Posts

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

5.35 Chelmsford : Spot Lite @ 7/2 BOG WON at 2/1 (Close up, pushed along over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Next up is Tuesday's...

4.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG 

A 7-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner... 

Why?

A 4 yr old Colt with 2 wins and a place under his belt from his last five runs, that include a win and a runner-up finish (that was LTO 5 days ago) over this course and distance and they take his record on the A/W to 5 wins from 20. That's decent enough, but with today's contest in mind, he has...

  • 5 wins & 2 places from 17 at this 5f trip
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 14 here at Lingfield
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 12 over course and distance
  • 3 wins from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 3 under today's jockey Tom Marquand.

Over the last 20 months, trainer Simon Dow's horses sent back out after just 5 to 15 days rest since their last run are 20 from 72 (27.8% SR) for 149.2pts (+125.6% ROI) profit, from which...

  • males are 19/67 (28.4%) for 143.4pts (+214%)
  • handicappers are 18/60 (30%) for 148.8pts (+248%)
  • on the A/W : 17/57 (29.8%) for 126.5pts (+221.9%)
  • those beaten by 4 lengths or less LTO are 13/26 (50%) for 142.6pts (+548.5%)
  • here at Lingfield : 8/24 933.3%) for 82.1pts (+342.1%)
  • in the March to May period : 6/13 (46.2%) for 100.7pts (+774.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 26.93pts (+269.3%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.5pts (+217%)
  • runners-up LTO went one better on 4 of 8 occasions (50%) for 8.8pts (+110%)
  • and over the minimum trip of 5f : 2/7 (28.6%) for 10pts (+142.8%)

And with Tom Marquand taking the ride today, it's worth noting that he is 8 from 40 920% SR) for 31pts (+77.5% ROI) on horses trained by Simon Dow, a record that includes...

  • 8 wins from 37 (21.6%) for 34pts (+91.9%) on male runners
  • 8 wins from 32 (25%) for 39pts (+121.9%) on the A/W
  • 7 wins from 30 (23.3%) for 37.6pts (+125.4%) in handicaps
  • 7 wins from 26 (26.9%) for 22.5pts (+86.6%) this year already
  • and 6 wins from 11 (54.6%) for 18.42pts (+167.4%) on horses sent off at odds of 9/2 and shorter

And, from the above... Marquand + Dow + males + A/W handicaps + 2018 = 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 28.14pts (+165.5% ROI), with those sent off at 9/2 and shorter winning 5 of 9 (55.6%) for 17.04pts (+189.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 6.05pm on Monday, whilst Bet365 went one better at 9/2 BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.35 Brighton : Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Led until halfway, soon lost place, eased over 1f out)

We continue now with Thursday's...

4.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 4,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

He's a 3 yr old gelding who has won both his handicap starts to date, both here at Lingfield over course and distance and both under today's jockey Dan Muscutt.

His trainer James Fanshawe is well known for being successful on the polytrack at not-too-distant Kempton Park, but he has fared well here too in recent years, despite not sending many to this venue!

In fact, since the start of 2015, he has been represented just 31 times in A/W handicaps here, but with 9 winners (29% SR) generating profits of 11.44pts (+36.9% ROI), it has certainly been worth his (and his followers) time.

And with today's contest in mind, those 31 handicappers are...

  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 16.44pts (+63.2%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 18.44pts (+76.8%) when running off a mark of 60 to 85
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+95%) from male runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 11.88pts (+84.9%) as 3 yr olds
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.76pts (+75%) when ridden by Dan Muscutt
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 10.3pts (+128.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.17pts (+52.1%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.7pts (+46.3%) as LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.79pts (+113.1%) at Class 4...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Brighton : Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Dwelt towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to lead towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Wednesday's...

6.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Target @ 6/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  1m A/W Handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7246 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner up last time out when only beaten by a length in a similar contest over course and distance 32 days ago. Since then the 4th placed horse (1.25 lengths back) Poet's Society has turned back out here and won.

Hope fully our boy can do the same as he's admittedly on a run that reads 0 win from 11 over the last 13 months, but with 3 top three finishes in his last five starts, a victory today would be a massive surprise, nor would it be out of turn, especially as he is 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 7 from 21 (33.3%) going left handed
  • 6 from 20 (30%) on Polytrack
  • 5 from 17 (29.4%) over a mile
  • 6 from 14 (42.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) over course and distance

His trainer Michael Wigham's own stats here at Lingfield are obviously aided by the above data, but he doesn't entirely rely on the one horse here, as since 2009, his Lingfield A/W handicappers are 18/113 (15.9% SR) for 58.6pts (+51.8% ROI), which include..

  • over 1m to 1m2f : 13/61 (21.3%) for 74.95pts (+122.9%)
  • at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/32 (21.9%) for 87.96pts (+274.9%)
  • and over 1m to 1m2f at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/20 (35%) for 99.96pts (+499.8%)

Now the above profit and respective ROI figures are a little skewed by a 33/1 winner that paid 80.3pts at betfair SP, but even if you took 47pts off the bottom line, the numbers still stack up well.

And finally, going back the run of 11 losses in a row for this horse, this can be offputting for many, but it's worth noting that since 2014, Michael Wigham's handicappers running off a mark lower than their last winning level which was more than 5 nut less than 15 races ago are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 10.96pts at an ROI of 25.5%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Target @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betfair, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

2.50 Hexham : PC Dixon @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting Abandoned : Waterlogged)

And now to Wednesday's...

4.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Class 5,  5f handicap sprint (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old colt has won two of his last four outings, including a course and distance success last time out, 43 days ago. That took his career tally to 5 from 22 at this trip, 5 from 14 here at Lingfield and 5 wins, 3 places from 11 over course and distance.

His trainer Simon Dow is 39/178 (21.9% SR) for 77.3pts (+43.5% ROI) with LTO winners since 2008, from which...

  • those who last raced 11-45 days earlier : 32/133 (24.1%) for 90.1pts (+67.7%)
  • during 2014-18 : 21/80 (26.3%) for 45.7pts (+57.2%)
  • and during 2014-18 at 11-45 dslr : 15/57 (26.3%) for 39.4pts (+69.1%)

Since the start of 2015, here on the A/W at Lingfield, Simon's runners are 27/175 (15.4% SR) for 168.5pts (+96.3% ROI), including...

  • males at 26/156 (16.7%) for 71pts (+45.5%)
  • 3/4 yr olds : 13/75 (17.3%) for 141.8pts (+189.1%)
  • Class 5 : 10/56 (17.9%) for 105pts (+187.5%)
  • over 5f : 5/25 (20%) for 6.8/6pts (+27.04%)
  • and LTO winners are 8/23 (34.8%) for 16.4pts (+71.4%)

And finally for today, Simon's handicappers who won LTO and are running at a track where they've previously won over course and distance are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 18.2pts (+60.6% ROI) since 2014 and from these 30...

  • males are 8/25 (32%) for 23.2pts (+92.8%)
  • at Lingfield : 4/18 (22.2%) for 7.04pts (+39.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 11.94pts (+108.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 10.26pts (+146.5%)

...whilst those racing over the same C&D as that LTO win are 7/24 (29.2%) for 10.96pts (+45.7%)... 

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roundabout Magic @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th March 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.45 Wetherby : Blakemount @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 9/2 (Prominent early, tracked leaders, led 12th, headed next, weakened 2 out and faded quickly)

We continue with Good Friday's...

3.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kachy @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 2, 6f Conditions Stakes (4yo+) on Polytrack worth an eye-watering £93,375 to the winner...

Why?

So, we have a 5yr old ungelded male who has finished 211 in his last three outings. The last two are his only previous all-weather runs and he won both over this course and distance, firstly at this Class 2 grade and then up in Listed class last time out almost 8 weeks ago and was ridden by today's jockey, Richard Kingscote, on both occasions. Based on these facts alone, I'd expect him to be on the premises once more.

His trainer Tom Dascombe doesn't really do the A/W as much as he does Flat racing, but has had 67 winners from 293 (22.9% SR) horses that he has sent here over the last 10 years and backers have been rewarded with profits of 99.1pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% and of these 293 runners...

  • Richard Kingscote is 52/199 (26.1%) for 96.4pts (+48.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 36/145 (24.8%) for 43.6pts (+30.1%)
  • over this 6f course and distance : 18/70 (25.7%) for 38pts (+54.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/31 (32.3%) for 43.8pts (+141.4%)
  • and in March : 9/31 (29%) for 7.1pts (+23%)

Trainer Tom also does rather well with LTO winners with a 93/367 (25.3% SR) record since 2012 that has generated 155.1pts profit at an ROI of some 42.3%, numbers that are persuasive enough with being broken down, but you know I'm going to break them down anyway!

So, of Tom's 367 LTO winners since 2012...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 71/258 (27.5%) for 154.6pts (+59.9%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 67/240 (27.9%) for 170.8pts (+71.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/111 (34.2%) for 23.3pts (+21%)
  • in non-hcps : 33/107 (30.8%) for 72.6pts (+67.8%)
  • over 6f : 27/86 (31.4%) for 76.3pts (+88.8%)
  • over the same C&D as LTO : 25/62 (40.3%) for 21.4pts (+34.5%)
  • at Class 2 : 13/60 (21.7%) for 32.6pts (+54.4%)
  • here at Lingfield : 15/36 (41.7%) for 9.3pts (+25.9%)
  • 5 yr olds are 10/21 (47.6%) for 36.2pts (+172.5%)
  • and running over 6f here at Lingfield ie today's C&D : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.7pts (+97.1%)

And I'm going to finish with something more visual and less wordy/numerical (I hope!)...

To do this, please take a look at firstly the pace and then the draw tabs on the racecard for this contest. The pace tab will tell you that Kachy is set to attempt to lead from the off and the draw tab shows that 6-8 runner races over 6f here favour those who like to lead, especially those with a mid to high draw : our boy is drawn 5 of 8.

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kachy @ 5/2 BOG which was extensively available at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Captain George @ 4/1 BOG  8th at 15/2 Chased leaders, pushed along when switched right and hampered 3f out, weakened soon after.

We start the new week with Monday's...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG

A Class 6, 7f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding making his yard debut for Ivan Furtado at a track where the trainer doesn't come very often. In fact since the start of 2017, his record here in 6/7 furlong handicaps is 3 wins and 2 places from just 7 runners, so it can't be a lack of success keeping him away!

That 42.9% win strike rate has been good for 4.83pts profit at an ROI of 68.9% with those priced shorter than 7/1 winning 3 of 4 (75%) for 7.83pts (+192.75%).

As for runners on yard debut, Ivan's record is 10 from 61 (16.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with the following angles in play today...

  • handicappers are 10/49 (20.4%) for 32.9pts (+67.2%)
  • those who were unplaced LTO : 8/49 (16.3%) for 17.1pts (+34.8%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/35 (20%) for 17pts (+48.7%)
  • on the A/W : 6/32 (18.75%) for 20.1pts (+62.7%)
  • those with more than 15 previous runs are 8/23 (34.8%) for 37.9pts (+164.7%)
  • 5 to 7 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 34.5pts (+156.6%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/18 (27.8%) for 28.6pts (+159%)
  • over 7f : 3/16 (18.75%) for 10.6pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 1/2 (50%) for 1.41pts (+70.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, SportPesa & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Captain George @ 4/1 BOG  8th at 15/2 Chased leaders, pushed along when switched right and hampered 3f out, weakened soon after.

We start the new week with Monday's...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG

A Class 6, 7f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding making his yard debut for Ivan Furtado at a track where the trainer doesn't come very often. In fact since the start of 2017, his record here in 6/7 furlong handicaps is 3 wins and 2 places from just 7 runners, so it can't be a lack of success keeping him away!

That 42.9% win strike rate has been good for 4.83pts profit at an ROI of 68.9% with those priced shorter than 7/1 winning 3 of 4 (75%) for 7.83pts (+192.75%).

As for runners on yard debut, Ivan's record is 10 from 61 (16.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+34.3% ROI) with the following angles in play today...

  • handicappers are 10/49 (20.4%) for 32.9pts (+67.2%)
  • those who were unplaced LTO : 8/49 (16.3%) for 17.1pts (+34.8%)
  • over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs : 7/35 (20%) for 17pts (+48.7%)
  • on the A/W : 6/32 (18.75%) for 20.1pts (+62.7%)
  • those with more than 15 previous runs are 8/23 (34.8%) for 37.9pts (+164.7%)
  • 5 to 7 yr olds are 7/22 (31.8%) for 34.5pts (+156.6%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/18 (27.8%) for 28.6pts (+159%)
  • over 7f : 3/16 (18.75%) for 10.6pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 1/2 (50%) for 1.41pts (+70.5%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Merdon Castle @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, SportPesa & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2018

Saturday's Result :

7.15 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 Tracked leaders, every chance from over 1f out, and throughout final furlong, hard driven to lead close home, getting up by a short head.

We start the new week with Monday's...

3.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 2m3.5f handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £12,512 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old has won three of fifteen handicap hurdle contests to date which is a decent enough return to make me initially interested. Of those fifteen races, he is...

  • 3 from 14 wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins and 2 places from nine soft or heavy ground runs
  • 2 from 6 with today's jockey Harry Reed
  • 2 wins and a place from five, 16-30 days after his last run
  • 1 from 1 on heavy...

...all of which are, of course, applicable today.

Now I'll turn to his trainer, Chris Gordon, who by anyone's standards isn't actually what you'd call prolific, but blindly backing his handicap hurdlers has been a profitable venture in nine of the last ten years including 2018 so far. In fact, backing all of them would have given you 88 winners from 760 bets and whilst an 11.6% strike rate isn't earth shattering, the returns of 309.6pts represent some 40.7% of stakes invested!

Of those 760 handicap hurdlers...

  • males are 71/607 (11.7%) for 295.7pts (+48.7%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 49/420 (11.7%) for 282.9pts (+67.3%)
  • from March to September inclusive : 57/273 (15.3%) for 279.9pts (+75%)
  • 9 yr olds are 12/67 (17.9%) for 60.7pts (+90.6%)
  • whilst today's jockey Harry Reed is 4/15 (26.7%) for 38pts (+253%)

I fully appreciate that 70-odd bets a year from one angle might well be too much for some/many of you, so if you wanted a less frequent micro based around these horses, you could try...

...Chris Gordon / handicap hurdlers / males / March to September / 6-30 days since run and this gives 38 winners from 181 for 251.1pts vastly improving both the SR (to 21%) and the ROI (to 138.7%) from our original stat. Of these 181 from the new micro, 4-9 yr olds are 37/169 (21.9%) for 259.34pts (+153.5%) with 8 winners from 29 (27.6% SR) producing 33.26pts (+114.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 alone!

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from Betfred, Betway, Skybet & Totesport at 5.35pm on Sunday, whilst those able to do so, could take 10/3 BOG from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2018

Saturday's Result :

7.15 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 3/1 BOG WON at 7/2 Tracked leaders, every chance from over 1f out, and throughout final furlong, hard driven to lead close home, getting up by a short head.

We start the new week with Monday's...

3.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 2, 2m3.5f handicap hurdle on heavy ground worth £12,512 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old has won three of fifteen handicap hurdle contests to date which is a decent enough return to make me initially interested. Of those fifteen races, he is...

  • 3 from 14 wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 from 13 going left handed
  • 3 wins and 2 places from nine soft or heavy ground runs
  • 2 from 6 with today's jockey Harry Reed
  • 2 wins and a place from five, 16-30 days after his last run
  • 1 from 1 on heavy...

...all of which are, of course, applicable today.

Now I'll turn to his trainer, Chris Gordon, who by anyone's standards isn't actually what you'd call prolific, but blindly backing his handicap hurdlers has been a profitable venture in nine of the last ten years including 2018 so far. In fact, backing all of them would have given you 88 winners from 760 bets and whilst an 11.6% strike rate isn't earth shattering, the returns of 309.6pts represent some 40.7% of stakes invested!

Of those 760 handicap hurdlers...

  • males are 71/607 (11.7%) for 295.7pts (+48.7%)
  • 16-45 days since last run : 49/420 (11.7%) for 282.9pts (+67.3%)
  • from March to September inclusive : 57/273 (15.3%) for 279.9pts (+75%)
  • 9 yr olds are 12/67 (17.9%) for 60.7pts (+90.6%)
  • whilst today's jockey Harry Reed is 4/15 (26.7%) for 38pts (+253%)

I fully appreciate that 70-odd bets a year from one angle might well be too much for some/many of you, so if you wanted a less frequent micro based around these horses, you could try...

...Chris Gordon / handicap hurdlers / males / March to September / 6-30 days since run and this gives 38 winners from 181 for 251.1pts vastly improving both the SR (to 21%) and the ROI (to 138.7%) from our original stat. Of these 181 from the new micro, 4-9 yr olds are 37/169 (21.9%) for 259.34pts (+153.5%) with 8 winners from 29 (27.6% SR) producing 33.26pts (+114.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 alone!

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from Betfred, Betway, Skybet & Totesport at 5.35pm on Sunday, whilst those able to do so, could take 10/3 BOG from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2018

Thursday's Result :

5.15 Newcastle : Oriental Lilly @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

We try again to start the new month with Friday's...

4.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Take The Helm @ 13/2 BOG

A Class 2, 7f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £11,972 to the winner...

Why?

More on this in due course...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Take The Helm @ 13/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2018

Monday's Result :

3.15 Ayr : Skipthescales @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 In rear, outpaced after 4 out and well beaten (24L)...

Next up is Tuesday's...

3.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emenem @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 1m2f handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner over course and distance two starts ago, but was subsequently beaten by 1.5 lengths last time out stepped up in class nine weeks ago. Back down ion grade and returned to more favourable conditions, I'd expect him to go well again.

He currently has four wins and four placed finishes from eleven runs on the A/W and with today's contest in mind, his record in those eleven starts include...

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 8 on polytrack
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 6 going left handed
  • 4 wins from 6 priced below 9/2
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at 1m2f
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at Lingfield
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over course and distance
  • and 2 wins from 2 races of just 1-7 runners.

Trainer Simon Dow only had three runners in the last week, but with two winners he can be classed as being in some kind of decent form and will be hopeful of improving an already good record on this track, which has seen him land 25 winners from 166 runners (15.1% SR) for 169.2pts (+101.9% ROI) on the polytrack here at Lingfield since the start of 2015.

Furthermore, since the start of 2013, his A/W handicappers taking a drop in class are 22/126 (17.5% SR) for 45.25pts (+35.9% ROI), from which...

  • those dropping down 1 class are 18/103 (17.5%) for 53.6pts (+52.1%)
  • here at Lingfield : 12/54 (22.2%) for 43pts (+79.7%)
  • and those ridden by Tom Marquand : 2/6 (33.3%) for 22.42pts (+373.7%)

...giving uss...a 1pt win bet on Emenem @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair, Betway & Paddy Power at 4.50pm on Monday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 3/1 BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.50 Exeter : Thomas Patrick @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 I'll add the report later...

Next up is Saturday's...

3.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Goring @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 2, 1m handicap on polytrack worth £11.972 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has won 4 of his last 6 races, including his last three on the bounce. His results here on the A/W at Lingfield read 2111, including a perfect 3 from 3 record over course and distance.

So far, on the A/W, he's 3 from 4 wearing a visor (3/3 here), 2 from 3 under jockey Charlie Bishop (all here) and 2 from 2 at Class 2 (both here).

His trainer Eve Johnson Houghton is 16/100 916% SR) for 26.2pts (+26.2% ROI) in Lingfield A/W handicaps since the start of 2103 and amongst this "ton" of runners...

  • those racing over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs are 11/67 (16.4%) for 30.34pts (+45.3%)
  • those last seen 21 to 60 days ago are 9/44 (20.5%) for 50.54pts (+114.9%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 : 11/43 (25.6%) for 11.69pts (+27.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/16 (50%) for 37.16pts (+232.3%)
  • those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 3/11 (27.3%) for 17.8pts (+161.9%)
  • and at Class 2 : 3/5 960%) for 11.36pts (+227.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Goring @ 5/2 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 6.00pm on friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2018

Friday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra late on...

Next up is Saturday's...

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 4, 5f A/W handicap on polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner...

Why?

One of just two course and distance winners in the race, this 9 yr old gelding has won 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) A/W contests to date, including...

  • 5/22 at 5f, 5/21 in fields of 8-11 and 4/13 off a mark of 61-80
  • 5/12 here at Lingfield and 4/10 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • 4/8 over C&D, 4/8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter and 2/5 in February

His trainer David Griffiths has saddled up 12 winners from 78 (15.4% SR) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2012, from which...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 10/37 927%) for 34.46pts (+93.1%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/31 (25.8%) for 30.15pts (+97.3%)
  • Class 4/5 runners over 5/6 furlongs are 8/18 (44.4%%) for 43.1pts (+239.7%)
  • and Class 4 runners at 5f : 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.7pts (+285.3%)

And since the start of 2015, David's runners racing again just 3 to 10 days after their last run are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 28.6pts (+34.3% ROI), including...

  • handicappers : 22/109 (20.2%) for 33.6pts (+30.8%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 13/76 (17.1%) for 21.6pts (+28.4%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/39 (28.2%) for 28.2pts (+72.4%)

AND...5f handicappers who were unplaced LTO 3 to 10 days earlier are 5/22 (22.7%) for 11.8pts (+53.7% ROI)

The final piece of the jigsaw comes from our very own industry-leading interactive race card, which tells me that in fields of 8-11 over 5f on the A/W here at Lingfield, it is most profitable to back runners who race prominently or lead. Our boy likes to be up with the pace and getting drawn in stall 1 shouldn't hurt his chances either.

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th February 2018

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Leicester : Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/11 Jumped left at times, led until 2nd, prominent, every chance 4 out, weakened before mistake last...

Next up is Friday's...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 6, 2m A/W handicap chase on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won last time out, 4 weeks ago on this track on his yard debut for Charlie Mann and ridden for the first time by Fran Berry who is back on board today. He now returns to attempt to take his Lingfield record to 3 from 3, whilst in the process he could improve the following stats relating to his new trainer...

1.  Since 2013, his handicappers who were his only representative at a track are 54/305 (17.7% SR) for 185.6pts (+60.9% ROI), including...

  • 11-30 days since last run : 38/189 (20.1%) for 170.64pts (+90.3%)
  • running less than 100 miles from home : 31/166 (18.7%) for 95.29pts (+57.4%)
  • LTO winners : 10/47 (21.3%) for 27.84pts (+59.2%)
  • on the A/W : 3/8 937.5%) for 43.69pts (+546.1%)

2.  Since 2012, Charlies LTO winners are 25/114 (21.9%) for 41.3pts (+36.2% ROI), with those last seen 16 to 120 days earlier winning 19 of 71 (26.8%) for 43.2pts (+60.8%)

3.  His record in A/W handicaps is currently 4/25 (16% SR) for 51.73pts (+235.1% ROI)

...and this pared down approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2018

Thursday's Result :

3.35 Wincanton : Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Held up, not always fluent, headway on outside 7th, 2nd from next, led before 3 out, headed before mistake last, no extra and beaten by seven lengths...

We continue with Friday's...

4.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices' Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?

My initial interest came from the Horses for Courses report that told me this horse had won 3 times from 8 starts here at Lingfield, including a 1 from 2 record over course and distance and then took it from there, finding that...

...trainer Malcolm Saunders' handicappers are 20/114 (17.5% SR) for 15.2pts (+13.3% ROI) profit when backed blindly since the start of 2017, including...

  • at trips of 5.5f to 10f : 16/61 (19.75%) for 22.4pts (+27.6%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 17/57 (29.8%) for 25.5pts (+44.7%)
  • at odds of 7/1 and shorter over trips of 5.5f to 10f : 17/56 (30.4%) for 26.5pts (+47.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/5 (40%) for 6.45pts (+129%)
  • and Class 3, to 7/1 and to 10f = 2/4 (50%) for 7.45pts (+186.3%)

Since 2015, on days when he's had just the one runner, Malcolm has 20 wins from 90 (22.2% SR), all in handicaps and producing 82.1pts profit at an ROI of 91.3%.

In that same 37 months time frame, his handicappers dropping in class are 16/66 (24.2% SR) for 58.1pts (+88.1% ROI), with those dropping in class winning 5 of 17 (29.4% SR) for 49pts (+288% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Easy Tiger @ 4/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Coral & SportPesa at 5.45pm on Thursday with Bet365 a little better at 9/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!