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Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.20 Wolverhampton : Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, ridden and headed just over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4 Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f ongood ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, at first glance, you'd be forgiven for thinking I'd got jet lag from the annoyingly expensively delayed flight back from the USA by picking a 6yr old gelding with a 0 from 10 record over hurdles, beaten by a combined 108 lengths by finishing 10th of 14 in each of his last three outings, the last over this very course and distance!

So, that's the elephant in the room dealt with, nobody can accuse me of not mentioning stats that don't back up the selection!

He has however moved yards and now makes a debut for Kim Bailey, who has an excellent record at this venue, as does today's jockey David Bass. No disrespect intended to previous trainer/jockeys, but I'd expect this pair to get more out of a horse who is potentially very well treated based on past efforts. In fact he was placed twice around this time last year, so maybe April is his time and he's now running off a mark today of 106 as opposed to 115 & 117 on those two efforts last year.

Stat-wise, I'll keep it pretty simple with an age old formula of trainer + venue =  recent winners + profit as Kim Bailey + Ludlow + 2013-19 = 24 from 123 (19.5% SR) for 34pts (+27.7% ROI) profit, from which there are a stack of viable angles at play today, but here are some of the more obvious ones...

  • 21 from 74 (28.4%) for 71.4pts (+96.5%) from 4-6 yr olds
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 71.5pts (+90.5%) over trips of 2m-2m6f
  • 19/56 (33.9%) for 22.7pts (+40.6%) at ISPs of 5/1 and shorter
  • 18/59 (30.5%) for 33.1pts (+56.1%) with David Bass in the saddle
  • 17/48 (35.4%) for 66.5pts (+138.5%) on Good ground
  • 16/73 (21.9%) for 37.4pts (+51.2%) after a break of 21-180 days
  • 14/70 (20%) for 22.7pts (+32.4%) at Class 4
  • 14/73 (19.2%) for 28pts (+38.3%) over hurdles
  • 10/37 (27%) for 35.6pts (+96.3%) in Novice races
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.8pts (+135.1%) in Novice Hurdles
  • and 7 from 20 (35%) for 31.6pts (+158%) in April...

...whilst from the above...Kim Bailey + David Bass + 2m-2m6f + 4-6 yr olds + 5/1 max = 13 from 18 (72.2% SR) for 37pts (+205.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lissycasey @ 9/2 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Sky Bet at 10.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Monday Musings: Criquette Declares at Seventy

Usually, when news comes through of a retirement or more distressingly and increasingly at this stage of my life, a death of someone you’ve known for a long time, one always takes stock, writes Tony Stafford.

When the retiree, as in last weekend’s case, is Christiane Head-Maarek, or Criquette Head as she has been universally known, the information is greeted almost with disbelief.

After all, her father Alec Head, is alive and still occasionally interviewed at race meetings in France, at the age of 94. Criquette, like Prince Charles, was born in 1948, so has arrived at the age of 70 after 41 years as a trainer.

Just as Margaret Thatcher’s time as Prime Minister (1979-90) almost exactly mirrored my own spell as Racing Editor at the Daily Telegraph – the remaining 20 years there were less worthily spent! – so Criquette’s honourable span as only the second female trainer in France after Miriam Bollack has been an ever-constant for me.

When you travel to some of Europe’s best races it is inevitable that the top people cross your horizon and Criquette was always happy to pass a word or two. I remember especially one day at Maisons-Laffitte when I was over to see a Raymond Tooth runner in a minor race. I bumped into her as she was having a quiet coffee in the owners’ room and we talked for at least ten minutes before the race.

Whether at the track or the major sales, there would always be a smile and a few words from this unique woman. Treve was still to come at that stage but almost two generations earlier, Three Troikas had already been bought by her at Tattersalls sales in 1977 in her bloodstock agent period which immediately preceded her taking out a licence. During her first full season as a trainer, Three Troikas was to give Criquette her first Arc success.

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Ma Biche and Ravinella were two of the many other brilliant fillies that distinguished her career and I can never forget the amazing speed Ravinella showed both when winning the Cheveley Park as a juvenile and then the 1,000 Guineas the following year.

The Heads were one of the English-born training families that made such a major impression in French racing in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Alec Head’s father William returned to France after serving in the British Army during the Second World War, winning the first of his two Arcs with Le Paillon in 1947. Alec had partnered the horse earlier in the year into second place in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Younger brother Freddy was in the saddle in 1966 when William’s second Arc came along with Bon Mot and now, 20 years into his own training career – distinguished with three consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile wins with Goldikova (2008-10) - he is being assisted by the fourth generation, son Christopher in his stables in Chantilly.

Criquette’s only daughter, Patricia, also has her own Arc link, as she is married to trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias, who won the 2012 Arc with Solemia. Now Criquette, who will have her final runner on February 1, will concentrate on helping to run the family’s famed Haras de Quesnay, taken over by Alec from William more than 60 years ago, and still a flourishing nursery of top thoroughbreds.

Another trainer who has held a licence for almost 40 years and like Criquette Head has tasted the highs both on the Flat and more spectacularly in National Hunt, is approaching his 65th birthday this year on an upward curve.

If I were to set a question as to which trainer (using my admittedly incomplete records) had 55 jump wins in 1992-3, then successively 86, 72, 66, 77, 48, 40, 32, then only 9 in 2000-0, would you get it? After three campaigns with 36, 22 and 24, he then had only 6, 6, 9 and a lowest-ever 3 in 2007-8.

Happily the last decade has seen a steady revival with 19, 19, 38, 32, 27, 35, 61, 43, 43, and after two excellent wins on Saturday, 34 and counting this term. That trainer is Kim Bailey, who sat at the table behind my Ascot lunch group on Saturday and I was delighted to congratulate him on First Flow’s impressive 10-length win in the Rossington Main Hurdle at Haydock, his third victory in four starts this term.

First Flow had all the hallmarks of a Bailey win, bold jumping and stamina, accompanied by the compulsory sheepskin noseband. I wondered why he was at Ascot rather than Haydock, but that answer came quickly enough when Vinndication vindicated the locational decision by maintaining a 100% record with a dour display in Ascot’s finale.

It is easy to forget merit in trainers amidst the hunger for new talent. It’s more about fashion these days, but when you think back to Mr Frisk, winning the Grand National and then making all in the Whitbread under Marcus Armytage; and Alderbrook and Master Oats in Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup winning mode, you have to wonder how those single-figure seasons ever happened.

I loved Alderbrook, but probably not as much as Paul Eddery, who had the luck to partner him in his first five Flat starts when he was moved from Sally Hall’s stable to Bailey. There he won twice in seven Flat races, but ended with a modest run in a novice hurdle.  Starting off on 69 for Kim, he won nine more of 17 Flat races, but two of his defeats, both Group-race second places came when he was moved for a brief spell with Julie Cecil.

Either side of that he had five runs over hurdles for Bailey, winning the Kingwell first time out and then the Champion by five lengths from the high-class Large Action. After that spring campaign on the Flat,  he returned to Bailey for the following season, winning at Kempton and finishing second to Collier Bay in the Champion before routing his Scottish Champion Hurdle field, giving lumps of weight all round.

Alderbrook retired to stud, and among many decent staying jumpers, bred the high-class and tough Olly Magern before dying in 2007. His passing coincided with his trainer’s lowest ebb, but with such as First Flow and Vinndication to represent him now, the future looks bright indeed for this talented man.

First Flow runs in the colours of Nearly Caught’s owner, Tony Solomons, former boss of Singer & Friedlander, while other major owners in the Bailey yard include the Rooneys, Paul and Clare. If you approach Cheltenham on the A40 from Oxford, you will see Kim’s sprucely-manicured fences off to the left around six miles from the track. Given the upward mobility and the 70-odd horses he has to represent him nowadays, the optimistic sign which points to them is highly appropriate.

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.05 Ascot : Mehronissa @ 9/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Took keen hold, chased leaders, headway and edged right 2f out, soon chasing winner, ridden and kept on in closing stages, always held)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Gaelic Myth at 100/30 BOG

Why?

Trainer Kim Bailey's record here at Southwell stands at 13 wins from 48 (27.1 % SR) for 34pts (70.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, with hurdlers winning 8 of 32 (25%) for 27.2pts at an ROI of 84.9%.

Gaelic Myth's run today will be the 4000th by an offspring of the prolific, but sadly recently departed Midnight Legend, one of my favourite (as most of you know!) sires ever. And with 550 wins under their belts so far at a strike rate of 13.75% recording profits of 518.9pts at an ROI of 14.5%, it's pretty obvious why I like backing them!

To make such profit from backing so many horses blindly is tremendous and it does thorw up hundreds of profitable angles to take and I've covered many of them  in the near 4 years of SotD so far, so I'll try not to bore you too much and keep it simple!

Since 2009, these Midnight Legend progeny are 71/501 (14.2% SR) for 213.1pts (+42.5% ROI) in handicap hurse contests at 2m 4.5f to 3m 2f, from which...

  • those running at the same class or up/down one grade from LTO : 70/458 (15.3%) for 249.9pts (+54.6%)
  • at Class 4  : 27/182 (14.8%) for 112.2pts (+61.7%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 12/102 (11.8%) for 124.4pts (+121.9%)

Gaelic Myth was a winner when last seen, although that was at Ludlow back in May, some 148 days ago, but he takes a slight drop in trip and also drops down a class to run here, so if race-ready, this should well be within his capabilities. This is backed up by the fact that Kim Bailey's handicap hurdlers dropping down a class are 12/73 (16.4% SR) for 26.4pts (+36.1% ROI) at odds of Evens to 12/1 since 2009.

Of these 73 runners...

  • Class 4/5 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 32.6pts (+51.8%)
  • 4-6 yr olds : 10/44 (22.7%) for 46.2pts (+104.9%)
  • at trips of 2m4f to 3m1f : 8/41 (19.5%) for 33.9pts (+82.6%)

AND...4-6 yr olds racing over 2m4f to 3m1f at Class 4/5 are 7/21 (33.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+238.9% ROI) with a record of 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.9pts (+243.2%) since the start of 2014.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gaelic Myth at 100/30 BOG, which was offered by both Hills and BetVictor at 7.45pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Southwell.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2016

Saturday's Result :

3.05 Ascot : Mehronissa @ 9/1 BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Took keen hold, chased leaders, headway and edged right 2f out, soon chasing winner, ridden and kept on in closing stages, always held)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gaelic Myth at 100/30 BOG

Why?

Trainer Kim Bailey's record here at Southwell stands at 13 wins from 48 (27.1 % SR) for 34pts (70.8% ROI) since the start of 2012, with hurdlers winning 8 of 32 (25%) for 27.2pts at an ROI of 84.9%.

Gaelic Myth's run today will be the 4000th by an offspring of the prolific, but sadly recently departed Midnight Legend, one of my favourite (as most of you know!) sires ever. And with 550 wins under their belts so far at a strike rate of 13.75% recording profits of 518.9pts at an ROI of 14.5%, it's pretty obvious why I like backing them!

To make such profit from backing so many horses blindly is tremendous and it does thorw up hundreds of profitable angles to take and I've covered many of them  in the near 4 years of SotD so far, so I'll try not to bore you too much and keep it simple!

Since 2009, these Midnight Legend progeny are 71/501 (14.2% SR) for 213.1pts (+42.5% ROI) in handicap hurse contests at 2m 4.5f to 3m 2f, from which...

  • those running at the same class or up/down one grade from LTO : 70/458 (15.3%) for 249.9pts (+54.6%)
  • at Class 4  : 27/182 (14.8%) for 112.2pts (+61.7%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 12/102 (11.8%) for 124.4pts (+121.9%)

Gaelic Myth was a winner when last seen, although that was at Ludlow back in May, some 148 days ago, but he takes a slight drop in trip and also drops down a class to run here, so if race-ready, this should well be within his capabilities. This is backed up by the fact that Kim Bailey's handicap hurdlers dropping down a class are 12/73 (16.4% SR) for 26.4pts (+36.1% ROI) at odds of Evens to 12/1 since 2009.

Of these 73 runners...

  • Class 4/5 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 32.6pts (+51.8%)
  • 4-6 yr olds : 10/44 (22.7%) for 46.2pts (+104.9%)
  • at trips of 2m4f to 3m1f : 8/41 (19.5%) for 33.9pts (+82.6%)

AND...4-6 yr olds racing over 2m4f to 3m1f at Class 4/5 are 7/21 (33.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+238.9% ROI) with a record of 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.9pts (+243.2%) since the start of 2014.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gaelic Myth at 100/30 BOG, which was offered by both Hills and BetVictor at 7.45pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Southwell.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2016

Thursday's Result :

2.40 Southwell : Rupert Boy @ 100/30 BOG 4th at 5/2 (With leader, driven halfway, weakened over 1f out)

Friday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Un Ace @ 12/1 E/W BOG

Why?

Trainer Kim Bailey record here at Huntingdon since the start of 2011 stands at 13 wins from 56 (23.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 29pts at an ROI of 51.7%, from which...

  • hurdlers are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 16.7pts (+59.7% ROI)
  • handicappers are 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 21.7pts (+80.2% ROI)
  • and handicap hurdlers are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 20.1pts (+182.5% ROI)

Of those 11 hcp hurdlers, there's a 2 from 3 record from those ridden by David Bass...

...who himself is 10 from 50 (20% SR) for 63.2pts (+126.4% ROI) here at Huntingdon since the start of 2011 and those 5o runners are...

  • 6/31 (19.4% SR) for 19.3pts (+62.3% ROI) over hurdles
  • 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 45.3pts (+161.9% ROI) in handicaps
  • and 4/20 (20% SR) for 26.3pts (+131.7% ROI) in handicap hurdles.

Of those last 20 rides above, he is , of course, 2 from 3 for Kim Bailey and today they team up with Un Ace who has won 5 of 16 his races (31.25% SR) to date for profits of 41.4pts (+258.8% ROI) and in those 16 races has achieved the following strike rates in relation to this contest...

  • 100% here at Huntingdon (1/1)
  • 66.7% going right handed (2/3)
  • 60% running 16 to 30 days after his last run (3/5)
  • 55.6% in races of 4 to 11 runners (5/9)
  • 44.4% on good to soft ground (4/9)
  • 37.5% when rated 140 to 145 (3/8)
  • 30.8% since moving to Kim Bailey (4/13)
  • 25% under David Bass (1/4)

and now he drops back from Listed class to Class 2 today aiming to improve upon Kim Bailey's decent record with handicap hurdlers dropping down a grade, which has seen 7 winners from the 38 (18.4% SR) priced at 9/2 to 16/1, generating profits of 26.7pts (+70.4% ROI).

And in addition to all the above Un Ace is Kim's only runner at this track today and since 2009, Kim's sole representatives at a track have won 123 from 698 (17.6% ROI) races for 127.5pts at an ROI of 18.3% with those running here at Huntingdon winning 8 of 27 (29.6% SR) for 13pts (+48.1% ROI).

And finally (!), not only is Un Ace Kim's only runner here at Huntingdon, he's also the yard's only runner of the day and such horses are 97/484 (20% SR) for 171.1pts (+35.4% ROI) with those ridden by David Bass winning 11 of 40 (27.5% SR) for 18.7pts (+46.8% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.30pm is...

A 0.5pt E/W bet on Un Ace and that's at 12/1 BOG which is widely available, so to take your pick of the firms, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn 2 hours before race due to swelling)

Monday's runner goes in the...

1.35 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crazy Jack @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

I don't know what was in jockey David Bass' Christmas Punch, but he's absolutely flying after the resumption of duties. Since returning from the sport's short Christmas break he has ridden 7 winners from 13 with a 4 from 6 record over hurdles: astonishing!

And it's not often I get to tell you that a jockey is blindly profitable to follow long-term either, but David is. And if you backed every single one of his 867 hurdle rides over the last seven years, you'd have collected 129 times (14.9% SR) for a total of £636 to £10 stakes at an ROI of 7.33%. The ROI isn't huge, but it's solidly consistent and is a good starting point for further analysis as follows...

  • In handicaps, he is 64/497 (12.9% SR)( for 192.2pts (+38.7% ROI)
  • On horses rated 105 to 138 : 67/313 (21.4% SR) for 172.8pts (+55.2% ROI)
  • At Class 2/3 : 30/180 (16.7% SR) for 71.5pts (+39.7% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 30/154 (19.5% SR) for 50.2pts (+32.6% ROI)
  • Over the 3m trip : 9/54 (16.75 SR) for 25pts (+46.3% ROI)
  • Here at Ludlow : 6/37 (16.2% SR) for 9.72pts (+26.3% ROI)

And today David rides Crazy Jack for Kim Bailey, a trainer who has a decent record of his own here at Ludlow over the last three years, as his Class 3 to 5 runners at this venue have gone on to win 9 of 47 races (19.2% SR) for 26pts profit at an ROI of 55.3%, from which...

  • 4 to 8 yr olds are 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 29pts (+65.9% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-7 to 11-8 are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 33pts (+89.3% ROI)
  • Hurdlers are 5/32 (15.6% SR) for 11.6pts (+36.3% ROI)
  • Thoes priced at 8/1 or shorter are 7/29 (24.1% SR) for 9.4pts (+32.4% ROI)
  • Male runners are 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 25.2pts (+93.3% ROI)
  • And to tie all the data together, those ridden by David Bass are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 9.6pts of level stakes profit at an ROI of 68.3%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.30pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Crazy Jack and that's at 7/1 BOG with either Paddy Power or BetVictor, but I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn 2 hours before race due to swelling)

Monday's runner goes in the...

1.35 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crazy Jack @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

I don't know what was in jockey David Bass' Christmas Punch, but he's absolutely flying after the resumption of duties. Since returning from the sport's short Christmas break he has ridden 7 winners from 13 with a 4 from 6 record over hurdles: astonishing!

And it's not often I get to tell you that a jockey is blindly profitable to follow long-term either, but David is. And if you backed every single one of his 867 hurdle rides over the last seven years, you'd have collected 129 times (14.9% SR) for a total of £636 to £10 stakes at an ROI of 7.33%. The ROI isn't huge, but it's solidly consistent and is a good starting point for further analysis as follows...

  • In handicaps, he is 64/497 (12.9% SR)( for 192.2pts (+38.7% ROI)
  • On horses rated 105 to 138 : 67/313 (21.4% SR) for 172.8pts (+55.2% ROI)
  • At Class 2/3 : 30/180 (16.7% SR) for 71.5pts (+39.7% ROI)
  • On soft ground : 30/154 (19.5% SR) for 50.2pts (+32.6% ROI)
  • Over the 3m trip : 9/54 (16.75 SR) for 25pts (+46.3% ROI)
  • Here at Ludlow : 6/37 (16.2% SR) for 9.72pts (+26.3% ROI)

And today David rides Crazy Jack for Kim Bailey, a trainer who has a decent record of his own here at Ludlow over the last three years, as his Class 3 to 5 runners at this venue have gone on to win 9 of 47 races (19.2% SR) for 26pts profit at an ROI of 55.3%, from which...

  • 4 to 8 yr olds are 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 29pts (+65.9% ROI)
  • those carrying 10-7 to 11-8 are 8/37 (21.6% SR) for 33pts (+89.3% ROI)
  • Hurdlers are 5/32 (15.6% SR) for 11.6pts (+36.3% ROI)
  • Thoes priced at 8/1 or shorter are 7/29 (24.1% SR) for 9.4pts (+32.4% ROI)
  • Male runners are 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 25.2pts (+93.3% ROI)
  • And to tie all the data together, those ridden by David Bass are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 9.6pts of level stakes profit at an ROI of 68.3%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.30pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Crazy Jack and that's at 7/1 BOG with either Paddy Power or BetVictor, but I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2015

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2015

Wednesday's Result :

3.15 Lingfield : Kristal Hart @ 9/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn on morning of race due to abcess)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

1.10 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Battle Dust @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

Battle Dust appears to be in fine fettle at present, finishing 121 in his last three appearances. He closed off his PTP career with a win over 3 miles on heavy ground when carrying 12 st 2lbs to a 5 lengths victory at Dungarvan in January.

He was next seen as recently as six weeks ago when making his debut under Rules at Southwell, where he stayed on well and finished strongly on soft ground, but the line came too quickly for him, despite it being a 3m slog first up.

The ground was worse for his only other outing, when he needed every inch of the 2m 7.5f on heavy ground at Chepstow 26 days ago to just get home and the manner of both runs suggest the extra 2 furlongs today should be right up his street. He's 1 from 1 with today's jockey and has already demonstrated a firm liking for bottomless ground.

Another step into the unknown today, as he makes a handicap debut, but his trainer Kim Bailey has shown in the past that he can get his 'cappers to win first time up, as since 2008 his NH hcp debutants are 14/105 (13.3% SR) for 30.9pts (+29.4% ROI) profit, and with today's race in focus, those runners are...

  • 13/90 (14.4% SR) for 42.8pts (+47.5% ROI) when rated at 120 or lower
  • 11/83 (13.3% SR) for 36pts (+43.4% ROI) at the ages of 4 to 6
  • 9/90 (11.3% SR) for 31.7pts (+39.6% ROI) over hurdles
  • 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 30.6pts (+55.7% ROI) when sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 52.1pts (+650.8% ROI) on heavy ground

Kim's 4-6 yo hcp hurdle debutants priced at 8/1 and shorter are 8/32 (25% SR) for 29.4pts (+92% ROI), with all 8 winners coming from the 27 (29.6% SR) runners rated 90-120 with the resultant 34.4pts profit equating to some 127.6% of stakes invested.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.40pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Battle Dust and that's at 9/4 BOG with any one of at least half a dozen firms, so I advise you to...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Warwick

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Sat TV Trends: 29th Dec 2012

NewburyAnother busy Saturday with seven more LIVE C4 races from Newbury, Doncaster and Leopardstown - See all the races covered from a trends angle here.... Read more

Trainer Stats: 22nd March 2012

The Johnston Yard Are In Cracking Form

Andy Newton continues with his weekly look at the yards that are firing in the winners at present.

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Hobbs calls on Breisner to sort out his errant jumpers

Captain Chris (left) jumps out to right

Philip Hobbs has become so concerned about the poor jumping of his stable stars Captain Chris and Menorah that he has enrolled them in school with Swedish ace Yogi Breisner before they head to Cheltenham. Read more

Trainer Stats – 8th Dec 11

More trainer clues this week as Andy Newton highlights which handlers are in red hot form, while there are two names on the cold list to look out for........ Read more

Trainer Stats – 17th Nov

As we head into another huge weekend of NH action Andy Newton gives you the trainers to note, while there’s a Gold Cup winning handler that’s now  46 days without a winner....... Read more