On a day to forget, where pretty much everything I backed ran poorly, it was no great surprise to see Blue Army fade out of contention on the home straight at Kempton.
He was eventually beaten into 4th place a little over 6 lengths behind the winner and the only highlight of the race was the fact that we took 4/1 about a 6/4 favourite, which is always a source of optimism. If you continue to beat the book, you will make profit. I'm sure you're sick of me saying it now!
Anyway, onto Wednesday, where my selection runs in the...
Where you can currently get 11/4 BOG about Dan Skelton's new recruit, the 7 yr old chaser What A Warrior , who looks well placed to add another winner to this fledgling trainer's scoresheet.
Dan's relatively new to training, but he has made an impact already...
And since his first handicap runner a little over a year ago (29/08/13), he's already hitting a strike rate approaching 22% in NH handicap contests. This is thanks to his 30 winners from just 138 runners, who have in turn, netted level stakes profits of 44.1pts at an ROI of 32% to date.
In chases (like today!) the record reads 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) for 29.8pts profit (+35.9% ROI), whilst today's jockey Harry Skelton has ridden 125 of those runners, winning 26 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 36.5pts , or 29.2% of stakes invested.
These figures aren't skewed by a handful of big winners either, as his handicappers in the 2/1 to 12/1 bracket have won 21 of 102 (20.6% SR) races for profits of 57.6pts (+56.5% ROI) with the similarly-priced chasers winning 15 of 61 (24.6% SR) for 34.3pts (+53.6% ROI)
After 27 career starts, it's a yard debut for What A Warrior...
Dan Skelton does well with horses making their yard debut, with an 11/68 (16.2% SR) record to date which has generated 21.1pts (+31.1% ROI) level stakes profits. And with horses aged 5 to years old, the figures read 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 40.3pts (+103.4% ROI).
With yard debutants who have already raced at least five times before moving to Dan's yard, the Skelton team have notched up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for profits of 24.6pts at an ROI of 98.5%.
He has done particularly well with chasers on their yard debut with 8 winners from 126 yielding 33.6pts (+210.3% ROI) profit, and not one of them was priced longer than 12/1, so no oddball result artificially raising the profits. His 7yr old chasers are 4/6 for 22.5pts on yard debut, which is extremely impressive, despite being a very small sample size. Nevertheless, it's a profitable angle and gives us a little added confidence.
What A Warrior performed well in the past for the Twiston-Davies yard in the past and now comes here for a fresh challenge hoping to be revitalised. He hasn't run since being pulled up over this course and distance almost 6 months ago, but if he can regain some of his past form, he looks very well treated here today.
He's a proven Class 2 (and better!) chaser now dropping back to Class 3 racing and running off a mark of just 122, which could very well be exploited considering he won here at Ludlow off 135 last year and was only half a length behind Al Co in second place off 134 in a decent Class 2 handicap chase at Chepstow, before going on to finish third in a Listed race at Ascot just before Christmas.
He, admittedly, went off the boil in the spring and it was felt that he'd benefit from a switch to a new yard, known for breathing fresh life to older horses. A tongue tie is in place today and I'd expect him to be fully involved running fresh after his break.
On past form, he not only fits the stats, but is the best in the race and so I have no hesitation in recommending a 1pt win bet on What A Warrior at 11/4 BOG. I've gone with the Betfair Sportsbook for my bet, but you can get the same price in at least three other places, as you'll see when you...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Stat-of-the-Day.png150150Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2014-10-07 22:02:432014-10-08 08:08:54Stat of the Day, 8th October 2014
Byron Gala hasn't won any of his five starts to date yet, but has been knocking on the door of late (career record 62322 and 232 here at Wolverhampton). he looked set to shed his maiden tag last time out when clear inside the final furlong at Kempton three weeks ago. He wandered around late on, went right and got collared in the final 50 yards. Marco Botti is fitting him with blinkers for the first time today and if they help keep him straight, then he could be a good bet at the 2/1 BOG generally available.
Zamra is 212 in her last three starts and represents James Tate who has a 26% strike rate in the last couple of years and won this very race last year with another filly. She was only beaten by a very well treated 4/7 hotpot last time out on her handicap debut. If she runs to the same level today, her team could well be celebrating a handy 9/4 BOG victory here.
An opening handicap mark of 118 might look a little punitive for Bobble Boru, but this 6yr old mare has won three of her last four starts. But, after just three starts over hurdles, she's still unexposed in this sphere of racing and looks set for another big run. Her handlers think she's a decent prospect, as an entry in the Mares' Final at Newbury would tend to suggest. It looks like this race has been picked out specially for her to get a handicap win under her belt and I'd expect her to do that at 9/4 BOG (most places) today.
She only faces three rivals here today and Bollin Judith looks to be making up the numbers (watch her win at 16/1 BOG now!), which leaves me with a straight choice between Loyaute and Springinherstep. There's not much between the pair really, but the fact that the 7/4 BOG favourite has struggled in each of her three handicap outings to date, is now fitted with a hood for the first time and might also need a run after a 14-week break means I'm turning to the better value Loyaute as my backup plan.
Loyaute was, admittedly, disappointing when finishing 4th last time out at Exeter, but it might pay to recall that in her previous run, she beat Boltimore Rock by almost 4 lengths over today's trip and BR is 2/2 since then, including Grade 3 success at Sandown 12 days ago. Loyaute acts well on today's better ground and if she puts in another run like that penultimate start, she could upset the odds with a win at 11/4 BOG (PP & Betfair Sportsbook)
Two more winners yesterday taking our tally to five doubles in six days and another exacta to boot. Both first choice horses won and both were drifters, meaning that our advised 6.13/1 double actually paid out at 9/1: nice work.
Light The City was huge (in my opinion) at an SP of 3/1 and led from 3f out and really stretched out the pack, winning by 8 lengths in the end, whilst Benefit Cut made all and eased clear from 3 out to score by nine lengths.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Light The City: won at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Mister Frosty: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 2/1) (The Exacta paid £13.20 here)
Benefit Cut: won at 6/4 (adv 11/8)
Mystifiable: u/p at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
139 winning selections from 491 = 28.31%
46 winning doubles in 131 days = 35.11%
P/L : +13.64pts (+5.25% ROI)
I hope to keep the run going with these for Wednesday:
The Romford Pele just about sets the standard amongst these here today with some decent consistent performances of late. He has already shown himself to be better suited at the larger obstacles than he was over hurdles, finishing 233 in his three chases to date and wasn't disgraced by a 10 length margin of defeat in a Grade 2 contest at Newbury at the end of November. He has had the odd hiccup with his jumping and Ludlow's easier fences should be more to his liking.
He's trained by Rebecca Curtis whose horses tend to go well when the mud is flying and he's got the benefit of a certain Mr McCoy on his back and AP is 5/12 on Miss Curtis' horses here at Ludlow, which probably explains the 7/4 pricetag. He won't however have it all his own way and I have a (very!) slight preference for David Pipe's Edmund Kean. He may well have to concede weight all round, but any repeat of the way he ran at Leicester last time out should be enough here.
He jumped well that day and stayed on well to win on his chasing debut and he finished the race in a manner that suggests there's much more to come and that a price of 15/8 might yet prove to be a tad generous. The Pipe yard is renowned for its 3 miles and beyond chasers and this may well be the next off the production line.
Addikt appeared to be the subject of some large bets last week before being a self-certified non-runner (not that I'm suggesting foul play!) and although it has been 8 races since he last won, that last win was over this very course and distance. There has been plenty of discussion about horses dropping down the weights very quickly in light of the "Curley Coup" the other week and this horse might be another to benefit from a plummeting rating.
He won over C&D nine races ago off a mark of 60 and could well be thrown in here off 48. Today will be his fourth career attempt over course and distance and he has won all three previous runs off marks of 60, 65 and 60. He looks a decent proposition at 3/1 here.
Polydamos is an interesting challenger, who went close here over a mile five days and he was only beaten by a neck whilst staying on strongly, which suggests the extra 2 furlongs might suit him here. Despite that showing, he gets to run off the same mark for this one and it is hoped that the appication of a visor can make the difference between him coming very close (4232 in his last 4 outings) and finally getting his nose in front. He's a very viable alternative at 7/2.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with PP as follows:
The Romford Pele / Addikt @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1)
The Romford Pele / Polydamos @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2)
Edmund Kean / Addikt @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1)
Edmund Kean / Polydamos @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2)
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Double-Dutch.png700600Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2014-02-04 19:06:562014-02-11 16:54:34Double Dutch, 5th February 2014
A two-mile Class 4 Novices Hurdle, where I'm siding with Minella Reception, who comes here for his second UK start for Rebecca Curtis after nine (6 bumpers, 3 hurdles) races in Ireland for John Nallen.
Now, Miss Curtis doesn't send many runners to compete in either bumpers or hurdle races here at Ludlow, but since the turn of 2009 her record in those races with horses priced at 6/1 or under is 10 winners from 21 (47.6% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.2pts , an ROI of 105.8%.
When isolating just her hurdlers here with the same odds parameters, we see an excellent record of 7/13 (53.8% SR) for a return of 17.7pts (+136% ROI).
Rebecca Curtis is also known for being able to get her horses to perform in the boggiest of conditions, with a very good record on the type of ground we'll see here today (officially Heavy, Soft in places).
In the last four years her record with runners priced at 6/1 or under on Soft or Heavy ground is 48 winners from 151 runners, a strike rate of 31.8% generating profits of 39.5pts in the process, a very healthy 26.2% return on stakes invested. On heavy ground alone (which is where we'll probably end up!) the figures improve to 19/63 (30.2% SR) for 21pts (+33.3% ROI) profit.
Should this one contract in price, I wouldn't worry too much, those running at under 4/1 are currently 17/50 (34% SR) for 20pts (+40% ROI) profit.
As for Minella Reception himself, he's hardly been overworked as an 8 yr old with just 10 races under his belt in almost two and a half years, so he's nowhere near being overexposed. Today is just his fifth effort over hurdles and despite a career record of just one win in ten, he has shown some promise along the way. In addition to his sole victory to date, he has finished second on three occasions (beaten by a neck, half a length and a head) and also has a third place to his name.
He has a win and two seconds on Soft/Heavy ground with a record of 125 on Heavy. The 5th place was his last outing and yard debut a month ago when beaten by 4.5 lengths at Ffos Las. He's entitled to have needed the run that day after a five-month break and he should strip fitter for that run.
There are a couple of obvious dangers towards the head of the market, but despite this being a field of 15, there doesn't seem to be too much depth to it, so I'm happy to stake my 1pt bet on Minella Reception at 3/1 BOG with Bet365. I've actually had to wait 12 hours since writing the piece to get a price on this one and Bet365 are the first to show.
With that in mind, you might get a better price by waiting a little longer for the other firms to price this up. The easiest way to do this is to...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Stat-of-the-Day.png150150Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2014-01-16 08:19:332014-01-16 08:19:33Stat of the Day, 16th January 2014
Successes at 4/1 and & 7/4 got us back to winning ways with a 12.75/1 double after a couple of frustrating days of hard luck and near misses.
Edmund was tracking the leaders and going well enough before coming to grief at the 7th, where Decent Lord took the lead and never really looked like relinquishing it from that point. He went clear with 3 fences still to jump and he eased home by a good dozen lengths.
As expected, Alutiq had too much class for her rivals in our second contest and despite being held up and giving the leader a good five lengths start with less than two furlongs to go, she still flew home to win by half a length and book her place for Finals Day. Ticking Katie started well enough, but weakened disappointingly in the latter stages and finished last of the six runners.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Decent Lord : won at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Edmund : faller at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Alutiq : won at 5/4 (adv 7/4)
Ticking Katie : 6th of 6 at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
119 winning selections from 413 = 28.81%
38 winning doubles in 111 days = 34.23%
P/L : +14.44pts (+6.56% ROI)
We look to build on yesterday's excellent result with these from Thursday's card:
The obvious starting point here is Joanne One who seeks a hat-trick over hurdles and also looks to register her fifth win in six starts. This makes her probably the one the others will have to beat if they want to land this one. She looks reasonably treated off 120 for her handicap debut and there's also the AP factor to consider. The booking of the champ to ride her for the first time is a significant sign to me and the current 13/8 BOG at Coral may well descend quickly towards being very short come race time.
Of the others, I find Astigos very interesting and possibly overpriced. He made his UK debut on New Years' Day at Cheltenham and was pulled up before completing the 3m trip he was asked to attempt. The assessor seems to have taken pity on him and dropped him 6lbs, as he comes here for a race some 3 furlongs shorter than last time.
I think a lack of knowledge about this horse must be the main reason for him being available as long as 4/1 BOG (Boylesports & PP), because that does seem rather generous about a horse twice placed in Listed handicaps in France over 2m4f on heavy ground at a higher weight than the featherweight he carries today.
The ground is due to play some part in this one and as such, you've got to like Lord of House here. He's 11612 on heavy ground, which is by far the best on show here and he was only narrowly defeated over this trip in similar conditions on New Year's Eve. He was giving the useful-looking winner, Tresor de Bontee, a stone that day and although he's top weight here, I don't think any of these rivals are as good as that winner.
Two miles in the mud suits him, he's 34112 at this trip and 112 over 2m on heavy. Lots of numbers, I know, but Lord of House is hard to ignore at an attractive-looking 3/1 BOG (generally available)
Of his five rivals, I'd suggest that the unexposed Rio de Sivola makes most appeal at 9/4 BOG (Betfred & Coral). This is only his fifth start to date and he finished third in both his hurdles effort (both on heavy ground), before making a winning start to his chase career at Warwick back in November. His latest run was a runner-up position at Ascot on Soft ground.
He's already shown plenty of potential and any natural progression would make him a real danger, lurking at the bottom of the weights. We should also remember that his trainer is a dab hand with horses on heavy ground.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows: Joanne One / Rio de Sivola @ 7.53/1 (Coral 13/8 & 9/4)
Joanne One / Lord of House @ 9.50/1 (Coral 13/8 & 3/1)
Astigos / Rio de Sivola @ 14/1 (Boylesports, PP 4/1 & 2/1 )
Astigos / Lord of House @ 17.75/1 (Boylesports, PP 4/1 & 11/4 )
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Double-Dutch.png700600Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2014-01-15 21:50:562014-01-15 21:52:44Double Dutch, 16th January 2014
It was another of those frustrating "1 from 2" days yesterday and we normally love to see horses winning at 100/1, just to upset the natural balance of things from time to time, but not when we've backed against them!
Things kicked off nicely as Frost Fire was yet another USA winner at Southwell at 11/4 with our second choice Ivy Port next in line, almost two lengths behind. There was a nice little £8.80 Exacta to sweeten the deal too, as we switched our focus to Fakenham...
...where we got stung by Miss Biscotti a pillar to post 100/1 winner! Both our selections has been well backed (5/4 jt favs), but the best we could manage was 3rd and 4th, 3.75 and 6.25 lengths off the pace respectively.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Frost Fire: won at 11/4
Ivy Port: 2nd at 5/2 The exacta paid £8.80 here.
Great Oak: 3rd of 6
Java Rose: 4th of 6
Results to date:
87 winning selections from 314 = 27.71%
26 winning doubles in 85 days = 30.59%
P/L : +8.97pts (+5.34% ROI)
We've given some profit back this week, so a return to winning ways would be welcome from these:
Where King Massini looks well poised to defy a 6lb penalty to record a third win in four outings: his only defeat in the last three was when he went down by a head here at Ludlow a fortnight over an inadequate trip a half-mile shorter than today. Either side of that run, he was victorious over course and distance here 23 days ago on similarly Good to Soft ground to today and he won over today's trip at Cheltenham five days ago.
He beat some decent sorts last Friday and provided that run hasn't taken too much from him, any kind of repeat of that performance should be more than enough to take this at a generally available 9/4 price. We might get more rain as the day progresses, but he has gone well on softer ground than this in the past.
Should this effort prove a step too far, then I'd have Big News as my Plan B horse. He had travelled strongly throughout his last race (seasonal reappearance) before falling late on. He has a win and a place from 4 efforts on soft ground (which is probably what we'll end up with here!) and his record over today's trip reads 126, including a soft ground course and distance win back in February.
I like the look of Big News today, so much so that I had a nibble at him at 7/1 E/W last night and he now goes into my doubles this morning at 5/1 after attracting overnight support.
Honey of a Kitten is likely to be sent off a fairly warm favourite and currently trades at 2/1 generally. He has won 6 times (from 30 attempts = 20% SR) this year already and backing him to a £10 stake every race would have netted you £106.30 profit, a more than satisfactory 35% return on your money. He has won three times at this track, including twice from four races over course and distance (1713 finishes).
He's very consistent indeed, just two finishes outside the first three home in his last 14 efforts on A/W surfaces (33131661123122) and easily brings the best form to the table here. I'd be very surprised if he didn't win today and totally shocked if he doesn't place.
Tartan Gigha is the most likely challenger and rates as biggest danger in my eyes. Bare form might not suggest he's up to much, but his 6th place at Kempton last time is better than it looks on paper. He was only beaten by three lengths that day at 20/1 and was only a length and a half behind the runner-up in a blanket finish for third place three weeks ago. That represented his best run for a while and it looks like he's coming back to some form.
He takes a drop in class today, which makes any kind of repeat performance too good for the majority of these here today and he gets to run off the same mark of 70 today, some 8lbs lower than his last winning mark and this is for a horse that has Class 2 victories off 100 to his name! At 8yrs of age, he's clearly not the force of old, but there's still enough there to be competitive at this level and he looks a decent backup at 3/1
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows: King Massini / Honey of a Kitten @ 25/3 (Stan James : 9/4 & 15/8) King Massini / Tartan Gigha @ 11/1 (Betfred, Totesport : 2/1 & 3/1) Big News / Honey of a Kitten @ 17/1 (Seanie Mac, PP and/or Boylesports : 5/1 & 2/1) Big News / Tartan Gigha @ 43/2 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac & PP : 5/1 & 11/4)
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Double-Dutch.png700600Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2013-12-18 09:46:022013-12-18 09:46:02Double Dutch, 18th December 2013
Tuesday was another losing day, but at least we got back on the winning trail with the 9/4 winner in race 2. I know it's scant consolation, but it is a step back in the right direction after the failings of the last few days.
Earlier, Moorlands Jack fell 2 from home when in contention, whilst Last Shot came home last of the 5 runners who did finish. And then AP McCoy kept Fly Home Harry up to his work and he stayed on well to win by almost 2 lengths with Vasco Pierji back in third, almost six lengths behind him.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Last Shot: unplaced
Moorlands Jack: fell
Fly Home Harry: won at 9/4
Vasco Pierji: last of 5!
Results to date:
74 winning selections from 261 = 28.35%
22 winning doubles in 71 days = 30.99%
P/L : -4.50pts (-3.21% ROI)
A 4.5pt deficit isn't insurmountable by any means, but it would be nice to make some inroads into it today with these:
Bancnuanaheireann drops into Class 2 racing today after a tremendous run over course and distance in a Listed event last time out. He finished second in the Churchill Stakes that day and he was only beaten by just over two lengths and any repeat of that run or his previous outing (winner of a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket) should be more than enough for him to take this at odds of 7/4 (Coral).
The most likely of the other four runners to give him most problems should be Uramazin (7/2 generally). This one has won a Group 2 race in Hong Kong and ran to within half a length of Bancnuanaheireann here in that C&D Churchill Stakes 17 days ago. If the favourite isn't quite at it here, then this would leave the door wide open providing he keeps closer to the front of the pack this time.
Neil Mulholland's horses are going really well of late with 6 wins from 18 in the last fortnight and I'd expect Pass The Time to improve that record for him. This 4yr old filly is already proving to be a consistent performer over hurdles with 3 wins and 3 places from just 8 starts. She was a winner last time out at Taunton and although she's up 7lbs to a mark of 118 here, the way she put that last race to bed was very impressive indeed.
It was only six days ago when she took on the 135-rated dual Listed race winner She Ranks Me and prevailed by 11 lengths in a comfortable win and I think there's still more to come from this one and should well take this at 7/4 BOG.
I suppose there'll be doubts whether or not this race is too soon for her and if that proves to be the case, then this could very well suit Buxom, who is currently available at 11/4. Buxom was also a good winner last time out, as she ground out a one length victory on soft ground at Huntingdon three weeks ago and confidence will be high as she attempts to double up on better ground.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows: Bancnuanaheireann / Pass The Time @ 7.56 with Coral Bancnuanaheireann / Buxom @ 9.84 with BetVictor Uramazin / Pass The Time @ 12.38 with Bet365, BetVictor and Coral Uramazin / Buxom @ 16.88 with BetVictor
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Double-Dutch.png700600Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2013-12-03 21:24:142013-12-03 21:24:14Double Dutch, 4th December 2013
Monbeg was terribly disappointing on Tuesday afternoon and never really featured in the race at all. He was in the rear throughout and began to struggle quite a long way from home and was left a long way behind the others.
Although he plugged on to complete the race, he finished a good 55 lengths or so off the winner, as he trailed home last of the 6 runners to finish, despite being sent off as the 3/1 favourite.
More chasing action for Wednesday as we aim our sights at the...
Where the selection is Oscar Hill, currently available at 5/2 with BetVictor and is trainer David Bridgwater's only runner of the day.
David Bridgwater is one of a small group of trainers that you can back blindly in handicap races and still make a profit. His best returns of late have come in handicap chases like this one if you had backed all his handicap chasers in the last three years that were sent off at 8/1 or under, you have made a tidy profit from your investments.
In fact, he has saddled up 22 winners from 75 handicap chasers in that timeframe, which is a fantastic 29.33% strike rate and has generated 40.9pts profits to level stakes, a return on investment of 54.5%.
Oscar Hill is still unexposed over fences and comes here on the back of an easy win at Exeter last time out. He made all that day and although he was left in the lead as his nearest rival fell 2 from out, he did look like he was going to win comfortably anyway.
As it happens, he got home by some 18 lengths easing down and the manner of that performance would suggest he'll cope with a 7lb penalty to double up here. A slight drop back in trip won't do his chances any harm either.
There is a good chance that he'll attract money and go off as favourite for this one, but favourites in handicap races at Ludlow do better than expected with 24 winners from 72 (33.33% SR) in the last two years producing 15.9pts (+22.1% ROI) profit. Favourites in handicap chases have a 35% strike rate (15/40) in that same time period and have generated level stakes profits of 12.6pts, equivalent to 31.5% of stakes.
5/2 is getting towards the bottom end of the odds range for SotD, but I still think there could be some value in that price, so the advice is a 1pt win bet on Oscar Hill at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor. We're well aware that there's a whole host of other bookies vying for your business, so why not...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Stat-of-the-Day.png150150Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2013-12-03 20:40:312013-12-03 20:41:55Stat of the Day, 4th December 2013
I suppose that we were due a poor weekend after the recent good run run we'd been on.
Saturday's losses were repeated yesterday, where Azorian's three length defeat in the opener was the best I could manage for you. Things went from bad to worse in race 2, whereI embarassinly picked the 3rd and 4th placed horses in a 4-horse race!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Azorian: 2nd at 2/1
Carriganog: 3rd at 7/2
According To Trev: 3rd of 4! (SP 11/10)
Sonofvic: last of 4!
Results to date:
69 winning selections from 227 = 30.40%
21 winning doubles in 62 days = 33.87%
P/L : +7.00pts (+5.74% ROI)
No time to dwell upon the wekkend's results as I'm aining to get back to winnnig ways with the following...
Despite being raised a massive 16lbs for his recent win at Stratford, I still fancy What A Good Night to follow up here. He was a 31 lengths winner that day, but that doesn't tell the full story. he was unchallenged from 2 out and could easily have doubled that margin of victory had he wanted to. Any repeat of that showing should be more than enough here and the 15/8 on offer from both BetVictor and Stan James might end up looking generous.
The main challenge is expected to come from Long Wave (9/2 BOG in most places) and King Massini, who is generally a 3/1 shot. King Massini's yard have a good record here and his recent efforts in Irish points races suggest he'll be suited to 3m chases, but I'm going to side with Long Wave.
Long Wave has let his backers down recently with finishes of 334 as favourite in his last three outings since winning at Uttoxeter four months ago. He has, however, been given some respite from the handicapper and runs off a mark two pounds lower than that win and the presence of Kielan Woods in the saddle taking another 3lbs off mkaes him a dangerous contender at a good price, should the favourite labour under the burden of those extra 16lbs.
Like Long Wave above, Frontier Vic has also let favourite backers down in his last couple of outings since a win, but looks to have a decent chance of making amends here at a widely available 11/4. He still looks fairly well treated at the weights for this contest and I'm sure he'll relish the step up in trip, as his last two efforts were clearly in races far too short for him.
My preference here, however, is for Realta Mo Croi, who can also be backed at 11/4 (Stan James alone here). She was raised 21lbs off the back of an easy win at Fontwell in June, before taking a 4 month break. She was popular in the market on her first effort at the new mark and ran very creditably to finish 4th of 16 with a mistake at the last costing her at least one place.
She should come on for that run from 18 days ago and I expect to see her back in the winners enclosure later this afternoon.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows: What A Good Night / Realta Mo Croi @ 10.80 with both Stan James and Coral What A Good Night / Frontier Vic @ 10.80 with Stan James Long Wave / Realta Mo Croi @ 20.63 with both Stan James and Coral Long Wave / Frontier Vic @ 20.63 with Seanie Mac, BetFred, Stan James & BoyleSports
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Double-Dutch.png700600Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2013-11-25 09:52:472013-11-25 09:52:47Double Dutch, 25th November 2013
After missing out on an 18.25/1 double on Monday, we were not to be denied yesterday as both of our "second picks" brought home the bacon and not only did they dramatically improve our P/L figures, they reinforced the Geegeez mantra about not backing horses at SP.
Our two winners, Desert Society and Ventura Quest came home at 11/4 and 15/8 respectively, which would represent a double at 9.78/1.
Now I wouldn't turn my nose up at that, don't get me wrong, but I advised you to take the BOG odds from William Hill which paid out at 19/1 yesterday. So, the same bet for the same stake paid 94% above SP by taking the early BOG prices.
Anyway lecture over! We had another 1-2 in race 2 which generated a small 5.1/1 exacta and Caridadi lost second place in the shadow of the post in the preceding race to deny any hopes of a forecast double.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Desert Society: won at 9/2 (SP 11/4)
Caridadi: 3rd at 9/4
Ventura Quest: won at 4/1 (SP 15/8)
King of Macedon: 2nd at 11/8 (The Exacta paid £6.10 here to a £1 stake!)
Trial to date:
33 winning selections from 122 = 27.05%
9 winning doubles in 34 days = 26.47%
P/L : -6.72pts (-10.11% ROI)
A decent result today could well see us in positive territory for the first time. Hopefully that will start in the...
This really should be a shoot out between the two at the head of the market, Kathleen Frances and The Road Ahead.
Kathleen Frances has been found lacking for pace in races 4 and 5 furlongs shorter than today and this extra distance should suit her much better here. yet despite not winning races, she's has shown good levels of consistency, finishing second in two of her last four races.Today is her first run for her new trainer and it is hoped she'll go well at odds of 11/4 (Stan James) here.
The Road Ahead will look to build upon her runner-up berth on her hurdling debut at Uttoxeter last time after four promising bumper outings with finishes of 2421. She stepped up in trip to 2m 4.5f for her hurdles debut and seemed to get the trip pretty well, despite being well beaten by the favourite Letsby Avenue. She was just ahead of Billfromthebar that day and whilst she has been resting, Billfromthebar has won each of his three subsequent races.
If The Road Ahead can follow that kind of form, a 9/4 bet with SportingBet might well pay dividends, giving us a shot at the...
Volume has caught the eye in both of her runs to date. She stayed on well on debut over 7f at Newmarket almost seven weeks to finish third at odds of 66/1. She was stepped up to a mile for her next run, where she won very easily by five lengths and stayed on yet again. She steps up in trip and class again today and they must be the only reasons why she's not odds on here. I struggle to see her getting beat and I'd expect her to shorten from her current 13/8 price on offer from Stan James.
If, however, she doesn't handle the extra furlong today, I'm sure that Gold Trail will be waiting in the wings to pounce. He cost Godolphin 280,000 Euros and is a half-brother to Zafisio, a Group 1 winner over a mile and has Group 3 wins over a mile and also over 10 furlongs. He stayed on well to win at Haydock last time out (1 mile) despite showing plenty of greenness that day. He's expected to come on further for that run and could push Volume all the way today at BetVictor's decent price of 7/2
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
The Road Ahead / Volume @ 8.52 SportingBet (non-BOG) or 7.89 BOG with Stan James
The Road Ahead / Gold Trail @ 13.50 with BetVictor
Kathleen Frances / Volume @ 9.86 with Stan James
Kathleen Frances / Gold Trail @ 16.24 with Stan James
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Double-Dutch.png700600Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngChris Worrall2013-10-09 10:42:092013-10-09 10:44:03Double Dutch, 9th October 2013
Venetia Williams has emerged as a key figure in a consortium that hopes to bring racing back to Hereford in 2014. The group has already brought together £1m that it says it is ready to put in to running the racecourse if that becomes possible. Bob Davies and Willie Jenks, clerk of the course and chairman at neighbouring Ludlow, are also on board. Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00IanShttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngIanS2012-08-10 10:29:162012-08-10 10:29:16£1m ready to rescue Hereford
Good old Johnny G put us in front for the new month of April yesterday, when his Camborne was a very ready winner of a decent Lingfield handicap. He still looked green, but was plenty too good for an established group of Class 4 'cappers, and looks a Class 2 beastie in the making. Definitely one to keep on side, though it should not be assumed he will act as well on turf.
After a couple of more speculative plays the last two days (which both paid off at least to some degree), it's a return to punting 'terra firma' this afternoon, as I nail the SotD colours to the mast of a horse with a proven level of ability. Curtains, surely!
The horse is trained by Tim Vaughan, a man in cracking form with seven winners from 29 runners in the last fortnight. And eleven of the last twelve who completed (two failed) were in the first three!
Today he saddles Elsafeer, in a two mile good ground Class 3 handicap hurdle. Given that this chap can already boast a two mile good ground Listed hurdle win, he has more than enough ability for a race like this.
After that Listed win, he went off co-favourite in a race that Champion Hurdle runner, Brampour, won! He then got stuck in the mud in a race that Cheltenham Festival winner, Attaglance, won! And last time out he was bogged down a little again in a Grade 3 event.
Back to good ground and Class 3, in a small field, ought to be the key to him (he's 4/4 plus a second in fields of eight or less, and 0/5 in bigger fields). 11/4 is available BOG and being taken, so do...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2012-04-05 08:36:372012-04-05 08:36:37Stat of the Day, 5th April 2012
It's Tuesday, so it's time to look at the week ahead, courtesy of Malcolm Boyle's excellent Well I Declare feature. As Mal has rightly identified, the race planning bods have changed quite a lot of the fixtures around last week and this, so the trends are not as strong as usual.
We're all expecting normal service to resume next week with the Grand National meeting, but there are still sure to be some gems in the below.
TUESDAY 3rd April:
General stats: Sometimes I have to offer ‘boring’ stats that top trainers have farmed venues down the years and with Paul Nicholls (33/98) and Nicky Henderson (12/41) leading the strike rates at Fontwell, this is one such racecourse.
2.40: The only favourite not to prevail via four renewals to date was an even money chance which beat the 5/6 market leader in a ‘match’ event two years ago.
General stats: Four of the last nine runners saddled by Tom George have won at the time of writing and with Tom boasting a 25% strike rate here at Sedgefield (2/8), Cottage Acre (5.00) could be worth a saver.
General stats: Apple Blossom Time is blinkered for the first time (5.20) representing Derek Haydn Jones who boasts an LSP figure of sixty two points during the last five years at Southwell.
WEDNESDAY 4th April:
General stats: Donald McCain saddled twenty one winners last month via a 23% strike rate and his representatives have performed well at this venue in the past. Six of his twenty runners have won (30% strike rate) producing an LSP figure of eight points in the process.
Class 4 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: The last four winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more whilst favourites have secured three of the last seven contests.
General stats: Although Jim Best, Warren Greatrex, Nicky Henderson and Gary Moore have better strike rates of the potentially represented trainers on Wednesday, Charlie Longsdon’s 118 points of level stake profits (26% S/R) grabs the headlines at Hereford.
Two and a half mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals. Just one favourite obliged during the same period, flanked by gold medallists which were returned at 25/1-14/1-14/1-8/1.
General stats: Tom Dascombe’s runners have been figuring prominently in recent days and his level stake profits at Lingfield of sixty three points certainly catch the eye. Pat Phelan is another trainer whose runners deserve plenty of respect via his seventy three point LSP return during the last five years.
General stats: The usual suspects line up at Wolverhampton with Mark Johnston still leading the way in terms of trends. That said, Frank Sheridan remains a trainer to keep on the right side having recorded an LSP figure over one hundred and twenty points at the venue in recent times.
THURSDAY 5th April:
General stats: Having ridden four of his six mounts at Folkestone to winning effect thus far, Kieran O’Neill’s solitary booking at the time of writing caught the eye. Reinvigorate was taken out of a Kempton event at the weekend and Richard Hannon potentially re-routes the juvenile to the Kent venue with O’Neill supposedly in the plate. Richard boasts an LSP figure of 24% at Folkestone which is bettered by Stuart Kittow (33%) and William Knight (36%) though naturally, far less runners have been sent out by those trainers. Paul Cole and Clive Cox also raid the racecourse to good effect.
2YO maiden event scheduled for 2.40: Multiple entries in just a twelve strong five-day field were held by Mick Channon (4), Richard Hannon (2) and David Evans (2).
General stats: Martin Keighley and Charlie Egerton boast decent strike rates though Nicky Henderson very much rules the roost here at Ludlow. Nicky has saddled forty winners during the last five years producing an LSP figure of fifteen points via a 38% strike rate, which is formidable given the number of runners the trainer saddled at the course.
Two and a half mile novice chase event scheduled for 2.50: Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls shared the four top weighted horses for the this contest at the penultimate entry stage. Evan was responsible for six of the seventeen potential runners at the time.
Three mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Five favourites have won via seven contests thus far, whilst the same umber of gold medallists carried a minimum weight of eleven stones to success. Keith Goldsworthy has saddled the last two winners and his only entry at the time of writing was Oca De Thaix.
General stats: Steve Dixon holds just one entry at the track on Thursday which is Warsaw Pact (due to contest the scheduled 2.00 event). Steve has saddled three of his ten runners at the course to winning effect, with Jim Best (two potential representatives) also recording good figures at Wincanton. Jim’s record of 4/12 in recent times has produced a positive LSP figure, though nothing like Steve’s thirty nine points of profit.
Twenty seven furlong handicap chase event scheduled for 4.00: All three market leaders have finished out with the washing thus far. The three winners carried weights of 11-3 or more, as have six of the seven horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.
NO RACING GOOD FRIDAY, 6TH APRIL
SATURDAY 7th April:
General stats: Musselburgh also race on Sunday and Bryan Smart held eighteen declarations for the two day meeting at the time of writing. Bryan boasts a 25% recent record producing an LSP figure of forty six points, whilst other trainers to take into account are Julie Camacho (4/9) and Rae Guest (2/4).
2YO maiden event scheduled for 2.45: Seventeen of Bryan Smart’s twenty seven recent winners at Musselburgh have hailed from the trainer’s juvenile ranks and Rhagori Aur was Bryan’s only potential runner in the race. The Exceed And Excel filly should be followed through the early weeks of the season irrespective of how she performs here (if taking her chance) as Bryan thinks a great deal of his potential raider. That said, Richard Fahey comes into the contest on a hat trick having secured a silver medal with his only other runner in the race. Richard’s only option earlier in the week was his Kyllachy colt Polski Max. It’s worth noting that Woodford Mill (touted up in this column last week before wining at 5/1) won the first juvenile race for the season for Richard, who scored with six of the first sixteen two-year-olds he saddled last year.
Five furlong conditions event scheduled for 4.25: Bryan Smart secured the previous two renewals before an 18/1 inmate ran third in the contest last year. Note the general stats for Bryan above whilst digesting the fact that Bryan held just the one entry (Excel Bolt) for the contest at the five day stage. The five favourites thus far have secured four gold and one silver medal.
General stats: Manadam was the only potential Ian Williams (2/4 at the track) runner earlier in the week, whilst Mick Easterby is the other trainer to keep on the right side. The dual purpose trainer has made a decent start on the level this week but his heart lies in the NH sector I fancy and Mick revels in training winners at the northern venues.
General stats: Caroline Bailey (4/9) and Nick Williams (5/16) are ‘new kids on the block’ to take note of, even though this is very much Donald McCain country. Colin Tizzard and Lucy Wadham have both saddled three winners form a small number of runners at the track.
Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.55: Favourites come into the event on a four timer, whilst eight-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.
Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.05: Two favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four renewals (no winners).
Three and a half mile handicap chase event scheduled for 4.40: We still await the first successful favourite following five contests thus far.
Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last three winners of the closing bumper event which is due to be contested at 5.15. Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.
General stats: David Pipe has not quite lived up to dad’s ‘monopoly’ of Newton Abbot contests despite sending out thirty seven winners in recent years. Martin didn’t have Paul Nicholls to contend with for many years however, the Ditcheat based handler boasting a 32% strike rate via forty six gold medallists in the last five years. Bedarra Boy would be an interesting raider from David Arbuthnot’s yard if given the green light.
General stats: Charlie Hills had won with four of this last ten runners when writing this column early on Tuesday morning and it was great to witness Barry supervising representatives at Kempton on Saturday. Charlie has already saddled three winners at Kempton during his brief career at the helm and plenty more winners will be saddled at the Sunbury circuit.
2YO maiden event scheduled for 1.35: Three favourites have won via six renewals thus far, with Richard Hannon scoring on two occasions. Richard held two options at the time of writing. Mick Channon is entering plenty of juvenile runners during the early days of the turf season with another four inmates potentially running here.
Class 2 one mile qualifier scheduled for 2.05: All six winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more thus far during which time, two favourites have prevailed.
Listed one mile fillies event scheduled for 2.40: Just five of the thirteen penultimate stage entries were four-year-olds which was surprising, given that vintage representatives have won seven of the eight contests. Three favourites have obliged whilst six winners scored at odds of 9/2 or less.
‘Queen’s Prize’ scheduled for 3.15: Four-year-olds have won half of the renewals during the last decade during which time, four favourites have scored.
Class 3 seven furlong handicap: Mark Johnston claimed this event two years ago and the trainer was represented by four inmates at the penultimate stage. Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer, whilst the biggest priced winner via six renewals was returned at just 5/1.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00MalBoylehttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMalBoyle2012-04-03 08:16:352012-04-03 08:35:43Well I Declare, 3rd April 2012
Well, I know I can't keep saying this (or perhaps I can!), but yesterday's was another to go in the notebook, as a very tenderly handled Definite Memories gave the impression that he'll win when they're ready and this was a very nice introduction.
Held up off the pace, he was never placed to win and stayed on well under a hand ride for fourth.
Much more to come.
I'll put together a little notebook of the SotD horses to follow at some point.
Also, if you're interested in the results so far, Chris has pulled together a post with that info in it. You can see that here.
Today, we’re off to Ludlow for another novice hurdle, the…
One of Wales' rising stars in the training ranks is Rebecca Curtis. In fairness, she is supported by owners such as JP McManus, which always helps!
Nonetheless, she's made a fine start to her career, and her record at Ludlow is noteworthy. In fact, she's run 24 horses, of which seven have won for a small profit of just under a fiver.
But the hurdlers are the ones. Curtis' timber-toppers are six from fifteen and a lovely 10.02 units up on the gig.
I'm not confident that Monte Cavallo will be that much of a price today, after a debut second last time, but he must have a sound chance in a race that looks more quantity than quality.
Saying that, there are entries from the Henderson and McCain stables, the latter of which is flying at the moment. But La Curtis knows what she's doing, and she'll do for me this afternoon. At least this one won't be given a 'schooling' ride, so our fate ought to be sealed on ability alone!
There was no betting at the time of writing, so do…
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2012-02-22 08:19:522012-02-23 10:31:50Stat of the Day: 22nd Feb 2012
Nicky Henderson has been in blistering form (except when I've backed him) in recent weeks, and he has won this race in three of the last four runnings (no runner in the other year).
He looks to Brave Alliance this afternoon, steered by AP McCoy.
This will be Brave Alliance's first public outing over hurdles and her jumping must be taken on trust. It may be instructive that Henderson has chosen to pitch her in here against some quite promising mares.
However, as with the last couple of days, the racing continues to be below average, and wagering should be kept to small stakes. There is a glut of far better fare for those who can keep their powder dry until Boxing Day!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.png00Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/gg-logo-new.pngMatt Bisogno2011-12-21 08:07:512011-12-21 08:07:51Stat of the Day: 21st Dec 2011