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Double Dutch, 20th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 20th March 2015

Wow! Rosenbaum's gutsy win aside, I got Thursday spectacularly wrong.

I have high hopes for both picks at Chepstow, but was equally frustrated and disappointed at what I saw. It's A Long Road ran poorly and was pulled up well before the finish, whilst Eaton Rock fared little better, coming home a distant last of the seven finishers, some 38 lengths behind his nearest rival and the best part of 100 lengths behind the winner.

And it actually looked worse than that!

All of which meant that Rosenbaum's later victory was only for pride, but he ran well and should be commended for that, if nothing else, whilst our fourth runner of the day was as poor as the first two, finishing 9th of 12.

Thursday's results were as follows:

Eaton Rock : u/p at 7/1 (adv 6/1)
It's A Long Road : PU at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
------------------------------------------
Rosenbaum : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
That Man of Mine : u/p at 11/4 (adv 4/1)

Results to date:
521 winning selections from 1822 = 28.59%
163 winning bets in 472 days = 34.53%

Stakes: 943.50pts
Returns: 1059.17pts

P/L : +115.67pts (+12.26% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

After a difficult few days, winners from these would be nice...

2.30 Sedgefield:

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Light The City is in great form at present and could be difficult to stop/beat. A winner over hurdles two starts ag and a winner of a chase here at Sedgefield just 10 days ago puts him in contention for a cross code hat-trick today. He jumps well, stays well, like the track and conditions and his six wins on the flat will ensure he's not outpaced either.

All told, Light The City is 3 from 6 here at Sedgefield and 2/4 over course and distance in hurdles contests and a quick look at his career stats suggest this is the best time year to catch him and he prefers small fields on soft ground. Tick, tick, tick and he's 11/4 BOG if you fancy him to beat...

...Mad For Road, who was also a winner last time out, finally getting off the mark after a string of near misses. That win was also over this course and distance and whilst an overall hurdles record of 1/16 isn't confidence-inspiring, he's clearly in the best form of his life so far and that probably explains why he's back out within 19 days of that debut win.

Mind you, he did win well that day, heading Beyondtemptation at the last before opening up a four length lead on the run-in. The runner-up has already turned out again, winning herself by six lengths at Hexham last Thursday. If the form holds out and the bookie of Dougie Costello is as significant as I think it might be, then Mad For Road could follow up at 9/4 BOG.

*

9.05 Dundalk:

Friday wouldn't be Friday without some A/W action and this race looks like one we can capitalise from, if things fall in place. It's a non-handicap where all runners carry 9-5, suggesting that those rated highest could be seen as being thrown in and it's no surprise to see that the market is headed by runners rated 79 & 75, with the others on 70, 68 & 61.

Logic says the higher rated would carry more weight in a handicap and so my two here are Poitin at 15/8 BOG and Windward Passage at 2/1 BOG.

Windward Passage is making his A/W debut, but he'll have been schooled on an artificial surface enough before coming here and being by Dubawi should handle this well enough. He's in decent nick, having two wins and a place from his last five starts and is proven at this trip.

Poitin, on the other hand, has raced here in both her starts in Ireland since coming over from England. She was fourth over 1m4f (beaten by less than 3 lengths) five weeks ago, before going on to win over the same trip by 2.5 lengths a fortnight later. She has also won over shorter trips in the past, so the drop back in distance shouldn't be an issue.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Mad For Road / Poitin @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Mad For Road / Windward Passage @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : SkyBet)
Light The City / Poitin @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Light The City / Windward Passage @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : BetVictor)

Double Dutch, 4th March 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th March 2014

More crossbar rattling yesterday, as the results were eerily reminiscent of Saturday's. On Saturday we had Jumps Road's victory let down by a runner-up in race 2 and yesterday we suffered the fate with a solitary winner from Temple Road. Even the names are similar.

Mill I Am did her level best to cope with a drop in trip and a hike in weight and she was staying on strongly at the finish, but failed by just half a length in her efforts to catch the leader, denying us a return to winning ways with a 13/1 double.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Temple Road: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Volito: 3rd at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
---------------------------------
Mill I Am: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 3/1)
Harvest Mist: 4th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
167 winning selections from 594 = 28.11%
55 winning bets in 157 days = 35.03%

Stakes: 310.00pts
Returns: 347.63pts

P/L : +37.63pts (+12.14% ROI)

Despite our recent losing run, we're still in a pretty healthy position. That said, I'd really like two winners today from these:

3.50 Newcastle:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Both Rhymers Stone (2 wins from 3) and Light The City (3 wins and 2 places from 9 runs) are proven on soft ground and look the most likely to succeed here today.

Rhymers Stone was a soft ground winner over course and distance on his last visit here in December and despite a step up in class and a 7lb weight rise, he ran very creditably in a 7-length defeat at Ayr LTO. The ground was much heavier there and he was only beaten by one other horse. Trainer Lucinda Russell has an excellent record with soft ground runners here at Newcastle and at a generally available 5/2 BOG, this could the latest in a string of winners at this track for her.

Light The City, however, will ensure he doesn't get all his own way and is a horse who loves the soft ground and comes here both fit and in good form after three runs on the All-Weather. He won over 1m3f and was a close second over 1m4f, so speed between hurdles won't be an issue. Prior to those outings, he was 121 on soft ground over hurdles in December and looks set for another bold run at 11/4 BOG (Stan James) despite conceding weight all round.

*

4.30 Exeter:

Trainer Vic Dartnall has a good record with horses making their handicap debut and Rugged Jack could well be another such winner here.

With just 5 starts to date, he's unexposed and has shown promise in his runs previously. He won a soft ground bumper on debut at Uttoxeter in mid-December and has since twice manage to finish second on heavy ground, so today's mud shouldn't trouble him unduly. He seems very fairly treated off an opening mark of 99 and as this is a conditional jockeys' race, it's pleasing to see one of the better ones (Conor Shoemark) in the saddle. Rugged Jack has a great chance of a debut handicap win here at a generally available 9/4 BOG.

The consistent, if winless in 16 starts, Revaader is most likely to be the danger in what looks, on paper at least, a pretty poor contest. Despite such a long losing run to open her career, she has been running better of late as finishes of 3232 since Christmas will show. All four runs have been on soft (once) or heavy ground (3 runs) and she was last seen when finishing second over course and distance here 11 days ago.

That result was probably as good as could have been expected up against a 1/6 David Pipe favourite, but she ran to within two lengths of the winner that day and if things fall her way, today could be the day Revaader breaks her duck at 2/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Light The City / Revaader @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Light The City / Rugged Jack @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Rhymers Stone / Revaader @  9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Rhymers Stone / Rugged Jack @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)

Double Dutch, 4th February 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th February 2014

Ain't No Surprise's drift from 5/2 to 3/1 coupled with Maggie Pink's earlier win at 7/4 meant we got a nice 10/1 double on the day and the icing on the cake came when I called the second race just right and netted an exacta at £9.90.

Yesterday's win puts our recent run at four winning days from five and we're slowly building that bank up again.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Maggie Pink: won at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Funky Cold Medina: u/p at 3/1  (adv 11/4)
---------------------------------
Ain't No Surprise: won at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Ocean Legend: 2nd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
(The Exacta paid a nice £9.90 here)

Results to date:
137 winning selections from 487 = 28.13%
45 winning doubles in 130 days = 34.62%

Stakes: 258.00pts
Returns: 268.64pts

P/L : +10.64pts (+4.12% ROI)

It's good to be back in double digits profit and I'm confident of improving the bottom line with these today:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1.10 Southwell:

This one is all about Light The City and Mister Frosty for me, with the former returning to the flat after some good recent form over hurdles, winning twice and finishing second in his last three outings. He won't be inconvenienced by the drop back in trip either, as he's already won three times over 12 furlongs and he also has the benefit of one of the best amateur jockeys in the business in Serena Brotherton, making him a very likely winner at 2/1 BOG with BetInternet & Stan James.

Mister Frosty was an easy winner of this very race in 2012 and races off a mark just a pound higher than that run and he looks one of the best of what appears a poor race and recent efforts at this track over the winter would suggest he'll be the main threat to the selection and can also be backed at 2/1 BOG (Hills & Stan James) for this one.

*

3.20 Market Rasen:

Benefit Cut is the clear favourite here and the best price on offer is the 11/8 BOG at Stan James and it's quite easy to see why. He made an impressive chase debut at Ascot last time out, when finishing second at 10/1 in a stronger contest than this. He recovered from a bad stumble 2 from home to still get within a length and a quarter of the eventual winner. A clear round here today should be more than enough to take the spoils.

Of the challengers, the one who interests me the most is the chase debutant Mystifiable, despite him being a seven-race maiden in bumpers and hurdle events. Yet, although he hasn't won a race to date, he has been consistent and is still improving, finishing in the frame in five of his last six races and produced a career-best performance when second at Uttoxeter last time out to a horse who was subsequently third in a better contest at Wincanton  three weeks ago.

We're obviously having to take his ability over the larger obstacles for granted, but that does get reflected in the price on offer, where 4/1 BOG seems to be the going rate.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Light The City / Benefit Cut @ 6.13/1 (2/1 & 11/8 : Stan James)
Light The City / Mystifiable @ 13.38/1 (15/8 & 4/1 : SkyBet & Coral)
Mister Frosty / Benefit Cut @ 6.13/1 (2/1 & 11/8 : Stan James)
Mister Frosty / Mystifiable @ 13.38/1 (
15/8 & 4/1 : SkyBet)