Double Dutch, 19th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th August 2015

The milestone of Double Dutch's 600th day didn't, unfortunately, bring about a change in results, as my current cold spell continued.

All betting/tipping runs on cyclical form and I'm of the optimistic frame of mind that each losing bet is taking me one step closer to my next run of good form.

That said, we're still well in profit after 600 days, but maybe not as far ahead as I'd like. The highlight of yesterday was Case Key's decent runner-up finish, defying a drift out to 6/1, but not quite able to catch a winner who made all.

Trimoulet ran well later, but appeared not to see the trip out, relinquishing the lead in the latter stages.

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Case Key : 2nd at 6/1 (adv 9/2)
Fast Enough : u/p (5th) at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Trimoulet : u/p (3rd) at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Injun Sands : u/p (4th) at 15/8 (adv 5/2)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
652 winning selections from 2317 = 28.14%
204 winning bets in 600 days = 34.00%

Stakes: 1199.50pts
Returns: 1308.20pts
P/L : +108.70pts (+9.06% ROI)


Wednesday's selected races are...

5.20 Killarney :

The three previous runnings of this race have beEn won by either Dermot Weld or Aiden O'Brien and I can't see this year's contest being any different. Mr O'Brien has the 7/4 BOG favourite, Johannes Vermeer, a 300,000 Euro son of Galileo, who will hopefully prove to be better second out like many of his siblings have been.

That said, he wasn't entirely disgraced on debut, despite getting turned over at 8/11 at Tipperary almost six weeks ago. Not only do Galileo foals run better second time out, but the Ballydoyle outfit have a good record generally on second runs and the yard is in really good nick (12/27 in the last 2 weeks) and whilst their main focus will be elsewhere today, Johannes Vermeer could very well improve upon the yard's near-27% strike rate at this track.

Dermot Weld's Kitten Loves Roses not only sets the standard on form, but is also expected to provide the stiffest challenge to the Ballydoyle runner. He was fifth on debut at the Curragh at the end of June, with the front three home all winning since and wasn't beaten by far second/last time out. He was overhauled with half a furlong to run, finishing third and only beaten by a neck and a head.

Mr Weld also has a good record on this track with a strike rate better than 1-in-4 and the team will be hoping that Kitten Loves Roses can land this one at 3/1 BOG (Coral).


6.30 Worcester :

I'm normally a little wary of hurdle debutants trading at 2/1 or shorter, but in this case, I can see why Great Fighter is expected to go well today. The yard and jockey are in good form, the yard does very well here at this track and also has an excellent record with both debutants and newcomers to the team.

For his own part, Great Fighter was more than useful on the Flat, winning at trips of up to 1m6f for Saeed bin Suroor. After just five starts, he has few miles on the clock and is an interesting early switcher to NH racing. Ground speed should be decent from his Flat efforts and you know that the Ferguson team will have schooled him well, making him of note here at 15/8 BOG.

Dancing Meadows is the standard to beat here and looked to be coming back into some decent form, with a good run at Perth last time out. Beaten by John Ferguson's Jalingo that day 7 weeks ago was a creditable effort for a horse seeking a first win over hurdles, although she did land two bumpers including one at this track and was considered good enough to run in a Listed race at Cheltenham last November.

The run at Perth last time out was her first run back in the UK after some runs on testing ground in Ireland, she relished the step up from 2m to 2m4f and stayed on well on the better ground in similar conditions to what she'll face today. If I'm honest, I probably wouldn't back her at 2/1 BOG to win this, I'd want a bit more, but as half of a double, that's fine and Dancing Meadows is the one I'd want to be with if the Ferguson runner doesn't perform as expected.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Johannes Vermeer / Great Fighter @ 6.19/1 (6/4 & 15/8 : generally)
Johannes Vermeer / Dancing Meadows @ 6.50/1 (6/4 & 2/1 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Kitten Loves Roses / Great Fighter @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Coral)
Kitten Loves Roses / Dancing Meadows @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet)

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2015

We might not have landed a winner at Towcester on Monday evening, but it certainly wasn't down to a lack of effort on behalf of either jockey David Bass or our horse Cosway Spirit.

Less resilient horses and/or jockeys would have thrown the towel in before the start of the third mile, it was that tough out there. But the partnership persevered and were almost at walking pace when crossing the line in second place at 3/1, a point shorter than advised.

All that happened was that we found one too good for us and there's little you can do about that. Anyway, onto Tuesday and the...

7.15 Killarney:

And a 4/1 BOG bet on handicap debutant Sacrificial who steps up half a furlong from a win over a mile on soft ground at Leopardstown four weeks ago, when he finished 3.5 lengths clear of Tuk Tuk, who has since turned back out and won well.

Sacrificial is trained by Ger Lyons and if you had backed each of Ger's runners in Irish Flat handicaps since the start of 2011, you'd have had 62 winners from 378 bets (16.4% SR) with a £10 level stake on each of them netting a cool £1218 profit at an ROI of 32.2%.

Those priced in the 2/1 to 10/1 banding have won 54 of 248 (21.8% SR) for 121.7pts (+49.1% ROI) profit, whilst those competing for prizes of £13,000 or less have won 58 of 314 (18.5% SR) for 141.8pts (+45.2% ROI).

Those entered in sub-£13k races and priced at 2/1 to 7/1 are 46/171 (26.9% SR) for 106.4pts (+62.2% ROI)

This is Sacrificial's handicap debut and since the start of the 2011 season, Ger Lyons' handicap debutants are 12/65 (18.5% SR) for 28.9pts profit at an ROI of 44.5%. Closer inspection of these 65 runners reveals the following data...

Those priced at 11/2 or shorter are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 30.5pts (+117.3% ROI).
Those competing for less than £8,000 prize money are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 43.5pts (+94.5% ROI).
Those running at the same trip as LTO or stepping up by no more than 3f are 9/41 (22% SR) for 39.8pts (+97% ROI)

Ger Lyons' handicap debutants running at the same trip or up to 3 furlongs more than last time out at odds of 11/2 or shorter for a prizer of less than £8,000 are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 31.3pts (+261.2% ROI) profit.

Sacrifical was sired by Showcasing, whose offspring, to date, have won 51 of their 284 (18% SR) races for profits of 136.7pts at a very healthy ROI of 48.1%, with those sent off at 8/1 or shorter winning 45 of 156 (28.9% SR) for 64.3pts (+41.2% ROI) whilst those who are competing for a winners' cheque of less than £8,000 are 40 from 205 (19.5% SR) for 134.5pts (+65.6% ROI)

Showcasing's offspring competing for prizes of less than £8,000 at odds of 8/1 and shorter are 36/114 (31.6% SR) for 75.4pts (+66.1% ROI).

Sacrificial only got home by a neck last time out, having looked rusty mid-race from a six-month lay off. He had travelled much stronger in previous races and the grit shown last time out also suggests progression is likely. Tne beauty of a narrow win is that he has been given a very workable mark of 87 today. Yes, he's top weight, but he's been consistent so far and we know he handles soft ground.

All things considered, I think the 4/1 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook about Sacrificial looks very generous and there's still plenty of juice in the 7/2 BOG being offered elsewhere, but do check for for yourself by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.15 Killarney

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