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Stat of the Day, 10th October 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Catterick : Chitra @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden to challenge over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held near finish by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £6563 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding's record of 3 wins and a place from 22 starts in handicap hurdle contests isn't admittedly the best, but he did win this contest last year off the same mark (108) as this year under the same jockey, Bridget Andrews, who claims a 3lb allowance. And like last year he reappears 12 days after a defeat at Worcester on softer ground than this contest.

Whilst that 3+1/22 record isn't amazing, it does look better under today's conditions, where he is...

  • 3+1 from 12 off a mark of 101 to 110
  • 2+ 1 from 10 over this 2m trip
  • 2 from 5 on good to firm ground
  • 2 from 5 racing 8 to 12 days after his last run
  • 1 from 4 at Ludlow
  • 1 from 4 over course and distance

He's trainer Dan Skelton's only runner at this track today and since 2014, Dan's Class 4 hurdlers have won 16 of 54 (29.6% SR) for 13.7pts (+25.4% ROI) here at Ludlow and these include...

  • males at 12/41 (29.3%) for 13.66pts (+33.3%)
  • at 10/1 and shorter : 16/39 (41%) for 28.7pts (+73.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f/2m : 10/36 (27.8%) for 8.06pts (+22.4%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 13/34 (38.2%) for 23.61pts (+69.5%)
  • in handicaps : 5/15 (3.3%) for 8.34pts (+55.6%)
  • off a mark of 105-115 : 5/8 (62.5%) for 13.47pts (+168.4%)
  • runner-up LTO : 5/7 (71.4%) for 6.05pts (+86.4%)
  • in October : 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.29pts (+104.8%)
  • and his only runner at the track : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.36pts (+378.7%)

And from the above...males racing over 1m7.5f/2m at odds of 10/1 and shorter some 11-45 days after their last run are 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+149.4% ROI) including Excellent Team's win in this race last year.

I do like to look for in-form course and distance winners, because since the start of 2013 in handicap hurdles, horses with the little CD logo next to their name who either won or lost by no more than 2 lengths LTO are 254 from 1126 (22.6% SR) for 220.2pts (+19.6% ROI), from which of note today...

  • 11-60 days since last run : 184/840 (21.9%) for 178.2pts (+21.2%)
  • runner-up LTO : 39/152 (25.7%) for 85.3pts (+56.1%)
  • runners-up 11-25 days earlier are 17/63 (27%) for 44.4pts (+70.4%)
  • here at Ludlow : 10/27 (37%) for 37.1pts (+137.3%)
  • and at Ludlow 11-20 days after their last run : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.05pts (+122.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent Team @ 3/1 BOG, a price widely available from 6.30pm on Tuesday evening.  To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 13th May

PLUMPTON – MAY 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £163.10 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 52.8% units went through – Evens* & 16/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 46.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 4: 45.5% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 20/1

Race 5: 47.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 17/2 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 6: 40.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* (Win only event – 4 ran)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Jumping Jack) & 2 (Crushed)

Leg 2 (2.45): 10 (Sweet’N’Chic), 6 (Good News) & 5 (Now Listen here)

Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Ballycoe), 3 (Darebin), 2 (The Fresh Prince) & 1 (Red Hanrahan)

Leg 4 (3.50): 1 (Makethedifference), 3 (Kalaskadesemilley) & 9 (Austin Fryers)

Leg 5 (4.25): 2 (Whoshotwho) & 3 (Mellow Ben)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (King Cool), 4 (Remember Forever) & 5 (Hill Fort)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last thirteen contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  Unfortunately, last year’s only vintage representative was beaten but this time around, you have no chance of losing money because no five-year-olds have been declared. The stats become even more frustrating when you digest the fact that Gary Moore is only conspicuous by his absence despite saddling two of the last three winners! Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that JUMPING JACK should at least secure a Placepot position if he fails to win which is doubtful because at the time of writing, CRUSHED (the horse I suspected to be the main danger) is friendless on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (four winners), whilst 30 of the 40 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.  Gary improved those stats last year by scoring with the even money favourite.

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2.45: This is the first of five races which witness 11 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, over a quarter of the list of declarations in those events.  This was the race which helped the Placepot to produce a half decent dividend last year.  That said, the pot was worth £6.62 (after deductions) following the first two legs and with a win only race later on the card, holders of live Placepot units might have thought they were in a for a great dividend later in the day.  Back to basics by informing that seven of the last eight winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which suggests that SWEET’N’CHIC should be there or thereabouts, though the 7/2 trade press quote looks a tad skinny.  KEEP TO THE BEAT is one of the other two qualifiers via the weight trend to consider, though more logical winners include GOOD NEWS and NOW LISTEN HERE according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  Four of the last five winners scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1, whilst a 20/1 chance filled the runner-up position twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Cassivellanus (heavy)

 

3.15: This was the Placepot finale last year when the favourite won at 11/8 in a win only event.  Out of interest, the winner was 6/4 in terms of the remaining Placepot units going into the final leg.  These win only Placepot events tend to reflect the starting prices unless there are real outsiders in the contest.  One recent event I focussed on concerned a horse which was backed down to 7/1 from double those odds (without winning) which was a 52/1 chance via Placepot percentages!  With fifteen of the last sixteen winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just four) in the line up, with BALLYCOE being the exception on this occasion.  As the outsider of the party in the dead of night, I’m certainly not ruling out his chance, whereby I will include all four runners before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 15 renewals of this contest have been won by market leaders.  Half (8/16) of the jollies have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ballycoe (good)

 

3.50: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals (vintage representatives come to the gig on a hat trick this time around) though arguably their main hope AUSTIN FRYERS has plenty to prove following an indifferent set of ‘recent’ results.  Either way, preference is for NAME THE DIFFERENCE (subject of overnight support) and KALASKADESEMILLEY.  GIN AND TONIC would have also made the short list but for noticing that his ratio of placed efforts between April and September stands at 0/11.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured Placepot positions via seven renewals to date, statistics which include four successful (7/2, 2/1, 15/8 & even money) market leaders.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/4—Austin Fryers (good)

1/3—Brother Bennett (good to soft)

 

4.25:  DING DING was third in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting two years ago before finishing last of the seven finishers in this event twelve months back.  Sheena West’s seven year old registered a course ratio of 3/9 before that contest prior to the updated figures you can see below.  Nicky Henderson saddled a well beaten runner in the contest last year, whereby slight preference is for WHOSHOTWHO and MELLOW BEN over Brave Eagle who might represent poor value for money, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:

4/14—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/3—San Pedro De Senam (heavy)

2/16—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

 

4.55: A teaser of a finale in our closing event, with my short list consisting of KING COOL, REMEMBER FOREVER and HILL FORT, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished second (claiming Placepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before the 10/3 favourite went on the missing list two years ago.  Thankfully (for favourite backers), the 13/8 market leader obliged twelve months on.

Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Remember Forever (good to firm)

3/20—Flugzeug (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/8—Roparta Avenue (good)

1/5—Charming Lad (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 8th May

EXETER – MAY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,815.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.6% units went through – 4/9* & 5/1

Race 2: 1.7% of the remaining units when through – 20/1 (Win only) – (4/11)

Race 3: 35.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 3/1 (11/4)

Race 4: 24.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4 (11/10)

Race 5: 40.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 7/4*

Race 6: 48.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 7/2 (7/4)

 

*Point of Order – Although there are no scheduled ‘win only’ races on the card, it’s as well to digest the fact that such races can have a dramatic effect on Placepot dividends, as was the case at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.

The second race on the card was won by a 20/1 chance which in Placepot terms relating to the units that went up in smoke, turned out to be a 56/1 scenario!  The ‘transparency’ was extended by the fact that two non-runners created the ‘win only’ event, units which were transferred onto the favourite via Placepot rules.

Similarly, the fourth race was won by the 7/4 second favourite, but the winner was selected by less than 25% of the clients who held remaining tickets at the time.

Just six runners are entered for the 7.50 event tonight whereby you should ensure that two runners (or more) are not withdrawn – before you place your Placepot wagers!

 

Tueday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Secret Escape) & 12 (Tillythetank)

Leg 2 (6.20): 4 (Champ) & 12 (Rockpoint)

Leg 3 (6.50): 3 (Coningsby), 15 (Eddy) & 1 (Katy P)

Leg 4 (7.20): 1 (Marquis Of Carabas), 7 (Lip Service) & 9 (Innocent Girl)

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Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (The Two Amigos) & 6 (Mistress Massini)

Leg 6 (8.20): 11 (Grey Diamond), 3 (Net De Treve) & 12 (Jeremiah James)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.50: The first two races on the card appear to be ‘match events’ if early indications from the exchanges are to be believed.  It would certainly create a huge surprise/potentially massive Placepot dividend here if both SECRET ESCPAE and TILLYTHETANK finished out of the frame.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Exeter.

 

6.20: CHAMP and ROCKPOINT should similarly dominate the second contest on the card.

Favourite factor: Another new event on the Exeter programme but given the strength of the projected favourites/well fancied pair of horses in each of the first two races on the card, I’m not at all sure these contests will in in place twelve months hence.

 

6.50: EDDY has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety via five assignments at this venue down the years and though I am invariable well wide of the mark relating to Sue Gardner’s runners (they win of I ignore them and flop when I take the plunge), 16/1 looks a tad over the top about EDDY who recorded the victory here on (good) going which should be in place tonight.  That said, Tom Lacey came into this meeting last year having scored with two of his previous four runners and sure enough, the horse I focussed on (in the last race this evening) obliged at 5/2.  Tom’s run of hot form is even better this year (current ratio of 16/33) and his only runner on the card runs in this event, namely CONINGSBY. My trio against the field is completed by KATY P who has the fast conditions in favour for another decent offering in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored though bookmakers have not had things going all their way, with six of the last eight gold medallists having won at a top price of 5/1.  Only one of the last six market leaders has secured a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Zero Grand (good to soft)

1/2—Just A Sting (good to soft)

1/2—Jully Les Buxy (soft)

1/5—Eddy (good)

 

7.20: Eight-year-olds won all four of the renewals when represented which suggests that the lone vintage representative MARQUIS OF CARABAS could outrun his current 12/1 odds which are in place with several bookmakers at the time of writing.  Fergal O’Brien has wasted little time in entering LIP SERVICE now that the ground has improved, whilst INNOCENT GIRL has to be included for similar (ground) reasons alongside her impressive consistency.  Harry Fry’s mare is a winner of three of her eight races on good ground thus far.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have prevailed, though the other pair of market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Casper King (soft)

1/5—Triple Chief (soft)

2/8—Bredon Hill Lad (soft & heavy)

 

7.50: As was the case in the previous race on the card, eight-year-olds have the best recent record here having secured four victories during the last decade.  This fact will offer confidence to connections of Creative Inerta I’ll wager though according to form figures, both THE TWO AMIGOS and MISTRESS MASSINI will take plenty of kicking out of the Placepot frame.  Indeed, the booking of William Biddick looks particularly significant relating to the latter named raider.

Favourite factor: The last eleven winners (in as many years) have scored at 6/1 or less, statistics which include four winning favourites.

 

8.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewal and the trade press prices of relevant declarations GREY DIAMOND and JEREMIAH JAMES should not put you off their respective chances in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Indeed, their 10/1 and 16/1 quotes look wide of the mark with likelier starting prices of around 6/1 and 9/1 (respectively) looking entirely possible.  NET DE TRVE and RUFIO are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, four of which returned at odds varying between 11/1 and 16/1.  The last five favourites have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 24th April

BRIGHTON – APRIL 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £56.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 32.5% units went through – 3/1 & 9/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 67.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/1 – 9/4* - 10/3

Race 3: 47.6% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* & 9/2

Race 4: 43.7% of the remaining units went through –8/1 – 13/2 – 3/1 (5/2)

Race 5: 83.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 6/1 – 13/8*

Race 6: 34.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* & 20/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (4.15): 4 (Baltic Prince) & 3 (Tigerwolf)

Leg 2 (4.50): 3 (It’s the Only Way), 6 (Al Manhalah) & 7 (Knockabout Queen)

Leg 3 (5.25): 7 (Andalusite), 3 (Art Echo) & 5 (Madrinho)

Leg 4 (5.55): 6 (Prince Jai), 3 (Violet’s Lads) & 10 (Joyful Dream)

Leg 5 (6.30): 7 (Becca Campbell), 8 (Let’s Be Happy) & 6 (Poetic Force)

Leg 6 (7.05): 10 (The Secret’s Out) & 2 (Hint Of Grey)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.15: BALTIC PRINCE is the each way call in the contest from my viewpoint, even though TIGERWOLF has a favourite’s chance in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Trainer Tony Carroll (BALTIC PRINCE) is on a great run just now, boasting a 40% strike rate via six recent winners, gold medallists which have produce 34 points of level stake profits during the period.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five market leaders secured Placepot positions (one winner) via three renewals.

Record of the four course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Ocean Temptress (good to soft)

1/8—Swiss Cross (good to firm)

1/3—Baltic Prince (good)

4/25—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)

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4.50: KNOCKABOUT QUEEN was as green as grass at the first time of asking and can only do better for in form Mick Channon, albeit I was expecting the Sixties Icon filly to be targeted at a more conventional track than Brighton where the gradients can catch seasoned thoroughbreds out on occasions.  That taken into account, I will hold back from a win perspective, whilst adding IT’S THE ONLY WAY and AL MANHALAH into my Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions via four renewals to date, statistics which include two winners.

 

5.25: Not the easiest ‘short field’ event to assess, with course and distance winners ART ECHO and ANDALUSITE being the first to horses short listed. John Gallagher saddles the latter named raider with the trainer boasting 24 winners at the track in eighteen year of having held a license.  John’s next best haul is ten (Goodwood) whereby you can detect that this must be his favourite venue.  ART ECHO won on soft ground when successful here, which probably means that I will add MADRINHO into the Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing before last year when the 7/2 market leader snared a silver medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card.

1/1—Sayesse (good to firm)

4/16—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/2—Art Echo (soft)

3/7—Andalusite (2 x good to firm & good)

 

5.55: Four-year-olds lead the five year-olds 10-6 in terms of the number of toteplacepot positions (21 up for grabs) gained via seven renewals, the two vintages having (equally) shared six of the seven contests to date.  I’m taking a trio of vintage representatives to get us through to the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, namely PRINCE JAI, VIOLETS LADS and JOYFUL DREAM.

Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/1, 7/2 & 11/4) winners.

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

1/4—Hidden Stash (good)

2/7—Indus Valley (good & good to firm)

3/13—Live Dangrously (2 x good to soft & good)

3/26—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

1/9—Ettie Hart (good to form)

 

6.30I’m struggling to put lines though the names of the two course winners here, despite both runners on offer at double figure prices at the time of writing.  BECCA CAMPBELL (Eve Johnson Houghton) and LET’S BE HAPPY (Ali Stronge) look sure to give supporters a decent run for their collective monies, nominating   POETIC FORCE as the potential joker in the pack as far as our outsiders are concerned.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest:

3/7—Becca Campbell (3 x good)

1/3—Let’s Be Happy (good to firm)

 

7.05: I have only left myself two options for the competitive looking Placepot finale but that said, the likes of THE SECRET’S OUT (should revert to consistent form now that he has had his pipe opener for the campaign) and HINT OF GREY (strong local contender for Gary Moore) can do the Placepot business for us in the lucky last.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Brighton card.

Record of the three course winners in the line up:

1/2—Hint Of Grey (good)

2/15—Solveig’s Song (good to form & good to soft)

2/10—With Approval (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th April

LUDLOW – APRIL 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.3% units went through – 15/8* & 9/2

Race 2: 22.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 84.0% of the remaining units went through – 1/2* & 7/2

Race 4: 46.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 11/4*

Race 5: 59.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 25/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 5/4* - 33/1 – 9/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 12 (Weebill) & 9 (Shalakar)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Western Climate), 6 (Goohar) & 7 (According To Harry)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Peruvian Bleu), 4 (Raise A Spark) & 2 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Ifandbutwhynot), 2 (Cut The Corner) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Molly Carew), 9 (Diva Du Maquis) & 5 (Goodgirlteresa)

Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Full Throttle) & 1 (Forever My Friend)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Although there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue to back BATTLE OF IDEAS at around the 8/1 mark, the general price on offer is 6/1 whereby Colin Tizzard’s raider is an each way player at best from my viewpoint.  More obvious winners are WEEBILL and SHALAKAR, though Venetia Williams (trains the latter named entry) will have connections doing rain dances this morning I’ll wager!

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged, as did four market leaders in the Placepot events on the card by an aggregate of 89 lengths!

 

2.50: The ground will hopefully have dried out enough for the three course winners in the field to offer Placepot investors plenty of hope in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  WESTERN CLIMATE, GOOHAR and ACCORDING TO HARRY are listed in order to preference to get us through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  Fourth Act is the class act in the field if any thoroughbred here can be used in those terms but horses who have run well with blinkers on for the first time do not have a good record in showing similar enthusiasm next time up according to my recollections from following the sport for well over fifty years.  In terms of runs/wins, Colin Tizzard’s raider should be a 13/2 chance via the percentages, not 5/2 as is currently the general offer.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame thus far by winning the relevant event at odds of 13/8.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/2—Western Climate (good)

1/4—Goohar (good to soft)

1/3—According To Harry (good)

 

3.25: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests and with vintage representative PERUVIAN BLEU boasting a 3/3 ratio at the track, you will not be surprised to learn that the Nick Williams raider is the first name on my team sheet.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RAISE A SPARK I fancy, whilst I’M A GAME CHANGER completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include three winners.  That said, only one of the other six market leaders additionally snared a Placepot position during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—I’m A Game Changer – good to soft)

3/3—Peruvian Bleu (3 x good)

 

3.55: Last year’s winner IFANDBUTWHYNOT carries six pounds less this time around despite racing off a two pound higher mark, stats which demand that I include Danny Cook’s mount into the equation.  CUT THE CORNER represents Alistair Ralph who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect, whilst ROCK ON ROCKY also boasts win and place claims.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/5—Colin’s Brother (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Ifandbutwynot (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

4.30: Neil Mulholland is back among the winners and the popular trainer looks to have quite a strong hand here via his two entries, namely MOLLY CAREW and GOODGIRLTERESA.  If Neil and his team are to be denied, DIVA DU MAQUIS appears to be the potential spoiler in the line up.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for mares) on the Ludlow card.

 

5.05: I have only left myself two options here on a competitive card if we hold back from breaking into the ‘family reserves’ in order to appease our Placepot appetite.  Last year’s winner FULL THROTTLE and FOREVER MY FRIEND have edged out Diplomate Sivola and Queen Olivia (represents value for money from an each way perspective) accordingly.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions via two renewals to date, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Forever My Friend (good to firm)

1/1—Full Throttle (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 22nd March

LUDLOW – MARCH 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.90 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 76.9% units went through – 2/9* (Win only)

Race 2: 90.4% of the remaining units when through – 1/10* (Win only)

Race 3: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 13/8

Race 4: 45.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 19.3 % of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 14/1 (4/5* unplaced)

Race 6: 71.6% of the units secured the dividend – 4/6* & 3/1

 

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 1 (Michael’s Mount) & 7 (Veiled Secret)

Leg 2 (3.00): 1 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 3 (3.35): 1 (Dans Le Vent), 2 (Silver Kayf) & 6 (Stage Summit)

Leg 4 (4.10): 4 (Tornado In Milan), 2 (Space Oddity) & 1 (Just Cameron)

Leg 5 (4.45): 2 (Opening Batsman), 1 (Grandioso) & 5 (Tugboat)

Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Birch Hill), 1 (Night Of Sin) & 7 (Awake At Midnight)

Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.30: The connections of MICHAEL’S MOUNT and VEILED SECRET could hardly have wished for a better outcome here and the pair look set to lock horns on the turn into the home straight.  The pair are listed in order of preference, fully expecting the third horse to pass the jamstick ten seconds or more behind the main protagonists.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions but that said, we had to wait until last year’s 2/9 market scored to break the favourite hoodoo from a win perspective.

 

3.00: All three win only races on the last year’s Placepot card were won by favourites at odds of 10/11, 2/9 & 1/10 and TREE OF LIBERTY looks like being sent off at an even shorter price this time around! Contrasting stats relating to trainer Kerry Lee can be found at the foot of the column today.  Kerry’s soft ground course and distance winner cannot be opposed, especially as the ground will still be ‘tacky’ at this stage of the afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/10 market leader duly obliged by five lengths.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Tree Of Liberty (soft)

 

3.35: The Ludlow Executive will be pleased that this new event has attracted a number of leading trainers, though ‘bit parts’ are only conspicuous by their absence if you will excuse my phrasing.  Jamie Snowden (saddles course winner DANS LE VENT) has enjoyed a wonderful start to 2018, boasting a 26% strike rate via ten winners which is a great reward for a trainer which still (surprisingly) has to attract his fair share of inmates from my viewpoint.  SILVER KAYF and STAGE SUMMIT appear to be the potential jokers in the pack if Jamie and his team are to be denied here, the yard having secured a 35/1 double with their only two runners (at Haydock) yesterday.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Dans Le Vent (good)

 

4.10: Although TORNADO IN MILAN ‘only’ boasts a 22% strike rate down the years, the fact remains that the ratio covers nine victories, whilst the Evan Williams inmate had secured an additions sixteen medals, eleven of which were of the silver variety. Richard Johnson takes only his eighth ride for the trainer during the last five years and as all of those assignment were recorded this season, the champion jockey will be anxious to land his first success for the yard this afternoon.  For the record, the trainer/jockey bandwagon only teams up once this afternoon.  Harry Fry has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect whereby his seven-year-old raider SPACE ODDITY might prove to be the main threat to the selection this afternoon, providing he does not unseat his partner, as was the case the last day in a two horse event!

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 10/11 market leader brought favourite backers some relief following the complete demise of the previous three jollies who had failed to claim a Placepot position between them.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/6—Tornado In Milan (good to soft)

 

4.45: TUGBOAT might be a 16/1 chance via the trade press quote this morning but it’s worth noting that two of his last three victories (six in total) have been gained here at Ludlow.  Not too many Hunter Chase events compete for the ‘Gold Cup’ at the respective venues but that is the case here and being a ‘spring horse’ (it is officially spring after all – could have fooled me), OPENING BATSMAN is a worthy favourite, even though his strike rate has plummeted down the years.  A winner of 5/9 races in March/April to date, it looks like being a ‘drying day’ at Ludlow this afternoon which could bring about his preferred good to soft conditions by flag fall which would be an added bonus.  GRANDIOSO (like Tugboat) has a chance to prove he in no back number just yet in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: None of the 4/5, 6/4 & 9/4 favourites have managed to add to the winning tally set by the inaugural winning 9/4 market leader four years ago.  Indeed, only the 6/4 favourite managed to add an additional Placepot position to the haul on behalf of the market leaders, which is unusual in Hunter Chase events.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/4—Grandioso (soft)

1/2—Opening Batsman (good to soft)

1/1—Mr Mercurial (soft)

2/5—Tugboat (good & soft)

 

5.15: Philip Hobbs is still struggling to leave behind an extremely poor set of results this winter by his high standards.  Indeed, Philip’s last fourteen runners have all been beaten whereby AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT can only be offered a Placepot chance which would not have been the case had Philip been firing in all cylinders.  One trainer’s loss is another’s gain as the saying goes, whereby Sophie Leech (BIRCH HILL) and Nick Williams (NIGHT OF SIN) might prove to be the main beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stats for Ludlow on Thursday:

It’s unfortunate that Tree Of Liberty is being quoted as a 1/33 chance in places this morning as trainer Kerry Lee boasts stats of 8/36 at the track in recent years.

That said, Kerry’s ratio since the turn of the year stands at 7/61 (a poor return by her standards) whereby the ‘mortgage’ money might best be left where it is at present.

 

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

8.15 Kempton : Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG WON at 11/10 (Chased leaders, driven over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Next up is Thursday's...

5.15 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £7,863 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has made the frame in each of his last three starts, winning once and was third last time out on handicap debut in a higher grade. He has rested over the winter and a second crack at a handicap at a lower grade might just do the trick today.

Trainer Tom Lacey has saddled four winners from just seven runners over the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2016, his NH handicappers are 31/118 (26.3% SR) for 84.3pts (+71.% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant and applicable today...

  • November-April : 28/97 (28.9%) for 91.4pts (+94.2%)
  • hurdlers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 83.6pts (+92.9%)
  • top 3 finisher LTO : 21/69 (30.4%) for 62.3pts (+90.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/47 (29.8%) for 57.7pts (+122.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/45 (31.1%) for 67pts (+148.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/36 (16.7%) for 23.8pts (+66%)
  • late season (ie Mar-Apr) : 9/25 (36%) for 16.8pts (+67.1%)
  • ridden by Robert Dunne : 8/23 (34.8%) for 35.8pts (+155.4%)
  • placed 3rd LTO : 5/15 933.3%) for 24.1pts (+160.6%)
  • down 1 class : 5/11 945.5%) for 24.1pts (+219.3%)
  • 4 to 10 months off track : 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.4pts (+105.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 1/1 (100%) for 1.79pts (+179%)

A secondary layer of reassurance comes from the fact that also since the start of 2016, handicap jumpers sired by Passing Glance are 8 from 49 (16.3% SR) for 26pts (+53% ROI) on soft or worse ground, including...

  • males at 8/38 (21.1%) for 37pts (+97.2%)
  • on Soft : 7/32 (21.9%) for 8.7pts (+27.2%)
  • males on Soft : 7/24 (29.2%) for 16.7pts (+69.6%)
  • Class 3 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.35pts (+26.1%)
  • and Class 3 males on Soft are 2/5 (40%) for 6.35pts (+127%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power (the first two to show) at 5.25pm on Wednesday, with some 6/1 BOG offered by Bet365 for those lucky/quick enough to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st February

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £845.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed 3 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Awake At Midnight), 16 (Pearl Of The West) & 6 (Lord Napier)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Town Parks), 2 (Coastal Tiep), 3 (Rayvin Black) & 4 (Seymour Star)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Otter Moon) & 3 (Royal Irish Hussar)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Spider’s Bite) & 8 (The Devils Drop)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Master Of Finance), 2 (Vocaliser) & 7 (Road To Rome)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 1/3 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around.  AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT and LORD NAPIER head my overnight ratings.  For the record, six-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer though that said, money is piling up for PEARL OF THE WEST in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Perhaps that scenario is unfolding with the uncertainty of the Philip Hobbs runners just now regarding AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT.  Philip is not running many horses just now which is understandable given his 1/23 ratio this month though on the flip side, market leaders have a fabulous record in this event if Richard Johnson’s mount can cling on to favouritism.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (11/4, 7/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.

 

2.25: This new race comes under the ‘find me at the bar’ heading because as a ‘win only’ contest with little to choose between the quartet at first glance, the move is to include all four runners, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  For the record, Kerry Lee’s hat trick seeker Town Parks would be the call if I was forced to make a nomination.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Town Parks (soft)

1/1—Rayvin Black (good)

2/4—Seymour Star (2 x soft)

 

3.00: Five of the last six winners have carried 11-3 or more to victory but with jockey claims forcing a few runners under the ‘superior burden barrier’, ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR makes some appeal which might not have been the case if FIXED RATE had not been ridden by a ten pound ‘conditional’ on this occasion.  OTTER MOON just manages to keep in the right half of the handicap and the Tom George raider represents the main threat to Nicky’s 9/1 chance at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Excellent Team (good to firm)

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3.30: It will be interest to see If Ghoohar is supported at a top price of 11/1 later this morning as there is plenty of speculative money in the positive queue on the exchanges this morning in and around ‘15’ which makes for interesting reading regarding Henry Daly’s raider, especially with the trainer having his horses in blinding form just now.  That said, HORATIO HORNBLOWER and CAPTAIN BUCK’S are more logical choices, especially if you are looking to have a bet from a win perspective whilst organising your Placepot wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Kap Jazz (soft)

 

4.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals and course winner SPIDERS BITE makes plenty of appeal here for Henry Daly and his in form team. Richard Johnson will be keen to ride another winner given that the champion jockey has ‘only’ ridden one of his last eleven mounts to winning effect, another example of how much ‘Dickie’ has also suffered with the Philip Hobbs runners generally running below par this month as stated in the analysis in the opening contest.  THE DEVILS DROP deserves the favourite tag here however, and Alan King’s representative will pose a real threat to the marginal selection if producing his best form this afternoon. CEAREAL KILLER also enters the mix, albeit as definite third choice.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Spiders Bite (good)

 

4.40: There has to be a chance that the official assessor has caught up with Lake field by now and I am offering the speculative trio of MASTER OF FINANCE, VOCALISER and ROAD TO ROME against the projected favourite in our finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader trailed in last of the five finishers behind horses which filled the ‘short field’ frame at odds of 7/2 & 8/1.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) & then their five year ratios + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

5 runners—Robin Dickin (1/78 – loss of 3 points) – 3/57 – loss of 18

5—Venetia Williams (0/13) – 12/129 – loss of 75

3—Kim Bailey (8/24 +12) – 18/101 +3

3—Paul Nicholls (2/7 +2) – 7/33 – loss of 13

2—Henry Daly (4/19 – loss of 2) – 21/107 – loss of 19

2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 0/11

2—Steve Flook (0/2) – 2/35 – loss of 2

2—Nicky Henderson (4/19 –loss of 2) – 29/99 – loss of 17

2—Kerry Lee (2/6 +1) – 8/34 – slight loss

2—Donald McCain (0/6) – 3/65 – loss of 38

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 0/8

2—Alistair Ralph (1/8 – loss of 2) – 3/19 +18

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/39 – loss of 16

2—Dan Skelton (4/21 – loss of 2) – 22/99 – loss of 12

2—Pam Sly (1/1 +3) – 3/7 +10

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £4.90 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,035.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Wetherby : Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 Led to 2nd, led again before 5th, headed 5th, weakened after 5 out...

Next up is Wednesday's...

5.10 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Creation @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 2m5.5f handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £5,263 to the winner and a shorter priced pick than I'm usually comfortable with...

Why?

Because it's pretty poor stuff out there and most of those that I like from stats angle are even shorter!

But the reasons why this one ticked some boxes begin with the excellent start she has made to her racing career, making the fame in four of six starts, picking up three wins along the way. Amongst those races so far, she is...

  • 3 from 4 in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 2 from 3 going right handed
  • 1 from 1 here at Ludlow
  • 1 from 1 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Ned Curtis

In fact, Ned was on board last time out, when she won at Haydock by six lengths 53 days ago over 2m3f on heavy ground at this grade, so stamina hopefully won't be her undoing.

That LTO win also qualifies her for one of my LTO winner micro-systems, whose rules/criteria seem more complicated in print than they are in practice, but here goes...

Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdle races over 3 miles or shorter / horses aged 5 to 11 yrs old / won a hcp hurdle LTO by 4 lengths or more and are now running under the following conditions : same class or up one grade from LTO / off a mark (OR) equal or up to 14lbs higher than LTO and at a trip ranging from 4.5f shorter to 3.5f longer than LTO.

Since the start of 2013, we've had 987 qualifiers fitting the above criteria, so it's a decent sample size that has yielded 303 winners (30.7% SR) for profits of 341.7pts at an ROI of 34.6% and include of relevance today...

  • same class as LTO : 194/565 (34.3%) for 194.72pts (+34.5%)
  • won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO : 139/451 (30.8%) for 193.17pts (+42.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 138/439 (31.4%) for 118.75pts (+27.1%)
  • 6 yr olds are 81/277 (29.2%) for 55.5pts (+20.1%)
  • on Soft ground : 73/246 (29.7%) for 74.76pts (+30.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 60/207 (29%) for 93.45pts (+45.1%)
  • up in trip by 1.5f to 3.5f : 59/187 (31.6%) for 90pts (+48.1%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 12/28 (42.9%) for 10.77pts (+38.5%)

I think most people are aware of trainer Nicky Henderson's decent record here at Ludlow in the last few years (his hurdlers are 21 from 64 here since 2013), so I'm not going to bore you with those details, but I'm going to end with a quick note (or two!) about War Creation's father, Scorpion, whose offspring are 13 from 75 (17.3% SR) for 134.75pts (+179.7% ROI) in handicap jumps races on soft ground or worse since the start of 2017.

Those figures don't actually include Tuesday's results where one of his three progeny running went and won at 10/1 (Hoo Bally Diva at Taunton), but do contain the following...

  • over trips of 2m to 2m5.5f : 12/51 (23.5%) for 154.91pts (+303.8%)
  • on soft ground : 7/50 (14%) for 121.15pts (+242.3%)
  • over hurdles : 6/47 (12.8%) for 114.24pts (+243.1%)

AND...in soft ground handicap hurdles over 2m to 2m5.5f : 4/21 (19.1% SR) for 128.18pts (+610.4% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Creation @ 9/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and a couple of minor payers at 5.45pm onTuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 7th February

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £5.40 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (Doux Pretender) & 1 (Solomon Grey)

Leg 2 (2.10): 2 (Tree Of Liberty) & 3 (Copain De Classe)

Leg 3 (2.40): 8 (War Creation), 7 (Oscar Rose) & 3 (Whatzdjazz)

Leg 4 (3.15): 6 (Monsieur Co), 2 (Minella Present) & 3 (Colin’s Brother)

Leg 5 (3.45): 1 (Esprit De Somoza) & 5 (High Or Never)

Leg 6 (4.15): 12 (Queen Olivia), 1 (Wells De Lune) & 4 (Dabinett Moon)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: After another good day yesterday (832 points of profit), we can go into battle with an air confidence I'll wager.  Although SOLOMON GREY is a solid 4/7 chance right across the boards at the time of writing, the Skelton raider is edging towards 8/11 on the exchanges and being quite exposed now, I’m not sure that as a winner of just one of his four races on our racecourses that he represents value for money.  The problem of course is finding an alternative option, though money is coming in for the Henderson raider DOUX PRETENDER and if I had to choose between the pair, I would opt for Noel Fehily’s latter named mount.

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Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Ludlow.

 

2.10: All the early 15/8 and 7/4 offers about TREE OF LIBERTY have been gobbled up now and it’s not difficult to envisage a starting price of around 6/4 being returned about Kerry Lee’s Stowaway gelding.  Kerry’s course and distance winner has certain been offered another winning chance, despite the declarations of hat trick seeker DRUMCLIFFE and COPAIN DE CLASSE having been made.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Ludlow programme.

 

2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests and WAR CREATION, OSCAR ROSE and WHATZDJAZZ look likely types to improve the record of vintage representatives still further.  The trio is listed in order of preference, with the popular yellow, white and green colours of Trevor Hemming expected to rise to the top once again.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites in recent times have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (11/4) winner which scored last year for Alan King who was not represented at the penultimate stage this year.

 

3.15: Irish trainer Tony Martin is testing the water this side of the Irish Sea before his customary spring raids on the Festivals, though I’m passing over Dallas Cowboy in such a competitive heat, preferring the likes of MONSIEUR CO, MINELLA PRESENT and COLIN’S BROTHER on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed via six renewals during the last decade, whilst two of the other four market leaders also finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.45: Rebecca Curtis is enduring another slow season by her high standards and when your luck is out, you tend to run into well placed horses, as is evident this afternoon.  Ordinarily, you might have expected Rebecca to have scored with HIGH OR NEVER next time out after some promising efforts, though Nick Williams is expected to be the latest trainer to thwart Rebecca and her team having declared his impressive Huntingdon winner ESPRIT DE SOMOZA.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.15: The layers look like they want to take on Module today and with half decent types like QUEEN OLIVIA, WELLS DE LIUNE and (arguably) DABINETT MOON in opposition, I can see why, notwithstanding the fact that Module has not been showing his true ability for some time now.  The former Game Spirit Chase winner Module could make a mockery of the contest in his first Hunter Chase assignment but from a Placepot perspective, there is no value by including the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: The 5/2 favourite won the first running of this event twelve months ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: This is essentially a new meeting

Carlisle: £36.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This a new addition to the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 18th January

 

LUDLOW – JANUARY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£465.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Melangerie) & 9 (Passing Call)

Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Shaama Gris), 2 (Happy Diva), 1 (Copper Kay) & 3 (Midnight Target)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Aubusson), 5 (Champagne At Tara) & 3 (Sego Success)

Leg 4 (2.35): 4 (Gortroe Joe), 10 (Master Tradesman) & 2 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 5 (3.10): 1 (Mendip Express) & 2 (Now Ben)

Leg 6 (3.45): 9 (Gamain) & 6 (Allbarnine)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.00:  James Bowen let the side down relating to his mount Percy Street at Newbury on Wednesday, though MELANGERIE looks a slightly more resolute type with which to go to war with, now accepting that the jockey’s ratio for Nicky Henderson this season has slipped to 5/10!  MELANGERIE came good at the third time of asking over course and distance timber under similar conditions the last day, with connections probably having most to fear from PASSING CALL who represents Alan King who has a decent record at the venue, as you can determine at the foot of the column.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Ludlow with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Melangerie (soft)

 

1.30: Putting the words mares, novices and steeplechase together does not install a great deal of confidence, especially when contemplating a ‘win only’ event.  The 14/1 quote about Midnight Target is not even off-putting (Paddy Power are well over the top early doors this morning – as short as 8/1 elsewhere), especially as John Croucott’s mare is the only course winner in the line-up representing a trainer whose record here is better than at most other venues.  Yes, the other trio boast more obvious winning claims, though not enough to leave the outsider out of the Placepot mix.  For the record, the ‘main contenders’ are listed in marginal order of preference as SHAAMA GRIS, HAPPY DIVA and COPPER KAY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite duly prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/8—Midnight Target (good)

 

2.00:  Four of the last seven runners saddled by Nick Williams have won, stats which include a 167/1 treble yesterday when Nick’s fourth contender on the day secured a silver medal.  Nick’s only two runners today run on this card, the first of which is AUBUSSON who is overdue another success to add to the four successes thus far, albeit the last of those victories was boasted over two years ago.  The switch back to more conventional fencing following two cross country assignments might bring about a return to winning form.  CHAMPAGNE AT TARA has been a similarly frustrating sort in recent times, whilst SEGO SUCCESS completes what I confess to being a ‘speculative’ trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

 

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2.35:  Richard Mitford-Slade (two of his last four runners have won) is the latest trainer to take advantage of the outrageous five poind claim of James Bowen and it’s worth noting that the relevant horse MASTER TREADESMAN has been the subject of some overnight support at big prices.  At the time of writing at least, the 25/1 quote in the trade press for the seven-year-old looks fanciful.  Others of some interest in a disappointing event include GORTROE JOE and DARIUS DES BOIS.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

 

3.10: No matter which way you throw the dice in these amateur rider events, jockeyship is of maximum importance and with MENDIP EXPRESS and NOW BEN being ridden by good pilots with plenty of experience in the saddle, their respective Placepot chances are there for all to see, not that I would be having any other bet in the contest.  Virak hit an official ‘dizzy height’ of 159 two years ago but just six subsequent assignments have seen his rating drop 20 pounds and until we witness a return to form by the Paul Nicholls raider, I will swerve the nine-year-old, despite the concession of weight by my two ‘selections’.
Favourite factor: The Hunter Chase event on the card is another new race at Ludlow today.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Now Ben (good)

2/4—Tugboat (good & soft)

 

3.45: Given the Nick Williams stats offered in the third race, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the Placepot claims (at least) of GAMAIN who is due to carry five pounds in future, whatever result transpires this afternoon.  ALLBARNONE is the first Gary Hanmer inmate to take to the racecourse in a while whereby the overnight support for the ten-year-old catches the eye, especially with a five pound claimer in the plate.  The reserve nomination is awarded to THE SWEENEY in a race which will not take a great deal of winning, despite the number of runners facing the starter.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/14 +2) – 32/113 – loss of 21 points

4—Dan Skelton (4/17 +1) – 22/95 – loss of 8

3—John Groucott (0/7) – 4/36 +4

3—Philip Hobbs (0/14) – 28/127 – loss of 17

2—Rebecca Curtis (1/6 – level profit/loss this season) – 9/59 – loss of 30

2—Henry Daly (3/17 – loss of 6) – 23/133 – loss of 36

2—Nigel Hawke (0/3) – 2/22 +6

2—Alan King (1/5 +10) – 12/57 +12

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 3/72 – loss of 45

2—Graeme McPherson (2/4 +20) – 2/28 – loss of 4

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/14 – loss of 6) – 10/102 – loss of 55)

2—John O’Shea (0/1) – 0/32

2—David Pipe (1/10 – loss of 4) 10/65 – marginal loss

2—Katy Price (0/2) – 1/7 – loss of 3 points

2—Venetia Williams (0/11) – 21/162 – loss of 71

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: £96.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £87.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 1 unplaced – 1 N/R

Southwell: £250.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 10th January

LUDLOW – JANUARY 10

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 11 (Zalvados) & 8 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 2 (1.20): 6 (Monbeg Oscar), 13 (Comrade Conrad) & 9 (Shall We Go Now)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Wandrin Star), 7 (Dark Mahler) & 8 (Megabucks)

Leg 4 (2.25): 8 (Flashjack) & 10 (Galactic Power)

Leg 5 (3.00): 11 (Tb Broke Her), 3 (Nansaroy) & 5 (Gooher)

Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Ask Catkin), 8 (The Last Bar) & 2 (Fille Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: There is some each way money knocking about for SHIVERMETIMBERS and the soft ground Warwick bumper winner gets the alternative each way shout to the hot favourite in the contest, especially with Charlie Deutsch still remaining decent value for his three pound claim.  ZALVADOS hardly represent value at around the 4/7 mark but his trainer Oliver Greenall has surely found a good opportunity for his Soldier Of Fortune gelding in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby no previous results apply.

 

1.20: SHALL WE GO NOW would not be one of the leading lights back at the Harry Fry ranch but his Placepot chance is not dismissed in such a poor contest.  Beaten on all five assignments in this country (favourite on three occasions), MONBEG OSCAR has broken a few hearts/investors already but like Zalvados in the opening event on the card, the Evan Williams representative will surely finish in the frame, even if only the layers are applauding him after the race.  COMRADE CONRAD is the other plausible winner in the field.

 

1.55: DARK MAHLER shone through the gloom at the last meeting here at Ludlow and Emma Lavelle’ s raider in expected to go close to following up, even though Kim Bailey’s WANDRIN STAR will be fancied by his in form connections.  Throw the each way alternative option MEGABUCKS into the equation and we have quite a good contest to witness.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Secret Door (soft)

1/1—Old Salt (soft)

1/1—Dark Mahler (good)

 

2.25: There is some semi serious money in the realistic positive queue for the only course winner in the field, namely GALACTIC POWER, with Robin Dickin’s Gamut gelding offering some opposition to FLASHJACK at the time of writing.  Henry Daly’s recent winner (escapes a penalty) represents a yard which if flying at present and this pair will do for me against the remaining 15 contenders.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

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1/2—Galactic Power (good to soft)

 

3.00: NANSAROY and GORSKY ISLAND are the alternative each way options to the Hereford winner TB BROKE HER in another race on the card which will not take a great deal of winning.  That said, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of GOOHER, especially representing the (Henry Daly) yard that sponsors the contest.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/4—Gorsky Island (2 x good to soft)

 

3.35: Tom Symonds boasts decent figures at the track (see the stats below) and there is every chance that ASK CATKIN could outrun her odds in the last leg of our favourite wager.  That said, THE LAST BAR and FILLE DES CHAMPS are perfectly plausible Placepot types which should land the dividend between them, albeit I’m adding the first named outsider into the mix.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Evan Williams (1/20 – loss of 14 points) – 107/680 – loss of 177

4—Tom George (0/5) – 9/118 – loss of 44

4—Dan Skelton (3/13 – loss of 3 – 21/91 – loss of 13

3—Kim Bailey (8/21 +15) – 71/419 – loss of 37

3—Neil Mulholland (0/8) – 10/57 +21

3—David Pipe (1/8 – loss of 2) – 22/148 – loss of 26

3—Jeremy Scott (1/5 – loss of 3) – 8/59 – loss of 13

3—Tom Symonds (1/7 +34) – 6/62 +7

3—Paul Webber (1/1 +1) – 7/74 – loss of 37

3—Venetia Williams (0/8) – 63/402 – loss of 61

2—Henry Daly (2/16 – loss of 6) – 65/471 – loss of 137

2—Robin Dickin (1/6 – loss of 1) – 16/122 – loss of 58

2—Harry Fry (1/5 – slight loss) – 8/28 +5

2—Paul Henderson (0/3) – 0/10

2—Sheila Lewis (0/2) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/17 – loss of 7) – 14/216 – loss of 31

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2) – 0/32

2—David Rees (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 3/27 – loss of 9

2—Matt Sheppard (1/13 – loss of 5) 18/242 – loss of 51

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15 – loss of 5) – 83/684 – loss of 184

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kempton: £120.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £23.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

1.45 Southwell : London @ 7/1 BOG WON at 7/1 Made all, ridden and ran on inside final furlong to win by a neck....

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £6,888 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old mare having just her third run since moving to Matt Shepherd's yard, having made the frame in both starts for her new handler and ridden by today's jockey, Stan Shepherd (3) on each occasion. She was third here at Ludlow over an inadequately short 2m4f on yard debut, but followed that up with a win LTO, 25 days ago over 3m1f on soft ground.

She's understandably up in weight, but still receives 12 to 25lbs from each of her rivals today, which should help her to improve her trainer's 5 year record in handicap chases, which currently stands at 38 from 230 (16.5% SR) for 163.8pts (+71.2% ROI), including of note today...

  • 1-30 days since run : 26/149 (17.5%) for 140.5pts (+94.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 21/127 (16.5%) for 118.8pts (+93.5%)
  • on Good to Soft/Soft : 21/96 (21.9%) for 159.7pts (+166.4%)
  • ridden by Stan Shepherd : 15/92 (16.3%) for 37.4pts (+40.6%)
  • January to May : 26/90 (28.9%) for 132pts (+146.7%)
  • LTO winners : 10/33 (30.3%) for 28.8pts (+87.2%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 5/28 (17.9%) for 11.5pts (+41.2%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 3rd January

MUSSELBURGH – JANUARY 3 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £214.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 6 (Kelpies Myth), 8 (Silver Bullion) & 4 (Chookie Royale)

Leg 2 (1.30): 3 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 4 (Middlebrow) & 1 (Pot Commited)

Leg 3 (2.00): 8 (Nendrum), 2 (Sleep In First) & 4 (Lady Clitico)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Full Jack) & 2 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (3.00): 1 (Mixboy) & 4 (Archive)

Leg 6 (3.30): 9 (Paper Promise) & 1 (Detonate)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.00:  This race should be offered with a government health warning (see favourite stats below) even though one of the two market leaders scored via spilt divisions twelve months ago.  Overnight money has arrived for the lone course winner KELPIES MYTH and SILVER BULLION and in the face of previous results in the contest (and in a mediocre renewal) it might prove churlish in the extreme to ignore the potential ‘edges’.  Keith Dalgleish suffered a reversal (faller) yesterday on the opposite Scottish coastline though from a Placepot perspective, CHOOKIE ROYALE should give investors a decent run for their collective months on behalf of the stable.
Favourite factor: The first four winners of this event have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 13/2 & 4/1 before last year’s two divisions, with the relevant market leaders snaring old And silver medals, the winner scoring at 4/6.  Three of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, though one of the (second placed) casualties from a win perspective was beaten at odds of 2/7.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Kelpies Myth (good)

 

1.30: Just as a general viewpoint regarding NH racing at Musselburgh (and on the flat come to mind), why do jockeys sit off the pace so much in Edinburgh, given that the layout of the track demands that horses race close to the pace if they have any chance of winning from meeting to meeting?  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although the two dual course winners might have preferred slightly better conditions, it would be surprising to say the least if both horses failed to figure at the business end of proceedings in such a weak looking event.  Chasing might enable POT COMMITED to rekindle some form, whilst the chance for MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE is there for all to see in this grade/company.  MIDDLEBROW is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Musselburgh card.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

2/2—Pot Commited (2 x good)

2/2—Millaghmurphy Blue (2 x good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds have won two of the four renewals in which vintage representatives were involved though in would take a great deal of blind faith to include this year’s lone vintage representative Great Coloci into even the Placepot mix. Far more logical winners include NENDRUM and SLEEP IN FIRST, even though their collective form does not amount to very much.  Rebecca Menzies does well with the few runners she saddles here and there will be worse outsiders on the Musselburgh card than LADY CLITICO I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include last year’s one successful (85/40) favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Mitcd (good)

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2.30: FULL JACK and JUMP FOR DOUGH appeal from value for money perspectives in another race on the card that will not take a great deal of winning.  RANDY PIKE did us a good turn the other day, though the even money quote in the trade press looks far too tight about a horse which got off the mark in a weak Market Rasen event at the sixth time of asking. COURT BALOO is offered the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) winner.  That said, last year’s 11/8 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Full Jack (good to soft)

1/2—Lady London (good)

1/1—Court Baloo (good)

3.00: Although this is a disappointing renewal of the Kilmany Cup event, last year’s winner MIXBOY looks to have obvious claims, albeit the ground will be softer than was encountered twelve months ago.  I thought that the Dalgleish favourite Niceandeasy was ‘vulnerable’ on yesterday’s Ayr card and so it proved, though MIXBOY comes here with a much better chance from my viewpoint.  At 2/1 with plenty of firms at the time of writing, MIXBOY is offered at a realistic price to defend his crown successfully.  ARCHIVE should present the strongest challenge when the whips are up according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 7/2 - 9/4 – 6/4 - 10/11.

Record of the course winners in the feature event:

1/1—Mixboy (good)

1/3—Trust Thomas (good)

 

3.30:  The exchanges appear to indicate that just two horses can be taken seriously in the finale, namely PAPER PROMISE and DETONATE, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, not that I would back either of them with your money from a win perspective, especially with the disappointing market leader returns listed below.  Lucinda Russell saddled the 16/1 winner two years ago and I guess that BATON BLUE should not be dismissed too readily in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Although four of the five favourites have finished in the frame, just one (4/5) market leader has prevailed thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (2/19 +5) – 48/497 – loss of 156 points

4—Tim Vaughan (2/6 +8) – 9/51 – loss of 6

3—James Ewart (0/4) – 20/160 – loss of 45

2—George Bewley (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 20

2—Susan Corbett (0/9 – 4/56 – loss of 31

2—Keith Dalgleish (3/8 +3) – 9/39 – marginal loss

2—Chris Grant (0/4) – 15/194 – loss of 93 points

2—Micky Hammond (0/3) – 47/360 – loss of 5

2—Iain Jardine (0/10) – 4/47 – loss of 6

2—Christopher Kellett (0/1) – 0/2

2—Donald McCain (0/11) – 44/221 – marginal loss

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/5 slight profit) – 5/31 +24

2—Pauline Robson (0/2) – 7/46 – loss of 13

2—Katie Scott (First runners this season at the track) – 1/8 – loss of 1

2—Sandy Thomson (4/13 +12) – 16/77 +46

2—Alistair Whillans (2/7 +5) – 11/118 – loss of 31

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th December

NEWBURY - DECEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £33.70 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Style De Garde) & 3 (Doctor Bartolo)

Leg 2 (1.00): 6 (Doux Pretender), 16 (Potterman) & 14 (Pacific De Baune)

Leg 3 (1.30): 3 (Baden), 1 (Cosmos Des Obeaux) & 6 (Holbrook Park)

Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (Happy Diva), 5 (Tacenda) & 3 (Ms Parfois)

Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Bally Gilbert), 1 (Ramonex) & 2 (Red Riverman)

Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Melrose Boy) & 10 (Warthog)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.30: Nicky Henderson has won this opening event on two occasions during the last nine years and with STYLE DE GARDE having been declared by the local Seven Barrows maestro, the ratio looks set to improve this afternoon.  Solid as a rock at even money on almost every board at the time of writing, connections might have most to worry about from DOCTOR BARTOLO who ran well enough on debut at Wetherby to suggest that he would have been a short priced favourite here has Nicky declined the gig.   Today’s stats at the foot of the column offer not only the seasonal ratios here at Newbury, but also the career figures for every trainer who has two or more runners on the card.  We can deduce that during his lifetime as a trainer, Nicky boasts a 20% per cent ratio via 218 winners, compared to the relevant stats of Alan King (Doctor Bartolo) whose figures stand at 11% via 60 gold medallists.  Nicky might again have the edge in the first race on the card.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 15 contests, with the other gold medallists scoring at 25/1-16/1-7/1-7/1.  13 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

1.00: Nicky Henderson has won five of the last 16 renewals (without being represented every year by any means) whereby DOUX PRETENDER is the first name on the team sheet.  Nicky’s four-year-old raider ran well enough on debut at Huntingdon last season (despite being a beaten favourites) to suggest that a small race could be there for the taking though once again, it is Alan King who stands in his way as the Wiltshire based handler has declared POTTERMAN, with this pair also expected to fight out the finish in much the same way as their raiders in the opening event.  That said, Nicky throws a potential spanner in the works having also entered PACIFIC DE BAUNE who could upset the applecart in a race which should not prove difficult to win, certainly compared to the first event on the card.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside two joint favourites.  15 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions.

1.30: The last nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum weight of eleven stones with only Abbreviate potentially missing out this year via a jockey claim.  That still leave six runners to assess in this competitive ‘short field’ event, with my short list concentrating on BADEN, COSMOS DES OBEAUX and HOLBROOKE PARK.  Six-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby the trio is listed in order of preference. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 11 favourites (four winners) have claimed Placepot positions to date.

 

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2.05: HAPPY DIVA has finished second in four of her six subsequent assignments after securing back-to-back victories on good to soft ground, whereby Kerry Lee’s six-year-old deserves to win another contest.  Anthony Honeyball has had his team in sparkling form for some time now and the trainer has placed TACENDA to good effect here and it’s worth noting that both of these horses were backed overnight with the majority of firms.    Stable companion MS PARFOIS is added into the Placepot equation in a typically fascinating short field contest at Newbury. Two Swallows receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

2.40:  Ben Pauling just missed out in my Placepot permutation in the previous event on the card, though inmate BALLY GILBERT finds his way into my mix in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, given his third placed effort at Sandown twelve days ago.  A similar performance will take the Stowaway gelding very close here I’ll wager, with RAMONEX and RED RIVERMAN expected to offer challenges at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Newbury programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Exmoor Mist (soft)

1/4—Whispering Harry (heavy)

 

3.15: Five-year-olds have landed nine renewals during the last 15 years whilst vintage representatives have secured 15 of the last 24 available Placepot positions for good measure.  The pick of this year's five vintage representatives should prove to be MELRIOSE BOY and WARTHOG.  Both horses are the only runners on the card respectively for Harry Fry and David Pipe.  Harry secured the prize two years ago, albeit his 4/6 favourite was turned over last year when securing the silver medal.  Nicky Henderson’s raider Mr Whipped is feared most.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 15 renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, 10 winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less, though I should point out that last year’s gold medallist scored at 25/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/16 – loss of 2 points) – 218/1087 – loss of 105

6—Alan King (0/10) – 60/547 – loss of 170 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/7 – Slight loss) – 9/32 +2

3—Colin Tizzard (2/9 – Slight profit) – 24/199 – loss of 43

2—Kim Bailey—(First runners this season) – 22/161 – loss of 132

2—Vic DFartnall (First runners this season) – 12/67 +7

2—Oliver Greenall (First runners this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 5/41 – loss of 15

2—Gary Moore (0/3) – 22/358 – loss of 58

2—Seamus Mullins (First runners this season) – 10/159 +20

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/5 – loss of 3 points) – 7/46 +16

2—Oliver Sherwood (1/5 +8) – 61/323 +3

2—Jamie Snowden (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 19

2—Bill Turner (First runners this season) – 0/3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/9) – 65/600 – loss of 105

2—Evan Williams (0/2) – 7/91 – loss of 13

2—Nick Williams (0/1) – 15/98 +9

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

79 declared runners