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Well I Declare, 6th to 10th November 2012

Horse Racing Stats

Well I Declare: Racing Stats

Well I Declare, by Malcolm Boyle

Consistent winning trainers were hard to find during the corresponding week last year (Tuesday through Saturday) as the featured number plummeted compared to recent weeks.

Last week’s haul of twenty three winners still puts in a positive mood going into another week however, especially with two of the gold medallists scoring at 16/1 & 14/1.

Last year’s leading trainers during the corresponding period:

Flat:

4 winners--Ralph Beckett: (11/1-6/1-9/4**-15/8*)

4--Richard Hannon (13/2-9/2-10/3-2/1)

Other trainers to note:

Declan Carroll saddled two winners at (16/1 & 8/1)

James Given also bagged a pair at 10/1 & 8/1.

NH:

6--Paul Nicholls (8/1-11/4*-85/40-2/1-8/11*-8/13*)

3--Vic Dartnell (16/1-9/2-3/1***)

3--Alan King (7/2-15/8*-7/4*)

3--Oliver Sherwood (14/1-6/1-6/5*)

Others of particular interest:

2--Ann Hamilton: (11/1 & 9/2)

2--Emma Lavelle (14/1 & 12/1)

2--Ferdy Murphy (10/1 & 8/1)

2--David Pipe (10/1 & 13/2)

 

Doubles (or more) on the day:

Wednesday:

535/1 four timer for Richard Hannon

98/1 double for James Given

Thursday:

Oliver Sherwood secured a 14/1 double at Towcester

Friday:

George Prodromou landed a 35/1 double on the level.

Saturday:

The week’s major player was Paul Nicholls, who saddled six winners on the day which equated to a 881/1 accumulator!

 

Haldon Gold Cup--ten year study report for Tuesday’s renewal:

Record of trainers with declared runners:

Paul Nicholls (Edgardo Sol): Two winners (3/1 &6/5*)--five places--nine unplaced

Philip Hobbs (Menorah): Two winners (10/1 & 4/1*)--four unplaced

Colin Tizzard (Cue Card)--Just two unplaced runners to report.

The other two trainers have not been represented during the study period.

Favourite stats: 2 winners--3 placed--5 unplaced

First three in the betting record: 6 winners--6 placed--20 unplaced

Vintage figures (winners--places--unplaced):

5YO: 0-2-2

6YO: 2-2-7

7YO: 3-5-11

8YO: 1-2-17

9YO: 0-3-5

Older horses: 4-1-12

Doncaster’s November Handicap details for Saturday: 

John Gosden has trained two of the last three winners but with John not being represented this time around, the trainer which catches the eye with a runner is Sir Henry Cecil who would not normally be associated with the final big handicap of the season.

Sir Henry has Last Mohican entered up and this unbeaten three time soft/heavy ground winner is surely the horse to beat in this year’s line up.

The Tobougg gelding sits one spot higher (100) via official ratings than is ideally the case (relevant stats listed below) but what is ‘one spot’ between friends?

Draw details:

2011: 20-5-16-22 (23 ran-soft)

2010: 9-17-5-3 (22 ran-good to soft)

2009: 14-19-9-24 (23 ran-soft)

2008: 22-18-11-7 (21 ran-soft)

2007: 13-17-19-2 (21 ran-good to firm)

2006: Race was contested at Windsor

2005: 18-5-10-8 (21 ran-heavy)

2004: 3-6-1-4 (24 ran-soft)

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2003: 14-6-3-2 (24 ran-good)

2002: 20-22-24-17 (23 ran-heavy)

Official ratings: The last eight winners have run off marks ranging between 93 & 99.

Favourites during the study period: Just one favourite has finished in the frame (2008) via eleven representatives (no winners).

Vintage stats:

3YO: 4 winners & 6 places

4YO: 5 winners & 13 places

5YO: 1 winner & 5 places

Older horses: No winners--six places

Day by day details:  

TUESDAY: 

Exeter: 

General stats: Opposite scenarios here as Nicky Henderson leads the trainer ranks via a 33% strike rate, whereas Ruby Walsh is the call from the saddle with his 44% ratio.  If Nicky and Ruby ever team up at Exeter, we should be on a sure fire winner! 

Redcar: 

General stats: Rae Guest and Gay Kelleway both have four declarations on the card, going into today’s meeting with identical 3/11 strike rates. 

Southwell: 

General stats: Seven pound claimer has just the one booked ride at the time of writing, with the talented pilot aboard Gaelic Wizard in the 3.40 contest.  Josh boasts a phenomenal 35% strike rate here at South well (7/20), a ratio which is backed up by an LSP reading of fifty one points. 

WEDNESDAY: 

Chepstow:

General stats: For The Staff was the only mount for James Best on the card at the weekend, with the jockey boasting a strike rate of 38% (5/13) which has produced level stake profits of twenty eight points. 

Two mile Maiden hurdle scheduled for 1.00: Four-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date during which time, just one (8/11) favourite has obliged.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 1.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners in the last five years and the trainer held two options for the race at the weekend.  Five-year-olds have secured four of the six renewals to date during which time, two market leaders have obliged.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.00: We still await the first successful favourite following five renewals.

Class 4 handicap chase over the minimum trip scheduled for 2.30: Nine of the last ten contests have been secured by horses carrying a minimum weight of 11-1.

Favourites have won both renewals of the closing bumper event which is due to be contested at 4.15:

Kempton:

General stats: Neil Callan has slowly been moving up the ‘pecking order’ in the jockey sector at Kempton in recent times though that said, the term slow relating to Neil’s eighty eight winners during the last five years at the venue might sound a little harsh!  Backing up Neil’s 19% strike rate is a level stake profit of seventy four points. 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has three declarations at Nottingham on Wednesday with the trainer still reigning supreme via his 37% strike rate at the track.  Saeed boasts level profit stakes of fifteen points via twenty two winners to complete the full picture. 

12.10 & 12.40 (two divisions): Eighteen of the nineteen available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses aged five or less, stats which include all five winners. Four-year-olds have secured three of the five contests thus far.

1.10: Two of the last three favourites have won this Nursery event which in the context of two-year-old handicaps is a good return.

1.40 & 2.10 (two divisions): Eleven of the last twelve winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which given the context of the race, is a reasonable stat to offer.  That said, four renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded following a hat trick for market leaders from 2007 through 2009.

2.40: Three and four-year-olds have secured ten of the last nine renewals of this conditions event between them.  Junior raiders have secured five of the last seven contests.

Warwick: 

General stats: David Pipe boasts a 29% strike rate (12/42) whilst notching thirty eight points of level stake profits for good measure. Only Nicky Henderson’s 32% ratio outpoints David for Wednesday’s card. 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals of Warwick’s finale.

THURSDAY: 

Musselburgh: 

General stats: Bruce Mactaggart’s strike rate (4/6) is something to behold in Edinburgh, whilst Kate Walton’s 5/19 strike rate is none too shabby either! 

Lingfield:

General stats; Whilst always taking into account Saeed Bin Suroor’s great (48%) ratio here at Lingfield, new kids on the block Charlie Hills and Ed Walker have done well with their horses at the venue thus far. 

Towcester:

General stats: Jonjo O’Neill generally stands out from the crowd because not only does the trainer head the winners list in terms of numbers (twenty two in the last five years), but the popular Irishman also boasts a black figure LSP rating which having saddled 112 runners at the track in recent years, is a difficult double to achieve. 

Twenty one furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried eleven stones or more.

Two and three quarter mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.

Bumper event restricted to fillies scheduled for 4.20: Although just three favourites have won via eight renewals to date, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.  

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Frank Sheridan is due to start sending out some big priced winners again soon, as his eighty one points of level stake profits prove here at Wolverhampton during the last five years. 

FRIDAY: 

Fontwell:

General stats: Sophie Leech held one option for the meeting earlier in the week (Kings Queen in the three mile three furlong handicap hurdle) with the trainer boasting a strike rate of 21% which is backed up by fifteen points of level stake profits at the venue.  

Conditional jockey’s hurdle event scheduled for 1.10: All five winners have carried weights of 10-9 or less to date, three of which have represented the five-year-old vintage. Just one favourite has prevailed thus far.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event due to be contested at 2.10: Favourites have won three of the last four contests.

Class 4 twenty two furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: All five winners have carried a maximum burden of just 10-9.  The last two market leaders have obliged, the biggest priced winner thus far being returned at 13/2.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 4.10: Oliver Sherwood comes into the race on a hat trick with trainer holding just one entry earlier in the week, namely his Irish PTP winner Beforeall. 

Hexham:

General stats: Two jockeys stand out from the crowd at Hexham in recent times.  Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden four of his six mounts to victory, whilst John Winston’s 3/6 ratio would head most lists! 

Musselburgh:

General stats: Evan Williams is another trainer (see earlier Musselburgh comment) who boasts a great strike rate having saddled three of his five runners in Edinburgh to success during the last five years.  

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Ed Vaughan’s efforts at Wolverhampton are worth a mention given his 19% strike rate at Dunstall Park which is back up by a health profit of thirty eight points via fourteen winners in recent times. 

SATURDAY: 

Doncaster:

General stats: Dorcas Lane (scheduled to contest the 2.00 event) was David Lanigan’s only option on the card at the time of writing, David having saddled six of his fifteen runners to Town Moore to success. 

Six furlong Nursery due to be contested at 1.25: The last six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-4, whilst three favourite have won via seven renewals during the last decade.

Ten furlong Listed event scheduled for 2.00: Three and four-year-olds have won all nine renewals thus far (juniors lead 5-4).

November Handicap scheduled for 2.35: Whilst digesting the stats and facts in the opening sector of this week’s work, it’s as well to also consider that nine of the last eleven gold medallists carried 9-2 or less.

The four winners of the scheduled seven furlong handicap finale at 3.45 have scored at 33/1-16/1-12/1-8/1 carrying weights of 8-13 or less.

Kelso:

General stats: Lucinda Russell was featured in this column a few weeks ago before hitting a quiet period.  Lucinda was back with a bang at the weekend saddling four of her six runners to success, all of which won at tracks which were highlighted at the time.  Hexham is another of her favourite ‘hunting grounds’. 

Two and three quarter mile NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 12.25: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 6-3 via the ten renewals during the last decade.

Seventeen furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.50: Seven-year-olds have secured two gold and two silver medals in this event via just six representatives to date.

Sandown:

General stats: Neil King is ‘going places’ as a trainer as his 4/15 stats at Sandown confirm, winners which have produced an LSP figure of sixteen points. 

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 12.45: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 1.20: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last five renewals whilst favourites come to this year’s gig on a seven timer.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.50: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.

Two and a half mile Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 2.25: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  Six-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.00: The last ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, nine of which scored at odds of 9/1 or less (two successful favourites).

Three mile Class 3 handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: The last nine winners carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.05: The last eleven winners have scored at odds of 17/2 or less.  Four-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals.

Wincanton:

General stats: Jockey Conor O’Farrell boasts stats of 9/30 to date, backed up by thirty two points of level stake profits. It’s also worth repeating that Paul Nicholls saddled six winners this day last year, five of which scored here at Wincanton when landing a 544/1 accumulator! 

Two miles five handicap chase scheduled for 1.10: Six of the last seven winners carried weights of 11-4 or more.

Mares handicap hurdle scheduled for 1.45: Only one of the last eight favourites has obliged, whilst five of the last six winners were burdened with a maximum weight of just 10-10.

Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) scheduled for 2.15: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last ten winners.

Grade 2 novice chase scheduled for 2.50: Paul Nicholls (two runners entered up at the five day stage) has saddled four of the last six winners of this event.  Paul might have snared the other two contests as well had his runners not ‘tipped up’ when going well in their respective event.

Listed handicap chase event schedule for 3.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled five of the last eleven winners of the ‘Badger Beer‘.

Bumper event scheduled for 4.00: Four and five-year-olds have secured ten of the last eleven renewals.  Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last nine contests.  Apologies for the repetitive nature of the Paul Nicholls domination of this meeting down the years!

Well I Declare, 30th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 30/05/12

Well, I Declare! 30/05/12

Good Morning Everyone and welcome to your Wednesday edition of Mal Boyle's "Well, I Declare!" feature.

Today's update has all the stats for the races at Ayr, Beverley, Folkestone, Newton Abbot and Sedgefield: a busy old day! we've also repeated yesterday's advice regarding the draw bias at Epsom ahead of this weekend's Classics.

WEDNESDAY 30/05:

Ayr:

General stats: Only Peter Niven (3/13) can beat a twenty per cent strike rate of the represented trainers at Ayr at one of my least favourite racecourses in Britain.

 

Beverley:

General stats: William Haggas (5/16) and Brian Meehan (3/9) are two southern trainers to keep on the right side at the delightful Yorkshire venue.

6.35: Three-year-olds have claimed all thirteen gold medals to date whilst southern based stables have secured nine of the last eleven renewals.  Seven clear favourites and one joint market leader have scored via the last eleven renewals, whilst thirteen of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.

7.30: Kevin Ryan comes into the ‘Hilary Needler’ on a hat trick with his Hamilton winner Lasilia, whilst six of the last fourteen favourites have won, with ten market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions.

8.05: All nine winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more, whilst four clear favourites and two joint market leaders have scored to date. Eight of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame with Mark Johnston (Captivity) coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

8.35: Eleven of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less , whilst five favourites have won during the last fourteeen years. Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

9.05: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 to date.

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Folkestone:

General stats: It is an awfully long way for Rod Millman to send one runner to Folkestone from his Devon base, especially when the juvenile in question appears to have little chance of rewarding connections.  Why then has Gladiatrix been entered for the 7.45 event?
***Gladiatrix is now a non-runner!***

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Dual purpose trainer David Arbuthnot held two options on the card at the time of writing at a venue where the Surrey based trainer boasts a 40% strike rate. David’s four winners at Newton Abbot during the last five years have produced an LSP figure of nearly ten points.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Four of Martin Keighley’s last fifteen runners have won and the trainer held two options on the Sedgefield card where Martin boasts 3/7 stats in recent years.

 

THE EPSOM DRAW FACTOR:

The Oaks (Friday):

Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

The Derby (Saturday):

Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored.  Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1989. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Well I Declare, 29th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 29/05/12

Well, I Declare! 29/05/12

We've had lots of requests to break our weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature down into smaller daily updates, so your wish is our command, as they say!

From Tuesday to Saturday each week, we'll bring you a daily version and this week's bulletins will also contain some draw analysis of both The Oaks & The Derby for all you ante-post backers.

TUESDAY 29/05:

Chepstow:

General stats: We normally associate Tim Vaughan with NH racing but it’s worth noting that Tim has a 27% strike rate here at Chepstow on the level (matched by Mark Johnston) and his only runner today is Tae Kwon Do in the 4.00 event.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Frankie Dettori is becoming for ‘forgotten man’ of flat racing though it’s worth recalling his 39% strike rate here at Lingfield when considering his two mounts at the track today.

 

Ripon:

General stats: Star of Rohm is only Michael Bell’s second juvenile runner at Ripon in the last five years, his other two-year-old having scored at 5/4.

 

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Hexham:

General stats: Madamlily (8.15) is John Quinn’s only runner on the card, the trainer boasting a recent 39% strike rate (7/18) at Hexham.

 

Huntingdon:

General stats: This is one of the tracks where Henrietta Knight will be missed as the popular trainer saddled so many winners at Huntingdon, particularly in the ‘bumper’ sector.  Onwards and upwards however by revealing that Polly Gundry has won with both of her runners at the track whereby her only raider today at the course (Mix N Match) might be worth a saver in the 6.55 contest.  Otherwise it is very much a case of ‘as you were’ with Nicky Henderson dominating the winners list via a strike rate of 35% in recent times.

 

ANTE-POST DRAW ANALYSIS

The Oaks (Friday):

Only eleven of the ninety horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) during the last fourteen years.  Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent seasons.  Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs--most recent renewal offered first):

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)
15-4-2 (14 ran-good)
5-2-9 (10 ran-good)
13-10-11 (16 ran-good)
11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)
5-3-10 (10 ran-good)
2-4-9 (12 ran-good)
3-6 (7 ran-good)
7-11-9 (15 ran-good)
13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)
10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)
5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

The Derby (Saturday):

Aidan O’Brien has saddled two winners and eight placed horses during the last thirteen years and with five of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1, few of his runners in the Epsom Derby should ever be ignored.  Camelot looks like the being first odds on favourite to hopefully win the Epsom Derby since Shergar obliged back in 1981. Two beaten odds on chances have been recorded since Walter Swinburn struck gold, as both Entrepreneur (1997) and Tenby (1993) failed to deliver the goods. The last thirteen winners of The Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include four favourites of one sort or another.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-10-2 (12 ran-good)
3-14-10 (16 ran-good)
14-8-2 (17 ran-good)
10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-12-4 (13 ran-good)
6-11-3 (14 ran-good)
4-16-8 (20 ran-good)
9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)
10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
15-7-10 (15 ran-good)
1-5-17 (16 ran-good)
14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

 

 

Well I Declare, 22nd May 2012

Well, I Declare! 22/05/12

Well, I Declare! 22/05/12

Ahead of yet another busy week of racing, Mal Boyle's back with us with his insights on the week's forthcoming fixtures.

He's got all the pertinent stats and details of all the meetings, be they jumps, flat or all-weather: there's always an angle to pursue!

TUESDAY 22/05:

Brighton:
General stats: Neil Callan has six booked rides at Brighton where the jockey boasts a 23% strike rate during which time, Neil had produced an LSP figure of over twenty-one points. Lydia Pearce has saddled three of her seven runners to winning effect, whilst David Simcock is another trainer whose runners should be treated with plenty of respect.  

2.00: Four-year-olds have won the only two renewals (of three in total) in which the vintage was represented, whilst two of the three favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).

2.30: Three-year-olds had won this race since the old king died until a five-year-old reared its ugly head by upsetting the apple-cart twelve months ago, whilst four of the last eleven favourites have scored (including three of the last five market leaders), The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 6/1.

3.30: Four of the last six favourites have won this event whilst the other gold medallists were returned at 7/1 and 9/2.

4.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whilst three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame via six renewals to date (one winner--last year)

Nottingham:
General stats: Art News (5.15) is an outsider to consider given Gary Moore’s 3/6 ratio at Nottingham in recent years.  The Dansili gelding is Gary’s only runner at the track today where Saeed Bin Suroor usually rules the roost.

Towcester:
General stats: Folk Tune (6/15) is John Quinn’s only runner on the Towcester card, the trainer having saddled three of his five runners at the course to winning effect during the last five years.

Kempton:
General stats: James Fanshawe heads the list of represented trainers at Kempton today via a 21% strike rate which is backed up by an LSP figure of nearly thirty-eight points.  James’ Haafhd newcomer Wijaya (5.15) is the only stable representative on today’s card.


WEDNESDAY 23/05:

Chepstow:
General stats: Ralph Beckett’s last twenty runners have secured three gold and four silver medals between them and boasting a 27% strike rate here at Chepstow, Ralph’s two runners on the card are worth noting.

Sedgefield:
General stats: With an LSP figure in excess of fifty points to boast at Sedgefield, Lucy Alexander is building her reputation as a fine addition to the ranks of professional riders. Lucy has four booked rides on the card in the hope on improving her decent 7/26 strike rate at the venue.

Worcester:
General stats: Rachael Green is tearing up the rule book in the best possible way as she continues to ride with tremendous purpose and ambition.  Rachael has ridden nine winners here at Worcester via just sixteen opportunities (56% strike rate)! Rachael has produced an LSP figure of nearly eighty points in the process.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 5.50: All three favourites have prevailed to date.

Beginners’ Chase scheduled for 6.20: Market leaders have won three of the last six contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1.

Bumper event scheduled for 7.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals during which time, just two favourites have scored.  Four winners were returned at odds ranging between 12/1 and 20/1.

NH Novice hurdle contest due to be contested at 7.50: Five favourites have obliged during the last decade, whilst five-year-olds have secured three of the last six renewals.

Class 5 two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 8.20: The market leaders have obliged during the last decade whilst six-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals.

Lingfield:
General stats: Three of Roger Charlton’s last five runners had won at the time of writing and the trainer has a good record at a venue which on this occasion stages a mixed (Turf & A/W) meeting.

Southwell:
General stats: La Estrella (3.50) is Don Cantillon’s only runner all week at a track where the trainer boasts a 43% strike rate via a ratio of 12/28.


THURSDAY 24/05:

Goodwood:
General stats: Mahmood Al Zarooni boasts a ratio of 10/35 (29% strike rate), whilst producing seven points of level stake profits in the process.  The relevant blue colours should be noted during the three-day meeting which starts on Thursday.  

Six furlong juvenile event scheduled for 2.00: Richard Hannon has won seven of the last twelve renewals of this juvenile event, stats which include the last four gold medallists! Ten of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).  The last eight winners have scored at odds ranging between 4/9 and 7/1.

Nine furlong Class 4 handicap due to be contested at 2.35: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried 9-0 or less, whilst six of the last fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (two winners).

Ten furlong Listed event for fillies scheduled for 3.45: Three of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed whilst eight market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.

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Two mile handicap scheduled for 4.20: Nine of the last eleven gold medallists having carried 9-1 or less. Just three of the twelve favourites have made the frame during the study period (one winner).  Four of the last eight winners have scored at 25/1, 22/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

Haydock:
General stats: Another three-day meeting which starts ‘today’ and trainers to keep on the right side include Roger Varian (35% strike rate) William Haggas (33%), William Jarvis and Alistair Whillans who boast 30% figures apiece.  This quartet of handlers all held entries on Thursday at the time of writing.  

Salisbury:
General stats: The combined ratios of Richard Price stand close inspection at Salisbury, with Richard offering a strike rate of 31% (5/16) having produced an LSP figure of twenty-three points.  Richard Hannon saddled a 111/1 treble at last week’s Salisbury meeting via eight runners.  

Sandown:
General stats: Ryan Clark might only have eight winners to his name this season at the time of writing, though Ryan has ridden three of his six mounts here at Sandown to winning effect.  Sir Mark Prescott saddled a winner at Baden Baden on the quiet last week and this is the time of year when SMP moves into top gear.  Mark’s 36% strike rate at Sandown in recent years is worth a mention in dispatches.

Juvenile maiden for fillies over five furlongs scheduled for 6.00: Five favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium though only three of the other eight market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions. Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last nine winners, with the trainer holding four options at the time of writing.

One and three-quarter mile 3YO handicap scheduled for 6.30: All seven winners have carried 8-9 or more, whilst Mark Johnston was responsible for three of the twelve penultimate entry stage runners, having been the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this contest thus far. Six of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (one winner--last year).

One and a quarter-mile 3YO handicap scheduled for 7.35: Seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of nine stones or more during which time, winning favourites have been conspicuous only by their absence.

Class 5 handicap for fillies over nine furlongs scheduled for 8.40: Three-year-olds have won all six renewals of this toteplacepot finale, whilst five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Wetherby:
General stats: For all that we have emerging young jockeys on the threshold of decent careers, it defies belief that Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson continue to dominate the sport in terms of the sheer number of winners ridden.  ‘Dickie’ just holds the strike rate edge here at Wetherby having boasted a 46% figure in the last five years which sits two spots above Tony’s ratio.


FRIDAY 25/05:

Catterick:
General stats: Sir Mark Prescott heads Friday’s list of trainers (22% strike rate) whilst David C Griffiths is the ‘new kid on the block’ to note at Catterick as two of his six runners have scored at the venue thus far.

Goodwood:
General stats: Ahtoug (4.20) was Mahmood Al Zarooni’s only runner at Goodwood on Friday at the time of writing, with seven entries in total for the meeting at a track where the trainer’s current strike rate stands at 29% via a 10/29 ratio.  

Haydock:
General stats: Roger Varian (35%) and William Haggas (33%) head the list of trainer’s for the middle day of Haydock’s three day meeting.

Class 5 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.20: Six of the nine toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-2 or less (stats include two winners at 14/1 & 9/4), whilst the three favourites thus far have secured two gold and one bronze medal.

Juvenile event for fillies scheduled for 2.55: Three of the five favourites to date (via four renewals--two winners) have secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 4 one mile handicap scheduled for 4.05: The inaugural market leader duly obliged before both favourites finished down the field in the two divisions staged last year.

Mixed vintage maiden event scheduled for 4.40: Three-year-olds come to the gig on a five-timer which is par for the course in these mixed vintage events.  All five market leaders have prevailed thus far!

Musselburgh:
General stats: Colin Teague and Richard Guest lead the way via an aggregate LSP reading of over one hundred and eighty points, whilst Bryan Smart often saddled winners at the Edinburgh venue.  

Yarmouth:
General stats: Alan McCabe (3/13) and Ralph Beckett (2/6) don’t send too many horses to the east coast venue but both trainers were represented on Friday at the five-day stage.

Towcester:
General stats: Robert Thornton and Timmy Murphy rarely leave Towcester ‘empty handed’, whilst the strike rates of trainers John Quinn (60%) and David Arbuthnot (40%) are impressive to say the least.


SATURDAY 26/05:

Chester:
General stats: Three of the last eight runners saddled by William Haggas had won at the time of writing with two others additionally reaching the frame.  Willie boasts a 32% strike rate here on the Roodee via 8/25 figures.

Goodwood:
General stats: Robert Cowell completes the Goodwood ‘jigsaw’ this week having saddled two of his nine runners to winning effect at the beautiful venue thus far. Robert held two just entries this week at the venue.

Listed ‘Festival Stakes’ scheduled for 2.45: Three favourites have scored via nine renewals during the last decade.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests.

Mile and a half Class 2 handicap due to be contested at 3.20: Four-year-olds have won the last three (of four) renewals, vintage representatives having secured a 1-2-3 on each occasion! We still await the first successful favourite.

Class 4 juvenile maiden event over six furlongs scheduled for 3.55: Richard Hannon has secured the last four contests, with the trainer responsible for 4/22 entries at the five-day stage. The biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1 via nine renewals during the last decade.

Twelve furlong Listed event scheduled for 4.25: Two favourites have obliged via five renewals, the last two of which were secured by Saeed Bin Suroor who held three options for this year’s event at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.00: Just one of the three market leaders has finished in the frame thus far (no winners).

Seven furlong finale for fillies scheduled for 5.35: The last three winners have scored at 33/1-16/1-12/1.  Just two winning favourites have been recorded via the last nine renewals, with a 100/1 chance prevailing back in 2004 when representing none other than Richard Hannon who has saddled seventy-five winners at Goodwood during the last five years.  In terms of turf tracks, Richard has only saddled more winners (eighty) at Windsor than he has achieved at the West Sussex venue.

Haydock:
General stats: David Elsworth is another trainer (refer back to Thursday/Friday general stats) to add into the mix via his 28% strike rate at Haydock.

Class 3YO handicap scheduled for 2.00: Eight of the nine toteplacepot positions to date were secured by horses carrying weights of 8-11 of more, stats which includes all three (7/1-9/2-2/1) winners.

One mile ‘Silver Bowl’ event: Four favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium with the last 11 winners having scored at 15/2 or less, which is a remarkable stat given the competitive nature of this contest.

Group 2 Temple Stakes over five favourites scheduled for 3.00: Four of the last ten renewals have been secured by favourites.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.30: All four winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more, whilst all three market leaders had obliged before last year‘s favourite secured the silver medal.

Class 3 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.40: Last year’s successful 7/4 favourite was the first market leader to oblige at the sixth attempt.

Class 4 one mile handicap scheduled for 5.15: Two favourites have obliged during the last decade during which time, four-year-olds lead with five-year-olds 4-3. These two vintages have secured the last available nine win and place positions as well as eighteen of the twenty-nine opportunities during the decade.

Newbury:
General stats: I rarely home in on amateur riders but Sarah Brotherton’s 4/12 ratio at Newbury demands attention.  Roger Charlton’s LSP reading of eighty-eight points at Newbury during the last five years raises an eyebrow or three.  

York:
General stats: John Hills (3/9), Sylvester Kirk (3/10) and Marcus Tregoning (3/11) do not raid the Knavesmire consistently, though all three trainers were potentially represented at York on Saturday.

Lingfield:
General stats: Alan Jarvis (3/9) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (4/12) both boast 33% strike rates at another mixed (Turf & A/W) meeting at Linfgfield this week.

 

For the latest Irish race trends, click here.

Well I Declare, 15th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 15/05/12

Well, I Declare! 15/05/12

It's that time of year now, where the big meetings come thick and fast and there's often little time to take stock of what has just happened and then prepare yourself for the next assault on the bookmakers. Thankfully, we have the ability to call on the services of Mal Boyle and his regular weekly racing preview. Mal has gone through the upcoming race fixtures and highlighted some angles you may not have thought of. Here's Mal's view on the coming week:

"The weather rather spoiled last week’s Chester meeting but with York’s Dante week following on quickly behind, those wet days are soon put behind us. 

Looking at last year’s results at the Dante meeting, seven successful favourites were recorded via twenty-one events, with two of the three market leaders prevailing in the juvenile events. 

Mick Channon saddled two of the three two-year-old winners (both returned at 7/2), with Richard Fahey having secured the other contest via a 6/5 favourite.

Richard was one of just two trainers who saddled three winners at the meeting (his other two gold medallists were returned at 9/1 and 11/2), Mick Easterby being the other with 16/1-10/1-7/1 scorers.

Afore mentioned trainers Mick Channon and John Gosden both saddled two winners.

Sir Henry Cecil and Richard Fahey were both responsible for two beaten favourites during the three-day meeting.  

Last year’s toteplacepot dividends:

Wednesday: £2,923.40 (average first day dividend via the last ten years: £655.79)

Thursday: £20.40 (average second day dividend via the last ten years: £142.53)

Friday: £176.30 (average third day dividend via the last ten years: £403.22)

Have a great week,

Mal."

 

TUESDAY 15/05:

Beverley:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute has won with five of his eleven three-year-old raiders at Beverley in recent times, with Courage having been declared to contest the 4.30 event on the card.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best (strike rate of 32%) and Charlie Longsdon (24%) head the list at Hereford today, with Charlie’s LSP figure of one hundred and eleven dwarfing Jim’s perfectly respectable six points of level stake profits!

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Steve Dixon has crept in under the radar by training three of his eleven runners at Wincanton to winning effect, especially taking into account his thirty-eight points of profit thus far.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Luke Morris joined the ton up club at Kempton the other day with Luke five behind Jim Crowley (105 winners during then last five years) going into today’s meeting.

 

Southwell (NH):

General stats: Three of Nicky Henderson’s last eight runners have won and his 31% strike rate at Southwell suggests further success sooner rather than later for the Seven Barrows yard.

 

WEDNESDAY 16/05:

Bath:

General stats: With three gold and three silver medallists saddled via his last eight runners, Denis Coakley has entered two runners on the card whilst boasting a strike rate of 22% at Bath in recent years.  The eight relevant winners have produced sixty-six points of level stake profits for good measure!

 

York:

General stats: The Cheka is due to represent Eve Johnson Houghton (Eve’s only runner on the card) with the trainer having saddled two of her five runners on the Knavesmire in recent years to winning effect.

1.30: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a six-timer with relevant horses having secured twelve of the last sixteen available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the last eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).

'Draw factor' (ten and a half furlongs):

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)
12-4-5 (11 ran-good)
5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)
5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)
11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)
7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)
10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)
2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)
5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)
2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

2.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals confirming their recent dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result last year via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Eleven of the twenty favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the toteplacepot finale, though just two favourites prevailed during the study period.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)
11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)
15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)
12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)
13-7-12 (13 ran-good)
7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)
1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)
12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)
6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)
12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)
2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

2.30: Aidan O’Brien’s last three runners in the ‘Musidora’ have finished out of the frame since a 8/15 representative (Alexandrova) could only secure the silver medal behind Short Skirt back in 2006.  Seven of the 14 favourites have reached the frame (five winners) during the study period

3.00: Four and five-year-olds have claimed ten of the last thirteen renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 7-3 during the period.  Four favourites have won this event during the last 14 years, though just three of the other 11 market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)
1-11-6 (12 ran-good)
3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)
6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-1-13 (17 ran-good)
2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)
9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)
5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)
8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)
8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)
3-5-4 (10 ran-good)
3.35:  Four and five-year-olds have claimed eleven of the last fourteen renewals and yours truly offered last year’s 28/1 winner Line Of Duty via three options for the contest.  Six of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years (two winners).

4.10: Three of the seven favourites to date missed out on toteplacepot positions (two winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (three years ago).  The other six winners were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

‘Draw factor' five furlongs):

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)
5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)
2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)
7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)
2-1 (6 ran-soft)

4.45: Richard Fahey has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medals via just four renewals to date.  Favourites have won three contests (LSP of nearly eight points) whilst the other (2/1) market leader finished fourth of nine three years ago.

‘Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

8-10-4 (14 ran-good)
3-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-3-2 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-5-2 (10 ran-good)

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Although Paul Nicholls and Anthony Honeyball head the (33%) leading trainers at Fontwell, Oliver Sherwood’s LSP figure of seventy two points is worth noting (26% strike rate).

 

Perth:

General stats: Alan Swinbank will be raiding York this week where he saddled a 28/1 winner last year.  His three intended runners here make for interesting reading however, as the trainer has saddled two of his last four runners at Perth to winning effect. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: David C Griffiths is a trainer on the way up and his 6/22 stats here at Lingfield are worth noting alongside his LSP figure of eleven points.

 

THURSDAY 17/05:

Folkestone:

Your first 30 days for just £1

General stats: This Hunter Chase meeting invariably produces winners for leading stables in this sector of the sport.  Alan Hill (4/6), John Turner (3/7) and Peter York (4/11) look sure to saddle winners between them on Thursday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Considering the competitive nature of the sport on the heath, Silvestre De Sousa’s 30% strike rate at Newmarket stands out from the crowd. On the training front, Robert Eddery has saddled two of his five runners to winning effect, whilst Mahmood Al Zarooni’s LSP figure of seventy-seven points is backed up by a 26% Strike rate.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Although his strike rate and LSP figures are disappointing, Richard Hannon has saddled forty-two more winners (66/24--last five years) than his nearest rival at Salisbury relating to Thursday’s represented trainers.  The yard struck form at Windsor on Monday and plenty of gold medallists will emerge at Salisbury this season.

 

York:

General stats: Ryan Moore boasts a 23% strike rate at York during the last five years, with the ex-champion also producing twenty-three level stake profits in the process. 

Class 2 five furlong handicap event scheduled for 1.30: The four winners have scored at 33/1--16/1--11/1--10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 14/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 89-95-89-96. Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.
'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)
4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-1-12 (15 ran-good)
1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

Middleton Stakes scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won eleven of the last fourteen renewals of this contest, five-year-olds having prevailed on the other three occasions.  Ten of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period (six winners).

Dante Stakes scheduled for 2.30: Three of the last eight winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby, whilst five of the last fourteen market leaders have obliged.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.  Aidan O’Brien has saddled three of the last six winners.  Two of those three winners went on to contest the ‘Blue Riband’ at Epsom, finishing tenth and twelfth in the process.

Listed Handicap event scheduled for 3.00: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals, whilst thirteen of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners).

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)
4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-5-8 (15 ran-good)
3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)
8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)
12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)
11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)
10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)
7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)
6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

 

Class 2 3YO conditions event scheduled for 3.35: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have finished in the money to date (one winner).

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)
3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

Class 3 juvenile event scheduled for 4.10: Twelve of the last thirteen winners have been returned at odds of 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have obliged.  Nine of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)
6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
3-1-4 (10 ran-good)
6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
4-1 (7 ran-soft)
6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)
6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6 (10-good to firm)
2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)
1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)
9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)
7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

Perth:

General stats: Leading trainers rule the roost at Perth pure and simple, with Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Gordon Elliott all homing in on Nigel Twiston-Davies who has ruled this particular ‘outpost’ down the years.  Jim Goldie’s runners also demand respect.

 

Ludlow:

General stats: Keith Goldworthy’s LSP figure of ninety-three points continues to catch the eye at Ludlow though logically, every Nicky Henderson declaration is worthy of plenty of respect.

***Keith only had two runners at Ludlow this Thursday and one won at 66/1 with betfair paying a massive 86.36!***

 

FRIDAY 18/05:

Hamilton:

General stats: David Simcock (3/9) and Jeremy Noseda (2/5) have muscled in on Sir Mark Prescott’s act of late, though Mark’s 48% record (11/23) suggests that he is the man to beat when represented at Hamilton.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Lady of Burgundy (potential runner in the 4.55 event) is the horse to home in on relating to Friday’s Newbury card for plenty of reasons.  Underrated pilot Racheal Kneller has booted home two of her last four mounts to winning effect at the time of writing whilst her Newbury record of 2/3 catches the eye.  Lady Of Burgundy is trained by Mark Usher who had saddled three winners via his last ten runners when this column was compiled.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: Regular readers will know that Newcastle is one of my least favourite tracks, particularly in races on the straight course where jockeys seem to ride each race differently regarding their stall positions.  Any track which witnesses races where horses are split into groups greatly favour layers rather than players pure and simple.  John Gosden’s 25% strike rate catches the eye.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Mickael Barzalona has produced an LSP figure of nineteen points via a 23% strike rate (six winners) during his brief career in Britain thus far.

 

York:

General stats: John Dunlop has long since raided the Knavesmire to good effect and his current 31% strike rate holds up well.  John’s ten recent winners have produced fifty-three points of level stake profits at the track.

Listed (Class 1) juvenile event for fillies scheduled for 1.30: Four of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have obliged to date whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at 7/1.  Five of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)
9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)
9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-6-1 (10 ran-good)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

Class 2 handicap over twelve furlongs scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won the last five renewals, whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won six of the last eight contests.  Seven of the fifteen market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes three winning favourites.

Yorkshire Cup due to be contested at 2.30: Eight of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame, whilst five market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

Listed one mile event for fillies due to be contested at 3.00: Eleven of the thirteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions (via six renewals) have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, with five of the seven favourites finishing in the frame (two winners).

'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)
7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good)
5-4 (6 ran-soft)

Five furlong Class 4 handicap scheduled for 3.35: Twelve of the sixteen horses to have gained toteplacepot positions via four renewals to date have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst trainer Mick Easterby comes to the gig on a hat trick having saddled 16/1 and 5/2 winners of late.  Mick only held one entry earlier in the week whereby Towbee obviously carries plenty of stable confidence. Only one of the five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position to date (no winners).

'Draw factor (five furlongs)':

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)
2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)
12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

Ten furlong Class 3 handicap due to be contested at 4.10: Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the toteplacepot finale, with two favourites having obliged during the last decade.  Seven of the fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  It’s worth noting that Saeed Bin Suroor has not been represented in the race since securing a hat trick in the contest back in 2009, with Yasir being his only potential runner in the race this time around.  Whether or not the four-year-old gets into the handicap (current standing: 29/55), Yasir is one to consider for future events from my viewpoint.

Twelve furlong 3YO closing event scheduled for 4.45: Favourites have won four of the last nine contests, the biggest priced winner during the period having been returned at just 9/1 which is a reasonable record in a competitive event.  Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.

 

Aintree:

General stats: Jimmy McCarthy is booked to ride E Major in the 8.15 contest and with Jimmy having ridden three winners at Aintree via just eight assignments (LSP figure of forty points in the process), Renee Robeson’s representative is worth keeping on the right side.

 

SATURDAY 19/05:

Doncaster:

General stats: Runners from the yards of Roger Varian (6/14) and David Lanigan (5/12) deserve plenty of respect on Town Moor these days.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Roger Varian (fifty-six points of level stake profits) has carried on where Michael Jarvis left off and alongside Mahmood Al Zarooni and Roger Charlton (to name but two other top trainers who boast decent profits at Newbury), Varian’s runners should never be ignored.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden event due to be contested at 1.30: Henry Cecil has won two of the last four renewals of this event and though the maestro held four entries at the time of writing, Tom Queally was already booked aboard All That Rules. Twelve of the last fourteen winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less (three winning favourites). This race looked likely to be split into two divisions (as was the case last year) at the time of writing (fifty-six entries).

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)
1-10-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
2-7-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
9-11-15 (14 ran-soft)
11-4-9 (14 ran-good
4-5-9 (15 ran-good)
4-8-9 (15 ran-good to soft)
8-6-9 (11 ran-good)
9-10-6 (10 ran-good)
6-11-3 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-5-17 (17 ran-good)
9-13-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)
15-8-5 (15 ran-soft)
15-7-5 (20 ran-good to firm)
4-14-7 (14 ran-soft)

Listed ‘Aston Park’ event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fourteen renewals of this staying event, whilst ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame (three winners), with all fourteen winners having scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Class 2 six furlong handicap scheduled for 2.30: Four-year-olds had won all four renewals until last year when a six-year-old upset the apple-cart. Fifteen of the seventeen win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-3 or less, whilst four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame to date (one winner).  Last year’s result was dominated by horses drawn on the high side: 16-13-17-10 (18 ran-good to firm).

Class 2 ‘London Gold Cup’ scheduled for 3.05:  Two clear favourites (along side a co favourite of three) have prevailed during the study period, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)
11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)
5-9-12 (12 ran-good)
6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)
6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)
8-1-3 (10 ran-good)
5-9-13 (13 ran-good)
6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
3 (3 ran-soft)
8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)
3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

Lockinge Stakes due to be contested at 3.40: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whereby ante post punters who have backed Frankel appear to have precious little to worry about.  The last thirteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (seven winning favourites), whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Class 4 handicap for fillies over seven furlongs scheduled for 4.50: Four of the last five winners have scored at 28/1-25/1-20/1-16/1 whilst just one favourite has obliged via eight renewals.  Seven of the eight winners carried weights of 9-1 or less.

Class 4 3YO maiden scheduled for 5.20: Ralph Beckett has saddled three of the last four winners of this event (100/1-7/1-6/1) with Ralph coming to this year’s gig on a hat trick.  Riot Of Colour was Ralph’s only entry earlier in the week.  Seven renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: With an aggregate of seventy-five winners during the last five years, Richard Hannon and John Gosden rule the roost at Newmarket regarding potentially represented yards at Newmarket on Saturday, the two trainers boasting an aggregate LSP figure of one hundred and four points into the bargain.

 

Thirsk

General stats: Andrew Balding is saddling plenty of winners at present though the trainer is a rare visitor to Thirsk these days. That said, Andrew held two entries at the time of writing and given his 40% strike rate at the course, both horses should be kept on the right side if offered the green light to race.

 

Bangor: 

General stats: Younger trainers have produced plenty of winners at Bangor in recent years, with the likes of Rebecca Curtis (27% strike rate), Charlie Longsdon (25%) and Martin Todhunter (25%) all gaining their share of glory.  All three trainers produce positive LSP figures which add up to sixty-two points at this moment in time.

 

Uttoxeter: 

General stats: Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Snowdon both boast a 27% strike rate at Uttoxeter, offering respective LSP figures of nineteen and twenty-three for good measure.

 

For the latest Irish race trends, click here.

 

Well I Declare, 8th May 2012

Well, I Declare! 8th-12th May

Well, I Declare! 8th-12th May

Hi again and welcome to this latest edition of Well, I Declare: your weekly racing preview.

This week’s work is dominated by the big Chester meeting.  I appreciate that this is not the ideal venue for some of you but that said, the draw offers a genuine chance for investors to have an edge over the layers which makes for a refreshing change.  Anyone who doubts that scenario should take a look at the draw statistics for the Chester Cup (2.35 Wednesday) which is contested over eighteen furlongs!

TUESDAY 08/05:

Catterick:

General stats: Silvestre De Sousa had five booked rides at the meeting at the time of writing, the pilot boasting a 22% strike rate at Catterick thus far, statistics which have produced an astonishing level stake profit of one hundred and eighteen points.

6.10: Six of the eight favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three of the last five winners.   The last seven winners (of eight in total) have been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

6.40: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer, whilst four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (two winners).  Six of the seven winners have been sent off at 9/1 or less.

7.10: All six winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst the biggest priced winner to date was sent off at 8/1.  Three of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, one successful market leader having been recorded thus far.

7.40: Five renewals have slipped by since a favourite won this event during which time, just one of the six market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position.  All seven winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more thus far.

8.10: Although three and four-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, younger representatives have secured eight of the twelve available toteplacepot positions.

Although we still await the first successful market leader following four renewals, all four favourites have finished in the frame, the last three of which claimed silver medals.

8.40:  Four-year-olds have secured three of the six winners whilst claiming seven of the seventeen available toteplacepot positions. Three of the seven market leaders have claimed win and place positions via six renewals, statistics which include two successful favourites.

 

Exeter:

General stats: Vic Dartnell stands out from the crowd if you add his LSP figure of twenty-nine points to his strike rate of 23%.

 

Fakenham:

General stats: General stats: Alongside the positive Paul Nicholls stats featured below, Steve Gollings (5/16) and Alex Hales (6/20) are other trainers to keep on the right side.

2.30: The last four market leaders have secured three gold and one silver medal, whilst the 9/4 second favourite scoring on the other occasion.  Jim Best saddled the winner of this race back in 2008 and the same pilot takes the ride aboard the stable representative Goodwood Starlight this time around, namely Tony McCoy.

3.00: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

3.30: The positive Paul Nicholls stats of 5/16 at Fakenham during the last five years are slightly misleading as the trainer stands at 0/5 with his hurdlers during the period.

4.00: This is where Paul Nicholls comes into his own at Fakenham as five of Paul's eleven chasers have won in recent times and Deireadh Re has three rivals to beat on behalf of the stable this time around.

4.30: The local Turner yard has secured seven of the last ten renewals of the Hunter Chase event, the yard being represented by last year's winner Assassino on this occasion.

5.00: The last five winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include two successful favourites.  The three beaten favourites during the period all secured silver medals.  Jim Best saddles two runners on the card with Tony McCoy book aboard both runners, with six-year-old Bollin Judith representing the stable in the finale.

 

Southwell:

General stats: The only booked ride for Josh Baudains is course and distance winner Beachwood Bay, the pilot having won on seven of his seventeen mounts at the venue.  On the training front, Saeed Bin Suroor is at the head of the stats list in terms of the represented yards on Tuesday.

2.15: Pearl Noir represents Scott Dixon who has won with the only two juveniles he has saddled during this short career thus far.

 

WEDNESDAY 09/05:

Chester:

General stats: Aidan O’Brien (40% strike rate) edges out Ed McMahon (32%) regarding the represented yards on the opening day of the big meeting. 

1.35: Eleven of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the last fourteen years.  Twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less. Five of the last nine winners have emerged from traps one or two.

2.05: ’Team Hills’ has fittingly (Robert Sangster’s name was added to the title five years ago) won this Cheshire Oaks three times in the last fourteen years and Charlie saddles his Marju filly Safarjal on this occasion. Thirteen of the seventeen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

2.35: This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril. Low numbers invariably rule the roost as four of the last five results (see below) confirm.  The most recent result is listed first as in all cases with draw details this week.

‘Draw factor' (eighteen and a half furlongs):

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)
5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)
4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)
13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)
4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)
2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)
13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)
9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

3.05: Only on three occasions during the last fourteen years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a toteplacepot position in this event. The haul of just two gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the toteplacepot stat is impressive given that an average of thirteen horses have contested the race during the period.  Fifteen of the seventeen favourites have been beaten since 1997, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame during the period.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-7-5 (13 ran--good)
4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-2-8 (14 ran--good)
6-7-4 (13 ran-good)
2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (12 ran-good)
6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)
3.40: John Gosden has saddled four of the last nine winners and Shantaram might improve the ratio on behalf of the yard, despite an unfortunate stall position of 13/14.  Ten of the last twelve winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won six of the last seven races, whilst twelve of the last fifteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2-8 (7 ran--good)
10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)
2-4-5 (9 ran--good)
4-10-1 (11 ran-good)
7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)
3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
6 (4 ran-good to firm)
7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-1 (5 ran-good)
2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

Ffos Las:

General stats: Nicky Henderson’s 38% strike rate beats Tony McCoy’s 30% return since Ffos Las opened its doors to the public back in 2009.

 

Stratford:

General stats: Paul Nicholls leads Charlie Longsdon 29% to 23% of the represented trainers at Southwell on Wednesday, both trainers producing small level stake profits in the process. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: Few stats stand out from the crowd relating to all-weather meetings at Kempton which is best summed up by the fact that the three top riders with booked rides ‘boast’ an aggregate strike rate of 14.3%.  That said, Jim Crowley (104) Adam Kirby (98) and Richard Hughes (93) have ridden a total of 295 winners between them at the Sunbury circuit during the last five years!

 

Southwell:

General stats: Daniel Mark Loughnane has saddled four of his nine runners at Southwell to winning effect.  Even John Gosden (37% strike rate via stats of 11/30) cannot beat those figures.

 

THURSDAY 10/05:

Chester:

General stats: It’s worth noting that Martin Harley has won on two of just three riders on the Roodee thus far.  Aidan O’Brien’s 40% ratio is worth repeating, whilst Marco Botti has won with two of the seven runners he has saddled at the venue.

Class 2 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 1.35: Five-year-olds (carrying weights of 8-11 or less) have won four of the last six renewals of this event whilst five of the seven favourites have reached the frame (one winner).

‘Huxley Stakes’ due to be contested at 2.05: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests (vintage representatives come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion) whilst twelve of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (nine winners).  Nine of the last thirteen gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

‘Chester Vase’ scheduled for 2.35: Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last five renewals whilst eight of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (three winners).

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Class 2 seven and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 3.05: Seven of the last ten winners carried weights of 8-11 or less whilst ten of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years (five winners).

'Draw factor' (seven and a half furlongs):

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)
3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)
6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-10-2 (9 ran-good)
6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)
2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)
2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)
12-6-5 (15 ran-good)
15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)
5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Juvenile five furlong maiden event due to be contested at 3.40: Thirteen of the sixteen favourites during the last thirteen years have finished in the frame (eight winners).

‘Draw factor' (five furlongs):

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)
3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)
5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)
2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)
4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)
5-6 (7 ran-soft)
3-5 (7 ran-soft)
5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)
5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
1-7-6 (8 ran-good)
3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

Class 3 six furlong handicap scheduled for 4.15: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less whilst seven of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners).  Mick Channon is the only trainer to have won this race twice during the last decade and the trainer held two options earlier in the week.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)
6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)
1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)
2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)
6-8-1 (10 ran-good)
9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)
12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)
1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)
6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)
9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)
1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

 

Class 3 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.45: Doctor Marwan Koukash is an owner who just loves greeting winners at Chester and the famous grey and orange colours were represented by six potential runners at the five-day stage.  Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst five contests have slipped by since a winner favourite was recorded.  The winners during this recent period were returned at 50/1-25/1-25./1-12/1-13/2.

 

Goodwood:

General stats: Mahommod Al Zarooni boasts a 29% strike rate at Goodwood, producing seven points of level stake profits to date.

 

Yarmouth:

General stats: Ezdeyaad is Ed Walker’s only potential runner on the card, the trainer having saddled three of his four runners at Yarmouth to winning effect. 

 

Kelso:

General stats: Nicky Richards continues to produce decent figures year in and year out and his 22 winners in recent years at Kelso (20% strike rate) have kept loyal investors happy. 

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Richard Johnson will be hoping that ‘AP’ does not ride at Newton Abbot as seems likely at the time of writing.  It must be nice when ‘Dicky’ walks into a changing room without the champion being in situ!  Richard has ridden thirty-four winners via a 20% strike rate at the venue during the last five years.

 

Wincanton:

General stats: Local trainer Paul Nicholls continues to rule the roost though this is just another venue where Rebecca Curtis is making inroads as a trainer.  Her 25% strike rate serves as a reminder to all punters that Rebecca is here to stay.

 

FRIDAY 11/05:

Chester:

General stats: Michael Bell’s runners are gaining vengeance following last year’s quiet season and Michael’s 25% strike rate at this venue can be improved upon during the course of the campaign.  Don’t forget those positive Aidan O’Brien and Ed McMahon stats mentioned earlier in the column.

Class 2 seven and a half furlong handicap scheduled for 1.35:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last four years), whilst seven of the last nine winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more.  Four favourites have scored during the last 14 years.

'Draw factor' (seven and a half furlongs):

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)
7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)
6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)
6-4-1 (11 ran-good)
5-6-3 (12 ran-good)
10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)
1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)
4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)
2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)
3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)
7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)
Group 3 Dee Stakes scheduled for 2.05: Four market leaders have obliged during the study period.  Seven recent market leaders have reached the frame. Nine of the ten winners during the last decade were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Group 3 ‘Ormonde Stakes’ scheduled for 2.35: Six market leaders have rewarded investors during the last fourteen years.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners of this event have been returned at 7/2 or less.

3YO handicap event scheduled for 3.05: Eight of the last ten winners have carried weights of 8-13 or more. Four favourites have won of late, whilst eleven of the last fourteen winners scored at 8/1 or less.  Eight of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):

5-3-2 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-3 (6 ran-good to soft)
1-7-2 (10 ran--good to firm)
7-3-9 (8 ran-good)
3-6-1 (8 ran-good)
1-5-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-6-2 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-8-14 (15 ran-soft)
8-1-6 (15 ran-good)
11-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-7-4 (14 ran-good to firm)
4-1-5 (12 ran-good)
5-2-3 (12 ran-good to firm)
5-7-2 (13 ran-good)

 

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.40: Four-year-olds have secured five of the six toteplacepot positions thus far, , statistics which include one 10/1 winner. Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

11-4-13 (14 ran-good to firm)
2-14-1 (12 ran-good to soft)

Maiden for fillies over seven furlongs due to be contested at 4.15: Barry Hills had saddled four of the last twelve winners and son Charlie has declared two horses at the penultimate entry stage. Eight of the last eleven favourites have won this event.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

4-1-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
3-9-8 (9 ran-good to soft)
12-4-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
10-3-4 (10 ran-good)
4-5-13 (13 ran-good)
3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)
5-2-7 (10 ran-good to soft)
7-2 (6 ran-good to soft)
6-1-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-7-10 (10 ran-good to firm)
1-3 (7 ran-good)
2-1-9 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-1-6 (8 ran-good)

 

Class 4 mile and a half handicap scheduled for 4.45: Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals of the closing event at Chester’s May prestigious meeting.

 

Ascot:

General stats: James Fanshawe’s 22% strike rate stands out from the crowd, especially when noting his LSP figure of nearly thirty-two points.

 

Hamilton:

General stats: Kevin Ryan boasts the best ‘combined stats’ of the potentially represented trainers at Hamilton on Friday.  Kevin’s strike rate of 23% is backed up by an LSP figure of forty-seven points.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled just four winners this season via thirty runners, though his 38% strike rate here at Nottingham is worth close inspection.  For the record, Saeed held eight options for the two-day meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Sir Henry Cecil still reigns supreme at the odd track here and there and with the trainer boasting recent stats of 5/16 at Ripon, watch out for anything that Henry saddles at the racecourse this summer.  Henry held two options for this meeting earlier in the week.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Tom Siddall rides this track well as his 22% strike rate confirms.  Tom’s LSP figure of ninety-eight points might make you choke of your cornflakes!

 

Lingfield:

General stats: This is scheduled to be a mixed turf/all-weather meeting but with heavy ground in evidence at Lingfield at the time of writing, don’t be surprised if the races are dominated by the artificial surface.

 

SATURDAY 12/05:

Ascot:

General stats: Frankie Dettori took the world by storm when riding his ‘Magnificent Seven’ at Ascot all those years ago.  Now however, Frankie’s 10% strike rate during the last five years at the royal venue (level stake losses of over forty-five points) makes for depressing reading. Can you guess the year of Frankie’s finest hour? Try not to wince when you recall it was back in 1996!  

Listed ‘John Doyle’ stakes scheduled for 2.20: Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (all winners of their respective events).

Class 2 handicap for fillies over one mile scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five contests having secured five of the last six available toteplacepot positions.  For good measure, vintage representatives swept the board twelve months ago, securing a £3000 Tricast dividend into the bargain!

‘Victoria Cup’ due to be contested at 3.25: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 6-3 during the last decade having won three of the last four renewals. Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, statistics which include the last seven gold medallists.

Class 4 six furlong handicap scheduled for 5.10: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, having secured eight of the last ten available toteplacepot positions.

 

Haydock (mixed meeting):

General stats: This mixed meeting has produced an average toteplacepot dividend of £360.13 over the last ten years.  Last year’s dividend of £1,375.30 was the best return during the decade.

Grade 3 (Class 1) renewal of the ‘Swinton Hurdle’ scheduled for 3.40: Nicky Henderson comes into the race on a hat trick, whilst two favourites have won during the last decade.  Five-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, though six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals.  Eight of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled just four winners this season via thirty runners, though his 38% strike rate here at Nottingham is worth close inspection.  For the record, Saeed held eight options for the two-day meeting earlier in the week. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: John Gosden took time out in a busy week to declare three potential runners at the meeting at the five-day stage having saddled three of his eight runners at the track in recent times to winning effect.  Saeed Bin Suroor usually gets his operation into full swing around this time of year and his 31% strike rate at this venue is worth noting.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Simple Rhythm was John Ryan’s only option on the card at the time of writing, the trainer boasting stats of 2/3 at the venue in recent years.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s 5/16 ratio also attracts the eye.

 

Hexham:

General stats: With few trainers recording a 20% strike rate at Hexham these days, it’s worth noting that Karen McLintock has saddled three of her nine runners at the venue to winning effect.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: This is scheduled to be a turf meeting but with heavy ground in evidence at Lingfield at the time of writing, don’t be surprised if the races are switched to the all-weather surface. It would be disappointing to witness the Oaks and Derby trials contested away from turf.

For the latest Irish race trends, click here.

Well I Declare, 24th April 2012

Well, I Declare! 24/4/12

Well, I Declare! 24/4/12

There's another very busy week ahead of us and picking a winner can often be like treading through a minefield. Thankfully, we have an expert to guide us in the form of Malcolm Boyle, who has kindly gone through all the upcoming racecards to point us in the right direction.

TUESDAY 24/04:

Towcester:

General stats:  Robert Thornton boasts an LSP figure of seven points via an impressive 28% strike rate at Towcester.  In the training ranks, Alan King and Nicky Henderson rule the roost, though ‘new kids on the block’ James Turner and Nick Kent are worth keeping on the right side. 

This is a new meeting at Towcester whereby no trends are in place.

 

Southwell:

General stats:  This is the replacement venue for the Newcastle’s abandoned meeting which was called off last week because of a waterlogged track.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston has saddled an incredible 92 winners at the track during the last five years whilst a trainer at the other end of experience has started well enough, given Peter Charalambous has saddled four of his twelve runners at Dunstall Park to winning effect.

This is another new meeting whereby you might want to take a look at the Irish work I offer every week (click here for further details).  It’s Punchestown Festival time and anything would be an improvement on Tuesday’s fayre this side of the Irish Sea. 

 

WEDNESDAY 25/04:

Catterick:

General stats: Mick Channon has his busy yard in good order as is usually the case at the start of the season and his 22% strike rate at Catterick is worth bearing in mind as you sift through the declarations.

 

Epsom:

General stats: Five trainers have saddled two winners at this meeting since the track re-opened in 2009 after the new stand was erected. ‘Team Hills’, Chris Wall, Andrew Balding, Richard Hannon and John Gosden being the trainers in question.  Seven of the eight races during the study period were secured by favourites (38.9%).

2.15: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals whilst four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (two winners) to date.

2.50: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of the ’Great Met’, whilst six of the last 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

3.20: Ten of the last fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners).

3.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen renewals of this Class 2 event whilst the last five gold medallists have carried weights of 9-3 or more.  Ten of the last sixteen market leaders have finished in the frame (six winners).

4.30: Twelve of the last thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners).

5.00: Five of the six winners to date have carried weights of 9-1 or more to victory, whilst five of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (four winners) to date.

 

Hereford:

General stats:  Nicky Henderson generally rules the roost at Hereford though other handlers worth keeping on the right side include Gary Moore (5/16), Warren Greatrex (4/13) and Alastair Lauderdale (3/8).

 

Perth:

General stats: General stats:  Aidan Coleman has ridden five winners at Perth via just twelve rides, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has long since ruled the roost in the trainer sector at the venue.  That said, Gordon Elliott also raids this track to good effect these days. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: Twice Red is Mandy Rowland’s only runner all week at the time of writing whereby her Kempton stats of 7/33 are worth a second glance, especially as Mandy has saddled two of her three winners this month to winning effect. 

 

THURSDAY 26/04:

Beverley:

General stats:  Frankie Dettori was due to ride at Beverley on Thursday, the jockey having ridden four winners from just seven opportunities in the last five years.  Willie Haggas saddled four winners during an eight runner spell towards the end of last week and boasting a 33% strike rate here via 5/15 figures, Willie’s horses should be kept on the right side if inmates receive the green light. 

Ten furlong ’Rapid Lad’ handicap scheduled for 2.40:  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals, whilst six of the seven winners have carried a maximum weight of nine stones.

Class 4 mile and a half handicap event scheduled for 3.10: All four favourites have finished out of the frame.

Seven and a half furlong Class 3 handicap scheduled for 3.45: Mark Johnston was responsible for four of the sixteen penultimate stage entries at the weekend, having secured four of the last seven contests.  Six favourites have prevailed during the last decade.

Class 5 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 4.20: Favourites of one description or another have secured four of the last five renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 8/1 chance.

Eight and a half furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.55: Five of the last eight contests have been secured by favourites, whilst three-year-olds have won every renewal during the last decade.

 

Brighton:

General stats:  Ryan Moore boasts a 27% strike rate at Brighton via seventeen winners, whilst trainer Stuart Williams (11/45 stats alongside an LSP figure of nine points) held two options at the meeting earlier in the week. 

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There is no history attached to the Brighton meeting.

 

Perth:

General stats:  Aidan Coleman has ridden five winners at Perth via just twelve rides, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has long since ruled the roost in the trainer sector at the venue.  That said, Gordon Elliott also raids this track to good effect these days. 

Three and a quarter-mile Hunter Chase (Perthshire Challenge Cup) event scheduled for 4.05: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

Class three two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.40: Venetia Williams was not represented in the race twelve months ago have saddled three successive winners between 2008 and 2010.

 

Uttoxeter:

General stats:  Simon Earle has won with three of the eight runners he has saddled at Uttoxeter. 

There is no history attached to the Uttoxeter meeting.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Don Cantillon (6/21) and John Butler (4/11) are two underrated trainers whose horses should come under consideration. 

 

FRIDAY 27/04:

Doncaster:

General stats: Roger Varian (5/11), Sir Henry Cecil (10/35) and Mark Buckley (3/6) all held entries at the five-day stage. 

Only two races on the Doncaster card have any history and even then, just two renewals have been contests in both cases.

 

Sandown:

General stats:  Leading trainers at this meeting during the last three years in terms of the flat events on the mixed cards: 4--Richard Hannon and Sir Michael Stoute, 3--John Gosden and 2 --Luca Cumani & Clive Cox.

Class 2 five furlong handicap scheduled for 1.15: Favourites have won four of the six renewals to date.  All six winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.

‘Esher Cup’ scheduled for 1.50: Last year’s winning favourite brought an end to a barren spell for investors as the previous eight renewals had witnessed the demise of market leaders.  John Gosden has saddled tow of the last three winners and the trainer was ‘double handed’ at the five-day stage.

Group 2 one mile event scheduled for 2.20: Richard Hannon comes into the race on a five-timer, having saddled six of the last eight winners.  Richard was responsible for three of just ten entries at the penultimate stage.

Ten furlong event for maiden fillies scheduled for 2.55: The first four favourites had won this event before last year’s 9/4 market leader finished out of the frame.

One mile conditions event scheduled for 3.30: Four favourites have obliged during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 6/1.

Class 3 three-year-old handicap scheduled for 4.05: Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston were both represented at the penultimate entry stage, each having saddled a couple of winners during the last seven years.

 

Chepstow:

General stats: James Best has ridden three winners form just eight assignments at Chepstow to date, whilst Jennie Candlish (26%) leads the represent trainers at the venue from a strike rate perspective.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.40: Five-year-olds have won secured five of the seven contests to date, whilst three of the last four favourites have obliged.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 5.15: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst five renewals have slipped by since a successful market leader was recorded.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five events.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 7.00: Twelve of the twenty-seven five-day declarations sat below the original handicap weights at the penultimate entry stage.

Class 5 maiden hurdle scheduled for 8.05: Five of the last ten events were secured by favourites.

 

Perth:

General stats:  Aidan Coleman has ridden five winners at Perth via just twelve rides, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has long since ruled the roost in the trainer sector at the venue.  That said, Gordon Elliott also raids this track to good effect these days. 

Class 4 maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Seven-year-olds have won the last four renewals, whilst three favourites prevailed during the period with a 7/2 chance scoring on the other occasion.

Three mile seven furlong handicap chase event scheduled for 2.35: The last nine winners have been returned at odds ranging between 5/1 and 25/1 with winning favourites conspicuous only by their absence.  Only two market leaders have finished in the frame during the last seven years.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.10: Six-year-olds have secured six of the last nine renewals, whilst vintage representatives come to the party on a four-timer.  Tutchec was potentially the only raider from the Nicky Richards stable, the yard having won this event three times in the last years.

Three mile three furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.50: Six-year-olds have secured four of the seven renewals, whilst favourites have won five contests thus far.  Five of the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12.

Four-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals in the closing bumper contest which is scheduled to be contested at 5.25.

 

Plumpton:

General stats:  Alan King’s return to form was highlighted by his Scottish Champion Hurdle success last week and Alan’s 37% strike rate here at Plumpton stands the closest inspection, especially given his LSP figure of nearly seventeen points.

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via six contests.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 9/2 whilst three favourites have prevailed.

 

SATURDAY 28/04:

Doncaster:

General stats: Please take Friday’s general stats into account whilst I can also report good (5/12) figures for David Lanigan on Town Moor, with the stable having horses entered for Saturday at the time of writing. 

 

Haydock:

General stats: Four of the last nine runners saddled by Willie Haggas had won at the time of writing and with the trainer boasting 34% stats at Haydock in recent times, anything offered the green light by Willie should be kept on the right side.    

 

Leicester:

General stats:  Although Saeed Bin Suroor and Jeremy Noseda are two obvious trainers to consider at this venue via their fine figures, David Barron is another trainer to respect at Leicester.  Three of David’s last nine runners had won at the time of writing and his 40% strike rate at the Oadby venue warrants close inspection. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Tom Tate has failed to make his usual fast start to the season but I’ll wager his yard will soon be firing in the winners and what better place to get the ball rolling than here at Ripon where Tom boasts an LSP figure of thirteen points via a 21% strike rate.

 

Sandown:

General stats: David Pipe is the only trainer (three gold medallists) to have saddled more than one NH winner at this mixed meeting during the last three years. Please refer to Friday’s general comments relating to flat trainer trends.

Scheduled 1.30 event: There are no trends for this event but I cannot let the contest slip by without praising the Sandown Executive for naming a race in the honour of trainer Josh Gifford who is sadly missed in racing circles throughout the land.

Class 2 nineteen furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.00: ‘Team Pipe’ have secured three of the eight renewals to date.  Two favourites have prevailed thus far whilst the last five gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of 11-3.

Class 3 Gold Cup Chase scheduled for 3.10: The last five winners have carried weights of 10-13 or less whilst eight-year-olds have secured four of the last eight contests.

‘Gordon Richards Stakes’ scheduled for 4.20: Four and five-year-olds have each won four renewals during the last decade during which time, two clear and one joint favourite have prevailed.  Only four the twelve favourites during the study period secured toteplacepot positions.

Class 2 one mile handicap scheduled for 4.50: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 during the last decade during which time, winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: With seventeen entries at the Punchestown Festival, one might have thought that Nicky Henderson might have swerved the smaller meetings this week but sure enough boasting a 34% strike rate at the venue, Nicky has found time to declare two potential runners at the five-day stage.

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Well I Declare, 17th April 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

Good Morning, here's the latest instalment of Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature, your preview of the upcoming race meetings, with an aim of finding those often-elusive winners!

TUESDAY 17/04:

Exeter:

General stats: Tom Bellamy (rides Soulard in the 3.00 event) has won on two of three horses he has ridden at Exeter. 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won all three renewals thus far, whilst favourites have secured one gold and two silver medals, securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

3.00: Both market leaders had failed to complete the course before last year’s market leader finished third in securing a toteplacepot position.

3.30: Two of the five favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events, whilst nine-year-olds have won three of the five contests.

4.30: Six of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last decade during which time, four market leaders have prevailed.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals and only Easter Meteor represents the vintage on this occasion.

5.00: Five-year-olds have won the last four contests the last three of which, were returned as successful market leaders.  Five of the last seven renewals have been won by market leaders during which time, six gold medallists scored at odds of 7/2 or less.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Twenty nine of Nicky Henderson’s sixty three winners at Kempton during the last five years have emerged in the hurdle sector.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Jamie Spencer has won on three of his last seven mounts and boasting a 37% strike rate at Southwell in recent times, Jamie’s booked rides should be treated with plenty of respect. 

 

WEDNESDAY 18/04:

Beverley:

 

General stats: Don’t forget that with the stall positions having been changed at right-handed circuits, low numbers should have the edge at Beverley. 

1.40: Favourites have won four of the last six renewals and if you didn’t hear the interview with Bill Turner (five juvenile winners via just ten runners at the time of writing) the other day, the trainer suggested that Hillbilly Boy should make amends for his debut defeat next time out.  Eight of the nine winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less.

2.45: This is the second division for the opening race on the Beverley card (1.40) whereby the same stats apply.

3.20: Four-year-olds come into the contest on a four-timer.  Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include one winner.

3.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests during which time, every winner was returned at odds of 9/1 or less, stats which include four successful market leaders.  The last six winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-1.

4.30: The first three favourites obliged before (lo and behold) the shortest priced market leader to date (4/5) failed to finish in the frame twelve months ago.  All four winners carried weights of 9-4 or less to victory.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: Five trainers saddled two winners during the two day meeting: Mahmood Al Zarooni: 6/1 & 4/1---Richard Hannon: 25/1 & 100/30---Barry Hills: 6/1 & 11/4*---Mark Johnston: 9/4 & 7/2*---Richard Fahey: 4/1 & 14/1.  Favourite record: 4/16

1.50: Barry Hills has saddled four of the last seven winners and Charlie saddles Moss Hill and Qannass on this occasion.  It’s worth noting that Barry saddled a 102/1 treble on the card three years ago before saddling a winner on each of the two days in both 2011 and 2012. Charlie will no doubt have his horses primed for the two-day meeting.  Four of the twelve favourites have won via the last eleven renewals, whilst ten market leaders finished in the frame.

2.25: Eight favourites have prevailed during the last fourteen years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions. Twelve of the fourteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 5/1 or less, the other winners having both scored at 10/1.  Favourites come to this year’s gig on a five-timer, whilst this race has proved to be a positive pointer towards Royal Ascot in the last five years.  The 2009 winner (Art Connoisseur) went to win the Coventry Stakes whilst Gilded followed up by landing the ’Queen Mary’ having won this contest four years ago. Sandwiched in between was Spirit Of Sharjah who finished third in the Norfolk Stakes before running second in the ’Flying Childers’ later in the season.  Last year’s winner Jack Who’s He was ‘only’ beaten six and a quarter lengths in the ’Coventry’ when sent off a no hoper at odds of 50/1.

3.00: Barry Hills saddled last year’s runner up in the first running of this event and son Charlie has a decent chance of going one better than dad via BALTY BOYS who scored at the first time of asking last season.  Contesting lots of decent races last year, BALTY BOYS ended in first campaign by running Crusade to a length and a quarter in the Group 1 ’Middle Park’ as a 40/1 chance.   Last year’s inaugural 100/30 favourite could only finished third behind 4/1 and 7/1 chances.

3.35: Richard Hannon grabs the headlines here, as the trainer has snared three gold, four silver and two bronze medals during the last 14 years.  Richard saddles his Strategic Prince colt REDACT this time around. Three of the last six favourites have prevailed, whilst nine of the last 14 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (four winners). All 14 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

4.10: John Gosden was winning his third ‘Nell Gwyn’ in the last thirteen years when Infallible justified favouritism three years ago.  STARSCOPE is the stable representative this time around and with the trainer boasting a great record at this two-day meeting, John’s raider deserves plenty of respect.  Five favourites have won this trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the fourteen year study period.

4.45: Seven of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the last thirteen years, statistics which include three winners.

5.20: John Gosden has declared his Galileo colt Shantaram who will be John’s fifth runner in the race, the trainer having saddled 20/1 and 7/1 winners in the contest thus far.  We still await the first successful market leaders following four renewals.

 

Cheltenham:

General stats: Last year’s stats at this two day meeting: 3 winners--P. Hobbs (15/2--9/2--Evens*)--2 winners---Paul Nicholls (11/4 & 11/10*)---Favourite record: 7/14

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Six of the last nine renewals have been secured by the favourite whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 7/1.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three winners during the study period.

Three and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.35: All four favourites had finished out of the frame (via three renewals) before last year’s successful 2/1 market leader stopped the rot. Nine of the twelve horses to have secured toteplacepot positions carried a minimum weight of 11-3.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3/10: Philip Hobbs has saddled tow of the last three winners and the trainer held three options for this year’s renewal at the time of writing.

Grade 2 Silver Trophy Chase scheduled for 3.45: Favourites have won five contests during the last decade during which time, Paul Nicholls has saddled four gold medallists.  Eight-year-olds come to this year’s gig on a four-timer.

Three mile novice handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-11 or more, whilst favourites have secured four of the last seven contests.  Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last seven renewals with six year’s old coming into the race on a four-timer on this occasion.  Nine winners during the last decade have won at odds of 9/1 or less.

Class 2 novice chase scheduled for 4.55: Although ‘only’ three favourites have won during the last decade (market leaders come to the part on a hat trick this time around), the biggest priced winner during the last decade was returned at just 6/1.  Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and with nine of the fourteen penultimate entries hailing from the vintage, seven-year-olds were 8/15 to extend the run before form was taken into consideration.

Conditional jockeys/Amateur riders event scheduled for 5.30: All four winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more whilst favourites come into the race on a hat trick.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Respectfully, I am not sure exactly who P.A.Deal is but this is a lucky owner at the track and no mistake. Three of his four runners have snared gold medals to date!  His only runner on the card is Kozmina Bay (6.50). 

 

THURSDAY 19/04:

Newmarket:

General stats: Five trainers saddled two winners during the two day meeting: Mahmood Al Zarooni: 6/1 & 4/1---Richard Hannon: 25/1 & 100/30---Barry Hills: 6/1 & 11/4*---Mark Johnston: 9/4 & 7/2*---Richard Fahey: 4/1 & 14/1.  Favourite record: 4/16.

Juvenile event scheduled for 1.50: Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years, whilst nine market leaders snared toteplacepot positions during the period.  The biggest priced winner during the last decade was an 11/1 chance (last year).

‘Wood Ditton’ scheduled for 2.25: Nine of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the fourteen year study period.

‘Tattersalls Millions’ event scheduled for 3.00: All three favourites have finished out with the washing behind winners returned at 25/1 (Richard Hannon), 9/1 (Michael Bell) and 8/12 (John Gosden).

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Listed ‘Abernant Stakes’ scheduled for 3.35: Four-year-olds have won five renewals during the last 14 years, whilst claiming sixteen of the forty one available toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Three market leaders have prevailed (within the last eight years), whilst seven of the fifteen favourites have reached the frame during the study period.

Group 3 ‘Craven Stakes’ due to be contested at 4.10: Nine of the fifteen market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions (six winners) during the study period.  Favourites have won four of the last five renewals (the other winner scored at 9/4) with market leaders coming into this year’s event on a four-timer.

‘Earl of Sefton’ event scheduled for 4.45: Four-year-olds have claimed eight of the last fourteen renewals whilst securing over half (20/35) of the available toteplacepot positions.  Ten of the sixteen market leaders have reached the frame (three winners) during the study period.

Three-year-old maiden event for fillies scheduled for 5.20: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last eight winners and with Ryan Moore already booked to ride Albanka (Michael’s only option in the contest at the penultimate entry stage), the Giant’s Causeway filly will be on my short list, albeit she lacks big race entries at this moment in time.  Nine winners during the last decade have been returned at odds of 15/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.

Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite obliged in the closing one and a quarter-mile handicap contest which is scheduled for 5.50.  Mark Johnston has secured two of the last three contests with the trainer holding four options for this year’s event at the time of writing.

 

Ripon:

General stats: John Gosden (3/7), Sir Henry Cecil (4/11), William Haggas (8/27) and Brian Meehan (5/17) all boast good ratios at Ripon and held options at the meeting at the time of writing.

 

Cheltenham:

General stats: Last year’s stats at this two-day meeting: 3 winners--P. Hobbs (15/2--9/2--Evens*)--2 winners---Paul Nicholls (11/4 & 11/10*)---Favourite record: 7/14.

Two mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 2.35: The last three winners have scored at 33/1-14/1-10/1 whilst three other winners during the last decade were returned at odds ranging between 10/1 and 12/1).  Seven of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, stats which include three successful favourites.

Class 2 (Ian Williams) handicap chase scheduled for 3.45: Philip Hobbs leads Paul Nicholls 3-2 during the last decade whilst nine-year-olds have secured six of the ten contests.  Three favourites have scored since 2004 which in the context of this competitive event is a decent record.  Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame whilst all ten gold medallists scored at odds of 17/2 or less.

Three mile Class 2 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals whilst the only successful favourites during the period emerged in the last two years.  Only three of the twelve favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Conditional jockeys’ event scheduled for 4.55: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, stats which include one successful market leader.

Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via nine renewals of the closing mares bumper event.  Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last seven contests.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: In a busy week at Newmarket, it was a little surprising to find a lone Sir Henry Cecil entry on the card as Lord Nandi potentially represents the stable in the 7.35 event.  Henry boasts a strike rate of 24% (9/37) at Wolverhampton which has produced a level stake profit of nearly thirteen points. 

 

FRIDAY 20/04:

Newbury:

General stats: Three trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Richard Hannon (8/1 & 4/1**)---John Gosden (7/1 & 4/1*)---Sir Henry Cecil (3/1 & 1/4*). Favourite record: 4/16.

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Eight of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).

Seven furlong 3YO handicap event scheduled for 2.35: Two of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (no winners).

3YO maiden fillies event scheduled for 3.15: Six of the last eight market leaders have won whilst eleven of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last thirteen years.

Ten furlong 3YO maiden fillies event scheduled for 3.50: Ten of the last eleven favourites have been beaten, though nine of those market leaders at least managed to reach the frame.

3YO conditions event scheduled for 4.25: Four favourites have prevailed which is not a bad record at all, though nine of the other ten market leaders missed out on toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

Bath:

General stats: In a potentially busy week for the trainer, Marcus Tregoning has found time to enter Lady Rosamunde for the scheduled 5,00 event, Marcus having saddled ten of his last thirty three runners at Bath to winning effect. 

 

Ayr:

General stats: Four trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Paul Nicholls (9/2** & 1/10*)---Nicky Henderson (11/2** & 5/4*)---Ferdy Murphy (14/1 & 11/1)---Howard Johnson (9/2 & 4/1). Favourite record: 6/14.

Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last nine winners and the trainer was also responsible for the only successful three favourites to oblige during the last decade.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.25: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.

Four favourites have obliged via seven renewals of the closing three-mile handicap hurdle which was due to be contested at 5.35:

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Kim Bailey has enjoyed a fine season and the trainer sneaks under the radar here via a 26% strike rate, given that (respectfully) more successful handlers tend to rule the roost here at Fontwell, none more so than Paul Nicholls whose strike rate of 34% heads the list. 

 

Southwell:

General stats: Charlie Mann’s 30% strike rate is worth a second glance, especially as the trainer has produced a level stake profit of nearly nineteen points in the process.

 

SATURDAY 21/04:

Newbury:

General stats: Three trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Richard Hannon (8/1 & 4/1**)---John Gosden (7/1 & 4/1*)---Sir Henry Cecil (3/1 & 1/4*). Favourite record: 4/16.

‘John Porter’ event scheduled for 2.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.

‘Fred Darling’ scheduled for 2.35: Mick Channon has saddled four winners during the last decade and Mick held three entries at the five day stage.

‘Greenham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Richard Hannon has saddled four winners during the last decade with Richard only potentially being represented by Bronterre this time around.

Newbury Spring Cup scheduled for 3.45: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last fourteen years whilst claiming twenty-eight toteplacepot positions in the process!  Five of the sixteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 13 renewals in the last 14 years (one winner).

(draw details--eight furlongs)

10-8-7-3 (25 ran-good to firm)

12-11-3-17 (23 ran-good)

20-19-24-8 (23 ran--soft)
11-10-7-14 (17 ran--soft)
11-4-10-21 (23 ran-good to firm)
13-18-9-22 (25 ran-good)
22-5-19-16 (19 ran-good to soft)
26-25-8-24 (27 ran-good)
14-12-4-9 (25 ran-good to firm)
20-18-8-21 (21 ran-good to firm)
6-22-9-20 (24 ran-good to soft)
14-17-18-13 (19 ran-good to firm)
1-4-5 (15 ran-heavy)

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Three of Ralph Beckett’s last four runners have won at the time of writing and it’s worth noting that Ralph has amassed a small LSP figure at Nottingham via a 20% strike rate during the last five years.

Five furlong fillies handicap scheduled for 5.30: Only one favourite has obliged via the last eight contests during the decade.

Three-year-old handicap scheduled for 7.00: All ten winners during the last decade carried weights of 8-13 or more to victory.

3YO maiden event scheduled for 7.30 over a mile and a quarter: Sir Henry Cecil has won with the last two runners he has saddled in the contest and Ian Mongan was already jocked aboard Henry’s only option (Romantic) for the contest at the time of writing.

Class 6 ten furlong handicap scheduled for 8.00: Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last five contests.

Class 3 three-year-old contest scheduled for 4.25: Three of the last four winners have scored at 40/1-18/1-10/1 whilst just one favourite has obliged via the last seven renewals.

 

Thirsk:

General stats: Tony Coyle has won with his only two runners at Thirsk to date whereby Thatcherite (Tony’s only entry on the card) catches the eye in the scheduled 2.10 event.  Other trainers to keep on the right side include John Dunlop, John Gosden and Derek Shaw.

Class 5 six furlong maiden event scheduled for 2.40: Only one successful favourite to report via the last nine renewals.

Class 3 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.15: Winners at 181/-14/1-12/1-12/1 have accompanied the only successful favourite in this contest to date via just the five renewals.

Seven furlongs conditions event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first winning favourite following five renewals of the race.

 

Ayr:

General stats: General stats: Four trainers saddled two winners at last year‘s two day meeting: Paul Nicholls (9/2** & 1/10*)---Nicky Henderson (11/2** & 5/4*)---Ferdy Murphy (14/1 & 11/1)---Howard Johnson (9/2 & 4/1). Favourite record: 6/14.

‘Future Champion Novice chase’ scheduled for 2.15: The biggest priced winner during the last decade was returned last year at 8/1, whilst three favourites scored during the period.  Paul Nicholls saddled winners at 7/2-3/1-9/4, the latter named gold medallist having been returned as joint favourite.

Scottish Champion Hurdle scheduled for 2.50: All ten winners during the last decade carried weights of 10-13 or less.

Scottish Grand National scheduled for 3.25: Only four of the thirteen favourites during the last decade finished in the frame (no winners).

Novice handicap chase scheduled for 5.10: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last eight contests with vintage representatives going into this year’s event on a five-timer.

Nicky Henderson comes into the closing bumper event on a hat trick, whilst three of the last four favourites have prevailed. 


Bangor:

General stats: Tom Symonds held eight entries at Bangor on Saturday, the trainer having saddled two of his four runners at the track to winning effect. 

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Peter Charalanbous is among the winners and his 4/10 strike rate at Dunstall Park demands plenty of respect. 

Well I Declare, 11th April 2012

Well I Declare

Well I Declare including Aintree

Well I Declare--Grand National Week! 

TUESDAY: 

Pontefract: 

General stats: Jimmy Fortune has three booked rides at a venue where the jockey boasts recent stats of 26% via nine winners, which have produced a level stake profit of twenty seven points.  Polly Holder (3.50) is Paul Darcy’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled three of his five runners at Pontefract to winning effect during the last five years.  

2.20: Horses carrying weights of 8-10 or less have claimed 11 of the 15 (including winners at 16/1-11/1-10/1) available toteplacepot positions to date

4.25: Richard Fahey comes into the contest on a hat trick and the trainer held two options at the five-day stage and now relied on Las Verglas Star.  Horses carrying weights of nine stones or less have secured seven of the nine available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 16/1-9/1-9/4. These stats suggest that Splendid Light could take the beating, especially as trainer John Gosden has saddled five of his seventeen runners to winning effect in recent years.

4.55: Six of the thirteen favourites have troubled the judge (four winners) via 12 renewals. 

Yarmouth: 

General stats: Trainer George Baker boasts a 24% strike rate at Yarmouth and his only runner on today’s card is Final Delivery in the 3.40 event. 

Southwell:

General stats: Daryll Holland has two rides on the card having ridden sixteen winners at the track in recent times which have yielded an LSP figure of nearly forty points. 

WEDNESDAY: 

Catterick: 

General stats: Paul Cole sends just one horse on the long journey north on Wednesday when Joy To The World contests the 4.00 event.  Paul has saddled two of his seven runners to winning effect at the venue during the last five years. 

2.00: Five renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered, albeit eight of the last nine winners have scored at 8/1 or less, stats which include two successful market leaders. Level £100 stake losses on favourites during the period would have amounted to £482.50. 

Nottingham: 

General stats: Frankie Dettori has four booked rides at Nottingham at the time of writing and with the former champion boasting a 35% record at the track during the last five years, his mounts are worth keeping on the right side.  Lesotho (3.10) is Noel Quinlan’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled two of his six runners at Nottingham to winning effect thus far. 

2.10: David Evans saddled three successive winners of this event before a 9/4 stable representative was beaten by a head in the contest twelve months ago.  David potentially saddles his recent Wolverhampton winner Dreamy Ciara this time around.

2.40: Favourites have won six of the last nine contests with the biggest priced winner being returned at 9/1 during the period.

3.10: Four of the last five winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more to victory whilst just one favourite has prevailed via the last seven contests.

3.40: Four-year-olds had won four successive events before last year’s contest when the vintage was not represented.

5.10: All seven recent contests have been won by horses carrying weights of 9-5 or less whilst winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence during the last six years. 

Kempton: 

General stats: Super Duplex (9.00) was Ian Mongan’s only booked ride at the time of writing with the jockey have produced an LSP figure at Kempton of seventy eight points. 

Lingfield: 

General stats: It is extremely rare for a jockey who has ridden the thick end of seven hundred horses at a venue (during the last five years) to be able to boast a level stake profit, though Jim Crowley has managed that feat via ninety two ‘recent’ winners at Lingfield. 

THURSDAY: 

Folkestone: 

General stats: Rod Millman (30% strike rate) and Laura Morgan (29%) are two trainers to respect at Kent’s only racecourse.  

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Richard Hannon has won three of the last nine contests and his only entry earlier in the week was Lucky Suit with Ryan Moore already booked to ride the Red Clubs debutante.  Six of the nine renewals have been secured by favourites with the biggest priced winner being returned at 8/1 two years ago.  Level £10 stake profits via market leaders during the period would have amounted to £55.22.

Apprentice handicap scheduled for 5.35: Six of the seven winners carried weights of 9/2 or less whilst just one (joint) favourite has prevailed thus far.  

Aintree: 

General stats: Restless Harry could be the each way call against Big Bucks in the opening event of the three day meeting given that Robin Dickin has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect, notwithstanding a silver medallist into the bargain.  Add the fact that Robin has saddled three winners via just six runners at Aintree in recent times and a potential 20/1 win and place contender emerges from the Big Bucks mist!  James Bethel (2/3) and Martin Keighley (2/7) are two other names to consider from the trainer ranks, given that entries were in place at the time of writing. 

 

General stats: Peter Bowen is on the cold trainer list at present but his LSP figure of well into three figures at the track suggests you leave his outsiders out of the mix to your potential peril.  For all that Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson dominate stats all over the land, both trainers ‘only’ boast a 14% strike rate here at Liverpool confirming just how competitive the racing is at the Merseyside venue.

 

Big Bucks has won the last three renewals of the opening event of the three day Grand National meeting. Aggregate winning distance during the period: eleven lengths.

Class 1 4YO juvenile hurdle event: Favourites have won six of the last seven contests, the only market leader beaten during the period having finished third, securing a toteplacepot position in the process.

Grade 1 three mile one furlong steeplechase scheduled for 3.05: Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade though that said, eight winners were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

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Foxhunters event scheduled for 3.40: Last year’s successful 3/1 favourite was only the second market leader to oblige during the last decade.  That said, nine winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Grade 3 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.15: The last six (and nine of the last ten) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1.  Only one (co) favourite has prevailed during the last six years.

Grade 1 two and a half mile novice chase scheduled for 4.50: We still await the first successful favourite via three contests thus far, the last two market leaders having finished second in their respective events.

Three mile Grade 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 5.25: The last favourite obliged back in 2002, whilst eight of the nine subsequent gold medallists were sent off at priced ranging between 10/1 and 50/1.  All ten winners carried weights of 11-1 or less.  

Newton Abbot (meeting transferred from Taunton): 

General stats: Jim Best boasts a 24% strike rate at Newton Abbot and the trainer held four options at the track earlier in the week. 

 

Selling handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Favourites (one clear and one joint) have won both renewals to date.

Nineteen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.30: Paul Nicholls (two entries at the time of writing) has won with his only two runners in the race thus far.

Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 4.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals.  Favourites have secured four of the eight contests during the study period, the biggest priced winner being returned at 9/1.

Three and a quarter mile Hunter Chase scheduled for 5.15: Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being registered. 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Keith Dalgleish is beginning to saddle winners at lots of different venues, though his runners here at Wolverhampton demand plenty of attention.  Jockeys with very good LSP records here (with booked rides at the time of writing) include Joe Fanning, Tom Queally, Raul De Silva and Andrea Atzeni. 

FRIDAY: 

Leicester: 

General stats: Amazing Amoray was David Barron’s only entry (scheduled to contest the 3.30 event) on the card at a track where David has saddled four winners from just ten representatives.  Frankie Dettori leads the strike figures at 39% in the jockey sector.

 

Juvenile event scheduled for 2.20: Four favourites have won during the last decade (£100 level stake profits of £287.50) during which time, eight winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less.

3YO six furlong selling event scheduled for 2.55: Six of the last nine favourites have won with eight winners being returned at odds of 9/2 or less.  £100 level stake profits would have amounted to £933.41 during the period.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 3.30: All six winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (two successful market leaders).

Six furlong Conditions event scheduled for 4.40: Three of the last five favourites have obliged.  

Aintree: 

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds come to the party on a four timer, vintage representatives having won seven of the last nine contests.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade.

Grade 2 ‘Mildmay’ novices event scheduled for 2.30: All ten winners during the last decade scored at odds of 7/1 or less, stats which include three success market leaders.

Nine-year-olds have won four renewals of the Grade 1 ‘Melling Chase’ (scheduled for 3.05) during the last decade during which time, five favourites have obliged, though just one of the last six contests has been secured by a market leader.

‘Topham Chase’ scheduled for 3.40: Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-5 or less, whilst Peter Bowen has declared Always Waining who has won this race in each of the last two years.  Peter has saddled the winner of the race three times in the last five years at odds of 25/1-22/1-14/1.  It’s also worth noting that Peter Saddled Always Waining to finish fourth at 25/1 (securing a toteplacepot position) in 2009.

Three mile Grade 1 novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.15: Six-year-olds had won three successive renewals before vintage representative could only manage to snare the silver and bronze medals last year at odds of 28/1 and 4/1!  The last five winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-9/1 with two of the five market leaders missing out on toteplacepot positions in the process.  Two market leaders have won during the last decade.

Mares Listed bumper event scheduled for 5.25: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via seven renewals to date during which time, just one favourite has obliged.  Three of the last four winners have scored at 28/1-25/1-20/1. 

Sedgefield: 

General stats: Not much information to report other than ‘occasional visitors’ Mel Brittain and William Kinsey have both saddled two winners from five runners in recent times.

Two winning favourites (11/4 & 7/4) were accompanied by gold medallists which were  returned at 20/1--10/1--9/1--8/1--8/1 on last year’s inaugural card. 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: William Knight (28% strike rate) and Gerard Butler (23%) have both produced positive LSP figures in recent times. 

SATURDAY: 

Newcastle: 

General stats: Richard Guest has saddled far more turf winners here at Newcastle than at any other flat venue and having saddled ten winners last month, Richard’s declarations are worth a second glance.

 

This is a new meeting though it’s worth reporting that William Buick was already book to ride three potential runners for John Gosden on the card.  Robert Winston was also ‘jocked up’ early for several different trainers. 

Aintree: 

General stats: Just forty eight horses stood their ground at the five day stage in the Grand National, with only eleven runners from last year still involved.  

Grade 2 novice hurdle scheduled for 1.45: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick, vintage representatives having secured four of the last eight contests.  Only two favourites (one clear and one joint) have won during the last decade, though seven winners were sent off at odds of 9/2 or less.

Listed handicap steeplechase scheduled for 3.25: Just one favourite has obliged via the last nine contests, with four of the last six winners returned in double figures.  Six of the eleven market leaders during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions.  Six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones.

Grand National scheduled to be contested at 4.15: Two joint and one clear favourite have won the Grand National in the last seven years which is a great record in such a competitive event.  Nine winners during the last decade have carried weights of 11-1 or less down the years which is par for the course down the years.  Nine and ten-year-olds continue to dominate the contest, with the ten-year-olds leading 4-2 as far as the last six contests are concerned.  Vintage representatives have secured eleven of the last sixteen available toteplacepot positions.  Last year’s winning trainer Donald McCain was winning his first Grand National with his seventh runner in the race and given the record of his much missed father, it’s doubtful if we have seen the last McCain winner of this prestigious event.

Conditional/amateur riders event scheduled for 5.05: All three favourites have finished out of the money behind winners returned at 66/1-14/1-11/1.

Grade 2 closing bumper event scheduled for 5.45: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests during which time just one (6/5) favourite emerged.  Recent winners have scored at 66/1-50/1-33/1-28/1-25/1-12/1 during the study period. 

Chepstow: 

General stats: Jennie Candlish (24% strike rate producing forty two points of level stakes profits) leads the way relating to trainers who were due to be represented at the meeting. 

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.35: Favourites have won four of the six renewals to date.  

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 5.50: Eight-year-olds have won three of the six contests thus far.  Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed.

Paul Nicholls has saddled three of the last five winners of the closing bumper event (scheduled for 6.20), the same number of winning favourites during the period.  Yes you are spot on, Paul saddled the three successful market leaders! 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Saeed Bin Suroor’s terrific 55% strike rate (via thirty four winners) stands out from the crowd. 

One mile Listed event scheduled for 3.05: Four favourites have won during the last decade during which time, seven winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less.

3YO six furlong maiden event scheduled for 3.40: Favourites (of one description or another) have won three of the last four contests.  The last ten winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

Class 5 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 5.15: We still await the first successful favourite to be registered following six renewals.

Class 6 mile and a quarter handicap scheduled for 5.45: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer, whilst all five winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1.  

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Mark Johnston held nine options for the meeting earlier in the week at a venue where he continues to top the tree (24% strike rate) as far as regular trainers at Dunstall Park are concerned.

Well I Declare, 3rd April 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

It's Tuesday, so it's time to look at the week ahead, courtesy of Malcolm Boyle's excellent Well I Declare feature. As Mal has rightly identified, the race planning bods have changed quite a lot of the fixtures around last week and this, so the trends are not as strong as usual.

We're all expecting normal service to resume next week with the Grand National meeting, but there are still sure to be some gems in the below.

Enjoy!

TUESDAY 3rd April:

Fontwell:

General stats: Sometimes I have to offer ‘boring’ stats that top trainers have farmed venues down the years and with Paul Nicholls (33/98) and Nicky Henderson (12/41) leading the strike rates at Fontwell, this is one such racecourse.

2.40: The only favourite not to prevail via four renewals to date was an even money chance which beat the 5/6 market leader in a ‘match’ event two years ago.

Sedgefield:

General stats: Four of the last nine runners saddled by Tom George have won at the time of writing and with Tom boasting a 25% strike rate here at Sedgefield (2/8), Cottage Acre (5.00) could be worth a saver.

Southwell:

General stats: Apple Blossom Time is blinkered for the first time (5.20) representing Derek Haydn Jones who boasts an LSP figure of sixty two points during the last five years at Southwell.

WEDNESDAY 4th April:

Exeter:

General stats: Donald McCain saddled twenty one winners last month via a 23% strike rate and his representatives have performed well at this venue in the past.  Six of his twenty runners have won (30% strike rate) producing an LSP figure of eight points in the process.

Class 4 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.20: The last four winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more whilst favourites have secured three of the last seven contests.

Hereford:

General stats: Although Jim Best, Warren Greatrex, Nicky Henderson and Gary Moore have better strike rates of the potentially represented trainers on Wednesday, Charlie Longsdon’s 118 points of level stake profits (26% S/R) grabs the headlines at Hereford.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals.  Just one favourite obliged during the same period, flanked by gold medallists which were returned at 25/1-14/1-14/1-8/1.

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe’s runners have been figuring prominently in recent days and his level stake profits at Lingfield of sixty three points certainly catch the eye.  Pat Phelan is another trainer whose runners deserve plenty of respect via his seventy three point LSP return during the last five years.

Wolverhampton:

General stats: The usual suspects line up at Wolverhampton with Mark Johnston still leading the way in terms of trends.  That said, Frank Sheridan remains a trainer to keep on the right side having recorded an LSP figure over one hundred and twenty points at the venue in recent times.

THURSDAY 5th April:

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Folkestone:

General stats: Having ridden four of his six mounts at Folkestone to winning effect thus far, Kieran O’Neill’s solitary booking at the time of writing caught the eye.  Reinvigorate was taken out of a Kempton event at the weekend and Richard Hannon potentially re-routes the juvenile to the Kent venue with O’Neill supposedly in the plate.  Richard boasts an LSP figure of 24% at Folkestone which is bettered by Stuart Kittow (33%) and William Knight (36%) though naturally, far less runners have been sent out by those trainers. Paul Cole and Clive Cox also raid the racecourse to good effect.

2YO maiden event scheduled for 2.40: Multiple entries in just a twelve strong five-day field were held by Mick Channon (4), Richard Hannon (2) and David Evans (2).

Ludlow:

General stats: Martin Keighley and Charlie Egerton boast decent strike rates though Nicky Henderson very much rules the roost here at Ludlow.  Nicky has saddled forty winners during the last five years producing an LSP figure of fifteen points via a 38% strike rate, which is formidable given the number of runners the trainer saddled at the course.

Two and a half mile novice chase event scheduled for 2.50: Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls shared the four top weighted horses for the this contest at the penultimate entry stage.  Evan was responsible for six of the seventeen potential runners at the time.

Three mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.20: Five favourites have won via seven contests thus far, whilst the same umber of gold medallists carried a minimum weight of eleven stones to success.  Keith Goldsworthy has saddled the last two winners and his only entry at the time of writing was Oca De Thaix.

Wincanton:

General stats: Steve Dixon holds just one entry at the track on Thursday which is Warsaw Pact (due to contest the scheduled 2.00 event).  Steve has saddled three of his ten runners at the course to winning effect, with Jim Best (two potential representatives) also recording good figures at Wincanton.  Jim’s record of 4/12 in recent times has produced a positive LSP figure, though nothing like Steve’s thirty nine points of profit.

Twenty seven furlong handicap chase event scheduled for 4.00: All three market leaders have finished out with the washing thus far.  The three winners carried weights of 11-3 or more, as have six of the seven horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.

NO RACING GOOD FRIDAY, 6TH APRIL

SATURDAY 7th April:

Musselburgh:

General stats: Musselburgh also race on Sunday and Bryan Smart held eighteen declarations for the two day meeting at the time of writing.  Bryan boasts a 25% recent record producing an LSP figure of forty six points, whilst other trainers to take into account are Julie Camacho (4/9) and Rae Guest (2/4).

2YO maiden event scheduled for 2.45: Seventeen of Bryan Smart’s twenty seven recent winners at Musselburgh have hailed from the trainer’s juvenile ranks and Rhagori Aur was Bryan’s only potential runner in the race.  The Exceed And Excel filly should be followed through the early weeks of the season irrespective of how she performs here (if taking her chance) as Bryan thinks a great deal of his potential raider.  That said, Richard Fahey comes into the contest on a hat trick having secured a silver medal with his only other runner in the race.  Richard’s only option earlier in the week was his Kyllachy colt Polski Max.  It’s worth noting that Woodford Mill (touted up in this column last week before wining at 5/1) won the first juvenile race for the season for Richard, who scored with six of the first sixteen two-year-olds he saddled last year.

Five furlong conditions event scheduled for 4.25: Bryan Smart secured the previous two renewals before an 18/1 inmate ran third in the contest last year.  Note the general stats for Bryan above whilst digesting the fact that Bryan held just the one entry (Excel Bolt) for the contest at the five day stage.  The five favourites thus far have secured four gold and one silver medal.

Carlisle:

General stats: Manadam was the only potential Ian Williams (2/4 at the track) runner earlier in the week, whilst Mick Easterby is the other trainer to keep on the right side.  The dual purpose trainer has made a decent start on the level this week but his heart lies in the NH sector I fancy and Mick revels in training winners at the northern venues.

Haydock:

General stats: Caroline Bailey (4/9) and Nick Williams (5/16) are ‘new kids on the block’ to take note of, even though this is very much Donald McCain country.  Colin Tizzard and Lucy Wadham have both saddled three winners form a small number of runners at the track.

Class 2 two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.55: Favourites come into the event on a four timer, whilst eight-year-olds have secured three of the five contests.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.05: Two favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four renewals (no winners).

Three and a half mile handicap chase event scheduled for 4.40: We still await the first successful favourite following five contests thus far.

Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last three winners of the closing bumper event which is due to be contested at 5.15.  Four-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.

Newton Abbot:

General stats: David Pipe has not quite lived up to dad’s ‘monopoly’ of Newton Abbot contests despite sending out thirty seven winners in recent years.  Martin didn’t have Paul Nicholls to contend with for many years however, the Ditcheat based handler boasting a 32% strike rate via forty six gold medallists in the last five years.  Bedarra Boy would be an interesting raider from David Arbuthnot’s yard if given the green light.

Kempton:

General stats: Charlie Hills had won with four of this last ten runners when writing this column early on Tuesday morning and it was great to witness Barry supervising representatives at Kempton on Saturday.  Charlie has already saddled three winners at Kempton during his brief career at the helm and plenty more winners will be saddled at the Sunbury circuit.

2YO maiden event scheduled for 1.35: Three favourites have won via six renewals thus far, with Richard Hannon scoring on two occasions.  Richard held two options at the time of writing.  Mick Channon is entering plenty of juvenile runners during the early days of the turf season with another four inmates potentially running here.

Class 2 one mile qualifier scheduled for 2.05: All six winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more thus far during which time, two favourites have prevailed.

Listed one mile fillies event scheduled for 2.40: Just five of the thirteen penultimate stage entries were four-year-olds which was surprising, given that vintage representatives have won seven of the eight contests.  Three favourites have obliged whilst six winners scored at odds of 9/2 or less.

‘Queen’s Prize’ scheduled for 3.15: Four-year-olds have won half of the renewals during the last decade during which time, four favourites have scored.

Class 3 seven furlong handicap: Mark Johnston claimed this event two years ago and the trainer was represented by four inmates at the penultimate stage.  Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer, whilst the biggest priced winner via six renewals was returned at just 5/1.

- Malcolm Boyle

For this week's Irish horse racing stats, click here.

Well I Declare: 27th March 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

The sun is shining, there's a week's racing to look forward to and Malcolm Boyle has just completed his weekly preview: what's not to be happy about?

So, without further ado, let's see what mal has picked out for us this week, shall we?

Mal starts this week with a general comment about the racing programme:  "The main factor over the next few weeks is the number of ‘new’ meetings staged which happens around the Easter period every year.  The date of Easter changes from year to year whereby the Grand National is fitted in where best in the eyes of the people who run the sport and new fixtures are ‘slotted in’ accordingly."

TUESDAY 27/03:

Hereford:

General Stats: Two of the up and coming trainers excel at Hereford on past performances.  Rebecca Curtis boasts a record of 15/46 via a 33% strike rate, whilst Charlie Longsdon has recorded a level stake profit of one hundred and eighteen points via ten winners.

2.10: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, though two favourites have finished in the frame thus far.

2.40: Four of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include two winners.

 

Market Rasen:

General Stats: Two of the last six horses saddled by Kim Bailey have won, whilst the trainer boasts a recent strike rate of 35% via eight winners at the Lincolnshire venue.  Kim has two declarations on the card.

 

Southwell:

General Stats: David Nicholls (154 points) and David Barron (121) boast tremendous level stake profits at Southwell during the last five years.

3.30: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the nine available toteplacepot positions via three renewals, stats which include winners at 5/1 and 11/4.  Today’s two vintage representatives could offer each way/toteplacepot value, namely Slatey Hen and Ever Roses.  Richard Guest saddles Slatey Hen and it’s worth noting that the yard are enjoying a good period (nine winners this month), having landed a 53/1 forecast in this event twelve months ago.  Only one of the four favourites (winner of its respective race at 11/4) has finished in the frame.

5.30: Favourites have secured both renewals to date.

 

WEDNESDAY 28/03:

Ludlow:

General Stats: Rebecca Curtis is rapidly making a big name for herself in the sport and yet again, her stats here (7/26) stand out from the crowd.  I have reported the fact many times that Tony McCoy’s bookings for the yard are worth heeding and her four five-day stage entries are worth following if the relevant beasts receive the green light, especially if Tony is booked to ride them.

Two mile claiming hurdle race scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions thus far, stats which include two of the three winners which were sent off at 9/1 and 4/1.  All three favourites have finished in the frame (one winner).

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Although two of the last three market leaders have obliged, the other five favourites during the last decade all finished out with the washing.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: All six winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-1 thus far.  Five of the eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, stats which include two winners via six renewals.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.50: Six of the last seven favourites have finished in the money, stats which include four winners.

Four-year-olds had won six consecutive contests before an 11/8 six year-old Nicky Henderson favourite spoiled the figures twelve months ago in this closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.20).

 

Taunton:

General Stats: Lawney Hill has saddled four of her nine runners to winning effect at this venue whereby her two potential runners on the card create interest.  Paul Nicholls remains the man to follow however in more general terms.  Paul’s 34% ratio is all the more impressive when taking into account his sixty four winners at Taunton during the last five years.

 

Lingfield:

General Stats: Because of the amount of racing staged at Lingfield these days, not too many trainers boast healthy LSP stats, though Tom Dascombe (level stake profit of sixty-two points) bucks the trend.

 

Kempton:

General Stats: Richard Hannon is just two winners shy of the one hundred mark at Kempton during the last five years.  Readers should not back the trainer ‘blindly’ however as unfortunately, punters would have suffered a 152 point loss to level stakes during the period.

 

THURSDAY 29/03:

Ffos Las:

General Stats: Anthony Honeyball (4/10) and Richard Lee (6/20) have created something of a stir since racing began at this venue in 2009, though Nicky Henderson and Tony McCoy have ruled the respective roosts in general terms.

 

Newcastle:

General Stats: Chris Grant has saddled three of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing (6/1-11/4-2/1) and with the trainer boasting stats of 5/22 at Gosforth Park, stable representatives are worth a second glance.

 

Kempton:

General Stats: Luke Morris and Adam Kirby are both due to ride at the meeting having ridden 95 winners apiece at the Sunbury circuit during the last five years.

 

Wolverhampton:

General Stats: Charlie Hills boasts a level profit stake of five points at the venue during his brief training career thus far via 4/18 stats.

 

FRIDAY 30/03:

Newcastle:

General Stats: Two of the last three horses saddled by David O’Meara had won at the time of writing and with David boasting a strike rate of 29% (4/14) at Newcastle in recent times under the NH code, his four potential runners at the two-day meeting are worth taking into account.

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Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Favourites have secured two gold and one silver medal thus far, the biggest priced winner to date being returned at 5/4.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.35: We still await the first successful favourites in recent times via six renewals during the last decade.  The six winners were returned at 33/1-22/1-12/1-10/1-6/1-9/2. The last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4.

Two and a half mile novice handicap chase contest scheduled for 4.10:  We still await the first winning favourite following three renewals.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 5.15: John Wade was not represented last year having won the first two contests via 9/2 and 100/30 chances.  John held one option for this year’s event at the time of writing, namely course and distance winner Harris Hawk with James Reveley already booked to ride.

 

Wetherby:

General Stats: If Richard Johnson and/or Felix De Giles ride at the meeting, readers are advised to offer plenty of respect to their mounts.  Richard has ridden ten of his twenty-three mounts (43%) to winning effect in recent times, whilst Felix boasts stats of 8/20 (40%) during the period.

 

Lingfield:

General Stats: A few decent priced winners have come our way this year via the runners of David Griffiths at Lingfield whose strike rate stands at 32% (6/19) which has produced an LSP figure of fourteen points.

 

Wolverhampton:

General Stats: Frank Sheridan is just the type of trainer to produce an upset when attention is focused elsewhere and his runners this week have a pre-Doncaster ‘shock factor’ to take into consideration.

 

SATURDAY 31/03:

Doncaster:

General Stats: Richard Fahey was the only trainer at last year’s two day meeting to saddle more than one winner (three in total at 11/1, 13/2 & 11/2) whilst just four of the sixteen favourites obliged (13/8, 7/4, 10/3 & 5/1).  The trainers of the successful favourites respectively were Richard Hannon, Alan Bailey, John Quinn and Michael Bell.  No trainer saddled more than one beaten favourite, the shortest priced market leader failing to score being sent out by John Dunlop at odds of 5/4.  Last year’s toteplacepot dividend was £19,426.50 (just two favourites finished in the frame).  Out of interest, four figure dividends were also recorded in each of the previous two Lincoln day meetings.

‘Spring Mile’ scheduled for 2.05: Four-year-olds have secured eight renewals during the last decade during which time, just one favourite has obliged.  Eight winners were returned in double figures ranging is odds between 10/1 and 33/1.

‘Cammidge Trophy’ scheduled for 2.40: The last six winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst just one favourite has prevailed via the last eights contests.  A trio of three-year-olds were involved at the penultimate entry stage, though no junior winners have been recorded since Falcon Hill prevailed at 11/1 for Mark Johnston back in 2002.  That said, only five three-year-olds have subsequently contested the event.

‘Lincoln Handicap’ scheduled for 3.15: Roger Varian held two options at the time of writing and having saddled five of his ten runners at Doncaster to winning effect thus far, my ante post interest surrounds the relevant beast, namely Eton Forever, Roger’s only potential runner all week.  Willie Haggas has trained two of the last five winners whereby his only entry though to Saturday (Fury) could carry my cash as a saver.  Two of the last three favourites have prevailed (as have three of the last seven), whilst four market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the last decade.

Effect of the draw via the last eight renewals at Doncaster during the last decade:

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

The other two renewals were contested at Redcar and Newcastle whereby the effect of the draw is obviously not relevant.

‘Brocklesby’ event scheduled for 3.50: Just one (co) favourite has won this famous two-year-old event during the last decade, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as eight of the ten winners were returned at odds ranging between 5/2 and 9/1.  The other point to note is that Richard Fahey won with six of the first 16 two-year-olds he saddled last term yet having won this race twice in the last five years, Richard was not represented at the five-day stage.  Dare we suggest at this early stage that Richard’s juveniles are not quite as forward this time around?  We shall see.

 

Stratford:

General Stats: Warren Greatrex has saddled three of his eight runners at Stratford to winning effect. Phil Middleton (3/10) and Sarah Humphrey (3/11) are other trainers worth a second glance relating to their declarations.

 

Uttoxeter:

General Stats: Nicky Henderson will probably welcome the lack of attention relating to the NH code on Saturday though either way, his 14/50 record (28%) at Uttoxeter in recent seasons warrants plenty of respect.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 3.05: Philip Hobbs won the first two contests before saddling the bronze medallist twelve months ago in the third renewal.  Philip held two options at the penultimate stage.

Mares bumper scheduled for 5.15: Five-year-olds have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include two of the three winners at 16/1 and 8/1.  We still await the first successful favourite, whilst just one market leader has finished in the frame.

 

Kempton:

General Stats: Non handicap races have produced a decent ratio for favourites at the Sunbury circuit.  Favourites boast a 42% ratio in two-year-old events, whilst 41% of market leaders have won races confined to three-year-olds during the last five years.

Maiden fillies juvenile event scheduled for 2.55: Richard Hannon held two options at the five-day stage whilst Richard Fahey was potentially represented by his Pastoral Pursuits raider Woodland Mill.  Richard’s March foal is related to Here Now and Why who was beaten a length first time up before scoring on his next two starts.

‘Roseberry Handicap’ scheduled for 3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-3 via the last ten renewals of this famous Class 2 eleven furlong handicap event.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade, though three of the last four market leaders have finished in the frame from a toteplacepot perspective.

London Mile Qualifier--One mile handicap scheduled for 5.10: Mark Johnston was responsible for three of the seventeen five-day acceptors with Franny Norton on standby by to ride the trainer’s selected representative.

 

OVERVIEW OF DONCASTER ON SUNDAY 01/04:

You will have read about Richard Fahey’s record last year in Saturday’s general stats and it’s worth noting that all three of Richard’s winners were saddled on the second day of the meeting.  Richard also saddled winners at 6/1 and 5/1 on the second day of the meeting the previous year, whilst a 9/1 representative scored on Sunday 29th March 2009.

Five of last year’s market leaders on Sunday were beaten, the winners scoring at 15/8 (David Brown) and 100/30 (Mick Easterby). Beaten favourites were saddled by Barry Hills (2/1), Michael Bell (3/1), Richard Fahey (15/8), Tom Dascombe (5/2) and Mark Johnston 7/4.

Willie Haggas only held one entry all week through to Saturday but has three options on Town Moor on Sunday at the time of writing.

Sunday’s winners last year would have yielded a huge loss had they been followed for the rest of the season:

Jeer: Beaten on his next six starts until winning last time out.

King Of Jazz: Beaten on seven subsequent outings.

Lord Aeryn: Seven subsequent efforts without scoring.

King Of Eden: Won next time out before eight subsequent defeats.

Cracking Lass: Beaten on all three subsequent outings.

Barbican: Beaten in next three races before winning on four of his last five outings.

She’s A Character: Beaten in seven subsequent starts.

 

Toteplacepot dividends in the last three years relating to Sunday’s Doncaster results:

2011: £740.90

2010: 15,352.70 (just one favourite finished in the frame)

2009: 247.50

Average toteplacepot dividend during the last three years: £5,447.03

 

Class 2 Apprentice handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.20: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst two 5/1 favourites have obliged via the last three contests.  Four market leaders have finished in the frame since 2002 (eight renewals), stats which include three winners.  Richard Fahey has saddled a 6/1 winner and two placed horses at 16/1 and 13/2 in the last three years.  The standard of the winner has improved almost year on year as these official ratings confirm (2002-2011): 76-80-82-86-83-88-99-96.

Effect of the draw during the last decade (eight renewals):

4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)

2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)

2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)

1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)

15-11-6 (15 ran-good)

3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)

9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)

22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)

 

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Well I Declare: 20th March 2012

Well, I Declare!

Well, I Declare!

Good Morning Everyone and welcome to Mal Boyle's weekly racing preview, now in its new permanent slot of Tuesday mornings. There's generally more action on a Tuesday than a Sunday, so Mal has slightly adjusted his working week for us. Let's see what he's dug out for us this week:

TUESDAY 20/03:

Exeter:

General stats: Although both riders boast the same 22% strike rate at Exeter, this is one of the few venues in the land where Richard has ridden more winners than Tony McCoy.  Richard has ridden thirty seven winners at the venue compared to Tony’s twenty three, albeit via an additional sixty nine mounts.

2.30: Three of the six favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) to date, whilst sixteen of seventeen available toteplacepot places have been claimed by horses starting at 10/1 or less. Only one of the 35 horses starting at 11/1 or more has troubled the judge.

3.00: Philip Hobbs held just one entry (Marchand D’Argent) at the penultimate entry stage which is interesting, given that Philip has secured three of the seven renewals of this event.  Six of the last seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

3.30: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and a Paul Nicholls raider held every chance when coming down twelve months ago to bring successive victories to an end.

5.00: Six-year-olds have secured three of the four renewals thus far, whilst claiming six of the 12 available toteplacepot positions.  Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame (without winning).

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ralph Beckett boasts an LSP figure of over seventy points at Kempton via a 21% strike rate.  His Shamardal newcomer Finesse is Ralph’s only runner on the card, the filly having also held an entry later in the week.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Brian Ellison’s 24% strike rate at Southwell is only one per cent inferior to that of Mark Johnston and with a superior LSP figure of twenty eight compared to Mark’s five, anything Brian saddles at this venue on the level is worth a second glance.

 

WEDNESDAY 21/03:

Haydock:

General stats: Donald McCain has saddled nearly three times as many winners (34) than the next nearest handler (Sue Smith) relating to potentially represented yards at Haydock on Wednesday.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.40: Six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals.

Class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles scheduled for 3.50: Five-year-olds won the first three renewals before a vintage representative finished second in a short field contest twelve months ago.

Two and a half mile ‘Fixed Brush’ event scheduled for 4.55: Donald McCain has saddled all three winners to date with the trainer holding three options for this year’s event at the time of writing.

Five-year-old have secured five of the nine available toteplacepot positions in the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.15), stats which include two (28/1 & 5/2) of the three winners.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Rebecca Curtis (five hurdle winners--three chase--ratio of 7/11 in the bumper division) has saddled a third of her runners at Hereford to winning effect.  Rebecca only had five representatives in the early part of the week and every one of them was at this venue.

Conditional jockeys event scheduled for 2.30: Favourites have won both renewals thus far by an aggregate distance of seventeen lengths.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.40: Six-year-old favourites have secured both races thus far.

Class 5 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Seven-year-olds carrying 11-5 or more have won both renewals to date.

 

Warwick:

General stats: Alan King held seven options on the card at the weekend and as Alan has only saddled more winners at Huntingdon than at Warwick throughout the land, his runners at the track demand plenty of respect.  Alan has saddled nine more winners here than Nicky Henderson which tells you everything you need to know, whilst securing a positive LSP figure for good measure.

Two mile five furlong maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Six-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date with five-year-olds securing the other two contests thus far.

Class 4 two mile novice hurdle scheduled for 2.55: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via the last five contests.  The five favourites to have run date (last year’s marker leader was withdrawn at the start) have snared three gold and two silver medals, whilst five of the six winners were returned at odds of 9/4 or less.

Three mile five furlong handicap chase due to be contested at 3.30: The last five winners have carried weights of 11-4 or more.  Eight of the last nine jollies have been beaten (includes three pairs of joint favourites), albeit three market leaders have finished in the money during the period.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle due to be contested at 4.35: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-2 via just the six contests to date.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ron Harris had saddled fifteen winners in 2012 at the time of writing and with an LSP figure of nearly forty two points at the track during the last five years, his seven potential runners at the venue in the early part of the week are worth a second glance.

 

THURSDAY 22/03:

Carlisle:

General stats: Venetia Williams saddled twelve beaten runners during the Cheltenham Festival but her 33.3% strike rate here at Carlisle is worth consideration, especially as her team were going well before last week’s big meeting. Venetia saddled a winner at Sunday’s meeting at the venue via just two runners on the card.

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Chepstow:

General stats: Nick Williams and Vic Dartnall boast an combined LSP figure of thirty five points whilst offering similar respective 22% and 23% per strikes rate at the venue.

Novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.10: Three of then last four renewals have been won by favourites of one description or another.  Market leaders have accounted for four of the last six contests (top priced winner of 6/1 during the period) since a 200/1 chance scored in 2005!

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Six and seven-year-olds have equally shared the last four renewals of this contest between them.  Although only one favourite has scored via nine renewals since 2003, the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 10/1.

Two mile three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.45: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick having secured an aggregate winning distance of 24 lengths during the last two years.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled gold and silver medallists via just two renewals of the penultimate toteplacepot event on the card thus far and HUNTERS LODGE was Nigel’s only option at the penultimate entry stage.  Having saddled fourteen beaten horses at the Cheltenham Festival last week (just one silver medallist), Nigel will be keen to post some winners on the board.  Hunter’s Lodge held alternative engagements at Warwick on Wednesday and on Newbury’s card on Friday at the time of writing.

Five-year-olds have won the last four renewals of the closing bumper event which is was due to be contested at 5.25.


Fontwell:

General stats: Anthony Honeyball’s runners generally slipped under the radar in February as the trainer boasted 6/17 stats at the time.  With a Ffos Las winner saddled at the weekend adding to the tally, the yard could be on a roll again at a venue where the trainer has a strike rate of 29%.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Northern based trainer Tom Tate held two entries at Kempton this week and with the trainer offering a strike rate of 22% at the venue, Tom’s runners are worth noting.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Seven of the last eleven runners saddled by Mark Johnston had won when I checked the stats on Sunday and taking his 24% strike rate at Dunstall Park into account, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore his raiders.

 

FRIDAY 23/03:

Newbury:

General stats: Nick Williams continues to send his runners to Newbury to good effect, boasting a 26% strike rate in recent times.  That said, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are locked on 57 winners apiece in the last five years at the venue offering an aggregate strike rate of 22.9%.

Two mile five furlong maiden hurdle scheduled for 2.10: Six-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.

Class 2 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Philip Hobbs has won this event every other year since 2006 whereby his only penultimate stage entry TONY STAR warrants close inspection with the trend due to be extended this time around.  Tony Star just happens to be a five-year-old, vintage representatives having won five renewals of this event during the last decade.

Hunter chase contest due to be contested at 5.00: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick with three favourite having prevail via six renewals thus far.

A race for conditional and amateur riders scheduled for 5.30:  The last ten renewals have been won by horses returned at odds of 5/1 or less (six market leaders obliged during the study period).  Six-year-olds have won five of the last six contests, whilst nine winners during the last decade have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Four of James Ewart’s last five runners had finished ‘in the three’ at the time of writing whereby his 27% strike rate (3/11) at Sedgefield should be taken into consideration if he offers the green light to Frontier Boy who is scheduled to contest the 4.35 event on Friday.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: It should be noted that at the time of writing when not too many jockey bookings for the meeting had been ‘confirmed’, Hayley Turner’s name was amongst them, the jockey having ridden no less than sixty seven winners at this venue alone.  And still some people suggest there is no place in the sport for lady riders! Hayley rode 322 winners (plus plenty more abroad) in four years between 2008 and 2011 whereby such people need to rethink their strategy when assessing jockey bookings.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Comments about the horses saddled by Mark Johnston at Wolverhampton earlier in the analysis should be taken into account, whilst John Gosden’s strike rate of 22% at the venue is worth noting.  John had saddled ten of his twenty six runners in 2012 to winning effect when his stats were last perused.

 

SATURDAY 24/03:

Bangor:

General stats: Dr Richard Newland had a couple of raiders pencilled in at Bangor and having recorded figures of 3/11 at the Welsh venue to date, Richard’s representatives are worth keeping on the right side when the trainer offers his inmates the green light.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.50: Five-year-olds have won five contests during the last decade, whilst favourites have secured five of the last eight contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at odds of 8/1.

Class 3 two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Eight renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won though that said, bookmakers have not had things going all their won way as the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 8/1.  The last six winners have scored at 4/1 or less.  Eight-year-olds carrying weights of 10-11 or more have won three of the last five renewals.

Three mile handicap hurdle event due to be contested at 4.25: We still await the first successful market leader following seven renewals.  Just one of the last four favourites has secured a toteplacepot position.

Class 5 seventeen furlong handicap chase scheduled for 5.00: Favourites come to the gig on a  four-timer.

 

Kelso:

General stats: Lucinda Russell saddled her biggest winner to date at the Cheltenham Festival which was a well deserved reward for her consistent form in the training ranks.  Lucinda has saddled more winners (26) than the other potentially represented handlers at the track on Saturday which is a fine testimony to her ability. 

Seventeen furlong Class 3 handicap chase event scheduled for 3.30: We still await the first successful favourite following four renewals during which time, just one market leader has finished in the frame.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Oliver Sherwood’s recent Exeter winner Florafern was the trainer’s only potential runner on the card earlier in the week, Oliver boasting stats of 8/40 during the last five years.  That said, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are locked on 57 winners apiece in the last five years at the venue offering an aggregate strike rate of 22.9%.

Juvenile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 1.30: Only one favourite has obliged via nine renewals since 2003.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.10: Four of the last eight favourites have obliged during which time, six winners have been returned at odds of 3/1 or less.

Seventeen furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.15: The first four favourites (via three renewals) all finished out of the frame, though market leaders of one description or another have won the last three contests.

Nicky Henderson held two options for the ‘junior bumper’ finale scheduled for 4.50.  Nicky has won two of the last three renewals.

 

Stratford:

General stats: Dr Darcey was John Berry’s only potential runner at the course on Saturday, John having saddled four of his ten runners at the track to success in recent years.  Charlie Longsdon is another trainer whose runners deserves plenty of respect at the venue.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.45: Favourites have won all four renewals, the races having been equally shared by eight and nine-year-olds thus far.

Two mile seven furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: All four favourites have finished out with the washing.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Tom Dascombe, Keith Dalgleish and David Barron are just three of many trainers who have raiders pencilled in for Saturday who target Lingfield to decent effect.

 

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Well I Declare: 13th March 2012

Well, I Declare! by Malcolm Boyle

Well, I Declare! by Malcolm Boyle

Hi everyone, do not adjust your calendars: we know it's only Tuesday!
But, as it's Cheltenham time: Mal has brought his weekly "Well, I Declare" feature forward to take in the whole of the festival in addition to the usual rundown of all the other meetings.
So, without further idle chatter: let's see what the maestro has for us this week:
TUESDAY 13/03: 

Cheltenham:

1.30--‘Supreme Novices‘: Alan King’s only runner in the last six years was Medermit who was narrowly beaten in the race three years ago.  Alan had previously saddled My Way de Solzen in the contest who went on to win the World Hurdle and the ‘Arkle’ at the festival.  Alan is represented by Montbazon who has done little wrong to date.  Just three of the last eighteen favourites (sixteen year period) have won.  Six-year-olds lead the five-year-old 7-5 via the last sixteen contests.

2.05--‘Arkle’: Only six of the last sixteen favourites have finished in the frame, stats which include just two favourites.  Paul Nicholls has saddled nineteen runners via the last thirteen renewals of the Arkle, snaring two gold medals and a total of five toteplacepot ‘successes’ in the process.  Paul saddles Al Ferof on this occasion, though Sprinter Scare won in facile fashion at Newbury last time but still recorded a sensational time in doing so.

2.40--Grade 3 Handicap Chase over 3 miles:  Just one favourite has obliged via twenty representatives during the last sixteen years during which time, seven gold medallists have emerged via the front three horses in the betting.  Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried 10-12 or less.

3.20--Champion Hurdle: Hurricane Fly has recorded seven successive Grade 1 victories though six and seven-year-olds have held sway during the study period.  Hurricane Fly is an eight-year-old, the vintage recording just five toteplacepot successes (three winners during the last sixteen contests) in the race via five thirty-five representatives (14.3%).  Six and seven-year-olds have won eleven contests between them by comparison, notwithstanding an additional eighteen horses to have finished in the frame (33.4% toteplacepot record).

4.00--Cross Country: The unique cross country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer in each of the seven years to date, whilst favourites have won two of the seven contests to date (five of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame).  Six of the seven winners emerged from the front three in the betting.

4.40--‘David Nicholson Mares’: QUEVEGA is fast becoming the queen of Prestbury Park and but for Big Buck’s hogging the limelight in recent years, the eight-year-old mare would have been the star of several shows.  Having won the race in each of the last three years, it seems that nothing can stop the popular mare from recording another facile success.  WHAT A CHARM won the ‘Fred Winter’ on her only previous Cheltenham assignment whereby the five-year-old could reach the frame at rewarding odds.  The four favourites have snared three gold and one bronze medal to date.

5.15--Listed Novice Handicap Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the seven contests thus far during which time, just one (9/2) favourite has prevailed.

 

Sedgefield: 

General stats: George Bewley has saddled two of his six runners to winning effect at Sedgefield and course and distance winner Teerie Express is the only stable representative on the card

1.45: Although only one favourite has scored to date, the biggest priced winner via five renewals to date was returned at just 3/1.

2.20: Four favourites have prevailed via five contests, with five of the six market leaders securing toteplacepot positions.

3.35: Six-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals, with vintage representatives coming into the contest on a five timer.

4.15: We still await the first successful market leader following five renewals.  Only one favourite has secured a toteplacepot position thus far.

5.25: Four-year-olds have won three of the five renewals to date.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Cloudy Start is Jamie Osborne’s only runner on the card and having saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, Jamie can build on his 24% strike rate at the venue in recent times.

 

WEDNESDAY 14/03: 

Cheltenham: 

1.30--4 mile NH Chase: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests whilst just two favourites have prevailed in the last seventeen years.  Horses in the first three in the betting have a poor record in the race.  Fifty one relevant horses have lined up during the study period producing just five winners and nine place positions, leaving thirty-seven representatives finishing out with the washing.

2.05--2 mile 5 furlong Grade 1 ‘Baring Bingham’: Five and six-year-olds have secured fifteen of the last seventeen renewals of this event, securing an additional twenty-nine toteplacepot positions for good measure.  Five favourites have won during the period though the figure only extends to eight when taking the first three market leaders into account.

2.40--RSA Chase: Seven-year-olds rule supreme in the ‘Sun Alliance’ having won twelve of the last seventeen contests.  Vintage representative has secured an additional fifteen toteplacepot positions down the years for good measure.  Only four favourites have won during the study period and just seven when extending the stats by taking the first three horses in the betting into account in the relevant races.

3.20--Queen Mother Champion Chase: Nine of the last twelve winners of the ‘Queen Mother’ have emerged from the front three horses in the betting, whilst five favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals.

4.00--Coral Cup: Nine of the last eleven winners of the Coral Cup have carried weights of eleven stones or less whilst just one favourite has scored since 1993.  Only four winners have emerged during the period from the front three horses in the market.

4.40--’Fred Winter’: Two favourites have won via just seven renewals, though readers should be aware that other gold medallists have prevailed at odds of 40/1--20/1--14/1--11/1--9/1.  Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4.

5.15--’Championship Bumper’: Six renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being registered.  Cue Card stamped himself as a decent horse when winning this event as a four-year-old two years ago as five and six-year-olds tend to dominate the contest.  Five-year-olds have particularly held the edge of late, vintage representatives having secured six victories during the last decade.

 

Huntingdon: 

General stats: Venetia Williams boasts the highest LSP figure (forty-five points) of the potentially represented trainers at Huntingdon on Wednesday.  Nicky Henderson also had entries at the venue at the time of writing and having saddled more winners at the track (39--next best is Alan King on 33) than any of the other handlers due to be represented, his inmates demand plenty of respect.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled to be contested at 2.55: Just one favourite has scored via seven renewals.  Other gold medallists were sent off at 25/1--20/1--16/1--10/1--8/1--7/2.  Three of the seven marker leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  It’s worth noting that the toteplacepot pools for the other meetings during Cheltenham Festival week also take a hike if you are interested in the wager.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.35: Six-year-olds have secured three of the four contests.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Eight of the last nine winners carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst the same number of gold medallists started at odds of 5/1 or less (two winning favourites).

Four-year-olds come into the closing bumper event (scheduled for 5.30) on a four timer.  Only one of the last five favourites have prevailed, the other winners being returned at 100/1--22/1--5/1--4/1 in recent years.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Richard Hannon is just two short of a century of winners at Kempton in the last five years and with the flat season (proper) just around the corner, Richard will be taking life more seriously from here on in. If Hannon decides to let either of his potential runners loose at Kempton on Wednesday, they deserve a second glance at the very least.

 

Southwell:

General stats: David Nicholls boast an incredible 157 LSP figure at Southwell in recent years whereby either of his runners should be kept on the right side if offered the green light by the trainer.  

 

THURSDAY 15/03: 

Cheltenham:

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1.30--’Jewson’ Novice Chase: For the record, the first three horses in the betting dominated last year’s event (favourite finished second) in a race which has been changed around via terms and conditions.

2.05--‘Pertemps Final’: The last eight favourites have been beaten with just one market leader finishing in the frame.  Going back further in time, only one favourite has prevailed during the last fifteen years, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists carried weights of 10-9 or less as have twenty-three of the thirty-two horses to have secured toteplacepot positions during  the period.  Only one five-year-old winner has been recorded in the last thirty-seven years.

2.40--Ryanair Chase: Albertas Run potentially comes to the gig on a hat trick for Jonjo O’Neill having scored at 14/1 and 6/1 on good ground on both occasions.  Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via seven contests though that said, six of the winners scored at odds of 6/1 or less. Paul Nicholls is the other trainer to have won the race on two occasions.

3.20--World Hurdle: Seven favourites have won via the last seventeen contests during which time, twelve gold medallists emerged from the front three horses in the betting.  Big Bucks has won his last fifteen races since beaten in the Hennessy Gold Cup, stats which include the last three renewals of this prestigious event.  The biggest priced winner during the last decade was returned at 8/1.

4.00--Grade 3 Byrne Group Plate: Always remembered as the ‘Mildmay of Flete’ by old-timers, Majadou was the last recorded winning favourite for Martin Pipe back in 1999.  No other market leader has prevailed during the last twenty-nine years!   Although eight-year-olds have ‘only’ won four of the last thirteen renewals, vintage representatives have secured twenty-one of the last thirty-nine available toteplacepot positions.

4.40--’Kim Muir’ Chase: Nine-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen contests whilst claiming nineteen of the last available forty-four toteplacepot positions.  Eleven of the last fourteen renewals have been secured by horses carrying 10-13 or more, as have thirty of the last forty-three available toteplacepot positions.

 

Hexham: 

General stats: Maurice Barnes has just one horse entered all week whereby Overpriced (due to contest the 1.45 event) is of each way interest.  Maurice boasts an LSP figure of 132 points for the record!

Class 4 novice hurdle event due to be contested at 2.55: Three of the four market leaders have prevailed (5/6--5/6--10/11), the other market leader having been beaten ‘three parts’ at odds of 11/8 two years ago.

Four mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Just one favourite has obliged via the last nine renewals during which time, horses carrying weights of 11-2 or less have secured eight contests.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.15: Six of the last nine contests have been secured by market leaders, with seven-year-olds leading the eight-year-olds 4-3 during the period.  The last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-2.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: The last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of eleven stones.

 

Towcester:

General stats: King Fingal (potential runner in the 3.05 event) represents John Quinn who has saddled three of his five runners at Towcester to winning effect.

Two mile five furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 1.55: Six-year-olds have secured five of the six contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 (three successful market leaders).

Three mile handicap chase due to be contested at 2.30: Two clear and two joint favourites have prevailed via six renewals.

Class 4 two-mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick having secured three of the last five contests.  We still await the first successful market leader following six renewals, though three of the last four favourites secured toteplacepot positions.

Closing conditional jockeys event scheduled for 5.35: The last four winners have scored at 16/1--14/1--12/1--15/2 following the successful inaugural (5/4) market leader back in 2004.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Joe Fanning is riding as well as ever whereby the jockey had forty ‘booked’ rides for the week at the time of writing.  Stable jockeys to Mark Johnston invariably have a great number of double bookings, such is Mark’s thirst for winners but with Joe boasting an LSP figure of over sixty points at Wolverhampton, we have to take all of his eventual mounts seriously.

 

FRIDAY 16/03: 

Cheltenham:

1.30--Triumph Hurdle: Four of the last thirteen favourites have obliged which not a bad record considering the competitive nature of this opening event.  Eight market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.

2.05--County Hurdle: Although backed up by only three placed representatives in the last twelve contests, five-year-olds have won this competitive event no less than eight times during the period.  Forty of the last forty-nine winners hailed from the five and six-year-old vintages which should sway you towards younger horses in the contest.  Horses carrying a maximum weight of eleven stones have won ten of the last thirteen renewals.

2.40--’Albert Bartlett’: Favourites have won three of the seven renewals whilst market leaders have secured six toteplacepot positions.  Six and seven-year-old have (equally) shared six renewals to date.  It’s worth noting that Willie Mullins held eight entries at the time of writing, despite the inclusion of the 7/4 ante post favourite Boston Bob.

3.20--Cheltenham Gold Cup: Six of the last nine market leaders have won the ‘Blue Riband’ with Kauto Star being a beaten favourite on two occasions.  Seven of the nine favourites finished in the frame.  Midnight Chase is (arguably) the best jumper of a fence in this year’s field and if allowed to dominate up front, a surprise result could be on the cards, especially as this is Neil Mulholland’s only entry for Cheltenham this week despite the yard being in great form.

4.00--Foxhunters Chase: Three market leaders have won via the last thirteen contests, the figure increasing to six during the period when taking the first three horses in the betting into account.  Four of the last six winners have scored at 33/1 (twice) and 20/1 (twice).

4.40--’Martin Pipe’ Conditionals: Two of the three favourites have finished in the money to date (one winner).

5.15--’Grand Annual’: First and foremost let me say, that Toubab (backed at 16/1) is my ‘get out of jail free card’ in the closing event of the Cheltenham Festival 2012.  Seven renewals have slipped by since Paul Nicholls saddled St Pirran to win at 4/1 back in 2004 (the last successful favourite) whereby if Paul scores with Toubab at around the same price, a profit during the festival will have been secured.  Upwards and onwards by declaring that every winner during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 10-13, whilst seven gold medallists carried 10-7 or less, the exact mark of Toubab at the time of writing.

 

Fakenham: 

General stats: Sam Thomas is the jockey to home in on at Fakenham on Friday for more than one reason.  Sam boasts a strike rate of 41% at the track in recent times, whilst potentially riding away from Cheltenham, the scene of his greatest triumph to date when booting home Denman to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup on this day four years ago.  How times change.

Three mile beginners’ chase event scheduled for 2.55: Favourites have won five of the eight contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/2.

Two mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.35: Eight of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst six market leaders have obliged.  Favourites come into the contest on a hat trick with the biggest priced winner during the last decade having scored at just 13/2.

Foxhunters event due to be contested at 4.15: Four favourites have prevailed via the last nine contests, eight winners of which started at 9/2 or less.  Nine-year-olds have secured three of the last four renewals.

Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.55: Six-year-olds have won four of the last five (and six of the last ten) contests.  Four favourites have obliged in the last nine years.

Closing conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 5.10: Last year’s 9/4 second favourite ended a run of four successive victories in another event at Fakenham that layers will want to forget.  The ‘away bookmakers’ must have registered superior ‘ledgers’ than those betting on the Fakenham card, as highlighted by the fact that the biggest priced winner in this event via the last ten contests was returned at just 4/1.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Tom Dascombe had saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect at the time of writing and the trainer held one entry at Lingfield on Friday.  Juno The Muffinman was due to represent the stable in the scheduled 5.40 contest at a venue where Tom boasts a 27% strike rate which is backed up by an LSP figure of sixty-six points. 

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Silver Native (scheduled to contest the 6.20 contest) was Keiran O’Neill’s only booked ride at the meeting at the time of writing, the underrated jockey boasting an 18% strike rate which equals the figure of Joe Fanning at the track which is a fact worth flagging up.  

 

SATURDAY 17/03: 

Ffos Las: 

General stats: Lawney Hill boasts a 60% record at the track (3/5) whilst Nicky Henderson’s 37% strike rate takes some beating given the number of runners he saddled at racecourses all over the country. Nicky’ stats at Ffos Las stands at 16/43.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Jim Best (5/16 at the venue) potentially saddles his Towcester winner Western High in the scheduled 1.45 contest.

 

Newcastle:

General stats: David O’Meara has ‘recently’ turned his attention to the NH sector of the sport to decent effect.  David held three options for Saturday’s card at Newcastle where the trainer has saddled three of his twelve runners to winning effect.

 

Uttoxeter: 

General stats: Omaruru potentially represents Renee Robeson who boasts an LSP figure of sixty-six points at Gosforth Park via a 24% strike rate (11/45).

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.10: We still await the first winning favourite following five renewals.  The gold medallists have scored at 28/1--20/1--14/1--9/1--5/1 thus far.

Eight of the last nine winners of the Midlands Grand National (scheduled to be contested at 3.20) have carried weights of 10-9 or less.  Just one favourite has prevailed during the study period.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.55: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 4-3 via the last nine contests.  Six renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was registered.

Four and five-year-old have (equally) shared the six renewals of the closing bumper event during which time, two favourites have obliged.  The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 7/1, whilst Alan King has saddled two of the last three winners. Alan held two options (newcomers) earlier in the week.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Michael Bell’s 24 winners at Wolverhampton include fourteen three-year-old raiders, one of which (Bridgehampton) is due to make his seasonal debut in the scheduled 8.50 event.

 

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Well I Declare: 7th March 2012

Well I Declare: 7/3/12

Well I Declare: 7/3/12

Hello again, we've just received Mal's latest weekly racing preview featuring everything you need to know about the upcoming fixtures.
So, without further ado, let's take a look at what he's got for us this week.

WEDNESDAY 07/03: 

Catterick: 

General stats: Keith Reveley (16/83 ratio during the last five years) boasts a level profit strike rate of nearly sixty four points at Catterick whereby his four runners at the venue are worth a second glance)

2.20: The last ten winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less, stats which include five successful favourites.  The last nine winners carried weights of 11-2 or less.

2.50: Nine renewals have slipped by since a winning favourite was recorded though the biggest priced winner in five of the last six contests was returned at 11/2.

3.20: The first two (odds on) favourites obliged before last year's 7/2 market leader could only finished sixth of fourteen.

3.50: Seven of the last nine winners have obliged at 5/1 or less, stats which include four successful market leaders.

4.20: Only one favourite has prevailed in the last nine years during which time, six winners have scored at odds ranging between 10/1 and 33/1.  Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more.

4.50: Just one market leader has scored during the last decade which is a very unusual statistic in Hunter Chase events.  Just two of the last nine favourites have finished in the frame to add insult to injury for toteplacepot enthusiasts who include well fancied horses.

5.20: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals of the finale with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion.  Four favourites have obliged via six renewals.

 

Fontwell: 

General stats: Puffin Billy (5.00) is Oliver Sherwood’s only potential runner at Fontwell this afternoon.  Oliver boasts an LSP figure of over seventy one points via a 23% strike rate at the venue.  

2.00: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners).

2.30: Four of the six market leaders have reached the frame whilst favourites come to the gig on a four-timer this time around.

3.00: Six-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals to date, whilst snaring eight of the available sixteen toteplacepot positions.  All seven favourites have been beaten to date albeit the biggest priced winner of this event was returned at just 13/2.  Four of the seven market leaders finished in the frame this far.

3.30: Seven and eight-year-olds have shared eight of the 10 renewals to date, though just one runner represents the two vintages on this occasion (Rigadin De Beauchene).  Ten of the eleven winners have scored at 9/1 or less (the other contest was secured by a 12/1 chance) whilst four favourites have obliged to date. Six of the eleven jollies have finished in the frame.

5.00: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via five contests during which time, two market leaders have prevailed.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Royal Etiquette is Lawney Hill’s only runner at Kempton tonight.  Lawney has saddled two of her eight runners at the venue to winning effect to date.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: South Yorkshire based trainer David Griffiths saddles two runners on this afternoon’s card, David having saddled five winners at the venue via just seventeen representatives.

 

THURSDAY 08/03: 

Carlisle:

General stats: Alan Mactaggart has saddled four of his twelve runners at the venue to winning effect and Royal Mackintosh (scheduled to contest the 4.20 contest) was Alan’s only potential representative all week at the time of writing.

‘Hands and Heels’ event scheduled for 2.10: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 whilst one favourite has scored via four renewals.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: Six-year-olds have won five of the last six contests during which time, two market leaders have obliged alongside one joint favourite.  All seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Three and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 4.20: Sue Smith has won three of the last four races in which she was represented and the trainer held two options for the contest at the weekend.  Only one favourite has scored via eight renewals, with the other winners ranging in odds between 7/2 and 25/1.  The last three winners were returned at 25/1--12/1--12/1.

Class 5 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests whilst two favourites have won via eight contests.  Six of the last seven winners carried a minimum burden of 10-13.

Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around, vintage representatives have secured five of the seven renewals to date.  Just one (joint) favourite has won during the last five years during which time, the other winners scored at 50/1--40/1--13/2--6/1.

 

Wincanton: 

General stats: Red Rock (scheduled to contest the 4.40 event) was Emma Lavelle’s only potential runner on the card, with Emma boasting the best LSP figure (fourteen points) of the represented trainers at the track on Thursday.  

Class 4 two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.00: Twelve of the last thirteen winners carried weights of 11-5 or less, whilst only one favourite has won this event during the last eleven years.  Six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions though that said, ‘only’ three of the gold medallists were returned in double figures during the study period.

Class 3 novice chase event scheduled for 3.35: All four favourites have finished out of the frame though in all fairness, three of the contests were ‘win only’ events.

Class 4 two mile maiden hurdle scheduled for 5.10: Five favourites have won the scheduled finale during the last decade.  Nine of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

Southwell:

General stats: David Barron holds two entries on Thursday and with an incredible 120 points of level stake profits at the track in recent years, anything that David saddles at Southwell is worth keeping on the right side, especially given his 24% strike rate.

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: With Wolverhampton’s big three day meeting starting on Thursday, it’s as well to point out that Joe Fanning is the jockey to follow at the track in general terms, especially given his sixty six point LSP figure.

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FRIDAY 09/03: 

Ayr: 

General stats: Donald McCain is setting the standard of late at all venues but his 29% strike rate at Ayr demands attention, especially given his LSP figure of fifteen points.  Ann Hamilton is the other trainer to mention in despatches, as Ann has saddled four of her seven runners at the venue to winning effect.

 

Leicester: 

General stats: Bradley (scheduled to contest the 3.40 event) was Fergal O’Brien’s only runner on the card, the trainer having won with both representatives at Leicester thus far.

 

Sandown: 

General stats: Red Harbour was due to contest the Grand Military Gold Cup earlier in the week, with the relevant Staddon yard having won with two of their three runners at the course.

Grand Military Gold Cup scheduled for 3.30: Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2.

Class 4 novice hurdle event scheduled for 5.15: Nicky Henderson has saddled four of the last nine winners during which time, the same number of favourites obliged.

 

Wincanton: 

General stats: Note Thursday’s comment about Emma Lavelle who just had Silver Footnote engaged at the venue on Friday at the time of writing.

Two and three quarter mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.00: Five-year-olds have won all three renewals with two favourites finishing in the frame (one winner).

Two and three quarter mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.35: The previous nine favourites had all been beaten before last year's 5/4 market leader came to the aid of punters.

Three mile three furlong handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Eight and nine year-olds have secured six of the seven available toteplacepot positions whilst winning all three events between them thus far.  Charlie Mann is the only trainer to have won this race who had (two) potential runners in the contest this year, Charlie's options at the time of writing were Tarquinius and the inaugural 2009 winner Rebel Melody.

Two and a half mile novice hurdle scheduled for 3.45: Odds on favourites have won all three renewals thus far.

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.20: The last seven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst just one favourite has prevailed during the last decade.  It's not been all bad news for punters however, as the last eight contests have produced a biggest priced winner of just 8/1, with five gold medallists have scored at odds of 4/1 or less during the period.

Hunter Chase event scheduled for 4.55: Market leaders have secured four of the seven renewals of this Hunter Chase event, with a biggest priced winner emerging at just 15/2 three years ago. The other six winners scored at odds ranging between 4/5 and 7/2.

Closing bumper scheduled for 5.30: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last seven contests with vintage representatives coming into this year's finale on a five-timer.  Favourites have won two of the nine renewals with eight winners scoring at odds of 6/1 or less. Local trainer Paul Nicholls held two options earlier in the week in a race in which he has saddled two of the last seven winners.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jonjo O’Neill has entered Dream Catcher in two races on the card and with the trainer having saddled five winners via twenty runners at Dunstall Park, Dream Catcher might be worth an interest if/when Jonjo offers the green light to the nine-year-old.

 

SATURDAY 10/03: 

Ayr: 

General stats: Kim Bailey has won with two of the three runners he has saddled at Ayr in recent times, stats which should also be taken into account for Friday’s meeting.

 

Chepstow: 

General stats: Unusually, Chepstow favourites have a far better record in novice chase events (46%) than in novice hurdle (34%) contests.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Paul Nicholls boasts an LSP figure of nineteen points via a 31% strike rate at Sandown.

Grade 3 novice handicap hurdle finale scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests, whilst just one favourite prevailed during the study period.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.40: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last seven renewals.

‘Imperial Cup’ scheduled for 3.15: Favourites have prevailed six times during the last decade which is a phenomenal record given the usual competitive nature of the contest.  David Pipe’s lone entry Master Of Arts catches the eye at the time of writing, especially as ‘Team Pipe’ have landed five of the last ten renewals.

Listed mares bumper event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first successful market leader following eight contests.

Two mile novice chase scheduled for 4.25: The 7/2 winner twelve months ago brought an end to a run of seven successive victories for favourites in this event.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda’s horses invariably warrant plenty of respect at the track given his thirty point LSP reading at the venue, notwithstanding a strike rate of 33%.

Listed seven furlong event scheduled for 2.20: Just one (co) favourite has scored via five renewals thus far though the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1 whereby bookmaker's have not had things going all their own way.  Twenty three four and five-year-olds have tried and failed to win the race to date.

Class 4 seven furlongs handicap event scheduled for 2.55: Mark Johnston saddled last year's 6/1 (following the success of the first two favourites in the race) and Mark was obviously intent on securing back to back winners as he was responsible for four of the eighteen penultimate stage entries.

‘Lincoln Trial’ scheduled for 3.30: The Lincoln Trial emerges from the bleak mid winter to offer readers hope for the forthcoming spring on the eve of the Cheltenham Festival whereby life is not all bad by any means.  Upwards and onwards in positive mode by passing on news that the last five winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more whilst the last double figure winner scored at 16/1 back in 2003.

Class 5 maiden event scheduled for 4.05: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date, stats which include two winners.

Six furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for 5.15:  Last year's 8/1 winner stopped a sequence of five successive winning favourites of one description or another.

Just one market leader has secured the (fourteen furlong handicap) alongside winners returned at 20/1--16/1--15/2--7/1 in the finale schedule to be contested at 5.45.

 

SUNDAY 11/03: 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Nicky Henderson rules supreme at the Lincolnshire venue via a 34% strike rate.

Conditional jockey‘s handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: We still await the first successful favourite to be recorded following four contests, the gold medallists having been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1.  All four winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 11-1.

Nineteen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.50: Last year's 80/1 shook punters following the previous victories (one successful favourite) of horses returned at 1/2--5/2--4/1.

Two and three quarter mile handicap chase scheduled 3.20: The last six winners (three successful market leaders) have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less, as have seven of the eight gold medallists in total.  The last half dozen scorers have been burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2.

Two and a half mile novice chase event scheduled for 3.50: We still await the first successful favourite with the four winners having produced a top priced winner 13/2 thus far.  All four gold medallists have carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.25: Only one favourite has obliged via the last eight contests whilst the toteplacepot enthusiasts among you might like to learn that the last three market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Seventeen furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 4.55: Last year's 4/9 favourite came as a welcome relief to punters as three of the previous four winners had scored at 40/1--28/1--13/2.  Five-year-olds have secured eight of the last eleven available toteplacepot positions, stats which include three (28/1--13/2--2/1) winners.

Two and a quarter mile handicap chase event scheduled for 5.25: Eight-year-olds lead the nine-year-olds 3-2 via just the five renewals to date during which time, one (4/7) favourite prevailed.  The last four winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

 

Warwick: 

General stats: Ferdy Murphy has only saddled six runners at Warwick under the NH code which have produced two winners for the trainer.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.05: Three favourites have won during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1.

Mares novice chase event scheduled for 2.35: Three of the four favourites have prevailed whilst the other gold medallist scored at just 2/1.

Three mile five furlong handicap chase scheduled for 4.05: Just one favourite has obliged via the last eight renewals.

Conditional jockey’s event scheduled for 4.40: Six of the last nine contests have been secured by market leaders.

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.

Well I Declare 29th February 2012

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature.

Mal Boyle's weekly "Well, I Declare!" feature.

Hi everyone, it's Wednesday already! This means it's time for us to share the thoughts of Malcolm Boyle after he has ploughed through the next five days' racecards looking for that snippet of information that could help us find those elusive winners. He's got all the details of 18 meetings spread across the 5 days, so there's plenty to go: let's get on with it!

WEDNESDAY 29/02: 

Bangor:

General stats: Fergal O’Brien saddles two horses at Bangor today, boasting a 67% strike rate at the track via two winners.  Queen Of Mantua (2.20) and Bagsy’s Bridge (4.55) can be given chances accordingly.

2.20: Five-year-olds have secured four of the last five renewals whilst six-year-olds have won the other four races during the last eight years.  Just one favourite has prevailed in the last seven years during the which time, gold medallists have emerged at 33/1--28/1--10/1.  Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the last five winners and the trainer held just one option (Native Beauty) at the penultimate entry stage.

4.25: The last three favourites (from four in total) have obliged, whilst three seven-year-old winners have emerged.

 

Folkestone: 

General stats: Warren Greatrex (7/18), Alan Hill (4/6) and Gary Brown (2/4) all boast decent records at Kent’s lone venue.

3.15: Eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, whilst five of twelve favourites to date have reached the frame, stats which include two winners.

3.45: Just one favourite has prevailed via eleven renewals, whilst eight of the 10 beaten market leaders failed to even reach the frame.  Seven of the last nine winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-10/1-9/1.

4.45: Eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions down the years.  Ten winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less whilst last year’s second placed favourite was attempting to land a four-timer for market leaders.

 

Kempton: 

General stats: Strawberrymystique (7.55) is Marco Botti’s only raider on the card, the trainer’s Kempton LSP figure standing at fifty-nine points at the time of writing.  Marco’s last two runners have won for good measure.

 

Southwell (NH):

General stats: James Reveley has three half decent rides on the card, the pilot boasting a current 35% strike rate at the track. Charlie Mann’s strike rate stands at 32% having saddled twelve of his thirty-eight runners to winning effect during the last five years.

 

THURSDAY 01/03: 

Ludlow: 

General stats: Theatre Diva potentially represents trainer Jackie Du Plessis in the scheduled 4.00 event, the trainer boasting stats of ¾ at the venue.  Barry Geraghty has ridden twelve winners at the track via just thirty opportunities recording a strike rate of 40%. 

Two mile novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.30: Five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals during which time, three favourites have obliged.  Six of the last seven winners have been returned at odds of 13/2 or less.

Two and a half mile novice chase contest scheduled for 3.00: Seven-year-olds have won all three renewals to date in a race where the favourite has yet to oblige.

Three mile handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.30: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame via four renewals during which time, one market leader has prevailed. Three of the four winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of 11-5.

Three mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.00: Eight-year-olds come into the contest on a five-timer, vintage representatives having won six of the last nine contests.  Six favourites have won during the study period whilst the last five gold medallists were returned at odds of 11/2 or less.

Three mile hunter chase contest scheduled for 5.00: We still await the first successful market leader following four renewals which is an unusual scenario in this sector of the sport.

 

Taunton: 

General stats: Robin Dickin’s consistent Roxanne Bruere was Robin’s only possible runner on the card earlier in the week at a track where the trainer has saddled three winners via just eleven runners during the last five years.  Denis Regan rides this track as well as anyone and the jockey has been in particularly brilliant form of late.  On a more general note, Paul Nicholls tends to mop up races when his horses are well fancied. 

Two mile three furlong novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.40: The last nine winners have scored at 6/1 or less, stats which include three winning favourites.  All nine winners carried weights of 11-1 or more.

Class 4 handicap chase scheduled for 3.10: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, with vintage representative having secured six of the last nine renewals.  The biggest priced winner during the study period was an 8/1 chance, whilst three of the last four market leaders have prevailed.

 

Southwell:

General stats: Jimmy Fortune is a rare visitor to Southwell, though his 8/17 stats suggest that you treat his mounts with great respect at the venue. 

 

Kempton:

General stats: The Catenian (6.20) is an interesting each way option given his ‘trap one’ position, notwithstanding that the Hawk Wing gelding sports a visor for the first, hailing from John Brown’s stable which boasts 2/5 stats at Kempton.  For good measure, it’s worth noting that John’s last two runners have scored.  

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FRIDAY 02/03: 

Doncaster: 

General stats: James Ewart (31%) and Tony Carroll (25%) do well with their raiders on Town Moore whilst of the trainer who saddle far more runners, Nicky Henderson is the handler to home in on boasting a 25% strike rate via eighty representatives of late.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 4.15: Five and six-year-olds have equally shared six of the last seven renewals, whilst last years beaten favourite was beaten when attempting a five-timer for market leaders.

 

Newbury: 

General stats: Four of the last nine runners saddled by Tom George have obliged and with the trainer boasting an LSP figure of thirty-three points (20% strike rate), Tom’s runners at the two-day meeting are entitled to plenty of respect.  Bathwick Brave is not the brightest light in David Pipe’s stable but Johnny Farelly was already booked aboard this morning and having ridden three of his twelve mounts to winning effect at Newbury, a win and place investment might produce a profit.

NH novice hurdle event scheduled for 2.20: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-4 via the last nine renewals.

Two and three-quarter mile novice handicap chase scheduled for 3.30: Seven and eight-year-olds have equally shared the last four contests, vintage representatives having secured eight renewals between them during the last decade.

Class 4 handicap hurdle contest scheduled for 4.00: No winning favourites have been recorded during the last ten years.

 

Lingfield: 

General stats: Keith Dalgleish has five options at Lingfield in the foreseeable future and with stats of 3/8 at the track, Keith’s runners should be kept on the right side.

 

Wolverhampton: 

General stats: Luke Rowe is a promising young pilot who has ridden two winners at Dunstall Park from seven opportunities, recording an LSP figure of sixteen points into the bargain.  Luke was already jocked aboard Minortransgression (scheduled to contest the 5.20 event) earlier in the week.

 

SATURDAY 03/03: 

Doncaster: 

General stats: Lee Edwards is an underrated pilot in my book as his 3/9 stats on Town Moor confirms in recent times.

Three mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.20: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Three and a quarter-mile handicap chase scheduled for 2.55: Six of the last eight winners have carried weights of 10-10 or less.

Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 4.25: We still await the first winning favourite following four contests.

Two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 5.10: Six renewals have slipped by since the last successful market leader was registered. The gold medallists during the period included those returned at 33/1--25/1--16/1--11/1.

 

Kelso: 

General stats: Nicky Henderson held two options on the card earlier in the week and having saddled four of his seven runners at the venue to winning effect in recent times, Nicky’s raiders must be viewed positively.  

Grade 2 novice hurdle event scheduled for 3.35: Three favourites have won via the last eight renewals, though four contests have slipped by since a market leader prevailed.  The seven previous winners had scored at odds of 6/1 or less before last year’s 20/1 gold medallist won on behalf of the layers.

Hunter Chase contest scheduled for 4.45: Three of the four favourites have won thus far, the biggest priced winner being returned at 100/30.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Only one favourite has obliged (three years ago) via eight contests.

 

Newbury: 

General stats: I successfully pinpointed the merits of keeping the Nick Williams runners on your side at the last Newbury meeting and repeat the same advice this time around.

‘Greatwood Gold Cup’ scheduled for 3.10: Eight-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals whilst Paul Nicholls has saddled four of the last six winners.  Paul was responsible for three of the nineteen penultimate stage entries.

Class 3 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 3.45: Six-year-olds have secured five of the last seven contests, with vintage representatives coming to the party on a hat trick this time around.

Two and a quarter-mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.55: Tom George has saddled three of the last four winners and with the stable in great form just now, Tom’s two potential runners are entitled to plenty of respect.

Alan King has saddled two of the three winners to date in the closing bumper event which is scheduled to be contested at 5.30.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Ned Curtis has struck up a good relationship with Clean Bowled and the combination should be worth following in the scheduled 5.05 event.

 

SUNDAY 04/03: 

Huntingdon: 

General stats: David Evans and John Ferguson boast identical 3/6 stats at the venue whilst producing an aggregate LSP (closely matched) figure of sixteen points. Noel Fehily is a jockey to keep on the right side given his recent new contract, not that Noel has a bad record here already with a 23% strike rate to his name.

Two mile maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.10: Favourites have won three of the four contests to date, the biggest priced winner being returned at just 9/4 thus far.

Two mile five furlong handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.10: The biggest priced winner via three renewals to date was sent off as a 4/1 chance, whilst two favourites have prevailed.

Three mile handicap chase contest scheduled for 3.40: Although only one favourite has obliged via three renewals, the trend of ‘fancied’ horses winning is extended to this event as the biggest priced winner returned thus far was a 5/1 chance.

Class 4 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.10: The three winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle scheduled for 4.40: Four of the six available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses starting at 10/1 or more, stats which include both (66/1 & 16/1) winners.

All four favourites have won the closing bumper event which was scheduled to be contested at 5.10.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Martin Keighley has saddled three winners via just seven runners at Sedgefield and the trainer held two options at the time of writing.  His potential raider Junior Jack is one to note as the horse was also entered at Huntingdon on Sunday.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Although two races hardly constitute a ‘trend’, nine-year-olds have secured four of the six available toteplacepot positions, stats which include both (10/1 & 8/1) winners.

Closing bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Alan Swinbank saddled the first two winners of this contest before losing ouit via his beaten odds on favourite twelve months ago.  Alan held just one option (Naburn) this time around, though Donald McCain still had four horses declared at the five-day stage.