Posts

Wednesday's Result :

1.05 Chepstow : Play The Ace @ 7/2 BOG non-runner Meeting abandoned - waterlogged.

Next up is Thursday's...

2.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Corazon Espinado @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 6, 2yo A/W Handicap (Nursery) over 7f on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner...

Why?

Well, on a fairly poor day of racing, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with a 2yr old colt who seemed to be getting the hang of things on his handicap debut last time out. That was here under today's jockey (who claims 5lbs again) over course and distance three weeks ago when he was a half-length runner-up to one that got first run on him.

I'd expect him to come on for the experience and since that day, his trainer Simon Dow has had 4 winners and two more runners-up from just 11 runners, taking his 5-year record in A/W handicaps to 63/478 (13.2% SR) for 143.9pts (+30.1% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • males @ 54/393 (13.7%) for 118.8pts (+30.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 28/218 (12.8%) for 24.4pts (+11.2%)
  • 4-15 days since last run : 24/153 (15.7%) for 119.5pts (+78.1%)
  • Class 6 : 18/135 (13.3%) for 29.7pts (+22%)
  • over 7f : 16/111 (14.4%) for 64.6pts (+58.2%)
  • December : 15/71 (21.1%) for 89.3pts (+125.8%)
  • below 4/1 : 22/63 (34.9%) for 18.5pts (+29.4%)
  • with a 5lb claimer on board : 6/51 (11.8%) for 50.6pts (+99.3%)
  • runner-up LTO : 9/42 (21.4%) for 41.8pts (+99.4%)
  • 2 yr olds : 4/25 916%) for 10.5pts (+42%)
  • and on 2nd handicap run : 5/20 (25%) for 2.57pts (+12.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Corazon Espinado @ 9/4 BOG which was available from half a dozen different firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Result :

3.15 Lingfield : Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 Tracked leader until ridden just inside final furlong, kept on same pace.

And now we'll tackle Wednesday's...

3.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Attain @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner...

This 8 yr old gelding was a decent third here at this track just a week ago and comes into this contest with...

  • 7 previous wins at this trip
  • 6 wins at Class 6
  • 5 wins at this venue
  • 4 wins over course and distance
  • and 3 wins from just 9 within a week of his last run.

He was unlucky last time out when getting headed late on over 2 furlongs further than today, eventually just going down by a head twice to horses he was conceding 8lbs and 6lbs to respectively. He now runs off a mark 4lbs lower than his last winning mark and dropping back in trip, has to be feared.

Trainer Archie Watson is 4/15 (26.6% SR) over the last 14 days and backing all his horses blindly this year would have given you 52 winners from 257 (20.2% SR) for 17.1pts (+6.6% ROI), including...

  • at Class 5/6 : 44/181 (24.3%) for 50.2pts (+27.7%)
  • on the A/W : 35/155 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+14%)
  • 1-15 days since last run : 27/106 (25.5%) for 42.6pts (+40.2%)
  • ridden by Ed Greatrex : 16/72 (22.2%) for 11.8pts (+16.4%)
  • finished 3rd LTO : 8/39 (20.5%) for 8.5pts (+21.8%)
  • and on the A/W here at Lingfield : 6/36 (16.6%) for 2.17pts (+6.02%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Attain @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Tuesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Result :

3.15 Fontwell : Stoical Patient @ 2/1 BOG non-runner Withdrawn at lunchtime due to a change in the advertised going.

We attempt a second start to the new week via Tuesday's...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W Handicap over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,234 to the winner...

A 4 yr old gelding on a hat-trick after winning over this trip at Chelmsford 25 days ago and also here at Lingfield over course and distance almost 10 weeks ago. That C&D win was the only previous occasion that today's jockey Kieran Shoemark has ridden this horse, so they've a record of sorts to defend!

Trainer Amy Murphy might only be in her mid-20's and relatively new in trainer terms, but she has some good experience behind her and has been profitable to back blindly so far. Admittedly, she has only had 145 runners to date, but 19 winners (13.1% SR) have generated 59.9pts profit at an ROI of some 41.3% and these are impressive numbers indeed as a start-out trainer.

Of those 145 runners...

  • handicappers are 13/95 (13.7%) for 22.1pts (+23.3%)
  • on the A/W : 6/44 (13.6%) for 38.7pts (+88%)
  • in A/W handicaps : 5/37 (13.5%) for 40.1pts (+108.3%)
  • over this 5f trip : 3/18 (16.6%) for 27.7pts (+154%)
  • LTO winners are 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%)
  • here at Lingfield : 2/12 (16.6%) for 18.3pts (+152.5%)
  • over 5f on the A/W : 3/9 (33.3%) for 36.72pts (+408%)
  • on the A/W here at Lingfield : 2/9 (22.2%) for 21.3pts (+236.6%)
  • and LTO winners running on the A?W are 2/4 (50%) for 16.76pts (+419%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Entertaining Ben @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & Marathon at 5.30pm on Monday, with plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Result :

2.40 Plumpton : Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG 6th at 15/8 Keen, held up in last pair, pushed along after 3 out, plugged on, never on terms. Held up way too far off the pace IMO and was never really put into the race. Seems like trial & error tactics going on with this horse, as opposed to any real plan.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Short Work @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap sprint over 6f on Polytrack worth £4,690 to the winner.

A fairly brief back to basics style approach today with a 4 yr old gelding who already has 5 wins and a place from 6 starts over today's 6 furlong trip, whilst in the 5 races with jockey Danny Tudhope on his back, he has 4 wins and a place, so the task ahead should be right up his street.

He's trained by David O'Meara, whose best figures are admittedly achieved in the North and in Scotland, but there is a niche where he excels here too. And that's with runners priced at 4/1 and shorter on the A/W here. We are only looking at 17 runners in recent times, but with 9 winners (52.9% SR) producing 16.6pts (+97.6% ROI) profit, they cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that of those 17 runners, Danny Tudhope has 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) for 10.47pts (+174.6%).

My final point of reference is possibly normally one of your own starting points, ie the Geegeez racecards. And I'm looking at the pace first and it tells me that horses who lead fare best over this course and distance and our boy is one of three runners with the joint highest pace ranking.

These three "pacesetters" are drawn in 6, 7 and 8, so we're in the pace pocket and the pace/draw heatmap suggests leaders drawn higher get the best results, so from stall 8, we should be well placed.

...all of which points to ... a 1pt win bet on Short Work @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet & Sunbets at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Result :

4.00 Kempton : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Chased leaders, outpaced before 2 out, 4th and well held when awkward last.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £6,963 to the winner.

And an 8 yr old gelding who finished the last campaign in fine form with 2 wins and 2 places from his last five starts (14313). He's been off track for 8 months, as have many November runners and with regards to his stamina today, wins at 2m4.5f & 2m5.5f allied to a record of 2 wins and 2 places from five on Soft should help dispel any fears about staying.

His trainer, Neil Mulholland, already has 2 wins and 2 places from five runners at this venue this year (P3113), whilst jockey Tom Scudamore is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 16.9pts (+30.7% ROI) here since 2010, broken down as follows...

  • on males : 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.1pts (+50.2%)
  • on 6 to 10 yr olds : 10/34 (29.4%) for 30.4pts (+89.3%)
  • on ground worse than good to soft : 9/31 (29%) for 14.3pts (+46.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/31 (25.8%) for 22.9pts (+73.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.8pts (+63.9%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 22.8pts (+78.6%)
  • over fences : 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+165%)
  • at 2m3.5f/2m4f : 4/16 (25%) for 7.38pts (+46.1%)
  • and on horses returning from a layoff of over 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.73pts (+108.1%)

There's also the possibility that Arden Denis will go off as favourite and whilst blindly backing favs is a shortcut to the poor house, it's worth noting that this year, Tom Scudamore is 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 13pts (+41.9% ROI) on chase favourites, with handicappers winning 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 13pts (+48%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Result :

4.30 Leicester : Dream of Delphi @ 5/1 BOG Last of 9 at 5/1 : Missed break, slowly into stride, held up in rear, never dangerous...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

5.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 1m4f...

...with a 4 yr old gelding who was pipped late on last time out, finishing as a runner-up over this trip and at this grade just five days, beaten by a mere short head.

His trainer Ian Williams has got his horses running well right now and over the last 30 days, the yard is 13 from 50 (26% SR) for profits of 11.8pts at an ROI of 23.6%, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 11/44 (25%) for 14pts (+31.8%)
  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 13/33 (39.4%) for 28.8pts (+87.3%)
  • at Classes 4 & 5 : 8/23 (34.8%) for 18.25pts (+79.3%)
  • on the All-Weather : 5/18 (27.8%) for 3.3pts (+18.3%)
  • those running with less than 3 weeks rest : 10/16 (62.5%) for 22.9pts (+143.1%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 4/13 (30.8%) for 3.6pts (+27.5%)

Now, some of you might think it's a bit flimsy for me to base a pick for SotD upon a sample size of 50 runners and you might be right, so would 1073 runners be a more reliable pool to dive into?

We know that Ian Williams has done well recently with runners turned around fairly quickly, but more generally I do like to back quick returners on the A/W but as you'd expect, I have some parameters that need to be applied before placing the bets.

My criteria for my A/W quick returners are (and they look far more complicated in print than they are in reality!) as follows...

...AW handicaps / 5 to 16 runners / March to November / Aged 2 to 7 / Running at trips within 1f of last run / Beaten by less than 5 lengths LTO / ran in last 5 days...

And this has produced the afore-mentioned 1073 qualifiers since the start of March 2008, so whilst that seems plenty, it's really only just over 100 per year or 10 per month. And if you'd backed all 1073 qualifiers, you'd have found yourself 207 winners at a healthy strike rate of 19.3% : not bad from blindly backing them!

And if you'd stuck £20 on each of them, you'd be ahead of the bookies by almost £5,000 - £4962 to be more precise at an attractive ROI of some 23.1%. Now, of course, some of you will want fewer bets and with such a large dataset, there are going to be lots of profitable angles you could take, but I'm only going to give you a dozen!

  1. In fields of 6-14 runners : 202/1051 (19.2%) for 243.6pts (+23.2%)
  2. On Polytrack : 157/827 (19%) for 237.2pts (+28.7%)
  3. At odds of 13/8 to 8/1 : 176/787 (22.4%) for 245.6pts (+31.2%)
  4. Males are 148/761 (19.5%) for 134.2pts (+17.6%)
  5. At the same class as LTO : 133/642 (20.7%) for 208.1pts (+32.4%)
  6. At the same distance as LTO : 108/541 (20%) for 139.4pts (+25.8%)
  7. LTO runners-up are 81/324 (25%) for 62.5pts (+19.3%)
  8. 4 yr olds are 51/279 (18.3%) for 40.6pts (+14.6%)
  9. At Class 5 : 56/273 (20.5%) for 37.5pts (+13.7%)
  10. In October : 41/172 (23.8%) for 100.8pts (+58.6%)
  11. Here at Lingfield : 33/171 (19.3%) for 38.2pts (+22.3%)
  12. And those beaten by a head or less LTO are 17/44 (38.6%) for 33.8pts (+76.7%)

...but first... a 1pt win bet on So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfair & SunBets at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Result :

4.45 Leicester : Royal Melody @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Close up, headway over 3f out, tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on one pace, went 3rd close home...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Unified @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly getting a handy 4lbs weight for age allowance, as she attempts to follow up her LTO win from almost 11 weeks ago over this trip on good to form ground at Bath. Yes, she's switching to the A/W here, but Lingfield's track is arguably the quickest artificial surface in the country, so it should be quick enough for her, assuming she takes to it, of course!

She hails from an in-form yard run by Clive Cox, whose runners are 13/54 (24.1% SR) and 6/27 (22.2% SR) over the last 30 and 14 days respectively, whilst his record with LTO winners stands at 27/106 (26.5% SR) for 56.3pts (+53.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of interest today...

  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 20/65 (30.8%) for 44.3pts (+68.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 14/56 (25%) for 22.1pts (+39.4%)
  • females are 13/48 (27.1%) for 24.4pts (+50.8%)

AND...3 yr old females ridden by Adam Kirby are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 5.92pts (+31.2% ROI).

But wait, there's more!

Since the start of 2013, Clive Cox's A/W handicappers are 39/248 (15.7% SR) for 69pts (+27.8% ROI) wit the following of particular relevance here...

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 are 33/165 920%) for 83pts (+50.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 22/110 (20%) for 54.2pts (+49.3%)
  • females are 16/105 (15.2%) for 39.4pts (+37.5%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 19/104 (18.3%) for 26.3pts (+25.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 7/41 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+67.5%)
  • LTO winners are 8/34 (23.5%) for 10.4pts (+30.5%)
  • over a 1m trip : 8/33 (24.2%) for 38.7pts (+117.3%)
  • and on handicap debut : 7/29 (24.1%) for 21.6pts (+74.4%)

...all justifying... a 1pt win bet on Unified @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Paddy Power and Sky Bet respectively at 5.35pm on Monday, whilst both Betfred and Totesport were at 7/2 non-BOG. They go BOG on the morning of races and I'll be settling up at Sky's 7/2. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Result :

5.45 Carlisle : Rossall @ 3/1 BOG - 4th at 3/1 : beaten by just over a length...

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Transmitting @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Since the start of the 2015 season, Ed Vaughan's Flat runners are 26/137 (19% SR) for 100.3pts (+73.2% roi), with his handicappers proving far more successful at 21/98 (21.4%) for 114.3pts (+116.7%) and of these 98 'cappers...

  • on good to firm ground : 11/50 (22%) for 34.5pts (+69%)
  • 4 yr olds : 10/35 (28.6%) for 94.3pts (+269.5%)
  • 31-60 days since last run : 9/21 (42.9%) for 96.6pts (+459.9%)
  • ridden by Harry Bentley : 8/20 (40%) for 31.4pts (+157%)
  • over 1m2f : 6/18 (33.3%) for 36.4pts (+202.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 5/13 (38.5%) for 12.2pts (+93.5%)
  • and ridden by Harry Bentley here at Lingfield : 4/6 (66.7%) for 15.12pts (+252%)

...and enough in my opinion for... a 1pt win bet on Transmitting @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from Betfred, Betfair, Sunbets, Totespot & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Result :

5.05 Newmarket - Stone The Crows @ 3/1 BOG - 6th at 9/4 : In touch, headway over 7f out, tracked leader halfway until over 2f out, weakened over 1f out...

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A simple one to start the new week...

...with a 3 yr old gelding who finished third last time out 40 days ago. He was outpaced over a mile in a Class 5 contest that but now benefits from an extra two two furlongs (stays further than this) and a drop in class today.

Over the last two years, his trainer, Richard Hughes, has a 13.7% strike rate in Flat handicaps (38 winners from 278) and although backing them blindly only produced a very small (0.9pts or 0.32% of all stakes) profit, the fact that they were profitable at all gives us a solid base to work from, as in the context of this race, those 278 runners are...

  • 30/197 (15.2%) for 37.9pts (+19.3%) at odds of 5/2 to 14/1
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 22.8pts (+30%) at Class 6
  • 9/43 (20.%) for 41pts (+95.3%) after a break of 31-60 days
  • 5/30 (16.7%) for 13.8pts (+46.1%) over the 1m2f trip
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%) on the turf here at "Leafy"

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Skybet and 10Bet at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Saturday's Result :

5.05 Newmarket - Stone The Crows @ 3/1 BOG - 6th at 9/4 : In touch, headway over 7f out, tracked leader halfway until over 2f out, weakened over 1f out...

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A simple one to start the new week...

...with a 3 yr old gelding who finished third last time out 40 days ago. He was outpaced over a mile in a Class 5 contest that but now benefits from an extra two two furlongs (stays further than this) and a drop in class today.

Over the last two years, his trainer, Richard Hughes, has a 13.7% strike rate in Flat handicaps (38 winners from 278) and although backing them blindly only produced a very small (0.9pts or 0.32% of all stakes) profit, the fact that they were profitable at all gives us a solid base to work from, as in the context of this race, those 278 runners are...

  • 30/197 (15.2%) for 37.9pts (+19.3%) at odds of 5/2 to 14/1
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 22.8pts (+30%) at Class 6
  • 9/43 (20.%) for 41pts (+95.3%) after a break of 31-60 days
  • 5/30 (16.7%) for 13.8pts (+46.1%) over the 1m2f trip
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%) on the turf here at "Leafy"

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Skybet and 10Bet at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tuesday's Result :

5.15 Beverley : Clenymistra @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Tracked leaders, effort and every chance 2f out to over 1f out, not pace of easy winner inside final furlong.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.25 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamselle @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

So, we have a 3 yr old filly getting a very handy 11lbs weight for age allowance and she's still unexposed after just one maiden and one handicap outing, including a win in this grade.

She's trained by William Haggas, whose runners are in excellent form right now, with 15 wins from 50 (30% SR) for 22.18pts (+44.36% ROI) profit over the last fortnight and a similar 30% strike rate over the past week (9 from 30).

His horses also tend to go well here on the turf at Lingfield, albeit from a fairly small sample size, but interesting nontheless to see him have 15 winners from 31 (48.4% SR) for profits of 29.4pts (+94.8% ROI) over the last four seasons.

And although 31 runners is a modest number, they do already start to throw up some relevant trends/angles regarding today's pick, as...

  • at class 5 : 12/25 (48%) for 13.13pts (+52.5%)
  • at odds of 6/5 to 8/1 : 11/22 (50%) for 32.07pts (+145.8%)
  • females are 11/19 (57.9%) for 31.02pts (+163.2%)
  • on good to firm ground : 8/15 (53.3%) for 10.64pts (+70.9%)
  • ridden by Pat Cosgrave : 7/14 (50%) for 10.77pts (+77%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 16.56pts (+127.4%)
  • in 2017 alone : 6/9 (66.6%) for 18.04pts (+200.5%)
  • over this 1m 3.5f C&D : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.1pts (+158.5%)
  • and those with just 2 previous runs behind tham are 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.44pts (+140.7%)

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Mamselle @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Tuesday with plenty of acceptable 10/3 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Lingfield...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday's Result :

4.50 Chelmsford : Dark Side Dream @ 3/1 BOG WON at 3/1 Made all, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a half length.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.10 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rattle On7/2 BOG

Why?

Quite simple and straightforward today with a 4 yr old gelding who was a winner over course and distance two starts ago, before not quite seeing out an extra furlong 17 days ago when finishing fourth.

He's now back at the one mile trip and will aim to extend trainer Jim Boyle's recent fine form that has seen him land 5 winners from 25 in the last 30 days and 2 winners from 9 in the past week.

As for the stat backing up today's pick...

...3 to 5 yr olds who finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last out 16-60 days ago, having won two starts ago are 363/2044 (17.8% SR) for 407.9pts (+20% ROI) over trips no longer than a mile since 2012.

And of those 2044 runners, those racing over 1m are 103/622 (16.6%) for 159pts (+25.6%) with male milers winning 71 of 404 (17.6% SR) for 144.8pts (+35.9% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rattle On7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Tuesday's Result :

8.05 Huntingdon : Midnight Monty @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 2/1 Tracked leaders, ridden and every chance 3 out, kept on one pace

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hope is High4/1 BOG

Why?

May continues to be tricky, so I'm paring it back and going back to basics today...

I've picked a 4 yr old filly who ran a very creditable 4th place 22 days ago over this trip at Yarmouth, despite being off the track for 221 days prior to that run, so she has every entitlement to improve for the outing.

And the numbers?

Trainer John Berry's Flat handicappers in the 15/8 to 11/1 odds range are 30 from 122 (24.6% SR) for 93.8pt6s (+76.9% ROI) profit to date and in respect of today's contest, those 122 runners are...

  • 21/58 (36.2%) for 93.4pts (+161%) at 1m2f to 1m4.5f
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 37.5pts (+121.1%) at Class 6
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 21pts (+150.2%) at Class 6 over 1m2f to 1m4.5f
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 21.6pts (+308.2%) ridden by Josephine Gordon
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 2.17pts (+31%) here at Lingfield

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Hope is High4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.50pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Southwell : Crosse Fire @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Prominent, ridden over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten by just over half a length.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Make Music13/2 BOG

Why?

Well, on another day that's hardly brimming with decent statistical options, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with a 4yr old who has 3 wins and a place from just 5 visits to Lingfield (2 wins from 3 on the A/W) and has a 2 from 6 record under today's jockey David Probert.

She's trained by Andrew Balding whose runners have won 48 of their 280 A/W races here at Lingfield since the start of 2013 and that 17.1% strike rate is good for level stakes profits of 76.1pts at an ROI of 27.2%. These are decent enough figures to base a bet on, especially when I feel the horse is overpriced at as high as 7/1 (she was actually 12's at one point!).

More confidence is gained from breaking the trainer's record down into components of today's race, because those 280 Andrew Balding Lingfield runners have achieved the following under today's conditions...

  • over 6f to 1m : 27/170 (15.9%) for 115.6pts (+68%)
  • running 16-30 days after last run : 18/97 (18.6%) for 123pts (+126.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 19/96 (19.8%) for 73.3pts (+76.4%)
  • 4 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 35.5pts (+71%)
  • and at Class 4 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.8pts (+110.6%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Make Music 13/2 BOG which was available with Hills, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Coral at 6.35pm on Tuesday, but if you can, DO take the 7/1 BOG-plus on offer from Betway. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Newbury : Bloody Mary @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/4 Chased leaders, pushed along and outpaced 3 out, weakened before next

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Goring One7/2 BOG

Why?

A Class 5 handicap chase over 2m 7.5f on heavy (soft in places) ground and a horse who came back to form LTO, winning a Class 4 contest by 15 lengths at Fontwell 20 days ago, despite failing to make the frame in his three previous outings (more on this shortly!)

He's actually 2 from 3 over fences at Lingfield and although he's up in trip today, he does already have a couple of wins over longer distances than today. And whilst he boasts a decent 4/13 record at Class 4, he no takes a drop in class, which can only help, you'd think.

His trainer Anna Newton-Smith has 3 wins from 8 here at Lingfield over the last two years, all on ground rated as soft or heavy, but now to the horse, because...

...the three unplaced runs ahead of an LTO win are very important, as since the start of 2010 in UK handicap chases...horses priced at 11/8 to 10/1 who won LTO 11-25 days ago, but failed to place in any of their previous three (or more) consecutive efforts are 116/507 (22.9% SR) for 123.7pts profit at an ROI of 24.4%.

And to be honest, that's a robust enough stat on which to base a bet. However, I fully appreciate that not all of you want over 70 bets a year from just one angle, so in terms of today's contest, those 507 returners to form are...

  • 108/463 (23.3%) for 139.4pts (+30.1%) with an OR of 81-139
  • 89/359 (24.8%) for 130.7pts (+36.4%) over trips of 2m4f to 3m5.5f
  • 68/277 (24.6%) for 90pts (+32.5%) in the November to March (inclusive) period
  • 55/240 (22.9%) for 75.5pts (+28.1%) from those who ran/won at Class 4 LTO
  • 39/168 (23.2%) for 75.9pts (+45.2%) from those last seen 20 to 25 days earlier
  • 24/99 (24.2%) for 17.6pts (+17.8%) at Class 5
  • 18/66 (27.3%) for 25.6pts (+38.8%) from those winning by 10 lengths or more LTO
  • 16/61 (26.2%) for 17.5pts (+28.8%) on heavy ground
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 2.7pts (+33.6%) here at Lingfield.

AND...if you wanted to use the above breakdown to form yourself a composite microsystem good for around 10-15 bets a season, how about...

...those rated 81-139 racing over 2m4f to 3m5.5f in November to March after winning at Class 4 LTO? Such runners are 28/91 (30.8% SR) for 66.5pts at an ROI of 73.1%, of which...

  • those last seen 20-25 days back = 14/35 (40%) for 50.8pts (+145.2%)
  • won by 5-15 lengths LTO = 10/27 (36.4%) for 25.14pts (+93.1%)
  • on heavy = 4/11 (36.4%) for 11.95pts (+108.7%)
  • and here at "leafy" 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.55pts (+118.4%)

...suggesting...a 1pt win bet on Goring One 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.35pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.