Posts

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.00 Newmarket : Matewan @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, driven to lead narrowly inside final furlong, headed final strides and beaten in a photo by a short head)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As we generally do, our first port of the call is the Geegeez racecard, which tells us so much about a runner without changing pages or looking things up.

We see that we've got a 5yr old in excellent form including a win last time out 15 days ago. He hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C1, C5) and will be ridden by a jockey in good form (14) who has also done well at this venue (C1, C5).

Tabaahy also featured three times on my angles report (hence the 3) and I've opened them up for you to see that my report parameters specify a high A/E and an even higher IV figure allied to a strike rate of at least 20%.

Those details plus the jockey & trainer stats are pretty self explanatory and could be enough to form the basis of a bet, but let's take a closer look at the living elements at play today.

The horse has four wins and two places from just eight runs on the All-Weather, including of relevance today...

  • 3w, 2pl from 7 handicaps
  • 3w, 2pl from 6 at 5yrs old
  • 3w, 2pl from 6 at 5f
  • 3w, 1pl from 6 at Class 5
  • 3w, 1pl from 5 left-handed
  • 3w, 1pl from 4 sub-6/1 runs
  • 3w, 1pl from 4 in fields of fewer than 9 runners
  • and 2w, 1pl from 3 off a mark (OR) in the 70's

And next up is the jockey Adam McNamara, whose 12-month record at Lingfield is no flash in the pan, as shown by his record over the past near-30 months...

And of those 39 rides, Adam is...

  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 23.03pts (+82.2%) at evens to 10/1
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 33.25pts (+107.3%) at Class 5/6
  • 7/25 (28%) for 47.68pts (+190.7%) on male runners
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 31.42pts (+165.4%) on those rested for 6-20 days
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 48.34pts (+345.3%) on 4/5 yr olds
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 42.3pts (+846%) in fields of 7 or fewer runners

...whilst he is 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 18.91pts (+157.6% ROI)) on Class 5/6 males sent off at Evens to 10/1.

And finally to the trainer, David O'Meara, whose numbers on the A/W here at Lingfield since the start of 2019 currently stand at...

Again we have excellent strike rate, profit/ROI and A/E figures and a dig down into those 54 runners show that David's charges are...

  • 13/39 (33.3%) for 50.2pts (+128.7%) at odds of Evens to 8/1
  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 38.97pts (+84.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 50.14pts (+218%) over 5/6 furlongs
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 25.14pts (+132.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 6/20 (30%) for 23.82pts (+119.1%) with those last raced 11-20 days earlier
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.77pts (+144.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.71pts (+130.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.66pts (+141.4%) over this 5f course and distance...

...whilst in handicaps over 5/6 furlongs at Evens to 8/1, they are 9 from 16 (56.25% SR) for 57.13pts (+357.1% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Coral at 8.10am Friday (and still available an hour later), but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.20 Wolverhampton : Bavardages @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Raced wide prominent, led 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, edged left towards finish and beaten by a neck) : I'd say he was forced left rather than him edging over, but the neck margin of defeat wasn't as close as it seems.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Almqvist @ 11/4 non-BOG or 5/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the entry in the racecard...

...which tells us instantly that both trainer and jockey have decent records at the track (green C5 icon), so I won't labour those individual points today and move straight on the horse itself, a 3 yr old Colt who was a course and distance winner under today's jockey when last seen 90 days ago. This makes him another qualifier for this angle I used yesterday that almost bagged us another winner...

...yesterday's losing selection hasn't been added to the stats just yet, but that doesn't alter the numbers too much and of those 52 (now 53, of course!) qualifiers...

  • those competing for less than £8k are 18/43 (41.9%) for 42.1pts (+98%)
  • on Polytrack : 12/27 (44.4%) for 24.1pts (+89.1%)
  • ridden by Joe Fanning : 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.3pts (+62.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/17 (47.1%) for 21.75pts (+128%)
  • here at Lingfield : 8/13 (61.5%) for 22.9pts (+176%)
  • LTO Winners are 6/10 960%) for 15.03pts (+150.3%)
  • and those coming back from 60-90 days off track are 4 from 8 (50%) for 11.5pts (+143.6%)

I wasn't surprised to see good numbers above for the jockey and track filters, because according to a simple angle I have stored in my Geegeez Query Tool...

this has happened...

and the above impressive 81% ROI at SP (which nobody should be using) is transformed to a brilliant 107.8% at Betfair SP! And of these 71 qualifiers from a really simple angle...

  • male runners are 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.4pts (+100.8%)
  • those racing in fields of 7-9 runners are 12/31 (38.7%) for 68.8pts (+222.1%)
  • those competing for prizes less than £4k are 10/34 (29.4%) for 48.8pts (+143.5%)
  • whilst Class 5 runners are 7/21 (33.3%) for 32.3pts (+153.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Almqvist @ 11/4 non-BOG or 5/2 BOG as was offered generally at 8.10am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.05 Newcastle : Buniann @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, driven and effort over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on but failed narrowly) A nice run, but he just couldn't get his head in front. Smashed the SP up, though.

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Corvair @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...

Why?...

Like yesterday's possibly unlucky runner, I'll break today's analysis down into horse, trainer and jockey. I don't always do it this way, I do often mix it up with some less than obvious angles!

But let's start with the horse himself, a 3 yr old Colt making his sixth start after finishing 22111 in his previous runs, all on the All-Weather, including of particular interest today...

  • 3 wins and a place from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over 7 furlongs
  • 2 from 2 as a 3 yr old
  • 2 from 2 in handicaps
  • 2 from 2 here at Lingfield
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

All of which makes me happy enough to move on to our trainer, Simon Crisford (now sharing his licence with son Ed) whose horses I keep an eye out for in handicaps on the Polytrack here at Lingfield, especially those at the sharp end of the market, as at odds shorter than 5/1, they are 19 from 50 (38% SR) for 19.3pts (+38.6% ROI), with the following filters of relevance today...

  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+117.7%) after April each year
  • 13/29 (44.8%) for 18.2pts (+62.6%) with male runners
  • 10/27 (37%) for 14.3pts (+52.9%) in handicaps
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 10.5pts (+40.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.3pts (+118.5%) with LTO winners
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.27pts (+25.3%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 3.79pts (+63.2%) with runners rested for 3-6 months

The Crisford sub-5/1 male handicappers are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 18.8pts (+313.3% ROI) during May to December, including 3 from 4 (75%) for 11.28pts (+282.1%) as 3 yr olds.

Corvair is Simon (& Ed's, of course) sole runner at this venue today, although they do send one to HQ and the yard has a good record when sending just one runner to a track, especially in handicaps, as such runners are 62 from 267 (23.2% SR) for 72.6pts (+27.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2017.

Blindly backing an angle with so many runners isn't my thing, of course, so let's see if we can find some logical/profitable filters/angles, shall we? Such as...

  • 54/217 (24.9%) for 92.1pts (+42.5%) sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 53/206 (25.7%) for 90.7pts (+44%) within 130 miles of base
  • 44/156 (28.2%) for 80pts (+51.3%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 40/156 (25.6%) for 68.8pts (+44.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 21/72 (29.2%) for 55.8pts (+77.5%) in 3yo races
  • 21/59 (35.6%) for 68.2pts (+115.6%) in June/July
  • 6/15 (40%) for 25.3pts (+168.6%) with Oisin Murphy in the saddle (more on him very shortly)
  • and 5/9 (55.6%) for 30.2pts (+336%) with runners unraced for 3-5 months

And the Crisford solo travellers sent less than 130 miles from home to compete for less than £8k in a 3yo handicap at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 are 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.2% ROI), including 10 winners from 15 (66.6%) for 49.1pts (+327.2%) during June to September!

And finally (!) for today, the jockey, as you've probably guessed from above is the excellent Oisin Murphy, who (a) I thought might have been at Newmarket today and (b) has been riding really well this week making the frame 13 times from 24 (54.2%) including picking up three winners.

But it's his relationship with team Crisford that is of particular note here, because Oisin is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 17.7pts (+70.8% ROI) on the yard's handicappers to date, a good number of winners from not many rides and at backable prices, including...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 19.6pts (+108.8%) on male runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.3pts (+151.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 6/15 (40%) for 25.3pts (+168.6%) in races worth £4k to £10.5k
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 7.92pts (+79.2%) at Class 3

...whilst combining the above tells us that Oisin Murphy is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 29.2pts (+486.7% ROI) on the Crisford 3 yr old male handicappers in races worth £4k to £10.5k, including 2 from 3 for 9.82pts at Class 3...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Corvair @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up and behind, good headway on outside chasing leaders 4 out, 2nd 2 out, ridden and stayed on run-in, always held

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding won this race last year and aside from that, he became of immediate interest due to his overall record which includes the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins and 6 places from 13 here at Lingfield
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 8 over this 1m2f trip
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 under jockey Luke Morris
  • 2 wins from 2 under Luke over C&D
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 in cheekpieces
  • 2 from 2 in cheekpieces over C&D
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 this year
  • 2 from 2 over C&D this year
  • and 2 from 2 under Luke Morris over C&D this year whilst wearing cheekpieces...

Luke Morris also does well on trainer Simon Dow's other horses, clocking up 10 winners from 47 (21.3% SR) for 17.3pts (+36.9% ROI) and here's another of my baker's dozens of relevant profitable angles...

  • 10/46 (21.7%) for 18.3pts (+39.9%) on the A/W
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) on males
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) in handicaps
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) on Polytrack
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 24.3pts (+69.3%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.1pts (+88.3%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 28.2pts (+88.1%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 9/31 (29%) for 31.1pts (+100.4%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 23.4pts (+80.6%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 28.4pts (+118.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 20.3pts (+88%) here at Lingfield
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.7pts (+91.2%) on those with 1-3 previous C&D wins
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 18.1pts (+164.1%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f...

...whilst Simon + Luke + 3-6 yr old male A/W (Polytrack) handicappers + 9/4 to 11/1 + 1-30 dslr = 8/13 (61.5% SR) for 45pts (+346.1% ROI) and these include 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 30.1pts (+334.6%) in Class 6 contests worth less than £4k here at Lingfield...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes amongst others at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.00 Exeter : Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Prominent, led after 3rd, headed 11th, rallied 4 out, chased winner next, kept on under pressure) : you know your luck's out when you get done by a 66/1 shot!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old gelding has been in immaculate form since switching from turf to A/W last year. Fifth on Good to Firm ground on his race debut at Newmarket last June and then switched to the A/W where he is now 4 from 4, all at this 6f trip on left handed courses including...

  • 3 after 1-4 weeks rest, 3 for jockey Jack Mitchell and 3 this year
  • 2 in handicaps, 2 on Polytrack, 2 at Lingfield and therefore 2 over course and distance (inc LTO)
  • and 1 at Class 3 (LTO)

In addition to those excellent numbers, his trainer Simon Crisford does really well at this venue from a small, carefully selected number of runners sent here, about whom the market is often a good guide, as his handicappers sent off at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+44.1% ROI) profit on the A/W here, including of note/relevance today...

  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.02pts (+77.4%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 8/20 (40%) for 12.48pts (+62.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.51pts (+96.7%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/15 (40%) for 12.34pts (+82.25%) with male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.97pts (+85.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 11.2pts (+186.6%) over this 6f C&D
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.74pts (+82%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.02pts (+117%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.08pts (+127%) with previous course and distance winners

I don't really want to dilute the dataset too much to create an angle, but you might be interested to know that 3yr olds racing for less than £8k within a month of their last run are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 13.97pts (+155.2% ROI), including males at 3/3 (100%) for 8.28pts (+276%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Wednesday, with some 10/3 elsewhere at Hills & Spreadex but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!