Tag Archive for: Lingfield racecourse

Tix Picks, Monday 09/12/24

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Monday's racing comes from Lingfield, Musselburgh, Newcastle & Wolverhampton.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newcastle...

We've got soft ground (of course!) at both NH venues, but with Musselburgh having some really small fields, let's head to not-so-leafy Lingfield for these six races...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...This really should be all about Willie Mullins' (1) Full Confession, an Irish PTP winner, who easily landed a Fairyhouse bumper on his debut under Rules four weeks ago. He carries a penalty for that win, but it's hard to see him not winning. Next best might well be debutant (5) Wild Goose who is a half-brother to Black Poppy who has 4 wins and 5 places from 15 over hurdles and won a Class 1 handicap at Haydock last year. The yard has a strike rate of over 18% in bumpers since 2017 with over 42% of those runners making the frame.

(6) Celtic Queen showed some promise when a runner-up on debut in a Hereford bumper four weeks ago, beaten by just three quarters of a length at 18/1 and she's sure to be much shorter here with that run under her belt. It probably wasn't the strongest of races, but you can only compete with what's put in with you and the experience would have been vital.

You could just put Full Confession on your tickets here and be done with it, but I'll still take the other two as back-ups, just in case!

Leg 2 @ 1.00...With the bottom three on the card all running from outside of the handicap, I'm going to focus on the top five...

Mumbles had been running consistently well over hurdles for some time (3421214), mainly on soft and heavy ground, before taking a 224-day break. He returned to action at Ffos Las four weeks ago and was a decent runner-up on his chase debut and should improve for that run. Iskar d'Airy got off the mark at the tenth time of asking last time out, so he knows how to win, but hasn't raced since that win 610 days ago, makes a chasing debut today and is unproven on soft ground.

John W Creasy is a twelve-race maiden after one bumper run, eight hurdle races and three chases. He seemed to have got the hang of chasing when a reasonable 5th of 12 at Exeter in October, but was pulled up last time out. Maybe the huge drop in trip will help today? Rock On Tommy makes a third appearance over fences, more than 2yrs 4 months since his last one, but comes here off the back of a trio of good efforts over hurdles (324) and goes off a mark 8lbs lower than his last chase run and 9lbs lower than his last hurdle win.

Robins Field has yet to win after 18 (6 x hrd, 12 x chs) outings, but has been the runner-up in four of his six outings in 2024, including last time out at Cartmel on soft ground and maybe he's just destined to always be the bridesmaid?

(1) Mumbles makes most appeal to me here today with persistent runner-up (5) Robins Field probably likely to reprise that role. (4) Rock On Tommy might be the 'best of the rest'.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Only six go to post now for this, but it still looks pretty competitive with the likely winner for me being (1) Diva Luna who makes a hurdling debut after a pair of soft ground bumper wins. She won a Listed event at Market Rasen on debut in February and followed that up with a Grade 2 at the Aintree Festival and I'm confident that her yard will have schooled her well.

(4) Jasmine d'Airy won a Tipperary bumper by six lengths on debut back in May and subsequently changed hands for £120,000. That kind of money doesn't guarantee success, but it shows she's highly rated. (5) Metkayina was fourth behind Diva Luna in that Aintree bumper above, having won at Ludlow on her previous outing. She's had the benefit of both a recent run and a hurdles debut, when second of six here at Lingfield over 2m3½f, a length and a quarter behind It's Hard To Know, who has won again since.

My shortlist is completed by (6) Northern Air who has finished as runner-up in both races over hurdles so far and although beaten by nine lengths at Ayr last time out should still go well here.

This, however, should be all about (1) Diva Luna and I'd expect her to win comfortably here with (5) Metkayina the biggest challenge. If you're taking three from this one, then I suspect that (4) Jasmine D'Airy might just have too much for Northern Air.

Leg 4 @ 2.00...(2) Kado De Joie has won two of his last five including last time out at Fontwell coming off a six month break and whilst he's up 5lbs for that win, he should come on for having had the run. (3) Peking Opera won a Listed race on the Flat and also competed Groups 1, 2 & 3 in that sphere, so he shouldn't lack for speed between the flights here. he did win over hurdles at Sandown in February before reverting back to the Flat for the summer and possibly needed a 'sighter' back over hurdles last time out when furth back at Sandown a month ago.

(4) Golden Maverick never really got involved last time out finishing 12th of 15 at Cheltenham coming back from a six month break, but prior to that break, had finished in the frame in all five starts (23112) over hurdles and it's not inconceivable that he goes better today. he was also useful on the Flat, making the frame in 7 of 11, winning four times and he handles soft ground well enough, as does bottom weight (8) Followango whose hurdles form to date consists of five races on soft or heavy ground with results of 32232 after winning a heavy ground bumper by 19 lengths on debut at Ffos Las 13 months ago. She unseated her rider last time out at Ffos Las, but that was her chase debut on quicker ground and came after six months off track, so we should see a different version of her here.

I can make a case for all four, but I'm only takin three and I think I'll omit Peking Opera.

Leg 5 @ 2.30...When I took a cursory look last night, only three of the twelve runners really interested and sadly my preferred option (Pedley Wood) was withdrawn this morning, leaving me with two from eleven and they are...

(2) Icaque de l'Isle has surprisingly yet to get off the mark after ten attempts, but hasn't been running badly and has been in the first three home on five occasions (which is all we need here today!) He's down in class here, jockey Harry Bannister is riding well and the horse is used to soft ground. He should be in the first three home, as will hopefully be (3) Shot Boii who has had a reasonable 2024 over fences finishing 12342P83. Of that run, he was pulled up at Southwell in April on his sixth start in less than 16 weeks, so he might have already been done for the season. He was eighth of thirteen at Ffos Las after a 201-day absence and was then back to his usual level last time out. He's two from five here at Lingfield, gets the trip and the going and also drops in class.

In the absence of my preferred runner, I'm adding (8) Twilight Glory to the ticket builder, after he ran really well to finish third of ten at Warwick recently coming off a break of 195 days and he did win twice on heavy ground last season.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...And I've also lost my number one pick (King William Rufus) for the finale, which will hopefully hand the race to (2) Dominic's Fault who was unlucky to go down by just a short-head over 2m4f at Carlisle last time out, having not raced for 254 days. He was third here over course and distance in February and won on heavy ground at Leicester and with the benefit of a recent run allied to a drop back in trip, he should be on the premises again today.

The big challenge is expected to come from (9) Star Of Affinity who came back from his own summer break to win over 2m1f at Exeter in October and he followed that up with a two length defeat as a runner-up at Ascot last time out. He was headed before the last that day over 2m3½f and he too should improve for the drop back in trip.

It really should be a two-horse affair here and I'm going to leave it as that.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Full Confession, (5) Wild Goose & (6) Celtic Queen

Leg 2: (1) Mumbles, (5) Robins Field & (4) Rock On Tommy

Leg 3: (1) Diva Luna, (5) Metkayina & (4) Jasmine D'Airy

Leg 4: (2) Kado De Joie, (4) Golden Maverick & (8) Followango

Leg 5: (2) Icaque de l'Isle, (3) Shot Boii & (8) Twilight Glory

Leg 6: (2) Dominic's Fault & (9) Star Of Affinity

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Tix Picks, 11th September 2024

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Good Morning, everyone! As promised/threatened, I'm back in the Tix hot seat for a crack at Wednesday's racing for you.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst the biggest pots are at Carlisle, there are some big/tricky fields so as I'm in my infancy with Tix Picks, I'm going to focus on the A/W card at Lingfield for today...

Leg 1 : 2.05 Lingfield

In card order, this looks like a three-horse contest between Honour Your Dreams, Master Dandy and Savannah Smiles who all drop in class today. Master Dandy was a runner-up LTO and the other two both come here off the back of wins. All three have won over 6f already and Savannah Smiles is a course and distance winner. Honour Your Dream is trained by Mick Appleby whose horses are in great form (8/32 in the last fortnight), but it’s Savannah Smiles who catches the eye on Instant Expert…

The pace/draw heat map for this race suggests the further forwrd a horse tuns, the greater the chance of making the frame...

...and with the field's last four average pace scores looking like this...

...Honour Your Dreams and Savannah Smiles look more likely than Master Dandy, so I'm siding with this pair.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Lingfield

Four runners, one debutant. Of the three with the benefit of a run Hello Miss Lady’s runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago is the best on offer. She’s the clear 2/5 favourite and it’s her or the highway here, I think!

Leg 3 : 3.05 Lingfield

A 9-runner nursery with two LTO winners in the shape of Matharu and Lazieelunch, whilst Thiscouldbefun was placed third; Inconspicuous has also already won a race and I’d probably want to focus on these four based on results, although Enchanted Eye has two runner-up finishes from his last three runs and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, which will hopefully help his cause.

Lazieelunch actually beat Matharu last time out with the latter then going on to win, but he’s a pound worse off this time, so they should be pretty closely matched. All five of the shortlist seem to be suited by the pace/draw heat map here...

Enchanted Eye seemingly benefiting the most on this evidence and I think I'll take him based on his profile and take one of either Lazieelunch and Matharu to go with him. When I looked back at the card, I saw this...

...so I'll take Lazieelunch and Enchanted Eye here.

Leg 4 : 3.40 Lingfield

Whoopee! A 2yo maiden fillies race! Bit of a cop out here, but Darn Hot Mystery, Sofia The First, Lillys Bet and Sixteen One all made the frame LTO and are the only past placers in the race. Sixteen One looks the one to beat here, as she only went down by a head on debut, almost five lengths clear of the third placed horse, but her price will reflect the here. To be honest, I’d probably put all four down but if restricting myself to two picks, Lilly’s Bet looks consistent.

Leg 5 : 4.15 Lingfield

More familiar territory here with an 8-runner handicap for 3 yr olds, most of whom come here in mediocre (or worse!) form, except Time Tested, whose last three results read 121 including a course and distance win here last time out. He’s going to go off mightily short here today and it’s him or bust for me on this one, based purely on form alone.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Lingfield

And we round off with another 3yo handicap, this time it's a 6-runner, Class 5 contest over 7f, where the filly Whoop Whoop is the only LTO winner.

Faster Bee and Berry Clever are still maidens after 13 & 11 attempts respectively, so I’m setting them aside here. Of the other four runners Sonmarg and Cherry Hill have made the frame five time and four times from their twelve starts.

A quick look at the pace/draw heat map suggests Cherry Hill is the worst positioned here of the four I'm still considering...

, so I'll set him aside too, leaving me with LTO winner Whoop Whoop, Sonmarg who has the highest place strike rate and front-runner Union Island. I'm definitely taking Whoop Whoop and with Union Island stepping up in class after two poor efforts, Sonmarg is the second pick here.

Apologies for the post being later than I/you would have wanted. I've been beset by all manner of tech issues as I grapple with Indonesian web restrictions, but I'll aim to be earlier tomorrow!

Chris

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...


...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Catterick
  • 4.50 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Kempton

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from! Of those, the 5.05 Kempton is the highest-rated at Class 2, but a field of thirteen novices with a combined total of twenty-two career races doesn't give much to work from, so the next 'best' is the 5.00 Lingfield, where Roger Varian will look for another course winner with his in-form 3yo gelding Nazron in a 5-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

As you can see, none of them managed to win last time out, but Nazron and McLoven were runners-up, as they both have been three times recently. McLoven, however, is up in class here and is the only runner without a win in seven starts, turning a career start of 2 wins from 4 into his current 2 wins from 11 and he's 0 from 8 on turf.

All five have raced at least once in the last four weeks and Tsunami Spirit is the only one yet to win over this minimum trip, as his sole success was over 6f on the polytrack at Kempton. The 5yr old mare Mary of Modena is the sole non-3yo in the field and has failed to win any of her last five outings, but her win over 6f on good ground here back in May '22 is this field's only course win, according to a fairly-sorry looking Instant Expert...

...from which the takeaways are that we're bereft of Class 4 wins on the Flat, but Mary of Modena (who seems to like soft ground) & Kiss and Run both have a pair of Class 5 wins on turf. McLoven has struggled over this trip, despite having plenty of practice and on these numbers above, it's Mary of Modena edging it and she also has a really good place record under these conditions...

...where McLoven continues to look vulnerable.

We don't have much in the way of data for small field sprints on soft ground here at Lingfield (it is July after all!), but I wasn't really expecting much of a draw bias over a straight 5f anyway, but here's the data we do have..

...which I suppose backs up my thoughts. And if those nine wins have been equally shared amongst the three draw zones, it's a fairly similar story with regards to pace. None of the eight mid-division runners (too small a sample to trust in my opinion) have won, but otherwise, the wins have been shared equally...
...which brings me to the place stats to provide a little guidance and if runners want to make the frame, they're advised (as is often the case over 5f) to get on with it pretty quickly and if we look at this field's recent efforts...
...it looks like McLoven and Mary of Modena will be setting the tempo and the contest and there's a serious danger of Tsunami Spirit being run out of things.

Summary

In a reversal of how I normally summarise, I'm going to start by showing you the market as it stands at 4.30pm Tuesday*...
*odds taken from Hills, the only book open
I can't back Nazron at 11/10 if I rely on the data above, even if he's probably the best in the race and he's in good nick and his yard do well here, there's just no value there for me, you're welcome to disagree, of course. McLoven also looks too short at 3/1 for a horse that is winless in seven and an overall 0 from 8 on the flat and scored poorly on Instant Expert. He does have an ideal pace profile here, of course, but he's still not for me.
The pace looks like it might well rule Tsunami Spirit out of the equation, which effectively leaves me with the two outsiders in the contest if I wanted to place a bet. The truth is that I don't really want to throw much, if any, cash at this one now that I've looked at it, but if I do, it'll probably be a small E/W bet on Mary of Modena. She'd be an unlikely winner, I suppose, but she has won on this track, she scores well on the place element of Instant Expert and will be right u with the pace.
Stranger things have happened!

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...


...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.35 Hexham
  • 5.45 Hexham

Of all those races above, the Class 1 Swinton handicap hurdle (3.15 Haydock) is the highest-rated, but the 1.50 Lingfield, the 4.20 Ascot and the 4.35 Hexham from the 'free' list also have runners on my TJC Report and from this trio of races, I'm going to focus upon the highest-rated, which is the 1.50 Lingfield. It's a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m3f and 133yds on good ground and here's the line-up...

Flash Bardot has won three of her last four and along with Aimeric (2 from 5 and 3 from 6) arrive here on the back of wins last time out, but the former is turned back out quickest just a fortnight after winning at Doncaster on her return from a six-month break. Aimeric, on the other hand, has been off the track 252 days, which is longer than any other runner in this field and he could need the run here.

In fact, aside from Flash Bardot, Peking Opera (21 days) and Base Note (43 days), the rest of the field are all returning from lay-offs after finishing outside of the frame on their last outings.

Yard & UK debutant Kolossal and Peking Opera both make handicap debuts here and the latter will also wear blinkers for the first time, as he drops in class after a couple of unsuccessful Class 1 outings. Track of Time is another handicap debutant on his first UK run, If Not Now has been gelded whilst away from the track and Flash Bardot steps up a class.

None of the field have even raced on this track before, but all bar Peking Opera, If Not Now and Track of Time have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

INSTANT EXPERT...

True Legend, Aimeric and Global Heat have the best good ground records and Aimeric is probably the pick of the bunch off an admittedly fairly sparse amount of data. Flash Bardot is proven at the trip, as is True Legend and these are probably the four standouts from this piece of analysis, although Global Heat and True Legend do run off far higher marks than their last turf successes.

DRAW...

The inference here (to me, at lest) is that you'd ideally be berthed relatively centrally to high in stalls 3 to 7, perhaps? Runners in stall 1 have seemed to struggle, winning just one of the twenty-eight races, which isn't great news for Kolossal on his first run in the UK, but followers of Aimeric & Flash Bardot amongst others will be buoyed by the draw.

PACE...

Essentially, you don't really want to be on a hold-up type here at Lingfield, but that doesn't mean they can't win, it just makes life more difficult, That said, if those drawn centrally take the race on, then it might be wise for those either side to just drop in behind and wait for the right moment to attack. The field's most recent UK outings...

...suggest that Aimeric might have to pass all his rivals if he's going to win this, although several of them have raced in the rear of late. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that Global Heat will attempt to force the pace here.

Summary

The names that keep cropping up during the analysis are Flash Bardot, Aimeric and True Legend and as of 3.20pm on Friday, they were trading at 6/1 (Coral), 9/4 (Bet365 & Coral) and 11/2 (Bet365) respectively at the head of the market and at those odds, Flash Bardot is the one that interests me most. She's had a recent run, she's in good form and is drawn well.

Aimeric looks too short at 9/4 after a long lay-off and his running style might cause him a problem, although he's certainly good enough to prove me wrong, whilst True Legend might also need the run.

Global Heat (16/1 gen) and Base Note (14/1 gen) both featured fairly prominently in the analysis above and whilst unlikely winners here  both could easily outrun those odds and make the frame. Base Note has had the benefit of a comeback run six weeks ago so might just be the better option of the two if you fancied a longer-odds punt.

Racing Insights, Friday 01/03/2024

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no UK qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.37 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 6.45 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...from which I'll tackle the first on the list, the 2.37 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

FORM : Bottom-weight Balon D'or is the only one of the twelve runners without a win in their last five (or fewer) outings, having been beaten in all ten starts since winning on debut almost eleven months ago. Those with multiple wins in the recent formline include Brave Empire (3 from 4), Salvuccio (2 from 4), Billy Webster (3 from 4), Blue Prince (2 from 3), Beyond Borders (3 from 3 and 4 from 6), Photosynthesis (2 from 5) and McLoven who is 2 from 3; Brave Empire won last time out, Billy Webster comes here seeking a hat-trick and Beyond Borders completed a hat-trick last time out, so plenty are in good form.

CLASS : Only five of the field ran at Class 2 last time out, as top weight Rosario was a Group 3 runner-up, whilst McLoven was 8th of 9 in a Class 3 handicap and moves up a level here. Bigger steps are taken by Billy Webster (won), Beyond Borders (won), Photosynthesis (3rd of 6) and Balon D'or (3rd of 6) who all raced in Class 4 handicaps, whilst Salvuccio's last UK run saw him win a Class 5 novice race and I suspect this will be tougher.

WHAT'S NEW : Quite a bit it appears! Rosario and The Coffee Pod are both on handicap debut, whilst Salvuccio and World of Darcy make just a second handicap appearance. Photosynthesis, Salvuccio and Blue Prince all run for the first time since being gelded and the latter has been highlighted as a fast finisher, whilst Balon D'or wears a cheekpiece/tongue tie combo for the first time.

LAST SEEN : Rosario, The Coffee Pod and McLoven have all been off the track for 20 weeks and might need the run, as might Beyond Borders after a 16-week absence. Elsewhere, aside from Billy Webster's 8-weeks off, the remainder of the field have all raced in the last 21-26 days.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Blue Prince (Newcastle, Southwell & York), Beyond Borders (Newcastle, Pontefract, Thirsk & Wolverhampton)), The Coffee Pod (York) and World of Darcy (Nottingham) have all won over this trip away from Lingfield, whilst both Brave Empire and Photosynthesis are course and distance winners. McLoven has also won here but over 5f. Much of this will show below in Instant Expert, of course...

...and if we remove Turf runs...

...we initially see that Rosario and The Coffee Pod are on A/W debuts. Overall Balon D'or looks vulnerable at both class and trip, whilst G'day Mate has a full line of red across both codes, whilst World of Darcy's Class 5, 6f win at Nottingham is all that stands between him and a line of red too. Conversely, Brave Empire looks a solid contender on the above data and this is backed up by his place percentages...

...where my attention is also grabbed by Blue Prince (trip), Beyond Borders (trip) and The Coffee Pod (class & trip), which is handy as I suspect the bookies might pay four places here.

With a dozen runners attacking a bend on a 6f sprint, the draw might have plenty to do with the outcome here today and the stats from past similar places look like this...

.with those drawn in the lowest third (ie stalls 1-4) winning 1.18 times more often than those in stalls 5-8 and 1.37 times more often than the highest third. As for the places, those figures are very similar at 1.14 and 1.27 and this advantage in being drawn low is highlighted by the PRB3 figures...

...where the first 5 (possibly 6/7) in the stalls would appear to have a clear advantage. If we then look at how those 130+ races above were won...

...we see another clear advantage forming as the further forward a horse has raced, the better its chances of making the frame and ultimately winning have been and unsurprisingly, low to mid-drawn pace-setters have been the most successful in those races...

The pace tab on our racecards show how the runners have approached their most recent UK races, enabling us to (a) make a reasoned assumption to how the race will unfold and (b) see where exactly in the stalls that early pace is going to cone from, as follows...

...where the suggestion is that McLoven will attempt to hit the front early and try to stay there, whilst the likes of Salvuccio, Rosario and Blue Prince are going to have to pass plenty of traffic if they want to win. If we put this data into stall order, we get this...

...where the four of the top five pace scores are in the lower half of the draw and when we place that graphic over the heat map from the last 60 such contests...

Summary

The inference from the pace/draw stats and heat map is that McLoven will run a big race here and whilst not an obvious winner based on a poor run last time out and a 140-day absence, he is 2 from 2 on the A/W including a win here over 5f on handicap debut last September where he made all. He'll probably need the run, but I'm not quite ready to discount him as an E/W possible if I can get a decent price about him.

Beyond Borders is next of interest on that chart and is in great form, winning each of his last three outings and he's also 2 from 2 on the A/W, but like McLoven, has been off a while. His A/W runs have both been on tapeta, so it's a polytrack debut and he's up 5lbs for a 0.75 length win, which makes this tough. I'll probably discount him from my win considerations, but he too could be an E/W possible. G'day Mate is the other standout from pace/draw, but he was only fourth of five behind Brave Empire here over course and distance last time out, so that rules him out and brings me to Brave Empire himself. Not ideally drawn, nor fast away and I think that might be his undoing, as it might well be for Rosario, which is a pity as I think they might be the best two in the race.

Rosario makes an A/W debut and I just can't back him, based on that plus the pace/draw stats and his 140-day absence, but something niggles me saying he just might win. Brave Empire was suited by the way the race unfolded last time out, but pace/draw relegate him to the ranks of E/W possible too and I'll be honest, I'm struggling to find/pick a winner here!

Let's look at the 5.10pm market to see how those mentioned so far are priced and I see that we have Rosario at 11/2 (PP/betfair), Brave Empire at 7/1 (bet365), Beyond Borders at 10/1 (generally) and McLoven at 22/1 (PP/betfair/Hills) and I think I'm going to have small E/W bets on the latter trio; Rosario is just a bit too short.

I could make a case for Photosynthesis and Salvuccio, but they're not attractively priced enough for me at 7/2 and 7/1, so I'll stick with my trio of E/W hopefuls.

Racing Insights, Thursday 08/02/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.05 Huntingdon
  • 1.30 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Lingfield
  • 6.35 Newcastle

...the best of which (on class/paper, at least) is the 2.25 Lingfield, a Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Only top-weight Bosh was a winner last time out, but both Aljari and Hieronymus finished third with the former having won three of his previous four. The latter won two starts ago, as Love de Vega and Mclean House (who is 3 from 5), whilst Charencey won three races ago. Only Baldomero is on a long losing run, having been beaten in each of his last 25 outings over a 23 month period. That said, he has finished in the first three home in 6 of his last 7, so all might not be lost even if his mark just won't come down.

He does, however take a drop in class here, but Hieronymus, Love de Vega and Mclean House are all up in class despite LTO defeats. All seven have raced in the last five weeks with bottom-weight Charencey turned back out after just four days rest. He, along with top-weight Bosh are the only two yet to win over this trip and o the four runners to have raced at this track previously, only Aljari has won here, scoring over course and distance on his sole visit back in June of last year, the first win of a 9-week hat-trick last summer.

Over the last couple of years on the A/W...

...Aljari has probably performed the best, but as shown above Baldomero has been more of a placer than a winner...

In fact, despite a run of 25 defeats, he has consistently made the frame and sometimes at decent odds nd has remained a viable E/W option in many of his races. That said, I can't back him to win here and off place form, I'm not over-excited about Hieronymus, Mclean House or Charencey unless there's something in the pace/draw stats to convince me otherwise.

If we go back over the last 200 or so (good sample size) similar races on this track, there's not much to suggest that the draw will have much effect...

...I suppose there's a slight advantage in the middle, because (a) the bend will be a little sharper for those drawn lower and (b) those drawn higher have a little further to run, but it's really not a huge draw bias. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish and there's a clear pattern to how those races above have unfolded with those setting the pace doing best of all...

That's not to say that hold-up can't/won't win here, but they're only half as likely as leaders to do so, which looks like far better news for Hieronymus, than it does for the likes of Charencey, based on the field's last three runs...

Summary

You can make a case for several here, but the one I like best is Bosh. He's coming into good form right now, having finished 321 in his last three and was still pulling late on in his win at Chelmsford last time out, suggesting the extra furlong here should suit him. He was far more comfortable than half a length might suggest, beating Admiral D, who had won at Class 2 off a mark of 87 not long ago. Bosh is only up 2lbs here and should go well again.

Aljari is probably my next best, a consistent performer on the A/W since the start of last year who can and does race prominently when called upon. he's till only 3lbs higher than his last in and should be there or thereabouts again today.

The 3pm odds don't give me a viable E/W option here...

...so I'll stick with those two above. Baldomero is a proven placer and Hieronymus might be afforded an easy lead and they'll be the main dangers to my 1-2 as far as I can see.

Racing Insights, Saturday 20/01/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...30-day form...

...1-year form...

...course 1-year form...

...course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Haydock
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 4.28 Taunton
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

But, as you can see, the recent cold snap has played havoc with the day's racing. That said, between the 'free' list and daily report, we do have eight races to aim at, including the richest race of the day, the Winter Oaks featuring two runners from the TJC report as Queen Regent and Eleanor Cross do battle with 6 other fillies in the 3.10 Lingfield, a Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap for fillies/mares over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Miss Bluebell won last time out and is two from her last five, Oh So Grand arrives here on a hat-tirck and has won four of her last six (with 2 placed finishes), whilst Storymaker has won her last four after a trio of third place finishes. Elsewhere only Eleanor Cross is winless in six, but to be fair she's only had three races to date, finishing in the frame twice.

Only hat-trick seeking Oh So Grand, Queen Regent (who wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and Behind The Scenes raced at this Class 2 level last time out, as Twirling (second handicap effort today) and Dayzee are up one class, LTO winners Miss Bluebell and Storymaker will find life tougher up two classes, whilst bottom weight Eleanor Cross is up three for her handicap debut, having failed to win at either Class 4 or 5 over this trip.

Miss Bluebell raced as recently as last Saturday, when scoring at Wolverhampton, whilst the longest break has been had by Oh So Grand and Queen Regent, who finished first and second here over course and distance 45 days ago. They were separated by a length and a quarter that day, but the runner-up is 4lbs better off here.

That win by Oh So Grand makes her the only course and distance winner, but Storymaker has won here over 7f and Miss Bluebelle has scored over this trip at Bath and Chelmsford as well as winning twice over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton, but it's Oh So Grand who steals the show on Instant Expert...

We've admittedly not got a great deal of data from a field with a combined 64 races in total and even those with red boxes have still run well in those small number of outings, making the frame regularly...

...where the more experienced Miss Bluebelle and Storymaker have proven to be A/W standard going experts. The concern with the former is the 7lb hike from her last win and the fact that is her track debut with her best form coming on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. She's drawn in stall 2 today, which has been the most successful stall in 8-runner contests over this course and distance...

...which is a positive after the 7lb rise in weights. and if she can race prominently or even set the tempo of the race, then she might have a really good chance based on this evidence below...

And fortunately for her, that's exactly what she tends to do...

Summary

Whilst Oh So Grand isn't ideally suited pace-wise based on her last two runs, the previous two were tactically ideal for this contest. If she runs that way here then, as the only Class 2 winner in the field and in great form (113211), she looks the one to beat from a low draw. She beat Queen Regent last time and although the latter is better off at the weights, her wide draw might stop her reversing the placings, but I fancy both to make the frame along with Miss Bluebell and/or Storymaker.

We've discussed Miss Bluebell already and she looks to have a decent chance of getting placed, whilst Storymaker has more experience and loves it here at Lingfield. I'll consult the market before making any selections, though.

As of 6.40pm on Friday evening, the market looked like this...

...and 9/4 probably seems about right for Oh So Grand, so I won't try to deter anyone from backing her, but I think my play here is to take the 9/1 E/W (Sky offer 4 places!) about Queen Regent who should run the fav close again, as she did in the trial for this race seven weeks ago.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.45 Hexham
  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Exeter
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

Aside from a solitary Listed race at Kempton, the highest rated races in the UK on Wednesday are five Class 3 affairs. Our ten UK races above include four of those five Class 3 races and the most valuable of them is the 2.00 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard going polytrack...

Intervention was a winner here over 7f a week ago and having won at Wolverhampton three weeks earlier, now arrives her seeking a hat-trick of wins as he drops in trip. None of his rivals here even made the frame on their last outings, but Gulliver, Navello, Expert Agent, Count Otto, Buccabay and sole mare Cuban Breeze have all at least won inside their last six.

Five of the field are class movers today, as both Gulliver and Rousing Encore drop down from Class 2 after being well beaten, whilst Buccabay, Count Otto and Expert Agent all step up from Class 4, despite failing to shine last time out. The latter, Expert Agent, makes a yard debut for Stuart Williams, having left Kevin Foy during the eight weeks since his last run. Bosh is noted on the card as a fast finisher, but having lost his last eight races, he might be better off setting for home sooner!

Rocking Ends has been off the track for over five months and might well need the run, whilst most of the field have raced in the last month or so with Count Otto, Expert Agent, Rousing Encore and Bosh coming back after 6 to 10 weeks off.

Way To Dubai and Navello are the only ones yet to win at this trip, whilst Expert Agent and Count Otto are both course and distance winners. Rocking Ends (5f), Gulliver (7f) and Intervention (7f) have also tasted victory here at Lingfield, as shown by Instant Expert...

...which suggests Gulliver, Expert Agent, Count Otto and Intervention might be some of the main contenders to win here and the latter has made the frame in similar conditions on many occasions...

...as has Count Otto without being quite a prolific from a strike rate perspective.

Of the four who caught the eye from the win graphic, we have runners in stalls 1, 2, 7 and 12 of 12, so the pace/draw stats could make interesting reading, starting as usual with the details from our draw analyser...

...where over the last 150 or so similar contests, the best draw has been the low to mid-range with stalls 1 to 5 performing best according to the PRB3 graph...

...although stalls 6 & 7 still have a rating of 0.500 or higher. This would suggest that Gulliver and Intervention would have a slight advantage over Count Otto with Expert Agent the least well drawn, but not out of it by any means, as over 6f here at Lingfield much will depend on the approach taken to the race and our pace analyser says...

...that the further forward a horse has raced in those 150+ contests above, the greater the chance of a win/place. If we then look at the field's most recent efforts...

...I'd expect Buccabay and Rocking Ends to be up with the early pace with both Intervention and Cuban Breeze for company. Expert Agent ran prominently last time out, as he did when landing back to back course and distance wins in the spring, so I'd expect him to be further forward here too. Gulliver looks like having to pass the entire field to win here and I'm not sure he's that good. I know he won four races ago, but that win came after 28 successive defeats over a 35 month period, so he's hardly reliable.

Summary

Intervention is the one for me (and probably many others) here and whilst he's at the top of the market, I think his current (5.55pm) 9/2 odds are more than fair and I'd expect him to land the hat-trick here. Expert Agent (5/1)and Buccabay (13/2) might well be the ones to chase him home, but if I was to have a longer priced E/W pick, it would probably be the 10/1 Cuban Breeze, especially with firms paying four places. She's running pretty well right now on polytrack (213 in her last three), gets weight all round and if starting well, could surprise a few from a wider draw.

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/11/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.35 Cheltenham
  • 1.19 Wetherby
  • 2.01 Lingfield
  • 2.12 Uttoxeter
  • 2.29 Wetherby
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

And with the weather in mind, I'm playing it relatively safe by heading for the A/W (whilst my wife goes to Uttoxeter!) and 2.01 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Greatgadian is our sole LTO winner, but Regheeb is two from three in the UK and Udaberri was a runner-up 16 days ago. Udaberri, however, is one of just two (along with Throne Hall) without a win in seven or more outings and he's up two classes here which probably won't help to improve his 0/12 record on the A/W!

Top-weight and LTO winner Greatgadian is up one class, as is Citizen General but Storm Catcher, Forca Timao and Thundering all drop down from Class 2. This will be Regheeb's second run in a handicap and his first outing since being gelded, whilst Expressionless wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Thundering was last seen seven weeks ago and Citizen General has had 12 weeks off, but the rest of the pack have raced in the past five weeks with five of them seen this month already.

Despite his inexperience, Regheeb has already won over course and distance and Citizen General won here over 1m5f back in May, whilst Greatgadian, Storm Catcher, Throne Hall and Thundering have all won over similar trips elsewhere as documented by Instant Expert which suggests the lower half of the draw is stronger or better suited than the higher half...

The only cause for concern above might be the apparent 13lbs difference between Citizen General's mark of 88 as opposed to his victory off 75 here in May, but he has since won off 80 on turf, so whilst he still needs a career best effort to win here, the gulf isn't quite as large. The subsequent place stats make Udaberri's form a little more appealing, but I'm already doubting his chances here...

As you've probably guessed, Expressionless makes an A/W debut after eight mainly soft/heavy ground outings on turf where he has two wins and a place after landing back to back soft ground 1m½f contests in April this year.

Our Draw Analyser says that there shouldn't be too much of a bias at play here, but if any stall are more favourable than others, then the first four stalls are the place to be and with the lower draws having the best of it from Instant Expert, that might be the place to focus upon...

And whilst there might no be much in the draw, that's certainly not the case with pace/tempo/tactics, as our Pace Analyser clearly suggests that those racing prominently or leading fare best here...

...with the low drawn prominent/leading runners enjoying the most success...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent races...

...you'd suspect the early pace is going to come from one or more of Throne Hall, Forca Timao, Regheeb or Citizen General and they take their places on the heat map as follows...

...assuming, of course, they run how they have tended to of late.

From the heat map alone, Regheeb is the one who interests me most, especially if he allows Throne hall to do the running and he just sits in behind.

Summary

I think I want to be amongst those drawn lowest and they have the best Instant Expert scores and with pace in mind, the one I'm looking at is Regheeb at 7/2 (Bet365). He's drawn low, has the ideal pace profile, he's lightly raced but has won 2 of his 3 UK starts, including a course and distance success at this grade back in September.

Greatgadian is the 9/4 or 5/2 fav here and he ticks plenty of boxes, but his lack of early pace might cost him the race. This lack of pace throughout the field might lead to an unfancied runner nicking some of the place money and if that happens, then the 11/1 Forca Timao might well be able to take advantage from out wide.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/11/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a few would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.12 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Chelmsford
  • 3.58 Fairyhouse
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 6.25 Newcastle

There are two Class 1 races on Tuesday and one of them is on our list of free races, so we're heading off for the 1.12 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Listed contest over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Al Agaila won last time out and Coco Jamboo has won her last two, but both step up two classes here. Potapova, Zellie, Good Gracious and Pastiche were all runners-up last time around, but the last of that quartet is now up three classes, whilst Julia Augusta and Taarabb are both up one level despite failing to make the frame at Class 2.

Our card doesn't have the benefit of showing Zellie's French form which read 1112212 before her fourth place in last year's 1000 Guineas, so she's not the one with the longest losing run on display here, that would be Potapova, Queen Aminatu and Tarrabb, who all won seven races ago.

It's not a handicap contest, so all runners carry 9-2 with a 2lb allowance for the five 3yo's in the race, making Zellie and Nigiri joint best off at the weights with Coco Jamboo rated some 15lbs worse and I suspect the top four in the official ratings would be a useful starting point for someone who didn't want to analyse the full field.

Most of the field have raced inside the last 40 days and Tarrabb ran in early September, but Julia Augusta and Zellie have been off for six months, so their fitness might have to be taken on trust.

All bar Coco Jamboo, Pastiche and Zouky have already won over a mile, but only two have won here at Lingfield before (mind you, only three have run here!). Al Agaila has finished 311 in three starts here, winning twice over 1m2f after finishing third over this trip, whilst Queen Animatu's record here reads 113 with a win and a place over 7f and a win in this very race last year, making her the sole course and distance winner. For the sake of tying loose ends up, the other Lingfield run by this field saw Zouki finish last of five back in March after a 6-month break.

All this course/distance form is shown in Instant Expert, of course, along with results on standard going and Class 1 action...

...where Al Agaila and Queen Aminatu look the ones setting the standard. In addition to the above, three of these have raced at Class 2 on the A/W, with Al Agaila winning two of three, Queen Animatu winning her only attempt and Coco Jamboo finishing 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton in March.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that there's no real advantage to a high or low draw, based on the evidence of almost 200 past similar races...

...but the Pace Analyser says that the further forward you can race, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame, based on that same set of races...

...and this is how the field have approached their last two races...

Summary

I suggested that those people wanting to avoid a full race analysis might want to focus upon Zellie, Potapova, Queen Animatu and Nigiri and I think this quartet along with the in-form and Instant Expert-highlighted Al Agaila will be the main protagonists.

I'd expert all bar Queen Aminatu of that bunch to race prominently, but she makes up for it by having an excellent set of numbers on Instant Expert. The early market would seem to agree with my shortlist here...

..and if those are the odds I've to play with, Al Agaila is the most obvious E/W option with Bet365 paying four places. As for a winner, there won't be much in it, but I'm hoping Queen Animatu gets towed into it earlier than normal, because I think she's best suited here if not left with too much work to do. 9/2 is probably about right here too.

Zellie is a classy filly who has won at Group 1 in France and was fourth in last year's 100 Guineas and I'd say she was the best horse in the race, but I'd be concerned about her needing a run after six months off. Potapova and Nigiri should both be in the mix, but I don't think they're quite at the level of Zellie/Queen Animatu, but I wouldn't be massively shocked if one or both edged my E/W pick out of the money and with Bet365 paying the first four home, I'm tempted with an E/W saver on Nigiri, especially if she drifts out a little.

Racing Insights, Thursday 02/11/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Thurles
  • 2.10 Wolverhampton
  • 2.15 Newcastle
  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Thurles
  • 3.30 Stratford

Our free races above are all pretty low grade affairs, so I'm just going to blindly look at the day's highest rated races instead, of which there are four Class 3 contests. I'm happy to swerve the pair of Novice Hurdle contests, leaving me with a 7-runner chase and a 9-runner hurdle. As I do like the odd E/W flutter, I'm going to focus on the latter, which happens to be the 1.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m on good to soft/soft ground. More rain is coming, so I expect this to be run on soft ground...

Bottom weight Havaila was a 75-;ength winner of a two-horse race on his last effort over hurdles (April) but has kept sharp with a run on the flat three weeks ago. Hecouldbetheone has been a runner-up in each of his last two and has won two of six, whilst all bar Front View have a win in their most recent form line.

Plenty of class-movers here, as Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone, Believe Jack and Havaila all step up one level and Made For You is up three. Go Dante drops a class and Branson Missouri drops two. This will be handicap debut day for both Believe Jack and Hecouldbetheone and the latter runs for Chris Gordon for the first time since leaving Gary Moore. Front View wears a tongue tie for the first time here, as does top-weight Go Dante.

Yorksea, Front View and Havaila have all had the benefit of a run in the last three weeks, but Made For You, Go Dante and Totterdown have been off for 6-8 months. Branson Missouri returns from a 10-month absence, whilst the handicap debutants Hecouldbetheone and Believe Jack might well need the run after layoffs of 19 and 22 months respectively.

Branson Missouri is the only one of these to have raced here at Lingfield before (2nd of 10, beaten by 8.5 lengths in Nov '22 over 2m3½f) and he's also one of six to have scored over a similar trip to this one, with only Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone and Havaila yet to do so, as documented by Instant Expert...

Not a lot to report upon there, but Go Dante's two soft ground wins are interesting and he ahs won at the trip. Front View and Made For You have poor win records on soft ground, but I think we need some help from the place data...

...which paints a much better picture for many of these, but I'm not sure it helps me narrow the race down, aside from casting Totterdown from the process.

Our Pace Analyser gives us the following data from past similar contests...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...probably points to Havaila as the prominent runner ready to pounce on the leaders.

Summary

If I'm brutally honest, I'm not getting any strong feeling for this race and my advice would be to leave it and walk away.

The Geegeez ethos is that if there isn't a bet there, don't force one, so I'm declaring this a no bet for me. The early market suggests a 3-horse race...

..and they're probably right, but there's not enough to interest me in any of that trio at 7/2 or shorter and I'm not keen on any of the longer-priced runners. Fingers crossed for a better choice fo race tomorrow!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/07/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Dundalk
  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 6.40 Bath
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only generated the following runner for me to consider...

That said, Dalby Forest does run in one of our free races, so let's focus upon that 5.40 Lingfield race. It's a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground. The track is firm in places, but with rain forecast, I'd imagine it'll remain good to firm for these runners...

...from which we have no LTO winners, but with a three race form line of 212, Skallywag Bay brings the best results to the table. She has won two of her last six plus those two runner-up finishes, Dalby Forest has a win and a place from his last three, Dynamite Katie has a win and a place from her last five and Betweenthesticks won seven races ago. Lipsink, Just That Lord and So Smart are winless in their last 10, 7 and 9 races respectively, but the latter has at least made the frame in three of his five runs this season.

Both Skallywag Bay and Dnamic Katie step up one class here, whilst it's a yard debut for bottom weight and oldest (10 yo now!) runner Just That Lord, who might well need the run after an 11-month absence. Featured horse Dalby Forest hasn't raced for four months, but the remainder of the field have all had at least one outing in the last four weeks.

None of these have won at Lingfield before, mind you only two of them (Dalby Forest & Just That Lord) have raced on this turf strip, visiting here just once each (Dalby Forest did at least make the frame when third of nine over 6f on his sole Flat run to date, back in May 2022!). The trip, however, shouldn't be an issue as all bar Dynamic Katie are past 5f winners (her win was over 7f at Dundalk), although Skallywag Bay's 5f win was on the A/W here three weeks ago.

We have two fillies in the race, Skallywag Bay and Dynamic Katie and they are two of our three 3yo runners (Betweenthesticks being the other) who receive a very handy 5lb weight for age allowance here, which could be crucial over a fast 5f. Instant Expert doesn't really paint a great picture of this field from a Flat win perspective...

...and whilst I don't know a great deal about these runners, I am aware that some of them have consistently come close to winning those races above...

...where So Smart catches the eye with some consistent performances under expected conditions. Sadly his recent run of making the frame in three from five this season isn't bringing his mark down to a winning one and he's up a pound here after a half length defeat last time out, pushing his OR back to 6lbs higher than his last win, but those numbers above suggest he's due to go well yet again.

He is, of course, drawn widest of all seven and somewhat surprisingly for a straight 5f on quick ground, there has been an advantage from being drawn highest...

...suggesting that he and Lipsink might well be best suited by occupying stalls 6 & 7. The Pace Analysis of those races speaks for itself...

...although the resultant pace/draw heat map might spring a shock by suggesting that it is the low-drawn leaders who fare best of all...

I think this implies that the pace aspect of the contest might well be important than the draw and this ties in with my own thoughts. There really shouldn't be much of a draw bias in a small field over a straight sprint, but early pace quite often wins the race. It takes a super effort to come from off the pace over a quick five furlongs and if this field's last few runs are anything to go by, this could be a right tear-up...

Summary

I don't think the pace and/or draw stats are going to help us much here. There shouldn't be an advantage from any part of the draw and the inference from the draw data is they're all inclined to 'go for it'. The vulnerable ones could well be Dalby Forest and Just That Lord after long lay-offs and they might need the run, which is always conducive to going well in a burn-up.

Skallywag Bay is in the best form and gets a useful 5lb weight allowance, which might well make her the one to beat here, but is she a 6/4 or 13/8 shot? Probably not. I'm not saying she can't or shouldn't win this, but I'd not want to back her at those odds. Next best on my reckoning is So Smart, whose consistency might be the key here, he certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn and has been knocking on the door this season. Odds of 7/2 aren't overly generous, but are at least fair, so I'll have a couple of quid there.

Some firms will pay three places and Lipsink will be popular, based on his instant Expert data, but I think that former Class 3 winner Betweenthesticks has the potential to make the frame here, especially as he too gets that 5lb allowance and his 5lb claimer has ridden him to victory twice already. 6/1 or even 13/2 would normally be a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but if you're getting three places in a seven-horse race, that's acceptable.

Racing Insights, Monday 19/06/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Windsor
  • 7.43 Kilbeggan

And as PACE is the free feature, let's tackle a sprint in the 5.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Spirit of Breeze and Sabah Al Ward are still maidens after five and four attempts respectively and neither have even made the frame and I don't see that changing here. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last five outings with Alpine Goal the sole LTO winner.

That was here over course and distance (Diomed Spirit has also won over C&D) less than a fortnight ago and she now steps up one class (as does Cuban Grey) and she is denoted as being a fast finisher. Destiny's Spirit and Cuban Grey are also both former winners over this trip.

Most of the field have raced in the last six weeks, but Diomed Spirit may need the run after a run of poor form last season was halted by a six months absence and he might well need the run and he's probably carrying too weight here.

Elsewhere, Sabah Al Ward runs in a handciap for the just the second time and now wears a hood for the first time as well as a first time in a tongue tie. Spirit of Breeze also makes a debut in a tongue-tie.

I already think that this race is beyond the two maidens and Diomed Spirit's long layoff after some poor runs makes me uncomfortable, so I'm only really interested in these runners on Instant Expert...

...where Cuban Grey looks like one to be swerved! His stats on standard going and over this trip are particularly awful and he's going to sent packing from my analysis, unless he's just been unluvky and has made the frame regularly...

The numbers are admittedly better, but he's still the worst of the four and has to say goodbye, leaving us with runners in stalls 3, 4 & 6, but over the last 100 or so races over this course and distance, there doesn't seem to be any discernible advantage to being in a certain stall...

...although stall 3's stats are the best, but I think not anomalous and unreliable, whereas feature of the day, the PACE angle, is a totally different matter...

...where the data suggests the further forward you race, the better chance of winning/placing, suiting Skallywag Bay best of all, if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

The three horses I've left in to the PACE analysis are the three I'd want to be with. Destiny's Spirit looks the outlier here and least likely to win, but at 16/1 with Skybet paying three places must be worth a small E/W punt.

As for the other pair, they're the market leaders and I know the pace says Skallywag Bay should make all and win, I just think that Alpine Girl's C&D win last time out might just edge it for her here. Either way Alpine Girl at 9/4 and Skallywag Bay at 7/2 would be my two for the reverse forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Saturday 03/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day overall form...

1-year overall form...

Course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.50 Epsom
  • 1.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.45 Stratford
  • 6.10 Lingfield
  • 8.00 Tramore

...and although the Epsom 'freebie' is a Group 3 contest, we do have a qualifier from my TJC Report running in a 'free' race, so we're heading twenty miles South East of the Downs for the 6.10 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard polytrack...

Featured horse Citizen General is the only LTO winner in the field, having won here over slightly further (1m5f) three weeks ago, taking his current run to three wins and a runner-up finish from his last five outings. Of his rivals, only Appier had a top 3 finish on their last run and he also won two starts ago. Open Champion, Arcadian Friend and Night Eagle are the others with a win inside their last five runs.

Citizen General is up in class here, as are Nawras, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King, but top-weight Open Champion actually drops down a level here from a ninth place (of 10!) finish at Epsom 39 days ago. That break is the longest of the six to have had a recent run, but Bright Start, Nawras and Arcadian Friend might be a little rusty coming off respective absences of 132, 203 and 255 days.

Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have won at neither track nor trip, but the other six have done both with four (Open Champion, Appier, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King) having won over course and distance at the same time. This will be Nawras' handicap debut after just four stats, whilst it's Liseo's seventh outing, but only his second in a handicap and his first in cheekpieces.

Aside from not winning here or over this trip, Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have no A/W wins yet, according to Instant Expert...

It turns out that the trio are actually 0 from 20 between them and despite making the frame in 5 of his 10 starts, the winless Bright Start must be vulnerable here and if I was to discard any runners here, if would be the bottom foru on the above graphic, leaving me with (in draw order)...

Arcadian Friend is probably the weakest of the five on that evidence and carrying 10lbs more than his last win might prove difficult here, but he is drawn highest of my quintet for a race that has favoured those drawn highest, especially for the places...

...but as you all probably know, I'm not a massive fan of the school of thought that says the draw can't kill you before you stat over trips like this, so we should focus on tactics/race positioning ie pace and those races above haven't been overly kind to pace-setters or dwellers...

...with those racing just off the pace or in mid-field reaping the most rewards, which might suit the bottom trio on this graphic more than the two above them...

...with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that Open Champion could be well suited here...

Summary

Open Champion looks well placed to bounce back to form after struggling on unsuitably soft ground LTO and he did won over course and distance on his only other previous visit to Lingfield. He's currently priced at 10/1 with Bet365 and I think that's a decent price for an E/W tilt.

I say E/W, because I think featured horse Citizen General and Appier tick more boxes for me based on the evidence/data above and whilst I doubt there'll be much between them, Citizen General won last time out and he won here, so he just edges it for me. The bookies also think it'll be tight and they've gone 10/3 joint favs on the pair.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.

Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 03/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers at Newcastle's evening meet for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races, which sadly (for me) is very Dundalk-heavy...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

I've no real interest in Dundalk, but the Lingfield contest looks a better one than the Newcastle H4C report races, so let's focus on the 3.00 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack, where a first prize of almost £13k awaits one of these...

Dora Penny and Laheg both won LTO, whilst Baldomero, Crimson Sand and Tolstoy were runners-up, but Lequinto has failed to make the frame in five starts since back-to-back wins at Windsor last summer.

LTO winner Laheg is up a class here as is Aberama Gold, but Crimson Sand, Lequinto and the fast finisher Embour all drop down from Class 2.

Last year's winner of this race, Jack's Point and Crimson Sand have been off track the longest at 274 & 243 days respectively and both make debuts for their new yards here.

Baldomero is the only one yet to win at this trip, but hasn't yet tackled it and has won over 7f. Laheg is the only Lingfield debutant on display and of his rivals, Baldomero, Dora Penny, Lequinto and Tolstoy have yet to score here after 13 combined attempts. Embour won here over 5f (and over 6f on turf), but Crimson Sand, Jack's Point, Tyger Bay, Aberama Gold and Count Otto are all former course and distance winners.

It's a competitive field with the assessor only rating top weight Baldomero 6lbs better than bottom weight Count Otto, so William Carver's 3lb allowance on Tyger Bay could be very handy.

Most of these have experienced similar conditions before and here's how they've got on...

That's largely satisfactory, if not exactly spectacular. Most of them have done well enough, so let's look at the negatives, which for me are Baldomero's 1 from 10 on Standard going, Lequinto's record at class/track and Aberama Gold at class/trip. The latter is shown as being 8lbs below his last A/W win, but that was here over course and distance just before Christmas 2020! He has made the frame just once in 15 A/W starts since then. He has won on turf off just 2lbs higher than this as recently as five months ago, but has toiled away from grass.

I'm going to look at place form, though, before I discard any of these from my reckoning...

...and this is more useful/insightful for me. You don't win if you don't make the frame and the upturn in Baldomero's numbers for example suggest he's a better horse than just wins might show. I don't make too much fuss about field size, if I'm honest, but when considering place form, I only really want to be on runners with at least 2 'greens' from the four going/class/course/distance tabs, which for this race leaves me with (in draw order)...

I am a little concerned about Jack's Point form on standard going, even if he did win this race last year off the same mark as today. He has only raced three times since, failing to make the frame and was beaten by over 16 lengths when last home of seven at Chelmsford nine months ago. I really don't fancy his chance on yard debut, so I'm down to five spread across the track (Crimson Sand will run from #11) where the lower the draw the better chance of winning/placing...

However, that's not exactly true, as stall 1 hasn't fared as well due to the bend, I'd presume, which isn't great for Laheg. The stalls 2 to 8 corridor looks the place to be and that's where four of my six are and although high draws haven't had the best of it, box 11 of 11 has still done reasonably well, but I suspect that Crimson Sand would have to get out pretty sharpish to get near the front early on to stand much chance of landing this, especially based on this...

...which, in turn, removes any element of surprise from this...

And to see who the front runner might be, we check the pace scores from the field's last four races...

...where I suspect Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg will be the most prominent.

Summary

So, the three I've whittled it down to are Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg, although I have a sneaking suspicion that Tyger Bay might go well here back at Lingfield. Crimson Sand is ultra-consistent at making the frame on the A/W with a pair of fourth placed finishes his worst results in a dozen outings. He's currently 8/1 with Hills, but some firms are paying four places and that would make him a decent enough E/W pick.

Baldomero is the one that I think might win, he has a good record over 7f and with a fairly brisk pace expected here, he could well win over 6f at the first time of asking, but Laheg will pose some questions for sure. He comes off a 10-week break during which he was gelded and he's 2 from 3 over 6f on the A/W, having won quite cosily last time out. This pair are 7/2 and 11/2 respectively and they're ones to focus on, I'd have thought.

Please note, I'm away on business with my other job for a couple of days, so my next piece will be a preview of Tuesday's racing.