Posts

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date...

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above...O'Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which...

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

...and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date...

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above...O'Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which...

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

...and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2018

Monday's Pick was...

5.15 Wolverhampton : Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG 11th at 4/1 (Report to follow, but a switch of tactics to front-running was clearly a poor decision)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in a similar Class 6, 6 furlong handicap at Chelmsford when last seen 26 days ago and Fink Hill was four lengths behind her in fourth place, but has since reappeared to win a Class 5 contest, so I'm hoping/expecting the form to hold out.

The Dean Ivory/Robert Winston trainer/jockey combo has had a good year so far, combining for 10 wins from 37 (27% SR) and 28.2pts (+76.1% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since New Year, including...

  • 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 5.84pts (+53.1%) over 6f
  • 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) at Class 6
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 29.9pts (+598%) here at Lingfield, which is excellent.

And the bigger picture?

Dean Ivory + Lingfield A/W handicaps + 7/4 to 10/1 + 2013 to 2018 = 22/95 (23.2% SR) for 61.5pts (+64.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 6 = 8/40 (20%) for 19.9pts (+49.7%)
  • 6 furlongs C&D = 10/36 (27.8%) for 23.6pts (+65.7%)
  • Robert Winston = 7/33 (33.3%) for 13.8pts (+42%)
  • November/December = 7/28 (25%) for 28.2pts (+100.8%)
  • females = 6/25 (24%) for 19.75pts (+79%)
  • 4 yr olds = 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.8pts (+103.3%)
  • 2018 = 6/15 (40%) for 35.4pts (+236.1%)
  • and LTO winners = 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.4pts (+109.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, SkyBet and BlackType (latter non-BOG until 10am) at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.25 Musselburgh : Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch, headway on inside after 4 out, every chance from 2 out and throughout run in, just failed by a nose) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Hurdle  for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Good To Soft ground (soft in places & rain is forecast) worth £6583 to the winner...

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has some good soft ground form in France ahead of a victory on his UK debut 19 days ago on Good to soft ground. That was not only his first outing for trainer Philip Hobbs, but it was also despite a near-10 months layoff from racing.

Mr Hobbs is having an excellent month so far, racking up 18 winners from 88 (20.5% SR) for 114.4pts (+130% ROI) this November, from which his hurdlers are 11 from 45 (24.4%) for 115.9pts (+257.5%)

His record with LTO winners running in handicap hurdle contests within 25 days of their last outing currently stands at 34 from 113 (30.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+44.2% ROI) and these include...

  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 20.4pts (+45.3%) at Class 3
  • 15/41 (36.6%) for 46.1pts (+112.3%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 19.6pts (+65.4%) won a Novice race LTO

And finally for today, Philip Hobbs' runners on their second start for the yard are 26/137 (19% SR) for 96.6pts (+70.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • those whose yard debut was in the previous 2 months : 21/90 (23.3%) for 132.4pts (+147.2%)
  • hurdlers are 15/83 (18.1%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • and hurdlers whose yard debut was in the previous 2 months : 12/55 (21.8%) for 71.3pts (+129.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on same pace towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner Listed Race for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £20983 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding initially caught my eye, as it featured on the Shortlist report, so I did a little bit of digging and found that he is...

  • 8 from 14 over the 6f trip
  • 5 from 11 in blinkers
  • 5 from 9 at odds of 13/8 to 4/1
  • 3 from 5 in October/November
  • 2 from 4 in Listed company
  • 2 from 4 ridden by James Doyle
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance after he won this very race last year.

He won the race last year, when carrying 9-6 under James Doyle and James rides again, but the horse carries 3lbs less.

Trainer Hugo Palmer's record in Listed races since the start of 2013 stands at 15 wins from 119 (12.6% SR) for 31.3pts (+26.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 to 5 yr olds at 14/94 (14.9%) for 54.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in fields of 8-13 runners : 12/77 (15.6%) for 63pts (+81.8%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/19 (21.1%) for 10.7pts (+56.3%)

Gifted Master now returns to action after a 12-week break, but I'm not over concerned about his lack of recent action, because Hugo Palmer's horses running after a break to 2 to 5 months are 27/97 (27.8% SR) for 97.9pts (+101% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which the following are relevant today...

  • Sub-10/1 shots are 26/71 (36.6%) for 80.2pts (+113%)
  • males are 22/60 (36.7%) for 105.7pts (+176.1%)
  • those rated (OR) 80 and above are 15/48 (31.3%) for 51.4pts (+107.1%)
  • in non-handicaps : 12/43 (27.9%) for 47.3pts (+109.9%)
  • on the A/W : 14/36 (38.9%) for 93pts (+258.4%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.3pts (+134.9%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 4/11 (36.4%) for 54.5pts (+495.4%)

...whilst sub 10/1 males rated 80 and above are 14 from 28 (50% SR) for 66.2pts (+236.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG , a price widely available at 6.20pm on Friday evening, although Hills were offering another quarter point for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.30 Kempton : Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Shade keen, chased leaders on inside, went 2nd at 9th, pushed along and one pace before 3 out, eased down when no chance with winner) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lillington @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Soft ground worth £9748 to the winner...

Why?

Three of the six on show here today have been off the track for some time (164 to 218 days) with the other three having raced as recently as 17 to 46 days ago and of these three, our 6 yr old gelding is definitely the form horse, having won two of his last three and wasn't disgraced in finishing fourth at Cheltenham LTO in a Class 2 contest 17 days ago.

He's now eased a pound by the assessor and takes a drop in class to attempt to improve on a chasing record of 2 wins and 2 places from 7 attempts (all whilst wearing a tongue tie), including...

  • 2 wins and a place from 5 under today's jockey Tom Scudamore
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in handicap chases
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins from 2 over trips of 2m-2m1f
  • and whilst he hasn't won on soft ground yet, he has made the frame in all three efforts to date, including 2 runs over fences.

His trainer Colin Tizzard is in good form too with 6 winners from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.02pts (+104.4% ROI) over the last week and whilst he doesn't run many here at "leafy", those that have been sent here are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 1.58pts (+17.6%) in NH handicaps since the start of 2016, from which Class 3 runners are 3/6 (50%) for 4.58pts (+76.4%), whilst Class 3 handicap chasers are 2 from 4 950%) for 2.76pts (+69%).

As I intimated above, Tom Scudamore is in the saddle again today and he's 5 from 19 (26.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+123.2% ROI) in handicap chases at this venue since 2010, including 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 2.93pts (+41.9%) over this 2m C&D and 2 from 6 (50%) for 8.35pts (+139.2%) at Class 3.

But today's main stats refer back to the horse and his recent form. The last two entries on his form line read 14, making him one of my 1-2/3/4 horses, whereby...

...Since 2013 in Class 3 to 5, UK NH handicap chases over 2m to 3m1f on ground deemed good or softer, horses who won two starts ago (ie the 1) and then finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 2/3/4 bit) last time out less than three weeks ago are 110/475 (23.2% SR) for 230.2pts (+48.5% ROI)...

These are essentially horses in good form, turned back out fairly quickly in the hope of getting at least one good run out of them before a rest. Of course, 475 chasers from one angle is too many bets to back blindly for most people, so let's break them down with today's contest in mind, shall we? If we did, we'd find that...

  • males are 102/442 (23.1%) for 20.7pts (+49.9%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 84/380 (22.1%) for 212.6pts (+55.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 36/164 (22%) for 138.7pts (+84.6%)
  • those finishing 4th LTO are 30/122 (24.6%) for 130.1pts (+106.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 24/87 (27.6%) for 92.5pts (+106.3%)
  • in November : 18/64 (28.1%) for 81.3pts (+127.1%)
  • and over a 2m trip : 12/47 (25.5%) for 19.2pts (+40.9%)

And from the above, since 2014, Class 3 males who finished 4th, 11 to 20 days earlier are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 70.7pts (+220.9% ROI), including 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 70.93pts (+709.3%) in November and 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 57.37pts (+573.7%) from 6 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lillington @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet & Coral at 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Klassique @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders on inside, smooth headway on inside over 2f out, led inside final furlong, quickened clear to win by 2.5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Like Monday's selection, I'm going to keep this fairly short, simple and hopefully sweet with a 7 yr old gelding who is admittedly on a lengthy losing streak (a feeling I'm familiar with), but has shown signs of coming into some form of late with a string of placed finishes, making the frame in each of his last six runs and has has now been eased a couple of pounds for his return to A/W racing.

He has run well (and won) in better races than this and he certainly gets the trip (placed in 13 of 21 attempts = 61.9% PSR), so I've no qualms on that score, but it's all about the trainer and jockey today, because...

...over the last 30 days : 

  • Trainer David Simcock is 10 from 46 (21.7% SR) for 10.9pts (+23.7% ROI)
  • Jockey Jamie Spencer is 16/76 (21.1%) for 5.9pts (+7.9%)
  • and together they are 6/11 (54.6%) for 16.7pts (+151.5%)

And to be honest with you, those figures would be enough for me on a poor day's racing to make this a selection. They do team up with two others today, including one more here at Lingfield, where Mr Simcock is 45/231 (17.9% SR) for 43.6pts (+17.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and the selection is reinforced by Jamie Spencer riding 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) of those 231 runners for Mr Simcock.

It's not an angle I've just discovered to be honest, as the market seems wise to it, hence the profits of 5.34pts only equating to an ROI of 10.1%, which is why we try to get in/on early. Of that 13/53 record for the Simcock/Spencer alliance on this track, they are 6 from 20 (30%) for 9pts (+45%) over 1m2f/1m4f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by all five firms to have shown their hand by 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.30 Sandown : Firmament @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 5 Handicap (AW)  for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last 11 starts, winning three times including two successes in his last three outings, concluding with a Class 5 win over a mile last time out nine days ago, taking his record over this trip to 23131.

He, like Thursday's pick, is trained by Joseph Tuite and as I went through his recent form and his general September form just two days ago for you, I won't bore you by repeating the numbers. If however, you need a reminder, those details are right here.

What I do want to look at is Mr Tuite's record at getting winners to reproduce their form and since the start of 2015, his LTO winners are 15 from 78 (19.2% SR) for 14.8pts (+19% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • handicappers are 14/66 (21.2%) for 24.1pts (+36.5%)
  • males are 13/57 (22.8%) for 28.1pts (+49.4%)
  • on the A/W : 9/34 (26.5%) for 5.07pts (+14.9%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 12/31 (38.7%) for 14.6pts (+47%)
  • and after a short 6-10 day rest : 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.68pts (+59%)

...AND...from the above... male A/W handicappers priced at 9/2 and shorter are 6/15 (40% SR) for 8.56pts (+57% ROI), of which those who ran just 6-10 days earlier are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.84pts (+161.4%)

...providing the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by more then half a dozen firms as of 6.55pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Goodwood : Threading @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Chased clear leading pair until 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Doro 7/2 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner when last seen 43 days ago. That was a Class 5 contest over 5f and she needed pretty much every last yard of the trip, staying on strongly to grab the win in the closing stages to win by a neck, suggesting that an extra furlong today might help her, as indeed should a drop in class.

To date, she has won 2 of 3 Flat handicaps, she's 2 from 3 on Good ground and 2 from 2 in Flat handicaps on Good ground, whilst trainer Ian Williams' LTO winners sent back out at odds of 1/2 to 11/2 are 123/373 (33% SR) for 39.5pts (+10.6% ROI) over the last ten years, including of relevance today...

  • 5/6 yr olds : 59/165 (35.8%) for 38.8pts (+23.5%)
  • on Good ground : 39/104 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+36.7%)
  • on the Flat : 33/97 (34%) for 29.3pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/73 (39.7%) for 20.5pts (+28.1%)
  • and over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 13/41 (31.7%) for 13.2pts (+32.2%)

Jim Crowley is in the saddle today and since 2008, he is 16 from 93 (17.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+62.5% ROI) on horses trained by Ian Williams, including of note today...

  • in handicaps : 15/71 (21.1%) for 75pts (+105.7%)
  • on the Flat : 11/61 (18%) for 41.1pts (+67.3%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/42 (31%) for 30.8pts (+73.3%)
  • at 21 to 45 days since the horse's last run : 8/32 (25%) for 74.6pts (+233.2%)
  • and since the start of 2016 : 9/25 (36%) for 34.25pts (+137%)

...AND...on Flat handicappers priced at 7/1 and shorter : 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.3% ROI), with a 7 from 8 record (87.5%) producing 29.47pts (+368.3%) over the last two seasons...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dr Doro 7/2 BOGa price available from SkyBet, 10Bet and Sport Pesa at 6.20pm on Friday whilst Bet365 were the best on offer at 4/1 BOG , but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.55 Uttoxeter : Notnow Seamus @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, 2nd from 3rd, led after 5th, well clear last, stayed on to win by 4L)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gainsay 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with this in-form 3 yr old filly, who has won three of her six handicap races to date and her course and distance win two starts ago makes her the only runner in this field to have won at either the track or this trip.

Her 3 from 6 handicap record includes...

  • 3 from 6 under today's jockey Rob Hornby
  • 3 from 5 at this 7f trip
  • 2 from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 from 4 on good to firm ground
  • 1 from 1 here at Lingfield
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

Her trainer, Jonathan Portman is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past 30 days and 3 from 14 (21.4%) over the last fortnight, so we know the yard is ticking along nicely.

And it's definitely worth noting that the Portman horses have won 5 of 9 (55.6% SR) on the turf track here at Lingfield this season, generating 10.4pts profit at an ROI of 115.5% and although that's a fairly small sample size, further encouragement is gleaned via the following...

  • 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 11.4pts (+142.4%) in handicaps
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 12.4pts (+177.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 6.4pts (+91.7%) with Rob Hornby in the saddle

...and when Rob Hornby was riding a handicapper at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 = 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 9.42pts (+235.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gainsay 4/1 BOGa price available from Betway & Hills at 6.50pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

6.30 Nottingham : Classic Pursuit @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Keen, prominent, ridden 2f out, faded inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Full Suit 5/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a winner here at Lingfield last time out over today's trip at Class 6 under today's jockey off the same mark as today a fortnight ago, albeit on Good to Firm turf, so despite a change in surface it does suggest she's in good nick.

The same can also be said for her trainer Archie Watson and jockey Oisin Murphy, as over the last fortnight Archie is 10/24 (41.7%), Oisin is 14/52 (26.9%) and together they are 4 from 4.

Over the past seven days, Archie is 4/9 (44.4%), Oisin is 4/19 (21.1%) and together they're 2 from 2.

Archie's individual record on the A/W has been fantastic pretty much from day 1 of his still relatively short training career and to date, his numbers are 73/321 (22.7% SR) for 53.1pts (+16.5% ROI) on the artificial surfaces here in the UK. That's every runner backed blindly : no filters! However, if you wanted to reduce the number of bets, whilst keeping today's pick relevant...

  • Polytrack runners are 47/213 (22.1%) for 53.5pts (+25.1%)
  • those last seen 4-20 days earlier are 42/166 (25.3%) for 57.9pts (+34.9%)
  • over trips of 9.5f to 13.5f : 27/101 (26.7%) for 80pts (+79.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 22/90 (24.4%) for 32.8pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 18/62 (29%) for 10.14pts (+16.4%)
  • LTO winners are 16/62 (25.8%) for 1.86pts (+3%)
  • and those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 15/51 (29.4% SR) for 1.84pts (+3.6%)

Obviously the main factor from the above is the track itself, so of those 90 who ran here at Lingfield...

  • those that were Archie's only runner on this track that day : 13/38 (34.2%) for 49.1pts (+129.2%)
  • LTO winners : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • under Oisin Murphy : 6/13 (46.2%) for 8.3pts (+64%)
  • and Oisin riding Archie's only runner on the Lingfield A/W track = 3/4 (75% SR) for 12pts at an ROI of 300%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Full Suit 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.35 Newmarket : Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced keenly tracking leading pair until 3f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace and never going pace to challenge)

We end the month with Saturday's...

7.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

OK, I'm a little late with the write-up, as I'm a bit under the weather (hay fever kicking in) and my wifi signal isn't great today, so I'll keep it brief.

I'm well aware that I've backed this horse a few times lately, but I do feel he's due a win, plus I don't like the favourite here at the odds offered, so he's worth taking on today.

Our boy despite those recent defeats for us, has won 6 times within 30 days of his last run, has 5 wins over the minimum trip, 6 wins off a mark in the 60's and 4 wins at Class 5, so conditions won't be alien to him.

His trainer Simon Dow is 22 from 152 (14.5% SR) for 54.3pts (+35.7% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs during the last two years and these include :

  • handicappers at 17/110 (15.5%) for 70.9pts (+64.4%)
  • 6-25 days since last run = 16/76 (21.1%) for 90.7pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter = 16/43 (37.2%) for 29.7pts (+69.1%)
  • Class 5 = 10/59 (17%) for 26.4pts (+44.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/27 (18.5%) for 8.5pts (+31.5%)

...and Class 5 handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter 6 to 25 days after their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 11.64pts (+129.4% ROI)...

Tom Marquand is in the saddle today and has enjoyed a modicum of success on Simon's runners, winning on 8 of 42 (19.1% SR) occasions for profits of 29pts (+69% ROI), from which...

  • male runners are 8/39 (20.5%) for 32pts (+82%)
  • handicappers are 7/32 (21.9%) for 35.6pts (+111.3%)
  • in 2018 : 7/28 (25%) for 20.5pts (+73.3%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 are 6/11 (54.6%) for 18.4pts (+167.4%)

...and male handicappers are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+96.3% ROI) this year, with those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £574.63

46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)

Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1

Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1

Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)

Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)

Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)

Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)

Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes.  Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking.  SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning.  More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:

1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around.  SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race.  Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1.  That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago.  Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount.  Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure.  If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races.  Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.

Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)

1/7—Sheikhzayedroad (good)

1/4—Torcedor (soft)

1/3—Mount Moriah (good)

1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)

 

5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion.  The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1).  FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.

Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.

Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

1/1—Curiosity (good)

1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.