Stat of the Day, 6th March 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.45 Wincanton : Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Soon towards rear, behind 5th, good headway on outside chasing leaders 13th, chance 3 out, went 2nd before next where left well clear, eventually winning by 12 lengths

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £3,170 to the winner...


Pretty much like yesterday, in that the racing on offer today isn't much to write home (or anywhere!) about, so I'm keeping it simple again with an in-form runner who should be suited by conditions.

Trainer Olly Murphy's runners have 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings on the A/W this year (last 7 weeks to be more precise) and some of that is down to this 8 yr old gelding, who himself has four wins from his last eight runs and comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back wins over this grade, course and distance last month under today's jockey.

Those wins took his own A/W record to an impressive 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 22.1pts (+64.9% ROI) and this includes of relevance today...

  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 23.1pts (+69.9%) over 6f
  • 7/28 (25%) for 28.1pts (+100.3%) within 50 days of his last run
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 38.1pts (+211.5%) during January to March
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.9%) in handicaps
  • 6/30 (20%) for 14.6pts (+48.8%) on Standard going
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 16.6pts (+59.4%) going left handed
  • 6/25 (24%) for 22pts (+88%) in blinkers
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.3pts (+96.7%) in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 6/20 (30%) for 21.3pts (+106.5%) on Polytrack
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.2pts (+166%) for trainer Olly Murphy
  • 3/6 950%) for 10.3pts (+171.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9pts (+450%) with Grace McEntee in the saddle (his last two runs)

And with him being drawn in stall 6 with a liking for racing prominently, the unique Geegeez pace/draw heat map also suggests we should get a good run for our money...

...all of which led me to...a 1pt win bet on Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 3.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!