Posts

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.30 Kempton : Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Shade keen, chased leaders on inside, went 2nd at 9th, pushed along and one pace before 3 out, eased down when no chance with winner) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lillington @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Soft ground worth £9748 to the winner...

Why?

Three of the six on show here today have been off the track for some time (164 to 218 days) with the other three having raced as recently as 17 to 46 days ago and of these three, our 6 yr old gelding is definitely the form horse, having won two of his last three and wasn't disgraced in finishing fourth at Cheltenham LTO in a Class 2 contest 17 days ago.

He's now eased a pound by the assessor and takes a drop in class to attempt to improve on a chasing record of 2 wins and 2 places from 7 attempts (all whilst wearing a tongue tie), including...

  • 2 wins and a place from 5 under today's jockey Tom Scudamore
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in handicap chases
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins from 2 over trips of 2m-2m1f
  • and whilst he hasn't won on soft ground yet, he has made the frame in all three efforts to date, including 2 runs over fences.

His trainer Colin Tizzard is in good form too with 6 winners from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.02pts (+104.4% ROI) over the last week and whilst he doesn't run many here at "leafy", those that have been sent here are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 1.58pts (+17.6%) in NH handicaps since the start of 2016, from which Class 3 runners are 3/6 (50%) for 4.58pts (+76.4%), whilst Class 3 handicap chasers are 2 from 4 950%) for 2.76pts (+69%).

As I intimated above, Tom Scudamore is in the saddle again today and he's 5 from 19 (26.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+123.2% ROI) in handicap chases at this venue since 2010, including 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 2.93pts (+41.9%) over this 2m C&D and 2 from 6 (50%) for 8.35pts (+139.2%) at Class 3.

But today's main stats refer back to the horse and his recent form. The last two entries on his form line read 14, making him one of my 1-2/3/4 horses, whereby...

...Since 2013 in Class 3 to 5, UK NH handicap chases over 2m to 3m1f on ground deemed good or softer, horses who won two starts ago (ie the 1) and then finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 2/3/4 bit) last time out less than three weeks ago are 110/475 (23.2% SR) for 230.2pts (+48.5% ROI)...

These are essentially horses in good form, turned back out fairly quickly in the hope of getting at least one good run out of them before a rest. Of course, 475 chasers from one angle is too many bets to back blindly for most people, so let's break them down with today's contest in mind, shall we? If we did, we'd find that...

  • males are 102/442 (23.1%) for 20.7pts (+49.9%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 84/380 (22.1%) for 212.6pts (+55.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 36/164 (22%) for 138.7pts (+84.6%)
  • those finishing 4th LTO are 30/122 (24.6%) for 130.1pts (+106.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 24/87 (27.6%) for 92.5pts (+106.3%)
  • in November : 18/64 (28.1%) for 81.3pts (+127.1%)
  • and over a 2m trip : 12/47 (25.5%) for 19.2pts (+40.9%)

And from the above, since 2014, Class 3 males who finished 4th, 11 to 20 days earlier are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 70.7pts (+220.9% ROI), including 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 70.93pts (+709.3%) in November and 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 57.37pts (+573.7%) from 6 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lillington @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet & Coral at 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Klassique @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders on inside, smooth headway on inside over 2f out, led inside final furlong, quickened clear to win by 2.5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Like Monday's selection, I'm going to keep this fairly short, simple and hopefully sweet with a 7 yr old gelding who is admittedly on a lengthy losing streak (a feeling I'm familiar with), but has shown signs of coming into some form of late with a string of placed finishes, making the frame in each of his last six runs and has has now been eased a couple of pounds for his return to A/W racing.

He has run well (and won) in better races than this and he certainly gets the trip (placed in 13 of 21 attempts = 61.9% PSR), so I've no qualms on that score, but it's all about the trainer and jockey today, because...

...over the last 30 days : 

  • Trainer David Simcock is 10 from 46 (21.7% SR) for 10.9pts (+23.7% ROI)
  • Jockey Jamie Spencer is 16/76 (21.1%) for 5.9pts (+7.9%)
  • and together they are 6/11 (54.6%) for 16.7pts (+151.5%)

And to be honest with you, those figures would be enough for me on a poor day's racing to make this a selection. They do team up with two others today, including one more here at Lingfield, where Mr Simcock is 45/231 (17.9% SR) for 43.6pts (+17.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and the selection is reinforced by Jamie Spencer riding 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) of those 231 runners for Mr Simcock.

It's not an angle I've just discovered to be honest, as the market seems wise to it, hence the profits of 5.34pts only equating to an ROI of 10.1%, which is why we try to get in/on early. Of that 13/53 record for the Simcock/Spencer alliance on this track, they are 6 from 20 (30%) for 9pts (+45%) over 1m2f/1m4f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by all five firms to have shown their hand by 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.30 Sandown : Firmament @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 5 Handicap (AW)  for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last 11 starts, winning three times including two successes in his last three outings, concluding with a Class 5 win over a mile last time out nine days ago, taking his record over this trip to 23131.

He, like Thursday's pick, is trained by Joseph Tuite and as I went through his recent form and his general September form just two days ago for you, I won't bore you by repeating the numbers. If however, you need a reminder, those details are right here.

What I do want to look at is Mr Tuite's record at getting winners to reproduce their form and since the start of 2015, his LTO winners are 15 from 78 (19.2% SR) for 14.8pts (+19% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • handicappers are 14/66 (21.2%) for 24.1pts (+36.5%)
  • males are 13/57 (22.8%) for 28.1pts (+49.4%)
  • on the A/W : 9/34 (26.5%) for 5.07pts (+14.9%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 12/31 (38.7%) for 14.6pts (+47%)
  • and after a short 6-10 day rest : 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.68pts (+59%)

...AND...from the above... male A/W handicappers priced at 9/2 and shorter are 6/15 (40% SR) for 8.56pts (+57% ROI), of which those who ran just 6-10 days earlier are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.84pts (+161.4%)

...providing the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by more then half a dozen firms as of 6.55pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.25 Goodwood : Threading @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 9/4 (Chased clear leading pair until 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Doro 7/2 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner when last seen 43 days ago. That was a Class 5 contest over 5f and she needed pretty much every last yard of the trip, staying on strongly to grab the win in the closing stages to win by a neck, suggesting that an extra furlong today might help her, as indeed should a drop in class.

To date, she has won 2 of 3 Flat handicaps, she's 2 from 3 on Good ground and 2 from 2 in Flat handicaps on Good ground, whilst trainer Ian Williams' LTO winners sent back out at odds of 1/2 to 11/2 are 123/373 (33% SR) for 39.5pts (+10.6% ROI) over the last ten years, including of relevance today...

  • 5/6 yr olds : 59/165 (35.8%) for 38.8pts (+23.5%)
  • on Good ground : 39/104 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+36.7%)
  • on the Flat : 33/97 (34%) for 29.3pts (+30.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/73 (39.7%) for 20.5pts (+28.1%)
  • and over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 13/41 (31.7%) for 13.2pts (+32.2%)

Jim Crowley is in the saddle today and since 2008, he is 16 from 93 (17.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+62.5% ROI) on horses trained by Ian Williams, including of note today...

  • in handicaps : 15/71 (21.1%) for 75pts (+105.7%)
  • on the Flat : 11/61 (18%) for 41.1pts (+67.3%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 13/42 (31%) for 30.8pts (+73.3%)
  • at 21 to 45 days since the horse's last run : 8/32 (25%) for 74.6pts (+233.2%)
  • and since the start of 2016 : 9/25 (36%) for 34.25pts (+137%)

...AND...on Flat handicappers priced at 7/1 and shorter : 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.3% ROI), with a 7 from 8 record (87.5%) producing 29.47pts (+368.3%) over the last two seasons...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dr Doro 7/2 BOGa price available from SkyBet, 10Bet and Sport Pesa at 6.20pm on Friday whilst Bet365 were the best on offer at 4/1 BOG , but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.55 Uttoxeter : Notnow Seamus @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, 2nd from 3rd, led after 5th, well clear last, stayed on to win by 4L)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gainsay 4/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 5, Fillies Flat Handicap  for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Keeping it simple today with this in-form 3 yr old filly, who has won three of her six handicap races to date and her course and distance win two starts ago makes her the only runner in this field to have won at either the track or this trip.

Her 3 from 6 handicap record includes...

  • 3 from 6 under today's jockey Rob Hornby
  • 3 from 5 at this 7f trip
  • 2 from 4 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 from 4 on good to firm ground
  • 1 from 1 here at Lingfield
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

Her trainer, Jonathan Portman is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past 30 days and 3 from 14 (21.4%) over the last fortnight, so we know the yard is ticking along nicely.

And it's definitely worth noting that the Portman horses have won 5 of 9 (55.6% SR) on the turf track here at Lingfield this season, generating 10.4pts profit at an ROI of 115.5% and although that's a fairly small sample size, further encouragement is gleaned via the following...

  • 5 winners from 8 (62.5%) for 11.4pts (+142.4%) in handicaps
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 12.4pts (+177.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 6.4pts (+91.7%) with Rob Hornby in the saddle

...and when Rob Hornby was riding a handicapper at odds of 7/4 to 5/1 = 3 winners from 4 (75% SR) for 9.42pts (+235.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gainsay 4/1 BOGa price available from Betway & Hills at 6.50pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

6.30 Nottingham : Classic Pursuit @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Keen, prominent, ridden 2f out, faded inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Full Suit 5/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a winner here at Lingfield last time out over today's trip at Class 6 under today's jockey off the same mark as today a fortnight ago, albeit on Good to Firm turf, so despite a change in surface it does suggest she's in good nick.

The same can also be said for her trainer Archie Watson and jockey Oisin Murphy, as over the last fortnight Archie is 10/24 (41.7%), Oisin is 14/52 (26.9%) and together they are 4 from 4.

Over the past seven days, Archie is 4/9 (44.4%), Oisin is 4/19 (21.1%) and together they're 2 from 2.

Archie's individual record on the A/W has been fantastic pretty much from day 1 of his still relatively short training career and to date, his numbers are 73/321 (22.7% SR) for 53.1pts (+16.5% ROI) on the artificial surfaces here in the UK. That's every runner backed blindly : no filters! However, if you wanted to reduce the number of bets, whilst keeping today's pick relevant...

  • Polytrack runners are 47/213 (22.1%) for 53.5pts (+25.1%)
  • those last seen 4-20 days earlier are 42/166 (25.3%) for 57.9pts (+34.9%)
  • over trips of 9.5f to 13.5f : 27/101 (26.7%) for 80pts (+79.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 22/90 (24.4%) for 32.8pts (+36.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 18/62 (29%) for 10.14pts (+16.4%)
  • LTO winners are 16/62 (25.8%) for 1.86pts (+3%)
  • and those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 15/51 (29.4% SR) for 1.84pts (+3.6%)

Obviously the main factor from the above is the track itself, so of those 90 who ran here at Lingfield...

  • those that were Archie's only runner on this track that day : 13/38 (34.2%) for 49.1pts (+129.2%)
  • LTO winners : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.2pts (+59%)
  • under Oisin Murphy : 6/13 (46.2%) for 8.3pts (+64%)
  • and Oisin riding Archie's only runner on the Lingfield A/W track = 3/4 (75% SR) for 12pts at an ROI of 300%...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Full Suit 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

5.35 Newmarket : Pour La Victoire @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced keenly tracking leading pair until 3f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, kept on same pace and never going pace to challenge)

We end the month with Saturday's...

7.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

OK, I'm a little late with the write-up, as I'm a bit under the weather (hay fever kicking in) and my wifi signal isn't great today, so I'll keep it brief.

I'm well aware that I've backed this horse a few times lately, but I do feel he's due a win, plus I don't like the favourite here at the odds offered, so he's worth taking on today.

Our boy despite those recent defeats for us, has won 6 times within 30 days of his last run, has 5 wins over the minimum trip, 6 wins off a mark in the 60's and 4 wins at Class 5, so conditions won't be alien to him.

His trainer Simon Dow is 22 from 152 (14.5% SR) for 54.3pts (+35.7% ROI) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs during the last two years and these include :

  • handicappers at 17/110 (15.5%) for 70.9pts (+64.4%)
  • 6-25 days since last run = 16/76 (21.1%) for 90.7pts (+119.3%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter = 16/43 (37.2%) for 29.7pts (+69.1%)
  • Class 5 = 10/59 (17%) for 26.4pts (+44.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/27 (18.5%) for 8.5pts (+31.5%)

...and Class 5 handicappers priced at 5/1 and shorter 6 to 25 days after their last run are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 11.64pts (+129.4% ROI)...

Tom Marquand is in the saddle today and has enjoyed a modicum of success on Simon's runners, winning on 8 of 42 (19.1% SR) occasions for profits of 29pts (+69% ROI), from which...

  • male runners are 8/39 (20.5%) for 32pts (+82%)
  • handicappers are 7/32 (21.9%) for 35.6pts (+111.3%)
  • in 2018 : 7/28 (25%) for 20.5pts (+73.3%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 are 6/11 (54.6%) for 18.4pts (+167.4%)

...and male handicappers are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 22.1pts (+96.3% ROI) this year, with those priced at 2/1 to 9/2 winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.50pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th June 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Brighton : Roundabout Magic @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/3 (Never really got going/involved, raced wide and was beaten by 2.5 lengths)

We continue with Tuesday's...

7.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 5 fillies handicap for 4yo+over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner

Why?

Well, we've got a 4yr old filly here who I like for this contest for a number of reasons, so instead of the headline stat that I drill deeply into, I'm going to give you some snippets that would suggest a decent run is on the cards. (I could drill right down into the snippets, but I fear there'd be too much info and you'd get bored!)

So, we'll start with the filly herself, back amongst her own sex after a good effort to finish third in mixed company six days ago. That was under similar conditions at Wetherby when beaten by less than 2 lengths despite a slow start coming off a 239 day absence. All her best work was done at the end of the contest, so it's not unreasonable to suggest she'll come on for the run.

Since the start of last season, she has made the frame in 6 of 8 races, winning twice with 2 wins and 2 places from 6 at this 1m2f trip and her only visit here in the past was a course and distance success.

Ryan Rossa takes the ride today and claims 5lbs, he's in good touch right now, winning 5 of 27 (18.5% SR) and 3 of 14 (21.4%) over the past 14 and 7 days respectively and whilst they're not earth shatteringh figures, they're pretty good for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

In addition to recent form, Ryan is 12/83 (14.5% SR) for 46.4pts (+55.9% ROI) when riding for Richard Hannon, about whom I've several snippets in further support of my pick, but I'll just give you three for now, namely...

...last 2 years + Richard Hannon + Flat runners + less than 3 weeks rest = 138/826 (16.7% SR) for 225.1pts (+27.3% ROI), including...

  • on good to firm : 46/289 (15.9%) for 147pts (+50.9%)
  • females are 45/266 (16.9%) for 196.2pts (+73.8%)
  • over a 1m2f trip : 22/90 (24.4%) for 82.9pts (+92.1%)
  • females on good to firm are 12/85 (14.1%) for 132.1pts (+155.4%)
  • and females at 1m2f on good to firm are 2/8 925%) for 6.25pts (+78.1%)

...Richard Hannon + Class 5 Flat Handicaps + May to August = 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 120.3pts (+34.8% ROI) with those racing on good to firm ground winning 23 of 136 (16.9%) for 91.5pts (+67.3%)

...Richard Hannon + Lingfield Flat Handicaps = 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 8.88pts (+15.3% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 are 9/39 (23.1%) for 25.8pts (+66.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.02pts (+62.8%)
  • and over this 1m2f course and distance : 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.94pts (+227.7%)

...and that's more than enough to justify...a 1pt win bet on Fanfair @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, SportPesa & SkyBet at 5.25pm on Monday with some 9/2 BOG on offer from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2018

Friday's Runner was...

6.00 Doncaster :Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, led over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon hard pressed, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed at post, beaten by short head)

We continue with Saturday's...

7.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG 

A 7-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old filly in great nick winning twice and placing a further 6 times from her last 9 runs, mainly in mixed company and including a run reading 2231 this season and 2 wins/2 places from 5 at 5 furlongs.

A winner her over course and distance last time out (9 days ago) at her first crack at Lingfield's 5f and although she's up slightly in weight today, the fact she's only running against her own sex should make this a little easier than recent contests.

Form aside, she's also of statistical interest (which is why she's here!), since during the 2013-18 period, Class 4 to 6 runners who won over course and distance last time out, 1 to 10 days earlier by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 are 176/499 (35.3% SR) for 117.7pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, and these include...

  • on the Flat : 52/152 (34.2%) for 39.3pts (+25.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 58/150 (38.7%) for 54.9pts (+36.6%)
  • May/June : 31/72 (43.1%) for 41pts (+57%)
  • over the 5f trip : 20/64 (31.25%) for 20.4pts (+31.9%)
  • here at Lingfield : 27/58 (46.6%) for 48.8pts (+84.2%)
  • on Good to Soft : 17/48 (35.4%) for 24pts (+50%)
  • in 2018 already : 8/24 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+34.4%)
  • and on the Flat here at Lingfield : 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.3pts (+110%)

...and from the above...Class 5 / Flat / May, June & July = 12/32 (37.5% SR) for 17.84pts (+55.8% ROI) and this relatively simple (by SotD standards anyway!) approach...

...gives us...a 1pt win bet on Bellevarde @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

5.35 Chelmsford : Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG WON at 2/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Tuesday's...

4.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG 

A 7-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old Colt with 2 wins and a place under his belt from his last five runs, that include a win and a runner-up finish (that was LTO 5 days ago) over this course and distance and they take his record on the A/W to 5 wins from 20. That's decent enough, but with today's contest in mind, he has...

  • 5 wins & 2 places from 17 at this 5f trip
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 14 here at Lingfield
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 12 over course and distance
  • 3 wins from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 3 under today's jockey Tom Marquand.

Over the last 20 months, trainer Simon Dow's horses sent back out after just 5 to 15 days rest since their last run are 20 from 72 (27.8% SR) for 149.2pts (+125.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males are 19/67 (28.4%) for 143.4pts (+214%)
  • handicappers are 18/60 (30%) for 148.8pts (+248%)
  • on the A/W : 17/57 (29.8%) for 126.5pts (+221.9%)
  • those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO are 13/26 (50%) for 142.6pts (+548.5%)
  • here at Lingfield : 8/24 933.3%) for 82.1pts (+342.1%)
  • in the March to May period : 6/13 (46.2%) for 100.7pts (+774.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 26.93pts (+269.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.5pts (+217%)
  • runners-up LTO went one better on 4 of 8 occasions (50%) for 8.8pts (+110%)
  • and over the minimum trip of 5f : 2/7 (28.6%) for 10pts (+142.8%)

And with Tom Marquand taking the ride today, it's worth noting that he is 8 from 40 920% SR) for 31pts (+77.5% ROI) on horses trained by Simon Dow, a record that includes...

  • 8 wins from 37 (21.6%) for 34pts (+91.9%) on male runners
  • 8 wins from 32 (25%) for 39pts (+121.9%) on the A/W
  • 7 wins from 30 (23.3%) for 37.6pts (+125.4%) in handicaps
  • 7 wins from 26 (26.9%) for 22.5pts (+86.6%) this year already
  • and 6 wins from 11 (54.6%) for 18.42pts (+167.4%) on horses sent off at odds of 9/2 and shorter

And, from the above... Marquand + Dow + males + A/W handicaps + 2018 = 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 28.14pts (+165.5% ROI), with those sent off at 9/2 and shorter winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 6.05pm on Monday, whilst Bet365 went one better at 9/2 BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.35 Brighton : Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Led until halfway, soon lost place, eased over 1f out)

We continue now with Thursday's...

4.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 4,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

He's a 3 yr old gelding who has won both his handicap starts to date, both here at Lingfield over course and distance and both under today's jockey Dan Muscutt.

His trainer James Fanshawe is well known for being successful on the polytrack at not-too-distant Kempton Park, but he has fared well here too in recent years, despite not sending many to this venue!

In fact, since the start of 2015, he has been represented just 31 times in A/W handicaps here, but with 9 winners (29% SR) generating profits of 11.44pts (+36.9% ROI), it has certainly been worth his (and his followers) time.

And with today's contest in mind, those 31 handicappers are...

  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 16.44pts (+63.2%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 18.44pts (+76.8%) when running off a mark of 60 to 85
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+95%) from male runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 11.88pts (+84.9%) as 3 yr olds
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.76pts (+75%) when ridden by Dan Muscutt
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 10.3pts (+128.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.17pts (+52.1%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.7pts (+46.3%) as LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.79pts (+113.1%) at Class 4...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Brighton : Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Dwelt towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to lead towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Wednesday's...

6.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Target @ 6/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  1m A/W Handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7246 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner up last time out when only beaten by a length in a similar contest over course and distance 32 days ago. Since then the 4th placed horse (1.25 lengths back) Poet's Society has turned back out here and won.

Hope fully our boy can do the same as he's admittedly on a run that reads 0 win from 11 over the last 13 months, but with 3 top three finishes in his last five starts, a victory today would be a massive surprise, nor would it be out of turn, especially as he is 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 7 from 21 (33.3%) going left handed
  • 6 from 20 (30%) on Polytrack
  • 5 from 17 (29.4%) over a mile
  • 6 from 14 (42.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) over course and distance

His trainer Michael Wigham's own stats here at Lingfield are obviously aided by the above data, but he doesn't entirely rely on the one horse here, as since 2009, his Lingfield A/W handicappers are 18/113 (15.9% SR) for 58.6pts (+51.8% ROI), which include..

  • over 1m to 1m2f : 13/61 (21.3%) for 74.95pts (+122.9%)
  • at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/32 (21.9%) for 87.96pts (+274.9%)
  • and over 1m to 1m2f at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/20 (35%) for 99.96pts (+499.8%)

Now the above profit and respective ROI figures are a little skewed by a 33/1 winner that paid 80.3pts at betfair SP, but even if you took 47pts off the bottom line, the numbers still stack up well.

And finally, going back the run of 11 losses in a row for this horse, this can be offputting for many, but it's worth noting that since 2014, Michael Wigham's handicappers running off a mark lower than their last winning level which was more than 5 nut less than 15 races ago are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 10.96pts at an ROI of 25.5%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Target @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betfair, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

2.50 Hexham : PC Dixon @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting Abandoned : Waterlogged)

And now to Wednesday's...

4.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5,  5f handicap sprint (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has won two of his last four outings, including a course and distance success last time out, 43 days ago. That took his career tally to 5 from 22 at this trip, 5 from 14 here at Lingfield and 5 wins, 3 places from 11 over course and distance.

His trainer Simon Dow is 39/178 (21.9% SR) for 77.3pts (+43.5% ROI) with LTO winners since 2008, from which...

  • those who last raced 11-45 days earlier : 32/133 (24.1%) for 90.1pts (+67.7%)
  • during 2014-18 : 21/80 (26.3%) for 45.7pts (+57.2%)
  • and during 2014-18 at 11-45 dslr : 15/57 (26.3%) for 39.4pts (+69.1%)

Since the start of 2015, here on the A/W at Lingfield, Simon's runners are 27/175 (15.4% SR) for 168.5pts (+96.3% ROI), including...

  • males at 26/156 (16.7%) for 71pts (+45.5%)
  • 3/4 yr olds : 13/75 (17.3%) for 141.8pts (+189.1%)
  • Class 5 : 10/56 (17.9%) for 105pts (+187.5%)
  • over 5f : 5/25 (20%) for 6.8/6pts (+27.04%)
  • and LTO winners are 8/23 (34.8%) for 16.4pts (+71.4%)

And finally for today, Simon's handicappers who won LTO and are running at a track where they've previously won over course and distance are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 18.2pts (+60.6% ROI) since 2014 and from these 30...

  • males are 8/25 (32%) for 23.2pts (+92.8%)
  • at Lingfield : 4/18 (22.2%) for 7.04pts (+39.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 11.94pts (+108.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 10.26pts (+146.5%)

...whilst those racing over the same C&D as that LTO win are 7/24 (29.2%) for 10.96pts (+45.7%)... 

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.45 Wetherby : Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Prominent early, tracked leaders, led 12th, headed next, weakened 2 out and faded quickly)

We continue with Good Friday's...

3.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kachy @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 2, 6f Conditions Stakes (4yo+) on Polytrack worth an eye-watering £93,375 to the winner...

Why?

So, we have a 5yr old ungelded male who has finished 211 in his last three outings. The last two are his only previous all-weather runs and he won both over this course and distance, firstly at this Class 2 grade and then up in Listed class last time out almost 8 weeks ago and was ridden by today's jockey, Richard Kingscote, on both occasions. Based on these facts alone, I'd expect him to be on the premises once more.

His trainer Tom Dascombe doesn't really do the A/W as much as he does Flat racing, but has had 67 winners from 293 (22.9% SR) horses that he has sent here over the last 10 years and backers have been rewarded with profits of 99.1pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% and of these 293 runners...

  • Richard Kingscote is 52/199 (26.1%) for 96.4pts (+48.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 36/145 (24.8%) for 43.6pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 18/70 (25.7%) for 38pts (+54.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/31 (32.3%) for 43.8pts (+141.4%)
  • and in March : 9/31 (29%) for 7.1pts (+23%)

Trainer Tom also does rather well with LTO winners with a 93/367 (25.3% SR) record since 2012 that has generated 155.1pts profit at an ROI of some 42.3%, numbers that are persuasive enough with being broken down, but you know I'm going to break them down anyway!

So, of Tom's 367 LTO winners since 2012...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 71/258 (27.5%) for 154.6pts (+59.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 67/240 (27.9%) for 170.8pts (+71.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/111 (34.2%) for 23.3pts (+21%)
  • in non-hcps : 33/107 (30.8%) for 72.6pts (+67.8%)
  • over 6f : 27/86 (31.4%) for 76.3pts (+88.8%)
  • over the same C&D as LTO : 25/62 (40.3%) for 21.4pts (+34.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 13/60 (21.7%) for 32.6pts (+54.4%)
  • here at Lingfield : 15/36 (41.7%) for 9.3pts (+25.9%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/21 (47.6%) for 36.2pts (+172.5%)
  • and running over 6f here at Lingfield ie today's C&D : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.7pts (+97.1%)

And I'm going to finish with something more visual and less wordy/numerical (I hope!)...

To do this, please take a look at firstly the pace and then the draw tabs on the racecard for this contest. The pace tab will tell you that Kachy is set to attempt to lead from the off and the draw tab shows that 6-8 runner races over 6f here favour those who like to lead, especially those with a mid to high draw : our boy is drawn 5 of 8.

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kachy @ 5/2 BOG which was extensively available at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Captain George @ 4/1 BOG  8th at 15/2 Chased leaders, pushed along when switched right and hampered 3f out, weakened soon after.

We start the new week with Monday's...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG

A Class 6, 7f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding making his yard debut for Ivan Furtado at a track where the trainer doesn't come very often. In fact since the start of 2017, his record here in 6/7 furlong handicaps is 3 wins and 2 places from just 7 runners, so it can't be a lack of success keeping him away!

That 42.9% win strike rate has been good for 4.83pts profit at an ROI of 68.9% with those priced shorter than 7/1 winning 3 of 4 (75%) for 7.83pts (+192.75%).

As for runners on yard debut, Ivan's record is 10 from 61 (16.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with the following angles in play today...

  • handicappers are 10/49 (20.4%) for 32.9pts (+67.2%)
  • those who were unplaced LTO : 8/49 (16.3%) for 17.1pts (+34.8%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/35 (20%) for 17pts (+48.7%)
  • on the A/W : 6/32 (18.75%) for 20.1pts (+62.7%)
  • those with more than 15 previous runs are 8/23 (34.8%) for 37.9pts (+164.7%)
  • 5 to 7 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 34.5pts (+156.6%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/18 (27.8%) for 28.6pts (+159%)
  • over 7f : 3/16 (18.75%) for 10.6pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 1/2 (50%) for 1.41pts (+70.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, SportPesa & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!