Well I Declare, by Malcolm Boyle
Consistent winning trainers were hard to find during the corresponding week last year (Tuesday through Saturday) as the featured number plummeted compared to recent weeks.
Last week’s haul of twenty three winners still puts in a positive mood going into another week however, especially with two of the gold medallists scoring at 16/1 & 14/1.
Last year’s leading trainers during the corresponding period:
4 winners--Ralph Beckett: (11/1-6/1-9/4**-15/8*)
4--Richard Hannon (13/2-9/2-10/3-2/1)
Other trainers to note:
Declan Carroll saddled two winners at (16/1 & 8/1)
James Given also bagged a pair at 10/1 & 8/1.
6--Paul Nicholls (8/1-11/4*-85/40-2/1-8/11*-8/13*)
3--Vic Dartnell (16/1-9/2-3/1***)
3--Alan King (7/2-15/8*-7/4*)
3--Oliver Sherwood (14/1-6/1-6/5*)
Others of particular interest:
2--Ann Hamilton: (11/1 & 9/2)
2--Emma Lavelle (14/1 & 12/1)
2--Ferdy Murphy (10/1 & 8/1)
2--David Pipe (10/1 & 13/2)
Doubles (or more) on the day:
535/1 four timer for Richard Hannon
98/1 double for James Given
Oliver Sherwood secured a 14/1 double at Towcester
George Prodromou landed a 35/1 double on the level.
The week’s major player was Paul Nicholls, who saddled six winners on the day which equated to a 881/1 accumulator!
Haldon Gold Cup--ten year study report for Tuesday’s renewal:
Record of trainers with declared runners:
Paul Nicholls (Edgardo Sol): Two winners (3/1 &6/5*)--five places--nine unplaced
Philip Hobbs (Menorah): Two winners (10/1 & 4/1*)--four unplaced
Colin Tizzard (Cue Card)--Just two unplaced runners to report.
The other two trainers have not been represented during the study period.
Favourite stats: 2 winners--3 placed--5 unplaced
First three in the betting record: 6 winners--6 placed--20 unplaced
Vintage figures (winners--places--unplaced):
Older horses: 4-1-12
Doncaster’s November Handicap details for Saturday:
John Gosden has trained two of the last three winners but with John not being represented this time around, the trainer which catches the eye with a runner is Sir Henry Cecil who would not normally be associated with the final big handicap of the season.
Sir Henry has Last Mohican entered up and this unbeaten three time soft/heavy ground winner is surely the horse to beat in this year’s line up.
The Tobougg gelding sits one spot higher (100) via official ratings than is ideally the case (relevant stats listed below) but what is ‘one spot’ between friends?
2011: 20-5-16-22 (23 ran-soft)
2010: 9-17-5-3 (22 ran-good to soft)
2009: 14-19-9-24 (23 ran-soft)
2008: 22-18-11-7 (21 ran-soft)
2007: 13-17-19-2 (21 ran-good to firm)
2006: Race was contested at Windsor
2005: 18-5-10-8 (21 ran-heavy)
2004: 3-6-1-4 (24 ran-soft)
2003: 14-6-3-2 (24 ran-good)
2002: 20-22-24-17 (23 ran-heavy)
Official ratings: The last eight winners have run off marks ranging between 93 & 99.
Favourites during the study period: Just one favourite has finished in the frame (2008) via eleven representatives (no winners).
3YO: 4 winners & 6 places
4YO: 5 winners & 13 places
5YO: 1 winner & 5 places
Older horses: No winners--six places
Day by day details:
General stats: Opposite scenarios here as Nicky Henderson leads the trainer ranks via a 33% strike rate, whereas Ruby Walsh is the call from the saddle with his 44% ratio. If Nicky and Ruby ever team up at Exeter, we should be on a sure fire winner!
General stats: Rae Guest and Gay Kelleway both have four declarations on the card, going into today’s meeting with identical 3/11 strike rates.
General stats: Seven pound claimer has just the one booked ride at the time of writing, with the talented pilot aboard Gaelic Wizard in the 3.40 contest. Josh boasts a phenomenal 35% strike rate here at South well (7/20), a ratio which is backed up by an LSP reading of fifty one points.
General stats: For The Staff was the only mount for James Best on the card at the weekend, with the jockey boasting a strike rate of 38% (5/13) which has produced level stake profits of twenty eight points.
Two mile Maiden hurdle scheduled for 1.00: Four-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date during which time, just one (8/11) favourite has obliged.
Two and a half mile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 1.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners in the last five years and the trainer held two options for the race at the weekend. Five-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date during which time, two market leaders have obliged.
Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.00: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.
Class 4 handicap chase over the minimum trip scheduled for 2.30: Nine of the last ten contests have been secured by horses carrying a minimum weight of 11-1.
Favourites have won both renewals of the closing bumper event which is due to be contested at 4.15:
General stats: Neil Callan has slowly been moving up the ‘pecking order’ in the jockey sector at Kempton in recent times though that said, the term slow relating to Neil’s eighty eight winners during the last five years at the venue might sound a little harsh! Backing up Neil’s 19% strike rate is a level stake profit of seventy four points.
General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has three declarations at Nottingham on Wednesday with the trainer still reigning supreme via his 37% strike rate at the track. Saeed boasts level profit stakes of fifteen points via twenty two winners to complete the full picture.
12.10 & 12.40 (two divisions): Eighteen of the nineteen available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses aged five or less, stats which include all five winners. Four-year-olds have secured three of the five contests thus far.
1.10: Two of the last three favourites have won this Nursery event which in the context of two-year-old handicaps is a good return.
1.40 & 2.10 (two divisions): Eleven of the last twelve winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which given the context of the race, is a reasonable stat to offer. That said, four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded following a hat trick for market leaders from 2007 through 2009.
2.40: Three and four-year-olds have secured ten of the last nine renewals of this conditions event between them. Junior raiders have secured five of the last seven contests.
General stats: David Pipe boasts a 29% strike rate (12/42) whilst notching thirty eight points of level stake profits for good measure. Only Nicky Henderson’s 32% ratio outpoints David for Wednesday’s card.
4.05: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals of Warwick’s finale.
General stats: Bruce Mactaggart’s strike rate (4/6) is something to behold in Edinburgh, whilst Kate Walton’s 5/19 strike rate is none too shabby either!
General stats; Whilst always taking into account Saeed Bin Suroor’s great (48%) ratio here at Lingfield, new kids on the block Charlie Hills and Ed Walker have done well with their horses at the venue thus far.
General stats: Jonjo O’Neill generally stands out from the crowd because not only does the trainer head the winners list in terms of numbers (twenty two in the last five years), but the popular Irishman also boasts a black figure LSP rating which having saddled 112 runners at the track in recent years, is a difficult double to achieve.
Twenty one furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried eleven stones or more.
Two and three quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.
Bumper event restricted to fillies scheduled for 4.20: Although just three favourites have won via eight renewals to date, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.
General stats: Frank Sheridan is due to start sending out some big priced winners again soon, as his eighty one points of level stake profits prove here at Wolverhampton during the last five years.
General stats: Sophie Leech held one option for the meeting earlier in the week (Kings Queen in the three mile three furlong handicap hurdle) with the trainer boasting a strike rate of 21% which is backed up by fifteen points of level stake profits at the venue.
Conditional jockey’s hurdle event scheduled for 1.10: All five winners have carried weights of 10-9 or less to date, three of which have represented the five-year-old vintage. Just one favourite has prevailed thus far.
Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event due to be contested at 2.10: Favourites have won three of the last four contests.
Class 4 twenty two furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: All five winners have carried a maximum burden of just 10-9. The last two market leaders have obliged, the biggest priced winner thus far being returned at 13/2.
Closing bumper event scheduled for 4.10: Oliver Sherwood comes into the race on a hat trick with trainer holding just one entry earlier in the week, namely his Irish PTP winner Beforeall.
General stats: Two jockeys stand out from the crowd at Hexham in recent times. Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden four of his six mounts to victory, whilst John Winston’s 3/6 ratio would head most lists!
General stats: Evan Williams is another trainer (see earlier Musselburgh comment) who boasts a great strike rate having saddled three of his five runners in Edinburgh to success during the last five years.
General stats: Ed Vaughan’s efforts at Wolverhampton are worth a mention given his 19% strike rate at Dunstall Park which is back up by a health profit of thirty eight points via fourteen winners in recent times.
General stats: Dorcas Lane (scheduled to contest the 2.00 event) was David Lanigan’s only option on the card at the time of writing, David having saddled six of his fifteen runners to Town Moore to success.
Six furlong Nursery due to be contested at 1.25: The last six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-4, whilst three favourite have won via seven renewals during the last decade.
Ten furlong Listed event scheduled for 2.00: Three and four-year-olds have won all nine renewals thus far (juniors lead 5-4).
November Handicap scheduled for 2.35: Whilst digesting the stats and facts in the opening sector of this week’s work, it’s as well to also consider that nine of the last eleven gold medallists carried 9-2 or less.
The four winners of the scheduled seven furlong handicap finale at 3.45 have scored at 33/1-16/1-12/1-8/1 carrying weights of 8-13 or less.
General stats: Lucinda Russell was featured in this column a few weeks ago before hitting a quiet period. Lucinda was back with a bang at the weekend saddling four of her six runners to success, all of which won at tracks which were highlighted at the time. Hexham is another of her favourite ‘hunting grounds’.
Two and three quarter mile NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 6-3 via the ten renewals during the last decade.
Seventeen furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.50: Seven-year-olds have secured two gold and two silver medals in this event via just six representatives to date.
General stats: Neil King is ‘going places’ as a trainer as his 4/15 stats at Sandown confirm, winners which have produced an LSP figure of sixteen points.
Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.45: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals.
Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 1.20: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last five renewals whilst favourites come to this year’s gig on a seven timer.
Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.50: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.
Two and a half mile Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 2.25: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites. Six-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests.
Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, nine of which scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two successful favourites).
Three mile Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: The last nine winners carried a minimum burden of 11-2.
Bumper event scheduled for 4.05: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 17/2 or less. Four-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals.
General stats: Jockey Conor O’Farrell boasts stats of 9/30 to date, backed up by thirty two points of level stake profits. It’s also worth repeating that Paul Nicholls saddled six winners this day last year, five of which scored here at Wincanton when landing a 544/1 accumulator!
Two miles five handicap chase scheduled for 1.10: Six of the last seven winners carried weights of 11-4 or more.
Mares handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.45: Only one of the last eight favourites has obliged, whilst five of the last six winners were burdened with a maximum weight of just 10-10.
Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) scheduled for 2.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last ten winners.
Grade 2 novice chase scheduled for 2.50: Paul Nicholls (two runners entered up at the five day stage) has saddled four of the last six winners of this event. Paul might have snared the other two contests as well had his runners not ‘tipped up’ when going well in their respective event.
Listed handicap chase event schedule for 3.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last eleven winners of the ‘Badger Beer‘.
Bumper event scheduled for 4.00: Four and five-year-olds have secured ten of the last eleven renewals. Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last nine contests. Apologies for the repetitive nature of the Paul Nicholls domination of this meeting down the years!