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Chester Cup Trends

The Chester Cup, run at Chester Racecourse over 2m2f, is the feature race of their three-day May Meeting (5th-7th) – Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and highlights some key betting trends and stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year the race will be run on Friday 7th May 2021.

Did you know ? Since 1975 we've only had 4 winning Chester Cup favourites win the race

 

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Recent Chester Cup Winners

2020 – No Race
2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
2017 - Montaly (16/1)
2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
2014 – Suegioo (10/1)
2013 – Address Unknown (12/1)
2012 – Il De Re (10/1)
2011 – Overturn (11/2)
2010 – Mamlook (7/1 fav)
2009 – Daraahem (7/1)
2008 – Bulwark (33/1)
2007 – Greenwich Meantime (14/1)
2006 – Admiral (28/1)
2005 – Anak Pekan (16/1)
2004 – Anak Pekan (2/1 fav)
2003 – Hugs Dancer (9/1)
2002 – Fantasy Hill (8/1)

Chester Cup Betting Trends

17/18 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
15/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/18 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/18 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
12/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/18 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/18 – Carried 9-2 or less
12/18 – Had raced within the last 2 months
12/18 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
11/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Favourites were unplaced
8/18 – Irish bred
4/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/18 – Had won at the track before
3/18 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
3/18 – Won their previous race
2/18 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/18 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 12/1

 

Key Chester Cup Stats

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 7 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 10 winners came from NH yards
3 of the last 8 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 12 winners

What do the stats say?

Age – In 2016, we saw an 8 year-old land the race, but since 1986 all bar that winner were aged 7 or younger. In more recent years, 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 or younger too, while 13 of the last 18 successful horses were aged 5, 6 or 7. That said, you certainly can’t rule out the 4 year-olds, with the last winner in 2019 – Making Miracles – this age, while we’ve had two 4 year-olds go in since 2015. In short, it’s probably best to avoid the older horses (8+) in the race!

Recent Form – With a massive 12 of the last 18 winners having finished unplaced last time out, then don’t be too worried if your fancy heads here without some 1’s, 2’s or 3’s next to it’s name. But having winning form over at least 2m on the flat in the past is something to look for, while having a run within the last two months is another plus – 12 of the last 18 winners ticked this trend.

Weight – Being a handicap, then it’s always worth looking back at past weight stats. 12 of the last 18 winners carried 9st 2lbs or less, but with the last three winners and 5 of the last 7 winners carrying 9st or more, then this weight trend might be taking a slight turn in the other direction. Since 1981, only seven winners have carried more than 9st 2lb to victory. However, with 13 of the last 18 winners rated between 93-99, which is, of course, closely linked with the weight stat, could be another angle into the race.

Draw – Most of us know that Chester is one of the tightest flat tracks around, so even over this longer 2m2f trip then the draw can play a big part. It’s normally a race that’s well contested too – in 2019 there were 15 runners – so having a decent early pitch can often be the difference between winning and losing. This is backed up with 12 of the last 18 winners drawn from stalls 7 or lower, but the 2019 winner – Making Miracles – did defy this stat by winning from stall 16.

Favourites – It’s not been a great race for favourite backers – since 1975, we’ve only had four winning market leaders and only two in the last 18 runnings. The averaging winning SP in the last 18 years has been 12/1 and with 11 of the last 18 winners priced 10/1 or shorter, then outside the favourite you generally don’t have to look too far down the market to find the winner.

Trainers – I’ve already mentioned this is a race the NH yards often target – in the last 10 renewals we’ve seen four winners from jumping stables take the first prize, while in terms of other yards to note, the Richard Fahey and Ian Williams camps have both won the race twice each since 2007. It’s also a race that popular owner – Dr Marwan Koukash – loves to throw a few arrows at. His grey silks have been responsible for four of the last 12 winners and he’s sure to have some targeted at the race again this year.

 

 

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