Posts

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.35 Southwell : Master Diver @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Slowly away and driven along, headway chasing leaders 5f out, ridden and not quicken 2f out, soon beaten and hung left)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica de la Noche @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare has finished in the first three home in 10 of her last 11 starts and her third place at this venue last time out, 4 weeks ago, is arguably the best piece of recent form on offer from any of the nine runners set to line up here.

She has won here in the past, she has 3 wins at this trip, she has 3 wins at Class 5, 3 wins off a mark in the 60's and 3 wins in this type of field size, whilst her record with Adam Kirby in the saddle reads 1213, so conditions are far from alien to her today.

Adam himself is 7/28 (25% SR) for 10.18pts (+36.4% ROI) in Class 5/6 Lingfield Flat handicaps over 5-7 furlongs since 2011, whilst since the start of 2017 he has 8 winners from 25 (32% SR) for 8.54pts (+34.2% ROI) when riding for today's trainer, Simon Dow. Most of this is admittedly on A/W surfaces, but does include...

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 12.96pts (+68.2%) in handicaps
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 1.9pts (+11.9%) at Lingfield
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 15.17pts (+137.9%) at odds of 7/2 and shorter
  • 4/10 (40%) for 10.58pts (+105.8%) at Class 5
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.6pts (+51.1%) over the 7f trip

...from which...Dow + Kirby + Lingfield hcps + 7/2 and shorter = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 9.31pts (+133% ROI), including a win on Chica de la Noche last year...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Chica de la Noche @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by SkyBet & Black Type at 6.22pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th April 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.15 Exeter : Coopers Square @ 3/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Chased leaders, slightly lost place 10th, rallied chasing leaders before 14th, pushed along before went 2nd next, upsides and hit 2 out, ridden to lead awkward and hung left last, driven clear  to win by 3 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shanghai Grace @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt has been in fine form of late, finishing 223111 in his last 6 outings and with today's race in mind, those last 3 wins/runs include...

  • all 3 at 7f, 2 here at Lingfield, 2 in handicaps
  • 2 at class 4, 2 under jockey Cieren Fallon and 2 over this course and distance

He is trained by Charles Hills, whose runners are 5 from 18 in the last 30 days with 8 of 13 "losers" going on to make the frame.

Charles also has a decent record here in the last few years too with his runners winning 20 of 73 (27.4% SR) when sent off at 12/1 or shorter here over 6f to 1m since the start of 2015. Backing all 73 runners would have seen you make 42.7pts profit at an ROI of some 58.5%.

And with this one winning last time out, I'll wrap up with a look at how the Hills runners fare after a win and you'll be pleased to know that since the start of 2016, his handicappers who won last time out are 24 from 95 (25.3% SR) for 16.5pts (+17.3% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • males are 17/67 (25.4% SR) for 19.5pts (+29.2%)
  • at odds of 4/1 and shorter : 20/48 (41.7%) for 21.1pts (+43.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 14/45 (31.1%) for 17pts (+37.8%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 3/6 (50%) for 2.86pts (+47.7%)

...whilst from the above... Class 4 males at 4/1 and shorter are 10/20 (50% SR) for 13.8pts (+69% ROI) with a 2 from 3 record here at Lingfield yielding 3.06pts (+102% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shanghai Grace @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 11.10pm on Tuesday (6.10pm here). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 29th March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.50 Wolverhampton : Gantier @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Stumbled out of the stalls, went sideways and slowly into stride, held up in last pair, headway over 1f out, stayed on into 3rd inside final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Warrior's Valley 10/3 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding seems to be on top of his game right now, finishing 121 in his last three outings, only beaten by a half length in that defeat and was a winner of another Class 4, 5 furlong handicap last time out (15 days ago).

He likes to blast out and run from the front and according to the pace tab on our racecard, he's quite likely to be allowed to attempt to make all, which should suit us today. He currently has 5 wins and 3 places from 15 efforts on the A/W so far, all over this minimum 5f trip and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 as a 4yr old
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 6 in March
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 5 on Polytrack
  • 3 wins from 4 at 8-15 dslr
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 over this course and distance
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 under today's jockey Lewis Edmunds
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 4

His trainer David Griffiths' overall record since the start of 2017 isn't great, if I'm honest, with just 52 winners from 520 runners (10% SR) and blindly backing them would have seen you lose over 90pts at Betfair SP or 17.3% of your stakes in that time, ISP backers faring almost twice as badly!

However, not many trainers are profitable to follow blindly, you have to find where they excel and of David's 520 runners in the last 27 months, over 48% (25 in total) of his winners have come in 5f A/W sprints from just 19.8% (103 in total) of all his runners.

48% of his winners from 19.8% of his runners puts a whole new complexion on whether to follow David Griffiths' runners, but in simple terms...

...had you backed all his 5f A/W sprinters since the start of 2017, you'd have 25 winners from 103 (24.3% SR) and 42.8pts (+41.6% ROI) of profit, which is great, but even that can be improved by simply only backing those running in handicaps, as they are 24/90 (26.7% SR) for 54.2pts (+60.2% ROI).

So, backing David Griffiths' 5f, A/W handicappers is an angle worth following and we could leave it there for today, but you know I won't!

Because, of those 90, with today's race in mind...

  • males are 20/78 (25.6%) for 52.4pts (+67.2%)
  • those who last ran 3-30 days earlier are 22/72 (30.6%) for 62.6pts (+87%)
  • those racing in fields of 7-12 runners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 65.3pts (+100.5%)
  • those sent off at 6/1 or shorter are 20/41 (48.8%) for 44pts (+107.4%)
  • those with 1 or 2 previous course and distance wins are 12/31 (38.7%) for 25.8pts (+83.3%)
  • those running on Polytrack are 7/24 (29.2%) for 11.7pts (+48.7%)
  • from March to May inclusive : 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.6pts (+58.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/22 (27.3%) for 9.2pts (+41.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 1.32pts (+7%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 4/13 (30.8%) for 18.2pts (+139.8%)

...whilst based upon the above and relevant today... males sent off at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 in fields of 7-12 runners in 5f A/W handicaps some 3-25 days after their last run are 13 from 31 (41.9% SR) for 45.7pts (+147.5% ROI), with those with 1-3 previous C&D wins going in again on 9 of 18 (50%) occasions for 29.1pts (+161.6%) profit...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Warrior's Valley 10/3 BOG which was offered by SkyBet, BetVictor & Boylesports at 6.30pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.40 Hexham : Glinger Flame @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Always prominent, led on bit approaching last, soon shaken up and clear, winning very easily by some 18 lengths!)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harry Callahan 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

An in-form 4 yr old gelding (2311 last 4 runs) steps up in trip aiming to complete a hat-trick for trainer Mick Channon.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively short, simple and hopefully sweet, based around the fact that...

...since the start of 2011, Mick Channon's horses racing over 1m6f and beyond on the All-Weather are 14 from 68 (20.6% SR) for profits of 28.5pts at an ROI of 41.9% with an A/E of 1.32 and and IV of 1.81 (A/E and IV's north of 1 are good) and this simple approach has been profitable in all bar one year of the quoted timeframe.

As usual, my headline stat will contain various relevant angles at play on the day and from these 68 runners...

  • those competing for a prize of less than £5,000 are 13/61 (21.3%) for 28.4pts (+46.6%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 13/50 (26%) for 38.56pts (+77.1%)
  • on Polytrack : 10/47 (21.3%) for 22.3pts (+47.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 9/1 : 12/45 (26.7%) for 35.3pts (+78.4%)
  • males are 11/45 (24.4%) for 30pts (+66.6%)
  • those last seen 6-20 days earlier are 9/39 (23.1%) for 31.9pts (+81.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 9/34 (26.5%) for 11.8pts (+34.6%)
  • from March to May : 9/25 (36%) for 20.8pts (+83.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/23 (26.1%) for 14.1pts (+61.2%)
  • LTO winners are 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.7pts (+179%)
  • and in March : 4/10 (40%) for 17.85pts (+178.5%)

...whilst 3/4 yr olds sent off at odds shorter than 8/1 when aiming for a prize of less than £5k on Polytrack are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 26.5pts (+204.1% ROI), an angled that is 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.3pts (+276.8%) over the last two years...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harry Callahan 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Skybet just before 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Newcastle : Porrima @ 17/2 BOG 6th at 15/2 (Fly leapt at start again, held up in last pair, good headway near side of group over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Executive Force 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has been on an amazing run of form this year, winning five of six and finishing as a runner-up in the race he lost! Last seen 7 days ago at Wolverhampton, when winning yet again.

He is now 5 from 14 on the All-Weather and this includes of relevance today...

  • 5/10 in cheekpieces
  • 3/9 going left handed
  • 5/8 in Feb/March
  • 3/8 over 1m/1m0.5f
  • 4/7 under jockey Franny Norton
  • 5/6 this year
  • and 2/2 within a week of his last run

Afore-mentioned jockey Franny Norton has 7 winners from 27 in the last 30 days, including 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) in the past fortnight, whilst since 2015 in A/W handicaps over 5f to 1m2f here at Lingfield, he has 14 winners from 66 (21.2% SR) for 95.9pts (+145.3% ROI).

Trainer Michael Wigham has also been amongst the winners of late with a 9 from 30 (30% SR) record over the last 60 days, including 3 from 6 in the past fortnight, whilst since 2013 when using the services of Franny Norton, his horses are 17 from 84 (20.2% SR) for 21pts (+25% ROI), including...

  • 16/76 (21.1%) for 24.9pts (+32.7%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 21.8pts (+80.7%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 20.7pts (+98.7%) from 5 yr olds
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.14pts (+53.8%) with horses running within 10 days of their last outing
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 1.5pts (+9.3%) in March
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.41pts (+31%) from LTO winners...

...whilst more generally over the last two years...

  • Martin's runners turned out with 10 days of their last run are 16/42 (38.1% SR) for 35.44pts (84.4% ROI)
  • his LTO winners are 13/38 (34.2%) for 16.8pts (+44.3%)
  • whilst his LTO winners turned back out within 10 days are 9/14 (64.3%) for 20.2pts (+144.4%), of which Franny Norton has 4 winners from 4 for 5.25pts profit...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Executive Force 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2019

Friday's Pick was...

8.00 Newcastle : Star Cracker @ 6/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, no impression on winner)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Deep Intrigue 10/3 BOG

...in the 6-runner Spring Cup Stakes (Listed) for 3yo's over 7f on polytrack, worth £25520 to the winner...

Why?

This 3yr old colt is in excellent form winning 4 of his last 5 outings and has a record of 1611 on the A/W, including a visit on his only previous run here.

To date he is...

  • 3/4 at odds of 2/1 and bigger
  • 3/4 as a non-fav
  • 2/3 on Poly
  • 2/3 going left handed
  • 2/2 within 7-14 days of his last run
  • 2/2 under today's jockey PJ McDonald

Trainer Mark Johnston's horse are in good nick, winning 3 from 9 in the past week and slightly more long term are 9/21 (42.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 11/35 (31.4%) over the past month.

Whilst here on the Lingfield polytrack, MJ's charges are 41/141 (29.1% SR) for 112.6pts (+79.9% ROI) since the start of 2017, including...

  • males : 29/94 (30.9%) for 48.3pts (+51.4%)
  • Feb/March : 20/58 (34.5%) for 40.66pts (+70.01%)
  • non-hcps : 15./54 (27.8%) for 37pts (+68.6%)
  • over 7f : 6/20 (30%) for 40.6pts (+203.1%)
  • those with 1 previous course win : 6/15 (40%) for 10.7pts (+71%)
  • and with PJ McDonald in the saddle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 7.07pts (+78.6%)

PJ comes here just for this one ride today, but has a good record here especially over shorter trips at the sharp end of the market with 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+123.3% ROI) over 6f-1m at Evens to 11/2 since the start of 2017.

And finally, in that same 2017-19 time frame, when PJ has pitched up at a track for just one ride, he's 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+93.9% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter, from which...

  • Mark Johnston horses are 5/15 (33.3%) for 8.9pts (+59.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 2/6 (33.3%) for 3pts (+50%)
  • and on Mark Johnston horses here at Lingfield : 2/3 (66.6%) for 6pts (+200%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Deep Intrigue 10/3 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Newcastle : Hanakatoba @ 5/1 BOG N/R (Withdrawn at 7:56am Fri 25 Jan  Reason: Vets Cert - Temperature)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out when partnered by today's jockey for the first time. That was just 7 days ago over this course and distance in a Class 5 contest and although our boy is now rated 3lbs higher, he does take a drop in class today.

He has won 7 of 34 starts on the A/W so far and this decent 20.6% strike rate includes of relevance today...

  • 6/24 in cheekpieces
  • 5/24 over 6f
  • 6/20 on Polytrack
  • 4/15 off a mark of 61-70
  • 6/12 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/10 here at Lingfield
  • 3/10 within a week of his last run
  • 3/6 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 with Franny Norton in the saddle

His trainer, Charlie Wallis is 14 from 44 (31.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+99.7% ROI) with his 6f A/W sprinters to date, from which...

  • 12/37 (32.4%) for 37.9pts (+102.4%) on polytrack
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 34.06pts (+100.2%) from 4-6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 26.1pts (+100.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 27.41pts (+144.3%) in December/January
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.8pts (+98.3%) from LTO winners
  • 3/10 (30%) for 12.02pts (+120.2%) over this track and trip

And, since the start of 2017, Charlie's runners reappearing just 4-10 days after their last run are 18/83 (21.7% SR) for 42pts (+50.6%), including...

  • handicappers at 18/78 (23.1%) for 47pts (+60.3%)
  • on the A/W : 16/57 (28.1%) for 42pts (+73.6%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 : 16/52 (30.8%) for 44.9pts (+86.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 12/43 (27.9%) for 30.1pts (+69.9%)
  • on Polytrack : 11/43 (25.6%) for 27.7pts (+64.3%)
  • over 6f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 29.5pts (+89.5%)
  • those dropping down a class : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.71pts (+64.7%)
  • at Lingfield : 3/13 (23.1%) for 11.15pts (+85.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/12 (50%) for 21.82pts (+181.8%)

...and from the above... A/W handicappers at 6/4 to 8/1 are 15/35 (42.9% SR) for 54pts (+154.3%) including 11 from 24 (45.8%) for 41.23pts (+171.8%) at Class 6...

 ..giving us a 1pt win bet on Aguerooo @ 4/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Hills, SportPesa & SportNation at 5.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.15 Newcastle : Straight Right @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, chased winner inside final furlong, never able to challenge)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chica de la Noche @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Fillies Handicap over 7f on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare is consistent if nothing else, finishing in the first three home in each of her last seven outings. She's a former course and distance winner (2 starts and 24 days ago) from the back end of last year when ridden by today's in-form (6/25 over the last 7 days) jockey Adam Kirby for the very first and only (so far) time.

Booking Adam again is a positive as he rides this track well, particularly over the shorter trips and since 2008 has churned out the winners on a regular basis : 103 to be precise from 541 rides (19% SR) over trips of 6 to 8 furlongs generating level stakes profits of 130.5pts (+24.1% ROI) for anyone backing him blindly over those distances.

Of those 541 rides, he's 70/376 (18.6%) for 139.1pts (+37%) at the lower end (Class 5/6) of the quality scale, so he clearly gets the fractions right at this level, hence fingers crossed for another winner!

Sticking with Mr Kirby as our focus today, his partnership with trainer Simon Dow has been successful over the last couple of years, albeit from a small number of rides, but over the last 2 years, they are 7 from 19 together with that 36.8% strike rate generating 11pts profit at a healthy ROI of 57.7% and whilst there aren't a vast number of contests to look at there, they do throw some interesting angles up for today, as...

  • on the A/W : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8.3pts (+48.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 6/17 (35.3%) for 8.3pts (+48.6%)
  • in handicaps : 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.4pts (+102.7%)
  • in December/January : 6/13 (46.2%) for 12.3pts (+94.3%)
  • on the A/W here at Lingfield : 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.9pts (+49.1%)
  • at odds shorter than 4/1 : 6/9 (66.6%) for 13.6pts (+151.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/6 (50%) for 11pts (+183.3%)
  • over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 4pts (+66.6%)
  • and in January : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.3pts (+105%)

...whilst in Lingfield A/W handicaps at odds shorter than 4/1 in December/January, the pair are 4/6 (66.6% SR) for 10.3pts (+171.9% ROI), which includes that course and distance win by Chica de la Noche 24 days ago over course and distance...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Chica de la Noche @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 4.45pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.20 Newcastle : Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led 2 out, ridden out to win by 0.75 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

OK, big day today as I attempt to celebrate my 50th birthday with an SotD-record equalling (so I'm informed) sixth winner on the bounce via a 5 yr old gelding with two wins from his last five outings including a course and distance success here 11 days ago when ridden by today's jockey Katherine Begley (Glenister) for the first time.

Kathy (excuse the familiarity) is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 15.8pts (+175.6% ROI) on trainer David Evans' runners in the last four weeks with another 3 of those runners making the frame, including 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 17.8pts (+254.3%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter from which the partnership is 2 from 4 (50%) for 12.73pts (+318.1%) over this 7f trip.

Meanwhile (and from a larger dataset), David Evans' runners sent off at odds of 10/1 and shorter in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield are 23 from 117 (19.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+29.5% ROI) and with today's runner/contest firmly in mind, those 117 runners are...

  • 18/88 (20.5%) for 41.6pts (+47.2%) as 3-6 yr olds
  • 18/73 (24.7%) for 47.1pts (+64.5%) off a mark (OR) of 56-80
  • 13/61 (21.3%) for 43.6pts (+71.5%) over 7-10 furlongs
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 58pts (+96.7%) 11-25 days after their last run
  • 15/56 (26.8%) for 48.7pts (+87%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 40.7pts (+131.4%) in January
  • and 5/22 (22.7%) for 14.6pts (+66.4%) over this 7f C&D

And if you wanted a composite from the above, you could try...3-6 yr olds off marks of 56-80 over 7-10f running 6-25 dslr for 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) and 65.6pts (+345.4% ROI) profit which include's Kodiline's win LTO and also...

  • with 8-13 runners : 9/15 (60%) for 69.6pts (+464.1%)
  • in January : 6/11 (54.6%) for 39.9pts (+362.3%)
  • 8-13 runners in Jan : 6/8 (75%) for 42.9pts (+535.6%)
  • over 7f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+309.7%)
  • 8-13 runners over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 22.7pts (+378%)
  • over 7f in Jan : 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)
  • and 8-13 runners over 7f in Jan : also 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Ladbrokes at 4.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.45 Wetherby : Sheneededtherun @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Held up in rear, headway 5 out, effort after 3 out, no impression, weakened before last)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wotadoll @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly carries bottom weight here, receiving 3 to 13lbs from her nine rivals despite arriving here in decent nick having won two of her last three starts, including a course and distance win on her only previous run on this track two races ago.

She wasn't beaten by far last time out when running at a higher grade off a mark 3lbs higher than today, so the drop in both class and weight should help her here.

Trainer Dean Ivory's handicap class droppers are 29/166 (17.5% SR) for 304.1pts (+183.2% ROI) over the last three years and those figures include...

  • dropping 1 class : 26/146 (17.8%) for 302.1pts (+206.9%)
  • within 45 days of last run : 22/118 (18.6%) for 177.3pts (+150.2%)
  • ran at Class 4 LTO : 7/47 (14.9%) for 119.7pts (+254.6%)
  • at 6/4 to 6/1 : 17/46 (37%) for 40.3pts (+87.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 7/43 (16.3%) for 123.7pts (+287.6%)

In addition to the above, Dean's Lingfield A/W handicappers are 25/165 (15.2% SR) for 49.7pts (+30.1% ROI) backed blindly over the last six years and these include...

  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 23/98 (23.5%) for 65.5pts (66.9%)
  • in November/December : 9/59 (15.3%) for 20.7pts (+35%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/53 (18.9%) for 37pts (+69.9%)
  • 4yr olds are 7/42 (16.6%) for 11.8pts (+28.1%)
  • and at 6-15 days after their last run : 7/37 (18.9%) for 16.1pts (+43.4%)

...and from the above, Class 5 runners at 6/4 to 10/1 in November/December are 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 30pts (+272.3% ROI), including 4yrs old at 3/4 (75%) for 21.5pts (+536.2%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Wotadoll @ 7/2 BOG, as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.20pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date...

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above...O'Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which...

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

...and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date...

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above...O'Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which...

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

...and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2018

Monday's Pick was...

5.15 Wolverhampton : Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG 11th at 4/1 (Report to follow, but a switch of tactics to front-running was clearly a poor decision)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in a similar Class 6, 6 furlong handicap at Chelmsford when last seen 26 days ago and Fink Hill was four lengths behind her in fourth place, but has since reappeared to win a Class 5 contest, so I'm hoping/expecting the form to hold out.

The Dean Ivory/Robert Winston trainer/jockey combo has had a good year so far, combining for 10 wins from 37 (27% SR) and 28.2pts (+76.1% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since New Year, including...

  • 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 5.84pts (+53.1%) over 6f
  • 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) at Class 6
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 29.9pts (+598%) here at Lingfield, which is excellent.

And the bigger picture?

Dean Ivory + Lingfield A/W handicaps + 7/4 to 10/1 + 2013 to 2018 = 22/95 (23.2% SR) for 61.5pts (+64.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 6 = 8/40 (20%) for 19.9pts (+49.7%)
  • 6 furlongs C&D = 10/36 (27.8%) for 23.6pts (+65.7%)
  • Robert Winston = 7/33 (33.3%) for 13.8pts (+42%)
  • November/December = 7/28 (25%) for 28.2pts (+100.8%)
  • females = 6/25 (24%) for 19.75pts (+79%)
  • 4 yr olds = 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.8pts (+103.3%)
  • 2018 = 6/15 (40%) for 35.4pts (+236.1%)
  • and LTO winners = 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.4pts (+109.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, SkyBet and BlackType (latter non-BOG until 10am) at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.25 Musselburgh : Val Mome @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (In touch, headway on inside after 4 out, every chance from 2 out and throughout run in, just failed by a nose) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Hurdle  for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Good To Soft ground (soft in places & rain is forecast) worth £6583 to the winner...

Why?

This 4yr old gelding has some good soft ground form in France ahead of a victory on his UK debut 19 days ago on Good to soft ground. That was not only his first outing for trainer Philip Hobbs, but it was also despite a near-10 months layoff from racing.

Mr Hobbs is having an excellent month so far, racking up 18 winners from 88 (20.5% SR) for 114.4pts (+130% ROI) this November, from which his hurdlers are 11 from 45 (24.4%) for 115.9pts (+257.5%)

His record with LTO winners running in handicap hurdle contests within 25 days of their last outing currently stands at 34 from 113 (30.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+44.2% ROI) and these include...

  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 20.4pts (+45.3%) at Class 3
  • 15/41 (36.6%) for 46.1pts (+112.3%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 19.6pts (+65.4%) won a Novice race LTO

And finally for today, Philip Hobbs' runners on their second start for the yard are 26/137 (19% SR) for 96.6pts (+70.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • those whose yard debut was in the previous 2 months : 21/90 (23.3%) for 132.4pts (+147.2%)
  • hurdlers are 15/83 (18.1%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • and hurdlers whose yard debut was in the previous 2 months : 12/55 (21.8%) for 71.3pts (+129.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Ecu de la Noverie @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by at Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on same pace towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner Listed Race for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £20983 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding initially caught my eye, as it featured on the Shortlist report, so I did a little bit of digging and found that he is...

  • 8 from 14 over the 6f trip
  • 5 from 11 in blinkers
  • 5 from 9 at odds of 13/8 to 4/1
  • 3 from 5 in October/November
  • 2 from 4 in Listed company
  • 2 from 4 ridden by James Doyle
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance after he won this very race last year.

He won the race last year, when carrying 9-6 under James Doyle and James rides again, but the horse carries 3lbs less.

Trainer Hugo Palmer's record in Listed races since the start of 2013 stands at 15 wins from 119 (12.6% SR) for 31.3pts (+26.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 to 5 yr olds at 14/94 (14.9%) for 54.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in fields of 8-13 runners : 12/77 (15.6%) for 63pts (+81.8%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/19 (21.1%) for 10.7pts (+56.3%)

Gifted Master now returns to action after a 12-week break, but I'm not over concerned about his lack of recent action, because Hugo Palmer's horses running after a break to 2 to 5 months are 27/97 (27.8% SR) for 97.9pts (+101% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which the following are relevant today...

  • Sub-10/1 shots are 26/71 (36.6%) for 80.2pts (+113%)
  • males are 22/60 (36.7%) for 105.7pts (+176.1%)
  • those rated (OR) 80 and above are 15/48 (31.3%) for 51.4pts (+107.1%)
  • in non-handicaps : 12/43 (27.9%) for 47.3pts (+109.9%)
  • on the A/W : 14/36 (38.9%) for 93pts (+258.4%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.3pts (+134.9%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 4/11 (36.4%) for 54.5pts (+495.4%)

...whilst sub 10/1 males rated 80 and above are 14 from 28 (50% SR) for 66.2pts (+236.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG , a price widely available at 6.20pm on Friday evening, although Hills were offering another quarter point for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!