Tag Archive for: Kim Bailey

Chianti Classico continuing tendon injury recovery

Chianti Classico is continuing his recovery from the serious injury he suffered at Cheltenham in December.

A winner at the Festival back in March, the now eight-year-old won at Ascot on his return to action and was favourite to further his progressive profile under a big weight.

He had to settle for third, having finished lame, and it soon transpired he had suffered a tendon injury – one that seems certain to have brought his racing days to an end.

Mat Nicholls, who now shares the licence with trainer Kim Bailey, said: “It was very disappointing for everybody and he is in his box, he’s confined to box rest still. He gets a bit of lead out in hand now just to stretch his legs and he will go back to one of his owners’ places in Ireland to continue to recuperate once he’s able to travel.

“I would be very surprised if we saw him on a racecourse again. The morning of the race, we were billed as the English Gold Cup hope if he were to go and win and by that evening all our dreams were over.

“It was gutting for all of us, but the important thing is the horse can do another job and have a nice retirement. Horses like him don’t come around often and part of the game is just to keep searching for the next one.”



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Rocket fires for new Bailey and Nicholls partnership

Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls’ training partnership got off to a perfect start as their first runner Moon Rocket obliged in style at Southwell on New Year’s Day.

Gold Cup and Grand National-winning handler Bailey had always promised his long-time assistant Nicholls that he would add him to the training licence once he passed the 1,500 career winners landmark.

That was achieved thanks to Chianti Classico’s victory at Ascot in October, with Bailey soon putting the wheels in motion for change at his Thorndale Farm base.

Bailey’s last winner in his own right came at Doncaster on December 29, but no time was wasted in welcoming Nicholls to the winner’s enclosure and cementing their new association.

Trainer Kim Bailey has been joined on the training licence by Mat Nicholls
Trainer Kim Bailey has been joined on the training licence by Mat Nicholls (John Walton/PA)

Bailey said: “I’m absolutely delighted, Mat’s been with me for a long time.

“We had an agreement for a long time that he would come on board after I got to 1,500 winners, it has taken me slightly longer than normal but it’s the future and I’m very pleased for him that we have started with a winner.”

For Nicholls, Southwell proved a fitting place to register his first winner as a trainer having spent many of his formative years at the course and he was thrilled to see his name on the scoresheet.

He said: “I’m absolutely delighted and it’s been a long-time coming. I’ve been in racing for the best part of 30 years and it is great that Kim and myself are able to do this going forwards together.

“Southwell is the course I used to go to a lot growing up, so it means a lot my first winner is here.

“We’re delighted to get started and hopefully it is onwards and upwards from here.”

Nicholls is also hopeful of a bright future for Moon Rocket after he enhanced his reputation and remained unbeaten when stepping up in trip for the Jordan Volumix Concrete Novices’ Hurdle.

Sent off the 2-5 favourite after impressing at Doncaster in an easy win over Rebecca Curtis’ Newton Tornado in November, he again dazzled when sauntering home eight lengths clear of the opposition, with the victory potentially earning a return to Town Moor for the Grade Two Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle on January 25.

“When we watched the horse he beat at Doncaster run so well at Cheltenham, expectation levels rose even more and there was a big turnout for him here,” continued Nicholls.

“He’s a nice horse and we hoped he might be able to do something like that. We’ve always liked him and would have been disappointed if he had been beaten today.

“He’s probably entitled to have a go at something a little bit better now and maybe something like the River Don back at Doncaster would be up his street at the end of the month.

“He has plenty of stamina and is going to be a very nice staying chaser one day, but in the meantime he could be a very nice staying horse over hurdles.”



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Chianti Classico ‘comfortable’ but injury ‘is not a good one’

Kim Bailey has revealed Chianti Classico suffered a serious injury in his run at Cheltenham on Friday.

Seen as a genuine Grand National prospect – or even a potential Gold Cup horse – the seven-year-old, who was a winner at the Festival in March, finished a brave third to King Turgeon under top-weight.

He was dismounted afterwards by Ciaran Gethings, and speaking on his website blog at Kimbaileyracing.com on Saturday, the Andoversford trainer said: “The vets were there in seconds and he was taken straight back to the stables.

“It was then obvious that the poor horse suffered an injury in his hind leg. The tendon that goes over his hock had slipped off and down his leg. Pain relief administered, and the one aim was to make him as comfortable as possible to travel home. He is now.

“Poor horse is comfortable and being wonderfully looked after by Erika and the team here. Poor Erika is distraught, as we all are, and how awful for his owners Francis Brooke and Richard Pilkington. We will assess before making any decisions, but what has happened is not a good one.”



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Bailey seeking future pointers from Chianti Classico at Cheltenham

Kim Bailey expects to have a clearer idea of what route Chianti Classico will pursue for the rest of this season after he lines up in the feature event at Cheltenham on Friday.

A Cheltenham Festival winner in last season’s Ultima Handicap Chase, the seven-year-old looked to have improved again when making a successful reappearance in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot in November.

Chianti Classico was due to tackle the Grand National fences for the first time in last weekend’s Becher Chase, but with Aintree’s fixture abandoned due to high winds, he has been switched to the Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Coming Soon Handicap Chase at Prestbury Park.

“It’s been very frustrating. The whole plan was to go to Aintree last weekend, so this is a bit of a fallback situation, but he’s going to go off favourite for a decent race,” Bailey told Sky Sports Racing.

“Ciaran (Gethings) schooled him this morning. He’s never sat on the horse before today and he’ll get on very well with him I’m sure.”

Bailey considers Chianti Classico as a genuine Grand National contender at this stage, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could yet enter the Cheltenham Gold Cup picture if he can win off his revised mark of 157.

“We’d rather hoped he’d have the opportunity to go to Aintree last weekend to find out whether he’d handle the track. I don’t doubt he wouldn’t, but from our point of view it would have been quite nice to see how he did handle it,” he added.

“I said after he won at Cheltenham that he’s an ideal horse for the Grand National and I still believe he is. The problem is if he wins on Friday he’s going to back up the handicap again. He’s been carrying 12st and he’s not the world’s biggest horse.

“He has another 8lb or 9lb to go before he becomes a Grade One horse, so we’ll learn a lot on Friday. If he gets beat on Friday the Grand National will be his number one target, if he happens to go and win we can start thinking of other days.

“You’ve got the Denman Chase and the Cotswold Chase. It’s a big day for him on Friday.”

It promises to be a big weekend for the Andoversford handler, with stable stalwart Does He Know heading north to contest the bet365 Handicap Chase at Doncaster on Saturday.

Trainer Kim Bailey at Ascot
Trainer Kim Bailey at Ascot (John Walton/PA)

The nine-year-old twice finished fourth at Cheltenham during the autumn and Bailey is looking forward to sending him back to a track where he won the Grimthorpe Chase last season.

He added: “Does He Know is in a good place. Ciaran Gethings rode him work this morning and schooled him and that all went very well, so he’s on course for Saturday.

“He’s a proper old-fashioned type of chaser really because he seems to get better as he gets older. His two runs this season have been very good – he’s done nothing wrong.

“Last time he probably didn’t quite get the trip. I know he got three and a quarter miles before at Cheltenham, but that was on quite quick ground and it probably wasn’t the world’s greatest race.

“He’s incredibly versatile (ground-wise). He’s not the biggest and he’s a quirky individual, but he’s got such a huge amount of talent.

“I’m really pleased with him and he’s been an absolute gem for us.”

Trelawne on his way to victory at Haydock
Trelawne on his way to victory at Haydock (Mike Egerton/The Jockey Club)

Bailey also provided an update on plans for Trelawne, who got the better of the high-class Iroko on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month.

“He worked this morning, I was very happy with him and if the ground is soft enough he’ll probably go to Ascot (Silver Cup) next weekend,” said the trainer.

“The Welsh Grand National is a big step up – he’s not been three miles over fences yet. To go from where he was the other day over two-five, I’d like to go three miles next time if I possibly can do, which probably means the Welsh National (three miles and five furlongs) becomes a difficult option.

“I am slightly concerned if we have a dry forecast the ground might be a bit too quick for him at Ascot, so we might have to reroute and see where we are.”



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Classico has chance to put National case in Becher assignment

Kim Bailey is under no illusions about the task facing Chianti Classico when he tackles the Grand National fences for the first time in the BoyleSports Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday.

Winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, the seven-year-old secured another big-race victory on his return to action at Ascot last month, lifting the Sodexo Gold Cup.

Just as he did at the Berkshire track, Chianti Classico will bid to carry 12st to victory on Merseyside, as Bailey looks to discover whether he has a genuine Grand National contender on his hands.

“I’m very happy with him, he’s in good shape,” said the Andoversford-based trainer, who claimed National glory with Mr Frisk in 1990.

“Weight might stop him, but at the end of it he carried 12st last time and what can I do really? It’s annoying the weights have gone up, but we can do nothing about it and with his rating (157) we’re betwixt and between.”

Conditions look set to be far more testing at Aintree than they were at Ascot, but with Chianti Classico having proven himself in heavy ground at Cheltenham Bailey is not overly concerned.

He added: “I don’t think so. I have to say looking at the weather forecast I’m wondering what it’s going to be like – it looks like it could be horrendous on Saturday.

“This will tell us where we’re going anyway.”

The three-and-a-quarter mile contest throws up a rematch between King Turgeon and Gaboriot after the pair finished first and third respectively in Grand Sefton last month.

While that race is also run over the National fences, this weekend’s feature is staged over five furlongs further, which connections of Gaboriot hope will turn the dial in his favour.

“He’s all good, he worked really well on Wednesday morning and seems in flying form,” said Josh Guerriero, who trains the eight-year-old in partnership with Oliver Greenall.

“He’s improved plenty and he’ll improve for the trip because he was flat out the whole way last time. All ours do improve for their first run, so hopefully there’s a bit of improvement there.

“It’s annoying we’re a bit (3lb) out of the weights, but I think in that type of race you’ve got to have a go. If we get beat two lengths I’ll be annoyed, but there you go.”

King Turgeon in action at Leicester
King Turgeon in action at Leicester (Mike Egerton/PA)

David Pipe is seeking a third Becher Chase success, having previously struck twice with the admirable Vieux Lion Rouge (2016 and 2020), who jumped a record 254 Grand National fences during his career.

King Turgeon showed his liking for the obstacles in the Grand Sefton and Pipe does not view the longer distance of this weekend’s race as a negative.

He said: “Vieux Lion Rouge was amazing over these fences and just lit up for the occasion and King Turgeon was pretty good too last time out. Vieux Lion Rouge gave King Turgeon some lessons on how to get round Aintree and he obviously listened to him!

“King Turgeon has always been a very good jumper. We schooled him over Grand National style fences before he ran in the Grand Sefton and he was electric over them. Jack Tudor schooled him again on Wednesday and he jumped nicely.

“We are looking forward to the challenge. He loves the fences, handles soft and heavy ground and has won over almost the same distance as the Becher. He also has a lovely weight (10st 4lb).”

King Turgeon is bidding to complete a hat-trick for the season, with his Grand Sefton success preceded by a dominant comeback win at Chepstow in Late October.

“We fancied him when he won first time out at Chepstow, but we didn’t think he’d win as impressively as he did. He crept nicely into the weights for the Grand Sefton, which he has done again on Saturday,” Pipe added.

“I felt some pressure going into the Grand Sefton. Some of his owners (members of Somerset Racing) were keen to run and others possibly not so keen. It is probably the same going into Saturday, but we think he is up to it.

“There is a real buzz in the yard this week ahead of the Becher and we must never forget the buzz about these fences for the trainer, the yard and especially Jack Tudor – there is always something a bit extra when you have a horse going around those fences.”



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The Kemble Brewery taking next step up the ladder

The Kemble Brewery is seeking to enhance his reputation in the BoyleSports Daily Money Back Meetings Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on Saturday.

Kim Bailey’s five-year-old won both his bumpers before a surprise odds-on defeat on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham behind Cannock Park.

Since then he has won at Worcester before defying a penalty in effortless style at Ffos Las.

He is conceding 10lb and more to his rivals on Merseyside, although Bailey feels he has a nice prospect on his hands.

The Gold Cup-winning trainer said: “I would hope it’s a good opportunity because I want to get some more experience into him before I start taking on the better horses, or perhaps he’s not good enough, I don’t know.

“We like what we see and we’re very happy with him, but he’s very inexperienced in his racing attitude.”

James Owen runs another promising three-year-old in the Listed BoyleSports Acca Boost Juvenile Hurdle.

Owned, like East India Dock and Opec, who have set the standard in this sphere this year, by the Gredleys, Liam Swagger is two from two over obstacles following wins at Market Rasen and Wetherby.

Olly Murphy’s Static was only a neck behind him at Wetherby and takes him on again, but was 18 lengths adrift East India Dock at Cheltenham.

Warren Greatrex’s Quantock Hills is another well-regarded type in the race.



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Trelawne sees off Iroko in Haydock thriller

Kim Bailey was thrilled to see Trelawne come of age after prevailing in a thrilling tussle with Iroko in the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase at Haydock.

The Andoversford handler has never made any secret of the regard in which he holds Trelawne, who was last seen suffering a heavy early fall as a leading fancy for the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, a race won by his stablemate Chianti Classico.

While Bailey revealed his eight-year-old’s confidence was knocked by that spill, there was no sign of it on Merseyside as he travelled and jumped with elan on the front end under Tom Bailey.

Jonjo O’Neill jnr attempted to play his cards late aboard the similarly promising 11-8 favourite Iroko, who drew alongside 7-2 shot Trelawne on the run-in, but the latter refused to yield and passed the post half a length to the good.

“I was delighted with him, we’ve been praying for the rain for a long time. Yes we’ve had our issues, but he’s a very talented individual and he was a grown up horse today,” said Bailey.

“He’s always had the talent and I just think he’s that year older. That fall at Cheltenham frightened him and he was a very sore horse for a long time afterwards, so we gave him a long time to get over it and I just feel he’s come back a different horse from the summer.

“He’s worked well and done everything right. He went to Cheltenham with a great chance, I hated having two runners in the race and when this horse fell I’m afraid I didn’t see the other horse do a whole circuit as I was watching him. I love him.”

Considering future plans, the trainer added: “This horse has to have soft ground and there’s a big race in him somewhere along the way.

“I think the Cotswold Chase (at Cheltenham in January) would suit him really well, but we’ve got a long way to go yet. He was only rated 144 today, the handicapper will have a few words to say after today, but he’s a progressive horse.

“He’s got a few quirks, but that’s why he’s a good horse.”

Roadlesstravelled looks an exciting prospect for Jonjo and AJ O’Neill to go to war with judged on an all-the-way victory in the Betfair Supports Safer Gambling Week Newton Novices’ Hurdle.

Roadlesstravelled (right) was an impressive winner at Haydock
Roadlesstravelled (right) was an impressive winner at Haydock (Ian Hodgson/PA)

The five-year-old cost his connections a pretty penny at £215,000 after winning an Irish point-to-point in May of last year, but he has made a fine start under rules after 17 months off the track.

After following up a successful hurdling debut at Market Rasen with a dominant victory at Wetherby three weeks ago, Roadlesstravelled was a 7-4 favourite to complete his hat-trick at Grade Two level and was soon bowling along in front in the hands of Jonjo O’Neill Jnr.

Harry Skelton and Country Mile was the only one able to go with the leader in the home straight and already looked to be coming off second-best when making a mistake at the final obstacle.

The result was never in doubt thereafter, with Roadlesstravelled finding plenty on the run-in to score by three lengths.

While keen not to get carried away, there was a glint in his trainer’s eye afterwards, as he said: “He’s in good form and likes the good ground. We’ll let him do the talking really, but he’s a nice horse to have.

“He jumped OK, but I think he’d be a bit slicker on good ground. Personally I think he’ll get further, but he’s doing alright at two miles, so we’ll keep him at that for now.

“If you were to sit on him on Monday morning you’d know you were sitting on something as he’s fairly lively, but he’s a great horse with a good attitude and just loves life.”

Steel Ally continued his progress under Dylan Johnston
Steel Ally continued his progress under Dylan Johnston (Ian Hodgson/PA)

Paddy Power and Betfair introduced Roadlesstravelled into their Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market at 40-1, but O’Neill is in no rush to make firm plans, adding: “Let’s see how we go, I would say we’ll miss the heavy ground over the winter and bring him back after that.

“I wouldn’t mind looking at a Betfair Hurdle, but he’d have to have another run in between, so we’ll see what the weather does.”

In deteriorating conditions, Dr T J Eckleburg was a 14-1 winner of the Bet At Your Best With Betfair Handicap Chase for Evan Williams and Conor Ring, while Steel Ally continued the good recent run of trainer Sam Thomas and jockey Dylan Johnston in the Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle.

The latter was a 6-1 shot off the back of finishing second to stablemate Lump Sum in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and displayed a willing attitude to see off the challenge of Beat The Bat by three lengths.

“He’s a nice horse who was on a career-high mark and stepping up in trip. The whole way here I was wary of the rain falling, but he dug in and did it well. He’ll be better on nicer ground,” said Johnston.



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Bailey happy to take his time with The Kemble Brewery

The Kemble Brewery could be set for a step into deeper waters after striking over hurdles for the second time this season at Ffos Las.

Trained by Kim Bailey, the five-year-old scored readily in both of his bumpers earlier in his career and suffered his sole defeat when sent off favourite for a Cheltenham maiden hurdle on his timber bow last November.

Returning from over 300 days off at Worcester last month he wasted little time serving a reminder of his potential when downing David Pipe’s Jurancon, form given a boost by the runner-up when he won cosily himself at Chepstow.

He doubled his tally over obstacles by making all in Carmarthenshire recently, a performance that points brightly to the future.

Bailey admits he could now be ready for a sterner test, but is in no rush to select a next port of call at this stage – suggesting there could be even better to come once The Kemble Brewery gains further hurdling experience.

“We haven’t sat down and worked it out yet, but he will obviously be stepping up in grade now,” said Bailey.

“It will be three weeks before he is due to run again and I’m not sure, I need to have good look at the programme book. He’s gone up 2lb in the handicap and is now 125, so we have a few options really, but I’m in no rush to make a decision just yet.

“His main problem is he’s very lackadaisical with his idea about racing. He’s very talented but if I put a pole in front of him he’d jump it by and inch, no less or no more – that’s just him.

“Once he gets himself organised it will be in his favour, but if he was a human being, he would be one of those who drives you round the bend as he always gives the impression he is not doing anything but is always actually achieving it.”



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Hat Trick (Plus) Seekers in NH Racing

Some horses are better, or better handicapped, than others and, as a result, have been able to run up winning sequences, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will uncover some profitable angles in relation to horses that have won at least their most recent two races; that is, which are chasing a hat-trick, four-timer, five-timer or more.

The focus will be horses bidding for a hat-trick plus specifically in the National Hunt sphere. I have taken data from 1st Jan 2017 to the present day (end of October 2024) for UK National Hunt racing. Profit/losses in all tables/graphs is calculated to Industry Starting Price, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate.

All NH Hat-trick+ Seekers

Let me begin by looking at the starting base figures of ALL horses trying to complete a third win in a row:

 

 

As might be expected, we see a strong win rate of close to one in every four starts, but losses to SP stand at over 13 pence in the £. To BSP this improves considerably but losses still exceed 4p in the £. Here is how that breaks down on an annual basis:

 

 

The results have been a little better in the last three years, but it is unclear whether this a trend or simply an anomaly. My suspicion is that it is the latter.

So, what about the type of NH contest - Chase, hurdle, or bumper (NH Flat)? Let’s see the splits:

 

 

Hat-trick+ seekers in bumpers have seen the best returns (close to parity) but in truth the sample size is modest. The chase and hurdle figures are similar to each other, with perhaps hat-trick+ seeking hurdlers a marginally better proposition than chasers.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Race Class

I want to examine class of race next. Below is a graph looking at the class of race these hat-trick+ seekers ran in comparing their win strike rates within each class:

 

 

This is interesting – from a win perspective at least it seems much harder to win in the two highest classes of race (Class 1 and 2), which stands to reason given horses have likely progressed from lesser contests. Below is a chart illustrating return on investment (ROI) by race class:

 

 

We see positive correlation between the ROI%s and the win strike rates, with hat-trick+ seekers racing in Class 1 and Class 2 events providing the worst value to punters. It should be noted that there have only been a handful of Class 6 races in comparison to the other five classes so we should not get too carried away with the 18p in the £ returns. Having said that, I did back check hat-trick seekers in Class 6 events between the years 2009 and 2016 and they proved profitable to SP in that time frame with an even better win strike rate of 43%. However, since 2018 NH racing no longer has Class 6 events except for some hunter chases.

If we focus on handicap hurdle races at Class 5 level, the lowest grade, hat-trick+ seekers have won 85 times from 253 qualifiers (SR 33.6%) for an SP profit of £15.33 (ROI +6.1%); to BSP +£37.76 (ROI +14.9%). [And once from one run since the research was completed, a 3/1 scorer at Chepstow on 6th November]

The Betting Market for NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers

The betting market is my next port of call. Below are the SP results for different price groupings:

 

 

The best returns - as is usually the case - have come from shorter priced runners (6/4 or less) and to BSP, losses for these runners stand at 1.7%, not far from break-even. The 17/2 to 12/1 group have offered the poorest value and even losses to BSP have been quite steep at 18p in the £ (-18.2% to be exact).

Horses priced 14/1 or bigger win rarely but they have proved profitable to BSP (+£160.38; ROI +24.8%). This has not been due to any ridiculously priced winners: it is basically down to 14/1, 16/1, 20/1 winners paying much more on the Betfair machine.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

I wanted to next check the data for days since last run (DSLR) which of course was a winning run. Here are the findings:

 

 

Horses returning to the track within two weeks have made a small profit to SP. Indeed, to BSP horses off the track for 14 days or less produced a tidy profit of £108.33 (ROI +14.4%). In addition to this, these horses have been quite consistent over the years, with their yearly strike rate always exceeding 30% and five of the eight years proving profitable to BSP. If we look at their yearly A/E indices we can see that six of the eight years saw a figure above 1.00, indicating value. Only 2021 saw a modest A/E index:

 


 

I have added a trendline (dotted) which helps further to show the consistency. It seems that hat-trick+ seekers returning to the track within a fortnight have offered punters good value in the recent past and perhaps this is an area we can exploit this winter.

NH Hat-Trick+ Seekers by Trainer

It’s time to look at trainers now. Which handlers are most adept at finding that good opportunity for their charge to continue a sequence of two or more wins? Here are the trainers with at least 50 qualifiers (ordered alphabetically):

 

 

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, Alan King, Neil Mulholland and Nigel Twiston-Davies look to be four stables to avoid in this context; their strike rates as well as returns are lower than their peers in this cohort. Below are some highlights from a few of these trainers, with some positive angles but also some negatives, too.

Kim Bailey – has a virtually identical record with his hat-trick+ seekers in handicap and non-handicap races:

 

 

The profits to BSP for non-handicaps reads +£13.34 (ROI +32.5%) and in handicaps it is +£12.53 (ROI +29.8%). His record in chases is much better than over hurdles with 16 wins from 40 (SR 40%) for a profit to SP of £26.57 (ROI +66.4%); to BSP it stands at £33.54 (ROI +83.9%).

Bailey has also done well when his runners have been fancied – horses starting either favourite or second favourite have combined to win 25 times from 55 runners (SR 45.5% for a profit to SP of £12.94 (ROI +23.5%). To BSP this improves slightly to +£15.53 (ROI +28.2%). Kim Bailey looks a trainer to keep an eye on.

 

Nicky Henderson – Nicky Henderson is one of the greats, a fact rarely lost on the market. Steer clear of any hat-trick+ seeker from Seven Barrows racing in a handicap. They have won just eight times from 64 attempts (SR 12.5%) for a loss to SP of £37.68 (ROI -58.9%). To BSP he was only marginally off, and losses remained at over 55p in the £.

 

Willie Mullins – The majority of Willie’s hat-trick+ seekers looking to complete the trio in the UK raced at the Cheltenham Festival, and they returned the Irish maestro 22p in the £ to SP and 38p in the £ to BSP respectively. He also had a 38% strike rate with horses that had won at Leopardstown last time out, returning 49p in the £ to SP and 58p to BSP.

 

Fergal O’Brien – O’Brien has made a profit in both handicaps and non-handicaps. He has also made a profit with his bumper runners, hurdlers, and any runner that has started favourite. However, his most eye-catching stat might be his record with fillies and mares as the table below shows:

 

 

Returns of over 63p in the £ coupled with a strike rate of over 40% is remarkable. To BSP his profit stands at £42.37 (ROI +81.5%).

 

Nicky Richards –Richards has excelled outside Class 1 and 2 company. In Class 3 or lower his hat-trick+ seekers have won 35.9% of the time (19 wins from 53) for a profit of £22.49 to SP. This equates to returns of 42p in the £. To BSP the profit climbs considerably to £41.19 (ROI +77.7%). His handicappers have provided all of the profits, with his hurdlers outperforming his chasers.

 

Dan Skelton – Skelton has a surprisingly poor record with hat-trick+ seekers. Any Skelton qualifier that starts as favourite should be treated with caution. These runners would have lost you 23p in the £ to SP, 19p to BSP. Hat-trick+ seeking chasers are also ones to about which to be wary having lost 43p in the £ to SP, 41p to BSP.

 

Venetia Williams – Miss Williams has sent out 71 hat-trick+ seekers in chases of which 17 have won (SR 23.9%) for an SP profit of £24.81 (ROI +34.9%); to BSP this improves considerably to +£59.37 (ROI +83.6%). However, before getting too carried away, there was an SP winner of 40/1 that paid over 70 on Betfair in the sample; taking that winner out, Venetia's figures have produced a loss. It always pays to check for skewed data.

Other NH Hat-Trick+ Seeker Pointers

I have looked at most of the key areas but, before closing, there are a couple more findings I would like to share with you. Firstly, I want to look at how far winners won by last time out (LTO) in terms of lengths. When examining these LTO winning margins I found a clear pattern. Let me share the win strike rates first – I’ve split the LTO winning margins into three groups: won by 2 lengths or less; won by over 2 lengths up to and including 5 lengths; won by more than 5 lengths. Here are the splits:

 


As can be seen the horses that won by further performed best on their next run, from a win percentage perspective at least. But how does that translate to profitability measures?

 

 

Horses that won by over 5 lengths LTO not only have more chance of completing the hat-trick, but they provided the best returns by some way: both to SP and BSP.

Secondly, and in my final offering for this article, I want to share the stats for hat-trick+ seekers that are racing at a track where they have a previous course and distance (shown on the racecard as 'CD') win to their name. There were 745 past CD winners of which 234 won (SR 31.4%) for very small losses to SP of £9.18 (ROI -1.2%). To BSP these runners made a profit of £80.75 (ROI +10.8%). Their A/E index stands at very respectable 0.97.

 

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Summary

Positives

In this article we've seen that some hat-trick+ seekers potentially offer value to punters, especially if backing to BSP (and/or, probably, to early prices with best odds guaranteed).

These include:

  • horses returning to the track within 14 days
  • horses that won by more than 5 lengths LTO
  • handicap hurdlers racing at Class 5 level
  • previous course and distance winners

Also, there are a few trainers to note positively including:

  • Kim Bailey
  • Willie Mullins
  • Fergal O’Brien
  • Nicky Richards (Class 3 or lower, handicaps)

Negatives

In terms of negatives, it seems best to ignore hat-trick+ seekers which:

  • are running in Class 1 or Class 2 events
  • are priced between 17/2 and 12/1
  • won by 2 lengths or less LTO

Some trainers look worth swerving in this contextand these include:

  • Oliver Greenall + Josh Guerriero
  • Alan King
  • Neil Mulholland
  • Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • Nicky Henderson handicappers
  • Dan Skelton chasers and/or favourites

So, it is time to wrap this up, and for me I am off to do some digging for my next article. I hope you enjoyed this one.

- DR



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Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls to forge training partnership

Change is in the offing in the Cotswolds, with Kim Bailey set to add long-time assistant Mat Nicholls to the training license at Thorndale Farm.

Nicholls has been a key cog in Bailey’s operation for 16 years, with the the Gold Cup and Grand National-winning handler always intending to add his name to the license once passing the career milestone of 1,5000 winners.

That is something Bailey achieved when Chianti Classico scored at Ascot late last month and a new dawn for the Bailey-Nicholls partnership will soon begin, with Bailey looking ahead to the future with his trusted ally’s name beside his on the racecard.

Bailey said: “Mat’s worked for me for 16 years and I always said once I got to 1,500 winners I would put him on my license. We actually hoped it would have happened a year ago but it’s took me longer to get to 1,500 winners.

“He’s got plenty of experience and has worked for Nigel (Twiston-Davies), Tom George and Carl Llewellyn and has been with me for a long time now.

“A younger person on the license helps and it will be up to him to bring in new people (owners) as well, it’s very much his future and my future as well so it’s important we work well together.

“We get on very well. You’ll not see much difference other than another name on the license as we don’t need to change anything. There seems to be a lot of red tape to cut through first (before it becomes official) and we hoped it would be ready by now, but it’s not.”



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Bailey: Weather will play part in plans for Chianti Classico

Ground conditions will dictate the next plan of attack for Chianti Classico following his impressive return to action at Ascot on Saturday.

Winner of the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, Kim Bailey’s charge went on to finish fourth in Grade One novice company at Aintree in the spring and made his first appearance since in the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup.

Carrying the welter burden of 12st, Chianti Classico stamped his class with an authoritative victory and will now be considered for a range of options, including a first run over the Grand National fences in the Becher Chase and a possible tilt at Grade One glory in the Betfair Chase.

Reflecting on his weekend success, Bailey said: “I hoped he might go and do that, but it was a very good performance. He had his first canter (since) this morning and seems fine.

“There are all sorts of options and we’re playing it by ear really. We’ll see how he comes out of the race in a week or 10 days’ time and see what the weather does. The weather is a big factor as he really would prefer softer ground.

“The Coral Gold Cup (at Newbury) would be the least likely, I would have thought. There’s the Becher Chase and we’ve also put him in the Betfair Chase. If that comes up with a situation like last year, when there were only four runners, we could look at it.”

While Bailey began the season with hopes Chianti Classico could develop into a National contender, he also received quotes for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the aftermath of his Ascot success.

Kim Bailey has high hopes for Chianti Classico
Kim Bailey has high hopes for Chianti Classico (David Davies/PA)

However, the trainer is not getting carried away, adding: “He’s got another 10lb to go before he becomes that (a Gold Cup horse), that’s the difference of the game really.

“The handicapper only put him up 5lb for winning on Saturday, so we shall see.”

Bailey also provided an update on plans for the high-class Trelawne, who like his stablemate holds an entry in the Coral Gold Cup.

He said: “He wants soft ground and missed his engagement last weekend. He’ll probably go to the graduation chase at Haydock on the same day as the Betfair Chase, provided we get soft ground.

“Like everybody else, we’re wanting some rain.”



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Lauren Keen-Hawkins moved out of intensive care

Amateur jockey Lauren Keen-Hawkins, who sustained a head injury in a fall at Worcester on Sunday, has been moved out of intensive care.

Keen-Hawkins is a key member of Kim Bailey’s team and was partnering the Andoversford handler’s Faerie Cutlass when they came down three flights from the finish in the concluding handicap hurdle.

The 22-year-old was taken to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham by ambulance following the fall and admitted to critical care, but has now been moved onto a ward.

Bailey reported on Thursday that his assistant Mat Nicholls had visited the rider in hospital.

Writing on his stable website blog, he said: “Mat went to Birmingham to visit Lauren Hawkins yesterday and was pleased to see how she looked.

“Lauren has been moved out of ICU and into a ward and although still not fully conscious, she does seem to recognise voices and mentioned the odd words.

“She is improving and although she has a long way to go, the signs are positive.”

Bailey added: “I must say again how wonderful the Injured Jockeys Fund and their team have been to Lauren’s family. Their support has been brilliant and hugely appreciated.”

Keen-Hawkins had previously ridden Faerie Cutlass to finish second at Worcester in July, while she enjoyed a winner at Cheltenham aboard Dandy Dan at the track’s hunter chase night in April 2022.



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Bailey happy to take Grade One shot with Chianti Classico

Kim Bailey believes now is the time for Chianti Classico to dip his toe into Grade One waters in the Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mildmay Novices’ Chase.

Always highly regarded by Bailey, the seven-year-old really came of age at Cheltenham last month, winning the ultra-competitive Ultima by four and a half lengths.

That was his third win of the season, with his only reverse coming when second to Flegmatik at Kempton.

With the handicapper putting him up 11lb, the Andoversford handler saw little point in running in a handicap with top weight and instead he takes on fellow Festival winner Inothewayyurthinkin.

“It was a really good performance at Cheltenham and the handicapper was obviously very impressed as well as he put him up 11lb,” said Bailey.

“We’re lucky that we know he’ll go the very soft ground as it was heavy going at Cheltenham.

“He’s definitely worth a crack at a Grade One now, the only alternative was to run in a handicap this week, but that 11lb rise meant he would have had top weight and if he’d done that and run well or even won, you’d have just been thinking why you weren’t in the Grade One.

“He’s been to Aintree before, we ran him in the bumper at this meeting a couple of years ago so he’s got that experience.”

Inothewayurthinkin and Iroko are both owned by JP McManus but have taken very different routes.

Inothewayurthinkin was an easy winner of the Kim Muir
Inothewayurthinkin was an easy winner of the Kim Muir (Adam Davy/PA)

Gavin Cromwell’s Inothewayurthinkin arrives of the back of a very easy win off top weight in the Kim Muir and certainly looks worth stepping back up in grade having run well behind Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior at Limerick in December.

“Inothewayurthinkin came out of Cheltenham very well and did it very nicely on the day. Gavin is very happy with him, we’ll know more about where we stand after the race on Friday but he’s in good form,” said McManus’ racing manager Frank Berry.

Iroko, who won the Martin Pipe over hurdles at Cheltenham last March, made a very impressive chasing debut at Warwick in November.

He picked up an injury there and was initially ruled out for the rest of the season but arrived back at the yard of joint-trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero quicker than expected and finished a respectable fifth to Grey Dawning in the Turners.

Iroko won at last year's Cheltenham Festival over hurdles
Iroko won at last year’s Cheltenham Festival over hurdles (David Davies/PA)

“Iroko’s preparation for Cheltenham was a bit quick after the hold-up. He ran quite well there and the boys are hoping he’s come forward from that run and we’re hoping for a nice run,” said Berry.

Nigel Twiston-Davies fields Broadway Boy, who was denied a run at Cheltenham due to a minor setback. He wears cheekpieces for the first time.

The Lucinda Russell-trained Giovinco, an excellent third to Fact To File in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, and Henry de Bromhead’s Heart Wood, impressive when landing a competitive handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival, add further intrigue.

“He was very good in the Leopardstown Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s very lightly raced and I think that he’s progressive,” Heart Wood’s rider Rachael Blackmore told Betfair.

“He’s obviously taking a big step up here, from a handicap chase into a Grade One, but we’re really happy with him at home. I hope that he can stay the trip, and I’m hoping that he can take the step up in class.”



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Chianti Classico digs deep for Ultima honours

Kim Bailey’s Chianti Classico produced a smooth round of jumping to take the Ultima Handicap Chase for David Bass and Kim Bailey.

The gelding was one of two runners in the contest for Bailey, and after Trelawne fell early on it was left to his stablemate to carry the hopes of the yard.

He did so dutifully and travelled well throughout to turn for home full of running and claim victory at 6-1, getting British trainers off the mark for the week.

Bass said: “It meant a lot, it’s actually quite a good feeling to win here. It’s a privilege to ride these horses. It’s hard to win here though – 2020 was the last time and it’s been too long.”

David Bass celebrates his Festival win
David Bass celebrates his Festival win (Adam Davy/PA)

Bailey said: “I thought at one stage ‘oh no, David is getting too brave’, but he jumped for fun and was cantering coming down the hill wasn’t he?

“David has been confident the whole way through, so he was right. He was absolutely adamant from day one he was riding this horse (instead of Trelawne). He adores the horse and says he’s a complete terrier, and he’s done that today like a terrier.

“He’s as hard as nails, he’s not very big but he’s got so much ability and is so agile, he always has been.

“When Aiden Murphy and I bought him, we said we’d bring him here, but I never thought it would actually happen!

“We’ve been knocking at the door for a while, so it’s great for everybody that we got it today. It’s huge for the team, having a runner at Cheltenham is what it’s all about.

“Today has been the plan for a long time, we trained him for today.”

On Bass, he joked: “I’m not sure he’s that special, we’ve been trying to get rid of him for ages. We’ve got nothing in common, I’m not a vegan anyway!

“He’s been a huge supporter of the yard and we’ve been together for 11 years now. He’s a do-or-die pilot and I thought he was quite reserved today!”

There was, however, a sad postscript to the race as it was confirmed Highland Hunter had suffered a fatal injury.

Trained by Fergal O’Brien, the grey was formerly with Paul Nicholls, where he was the favourite horse of the late Keagan Kirkby, whose funeral procession he led last week.

O’Brien posted on X: “Absolutely devastated. Thanks for the messages we’re already receiving and those to come.”

Lark In The Mornin ground it out up the hill to land the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle for Joseph O’Brien and J J Slevin.

The bay was a 9-1 chance and kept his powder dry early on in a rough and tumble race in which plenty of combinations parted ways.

Slevin was always handily placed, however, and pulled away from the field ahead of the final flight to hold off all challengers and prevail by two lengths.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 – Champions Day – Cheltenham Racecourse
J J Slevin winning aboard Lark In The Mornin (David Davies for the Jockey Club).

O’Brien said: “We were worried about the ground. We had a pretty strong view that he wanted better ground but I thought J J gave him a fantastic ride and found the best of the ground.

“He saved ground all the way and he had plenty left in the locker jumping the last.

“I’m delighted for everyone connected with the horse, to have a winner here is very special.

“We thought he was coming here with a live chance but so much rain fell we actually had a conversation whether to run or not, luckily we did.”

Slevin added: “All along, we knew this was the plan. We know how difficult it is to have winners at the Festival but Jospeh told me better to have him in the last five than the first five, and that I’d know how he was coping with the ground after the first mile.

“I got a fright when he got to the front so early. It was a bit too soon, but he stayed on well up the hill. I said last week I would be happy to have one winner and that’s my first here since Band Of Outlaws.”



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Kim Bailey salutes ‘complete star’ First Flow, as stable star retired

Kim Bailey’s has paid handsome tribute to his Grade One-winning chaser First Flow after announcing his retirement.

The 12-year-old was last seen winning the Godstone Handicap Chase at Lingfield during the Winter Million meeting, carrying top-weight to a length-and-a-quarter victory over Saint Segal.

That run will be his last as the decision has been been made to retire Bailey’s stable stalwart after a career that saw him win 12 races and amass over £300,000 in prize-money.

A €4,500 Tattersalls purchase with a pedigree that offered little insight into his ability, First Flow became a smart novice hurdler who won his first three starts over obstacles after a brief bumper career.

He then went novice chasing in the autumn of 2019, acquitting himself well when winning four times and never finishing out of the top three in eight starts in his opening season over fences.

David Bass and First Flow winning the Coral Hurst Park Handicap Chase at Ascot
David Bass and First Flow winning the Coral Hurst Park Handicap Chase at Ascot (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

The following term he won three successive starts and shone at the top level when landing the Clarence House Chase at Ascot, defeating the likes of Defi Du Seuil and Politologue.

Reaching a career-high mark of 166, he was subsequently sixth in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the 2021 Festival and from there was consistently placed in graded chases from two miles and a furlong to two miles and six – including a second-placed finish behind Hewick in the Oaksey Chase at Sandown.

“He was a unique horse and a complete star for the yard,” said Bailey.

“It’s very sad to see him retire but it’s something I expected to happen last year and he’s done another season, I’ve got no races to run him in so I think it’s a good time to stop.

“We’ve very much run out of options, he isn’t good enough for Grade One races anymore and he’s carried top-weight in handicaps three times this year.

“He was very tired after the last one and you can only go to the well so many times.

“I probably should have retired him there and then, but emotionally I couldn’t cope with that idea.

“He is a freak of nature, I think most good horses are, it’s been an interesting journey the whole way through because he’s such an interesting character – if he was a human being you would enjoy a night out with him!

“I hope we can find him a home close by so I can keep an eye on him, he is quite special to me.”



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