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Placepot Pointers – Thursday 16th November

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £61.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Cockney Wren) & 8 (Sunshade)

Leg 2 (1.55): 2 (Cervin), 6 (It’s a Sting) & 1 (Cervin)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Cresswell Legend), 6 (Black Sam Bella) & 4 (Haul Away)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 6 (Bollin Line) & 1 (Market Road)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Petite Power) & 5 (By The Boardwalk)

Leg 6 (4.00): 7 (Cubswin) & 4 (Pheonix Dawn)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: Although COCKNEY WREN is still a shade of odds on at the time of writing, money is coming in for SUNSHADE and it is worth acknowledging that Nicky Henderson has saddled five winners in as many years at this corresponding meeting.  That said, Harry Fry (COCKNEY WREN) has saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect and this pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Grania O’Malley looks booked for third spot at half decent odds from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged for the Alan King yard.

 

1.55: Stuart Edmunds has his team in fine form whereby it might not pay to dismiss stable representative LEGAL OKAY too quickly, as Stuart attempts to secure his fourth success with his tenth recent runner.  More logical winners to the untrained eye appear to include ITS A STING and another each way type, namely CERVIN from last year’s successful yard.

Favourite factor: The market got the second race right as well twelve months ago as the inaugural 7/2 favourite scored for the Tim Vaughan stable.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Go On Henry (good)

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have secured 19 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 5-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BLACK SAM BELLA and HAUL AWAY from the in form stables of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson respectively.  That said, Kim Bailey also has his team in fine form whereby the lone course winner in the field has to be included in the mix, namely CRESSWELL LEGEND.  It’s worth taking into account Kim’s raids at this venue this season which have produced a ratio of 5/8, figures which have produced 17 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Cresswell Legend (good)

 

3.00: I don’t like siding with ‘favourites’ but the top three horses in the market in the dead of night really do stand out from the crowd.  Irish raider MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE takes in a hurdle event for the first time but anything like the form he showed at Musselburgh when winning recently would be good enough to go very close in this grade/company.  Hat trick seeker BOLLIN LINE has been very well placed by Lucingda Egerton again, whilst MARKET ROAD represents Evan Williams who is second in the list to Nicky Henderson at this corresponding meeting in recent times on the three winner mark. The result might be best served from a Placepot perspective if just one of the trio reach the frame alongside two ‘rags’, especially as I have no compunction to become involved from a win viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

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1/1—Bollin Line (good)

1/2—Mr Bachster (good)

 

3.30: The strongest of the shorter priced runners in this event at the time of writing was very much PETITE POWER from Fergal’s O’Brien’s yard which has been firing in the winners in recent times.  Whilst talking about the popular trainer, I should remind readers what was said before the recent meeting at Cheltenham in that Fergal is very much the underrated handler at the track; before he posted two winners last month.  For the record, Fergal has twelve runners entered at Prestbury Park this weekend, five on Friday, four on Saturday and three on the final day of the fixture.  Back to this event, suggesting that BY THE BOARDWALK is the each way option if you want to shy away from odds of around 10/3 about the projected market leader.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.

 

4.00: Last year’s 4/9 favourite was beaten in the Placepot finale whereby you need to treat the race with plenty of respect, given that this is a juvenile event.  That said, Neil King’s Zamindar filly CUBSWIN won well at the first time of asking whereby the ex Roger Charlton inmate has to be included in the mix, especially with a claimer in the saddle who negates the penalty for the relevant success.  PHEONIX DAWN appears to be the obvious danger having run well over timber already. TAMAYEF is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly, having reached an official mark of 82 on the level, albeit six turf assignments have only brought about one silver medal to date.  Seemingly a better performer on an A/W surface, the other pair are preferred accordingly.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

3—Matt Sheppard (1/4 +4)

3—Evan Williams (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kim Bailey (5/8 +17)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (0/4)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2)

2—Kerry Lee (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: This meeting was abandoned last year

Chelmsford: £21.30 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £1,035.30 - 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 9th November

NEWBURY – NOVEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £187.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 2 (Claimantakinforgan) & 6 (Lostintranslation)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Whataknight), 10 (Captain Buck’s) & 5 (Onefitzall)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Crosspark), 7 (Colin’s Brother) & 4 (Exxaro)

Leg 4 (2.10): 4 (Cap Soleil) & 6 (Oscar Rose)

Leg 5 (2.45): 3 (Topofthegame) & 2 (Strong Pursuit)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Barman), 6 (Volpole Jelois) & 5 (Sea Wall)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.40: There is little point in dwelling beyond the fact that this, in essence, is a two runner race, despite its ten declarations.  It appears that CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN is fully expected to take care of LOSTINTRANSLATION according to the exchange play overnight.  Out of interest both the respective trainers saddled winners at the inaugural meeting last year, Nicky Henderson at 3/1 and Colin Tizzard at 9/1.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/2—Fly Du Charmil (soft)

 

1.10: On a (seemingly) drying day of weather towards the west of the country, ground conditions will be against Minella On Line who would otherwise have been offered as a half decent each way bet to consider as the rank outsider of the field. Instead, I am looking at the likes of CAPTAIN BUCK’S, ONEFITZALL and WHATANIGHT.  The latter named Harry Fry representative could take full advantage of the five pound claimer in the plate (27 winners via a 14% strike rate), whereby the 9/1 offer by BetVictor at the time of writing offers some win and place value from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Tobefair (soft)

1/1—Onefitzall (good to soft)

 

1.40: This was the race in which Colin Tizzard scored with his 9/1 winner twelve months ago and there will be worse outsiders than Colin’s raider EXXARO on the card for sure. With Colin’s Sister winning for us at 10/1 on Saturday, we now have the merits of COLIN’S BROTHER to consider, albeit the two horses hail from different stables.  Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in decent nick whereby COLIN’S BROTHER is short listed, especially as the seven-year-old won his first two races last season, albeit slight slower ground would have been ideal here.  CROSSPARK is the horse for money overnight and it’s worth noting that Richard Johnson takes his first ride for Caroline Bailey this season.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

2.10: Regular readers will know why Fergal O’Brien is one of my favourite trainers just now though to be entirely accurate, Fergal is rarely off my radar when focusing on handlers on a daily basis.  On the one hand his unbeaten four-year-old raider CAP SOLEIL would have enjoyed a little more moisture in the ground, though the negative scenario is arguably negated by the fact that his trio of bumper wins last were gained at three of the most competitive venues in the land at Cheltenham, Aintree and Sandown.  For those reasons alone, Fergal’s Kapgarde filly in the most interesting horse at Newbury today, whilst stable companion OSCAR ROSE also looks set to figure prominently.  Quite why ROSA DAMASCENA is a 28/1 chance in a place this morning I’m not entirely sure, given that Alan King’s Kalanisi filly was only offered as an 8/1 chance when contesting a Listed race at Aintree on her first run for Alan King last season.  Yes she was pulled up in a race which did not go anywhere near to plan, but 28/1 still looks a very big price given that we should always allow a horse one bad run (especially a filly) which is particularly relevant here, as ‘Rosa’ won her next race on the level at Chelmsford.  I am not suggesting this is an easy task by any means but all the same, a saver to minimum stakes is my way to play the race.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

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1/1—Cap Soleil (good to soft)

 

2.45: Despite Nicky Henderson’s fine strike rate at his local track, Beat That is not one of my favourite representatives from the Seven Barrows stable, whereby I am diluting this race down to a two horse affair, suggesting that Morello Royal also has plenty to prove at this level.  All the money at the time of writing is for TOPOFTHEGAME and no matter what the two trainers say about each other (offering a rosy glow), Paul Nicholls takes plenty of satisfaction from beating his fellow handler on Nicky’s ‘stamping ground’ whereby TOPOFTHEGAME is marginally preferred to STRONG PURSUIT in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/2 market leader (literally) failed to win a two horse race!

 

3.20: Two points of interest regarding Nicky Henderson’s recent Taunton winner BARMAN.  Firstly, Nicky’s six-year-old is due for a rise in the weights as of Sunday and secondly, ten pound claimer Alan Doyle easily negates the six pound rise for the relevant success which was gained under fast conditions.  With the ground seemingly set to dry out quite quickly today, BARMAN is the first name on the team sheet ahead of VOLPONE JELOIS and SEA WALL.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race during the course of my investigation in the pursuit of landing today’s ‘pot’.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Thursday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

7—Nicky Henderson (37/145 – loss of 11 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (21/111 +53)

4—Colin Tizzard (10/67 – loss of 15 points)

3—Warren Greatrex (11/58 – loss of 4 points)

3—Philip Hide (0/1)

3—Emma Lavelle (0/27)

3—Paul Nicholls (24/143 – loss of 18 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/81 – loss of 38 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (4/30 – loss of 9 points)

2—Alan King (18/140 – loss of 48 points)

2—Sophie Leech (0/9)

2—Gary Moore (4/41 +9)

2—Oliver Sherwood (5/36 +4)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th October

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £363.80 (3 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 10 (St John’s), 9 (Sgroppino) & 3 (Creswell Legend)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Flashjack) & 3 (Seven Kingdoms)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Darebin), 3 (Kapstadt) & 4 (Going For Broke)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Drinks Interval), 6 (Majestic Moll) & 2 (Skewiff)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Lined With Silver), 3 (Grand Coureur) & 6 (Monderon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Banditry) & 4 (Captain Felix)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Ludlow five year record relating to this corresponding meeting:

36 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £632.14

Highest dividend: £2,234.80 (2015) - Lowest dividend: £91.80 (2012)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Evan Williams (2/1*, 13/8* & 10/11*) – 2 runners today:

St John’s (1.55) & Skewiff (3.35)

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The NH season really begins to take shape now with the two day meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow, quickly followed by Aintree's first (proper) meeting since Grand National day being staged on Sunday, notwithstanding a half decent card at Wincanton.  In the meantime we have to make do with Ludlow, but each and every track in the land has its attractions and this venue is situated in a really beautiful part of the country.  Evan Williams is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this race to date whereby ST JOHN’S is offered up against shorter priced horses in the field, the pick of which (from a value for money perspective) might prove to be SGROPPINO and CRESWELL LEGEND.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured five gold medals and one of the silver variety, with just one market leader missing out on a Placepot position thus far.

 

2.30: Only eight seven-year-olds have contested this event to date, claiming four toteplacepot positions in the process, vintage representatives having won two of the contests at 8/1 & 5/2*.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured nine of the fourteen available Placepot positions and with FLASHJACK boasting ticks in both of the trend boxes representing the successful partnership of Daly/Johnson down the years, Henry’s raider is the call.  Hoping (against hope perhaps) that the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, I’m opting for SEVEN KINGDOMS as the main threat, with the David Dennis representative at home under these conditions which has been noted by overnight exchange players.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have won their respective events at 5/2 & 15/8, though search parties are still out looking for the other three market leaders that missed out on Placepot positions.

 

3.00: The type of race that I absolutely love from a Placepot perspective, with just two potential places up for grabs in a six strong ‘short field’ event.  This is the type of event that we find so often on NH cards at Sandown which historically produce great Placepot dividends pro ratia to the number of runners on a card.  Gary Moore has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect, securing 35 points of level stake profit into the bargain!  Gary has offered the green light to DAREBIN with an obvious chance, though there are plenty of other pointers in a fascinating contest.  Ian Williams (KAPSTADT) is another trainer on the crest of a wave with three of his last four runners having won, with the relevant beaten horse having been sent off as a 66/1 chance.  Overnight money has arrived for GOING FOR BROKE and I will offer up this trio against the other three contenders. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had failed to claim toteplacepot positions before the last two (4/9 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whilst securing six of the eleven available Placepot positions.  DRINKS INTERVAL and MAJESTIC MOLL are marginally preferred to fellow vintage representative SKEWIFF this time around, though all three contenders find a place in my permutation.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions having won their respective events at 11/8 & 11/10.

 

4.05: With so much to do to set up a busy weekend of fixtures, something has to give and on this occasion, I have to offer this amateur rider event short shrift. Thankfully, there has been interest in three horses overnight, namely LINED WITH SILVER, GRAND COUREUR and MONDERON.

Favourite factor: Two of five favourites to date (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (4/1) winner.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Show’s Over

 

4.35: Ian Williams (BANDITRY) has saddled a winner from two runners in this event during its brief history and his five-year-old Iffraaj gelding should secure a Placepot position at the very least in this grade/company.  BANDITRY makes his handicap debut here following a decent victory on this type of ground at Southwell the last day.  It’s always good to see horses coming into the NH sector who were still progressing on the flat and his last official mark of 94 on the level suggests that he should be able to compete in half decent races in this discipline.  Fellow last time out winners CAPTAIN FELIX and EXCELLENT TEAM should prove to be the main beneficiaries if Ian’s raider fails to impress.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites to have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 11/4 & 5/6 via three renewals.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Peruvian Bleu (2 x good)

1/2—Excellent Team (good to firm)

1/3—King Alfonso (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Alexandra Dunn (3/16 – loss of 2 points)

3—Robin Dickin (2/50 – loss of 16 points)

2—Henry Daly (17/90 – loss of 19 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (23/94 – loss of 8 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (5/51 – loss of 29 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (4/28 – loss of 9 points)

2—Dan Skelton (20/81 – loss of 5 points)

2—Colin Tizzard (3/23 – loss of 8 points)

2—Tom Vaughan (8/66 +9)

2—Evan Williams (36/213 – loss of 34 points)

2—Ian Wiillims (12/55 - +4)

2—Nick Williams (3/19 – loss of 7 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £61.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £345.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £60.60 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 11th October

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £243.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (The Statesman) & 3 (High Wells)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Still Believing), 3 (On Demand) & 4 (Poetic Lady)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Braqueur D’Or), 3 (Forever Field), 2 (Heist) & 4 (Always On The Run)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Tunnel Creek), 8 (Status Quo) & 7 (Dove Mountain)

Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Mick Thonic), 2 (Mad Jack Mytton) & 1 (The Gipper)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Tempesatefloresco) & 1 (Man Look)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The only way to start this meeting is to highlight the record of trainer Evan Williams who has saddled eight winners at the corresponding meeting during the last five years which would read well enough anyway, though particularly so as Evan let the other trainers off last year when not represented on the day!  The first of his four runners (from seven options at the weekend) runs in the second race on the card, whilst digesting the fact that six of the Williams winners scored at odds ranging between 7/2 and 8/1.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that the 11/10 trade press quote for THE STATESMEN in the this opening event was always looking wide of the mark, given that the Ian Williams trained Zoffany gelding won his last two races on the level when achieving his highest mark of 87 to date.  Earlier in the year, Ian was quoted as saying “this horse is a real athlete who will make a lovely hurdler” and it looks as though the trainer fancies the early season three-year-old races as a prelim to a possibe tilt at the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.  We will see, though it’s worth pointing out that the record of favourites in this event is not good by any means whereby this will be a watching brief for yours truly, having included THE STATESMAN in my Placepot mix.  One word of warning has to be offered however, as Ian would not want the ground riding too fast for his representative, perhaps wishing that this was the last race on the card rather than the first, with rain not due at Ludlow until the meeting starts. Others to consider include HIGH WELLS who cannot have the ground too fast from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last fourteen contests, during which time four gold medallists have scored at 25/1-25/1-20/1-11/1.  Only five of the 13 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the period.

 

2.25:  Not too many seven pound claimers can boast a 17% strike rate via their first sixteen winners under NH rules I’ll wager, though that is the record of Mitchell Bastyan whose record improves to 21% for Evan Williams from his six successful rides for the trainer thus far.  The first Williams runner on the card (see previous race for phenomenal stats and facts) is STILL BELIEVING who has won on good ground here despite two victories at LudLow under heavy conditions.  The only course winner in the field, STILL BELIEVING is the latest runner to be blessed by Mitchell’s claim though in ON DEMAND, Evan will know that he has at least one horse to beat.  ON DEMAND will be saddled by Colin Tizzard who snared a 20/1 double at Fontwell on Friday. Neill Mulholland’s hat trick seeker POETIC LADY is the other potential winner in the line up from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

3/14—Still Believing (2 x heavy & good)

 

3.00: This should be an entertaining event with Messers Nicholls and Henderson going head to head as we begin to home in on the NH season in real terms, especially with half decent Exeter and Chepstow meetings to follow during the next few days.  Paul Nicholls (BRAQUEUR D’OR) and Nicky Henderson (FOREVER FIELD) can expect decent efforts from their two representatives, though HEIST and ALWAYS ON THE RUN are added into the equation in a race which could go a long way to deciding the size of the Placepot dividend by the end of play.  The claimer aboard Tom George’s latter named representative has ridden six winners to date, four of which have been over fences and with no winners to his name over hurdles, Mr N George brings unusual stats into play.  Connections of HEIST will be hoping that the radar forecast of no rain until early afternoon is accurate.  That said, his eight victories to date include two wins under yielding conditions whereby I feel duty bound to include HEIST into the mix.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/3—Ozzy Thomas (good)

1/1—Heist (good to firm)

1/3—Belmount (good)

 

3.30: Olly Murphy saddles his first (two) runners here at Ludlow today and his recent Worcester winner TUNNEL CREEK was scoring on debut for the yard when giving ten pound claimer Fergus Gregory his fifth winner last month.  Olly keeps the partnership intact here which is just as well in the face of opposition which includes the likes of stable companion DOVE MOUNTAIN and STATUS QUO.

Favourite factor: This is yet another new event on the Ludlow racecard.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Goal (good to soft)

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1/6—Beallandendall (soft)

1/4—Frozen Over (good)

 

4.00: Bigmarte has won at the first time of asking in two terms to date though the ex-Irish raider rates as poor value for money at around the 2/1 mark from my viewpoint.  MAD JACK MYTTON (Jonjo O’Neill) and MICK THONIC (Colin Tizzard) represent two in form yards which make them Placepot candidates, notwithstanding the fact they are race fit compared to Harry Bannister’s projected favourite who has been off the track for six months. The Williams raider here is THE GIPPER who is the only course winner in the field, though his proven soft and heavy ground form dilutes his chance on this going, albeit he scrapes into my Placepot mix via my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency.

Favourite factor: This is the last of the four new Placepot races on the card.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—The Gipper (heavy)

 

4.35: On the face of it, the Evan Williams runner with the least chance of winning on the card is HANDS OF STONE, though it could be argued that only TEMPESTATEFLORESCO stands in his way, given that Colin Tizzard’s nine-year-old gelding looks thrown in on the best of his form.  Connections of MAN LOOK will be outraged by that comment however as the Donald McCain raider has finished ‘in the two’ on his last five assignments, stats which include two victories.  For the record, the last of the Evan Williams representatives runs in the 5.10 contest, namely Grania O’Malley who has been supported on the exchanges during the dead of night.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday, followed by their five year ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Colin Tizzard (2/10 – loss of 5 points)

4—Evan Williams (35/209 – loss of 35 points)

3—Neil Mulholland (4/26 – loss of 6 points)

2—Bernard Llewellyn (0/13)

2—Noel C Kelly (Noel saddles his first runners at the track today)

2—Gary Moore (3/13 +6)

2—Olly Murphy (Olly saddles his first runners at the track today)

2—Henry Oliver (3/36 – loss of 13 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/74 – loss of 34 points)

2—Matt Sheppard (7/47 +10)

2—Dan Skelton (19/80 – loss of 10 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £22.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Towcester: £20.10 – 7 favourties – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £28.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday May 14

PLUMPTON – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,282.10 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Knocknanuss) & 4 (Rasasee)

Leg 2 (2.45): 6 (Bostin), 3 (Lime Street) & 4 (Romeo Americo)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Venetian Lad), 7 (Killabraher Cross) & 3 (Smart Catch)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Osgood) & 6 (Too Many Diamonds)

Leg 5 (4.15): 7 (Sunnytahliateigan) & 8 (Ding Ding)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Little Windmill), 4 (Kingston) & 2 (Perfect Timing)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last twelve contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  The only vintage representative on parade here is JACKBLACK and Joshua Moore’s mount should figure prominently in this grade/company, though probably without winning the contest.  That honour looks likely to be claimed by KNOCKNANUSS, providing that Gary Moore (see details below) has got his seven-year-old Irish import 95% fit following an absence from the track for the thick end of two years.  The other worry (I guess) is that the Beneficial gelding has not raced on ground as firm as thus thus far but hailing from Ireland, you would not be surprised to read that fact!  RASASEE showed decent fast ground form on the level which offers hope for connections.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (three winners), whilst 29 of the 38 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.

 

2.45: This is the first of five races which witness no less than 18 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, well over a third of the list of declarations in total.  Six of the last seven winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which might have offered hope for supporters of Kayfin, though her soft ground victory at Plumpton reduces enthusiasm this time around, especially as the relevant success was her only win to date following 25 assignments.  More logical winners include BOSTIN, LIME STREET and ROMEO AMERICO.  This is a tough ‘short field’ event to assess, a term which relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  The last four winners have scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1.

Record of course winners in the second race:

2/6—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)

1/6—Romeo Americo (good to firm)

1/6—Bostin (good to firm)

1/10—Kayfin (soft)

 

3.15: This is another ‘short field’ teaser on the card and no mistake!  Tony Carroll scored with his only (9/1) runner at Plumpton last season and it’s interesting to note that his two runners on the card are the only horses in the respective fields not to have won at the track.  SMART CATCH is the relevant entry here though I would have held out more hope for the eleven-year-old had he had half a mile less to tackle.  From a win perspective accordingly, I slightly prefer the likes of VENETIAN LAD and KILLABRAHER CROSS, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders have finished second (claiming toteplacepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before last year’s 10/3 favourite went on the missing list.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Royals And Rebels (good to soft)

2/14—Venetian Lad (2 x good)

1/8—Frank N Fair (good)

3/18—Flugzeug (good – good to soft – good to firm)

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

2/8—Killabraher Cross (2 x good)

 

3.45: The only course winner (on good to firm ground for good measure) in the field is OSGOOD and like the lads and lasses who offered a trade press quote of 5/2 about Gary Moore’s raider, I am surprised/delighted to see 11/2 chalked up this morning.  TOO MANY DIAMONDS has seemingly attracted all the overnight money, though I guess that is not too much of a surprise given that Dan Skelton has saddled 51 winners via a 25% strike rate since the end of February.  That S/R is all the more impressive when we take into account the time of year, given the competitive Cheltenham and Aintree festivals during the study period.  TAURIAN is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via six renewals to date, statistics which include three successful (7/2, 15/8 & 2/1) market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/3—Osgood (good to firm)

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4.15: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six contests to date, with SUNNYTAHLIATEIGAN being the only younger horse in the line up on this occasion.  Add the fact that the relevant trainer Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner increases confidence in David Noonan’s mount in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  DING DING was third at 10/1 in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting last year and on offer at an even bigger price here, Sheena West’s course and distance winner is an alternative each way option if you don’t fancy the projected favourite.  That option might prove appealing if the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact towards flag fall.  OSSIE’S DANCER is the reserve nomination

Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Baratineur (soft)

2/2—Ossie’s Dancer (2 x good)

3/9—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)

 

4.45: A corker of a Placepot finale which will blow at least a third of the live Placepot units out of the water, irrespective of the result!  With the last 15 winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just five) horses in the field if you share my self- confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies. The other two horses have plenty going for them anyway, especially with LITTLE WINDMILL having won two of his races at this venue under fast conditions.  The reasons for supporting KINGSTON are slightly less obvious aside from the weight trend though that said, Tony Carroll is the relevant trainer whose positive Plumpton record I mentioned earlier on the card.  With Jay Are probably needing this comeback run following two years off the track, PERFECT TIMING is added to the Placepot mix, mainly because this event would fall into the ‘win only’ category should a  non-runner rear its ugly head.

 

Favourite factor: Three of the last 14 renewals of this toteplacepot finale have been won by market leaders.  Seven of the 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Gores Island (good)

1/1—Perfect Timing (good to firm)

1/1—Jay Are (good to soft)

2/3—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (13/70 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Seamus Mullins (1/10 – loss of 15 points)

3—Daniel O’Brien (0/11)

2—Tony Carroll (1/1 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Zoe Davison (1/13 – loss of 3 points)

2—Diana Grissell (0/25)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Mark Hoad (0/10)

2—Linda Jewell (3/26 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Neil King (3/18 – loss of 6 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (4/127 – loss of 16 points)

2—Sheena West (3/15 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight profit)

2—Steve Woodman (0/5)

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ludlow: £9.20 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday April 25

BRIGHTON – APRIL 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £233.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (4.50): 1 (Declaration Of Love) & 2 (Global Exceed)

Leg 2 (5.20): 4 (Fleeting Glimpse), 5 (Hidden Gem) & 3 (Sexton Blake)

Leg 3 (5.50): 1 (Coronation Day) & 4 (Ice Age)

Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Pack It In), 4 (Roy Rocket) & 5 (Becca Campbell)

Leg 5 (6.55): 7 (How’s Lucy) & 8 (Latest Quest)

Leg 6 (7.25): 2 (Bloodsweatandtears), 4 (Magic Moments) & 5 (Live Dangerously)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stake

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.50: Beaten less than two lengths at Windsor at the first time of asking a fortnight ago, DECLARATION OF LOVE can score for Tom Clover in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  For the uninitiated, Tom was assistant to David Simcock for six years, experience which should stand him in good stead for the future.  Connections might have most to fear from GLOBAL EXCEED who represents the in-form yard of Ed Dunlop who had saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have claimed Placepot positions via three renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.

Record of trainers at Brighton during the last five years in the two-year-old sector:

No runners—Tom Clover (Declaration Of Love)

1/3—Ed Dunlop (Globe Exceed)

6/31—Mick Channon (Milton Road)

1/14—Stan Moore (My Guy & Controversial Lady)

1/9—Jo Hughes (Diamond Pirsuit)

 

5.20: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 9-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (18 up for grabs) gained via six renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared four of the five contests before last year which went the way of a five-year-old.  It defies belief that there are no five-year-olds this time around, whilst the pick of the quartet of four-year-olds should prove to be HIDDEN GEM, SEXTON BLAKE and Andrew Balding’s recent Kempton winner FLEETING GLIMPSE.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Virile (good to firm)

2/5—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)

2/8—Gypsy Rider (good to firm & firm)

 

5.50: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with fitness having to be taken on trust relating to James Tate’s consistent inmate CORONATION DAY though if 95% fit for his first assignment for over six months, Martin Harley should be able to boot home another winner.  Martin has only ridden more winners for Mick Channon that he has for James and even then, James would draw level on the 25 mark if the pair can team up successfully on Tuesday.  It’s also worth pointing out that the bandwagon has produced over six points of level stake profits during the study period.   ICE AGE is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card.

1/1—Lyfka (good to firm)

1/2—Arlecchino’s Leap (good to firm)

1/4—Swiss Cross (good to firm)

 

6.20:  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones and I expect the trend to be extended, with PACK IT IN and course specialist ROY ROCKET having been declared in a ‘dead eight’ contest.  That said, BECCA CAMPBELL also boasts some great course figures (see below) and running from just 16 ounces below the superior weight barrier, John Fahy’s mount should not be far away.

Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

5/12—Roy Rocket (3 x good to firm – good – good to soft)

3/5—Becca Campbell (3 x good)

2/12—Solveig’s Song (good to firm & good to soft)

1/9—Siouxperhero (good to firm)

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1/4—Onehelluvatouch (good to firm)

 

6.55: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 4-2 via just the six renewals to date races to date whilst from a Placepot perspective, the 'juniors' lead the four-year-olds 9-4. This is a poor contest (there is no disguising the fact), with HOW’S LUCY and LATEST QUEST taken as the pick of the ‘younger set’, the pair being marginally preferred to the only course winner ETTIE HART.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (7/2**, 7/4 & 11/10) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—Ettie Hart (good to firm)

 

7.25: William Knight had won with three of his last eleven runners at the time of writing and BLOODSWEATANDTEARS can improve the ratio further still as dusk rolls in over the South Downs.  Alan King will fancy his chances of saddling a winner on the level having declared MAGIC MOMENTS, whilst LIVE DANGEROUSLY completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (no winners).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/15—Bloodsweatandtears (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—Stormbound (good to firm)

2/6—Live Dangerously (good & good to soft)

1/17—Jonnie Skull (good to firm)

2/18—Lutine Charlie (good & firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Brighton card on Tuesday – followed by winning trainers at the track this season + starting prices after one meeting at Brighton:

3 runners—Mick Channon

3—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Tony Carroll (1/2 @ 11/4)

2—Paul Cole

2—John Gallagher

2—Sylvester Kirk

2—David Loughnane

2—Phil McEntee

2—Gary Moore

2—Stan Moore

2—Charlie Wallis

1 runner for Philip Hide (1/3 @13/2)

+ 31 trainers who also each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hexham: 227.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Ludlow: £65.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £38.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

The Yarmouth meeting is a new fixture on the calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday April 18

NEWMARKET – APRIL 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £236.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mark Of Approval), 4 (Elyaasaat) & 6 (Night Curcus)

Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Never Back Down), 8 (Sound Of Silence) & 2 (Contribute)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Via Egnatia) & 2 (Salsabeel)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Sacred Act), 7 (Next Stage) & 14 (Timeless Act)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Salouen) & 3 (Apex King)

Leg 6 (4.35): 3 (Jewel House), 9 (Top Mission) & 2 (Firefright)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: As the ‘Wood Ditton’ is invariably a total guessing game, I find myself already looking for excuses should the horses I highlight fail to light up the heath in any shape or form. I am trusting to John Gosden (as I did last year) to get us through this opening teaser of a contest, the trainer having offered the green light to MARK OF APPROVAL and DAMOCLES this time around.  That said, it is literally impossible to ignore any horse that William Haggas saddles in 2017 (57% strike rate) as his 16/28 ratio confirms.  William greeted last year’s winner for good measure whereby the chance of ELYAASAAT is highly respected.  Charlie Appleby’s runners on the heath can rarely be dismissed and NIGHT CURCUS is (accordingly) added into the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners) during the 19 year study period.

 

2.20: Unless NEVER BACK DOWN drifts like the proverbial barge this morning, Hugo Palmer’s raider will not be sent off as a 6/1 chance as the trade press forecast implies.  Indeed, it might be difficult to obtain half that price if the overnight momentum continues in the hours leading up to flag fall.  SOUND AND SILENCE could be anything representing Charlie Appleby who boasts a 19% strike rate during the last five years at at Newmarket in the tough two-year-old sector.  As far as a speculative call is concerned, CONTRIBUTE could be the answer.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via the last five renewals, three of which have been won by market leaders, statistics that include two odds on winners.

 

2.55: Although the overnight general comment about this being a ‘match’ event looks accurate despite there being six declarations, the world and his dog only seems to have eyes for VIA EGNATIA over SALSABEEL at the time of writing.  The projected favourites have ‘flip flopped’ as far as the exchanges were projecting last night though either way, this pair appear to have the race by the scruff of the neck between them.  Peter Chapple-Hyam has been known to throw the odd spanner in the works however whereby the chance of Time Zone is not totally ignored.

Favourite factor: Four of the last five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/1—Time Zone (good to firm)

1/1—Via Egnatia (good to firm)

 

3.30:  There are worse outsiders on the card than MUTARAKEZ I’ll wager, though more logical winners include SACRED ACT, NEXT STAGE and TIMELESS ACT.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though the contest will need more work to illuminate the form lines.  VIA VIA brings recent winning form to the party which complicates matters.  James Tate’s Newcastle winner is hiked up two notches however which tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.

Favourite factor: This Class 2 event is a new race on the Newmarket card.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Highland Colori (good to firm)

1/2—Secret Art (good to soft)

1/2—Via Via (good to firm)

1/1—Lavetta (good to soft)

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1/1—Timeless Art (good)

 

4.05: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 and I expect the trend to be extended by the likes of SALOUEN and APEX KING.  The firs named Sylvester Kirk raider was beaten just two lengths in the Racing Post Trophy last back end and with Ryan Moore taking the ride for the first time, another decent effort can surely be anticipated.  That said, SALOUEN would not be the first three-year-old to ‘fall short’ the following season after a good juvenile term, though the booking of Moore looks highly significant from my viewpoint.  Ryan is riding as well as ever as nine winners during the last fortnight testifies.  APEX KING is preferred to MONTATAIRE, though a ‘soft lead’ for Mark Johnston’s raider might warrant a ‘saver’ in running though look smart, as nine furlongs will fly by under these fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the twenty favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last seventeen years, statistics which include six winners.

 

5.05: John Gosden has saddled three winners of this event during the last nine years and though JEWEL HOUSE ran an ordinary race at Doncaster the other week, this self-confessed anorak will adhere to his principles.  That aside, TOP MISSION and FIREFRIGHT are the other potential winners in the field.

Favourite factor: Five of the eighteen favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals, whilst twelve market leaders finished in the frame.  That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2.  Twelve of the last fifteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track in 2016 + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—John Gosden (15/64 - loss of 1 point)

5—Charlie Hills (3/31 – loss of 19 points)

4—Andrew Balding (2/26 – loss of 13 points)

3—Charlie Appleby (7/38 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Richard Fahey (0/33)

3—Richard Hannon (6/66 – loss of 25 points)

2—Marco Botti (0/10)

2—Karl Burke (1/14 – loss of 5 points)

2—Ed Dunlop (3/30 – loss of 17 points)

2—William Knight (0/10)

2—Phil McBride (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gary Moore (0/4)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (5/40 – loss of 11 points)

2—James Tate (3/20 – loss of 5 points)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: £111.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton (NH): £256.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Ludlow: £561.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Southwell (A/W): £147.20 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday April 3

KELSO – APRIL 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £221.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Kelso: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 9 (The Delray Munky) & 7 (Midnite Grace)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Ascot De Bruyere), 4 (Finaghy Ayr) & 1 (Marlee Massie)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Total Assets), 1 (Teddy Tee) & 6 (Andhaar)

Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Chidswell) & 1 (Morning Royalty)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Grace Tara) & 3 (Floramoss)

Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (Bennys King), 8 (Rhymers Stone) & 3 (Jennys Melody)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Trainer Iain Jardine has saddled four of his last nine runners to winning effect whereby THE DELRAY MUNKY makes some appeal after a half decent bumper effort here at Kelso under similar conditions recently.  I’m inclined to marginally favour MIDNITE GRACE over SUNSET MARQUIS given the odds on offer, with the latter named raider looking too skinny at around the 11/10 mark for my liking.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.40: I’m not surprised that ASCOT DE BRUYERE has come in for some overnight support and though an additional couple of furlongs have been added following his facile victory here nine days ago, James Ewart’s seven-year-old raider is fancied to follow up successfully.  As a winner of two of his last four races on soft/heavy ground, I’m surprised that FINAGHY AYR was ignored in the trade press ‘summing up’, with Ian Duncan’s representative certainly being involved in my Placepot mix, arguably alongside MARLEE MASSIE.

Favourite factor: Favourites were on a roll this time last year with the second market leader prevailing at 2/1.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

2/6—Marlee Massie (soft & heavy)

1/2—Ascot De Bruyere (heavy)

 

3.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than ANDHAAR who is offered a 14/1 quote with some firms this morning.  Nick Alexander boasts the most runners at the meeting (six in total) and ANDHAAR might achieve more than is generally considered in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  That last comment suggests that TEDDY TEE is not completely ruled out of the equation either, though TOTAL ASSETS (good record at the venue) looks a more likely winner.  Plenty of Placepot units will be lost in this event, irrespective of the eventual outcome.

Favourite factor:  All good things come to an end, whereby the third market leader last year finished out with the washing having been sent off at 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

2/13—Bescot Springs (good to soft & heavy)

3/7—Total Assets (2 x good to soft & heavy)

1/2—Andhaar (good)

 

3.40: It’s difficult to look beyond the consistent eight-year-old CHIDSWELL who comes to the gig on a hat trick.  Nicky Richards appears to have found another winning opportunity for his representative, with connections probably having most to fear from MORNING ROYALTY, though Next Sensation should not be too far away either at the business end of proceedings, especially with ‘team Scudamore’ enjoying a purple patch of late.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished last of seven to bring punters back down to earth. The frame was filled by horses returned at 11/1, 8/1 & 11/1.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/3—Ubatique (soft)

1/4—Vengeur De Guye (good to soft)

1/4—Uno Valoroso (good to soft)

 

4.10: GRACE TARA is taken to beat FLORAMOSS in what should develop into a ‘match’ on the final circuit in this Novice Hurdle event over the thick end of three miles.  Lucinda Russell’s runners can rarely be ignored when the mud is flying whereby Topham Bay is not entirely ruled out of the mix.

Favourite factor: Sure enough, a treble was landed for favourite backers this time last year, albeit at the cramped odds of 2/5.  That said, punters would welcome a 12/1 treble if three of the first five favourites won on the card this time around.

 

4.40: I’m not at all sure that JENNYS MELODY deserves the ‘rag billing’ in the trade press in this event and I doubt that much (if any) of the 20/1 quote will be available, especially with Paddy Brennan taking the ride.  Paddy boasts a 50% strike rate aboard the mare and though BENNYS KING and RHYMERS STONE appeal as more likely winners, JENNYS MELODY is an alternative each way play to consider, especially if the ‘dead eight’ runners face the starter.  Bennys King contested the ‘Lanzarote’ at Kempton last time out whereby the drop in grade is there for all to see.

Favourite factor: The 3/1 market leader finished last of the seven finishers twelve months ago.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/8—Another Mattie (heavy)

1/9—Rhymers Stone (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kelso card on Monday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Nick Alexander

5—Lucinda Russell

3—Michael Scudamore

2—Ian Duncan

2—Iain Jardine

2—Donald McCain

2—Nicky Richards

2—Mark Walford

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

41 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £23.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Ludlow: £88.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday March 23

WOLVERHAMPTON – MARCH 23 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £988.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 10 (Goodwood Crusader), 1 (Powerful Dream) & 9 (Loumarin)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Drago), 4 (Mr Red Clubs) & 1 (Anton Chigurh)

Leg 3 (2.55): 6 (Surround Sound) & 4 (Dunquin)

Leg 4 (3.25): 3 (Bessemer Lady) & 2 (The Last Debutante)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Lord Cooper) & 5 (Derek Duval)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Hidden Charms), 11 (Shift Cross) & 3 (Dusky Maid)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: The trade press suggests that this is a new race on the card, though the BHA have a different viewpoint on the contest; hence the favourite factor offered below.  Only nine horses remain and one market move catches the eye in that GOODWOOD CRUSADER is only offered at a genuine each way price in one place this morning, as opposed to plenty of 6/1 available at the overnight stage.  Others to consider include POWERFUL DREAM and LOUMARIN.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last six favourites (winner at 2/1) has claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the first race:

2/6—Powerful Dream

2/6—Pushkin Museum

2/5—Roaring Rory

1/10—Doctor Parkes

1/6—Annie Salts

1/10—Loumarin

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have held the edge via five renewals from just 20% of the total number of runners.  Four of the seven vintage representatives have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (13/2 & 2/5) winners.  DRAGO is the lone vintage representative this time around and the beaten favourite and course and distance winner could be given another chance in this grade/company.  That said, MR RED CLUBS also boasts a decent record here at Wolverhampton, whilst ANTON CHIGURH returns to defend his crown from twelve months back.

Favourite factor: The five winners to date have scored at a top price of 13/2, whilst two of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (2/5) winner.

Record of the course winners in the second contest on the card:

1/4—Anton Chigurh

2/5—Drago

7/16—Mr Red Clubs

1/14—Ready

 

2.55: It’s unusual to see the price of 15/8 offered right across the markets given its ‘fraction’ but that’s what is on offer at the time of writing for LADY TURPIN following a recent Southwell success.  The problem I have is that four course winners take on Richard Fahey’s raider, whereby I marginally prefer the likes of SURROUND SOUND and DUNQUIN.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have missed out on Placepot positions behind horses which filled frame at 6-1-28/1-4/1 in the first instance and 9/2-25/1-10/1 twelve months ago.

Wolverhampton record of course winners in the third event:

1/3—Consortium

1/13—English Summer

1/5—Dunquin

1/9—Surround Sound

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3.25: There are plenty of leading stables represented here, despite the fact that this is a Class 6 event.  Ralph Beckett (BESSEMER LADY) and Mark Johnston (THE LAST DEBUTANTE) are two such handlers who see this obvious opportunity of winning this event before moving their raiders up in grade.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (8/11 & 11/8) winners.

Wolverhampton record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Bessemer Lady

 

4.00: LORD COOPER confirmed placings last time out when striking up successive victories, despite being six pounds worse off the Jet Setting.  This progressive three-year-old might still be a few ounces ahead of the official handicapper, with connections probably having most to fear from fellow course and distance winner DEREK DUVAL, whose three pound claimer could ensure a tight finish, potentially receiving six pounds from the selection.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have finished in the frame via three renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.

Wolverhampton record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Lord Cooper

1/6—Cappananty Con

1/1—Derek Duval

 

4.30: Although the seven experienced runners have not run too badly in the main thus far, the bar has not been set very high whereby newcomers SHIFT CROSS and HIDDEN CHARMS should both go well at the first time of asking.  DUSKY MAID is taken to run into a place late doors.

Favourite factor: Both (4/5 & 10/11) favourites have prevailed this far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wolverhampton card on Thursday – followed by their ratios this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Mick Appleby (11/90 – loss of 29 points)

2—Marco Botti (3/16 - - loss of 4 points)

2—Karl Burke (2/20 – loss of 5 points)

2—Chris Dwyer (2/8 – Profit of 18 points)

2—Tim Easterby (0/6)

2—Clare Ellam (0/13)

2—Geoff Harker (0/1)

2—Richard Hughes (2/26 – loss of 19 points)

2—Dean Ivory (2/31 – loss of 20 points)

2—William Muir (2/13 – Profit of 5 points)

2—David O’Meara (12/54 – Profit of 41 points)

2—Ian Williams (11/46 – Profit of 41 points)

2—Stuart Williams (4/34 – loss of 17 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £435.80 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £610.00 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Ludlow: £103.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 plac

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday March 12

LUDLOW - MARCH 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£894.90 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Autumn Rain), 12 (Miss Williams) & 8 (Mansion)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Some Are Lucky), 4 (Kap Jazz) & 2 (Colin’s Brother)

Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Mixchievous), 5 (Baron Du Plessis) & 3 (Aliandy)

Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Roc D’Apsis) & 6 (Marcillac)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Two Swallows) & 1 (Still Believing)

Leg 6 (5.05): 5 (Persian Snow) & 6 (Colbert Station)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals and with MANSION and (possibly) AUTUMN RAIN among three relevant raiders, Placepot positions could be gained.  Six-year-old MISS WILLIAMS might prove to be the joker in the pack however.  Aidan Coleman sits only one behind Richard Johnson in terms of the riders who have ridden the most winners for Charlie Longsdonthis season, with Aidan boasting a slight better (21%) strike rate, whilst producing 13 points of level stake profits for the team into the bargain.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 14 favourites have finished in the frame (five winners).  Tread carefully however, as the 1/3 market leader missed out on a gold rosette eight years ago when favourites were on a four-timer in the contest, notwithstanding the facts that last year’s jolly was turned over at odds of 4/9

 

2.50: All four runners have genuine claims on the best of their respective form lines, so much so that I will be including the quartet in my Placepot permutation, hoping that the horse with the least number of units prevail.  For the record, the four runners are listed in marginal order of preference as SOME ARE LCUKY, KAP JAZZ, COLIN’S BROTHER and VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.  Having now formed the rest of the analysis, I am dropping Vote Of Confidence from the permutation given his preference for decent ground, conditions that are very unlikely to be in evidence.

Favourite factor: Both (5/6 & 5/4) favourites had prevailed before the next 5/2 joint market leaders were beaten, albeit one of them claimed a Placepot position.  Last year’s 5/2 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Colin’s Brother (good to soft)

 

3.25: Eleven of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 11-0 or less and both of this year’s ‘qualifiers’ make some appeal from those down towards the bottom of the handicap.  Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals of this event and vintage raiders are 1/4 to extend the good run before the form book is taken into account.  MIXCHIEVOUS and BARON DU PLESSIS boast ticks in both boxes.  ALIANDY is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Six of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Seymour Star (soft)

 

4.00: Eight-year-olds have won eight of the last 16 renewals (vintage raiders have won five of the last nine contests) whilst securing a 1-2-3 six years ago before landing a successful forecast in 2013.  12 of the last 16 winners (including 10 of the last 12) have carried weights of 10-12 or more and taking the stats and facts into account, ROC D’APSIS and MARCILLAC are listed in order of preference as my chosen trio, despite the fact that the latter named Venetia Williams raider carries 16 ounces less than the weight trend demands.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 15 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners during the last 12 years.  10 of the last 11 winners have scored at a top price of 9/1.

Record of the course winners in the four event:

2/6—Gallery Exhibition (2 x good to soft)

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1/3—Belmount (good)

1/3—Valleyofmilan (good to soft)

 

4.35: TWO SWALLOWS boasts ticks in just about all the boxes here, including the seven pound claimer (Alex Ferguson) in the saddle which is something of a steal from what we have witnessed this season.  STILL BELIEVING can be relied upon to offer a challenge somewhere up the home straight I’ll wager, though the potential concession of ten pounds is a tough ask.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished out of the money thus far.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

3/13—Still Believing (2 x heavy & good)

 

4.50: PERSIAN SNOW is difficult to oppose, with COLBERT STATION just as likely to occupy the runner up berth.  Philip Hobbs and Jonjo O’Neill saddle the two horses respectively, the only leading ‘professional’ trainers in the line-up.  My Placepot plans went base over apex in a similar Placepot finale earlier in the week, though this no opposition to this pair providing they negotiate the obstacles safely. The only worry are the favourite stats below…

Favourite factor: Six of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in the toteplacepot finale, statistics which includes four winners.  The biggest priced gold medallist had been an 8/1 chance before the 2015 forecast positions were secured by horses sent off at 28/1 & 50/1.  The Tote Exacta dividend paid £730.90 to a one pound stake.  Twelve months on, a 50/1 winner emerged ahead of a 12/1 chance, the Exacta paying £678.40!

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Persian Snow (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

7 winners—Venetia Williams (1/12 – loss of 8 points)

3—Tom Weston (0/7)

2—Kim Bailey (1/14 – loss of 8 points)

2—Tom George (1/10 – loss of 10 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/14 – loss of 12 points)

2—Donald McCain (1/10 – level profit/loss this season)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/24 – loss of 10 points)

2—Evan Williams (2/32 – loss of 24 points)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: £16.70 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed

Chelmsford: £3,156.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: No all-weather racing at Newcastle was staged until last May

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday February 22

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: Meeting abandoned

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 8 (Ridgeway Flyer) & 11 (Calling Des Blins)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Lou Vert) & 4 (Mercian King)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (One More Hero), 4 (Step Back) & 6 (Westend Story)

Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (He’s A Bully), 7 (William Money) & 5 (Better Days)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Applesandpierres), 10 (Hill Fort) & 3 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Mendip Express) & 2 (Mr Mercurial)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 4/9 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around.  RIDGEWAY FLYER, CALLING DES BLINS and JOHANOS head my overnight ratings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.

Record of the course winner in the first race:

1/1—Ridgeway Flyer (good)

 

2.35: The last four horses saddled by Paul Nicholls have won and though LOU VERT is not one of the shining stars back at the ranch, Sam Twiston-Davies looks poised to close aboard the youngest (five-year-old) runner in the contest.  Only MERCIAN KING of the older raiders has proved consistent of late, with Amy Murphy’s beaten favourite given another chance alongside the marginal selection.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

 

3.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and with five of the eight declarations representing the vintage this time around, the trend looks set to continue.  ONE MORE HERO and WESTEND STORY are two likely types, with seven-year-old STEP BACK rated as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.

 

3.35: This race would be particularly interesting towards flag fall if the ‘dead eight’ runners remain intact.  Call me a cynic if you like, but I’m thinking the price about that scenario unfolding being around a 5/4 chance, which equates to 44%.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that HE’S A BULLY, WILLIAM MONEY and BETTER DAYS are the first names on the overnight team sheet.  The latter named raider is only ‘third best’, given that he has failed to put back to back victories together thus far despite possessing more than his fair share of talent.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

2/4—Ultimatum Du Roy (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: The second and third horses in the handicap make most appeal at the overnight stage, namely APPLESANDPIERRES and I’M A GAME CHANGER.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than course and distance winner HILL FORT I'll wager, whilst any withdrawals would bring STAMP YOUR FEET into the equation.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the course winners in the first race:

1/5—Canadian Diamond (good to soft)

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1/4—Hill Fort (soft)

 

4.45: Results have worked out positively (as usual) in Hunter Chase’ events as you can see below, with this type of race offering some of the best market leader stats under either code of our favourite sport. Two horses stand out from the crowd here in MENDIP EXPRESS and MR MERCURIAL, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have been returned at a top price of 9/2 (two successful favourites), whilst the other gold medallist was hardly a 'skinner' in the books having scored at 8/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Dan Skelton (2/10 – loss of 7 points)

5—Philip Hobbs (3/13 – loss of 1 point)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/21 – loss of 7 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/4)

3—Ian Williams (0/3)

2—Kim Bailey (1/12 – loss of 6 points)

2—Lady Susan Brooke (0/3)

2—James Evans (0/1)

2—Alex Hales 2/3 – Profit of 18 points)

2—Aslan King (6/11 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Paul Nicholls (1/4 – loss of 2 points)

2—Matt Sheppard (0/6)

2—Tom Vaughan (1/11 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom Weston (0/6)

2—Evan Williams (2/10 – loss of 22 points)

2—Noel Williams (1/3 – Profit of 2 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £33.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £105.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £2,566.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday January 25

CATTERICK – JANUARY 25 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £53.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Idder), 11 (Floramoss) & 1 (Cracking Find)

Leg 2 (1.55): 5 (Suzy’s Music), 2 (Bankhall) & 11 (Major Ridge)

Leg 3 (2.30): 2 (Alzammaar), 5 (Italian Rviera) & 6 (Thyne For Gold)

Leg 4 (3.05): 3 (Two Taffs) & 1 (Aminabad)

Leg 5 (3.40): 3 (Herons Heir) & 7 (Roxtfet)

Leg 6 (4.10): 4 (Rocky Two) & 8 (Galactic Power)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: The two winners in the field (IDDER and CRACKING FIND) have to give weight away as is usually the case but that said, only FLORAMOSS looks to have any real chance of stopping one of them landing another success.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market leader had to give best to the 7/4 second favourite when gaining a Placepot position.

 

1.55: Nine-year-olds have won five of the last six contests and with two of the fourteen declarations representing the vintage this time around, SUZY’S MUSIC  and (possibly) APACHE PILOT could extend the positive ratio between them.  Brian Hughes is still waiting to break his duck for Irish trainer Stuart Crawford but SUZY’S MUSIC is still the each way call in the race from my viewpoint.  If vintage representatives are to miss out this time around (I included last year’s 10/1 winner in the mix), BANKHALL and MAJOR RIDGE are the likeliest jokers in the pack.
Favourite factor: Four of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one successful (joint) favourite.  Ballabriggs won this event in 2010, the year before Donald McCain’s raider went on to secured Grand National glory at Aintree.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/6—Dystonia’s Revenge (soft)

 

2.30: Six, seven and eight-year-olds have won seven of the nine renewals contested during the last eleven years between them, via less than 56% of the total number of runners (56/101).  The pick of the four relevant representatives on this occasion appear to be ALZAMMAAR and the two course and distance winners ITALIAN RIVIERA and THYNE FOR GOLD.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have finished in the (exact science) frame, statistics which include one (7/2**) successful favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

2/2—Jaleo (2 x good to soft)

2/2—Italian Riviera (2 x good)

1/2—Thyne For Gold (good)

1/1—Nietzsche (good to soft)

 

3.05: TWO TAFFS would not be one of the brightest lights in the Skelton stable at present, but Dan’s Flemensfirth gelding should figure prominently at the very least in this grade/company.  Connections probably have most to fear from AMINABAD, though the terms and conditions favour TWO TAFFS via recent form lines.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 favourite was bowling along in front and still going well two years ago when unseating the pilot at the last fence down the far side before turning for home.  Last year’s 1/4 favourite made amends to a fashion, given its skinny price for the ‘working man’.

 

3.40: Seven-year-olds have won three of the five renewals thus far, with a lone vintage representative securing the silver medal on one of the other two occasions.  With four of the five gold medallists having carried 11-2 or more to date, nine-year-old HERONS HEIR (weight) and course winner ROXYFET (vintage) cover the trends between them and this pair should take us through to the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out of the money before the next two market leaders prevailed at 7/4 & 5/2.  Last year’s 5/2 jolly finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest event:

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1/5—Roxyfet (soft)

 

4.10: Seven-year-olds had secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions, statistics which included all three (12/1-7/2*-9/4*) winners, before last year’s lone raider finished out with the washing.  Just two trainers are live to the 'edge' on this occasion, with ROCKY TWO (Phil Kirby) and GALACTIC POWER (Robin Dickin) fitting the bill.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/2 favourite was brought down by the only faller in the contest at the first flight five years ago.  The 2013 meeting was abandoned when we were all trapped in our homes via snowdrifts before the next two market leaders obliged.  Last year’s 4/1 market leader scraped into a Placepot postion by securing a bronze gong.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Snowed In (2 x good to soft)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Mick Easterby (4/30 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Micky Hammond (1/16 – loss of 9 points)

3—Dan Skelton (4/13 – loss of 4 points)

2—Brian Ellison (16/68 – loss of 18 points)

2—Chris Grant (1/55 – loss of 29 points)

2—Ben Haslam (0/6)

2—Henry Hogarth (3/25 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Donald McCain (34/156 (-loss of 14 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/30 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Mike Sowersby (1/38 – loss of 33 points)

2—Sheena Walton (0/7)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

55 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £162.40 – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

No meeting at Ludlow

A/W racing had not started yet at Newcastle this time last year

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday January 19

LUDLOW – JANUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

Meeting abandoned

 
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 4 (Boagrius) & 1 (Amour De Nuit)

Leg 2 (1.50): 3 (Land Of Vic) & 5 (Pemba)

Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Un Anjou), 2 (Upsanddowns) & 4 (Vital Evidence)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Grape Tree Flame), 4 (Millicent Silver) & 3 (Theatre Goer)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Port Melon), 6 (Still Believing) & 7 (I Am Colin)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (River Wylde) & 13 (The Blue Bomber)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.20: This is not the luckiest track in the country for Warren Greatrex but with the team in form, Warren’s impressive (December) Catterick winner BOAGRIUS who hosed up by a dozen lengths is expected to follow up, chiefly as the expense of AMOUR DE NUIT.  The alternative each way option is Shanroe In Milan.
Favourite factor: The six races on the card are all new events.

 

1.50: Peter Bowen was intimating that he expected a winner or two at this meeting when interviewed on Wednesday after saddling a gold medallist, with LAND OF VIC being his raider in the second contest on the card.  A winner of all three races at the venue, ‘Vic’ should take the beating, albeit PEMBA looks sure to make a race of it as the business end of proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

3/3—Land Of Vic (2 x heavy + good)

1/4—Timon’s Tiara (soft)

 

2.25: Only one of the last 37 runners has won for David Dennis, though the Worcestershire based trainer is far too good for the run to last much longer, whereby UN ANJOU is given a somewhat speculative vote in a race which should not take a great deal of winning.  Only Evan Williams (UPSANDDOWNS) can be classed as being in half decent form via the represented handlers, whereby his nine-year-old is rated as the main threat to the selection, just ahead of VITAL EVIDENCE.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

1/3—Truckers Highway (soft)

1/2—Upsanddowns (good)

 

3.00: GRAPE TREE FLAME has to be of interest in this grade/company, especially being touted as the ‘rag’ in the field according to the betting forecast in the trade press.  I doubt that position in the eventual market personally though either way, MILLICENT SILVER and THEATRE GOER could emerge as the main dangers.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/4—Midnight Target (good)

 

3.35: As a winner of just two of his twelve races (under rules) to date, PORT MELON is the not the brightest light in the Paul Nicholls yard though that said, his best form would be enough to dismiss these opponents with something to spare I’ll wager.  STILL BELIEVING and I AM COLIN are feared most.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

2/5—Gallery Exhibition (2 x good to soft)

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1/3—Royal Palladium (good to soft)

3/11—Still Believing (2 x heavy + good)

 

4.10: RIVER WYLDE should not be hard pressed to a third win in four starts en route to better things to come in the spring.  THE BLUE BOMBER would become a live threat should the ground cut up badly during the course of the day, whatever the reason.  Frost melting, passing showers or any other reason would give Mick Channon’s representative a chance of turning over the selection.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—River Wylde (good to soft)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—John Groucott (3/22 – Profit of 11 points)

3—Peter Brown (5/46 – loss of 11 points)

3—Donald McCain (2/58 – loss of 41 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (9/77 – loss of 38 points)

3—Evan Williams (41/253 – loss of 47 points)

2—Kim Bailey (10/77 – loss of 8 points)

2—David Dennis (4/37 – loss of 9 points)

2—Nicky Henderson (24/88 – loss of 32 points)

2—Paul Nicholls (6/31 – loss of 13 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (7/54 – slight loss)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (19/142 – loss of 60 points)

2—Venetia Williams (17/137 (loss of 58 points)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: £95.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £185.30 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £664.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday January 6

LUDLOW – JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £44.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 1 (An Siltean) & 5 (Ckalco Des Loges)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Overtown Express) & 2 (Baby KIng)

Leg 3 (1.50): 4 (Ballyhenry), 2 (Will O’The West) & 1 (Abricot De L’Aosis)

Leg 4 (2.20): 1 (Lord Landen), 2 (Midnight Jade) & 4 (Midnight Folie)

Leg 5 (2.50): 1 (Fidux) & 4 (Dan Bersy)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Pearlesque), 3 (Oh Michelle) & 5 (Tangley)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) spilt the four contests to date, though the younger set lead 7-5 relating to the twelve vintage representatives which have totally dominated the Placepot positions.  Five-year-old beaten favourite CKALCO DES LOGES should lead the relevant vintage raiders home, though whether Dan Skelton’s raider will beat six-year-old AN SILTEAN is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner at 5/2) though as so often seems to be the case, the shortest Priced (8/11) market leader was the jolly which let the side down from a Placepot perspective.

 

1.20: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, stats which only support the chance Harry Fry’s top weighted raider          OVERTOWN EXPRESS on this occasion.  With six of the last nine runners from the stable having won, Niall Madden’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  There might be an argument made that BABY KING could atone for his beaten favourite status, especially with the Tom George team in such fine form.  This pair should certainly see us through the next leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame by winning its relevant event at odds of 15/8.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/2—Upsanddowns (good)

 

1.50: All four horses to have claimed Placepot position to date have carried 11-4 or more, brief stats which bring in the likes of BALLYHENRY, WILL O’THE WEST and ABRICOT DE L’OASIS this time around.  If there is a danger lurking below the weight barrier, Alan King’s MIDNIGHT COWBOY could emerge as the joker in the pack, bearing in mind that I readily admit that the trend is very much a work in progress at this early stage.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/4—Midnight Target (good)

 

2.20: The bottom three horses in this ‘dead eight’ event fail the weight trend enquiry, whilst Midnight Folie is too young to win the race from what we have witnessed via four previous contests.  That leaves four horses to assess, the pick of which should prove to be LORD LANDEN and MIDNIGHT JADE.  As you might have deduced, all four winners have been aged at eight or more, whilst the relevant gold medallists all carried a minimum burden of 11-2.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to MIDNIGHT FOLIE despite the fact that Ben Pauling’s seven-year-old only possesses one tick in the two relevant trend boxes.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one (85/40) winner.

 

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2.50: Alan King has been mopping up these juvenile hurdle events of late and this contest looks there for the taking for stable representative FIDUX who was a winner at the first time of asking at Catterick at the end of November.  Battling on well that day to land a close finish, Wayne Hutchinson’s mount looks poised to successfully give upwards of seven pounds to all six rivals.  Providing a heavy fall has not left a scar on DON BERSY, the Tom Symonds raider looks set to offer most resistance when the whips are up.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Ludlow card.

 

3.20: Nicky Henderson’s newcomer PEARLESQUE would not have be in possession of bundles of ability to go close at the first time of asking in this grade/company, especially when offering OH MICHELLE and TANGLEY as possible dangers. Both horses represent top trainers in Nigel Twiston-Davies and Harry Fry respectively, though such beasts would be a long way down the pecking order in both camps I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Both the (10/11 & 13/8) favourites have finished well down their respective fields to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 winners—Harry Fry (4/20 – loss of 3 points)

3—David Bruce (0/2)

3—Nicky Henderson (24/88 – loss of 32 points)

3—Alan King (8/40 – Profit of seven points)

3—Dan Skelton (11/55 – slight loss)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (19/142 – loss of 60 points)

3—Evan Williams (41/253 (loss of 47 points)

2—David Bridgwater (1/25 – loss of 22 points)

2—Steve Flook (4/37 – Slight Profit)

2—Sue Gardner (0/10)

2—John Groucott (3/22 – Profit of 11 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (7/54 – slight loss)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/77 – loss of 38 points)

2—Ben Pauling (4/25 – Profit of 3 points)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: No history attached to this meeting

Kempton (A/W): £1,858.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £52.40 – favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Kempton : Gracious Tom @ 6/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 - Tracked leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, chased winner but well held inside final furlong, weakened and lost two places near finish

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Ludlow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danceintothelight @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 8 lengths last time out, that was 8 days ago under today's jockey making all at Catterick and similar tactics could well be at play today by a horse that has made the frame in each of his last five starts.

He's trained by Donald McCain, whose runners are in decent form, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) in the last fortnight with his hurdlers winning 6 of 19 (31.^%) for profits of 22.46pts at an ROI of 118.2%.

And since the start of 2012, Donald's handicap hurdlers who won LTO, 1-30 days ago are 13/63 (20.6% SR) for 22.4pts (+35.6% ROI) with those last seen 6-25 days back winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) for 41.4pts (+94.1%).

In addition to the yard's own good numbers, over the last 5 yrs in UK NH handicap hurdle contests, males who won LTO by 4 or more lengths LTO 3-60 days ago are 330 from 1304 (25.3% SR) for 200.6pts (+15.4% ROI), of which...

  • those who won by 5 to 15 lengths LTO : 220/832 (26.4%) for 198pts (+23.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 129/420 (30.7%) for 84pts (+20%)
  • 4-10 days since last run : 148/398 (37.2%) for 83.7pts (+21%)
  • Class 5 winners LTO : 113/251 (32.2%) for 90.6pts (+25.8%)
  • 9/10 yr olds are 46/162 (28.4%) for 72.4pts (+44.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 8/20 940%) for 1.25pts (+6.25%)

AND...I've not given you a composite micro to store for a while, so how about... 4-10 yr old males / Class 4-5 hcp hurdles / 11-1 and shorter / 4-45 dslr / won hcp hrd by 5-15 L LTO? Backing these over the last 5yrs gives 130 winners from 348 (37.4% SR) and level stakes profits of some 176.8pts at an ROI of 50.8%.

...and...a 1pt win bet on Danceintothelight at 11/4 BOG which was available in at least four places (Bet365 preferred, BetVictor, Hills & Racebets at 7.05pm on Tuesday, whilst 5/2 BOG was widely on offer elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ludlow

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard