes and hopefully my mind has been refreshed as we start our second month.

Monday's free feature is the Pace tab on all races, whilst the daily free races are...

  • 3.15 Curragh
  • 3.30 Kempton
  • 4.50 Wolverhampton
  • 5.05 Kempton
  • 7.50 Wolverhampton

And I think I'll take a look at the 5.05 Kempton : a 6-runner, Class 2 handicap for 3yo+ over 1m3f on polytrack where the winner will receive £18,675. The logical place to start is the racecard itself, which I've arranged in order of Geegeez Speed Ratings (SR), as follows...

...where I'm immediately alerted by the green 14, 30 , C1 & C5 icons with the first two denoting recent form and the latter two course form.

So, from the card, Lawn Ranger, Sky Defender and Victory Chime are the ones of interest from a speed rating perspective, whilst it would be Sweet Promise, Sky Defender and Lucander from the prevalence of icons.

You may also see a blue number 1 next to both Victory Chime and Lucander and that's because trainer Ralph Beckett features on one of my saved query tools angles for trainers to follow here at Kempton, because since the start of 2018 his handicappers sent off at Evens to 8/1 are 18 from 67 (26.9% SR & A/E 1.29) with those racing over this 1m3f course and distance winning five of ten (50%) at an E/W of 2.97.

Next on my usual checklist in the Instant Expert tab...

Your first 30 days for just £1

..where green is good, of course and not green is not as good. And the horses at the top of the card fare best here with particular credit to Victory Chime's excellent record at this trip and in small fields. These three horses are already becoming the names I'm mentioning most, but they're drawn apart in stalls 1, 5 and 6. To find out if any of them are drawn "well", we simply click the Draw tab (I apologise for maybe labouring the point, but we do have lots of new subscribers), which looks like this...

...which suggests the draw would suit Sky Defender and Victory Chime most in 5 and 6. Being drawn in the right part the stalls is only half the battle, of course. for example stall 1 with a short run to a bend would help a quick starter, but one not so quick off the mark would get cut up by quicker starters coming across for the bend. And that's where the Pace tab comes into its own, especially when allied to the Draw tab.

The two combine to form what we call a heatmap and for this type of race, although a high draw is best, such runners need to be kept handy but not too close to the action, whilst those who like to lead fare better drawn inside, as seen below...

...which tells us that ideally you have a high drawn mid-division horse, or one drawn in the middle of the stalls that either leads or is also held in mid division and we get a clearer picture when we overlay the past running styles of our six runners on to that heat map, as follows...

I've overlaid the runners in draw order to attempt to give us a bird's eye view of how it might unfold, with the early pace looking like coming from stalls 3 and 6 with 5 just in behind. But of those three leader, Sky Defender would be better off hanging back a bit and the ones with the best pace/draw make-up from my point of view here are Lawn Ranger and Victory Chime.

It's then at this point that I look at the runners themselves to see if there are any obvious positives or negatives before coming to a final conclusion.

Johnny Drama : Two wins from thirteen to date, but 0 from 9 in the UK and no previous all-weather experience. A well beaten (15 lengths) 6th of 9 over 1m4f on soft ground in this grade at Doncaster nine days ago hardly fills me with confidence. Expect double-digit odds, but he's not for me.

Lawn Ranger : Yard's 1 from 144 record here at Kempton since the start of 2018 is an obvious concern, but this 5 yr old has acquitted himself well of late winning and then finishing as runner-up at Class 3 and then Class 2 at Chester, only being touched off by a short head over 10.5f last time out. He did win on Polytrack on his career debut at Lingfield almost three years ago, but is 0 from 12 the A/W since and it's tough to see that record improving here.

Lucander : One of the three that I expect to dominate the contest and despite only being a 3 yr old has already won four times and made the frame on three other occasions from just ten starts. In these lower prize (ie sub-£2ok) Class 2 races, he is three from three and drops in class here after an eight lengths defeat in the Group 3 Darley Stakes at HQ a little over three weeks ago. No disgrace in that result, as he had been a winner than a runner-up in this grade on two big-field handicaps immediately prior to the Darley. Definite contender here, especially with a certain Mr Dettori jumping on board for the first time..

Sky Defender : Back to back runner-up finishes prior to this contest, beaten by a head in a similar contest (6-runner C2 hcp) at Chelmsford but then the same result in a Group 3 contest in Germany, where a run to that level should be plenty here today. He has been kept busy this year, racing 14 times and gets on well with today's jockey (4/14 under Joe Fanning). Particularly adept in small fields, he'll be in the final shake-up here if he doesn't go off too quickly.

Sweet Promise : This 4yo filly looked very useful in Novice contests as a 3yo, finishing 121. She was ten send to race in Group company and made little impact finishing 8th of 8, 6th of 7 and 4th of 5 ans was then dropped back into a Class 2 handicap last time out, but was still 5th of 6. She was almost 3 lengths behind Sky Defender that day and although she's now 5lbs better off today, I still think she finishes behind Sky Defender here, she has picked a habit of finishing towards the rear of the pack.

Victory Chime : the third of my "most likelys" here and seemingly having the best profile for the contest. 8 wins from 20 (40%) to date with all 8 wins coming from 14 runs (57.1%) at 1m2f/1m3f. He has won four of his last seven outings and is five from eight in fields of 1-7 runners. He is 4 from 9 going right handed, 3 from 5 in a visor and 1 from 2 over course and distance.

The booking of Frankie Dettori to ride stablemate Lucander could make this horse look like a second stringer to some, but jockey Rob Hornby is two from three on this horse, so knows how to handle him. The only negative from a stats point of view is that this one has no win from four at Class 2, but all winners at a grade are winless at some point!

Summary

It's a three horse race for me between (alphabetically) Lucander, Sky Defender & Victory Chime. I've got Lucander back in third on my own assessment and also from the data above, but I've little to choose between Sky Defender and Victory Chime.

If Sky Defender runs as well as he did in Germany last time out, he'd have the edge, but I'm concerned he might try and take Lawn Ranger on for the lead, which would be a poor tactic, based on the pace/draw data.  My only real caveat re: Victory Chime is a lack of Class 2 success, but this could be his day. The stats and his own form suggest this could be the day.

For me, it's a marginal call, that Victory Chime just about edges.

Racing Insights, 21st October 2020

Intrinsic Bond was indeed on the premises at Newcastle and ran well for a place, beaten by less than two lengths, whilst Skyace was a faller two from home over in Ireland without ever looking like winning, whereas Molly Shaw was disappointing, hanging right and weakening late on. She was too short for my liking anyway and I'm glad I swerved that one.

And now we turn our attentions to Wednesday, where the feature of the day is the wonderful (IMO at least) Trainer Statistics report and our free races of the day are as follows...

  • 1.50 Hereford
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 3.30 Gowran Park
  • 4.45 Hereford
  • 6.15 Kempton

What I'm going to focus on today is a separate race from the above, but one that has particular relevance to our feature of the day. I've chosen to look that the Trainer, 1 year course handicap figures with my parameters set at a 20% win strike rate and a 33% place strike rate from a minimum of 15 runs in the last year. As ever, my A/E is set at 1.25 and above, whilst my required IV is at 1.50 and above.

Feel free to set your own parameters of course, but I use these to get a decent amount to look at without having too much to consider. And here's the report...

As you've probably noticed, we have four possibles (Adelante, Dancing Feet, Rubia Bella and Serenading) in the 7.15 Kempton : an 8-runner, Class 4 Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack with the winner receiving £5,208 for their troubles. So let's go through the tools to see if we can form an opinion...

Racecard in Speed Rating Order :

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...where we have the top-rated, third, joint fourth and seventh ranked with Serenading standing out with quite a big margin, although she is now stepping up in class/weight.

Pace/Draw Heatmap in draw order : 

...suggests horses running in mid-division, preferably the middle of the stalls, tend to fare best. All four possibles seem to be drawn well for their running styles and the pace in the race looks to be in stalls 1-4, which might pull Rubia Bella along a little quicker than she'd like.

Instant Expert : 

Dancing Feet's previous A/W (and course) success is a positive here, whilst Serenading's 10lb hike for back to back wins is an obvious concern, especially as this is a far tougher contest than her previous races.

Now we'll take a brief, closer look at each of the four in alphabetical order, shall we?

Adelante : Trainer George Baker's 7 from 27 record here over the last 12 months is actually a little misleading as in the whole five years from 2015 to 2019 inclusive, his handicappers were only 4 from 59 (6.8%) here  including 2 from 22 at Class 4, 2 from 16 over 7f and 0 from 14 with female runners.

For her part, Adelante has lost her last eleven races and was was an 80/1 11th of 14 home here over course and distance, last time out a fortnight ago. One to avoid.

Dancing Feet : has a better profile than the runner above, but that's not hard really. An overall 2 from 4 (1 from 2 here) on the A/W is promising and she's from the formidable Archie Watson /Hollie Doyle team, which is 6 from 31 (19.4%) here overall, including 3 from 9 at Class 4, 3 from 17 with fillies and although they're 0 from 6 at 7f, they have won 4 of 15 at 6f.

She has won at both 6f and 7f on the A/W and has won under Hollie Doyle. Both career wins have come when not wearing cheekpieces (0/4 in them), but they're on again today, as they have been in all her handicap outings, including when beaten by 3.5 lengths in seventh behind the re-opposing Clinician last time out and she's on worse terms this time around. That alone suggests she'd not be our winner here today, irrespective of how she stacks up against the others.

Rubia Bella : is very lightly raced and therefore a little of an unknown quantity. A half-length runner-up on her sole start as a 2yr old (here at Kempton at Class 4 over 6f), she then won fairly comfortably on her seasonal reappearance over 6f at Wolverhampton, but was quite well beaten last time out when 6.5 lengths off the pace at this grade, track and trip two months ago.

She was 4.5 lengths behind Dancing Feet that day (she did have Adelante 3.25 lengths further back, mind), but she's 4lbs better off at the weights here, so should be closer, but the yard's 2 from 19 record over course and distance since 2015 is a worry.

And last, but my no means least, we have the form horse Serenading, who comes here on the back of four progressively better runs (3211), seeking a hat-trick after back to back wins at Newcastle over this distance, once at Class 6 and once at Class 5. On form/progression, I think there's more to come from her, but she's 0/4 going right handed, 0/2 here, 0/2 at Class 4 and runs off a mark 10lbs higher than last time out.

In her defence, she has finished 43211 with PJ McDonald on her back and he's 21 from 134 (15.7%) in handicaps here since 2016, including 6 from 34 (17.7%) at this trip.

Summary

If I was to put the four runners in an order that I think they might finish, then i'd go with Serenading, Dancing Feet, Rubia Bella and then Adelante, who I'd be surprised if she wasn't in the last two home.

I don't have much separating Dancing Feet and Rubia Bella and I don't expect either to make the frame, but Serenading is the standout of the four and although she'll face tough opposition from the two market principals, I think that at odds of 5/1 or bigger, she could well be worth a small punt. I see her as a 7/2 to 4/1 chance, so 5's could offer some value, win or lose.

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Beverley : Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Keen, chased leaders, pushed along 2f out, keeping on well 1f out, no more)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polyrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, when you're looking for a couple of winners to sign off a near 9-year stint, a 7/2 fav ridden by a 7lb claimer in a 14-runner contest might not be an obvious pick, but let me attempt to explain. The price still offers some value as I thought he'd be 3/1 or shorter, whilst the racecard tells us...

...that we've an in-form horse who tops our speed ratings and is to be ridden by an in-form jockey whose record improves when riding for today's trainer, who himself is adept at getting LTO winners to win again.

Thanks for reading, I'm back again tomorrow.

Only joking, let's add a little to those bare stats above, shall we?

The horse is a 6 yr old gelding with two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last six outings, including a win LTO off today's mark under today's jockey in the same size of field he faces today that took his record to 3 from 10 (30% SR) in Class 6 handicaps.

And onto the TJ Combo.

The 6 from 27 shown above on the racecard over the last year is part of the following record (taken from the Geegeez Query Tool) since February 2019...

...that also includes a whole stack of angles that are relevant today, such as...

  • 8 from 38 (21.1%) in handicaps & 8/25 (32%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 7/32 (21.9%) with Rhys claiming 7lbs & 7/24 (29.2%) at 11-30dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) after a top 4 finish LTO & 6/21 (28.6%) in 3yo+ races
  • 6/10 (60%) at 6/1 and shorter & 5/21 (23.8%) in 2020
  • 5/21 (23.8%) in fields of 11-14 runners & 4/17 (23.5%) on the A/W
  • 4/11 (36.4%) over 7.5f-1m & 4/11 (36.4%) made the frame LTO
  • 4/7 (57.1%) in September & 2/4 (50%) won LTO

And now we'll close with a look at the LTO Winner Snippet where an overall 2 year record of...

is very good, but longer term and more specifically to today's race, I've found that in A/W handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 since 2014, Gary Moore's LTO winners are 20 from 73 (27.4% SR) for 19.3pts (+26.5% ROI) profit, including the following baker's dozen of relevant angles at play today...

  • 18/66 (27.3%) on Polytrack & 17/57 (29.8%) in sub-£4k races
  • 12/38 (31.6%) at 6-25 dslr & 9/29 (31%) here at Kempton
  • 7/26 (26.9%) at Class 6 & 7/21 (33.3%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 7/16 (43.75%) over a mile & 6/14 (42.9%) during August/September
  • 5/13 (38.5%) with 6 yr olds & 5/10 (50%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs
  • 4/12 (33.3%) on Std to Slow & 4/11 (36.4%) in 2019/20 & 4/8 (50%) in September...

...all pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG (or bigger in places!) as was available at 8.25am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

6.20 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, all out to win by a nose) - nice to get the right side of a tight finish for a change 😉

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard, as is often the case...

...which tells us that our 4 yr old is well clear on the Geegeez ratings and was a runner-up last time out 11 days ago. he was a little unlucky to be caught very late on and beaten by a neck at this class, course and distance by a Kempton specialist dropping in class. 3lb claimer Finley Marsh retains the ride today and will seek to improve upon a decent 4 wins and 3 places from 9 starts on this horse on the A/W to date.

As you can see above, Finley has 2 wins and 3 other places from 10 for trainer Richard Hughes at this venue, whilst the bigger picture for the trainer/jockey combo is that in all A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, they are...

and they include the following ten angles of relevance today...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 54.6pts (+84%) from male runners
  • 15/55 (27.3%) for 61.8pts (+112.4%) at Class 5/6
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 57.9pts (+109.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 35.4pts (+72.3%) when Finley has claimed 3lbs
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 12.3pts (+42.6%) on horses placed LTO
  • 9/45 (20%) for 35.1pts (+77.9%) on Polytrack
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+194.6%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 58.1pts (+341.8%) in August/September
  • and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 11.1pts (+85.4%) in 2020 so far...

...whilst when Finley has claimed 3lbs on a Richard Hughes-trained male A/W handicapper in a 6-11 runner, Class 5/6 contest worth less than £5200, they are...

..including 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+235.1% ROI) with horses who made the frame last time out.

As for Richard Hughes' record with stayers, a closer inspection of his overall numbers reveals that since the start of 2018, his handicappers racing over 1m3.5f to 2m0.5f sent off at evens to 10/1 are...

...and these include...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 44.5pts (+66.5%) in fields of 5-13 runners
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 52.5pts (+89.1%) from those beaten LTO
  • 11/45 (24.4%) for 40.1pts (+89.2%) over 1m3.5f-1m4f
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 27.5pts (+76.4%) on the A/W
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 13pts (+38.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/25 (24%) for 8pts (+32%) on Polytrack
  • 6/24 (25%) for 28pts (+116.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 19.3pts (+128.7%) during September/October
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+98.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.9pts (+76%) for Finley Marsh
  • and 3 from 12 (25%) for 7.8pts (+65.2%) in 2020 so far

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.50 Ascot : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2 (Tracked leader, every chance until winner quickened on over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4,  A/W Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £4,464 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard holds all the clues, as is often the case...

Here we have a 2 yr old colt, who heads the Geegeez Speed Ratings and who seems to be getting better with each run.

Beaten by less than three lengths on debut here at Kempton over 7f and then by a neck at Chelmsford over 7f, staying on well both times, he got off the mark at Sandown LTO 29 days ago when stepping up to today's 1m trip for the first time.

As you can see from the above, trainer Andrew Balding's horse's do well here at Kempton, when either ridden by my distant relative Rob Hornby or when they're making a handicap debut.

The race by race improvement, the Speed Rating and those two stats are more than enough (in my opinion) to warrant the bet today, but let's just have a quick/closer look at those two reports before signing off, starting with...

...the trainer/jockey/course combo, which with handicappers sent off sub-10/1 since 2015 are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 32.77pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, including 7 from 15 (46.7%) for 36.77pts (+245.2%) from runners rested for less than eight weeks....

...whilst Andrew Balding's handicap debutants sent off shorter than 5/1 here at Kempton since the start of 2018 are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 9.91pts (+110.1% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/4 (75%) for 7.21pts (+180.3%) over 7f/1m
  • 3/4 (75%) for 4.29pts (+107.3%) were placed LTO

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.05 Bath : Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3 (Close up, pushed along halfway, not much room and lost place 2f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard tells us that this 4 yr old was a runner-up LTO 24 days ago (beaten by just a neck over C&D by an in-form rival completing a hat-trick, despite our boy not having raced for 215 days) and that he was flagged up on my Query Tool report because his trainer (Roger Varian) is one of the ones I keep an eye out for on the A/W here at Kempton...

Based on his last two runs, which were both at this venue (4th over 1m3f at C2 and 2nd over C&D at C3 LTO), the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map also offers encouragement...

..as do the figures on the Geegeez Speed ratings...

Now, let's add a little bit of flesh to the bare bones above. Why follow Roger Varian at Kempton and do we back all of his runners here? Well, as you'd expect, the answer to the second part is no and being selective answers the first question!

The runners I'm interested are simply Roger Varian's Kempton handicappers sent off at 10/1 or shorter. He will get unfancied winners, but playing at long odds often means a long wait between drinks and I'm not a patient man. Imposing a simple odds cut-off has yielded the following result since the start of 2016...

from which...

  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 21.23pts (+31.2%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 18/54 (33.3%) for 35.96pts (+66.6%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 17/54 (31.5%) for 25.47pts (+47.2%) with male runners
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 29.41pts (+91.9%) during June to August
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 23.12pts (+256.9%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 5.48pts (+54.8%) from top weighted runners

...whilst males competing for less than £8k during June to September after a break of 11-45 days are 11 from 21 (52.4% SR) for 36.99pts (+176.1% ROI) and also applies to Roger's runner Motamayiz in the 7.45 race and of that 11/21 stat, top weights are 2 from 2 as are those who finished as runners-up last time out...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor* & Hills* at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2020

Monday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Dwelt towards rear, headway when not clear run over 1f out, switched right, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by two lengths) Unlike the boss, no dream return to action for me!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Standard to Slow Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As with yesterday (and probably for a while yet), we've no recent form to call upon, but we do know that this 4 yr old gelding has done well at this trip, track, class and field size in the past, although admittedly not all at once!

He has 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 runs in handicaps, a decent enough return that includes of relevance here...

  • two wins and a place from four at this ten furlong trip and beyond
  • the same record of two wins and a place in four efforts in fields of ten or more runners
  • a win and two places from four in this grade, but did also win his only Class 4 contest
  • a win (LTO) in his only previous visit to Kempton
  • and a win (also LTO) on his only attempt on a standard to slow surface

He is trained by James Fanshawe, who in recent history has done well here at Kempton, especially with handicappers deemed by the market to at least have a fighting chance. Numerically, that translates to 54 winners from 198 (27.3% SR) handicappers sent of at odds of 8/1 and shorter since 2013. Backing each and every one of them would have generated 52pts profit a 1pt level stakes at Betfair SP, a return of 26.3% above your initial 198pt outlay.

Under today's conditions, those 198 runners are...

  • 51 from 176 (29%) for 62.86pts (+35.7%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 50 from 174 (28.7%) for 54.92pts (+31.6%) with horses aged 3 or 4
  • 38 from 134 (28.4%) for 53.97pts (+40.3%) at trips of a mile and beyond
  • 18 from 62 (29%) for 24.55pts (+39.6%) during June, July & August
  • and 17 from 49 (34.7%) for 40.86pts (+83.4%) in fields of 11 or 12 runners...

...whilst horses aged three or four racing over a mile or further for a winner's purse of less than £8,000 have won 35 of 111 (31.5% SR) returning profits of 62.92pts at an ROI of some 56.7%. That's a nice little standalone angle, but could be refined by just considering...

  • those running from June to November, who are 29/85 (34.1%) for 69.3pts (+81.6%)
  • or those in fields of 11/12 runners, who are 10/24 (41.7%) for 38.64pts (+161%)

...and if you wanted to combine the pair, then those racing in fields of 11/12 runners from 1st June through to the 30th November are 9 from 16 (56.25% SR) for profits of 42.84pts (+267.7% ROI)...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Olympic Conqueror @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!