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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th December

KEMPTON – DECEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £117.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (3.40): 5 (Monadee) & 8 (Azpeitia)

Leg 2 (4.10): 9 (Bombshell Bay), 1 (Dance Emperor) & 3 (Mr Gent)

Leg 3 (4.40): 12 (TumTum), 1 (Rusper) & 5 (Mayer)

Leg 4 (5.10): 6 (Highbrow) & 8 (Returning Glory)

Leg 5 (5.40): 3 (Humbert) & 5 (Maximinus Thrax)

Leg 6 (6.10): 8 (Viola Park), 1 (Wild Acclaim) & 6 (Vixen)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

3.40: MONADEE and AZPEITIA should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager, though that’s as far as my interest goes in the opening event.  Both horses can use their experience to decent effect in a race that should not take a great deal of winning.  Breathless Times is a newcomer to keep an eye on for the future, whilst Marco Botti’s Cloud Eight is entitled to come on a great deal for an ordinary debut effort over course and distance recently.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card.

 

4.10: Four of the last twelve horses saddled by Richard Hannon have won (seven points of level stake profit accrued during the period) and there has been a level of interest in BOMBSHELL BAY overnight, probably via win and place money given his favourable trap one position. His best effort was when beaten half a length when ‘given the office’ at Chelmsford a while ago since when he has been held up in recent races.  I’m inclined to think the trainer will opt for blasting out of the stalls from the inside position, adopting a catch me if you can stance which could prove favourable over this shorter trip, especially for each way investors who struck whilst most of the country slept.  The Placepot chance for DANCE EMPEROR is there for all to see, whilst MR GENT is saddled by Ed Dunlop who has greeted two of his last five runners in the area reserved for winners.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has gained a Placepot position thus far by winning its respective event at odds of 11/4.

 

4.40: I note that Holy Shambles is on the slide as I write this column, a potential description of the England Ashes tour which could be in place by tomorrow evening!  It was the declaration of George Baker’s newcomer French Cricket which drew me to the negative comment of the ‘professionals’ down under though whatever the performance of Root & Co during the coming days, this event might be best left to TUM TUM and Jamie Osborne’s Lingfield winner RUSPER from a Placepot perspective.  In receipt of seven pounds here, TUM TUM would be the tentative call if the proverbial gun was put to my head to name the potential winner.  Any money for MAYER could be worth heeding to small stakes.

Favourite factor: The is the first of two divisions of a new ‘novice’ event.

 

5.10: ONLY HIGHBROW and Saeed Bin Suroor’s lone runner on the card RETURNING GLORY are being shown any respect by punters at the time of writing and it would seemingly be churlish in the extreme to oppose this pair from a Placepot perspective.  Although poorly drawn (11/14), HIGHBROW showed enough over the course and distance on debut to suggest that a race of this nature should be there for the taking in ordinary company and the only other horse in the field that might turn out to be better than the adjective offered is RETURNING GLORY in the blue silks of Godolphin.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton programme.

 

5.40: Three pound claimer Marc Monaghan should be riding with confidence having ridden a winner for Marco Botti the other day, his 38th winner down the years which has been achieved via a strike rate just short of ten per cent.  Marco saddles HAIL CLOUD here and any move in the market should be covered to small stakes, if only to cover potential Placepot losses.  Others to consider include MAXIMINUS THRAX and HUMBERT who has some semi-serious money in the positive queue on the exchanges at around the 5/2 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful even money favourite had a lot to make up for via the two previous renewals of this event. In 2005, the frame was filled by horses which were returned at 8/1, 14/1 & 100/1, whilst the inaugural running recorded a defeat for the 2/5 market leader which finished out of the frame.

 

6.10: The three gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 8-13, stats which effectively rule four horses out of contention if you take the eight trend seriously, one of which fell through the ‘superior’ barrier via a jockey claim.  We are left with the seven horses to assess, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be VIOLA PARK, WILD ACCLAIM and VIXEN.  The (well drawn) first named pair have both been the subject of some support in the dead of night, whilst Eve Johnson Houghton saddles VIXEN, seeking to end a particularly good year for the popular trainer.

Favourite factor: Although we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective, three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale – no other course winners in ‘our sector’ of the meeting:

3/7—Dragon Dream

1/3—Brother In Arms

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this year + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Neil Mullholland (2/17 – loss of 17 points)

3—Marco Botti (7/56 +4)

3—Ed Dunlop (5/19 – loss of 17 points)

3—Richard Hughes (12/72 +22)

3—Hughie Morrison (5/33 – slight loss)

3—Pat Phelan (0/29)

2—Michael Appleby (6/29 +9)

2—John Best (1/39 – loss of 31 points)

2—Tony Carroll (2/79 – loss of 69 points)

2—David Elsworth (1/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—James Fanshawe (3/48 – loss of 30 points)

2—Jimmy Fox (2/24 – loss of 17 points)

2—Karen George (0/6)

2—John Gosden (13/58 – loss of 3 points)

2—Rae Guest (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Richard Hannon (15/129 – loss of 18 points)

2—Peter Hedger (1/14 – loss of 5 points)

2—Brett Johnson (4/19 +20)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (1/45 – loss of 36 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/12)

2—Gary Moore (7/62 – loss of 27 points)

2—Jamie Osborne (4/46 +8)

2—David Simcock (2/40 – loss of 34 points)

2—Ed Walker (13/61 – loss of 1 point)

2—Ian Williams (2/19 – loss of 9 points)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

97 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £171.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new (replacement) fixture

 

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.15 Lingfield : Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 Tracked leader until ridden just inside final furlong, kept on same pace.

And now we'll tackle Wednesday's...

3.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Attain @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner...

This 8 yr old gelding was a decent third here at this track just a week ago and comes into this contest with...

  • 7 previous wins at this trip
  • 6 wins at Class 6
  • 5 wins at this venue
  • 4 wins over course and distance
  • and 3 wins from just 9 within a week of his last run.

He was unlucky last time out when getting headed late on over 2 furlongs further than today, eventually just going down by a head twice to horses he was conceding 8lbs and 6lbs to respectively. He now runs off a mark 4lbs lower than his last winning mark and dropping back in trip, has to be feared.

Trainer Archie Watson is 4/15 (26.6% SR) over the last 14 days and backing all his horses blindly this year would have given you 52 winners from 257 (20.2% SR) for 17.1pts (+6.6% ROI), including...

  • at Class 5/6 : 44/181 (24.3%) for 50.2pts (+27.7%)
  • on the A/W : 35/155 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+14%)
  • 1-15 days since last run : 27/106 (25.5%) for 42.6pts (+40.2%)
  • ridden by Ed Greatrex : 16/72 (22.2%) for 11.8pts (+16.4%)
  • finished 3rd LTO : 8/39 (20.5%) for 8.5pts (+21.8%)
  • and on the A/W here at Lingfield : 6/36 (16.6%) for 2.17pts (+6.02%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Attain @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Tuesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 12th December

LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £197.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (11.30): 5 (Mother Of Dragons) & 3 (Inuk)

Leg 2 (12.00): 3 (Gold Club), 1 (Indian Affair) & 7 (Strictly Carter)

Leg 3 (12.30): 1 (Mr Freeze) & 2 (Merdon Castle)

Leg 4 (1.00): 6 (Very Honest) & 7 (Pretty Bubles)

Leg 5 (1.35): 8 (Emenem), 1 (Kyllacky Gala) & 9 (Van Huysen)

Leg 6 (2.10): 3 (Royal Birth), 8 (Shamshon) & 2 (Gracious John)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.30: Apologies for the late running of this service from Platform two this morning!  Were were away for the weekend and got 'snowed in' in the Cotswolds - the road outside the caravan camp was closed to fallen tress though thankfully, we had lots of alcohol with us to keep us warm!  Upwards and onward - In what is surely a match in an extremely weak event, MOTHER OF DRAGONS should not be hard pressed to score at leisure against INUK who is clearly superior to the other three on paper.  The first named favourite is eleven pounds clear of Inuk on official ratings, albeit a claimer closes that gap to just 64 ounces.  The fact that Inuk is also a recent winner against Mother Of Dragons who remains a maiden after eleven assignments suggests that the market should not be as wide as 8/15 & 2/1 (best odds at the time of writing) whereby aside from a bet on our favourite wager, cash should be safely under lock and key until horses of better ability run later on the card.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/1. Nine of the ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.  Four years have passed since the last market leader obliged but that said, the biggest priced winner scores at just 4/1 during that period.

 

12.00: Three-year-olds have won three of the six renewals thus far, whilst five of the gold medallists carried a minimum weight of nine stones. The form of the two junior raiders in the field suggests that I am going to have to swerve the trend here as far as vintage representatives are concerned and with a little money appearing for the likes of GOLD CLUB and INDIAN AFFAIR at the time of writing, this pair are the first names on the team sheet, followed by STRICTLY CARTER in an unappealing event.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/3—Kyllukey

1/2—Wild Flower

 

12.30: The appropriately named MR FREEZE has come in for quite a bit of support with a lot of firms this morning, whereby the three-year-old raider is given a chance on two other counts as well, being well berthed in the one stall, notwithstanding this grade/company representing a drop in class.  That aside, MERDON CASTLE would have been a confident call, though I guess that BILLYOAKES also boasts claims on the best of his form.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

3/15—Malaysian Boleh

1/20—Compton Prince

 

1.00: Last year’s winner PRETTY BUBBLES won this event twelve months ago off a twelve pound higher mark but against that, it is a sobering thought that this was her only victory via nine assignments at Lingfield to date.  VERY HONEST is consistent from a Placepot perspective and is preferred to Show Stealer accordingly, albeit Rae Guests’s projected favourite should not be far away at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite sneaked into the frame behind horses which filled the Placepot positions at 6/1 & 33/1.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/11—Diamond Lady

1/3—Very Honest

1/9—Pretty Bubbles

 

1.35: VAN HUYSEN won this event twelve months ago and whilst I would suggest that his general 25/1 quote this time around is not far away from an accurate assessment in terms of winning the contest, another Placepot position is not entirely ruled out of the equation, especially as a three time winner at the track.  More logical gold medallists include EMENEM and KYLLACHY GALA.  If you don’t fancy the front pair in the market and feel that last year’s winner has too much to do, Bronze Angel (2/3 at the course and a well-drawn contender) is another double figure priced option to consider.

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Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include two (7/4** & 2/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

2/3—Bronze Angel

1/2—Noble Peace

1/2—Emenem

3/14—Van Huysen

 

2.10: Last year’s winner GRACIOUS JOHN can rarely (if ever) be ignored in this grade/company and his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  That said, Stuart Williams has the best record at this corresponding meeting in recent years and given that the popular trainer held four entries on the card at the weekend, Stuart has declared just two entries and they both contest this event.  SHAMSHON is much the better drawn in trap one, though ROYAL BIRTH boasts stats of 2/4 from the track and not wishing to get into an argument between the pair, I’m adding both inmates into the Placepot mix.  Alsvinder is marginally ruled out of the Placepot permutation this time around.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position behind horses which filled the frame at 10/3, 14/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/6—Gracious John

2/4—Royal Birth

1/6—Zac Brown

1/5—Kasbeh

2/10—Come On Dave

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Milton Bradley (12/177 – loss of 89 points)

3—Phil McEntee (17/180 – loss of26 points)

2—Michael Attwater (30/369 – loss of 69 points)

2—Alan Bailey (12/155 – loss of 38 points)

2—John Bridger (16/279 - - loss of 108 points)

2—John Butler 14/87 – loss of 1 point)

2—Simon Dow (34/270 +14)

2—Mark Gillard (0/3)

2—Ron Hodges (5/49 +3)

2—Jamie Osborne (33/247 – loss of 12 points)

2—Charlie Wallis (1/24 – loss of 13 points)

2—Stuart Williams (37/212 +4)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £46.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2017

Monday's Result :

3.15 Fontwell : Stoical Patient @ 2/1 BOG non-runner Withdrawn at lunchtime due to a change in the advertised going.

We attempt a second start to the new week via Tuesday's...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,234 to the winner...

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after winning over this trip at Chelmsford 25 days ago and also here at Lingfield over course and distance almost 10 weeks ago. That C&D win was the only previous occasion that today's jockey Kieran Shoemark has ridden this horse, so they've a record of sorts to defend!

Trainer Amy Murphy might only be in her mid-20's and relatively new in trainer terms, but she has some good experience behind her and has been profitable to back blindly so far. Admittedly, she has only had 145 runners to date, but 19 winners (13.1% SR) have generated 59.9pts profit at an ROI of some 41.3% and these are impressive numbers indeed as a start-out trainer.

Of those 145 runners...

  • handicappers are 13/95 (13.7%) for 22.1pts (+23.3%)
  • on the A/W : 6/44 (13.6%) for 38.7pts (+88%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 5/37 (13.5%) for 40.1pts (+108.3%)
  • over this 5f trip : 3/18 (16.6%) for 27.7pts (+154%)
  • LTO winners are 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 2/12 (16.6%) for 18.3pts (+152.5%)
  • over 5f on the A/W : 3/9 (33.3%) for 36.72pts (+408%)
  • on the A/W here at Lingfield : 2/9 (22.2%) for 21.3pts (+236.6%)
  • and LTO winners running on the A?W are 2/4 (50%) for 16.76pts (+419%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & Marathon at 5.30pm on Monday, with plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 6th December

HAYDOCK – DECEMBER 6

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 5 (Pop Rockstar) & 1 (Thomas Patrick)

Leg 2 (1.20): 4 (Eamon An Cnoic), 3 (Buster Thomas) & 6 (Sainte Ladylime)

Leg 3 (1.55): 2 (Joke Dancer) & 5 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 4 (2.25): 4 (Morney Wing) & 5 (Just Georgie)

Leg 5 (3.00): 4 (Ravensdale), 1 (Duke Debarry) & 5 (Spider’s Bite)

Leg 6 (3.30): 4 (Its’afreebee), 3 (Clan Legend) & 2 (Tawseef)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: POP ROCKSTAR is the call, if for no other reason than every time someone offers 3/1 on the exchanges in the dead of night, the odds are snapped up quickly.  Five of the six runners saddled by the relevant trainer Jonjo O’Neill finished in the frame (exact science) on the opening day of the month, statistics which included two (7/1 & 2/1*) winners.  Tom Lacey boasts a 21% strike rate via his last six winners and Tom’s recent soft ground Exeter winner THOMAS PATRICK should not be far away when the whips are raised above shoulder level.  Un Guet Apens receives the reserve nomination given that James Ewart’s raider is at home on bad ground which is very likely to be in evidence at Haydock today with showers expected to fall on ground which is already described as saturated.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby there is no history of results.

 

1.20: The ‘jury is out’ regarding EAMON AN CNOIC (the only course winner in the field), given that David Pipe’s dual hurdle winner fell too early on his debut to predict how he might jump the bigger obstacles today. As the outsider of the six entries however, Tom Scudamore’s mount attracts the eye whereby if a double price figure emerges this morning, I will probably entertain the odds from a win and place perspective, albeit to minimum stakes.  This is a horror story of a Placepot teaser, with BUSTER THOMAS and SAINTS LADYLIME being added into the permutation, however tentatively.  Those raiders represent the in form yards of Emma Lavelle and Kim Bailey respectively and their entries should be there or thereabouts turning for home.  From there, it’s a case of whose exhaustion level is at its lowest, and that’s only talking about the jockeys!

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Eamon An Cnoic (soft)

 

1.55: There is an element of interest in the 100/1 winner Samson’s Reach in this event, though the booking of Richard Johnson might account from some of the small liquidity which has been accommodated. JOKE DANCER is the call via the three possible winners in the field from my viewpoint, with Sue Smith’s four-year-old taken to get the better of SHIVERMETIMBERS close home.

 

2.25: Charlie Mann has saddled two of his last five runners to winning (25/1 & 9/2) effect and his mud loving raider MORNEY WING looks the safest Placepot option in the contest, notwithstanding his potential gold medal claim in this grade/company.  Certainly Harry Bannister’s mount would be quite a confident Placepot call if all of the ‘dead eight’ runners faced the starter later today.  Should that not be the case, JUST GEORGIE would be added into the equation, given that he has claimed five medals via seven outings on soft/heavy ground to date, albeit no ‘golds’ are in evidence to date via thirteen assignments.  Unfortunately, I have to commit myself before breakfast is served in most dwellings whereby Sue Smith’s representative is included in my Placepot mix.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/6—Granville Island (soft)

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1/1—Morney Wing (heavy)

 

3.00: I have left three Placepot positions ‘open’ for this race which would raise serious questions if a non runner was to raise its ugly head, turning the event into a ‘win only’ contest.  RAVENSDALE, DUKE DEBARRY and SPIDER’S BITE would be expected to snare the prize between them given that scenario; hence their Placepot numbers are included in my framework.

 

3.30: The lads and lasses in the trade press have got carried away with their 8/1 ‘offer’ about ITS’AFREEBEE in the lucky last with Dan Skelton’s raider probably being priced up at around half of those odds this morning.  Bridget Andrews still represents good value for her three pound claim and the partnership should be bang in contention at the business end of proceedings, especially under the projected (heavy ground) conditions.  Not only is Its’afreebee the only course winner in the field; both victories here have been gained on this type of ground.  CLAN LEGEND rates as the main threat I’ll wager, though Donald McCain has already saddled four winners this month whereby it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of his recent Kelso winner TAWSEEF.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Its’afreebee (2 x heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Stuart Coltherd (0/1) – 1/8 – loss of 3 points

3—Donald McCain (0/2) – 10/79 – loss of 29 points

2—Nick Alexander (First runners this season) – 0/9

2—Henry Daly (0/1) – 4/30 – loss of 14 points)

2—Sue Smith (1/5 +2) – 11/98 +19

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

40 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ludlow: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield (A/W): £79.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £363.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 5th December

LINGFIELD – DECEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.40 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Tuesday: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 8 (Oriental Coach), 2 (Ar Mest) & 4 (Personal Coach)

Leg 2 (1.30): 6 (Rose Of Cimarron) & 9 (Glorvina)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (For Carmel) & 6 (Ben Arthur)

Leg 4 (2.30): 3 (Master Work), 2 (Sea Wall) & 5 (Clayton)

Leg 5 (3.00): 2 (Persian Snow), 5 (Cloudy Beach) & 6 (Allthegear No Idea)

Leg 6 (3.30): 3 (Yorgonnahearmeroar), 1 (Hadfield) & 8 (The Game Is A Foot)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: OREINTAL CROSS contested a reasonable Aintree event following a half decent effort on debut at Market Rasen and there is a chance that Tom Scudamore’s mount can make that experience pay here in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  The Cape Cross filly might attract support I’ll wager whereby the 10/1 quote in the trade press might look fanciful by flag fall.  The Ascot debut form of AR MEST obviously stands close inspection, whilst there was plenty of money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night for PERSONAL COACH.
Favourite factor: The two (5/6 & 10/11) market leaders to date duly obliged.

 

1.30: Warren Greatrex is a dab hand at eeking out winning opportunities for those less gifted than others in his stable, a comment which applies to ROSE OF CIMARRON, despite her victory in a weak bumper event at Uttoxeter earlier in the year.  High flying James Bowen is due another winner and his five pound claim will aid and abet the chance of GLORVINA, whose trainer Charlie Mann has won with two of the last three horses he has saddled.
Favourite factor: Both (7/4 and even money) favourites finished second thus far when securing Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Paul Henderson boasts a 21% strike rate over obstacles at this venue and the underrated trainer saddles FOR CARMEL here with a winning chance from my viewpoint.  Whilst generally earning his keep at the ‘gaff tracks’ (of which Lingfield is one), it should not be forgotten that Paul has saddled three winners at Cheltenham whereby we should never underestimate his raiders.  BEN ARTHUR has his ground today and with Kim Bailey boasting a 25% strike rate via his four winners of late, Tom Bellamy’s mount is definitely in my Placepot mix on his third start over the bigger obstacles.  The reserve nomination is awarded to dual course winner Burgess Dream who might have made his way into my permutation had there been more juice in the ground.
Favourite factor: The third race is a new event on the Lingfield card

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Point And Shoot (heavy)

2/5—Burgess Dream (2 x heavy)

 

2.30: Philip Hobbs saddles just his fourth runner at Lingfield since the old king died and though his previous three raiders here have been beaten in modern times, MASTER WORK is an unexposed type that should make the grade in this type of event.  Course specialist SEA WALL demands respect obviously, whilst the declaration of CLAYTON adds interest in what on paper looks a difficult race to assess, despite the lack of contenders.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (11/10) winner.

Record of the course winner in the field:

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3/6—Sea Wall (3 x heavy)

 

3.00: PERSIAN SNOW is another Philip Hobbs runner on the card with definite claims, with Philip looking to re-establish himself at the venue.  Philip has looked elsewhere for winners during the last five years but prior to that, the “Master trainer” bettered a 20% strike rate and there are clear signs that Philip wants to re-inact those days of old given his choice of declarations today.  CLOUDY BEACH is not without a chance at around the 8/1 mark here, especially with a decent five pound claimer in the plate.  That said, softer ground would have been ideal for the Venetia Williams representative, whilst course winner ALLTHEGEAR NO IDEA is another who has lost the winning habit but is well up to the grade on his best form.  Don’t be too quick to write off the chance of Wings Of Smoke who has attracted overnight support at 16/1.  It is not impossible to envisage the Tim Vaughan raider starting close to single figures by the time that flag fall is due.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Allthegear No Idea (heavy)

 

3.30: Although some of his runners during the period could have been described as ‘no hopers’, David Pipe’s recent 1/17 strike rate deters me from including Delface in my permutation, with yours truly preferring the likes of YOUGONNAHEARMEROAR, HADFIELD and course winner THE GAME IS A FOOT on this occasion. There will be enough well fancied horses finishing out of the frame throughout the card to ensure a half decent Placepot dividend I'll wager.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite was back pedalling at a rate of knots before falling at the final obstacle before last year’s market prevailed at the same price.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—The Game Is A Foot (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday with their stats at the track this season – followed by their five year ratios + profits and losses accrued for both scenarios:

7 runners—Gary Moore (6/29 +4) – 9/75 – loss of 19 points

2—Brian Barr (First runners at Lingfield this season) – 1/5 – Slight profit

2—Chris Gordon (0/2) – 7/33 – loss of 5 points

2—Philip Hobbs (0/3) – No previous runners before this season

2—Seamus Mullins (0/4) - 4/36 – loss of 19 points

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell (NH): £17.40 – 8 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 28th November

 

LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 5 (Its Got Legs) & 1 (Cavernous)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Al Shahir) & 4 (Fairmount)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Sir Hubert), 2 (Becauseshesaidso) & 3 (Point N Shoot)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Alice Pink), 6 (Naranja) & 4 (Miss Adventure)

Leg 5 (3.00): 8 (Allchilledout), 5 (Two Smokin Barrells) & 4 (Chef D’Oeuvre)

Leg 6 (3.30): 8 (Molly Carew), 5 (Corlay) & 2 (Spiritofthegames)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: A poor contest to start the meeting on a decidedly ordinary day which would struggle to live up to its name as the ‘Sport of Kings’!  Winners are winners in any class however and the opening event looks to be a potential match between ITS GOT LEGS and CAVERNOUS.  The pair is listed in order of preference simply because of the experience gained by the first named entry. That said, if CAVERNOUS (brother to the very useful Willoughby Court) hacks up by a distance, it would not come as a complete surprise, especially with Ben Pauling having saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 34 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/15 favourite finished out of the money, the ‘short field’ frame being filled by horses which were returned at 25/1 & 6/1.  The majority of punters gained their revenge twelve months ago however when the 9/4 market leader scored in facile fashion. New readers might like to learn that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.30: Although this is another extremely average event, it’s worth noting that the three winners to date have hailed from top yards, the most recent of which was Dan Skelton’s stable which is represented today by AL SHAHIR.  Harry’s mount was the 6/4 favourite in a Class 3 event last time out where we can expect far shorter odds for this drop down in grade.  A winner under heavy conditions at Newcastle when winning his only race (of five in total) in a bumper event, AL SHAHIR beat Wig Wam Wiggle by eight lengths on that occasion, with the runner up having scored the other day at Hexham to frank the form.  Martin Keighley’s form at Lingfield is better than most (see current and five year ratios below) whereby FAIRMOUNT might chase the selection home, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The three favourites have snared a gold medal and two of the silver variety thus far alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Richard Rowe’s only runner on the card is SIR HUBERT which makes for interesting reading as Richard has saddled two of the three winners of this event to date, the trainer not having been representative in the other renewal. Offered at 9/1 right across the board in the dead of night as I write this column, it will interesting to see if any money arrives for the seven-year-old Multiplex gelding who goes chasing for the first time this afternoon. BECAUSESHESAIDSO is regarded as the main threat (Charlie Deutsch takes off a useful three pounds), whilst POINT N SHOOT is preferred of the two course winners in the line up.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite (silver medallist) has finished in the money thus far via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/2—Point N Shoot (heavy)

1/2—Touch Screen (soft)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date which suggests that NARANJA should go close, though Gavin Sheehan will be hoping for a better ride aboard Jamie Snowden’s raider than was the case on the beaten 11/8 favourite twelve months ago.  ALICE PINK is the ‘dark horse’ in the race, whilst Phil Middleton can do little wrong in the training ranks at present whereby the chance of MISS ADVENTURE demands respect at a big price.  Money has arrived for Queen Of The Wind overnight which makes for interesting reading given that Colin Tizzard snared a nice 10/1 winner (Mister Malarky) for yours truly at Kempton yesterday.  I’m unsure whether the current 16/1 quote (almost right across the board) will still be in place by the time the offices start receiving calls later this morning.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (5/6 and even money) winners.

 

3.00: ALLCHILLEDOUT was a beaten favourite on the card last year and it looks as though punters with long memories are looking for a return at much bigger odds today as Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old Alflora gelding has been backed overnight.  TWO SMOKIN BARRELLS has her ground, especially with the chase course reportedly being softer than the hurdle track today.  All three of the Warren Greatrex runners were beaten on the corresponding card last year but with Warren firing in more than his fair share of winners recently, his lone entry (course winner) CHEF D’OEUVRE has to be included in my short list.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful 9/4 (joint) favourite.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/3—Solstice Star (soft & heavy)

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1/1—Chef D’Oeuvre (heavy)

 

3.30:  I think we know that Song Light is going to pop up one of these days but he entered my ‘last chance saloon’ last time out and I have little option but to look elsewhere.  Now could be the time to cash in in accordingly guys!  Dual soft/heavy ground winner MOLLY CAREW demands respect, whilst CORLAY could be anything representing the famous McManus colours.  ARDMAYLE is a very big price considering the conditions, though I guess SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is a more logical option.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite duly obliged, before last year’s 2/1 market leader found one two good when snaring a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ardmayle (heavy)

1/1—Molly Carew (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by this seasons ratios (in brackets) and then five years stats at the course + level stake profits/losses accrued relating to both periods:

4 runners—Laura Mongan (No runners this season) – 0/9 last five years

4—Gary Moore (0/4) – 9/73 – loss of 17 points

4—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 3/26 +23

3—Martin Keighley (1/1 +14) – 4/9 +14

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 4/33 – loss of 16 points

2—Nick Gifford – (0/1) – 0/7

2—Mark Gillard (1/1 +12) – 1/13 – level profit/loss

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) – 7/32 – loss of four points

2—Paul Henderson (No runners) – 2/11 – loss of 2 points

2—Ben Pauling (No runners) – 1/3 – slight loss

2—Dan Skelton (0/2) – 5/12 +13

2—Roger Teal (No runners in either period)

2—Colin Tizzard (No runners) – 2/10 – loss of 3 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £63.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell A/W: Meeting abandoned

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 25th November

HAYDOCK - NOVEMBER 25

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £459.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Dynamite Dollars) & 4 (Midnight Shadow)

Leg 2 (12.40): 4 (Belmount), 5 (Courtown Oscar) & 7 (Russe Blanc)

Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Clan Des Obeaux), 5 (Vintage Clouds) & 4 (Born Survivor)

Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Verni), 1 (Clyne) & 3 (El Terremoto)

Leg 5 (2.25): 2 (Zarkandar), 14 (Templeross) & 3 (The Worlds End)

Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 3 (Outlander)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests, with Paul Nicholls having trained one of them back in 2014. Paul has declared vintage raider DYNAMITE DOLLARS with an undeniable chance to get punters off to a flying start at the meeting, especially as Paul’s hat trick seeker seemed to make light of soft conditions the last day when sauntering to an eleven length victory.  Just how bad the ground will be is unknown in the dead of night but either way, it’s difficult to envisage the late May foal finishing out of the ‘short field’ frame.  MIDNIGHT SHADOW represents Sue Smith who has saddled two of her last eight runners to winning effect and taking into account that three of the beaten horses were returned at prices ranging between 40/1 & 150/1, the ratio is impressive enough to consider Sue’s four-year-old representative.  DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, whilst nine of the gold medallists during the period scored at a top price of 7/2.

 

12.40: I’ve talked before about media coverage and its glib comments before in general terms.  Today we’re told by the trade press that BELMOUNT has “a bit to prove regarding the trip and the ground”.  The trip remark is fair comment, but having finished ‘in the three’ four times via five assignments on heavy ground to date (winner of one of those contests), I suggest you take that comment with more than the proverbial pinch of salt!  Nigel Twiston-Davies has won with three of his last eight runners for good measure, whereby BELMOUNT (eight-year-olds have won four of the six contests) is included in the Placepot mix alongside mud loving types such as fellow vintage representative COURTOWN OSCAR and RUSSE BLANC. who will return as a slight darker shade of grey than he appears in the parade ring I’ll wager!  In contrast to the comments about Belmount, Hainan is 0/9 on soft/heavy ground but there’s not a word questioning his ability to act under today’s conditions!  Win, lose or draw the advice is simple.  Don’t take comments literally unless they are backed up by written/spoken facts, pure and simple.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 4/1 market leader was the first to score at the sixth attempt.  Only two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:

1/4—Emperor’s Choice (soft)

 

1.15:  Paul Nicholls has secured the last five renewals and there is every chance that Paul’s great record will be extended here, the trainer having offered the green light to CLAN DES OBEAUX who has recorded his biggest margin of victory on soft ground thus far via a 4/11 ratio.  The ground should not prove to be a problem for VINTAGE CLOUDS (runner up in this race twelve months ago), especially as his latest victory was gained over an extended three miles, whereby he should be staying on when others have cried enough.  BORN SURVIVOR is another contender who acts on the ground (as well as any thoroughbred can) which sets us up nicely for an interesting ‘Graduation Chase’ to witness.
Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top price of 7/2 to date, statistics which include two winning favourites at 11/10 and 11/4.  The other four market leaders all missed out on Placepot positions as the relevant events were of the ‘win only’ variety.

Record of the course winner in the line-up:

1/7—Vintage Clouds (soft)

 

1.50: I note that Skybet are already taking evasive action about the chance of VERNI, albeit Richard Johnson’s mount is held on the book by CLYNE, though mainly because of the five pound claimer in the saddle relating to the mud loving top weight.  Although twelve pounds higher in the weights thanks to an impressive Stratford win the last day, last year’s heavy ground winner EL TERREMOTO cannot be eliminated from my enquiries given his 11/1 quote (Betfair/Paddy Power) at the time of writing.  Certainly not from a value for money Placepot perspective, albeit I concede that this is a deeper race twelve months on.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include two (9/4 & 3/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

2/3—Clyne (soft & heavy)

1/2—El Terremoto (heavy)

1/1—Chti Balko (heavy)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, facts which led me to short listing two of the last three (12/1 & 9/1) winners.  Last year’s race was secured by an older contender and I would not rule out a half decent effort from ZARKANDAR here at around the 20/1 mark.  A winner of two of his three races on heavy ground, Zarkandar’s race record of 11/33 stand very close inspection, notwithstanding an additional ten silver/bronze medals.  I’m having an each way bet on the old boy to minimum stakes, whilst adding TEMPLEROSS and THE WORLDS END into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Silsol (good)

1/1—Zarkandar (good to soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good to soft)

 

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3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last eleven winners and I am a little surprised that Paul has not been tempted into taking on the market leaders here, given that there are question marks about both horses.  CUE CARD has landed up on the floor in two of his last three races, whilst BRISTOL DE MAI looked to be on a regressive route before turning back the tide the last day.  Both horses are class acts on their day, as is OUTLANDER but all three runners at this stage of their respective careers would have struggled to win this event had some of the former winners in their prime been in the field.  That said, it should make into an interesting event and presuming that Cue Card will represent poor value from a Placepot perspective, I’ll opt for the other pair, though if the eleven year-old turns back the years, nobody will be roaring him on more than yours truly, providing (of course) that one of the other pair join him in the Placepot result.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven warm favourites (five of them winners of their respective races at 4/6, 4/5, 10/11, 11/10 & 15/8) have reached the frame to date. The other (2/5--4/5--15/8--3/1) market leaders missed out from a Placepot perspective.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Bristol De Mai (soft & heavy)

3/4—Cue Card (2 x soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 winners—Dan Skelton (6/49 – loss of 18 points)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (14/78 – loss of 9 points)

4—Paul Nicholls (14/66 – loss of 18 points)

4—Sue Smith (10/94 +15)

3—Colin Tizzard (4/18 – loss of 2 points)

2—Peter Bowen (3/19 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/20)

2—Harry Fry (3/13 +5)

2—Philip Hobbs (8/60 – loss of 12 points)

2—Sophie Leech (1/4 +3)

2—Donald McCain (10/77 – loss of 27 points)

2—Dr Richard Newland (2/14 +1)

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/19 – loss of 8 points)

2—Evan Williams (8/59 +42)

2—Nick Williams (3/17 +7)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £39.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Huntingdon: £182.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £288.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £9.30 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 21st November

FAKENHAM - NOVEMBER 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £64.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 placed)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 4 (Minstrel Royal), 1 (Nautical Nitwit) & 2 (Cliffside Park)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Maid Of Milan) & 2 (Kayfleur)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Barrd), 3 (Chilli Romance) & 4 (Cocker)

Leg 4 (2.20): 1 (Holbrook Park), 3 (Red Hanrahan) & 4 (The Lion Dancer)

Leg 5 (2.50): 6 (Broadway Belle) & 2 (Dizzey Heights)

Leg 6 (3.20): 3 (Mercian King) & 1 (Movie Legend)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.50: A tough opening leg of our favourite wager, not least because the outsider of the field is the only horse to have attracted money in the dead of night.  Ex Nicky Henderson trained MINSTREL ROYAL can still be backed at 14/1 with Betfair which could be worked as a small bet/saver (at the very least) if you don’t particularly fancy any of his rivals.  James Bowen is receiving rave reviews this season and his five pound claim should enable NAUTICAL NITWIT to become competitive at this level, with similar comments also applying to Richard Johnson’s mount CLIFFSIDE PARK.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one successful (85/40) market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Cliffside Park (good)

1/19—Occasionally Yours (good)

 

1.20: James Bowen (MAID OF MILAN) and Richard Johnson (KAYFLEUR) have secured the plum rides here, albeit such terminology is a little over the top in this grade!  The pair have to be listed in order of preference given the chasing records of 1/2 & 0/10 respectively.  Similarly, Armedandbeautiful is listed ahead of Frank N Fair of the other entries, given that Zoe Davison is still looking for her first victory at the track having saddled fourteen losers during the last five years. Indeed, Zoe offers a level stake loss of 52 points via career figures of 1/55 at Fakenham.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have snared Placepot positions, three of the market leaders having prevailed at 11/10 (twice) and 15/8.

 

1.50: I would be a tad worried about your mind set if you felt like wading into odds of 4/7 about BARDD, given that seven assignments have slipped by since Nicky Henderson’s Dylan Thomas gelding secured his one and only victory to date on his second start.  I fully appreciate that this opposition should be put in its place with the minimum of fuss but that said, only the Placepot scenario would lure to me include the projected hot-pot in my bets this afternoon.  COCKER makes some appeal I guess with Mr Ferguson in the plate, though CHILLI ROMANCE should be the horse to test the resolve of the market leader at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Fakenham card.

 

2.20: Another ‘win only’ event on the Fakenham programme which makes the predicted Placepot dividend pretty much impossible to predict.  Cynics will argue that if the short price horses win, the game is up for people who invest in permutations but the attitude I adopt is that there could be a mega return in the offing if such moderate horses are beaten.  Upwards and onward by including THE LION DANCER (trainer Charlie Mann has a decent record here) alongside likelier winners, namely HOLBROOK PARK and RED HANRAHAN who are listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: Both of the hot (1/3 & 8/13) favourites had been beaten in ‘win only’ contests before a 6/5 market leaders got punters out of jail in another win only event twelve months ago.

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2.50: In opposing Saucysioux here, I am doing so in the genuine belief that either BROADWAY BELLE or DIZZEY HEIGHTS would accompany the favourite in the frame, even if the projected market leader was to win the race.  In order to achieve a Placepot dream of securing a great dividend, a chance has to be taken here and there and I’m as confident as I can be that one of the two ‘selections’ will finish in the ‘short field’ frame, irrespective which other horse also secured a position in the first two. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Dizzey Heights (good)

 

3.20: In assessing the final leg of our favourite wager, we have to be positive in the thought that at least one of the hot favourites is going to finish out of the money whereby we should put ourselves in a position to ‘lay off’ from a Placepot perspective if the dividend is showing signs of paying really well.  You can determine that prospect by looking at my (Malcolm Boyle) Twitter page this afternoon where I will offer updates after every race as well as listing the ‘Placepot betting’ for each contest.  There is plenty of money in the positive queues on the exchanges this morning for course winner MERCIAN KING and MOVIE LEGEND and this pair will do for me against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is the second of the new races on the Fakenham programme.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Mercian King (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fakenham card on Tuesday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and profits/losses accrued and then their five year figures:

3 runners—Zoe David (No runners this season) – 0/14

3—Olly Murphy (1/6 – loss of 3 points – same stats

2—Alan Blackmore (0/1) – 1/31 – loss of 25 points

2—Neil King (2/7 +21) – 10/25 +26

2—Phil Kirby (0/1) – 2/9 +13

2—Charlie Mann (1/4 – slight loss) – 4/16 +4

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

29 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell: £22.20 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W: £339.90) – 7 favouries – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2017

Monday's Result :

2.40 Plumpton : Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG 6th at 15/8 Keen, held up in last pair, pushed along after 3 out, plugged on, never on terms. Held up way too far off the pace IMO and was never really put into the race. Seems like trial & error tactics going on with this horse, as opposed to any real plan.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Short Work @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap sprint over 6f on Polytrack worth £4,690 to the winner.

A fairly brief back to basics style approach today with a 4 yr old gelding who already has 5 wins and a place from 6 starts over today's 6 furlong trip, whilst in the 5 races with jockey Danny Tudhope on his back, he has 4 wins and a place, so the task ahead should be right up his street.

He's trained by David O'Meara, whose best figures are admittedly achieved in the North and in Scotland, but there is a niche where he excels here too. And that's with runners priced at 4/1 and shorter on the A/W here. We are only looking at 17 runners in recent times, but with 9 winners (52.9% SR) producing 16.6pts (+97.6% ROI) profit, they cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that of those 17 runners, Danny Tudhope has 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) for 10.47pts (+174.6%).

My final point of reference is possibly normally one of your own starting points, ie the Geegeez racecards. And I'm looking at the pace first and it tells me that horses who lead fare best over this course and distance and our boy is one of three runners with the joint highest pace ranking.

These three "pacesetters" are drawn in 6, 7 and 8, so we're in the pace pocket and the pace/draw heatmap suggests leaders drawn higher get the best results, so from stall 8, we should be well placed.

...all of which points to ... a 1pt win bet on Short Work @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet & Sunbets at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Lingfield

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 18th November

CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,898.00 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 4 (Gumball) & 6 (Apple’s Shakira)

Leg 2 (1.15): 1 (Ballyoptic), 3 (West Approach) & 2 (Black Corton)

Leg 3 (1.50): 6 (Premier Bond), 5 (Three Faces West) & 7 (Doing Fine)

Leg 4 (2.25): 10 (Starchitect), 1 (Kylemore Lough), 7 (Foxtail Hill) & 12 (Aqua Dude)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Rocky’s Treasure) & 6 (Kk Lexion)

Leg 6 (3.30): 8 (Poker Play), 5 (Red Indian) & 14 (Coup De Princeau)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Philip Hobbs has won this event on the last two occasions when represented and with five winners to his name at the corresponding Saturday Cheltenham meeting during the last six years, Philip appears to have found a great opportunity for GUMBALL to continue a fine start to his career.  Philip’s winner last year went on to win the ‘Triumph’ at the festival and this is the official trial for that race at this stage of the season.  APPLE’S SHAKIRA rates as a definite threat in receipt of seven pounds, a concession that might ask a serious question of GUMBALL.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include eight winners.

 

1.15: This is more of a competitive feature (despite only three runners having been declared) than was the case last year when Thistlecrack frightened off any serious challengers.  The old adage of backing the ‘outsider of three’ has some attraction here with Paul Nicholls having dominated the Saturday fixture down the years, notwithstanding the fact that BLACK CORTON is the only course winner in the line up.  WEST APPROACH receives three pounds from BALLYOPTIC which should bring the pair close together and one way another my friends, tens of thousands of Placepot units will be blown out of the water here, irrespective of the result.  One of the media ‘experts’ recently said that if you backed the outsider of three in every relevant race, that you would go skint very quickly in his own inimitable style.  In my recent video, I suggested that ‘media’ types were too lazy to back up what they said with actual facts and this is a case in point.  Off the cuff remarks like this are ‘throwaway lines’ that have no place in the sport from my viewpoint.  The comment might (I repeat might) be accurate, but that’s not the point. I will offer the real stats regarding the ‘outsider of three’ issue such as soon as I get some time.  Another casual remark this week was that Tim Easterby had his team in “great form”.  Out of interest, Tim’s latest ratio stands at 8/129 under both codes, offering a level stake loss of 75 points. I rest my case.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last twenty years, though just five of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Black Corton (good)

 

1.50: 17 of the last 18 winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, whilst 13 of those gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 10-13.  Seven year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-2 via the last seven renewals and putting the stats and facts together, only PREMIER BOND possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes.  THREE FACES WEST and DOING FINE stand out from the crowd via lowly weighted horses and are added into the Placepot mix accordingly.  The reserve nomination is awarded to PERFECT CANDIDATE.  Minella Rocco was the beaten (11/2) favourite in the race last year and for all that his runner up effort in the Gold Cup stands him in good stead, he is not one to rely on I’ll wager, especially with plenty of moisture underfoot.  Trainers and jockeys were suggesting that yesterday’s official ground of good to soft was ‘generous’ to say the least, quotes which were proven by the recorded times of the races.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have snared gold of late alongside one co favourite, whilst 13 of the 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Minella Rocco (good to soft)

2/11—Perfect Candidate (good & heavy)

2/5—Vicente (good & good to soft)

1/4—Doing Fine (good)

 

2.25: Six and seven-year-olds have claimed 11 of the last 14 renewals of this BetVictor Gold Cup (seven-year-olds lead 8-3 during the relevant period), whilst vintage representatives have secured an additional 18 toteplacepot positions in the process. 11 of the last 15 gold medallists carried a maximum weight of 11-2, whilst the Pond House (David and Martin Pipe) team has claimed eight of the last 18 contests.  Putting the facts and stats together suggests that the likes of STARCHITECT and AQUA DUDE are the each way plays in the contest. That said, KYLEMORE LOUGH has been laid out for this event for some considerable time, whilst FOXTAIL HILL could lead this field a merry dance from the front and they will have to get to him on the turn for home as I doubt that Colin Tizzard’s raider will be coming back to them!  Tully East will attract plenty of support I guess, though Irish trained runners have secured just one renewal (2009) since they previously scored 37 years ago.  For the record, there will be worse 40/1 chance on the card than Splash Of Ginge I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 18 years, whilst 10 market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the feature race:

1/3—Le Prezien (soft)

1/1—Double Treasure (good)

1/3—Viconte Du Noyer (good to soft)

1/2—Tully East (good to soft)

2/5—Foxtail Hill (good & soft)

2/5—Ballyalton (good & good to soft)

1/1—Plaisir D’Amour (good)

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2/10—Splash Of Ginge (good to soft & soft)

 

3.00: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last fifteen renewals of this event, whilst claiming an additional nine toteplacepot positions in the process. The last eighteen winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less and putting the stats and facts together four years ago led to your truly making a case out for the 20/1 winner Return Spring.  The following 9/2 winner Katkeau was also short listed and this year's main focus centres on ROCKY’S TREASURE and KK LEXION.  Last year’s 20/1 soft ground winner Anteros has been nibbled at on the exchanges overnight which makes for interesting reading, possibly on account of the ground which will have offered connections hope on Friday.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders (all within the last thirteen years) have won this event alongside two joint favourites.  15 of the last 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/8—Dell’ Arca (good)

2/3—Thomas Campbell (2 x good)

1/9—Rolling Maul (soft)

1/9—Anteros (soft)

 

3.35: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared 18 of the 19 renewals to date, with RED INDIAN and COUP DE PRICEAU expected to figure prominently in a highly competitive Placepot finale.  Four-year-old POKER PLAY catches the eye as well however, especially with the Pipe team having landed some great gambles in this event down the years.  If you see a Poker Play bus (Number 8) coming up the high street failing to stop where it should, jump aboard as best you can!

Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged to date, whilst eleven of the twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Eleven of the last seventeen winners were returned at 40/1-16/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-10/1-8/1.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Saturday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last six years:

7 runners—Paul Nicholls (8)

6—Nicky Henderson (1)

4—Colin Tizzard (2)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Philip Hobbs (5)

3—Fergal O’Brien (2)

3—David Pipe (5)

3—Ian Williams

2—Kim Bailey

2—Emmanuel Claueux

2—Harry Fry (1)

2—Tom George

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Charlie Longsdon

2—J P O’Brien

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3)

2—Jamie Snowden

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Uttoxeter: £728.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £229.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £99.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £106.00 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 17th November

CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £208.30 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (What A Moment), 7 (What Happens Now) & 11 (Indian Castle)

Leg 2 (1.15): 4 (Counter Shy), 13 (Magic Dancer), 6 (Or De Vassy) & 16 (War On The Rocks)

Leg 3 (1.50): 4 (Doitforthevillage), 5 (Exitas) & 3 (Festive Affair)

Leg 4 (2.25): 3 (Movewiththetimes), 1 (Finian’s Oscar) & 4 (William Henry)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Auvergnat) & 2 (Cantlow)

Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (On The Blind Side) & 3 (Calett Mad)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Leading trainers at this meeting during the last six years:

Before you take ANYTHING else into account, one stunning fact emerges during a six year study of the Open meeting.

Just three trainers have contributed 48/112 winners, which equates to 42.8% of the entire set of gold medallists.  If you add the fourth trainer into the mix, the percentage rises to 50.0%, exactly half of the total number of winners!

The relevant leading trainers are as follows:

17 winners—Paul Nicholls (3 on Friday – 8 on Saturday – 6 on Sunday)

17 winners—David Pipe (6-5-6)

14 winners—Philip Hobbs (4-5-5)

8 winners—Nicky Henderson (2-1-5)

 

12.40: Thirteen of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, with Regal Flow expected to lead home the relevant runners.  This might prove to be a stronger renewal than usual however, with last year’s winner WHAT A MOMENT attempting to become David Pipe’s fourth winner in the race in the last seven years.  This is one of the few ‘prestige’ races for amateur pilots that Derek O’Connor has failed to win, though the popular jockey has definite claims aboard WHAT HAPPENS NOW this time around.  INDIAN CASTLE has a half decent chance of rounding off a fine week for Ian Williams, with the nine-year-old being marginally preferred to Regal Flow on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and a couple of joint favourites have won in the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 26 jollies have finished in the frame. Seven of the last 18 winners have been returned in double figures.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Solstice Son (good)

1/2—What A Moment (good)

1/1—What Happens Now (good)

2/11—Lamb Or Cod (good)

1/7—Indian Castle (heavy)

1/4—Regal Flow (good)

 

1.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals with vintage representative being 3/1 to extend the advantage before form is taken into consideration via just four declarations. COUNTER SHY stands out from that small crowd, whilst MAGIC DANCER is the one for money on the exchanges in the dead of night.  Kerry Lee (three winners of late) has wasted no time in running her five-year-old after winning at Kempton on Monday but if turning up here in the same form, Kerry’s Norse Dancer gelding should figure prominently.  Others to consider include OR DE VASSY and WAR ON THE ROCKS who represents Fergal O’Brien who often sneaks under the radar, having proved to be the underrated trainer at Prestbury Park in recent times.

Favourite factor: Although five favourites have obliged during the study period, only one of the last ten market leaders has prevailed.  Nine of the fifteen favourites have snared toteplacepot positions

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last six contests, whilst the last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-13.  DOITFORTHEVILLAGE is the only eight-year-old in the field, whilst FESTIVE AFFAIR could outrun his odds via the weight trend.  That all said, EXITAS represents the bang in form trainer Phil Middleton (7/19) who had produced 43 points of level stake during the relevant period.  Exitas finished well clear of Festive Affair in a recent event but the latter named Jonjo O’Neill raider will be race fit this time around whereby the differential in odds suggests that an each way play on Festive Affair could be the way to play the race.

Favourite factor: Only three favourites have obliged during the study period, albeit that 13 of the other 17 scorers were sent off in single SP figures without being returned as market leaders.  Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

1/5—Mick Thonis (good)

1/2—Kapstadt (good)

1/6—Un Beau Roman (good)

 

2.25: It took a seven-year-old horse of the calibre of More Of That (two years back) to end a run of six-year-olds who claimed the previous nine renewals of this event.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago and there must be a chance that Paul Nicholls can extend the run of vintage representatives with MOVEWITHTHETIMES, who interestingly is Paul’s only runner on the opening day of the meeting.  Unless my eyes deceived me, FINIAN’S OSCAR was put in at 8/13 by the trade press yesterday afternoon but the lads/lasses in the office have seen the error of their ways by offering the Tizzard representative at 10/11 now.  Most unusually I am going to suggest you have a saver on the rank outside Coo Star Sivola if your permutation is still live going into this race, suggesting that WILLIAM HENRY is a more logical from a win perspective. That said, Nick Williams (Coo Star Sivola) has pulled quite a few rabbits out of hats with ‘no hopers’ down the years.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have prevailed during the last fifteen years.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—Coo Star Sivola (good)

1/3—William Henry (good)

 

3.00: Regular readers will know that I am not transfixed by this event, as opposed (seemingly) to media types who love to hype up anything ‘new’.  I guess it is a spectacle which at least gets people out of their ‘boxes’ and onto the centre of the racecourse to watch the sport on offer, or shall we tell the truth that only true racegoers set foot out there in the real world!  I just think it would have made a fine finale on the Friday of the meeting, a seventh race away from Placepot aspirations but then again, that’s just my viewpoint.  Upwards and onwards by informing that Enda Bolger has won six of the last twelve contests, whereby the Placepot chances (at the very least) for AUVERGNAT and three time course winner CANTLOW are there for all to see. Philip Hobbs is one of the few English trainers to have won the race (three times) whereby BERTIE BORU can be expected to figure prominently, especially as Philip has his team in great form, offering a recent ratio of 8/23, stats which have produced 53 points of level stake profits.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the twenty renewals to date, whilst eighteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 10/1 down the years.

Record of the course winners in the Cross Country event:

3/7—Cause Of Causes (2 x good & good to soft)

1/9—Cantlow (good to firm)

1/1—Urgent De Gregaine (good to soft)

1/6—Aubusson (soft)

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven renewals of this Grade 2 novice hurdle event, with vintage representatives at 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted via four relevant raiders.  I’m a little hesitant to oppose Poetic Rhythm from Fergal O’Brien’s yard but I will adhere to my self-confessed anorak tendencies by stick with the two of the five-year-olds in the field, namely ON THE BLIND SIDE and course winner CALLET MAD.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite (of three) have won during the study period, whilst 15 of the 23 jollies reached the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Poetic Rhythm (soft)

1/2—Calett Mad (good)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Friday followed their Cheltenham stats this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

5—Jonjo O’Neill (0/4)

3—Nicky Henderson (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (2/7 +4)

3—Ian Williams (0/4)

2—Enda Bolger (No previous runners)

2—Emannuel Clayeux (No previous runners)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/5)

2—Paul Henderson (0/2)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/4)

2—Sophie Leech (0/7)

2—Donald McCain (1/1 +8)

2—Dan Skelton (1/9 – loss of 4 points)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/11 +7)

2—Nick Williams (No previous runners)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newcastle (NH): £21.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W) : £119.00 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: This Is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2017

Monday's Result :

4.00 Kempton : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Chased leaders, outpaced before 2 out, 4th and well held when awkward last.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £6,963 to the winner.

And an 8 yr old gelding who finished the last campaign in fine form with 2 wins and 2 places from his last five starts (14313). He's been off track for 8 months, as have many November runners and with regards to his stamina today, wins at 2m4.5f & 2m5.5f allied to a record of 2 wins and 2 places from five on Soft should help dispel any fears about staying.

His trainer, Neil Mulholland, already has 2 wins and 2 places from five runners at this venue this year (P3113), whilst jockey Tom Scudamore is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 16.9pts (+30.7% ROI) here since 2010, broken down as follows...

  • on males : 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.1pts (+50.2%)
  • on 6 to 10 yr olds : 10/34 (29.4%) for 30.4pts (+89.3%)
  • on ground worse than good to soft : 9/31 (29%) for 14.3pts (+46.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/31 (25.8%) for 22.9pts (+73.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.8pts (+63.9%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 22.8pts (+78.6%)
  • over fences : 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+165%)
  • at 2m3.5f/2m4f : 4/16 (25%) for 7.38pts (+46.1%)
  • and on horses returning from a layoff of over 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.73pts (+108.1%)

There's also the possibility that Arden Denis will go off as favourite and whilst blindly backing favs is a shortcut to the poor house, it's worth noting that this year, Tom Scudamore is 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 13pts (+41.9% ROI) on chase favourites, with handicappers winning 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 13pts (+48%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 2nd November

LINGFIELD – NOVEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £112.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Scandaleuse) & 4 (Ghanimah)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Il Primo Sole) & 12 (Statehood)

Leg 3 (1.20): 4 (Promising Run) & 1 (Muffri’Ha)

Leg 4 (1.50): 10 (Bobbie Wheeler), 14 (Easy Tiger) & 4 (Sacred Act)

Leg 5 (2.25): 9 (Cribbs Causeway), 14 (Val De Marne) & 12 (Melodic Motion)

Leg 6 (2.55): 6 (Miss Pacific), 7 (Unit Of Assessment) & 11 (Luxford)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: It appears significant that the Sir Michael Stoute team can make its journey back to Newmarket following the first race on the card, with SCANDALEUSE being the only stable representative at Lingfield on Thursday.  Indeed, Michael only has two more runners pencilled in before next Monday whereby the entry here takes on a more positive declaration from my viewpoint.  GHANIMAH looks the obvious threat, with a Placepot position surely there for the taking if the William Haggas trained Invincible Spirit filly can offer the normal amount of improvement (whatever that is) following a decent debut effort at Kempton three weeks ago.

Favourite factor: We are back in the realms of ‘fantasy land’ whereby the powers that be have labelled the first two races on the card as ‘new events’ even though they carry the exact credentials required to contest the races in the past!  Upwards and onward be informing the first two (1/2 & 5/4) favourites found one too good for them when securing Placepot positions thus far, should you decide to stick with my historic facts and figures.  If that should be the case, I’ll round of by parting with the news that last year’s even money market leader failed to reach the frame.

 

12.45: Charlie Appleby’s Kodiac newcomer STATEHOOD also holds an entry next Tuesday but with only IL PRIMO SOLE standing out from the crowd relating to the opposition here, it is little wonder that the Godolphin raider has been offered this event in which to attend school for the first time.  Whether Charlie’s March foal can get on terms with John Gosden’s impressive debut winner is another matter entirely though in receipt of seven pounds from the favourite, there may not be a great deal of daylight between the pair as they cross the line.

Favourite factor: Only three (4/5, 7/4 & 15/8) favourites have won during the last eleven, whilst three 25/1 winners have been record during the last eight contests.

 

1.20: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a five timer and with PROMISING RUN representing Saeed Bin Suroor (last three runners have won), the trend could be extended.  That said, MUFFRI‘HA won this event in facile fashion last year and coming to the party almost on identical terms relating to the official mark and weight, it seems inconceivable that James Doyle’s mount could finish out of the frame.  The 3/3 course record of SIMPLY ME demands attention, even as one of the complete outsiders in the field.

Favourite factor:  Last year’s successful 5/4 market leader (Muffri’Ha) ended a drought which had lasted five years.  That said, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, albeit there were a trio of winners returned at price.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Muffri’Ha

3/3—Simply Me

2/4—Somethingthrilling

 

1.50: This is a really interesting contest with the seven course winners in the field boasting an aggregate strike rate of 27% on the Polytack surface at Lingfield.  Four-year-olds have secured six contests during the last decade with BOBBIE WHEELER hopefully proving to be the best of the trio of vintage representatives on this occasion.  EASY TIGER might prove to be the pick of the relevant course winners, whilst SACRED ACT completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, the top priced winner being returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Mutawathed

5/19—Alfred Hutchinson

1/3—Miracle Of Medinah

1/5--Baracouda Boy

3/8—Mr Bossy Boots

3/15—Shyron

2/4—Easy Tiger

 

2.25: Three-year-olds lead four-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten renewals, with six junior runners having been declared this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRIBBS CAUSEWAY, VAL DE MARNE and MELODIC MOTION.  The middle named French raider will represent Placepot value for money as overseas raiders invariably do whatever their form, rivals and or class of contest.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites has finished in the frame.  Going back a little further in time however, it’s only fair to report that three of the last eight contests were secured by market leaders.

Record of course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Cribbs Causeway

 

2.55: Three of the last five contests have been won by three-year-olds, whilst all ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum weight of 9-2.  Six junior raiders have been entered this time around, with your truly siding with the likes of MISS PACIFIC, UNIT OF ASSESSMENT and LUXFORD at the time of writing.  The trio are listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten renewals have been won by horses sent off at a top price of 8/1 during which time, three (3/1, 15/8 & 13/8) favourites prevailed.  Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last decade.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Rum Swizzle

3/27—Shifting Star

1/8—Silver Dixie

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Thursday alongside their ratios on Lingfield’s A/W track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

3 runners—Ralph Beckett (5/20 – loss of 7 points)

3—Patrick Chamings (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

3—David Evans (1/60 – loss of 50 points)

3—John Gosden (4/16 – loss of 1 points)

3—William Haggas (5/11 +4)

3—Sir Mark Prescott (2/14 +1)

3—Marcus Tregoning (3/6 +3)

2—Michael Attwater (7/44 +20)

2—Michael Bell (3/10 +3)

2—Martin Bosley (0/11)

2—Tony Carroll (5/36 – loss of 9 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/9)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/19 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (3/29 – loss of 14 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/14)

2—William Knight (2/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/19 – loss of 11 points)

2—Brendan Powell (0/4)

2—Amanda Perrett (4/31 – loss 16 points)

2—John Ryan (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

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+54 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £138.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £72.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £486.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 18th October

WETHERBY - OCTOBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £86.10 (9 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Plato’s Code) & 3 (Amadeus Rox)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Minella Aris), 2 (Work Du Breteau) & 5 (Cyrius Moriviere)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Hello Bertie), 1 (Alfiboy) & 2 (Atlantic Grey)

Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Katgary), 6 (Delusionofgrandeur) & 8 (After Hours)

Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Smooth Stepper), 1 (No Planning) & 4 (Just Mille)

Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Today Please) & 4 (Little Pop)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: With one of the winners being ridden by a claimer to offset penalties and with no support for any of the other runners transpiring overnight, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the chances of PLATO’S CODE and AMADEUS ROX, particularly from a Placepot perspective.  From what I have seen of the market just now, we could expect an absolutely massive Placepot dividend to be declared if these two horses fail to make the frame.  The obvious reserve nomination is Something Brewing who won at Hexham on soft ground at the firs time of asking, with a subsequent victory being posted on the level under these projected (good) conditions.  Karl Burke has his team in great form, though his raider Midnight Man would have to come on leaps and bounds for jumping hurdles to become involved in the finish.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Wetherby card given that it uses to be an event for maidens, whilst the category has changed from Class 5 to Class 4.

 

2.45: This is an interesting Novice Chase event which was won in 2015 by Twelve Roses who went on to finish second in the ‘Pendil’ at Kempton before closing out his season successful when landing (4/9) odds at Ascot in a Class 3 event.  Last year’s gold medallist was Ballybolley who has won three of twelve subsequent events, the latest of which was in Listed company.  Whether any of today’s contenders live up to that type of progress remains to be seen, though there was plenty to like about the jumping of MINELLA ARIS on his first start over the larger obstacles, albeit in an ordinary event at Southwell.  The worry regarding his main challenger WORK DU BRETEAU relates to the drop back in trip. The ‘dark horse’ in the contest is CYRIUS MORIVIERE though proven winning form over fences in my general rule of thumb in this type of event.  Daryl Jacob’s mount has yet to reach the frame in five attempts at this discipline, albeit I note that the seven-year-old was made favourite to win a Class 2 steeplechase at Doncaster earlier in the year.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite found a 4/1 chance too good for him from a win perspective, albeit the market leader secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  Last year’s even money market leader went one better to event up the score against the ‘old enemy’.   New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Cooking Fat (soft)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last sixteen renewals which suggests that this year’s lone vintage representative ATLANTIC GREY has to be considered in the overnight mix, even though the Twiston-Davies raider might struggle to actually win the contest.  More logical gold medallists in the field include HELLO BERTIE and ALFIBOY, one of eight Sue Smith runners on the card.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 16 favourites in this event have won, with 3/1-3/1-7/2-9/2 chances having snared gold in the other contests.  17 of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended study period, statistics which include 14 winners.

 

3.45: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 6-3 during the last eleven years in the Class 3 ‘Bobbie Renton’ event.  A winner of five of his fourteen races to date (3/7 in chase events), seven-year-old DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR is the only course winner in the race with that success having been gained under good to soft conditions.  I’m not sure there will be enough moisture in the ground for Sue Smith’s grand inmate to score but his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  The other seven-year-old in the line up is KATGARY who has been the subject of win and place support overnight, whilst AFTER HOURS completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last seven renewals of this event, albeit that three of the four jollies (joint favourites were returned last year) that failed to win their respective events finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—Delusionofgrandeur (good to soft)

 

4.20: All ground comes alike to Sue Smith’s ten-year-old inmate NO PLANNING who has won four times around this circuit, very rarely offering a disappointing effort if memory serves correctly.  Whether the ten-year-old can score following a five month break from the track is open to some doubt I guess, whereby I am adding stable companion SMOOTH STEPPER into the Placepot equation alongside JUST MILLY.  SMOOTH STEPPER has finished ‘in the three’ in half (6/12) of his steeplechase assignments thus far, albeit form a Placepot perspective, Danny Cook’s mount needs to finish in the first two on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Wetherby programme.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

4/7—No Planning (2 x good to soft – good – heavy)

1/3—Nautical Nitwit (good)

1/2—Smooth Stepper (good to soft)

1/5—Lough Salt (good to soft)

 

4.55: Thankfully all ‘dead eight’ contenders remain intact at the time of writing, especially as I have used up my quota of offering three runners in a race enough times earlier on the card.  Upwards and onward in positive fashion by suggesting that TODAY PLEASE and LITTLE POP will land the dividend for us if we have made it safely through to the finale of our favourite wager.  Seven-year-olds have won three of the five renewals whereby TODAY PLEASE gets the marginal call over Little Pop on this occasion.  Six months off the track when asked to carry 11-9 might just stop Nomoreblackjack in his tracks, though Sue Smith’s six-year-old representative is not passed over easily.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader in the Placepot finale following five contests, though three of the six favourites at least reached the frame (exact science).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Wednesday – followed by trainer stats during the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:

8 runners—Sue Smith (28/190 – loss of 69 points)

5—Phil Kirby (14/102 – loss of 6 points)

3—Brian Ellison (1/15 – loss of 11 points)

2—Karl Burke (1/12 – loss of 9 points)

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2—Micky Hammond (18/208 – loss of 70 points)

2—Alan King (6/35 – loss of 6 points)

2—Malcolm Jefferson (9/67 – loss of 16 points)

2—John Mackie (2/15 – Slight profit)

2—James Moffat (1/16 – loss of 6 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (15/77 –loss of 18 points)

2—Tim Reed (0/5)

2—Henry Oliver (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/36 – loss of 12 points)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £36.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £238.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: This is the replacement meeting for Bath which was abandoned some time ago