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Well I Declare: 24th November

Well I Declare: 24th November

Well I Declare: 24th November

There's a busy programme of racing today and here's a reminder of Mal Boyle's preview of the action from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Lingfield and Wolverhampton on...

...SATURDAY 24/11:

Ascot:

General stats: Aside from Nicky Henderson’s great record at Ascot (39 winners during the last five years), Jamie Snowdon stands out from the crowd.  James has saddled three of his four runners to winning effect and Marodima (scheduled to contest the 3.40 event) was Jamie’s only option at the two-day meeting earlier in the week.

Two mile six novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Six-year-olds have won two of the three races to date whilst securing four of the nine each way/toteplacepot positions.  This is an impressive ratio given that just nine vintage representatives have contested the race thus far.

Grade 2 Chase scheduled for 2.10: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners.  Ghizao was Paul’s only entry at the five-day stage.

Bumper event scheduled for 3.55: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, securing nine of the twelve available win and place positions during the period.

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Haydock:

General stats: Colin Tizzard has saddled three of his last nine runners at Haydock to winning effect and the trainer held three options for Saturday’s meeting earlier in the week. 

Bumper event scheduled for 1.25: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer, whilst Donald McCain has saddled two of the last three winners.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.00: All five winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Betfair Chase scheduled for 3.05: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last four winners though as you are probably aware, the horse was each occasion was the brilliant Kauto Star.  Paul was responsible for two of the nine five-day declarations on Monday, namely Silviniaco Conti and Tidal Bay.  Four of the last six favourites have obliged.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: With stats of 35/105 in recent years, Nicky Henderson rules the roost at Huntingdon.  Record of favourites in non handicap events at Huntingdon during the last five years: Hurdles: 45%--Chases: 46%.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe is saddling plenty of winners just now and Tom’s record here at Lingfield in recent years: 26% strike rate--LSP figure of fifty-nine points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian continues to offer punters hope at Dunstall Park having saddled eleven winners from just twenty-nine runners at the track, producing an LSP figure of twenty-six points.

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

Stat of the Day 24/11/12

Stat of the Day 24/11/12

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

A bit of a head scratcher yesterday, I nominated Saunta at 17/2, which I thought was a decent enough price. The rest of the market disagreed and she was sent off at 14/1. She pulled very hard early on and didn't look like a 14/1 chance, despite not really troubling the leading trio. She seemed to be staying on again at the finish, but hadn't done enough mid-race to grab a place in the front three. She eventually finished 4th, just 3/4 length away from netting us a nice place return.

I'm staying on the A/W again today and heading towards East Grinstead for a Class 4, 5 furlong Handicap where nine runners are currently set to contest the...

2.25 Lingfield

When you begin to compile a list of notable trainers at the Lingfield venue, I'd wager that Tim Pitt wouldn't be very up that list, if he was on it at all! Yet, if we look at this record here this year, we can see that he has saddled three winners from eleven for a level stakes profit of 12.75pts with a further four horses making the frame.

All three winners came in handicap events, where he is 3/5 for 18.75pts with a record of 12121.

Today's selection is Tim's only runner: Sonko.

Sonko is developing into a bit of a specialist at 5 furlongs, where she is 5/18 with 6 further place finishes for a win profit of over 13pts, but even more relative to today's contest, she is 112121 over 5 furlongs on All-Weather for a profit of over 21pts and she's 2/2 over today's course & distance.

I don't normally pick favourites for SotD, but I think there's enough value in the price to justify this pick today and if she grabs the lead early on, she'll be very hard to catch and/or pass. She has shown in the past a liking for front running on these surfaces and I'd expect a similar tactic today.

She is up in class today, which means she won't be a really short-priced favourite, so I'm happy to take the 7/2 BOG widely available ( at 10.20am) for a straight 1pt win bet on Sonko. I'm using bet365 today, but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.25 Lingfield

Well I Declare: 21st November

Well I Declare: 21st November

Well I Declare: 21st November

Hexham, Kempton, Lingfield and Warwick come under the watchful eye of Mal Boyle today as he assesses the action scheduled for...

...WEDNESDAY 21/11:

Hexham:

General stats: Decent ratios are hard to come by at Hexham but Hobb’s Dream might be worth a saver if given the green light to contest the scheduled 12.50 event.  Neil Mulholland is a very rare raider and the eight-year-old will be attempting to maintain Neil’s one hundred per cent record at the track by securing his second winner!

Juvenile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 12.40: Six of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via six renewals (three winners), whilst the biggest priced gold medallist to date was returned at 7/1.

Class 5 handicap hurdle event over two and a half miles scheduled for 2.40: Six of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less.

 

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Kempton:

General stats: Marco Botti has his runners in fine form just now and the trainer boasts over twenty-two points of level stake profits at Kempton to date. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tobago (3.00) is saddled by Lady Herries (only runner this week at the time of writing) who boasts a 26% strike rate at Lingfield during the last five years.

12.30: Favourites have secured five of the last nine renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner was sent off at just 11/2 during the period.

1.00: Ten winners during the last eleven year have won at odds of 13/2 or less (four successful favourites), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Three of the five winners to date were returned at 33/1--33/1--25/1 whilst eleven of the fifteen available each way/toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses starting at 7/1 or more.

 

Warwick: ABANDONED

General stats: Jennie Candlish and Lucy Wadham both boast 2/6 stats whilst showing a slight LSP profit at Warwick thus far.

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for12.50: Five and six-year-olds have dominated this event during the last eleven years, five-year-olds leading 5-4 during the period with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a four timer.

Twenty one furlong novice hurdle event due to be contests at 1.50: Henry Daly saddled back-to-back winners of this race in 2006/2007, whereby Lord Grantham (Henry’s only option at the weekend) would be of interest if the five-year-old was offered the green light.  Perhaps of particular interest, given the fact that five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

National Hunt novice hurdle over two miles scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eight renewals and a 12/1 chance was the shortest priced vintage representative in the year that four-year-olds ‘missed out’.  Out of interest, an 18/1 four-year-old finished third that year (2010).

Three and a quarter-mile chase scheduled for 3.20: Six favourites have prevailed during the eleven years whilst the same number of gold medallists carried weights of 11-0 or more, as have ten of the last fifteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Trainer Stats: 20th Nov 2012

Mullins' Horses Are In Flying Form

Andy Newton has four yards from the flat and four from the NH to look out for this week...... Read more

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2012

Stat of the Day 17/11

Stat of the Day 17/11

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2012

Roger Varian is rapidly becoming one of SotD's favourite trainers and yesterday he added a winner and a place to his already impressive Wolverhampton non-handicap stats ( he's now 15/18 there!). We selected Ersaal at 18/1 yesterday and I know many of you got a decent price (judging by my email inbox!). It opened on course at 7/1 and was smashed all the way to 9/2 at the off. He ran a brave race, but couldn't get the win we'd like, eventually finishing 3rd, but when you're getting 3.6/1 for a place on a 9/2 runner, beggars sometimes can't be choosers! Incidentally, Roger's only non-handicapper that we highlighted, Yarroom, won cosily.

I'm staying a way from Cheltenham again today and looking at some more all-weather action. It's a lunchtime 10 furlong, Class 6 Handicapon the Polytrack. The going is, of course, standard for the 14 runners in the...

12.30 Lingfield

Whilst not the most prolific of trainers on display today, Jamie Osborne goes about his work at Lingfield quietly and consistently efficiently. 2012 has pretty kind to him at this venue, especially from an E/W punting perspective. Since the turn of the year, Jamie has saddled 13 runners in Lingfield handicaps and a return of 2 winners (15.4%) is satisfactory, but not earth-shattering. However, those two winners have helped him to a level stakes profit of 7pts = 54% return on stakes, which we'd all be happy with.

Yet, it's the E/W angle I'm keener to explore today, as it transpires that in addition to those two winners, a further six runners have made the frame for a place strike rate of 62% and many of them at decent prices too. In fact , backing all 13 runners this year on an E/W basis would have netted you 14.6pts at SP and we all know that we don't bet at SP! 😀

There's just one horse fitting that bill today: Resplendent Alpha.

Resplendent Alpha has been effective on both turf and a variety of all-weather surfaces and his record in his last three outings here reads 122 with the latter race being over today's Course & Distance, where he got off to a poor start but was staying well at the finish. He knows the course well, having competed here 26 times in the past. He's a four-time course winner, including one over Course & Distance.

He had a poor year in 2010, but bounced back to decent form in 2011 and this year, winning three from 21 and making the frame on 11 occasions. The 11 place finishes meant that E/W backers were rewarded to a level stakes profit of 17 pts.

Based on the E/W returns enjoyed by Jamie Osborne's horses here at Lingfield, coupled with Resplendent Alpha's own recent 50%+ place strike record, an E/W bet really does seem the order of the day. The Racing Post tissue had our selection as a possible 7/2 favourite, but the market disagreed at 9.30 am, where 10/1 BOG was widely available, so the play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Resplendent Alpha at 10/1 BOG, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.30 Lingfield

Sat TV Trends: 17th Nov 2012

Grands Crus in Action This Weekend

It's Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham, plus there is LIVE C4 action at Lingfield & Wetherby. Read more

Trainer Stats: 6th Nov 2012


Dalgleish Hitting The Back Of The Net....

This week Andy Newton has a trainer that’s currently operating with an 80% strike-rate......Yes, 80%! Read more

Trainer Stats: 31st Oct 2012

Colin Tizzard Has His String In Great Heart....

Andy Newton's got another bunch of in-form trainers to have on your side this week..... Read more

Well I Declare: 17th October

Well I Declare: 17th October

Well I Declare: 17th October

Kempton, Lingfield, Nottingham and Wetherby are our hosts today and here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts for the day.

WEDNESDAY 17/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Violet Jordan (2/4 at the track) saddles her course and distance winner Perfect Honour on Wednesday.
Lingfield:

General stats: This is the first meeting on the newly laid surface whereby readers are advised to give the course time to prove itself, one way or the other!
Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham held three entries at the time of writing at a track where the trainer has saddled two winners via just five runners. 
Wetherby:

General stats: Charlie Longsdon’s 43% strike rate (6/14) stands out from the crowd at Wetherby and with eleven potential runners on Wednesday, Charlie is obviously intent on saddling more winners at the venue.

Three-year-old maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Two of the last fifteen favourites have obliged, whilst nine of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.25: Nine of the last 12 winners of this handicap hurdle event have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst five clear market leaders have won via the last fourteen renewals, alongside one joint and two co favourites.  Fifteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-12 or less.  Nine of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event due to be contested at 4.30: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last 10 renewals whilst eight of the last ten favourites in this event have won, with 3/1 and 9/2 shots having snared gold in the other contests.  Twelve of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended period, statistics which include ten winners.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 5.00: Evan Williams come into the race on a hat trick having held just the one entry (One In A Million) at the four-day stage.  Two of the four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the finale, statistics which include one winner.

Trainer Stats: 16th Oct 2012

Dr Newland's Horses Are In Good Heart

Andy Newton has seven more trainers to keep on your side this week - see who they are here....... Read more

Well I Declare: 21st September

Well I Declare: 21st September

Well I Declare: 21st September

There's plenty of racing to keep us occupied today and here's a quick recap on the action planned for Ayr, Brighton, Lingfield, Newbury and Wolverhampton, as Mal Boyle previews...

...FRIDAY 21/09:

AYR:

General stats: Frankie Dettori (4/10) and Jim Crowley (3/5) are rare visitors to this part of the world and the two pilots have secured the thick end of an aggregate of fifty points of level stake profits.

 

BRIGHTON:

General stats: Roger Varian has saddled five horses at Brighton in total: 2YO stats: 1/2--3YO stats: 2/3.

 

LINGFIELD:

General stats: Rae Guest has enjoyed a purple patch of late and his Lingfield strike rate of 5/23 is backed up by an LSP figure of thirty-four points.

 

NEWBURY:

General stats: Ron Hodges (6/16), Ed McMahon (5/16) and Paul D’Arcy (4/15) are (respectfully)  ‘lesser’ trainers to consider, especially given their aggregate LSP figure of sixty points.

Six furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Fourteen of the last nineteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs)

7-11-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-7-10 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-3-2 (12 ran-good)

1-7-9 (12 ran-good)

9-12-3 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-13-5 (10 ran-good)

9-10-1 (11 ran-good)

6-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-10-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

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10-16-6 (16 ran-good)

1-6-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-5-11 (10 ran-good)

16-1-3 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

20-8-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

13-17-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

10-15-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

Class 3 twelve furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural winner scored at 3/1 back in 2007.  Three-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.

Nine furlong conditions event scheduled for 3.05: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium, whilst eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Juvenile Class 2 conditions event scheduled for 3.40: Marcus Tregoning does not saddle a great number of juvenile winners in a season as a general rule, whereby it is significant that the trainer attempts to win this race for the fourth time in the last ten years via two newcomers which were still in evidence at the five-day stage.  Four favourites have won of late (last year‘s 4/7 market leader was beaten however), whilst ten of the last sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs)

3-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-8 (10 ran-good)

7-5 (6 ran -good to firm)

1-7 (6 ran-good)

1-10-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6 (7 ran-good)

2-8-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-5 (5 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7 (8 ran-good)

3-2 (6 ran-good)

Seven furlong conditions event due to be contested at 4.15: Eleven different trainers have won this event during in as any years, whilst eight of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (five winners).

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-5-4 (8 ran--good)

6-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)

9-11-3 (11 ran-good)

5-9-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

6-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

5 (4 ran--good)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5 (7 ran-good)

Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed event) schedule for 4.50: Five renewals have slipped by since the last successful favourite was recorded.  Saeed Bin Suroor has secured three of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding five options for the race at the time of writing.

Ten furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the last nine renewals.  Only two favourites have obliged during the last decade, with six gold medallists having been sent off at odds ranging between 14/1 & 25/1.

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

General stats: Ted Durcan has had an up and down season, having ridden the runner-up in the Epsom Derby, whilst still struggling for rides for former top employers.  Ted’s record at Wolverhampton includes a strike rate of 23%, which is backed up by twelve points of level stake profits.

Trainer Stats – 19th Sept 2012

Al Zarooni Fresh From His Leger Win

This week Andy Newton’s got six in-form flat trainers to look out for, plus one high profile name you might want to avoid. Read more

Well I Declare: 5th September

Well I Declare: 5th September

Well I Declare: 5th September

Today's action comes from Bath, Kempton, Lingfield & Hereford: here's a quick reminder
of Mal Boyle's take on the day's racing for...

...WEDNESDAY 05/09:

Bath:

General stats: Roger Varian has saddled two winners from just five runners at Bath to date and the trainer held two options at the weekend. Urban Daydream (2.20) is now his only runner at Bath on Wednesday.

2.20: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite was beaten half a length by an 18/1 chance, albeit the William Haggas raider secured a toteplacepot position despite the surprise defeat.  If there is a hot favourite on Tuesday morning, you might like to take note of the name of last year’s winner which was…History Repeating!

2.50: Two market leaders have prevailed thus far via six renewals.  Four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.50: Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Four renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since the first two favourites of this event prevailed.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Suffolk based trainer Dave Morris potentially saddles two runners on the card and his 21% strike rate at Kempton (four winners) have yielded over fifty two points of level stake profits.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Two winners from just five mounts is the current ratio boasted by Kieren Fallon at Lingfield. On the training front, runners saddled by Alan Jarvis are worth a second look given his 30% strike rate which has helped to produce an LSP figure of thirty four points.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Richard Woolacott (2/3), Jim Best (8/22) and Rebecca Curtis (15/47) are just three trainers who will be fighting the closure of Hereford racecourse if their ratios at the track are anything to go by.

Well I Declare: 30th August

Well I Declare: 30th August

Well I Declare: 30th August

Mal's still away for a few days yet, but I've brought you a quick reminder of his insights on today's racing from Hamilton, Lingfield, Kempton, Fontwell, Hereford and Stratford...

THURSDAY 30/08:

Apologies for the lack of a main meeting on which to offer stats and facts.  Every now and then (because of Bank Holiday schedules usually), a day occurs when ‘new meetings’ generally rule the roost whereby no trends are in place….and this is one such occasion. Lingfield ‘ripping up their carpet’ did not help on this occasion!

 

Hamilton:

General stats: William Haggas has saddled five of his twelve runners at Hamilton to winning effect thus far, whilst Jeremy Noseda’s 2/5 ratio is worth noting. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Derek Haydn Jones boasts 3/7 figures in recent years, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of ten points. However, Roger Charlton record of 7/17 during the last five years makes for even more impressive reading.

 

Kempton:

General stats: The yellow and blue stars colours of Pearl Bloodstock have been prominent at Kempton in recent years, claiming eleven successes from just twenty-three runners.  The stats have helped to achieve a level stake profit of thirty-five points. The other positive factor is that the colours are easy to spot, even in a big field!

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) and Donald McCain (33%) lead the figures of the potentially represented trainers at Fontwell on Thursday, whilst Renee Robeson’s (2/8) runners might be worth a saver.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best will not want this venue to close down, given that the trainer boasts figures of 7/21 (eight points LSP) whilst John Ferguson’s rare visits have paid via 2/4 figures. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I hope I have alerted you to the training talents of Richard Woolacott in recent weeks and months and this is one of the venues to focus on given Richard’s 2/4 ratio.

Well I Declare, 22nd August

Well I Declare: 22/08/12

Well I Declare: 22/08/12

Today is Day 1 of York's prestigious Ebor meeting, but there's also action scheduled for Lingfield (Turf), Kempton (AW) and Newton Abbot (NH): a veritable smorgasbord of racing!

WEDNESDAY 22/8:

York:

General stats: I don’t like repeating myself in the same column but Darren Egan boasts level stake profits of thirty-five points via a ratio of 3/10 on the Knavesmire. 

2.00: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 whilst we still await the first successful market leader, albeit all three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions:

'Draw factor' (five and a half furlongs):

2011: 3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
2010: 15-16-8 (15 ran-good)
2009: 18-13-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

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2.30: Ten of the last twelve winners have been returned at odds of 7/2 or less (six winning favourites), whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years.  Nine of the last ten winners were drawn five or higher.

3.05: Ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last fourteen years (four winners).

3.40:  Four and five-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last fifteen renewals between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 8-3 in the process.  Seven clear market leaders have won this event during the last fifteen years alongside a joint favourite.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.15: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) whilst five-year-olds come into the race on a hat trick.

4.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals of this event, whilst securing seventeen of the thirty available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less.  Eight of the last fourteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include four winners during the study period.

'Draw factor' (ten and a half furlongs):

2011: 4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)
2010: 9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)
2009: 7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)
2007: 14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)
2006: 14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)
2005: 4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)
2004: 8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)
2003: 2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2002: 9-4-2 (9 ran-good)
2001: 16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)
2000: 1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)

 

Lingfield:

General stats: In case you missed the recent news, the Lingfield ‘carpet’ has been rolled up and will be ready to race on again in October.  There are not enough turf details available for me to give an accurate report.  I will keep a special eye on results to report over the coming weeks. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: For ‘new arrivals’ to this column, I am duty bound to offer Saeed Bin Suroor’s phenomenal 35% strike rate given that he has trained thirty-five winners at the venue during the last five years. 

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden eleven winners from just forty-five assignments which is a good ratio for one so young, especially given his LSP figure of thirty-eight points.  On the training front, Gary Brown (4/11) and David Bridgwater (3/8) are alternative options to the infamous pair of Henderson and Nicholls who generally rule the roost via sheer number of winners at Newton Abbot as you might suspect.