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Placepot Pointers – Friday January 6

LUDLOW – JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £44.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 1 (An Siltean) & 5 (Ckalco Des Loges)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Overtown Express) & 2 (Baby KIng)

Leg 3 (1.50): 4 (Ballyhenry), 2 (Will O’The West) & 1 (Abricot De L’Aosis)

Leg 4 (2.20): 1 (Lord Landen), 2 (Midnight Jade) & 4 (Midnight Folie)

Leg 5 (2.50): 1 (Fidux) & 4 (Dan Bersy)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Pearlesque), 3 (Oh Michelle) & 5 (Tangley)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) spilt the four contests to date, though the younger set lead 7-5 relating to the twelve vintage representatives which have totally dominated the Placepot positions.  Five-year-old beaten favourite CKALCO DES LOGES should lead the relevant vintage raiders home, though whether Dan Skelton’s raider will beat six-year-old AN SILTEAN is another matter entirely.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner at 5/2) though as so often seems to be the case, the shortest Priced (8/11) market leader was the jolly which let the side down from a Placepot perspective.

 

1.20: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, stats which only support the chance Harry Fry’s top weighted raider          OVERTOWN EXPRESS on this occasion.  With six of the last nine runners from the stable having won, Niall Madden’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  There might be an argument made that BABY KING could atone for his beaten favourite status, especially with the Tom George team in such fine form.  This pair should certainly see us through the next leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame by winning its relevant event at odds of 15/8.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/2—Upsanddowns (good)

 

1.50: All four horses to have claimed Placepot position to date have carried 11-4 or more, brief stats which bring in the likes of BALLYHENRY, WILL O’THE WEST and ABRICOT DE L’OASIS this time around.  If there is a danger lurking below the weight barrier, Alan King’s MIDNIGHT COWBOY could emerge as the joker in the pack, bearing in mind that I readily admit that the trend is very much a work in progress at this early stage.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

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Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/4—Midnight Target (good)

 

2.20: The bottom three horses in this ‘dead eight’ event fail the weight trend enquiry, whilst Midnight Folie is too young to win the race from what we have witnessed via four previous contests.  That leaves four horses to assess, the pick of which should prove to be LORD LANDEN and MIDNIGHT JADE.  As you might have deduced, all four winners have been aged at eight or more, whilst the relevant gold medallists all carried a minimum burden of 11-2.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to MIDNIGHT FOLIE despite the fact that Ben Pauling’s seven-year-old only possesses one tick in the two relevant trend boxes.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one (85/40) winner.

 

2.50: Alan King has been mopping up these juvenile hurdle events of late and this contest looks there for the taking for stable representative FIDUX who was a winner at the first time of asking at Catterick at the end of November.  Battling on well that day to land a close finish, Wayne Hutchinson’s mount looks poised to successfully give upwards of seven pounds to all six rivals.  Providing a heavy fall has not left a scar on DON BERSY, the Tom Symonds raider looks set to offer most resistance when the whips are up.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Ludlow card.

 

3.20: Nicky Henderson’s newcomer PEARLESQUE would not have be in possession of bundles of ability to go close at the first time of asking in this grade/company, especially when offering OH MICHELLE and TANGLEY as possible dangers. Both horses represent top trainers in Nigel Twiston-Davies and Harry Fry respectively, though such beasts would be a long way down the pecking order in both camps I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Both the (10/11 & 13/8) favourites have finished well down their respective fields to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 winners—Harry Fry (4/20 – loss of 3 points)

3—David Bruce (0/2)

3—Nicky Henderson (24/88 – loss of 32 points)

3—Alan King (8/40 – Profit of seven points)

3—Dan Skelton (11/55 – slight loss)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (19/142 – loss of 60 points)

3—Evan Williams (41/253 (loss of 47 points)

2—David Bridgwater (1/25 – loss of 22 points)

2—Steve Flook (4/37 – Slight Profit)

2—Sue Gardner (0/10)

2—John Groucott (3/22 – Profit of 11 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (7/54 – slight loss)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/77 – loss of 38 points)

2—Ben Pauling (4/25 – Profit of 3 points)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: No history attached to this meeting

Kempton (A/W): £1,858.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £52.40 – favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Kempton : Gracious Tom @ 6/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 - Tracked leader, challenged 2f out, soon led, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, chased winner but well held inside final furlong, weakened and lost two places near finish

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Ludlow

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danceintothelight @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 8 lengths last time out, that was 8 days ago under today's jockey making all at Catterick and similar tactics could well be at play today by a horse that has made the frame in each of his last five starts.

He's trained by Donald McCain, whose runners are in decent form, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) in the last fortnight with his hurdlers winning 6 of 19 (31.^%) for profits of 22.46pts at an ROI of 118.2%.

And since the start of 2012, Donald's handicap hurdlers who won LTO, 1-30 days ago are 13/63 (20.6% SR) for 22.4pts (+35.6% ROI) with those last seen 6-25 days back winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) for 41.4pts (+94.1%).

In addition to the yard's own good numbers, over the last 5 yrs in UK NH handicap hurdle contests, males who won LTO by 4 or more lengths LTO 3-60 days ago are 330 from 1304 (25.3% SR) for 200.6pts (+15.4% ROI), of which...

  • those who won by 5 to 15 lengths LTO : 220/832 (26.4%) for 198pts (+23.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 129/420 (30.7%) for 84pts (+20%)
  • 4-10 days since last run : 148/398 (37.2%) for 83.7pts (+21%)
  • Class 5 winners LTO : 113/251 (32.2%) for 90.6pts (+25.8%)
  • 9/10 yr olds are 46/162 (28.4%) for 72.4pts (+44.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 8/20 940%) for 1.25pts (+6.25%)

AND...I've not given you a composite micro to store for a while, so how about... 4-10 yr old males / Class 4-5 hcp hurdles / 11-1 and shorter / 4-45 dslr / won hcp hrd by 5-15 L LTO? Backing these over the last 5yrs gives 130 winners from 348 (37.4% SR) and level stakes profits of some 176.8pts at an ROI of 50.8%.

...and...a 1pt win bet on Danceintothelight at 11/4 BOG which was available in at least four places (Bet365 preferred, BetVictor, Hills & Racebets at 7.05pm on Tuesday, whilst 5/2 BOG was widely on offer elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday December 21

NEWCASTLE – APRIL 21

 

There was no racing on this day last year, whilst there is no history for Newcastle (A/W) meetings until the New Year.

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 1 (Keystroke), 12 (Pike Corner Cross) & 10 (Briardale)

Leg 2 (2.00): 6 (Star Storm), 8 (Winning Story) & 4 (Guard Of Honour)

Leg 3 (2.30): 6 (Go George Go), 4 (Summer Collection) & 3 (Maulesden May)

Leg 4 (3.00): 6 (Singapore Sling) & 4 (Roller)

Leg 5 (3.30): 5 (Andy’s Girl) & 3 (Cliff)

Leg 6 (4.00): 8 (Life Of Fame) & 5 (Quiet Warrior)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Jeremy Noseda has his team in half decent nick in the run up to Christmas and KEYSTROKE could pay for the festive expenses despite giving weight to all twelve rivals.  PIKE CORNER CROSS could emerge as the best each way option, especially as Ed de Giles has won with three of his last eight runners, statistics which have produced 15 points of level stake profits.  BRIARDALE completes my trio against the field.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Amazement

1/3—Briardale

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Pike Corner Cross

2.00: Only poor old ‘Freddy’ Tylicki has ridden more winners for James Fanshawe than Tom Queally during the last five years and Tom could boot another winner home for the popular trainer aboard beaten favourite STAR STORM who could be worth another chance in this grade/company.  WINNING STORY is the lone three-year-old in the field with definite chaims, whilst the chance of GUARD OF HONOUR is also respected.  While we enjoy the forthcoming festivities, let’s spare a thought for ‘Freddy’ and his family.

2.30: GO GEORGE GO comes to the gig on a hat trick and connections might have most to fear from the other pair of three-year-olds in the field, namely MAULSEDEN MAY and SUMMER COLLECTION.  The five pound claimer aboard Karl Burke’s latter named Teofilo raider should make things interesting at the business end of the contest.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

2/2—Go George Go

3.00: Tom Queally takes another ride for James Fanshawe on the card and the pair should team up to winning effect with SINGAPORE SLING who never really looked at home over timber last time out.  Hopefully, the Paco Boy representative will appreciate being back on the level by making short work of this opposition, the pick of which could prove to be ROLLER.  Mick Easterby has made a good start to this ‘new’ A/W season and ROLLER is Mick’s only runner on the card, being Newcastle’s leading represented trainer this term.

3.30: ANDYS GIRL represents Brian Ellison, the only trainer in the field to be regularly sending out winners this month and has to be the first name on the team sheet.  Jospehine Gordon has enjoyed a never to be forgotten year which could bring about another winner in CLIFF for the Nigel Tinkler team.

4.00: Blinkered for the first time here, three-year-old LIFE OF FAME deserves to get her head in front after some consistent efforts and though I struggle to back maidens who have failed to win following nine assignments, I have no hesitation in nominating Mark Walford’s Equiano filly in the Placepot equation.  QUIET WARRIOR represents Tony Carroll who landed a 33/1 winner for yours truly (in another life) on Tuesday.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newcastle card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Roger Fell (4/40) – loss of 7 points

4—Brian Ellison (4/67 – loss of 40 points)

4—Derek Shaw (1/12 – loss of 3 points)

3—Tony Carroll (3/10 – Profit of 25 points)

3—Jim Goldie (4/60 – loss of 26 points)

3—Paul Midgley (1/17 – loss of 14 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (8/50 – Profit of 10 points)

2—Karl Burke (5/41 – loss of 1 point)

2—David Evans (0/7)

2—James Fanshawe (6/17 – Slight profit)

2—Suzanne France (0/13)

2—Shaun Harris (loss of 6 points)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He's trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he's one to keep an eye on in the long run.

Dai interests me because if you'd blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you'd be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows...

  • those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
  • over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
  • chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it's also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which...

  • 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
  • won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
  • 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND...9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He's trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he's one to keep an eye on in the long run.

Dai interests me because if you'd blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you'd be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows...

  • those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
  • over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
  • chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it's also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which...

  • 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
  • won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
  • 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND...9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Placepot Pointers – Monday December 5

LINGFIELD - DECEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £18.90 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (11.50): 2 (Dervish), 5 (Naseem) & 12 Peaceful Passage)

Leg 2 (12.20): 7 (Heiba) & 9 (Dusty Blue)

Leg 3 (12.50): 6 (Kiribati) & 1 (Black Bubba)

Leg 4 (1.25): 6 (Baby Gal), 7 (Pulsating) & 9 (Joyful Dream)

Leg 5 (1.55): 7 (Natural Scenery) & 2 (Marshgate Lane)

Leg 6 (2.30): 4 (Sign Of The Zodiac), 10 (Seve) & 8 (High Baroque)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.50: Plenty of leading trainers have declared horses in the opening event, with Luca Cumani boasting recent stats of 4/13, a ratio which has produced 14 points of level stake profits.  Luca saddles his Cacique gelding DERVISH with claims, whilst three of the four John Gosden raiders make some appeal, namely MAKE MEMORIES, NASEEM and PEACEFUL PASSAGE.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Lingfield card with which to open proceedings.

12.20: HEIBA represents Robert Cowell who is the only represented trainer that could be classed as being in some kind of form during recent weeks. Last month’s Newcastle winner should not be hard pressed to figure prominently in this grade/company, with connections probably having most to fear from the likes of five time course winner MOSSGO and DUSTY BLUE, who boasts a 2/5 ratio at Lingfield.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Stormflower.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via four renewals to date, statistics which include three winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/22—Diamond Charlie

1/3—Aragon Knight

1/3—Stormflower

1/2—The Big Lad

5/19—Mossgo

2/5—Dusty Blue

12.50: Although Mark Johnston’s beaten favourite KIRIBATI will have burned a few fingers to date having been sent off at a top price of 4/1 via five assignments, KIRIBATI deserves to get his head in front and it comes as no surprise to see Mark utilising an all-weather opportunity for his Poet’s Voice colt.  Only two months short of his third (real) birthday now, the February foal short certainly finish in the frame at the very least if handling the Polytrack surface, whilst connections of BLACK BUBBA could be the beneficiaries if KIRIBATI fails to act away from turf.  Ignore the eighth place form line, as the David Evans raider was only beaten three lengths on his A/W debut.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Lingfield card which like the first race, related to the authorities who ‘moved the goal posts’ for the majority of juvenile events.

1.25: Stan Moore has saddled three of the last four renewals in contests in which the stable was represented, whereby Stan’s JOYFUL DREAM has to be considered, especially as the trainer has declared first time blinkers which might allow the Dream Ahead gelding to reach the frame again.  It’s worth noting that the outstanding talent this is Josephine Gordon has already taken her into clear third place in terms of the winning riders for Stan Moore during the last five years, in next to no time at all! Terms and conditions for this selling event suggest that more likely winners include BABY GAL and PULSATING.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.  Eight of the nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

1.55: The last six Placepot positions have been secured by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones and NATURAL SCENERY can go close here racing bang on that mark if his three pound claimer takes full advantage of that ‘edge’.  Saeed Bin Suroor has his team in good nick and his Wolverhampton winner on his A/W debut can lead dual course and distance winner MARSHGATE LANE home in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (2/1 & 7/4**) winners.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

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1/1—Beardwood

2/5—Northgate Lane

1/6—Van Huysen

2.30: Josephine Gordon has another decent ride on the card aboard the bottom weight SEVE who was ending a losing run of eleven assignments when scoring last time out over course and distance.  SIGN OF THE ZODIAC has finished ‘in the two’ in all eight races away from turf (winning on three occasions) and this pair will do for me against the other eight contenders, with HIGH BAROQUE offered the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Lingfield programme.

Record of course winners in the sixth event:

1/3—Gracious John

1/1—Encore D’Or

2/11—Sandfrankskipsgo

1/1--Seve

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Lingfield card on Monday – followed by their stats for this ‘new season’ which started on October 27 + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Mark Johnston (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Richard Fahey (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

4—John Gosden (0/5)

3—David Evans (2/5 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/1)

2—John Bridger (0/6)

2—Tony Carroll (0/3)

2—Robert Cowell (0/3)

2—Tom Dascombe (1/3 – Slight profit)

2—Scott Dixon (No runners)

2—Mick Easterby (No runners)

2—James Given (0/1)

2—Rae Guest (0/3)

2—Dean Ivory (0/2)

2—John Jenkins (0/3)

2—William Knight (0/3)

2—Heather Main (0/1)

2—Patrick Morris (No runners)

2—William Muir (0/3)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3/7 – Profit of 4 points)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

86 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: This is a new meeting

Ludlow: £48.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – November 28

PLUMPTON - NOVEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £43.90 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 9 (River Frost) & 7 (January Don)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 4 (Romain De Senam)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Tambura), 4 (Bull And Bush) & 1 (Very Extravagant)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Ding Ding), 2 (Createur) & 3 (Changing The Guard)

Leg 5 (3.00): 6 (Flugzeug), 2 (Yukon Delta) & 3 (Water Wagtail)

Leg 6 (3.30): 5 (If The Cap Fits) & 1 (Alaskan Poet)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Plumpton - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 
12.55: Alan King took this opening event last year and the “master trainer” appears to have selected the right inmate (RIVER FROST) to double up in the contest.  Boasting a 36% strike rate at the track during the last five years, Alan’s hurdlers have won nearly 70% of the relevant events on behalf of the stable.  JANUARY DON might prove to be the pick of the opposition in a weak start to the Plumpton programme.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4, 4/6 & 4/7) winners.

1.25: Had the ground has been much softer, I could have given a chance to Overtown Express but under better conditions, it’s is difficult to oppose TOP NOTCH though once again, Paul Nicholls (ROMAIN DE SENAM) has refused to bow down to one horse which people who pay money through the turnstiles will appreciate.  That said, it would be disappointing in the extreme if TOP NOTCH failed to build on his Warwick success which was gained at the second time of asking over the bigger obstacles.  ROMAIN DE SENAM might be slightly better suited to faster conditions whereby Paul is fully entitled to take on the favourite, especially in receipt of twelve pounds.
Favourite factor: Both of the long (1/5 & 1/6) odds on chances have prevailed thus far.
2.00: All four winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory which will aid and abet the chance of BULL AND BUSH from my viewpoint, though TAMBURA returns to defend her crown and runs here looking for a third consecutive success at the corresponding fixture.  VERY EXTRAVANGANT is the alternative candidate to thrown into the mix with the others in the ‘superior’ handicap sector failing to light my blue touch paper on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful (11/4**, 9/4 & 15/8) favourites via four renewals.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/5—Tambura (2 x soft)

1/4—Frank N Fair

1/5—Frank N Fair (good)

2.30: Sheena West has saddled nearly 40% of her 29 winners in the NH sector during the last five years at this venue and although her strike rate/level stake losses fail to set the pulse racing, her runners here can rarely be ignored.  DING DING is the stable representative this time around and having run out a facile ten length winner at the last meeting, Marc Goldstein’s mount if the first name on the team sheet. CREATEUR and CHANGING THE GUARD might reward each way investors if they are looking for alternative options.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites has claimed a Placepot position to date without winning its respective event.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

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1/1—Just When (soft)

1/5—Ding Ding (good)

1/8—Clonuska (heavy)

3.00: Five of the seven winners carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whereby triple course and distance winner FLUGZEUG cannot be dismissed, especially given the victories were gained under different types of ground as you can see below.  I appreciate that more logical winners in the field include YUKON DELTA and WATER WAGTAIL, but since when did logic dictate results in our favourite sport?
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals thus far, statistics which include four (5/4--7/4—2/1--7/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/7—Itoldyou (1 x soft)

1/1—Yukon Delta (good)

1/5—Leith Hill Legasi (soft)

3/15—Flugzeug (good to soft – good – good to firm)

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-2 via the seven renewals to date in a race restricted to just the two vintage representatives.  Four-year-olds also hold a 13-6 lead in the toteplacepot division, despite the lesser ratio of 49% of the total number of runners.  I fully expect the trend to be extended here with IF THE CAP FITS being the marginal call over ALASKAN POET, if only because of Harry Fry’s 5/9 ratio at Plumpton to date.  Alan King’s raider was caught a little flat footed before staying on at Fontwell on debut and IF THE CAP FITS might hand out the same type of ‘attack’ in the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites secured toteplacepot positions by claiming two gold medals alongside one of the silver variety.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their five year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Linda Jewell (3/22 – loss of 9 points)

3—Gary Moore (39/207 – loss of 34 points)

3—Danial Steele (6/36 – profit of 13 points)

2—Harry Fry (5/9 – Profit of 21 points)

2—Diana Grissell (0/6)

2—Grace Harris (0/2)

2—Alan King (16/45 – loss of 5 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (3/22 – loss of 9 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (5/47 – loss of 10 points)

2—Tim Vaughan (3/63 – loss of 49 points)

2—Sheena West (11/84 – loss of 14 points)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ludlow & Newcastle: These are new meetings

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Lingfield : Swiss Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up, headway entering final furlong, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on for a comfortable win by 2.25 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Noche de Reyes @ 2/1 BOG

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Why?

A little shorter than I'd normally go for, but there's very little of interest to me in the usual 11/4 to 5/1 range that I try to play in.

This 7 yr old gelding comes here off the back of a decent runner-up finish in a Listed event at Ascot 23 days ago, when only beaten by Quite By Chance who ran well again at the weekend off a mark of 143. Our bouy now drops down to Class 3 handicap company off 129 and he's 3/12 at this level with all three wins coming from six efforts here at Ludlow, all over the 2m trip where his form reads 12P112.

Those three wins have contributed to his trainer Tom George having 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) for profits of 29.5pts (+42.1% ROI) during the November-April period of 2011-16. Of these 70 runners (applicable here today)...

  • males are 18/65 (27.7%) for 34.5pts (+53%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 17/55 (30.9%) for 42.2pts (+76.8%)
  • handicappers are 14/44 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+49.8%)
  • chasers are 14/38 (36.8%) for 27.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/36 (36.1%) for 25.2pts (+70%)
  • and over 2m : 9/30 (30%) for 28.2pts (+93.9%)

AND...males aged 5-8 in Class 3 handicap chases are 11 from 26 (42.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+120.8% ROI), of which those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 11/21 (52.4%) for 36.4pts (+173.4%) with those racing over 2m winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 13.34pts (+133.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Noche de Reyes at 2/1 BOG with any of Bet365 (my preference), BetVictor, Hills, Betbright, Ladbrokes and/or Boylesports who all concurred at 11.20pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Lingfield : Swiss Cross @ 3/1 BOG WON at 9/4 (Held up, headway entering final furlong, quickened to lead inside final furlong, ran on for a comfortable win by 2.25 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Noche de Reyes @ 2/1 BOG

Why?

A little shorter than I'd normally go for, but there's very little of interest to me in the usual 11/4 to 5/1 range that I try to play in.

This 7 yr old gelding comes here off the back of a decent runner-up finish in a Listed event at Ascot 23 days ago, when only beaten by Quite By Chance who ran well again at the weekend off a mark of 143. Our bouy now drops down to Class 3 handicap company off 129 and he's 3/12 at this level with all three wins coming from six efforts here at Ludlow, all over the 2m trip where his form reads 12P112.

Those three wins have contributed to his trainer Tom George having 18 winners from 70 (25.7% SR) for profits of 29.5pts (+42.1% ROI) during the November-April period of 2011-16. Of these 70 runners (applicable here today)...

  • males are 18/65 (27.7%) for 34.5pts (+53%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 17/55 (30.9%) for 42.2pts (+76.8%)
  • handicappers are 14/44 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+49.8%)
  • chasers are 14/38 (36.8%) for 27.9pts (+73.4%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/36 (36.1%) for 25.2pts (+70%)
  • and over 2m : 9/30 (30%) for 28.2pts (+93.9%)

AND...males aged 5-8 in Class 3 handicap chases are 11 from 26 (42.3% SR) for 31.4pts (+120.8% ROI), of which those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 11/21 (52.4%) for 36.4pts (+173.4%) with those racing over 2m winning 5 of 10 (50%) for 13.34pts (+133.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Noche de Reyes at 2/1 BOG with any of Bet365 (my preference), BetVictor, Hills, Betbright, Ladbrokes and/or Boylesports who all concurred at 11.20pm on Sunday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Placepot pointers – Monday November 21

LUDLOW  - NOVEMBER 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £80.30 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 3 (Djarkalin) & 9 (Tintern Theatre)

Leg 2 (1.10): 8 (Sierra Oscar) & 1 (Adrrastos)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Better Days), 1 (Vice Et Vertu) & 3 (Holy Cross)

Leg 4 (2.15): 2 (On The Road), 4 (Bored Or Bad) & 3 (Airpur Desbois)

Leg 5 (2.50): 4 (Tornado In Milan), 3 (Going Concern) & 2 (Noche De Reyes)

Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Scotchtown) & 2 (Another Venture)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Evan Williams has saddled seven winners during the last five years at this corresponding meeting and the first of his seven runners on the card runs in the opening event, namely New Republic.  Conor Ring’s three pound claim will aid and abet the cause but that said, DJARKALIN and TINTERN THEATRE will prove difficult to pass up the home straight I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have snared toteplacepot positions to date via two winners at 1/2 and even money.

1.10: Dan Skelton has a realistic chance of taking both divisions of theis event (saddles Djarkalin in the opening heat), with SIERRA OSCAR having been given the green light to represent the stable.  Connections might have most to fear from ADRRASTOS in a weak event.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card, whereby the same stats apply.

1.40: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-2 have secured 10 of the 12 available toteplacepot positions to date, statsitics which include all six (12/1--8/1--5/1--3/1--11/4**--85/40*) winners.  There are four ‘qualifiers’ this time around (jockey claims taken into account) with BETTER DAYS, VICE ET VERTU and (possibly) HOLY CROSS fancied to secure toteplacepot positions on this occasion.  .
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include two (11/4 & 85/40) winners via six renewals.

2.15: All nine gold medallists have been burdened with 10-3 or more, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far, including three of the last five renewals. Putting the stats and facts together leads me to offering an overnight short list of ON THE ROAD, BORED OR BAD and AIRPUR DESBOIS.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have finished in the frame to date via nine renewals, statistics which include two winners.

2.50: Evan Williams has saddled two winners and a couple of bronze medallists in this race to date via just the five renewals (not represented two years ago) with the trainer holding two chances this time around.  Evan has decided to offer the green light to TORNADO IN MILAN and GOING CONCERN, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference at the overnight stage. Three time good ground course winner NOCHE DE REYES is difficult to dismiss, even taking the atrocious weekend weather into account.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (winners of the relevant contests at 2/1 & 6/4) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

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Record of the course winners in the field:

3/6—Noche De Reyes (3 x good)

1/8—Last Shot (good to soft – ran at Exeter on Sunday, probable non-runner)

3.20: The ground at Ludlow (and Kempton) on Monday is likelier to be better than at most venues in the land whereby (good ground) Wetherby winner SCOTCHTOWN could give seven pounds and a beating to his five rivals in this grade/company. ANOTHER VENTURE is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Ludlow card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Monday – followed by 5 year stats at Ludlow _ profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Evan Williams (39/242 – loss of 44 points)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/131 – loss of 58 points)

3—Kim Bailey (10/73 – loss of 4 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (9/71 – loss of 32 points)

3—Tom Weston (0/3)

2—David Bridgwater (1/22 – loss of 19 points)

2—Tom George (15/64 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Mike Hammond (0/4)

2—Charlie Longsdon (6/53 – loss of 16 points)

2—David Dennis (4/35 – loss of 7 points)

2—Dan Skelton (11/51 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Tim Vaughan (9/70 – Profit of 21 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kempton: £18.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £2,298.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

Placepot pointers – Thursday November 10

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £21.00 (7 favourites - 5 winners & 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.35): 8 (Tara View) & 7 (Overawed)

Leg 2 (2.05): 2 (Quantum Of Solace), 9 (Show’s Over) & 8 (Chakisto)

Leg 3 (2.35): 1 (Ballyhill), 6 (Moscato) & 2 (Crank Em Up)

Leg 4 (3.05): 4 (Big Casino), 6 (Moss On The Mill) & 2 (Adam Du Breteau)

Leg 5 (3.35): 8 (Bring Back Charlie) & 12 (Midnight Gypsy)

Leg 6 (4.05): 3 (Lord Huntingdon) & 6 (Sisania)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.35: TARA VIEW is yet another Alan King novice/maiden hurdler to respect, this being the time of year when Alan excels with such inmates.  Tom George cannot do a great deal wrong just now and OVERAWED could outrun her odds, albeit Tom’s more experienced runners tend to rule the stable.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

2.05: Martin Keighley is back among the winners and his Kayf Tara raider QUANTUM OF SOLACE can supplement his September Uttoxeter success back in September. Two of the three Tim Vaughan entries can offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, namely SHOW’S OVER & CHAKISTO.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Ludlow programme.

2.35: Four and five-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 4-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BALLYHILL and MOSCATO. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to CRANK EK UP.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

3.05: Five time winner BIG CASINO represents the in-form yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies and with good ground likely to be in evidence, Nigel’s ten-year-old can supplement a recent Stratford success, especially with Ryan Hatch claiming his useful three pound ‘edge’ from the saddle.  Connections might have most to fear from ADAM DU BRETEAU and MOSS ON THE MILL.

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Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.

3.35: Regular readers will know my feelings about amateur rider events, whereby my tentative duo against the remaining twelve contenders consists of BRING BACK CHARLIE and MIDNIGHT GYPSY. Thank goodness for the three days at Prestbury Park which is on the horizon now!

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.

 

4.05: LORD HUNTINGDON was running well enough against an in form rival in Cliffs Of Dover when coming down at Kempton and though Alan King’s raider would not have won that day, the form line suggests he will have too much speed for SISANIA in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured three gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Tim Vaughan (0/2)

3—Tom George (0/5)

3—John Joseph Hanlon (No runners)

3—Kerry Lee (0/2)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Jeremy Scott (1/1 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 – slight loss)

2—Peter Bowen (1/2 – Profit of 6 points)

2—David Brace (No runners)

2—David Dennis (0/2)

2—Alan King (1/3 – Profit of 1 point)

2—David Loder (1/1 – slight profit)

2—Gary Moore (No runners)

2—Evan Williams (0/7)

+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chelmsford: £21.00 - 7 favourites – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Southwell: £24.90 - 9 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Towcester: This is a new meeting

 

Placepot pointers – Thursday October 20

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £2,234.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Inn The Bull) & 3 (Hazaman)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Bennachie), 5 (Hepijeu) & 10 (King’s Song)

Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Nicholas Chauvin), 1 (Canicallyouback) & 7 (I’dliketheoption)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Dominada) & 3 (Lilac Tree)

Leg 5 (4.15): 1 (Lillian), 3 (Atalanta Blaze) & 4 (Beyond Measure)

Leg 6 (4.50): 4 (She’s Late) & 7 (Edeiff’s Lad)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: The NH season really begins to take shape now with the two day (Showcase) meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow, quickly followed by Aintree's first (proper) meeting since Grand National day being staged on Sunday.  In the meantime we have to make do with Ludlow, but each and every track in the land has its attractions and this venue is situated in a really beautiful part of the country.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that INN THE BULL should overcome NH inexperience to get the better of HAZAMAN in a race that should not take a great deal of winning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 favourite finished out of the frame behind the impressive 16/1 winner (Wolf Of Windlesham), who was kick starting a run of four victories via his next five assignments, successes which included a victory at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham next time out.

2.30: Only seven seven-year-olds have contested this event to date, claiming four toteplacepot positions in the process.  Not represented in one of the four renewals this far, seven-year-olds won two of the contests at 8/1 & 5/2*.  Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured seven of the eleven available toteplacepot positions and with BENNACHIE being the only seven-year-old in the field, Tim Vaughan’s raider possesses tick in both boxes, despite the three pound claimer in the saddle.  Tim Vaughan’s stable companion CASPIAN PIPER is another to consider, alongside HEPIJEU and KING’S SONG.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have won their respective events at 5/2 & 15/8, though search parties are still out looking for the other pair of market leaders that missed out on Placepot positions.

3.05: The type of race that I absolutely love from a Placepot perspective, with just two potential places up for grabs in a seven strong field.  This is the type of event that we find so often on NH cards at Sandown which historically produce great Placepot dividends pro ratia to the number of runners on a card.  My trio against the other four contenders on this occasion consists of NICHOLAS CHAUVIN, CANICALLYOUBACK and I’DLIKE THEOPTION and having stated what I have, let’s hope this is not the only race on the card which lets us down in terms of securing a dividend!

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Favourite factor: Both favourites had failed to claim toteplacepot positions before last year’s 4/9 market leader prevailed.

3.40: Six-year-old LILAC TREE represents the vintage which has won both contests to date, though Richard Rowe’s Dubawi raider is likely to find DOMINADA too hot to handle in this contest.  Brian Ellison’s Mastercraftsman gelding blew the opposition away at Market Rasen last week whereby the progressive four-year-old is impossible to oppose if you are considering a win best, though be prepared to take a ‘skinny’ price about the selection.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date secured a toteplacepot position by winning its respective event at odds of 11/4.

4.15: This six runner ‘short field’ contest is another race on the card which is assured of destroying thousands of Placepot dreams, with yours truly trying to offset that scenario by offering LILLIAN, ATALANTA BLAZE and BEYOND MEASURE against the other three declarations. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races in which five, six and seven runners contest an event, having to finish in the first two to ‘qualify’ from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions having won their respective events at 11/8 & 11/10.

4.50: There was not a penny piece played or laid on the exchanges in this event at the time of writing and given the inexperienced riders assembled for the toteplacepot finale, I cannot pretend that I am surprised.  Tentative types for the overnight mix include SHE’S LATE, EDEIFF’S LAD and COEUR DE FOU, though overnight activity on the machines can only add some interest to proceedings in the toteplacepot finale.

Favourite factor: Only one of four favourites to date (via three renewals) has finished in the frame (no winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday:

5 runners—Evan Williams (0/2 this season at Ludlow – 39/235 five year stat)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3 – 7/65)

2—Bob Buckler (0/2 – 3/25)

2—Chris Down (0/2 – 3/25)

2—Alan King (0/1 – 5/35)

2—Charlie Longsdon (0/2 – 6/51)

2—Tim Vaughan (None – 8/62)

+ 56 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

38 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £87.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £ 25.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Newton Abbot: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – Wednesday October 5

LUDLOW - OCTOBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £138.40 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Fool To Cry) & 9 (Jim Dandy)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Templehills) & 4 (Ghost River)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Set List), 6 (Azure Fly) & 2 (Kilbree Kid)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Lilywhite Gesture), 3 (Nordic Nymph), 1 (Morning Herald) & 2 (Miss Mobot)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Pull The Chord) & 3 (Ascotdeux Nellerie)

Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (Bobbie Emerald), 5 (Orthadox Lad) & 9 (Goodwood Moonlight)

Suggested stake: 278 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: The only meeting this season at Ludlow produced a toteplacepot dividend of £9.40, with four of the seven favourites in the Placepot races having won, with the three other favourites finishing in the frame (exact science).  The eighth favourite in the seventh event also won for good measure.  Whether we will be as well blessed on Wednesday remains to be seen, though beaten favourite JIM DANDY looks sure to be given another chance by plenty of punters from my viewpoint.  A winner of one of his seven assignments on the level at Salisbury, Alan King’s representative needs to sharpen up his hurdling to snare gold.  If that improvement fails to materialise, the main benefactors should prove to be FOOL TO CRY and AHRAAM.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last thirteen contests, during which time four gold medallists have scored at 25/1-25/1-20/1-11/1.  Only five of the 12 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

2.40: Nigel Twiston-Davies announced on Tuesday that his top class hurdler The New One is going chasing this season which should illuminate the novice sector over the bigger obstacles.  In the meantime, the trainer should greet another winner having declared his recent Uttoxeter winner TEMPLEHILLS.  With a ten pound claimer in the plate, Nigel’s Kalanisi raider should not be hard pressed to double up in this grade/company.  The weights and measures involved suggest that GHOST RIVER is the main threat in the contest.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/7 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/4 market leader found one too good in a ‘win only’ contest.

3.10: Seven-year-olds have (maybe coincidentally) won all three renewals but whatever your thoughts relating to vintage matters, SET LIST appears to be the clear pick of the two relevant declarations.  Emma Lavelle boasts a 36% strike rate via nine winners since the end of June whereby SET LIST is the first name on the team sheet in the third leg of our favourite wager.  Last year’s winner AZURE FLY might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, possibly alongside KILBREE KID.

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/3--Kilbree Kid (good)

1/2--Azure Fly (good)

Favourite factor: All three (7/4-15/8-7/2) favourites have won thus far.

3.40: Seven of the nine available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 11-2, statistics which include all three (8/1-13/2-9/2) winners.  I feel obliged to include all four runners in my Placepot permutation in this event, especially as handicap hurdle events over a distance of ground have long since offered the worst favourite stats in all aspects of the sport, under either code!  The two horses which qualify via the weight trend are LILYWHITE GESTURE and NORDIC NYMPH though equally, it’s desperately difficult to leave MORNING HERALD and MISS MOBOT out of the equation. Evan Williams has saddled all three winners of this event; hence the ‘overview’ comment at the foot of the analysis.

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Favourite factor: One of the 7/2 inaugural joint favourites finished in the frame without winning in a short field race in 2013, whilst the next 9/4 market leader scraped into the frame via a bronze medal effort in a 'dead eight' contest.  Two of the three co favourites twelve months ago finished in the money without claiming gold.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3--Morning Herald (good)

4.10:  Six-year-olds have won all three renewals and both of this year’s vintage representatives hold realistic claims, namely PULL THE CHORD and ASCOTDEUX NELLERIE. The pair are listed in order of preference at the time of writing, whilst offering MASTER DEE as the main danger.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date has finished in the frame, without winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/3--Ascotdeux Nellerie (2 x good)

4.40: Securing two medals of each colour via fourteen assignments thus far, BOBBLE EMERALD (1/1 at this venue) last won here at Ludlow and if returning to form of old, Martin Keighley’s eight year-old would take plenty of kicking out of the frame.  Others to consider in an interesting Placepot finale include ORTHODOX LAD and GOODWOOD MOONLIGHT.  The jury is out for David Bridgwater’s recent winner Tempuran as the seven time winner has yet to post back to back victories for all his ability.

Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the inaugural beaten (15/8) favourite, though last year’s successful 11/4 market leader balanced up the books.

Record of course winners in the 'lucky last':

1/1--Bobbie Emerald (good to soft)

1/2--Frozen Over (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Wednesday:

3—Peter Bowen (No previous runners at Ludlow this season)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/1)

2—Grace Harris (---)

2—Philip Hobbs (1/2 – Profit of 1 point to level stakes)

2—Martin Keighley (0/2)

2—Sophie Leech (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (---)

2—Fergal O’Brien (---)

2—John O’Shea (---)

2—Matt Shepherd (---)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

50 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £76.50 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Towcester: £61.90 – 6 favourties – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton (A/W) – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Ludlow overview – It’s disappointing that Evan Williams has not entered any of his six four day declarations, given that Evan is invariably the trainer to follow at this venue, especially at this corresponding meeting down the years.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2016

Tuesday's Result :

5.10 Brighton : Virile @ 9/2 non-BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Fell out of the stalls, missed the break and slowly into stride, held up, towards rear, good headway on wide outside over 1f out, chased winner and every chance well inside final furlong, just held off by a head)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Templehills at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Well, it's quite a simple one tonight/today, depending on when you're reading this.

August to October has become known as "Twister Season", due to the success at this time of year of Nigel Twiston Davies and his jumpers.

NTD / 5-10 yr olds / Chases & Hurdles / August-October / 2008-16 = 165/730 (22.6% SR) for 401.2pts (+55% ROI) and you could stop there, but I won't!

Of these 730 runners...

  • males are 153/652 (23.5%) for 384.7pts (+59%)
  • hurdlers are 71/327 (21.7%) for 257.6pts (+78.9%)
  • non-handicappers are 69/263 (26.2%) for 218.4pts (+83%)
  • 5 yr olds are 45/177 (28.4%) for 169.2pts (+95.6%)
  • LTO winners are 35/144 (24.3%) for 42.9pts (+29.8%)

AND..male non-hcp hurdlers are 36/142 (25.4% SR) for 183.9ts (+129.5% ROI), of which...

  • 5 yr olds are 20/79 (25.3%) for 125.7pts (+159.2%)
  • LTO winners are 9/29 (31%) for 9.83pts (+33.9%)
  • and in 2016 : 6/12 (50%) for 6.04pts (+50.3%)

with 5 yr old male non-hcp hurdlers who won LTO winning 5 of 15 (33.3%) for 4.2pts at an ROI of 28%, which is a pretty good return for an exposed MO...

...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Templehills at 11/4 BOG, which was offered in a half dozen or so places at 6.25pm on Tuesday. I'd use Bet365 if possbile, in case it drifts and we can get BOG plus but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Ludlow.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Placepot pointers – Sunday May 8

PLUMPTON – MAY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,351.70 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 6 (Royal Plaza) & 10 (Searching)

Leg 2 (2.50): 9 (Rivermouth), 10 (Up Four It) & 1 (Onwiththeparty)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Bawden Rocks), 5 (Major Martin) & 2 (Ya Hafed)

Leg 4 (4.00): 2 (Hermosa Vanquera), 6 (Warrant Officer) & 4 (Londonia)

Leg 5 (4.30): 5 (Byron Flyer) & 1 (Libeccio)

Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Hindon Road) & 3 (Money Talks)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: Five-year-olds have the best record in recent times having secured four of the last eleven contests, statistics which include the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013.  Vintage representatives are 2/1 to extend the trend before the form book enters the equation this time around, the pick of which are PITON PETE and ROYAL PLAZA (Alan King) from my viewpoint.  Alan has his team in fine form, with four of his last six runners having won before Saturday's sport was contested.  Many punters will give another Gary Moore raider (see favourite stats below) a chance which on this occasion is SEARCHING, though they might take a look at the favourite stats below before piling in.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 14 jollies have reached the frame (three winners), whilst 27 of the 35 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 8/1 or less.  That said, the 2014 (Gary Moore trained) 1/3 market leader was not among them!  Gary made amends by winning with one of the two 6/4 joint favourites twelve months ago, Gary's second victory in this event in the last eight years.

2.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-11 and horses down the weights to consider include RIVERMOUTH, UP FOUR IT and (possibly) EXMOOR CHALLENGE.  If the weight stats go base over apex on this occasion, beaten favourite ONWITHTHEPARTY could go close, even from the top of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two winners at 3/1 & 11/4.  The last three winners have scored at 20/1-16/1-16/1.

Plumpton record of course winners in the second event:

1/5--Frank N Fair

3.25: YA HAFAD returns to defend his crown after being the third seven-year-old winner last year via just four renewals. YA HAFED should get his (fast) ground conditions unless the threat of overnight thunderstorms prove accurate.  A trio of seven-year-olds have been offered the green light, and listing two of them in order of preference, I would opt for BAWDEN ROCKS over MAJOR MARTIN.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have finished second (claiming toteplacepot positions) at odds of 11/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 2/1.

Plumpton record of course winners in the third race:

2/10--Ya Hafed

1/5--Roparta Avenue

1/2--Molly Oscar

4.00: Gary Moore has saddled more winners at this meeting (three in total) than any other trainer during a five year study and HERMOSA VANQUERA could be the pick of Gary's seven representatives on the card.  Connections of the six-year-old might have most to fear from the likes of WARRANT OFFICER (given a spin on the level ten days ago) and LONDONIA who as a four-year-old, should have less bad habits than some of the other runners in the field.  The overnight reserve nomination is offered to DING DING.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals to date, statistics which include three successful (7/2, 15/8 & 2/1) market leaders.

Plumpton record of course winners in the fourth contest:

2/7--Hermosa Vanquera

1/20--Hawk Gold

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4.30: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals thus far, with the pick of Sunday's representatives likely to be BYRON FLYER and LIBECCIO, marginally ahead of OH LAND ABLOOM according to the gospel of yours truly. That said, the declarations of Cut The Corner and Flashman add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner).

Plumpton record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/1--Libeccio

1/2--Flashman

5.00: With the last 14 winners all carrying weights of 11-9 or less, we can eliminate the top pair if you share my self confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies. The pick of the remaining seven runners will hopefully prove to be LIKE SULLY, MONEY TALKS and HINDON ROAD, another Alan King runner on the card.  The trio is not listed in order of preference at the time of writing because as of now, no decision has been made.

Favourite factor: Three of the last 13 renewals of this toteplacepot finale have been won by market leaders.  Seven of the fourteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Plumpton record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:

1/6--De Blacksmith

1/2--Money Talks

2/5--Golcanova

2/6--Like Scully

2/3--Killabraher cross

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Sunday:

7--Gary Moore (9/48 at Plumpton last season)

4--Zoe Davison (1/10)

4--Chris Gordon (5/30)

4--Sheena West (3/23)

3--Ron Barr (0/5)

3--Johnny Farrelly (2/9)

3--Diana Grissell (2/12)

2--Peter Bowen (0/7)

2--Michelle Bryant (0/7)

2--Mark Hoad (0/14)

2--Linda Jewell (1/22)

2--Alan King (4/10)

2--Neil King (1/8)

2--Michael Madgwick (0/4)

2--Laura Mongan (0/3)

2--Dr Richard Newland (0/3)

2--Steve Woodman (--)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

71 declared runners

 

General overview:

Ludlow:

Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year: 

Ludlow: £136.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Fergal O'Brien secured a 134/1 double last year - runners there on Sunday

 

Plumpton: 

Having to write this type of analysis before the threat of overnight thunderstorms either hit or miss the track is a precarious position to be in.  Make sure you find out the conditions before parting company with your 'heard earned'.