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Racing Insights, 3rd March 2021

According to some, Wednesday is "hump" day, whereas here at Geegeez, it's simply free Trainer Stats Report day. And as well as that, we have a selection of full free racecards on offer, such as...

  • 12.30 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Musselburgh
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 7.50 Kempton

And I think we'll look at the Trainer Stats Report today and the 1 year course handicap form in particular, which gives us three runners across two races to consider...

We'll start with Curtiz in the 1.40 Lingfield...

Curtiz got off the mark at the eighth time of asking last time out when wining here over course and distance despite a 90-day layoff. He looked like he still had something in reserve, so a 3lb rise in weight shouldn't necessarily be his undoing.

We know his yard have a good 12-month record in handicaps, but most of his runners race over shorter trips than today. That said, his 1m-1m2f handicappers are 5 from 18 (26.3% SR, A/E 1.75) here since the start of 2017 and they include 32 winners from 8 (37.5% SR, A/E 3.61) over this course and distance.

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Having just 4 A/W handicap runs to his name that have seen him finish 9241, we were never going to get much from Instant Expert, but it is at least good to see that his sole win was on Standard going over class, course and distance. You see he's up 3lb (as I said) for that win and I can also tell you that today's jockey Charlie Bennett was in the saddle, Curtiz wasn't the favourite, he'd been off the track for more than a month (5 weeks this time) and again he wasn't wearing blinkers, as he has in the past.

Leaders tend not to fare well in these types of contests, whilst there's a fairly even split of winners from the three other racing styles, although the win % figures decrease the further back in the pack you race. Curtiz likes to race prominently, which is probably the best tactic, depending on his draw...

...he's actually in stall 4 and there's no real "right place" to be from there, but a prominent position does look his best chance of winning here. I'll make my mind up on him once I've looked at his opposition, but first...

...I need to move on to the 3.55 Lingfield...

...where we have two to consider. Top weight is Hughie Morrison's Rosemary And Thyme, who doesn't appear to have been done any favours by the assessor on her return from a six-month break. She was 5th of 9, beaten by 8.5 lengths over 6f on heavy ground when last seen, "earning" her a mark of 75 and although she's 5lbs lower on the A/W, 70 seems punitive to me about a filly who has shown little to date.

Further bad news comes from the facts that Hughie Morrison's 6f handicappers are just 1 from 13 here, whilst his 3yo fillies are 0 from 15 here since the start of 2017.

Propagation also makes a handicap debut for Charles Hills and the yard is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR, A/E 1.62) with Lingfield handicap debutants since the start of 2019. We know about the yard's record here over the last year, but since the start of 2019, their 'cappers are 3/8 over 6f here and 6/22 as 3 yr olds, and are 5 from 14 at Class 5, which could be could news for a horse making just a fourth start.

His last run was arguably better than Rosemary's, as he was beaten by 2.25 lengths here over 5f five weeks ago. he was doing his best work late on and shaped as though the extra yardage here might help, although he doesn't look the sharpest/quickest.

In a contest where our runners are both on handicap debut, having performed modest in their previous three outings, Instant Expert will tell us very little, so we'll skip straight to the pace/draw angle, as this is likely to be of paramount importance over 6f here, where it pays to lead and if you can't lead, get as far forward as you can. If you can do neither, then frankly you're in trouble...

Propagation is an out and out hold up horse and by passing 8 runners late on here over 6f isn't easy for experienced horses, never mind a 3 yr old handicap debutant, whilst Rosemary has led or raced prominently in two of her three starts and may well move further to the right of that graphic here. She's drawn handily in stall 5 where she can keep out of trouble without being pushed too wide, but Propagation will have to take the scenic route if he's to win from a stall 1/hold-up combo.

Summary

In our first race, Curtiz is up against 13 rivals, so it's going to be tough over ten furlongs, but he's not badly drawn in #4 and he's probably the pace angle in the race, the next ones most likely to race prominently are in stalls 8-14, so he might be afforded an easy lead. If he can hold on, he's a great chance of winning, but I'm not convinced he'll manage it. I definitely see him making the frame, but if he is to win, he's going to have to see off the likes of El Conquistador (11/4). 7/2 is too short for an E/W punt on Curtiz, but I did find Cafe Milano interesting at 9/1 for those seeking a longer priced bet.

We have two in race two and to be honest, I don't fancy either of them particularly. I've too many negatives about each to want to back either at 4/1 or shorter. I prefer Propagation of the two and he could sneak into the places, but I've got the 3/1 River Wharfe as my winner here and you could possibly throw a blanket over four or five horses for the places. It's not a race I'd want to play in.

Racing Insights, 27th February 2021

Last preview piece for the month and the 'feature of the day' is the fabulous Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats report, whilst our full free-to-all race cards will cover the following...

  • 3.00 Kempton
  • 3.10 Lingfield
  • 3.35 Kempton
  • 4.45 Kempton
  • 5.10 Fairyhouse

Re :  the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats report, there wasn't much on offer that satisfied my fairly strict parameters, although the Skeltons are 10 from 21 in handicaps over the last fortnight and have three out at Kempton, so they might be worth a second look, but I'm going A/W racing for the 3.10 Lingfield, which is a 7-runner, Class 3, Polytrack handicap over 1m4f worth £7,246. I expect Cardano to be the favourite here, but is that justified? The only way to find out is by looking at the race, starting, as ever, with the card itself...

Cardano is top weight here, top rated on the Geegeez Ratings and arrives in great form seeking a hat-trick of course and distance successes inside 7 weeks. Interestingly, both wins were at Class 2 and he now takes a drop in class. He's up another 4lbs for that last win, but a jockey change sees a 3lb claimer in the saddle negating most of that rise, as his jockey from those last two runs now rides stablemate Luckys Dream. Both are trained by Ian Williams, whose handicappers are 8 from 44 (18.2% SR) here at Lingfield since the start of 2020.

Guroor is one of two 5yr old mares in this contest (Torochica is the other) and she tends to be there or thereabouts, though she doesn't win as often as you'd like. She was third here over course and distance last time out and was also third over this trip at Wolverhampton in her other 2021 run. Prior to that she had won four times and been a runner-up twice from her previous nine outings. She's 3lbs worse off than her last run, mind and she does step up in class, so she's not an obvious winner here, but our neural ratings have her as second best.

Lucky's Dream is the afore-mentioned Cardano's stablemate and he's second in the weights (carries 6lbs less) and is a close third on the Geegeez Ratings. Stamina won't be an issue for this one, as he won a 2m A/W bumper here almost six weeks ago and was less than three lengths off the pace in another 2m A/W bumper at Kempton last time despite getting a poor (IMO) ride. Richard Kingscote moves from Cardano to ride this one and he's already got one win and one place from three outings with Lucky's Dream.

Songkran is probably better on turf, where he is 4 from 11 as opposed to 1 from 5 on the A/W, but he did finish a runner-up here over course and distance last time out, when beaten by just half a length last week. On face value that run puts him right in the mix here, but he's 2lbs higher today and up in class, but trainer George Boughey's horses are in great nick right now and jockey Ryan Moore is 19 from 56 (33.9% SR) on this track since the start of 2019, including finishes of 126111311 this year so far.

Night Bear was disappointing when finishing 5th of 7 over this trip in a lower grade at Wolverhampton last time out, but he was only beaten by a length and a quarter in a tight race over this track, trip and class on New Year's Eve. Yet to even make the frame in four starts on the A/W , you'd have to imagine that even the booking of the talented Hollie Doyle won't be enough for this one to win.

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Torochica is the other 5yr old mare in the contest and aside from Cardano, the only other course and distance winner on show, acquired two starts and seven weeks ago off a mark just 4lbs lower than today. Normally that would make her of interest here, but she's up in class her and decent runs on the A/W have been few and far between, plus it's 31 rides and 45 days since her jockey last won a race. I'll pass on this one!

Last and probably least here, we have the bottom weight Margaret Dumont, a lightly raced 4 yr old filly. I'm not saying she's a poor horse, but her form line of 31343 flatters her as closer inspection shows her to have been 3rd of 5, 4th of 5 and 3rd of 4 in her three handicap starts to date, She's generally weak in the finish, has never raced on the A/W, has been off the track for six months and has left Mark Johnston's yard during her lay-off. A watching brief at best.

*

These seven runners include 2 x course and distance winners, 3 x course winners, 4 x distance winners and 5 x polytrack winners, Between them they have made the frame in 58 of 127 outings, a respectable 45.7%, including 30 (23.6%) wins. The one best suited to today's conditions should be readily apparent via Instant Expert...

Unsurprisingly, the past winners are all on higher marks than when they last won and both the Ian Williams runners are showing good numbers with Lucky's Dream looking best off for me.

He has the rail to run along here, but is stall 1 a good place to be?

Probably not, to be fair. The stats suggest that stalls 4 to 7 are more fruitful places to be for winners, but stall 1 does make the frame often enough. The draw alone won't break or break a horse's chances, of course, as race positioning and pace is equally if not more important. So where should a horse position itself?

Ideally, you want to race prominently, but not lead and if you can't race prominently, it's best to sit right back off the pace. Obviously the draw can also contribute to how the race gets run and if we look at how the draw and race pace interact...

...we find that almost incongruously, mid-drawn runners sitting in mid division have fared best, but that's because 8 of 9 mid-divisional runners happened to come from a middle draw, whilst other running styles have shared their winners around...

Aside from that possibly anomalous stat, it's as you'd expect from our data, stalls 4 and above racing prominently being the favoured option here. Which all begs the question, how do these seven normally run? Well, as you all know by now, we can show you...

The pace here is likely to come from the fav Cardano in stall 3 with Songkran also seeming to have a good spot on the chart. Lucky's Dream's best chance would likely be if he moved back a notch and sat in. Closer analysis of his running style in last four show that he raced prominently three starts ago, but has been held up in the other three of his last four runs. I suspect he'll be held up for a late run here and that should suit perfectly.

Summary

I suspect Cardano will attempt to win this off the front end and be pursued by Songkran with Lucky's Dream biding his time for a late run in the hands of the experienced Richard Kingscote. I'm of the thinking that these would be the three I'd want to be making my final selection from today and jockey bookings might well be very important.

Cardano is up in weight here and it's not easy for a jockey to judge the fractions correctly and make all here at Lingfield, so we look at the rider and we know Richard Kingscote has "defected" from Cardano to Lucky's Dream and although 3lb claimer Ray Dawson made all to win a Listed event here fifteen weeks ago, that was only over six furlongs and he's 0 from 34 since.

Based on the jockey info and the Instant Expert numbers, I want to side with Lucky's Dream in a possible Ian Williams 1-2, Songkran would be the one most likely to upset that prediction, I'd say.

Lucky's Dream currently trades at 9/2, which is probably about right, whereas Cardano doesn't look to offer much value at 2/1. Not based on the above anyway!

Racing Insights, 26th February 2021

Our four against the field finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th and although I didn't get them the right way around again, I hope some of you are finding me narrowing the field down useful. The horse expected to be a short favourite ended up winning at 4/1 after I said I couldn't back him at 2/1. Had he been 4's last night, my piece might have looked different, but no aftertiming or backtracking on Geegeez! Hopefully some of you did some exacta/trifecta perms as they paid 19/1 and 64/1 respectively.

Those that didn't might need some help finding a bet for Friday, so to assist you, the Horses For Courses report is available to everyone, as are the full cards for the following races...

  • 2.35 Exeter
  • 3.00 Gowran Park
  • 4.00 Dundalk
  • 4.23 Warwick
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

And I think I'll have a look at the chances of three horses that interest me from the Horses For Courses report...

Starting with Rakematiz in the 1.10 Lingfield...

Rakematiz was third here at Lingfield over 1m2f and beaten by just a quarter of a length three starts ago off a mark of 62. He ten stepped up to today's trip to win over course and distance off the same mark, but struggled last time out.

He was raised 5lbs for that last run and dropped back down in trip to 1m2f and could only manage to finish 8th of 10, beaten by six lengths.

Trainer Brett Johnson's horses seem to be running better than usual so far this year, making the frame in 12 of 21 (57.1%) runs and going on to win five times (23.8% SR, A/E 1.37), whilst since the start of 2018, his A/W runners racing over trips of 1m4f to 2m have placed in 19 of 43 (44.2%), winning 9 of them (20.9% SR, A/E 1.46).

We know that the horse has a 64.3% place strike rate and a 28.6% win strike rate here at Lingfield, but here's how he has performed generally in A/W handicaps to date...

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A solid line of green for the place and a solid amber line for the win suggests conditions are ideal for him here to hopefully go on and make the frame. If he can do that, then it opens the possibility for the win, of course.

We also know that he's drawn in stall 2 and in recent 13-runner contests here , that's the second most successful stall after box 11...

...the heat map above tells us that the ideal pace/draw scenario is to race prominently from a middle draw, but we know we're in stall 2, so Rakematiz probably needs to lead or be held up to maximise his chances and we can see below how he has run in his last four outings...

...and he is indeed, a hold up horse, which is another positive.

We've obviously only isolated him from the field, but without looking at what he's up against, I wouldn't want to commit myself as to his chances, but I see no real negatives so far.

*

And now to the 7.30 Dundalk, which interestingly has two possibles fitting my fairly tight criteria...

Sunset Nova has raced here at Dundalk 10 times in his last 11 starts and has finished 211313 in his last six here, spread over the past three months. He won over this distance here two starts ago, but after a jockey change and a rise in weight, he ended up 8lbs worse off when upped in trip to 7f, resulting in him going down by just over 4 lengths in third place. AJ Slattery, who is 3 from 7 on the horse here at Dundalk, is back in the saddle today, taking 3lbs off as the horse drops back in trip.

Eglish on the other hand, isn't in quite as good a run of form and her best recent run came when second over course and distance three starts ago when runner-up to stablemate War Hero who beat her by half a length off today's mark. She is a former course and distance winner, but most of her wins have been at 7f.

Sunset Nova has the edge on form so far. We already know about their win and place percentages here at Dundalk, but more generally here's how they've performed in all A/W handicaps...

Both stack up really well here and although Eglish's apparent dominance over the distance is mainly down to her 7f form, both look like they could make the frame. I wouldn't say either had the edge on this section, but we should note that both are a few pounds higher than their last winning marks.

These two are drawn in the lowest third of the draw in stalls 1 & 4 and in the last 55 similar contests, stall 1 has 7 wins to stall 4's 4 wins. Par here would be 4.23 (55/13), so stall 4 has slightly underperformed, but stall 1 has the second highest number of wins at 169% of par expectation (IV = 1.69), making Sunset Nova the notional winner of the battle on draw...

So, they're both drawn low meaning that the ideal scenario is for them to lead or at least race prominently...

...but that's not the case and both tend to be waited with. Yet, that's not disastrous if they hang back a little further than the average of the last four races suggest they might. Sunset Nova last achieved a pace score of 1 (held up) three starts ago and his pace profile reads 2212, so I'd expect him to race slightly further forward than his average, but Eglish's last four reads 1132 with her being held up in each of her last two runs, so she may well drop further back today. Not a lot between the two here, but Eglish looks marginally more favourable.

As with the Lingfield runner, I've no real negatives against either of these two for a place so far, but I do need to consider the opposition.

Summary

After going away and looking at the bigger picture of both races, here's where I am...

The Lingfield race looks like G for Gabriel (5/1) or Peace Prevails (10/1) for me, but in behind them I have Dream Magic (18/1), Mister Blue (4/1) and our highlighted runner Rakematiz, currently priced at 9/1. Some bookies are offering 4 places and Rakematiz has a really good chance of making the first four home, but Peace Prevails looks a better bet to me, whilst Dream Magic offers better value.

Whilst, later at Dundalk, I've got the 6/1 Sunset Nova to finish ahead of Eglish, who trades at 8/1 but I don't see either of them winning this. If they're both going to make the frame, however, they're going to have to hope that the 11/4 fav Togoville or 13/2 runner Fridtjof Nansen fail to spark. Sunset Nova is best placed to make the frame of the two we've considered, but 6/1 isn't great for an E/W bet, but neither is the 8/1 about Eglish, so I'd probably leave both alone here. If I did get involved, the 12/1 offered about Fit For Function looked interesting.

 

Racing Insights, 5th February 2021

Well, I was right that Hotspur would try and ultimately fail to win from the front at Southwell this afternoon, but sadly didn't get the right horse to beat him. The course specialist roared back to form and made me look a bit stupid, considering my penchant for stats.

Friday, however, is another day and gives me another chance at solving the puzzle. Feature of the day is the Horses for Courses (H4C) report and our free races are...

  • 12.40 Lingfield
  • 2.30 Catterick
  • 3.20 Chepstow
  • 5.00 Dundalk

And with the following snippet from the H4C report featuring a runner from one of our featured races...

...I think we should look at that 12.40 Lingfield race : a 7-runner, Class 5, 1m, A/W (poly) handicap for 4yo+ horses worth £3429 to the winner. Here's the full card for the contest...

Rogue Tide is the only LTO winner in the field, Thrill Seeker has been runner-up in each of his last two starts and the H4C horse, Accomplice was a winner two starts ago. These three set the standard on form and unsurprisingly head the Geegeez ratings.

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Accomplice is a 7 yr old mare and although beaten into fourth place over C&D last time out, she was beaten by less than a length behind Rogue Tide, but she re-opposes 3lbs better off this time. She has won 5 of 19 (as per H4C) here at Lingfield including 5 from 15 over course and distance, including 3 wins from 8 over C&D with David Probert in the saddle.

Thrill Seeker was a runner-up over C&D here last time out going down by just a length 12 days ago and previously was also a runner-up over this trip at Southwell but was well beaten by 8.5 lengths that day. Runs off the same mark here, so might still have a little more to find to win, but his form line will no doubt make him popular. His yard is in good nick and the Trainer/Jockey combo are 12 from 37 here over the last five years.

Rogue Tide won here over C&D last time out, beating Accomplice, of course. He was only a short head in front of the runner-up that day and a 3lb rise to a career-high mark of 75 might prove problematic, as he struggled previously off 73. Yard is 6 from 22 in the last fortnight, however and the jockey rides this track well.

Hector Loza was seventh on that very same (Rogue Tide/Accomplice) race and was beaten by just over 3.5 lengths. He's now 5lbs better off with the winner and normally you'd say that could make him competitive, but the sad fact is that he hasn't even made the frame in nine starts since moving away from Novice company, where his best form (113) happened. Tends to set off too quickly, does too much early doors and fades. A new approach is needed if he's ever to do anything. The in-form Hollie Doyle takes the ride, so that's a positive at least.

Gold Ribbon is a 4 yr old filly yet to make the frame in six starts and hails from a yard whose last 13 runners over a near-three week period have all been beaten. She herself was a well beaten sixth at Wolverhampton ten days ago going down by the thick end of ten lengths off today's mark. Plenty to do here just to get involved.

Warne's Army has made the frame just once in five starts during an on-off career so far. Didn't run well in two starts last June after 31 weeks off the track and now makes a Polytrack debut off just 2lbs lower after another 32 week absence. Hard to get enthusiastic about her chances, but trainer Mark Johnston is no mug, has a great record at this track and has been firing winners in of late (17 from 47 over the last month). Others appeal much more here.

Ruby Gates won here in mid-March over course and distance last year off a mark of 70 and goes here off 67, mainly due to a string of poor runs since that win where this 8 yr old mare has finished last of 10, last of 8, 8th of 12 and 9th of 12 and never nearer than 12 lengths behind the winner. So, yes she's well weighted here and her jockey has a good course record (10 from 57 over the last year), but a return to wining ways looks unlikely.

*

Nothing above changes my mind that will be a three horse race between the three form horses, but let's assess race suitability via Instant Expert...

I've gone with one year form here, as most runners have been fairly active over the past 12 months ad again we've got our three versus the field again with Ruby Gates also showing well, thanks to that C&D win last March. My three main protagonists are drawn across the stalls in boxes 1, 4 & 7 and similar past races have favoured the higher end of the draw...

Draw order gives us an Accomplice / Rogue Tide / Thrill Seeker preference, whilst the pace/draw stats tell us that highly drawn mid-division runners fare best followed by mid-drawn leaders and then those drawn high and are held up. Overlaying our runners gives us this suggested race pattern...

...which would suggest Accomplice / Rogue Tide / Thrill Seeker from our main three runners.

Summary

Alphabetically, it has to be between Accomplice, Rogue Tide & Thrill Seeker based on the above evidence and it's Accomplice that I like best after going through the data etc. He tops the Geegeez ratings, is drawn best of the three, has the best pace/draw make-up of the three and is the horses for courses runner. He fares well on Instant Expert and is in decent enough form, so it's Accomplice for me.

I've very little between the other pair, so it's time for my first look at the market.

Accomplice is currently best priced at 4/1, which is a nice price, whilst Thrill Seeker is the 7/4 favourite (looks short) and Rogue Tide is also priced at 4/1. Ideally for the forecast, you'd want Rogue Tide as a runner-up, but I think all three will be pretty close at the finish. I'm fairly sure that one of these three win, but I do prefer Accomplice.

Racing Insights, 29th January 2021

No joy for those of us backing Aintree My Dream to make the frame at Fakenham this afternoon, I'm afraid.

Friday's feature of the day is the Horses for Courses report and the free races of the day are...

  • 1.25 Navan
  • 1.32 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 1.55 Navan
  • 7.00 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Wolverhampton

And I think the two UK A/W handicaps appeal to me most of those six, so it's off to Surrey for the 1.50 Lingfield...

Not much in the way of decent form of late, but Expert Opinion was a runner-up two starts ago, Hundon made the frame last time out whilst The Pretty Way has been placed twice already this year. She also tops the Geegeez Ratings on 58, with a bit of a gap back to both Kinderdijk and Swooper on 49. Shessweet and Expert Opinion are somewhat detached in the ratings on 18 and 16 respectively.

Half the field are dropping in class here : Expert Opinion, Swooper and Lucky Ava all ran at Class 5 last time out, whereas Shessweet was a Class 4 entrant nine weeks ago.

Expert Opinion made the frame once (two starts ago) from five efforts, but was a well beaten (8 lengths) seventh of eight in a Southwell maiden a fortnight ago and will need to improve to be involved here. On a positive note, his yard are 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) over the last fortnight, but top weight looks a stretch here, even with a 7lb claimer on board. Can't see this one making the frame.

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Kinderdijk features well on the Geegeez neural ratings but she's a four-race maiden whose best effort was a three length defeat at Newcastle two starts and two weeks ago. She's quickly turned back out just four days after being beaten by more than eight lengths off today's mark. The hood she wore (to little effect IMO) last time out is retained today. One positive note is the booking of Adam Kirby (9 from 47 = 19.1% SR at Class 6 here since the start of 2020) to take the ride, but I'd say at this stage I don't fancy her for the places.

Swooper hasn't made the frame in any of seven starts to date, but hinted at some ability when producing a career-best effort over this course and distance last time out. The results might say he was fifth at 33/1, but that only tells half a story. He was beaten by less than two lengths at a higher grade than this and now not only drops in class, but is lowered 3lbs by the assessor and another positive jockey booking in the shape of Tom Marquand who is 24 from 137 (17.5% SR) here since the start of 2019 and profitable to follow! Definite chance of a place here.

Lucky Ava A "neither here nor there"-type of maiden who was better than her 4th of 6 in handicap last time out would suggest. She was carried wide off the turn at Wolverhampton and everyone knows the usual outcome when that happens. To her credit, she plugged on and was only beaten by four lengths. Prior to that, she'd been third over the same 5f at Wolverhampton and only beaten by a neck and a nose. Down one class and one pound in the weights, she's one to consider for the frame.

Shessweet looks the worst on form/paper (and grass/sand etc for that matter). Seventh of eleven and beaten by five lengths on handicap debut is no disaster but last of 12 (bt by 15L) and last of 7 (bt by 17L) in two races since suggests she's not very good. Throw in an onut of form jockey and a trainer with a poor course record and you've one to swerve here.

Hundon wore cheekpieces for the first time last time out, resulting in his best effort to date, finishing 3rd of 10 on this track over 6 furlongs a weeks ago. He led until pretty much the 1f pole and now dropped in trip retaining the cheekpieces has to be in the mix late on again, especially off the same mark and with the yard being in good form.

Teddy B makes little appeal on a run of form reading 008987 and not beating many rivals since a runner-up in a 6f seller at Leicester back in September. Last seen just four days ago at Chelmsford when 7th of 11 and beaten by more than 8 lengths off today's mark. Cheekpieces will be applied here in an effort to get more from him, but I doubt they're going to have enough effect to make him competitive here.

The Pretty Way heads the field on form and the Geegeez ratings and looks a progressively mobile type. Two much improved runs already this month after coming back from a 20-week rest to finish third at Wolverhampton, beaten by a length and a quarter (the runner-up won on Tuesday) and then she was only beaten by a head very late on at Kempton over 6f last time out. She runs off effectively the same mark, but drops back in trip and at this point of my analysis looks very much the one to beat.

*

At this point, I normally move to Instant Expert to tally up the runners' wins and places against expected race conditions, but this field is 0 from 50 between them and have only made the frame on six combined occasions. Teddy B and The Pretty Way have placed twice, whilst Expert Opinion and Hundon have also been in the frame. The place element of IE shows some of this form...

The Pretty Way and Hundon would seem to be the two to take from this graphic and now to draw, pace and pace/draw combined, as they can make or break a horse's chances over this 5f trip at Lingfield and the ideal make-up seems to be low or mid drawn leaders followed by mid-drawn prominence as follows...

There's a clear 50/50 spilt there with low/mid-div, low prominent and high leaders also faring well, so let's overlay the past running styles of our eight runners to see who might be best suited or most inconvenienced...

And I think from that graphic, those in stalls 1 to 4 would seem to have the best of it. I'd expect Hundon to try and get out ahead of stalls 1-3, but I think Swooper might well race more prominently if jockey Tom Marquand sees the four inside of him making a break which would give us five (I don't like Expert Opinion even if he seems well drawn) contesting the race.

Kinderdijk is the weakest of the five and generally fails to find anything in the closing stages, so she's out at this stage, as is Swooper. I just think  that he'll have to do too much to keep in touch early on that he'll not have enough "kick" left when needed. I don't think he'll be far off the places, but he's not in my top three.

Summary

I'm now down to Hundon, Lucky Ava and The Pretty Way. I don't have much much separating Hundon and Lucky Ava, but the market disagrees pricing them at 7/2 and 11/2 respectively. If I was backing one of them, it'd have to be Lucky Ava because she represents far better value to me, but my actual preference for the race is The Pretty Way who looks over-priced at a readily available 9/2 unless I've got my working wrong.

So, it's The Pretty Way at 9/2 for me with Lucky Ava/Hundon hopefully making the frame : could be a tight one, good luck!

Racing Insights, 22nd January 2021

I seem to be backing more placers than winners right now with today's pick Rafiot also getting close but not close enough. That is probably the story of the race, if truth be told. I think he got going too late, had too much to do and could only finish third in the end.

No point crying over spilt milk, though, Friday is almost upon us and its feature of the day is the excellent Horses for Courses report, whilst day's free races are for...

  • 2.35 Lingfield
  • 4.00 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And although it only has five runners, one of those is on the Horses for Courses report in what looks a competitive Class 2 A/W (Polytrack) handicap over 6f, the 2.35 Lingfield...

...a race made even more interesting by the fact that the first four on the card raced against each other last time out. That was 16 days ago (Class 2, 6f) at Kempton where they were separated by just half a length...

...where Aberama Gold was best in at the weights and Brian The Snail technically worst off. If we stick with Brian The Snail for a moment, he carried 9st 2lbs as they all did and was rated 98, he goes off 98 again here and carries 9st 2lbs again and we can assess from there, based on what someone far wiser than me one told me : that a length over 6 furlongs is worth 2.5 to 2.8lbs

Above beat Brian by half a length, but is now carrying 2lbs more, so is technically at least 0.6lbs worse off (1.4lbs better for the half length, but carrying 2lbs more). Aberama was half a length behind Brian and now carries 5lbs more, whilst Streamline was a length behind and now carries a pound less.

So, based on rudimentary maths, Brian The Snail should technically beat Streamline by approximately a neck, Above by around a quarter length and Aberama Gold by a length and a half. But that's just theory based on last time out and weight and assumes they'll run the same way. It also doesn't take in to account  runner 5 Fizzy Feet, who just happens to be the horses for courses horse!

And so to the race itself. Aberama Gold was in great form prior to the Kempton defeat where we should remember that although he was 5th of 6 that day, he was only beaten by just over a length and a half and is a former course and distance winner here when visiting this track for the first time two starts ago when he actually beat Brian The Snail by half a length. This is a horse who won a Listed (Rockingham) race over 6f as a 2 yr old, so there's some ability there as seen in a career record of 6 wins from 20 including...

  • 5/18 under today's jockey & 5/17 over 6f
  • 4/6 at Class 2 & 2/3 on Standard A/W going
  • 2/2 going left handed & 1/1 here at Lingfield (over C&D 2LR)
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He's on a career high mark of 103 now but did win off 101 in that track/trip success here recently.

Above was the first of this quartet home last time out and was only caught and headed very late on, going down by half a length and it's now over 17 months since he last won a race, finishing 60223 since. That said, he was 6th of 6 and beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Listed race at Dundalk, 10th of 13 in a Group 3 at Ascot despite being off the track for 258 days, a runner-up beaten by three quarters of a length in a Listed race at Windsor and then two Class 2 places going down by a neck and then half a length LTO. So, he's better than his bare form line suggests and he now goes back to handicapping (2nd time ever) for the first time since that win six starts ago.

His rider and trainer are both in good form and his yard have done well here at Lingfield in the past. He hasn't raced here before but is 1162 on Std going and 1162 going left handed, so that's a positive. He hasn't won beyond Class 4 though and he does seem better over 7f rather than 6.

Brian The Snail is the one I based the weights around initially and as above, he was narrowly beaten over course and distance by Aberama Gold two starts ago as he came agonisingly close to landing a 60-day, 6f, A/W, handicap hat-trick. As well as beating Aberama off level weights LTO, he's 2 lbs better off for the rematch from two starts ago. His yard don't have the best record here at Lingfield if truth be told (just 11/167 = 6.6% SR in A/W hcps here since the start of 2016) and stat-wise, this horse is a bit of a mixed bag. He's 6 from 30 over 6 furlongs and has finished 11124 in his last five A/W handicaps, he's 4 from 1`2 under today's jockey and was a runner-up on his only previous run here. However, he's 1 from 26 at Class 2 and is a far better runner at Class 3.

Fizzy Feet is the one we've barely mentioned so far, but unsurprisingly (I suppose based on the other four runners) does have some collateral form to look at. He was last seen on Boxing Day in the same race that Above was a neck away from winning at Wolverhampton. Fizzy Feet was the last of six that day, some 8.5 lengths behind Above, but that was on Tapeta and this is Lingfield, where he's today's horses for courses horse! He's also well featured on the in-card stats as follows...

...which give us plenty of reasons to be interested here. Career-wise, he is...

  • 6 /24 going left handed & 6/20 on Std going
  • 6/18 within a month of his last run & 4/15 over 6f
  • 3/6 over course and distance but 0 from 4 at Class 2.

Like Brian above, he's a better horse at Class 3 and although his jockey is in good form right now, it'll be their first time together and I think I'd have preferred either of Hollie Doyle or Richard Kingscote to be on board as they're both 2 from 5 on this horse to date.

And that brings us to Streamline, last of the six home last time out in that 6f C2 event at Kempton, but only 2 lengths off the pace, which was some going to be fair as it had been 16 months since his last race, when he actually landed a Group 3 (Sirenia Stakes) contest over that Kempton track and trip and although the form of that race hasn't proved to be particularly strong (his rivals have 0 wins and just 5 places from 27 subsequent runs) you can only beat what's put in front of you.

He'd only raced three time prior to that win, landing two novice races at Classes 4 & 5 before going down by just a length in a 5f Listed sprint at York, so although lightly raced he probably took the best credentials into that race earlier this month, notwithstanding he needed the run.

I'd imagine that much of  what appears on Instant Expert will have been documented above, but just in case I missed anything, IE does give a far quicker overview of suitability...

...and the "stands out like a sore thumb" column is class 2, of course. Aberama Gold is the class specialist, but we should remember from above that Streamline has a win and a place from two Class 1 efforts.

The draw/pace/tactics of this race are likely to be the key to unravelling this tricky contest or at least I certainly hope they'll be helpful, starting wioth the draw, where stall 3 seems to be far more successful than the other four, so good news for Above...

...whilst if you're drawn high, you want to be leading and mid drawn horse need to be prominent or better...

and when we overlay our horses' running styles...

...none of them are massively inconvenienced if truth be told.

Summary

At the outset, this looked a compellingly competitive small field contest and I still see it just as that. I think you can make a case for all five to win here and the prudent option would be for me to say I've not really cracked this one and to leave it alone.

I could, however, see if I can find a reason not to back them? And from my analysis further up the page...

Aberama Gold : He's on a career high mark of 103
Above  : He hasn't won beyond Class 4 though and he does seem better over 7f rather than 6.
Brian The Snail : 1 from 26 at Class 2 and is a far better runner at Class 3.
Fizzy Feet : 0 from 4 at Class 2, no win in five, new jockey on board
Streamline : lightly raced, possible after-effects from a long lay-off and the form of his best run hasn't panned out.

For me, it's likely to be a no bet situation, but if I had to stick my neck out (I can almost hear you shouting at me to do so) after seeing the market, I'd have a marginal preference for Streamline at 10/3. If he runs to his ability, he's the best here. Whether he does or not is the bet.

 

Racing Insights, 21st January 2021

Wednesday's race went agonisingly the same way as Tuesday's. A runner suffering a narrow defeat after a three mile slog on heavy ground having been sent off much shorter than when I picked him out. Like Tuesday's pick, Le Tueur was far from disgraced by finishing a three-quarter length second to the horse I'd thought was the best in the race, especially as the third horse home was some 46 lengths further back.

I lost a couple of quid there, but certainly got my money's worth at 11/2 and now to Thursday, where Instant Expert is offered to all users for all races, including the "races of the day" which are...

  • 1.00 Lingfield
  • 3.40 Ludlow
  • 3.50 Wincanton
  • 7.00 Newcastle

And I'm going to use Instant Expert as a way in of looking at a horse that interests me in the opening race of the day. Rafiot is a 5 yr old gelding in decent form and will run in Thursday's 12.30 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W (Polytrack) handicap over 1m4f. The horse caught my eye on The Shortlist report, if truth be told, so I headed over to the racecard and looked at the Instant Expert tab...

...and thought that he was worth a second glance if nothing else. So that's what I'm going to do, starting with his entry on the racecard (and its associated angles) as follows...

So, two wins and a place from his last four efforts, he's the only course and distance winner in the field here, his yard is in good form and 7lb claimer Rhys Clutterbuck has a more than decent record when riding here for Gary Moore with an almost 1 in 3 record and making the frame more than half the time.

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To put that trainer/jockey combo into perspective, Rhys has a 10.9% career strike rate to date, but he is 13.5% here at Lingfield, 14.1% for Gary Moore and 17.2% for track/trainer.

Rafiot won here over course and distance last time out, five weeks ago, landing an apprentice handicap by half a length ahead of the re-opposing Bashful Boy. That margin of victory could be misleading and he was pulling clear at the finish and could well have won by further had he wanted/needed to, it was a smart piece of riding to be fair.

He's up just 3lbs for that win, but Rhys claims 7lbs here instead of the 3lbs allowed last time for the apprentice race, so we're effectively a pound lower coming here. Bashful Boy has since been beaten by eight lengths at this class/trip and now runs off a mark 3lbs higher than the contest here five weeks ago, so he has at least half a length and four pounds to find, which will be tough.

Further confidence comes from the third place horse that day, My Girl Maggie. She was 2.5 lengths behind Rafiot here, but is 2 from 2 since : winning a C5 1m4f handicap off the same mark as here and then she landed a C4 1m6f off 6lbs higher, so I'm hoping there's some validity to her form.

Rafiot's suitability for the task ahead is shown by Instant Expert above, the resultant form of the placers from LTO gives confidence and we've the trainer/jockey stats above, but what of the race itself?

Well, he's drawn in stall 1 and in 11-runner handicaps here in the past, that's an excellent place to be...

...and with a likely mid-division position, he should be well poised for a late push for the line...

The pace/draw overlay also suggests he's well drawn for his running style...

 

...with very few (if any) looking better suited. So as I've not found anything yet to suggest he isn't worth taking a chance on, let's have a closer look at his recent form. He has finished 1031 in his last four, the elephant in the room being a 12th of 12 finish at Goodwood.

I'm actually quite happy to ignore that run because that was the first run off his new mark of 69 (he'd gone up 4lbs that day), it was his first non-hurdles effort at Class 4 (the other three recent runs were all at Class 5, like this one) and it was his only career run on heavy ground to date, so there are some mitigating circumstances there.

He won a C5, 1m handicap at Goodwood and was then third here over track and trip prior to that course and distance success last time out.

Summary

Rafiot looks competitive on form, he was impressive last time out when given a good ride by Rhys Clutterbuck who retains the ride here and the yard are on top form. The jockey rides well for the trainer here and I'd be happy to back Rafiot if I can get 3/1 or (hopefully) bigger. he's currently 11/4 with Hills, the first to break cover, so there's a chance I might get on.

 

Racing Insights, 16th January 2021

As was pretty much expected, the even money favourite Star of St James prevailed at Southwell this afternoon/evening with my "biggest danger" the 13/2 overnight Native Silver finishing just a half length back as runner-up. Well done to those jumping on the forecast/exacta (the latter paid 5.2/1), but sadly my "E/W pick at a price" runner was withdrawn.

Saturday's free feature is the marvellous Trainer/Jockey Combo Report, which highlights successful partnerships whilst our free racecards for the following races are open to all readers...

  • 12.40 Warwick
  • 2.35 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Market Rasen
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 3.10 Lingfield

And the last of those five looks the most open/competitive, plus it's unlikely to be abandoned, so today's focus is on the 3.10 Lingfield...

The sharp eyed amongst you will notice I've already eliminated three runners who are greyed out at the bottom of the card. These look like no-hopers in dreadful form and shouldn't be ones to worry us. I've greyed them out for you, so you can see what happens when you click the X just before the course and distance win indicators. To put them back in the card, simply click the X again.

And so to the race itself after removing that trio, the remainder of the field all have at least decent run in the recent form, with Total Commitment, Recon Mission and Sun Power the ones to have won lately. Huraiz & Will To Win are both dropping down from Class 2, whilst Recon Mission and Count Otto both step up in class here.

All seven have won at this 6f trip with four also winning here at Lingfield in the past, of which two (Will To Win & Count Otto) have won over course and distance at the same time! None of them are being turned back out quickly, nor are any coming off long breaks, as all have had at least two weeks rest and 51  days being the longest absence.

Count Otto is the oldest here at 6, but the other half dozen are all 4 or 5, From a trainer perspective, Huraiz & Will To Win both hail from yards with good track records, whilst the former's trainer is in great form of late, as is his jockey and the partnership has worked well here at Lingfield in the past. Ratings-wise, they're a fairly well bunched group, but Will To Win is a little detached on 65, I suppose.

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Instant Expert is our next port of call, as that's the indicator of past performance under today's conditions. Obviously that's no guarantee of future success, but if a horse has gone well in the past over course and distance for example, there's a chance he/she will do so again at some point. Anyway, I'm waffling, so let's crack on...

...where we see that Will to Win & Sun Power have the best of the winning records on A/W and Count Otto looks to have struggled. No real standouts at Class 3, to be honest, but Top Breeze's 0/6 isn't good, nor I suppose is Count Otto's 3 from 18. Will To Win has 2 wins and a place from 4 on this track which is the best on offer, but don't be fooled by Total Commitment's 0 from 4 record. It looks poor but he has finished in the frame on all four occasions.

Plenty of wins at this trip across the board and Will To Win & Total Commitment have some place finishes to push their place records to 50% and beyond.

From a win perspective, Instant Expert shows Will To Win in a very good light and he has some positives from the racecard, but can he win from stall 9? It might be tough, as history suggests that in 99 previous similar races, stalls 8 to 10 are the worst place to be...

 

...but wherever you're drawn, you want to be up with the pace. So do we have any confirmed front runners? The pace tab knows the answer to that question...

...suggesting Sun Power and Recon Mission will attempt to set the pace with Top Breeze not very far behind and when we overlay the running styles with the general pace-draw heatmap from recent similar contests, we get the following...

...where I'd say Top Breeze has the best position. I expect he'll break smartly but won't be too upset if the other come past him early from wider draws.

At this stage, I'm going to discard Huraiz and Count Otto, neither have featured too positively so far and aren't in great form right now, but that still leaves me half of the field to pick from and to be honest, it's a tough call!

Will to Win is a former course and distance winner, his yard have a great record here and he's dropping in class to run off a very workable mark of 93. Conversely, he's not well drawn and isn't in any sort of form of late. Much will depend on which version of him turns up, very capable of making the frame at double digit odds, but others hold more appeal.

Top Breeze is 0 from 11 since winning here over 5f in a Class 2 contest at the end of February last year, but has shown some promising signs lately with five top-three finishes in his last seven races. He was 3.5 lengths behind Sun Power last time out, but with a 6lb pull in the weights here should be there or thereabouts. Aided by the rail, I expect him to go well just 1lb higher than that last win.

Total Commitment was one I initially liked and I still do, but stall 10 isn't going to do him any favours at all. He might have to go off a little quicker than usual to get involved, but if he can overcome the draw, he has plenty going for him, especially based on the Instant Expert numbers. He has raced more prominently recently when winning and then finishing as runner-up, so those tactics could help here.

Recon Mission broke a 13-race losing streak when winning here on New Year's Eve making all and holding on to win by three quarters of a length off a reduced mark of 84. He has obvious chances based on that form, but isn't a certainty to back it up. He's up in trip, class and weight here and the combination of the three might just prove too much. Definite chance, but I think others make more sense.

Sun Power was a winner at this class/trip at Wolverhampton at the end of last year, beating Top Breeze by 3.5 lengths in the process and therefore a repeat of that run puts him in the mix, but I have reservations. He's 2 from 3 at Wolverhampton, but 0 from 10 elsewhere and hasn't turned out to be the horse he was hoped to have been. Well beaten in seven Class 1&2 contests, he ended up at Class 4 to try and give him a spark. He's 6lbs worse off with Top Breeze here and that's possibly too much.

Summary

Five left in at this stage, Will To Win is unreliable and despite the possibility of a big run at a decent price, he's not for me today. Of the four remaining, any could win in fairness, but the way I've processed the race and analysed the runners, Top Breeze and Total Commitment appeal to me more than the other two.

Top Breeze is currently priced at 8/1 with Total Commitment half those odds at 4/1 and whilst I think Total Commitment will just shade it, he's not that much more likely to succeed in my eyes. I expected Top Breeze to be around 9/2, so 8/1 is excellent value and I was hoping for around 6/1 about Total Commitment, so 4's is a little skinny.

If I've got it right, there won't be much between them. TC is marginally better on my working, but TB is far better value. There's a case for backing either, none or both : the choice is yours! 😉

Racing Insights, 9th January 2021

Saturday's free feature is the marvellous Trainer/Jockey Combo report, whilst (weather permitting) we have half a dozen full free racecards open to non-Gold subscribers and they are...

  • 11.35 Fairyhouse
  • 12.58 Wincanton
  • 1.10 Kempton
  • 1.25 Chepstow
  • 1.45 Kempton
  • 3.25 Lingfield

And I think we'll have a look at the TJ Combo, based on course form over the last 12 months. My criteria are fairly demanding, but they have generated a couple of horses to consider for Saturday at Lingfield.

David Probert has two rides for Andrew Balding here, but Discomatic runs in a Novice Median Auction Stakes and they hold little/no interest to me, so I'm focusing on Horn of Plenty for the Balding/Probert angle here.

Horn of Plenty is a 4 yr old and will line up against eight rivals in a 1m4f, Class 4, Handicap for 4yo+ on standard to slow polytrack with the aim of bringing home a £5207 prize.

The combo is 5 from 18 here over the last 12 months as shown above and this includes...

  • 4/15 on the A/W, 4/12 were unplaced LTO & 3/8 in handicaps
  • 2/7 in January, 2/6 in races worth £4-8k & 2/5 at odds of 15/2 to 10/1
  • 1/6 with females, 1/2 at Class 4 and 0/2 with 4yr olds

The breakdown isn't totally positive, but it does offer some encouragement and the racecard entry looks like this...

That Geegeez Speed rating of 32 is unfortunately the lowest in the race and the other info we can instantly glean from the card is that this filly was sixth a month (31 days) ago, she has ran three times (inc 1 win) since a wind op, she has won at this trip before and she'll be carrying 9st 7lbs off a mark of 79 for a yard short of recent winners.

She has 1 win and 1 place from 4 starts on the A/W with her sole win coming over this 1m4f trip at Wolverhampton two starts ago in a Class 5 novice contest. She stepped up to Class 4 last time out and although beaten by almost eight lengths over 1m3.5f at Kempton, she did run better than the bare result might suggest. She was in touch and making good headway when denied a clear run, she had to change course and never really recovered. The third placed horse that day has reappeared and won since.

Recently stalls five and higher have been the place to be if you wanted to win a 9-runner 1m4f event here at Lingfield, not withstanding the anomaly of stall 8's poor figures and with stalls 6 and 7 making the frame most often, our girl's draw from box 6 might be a good one.

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Much will also depend on race tactics. Of those 71 races above prominent and held-up horses have won most of the time, but there's not a massive win % difference across all four run styles ie

and we can then also find that leaders from a middle draw fared best, followed by highly-drawn prominent runners tucked in behind them with third best going to high draws dropped in at the back...

...so we could really do with Horn of Plenty being a front runner, but that wouldn't appear to be the case and she was, in fact, held up last time out...

giving her the following heat map...

...which isn't ideal, if I'm honest, but more on her chances shortly, after I've looked at the other possible.

*

Seven pound claimer Rhys Clutterbuck is in the early days of his career and apart from his rides for Gary Moore here at Lingfield, he's just 9 from 109 (8.26% SR), but in contrast is 5 from 15 (33.3%) here for Mr Moore over the last year and now rides the 6 yr old mare, Agent of Fortune in a 13-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f.

The TJ combo record of 5 from 15 here over the last 12 months can be broken down in respect of today's contest as follows...

  • 5/15 in handicaps, 3/12 on the A/W, 3/5 at Class 5
  • 2/3 at 7-7.5f, 1/10 at odds bigger than 6/1, 1/9 on runners unplaced LTO
  • 1/4 on females, 1/1 on 6 yr olds and 0/1 in January

Class 5 handicaps are good from the above, but not much else to give us confidence other than possibly the trip, so let's look at Agent of Fortune's racecard entry...

So, with a non-runner, she'll be drawn in 9 of 13 and comes here in pretty poor form if truth be told, but it wasn't always that way. 13 months ago she embarked on a 10-race, 11-week, purple patch where she took her official mark from 50 to 81 (she goes off 72 here) by finishing 1114121113 and she's 3 from 8 at this track. She's been off the boil of late, though, finishing no better than seventh in any of her subsequent nine starts and her Geegeez Speed Rating of 48 is just 1pt higher than the two joint lowest scores in this race.

She actually scores quite favourably on Instant Expert...

...as she attempts to land a race where stalls 3 to 9 have seemed to fare best of late...

Our girl is drawn in 10 which will be 9, so that might work out. Once again pace and race positioning hold the key to this (and most) race and the pace/draw heat map...

...says the preferences are Low drawn leaders, mid drawn leaders and highly drawn prominence. This suggests that we'd need Agent of Fortune to race prominently to maximise her chances, but sadly she's a mid division type at best, as seen below...

...all of which is less ideal than the first horse we looked at.

Summary

I won't be backing either of these and I expect both to be much nearer the back than the front at the end of the race, so I won't bother with doing a deeper analysis of each horse, but this hasn't been a waste of my time and I hope you don't feel you've wasted yours by reading this piece.

The takeway from this is that it's very easy to read online or in a paper or to hear from a friend about how well jockey x rides for trainer y at track z and they've only got one runner there tomorrow, so they can't be going there for nothing, can they? Well, if I had a pound for every time I'd heard similar, I wouldn't need to back horses!

What we do here at Geegeez is give you that bottom line stat as a starting point, not a direction to bet. We give you the tools highlighted above plus the full race form and profiler etc and advise you to pick the stat apart. If the stat still stands up, great, you might still have the chance of a bet, but quite often it's like today and the stat is just another piece of data to file away in your mind for another day.

There's nothing wrong with analysing a race and then walking away from it. We want everyone to get that same mindset to just have a bet when there's one there to be had. Theres' none for me here, so I'll sign off by wishing you a great weekend and I'll be back on Sunday evening.

 

Racing Insights, 2nd December 2020

Tuesday's race ended up being too competitive for my liking and I signed off without putting my neck on the block, which is perfectly acceptable. Nobody should be betting for the sake of it, if there's nothing there - walk away. What it did highlight was the need for shortlisting. I discarded half of the 12-runner field, confident that the winner was in my final six. That six contained the first three home and four of the six to actually finish the race. It was a no bet from me, but some sort of moral victory, I suppose.

And now to Wednesday, where "Feature of the Day" is the excellent Trainer Stats report, whilst our "Races of the Day" are...

  • 1.40 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Haydock
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 5.15 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Kempton

And I think I'll take a break from full race profiling today to turn my attention towards the Trainer Stats report. I've selected the course one-year handicap form and I've asked for decent win and place percentages, profit at both win & E/W bets plus fairly demanding A/E and IV figures. Three trainers fit the bill, two at Kempton and one, John Ryan, at Lingfield.

Some of you might remember that I didn't fancy John Ryan's Pistoletto for Saturday's piece (see here) as the yard was 0/24 over the previous five weeks, but that one ran better than expected in a 1.5 length defeat and since then, the Ryan horses are two from four, so his string might just be coming into a bit of form.

His 1-year Lingfield handicap record is shown below, along with his two runners...

His two runners here go in the 2.10 Lingfield, a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack, where the gelding Arthur's Angel will be looking to scoop the £2,782, whilst the 3.20 Lingfield is a 6-runner, Class 4 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m where the 8yr old gelding Battle of Marathon competes for £5,208.

Of John's 5/20 record here over the last year, he is...

  • 3 from 5 in fields of 5-6 runners, 5 from 11 with 5-10 runners, but 0/3 in 10-runner contests
  • 2 from 4 at Class 4, but 0 from 5 at Class 6
  • 4 from 8 with 8 yr olds, but hasn't ran a 2yo here in the last year
  • 0 from 3 over 7f and no runners at 2m
  • 4 from 9 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 15 using jockey Darragh Keenan
  • 3 from 6 with horses who ran 5 to 10 days earlier
  • 3 from 8 from runners placed LTO and 1 from 4 with LTO winners...

...and now to the races, starting with Arthur's Angel in the 2.10 Lingfield...

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...where Arthur's Angel brings the best form to the table having gone down by less than a length at Wolverhampton in mid-November before winning by a length and a half at Chelmsford five days ago. The cheekpieces will be on again, as they allied to a drop to 7f seem to have worked of late, whilst jockey Darragh Keenan's 3lb claim negates half of the penalty for last week's win and Darragh is riding well again right now with three wins and three further places from his last ten rides.

Our runner is well positioned on the Geegeez ratings in third spot although several rivals have yet to prove themselves. Pre-jockey claims, he is joint top weight, but that's not a problem in my eyes, as since the start of 2017 top/joint top rated runners in Lingfield A/W nurseries are 14 from 50 (28% SR & 1.32 A/E), producing 25.5pts profit at Industry SP at an ROI of 51% and who backs at ISP? Incidentally of that 14/50 record, LTO winners are 5 from 13 (38.5%).

A look at Instant Expert shows him in a pretty good light from both a win and place perspective, despite only having a total of five previous starts...

He's 1 from 5 so far ,but 1 win and 1 place from 3 on the A/W in a field of runners that aside from him are 1 from 46! Pace and draw are always important, so let's see how he stacks up here drawn in 9...

To be honest, when the winners come from stalls 6, 9, 5, 3, 4, 7, 2, 8, 1, 10, you have to say that 10-runner contests here haven't shown any real draw bias with all 10 stalls winning at least 10 of the 128 races, but in our favour is the fact that stall 9 is the second highest figure. If pushed to suggest the best draw, you'd probably want to be in the 3 to 6 zone based on the data above.

But what about pace? Well, I do know that this runner is generally held up and the pace draw heatmap isn't favourable...

...but we all know the danger of taking any single stat/piece of data in isolation, don't we? This is the first negative we've found about this runner and if we look closer at the figures that produce the heat map...

...we see that hold-up horses have won 15 of the 64 races (23.4%), which isn't disastrous and he did win with these tactics last time out. I expect he'll be a short price, but we'll check that in the summary shortly, as I now need to look at Battle of Marathon in the 3.20 Lingfield...

Another last time out winner, having scored at Chelmsford six days ago in a higher grade, yet only raised 2lbs here. He's a former course winner and depending on how you view the numbers, he is joint third on the Geegeez ratings or he's joint second worst!

He has certainly been around the block a few times as this will be his 66th start. Eight wins from the previous sixty-five is a reasonable 12.3% strike rate, but that becomes 5 from 31 (16.1%) on the A/W, where he has 5 wins (22.7% SR) and 5 further places from 22 handicap runs on standard going and those 22 include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 14 on Polytrack
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 13 under Darragh Keenan
  • 4 wins and a place from 11 as an 8 yr old
  • 4 wins and a place from 11 in fields of 1-7 runners
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 here at Lingfield
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 4 and has won at Class 2
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 6 within a week of his last run
  • a placed finish from a sole run at 2m0.5f, but he has won at 1m6f before

Of course, much of the above is covered by Instant Expert (profiler tab will show you the rest)...

Not much green to show, but to have so much amber from a large number of runs is pretty good going. Like his stablemate who we looked at earlier, he has a high draw and tends to be held up, so we need to check pace and first draw to see if that will adversely affect his chances...

...and this suggests that stall 6 isn't a bad place to be. To be honest, I personally feel that we can get a bit too hung up on the draw and I believe that over a two mile trip, being drawn 20 feet away from the rail isn't going to make much difference, whereas the racing style might...

Hold-up horses have won 9 of 23 (39.1%) of similar contests and so I'd expect Battle of Marathon to virtually amble across to the rail to sit at the back of the pack after stalls 4 & 5 take off to hit the front. There's a danger that the 11/10 favourite gets embroiled in a tussle for the lead, making himself vulnerable late on.

Summary

Lots to like about both John Ryan runners on Wednesday and at 5/2 and 3/1 respectively, I'm happy to back both of Arthur's Angel and Battle of Marathon.

Racing Insights, 25th November 2020

Tuesday's race is yet to come, so we switch focus to Wednesday, where the free feature is the excellent Trainer Stats report and we've the following handful of complete racecards/data available to all...

  • 12.15 Wetherby
  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 1.00 Lingfield
  • 1.10 Hereford
  • 3.20 Hereford

And although the Trainer Stats report is wonderful, I think I'll cast my eye over the first of the two offerings from "Leafy", although I suspect it doesn't fir that description right now for the 12.30 Lingfield : a competitive-looking, 6-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £7,439 to the winner.

As ever we'll start with the racecard in Geegeez Speed Rating Order...

Plantadream comes here in decent nick having placed three times (inc one win) from his last four outings. He's a former course winner who drops in class today, he tops our ratings and his jockey Jamie Spencer is 23/111 (20.7% SR) here since the start of 2016 as hinted at by the C5 icon.

Fantasy Believer steps up in class after winning last time out a fortnight ago and hails from an in-form yard with a good short and long term record at this venue (14 C1 C5). Second on our ratings.

Sha La La La Lee has made the frame in each of his last two starts at Wolverhampton, winning once and going down by a length and a quarter 12 days ago. His usual cheekpieces will be in place and he also steps up in class. His yard have a good long term record here, but are 0 from 17 on this track since Kachy's win in April 2019. That said, this horse did also win here that month.

Kryptos is in good form (231 last three) and won under today's jockey on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton last time out and that jockey, the versatile Megan Nicholls is absolutely flying right now with a form line of 1191271 including wins at such diverse distances as 6f and 2m1f plus others in between!

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Yes My Boy is the only colt in the race and is a consistent sort as seen by his run of results which include finishes of 113 on the A/W, the middle race of which was a course and distance success on his only previous visit to this track. He keeps the cheekpieces on and in Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle, he is supported by a formidable trainer/jockey partnership, both of whom have good individual and combined records at this venue.

And finally, Pactolus, who looks to have struggled for form in a higher grade, hence the drop in class here. He is, however, a former course and distance winner and his jockey Andrea Atzeni is is fine fettle right now and also has done here at Lingfield, both short and long-term. Unfortunately the same can't be said for his trainer Stuart Williams who is 1 from 34 here over the past 20 months with his last 25 runners here all getting beat. Even more disheartening is that Pactolus accounts for 6 of the 33 defeats and he's bottom of our ratings.

Based purely on the above, I'm now going to disregard the claims of Pactolus ahead of my look at the Instant Expert tab...

...which tells me that from a place perspective, all of them look well suited in at least two categories, especially at this Class 3 level. There is, however, a clear failure to convert many of the place runs into wins, but one of them will do just that here. Plantadream has failed to win on standard going (but is 2/2 on std-slow) and is now rated some 15lbs higher than his last A/W win and 8lbs higher than his last win overall, whilst Kryptos hasn't managed to win at this trip but did win over 9.6f on A/W debut last time out.

Yes My Boy lets himself down by not converting any of his five Class 3 runs into wins, finishing 22443, whilst Fantasy Believer's line of red on the win section now removes him from my consideration. Sha La La La Lee's figures on standard going are excellent, but 1 win from 11 at Class 3 is worrying and leaves him as borderline entering the final data stage where we analyse pace and draw...

In 95 6-runner contests here, runners in stalls 1 & 2 have won 30.5% of the races with stalls 3 & 4 winning 34.7% and 5 & 6 taking the remaining 35.8%. This says there's not a great deal in the draw, although the numbers are marginally better from the high draw. On a stall by stall basis, I wouldn't personally read too much into it as there's no logic (in my mind) why stall 5 would be so much lower than 4 or 6.

What this does do is remind us that a single stat in isolation can be misleading! Perhaps the pace data will be more revealing/helpful...

And this basically says you want to be up front in possible. If you've a low draw and don't want to or can't lead, then mid division is the best position, whilst higher drawn runners do need to prominent. Let's see how this fits in with our runners' usual MO via the unique Geegeez pace/draw/running styles heatmap...

...from which I expect Yes My Boy to get out quickly from stall 2, grab the rail (Fantasy Believer is in box 1 and doesn't start quickly) and try to make all. Kryptos is drawn widest of the 6 and can basically run his own race from there.

The interesting one there is Plantadream, who would also be ideally drawn if held back slightly more than usual. That's interesting to me, because the above data doesn't account for the jockeys and Jamie Spencer is well known for winning races from the rear and his two previous rides on this horse came in September this year. They won together at Ascot and the report read "...held up in last pair, good headway outside of group over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out..." and then they were runners-up at Goodwood 19 days later when "...last to break, held up in last, switched left over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, went 2nd towards finish..." I don't know what tactics will be used here, but I'd very surprised if he wasn't dropped in at the back again here.

Plantadream is the best horse in the race as far as I'm concerned, but at odds shorter than 2/1 off a mark as high as 96 isn't straightforward to me as a betting prospect, especially as he'll be playing catch up. I then have little to choose between Kryptos and Yes My Boy based on the above data, so I need more information about them and fortuitously they met each other nine days ago when Kryptos landed the spoils at 14/1 with Yes My Boy sent off at 7/2 and finishing third, 0.75 lengths back. Yes My Boy is now effectively 8lbs better here and with less than a length to make up on quicker ground he gets the nod.

Summary

On paper, it's a win for Plantadream, but he's currently as low as 6/4 here and carrying top weight trying to win from the back doesn't fill me with confidence. I've got a sneaking suspicion that Yes My Boy (currently 4/1) might just have enough about him to hold on. I might have it the wrong way around in the end but it's Yes My Boy ahead of Plantadream for me with the 11/2 Kryptos not far away.

 

Racing Insights, 10th November 2020

My shortlist of three for Monday's race included the winner and the runner-up separated by a nose with the gallant Younevercall getting collared on the line having made a mess of the penultimate hurdle. On now to Tuesday, where the feature of the day is the Shortlist report, whilst our free cards are for...

  • 12.45 Huntingdon
  • 2.00 Fairyhouse
  • 3.07 Hereford
  • 3.30 Fairyhouse
  • 3.58 Lingfield

To be honest, there's nothing there that I want to tackle (an Irish bumper and races with 14, 5, 3 or 2 runners, where the 5-runner one might have been OK but for the possibility of a very short fav), so it's off to the Shortlist we go...

...and whilst it's not as busy or clear cut as it often is, the fact that two of the qualifiers go in the same race leads me to see which of the two (if any) is the most likely to land the 3.23 Lingfield : a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £5,913 to the winner and whose racecard looks like this...

There's little to separate our two possibles (Closing Ceremony & Getaround) on the Geegeez ratings and both find themselves at the wrong end of that scale with figures of 86.1 and 86.9 on my standardised ratings (as I said yesterday, that's basing the top ranked at 100).

Getaround is clearly in the better form of the two and drops two classes for this handicap debut (HC1). Not much to say about the trainers other than there's a suggestion that Emma Lavelle (Closing Ceremony) might not be on top form right now (14) but she does have a good record at this venue (C5) over the years, whilst both jockeys are 3lb claimers up against some top riders and Bryan Carver has struggled over the last fortnight (14).

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The shortlist snippet for these two runners looked like this...

and we can add some numerical flesh to those barebones by clicking the Instant Expert tab...

...and just as Closing Ceremony appealed marginally more on the Shortlist, the same is true on Instant Expert, where there's not really enough information surrounding Getaround, but we'll look at that shortly, too! The last thing I want to look at before assessing the horses and telling what I think of them, is the pace tab, of course (I'm nothing if not methodical!), which looks like this...

...which suggests that Getaround's penchant for leading might enable him to dictate affairs from the front, whilst at the bottom of he graphic, the hold up tactics of Robin Gold might also be interesting.

And so, to the horses themselves, starting with Closing Ceremony : who at 11 is no spring chicken and is at least 3 yrs older than the rest of the field. He's lightly raced (19 so far) for his age and was a winner four starts ago, albeit almost 22 months ago. Five hurdle wins to date (from seventeen attempts) on ground rated good to soft all the way through to heavy. No run in the last 8 months and only 3 in the last 22 months since his last win.

Nothing to write home about in those three runs either, 12th of 18 was followed by him pulling up twice and I think this might be his last chance.

His figures are pretty good with 5 wins from 17 over hurdles, including 4 from 16 going left handed, 4 from 7 at Class 3, 4 from 7 off a mark of 123-128 (goes off 127 today, but has won off 138!), 3 from 10 on soft ground and 3 from 5 in 5-7 runner contests.

He's actually 0 from 2 at this 2m7f trip, but is 5 from 9 at 3m/3m0.5f, so the trip wouldn't be the reason for a defeat, neither would the going. He has a good record on soft (as above) and since the start of 2017, his trainer, Emma Lavelle's hurdlers sent off at Evens to 14/1 (we'll be the top end here, I think) on soft ground are 16 from 73 (21.9% SR) for SP profits of 17.4pts (23.8% ROI & A/E of 1.20)

It's the layoff and inability to see races out that are the bigger issues here.

Now, a look at Getaround : a 5 yr old gelding with just six runs under his belt including a win and a place from three bumper starts followed by a 2 from 2 record (inc one at 2m7.5f record in Class 4 Novice Hurdles. His sixth and final effort was a month ago at Chepstow when he was fourth in a Grade 2 contest over an inadequate 2m3.5f, where he went well for a long time before being run out of it as the pace quickened.

So, three wins from six so far, including 3 from 5 under today's jockey, 3 from 5 in fields of 4-7 runners, 3 from 5 wearing a tongue tie, 2 from 2 beyond 2,5 miles (inc that win over slightly further than today) and he's 1 from 1 on soft ground, but has also won on heavy.

The Grade 2 was probably beyond him, based on both class and trip and whilst this is still one grade higher than his two novice hurdle successes, he did win by fourteen lengths on soft ground at Exeter over 2m7.5f, making all and pulling clear three out and I'd not be surprised to see a similar tactic here. He does, of course, have more weight to carry here, but he looked to have plenty in reserve during that win. The third placed horse that day, Young Buck, has since reappeared to win for Paul Nicholls in the last three weeks.

Summary

The bare data/stats suggest conditions look ideal for both runners from the Shortlist, but the truth is that one of these is just starting and one career is coming to a close. I get plenty of things wrong, but I just can't see Closing Ceremony getting involved here. I'll be surprised if he completes the race and if he does, he'll be much closer to the back than the front.

Getaround, on the other hand, I do like here. He's got everything going for him, bar his no-name jockey being out of form. Yet that jockey takes a valuable 3lbs off the top weight and he certainly knows how to get a tune out of this horse. The boy is running consistently well and a repeat of any of his three outings should be enough to land this.

He could very well try and win it from the front and put the race to bed from a distance out. If he's unable to do that, then there are very real challenges on the horizon from the likes of As I See It and others. That said, Getaround would be my preferred option here and 3/1 or better might not be a bad price once the markets fully form.

Racing Insights, 29th October 2020

Wednesday was another good day for trainer Neil Mulholland at Fakenham with a 10/1 winner and a fourth place (Sky amongst others paid four places) from his two runners. I'm pleased to have highlighted that he'd two chances, but I have to admit to getting them the wrong way round.

Next up is Thursday, where Instant Expert is the free feature and our free races are...

  • 3.15 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Clonmel
  • 3.45 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Clonmel
  • 3.58 Newton Abbot
  • 7.45 Southwell

...and I've decided to take a look at three horses who stand out on our Shortlist report...

...and therefore by definition also score well on Instant Expert, starting with Fanzio in the 2.06 Stratford, an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft (Gd to Soft in places) ground. The winner will get £7,018 and Instant Expert tells us this...

He has won four races from fourteen so far, including 4 from 12 under today's jockey, 3 from 9 going left handed, 3 from 7 when not wearing his hood, 2 from 5 on Good to Soft, 2 from 5 with a tongue tie and 2 from 2 at 2m3½f - 2m4f.

He was a winner at this grade over 2m4f on good to soft at Uttoxeter two starts ago off a mark of 122, but struggled next/last time out off today's mark of 127, but in his defence he was upped in trip to 2m6f and good ground is probably too quick for him. Conditions are more in his favour today, although he is still 5lbs higher than that last win.

He likes to race prominently and that's a tactic that works well in this type of race and he's one of the ones likeliest to set the fractions here, as shown by the pace tab...

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...he's unlikely to have it all his own way, of course, but if he gets out and stays out and runs like I know he can under these conditions, he could go well again.

The next of our trio of possibles, Oh This Is Us goes in the 2.15 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 2, A/W handicap Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth a useful £11,972 to the winner and where this is the view from Instant Expert... 

Plenty of green once again and whilst the distance tab is amber, 6 wins and 4 places from 21 efforts over 7f isn't bad at all, effectively putting him one win away from a whole bank of green and if you add in a 2 from 2 record at 7.5f, he then has a 34.8% strike rate at 7/7.5f.

Overall, he is 13 from 57 and that includes 10 from 22 when sent off in the 13/8 to 6/1 range suggesting the market will be a good barometer for us and he's 9 from 24 going left handed, 4 from 13 on A/W, 4 from 8 on Poly, 3 from 4 carrying 9st 10lbs and has won teo Listed contests, so this shouldn't be beyond him.

He comes here off the back of another Class 2 A/W hcp success on Polytrack (Chelmsford, 39 days ago) and he's up 4lbs to a mark of 105 for that success, but he did actually win here at Lingfield over a mile last year off a mark of 113.

Stalls 5 to 9 look like the best place to be in a 9-runner, 7f contest here and it pays to lead. We've a good draw in 7, but mid-division is his running style and that might not be a negative as such, because the pace heat map...

...suggests nobody wants to lead and it might become a falsely run contest. What pace there is, should all be on the inside fo him, so he should be able to see where he needs to be, if nothing else. He is usually ridden by Tom Marquand or Pat Dobbs, but Ryan Moore (no slouch) takes the ride today and that, too, isn't a negative if you consider that the Geegeez Query Tool tells me that...

...which gives rise to some optimism. Our third and final horse under the microscope takes us back to Stratford for the 1.06 race, where Earth Moor will contest a a tricky looking 7-runner Class 4 Beginners Chase over 2m5f for 4yo+ on Soft (Gd to Soft in places) ground in a bid to win £4,289. Once again, we head straight to Instant Expert, which shows us...

He was a progressive type up to his last outing in March. It took him four bumpers to get off the mark but then won three from five over hurdles plus a runner-up finish.  Of those five runs, he had two wins and a runner-up finish at Class 3 with a 1 from 1 record at this Class 4 level, he was 3 from 3 under today's jockey Richard Johnson and he finished 121 in three soft ground runs.

He's trainer Philip Hobbs' only runner at this meeting and since 2015, when sending just one runner to a meeting, he is 69 from 254 (27.2%) when calling on Richard Johnson to ride, including 6 from 18 (33.3%) here at Stratford.

As for this type of contest, it pays to be up with the pace, but it all looks pretty even to me...

...which might mean it comes down to tactical nous and Tricky Dicky has plenty in his locker, you'd hope. For his own part, the horse is used to wining and did it quite comfortably when last seen. Clear from a good way out, he stayed on well to win by 6.5 lengths and the runner-up reappeared three weeks ago to win a Class 2 contest at Fontwell, whilst the 7th placed horse (40 lengths back) has also won since at Ffos Las on their predictably testing ground.

Summary

Surprisingly for this column, all three horses assessed have real chances here. from a win perspective, Oh This Is Us must be the best chance and 9/2 or even 5/1 as currently available looks fair. The other two runners will need to go well to make the frame, but there's no reason for that not to happen.

Fanzio is currently priced at 12/1 and I was rather hoping he'd be available at 16's or bigger, so I'm going to leave him alone, despite his obvious chances of a place. My odds requirements are because he's on a high mark and the presence of Templehills might stop him from bossing the race early on. Still has chances, but not for me at 12's.

Earth Moor is a tricky one, as he could win, but I doubt that would happen and a 7-runner field means we only get two places for an E/W bet. He makes a chasing debut after an absence of 238 days and he might be too rusty on a day where he's going to have to jump really well. I had him at 3rd or 4th best here and expecting around 6/1 about him, so was surprised to see him available at 8/1 with Bet365, which could offer some value. Not a likely winner, but could grab second if things fall his way.

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.05 Musselburgh : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders until halfway, close up, ridden over 3f out, kept on same pace) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Escalade @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, the racecard has lots of indicators for us...

Starting with a 3 yr old (obviously) filly in decent enough nick, finishing in the frame in all three starts this season (all at this trip, twice at this level but also once at class 3). She has one win from six so far, also at this grade and ridden by today's jockey, also on a left handed track.

Our trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, has 14, 30 and C5 next to his name, suggesting his horses are running well right now and have also fared well at this venue in the past, whilst jockey Ryan Tate's 30 shows he has been amongst the winners too and then the subsequent trainer jockey combo stats show a prolonged period of success, all of which gives me a good feeling of at least getting a run for my money.

The above strike rates (20%+), A/E figures (1.25+) and IV score (1.50+) are all very impressive and when creating angles to follow, those are my own personal starting points. In fact with IV scores all north of 2.0 and plenty of profit, these are really good numbers, but you can see that for yourself.

So, what can I add that you might not already know?

Well, I believe that 1m4f is a bit of a specialist trip and since the start of 2017 at odds ranging from 7/4 to 15/2, our trainer's runners are 11 from 45 (24.4% SR) for 17.3pts (+38.4% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 18.8pts (+56.9%) during June to September
  • 9/31 (29%) for 18.1pts (+58.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 6.6pts (+34.7%) at Class 5
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 4.23pts (+24.9%) at 6-20 dslr
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.8pts (+85.3%) with females...

...whilst in sub-£4k races during June-Sept, they are 9 from 23 (39.1% SR) for 26.1pts (+113.6% ROI), including 4/11 (36.4%) at C5, 4/10 (40%) at 6-20 dslr and 3/8 (37.5%) with females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Escalade @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

5.30 Southwell : Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led until 4th, chased leader, jumped slowly 7th, left in lead next, pushed along before 3 out, ridden and headed before 3 out, lost 2nd next, weakened soon after) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Alezan @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with a plethora of supporting evidence from the racecard, pace/draw heatmap and the Geegeez Speed Ratings...

...to which we can add a 3yr old filly who won last time out 14 days ago at this grade, at this trip and under today's jockey, 5lb claimer Georgia Dobie whose last ride (3 days ago) was also a winning one for today's trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, who herself has a good record at this venue of late, standing at...

in handicaps on the A/W at Lingfield since the start of 2017, including of relevance today...

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 56.35pts (+122.5%) within 120 days of their last run
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 66.35pts (+184.3%) ran on the A/W LTO
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 28.39pts (+83.5%) were sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 29.18pts (+76.8%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 49.16pts (+163.9%) in fields of 10-12 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 32.92pts (+121.9%) over this 1m C&D
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.19pts (+73.3%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 4/20 (20%) for 4.08pts (+20.4%) at Class 6
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.08pts (+60.6%) off a mark (OR) of 56-65
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.4pts (+120%) from LTO winners...

...and whilst trying not to dilute the sample size too much to make it more chance than relevance, you could combine the top three stats above, as those sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 4 months of a run of the A/W LTO are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 38.4pts (+160% ROI), a nice little trainer/course angle to file away and also includes the following at play today...

  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 30.3pts (+189.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 29.9pts (+271.5%) over this 1m C&D
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.1pts (+111.9%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.09pts (+145%) at the same class & trip as LTO
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 23pts (+255.8%) over this 1m C&D at the same class as LTO
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 23.3pts (+291.8%) at the same 1m trip as LTO
  • with 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.1pts (+257.9%) over this 1m C&D at the same class & trip as LTO...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Alezan @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05 am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!