Posts

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Klassique @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders on inside, smooth headway on inside over 2f out, led inside final furlong, quickened clear to win by 2.5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Like Monday's selection, I'm going to keep this fairly short, simple and hopefully sweet with a 7 yr old gelding who is admittedly on a lengthy losing streak (a feeling I'm familiar with), but has shown signs of coming into some form of late with a string of placed finishes, making the frame in each of his last six runs and has has now been eased a couple of pounds for his return to A/W racing.

He has run well (and won) in better races than this and he certainly gets the trip (placed in 13 of 21 attempts = 61.9% PSR), so I've no qualms on that score, but it's all about the trainer and jockey today, because...

...over the last 30 days : 

  • Trainer David Simcock is 10 from 46 (21.7% SR) for 10.9pts (+23.7% ROI)
  • Jockey Jamie Spencer is 16/76 (21.1%) for 5.9pts (+7.9%)
  • and together they are 6/11 (54.6%) for 16.7pts (+151.5%)

And to be honest with you, those figures would be enough for me on a poor day's racing to make this a selection. They do team up with two others today, including one more here at Lingfield, where Mr Simcock is 45/231 (17.9% SR) for 43.6pts (+17.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and the selection is reinforced by Jamie Spencer riding 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) of those 231 runners for Mr Simcock.

It's not an angle I've just discovered to be honest, as the market seems wise to it, hence the profits of 5.34pts only equating to an ROI of 10.1%, which is why we try to get in/on early. Of that 13/53 record for the Simcock/Spencer alliance on this track, they are 6 from 20 (30%) for 9pts (+45%) over 1m2f/1m4f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by all five firms to have shown their hand by 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.30 Sandown : Firmament @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 5 Handicap (AW)  for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last 11 starts, winning three times including two successes in his last three outings, concluding with a Class 5 win over a mile last time out nine days ago, taking his record over this trip to 23131.

He, like Thursday's pick, is trained by Joseph Tuite and as I went through his recent form and his general September form just two days ago for you, I won't bore you by repeating the numbers. If however, you need a reminder, those details are right here.

What I do want to look at is Mr Tuite's record at getting winners to reproduce their form and since the start of 2015, his LTO winners are 15 from 78 (19.2% SR) for 14.8pts (+19% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • handicappers are 14/66 (21.2%) for 24.1pts (+36.5%)
  • males are 13/57 (22.8%) for 28.1pts (+49.4%)
  • on the A/W : 9/34 (26.5%) for 5.07pts (+14.9%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 12/31 (38.7%) for 14.6pts (+47%)
  • and after a short 6-10 day rest : 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.68pts (+59%)

...AND...from the above... male A/W handicappers priced at 9/2 and shorter are 6/15 (40% SR) for 8.56pts (+57% ROI), of which those who ran just 6-10 days earlier are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.84pts (+161.4%)

...providing the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by more then half a dozen firms as of 6.55pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Goodwood : Threading @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Chased clear leading pair until 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Doro 7/2 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner when last seen 43 days ago. That was a Class 5 contest over 5f and she needed pretty much every last yard of the trip, staying on strongly to grab the win in the closing stages to win by a neck, suggesting that an extra furlong today might help her, as indeed should a drop in class.

To date, she has won 2 of 3 Flat handicaps, she's 2 from 3 on Good ground and 2 from 2 in Flat handicaps on Good ground, whilst trainer Ian Williams' LTO winners sent back out at odds of 1/2 to 11/2 are 123/373 (33% SR) for 39.5pts (+10.6% ROI) over the last ten years, including of relevance today...

  • 5/6 yr olds : 59/165 (35.8%) for 38.8pts (+23.5%)
  • on Good ground : 39/104 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+36.7%)
  • on the Flat : 33/97 (34%) for 29.3pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/73 (39.7%) for 20.5pts (+28.1%)
  • and over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 13/41 (31.7%) for 13.2pts (+32.2%)

Jim Crowley is in the saddle today and since 2008, he is 16 from 93 (17.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+62.5% ROI) on horses trained by Ian Williams, including of note today...

  • in handicaps : 15/71 (21.1%) for 75pts (+105.7%)
  • on the Flat : 11/61 (18%) for 41.1pts (+67.3%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/42 (31%) for 30.8pts (+73.3%)
  • at 21 to 45 days since the horse's last run : 8/32 (25%) for 74.6pts (+233.2%)
  • and since the start of 2016 : 9/25 (36%) for 34.25pts (+137%)

...AND...on Flat handicappers priced at 7/1 and shorter : 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.3% ROI), with a 7 from 8 record (87.5%) producing 29.47pts (+368.3%) over the last two seasons...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dr Doro 7/2 BOGa price available from SkyBet, 10Bet and Sport Pesa at 6.20pm on Friday whilst Bet365 were the best on offer at 4/1 BOG , but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.55 Uttoxeter : Notnow Seamus @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, 2nd from 3rd, led after 5th, well clear last, stayed on to win by 4L)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gainsay 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with this in-form 3 yr old filly, who has won three of her six handicap races to date and her course and distance win two starts ago makes her the only runner in this field to have won at either the track or this trip.

Her 3 from 6 handicap record includes...

  • 3 from 6 under today's jockey Rob Hornby
  • 3 from 5 at this 7f trip
  • 2 from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 from 4 on good to firm ground
  • 1 from 1 here at Lingfield
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

Her trainer, Jonathan Portman is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past 30 days and 3 from 14 (21.4%) over the last fortnight, so we know the yard is ticking along nicely.

And it's definitely worth noting that the Portman horses have won 5 of 9 (55.6% SR) on the turf track here at Lingfield this season, generating 10.4pts profit at an ROI of 115.5% and although that's a fairly small sample size, further encouragement is gleaned via the following...

  • 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 11.4pts (+142.4%) in handicaps
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 12.4pts (+177.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 6.4pts (+91.7%) with Rob Hornby in the saddle

...and when Rob Hornby was riding a handicapper at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 = 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 9.42pts (+235.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gainsay 4/1 BOGa price available from Betway & Hills at 6.50pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

6.30 Nottingham : Classic Pursuit @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Keen, prominent, ridden 2f out, faded inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Full Suit 5/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a winner here at Lingfield last time out over today's trip at Class 6 under today's jockey off the same mark as today a fortnight ago, albeit on Good to Firm turf, so despite a change in surface it does suggest she's in good nick.

The same can also be said for her trainer Archie Watson and jockey Oisin Murphy, as over the last fortnight Archie is 10/24 (41.7%), Oisin is 14/52 (26.9%) and together they are 4 from 4.

Over the past seven days, Archie is 4/9 (44.4%), Oisin is 4/19 (21.1%) and together they're 2 from 2.

Archie's individual record on the A/W has been fantastic pretty much from day 1 of his still relatively short training career and to date, his numbers are 73/321 (22.7% SR) for 53.1pts (+16.5% ROI) on the artificial surfaces here in the UK. That's every runner backed blindly : no filters! However, if you wanted to reduce the number of bets, whilst keeping today's pick relevant...

  • Polytrack runners are 47/213 (22.1%) for 53.5pts (+25.1%)
  • those last seen 4-20 days earlier are 42/166 (25.3%) for 57.9pts (+34.9%)
  • over trips of 9.5f to 13.5f : 27/101 (26.7%) for 80pts (+79.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 22/90 (24.4%) for 32.8pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 18/62 (29%) for 10.14pts (+16.4%)
  • LTO winners are 16/62 (25.8%) for 1.86pts (+3%)
  • and those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 15/51 (29.4% SR) for 1.84pts (+3.6%)

Obviously the main factor from the above is the track itself, so of those 90 who ran here at Lingfield...

  • those that were Archie's only runner on this track that day : 13/38 (34.2%) for 49.1pts (+129.2%)
  • LTO winners : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • under Oisin Murphy : 6/13 (46.2%) for 8.3pts (+64%)
  • and Oisin riding Archie's only runner on the Lingfield A/W track = 3/4 (75% SR) for 12pts at an ROI of 300%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Full Suit 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.35 Newmarket : Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced keenly tracking leading pair until 3f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace and never going pace to challenge)

We end the month with Saturday's...

7.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

OK, I'm a little late with the write-up, as I'm a bit under the weather (hay fever kicking in) and my wifi signal isn't great today, so I'll keep it brief.

I'm well aware that I've backed this horse a few times lately, but I do feel he's due a win, plus I don't like the favourite here at the odds offered, so he's worth taking on today.

Our boy despite those recent defeats for us, has won 6 times within 30 days of his last run, has 5 wins over the minimum trip, 6 wins off a mark in the 60's and 4 wins at Class 5, so conditions won't be alien to him.

His trainer Simon Dow is 22 from 152 (14.5% SR) for 54.3pts (+35.7% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs during the last two years and these include :

  • handicappers at 17/110 (15.5%) for 70.9pts (+64.4%)
  • 6-25 days since last run = 16/76 (21.1%) for 90.7pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter = 16/43 (37.2%) for 29.7pts (+69.1%)
  • Class 5 = 10/59 (17%) for 26.4pts (+44.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/27 (18.5%) for 8.5pts (+31.5%)

...and Class 5 handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter 6 to 25 days after their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 11.64pts (+129.4% ROI)...

Tom Marquand is in the saddle today and has enjoyed a modicum of success on Simon's runners, winning on 8 of 42 (19.1% SR) occasions for profits of 29pts (+69% ROI), from which...

  • male runners are 8/39 (20.5%) for 32pts (+82%)
  • handicappers are 7/32 (21.9%) for 35.6pts (+111.3%)
  • in 2018 : 7/28 (25%) for 20.5pts (+73.3%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 are 6/11 (54.6%) for 18.4pts (+167.4%)

...and male handicappers are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+96.3% ROI) this year, with those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

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Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £574.63

46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)

Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1

Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1

Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)

Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)

Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)

Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)

Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes.  Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking.  SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).

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3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning.  More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:

1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around.  SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race.  Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1.  That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago.  Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount.  Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure.  If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races.  Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.

Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)

1/7—Sheikhzayedroad (good)

1/4—Torcedor (soft)

1/3—Mount Moriah (good)

1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)

 

5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion.  The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1).  FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.

Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.

Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

1/1—Curiosity (good)

1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 12th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £14.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 62.0% units went through – 6/5* - 9/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 74.6% of the remaining units when through – 15/2 – 2/1* - 7/2

Race 3: 58.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 4: 49.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 4/1** - 33/1 (4/1**)

Race 5: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 2/1*

Race 6: 63.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 7/4*

 

  • Mal’s last five Placepot permutations have been successful, albeit some days showed a loss against stakes. That said, a profit over the five days was established.

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Certain Lad) & 1 (Urban Icon)

Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Wufud) & 5 (Power Of Darkness)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Jurz), 4 (Pilot Wings) & 1 (Honourbound)

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Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Lucifugous), 6 (Quick Recovery) & 14 (Scimitar)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Sweet Charity), 1 (Burgonet), 4 (Last Enchantment) & 2 (Fabulous Red)

Leg 6 (4.30): 10 (Recordman) & 8 (King Lud)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: The first point to mention is that there are no course winners on today’s Salisbury Placepot card, in case you thought that the omission was an oversight!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that there seems very little reason in opposing the two winners in the field who look likely to finish in the frame at the very least, namely CERTAIN LAD and URBAN ICON.  The favourite factor below backs up this theory with the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, mainly because of Mick Channon’s great record here this season, his ratio standing at 4/10 before today’s play.  I guess for that reason alone, we should not entirely rule Mick’s ‘second string’ (Dr Smolder) out of the equation.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: The same scenario is in place for race two as was the case in the opening event, with two horses dominating the market as dawn breaks over the city of Bristol this morning.  WUFUD is much shorter than POWER OF DARKNESS at the time of writing though I’ll wager there will not be much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.  The Marcus Tregoning comment about Sir Titan at Goodwood on Sunday proved to be spot on and the same scenario might be in place regarding Power Of Darkness this afternoon.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

 

3.00: Talking of Marcus Tregoning, the trainer has a 25/1 chance involved here and HONOURBOUND might outrun those odds with the trainer having scored with two of his last three runners.  That said, JURZ and PILOT WINGS could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest as respective trainers Roger Varian and Roger Charlton meet head on again at Salisbury.  Their totals at Salisbury down the years; Varian (21% strike rate via 17 winners) & Charlton; 17% S/R via 69 gold medallists.  For the record, Marcus Tregoning’s ratio at Salisbury is a 12% strike rate via 22 winners.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby there is no history involved in this novice event.

 

3.30: Eight of the last nine winners have scored when carrying a minimum burden of nine stones and after taking potential ‘allowances’ into account, ten horses are left to assess.  I’m opting for LUCIFUGOUS, QUICK RECOVERY and SCIMITAR to get us safely through a trappy contest.  David O’Meara has not come to close to winning via his previous four runners at the track down the years but that said, LUCIFUGOUS attracted support overnight and looking at the stats below in the favourite factor column, anything is possible in this event!

Favourite factor: There are three successful market leaders to report from the last decade though be warned, as other gold medallists scored at 40/1, 20/1, 16/1, 14/1, 10/1 (twice) & 9/1 during the period.

 

4.00: Three-year-olds will make it seven winners in a row in this contest today, with all four declarations hailing from the vintage.  Regular readers will be well aware of my stand in these open looking ‘win only’ events, whereby I will offer all four runners into the Placepot equation, hoping that the winner carries the least amount of units into the race.  If the proverbial gun was pointed at my head to name the winner, I guess I would opt for Sweet Charity, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged in the last ten years though the race from a punter’s perspective is not as bad as the previous contest on the card, as the average priced winner is this event was 9/2 during the study period.  Half of the market leaders (5/10) finished in the frame.

 

4.30: The overnight trade price quote of 4/1 for RECORDMAN might prove to be somewhat fanciful by flag fall, with Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubawi having attracted plenty of money since yesterday evening. Six of Saeed’s last fourteen runners have won, whilst 52% of his 31 winners at Salisbury down the year have hailed from his (relevant) three-year-old representatives.  KING LUD might prove to be the rival to offer most resistance on the run to the line.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the Salisbury programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Brighton : Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/3 (Never really got going/involved, raced wide and was beaten by 2.5 lengths)

We continue with Tuesday's...

7.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 5 fillies handicap for 4yo+over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

Well, we've got a 4yr old filly here who I like for this contest for a number of reasons, so instead of the headline stat that I drill deeply into, I'm going to give you some snippets that would suggest a decent run is on the cards. (I could drill right down into the snippets, but I fear there'd be too much info and you'd get bored!)

So, we'll start with the filly herself, back amongst her own sex after a good effort to finish third in mixed company six days ago. That was under similar conditions at Wetherby when beaten by less than 2 lengths despite a slow start coming off a 239 day absence. All her best work was done at the end of the contest, so it's not unreasonable to suggest she'll come on for the run.

Since the start of last season, she has made the frame in 6 of 8 races, winning twice with 2 wins and 2 places from 6 at this 1m2f trip and her only visit here in the past was a course and distance success.

Ryan Rossa takes the ride today and claims 5lbs, he's in good touch right now, winning 5 of 27 (18.5% SR) and 3 of 14 (21.4%) over the past 14 and 7 days respectively and whilst they're not earth shatteringh figures, they're pretty good for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

In addition to recent form, Ryan is 12/83 (14.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+55.9% ROI) when riding for Richard Hannon, about whom I've several snippets in further support of my pick, but I'll just give you three for now, namely...

...last 2 years + Richard Hannon + Flat runners + less than 3 weeks rest = 138/826 (16.7% SR) for 225.1pts (+27.3% ROI), including...

  • on good to firm : 46/289 (15.9%) for 147pts (+50.9%)
  • females are 45/266 (16.9%) for 196.2pts (+73.8%)
  • over a 1m2f trip : 22/90 (24.4%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • females on good to firm are 12/85 (14.1%) for 132.1pts (+155.4%)
  • and females at 1m2f on good to firm are 2/8 925%) for 6.25pts (+78.1%)

...Richard Hannon + Class 5 Flat Handicaps + May to August = 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 120.3pts (+34.8% ROI) with those racing on good to firm ground winning 23 of 136 (16.9%) for 91.5pts (+67.3%)

...Richard Hannon + Lingfield Flat Handicaps = 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 8.88pts (+15.3% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 9/39 (23.1%) for 25.8pts (+66.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.02pts (+62.8%)
  • and over this 1m2f course and distance : 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.94pts (+227.7%)

...and that's more than enough to justify...a 1pt win bet on Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.25pm on Monday with some 9/2 BOG on offer from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th June

HAYDOCK – JUNE 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Sea Youmzain) & 2 (Podemos)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Cribbs Causeway), 5 (God Given) & 4 (Fosun)

Leg 3 (3.25): 7 (Final Venture), 9 (Muthmir) & 4 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Emmaus), 2 (Dutch Connection) & 1 (D’Bai)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Calder Prince) & 2 (Mickey)

Leg 6 (5.10): 1 (Last Page), 3 (Breaking Records) & 2 (Choice Encounter)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: SEA YOUMZAIN represents Mark Johnston’s yard which is approaching ‘boiling point’ now and with support coming in for his recent Nottingham winner, Mark’s Sea The Stars raider can follow up successfully. PODEMOS is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings.

 

2.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests and CRIBBS CAUSEWAY and GOD GIVEN head this year’s vintage representatives from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, foreign raiders often represent decent value from a Placepot perspective which will, likely as not, be the case again with the German representative FOSUN having been declared.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick this time around having won three renewals during the last decade during which time, all ten gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Half (6/12) of the favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—God Given (soft)

 

3.25: FINAL VENTURE has been dropped nine spots by the official assessor since winning this event twelve months ago and cynics could argue that running off the same weight here suggests that Paul Midgley’s inmate is up against it, and then some!  Overnight support suggests that this might not be the attitude to take however and certainly from a Placepot perspective, I have no hesitation is adding Paul’s eight time winner into the equation.  Others to consider include MUTHMIR and BLUE DE VEGA, especially as Robert Cowell’s latter named raider is the pick of the two five-year-olds in the contest, with vintage representatives boasting four victories in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals. That said, the four favourites before the last two market leaders won their respective events had finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/2—Gracious John (soft)

1/2—Final Venture (soft)

 

4.00: Four-year-olds boast the best recent record on the ‘John Of Gaunt’ event, snaring five contests during the last ten years and EMMAUS and D’BAI both offer serious form to bring into the contest on this occasion.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Roger Varian (Emmaus) getting into top form now, the trainer having secured three victories via his last six runners.  The main threat to vintage contenders this time around appears to be DUTCH CONNECTION.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last ten contests.  Aside from a couple of rogue gold medallists at 33/1 and 10/1, the other eight renewals during the last decade have been claimed by horses starting at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the last eleven favourites during the last decade claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Muntadab (soft)

1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)

 

4.35: Tom Dascombe (and Michael Owen for that matter) hold this venue and Chester close to their hearts and the two inmates CALDER PRINCE and MICKEY both have sound claims in this grade/company on the best of their form lines.  I doubt whether both horses will finish out of the frame in all honesty, offering REPUTATION as the party pooper in the field if Tom and Michael are to be denied from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

2/8—Calder Prince (good to firm & soft)

2/2—Pennsylvania Dutch (good & soft)

 

5.10: David Evans has two chances on the card but LAST PAGE is his main player from my viewpoint and 7/1 with Skybet this morning proved too big for yours truly to resist.  Three of the last four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5, stats which also bring BREAKING RECORDS and CHOICE ENCOUNTER into the mix.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the six renewals in the Placepot finale.  Five of the six market leaders have secured Placpot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2018

Friday's Runner was...

6.00 Doncaster :Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon hard pressed, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed at post, beaten by short head)

We continue with Saturday's...

7.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG 

A 7-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old filly in great nick winning twice and placing a further 6 times from her last 9 runs, mainly in mixed company and including a run reading 2231 this season and 2 wins/2 places from 5 at 5 furlongs.

A winner her over course and distance last time out (9 days ago) at her first crack at Lingfield's 5f and although she's up slightly in weight today, the fact she's only running against her own sex should make this a little easier than recent contests.

Form aside, she's also of statistical interest (which is why she's here!), since during the 2013-18 period, Class 4 to 6 runners who won over course and distance last time out, 1 to 10 days earlier by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 176/499 (35.3% SR) for 117.7pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, and these include...

  • on the Flat : 52/152 (34.2%) for 39.3pts (+25.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 58/150 (38.7%) for 54.9pts (+36.6%)
  • May/June : 31/72 (43.1%) for 41pts (+57%)
  • over the 5f trip : 20/64 (31.25%) for 20.4pts (+31.9%)
  • here at Lingfield : 27/58 (46.6%) for 48.8pts (+84.2%)
  • on Good to Soft : 17/48 (35.4%) for 24pts (+50%)
  • in 2018 already : 8/24 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+34.4%)
  • and on the Flat here at Lingfield : 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.3pts (+110%)

...and from the above...Class 5 / Flat / May, June & July = 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 17.84pts (+55.8% ROI) and this relatively simple (by SotD standards anyway!) approach...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 31st May

HAMILTON – MAY 31 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £65.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 84.3% units went through – 2/5* & 28/1

Race 2: 38.0% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 5/2 (2/1)

Race 3: 37.4% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 11/2 – 11/1 (2/1)

Race 4: 26.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/2 – 33/1

Race 5: 65.6% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 9/2

Race 6: 53.2% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 – 7/2* - 7/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Delft Dancer) & 5 (Big Ace)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Lexington Place) & 6 (Dapper Man)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Logi), 3 (Redrosezorro) & 6 (Epeius)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Jabbaar), 6 (Artful Rogue) & 4 (Corton Lad)

Leg 5 (4.00): 9 (Song Of Summer) & 2 (Lady Nathaniel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Natajack), 6 (Quiet Moment) & 1 (Prancing Oscar)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.00: Mark Johnston (see favourite factor comment) saddles his Dutch Art filly DELFT DANCER who won at the second time of asking under soft conditions at Nottingham. Only BIG ACE is standing up against the projected favourite at the time of writing, with trainer Tim Easterby having saddled eleven winners during the last fortnight.  That said, Tim’s juvenile record on turf this season of 2/16 cannot live with Mark Johnston’s 14/48 but then again, few would struggle to get on terms with those two-year-old figures!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market scored having been touted up by yours truly after huge overnight support for the Mark Johnston inmate.

 

2.30: Five four-year-olds have won during the last decade though that said, the last of them prevailed back in 2013.  Four course winners contested last year’s event but we are down to two this time around with conditions seemingly good for LEXINGTON PLACE on this occasion.  DAPPER MAN appears to be the pick of the pair of four-year-olds and there might not be a great deal of daylight between the Placepot nominations at the jamstick.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last ten years though that said, eight of the other nine gold medallists have been returned in single figures.  Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame during the last eleven years.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/8—Jacob’s Pillow (good & good to soft))

1/1—Lexington Place (good to firm)

 

3.00: It’s worth having a look at the negative favourite figures below in case you are ready to plunge into one of the fancied horses in the field.  All five winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-7, though only EPEIUS appears to have a hope of winning the race in the face of stern opposition further up the handicap.  The chance or LOGI to go close is there for all to see, whilst the admirably consistent REDROSEZORRO demands respect.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via five renewals which have been won by horses returned at 28/1-18/1-10/1-10/1-8/1.

Record of the two course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Logi (good to firm)

1/4—Straightothepoint (good)

 

3.30: Keith Dalgleish saddles two of the remaining six runners with Trading Punches having been withdrawn.  Keith’s ‘course specialist’ CORTON LAD can rarely be overlooked at this venue, whilst ARTFUL ROGUE would not be winning out of turn for the team.  Either way, both horses are up against it with JABBAAR having been declared to run again following his Chester victory on Saturday.  A six pound penalty might not be enough to stop Iain Jardine’s Medicean gelding in his tracks.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

3/15—Corton Lad (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.00: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 and the Irish raider LADY NATHANIEL looks to have been well placed by canny trainer Ger Lyons.  That said, it might be as well to keep both feet on the ground as Ger’s record this side of the Irish Sea on the level stands at 5/93 down the years on turf.  Iain Jardine has definite claims of potentially saddling two successive winners on the card having declared SONG OF SUMMER, though Iain’s Choisir filly hails from the wrong end of the handicap according to the weight trends.

Favourite factor:  Two favourites have won via six renewals at 4/1** & 5/4.  That said, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1 though conversely, four of the last five market leaders are still being sought by detectives in the area, having finished out with the washing.

 

4.30: Four-year-olds have won all three contests and the trio of vintage representatives will do for me against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely NATAJACK, QUIET MOMENT and PRANCING OSCAR.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far by snaring gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.