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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st February

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £845.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed 3 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Awake At Midnight), 16 (Pearl Of The West) & 6 (Lord Napier)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Town Parks), 2 (Coastal Tiep), 3 (Rayvin Black) & 4 (Seymour Star)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Otter Moon) & 3 (Royal Irish Hussar)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Spider’s Bite) & 8 (The Devils Drop)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Master Of Finance), 2 (Vocaliser) & 7 (Road To Rome)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 1/3 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around.  AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT and LORD NAPIER head my overnight ratings.  For the record, six-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer though that said, money is piling up for PEARL OF THE WEST in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Perhaps that scenario is unfolding with the uncertainty of the Philip Hobbs runners just now regarding AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT.  Philip is not running many horses just now which is understandable given his 1/23 ratio this month though on the flip side, market leaders have a fabulous record in this event if Richard Johnson’s mount can cling on to favouritism.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (11/4, 7/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.

 

2.25: This new race comes under the ‘find me at the bar’ heading because as a ‘win only’ contest with little to choose between the quartet at first glance, the move is to include all four runners, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  For the record, Kerry Lee’s hat trick seeker Town Parks would be the call if I was forced to make a nomination.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Town Parks (soft)

1/1—Rayvin Black (good)

2/4—Seymour Star (2 x soft)

 

3.00: Five of the last six winners have carried 11-3 or more to victory but with jockey claims forcing a few runners under the ‘superior burden barrier’, ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR makes some appeal which might not have been the case if FIXED RATE had not been ridden by a ten pound ‘conditional’ on this occasion.  OTTER MOON just manages to keep in the right half of the handicap and the Tom George raider represents the main threat to Nicky’s 9/1 chance at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Excellent Team (good to firm)

 

3.30: It will be interest to see If Ghoohar is supported at a top price of 11/1 later this morning as there is plenty of speculative money in the positive queue on the exchanges this morning in and around ‘15’ which makes for interesting reading regarding Henry Daly’s raider, especially with the trainer having his horses in blinding form just now.  That said, HORATIO HORNBLOWER and CAPTAIN BUCK’S are more logical choices, especially if you are looking to have a bet from a win perspective whilst organising your Placepot wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Kap Jazz (soft)

 

4.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals and course winner SPIDERS BITE makes plenty of appeal here for Henry Daly and his in form team. Richard Johnson will be keen to ride another winner given that the champion jockey has ‘only’ ridden one of his last eleven mounts to winning effect, another example of how much ‘Dickie’ has also suffered with the Philip Hobbs runners generally running below par this month as stated in the analysis in the opening contest.  THE DEVILS DROP deserves the favourite tag here however, and Alan King’s representative will pose a real threat to the marginal selection if producing his best form this afternoon. CEAREAL KILLER also enters the mix, albeit as definite third choice.

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Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Spiders Bite (good)

 

4.40: There has to be a chance that the official assessor has caught up with Lake field by now and I am offering the speculative trio of MASTER OF FINANCE, VOCALISER and ROAD TO ROME against the projected favourite in our finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader trailed in last of the five finishers behind horses which filled the ‘short field’ frame at odds of 7/2 & 8/1.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) & then their five year ratios + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

5 runners—Robin Dickin (1/78 – loss of 3 points) – 3/57 – loss of 18

5—Venetia Williams (0/13) – 12/129 – loss of 75

3—Kim Bailey (8/24 +12) – 18/101 +3

3—Paul Nicholls (2/7 +2) – 7/33 – loss of 13

2—Henry Daly (4/19 – loss of 2) – 21/107 – loss of 19

2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 0/11

2—Steve Flook (0/2) – 2/35 – loss of 2

2—Nicky Henderson (4/19 –loss of 2) – 29/99 – loss of 17

2—Kerry Lee (2/6 +1) – 8/34 – slight loss

2—Donald McCain (0/6) – 3/65 – loss of 38

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 0/8

2—Alistair Ralph (1/8 – loss of 2) – 3/19 +18

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/39 – loss of 16

2—Dan Skelton (4/21 – loss of 2) – 22/99 – loss of 12

2—Pam Sly (1/1 +3) – 3/7 +10

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £4.90 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,035.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Wetherby : Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 Led to 2nd, led again before 5th, headed 5th, weakened after 5 out...

Next up is Wednesday's...

5.10 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Creation @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 2m5.5f handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £5,263 to the winner and a shorter priced pick than I'm usually comfortable with...

Why?

Because it's pretty poor stuff out there and most of those that I like from stats angle are even shorter!

But the reasons why this one ticked some boxes begin with the excellent start she has made to her racing career, making the fame in four of six starts, picking up three wins along the way. Amongst those races so far, she is...

  • 3 from 4 in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 2 from 3 going right handed
  • 1 from 1 here at Ludlow
  • 1 from 1 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Ned Curtis

In fact, Ned was on board last time out, when she won at Haydock by six lengths 53 days ago over 2m3f on heavy ground at this grade, so stamina hopefully won't be her undoing.

That LTO win also qualifies her for one of my LTO winner micro-systems, whose rules/criteria seem more complicated in print than they are in practice, but here goes...

Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdle races over 3 miles or shorter / horses aged 5 to 11 yrs old / won a hcp hurdle LTO by 4 lengths or more and are now running under the following conditions : same class or up one grade from LTO / off a mark (OR) equal or up to 14lbs higher than LTO and at a trip ranging from 4.5f shorter to 3.5f longer than LTO.

Since the start of 2013, we've had 987 qualifiers fitting the above criteria, so it's a decent sample size that has yielded 303 winners (30.7% SR) for profits of 341.7pts at an ROI of 34.6% and include of relevance today...

  • same class as LTO : 194/565 (34.3%) for 194.72pts (+34.5%)
  • won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO : 139/451 (30.8%) for 193.17pts (+42.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 138/439 (31.4%) for 118.75pts (+27.1%)
  • 6 yr olds are 81/277 (29.2%) for 55.5pts (+20.1%)
  • on Soft ground : 73/246 (29.7%) for 74.76pts (+30.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 60/207 (29%) for 93.45pts (+45.1%)
  • up in trip by 1.5f to 3.5f : 59/187 (31.6%) for 90pts (+48.1%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 12/28 (42.9%) for 10.77pts (+38.5%)

I think most people are aware of trainer Nicky Henderson's decent record here at Ludlow in the last few years (his hurdlers are 21 from 64 here since 2013), so I'm not going to bore you with those details, but I'm going to end with a quick note (or two!) about War Creation's father, Scorpion, whose offspring are 13 from 75 (17.3% SR) for 134.75pts (+179.7% ROI) in handicap jumps races on soft ground or worse since the start of 2017.

Those figures don't actually include Tuesday's results where one of his three progeny running went and won at 10/1 (Hoo Bally Diva at Taunton), but do contain the following...

  • over trips of 2m to 2m5.5f : 12/51 (23.5%) for 154.91pts (+303.8%)
  • on soft ground : 7/50 (14%) for 121.15pts (+242.3%)
  • over hurdles : 6/47 (12.8%) for 114.24pts (+243.1%)

AND...in soft ground handicap hurdles over 2m to 2m5.5f : 4/21 (19.1% SR) for 128.18pts (+610.4% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Creation @ 9/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and a couple of minor payers at 5.45pm onTuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 7th February

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £5.40 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (Doux Pretender) & 1 (Solomon Grey)

Leg 2 (2.10): 2 (Tree Of Liberty) & 3 (Copain De Classe)

Leg 3 (2.40): 8 (War Creation), 7 (Oscar Rose) & 3 (Whatzdjazz)

Leg 4 (3.15): 6 (Monsieur Co), 2 (Minella Present) & 3 (Colin’s Brother)

Leg 5 (3.45): 1 (Esprit De Somoza) & 5 (High Or Never)

Leg 6 (4.15): 12 (Queen Olivia), 1 (Wells De Lune) & 4 (Dabinett Moon)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: After another good day yesterday (832 points of profit), we can go into battle with an air confidence I'll wager.  Although SOLOMON GREY is a solid 4/7 chance right across the boards at the time of writing, the Skelton raider is edging towards 8/11 on the exchanges and being quite exposed now, I’m not sure that as a winner of just one of his four races on our racecourses that he represents value for money.  The problem of course is finding an alternative option, though money is coming in for the Henderson raider DOUX PRETENDER and if I had to choose between the pair, I would opt for Noel Fehily’s latter named mount.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Ludlow.

 

2.10: All the early 15/8 and 7/4 offers about TREE OF LIBERTY have been gobbled up now and it’s not difficult to envisage a starting price of around 6/4 being returned about Kerry Lee’s Stowaway gelding.  Kerry’s course and distance winner has certain been offered another winning chance, despite the declarations of hat trick seeker DRUMCLIFFE and COPAIN DE CLASSE having been made.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Ludlow programme.

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2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests and WAR CREATION, OSCAR ROSE and WHATZDJAZZ look likely types to improve the record of vintage representatives still further.  The trio is listed in order of preference, with the popular yellow, white and green colours of Trevor Hemming expected to rise to the top once again.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites in recent times have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (11/4) winner which scored last year for Alan King who was not represented at the penultimate stage this year.

 

3.15: Irish trainer Tony Martin is testing the water this side of the Irish Sea before his customary spring raids on the Festivals, though I’m passing over Dallas Cowboy in such a competitive heat, preferring the likes of MONSIEUR CO, MINELLA PRESENT and COLIN’S BROTHER on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed via six renewals during the last decade, whilst two of the other four market leaders also finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.45: Rebecca Curtis is enduring another slow season by her high standards and when your luck is out, you tend to run into well placed horses, as is evident this afternoon.  Ordinarily, you might have expected Rebecca to have scored with HIGH OR NEVER next time out after some promising efforts, though Nick Williams is expected to be the latest trainer to thwart Rebecca and her team having declared his impressive Huntingdon winner ESPRIT DE SOMOZA.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.15: The layers look like they want to take on Module today and with half decent types like QUEEN OLIVIA, WELLS DE LIUNE and (arguably) DABINETT MOON in opposition, I can see why, notwithstanding the fact that Module has not been showing his true ability for some time now.  The former Game Spirit Chase winner Module could make a mockery of the contest in his first Hunter Chase assignment but from a Placepot perspective, there is no value by including the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: The 5/2 favourite won the first running of this event twelve months ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: This is essentially a new meeting

Carlisle: £36.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This a new addition to the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 18th January

 

LUDLOW – JANUARY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£465.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Melangerie) & 9 (Passing Call)

Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Shaama Gris), 2 (Happy Diva), 1 (Copper Kay) & 3 (Midnight Target)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Aubusson), 5 (Champagne At Tara) & 3 (Sego Success)

Leg 4 (2.35): 4 (Gortroe Joe), 10 (Master Tradesman) & 2 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 5 (3.10): 1 (Mendip Express) & 2 (Now Ben)

Leg 6 (3.45): 9 (Gamain) & 6 (Allbarnine)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.00:  James Bowen let the side down relating to his mount Percy Street at Newbury on Wednesday, though MELANGERIE looks a slightly more resolute type with which to go to war with, now accepting that the jockey’s ratio for Nicky Henderson this season has slipped to 5/10!  MELANGERIE came good at the third time of asking over course and distance timber under similar conditions the last day, with connections probably having most to fear from PASSING CALL who represents Alan King who has a decent record at the venue, as you can determine at the foot of the column.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Ludlow with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Melangerie (soft)

 

1.30: Putting the words mares, novices and steeplechase together does not install a great deal of confidence, especially when contemplating a ‘win only’ event.  The 14/1 quote about Midnight Target is not even off-putting (Paddy Power are well over the top early doors this morning – as short as 8/1 elsewhere), especially as John Croucott’s mare is the only course winner in the line-up representing a trainer whose record here is better than at most other venues.  Yes, the other trio boast more obvious winning claims, though not enough to leave the outsider out of the Placepot mix.  For the record, the ‘main contenders’ are listed in marginal order of preference as SHAAMA GRIS, HAPPY DIVA and COPPER KAY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite duly prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/8—Midnight Target (good)

 

2.00:  Four of the last seven runners saddled by Nick Williams have won, stats which include a 167/1 treble yesterday when Nick’s fourth contender on the day secured a silver medal.  Nick’s only two runners today run on this card, the first of which is AUBUSSON who is overdue another success to add to the four successes thus far, albeit the last of those victories was boasted over two years ago.  The switch back to more conventional fencing following two cross country assignments might bring about a return to winning form.  CHAMPAGNE AT TARA has been a similarly frustrating sort in recent times, whilst SEGO SUCCESS completes what I confess to being a ‘speculative’ trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

 

2.35:  Richard Mitford-Slade (two of his last four runners have won) is the latest trainer to take advantage of the outrageous five poind claim of James Bowen and it’s worth noting that the relevant horse MASTER TREADESMAN has been the subject of some overnight support at big prices.  At the time of writing at least, the 25/1 quote in the trade press for the seven-year-old looks fanciful.  Others of some interest in a disappointing event include GORTROE JOE and DARIUS DES BOIS.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

 

3.10: No matter which way you throw the dice in these amateur rider events, jockeyship is of maximum importance and with MENDIP EXPRESS and NOW BEN being ridden by good pilots with plenty of experience in the saddle, their respective Placepot chances are there for all to see, not that I would be having any other bet in the contest.  Virak hit an official ‘dizzy height’ of 159 two years ago but just six subsequent assignments have seen his rating drop 20 pounds and until we witness a return to form by the Paul Nicholls raider, I will swerve the nine-year-old, despite the concession of weight by my two ‘selections’.
Favourite factor: The Hunter Chase event on the card is another new race at Ludlow today.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Now Ben (good)

2/4—Tugboat (good & soft)

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3.45: Given the Nick Williams stats offered in the third race, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the Placepot claims (at least) of GAMAIN who is due to carry five pounds in future, whatever result transpires this afternoon.  ALLBARNONE is the first Gary Hanmer inmate to take to the racecourse in a while whereby the overnight support for the ten-year-old catches the eye, especially with a five pound claimer in the plate.  The reserve nomination is awarded to THE SWEENEY in a race which will not take a great deal of winning, despite the number of runners facing the starter.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/14 +2) – 32/113 – loss of 21 points

4—Dan Skelton (4/17 +1) – 22/95 – loss of 8

3—John Groucott (0/7) – 4/36 +4

3—Philip Hobbs (0/14) – 28/127 – loss of 17

2—Rebecca Curtis (1/6 – level profit/loss this season) – 9/59 – loss of 30

2—Henry Daly (3/17 – loss of 6) – 23/133 – loss of 36

2—Nigel Hawke (0/3) – 2/22 +6

2—Alan King (1/5 +10) – 12/57 +12

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 3/72 – loss of 45

2—Graeme McPherson (2/4 +20) – 2/28 – loss of 4

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/14 – loss of 6) – 10/102 – loss of 55)

2—John O’Shea (0/1) – 0/32

2—David Pipe (1/10 – loss of 4) 10/65 – marginal loss

2—Katy Price (0/2) – 1/7 – loss of 3 points

2—Venetia Williams (0/11) – 21/162 – loss of 71

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: £96.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £87.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 1 unplaced – 1 N/R

Southwell: £250.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 10th January

LUDLOW – JANUARY 10

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 11 (Zalvados) & 8 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 2 (1.20): 6 (Monbeg Oscar), 13 (Comrade Conrad) & 9 (Shall We Go Now)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Wandrin Star), 7 (Dark Mahler) & 8 (Megabucks)

Leg 4 (2.25): 8 (Flashjack) & 10 (Galactic Power)

Leg 5 (3.00): 11 (Tb Broke Her), 3 (Nansaroy) & 5 (Gooher)

Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Ask Catkin), 8 (The Last Bar) & 2 (Fille Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: There is some each way money knocking about for SHIVERMETIMBERS and the soft ground Warwick bumper winner gets the alternative each way shout to the hot favourite in the contest, especially with Charlie Deutsch still remaining decent value for his three pound claim.  ZALVADOS hardly represent value at around the 4/7 mark but his trainer Oliver Greenall has surely found a good opportunity for his Soldier Of Fortune gelding in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby no previous results apply.

 

1.20: SHALL WE GO NOW would not be one of the leading lights back at the Harry Fry ranch but his Placepot chance is not dismissed in such a poor contest.  Beaten on all five assignments in this country (favourite on three occasions), MONBEG OSCAR has broken a few hearts/investors already but like Zalvados in the opening event on the card, the Evan Williams representative will surely finish in the frame, even if only the layers are applauding him after the race.  COMRADE CONRAD is the other plausible winner in the field.

 

1.55: DARK MAHLER shone through the gloom at the last meeting here at Ludlow and Emma Lavelle’ s raider in expected to go close to following up, even though Kim Bailey’s WANDRIN STAR will be fancied by his in form connections.  Throw the each way alternative option MEGABUCKS into the equation and we have quite a good contest to witness.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Secret Door (soft)

1/1—Old Salt (soft)

1/1—Dark Mahler (good)

 

2.25: There is some semi serious money in the realistic positive queue for the only course winner in the field, namely GALACTIC POWER, with Robin Dickin’s Gamut gelding offering some opposition to FLASHJACK at the time of writing.  Henry Daly’s recent winner (escapes a penalty) represents a yard which if flying at present and this pair will do for me against the remaining 15 contenders.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Galactic Power (good to soft)

 

3.00: NANSAROY and GORSKY ISLAND are the alternative each way options to the Hereford winner TB BROKE HER in another race on the card which will not take a great deal of winning.  That said, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of GOOHER, especially representing the (Henry Daly) yard that sponsors the contest.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/4—Gorsky Island (2 x good to soft)

 

3.35: Tom Symonds boasts decent figures at the track (see the stats below) and there is every chance that ASK CATKIN could outrun her odds in the last leg of our favourite wager.  That said, THE LAST BAR and FILLE DES CHAMPS are perfectly plausible Placepot types which should land the dividend between them, albeit I’m adding the first named outsider into the mix.

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Evan Williams (1/20 – loss of 14 points) – 107/680 – loss of 177

4—Tom George (0/5) – 9/118 – loss of 44

4—Dan Skelton (3/13 – loss of 3 – 21/91 – loss of 13

3—Kim Bailey (8/21 +15) – 71/419 – loss of 37

3—Neil Mulholland (0/8) – 10/57 +21

3—David Pipe (1/8 – loss of 2) – 22/148 – loss of 26

3—Jeremy Scott (1/5 – loss of 3) – 8/59 – loss of 13

3—Tom Symonds (1/7 +34) – 6/62 +7

3—Paul Webber (1/1 +1) – 7/74 – loss of 37

3—Venetia Williams (0/8) – 63/402 – loss of 61

2—Henry Daly (2/16 – loss of 6) – 65/471 – loss of 137

2—Robin Dickin (1/6 – loss of 1) – 16/122 – loss of 58

2—Harry Fry (1/5 – slight loss) – 8/28 +5

2—Paul Henderson (0/3) – 0/10

2—Sheila Lewis (0/2) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/17 – loss of 7) – 14/216 – loss of 31

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2) – 0/32

2—David Rees (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 3/27 – loss of 9

2—Matt Sheppard (1/13 – loss of 5) 18/242 – loss of 51

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15 – loss of 5) – 83/684 – loss of 184

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kempton: £120.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £23.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

1.45 Southwell : London @ 7/1 BOG WON at 7/1 Made all, ridden and ran on inside final furlong to win by a neck....

Next up is Wednesday's...

3.00 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £6,888 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old mare having just her third run since moving to Matt Shepherd's yard, having made the frame in both starts for her new handler and ridden by today's jockey, Stan Shepherd (3) on each occasion. She was third here at Ludlow over an inadequately short 2m4f on yard debut, but followed that up with a win LTO, 25 days ago over 3m1f on soft ground.

She's understandably up in weight, but still receives 12 to 25lbs from each of her rivals today, which should help her to improve her trainer's 5 year record in handicap chases, which currently stands at 38 from 230 (16.5% SR) for 163.8pts (+71.2% ROI), including of note today...

  • 1-30 days since run : 26/149 (17.5%) for 140.5pts (+94.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 21/127 (16.5%) for 118.8pts (+93.5%)
  • on Good to Soft/Soft : 21/96 (21.9%) for 159.7pts (+166.4%)
  • ridden by Stan Shepherd : 15/92 (16.3%) for 37.4pts (+40.6%)
  • January to May : 26/90 (28.9%) for 132pts (+146.7%)
  • LTO winners : 10/33 (30.3%) for 28.8pts (+87.2%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 5/28 (17.9%) for 11.5pts (+41.2%)

...giving us...... a 1pt win bet on Tb Broke Her @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 3rd January

MUSSELBURGH – JANUARY 3 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £214.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 6 (Kelpies Myth), 8 (Silver Bullion) & 4 (Chookie Royale)

Leg 2 (1.30): 3 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 4 (Middlebrow) & 1 (Pot Commited)

Leg 3 (2.00): 8 (Nendrum), 2 (Sleep In First) & 4 (Lady Clitico)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Full Jack) & 2 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (3.00): 1 (Mixboy) & 4 (Archive)

Leg 6 (3.30): 9 (Paper Promise) & 1 (Detonate)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.00:  This race should be offered with a government health warning (see favourite stats below) even though one of the two market leaders scored via spilt divisions twelve months ago.  Overnight money has arrived for the lone course winner KELPIES MYTH and SILVER BULLION and in the face of previous results in the contest (and in a mediocre renewal) it might prove churlish in the extreme to ignore the potential ‘edges’.  Keith Dalgleish suffered a reversal (faller) yesterday on the opposite Scottish coastline though from a Placepot perspective, CHOOKIE ROYALE should give investors a decent run for their collective months on behalf of the stable.
Favourite factor: The first four winners of this event have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 13/2 & 4/1 before last year’s two divisions, with the relevant market leaders snaring old And silver medals, the winner scoring at 4/6.  Three of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, though one of the (second placed) casualties from a win perspective was beaten at odds of 2/7.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Kelpies Myth (good)

 

1.30: Just as a general viewpoint regarding NH racing at Musselburgh (and on the flat come to mind), why do jockeys sit off the pace so much in Edinburgh, given that the layout of the track demands that horses race close to the pace if they have any chance of winning from meeting to meeting?  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although the two dual course winners might have preferred slightly better conditions, it would be surprising to say the least if both horses failed to figure at the business end of proceedings in such a weak looking event.  Chasing might enable POT COMMITED to rekindle some form, whilst the chance for MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE is there for all to see in this grade/company.  MIDDLEBROW is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Musselburgh card.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

2/2—Pot Commited (2 x good)

2/2—Millaghmurphy Blue (2 x good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds have won two of the four renewals in which vintage representatives were involved though in would take a great deal of blind faith to include this year’s lone vintage representative Great Coloci into even the Placepot mix. Far more logical winners include NENDRUM and SLEEP IN FIRST, even though their collective form does not amount to very much.  Rebecca Menzies does well with the few runners she saddles here and there will be worse outsiders on the Musselburgh card than LADY CLITICO I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include last year’s one successful (85/40) favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Mitcd (good)

 

2.30: FULL JACK and JUMP FOR DOUGH appeal from value for money perspectives in another race on the card that will not take a great deal of winning.  RANDY PIKE did us a good turn the other day, though the even money quote in the trade press looks far too tight about a horse which got off the mark in a weak Market Rasen event at the sixth time of asking. COURT BALOO is offered the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) winner.  That said, last year’s 11/8 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Full Jack (good to soft)

1/2—Lady London (good)

1/1—Court Baloo (good)

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3.00: Although this is a disappointing renewal of the Kilmany Cup event, last year’s winner MIXBOY looks to have obvious claims, albeit the ground will be softer than was encountered twelve months ago.  I thought that the Dalgleish favourite Niceandeasy was ‘vulnerable’ on yesterday’s Ayr card and so it proved, though MIXBOY comes here with a much better chance from my viewpoint.  At 2/1 with plenty of firms at the time of writing, MIXBOY is offered at a realistic price to defend his crown successfully.  ARCHIVE should present the strongest challenge when the whips are up according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 7/2 - 9/4 – 6/4 - 10/11.

Record of the course winners in the feature event:

1/1—Mixboy (good)

1/3—Trust Thomas (good)

 

3.30:  The exchanges appear to indicate that just two horses can be taken seriously in the finale, namely PAPER PROMISE and DETONATE, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, not that I would back either of them with your money from a win perspective, especially with the disappointing market leader returns listed below.  Lucinda Russell saddled the 16/1 winner two years ago and I guess that BATON BLUE should not be dismissed too readily in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Although four of the five favourites have finished in the frame, just one (4/5) market leader has prevailed thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (2/19 +5) – 48/497 – loss of 156 points

4—Tim Vaughan (2/6 +8) – 9/51 – loss of 6

3—James Ewart (0/4) – 20/160 – loss of 45

2—George Bewley (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 20

2—Susan Corbett (0/9 – 4/56 – loss of 31

2—Keith Dalgleish (3/8 +3) – 9/39 – marginal loss

2—Chris Grant (0/4) – 15/194 – loss of 93 points

2—Micky Hammond (0/3) – 47/360 – loss of 5

2—Iain Jardine (0/10) – 4/47 – loss of 6

2—Christopher Kellett (0/1) – 0/2

2—Donald McCain (0/11) – 44/221 – marginal loss

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/5 slight profit) – 5/31 +24

2—Pauline Robson (0/2) – 7/46 – loss of 13

2—Katie Scott (First runners this season at the track) – 1/8 – loss of 1

2—Sandy Thomson (4/13 +12) – 16/77 +46

2—Alistair Whillans (2/7 +5) – 11/118 – loss of 31

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th December

NEWBURY - DECEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £33.70 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Style De Garde) & 3 (Doctor Bartolo)

Leg 2 (1.00): 6 (Doux Pretender), 16 (Potterman) & 14 (Pacific De Baune)

Leg 3 (1.30): 3 (Baden), 1 (Cosmos Des Obeaux) & 6 (Holbrook Park)

Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (Happy Diva), 5 (Tacenda) & 3 (Ms Parfois)

Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Bally Gilbert), 1 (Ramonex) & 2 (Red Riverman)

Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Melrose Boy) & 10 (Warthog)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.30: Nicky Henderson has won this opening event on two occasions during the last nine years and with STYLE DE GARDE having been declared by the local Seven Barrows maestro, the ratio looks set to improve this afternoon.  Solid as a rock at even money on almost every board at the time of writing, connections might have most to worry about from DOCTOR BARTOLO who ran well enough on debut at Wetherby to suggest that he would have been a short priced favourite here has Nicky declined the gig.   Today’s stats at the foot of the column offer not only the seasonal ratios here at Newbury, but also the career figures for every trainer who has two or more runners on the card.  We can deduce that during his lifetime as a trainer, Nicky boasts a 20% per cent ratio via 218 winners, compared to the relevant stats of Alan King (Doctor Bartolo) whose figures stand at 11% via 60 gold medallists.  Nicky might again have the edge in the first race on the card.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 15 contests, with the other gold medallists scoring at 25/1-16/1-7/1-7/1.  13 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

1.00: Nicky Henderson has won five of the last 16 renewals (without being represented every year by any means) whereby DOUX PRETENDER is the first name on the team sheet.  Nicky’s four-year-old raider ran well enough on debut at Huntingdon last season (despite being a beaten favourites) to suggest that a small race could be there for the taking though once again, it is Alan King who stands in his way as the Wiltshire based handler has declared POTTERMAN, with this pair also expected to fight out the finish in much the same way as their raiders in the opening event.  That said, Nicky throws a potential spanner in the works having also entered PACIFIC DE BAUNE who could upset the applecart in a race which should not prove difficult to win, certainly compared to the first event on the card.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside two joint favourites.  15 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions.

1.30: The last nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum weight of eleven stones with only Abbreviate potentially missing out this year via a jockey claim.  That still leave six runners to assess in this competitive ‘short field’ event, with my short list concentrating on BADEN, COSMOS DES OBEAUX and HOLBROOKE PARK.  Six-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby the trio is listed in order of preference. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 11 favourites (four winners) have claimed Placepot positions to date.

 

2.05: HAPPY DIVA has finished second in four of her six subsequent assignments after securing back-to-back victories on good to soft ground, whereby Kerry Lee’s six-year-old deserves to win another contest.  Anthony Honeyball has had his team in sparkling form for some time now and the trainer has placed TACENDA to good effect here and it’s worth noting that both of these horses were backed overnight with the majority of firms.    Stable companion MS PARFOIS is added into the Placepot equation in a typically fascinating short field contest at Newbury. Two Swallows receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

2.40:  Ben Pauling just missed out in my Placepot permutation in the previous event on the card, though inmate BALLY GILBERT finds his way into my mix in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, given his third placed effort at Sandown twelve days ago.  A similar performance will take the Stowaway gelding very close here I’ll wager, with RAMONEX and RED RIVERMAN expected to offer challenges at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Newbury programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Exmoor Mist (soft)

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1/4—Whispering Harry (heavy)

 

3.15: Five-year-olds have landed nine renewals during the last 15 years whilst vintage representatives have secured 15 of the last 24 available Placepot positions for good measure.  The pick of this year's five vintage representatives should prove to be MELRIOSE BOY and WARTHOG.  Both horses are the only runners on the card respectively for Harry Fry and David Pipe.  Harry secured the prize two years ago, albeit his 4/6 favourite was turned over last year when securing the silver medal.  Nicky Henderson’s raider Mr Whipped is feared most.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 15 renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, 10 winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less, though I should point out that last year’s gold medallist scored at 25/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/16 – loss of 2 points) – 218/1087 – loss of 105

6—Alan King (0/10) – 60/547 – loss of 170 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/7 – Slight loss) – 9/32 +2

3—Colin Tizzard (2/9 – Slight profit) – 24/199 – loss of 43

2—Kim Bailey—(First runners this season) – 22/161 – loss of 132

2—Vic DFartnall (First runners this season) – 12/67 +7

2—Oliver Greenall (First runners this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 5/41 – loss of 15

2—Gary Moore (0/3) – 22/358 – loss of 58

2—Seamus Mullins (First runners this season) – 10/159 +20

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/5 – loss of 3 points) – 7/46 +16

2—Oliver Sherwood (1/5 +8) – 61/323 +3

2—Jamie Snowden (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 19

2—Bill Turner (First runners this season) – 0/3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/9) – 65/600 – loss of 105

2—Evan Williams (0/2) – 7/91 – loss of 13

2—Nick Williams (0/1) – 15/98 +9

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

79 declared runners

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 6th December

HAYDOCK – DECEMBER 6

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 5 (Pop Rockstar) & 1 (Thomas Patrick)

Leg 2 (1.20): 4 (Eamon An Cnoic), 3 (Buster Thomas) & 6 (Sainte Ladylime)

Leg 3 (1.55): 2 (Joke Dancer) & 5 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 4 (2.25): 4 (Morney Wing) & 5 (Just Georgie)

Leg 5 (3.00): 4 (Ravensdale), 1 (Duke Debarry) & 5 (Spider’s Bite)

Leg 6 (3.30): 4 (Its’afreebee), 3 (Clan Legend) & 2 (Tawseef)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: POP ROCKSTAR is the call, if for no other reason than every time someone offers 3/1 on the exchanges in the dead of night, the odds are snapped up quickly.  Five of the six runners saddled by the relevant trainer Jonjo O’Neill finished in the frame (exact science) on the opening day of the month, statistics which included two (7/1 & 2/1*) winners.  Tom Lacey boasts a 21% strike rate via his last six winners and Tom’s recent soft ground Exeter winner THOMAS PATRICK should not be far away when the whips are raised above shoulder level.  Un Guet Apens receives the reserve nomination given that James Ewart’s raider is at home on bad ground which is very likely to be in evidence at Haydock today with showers expected to fall on ground which is already described as saturated.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby there is no history of results.

 

1.20: The ‘jury is out’ regarding EAMON AN CNOIC (the only course winner in the field), given that David Pipe’s dual hurdle winner fell too early on his debut to predict how he might jump the bigger obstacles today. As the outsider of the six entries however, Tom Scudamore’s mount attracts the eye whereby if a double price figure emerges this morning, I will probably entertain the odds from a win and place perspective, albeit to minimum stakes.  This is a horror story of a Placepot teaser, with BUSTER THOMAS and SAINTS LADYLIME being added into the permutation, however tentatively.  Those raiders represent the in form yards of Emma Lavelle and Kim Bailey respectively and their entries should be there or thereabouts turning for home.  From there, it’s a case of whose exhaustion level is at its lowest, and that’s only talking about the jockeys!

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Eamon An Cnoic (soft)

 

1.55: There is an element of interest in the 100/1 winner Samson’s Reach in this event, though the booking of Richard Johnson might account from some of the small liquidity which has been accommodated. JOKE DANCER is the call via the three possible winners in the field from my viewpoint, with Sue Smith’s four-year-old taken to get the better of SHIVERMETIMBERS close home.

 

2.25: Charlie Mann has saddled two of his last five runners to winning (25/1 & 9/2) effect and his mud loving raider MORNEY WING looks the safest Placepot option in the contest, notwithstanding his potential gold medal claim in this grade/company.  Certainly Harry Bannister’s mount would be quite a confident Placepot call if all of the ‘dead eight’ runners faced the starter later today.  Should that not be the case, JUST GEORGIE would be added into the equation, given that he has claimed five medals via seven outings on soft/heavy ground to date, albeit no ‘golds’ are in evidence to date via thirteen assignments.  Unfortunately, I have to commit myself before breakfast is served in most dwellings whereby Sue Smith’s representative is included in my Placepot mix.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/6—Granville Island (soft)

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1/1—Morney Wing (heavy)

 

3.00: I have left three Placepot positions ‘open’ for this race which would raise serious questions if a non runner was to raise its ugly head, turning the event into a ‘win only’ contest.  RAVENSDALE, DUKE DEBARRY and SPIDER’S BITE would be expected to snare the prize between them given that scenario; hence their Placepot numbers are included in my framework.

 

3.30: The lads and lasses in the trade press have got carried away with their 8/1 ‘offer’ about ITS’AFREEBEE in the lucky last with Dan Skelton’s raider probably being priced up at around half of those odds this morning.  Bridget Andrews still represents good value for her three pound claim and the partnership should be bang in contention at the business end of proceedings, especially under the projected (heavy ground) conditions.  Not only is Its’afreebee the only course winner in the field; both victories here have been gained on this type of ground.  CLAN LEGEND rates as the main threat I’ll wager, though Donald McCain has already saddled four winners this month whereby it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of his recent Kelso winner TAWSEEF.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Its’afreebee (2 x heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Stuart Coltherd (0/1) – 1/8 – loss of 3 points

3—Donald McCain (0/2) – 10/79 – loss of 29 points

2—Nick Alexander (First runners this season) – 0/9

2—Henry Daly (0/1) – 4/30 – loss of 14 points)

2—Sue Smith (1/5 +2) – 11/98 +19

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

40 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ludlow: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield (A/W): £79.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £363.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Monday 27th November

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £45.80 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 7 (New To This Town) & 10 (St John’s)

Leg 2 (1.05): 5 (Rockland) & 4 (Protek Des Flos)

Leg 3 (1.40): 3 (Colonial Dreams), 1 (Robin The Raven) & 2 (Crucial Role)

Leg 4 (2.15): 3 (Tornado In Milan), 4 (Pearls Legend) & 2 (Chirico Vallis)

Leg 5 (2.45): 6 (Scales), 8 (Galactic Power) & 3 (Bright Tomorrow)

Leg 6 (3.20): 2 (Leg Lock Luke), 1 (Good Man Vinnie) & 3 (The Artful Cobbler)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.35: Evan Williams has saddled nine winners during the last six years at this corresponding meeting and the first of his two runners on the card runs in the opening event, namely ST JOHN’S.  With 107 winners at Ludlow, this is Evan’s best venue regarding his career having saddled 22 more winners than his next best track which is Ffos Las.  NEW TO THIS TOWN is pretty much exposed now, though there is no denying the fact that Colin Tizzard appears to have found a perfect opportunity for his Milan gelding to score at the sixth time of asking over timber.  Robbie Power’s mount had previously won two of his three bumper assignments over the other side of the Irish Sea.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have snared toteplacepot positions to date via three winners.

 

1.05: There has been a little money for Midnight Target overnight which rattles the cage to a fashion, given that John Groucott’s seven-year-old is the lone course winner in the field, albeit the Midnight Legend mare will be having her seventh race at the venue this afternoon, whilst there is plenty of rain falling (seemingly) throughout the country at the time of writing which might count against her on this occasion.  More logical winners in the line up include ROCKLAND and Nicky PROTEK DES FLOS who is the first of just two runners on the card for the yard.  This is a ‘Beginners Chase’ however, whereby I will keep an eye out for any further support for John’s outsider.  Bendomingo’s each way chance might be thwarted by this morning’s wet conditions.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/6—Midnight Target (good)

 

1.40: Kim Bailey’s ROBIN THE RAVEN blotted his copybook to a fashion when falling last time out having won two of his previous three races over timber.  COLONIAL DREAMS won in facile fashion at Southwell earlier in the year and jumping timber for the first time today will answer a few questions for Nicky Henderson and his team.  Henry Daly (like Evan Williams) saddles more winners (63 in total) at Ludlow than at any other venue whereby the chance of CRUCIAL ROLE is respected.  Something keeps nagging at me that this race will not go entirely to plan, though I can’t put my finger on exactly what might go wrong.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the programme.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/2—Robin The Raven (good)

 

2.15: Evan Williams has saddled three winners and a couple of bronze medallists in this race to date via just the six renewals (not represented three years ago) whereby last year’s winner TORNADO IN MILAN is the first name on the team sheet, albeit I appreciate that the success last year was generated via five attempts at the venue.  Hoping the ground does not soften up too much this morning, TONADO IN MILAN is on a very similar mark to last year whereby the 10/1 quote by Bet 365 and BetVictor makes some win and place appeal.  Potential dangers include PEARLS LEGEND (especially if plenty of rain falls prior to flag fall) and CHIRICO VALLIS.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (winners of the relevant contests at 2/1-6/4-11/8) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Robinshill (good)

1/5—Tornado In Milan (good to soft)

1/4—Pearls Legend (soft)

2/5—Truckers Highway (good to soft & soft)

1/3—River Purple (good)

 

2.45:  Rain is a threat to the chance of GALACTIC POWER, though the forecast has not stopped punters investing in Robin Dickin’s Gamut gelding overnight.  The same comment about the weather is a concern to other horses towards the head of the market, possibly enabling SCALES to build on his Newton Abbot victory the last day which was gained under heavy conditions.  BRIGHT TOMORROW is another value for money option to consider against the short priced horses.
Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured gold and silver medals to date alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

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1/7—Scales (good to soft)

 

3.20: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-2 have secured 11 of the 15 available Placepot positions to date, statistics which include all seven (12/1--8/1--5/1--3/1--11/4**--85/40*--15/8*) winners.  There are three ‘qualifiers’ this time around and the relevant trio will represent yours truly, namely LEG LOCK LUKE, GOOD MAN VINNIE and THE ARTFUL COBBLER.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include three (11/4**, 85/40 & 15/8) winners via seven renewals.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Go On Henry (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Monday – followed by stats at Ludlow for this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Henry Daly (0/6)

3—John Groucott (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (2/6 – loss of 1 point)

3—Tim Vaughan (0/3)

2—Jack R Barber (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (1/6 +1)

2—Paul Henderson (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/8 +1)

2—David Pipe (0/2)

2—Matt Sheppard (1/7 (+1)

2—Jeremy Scott (No previous runners at Ludlow this season)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Tom Weston (No previous runners)

2—Evan Williams (1/11 – loss of 5 points)

2—Venetia Williams (0/2)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kempton: £16.40 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 16th November

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £61.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Cockney Wren) & 8 (Sunshade)

Leg 2 (1.55): 2 (Cervin), 6 (It’s a Sting) & 1 (Cervin)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Cresswell Legend), 6 (Black Sam Bella) & 4 (Haul Away)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 6 (Bollin Line) & 1 (Market Road)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Petite Power) & 5 (By The Boardwalk)

Leg 6 (4.00): 7 (Cubswin) & 4 (Pheonix Dawn)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: Although COCKNEY WREN is still a shade of odds on at the time of writing, money is coming in for SUNSHADE and it is worth acknowledging that Nicky Henderson has saddled five winners in as many years at this corresponding meeting.  That said, Harry Fry (COCKNEY WREN) has saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect and this pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Grania O’Malley looks booked for third spot at half decent odds from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged for the Alan King yard.

 

1.55: Stuart Edmunds has his team in fine form whereby it might not pay to dismiss stable representative LEGAL OKAY too quickly, as Stuart attempts to secure his fourth success with his tenth recent runner.  More logical winners to the untrained eye appear to include ITS A STING and another each way type, namely CERVIN from last year’s successful yard.

Favourite factor: The market got the second race right as well twelve months ago as the inaugural 7/2 favourite scored for the Tim Vaughan stable.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Go On Henry (good)

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have secured 19 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 5-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BLACK SAM BELLA and HAUL AWAY from the in form stables of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson respectively.  That said, Kim Bailey also has his team in fine form whereby the lone course winner in the field has to be included in the mix, namely CRESSWELL LEGEND.  It’s worth taking into account Kim’s raids at this venue this season which have produced a ratio of 5/8, figures which have produced 17 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Cresswell Legend (good)

 

3.00: I don’t like siding with ‘favourites’ but the top three horses in the market in the dead of night really do stand out from the crowd.  Irish raider MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE takes in a hurdle event for the first time but anything like the form he showed at Musselburgh when winning recently would be good enough to go very close in this grade/company.  Hat trick seeker BOLLIN LINE has been very well placed by Lucingda Egerton again, whilst MARKET ROAD represents Evan Williams who is second in the list to Nicky Henderson at this corresponding meeting in recent times on the three winner mark. The result might be best served from a Placepot perspective if just one of the trio reach the frame alongside two ‘rags’, especially as I have no compunction to become involved from a win viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

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1/1—Bollin Line (good)

1/2—Mr Bachster (good)

 

3.30: The strongest of the shorter priced runners in this event at the time of writing was very much PETITE POWER from Fergal’s O’Brien’s yard which has been firing in the winners in recent times.  Whilst talking about the popular trainer, I should remind readers what was said before the recent meeting at Cheltenham in that Fergal is very much the underrated handler at the track; before he posted two winners last month.  For the record, Fergal has twelve runners entered at Prestbury Park this weekend, five on Friday, four on Saturday and three on the final day of the fixture.  Back to this event, suggesting that BY THE BOARDWALK is the each way option if you want to shy away from odds of around 10/3 about the projected market leader.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.

 

4.00: Last year’s 4/9 favourite was beaten in the Placepot finale whereby you need to treat the race with plenty of respect, given that this is a juvenile event.  That said, Neil King’s Zamindar filly CUBSWIN won well at the first time of asking whereby the ex Roger Charlton inmate has to be included in the mix, especially with a claimer in the saddle who negates the penalty for the relevant success.  PHEONIX DAWN appears to be the obvious danger having run well over timber already. TAMAYEF is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly, having reached an official mark of 82 on the level, albeit six turf assignments have only brought about one silver medal to date.  Seemingly a better performer on an A/W surface, the other pair are preferred accordingly.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

3—Matt Sheppard (1/4 +4)

3—Evan Williams (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kim Bailey (5/8 +17)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (0/4)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2)

2—Kerry Lee (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: This meeting was abandoned last year

Chelmsford: £21.30 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £1,035.30 - 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 9th November

NEWBURY – NOVEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £187.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 2 (Claimantakinforgan) & 6 (Lostintranslation)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Whataknight), 10 (Captain Buck’s) & 5 (Onefitzall)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Crosspark), 7 (Colin’s Brother) & 4 (Exxaro)

Leg 4 (2.10): 4 (Cap Soleil) & 6 (Oscar Rose)

Leg 5 (2.45): 3 (Topofthegame) & 2 (Strong Pursuit)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Barman), 6 (Volpole Jelois) & 5 (Sea Wall)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.40: There is little point in dwelling beyond the fact that this, in essence, is a two runner race, despite its ten declarations.  It appears that CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN is fully expected to take care of LOSTINTRANSLATION according to the exchange play overnight.  Out of interest both the respective trainers saddled winners at the inaugural meeting last year, Nicky Henderson at 3/1 and Colin Tizzard at 9/1.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/2—Fly Du Charmil (soft)

 

1.10: On a (seemingly) drying day of weather towards the west of the country, ground conditions will be against Minella On Line who would otherwise have been offered as a half decent each way bet to consider as the rank outsider of the field. Instead, I am looking at the likes of CAPTAIN BUCK’S, ONEFITZALL and WHATANIGHT.  The latter named Harry Fry representative could take full advantage of the five pound claimer in the plate (27 winners via a 14% strike rate), whereby the 9/1 offer by BetVictor at the time of writing offers some win and place value from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Tobefair (soft)

1/1—Onefitzall (good to soft)

 

1.40: This was the race in which Colin Tizzard scored with his 9/1 winner twelve months ago and there will be worse outsiders than Colin’s raider EXXARO on the card for sure. With Colin’s Sister winning for us at 10/1 on Saturday, we now have the merits of COLIN’S BROTHER to consider, albeit the two horses hail from different stables.  Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in decent nick whereby COLIN’S BROTHER is short listed, especially as the seven-year-old won his first two races last season, albeit slight slower ground would have been ideal here.  CROSSPARK is the horse for money overnight and it’s worth noting that Richard Johnson takes his first ride for Caroline Bailey this season.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

2.10: Regular readers will know why Fergal O’Brien is one of my favourite trainers just now though to be entirely accurate, Fergal is rarely off my radar when focusing on handlers on a daily basis.  On the one hand his unbeaten four-year-old raider CAP SOLEIL would have enjoyed a little more moisture in the ground, though the negative scenario is arguably negated by the fact that his trio of bumper wins last were gained at three of the most competitive venues in the land at Cheltenham, Aintree and Sandown.  For those reasons alone, Fergal’s Kapgarde filly in the most interesting horse at Newbury today, whilst stable companion OSCAR ROSE also looks set to figure prominently.  Quite why ROSA DAMASCENA is a 28/1 chance in a place this morning I’m not entirely sure, given that Alan King’s Kalanisi filly was only offered as an 8/1 chance when contesting a Listed race at Aintree on her first run for Alan King last season.  Yes she was pulled up in a race which did not go anywhere near to plan, but 28/1 still looks a very big price given that we should always allow a horse one bad run (especially a filly) which is particularly relevant here, as ‘Rosa’ won her next race on the level at Chelmsford.  I am not suggesting this is an easy task by any means but all the same, a saver to minimum stakes is my way to play the race.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

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1/1—Cap Soleil (good to soft)

 

2.45: Despite Nicky Henderson’s fine strike rate at his local track, Beat That is not one of my favourite representatives from the Seven Barrows stable, whereby I am diluting this race down to a two horse affair, suggesting that Morello Royal also has plenty to prove at this level.  All the money at the time of writing is for TOPOFTHEGAME and no matter what the two trainers say about each other (offering a rosy glow), Paul Nicholls takes plenty of satisfaction from beating his fellow handler on Nicky’s ‘stamping ground’ whereby TOPOFTHEGAME is marginally preferred to STRONG PURSUIT in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/2 market leader (literally) failed to win a two horse race!

 

3.20: Two points of interest regarding Nicky Henderson’s recent Taunton winner BARMAN.  Firstly, Nicky’s six-year-old is due for a rise in the weights as of Sunday and secondly, ten pound claimer Alan Doyle easily negates the six pound rise for the relevant success which was gained under fast conditions.  With the ground seemingly set to dry out quite quickly today, BARMAN is the first name on the team sheet ahead of VOLPONE JELOIS and SEA WALL.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race during the course of my investigation in the pursuit of landing today’s ‘pot’.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Thursday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

7—Nicky Henderson (37/145 – loss of 11 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (21/111 +53)

4—Colin Tizzard (10/67 – loss of 15 points)

3—Warren Greatrex (11/58 – loss of 4 points)

3—Philip Hide (0/1)

3—Emma Lavelle (0/27)

3—Paul Nicholls (24/143 – loss of 18 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/81 – loss of 38 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (4/30 – loss of 9 points)

2—Alan King (18/140 – loss of 48 points)

2—Sophie Leech (0/9)

2—Gary Moore (4/41 +9)

2—Oliver Sherwood (5/36 +4)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 26th October

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £363.80 (3 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 10 (St John’s), 9 (Sgroppino) & 3 (Creswell Legend)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Flashjack) & 3 (Seven Kingdoms)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Darebin), 3 (Kapstadt) & 4 (Going For Broke)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Drinks Interval), 6 (Majestic Moll) & 2 (Skewiff)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Lined With Silver), 3 (Grand Coureur) & 6 (Monderon)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Banditry) & 4 (Captain Felix)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Ludlow five year record relating to this corresponding meeting:

36 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £632.14

Highest dividend: £2,234.80 (2015) - Lowest dividend: £91.80 (2012)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Evan Williams (2/1*, 13/8* & 10/11*) – 2 runners today:

St John’s (1.55) & Skewiff (3.35)

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The NH season really begins to take shape now with the two day meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow, quickly followed by Aintree's first (proper) meeting since Grand National day being staged on Sunday, notwithstanding a half decent card at Wincanton.  In the meantime we have to make do with Ludlow, but each and every track in the land has its attractions and this venue is situated in a really beautiful part of the country.  Evan Williams is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this race to date whereby ST JOHN’S is offered up against shorter priced horses in the field, the pick of which (from a value for money perspective) might prove to be SGROPPINO and CRESWELL LEGEND.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured five gold medals and one of the silver variety, with just one market leader missing out on a Placepot position thus far.

 

2.30: Only eight seven-year-olds have contested this event to date, claiming four toteplacepot positions in the process, vintage representatives having won two of the contests at 8/1 & 5/2*.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured nine of the fourteen available Placepot positions and with FLASHJACK boasting ticks in both of the trend boxes representing the successful partnership of Daly/Johnson down the years, Henry’s raider is the call.  Hoping (against hope perhaps) that the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, I’m opting for SEVEN KINGDOMS as the main threat, with the David Dennis representative at home under these conditions which has been noted by overnight exchange players.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have won their respective events at 5/2 & 15/8, though search parties are still out looking for the other three market leaders that missed out on Placepot positions.

 

3.00: The type of race that I absolutely love from a Placepot perspective, with just two potential places up for grabs in a six strong ‘short field’ event.  This is the type of event that we find so often on NH cards at Sandown which historically produce great Placepot dividends pro ratia to the number of runners on a card.  Gary Moore has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect, securing 35 points of level stake profit into the bargain!  Gary has offered the green light to DAREBIN with an obvious chance, though there are plenty of other pointers in a fascinating contest.  Ian Williams (KAPSTADT) is another trainer on the crest of a wave with three of his last four runners having won, with the relevant beaten horse having been sent off as a 66/1 chance.  Overnight money has arrived for GOING FOR BROKE and I will offer up this trio against the other three contenders. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had failed to claim toteplacepot positions before the last two (4/9 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whilst securing six of the eleven available Placepot positions.  DRINKS INTERVAL and MAJESTIC MOLL are marginally preferred to fellow vintage representative SKEWIFF this time around, though all three contenders find a place in my permutation.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions having won their respective events at 11/8 & 11/10.

 

4.05: With so much to do to set up a busy weekend of fixtures, something has to give and on this occasion, I have to offer this amateur rider event short shrift. Thankfully, there has been interest in three horses overnight, namely LINED WITH SILVER, GRAND COUREUR and MONDERON.

Favourite factor: Two of five favourites to date (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (4/1) winner.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Show’s Over

 

4.35: Ian Williams (BANDITRY) has saddled a winner from two runners in this event during its brief history and his five-year-old Iffraaj gelding should secure a Placepot position at the very least in this grade/company.  BANDITRY makes his handicap debut here following a decent victory on this type of ground at Southwell the last day.  It’s always good to see horses coming into the NH sector who were still progressing on the flat and his last official mark of 94 on the level suggests that he should be able to compete in half decent races in this discipline.  Fellow last time out winners CAPTAIN FELIX and EXCELLENT TEAM should prove to be the main beneficiaries if Ian’s raider fails to impress.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites to have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 11/4 & 5/6 via three renewals.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Peruvian Bleu (2 x good)

1/2—Excellent Team (good to firm)

1/3—King Alfonso (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + profit/losses accrued:

4 runners—Alexandra Dunn (3/16 – loss of 2 points)

3—Robin Dickin (2/50 – loss of 16 points)

2—Henry Daly (17/90 – loss of 19 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (23/94 – loss of 8 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

2—Charlie Longsdon (5/51 – loss of 29 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (4/28 – loss of 9 points)

2—Dan Skelton (20/81 – loss of 5 points)

2—Colin Tizzard (3/23 – loss of 8 points)

2—Tom Vaughan (8/66 +9)

2—Evan Williams (36/213 – loss of 34 points)

2—Ian Wiillims (12/55 - +4)

2—Nick Williams (3/19 – loss of 7 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £61.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: £345.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: £60.60 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 11th October

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £243.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (The Statesman) & 3 (High Wells)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Still Believing), 3 (On Demand) & 4 (Poetic Lady)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Braqueur D’Or), 3 (Forever Field), 2 (Heist) & 4 (Always On The Run)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Tunnel Creek), 8 (Status Quo) & 7 (Dove Mountain)

Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Mick Thonic), 2 (Mad Jack Mytton) & 1 (The Gipper)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Tempesatefloresco) & 1 (Man Look)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The only way to start this meeting is to highlight the record of trainer Evan Williams who has saddled eight winners at the corresponding meeting during the last five years which would read well enough anyway, though particularly so as Evan let the other trainers off last year when not represented on the day!  The first of his four runners (from seven options at the weekend) runs in the second race on the card, whilst digesting the fact that six of the Williams winners scored at odds ranging between 7/2 and 8/1.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that the 11/10 trade press quote for THE STATESMEN in the this opening event was always looking wide of the mark, given that the Ian Williams trained Zoffany gelding won his last two races on the level when achieving his highest mark of 87 to date.  Earlier in the year, Ian was quoted as saying “this horse is a real athlete who will make a lovely hurdler” and it looks as though the trainer fancies the early season three-year-old races as a prelim to a possibe tilt at the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.  We will see, though it’s worth pointing out that the record of favourites in this event is not good by any means whereby this will be a watching brief for yours truly, having included THE STATESMAN in my Placepot mix.  One word of warning has to be offered however, as Ian would not want the ground riding too fast for his representative, perhaps wishing that this was the last race on the card rather than the first, with rain not due at Ludlow until the meeting starts. Others to consider include HIGH WELLS who cannot have the ground too fast from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last fourteen contests, during which time four gold medallists have scored at 25/1-25/1-20/1-11/1.  Only five of the 13 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the period.

 

2.25:  Not too many seven pound claimers can boast a 17% strike rate via their first sixteen winners under NH rules I’ll wager, though that is the record of Mitchell Bastyan whose record improves to 21% for Evan Williams from his six successful rides for the trainer thus far.  The first Williams runner on the card (see previous race for phenomenal stats and facts) is STILL BELIEVING who has won on good ground here despite two victories at LudLow under heavy conditions.  The only course winner in the field, STILL BELIEVING is the latest runner to be blessed by Mitchell’s claim though in ON DEMAND, Evan will know that he has at least one horse to beat.  ON DEMAND will be saddled by Colin Tizzard who snared a 20/1 double at Fontwell on Friday. Neill Mulholland’s hat trick seeker POETIC LADY is the other potential winner in the line up from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

3/14—Still Believing (2 x heavy & good)

 

3.00: This should be an entertaining event with Messers Nicholls and Henderson going head to head as we begin to home in on the NH season in real terms, especially with half decent Exeter and Chepstow meetings to follow during the next few days.  Paul Nicholls (BRAQUEUR D’OR) and Nicky Henderson (FOREVER FIELD) can expect decent efforts from their two representatives, though HEIST and ALWAYS ON THE RUN are added into the equation in a race which could go a long way to deciding the size of the Placepot dividend by the end of play.  The claimer aboard Tom George’s latter named representative has ridden six winners to date, four of which have been over fences and with no winners to his name over hurdles, Mr N George brings unusual stats into play.  Connections of HEIST will be hoping that the radar forecast of no rain until early afternoon is accurate.  That said, his eight victories to date include two wins under yielding conditions whereby I feel duty bound to include HEIST into the mix.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/3—Ozzy Thomas (good)

1/1—Heist (good to firm)

1/3—Belmount (good)

 

3.30: Olly Murphy saddles his first (two) runners here at Ludlow today and his recent Worcester winner TUNNEL CREEK was scoring on debut for the yard when giving ten pound claimer Fergus Gregory his fifth winner last month.  Olly keeps the partnership intact here which is just as well in the face of opposition which includes the likes of stable companion DOVE MOUNTAIN and STATUS QUO.

Favourite factor: This is yet another new event on the Ludlow racecard.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Goal (good to soft)

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1/6—Beallandendall (soft)

1/4—Frozen Over (good)

 

4.00: Bigmarte has won at the first time of asking in two terms to date though the ex-Irish raider rates as poor value for money at around the 2/1 mark from my viewpoint.  MAD JACK MYTTON (Jonjo O’Neill) and MICK THONIC (Colin Tizzard) represent two in form yards which make them Placepot candidates, notwithstanding the fact they are race fit compared to Harry Bannister’s projected favourite who has been off the track for six months. The Williams raider here is THE GIPPER who is the only course winner in the field, though his proven soft and heavy ground form dilutes his chance on this going, albeit he scrapes into my Placepot mix via my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency.

Favourite factor: This is the last of the four new Placepot races on the card.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—The Gipper (heavy)

 

4.35: On the face of it, the Evan Williams runner with the least chance of winning on the card is HANDS OF STONE, though it could be argued that only TEMPESTATEFLORESCO stands in his way, given that Colin Tizzard’s nine-year-old gelding looks thrown in on the best of his form.  Connections of MAN LOOK will be outraged by that comment however as the Donald McCain raider has finished ‘in the two’ on his last five assignments, stats which include two victories.  For the record, the last of the Evan Williams representatives runs in the 5.10 contest, namely Grania O’Malley who has been supported on the exchanges during the dead of night.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday, followed by their five year ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Colin Tizzard (2/10 – loss of 5 points)

4—Evan Williams (35/209 – loss of 35 points)

3—Neil Mulholland (4/26 – loss of 6 points)

2—Bernard Llewellyn (0/13)

2—Noel C Kelly (Noel saddles his first runners at the track today)

2—Gary Moore (3/13 +6)

2—Olly Murphy (Olly saddles his first runners at the track today)

2—Henry Oliver (3/36 – loss of 13 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/74 – loss of 34 points)

2—Matt Sheppard (7/47 +10)

2—Dan Skelton (19/80 – loss of 10 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £22.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Towcester: £20.10 – 7 favourties – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £28.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday May 14

PLUMPTON – MAY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,282.10 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Knocknanuss) & 4 (Rasasee)

Leg 2 (2.45): 6 (Bostin), 3 (Lime Street) & 4 (Romeo Americo)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Venetian Lad), 7 (Killabraher Cross) & 3 (Smart Catch)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Osgood) & 6 (Too Many Diamonds)

Leg 5 (4.15): 7 (Sunnytahliateigan) & 8 (Ding Ding)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Little Windmill), 4 (Kingston) & 2 (Perfect Timing)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last twelve contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  The only vintage representative on parade here is JACKBLACK and Joshua Moore’s mount should figure prominently in this grade/company, though probably without winning the contest.  That honour looks likely to be claimed by KNOCKNANUSS, providing that Gary Moore (see details below) has got his seven-year-old Irish import 95% fit following an absence from the track for the thick end of two years.  The other worry (I guess) is that the Beneficial gelding has not raced on ground as firm as thus thus far but hailing from Ireland, you would not be surprised to read that fact!  RASASEE showed decent fast ground form on the level which offers hope for connections.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 15 jollies have reached the frame (three winners), whilst 29 of the 38 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites two years ago, Gary's second victory in this event during the last nine years.

 

2.45: This is the first of five races which witness no less than 18 course winners at Plumpton on Sunday, well over a third of the list of declarations in total.  Six of the last seven winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones which might have offered hope for supporters of Kayfin, though her soft ground victory at Plumpton reduces enthusiasm this time around, especially as the relevant success was her only win to date following 25 assignments.  More logical winners include BOSTIN, LIME STREET and ROMEO AMERICO.  This is a tough ‘short field’ event to assess, a term which relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  The last four winners have scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1-7/1.

Record of course winners in the second race:

2/6—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)

1/6—Romeo Americo (good to firm)

1/6—Bostin (good to firm)

1/10—Kayfin (soft)

 

3.15: This is another ‘short field’ teaser on the card and no mistake!  Tony Carroll scored with his only (9/1) runner at Plumpton last season and it’s interesting to note that his two runners on the card are the only horses in the respective fields not to have won at the track.  SMART CATCH is the relevant entry here though I would have held out more hope for the eleven-year-old had he had half a mile less to tackle.  From a win perspective accordingly, I slightly prefer the likes of VENETIAN LAD and KILLABRAHER CROSS, not that I will be prizing money out from my wallet this afternoon once my Placepot wager has been placed.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders have finished second (claiming toteplacepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1 before last year’s 10/3 favourite went on the missing list.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Royals And Rebels (good to soft)

2/14—Venetian Lad (2 x good)

1/8—Frank N Fair (good)

3/18—Flugzeug (good – good to soft – good to firm)

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

2/8—Killabraher Cross (2 x good)

 

3.45: The only course winner (on good to firm ground for good measure) in the field is OSGOOD and like the lads and lasses who offered a trade press quote of 5/2 about Gary Moore’s raider, I am surprised/delighted to see 11/2 chalked up this morning.  TOO MANY DIAMONDS has seemingly attracted all the overnight money, though I guess that is not too much of a surprise given that Dan Skelton has saddled 51 winners via a 25% strike rate since the end of February.  That S/R is all the more impressive when we take into account the time of year, given the competitive Cheltenham and Aintree festivals during the study period.  TAURIAN is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via six renewals to date, statistics which include three successful (7/2, 15/8 & 2/1) market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/3—Osgood (good to firm)

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4.15: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six contests to date, with SUNNYTAHLIATEIGAN being the only younger horse in the line up on this occasion.  Add the fact that the relevant trainer Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner increases confidence in David Noonan’s mount in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  DING DING was third at 10/1 in another race on the card at the corresponding meeting last year and on offer at an even bigger price here, Sheena West’s course and distance winner is an alternative each way option if you don’t fancy the projected favourite.  That option might prove appealing if the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact towards flag fall.  OSSIE’S DANCER is the reserve nomination

Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (7/2 & 5/2) successful market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Baratineur (soft)

2/2—Ossie’s Dancer (2 x good)

3/9—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)

 

4.45: A corker of a Placepot finale which will blow at least a third of the live Placepot units out of the water, irrespective of the result!  With the last 15 winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we could eliminate the top three (of just five) horses in the field if you share my self- confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies. The other two horses have plenty going for them anyway, especially with LITTLE WINDMILL having won two of his races at this venue under fast conditions.  The reasons for supporting KINGSTON are slightly less obvious aside from the weight trend though that said, Tony Carroll is the relevant trainer whose positive Plumpton record I mentioned earlier on the card.  With Jay Are probably needing this comeback run following two years off the track, PERFECT TIMING is added to the Placepot mix, mainly because this event would fall into the ‘win only’ category should a  non-runner rear its ugly head.

 

Favourite factor: Three of the last 14 renewals of this toteplacepot finale have been won by market leaders.  Seven of the 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Gores Island (good)

1/1—Perfect Timing (good to firm)

1/1—Jay Are (good to soft)

2/3—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Gary Moore (13/70 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Seamus Mullins (1/10 – loss of 15 points)

3—Daniel O’Brien (0/11)

2—Tony Carroll (1/1 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Zoe Davison (1/13 – loss of 3 points)

2—Diana Grissell (0/25)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Mark Hoad (0/10)

2—Linda Jewell (3/26 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Neil King (3/18 – loss of 6 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (4/127 – loss of 16 points)

2—Sheena West (3/15 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight profit)

2—Steve Woodman (0/5)

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ludlow: £9.20 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed